Through The Prospect Porthole: The Forgotten

All too often baseball fans casually glance through each teams’ Top 30 Prospect List and assume that these are the only guys that matter; that these are the only ones that are going to make it. Pittsburgh Pirates Fans are no different. And if we are being totally honest, I used to be no different. However, we need to start to understand that not everyone that makes it to the major league team is some highly touted prospect from the moment that he was drafted or some guy that splashes on to the scene and flies up these lists with reckless abandon. Sometimes the guys that end up contributing to your favorite team, in my case the Pirates, are the guys that never make this list, that fly under the radar or that just flat out work hard behind the top prospect curtain to make it.

For many players of this ilk, 2020 brought on some very unique challenges. Without a Minor League Season, no invites to the Alternate Site or aging out of the ability to participate in the Instructional League, there was really nowhere to turn, except inward to their own drive and motivation of continuing to fight for the dream of one day becoming a Major Leaguer.

Some trained at home, others had the opportunity to work out at facilities and a few lived close enough to one another to get in some bullpen sessions and live at bats. In one particular situation Shea Spitzbarth , who the Pirates selected in the Minor League portion of this year’s Rule 5 Draft, signed a waiver to play for Butchy’s Heat in the Mid-Island Men’s League, located close to home in Staten Island, New York; proving that if you love the game, there isn’t anywhere you won’t play.

Now, when you take a quick glance at Jason Martinez’s Depth Chart on Fangraphs, it shows that there are currently at least five Pirates that fit the description of forgotten prospects, with four of them currently slated to begin the year at AAA-Indianapolis; including some who haven’t seen any real life game action since the 2019 baseball season ended.

Robbie Glendinning

In 2019, the former 2017 21st Round Draft Pick from the University of Missouri began the year with the Bradenton Marauders (Pittsburgh’s High A Affiliate) of the Florida State League. Through the first 43 games of the season Robbie slashed .298/.368/.488 with 8 HRs and 16 doubles, which made the decision easy for the Pirates as he was promoted to the Altoona Curve (Pittsburgh’s AA Affiliate) of the Eastern League on June 14th. He celebrated his promotion by going 2 for 5, with a home run and 2 RBI. The rest of June went very well for Glendinning as he was able to maintain his hot streak. July was another story, as he began to slump. For the entire month he only batted .198 with a .530 OPS. Luckily he was able to rebound in the last month of the season to a more solid, but still below average, .261 with a .737 OPS and 5 HRs in AA. Since the end of the season Glendinning has once again returned to his native Australia and the AUBL, where he once again found success; slashing .335/.405/.548 with 7 HRs, 12 doubles and 31 RBIs.

As 2020 began I saw Altoona as the most likely landing spot for Glendinning, but we all know now that conditions around the world had another idea for him; as well as other players in a similar situation. Once the shutdown began he remained at Pirate City, waiting to see how everything would play out. Eventually, as it was with most others, Glendinning returned home to continue the holding pattern; which would end up lasting until December when the AUBL Season finally got under way. However, once it did Glendinning didn’t miss a beat. Through 20 games he has batted .343 with 3 homers, all while maintaining an impressive 15 Ks to 10 BB ratio.

Chris Sharpe

As I have written before, my first interaction with Sharpe came during the 2019 MiLB season when he was playing left field for the Altoona Curve. After making the final out of the half-inning in a double header at the end of June, he threw the ball to my nephew and believe me he couldn’t have been happier. Kids remember that kind of stuff and so do the adults in their lives; it leaves a really good impression.

For those who don’t know, Sharpe was drafted by the Pirates in the 14th round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft from the University of Massachusetts-Lowell. He began his professional career with two years in West Virginia between Short Season A and Low A ball, where had decent stats, but nothing that really jumped off the page. Then in 2019 we appeared to be seeing something a little different. He started to hit at a higher rate, raising his average to .292 in 64 games. With that higher average, power he had only flashed in final year in college began to show itself again as he hit 5 home runs and slugged .451. He was also getting on base more and striking out less; his strike rate dropped from 29.4% the previous year to 19.5% in his time with the Marauders.

Along with his new found success in many of the major batting categories, Sharpe earned a promotion to Altoona approximately a week before I attended the double header with my family. Initially he struggled with the transition only batting .218 for the month of July. However, the power never went away as he hit 11 home runs in 68 games. Following the season Sharpe went on to play 25 games in the Puerto Rican Winter, where it was obvious that he was focusing on working the counts, recognizing pitches, etc. as his strike out rate had also swelled during his transition to AA back up to 26.0, while his walk rate had dropped from his normal average of around 10% down to 6.6%. Little did he know this would be his last experience in a meaningful baseball in what has now been over a year.

Bligh Madris

Madris, another 2017 Draft Pick, earned a promotion to begin the 2019 season to the Altoona Curve (Pittsburgh’s AA Affiliate) of the Eastern League. As he has during this previous years, Madris got off to a pretty hot start. He slashed .309/.323/.415 for the month of April, but then the decline started again as he slashed .176/.293/.212 for the month of May. Through the first two months of the season he only had 1 HR and 11 Extra Base Hits. It looked like he was in for another long year at the plate. However, this time Madris did something that he hadn’t done before; he got himself back on track. Over the remainder of the season his batting hovered around .270, he hit 7 HRs and 25 Extra Base Hits. His strike out rate decreased and his walk rate increased and one thing never changed, his defense. In 118 games and across 1009.1 innings he committed only 3 errors, while his RF/9 rose to 2.26.

In 2020 after a long layoff, Madris joined some of his friends from the Pirates Organization in the AUBL. Through 22 games in his new environment, he is currently slashing .271/.363/.414 with 2 home runs; including the absolute blast you see below.

Hunter Owen

Owen is the only one of the players being discussed who has reached AAA, and wasn’t drafted in 2017. Selected in 25th round of the 2016 draft out of Indiana State University, he excelled at AA-Altoona during 2019. A super utility player (3B/OF/1B) by trade, Owen batted career high .295 and crushed 15 homers in 68 games. Unfortunately this success did not transfer to AAA as he struggled to hit .192 with 5 homers. However, at the time he was also adjusting to a new position due to the fact that there was already a pretty good player at the hot corner.

Much like Sharpe, Owen was left without place to play in 2020, which led to him taking a part time job at a local golf course as he continued to prepare for the next step; that and hitting bombs with the King of Juco, Eric Sim.

Beau Sulser

As the 2019 season began Sulser joined his personal professional pitching coach, Joel Hanrahan, in Altoona, which continued to pay off for yet another 2017 Draft Pick. Halfway through the season he was sporting a 1.99 ERA, had 33 Ks and had a 6-0 record in 19 appearances as a reliever. He even earned a spot in the mid-season Eastern League All-Star Game, where he retired both batters he faced. For Sulser, July was when he was quickly transitioned back into a starting role, which was not the smooth for him at all. I mean it could have been worse, but it didn’t make any sense to make a change to something that was going so well and put him back into a role that he hadn’t filled since his first taste of the pro’s back in 2017 with the Black Bears on Short Season A ball. As a reliever Sulser was 7-1, with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP. As a starter he was 1-2, with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.393 WHIP. When the 2019 baseball season came to an end things didn’t get any better for Sulser after he earned an invitation to the Arizona Fall League, but posted a 3.14 ERA, a 1.605 WHIP and had 13Ks to 9BBs across 14.1 Innings.

After the Minor League Season was cancelled Sulser would ultimately follow Glendinning and Madris to Australia, where he is currently teammates with Glendinning on the Perth Heat as a member of the starting rotation. In 5 starts and 24 innings he has earned a 2.63 ERA and a .917 WHIP, while striking out 23 and only walking 2.

So, where does this leave these five Pirates Prospects, and possibly a few others, heading into 2021? Well, unfortunately none of them found their way onto the Pirates list of 26 Non-Roster Invitees to Major League Spring Training, but that doesn’t mean they won’t eventually be there.

If I had to guess, Jason Martinez is probably spot on with his Minor League assignment projections, although I would hope that Glendinning would join the other four in Indianapolis. Nevertheless, supposing that he ends up in Altoona, I will just have to make more than one trip to see all of them play.

Nobody Wants to Sign With the Pirates

This is something I’ve heard in this town for 30 years now. In fact, even as I sit here trying to force myself to only use my memory I’d have to say Russell Martin has to be the most significant free agent signing.

Maybe Francisco Liriano, but let’s remember that correctly too. He was brought in here with the expectation that he used to be super good and they hoped he had a bit more juice. They didn’t expect him to be the top of the rotation starter he became.

So Russell is the only one I can really say, here’s a legit starting caliber player that other teams want, who actively chose to come here. They probably slightly overpaid for his services, but what he delivered sure made it worth every penny.

So, I get the feeling on this. They just don’t sign big name free agents. And let’s be honest, what we mean here is they don’t sign big money free agents. And right now, why would they?

That said, I’m hearing the same narrative when it comes to players like Felix Hernandez, or go ahead and insert your favorite aging starter who is clearly past his prime. The Pirates need someone who has experience, both from an inning eating standpoint, and simply having some veteran presence in that room. Someone to help Mitch Keller not carry the burden he’ll be asked to bear this season, but be there as someone who once was asked to do the same. Offer guidance, mentorship and ultimately someone who isn’t a coach to tell them what they’re dealing with isn’t exclusive to them.

If they play well, great! Maybe you move them for more prospect depth. If they don’t you let them go. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

The point is, players like this signing elsewhere isn’t on the same plane as swinging and missing on a Mitch Moreland (which I didn’t understand in the first place, but I digress). These are players that know their options are limited.

We hear all kinds of theories as to why this happens in Pittsburgh and here are some of my favorites. It’s too cold here, so nobody wants to play here. They don’t have a chance to win here. Pittsburgh itself is horrifically racist and therefore players of color don’t want to be here.

I’ve really heard all these, and let’s be honest, it’s really all about money.

It’s cold in 2/3 of the markets. 2/3 of the teams have zero chance to win this year. And the last one, I’m a white guy so I’ll steer clear and simply say, I sure hope not.

No, I think it’s far more simple than that. The Pirates don’t want to pay more than market value, and maybe for what they need they’ll have to. It’s a rather large assumption to make that they’ve been rejected by all these players, much more likely they didn’t even offer. This market in 2021 probably shouldn’t be the same as it’s been, but maybe getting what you need versus what is left is the right play.

Typically I’d tell you none of this matters. This team isn’t going to win this year and let’s be blunt, this likely isn’t going to be a great impact on the club. But when the GM himself mentions the want and need to bring in some veteran players to compete and the board keeps dropping names it at the very least seems like he’d rather shop from what’s left than to actively target someone and go get them.

I don’t like that from a flipping perspective, or for that matter a getting the right guy for all those veteran leadership aspects I spoke to earlier. I’d rather them target a guy and get someone worthwhile, but at this point, they’re clearly more interested in waiting, allowing desperation to force some guys into taking two way deals with NRIs to camp.

I get it, just not what I’d do.

At some point, in order to be a successful club after the build, they’ll have to patch holes. That’s when this will really matter. Will they be looking for bargains then or reclamation projects? I’m not expecting Mookie Betts, but they must be able to entice players like Corey Dickerson. Those types of players only coming here via trade depletes the system and puts them back in the same spot.

For all the hoops and tricks they’ve taken to acquire talent in the system, I’d advise they don’t deplete it to save a few bucks when the time comes.

As Pirates Fans Look To The Future, The Team Still Has To Live In Present

If you take a minute to look at or listen to news and information concerning the Pittsburgh Pirates on social media, in articles and blogs and on any number of podcasts, it may take you a little while to find more than a couple of details concerning any player that will take the field for the ball club in 2021, other than Ke’Bryan Hayes; especially with many of the major publications releasing their top prospect lists over the past week or so and the very recent announcement of the Non-Roster Invitees to Major League Spring Training. Fans, experts, journalists and amateur commentators a like have become enthralled with the potential candidates for the young core of the future, even ones that have yet to be acquired by the Pirates Organization as part of the 2021, and in some instances the 2022 draft.

I am guilty of much of this myself, as Quinn Priester has continued to climb the rankings of many professionals thanks to the impression he left on scouts across baseball while at the Alternate Site in Altoona and during Instructional League play, video sessions involving pitcher Brennan Malone and others are almost continuously posted, breakdowns and assessments of the most recent trade acquisitions have been repeated ad nauseam and estimations as to where a multitude of players will begin the season are tossed back and forth; along with a near endless list of other topics concerning Pirates Prospects, or the Young Bucs moniker they are starting to be affectionately known by.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with any of this. The Pirates Prospects, all of them, are extremely important to organization; particularly their development under the recently instituted “player-centric” philosophy, as well as the tutelage of numerous newly minted staff members. Over the upcoming months, and truthfully years, eyes and ears, mine included will be regularly drawn to the happenings in Indianapolis, Altoona, Greensboro, Bradenton and beyond. And I’m positive part of Cherington’s attention will drift to the farm system as well because it is only natural, in addition to being necessary. However, he does not have the luxury of totally ignoring much of what will be taking place at the Major League level, as many fans have claimed they will, due to the underwhelming product that will more than likely be put on the field outside of a couple of bright spots and bounce back candidates.

Manager Derek Shelton’s concerns on the other hand are fully vested in the players that will be placed before him; the good, the bad and hopefully not too much of the ugly. Of course he will have cursory knowledge of the players who are making their way up through the system, most notably the ones teetering between AAA success and a place on the Major League Roster; however, this will be the extent.

For Cherington and Shelton, as well as members of his coaching staff, they won’t have the option of only observing the growth of players like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller or the progress that Bryan Reynolds will hopefully be making to get as close as he can to his 2019 form in the box, while maintaining the defensive prowess he exhibited just last year. They will be in charge of overseeing Colin Moran’s first full season at first base as he tries to maintain his increase in power, the position battle between the light hitting shortstop trio of Cole Tucker, Erik Gonzalez and Kevin Newman, the last hurrah of a largely underperforming and often injured Gregory Polanco, a mostly inexperienced and/or inconsistent pitching staff and pretty much anything a team that currently has around a 1% of winning the World Series.

Sure, a diehard Pittsburgh Pirates Fan will tune into most, if not all games that our team plays, but Cherington, Shelton and crew have to watch, study, evaluate and make decisions on all aspects of the game, individual players and in some instances every single solitary pitch; all while trying to find willing trade partners and free agents, combing the waiver wire, setting daily lineups, making roster decisions, preparing for the 2021 draft and juggling a host of other responsibilities.

If you take the time to think, it’s actually pretty easy, and fun at times, for fans to hope in and look toward the future as their team is stacking top prospects; contrarily, the Pirates are forced to exist in the here and now.

Bucs In the Basement – Why The Pirates Season Will Start On Time

MLB’s owners can try to delay the start of the season, but their real motivations and lack of options will find them losing this battle. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 players on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospect List, and it creates quite the future core. Craig Toth writes for Inside The Bucs Basement, while his buddy Chris sits at a basement bar speaking his mind. Listen as they get drunk with power at a 9-foot basement bar talking Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. It’s “30 Minutes Of Bucs” and THE Pirates Fan Podcast called Bucs In The Basement! #Pittsburgh #Pirates #Podcast

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-8ghcy-f96a36

Confession Time – I’m Sincerely Excited for Quinn Priester

I try to temper my enthusiasm for prospects, it’s just good practice both for writing about the team and for that matter being a fan. First of all, rarely do prospects reach MLB and become transformative players, well, at least in Pittsburgh anyway. And on top of that it’s an incredibly long road filled with obstacles and pitfalls, many of which aren’t controllable. All that said, Quinn Priester is the real deal and rather than wondering if he’ll get here, I’m more focused on when.

You don’t have to take it from me.

As we’ve said multiple times, we don’t really know what the instructs mean, but everyone from Fangraphs on down is enamored with what Mr. Priester got done there last season.

In this business, there is reading what one expert has to say and parroting it and then there is something like this, where I spend an hour looking for someone who doesn’t feel the same and give up.

I went to his first game as a member of the West Virginia Black Bears in State College against the Spikes. He only pitched four innings and gave up three runs on three hits and four walks. He even hit a guy.

It was his first game at a new level, I didn’t expect brilliance, what I wanted to see were the pitch mix, the control, the power, and I got to see all that in the form of his 4 strikeouts.

These weren’t just blowing the fastball past everyone, no these came from a stubbornness to stick with his Curveball that had completely abandoned him early in the contest. It was the mental toughness to identify what he was doing wrong and course correct right there in the contest.

Funny thing is, it was total dumb luck I was there. I was in State College on business and was going to check out the Spikes and Black Bears anyway, Priester was an unannounced starter for this game, and I remember calling my wife like I just won the lottery.

He can hit the upper 90’s with his 4 seam fastball that rides movement with it. His mid 90’s 2 seam induces ground balls and falls away from lefties and bruises ankles on righties. His Curveball drops the velocity down to 80 has a great plane and will be his primary out pitch. More than anything though, his maturity stood out to me.

When you watch minor league baseball with regularity you teach yourself to look for nuggets. Like you may observe some bad mechanics or poor results, but you watch them through the lens of understanding those wrinkles will get ironed out. After all if they were MLB players they wouldn’t be in MiLB.

Priester left me feeling like he learned a ton in that one contest. In 4 innings I watched a guy have almost no control and miss almost all his spots, evolve himself into looking like he’d dominate the league by the end.

I guess what I’m saying here is, it’s ok to be excited about this guy, he’s worth it, and he’s as real as real gets.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 2-1-21

It feels like we just flipped the calendar to 2021 and here we are in February already. We should be ramping up for and starting to cover the pitchers and catchers as they report to Spring Training, but of course MLB is still arguing this out.

The Pirates made news this week by simply not making any trades as bad as Colorado did. It’s one thing to trade veteran players, it’s another entirely to give up an all world player, probable future HOF player for crumbs AND pay 50 million for the privilege.

Let me drive this home. The Pirates got more for Jameson Taillon. The Pirates got more for Joe Musgrove by far. Even if eating some of his salary was the only way to get this done, even if he has opt outs baked in, he has to return a package of prospects better than what he netted. Appalling move.

Baseball loves to blame the individual franchises when things like this happen (although this might be the worst I’ve ever seen) rather than point the finger back at the system that created it.

So, before I go on a rant and write an entire article before the Five Thoughts, let’s dig in.

1. Should the Pirates Pay to Unload Polanco?

The Bucs have one player who makes real money, Gregory Polanco. At 11.5 million, he’s by far the highest paid Pirate and all he’s owed after the season is 3 million to buy him out.

He’ll cost them a total of 14.5 million to get him off the books. That’s just a straight cost. If they cut him today, that would be the price tag.

Now, here’s a guy who even if he stinks (good bet right) will give you 20 homeruns, his average will underwhelm. His plate discipline will prevent him from being the clean up hitter, but his power will tempt them.

At the trade deadline, he would cost another team roughly 4.5 million in salary for the remainder of the season and then the 3 million they would owe to buy him out. So a total of 7.5ish would be the total expenditure for a buyer.

My answer to this question is simple, the Pirates should actively consider offering to throw in the 3 million. They’d have to pay it if they don’t find a buyer anyway, and if that equates to buying a prospect, so be it.

Anything more than that and I can’t get there. Now if he shows up and looks like even 2018 Polanco, all bets are off, it goes back to a seller’s market and all thoughts of helping the deal along by paying part of his salary go out the window.

Don’t miss a trick, but also don’t out think yourself.

2. Why Did the Cubs Sign Trevor Williams?

Well, he’s cheap. At 2.5 million Williams is hardly a risk and veteran pitchers have a role to fill on almost every club. They certainly don’t believe they’ve signed Max Scherzer, but every club needs to eat innings. I suggest from personal experience there are better options out there for serving that purpose, but again, low risk.

Put it in context though, they probably could have had Jon Lester for 5 million, I mean that’s what he signed for in Washington. Why they wouldn’t just go in that direction, we may never know, but the answer is eating innings. Even if you lose 100 games (which Chicago is in no danger of as of this writing) those innings still need dealt with.

It’s exactly why the Pirates will do the same. Now why didn’t they just keep someone they had under control? He was going to get more than that in arbitration, and simply put, he isn’t worth that. On top of that, as I mentioned earlier, he doesn’t eat innings.

3. Miguel Yajure Might Actually Be a Good “Now” Move

He was the big get in the Jameson Taillon deal to the Yankees, and he’s impressive. Miguel Yajure will be in the mix to take command of a spot in the rotation and he could actually give us a glimpse of the power arms being amassed in the lower levels.

These videos don’t tell the whole story. They show movement, power and control, but they also show a plastic cutout who isn’t going to swing. Please don’t assume I’m enamored by these couple pitches. But this isn’t some fringe guy who the Pirates might be forced to use, this is a real prospect, with very real pedigree who might just show he belongs.

It’s ok to be excited about that, and it’s also fair to question if he’s that good why would the Yankees roll the dice on Taillon instead? Well, despite the injuries, Taillon has shown he can pitch at this level. They aren’t evaluating a skill set, they’re evaluating a guy who has thrown more than 7 innings against MLB hitting.

To get a guy like this in exchange was nice, to get 3 more prospects on top of that, is awesome.

4. Top Pick in 2022?

First of all, I really wish yinz weren’t already doing this. I’ve said before I don’t believe in tanking in baseball. It’s a side affect of stinking, but targeting it is quite something different.

We don’t even know the final rosters yet. For instance if you has asked me last week I’d have said they only had Arizona as a competitor, now I have to toss the Rockies in there too, and that’s just the National League. Take a division like the AL Central, the Twins, KC, Sox are all legit contenders for the title, The Tigers are starting to reap the benefits of their long term rebuild and the Indians sold off. The Indians head to head with the Pirates are still better, but you must account for the beating they could take in their own division.

Baltimore has the same issue, if not worse. All while the NL Central is down everywhere but St. Louis. Now, they could be that bad anyway, but I hardly think they have the inside track. Even last season the Rangers came out of nowhere to compete for the top pick in 2021.

Point is, we won’t know if this is there for the taking for quite some time. As I said last year, if this is the bright spot that helps you get through, enjoy.

5. So What’s Going on With the Start of the Season?

MLB proposed a one month delay to the union. The highlights are DH in the NL, Expanded playoffs, Shortened season of 154 games, zero pay reduction for the players.

Sounds pretty damn good right? Well as most leaks are designed, it was supposed to.

Here’s why the players will ultimately balk. The cut back in games with no pay reduction amounts to around a 5% pay raise for players. Again, why would they not like that right? Well, it’s MLB’s way of getting the players to accept more playoff games with no additional piece of the pie.

There is nothing that either side does from here on out that isn’t soaked in the upcoming negotiation of the CBA. I’m not old, but I’m old enough to remember every CBA negotiation is going to be a bloodbath. Fans in certain markets get excited about change finally coming to the economic system, and most of the time it amounts to very little.

This time, economics are on the table and I’ll try to explain why here and maybe I’ll write a deeper piece on this soon.

The Players Want:
1. Bigger Piece of the Pie – Now the biggest problem there is, they have no faith that they know how big the pie is. See in the NFL or NHL the players know the exact amount of total revenue they get vs ownership. So if you negotiate an extra percentage point, that translates into real dollars. And the reason that works is they have a cap, so those dollars are forced to be spent to a certain degree. The players don’t want a cap. Essentially, they want the books open, but don’t want the reason books get opened implemented.

2. Universal DH – This gets them more permanent players and technically a bigger slice of the pie. Starting to catch a theme?

3. A higher luxury tax – Here’s the funny thing, the players don’t even realize this is a soft cap, and why would they, up until 2019 the teams who could afford to approach it never cared. They do now, and it’s costing veteran jobs.

4. Restructuring of Rookie Deals – The players want to get to free agency more quickly and Super 2 will be their main target. They’ll also want to reduce arbitration years from 3 to 2, something along those lines. Maybe they’ll even try to target rookie deals themselves down from 3 to 2. This would send 2/3 of the owners screaming at the clouds.

The Owners Want:
1. Cost Control – And I wish I could tell you this meant they were smart enough to be talking about a cap. It’s not as though they are unaware of the idea, it’s that it’s become such a sacred cow, such a non-starter with the players that they almost take it off the table themselves. They’ll want to achieve this by discussing things like non-guaranteed contracts, or signing bonuses that don’t count toward the luxury tax.

2. Expanded Playoffs – They want this as a standard, and the players do too, they just want paid for it.

3. More or Less Revenue Sharing – There is a split here, some want more, some want less, some want a lower tax threshold to cut down on the gap. Again, there is something that could get all this done.

What Nobody Discusses
1. MiLB inclusion in the union – Some form of this should be on the table. Attracting young talent to the game will suffer if the road to the show doesn’t stop feeling like a 5 or 6 year roll of the dice, and that comes with representation. It’s a big undertaking but there is a groundswell, and rumor has it MiLB will at least be represented at the negotiation table.

Question of the Week

This week’s question comes from Garrett Dockter on Facebook – Dude! Thank you for not bashing! I would love to hear your perspective! Will we stay with playing this trade game? Is their a glimmer of a 5 year plan yet?

First, thanks Garrett, we really try to be fair here, hell we built it into our home page. Doesn’t mean we’re shiny happy people about everything, but we like to look at subjects through that lens.

Now, Yes, they’ll stay with the trade game. They may not be done yet this season, but as I’ve said before, follow the control. They have two years left on Brault, Frazier and Kuhl, those are the most likely candidates. It’s not about money, it’s about how long they’ll be here and do they factor into the window this club sees themselves setting up for.

Next season Colin Moran will be a hot name, again, he won’t be here for the window.

Five year plan gives me headaches. Bad memories. No, they have no X amount of years plan, but that doesn’t mean we can’t guess. I said follow the control for trades, well follow the ETAs for pitching to see the window.

2023-2024 the Pirates will have barring injury a top end Starting rotation with pedigree. Priester, Malone, (Maybe Rocker), Thomas, Mlodzinski, Jones, and I’m not even mentioning pitchers like Yajure, Keller or Brubaker who are here or about to be.

Follow the pitching. That’s the most expensive thing in the league and its the guide to prying the window open.

Pirates are Incredibly Young, with Nothing Expected from Them

It’s the goal if we’re honest with ourselves. The method of build GMBC has undertaken requires it. Get young, do it fast, and let it grow. I’ve described the organization he inherited as a failed rebuild before because having so little money committed and already being young is in and of itself a really odd situation.

We often say and see others say similar, that this is the only choice they have. This is the only chance they have to win in this market.

Well, I’m here to tell you, while I think this is the best method, they certainly didn’t have to go this way. I should also warn you, I’m a team building process geek in case you couldn’t tell, and I find the different methods out there fascinating. Let’s look at some other ways the Bucs could have gone and see if after that you agree with what they’ve done, or think another method would have been better.

Let’s also keep in mind the goal is winning at some point, not making you feel they ‘tried’ in 2021.

Full Rebuild (AKA Build, AKA Whatever)

I’m making a little joke here, and I’ve heard it described as Cherington feeling the word doesn’t apply because it denotes he has already built, to in fact “re” build.

Who cares. Call it what you want, but for our purposes, we’ll call it full rebuild.

With this method you sell off anyone and everyone in an effort to bring in as many high end prospects as possible. Ideally you get as much of this done at one time as possible because if you don’t it becomes another method that I’ll touch on later.

Again, ideally, you have a crop of valuable veteran players who command the kind of talent you’re seeking in return and this is exactly why this particular method typically takes quite some time. Sellable, high end talent tends to come young. The rebuilding team assumes the risk that these prospects will or won’t make it to MLB. They also assume the risk that no matter how good they look, making the show and contributing is a win, so to be successful, you need a ton. The other team assumes the risk that the fading control of the player they just acquired will be enough to get them over the bar.

Boiled down, it’s an all out talent acquisition effort, and to do it right you must fully abandon the idea that today matters beyond the few players you’ve identified as part of the answer.

Let’s look at the White Sox, the most recent team to experience the fruits of a rebuild. Years ago they decided of all the players they had like Chris Sale, Quintana, Eaton, that Tim Anderson was the guy. Anderson was who they would build around and they went about their work.

Not much different than what the Pirates have done really. They’ve got a few players you get the impression they’d like to build around like Hayes, Keller or Reynolds, but they certainly didn’t have a Chris Sale to move. Surprisingly the Eaton deal is really where they accelerated this build along with heavy investment in the International signing period. Sound familiar?

What the Sox are doing right now is actually beyond the build. It’s the next step and the one that rightly Pirates fans struggle to believe will happen. There are other ways to handle it when you get to this stage, and we’ll talk about that a bit too.

The Sell and Patch Method

Building the system for the future is all about gathering prospects and while that fact doesn’t change, how you handle the present certainly does.

Some teams could call this a retool, but that’s different to me. This is a path that you sell off players just as we discussed but you also don’t shy away from picking up quality players in free agency to give yourself more sellable assets, and while you’re at it provide your fans with more fun to watch in the season.

The Joc Pederson signing in Chicago is a perfect example. The Cubs are in the middle of realizing they’re window is closing. They’ve moved some high end talent out, and more to come certainly, so why sign a guy like Joc? I mean why not just keep Kyle Schwarber instead for a couple extra million? Well, what Kyle was going to get in arbitration they felt wasn’t moveable, while Joc is. They’re stuck in a weird spot with Kris Bryant too, because he won’t sign an extension, has been injury prone, and makes 19.5 million dollars. They couldn’t just let him walk, but finding a team to take that salary and send back anything worth much is at the very least a slim market. They also need to make some decision on Anthony Rizzo who sits at 16.5 million and is a free agent at year’s end. Extend, or move. If they extend him, he won’t be the player he is by the time the rebuild is done, if they don’t extend him another big chip walks for nothing.

And none of this touches their lack of pitching. For a team like Chicago, it makes potentially more sense to bring in a guy like Joc, try to have a passable offense that shines a bright light on their two big pieces to try to move them at the deadline when they don’t hit team budgets quite so badly.

The Pirates should and could do something very similar. They’ve exhausted most of what they’re willing to admit won’t be here for a winning club with the exception of Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault potentially. So in order to not slow the stocking process, a good play might be to bring some chips in. Picking up veterans on affordable contracts who they can sell for pieces isn’t about trying to pretend they’ve replaced Bell or Musgrove, it’s about making extra sure they didn’t part with them without making it count.

In 2019 the Pirates signed Jordan Lyles to a one year deal. He had been a reliever and the Pirates offered him a chance to start. To his credit, he took advantage and performed well, at some points actually being the most reliable arm in the rotation. The Pirates flipped him to the Brewers for Cody Ponce, who we just saw last year get a couple shots and he’ll be in the mix this season too. Perfect example of using free agents by way of getting prospects.

Just Stink Baby

I think Detroit is very close to showing this can work a couple times. They did it before and while they didn’t win it all, the Miggy led group was the class of the AL Central for a while. Well, here we sit in 2021 and the Tigers have something brewing over there.

It’s the longest of long plays. They long since moved everyone they could, nobody wants Miggy for what he makes and how he’s declined at this point. So they just stunk their way into top pick after top pick. Even this season they’ll pick number 3.

Not fun for fans, in any way, but the future couldn’t possibly be more apparent, the Tigers will be back in the game relatively soon. And they’ll be in position to use their Miggy money to lock up at least one or two of them very long term.

It’s been a long road, but it might just pay off.

Burn it Down

Believe it or not, it get’s more aggressive than what the Pirates have done so far. Remember the Marlins? They’ve done this a few times, one time it provided Detroit with the very albatross they have as their DH right now, Miggy. And more recently they moved a young Christian Yelich with a ton of control to Milwaukee to become their new face.

This would be like the Pirates having Reynolds, Hayes and Keller as feature chips right now. In other words, they believe they’re so far away that even the players who have 5 years of control aren’t likely to be part of a winning club. At least right now, the Pirates don’t seem to think they’re there.

Hey, who are we to argue, the Marlins have won it all more recently than the Pirates right? That doesn’t mean that’s the path that needs taken, it just means there is a level deeper that this team hasn’t gone to.

The Pirates of the Past

What the Pirates have done in the past is wait until they were in forced positions. For instance, nobody that was traded this season had to be. They all had control beyond this season, and make no mistake, the Pirates would be better for having them, well, in 2021 anyway. But shave a year of control off all of those guys and the returns are halved, if not more.

Being afraid to really go all in on building creates trades like Cole to Houston. Not recognizing where your team really is leads to trades like Archer to Pittsburgh. Not being honest about the players themselves creates overvaluing and more than anything it creates a team that always finishes middle to below middle and never brings in that top tier talent via the draft.

It’s a constant state of spinning your wheels.

We’ve seen this method, it’s played out here since 2016 in the form of ‘bridge years’, or retooling. I’ve seen enough of that.

Even all the way back to Bonds leaving and the Pirates selling us Jeff King as a drop in star replacement. Enough.

If you really want to understand how some people can see what’s happening now as a positive, this is why. Because to many of us, we recognize there is no path to the top for this club that doesn’t first start at step one.

Welcome to that process, because that is very much so where they are, and more trades will come before 2022.

What Should We Pirates Fans Look for in 2021?

The easy answer is a bunch of losses, and I’m sure that’ll be most of the responses to this piece, but because the bottom rung is still part of the ladder, let’s look at some things we can legitimately look forward to this season.

Play the Young Guys

By default, yes. There is going to be quite a bit of youth on display, especially on the mound and that will really be interesting. They have two more guys who probably have no place in the window, Brault and Kuhl, but Brubaker, Keller and any of a number of candidates for the fifth spot have plenty of control left to fit squarely in the picture too.

So, we really could be seeing an audition for some arms who could really play a role here when it matters. If you understand the development path of high end pitching, which I like to think most of you do, you’ve seen Keller take a couple steps. He struggled first, which happens a ton to these guys. They have had better stuff than almost everyone they faced coming up and suddenly, they aren’t untouchable by 6 of the 9 guys in any given lineup. That takes a minute to process, and we saw him fight through that in 2020 to take control of every at bat himself. It lead to the next stage for these types of prospects, and I call it the all or nothing paradox. The stuff plays so well they can simply hunt strikeouts, problem is, it leads to walks too. Now in his third partial season I expect to see him start to understand, he can’t have all the walks, and things will start to balance out. He won’t be a superstar after 2021, but I think he’ll be someone you truly see leading the charge moving forward.

And yes, at some point I think they’ll look to extend him.

Bounce Backs

It’s really easy to look at the players we watched in 2020 and believe they’re all trash but the Pirates have a few candidates.

Bryan Reynolds will be back, and he won’t suck. In fact, I’d bet during this season he’ll remind us the Pirates in no way traded their best player this off season. He’s a great candidate for bounce back if only because he’s never had anywhere close to that kind of stretch, let alone season.

Colin Moran has been improving year over year for the most part and last year he really showed more power consistency early. Maybe this isn’t as much a bounce back as an emergence, but Colin will prove himself valuable as a first baseman in this league. And it’ll lead to him being the biggest chip they have outside of Kuhl and Brault come next off season, labor agreement permitting of course.

Kevin Newman’s analytics tell you he should be way less than his 2019, but that doesn’t mean he has to fall off the table entirely. He still has pedigree and still has a role to play here. I’d love to see the Bucs plant him at second base and go from there, because even if you think he isn’t part of the future, playing well and making himself marketable indirectly is part of the future.

Decisions on Players

Cole Tucker is an enigma. He’s never really hit, not like a first rounder, at any level. Can he show what he is this season? Do they legitimately give him a shot to win the SS job? Can his bat give him even a shot at being part of this club with the flood of prospects sure to be here in the near future? Now is the time to find out. I see no benefit in pretending Gonzalez is anything more than a nice glove to bounce around. The world needs players like that too, but finding out what Tucker is needs to be a huge priority in 2021.

Chad Kuhl needs to show he’s fully recovered. And let’s be honest, if that means he’s a starter, he’s gonna get traded. If it turns out a fully healthy Chad still can’t get past 5 innings with regularity, they may need to admit he’s a bullpen arm. That’s the big decision with Kuhl. Stuff has never been his issue, stuff that plays against lefty batters has been, controlling his pitch count has been. If you’re going to be a starter those are two hang ups you can’t afford.

Can Steven Brault be consistent? He has good in him and lord knows this team needs a lefty in the rotation, but he still suffers from the blow up games in between completely impressive outings, and honestly, that’s fine for a borderline 5-6 rotation piece. Time to find out if Steven will ever be more than that.

Continue to Grow

Ke’Bryan Hayes is not going to match his numbers from 2020. If he does, kiss him goodbye. Don’t bother buying the jersey. If you’re going to cry about that autographed ball you bought, don’t buy one.

Reality says, he had an incredible start to his career, but c’mon, he’s not Ted Williams, he’ll come back to earth.

So how can he continue to grow then if he won’t be as good as he was last year? Simple, he can show how he handles adversity. How does he handle the inevitable slump? Does he bring it with him to the field? Does he let the pressure of batting in the heart of the order change him?

Does he sacrifice the gap power to try to hit more homeruns? Sometimes growth is pushing back when the league makes it’s first move.

In other words, I don’t expect him to put together 150 games with 2020’s numbers, I expect him to look like he belongs and put together a strong rookie campaign.

JT Brubaker is another guy I really think has room before hitting his ceiling. If he can improve control of his breaking stuff, even just a tick, Brubaker will show why he was ahead of Keller on the way up through the system. He’s got the poise, and he’ll get the opportunity, really excited to see what he does with it.

Swaggerty to the Rescue! Yeah, Let’s Slow Down a Bit

Travis Swaggerty was drafted in 2018 in the first round by the Pittsburgh Pirates and of course that comes with expectation. Some of that expectation is related to his first round selection, some of it is based on who made the selection and his, um, track record of success.

I’ve heard Swaggerty suggested as a player to watch for making the Pirates this season, by people I truly respect, and I have to say, I don’t see it. Like not even a little.

He’s not played above A ball yet, and as thin as the organization is in the outfield, that doesn’t warrant believing he’ll slide right through AA and AAA all in just a few months to make his debut in Pittsburgh.

And let me be abundantly clear, even if the implication was he could be a September call up, no. There is just nothing that leads me to believe he’s close.

And none of this for me is about him being a bust or whatever label you want to assign, it’s about a guy who probably would have played in AA last season, but lost out on that due to the pandemic. A guy who did well at the Altoona training site, whatever that really means, but in no way does that mean he’s skipping AA. It also doesn’t mean he only has to stop there for a month.

He’s played two professional seasons (Two WV short and full seasons) and one in Bradenton. His career BA is .257 and a .339 OBP in a little over 650 ABs. If this wasn’t a first round pick, you might not know his name.

Again, none of that is to say he’s a bust, or can’t get better, I expect him to improve, but those aren’t the numbers of someone poised to skyrocket through the system either. Maybe it’s because he’s listed as one of the Pirates top prospects, listed as number 7 that of course could lead one to believe he’s right around the corner. But, again, slow down, newly acquired Hudson Head is number 6 and he’s probably farther away.

Maybe it’s the Pirates obvious need for outfield help, but rushing or potentially damaging a first round pick to plug a hole on the MLB roster isn’t something I’d advise.

I’ve heard from the plethora of local ‘experts’ who’ve studied Ben Cherington’s career, especially in Boston and they love to tell me he flies people through development. I saw some of that too, but is Swaggerty like Mookie Betts? Clearly not.

Swaggerty is a real option for this team in 2022, and probably not right out of Spring. That’s realistic. Anything faster and he’ll have to do a lot more than he has to see it happen. I’m in no way saying he’s incapable, but man, somehow imagining he’s in the mix for this year is wishful thinking, and I can’t for the life of me see what it’s based in beyond hope.

I get it, at some point you want to turn the page and start to see the future begin to arrive. Rather than dwell on what we’ve lost, we can dwell on what we’re moving toward by seeing some of those players start to get their feet wet.

If they earn that, I’m all for it, but if you rush it, you and indeed the player will regret it. Especially if you’re a person who believes this club will cultivate talent and move it right away when it starts costing money. There’s a ton of evidence they extend people with regularity, but for this conversation, I’ll pretend you’re dead on. Why would you want to rush people to MLB before they’re ready? Even if they stumble and fight through it to learn on the job, you’ll burn a year of cheap control and for what? To have another player who looks like he doesn’t belong on an already bad team?

I’m probably being ignorant a bit by picking out one guy here, but this goes for other players too like Mason Martin, or Cody Bolton, maybe even O’Neil Cruz who admittedly is closer.

I just wrote the other day about the lost year of development, and while I understand players will react differently to that event, let’s not lose our minds and start expecting that the levels in MiLB are little more than puddles to leap. They’re very real steps in competition, expectation and overall development that matter. For every Bryce Harper who jumps right to MLB there are 1000 guys who take 4 years to develop, if they ever do.

Take a deep breath and understand ETAs for prospects are quite literally educated guesses at best.

The Pirates $3 Million In Financial Commitments

Historically the Pittsburgh Pirates almost always a bottom five payroll in Major League Baseball, especially over the past 25 years or so. Robert Nutting is a cheap owner, which is known by everyone around the league. Over the past three months the Pirates have cut approximately $27 to $29 off their projected payroll by not picking up Chris Archer’s option, designating Trevor Williams for assignment and most recently trading Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon. Of course this does not take into the consideration the money that will have to be spent on players that fill their roster spots, but we all know that this will be a pittance compared to the salaries that some of these guys could have earned. Now it is being rumored that Adam Frazier and his $4.3 salary could be on the move.

However, none of these inarguable statements have even been the focus of the latest in the line of what can only be described as jumping on an already overflowing dog pile or picking from the lowest hanging fruit, that has has actually been on the ground molding for some time at this point. On Wednesday morning ESPN’s MLB Insider Buster Olney tweeted out the Pirates’ financial commitments beyond the 2021 season.

He is correct that if the Pirates choose to decline Gregory Polanco’s option for 2022, the will only owe him $3 million and will not be on the hook to anyone else; outside of the arbitration eligible players they could tender contracts to during the 2021-22 off-season, but none of those are actually guaranteed. And if we are getting technical, neither is Polanco’s if they somehow find a trade partner for him between now and November. At that point the Pirates wouldn’t owe anybody anything.

To many this may not really mean anything beyond the first few points I made about low payroll, a cheap owner and cutting costs on the field, but realistically it should. With Polanco’s contract coming off the books it signifies that General Ben Cherington no longer has to be saddled by any of his predecessors contracts, particularly one as bad as El Coffee’s has turned out to be. Gone are the discussions of playing time being handed to someone for financial reasons, which has often thrown a wrench in Cherington and Manager Derek Shelton’s alleged mission of creating a meritocracy.

So, where does all that money go now? The easy answer is to player extensions, or Nutting’s Wallet if I know some of my audience. But in all seriousness, extensions are something I have been in favor of since before the 2020 season, as well as during it, and truthfully still am to this day. After Ke’Bryan Hayes had played exactly one game in the majors, I wrote about extending him. This was not some fanboy reaction to the excitement of a young and fun player making his MLB debut. It was a calculated risk versus reward decision based on the floor of a player who could provide the WAR of an everyday player based on his defense alone.

Another answer would be free agency; and before you laugh I am talking about the Russell Martin type signing when the Pirates are hopefully closer to actually competing in 2023, 2024 or 2025. With financial flexibility, compiled with a cheap owner and on the field improvement this category of acquisition becomes more likely and makes a lot more sense at that time rather than in 2021.

Or maybe Cherington ends up just letting all of the Pirates play out their years of control until it is finally time to trade them with no actual financial commitments; not that I think this is likely or would be very productive. Nonetheless, you know what else is not extremely useful? Worrying about how much money the Pittsburgh Pirates have attached to their players in 2022.