Starter Spotlight: Get Ready For Fedde

4-9-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Heading into a rubber match with the Cardinals, the Bucs send out Mitch Keller to face Erick Fedde, who has had two starts – one great and one really awful – as he enters play today with a 7.00 ERA through his first 9 innings pitched thus far.

He stifled Bucs bats last time around, holding the Pirates to just 1 run off 4 hits and 1 walk over 6 innings while striking out 3.

This was part of his comeback season last year – his first MLB campaign following his KBO MVP win in 2023 – posting a combined 3.30 ERA and 5.6 bWAR between the White Sox and Cardinals.

I previewed it previously but Fedde offers a pitch mix comprised of a cutter and sinker in the low-90s with a low-80s sweeper and high-80s changeup with all his options having induced break of above average “rise” for opposing hitters.

He works the cutter as his main pitch against lefties down and away, utilizing the sinker/sweeper combination more against right-handed hitters low and inside, adding the changeup less frequently and thrown to the glove-side.

He’s not going to strike out a ton of batters, relying on pitch-to-contact approach, changing speeds and utilizing the plus defense behind him to get outs.

Look to attack the bottom third of the zone and try to cover that area early. Force him to work more up in the zone where he may be more susceptible to making mistakes hanging pitches.

Chance for a series win against a softer starter than yesterday. Bucs bats need to be ready to pounce when they get the chance and get the bats heating back up.

Starter Spotlight: Gray Clouds to Blue Skies

4-8-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With Paul Skenes set to start for the Pirates today, you always have to feel good about your chances of winning but opposing him is no slouch as Sonny Gray will toe the rubber for the Cardinals in Game 2 of the series.

A familiar foe for the Bucs, Gray has started against Pittsburgh 11 times across his career, posting a 4.20 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 17 walks through 64.1 innings.

His most recent outing came on September 18th when he was unable to get out of the 6th inning, allowing 4 runs off 9 hits with 8 Ks and no walks in his final start of the 2024 campaign.

We have covered Gray previously ahead of both his outings last year (see here and here) but big thing to know about him is that he attacks the strike zone and misses bats.

Since the start of 2024, only a pair of Cy Young winners have a better K-BB rate among qualified pitchers in that span.

The veteran’s sophomore Cardinals season is off to a slower start this season, holding a 5.73 ERA over his first two starts but the stuff is still there as he has 15 strikeouts to just 3 walks in that stretch.

Gray’s fastball isn’t going to light up the radar gun – as it averages around 92 MPH – but it places it effectively and mixes in his mid-80s sweeper and high-70s curve, which he locates on the edges and gets chases when he drops out of the zone.

Given this pitching matchup and predicted temperature at start of game tonight expected to be in the low-30s, I imagine this could be a very low-scoring game. 

Try to work counts against Gray to get him out as early as possible to take shots against the struggling St. Louis bullpen.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – NL Central Play Begins

4-7-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Vladimir Lenin is someone I’d never look to for advice, but he does have a quote that to me really sums up this start for the Pirates… “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

It’s been a hell of a start to the season.

1. What a Start it’s been

The Pirates struggled in Miami and Tampa, and we all expected their series with the Yankees to go a certain way. In other words, we were braced for what we saw. We were also braced for what some of the fans would bring to the stadium, and neither were pleasant.

Through 10 games the Pirates are 3-7, an obviously terrible mark, and there are 5 National League teams with 3 wins or less. The Nationals, Braves (worst record in baseball 1-8), Reds and the Rockies join our Buccos.

The 5-5 Brewers and the 3-7 Pirates have division worst -22 run differentials, in fact, these are league worst marks. At least in part, this comes from playing the Yankees who have an otherworldly +31, even the Dodgers aren’t close to that at +22.

The Reds and Cardinals both clock in at +1 and the Cubs are rocking a +21 with their 7-5 mark. And they had the pleasure of playing the Dodgers.

There’s actually a stat for expected wins and losses too and differential factors in heavily to the formula.

The Central right now goes…

Cubs 7-5
Brewers 5-5
Cardinals 4-5
Reds 3-7
Pirates 3-7

Reconfigure them by X-W/L and well,

Cubs 8-4
Cardinals 5-4
Reds 5-5
Brewers 3-7
Pirates 3-7

I only mention the expected numbers because it cuts through the noise of Bednar lost this, Holderman lost that and cuts right to the heart of shoulda, coulda, woulda. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to sub it for actual results, but this early on, it’s a quick way to see not only are these guys winning, but how comfortably.

This entire week will be against the NL Central, the Cardinals first at home, then onto Cincy for a weekend set.

The Reds start the week coming off 3 straight 1-0 losses, which, well you won’t see it again anytime soon you know? And before we see them, they have to play a series in San Francisco who are 8-1 and leading by percentage points the NL West whom they dropped 2 of 3 against to open the season. The Cardinals swept the Twins to start the season and have only won one game since.

This week will either further muddy the division, or it’ll cement someone as the basement dweller early on. Bigger week than you should ever feel like you have this early, but a 2-4 week and you start to feel like you need rope to ever climb again, especially with the division implications.

2. Tsung-Che Cheng Promoted to MLB

This comes as at least a bit of a surprise and is a direct result of Jared Triolo heading to the IL with lower back issues. For where Triolo is in his career, you lose a glove here, little more. Cheng won’t be able to step in and handle defense quite to the par Triolo has set, but at least based on what Triolo has done so far in 2025, there might just be offensive upside here, IF they let it play out.

Cheng had a tremendous Spring Training, and it means exactly that and nothing more. It’s incredibly difficult to cull any kind of information out of anyone who has been playing in Indianapolis because simply they haven’t played many games due to weather.

He’ll get opportunity to play, but most likely it’ll be to spell Ke’Bryan Hayes or fill in for Adam Frazier or IKF here and there and he brings a lot of the elements offensively that we prayed Ji-Hwan Bae might with more power potential, but this is the very beginning of his journey and frankly I’m at least a little surprised they went this way as opposed to Liover Peguero who already has some MLB time under his belt.

Probably speaks to how they feel about each player right now more than anything, but in many ways for Peguero, you have to ask, if not now, with Yorke, Gonzales and Triolo on the IL, well, when?

No matter what, this kid is either the Pirates #17 or #19 ranked prospect. He is fast, he’s a solid defender and he has offensive potential, but I’ve been watching him a long time, I’ve never seen him play the way he did in Spring Training, maybe his time in Greensboro comes close but he stalled in Altoona last year and earned a very late season call up so he’s been on their radar longer than most of us.

No matter what, welcome to the league kid, lets see what you got.

In my fever dreams, this is my leadoff hitter…

3. Mitch Keller Can’t be a Question

Mitch shoved in his first outing 6.0 innings 1 earned run and then not so much against the Yankees with 3.2 innings, 7 earned runs and a completely uncharacteristic 4 walks.

For the Pirates to get anything done this year, Mitch Keller needs to be every bit the veteran leader of this staff, and that will never come while he’s producing wildly different results game to game.

Yeah, it was the Yankees, and yes, they are hot as hell, but pitching is supposed to be the great equalizer, and when you build your entire path to victory on the backs of what is supposed to be an elite starting rotation, your number 2 better not be Jekyll and Hyde.

He doesn’t need to recreate his 3.91 ERA 2022 numbers, but he does need to get into the very low 4’s and stay there, or I’m sorry, there is no amount of anything this club could do that will get this thing on the rails.

The two lefty’s can shove, the stud ace Skenes can too, but if Keller underwhelms they’ll never function like the unit they purported to be.

He’s not a “bonus” guy. He needs to be a guy you expect a performance from. We’ve seen that in him as he’s evolved, we’ve also seen him surrender the “ace” helm at the mere sight of Mr. Skenes and have a rookie named Jones on an innings restriction plan and injured for part of 2024 pass him in the reliability category too.

Now, if you pay close attention to MLB free agency, all I can say is this is every bit a 15 million dollar pitcher. Factor in the innings, the health he’s shown and his ability to reach brilliance often enough, that’s easily the kind of money he could command on the open market at his age. Next year it’ll be 16 million, then 18 and it finishes in 2028 with a 20 million dollar season.

A Mitch Keller who stays right where he is probably remains worth every penny, but for this to work for Pittsburgh, He needs to wind up a bargain by the time that contract winds down.

He’s got work to do to meet that challenge.

Let’s hope he starts this week.

4. The Cheapest Fix Remains Unfixed

Welp, I’m tapped. I suggested the Pirates use Dennis Santana and Ryan Borucki in the back end of the pen to replace the demoted David Bednar and injured Colin Holderman who were mightily struggling, and in their first save opportunity since we started talking about it, they did exactly that.

They even based it on matchups like I suggested. Borucki got the 9th because the Yankees had 2 lefties coming up.

And yeah, that too failed.

Santana held up his end of the bargain in the 8th, but a couple feet, but I digress. Borucki, not so much, not that he got a ton of defensive help.

Look, a bad outing doesn’t change my mind on a player. It educates it, it moves it forward, it adds on to the bucket of information I have at my fingers, but it doesn’t cause me to think they’re great or awful, at least not when it’s someone I expect something from, don’t make me pretend I saw some path for Miguel Del Pozo or something.

I’d stick with this concept for a bit. I know these players put some kind of magic forcefield around pitching the 9th and to them it’s very much so real that it’s a different thing.

OK, you’re playing, not me, who am I to argue.

Well, if that’s the case, you should probably give people more than one look at it before you decide.

Santana is a fine bullpen pitcher, he’s done well as a Pirates player and I have no issue giving him a shot at it, but they’ve simply got issues beyond that.

Caleb Ferguson has been their best reliever, and while I loved the signing for around 3 million bucks and really thought he’d help, that can’t be your best reliever, just can’t.

All of what I just said about Mitch Keller, well, you start getting to the point where you have to have 7 or 8 innings from every starter for a chance to win, you just aren’t gonna win a lot.

This doesn’t have to turn into a panic move, but it does need addressed. Thing is, this organization still believes David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Kyle Nicolas and others are going to step up…

That’s fine, so long as they do, AND you cut bait and bring in help early enough to matter if they don’t.

This bullpen won’t even get them out of the NL Central basement, let alone .500, not pitching like this.

5. Injuries Are Not Why We’re Here

The injuries are piling up, but they aren’t the reason this team has performed the way they have.

I mean, would they be in better shape if Gonzales, Horwitz, Triolo, Jones and Holderman were all healthy? Maybe, but that’s all it is, maybe. Gonzales needed to break out, Horwitz needs to show his numbers at the MLB level while good can be replicated or improved upon, Triolo can play in the field, but he’s struggled at this level offensively. Jones is a big loss, but the starters by in large haven’t been THE problem, hard to deny it would have improved your 5 man rotation though. Finally, Holderman, when right is a shut down reliever. He was that for the vast majority of last year, but what he’s done this season, hard to pretend that’s a huge loss.

This team is where it is because they didn’t have enough experienced players, and the ones they brought in are a bit too experienced.

You can’t count guys you hoped would do whatever as losses of whatever you hoped they’d produce. It just never works out that way. I mean you can, I can’t. I have to look at what is, and it’s not about blame, it’s about how it shook out regardless of intention.

They entered this year with a ton of reliever options and two gigantic questions at the back end. Brought in some nice pieces but not one alternative to what Bednar was supposed to provide. That was foolish.

Point being, there was never a good mix, unless every thing went exactly right. More than that, some of those things that had to go right, well, they weren’t good bets, and further, they had all offseason and Spring to see the error in their assumptions and chose to ignore them.

This team entered with a ton of 2B options. 1 injury in and Adam Frazier was a full time starter. 3 injuries in and a guy with 11 AAA games under his belt is being called up to backup 75% of your infield.

The Pittsburgh Pirates ladies and gentlemen don’t do enough for a lot of reasons, money chief among them, but more than anything, because they almost always see numbers of viable options as automatically equaling 1 good answer.

6. Bonus: Red Sox trade Quinn Priester to Milwaukee

This is interesting.

The Red Sox sent right-hander Quinn Priester to Milwaukee for prospect Yophery Rodriguez, a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick in this year’s draft and a player to be named later or cash considerations.

This is a lottery ticket, but a solid one. He’s 19 years old and completed a solid Low A season as an 18 year old last year. There is a lot of potential here.

The Brewers paid a heavy price, it’s not easy to pry starting pitching depth away from a team this early in the season, but the Sox loaded up since acquiring Quinn and the Brewers are desperate.

See the Brewers are down to Freddy Peralta as the lone representative of their intended opening day rotation and a long list of guys who aren’t all that close to making it back. Quinn can step right in and at least eat innings.

The Pirates of course moved Priester for Nick Yorke who himself is on the IL now, but on paper, Milwaukee paid more for him than the Sox paid the Pirates.

Again, desperation plays in, but these deals will be compared through the next few years and for a lot of reasons. First, if Quinn catches on, nobody likes being beaten by someone they drafted in the first round and gave up on. Second, just comparing the returns on both of these packages for Priester himself.

I like the Yorke deal, but until it plays out at this level, you certainly can’t call it a win.

Good luck to Quinn, I still think there’s some work there to do, but he’s going to finally get what he really needs to have, a chance to compete for a while. Sink or swim.

Starter Spotlight: Light Up Liberatore

4-7-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Coming off a nice end to an otherwise forgettable weekend series, the Pirates welcome the rival St. Louis Cardinals and southpaw starter, Matthew Liberatore.

The Bucs faced Liberatore last season plating 5 runs off 4 hits and 3 walks in just 3 innings with 3 strikeouts on July 24th.

In his first start this year, the 25-year old Liberatore faced the Los Angeles Angels, pitching 6 strong frames surrendering 3 runs off 6 hits with no walks and 4 strikeouts. 

He relied mainly on his 4-seam and sinker in the mid-90s with his high-80s slider as his put-away pitch, pitching mostly low in the zone and trying to stay on the edges as much as possible.

Liberatore is a pitch-to-contact arm who doesn’t miss a ton of bats and will rely on his above-average defense behind him in order to find success.

As mentioned in the story last year, Liberatore has been much better working out of the bullpen than as a starter, spending the final two months of 2024 in relief and posting a 2.67 ERA over his final 30.1 innings pitched after August 1.

After having to go to the bullpen 8 times to cover 10.2 innings over their two games yesterday, the Cardinals will be looking for length out of Liberatore.

Although he didn’t allow any walks in his first start this season, his control can get a bit spotty so hitters should try to maintain control of the zone, fouling off close pitches and laying off the slider (which had an oBA of .185 last year) to force Liberatore to stay in the zone with the heat.

Take pitches and try to get Liberatore out early so you can beat up this beleaguered bullpen, which ranks 24th in ERA. 

Chance to win two in a row starts tonight!

Series Preview: Cardinals (4-5) at Pirates (3-7)

4-7-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals this week in their first divisional series of the season. Both teams enter the week fresh off losing their respective weekend series to an AL East team with the Bucs dropping 2 of 3 to the Yankees and the Cardinals getting swept by the Red Sox.

The Cardinals offense has been among the best in MLB despite their underwhelming record with the 4th most runs scored (62) in addition to their current double-digit hits streak.

4/7

Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore (L) – 6.0 IP, 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 4 K, 0 BB

Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinski (R) – 3.2 IP, 0-1, 9.82 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, 4 K, 2 BB

4/8

Cardinals: Sonny Gray (R) – 11 IP, 1-0, 5.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 15 K, 2 BB

Pirates: Paul Skenes (R) – 12.1 IP, 1-0, 1.46 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 13 K, 2 BB

4/9

Cardinals: Erick Fedde (R) – 9.0 IP, 1-1, 7.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3 K, 4 BB

Pirates: Mitch Keller (R) – 9.2 IP, 1-1, 7.45 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 8 K, 5 BB

Cardinals: Brendan Donovan – The super-utility man and former Gold Glove winner, Donovan led the Cardinals in hits last season and looks poised to repeat that achievement this year. He went 7-for-11 the past three games with 3 extra-base hits, raising his batting average up to .333 on the season.

Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes – Hayes has hit safely in each of the past five games, slashing .368/.455/.684 over that span. He’s also significantly cut down on his swing-and-miss at the plate while making better contact more frequently which indicates that this success can be sustainable.

Cardinals: Wilson Contreras – Moving to first base from catcher was expected to help Contreras be able to focus solely on hitting but the early returns this season have been disappointing. The Cardinals 2 hitter leads the team in strikeouts with 16 as he is batting just .114 entering this series.

Pirates: Tommy Pham – Pham’s walk-off hit on Sunday broke an 0-for-17 streak and made fans temporarily excited for the veteran journeyman but the boos that echoed PNC Park on Friday will ring again if he can’t provide something more for this offense.

Cardinals: Ivan Herrera (left knee inflammation) – Herrera exited game 1 of the Sunday doubleheader in Boston during the third inning with imaging revealing inflammation that will result in an IL stint for the young catcher.

Pirates: Colin Holderman (right knee sprain) – His pitching struggles from late last year have resurfaced and, if it’s due to injury, there may be hope he can get things right once he heals.

Team Notes

The Cardinals lead MLB in batting average (.301), OBP (.380) and are behind only the Yankees in SLG (.482). By contrast, the Pirates rank 28th in BA (.197), 24th in OBP (.290) and 30th in SLG (.296).

St. Louis sits on the other end of the spectrum on the pitching side as their team ERA (6.01) ranks dead last in MLB as both starters and relievers have struggled this year for the Red Birds.

Starter Spotlight: Good Will Warren

4-6-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Hoping to avoid the sweep today, the Pirates will face rookie righty and Yankees 5th ranked prospect, Will Warren.

An alumnus of Jackson Prepatory School in Flowood, MS – the same school which produced Pirates 2024 1st round pick, Konnor Griffin – Warren was selected by the Yankees in the 8th round of the 2021 draft out of Southeastern Louisiana University.

He had a solid first two professional seasons in the minors with a 3.63 ERA through 258 innings pitched across three levels of minor league ball. 

After earning a non-roster invite to spring training, Warren debuted with the Yankees on July 30, 2024 despite struggling with a 6.11 ERA over 20 games in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

His struggles continued in New York, scuffling to a 10.32 ERA through 22.2 innings.

That said, Warren does have some good stuff and can miss bats with the best of them.

He’s had above average strikeout rates at every level of the minors with a 26% K rate though walks have been troublesome with an 8.9% rate in that time.

Warren has a 5-pitch mix sitting in the low-90s with his 4-seam and sinker, mid-80s on his changeup and low-80s on the curve and sweeper.

Despite the low velocity on the fastball, it was a very effective pitch for him in a small sample last season with opposing batters hitting just .074 against the 4-seamer and resulted in 11 of his 29 strikeouts.

In his first start this season, he went 5 innings allowing 2 runs off 1 hit (a home run) with 4 strikeouts but also 4 walks.

He’s prone to wildness with his nearly sidearm delivery often flying open and pulling hard to either side of the plate. If certain pitches aren’t working for him or locating well, he will be forced to shift to a more limited arsenal and that would put the advantage on the hitters.

With the way these games have been going, they’ll need any advantage they can get.

It can only go up from here right?

4-6-25 – Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

The Pittsburgh Pirates returned to PNC Park on Friday, and, well, things didn’t go great.

On the field, Max Fried and the New York Yankees decimated Mitch Keller and the Pirates 9-4, with the Yankees dominating from the offset. Off the field, “Sell the Team” chants were heard just about every half inning, alongside numerous other “Sell the Team” fan fare, from a plane flying over the North Shore, to protests and even t-shirts and other apparel asking owner Bob Nutting to sell the franchise.

Gary Morgan wrote a piece on Opening Day and the weird vibe that surrounded it, and it’s fascinating, seeing as a home opener for any franchise, in any sport, is usually an event of celebration, not remorse, but that was the case yesterday.

Having been to my second home opener, first being last year versus Baltimore, things felt off everywhere, from the on-field product, will be of major focus in this piece, to everything happening in the stands, from arguments, to New York Yankees Paul Skenes jerseys and well, the men’s bathroom lines.

Things rightfully felt weird, and, sadly, there’s a clear premise behind the thought process of the fans that were at the game yesterday, “Is it ever going to get better?”

That was asked to me by a few people in section 124, some Yankees fans asking from an outside perspective and to be quite honest, a completely different mindset on the game of baseball, and of course lifelong Pirates fans, who have seen the ups and downs of the franchise much longer than I have.

My answer to all comers was the same, “They can only go up from here right?”. Sounds like a cop out answer, sure, but let’s look at some things we’ve seen from the first eight games and the past six years under this managerial regime.

For starters, 2025 has sucked for this Pirates group, just about every worry we as fans, and the team mind you, has come to light and hit the team like an 18 wheeler on I-22. David Bednar has already been sent down to AAA-Indianapolis amidst more struggles that carried over from last season, and I want to believe he can rekindle his back-to-back All-Star form at some point, but he’s going to have to do it fast.

The offense, oh that beautifully bad offense, has yet to surpass the four runs scored mark in any of their eight games this season, ranking 26th in baseball with 23 runs scored, just ahead of the Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies while being tied with the Texas Rangers. Right now, only Endy Rodriguez and Oneil Cruz possess multiple extra base hits, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been arguably their most consistent bat, and he’s batting ninth in the order most days.

The starting rotation, the clear strength of the roster, has overall been fine. We’re just getting through the second turn through the rotation, and Paul Skenes seems to have his eyes set on a Cy Young candidacy, Mitch Keller is having his usual ups and downs following his start Friday, and Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney and Thomas Harrington, or whoever is the fifth starter, are finding their footing early on.

All of this is true about the first eight games. The offense stinks, the bullpen is shaky at best and the starting rotation has questions in the back end but is an overall good group. Will the offense continue to be this bad? More than likely no. Will the bullpen eventually find roles for all of the newcomers and become a more serviceable unit? More than likely yes, seeing as Bednar’s absence has shaken some things around.

We’re eight games in, and firmly, this team can still be around .500 or even above it if the right cards are dealt and the chips on the table work their magic. Will that happen? History would tell us no, seeing as manager Derek Shelton hasn’t sniffed a .500 or better campaign in his time with the Pirates, but, you also have to ask yourself this, “Is this the best version of the 2025 Pirates?” The clear answer is absolutely not.

Jared Jones will be sidelined for awhile. Where the team will be by the time he returns is a mystery, but he no doubt helps this roster more than he hurts it. Nick Gonzales will return from a short IL stint soon, and although he’s not a massively impactful bat, he should help things more than hurt them, seeing as I’d rather see Gonzales as second base rather than Jared Triolo or Adam Frazier.

Bryan Reynolds is working through a minor injury but still designated hitting at the moment, and Reynolds is a historically good player and will eventually progress to his mean averages, which help the team. Oneil Cruz appears to be taking baby steps towards being the clear impact bat of this lineup, Ke’Bryan Hayes advanced Statcast numbers say luck will eventually teeter towards his favor and some of the young guys, like Endy, will get more comfortable as the season progresses.

This, all before Nick Yorke makes his way here, before Billy Cook makes his way, before the likes of Bubba Chandler or any number of young, talented arms the Pirates have make their way here. This is the product we’re being fed for now, and its not a winning one, that’s for sure, but, with the ingredients spread around the organization, and hopes that regression to the mean come into play, the only direction this team can go is upwards.

You’re probably wondering how I can take any sliver of positivity out of what I watched in person yesterday, and your wonder and curiosity makes a ton of sense, but let me explain.

If the Pirates were in the same position, 2-6 through eight games, and were fielding their best 26 players, I’d be massively more worried, but they aren’t fielding their best 26, partly because they can’t due to injury and partly because they have their own plans set for some players that can contribute throughout the remainder of 2025. If you think of it that way, it becomes a little easier to bite the bullet on what we’ve witnessed throughout the first week and change of the season, mainly because we don’t have a “best version” to compare to what we’ve seen so far.

Is the best version of this 2025 team a competitor? Maybe, but we’re practically seeing what the worst possible scenario is for this ball club, all outside aside, which is a ball club not seeing their young talent, specifically bats, develop, and veteran signings not making worthy enough contributions for it to even matter.

The Pirates play the Yankees again two more times over the weekend, and every game is an opportunity to right the ship, but for now, the Pirates are at their lowest point, they can only go upwards, its up to them just how far up they can go.

Starter Spotlight: Lil’ Marco

4-5-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After a less-than-stellar home opener yesterday, the Pirates will shift to face a familiar face in Marcus Stroman.

Spending 11 seasons with the Blue Jays, Mets, Cubs and Yankees, the 5’7 veteran right-hander has had success in his career when facing Pittsburgh, posting a 2.75 ERA across 36 innings pitched against the Pirates.

Following a season where Stro went 10-9 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 154.2 innings pitched, he appears to be trending down in his career.

Setting aside the offseason issues out of Yankees camp, Stroman has been on the decline the past few years, seeing his ERA increase each of the last 4 seasons while his strikeout rate has declined precipitously over that same span and his walk rate has increased.

Among players with at least 150 IP last season, Stroman’s K-BB% was the lowest in all of MLB.

His velocity has fallen off over the years, pitching arsenal consists of numerous offerings ranging from his fastballs (4-seam, sinker and cutter) barely touching 90 to his slurve and slider that dip down to the low-80s.

His slider has become an extremely ineffective offering, ranking among the worst in MLB last season, getting hit at a .258 clip and slugged at .386.

But his other offerings have not fared well either as his 4-seam, sinker, cutter and slurve each had oBA of .285+ and oSLG of .455+ so hitters are picking up on the pitches.

As odd as it may seem after yesterday’s beat down, this is a game the Pirates should excel in if they are patient at the plate and look for elevated fastballs or hanging off-speed stuff.

Stroman is prone to make mistakes and put guys on base. Make it count when he does and even up the weekend series.

The 2025 Pirates Home Opener was Unlike Any I’ve Been to

4-5-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

There is usually a feeling of excitement leading up to events like this.

Even when the Pirates are historically bad, or, let’s be honest, that early in the season, you have little more to go on than at most a week or two of baseball, so, maybe it’s more accurate to say they look historically bad some years.

That’s not always reflective of your team. I mean, look, the Braves are 0-8 to start the season, and ain’t nobody who thinks they’ll wind up as one of the worst teams in baseball by the end of this campaign.

I could wind up wrong, but I still think this Pirates team has a chance to get to .500. And if you disagree, or even think I’m insane, that’s ok, it’s early in the season, and frankly, if I only said things based on the response I thought I might get my job would be a lot easier. I could just come on here and type sell the team, or detail how terrible such and such is every day and call it quits.

That stuff is very popular, at least with the vocal minority.

This Home Opener though, it didn’t feel right, and it started before Spring Training even began. It didn’t feel right because the team itself, meaning management on down sounded, looked, spoke in a fashion that led me to believe they were less enthusiastic about the team in 2025 than they were in 2024.

And that was while there was still time to do something about it.

There have been protests. Sell the team billboards, a flyover with a banner saying the same, t-shirts with the saying, and even walk around down town pickets. Hell they were even at Pirates Fest.

I think this is a waste of time. I’ve made that clear. I also hold them no ill will for doing it, they feel convicted and hey, it’s their money and time right? I just know they’ve aimed higher than they have munitions to hit.

The team has had this same regime since late 2019, and while I didn’t expect a World Series contender after 5 years of baseball you certainly shouldn’t be able to add a player like Paul Skenes to your team and somehow NOT feel your team is on the rise.

At the very least, you should have a good explanation of what you’re doing to ensure you don’t waste his time here. Instead, we entered 2025 with these open questions.

  • Yes, Derek Shelton had losing rosters for his entire tenure, but the club really thinks he did the best he could have with those rosters?
  • Ben Cherrington has yet to bring in any impact bat. Via any means. Any player on this team you would argue is one, he didn’t bring here. How can that be for anyone in his position 6 years in?
  • Travis Williams made some changes to the outfield experience and opened up standing room only tickets to get more people in the stadium, yet he’s found no way to help this team monetize their position and create revenue off the field, to effect the field. The main project he started in 2020 across from PNC Park remains unfinished and the projections for what it might bring in has been adjusted down to the point it almost doesn’t matter. If Williams isn’t there to mask/alter how bad a businessman Bob Nutting is, why is he here?

And that’s just the off the field stuff.

How about on the field? You’re probably more familiar with this part.

  • The team had at best a shaky closer. In 2024 they felt strongly enough about this need that they spent 10 million dollars bringing in Aroldis Chapman. This year, they add some complimentary pieces in the pen, but no hammer and the worry about Bednar was so clear, so in your face they were forced to Demote him before the Home Opener. A decision like that says one thing, they were ready to make it long before they did to do it that early. So…Why no investment here this time?
  • The outfield couldn’t be more clear. You either trust Jack Suwinski to recapture 2023 minimally, or you have to go get a hitter to play corner outfield. Signing Tommy Pham answered that, here’s how… It said, we hope Jack is better, we think Jack will be better, and we don’t want to spend money to fill a role we ultimately want him to take. But that’s not how a team with almost no projectable power approaches a season they want to take a step in. Again, I’d have more respect for your choice if you simply didn’t sign Pham and flat out told me you believed in Jack. Maybe I still don’t agree, but you didn’t even sign a speedbump to hold him back.
  • This team has done nothing different to remedy their poor defense or fundamentals since they fired Joey Cora. They say they do, but the mistakes keep happening. On the bases, in the field, at the plate, all of it. At the very least there should be different faces pretending to be addressing it.
  • They’ve proven they can identify, develop and deploy pitchers. Their vision for good hitting is off. That’s evident from the types of talents they sign in free agency and the types of guys they trade for. Konner Griffin is the first draft pick since they replaced the group in charge of talent acquisition and it’s early but he certainly looks a lot more like the modern day picture of offensive talent in this version of MLB than most of what they’ve drafted or acquired. The funny thing is, it feels like they have drafted trying for speed and contact, but they don’t coach that way, at least not effectively. Even if they’ve fixed this, it shouldn’t have taken 5 years to identify as a big issue.
  • This team spends more on the International Draft than any team in baseball. That’s verifiable, and 100% a reflection of how bad they’ve been, that’s how you get big International Pool banks folks. They invest heavily in their Dominican Academy. They have one of the top 5 Asian scouting presences in the game, and it’s netted them absolutely zero players they signed internationally being on the MLB team. Even if he worked, Ji-Hwan Bae would have been Huntington’s. Luis Ortiz was one, but he’s in Cleveland now. How the hell can you just continue to invest more than everyone, and NEVER have any success? How can you expect to succeed as a small market team if you don’t land any Soto, Rodriguez, Abreu, Robert, type players in this key area of player acquisition?
  • First base has been a hole all 6 years. Patched with Free agents and waiver claims, no success. So this year, instead of upping your game and finally saying enough is enough it’s one of our very few holes we absolutely have to fill, you make a trade you should have in 2022. Spencer Horwitz could be great, really, but it’s the type of move you make to try fixing this situation early on, not when the team is supposed to be where they’re going. Same could be said for the recent Alexander Canario deal, he could be good, has power, but it’s the type of deal a team trying to get there makes, not a team that’s supposed to be there.

I could go on, easily.

This team doesn’t have a lot of money. I get and accept that.

But this team that claims everyone will be doing all the little things right, and win in the margins, behind the scenes has done nothing of the sort.

It’s not that any of us should have expected this to be a World Series team right now, but you should sure as hell be starting to see the framework for it.

A framework that makes you feel a real run is on its way probably doesn’t have you legitimately considering a 38 year old Andrew McCutchen as your 3rd or 4th best hitter.

Nothing against Cutch, but he won’t be here when this club wins again and frankly, if feels like Shelton, Cherington and Williams won’t be either.

It’s easy to see why fans are protesting, even if it’s probably something that players see, hear and hate more than the owner ever will. I’m sure Paul won’t have Sell the Team ringing in his ears at all when and if they approach him about staying around for a while longer. I’m positive that hearing those chants 8 games into a brand new season really fills them with faith and a zest to fight for us feverishly.

Don’t get me wrong, these protests aren’t the reason the season is where it is, all those bullet points are, but the Home Opener has always been when we all came together just to celebrate the game being back, the stars we do have and the promise that things have to be headed in the right direction.

This was an embarrassing event if I’m honest. I saw the face on newly acquired Canario as he trotted out to left field following Isiah Kiner-Falefa being picked off first base down 6-runs and launching a round of Sell the Team chants.

Here’s a guy with all of 45 MLB at bats, taken aback by what he’s hearing as he put on a Pirates uniform for the first time. I felt embarrassed he was made to feel that way, embarrassed that the fan base or at least some of it has been driven to this point, embarrassed a league could allow such disparity, and as I heard fans actually fighting with each other on the rotunda and in the seats, all through the concourses about who deserved what and how it was earned vs what was and wasn’t appropriate, well, that too embarrassed the hell out of me.

Yankees fans laughing at how silly and frivolous our little event was for their franchise. How much better they are as fans. Hell, I saw more than a few Yankees Jerseys with “Skenes” written in on the name plate above his number 30. A bold and predictive move that it’s awful hard to argue with.

More than anything. The body language on these players. Bro…They don’t want to play for this team. At least a lot of them.

If this continues, we’ll see a coaching change before this team gets too deep into the season. The lack of energy is palpable, the complete lack of crispness to anything they do has been apparent all Spring and now into the Regular season.

The home opener was not a good experience, right down to somehow the bathroom situation that has literally never been a problem at PNC suddenly sporting lines of humanity stretching into the concourse. It was crazy to see. I’ve been to playoff games at PNC and never seen anything like it.

Unprepared at every turn, that’s the story of this version of the Pittsburgh Pirates so far. Unprepared offensively, unprepared to practice the fundamental approach they’ve preached, and more than anything, unprepared for the reality of how far they could push fans along with an complete underestimation of the ability of the common fan to see the difference between Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier and a real beneficial free agent signing that could help the club do something more than buy time to see rookies.

There is a path to correcting this. I’m not sure they’ll have the balls to start on the project or if the right man would be in charge of it, but Shelton has to be on a hotter seat than he’s ever been, and this team must consider doing something very uncharacteristic.

Get serious about the things a small market has to succeed in, not just saying them.

The players don’t look excited. They look sluggish. They look like they accept what’s coming to them, losses.

Bringing back a coach for a 6th season who’s done nothing but lose, well, why wouldn’t they accept quickly what the team clearly has.

Culture comes from the top, not signing a guy you think yells at his teammates.

I don’t know where it goes from here, but it’s hard to see it as up with Shelton at the helm. If you can’t get them up for the Home Opener, how’s it gonna look on a Tuesday in May?

Starter Spotlight: TGI Fried-day

4-4-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Happy Home Opening Day to all who celebrate! Last year, we welcomed the then defending AL East champion Baltimore Orioles and this time, the defending American League champion, New York Yankees.

While New York had a number of tools in their belt during their pennant run last season, a newly added one is their starting pitcher for today, veteran southpaw Max Fried.

The 2022 Cy Young runner-up and long-time Braves has faced the Pirates 8 times in his career, most recently last June when he twirled 6 frames of 6-hit, 1-run ball.

In his first start donning the pinstripes, Fried got roughed up a bit, lasting just 4.2 innings and allowing 7 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts, surrendering 6 runs with only 2 of them earned due to numerous errors.

As discussed previously, Fried isn’t a guy who misses a ton of bats but gets soft contact and ground balls at an elite rate.

Dating back to the start of the 2021 season, no pitcher with at least 600 innings in that span has a lower barrel rate than Fried’s and while his ground-ball rate (54.4%) is eclipsed by just Framber Valdez (62.2) and Logan Webb (59%) while only Zach Wheeler has a lower average exit velocity.

A big reason for his success stems from his big looping curve ball, which was hit at just a .153 clip last season with a .471 OPS and a 37.1% whiff rate – all of which are the best among his offerings.

Fries will work his 4-seamer/sinker in the low-90s to setup hitters and look to finish the job with the curve. He adds in a changeup and sweeper – both in the low-80s – to change location and bat speed – but the fastball/curve combo will be the main weapons to watch for today.

I wrote earlier about who would be best suited to combat lefties and hope they can jump on Fried early because this Yankees offense won’t be kept at bay for too too long.