Where is All the Adam Frazier Buzz?

His name has been a popular choice when people talk about the Pirates continuing the rebuild of the system but as we sit here in the middle of the third trade cycle since is it fair to assume nobody is interested?

Now, to be fair, I first started pointing to Adam as a movable piece because of where he plays more so than how he plays. I felt it was dealing from a position of strength, or at least options since strength would denote that excellence is somehow being blocked. Now I’m starting to wonder if the market at the very least doesn’t match what the Pirates think they need in exchange.

So, today, let’s talk about Adam and see if we can’t make some sense of the situation.

What is Adam Frazier?

Well, this is one of those guys who most everyone has a quick answer on, but let’s try to keep this as fact based as possible.

He’s become a terrific fielder, and worked hard to do it. He certainly isn’t getting Gold Glove nods via his bat like so many have throughout the years but he isn’t flashy either. He makes the plays he should, a few he probably shouldn’t and almost always makes the smart play.

Hey, for the Pirates lately, none of that is a given.

The bat plays, even if it doesn’t always feel that way. For his career he’s a 6.9 WAR player. He’ll give you a .280 average and his OPS will reside somewhere in the high .700s.

No matter how you slice it, that’s a solid bat. A complimentary bat, not a feature bat.

I think that’s fair.

He’s also not an outfielder. Oh, he can play the position in a pinch and he has the athleticism to get to balls, but on an everyday basis, his arm isn’t cut for it. Over time it will get exposed and man, once you find a position where you become Gold Glove level that’s really where you hold most value.

What’s His Value, and What Does it Come From?

Well, that depends on how you like to look at value. If you believe Baseball is one big math problem and all it takes is finding a package that adds up close to break even on surplus value. It’s a good way to look at it, but important to note every team uses different math.

Why? Well it’s baseball of course it’s convoluted. The basic idea is you take the player’s WAR balanced by their salary and if they have more than one year left toss in xWAR and expected salary to calculate a surplus.

Now, I avoid math whenever possible so let’s just say smart people use voodoo behind the scenes to make the math come together.

Back to the different math, well some clubs will put more value on certain metrics which changes the weight and ultimately outcome of the entire equation.

OK, that concludes the nerdy numbers part of this examination.

Next, value doesn’t live in a vacuum. if Adam is the only second baseman available near his production level there’s a great chance he nets full value. If there are 4 or 5 other players close in value and available chances are they all knock each other back a bit.

It’s not much different than a free agent if you really think about it. Some seasons there are seemingly 15 top tier pitching options, some seasons there are 3. The value of those 3 skyrocket, while the year with 15 will typically drive down the cost of 13 or 14 of them.

Now pretend the team is an agent and they’re trying to get the best price for their client, the market will play just as big a role as the player himself.

Should We Still Expect a Move?

Yes.

First, the Pirates are motivated sellers and no matter the amount of mental gymnastics you try to perform it’s really hard to make a case that Frazier should stay and compete as the prospects start making their way to PNC.

Most of the top competition for Frazier is on the free agent side of life this year, and only a few would be what you’d consider major upgrades from what Frazier could provide far cheaper.

He’ll get moved, but all the factors involved lead me to expect just a little below max value in return.

It’s Too Early to Guess Pirates 2021 Record

I probably get asked 20 times a week how many games the Pirates will win next season, most of those come with a prediction of 50 or something outlandish like that. Let’s be clear, that would be historically bad and while I’m not ready to rule it out simply because they could trade half the team by the middle of the season, I also think we might be discounting that not all these trades will equal total losses.

Let’s go through some of the factors I’ll be looking at before we get to prediction season and talk about some of those trades that might not hurt all that much.

We Just Don’t Know Who Stays or Goes

The chatter for Joe Musgrove has heated up, while the market for Adam Frazier has all but disappeared. That’s only two guys but they’re to two most likely trade candidates. I rarely discuss the relievers, those will crop up I’m sure but the Pirates have very few who would net too much of significance in return.

There is a difference between listening on anyone and actually trading everyone. With nobody really ready to push from the minors they might actually be wise to keep the off season moves relatively isolated to the guys who expire after 2022.

Here’s the issue with some of those guys, Taillon hasn’t thrown a pitch in anger for over a year and a half. Chad Kuhl just started building up toward the end of the 60 game season and getting a spot in the rotation isn’t a guarantee. Steven Brault is seen by many as a long man or spot starter so his value may not match what he provides for the Pirates, I mean good luck paying what he makes and getting what he provides.

Bottom line, I truly believe they’re open to move almost anyone, but they absolutely don’t have to.

Every Trade Makes the Pirates Worse

Does it? For instance, let’s say Josh Bell stayed, he and Colin Moran have some kind of weird platoon. I say weird because it was never going to be natural. If you only start Bell against left handers that’s rendering him half the player he is and without the DH both of those bats wouldn’t be in the lineup together anyway. As it stands Moran will get the lion’s share of starts at first and he’ll replace most of Bell’s production. 25 homeruns isn’t a stretch and that’s not all that much lower than what Bell has been producing, potentially with better defense.

If they trade Joe Musgrove, not too many ways to paint that as the club gets better. The only way it would work out is if Taillon returns to form. Meaning somewhere near June they’re done babying his arm and let him pitch, and he manages to not fall apart. Now if I have those concerns about Taillon, don’t you think other clubs would too? But it could add up to a rotation that actually becomes pretty ok.

If Adam Frazier is moved, they have any number of ways to go to fill the spot. He’s a good player but if they replaced his at bats with even a combination of Tucker and Gonzalez, how much worse are they really? This could even open the door for Rodolfo Castro to make his way to the Pirates. At the end of the day, it won’t mean they’re 10 games worse.

The NL Central is in Disarray

We don’t know what everyone will get done, but for clarity sake, it’s clear the Cubs and Reds are diving into at least light reconstruction, if not full rebuilds. The Cubs could have easily waited another year and the Reds should have waited another year to try to go for it. They had a killer system and it was about to bear fruit but they pulled the trigger early and ended their window before it ever really opened.

The Cards have holes but their pitching staff remains strong and the Brewers are probably going to have to find a taker for Hader this year. He’s their only real piece left and they’ll be forced to play Braun everyday in the field (which he’s physically incapable of) or lose his bat in the lineup.

Impossible to make predictions on record without first having a better handle on how these other clubs shape up too.

Young Players Do Actually Get Better Sometimes

The Pirates as currently constructed are the result of a failed build. As such they have a ton of young players and young players do improve. We talked the other day about Bryan Reynolds returning to closer to his norm but he’s not the only player who should improve. Chad Kuhl should keep progressing, and Cole Tucker actually needs to show something this year.

None of these improvements will make them part of the ultimate solution necessarily but they could create value for themselves.

There is plenty of time left to start predicting how this team does in 2021 but right now, just these few points alone make it impossible.

Someday Never Comes

One of my favorite bands has to be Creedence Clearwater Revival and as such I like a ton of their songs that that you wouldn’t consider the hits. None more than “Someday Never Comes”.

I really suggest looking it up if you’re not familiar but here are some of the lyrics that really strike me.

“First thing I remember
Was asking Papa, “Why?”
For there were many things I didn’t know
And Daddy always smiled
Took me by the hand
Saying, “Someday you’ll understand”

Well, I’m here to tell you now each and every mother’s son
You better learn it fast, you better learn it young
‘Cause someday never comes”

Sure, I know the song isn’t about a baseball team, but as John Fogerty wrote quite possibly the most iconic baseball song ever created past “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” part of me feels he’d love to see it become part of a piece about the beautiful game.

I think back to my childhood, asking my Dad why the Pirates couldn’t keep John Smiley. In one way or another after trying about four or five different ways to get me to see the reasons he very much so rested on someday, I’d understand.

Well, as usual he was right, I did come to understand, but man I never accepted it as something I was ok with.

Many of you read what we write about the prospects on the way, the prospects coming in. The stars being traded, the free agents we’d kill for them to look at and assume we’re just turning a blind eye to what’s wrong with the Pirates, or baseball for that matter. Well I’m here to tell you, nothing could be further from the truth.

It hurts us just as much as you, but I love baseball, and my Pirates. Warts and all.

I choose to not focus all my energy on the cap or ownership changes, because the reality is this is the system we’re working with and this is the owner we have. Maybe both of those things add up to a mountain that won’t ever be climbed but it won’t ever stop me from hoping, pulling, advising, evaluating or rooting for my team. Oh I’ll write about both from time to time, but if I put together a piece on the potential of a player, I’m not going to always talk about Nutting not wanting to pay them or whether the team will be built around them. Sure those things are there, but doesn’t it get exhausting? Don’t you get tired of hearing it? Don’t some of you get tired of commenting it like you have some never ending spring of evergreen Nutting is cheap jokes flowing from your keyboard?

We live in a time when anyone can jump on a computer and write whatever comes into their head, and every single person will find someone their thoughts resonate with. If that were my goal entirely, maybe I’d just write 6 Nutting hate pieces a week and call it a day, but what I want more than anything is to chronicle the journey from top to bottom and one day have it all add up to what many of us have been dreaming of for decades.

I want to be fair. Sometimes that will touch on certain realities, and other times that will mean keeping my eye on the story at hand.

What the Pirates are attempting to do, can be done. It can’t be done without near perfect execution. It can’t be done without some pain, well, more pain along the way. It probably can’t be done without ownership keeping their word. But no, there will never be a time when I stop talking about all the angles on the way there.

There won’t be a lesson I learn along the way that makes me believe the club isn’t worth covering and most importantly, you, the readers will ultimately dictate that. If you want to read, we’ll continue to be here, if you don’t, nature will take it’s course. As we close out our first full year of Pirates coverage here on Inside the Bucs Basement, you’ve certainly leaned heavily toward us sticking around.

Maybe someday will never come, but life and the game keep going, with plenty to talk about every step of the way.

Happy New Year Pirates Nation!

-Gary

It Feels Like Some Have Ignored Bryan Reynolds History

Just about every topic born from 2020’s abbreviated baseball season has been sufficiently qualified with the ever present short sample size lens. Someone who has seemingly not been afforded that graciousness is Bryan Reynolds. I suggest we’re ignoring the forest despite the trees and look for the man in black to make a big statement in 2021.

When the Pirates traded Andrew McCutchen for Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds back in 2018 the reactions fans had were to be expected. Andrew delivered something the city had been waiting over two decades to see and even if it wasn’t single handedly he was the face of that team.

Kyle Crick jumped right in and looked like a real get from the jump and has since run into struggles that should he not be able to address will render him jobless but at the time he was a pitcher with a plus fastball, crazy slider and plagued by bouts of control issues.

Bryan was a single A bat, considered to be the 4th best outfield prospect in a stacked San Francisco system. In fact the trade was made just days after Gerrit Cole was moved to Houston and Jason Martin who came back in that trade was actually considered by many to be the better of the two.

Fast forward just a couple short years and Jason Martin was allowed to walk away for nothing and Bryan officially is enduring the first off season of his entire professional life following a sub par performance.

The season came as a stark shock to everyone, Reynolds had literally never hit below .300 in a season of pro ball and in 2020 he posted a paltry .189. Panic time Right?

Probably not. This is a guy who just hits, and while baseball is notorious for discovering a guy’s weaknesses and exploiting them, Reynolds struggles came from just about every strategy and angle you could fire at him last year.

I’m not in the business of making excuses for players, first, I don’t know the guy and second I get the impression he’d never do it himself, but it’s really hard to take that season too seriously for myriad reasons.

I do believe the league pushed back a bit, they found some things Bryan struggles with like breaking pitches off the plate and in or fastballs at the letters outside. Pitches that he typically would spit on became pitches he took a hack at because when the league knows you aren’t hitting something, expect to see it 70% of the time. That leads some players to go after that low fastball in the zone because it might be the best pitch you see in an at bat.

The longer it goes on without an adjustment the worse it becomes. For some players this is something that can destroy a career. For Bryan I have to believe another 200 at bats would have made him look a whole lot more like himself.

What I really wonder though, why have so many of us allowed that 185 at bats to speak so much louder than the 1,500 plus that say the opposite?

Well, part of the reason is just how lost he looked. Late on the fastball, early on the off speed, rolling over on balls he used to drive to the opposite field, there just wasn’t anything to hang your hat on and I have to imagine he felt the same. Hard to get your approach honed in when you can’t find a baseline.

I felt like the entire team struggled at the plate together with the exception of Hayes and if there were adjustments from the coaching staff nothing visible comes to mind.

My optimism that Bryan will figure it out this season is only tamped down by the realization that the exact same coaches are returning.

When we talk about all the things this team doesn’t have, let’s not forget what we do have, a young star outfielder who very well could be built around here in Pittsburgh. Want a face of the franchise? Well mine has a mustache and a new baby at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates Fans Are Experiencing Full Fledged Trade Envy

The past few days all Major League Baseball transactions trackers have been on high alert as rumors quickly began to swirl and permeate, ultimately resulting in a flurry of moves, which quickly transformed the Hot Stove from a slow simmer to a rapid boil. Over a twenty-four hour span the San Diego Padres acquired both Blake Snell from the Rays and Yu Darvish from the Cubs, only sacrificing two top 10 prospects in the process; one of whom, Luis Patino, falls within the MLB top 100. The Friars Frenzy also involved the signing of KBO star Ha-seong Kim, a 25 year old shortstop that has slashed 294/.373/.493 with 133 home runs and 134 stolen bases in a seven year career.

As all this was taking place Pirates Fans were continuing to lament the Josh Bell trade, while hoping that one of their players, namely Joe Musgrove or Adam Frazier, would somehow be mentioned in the next sentence from the MLB journalistic elite. Landing spots for these, and a few others, were feverishly identified. Lists of coveted prospects where strewn throughout posts on multiple platforms; just wishing, wanting and waiting for the next bit of news to involve the Pittsburgh Pirates. Of course there was a cursory bone thrown in their direction as Musgrove was once again floated as the most likely trade candidate due to interest from the teams that may have lost out on the Snell Sweepstakes, and now the Darvish (Salary) Dump. These statements were not made by questionable sources and I would never want to downplay the possibility of Mugrove, or any other Pirate being traded. however, until I hear that there is an agreement in place, a specific partner has been identified and there is an inkling as to who the prospects could be coming back in return, I will try to be as patient and realistic as possible.

We all know that there are multiple teams interested in Big Joe and some of these talks could be ramping up to more than just feeling each other out. This also happened at the most recent trade deadline with nothing to show for it. Adam Frazier has been rumored to be on his way out for a year now; inducing several publications to pretty much guarantee Frazier would be gone at one time or another, yet he is still here. For some of you these rumors and speculations are ways to engage in your fandom, and believe me it can be quite a rush at times, so I am not asking you to change the manner in which you choose to become involved in the sport and specifically the Pittsburgh Pirates. This is something I would never do. No one can tell me what kind of fan to be, so I would never impose my will on anyone.

Once again, this is just a cautionary tale, that sometimes you might not be happy with what you wish for and to be respectful of how other Pirates Fans react to the moves that are made by our favorite team. I am ultimately of the belief, after a long process, that I am a fan of name on the front of the jersey and not the name embroidered on the back, but not everyone thinks this way or needs to. This is not to say I don’t cheer for or wish the best for individual players; it’s just a place I have come to in my fandom. I also know that most likely the eventual outcome of many moves the Pirates will make between now and Opening Day will not be known for a few years, give or take, so instant reactions could easily be proven wrong if given time to marinate.

Sure most of you are probably set in your ways between Spend Nutting, Win Nutting and Hopelessly Optimistic, but it doesn’t mean that we haven’t all be through the same experiences in our Pittsburgh Pirates Fan Journey and that we don’t all have the same end goal in mind. We need to keep this in perspective for the almost inevitable trades that are upcoming, as well as the presumably difficult season(s) ahead.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 12-28-20

Probably the last Five Thoughts of 2020 here and I’ll start by thanking all of our readers for the comments, interactions and relationships. Baseball is from an organizational standpoint one of the more complicated sports to cover especially when your team is so often dreaming of the future. To your credit, most of you have that deep an interest and that has given two nerds from Pittsburgh a place to talk and an audience to match. From the bottom of our hearts, thank you.

Now, onto the five thoughts for the day.

1. I’m Very Confused by Much of the Bell Reaction

For one thing, this was wholly expected. And I don’t mean ‘told ya so’ I mean this was coming and I don’t know anyone in the industry who reported differently. This year was always going to be extend or expel and Bell isn’t the only player in that category. It goes to show the power of the homerun in baseball, he hit a ton in 2019, a full third during one month where he put up Babe Ruth numbers. He’s a lot closer to Hunter Renfroe than he is Bobby Bonilla.

2. Don’t Look Now but the Cubbies Might Be Blowin’ it Up

They are rumored to have names all over the place, Contreras, Bryant, Darvish, and they need to make a decision on Rizzo and Baez. They’ll use COVID as cover but this is exactly why Epstein wanted to leave, he doesn’t like this part when it’s his own players. And let me stop you before you get started, No this doesn’t mean the Pirates should hold tight, it’s too late for that and you don’t let other franchises decide your plan for you, you just aim to do it better.

3. I’ll Be Genuinely Surprised if Musgrove Survives the Weekend as a Bucco

Now that Snell has landed those who were in on him will of course think about Darvish, but they all know they can’t get him so look for Musgrove’s name to pick up steam. Where? Oh, I’ll say Toronto who just lost out on a bid to grab Ha-Seong Kim. Before you ask about a return, too many choices, I’d like to think he could land Manoah and at least one more good prospect.

4. Jacob Stallings is My Darkhorse Move

The Padres are doing everything to go all in this season. From picking up Blake Snell and reportedly being deep into talks to acquire Hu Darvish, to signing Ha-Seong Kim I find it hard to believe they’ll head into next season with Austin Nola as their top Catcher, at least without an insurance policy. Currently they are looking at the Cubs for Caratini or Contreras but if those two fall through don’t rule out Stallings, issue is what would they have left?

5. A Good Move Benefits Both Clubs

This is true, but that doesn’t always mean it’s an even swap. For instance, here’s an even trade proposal on the field. Would you make that deal? MLB swaps are extremely rare anymore except in mega deals where one team is giving up so much they have to show something immediate like Verdugo to Boston. That’s not to say one team is perpetually fleeced while the other makes out. If you wanted prospects and got prospects, you got what you needed. Doesn’t mean they’ll pan out but let’s be honest, if the Pirates were trading for MLB talent it better be eating another team’s dead contract to sway them to send a better prospect. Because that’s the focus, not the current clubhouse.

I’m sure we’ll talk again before the New Year but just in case, have a safe and happy holiday!

Why the Pirates Can’t Build on This Core

Let me start by saying this, it’s not all about money. Certainly some of it is but even the Dodgers would take two looks at this roster and turn it over. Now, they wouldn’t go about it in the same way, but they certainly wouldn’t rest on this roster believing they were close.

Close is an Important Word

It’s important because they aren’t close. And they’d need to be to hold onto this many players running out of control. If the Pirates were in the exact same position with their roster and the team was truly poised to make a run, none of this happens. They hold their cards, maybe even try to add, but the reality is they have much work to do.

Bluntly, if they were truly close, Neal Huntington would still be here. Note that the one draft Ben Cherington has participated in and his two trades have immediately placed 8 players in their top 20 prospects list. That could speak highly of his moves, but it almost speaks louder to the overall lack of talent in the system.

You can blame Nutting, he certainly is responsible for making this job harder by not spending but all the money in the world wouldn’t make this system put out what a club like this needs it to.

So Who is On Their Way Out?

Well, nobody has to be right now. The Pirates have nobody else who will expire before the end of 2022, meaning they aren’t forced to make moves right now but value in baseball is multifaceted. First you have years of control, this factor allows buyer and seller to trade in potential and cost assurance. Next you have actual statistics, this is where most focus but without the first factor it largely means nothing unless the stats are undeniable. Injury history plays in too, for instance how much potential Jameson Taillon has and his actual stats are both damaged by his injury history.

The players to watch right now based purely on timing are Frazier, Musgrove, Kuhl, Gonzalez, and Taillon. All of them are under team control through 2022 meaning they have 2 seasons left.

Yes, they just signed Gonzalez buying out his arbitration but that means nothing more than they didn’t want to negotiate and he and his camp agreed. It certainly doesn’t mean they wouldn’t trade him.

Gregory Polanco who just broke his wrist in Winter Ball would have to set the world on fire in the first half of the season or have the Pirates eat money in order to move him this season, but rest assured this is probably it for him here in the Burgh.

Now, can they extend any of these guys? Sure, and maybe they should if only to take some pressure off what the system will be asked to deliver. But who? Frazier is a no for me, if there is one thing this club has coming it’s middle infielders and Frazier stands to probably bring the biggest return of anyone not named Joe.

I could see Musgrove, he’s not in my eyes a top end pitcher but there is something to be said for having a veteran as an anchor in your rotation to help the youngsters along.

Taillon might be someone they could get far cheaper than his talent suggests simply because of the injury history, but it’d be risky. Cheaper doesn’t mean cheap and at some point the guy is going to want paid.

Who is the Core They’re Building Around?

Well, that kinda depends on whether you believe they’re here already or not. Ke’Bryan Hayes will come up and he certainly was impressive in his rookie campaign although it amounted to little more than a September call up and he is under team control through 2026. Bryan Reynolds could be, he’s locked up through 2025 and many of us have put as much weight on his awful 2020 as we did his breakout 2019. Mitch Keller is a possibility, he profiles as a middle of the rotation arm and also is under control through the 2025 season.

After that you have to start digging into the system and it won’t take long to see what they don’t have, yet. The focus thus far has been adding pitching, and that’s a good place to start. If everything goes right they have a really nice crop of pitchers working their way through, but if you’ve learned anything watching baseball over the years, rarely does everything go right.

As excited as I get watching Brennan Malone clips or Quinn Priester tape I have to remind myself there is nothing that guarantees they both arrive unscathed. I say all this because while you think they’re adding pitching and saying to yourself ‘hey how many pitchers do they need’ the answer is more. We love to blame injury for our issues here in Pittsburgh when we talk about the team being better than their record but reality is they had zero depth.

They’ve got some power coming up. Cal Mitchell, Mason Martin and even Nick Gonzales all have the ability to hit the ball over the fence but how many good teams have you watched with 2 or 3 guys who can hit the longball? They need more, and they need these three guys to pan out.

All of this is why they must make moves to continue to stock the shelves.

While we worry about obvious holes in the system like catcher, realize for what this team is trying to do, they need a whole lot more than just a quality backstop prospect. In fact the Pirates have gone out and got their last two quality catchers in Russel Martin and Francisco Cervelli. That’s not to say they shouldn’t try to acquire them, but they also don’t need to reach for one, all that’ll do is add congestion to the system and they have enough other needs that they don’t have to take a lesser prospect based on position.

A Bad Team With No Push

What do I mean? We’ll be heading into Spring training this season with not one prospect likely to head north.

A team that finished last in the league doesn’t have one prospect who is a lock to make a push to crack this roster, and that’s even with trades.

There is nothing more powerful I can write to illustrate just how deep the hole is. Before you start screaming about O’neil Cruz, look at his numbers from Winter Ball and realize he hasn’t played one game in AAA yet. And I’ll readily admit he’s the most prepared position player they have right now.

Take those expiration dates I spoke to earlier and factor in what’s coming and when, yeah, these moves are to save Nutting money, keep telling yourself that. It’s a mess, one that was created in part by Nutting being cheap and the former GM trying to keep the wheels on the cart when he should have pulled the rip cord.

Trading Bell Was the Right Move, Even if You Can’t See it Now

The Pirates did the right thing trading Josh Bell to the Washington Nationals, and I know it hurts some of you, hey, I really liked the guy too. That said, the Pirates have a ton of decisions like this that must be made. They don’t all have to end in a trade, but they all have to end in a definitive direction.

I don’t mean they have to pour over the entire roster just because, no this is more about the stage of career a large swath of players find themselves in. Running low on control.

I’ve called this version of the Pittsburgh Pirates a failed rebuild and I use that definition lightly, because Neal Huntington was more so trying to remain in the competitive world. He failed. There could have been paths taken or deals not made that could have potentially made today’s product more passible but it still wouldn’t be a winner.

I promised I’d try to explain why this was the right move, why it was necessary, and at the same time try to describe what makes the return fair. I’ll give it my best shot, but keep in mind there are no guarantees. My car is supposed to start every morning but if one little thing goes wrong it won’t. That’s where I come in with money to fix the issue and keep the plan moving. This is also where things tend to fall apart for the Pirates.

Let’s Be Honest About Josh Bell

First things first, let’s be honest about what Josh Bell was here. He was the only legitimate power threat on a team utterly devoid of power. Problem is, he wasn’t nearly consistent enough to build around. Your most inconsistent player can’t also be your best.

He has two years of control left and the Nationals probably won’t re-sign him either, in fact I wouldn’t rule out the Nationals moving him themselves before his time there has expired. He’s not expensive, not even for the Pirates and if he doesn’t start finding a way to avoid month long plunges to below replacement level he never will be.

I’ve seen people want to build around Josh, but in reality, if you want to win one day, awful idea. If you give him 550 at bats in the middle of your order you better have solid bats on either side of him that can help smooth over the peaks and valleys of day to day Bell.

Let’s be clear, this is not a centerpiece player for any club that considers themselves a competitor. Even less so for a team that knows beyond a shadow of doubt he won’t be here when they are.

Josh loved it here in Pittsburgh and I do believe if they wanted to they could have gotten past his agent to put together an extension but we’d be talking about maybe a five year deal that ate his last two seasons of arbitration and tacked on 3 years. Even that would have been a departure for Boras who loves to take his guys to free agency or at least get them there in their very early 30’s, but based on interviews with Mr. Boras its easy to see he too saw that Bell wasn’t going to net that monster deal. In other words, what Boras likes to do with ‘his’ guys, doesn’t apply equally when he knows they don’t reach the level required to demand it.

At the end of the day there is May 2019 and everything else Bell has done at the plate and I haven’t even touched his defense.

Just be honest about the player. Take the jersey out of your closet, look at the back then flip it around and look at what’s important, the logo. This was not their best player, although it wouldn’t matter if he was.

The Return Was…OK

We talked about all the factors. The Nationals system is at least as far as rating sites go, the weakest in MLB ranking number 30 out of 30. So two top tens from that system isn’t the same as say, well, any other team.

The rankings are based on the entirety of the system and the Nationals lack the depth that is required to rank highly, they also lack talent in any position aside from the mound. This makes sense because the Nationals have poured money into their pitching staff at the MLB level, so of course that would be one area where they aren’t forcing prospects to make jumps they aren’t ready to take, at least in a normal, non-COVID season.

Both players slot into the Pirates top 20 immediately which tells you almost as much about the Pirates system as it does the Nationals.

The Plan

It’s simple to state, harder to execute. If it were easy the league would have a whole lot more to point to than the Royals as an example of mission accomplished.

This team doesn’t have nearly enough prospect capital to envision success. You can focus on the obvious deficiencies like catching or left handed pitching but in reality it’s a numbers game. Let’s say that the Pirates expect all of their top 20 to be here and contributing by 2023. The likelihood that all 20 of those players make it is slim and doesn’t even add up to a complete team.

Now, Ben Cherington at least publicly is painting a picture that when he completes his phase one of reconstruction the system will have a glut of prospects climbing over top of each other to get to the show. Even then he expects holes and at that time Bob Nutting will allow him to spend money he is currently not spending.

Biggest problem, I don’t believe it. Mostly because I haven’t seen it. I saw a very good team in 2013-2015 that had a couple major holes that were left unfilled. Even that was talked about as an approach that would allow the club to continue to keep their eye on the future even as they were actively competing in the present. See the issue was, now never mattered, and that has to change.

Well, they never really accomplished either.

I can’t sit here and pretend I know any different, but I can say moves like this one show me that Ben Cherington is not going to pretend this team is a couple players away and he certainly isn’t entertaining that Bell was going to be part of it.

There will be more as Craig wrote earlier. These moves don’t mean everyone the club is moving has no value or can’t perform. It doesn’t even mean this club has nobody who could be part of the solution here, but the decisions are being forced by where a large chunk of them sit in their control. They can and maybe should extend a couple but most of them will be moved to bring in prospects. That’s just reality.

If they don’t find someone who wants to pay fair value for Joe Musgrove for instance, they could potentially decide he is worth having as a veteran on the club of the future. Extending him into (or through) the projected window might be a good play, but rest assured if they find a partner willing to ante up for him, he’s gone.

But the Team is Going to Stink in 2021

Yeah. Did you watch 2020? How about most of 2019? Yeah they’re going to stink and Josh Bell if he hit all season long like May of 2019 maybe makes them 10 games better and realistically gets himself traded by the deadline.

No team executive is going to come out and say “look, we don’t care about our record or your feelings next season” so I’ll do it for them. They don’t care about your feelings or their record. In fact it might be good to suck out loud again.

They may lose you, they may already have, but if the vision is true and the execution matches most of you will come back. If you don’t, you’ll be replaced as easily as Josh Bell will. Much the same, they won’t replace him or you in 2021, but if they do this right this will be little more than another reason to believe what writers and journalists like Craig and I have been telling you since Cherington was hired, this is a rebuild and not the half assed version we’ve seen for too many attempts.

Why Trade Bell At His Lowest Value?

Well, how do you know it’s his lowest value? To offset his decreased control by holding onto him the team would need him to really come out blazing and I mean really blazing because another good month bookended by the same ineptitude he’s displayed the majority of his career wouldn’t increase value, in fact it likely decreases.

Point is, it’s nowhere near a guarantee he adds value, in fact it’s a stretch to believe he adds at all.

Look at what the Pirates got for Starling Marte, then look at what the Diamondbacks got for Marte when they moved him to Florida. And Marte played well, he didn’t fall off a cliff, he just had almost a season less control and was moved to another club that has no chance of extending him. I won’t even rule out the Marlins flipping him again this season.

Sometimes you have to take the bird in hand method. This was one.

I Just Don’t Trust Nutting to Ever Spend and That’s All That Matters

There is a ton of truth there. He hasn’t spent on this club, at least not consistently. They have extended players to keep talent on the club but a big swing and miss like Polanco is akin to an anchor around their necks.

If you truly can’t see a way that Nutting opens the purse for Cherington when the team is close, who could tell you you’re wrong? That said, that’s the exact reason to root on Ben as he continues to revamp the system and restock the shelves because the more solutions he finds internally the less he’ll need to kick this thing over the edge when the window opens.

Prospects Aren’t Nothing

We traded Josh Bell for nothing just like Marte! No. Want major league talent in exchange, I’ll show you what that looks like, Cole for Moran, Martin, Feliz and Musgrove. That one trade actually helped build the clock this team is on for control, and those players tend to come with a defined ceiling. That’s not what you want when rebuilding, that’s what you get when you think you can find a way to return 4 mediocre players for one outstanding player.

Those moves have a place, look at what Boston got back for Mookie Betts. The difference is when the Red Sox want to extend Verdugo they can and will and their fans aren’t sitting around hoping he does well but not too well so they can afford him.

You can be mad that next year’s team isn’t as good but most baseball trades are built around the concept of time and potential, not direct drop in replacements.

In 1987 the Pirates traded All Star Catcher (and my personal favorite player) Tony Pena for Andy Van Slyke, catcher Mike LaValliere and pitcher Mike Dunne. I remember feeling they got nothing for our best player, the difference is as I adopted my new favorite player Mr. Van Slyke I absorbed the lesson that prospects will make an impact too.

More Pittsburgh Pirates Moves Are Upcoming

It’s the day after Christmas and we are finally over the hump in between potentially guaranteed moves and/or transactions during what had been a less than active off-season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the rest of MLB for that matter, prior to the Christmas Eve Trade of Josh Bell to the Washington Nationals. It is exactly 21 days since the Rule 5 Draft that occurred at the end of the 2020 Virtual Winter Meetings and only 19 days from the beginning of the delayed 2020-21 International Signing Period, which is set to open on January 15th.

Back on December 5th General Manager Ben Cherington made four picks and an acquisition during the Major and Minor League Portions of the Rule 5 Draft, garnering four new arms and a middle infielder for the Pirates Organization; including #20 Prospect Luis Oviedo and #21 Prospect Jose Soriano, according to MLB Pipeline. Since arriving in Pittsburgh, pitching depth has always been a primary focus of the majority of his acquisitions for the organization. In his identification of talent high ceiling prospects, overlooked players and those they believe they can get the most out of or unlock have taken priority.

This goal or focus of identifying and acquiring talent is a problematic one considering any scenario, however, when you are trying to project the potential of 16 year old kids, who you have been scouting since they were much younger, difficulty takes on a whole new meaning.

For those of you that are familiar with the International Bonus Signing Period, as well as the recent modifications that have been made, please bear with me as this will be little more than a review. However, if this is foreign concept to you, pay close attention.

The International Signing Period usually occurs from July 2nd to June 15th off the following year. However, however due to COVID-19 Pandemic changes were made as part of the March 26th agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, with the 2019-20 period being extended into October, The 2020-21 international signing period that was scheduled to begin on July 2nd, 2020 was pushed back to January 15, 2021, will now end on December 15, 2021. The start and end dates for the 2021-22 international signing period are also scheduled to move be moved back to Jan. 15th through December 15th. It was also agreed upon that International Bonus Pool Space could not be traded during the upcoming period, so the $5,899,600 is on a hard cap.

In order for a player to be eligible during the signing period he must reside outside of the United States, Canada or Puerto Rico and have not been enrolled in high school in any of those locations within the past calendar year. He must also be at least 16 years of age. Any player meeting that criteria becomes eligible to sign a Minor League contract with a Major League organization for a signing that does not exceed the pool space allotted to each team. Any player that signs for a total bonus of $10,000 or less do not count against a team’s allotted bonus pool.

Now that we are past the formalities, how the Pirates can approach this process is able to be fully addressed.

Back in February of this year, before everything went totally off the rails, the Pittsburgh Pirates had been linked to Top 10 International Prospect, then 16 year-old Outfielder Shalin Polanco from the Dominican Republic. Polanco, who will turn 17 shortly after the signing period begins on February 6th, is a lean lefty who shows plus hit (55 grade), run (60 grade) and fielding (55 grade) tools, while his power and arm are only a tick lower at a 50 grade. Thought to have a projectable body type (6’0” and 170 pounds) that could eventually add more power, he is patient at the plate and spreads the ball around the field. Currently, while training with Sandis Nin of the N&N Academy, he is showing the above average ability to play the center field position in the future.

Now I know that this won’t be the only international signing the Pirates make during this period, but it will most likely be the largest as Polanco is currently slated to receive in the ballpark of $2.5 million. And for anyone who is wondering where this money comes from, it is directly from the organization and not from MLB; and no you are not required to spend it.

As far as other potential moves that the Pirates could make during this stretch of the off-season, trades and free agent signings are always on the table; maybe now more than ever. With the trading of Bell other dominos could eventually fall; as Jason Mackey of the PG reported . Outside of these possible moves, the transactions I see happening in the near future are the Minor League signings with invitations to Spring Training, as well as the non-roster invitees from the Pirates Minor League System. As it currently stands, free agent Clay Holmes and Andrew Susac are the only ones on this list. At this point last year Phillip Evans and Socrates Brito, along with a few others, had already been bestowed with these honors.

I totally understand that for many of you these are not the most exciting moves that take place during the off-season, but for right now they are the only ones that are pretty much guaranteed. I also get that with the announcement of the White Sox set to ink the #1 International Prospect, Yoelqui Cespedes, to a deal, there is some disappointment overall; but this pipeline the Chicago South Siders have set up did not occur overnight, and I believe that Cherington has a goal in mind to make a similar channel for the Pirates in the very near future.

A Capital Move – Josh Bell Traded to Washington

We speculated, we guessed, we tried to find landing spots and finally, one of them panned out. Today the Pirates made a Christmas Eve move sending Josh Bell to the Washington Nationals for two pitching prospects.

Here is what I wrote about the potential of Washington as a landing spot back in November.

The Washington Nationals

The Nationals still have the pitching to make them feel part of the contention conversation, but the bats need help. Zimmerman has done well to play wherever they’ve put him but nobody is providing any kind of protection for Juan Soto in that lineup. Erik Thames factors in as well but he could play outfield as well and make a spot for the acquisition. Their system is pitching heavy at the top as all of their top ten consist of hurlers, most of which are pretty far away. This could fit in well with what Cherington has shown us is attractive to him.

Well, that’s exactly how it played out. This doesn’t make me Nostradamus I also had 4 other options on my list but when searching for trade homes it’s important to always look for what other teams need and if they have the capital you want to deal in.

Here’s the deal:

Eddy Yean is a 19 year old reliever out of the Dominican Republic and was the Nationals number 6 prospect. He has a 97 MPH fastball and has displayed decent control. His current ETA for MLB is 2023 which fits quite well doesn’t it.

Will Crowe is a 26 year old starting pitcher who is currently the Nationals number 3 prospect. He already underwent Tommy John surgery after his freshman year in college and after being drafted in the second round by Washington in 2018 put up a really solid rookie season winning Carolina League pitcher of the year.

He made his debut for Washington last season only appearing in 3 games and got lit up but he only had 10 games of AAA under his belt. The talent is there and he should be able to make the jump this year should the Pirates need him or want him to.

All in all, two top ten prospects, especially from this organization, is a win for the Pirates and while it hurts to see someone like Josh Bell go, this is a quality return.

Bell being traded speaks louder than any words Cherington could utter about his intentions for constructing the team.