With Derek Shelton giving a little bit of insight into his thought process concerning multiple players during his most recent media session, in lieu of his regular Winter Meeting availability, the powers that be have taken to interpreting exactly what this could mean for the Pirates as a whole, as well as some of its individual players. It’s only the middle of December, mind you, so of course he is only working with a pencil at the moment because you know, pencils have erasers. However, that won’t stop passionate Pittsburgh Pirates Fans already being up in arms.

The Pirates first game of consequence is currently scheduled to take place at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday April 1, 2021; although there has already been some talk about that being pushed back, for obvious reasons. As it presently stands Pittsburgh’s 40-man is full with a lot of decisions and/or moves left to be made via trades, assignments to AAA, free agent acquisitions, minor league contracts and potential DFA’s. Nevertheless for now, Shelton needed to answer some questions and give some insight as to how the roster might shake out.

Unfortunately for Pirates Fans, during this interview, they heard the news that shouldn’t really be a shock to anyone at this point; Polanco is penciled in to play right field. I get the sentiment of not wanting a player who struck out 37.4 % of the time last year and is currently hitting .200 in the Dominican Winter League to be starter no matter what to begin the year. However, there are only two choices; you let him play and hope that you get something in return or you have him ride the pine and have no shot of getting anything for him. It’s far from ideal, but it’s only for one more year, or less if things go right.

The next piece of information was Ke’Bryan Hayes at third, which is another revelation that shouldn’t surprise anyone. Still, I have my own little take on this situation, part of which is far from popular, while being extremely unlikely as well due to his performance over the last month of 2020 along with not wanting to upset an already despondent fan base.

Ke’Bryan Hayes, the man without a heartbeat, has not yet exceeded the service requirements to make him a free agent after the 2026 season. This means Ben Cherington has the power to manipulate his service time with the goal of maintaining an extra year of control of the budding superstar. This can be avoided by either signing him to an contract, buying out his arbitration years plus one or more, which is something I have previously suggested , or simply kicking the can down the road and dealing with it later on when it comes to arbitration or an extension. It would be an extremely unpopular decision to start a player such as Hayes in AAA for service manipulation, but it is something organizations that the Pirates could be emulating would do without giving it a second thought. And no I am not just talking about the A’s and Rays.

The next two players mentioned are the simplest and most straightforward, to a degree, in the forms of starting catcher Jacob Stalling and outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Like it or not, and I happen to, Stallings is your starting catcher for at least one more year. The Reynolds in the outfield comment leads to a little more unpacking. Sure we know he will be out there, but will it be left or center? For Shelton the answer may not be all that complicated if Adam Frazier and to a lesser degree Colin Moran (Josh Bell) are still around, as one of them could play left, and the other can play second; both positions suggested by Shelton for Frazier, who is penciled in at second. This more than likely makes Reynolds your starting centerfielder; the position he seemingly wants to, and can play, although I am not sure what that means for shortstop as it is one of the middle infield spots that is up in the air. Alas, this isn’t the only one, because if Moran and Bell are both there come opening day, and there is no DH, Shelton will have another problem.

The Bell/Moran Conundrum is one I tackled before , which breakdown as Bell at first base on opening day if there is no DH; with my preferred player, Moran, left floating around the infield and outfield.

Needless to say there is a lot that can happen between now and then, even so the Pirates, Shelton and Cherington will eventually have to make some tough decisions. For what it’s worth, with the players who are currently here, my starting lineup in no particular batting order would be; Moran at 1st, Frazier at 2nd, Gonzalez at SS, Evans at 3B, Reynolds in LF, Alford in CF, Polanco in RF and Stallings at C.

It’s obviously not my call, but I would manipulate Hayes service time, which is easy for me to say when it is not my decision to make. I am also starting Tucker in AAA, at either SS or in the outfield full time, although what really matters is his bat. As far as the choices for positions are concerned, they would come together a lot easier if I could trust Newman to field at SS, since I would like to get him on the field and could easily slide Gonzalez over to 3B or keep Evans there if he wins the job.

Now, I don’t think things will necessarily work themselves out in this fashion and I hope some moves are made to clear space; though as of this moment the roster remains full and before we know it Shelton will have to start using pen instead of the less permanent pencil.

As the situation currently stands the MLB Hot Stove has been more of a slow simmer rather than the rolling boil we have become accustomed to in previous years. As Chris pointed out in the most recent episode of Bucs In The Basement, this is the first time in around 20 years that a free agent in the top 20 of MLB Trade Rumors list has not been signed through this period of the off-season, following the Winter Meetings. And over the past few days, after recording on Monday evening, nothing has really changed. Across the landscape lower tier free agents continue to sign and minor trade moves occur with less than notable pieces exchanging hands. Sure people will try to point to the Lance Lynn Trade to the White Sox as a major move that has taken place; but even if I give you that one, which I am not sure I would, it is the glaring exception and not rule.

With the way things are going this could open up a litany of opportunities for General Manager Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates to take advantage of if he starts to ask and then ultimately answer the right questions. Instead of asking if a player should or should not be traded, they need to be figuring out when to trade, in an attempt to maximize value, and who the most likely trade partners. In previous years the how to trade players by drumming up interest to make them more appealing than the available free agents could also come into play, and it still could. I just don’t see it as being as much of a challenge as it has been prior to the current off-season.

Sure you could point to the rumors swirling surrounding teams being interested in signing available free agents, such as Tomoyuki Sugano of the NPB Yomiuri Giants, Julio Teheran, Marcus Semien, Liam Hendricks, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill; however at this point that is all they are, rumors. How much interest have you seen in Trevor Bauer or JT Realmuto that wasn’t drummed up by themselves of their agents. It is clearly a different market where the signing of Anthony DeSclafani by the Giants at $6 million for one year, Mike Zunino staying with the Rays for $3 million guaranteed and rather inconsequential trades between the Rangers and Reds or Mariners become headlines for days at a time because there is nothing else to report.

So how do Cherington and the Pirates make the decision on when to trade and who the most likely trade partners could be?; while remembering that Ke’Bryan Hayes and maybe a couple of other players are the only ones not on the table. Well, first of all there is no time like the present. I understand that many Pirates are possibly at the lowest trade values of their respective career, but I will only consider taking them off the block if you can guarantee me their value won’t decrease between now and the next trade deadline. Also, there are lower ranked farm systems, but there are no systems that are completely devoid of talent. I get that most people are targeting top 10 organizational prospects from loaded systems or those that are in the top 100 in all of MLB, and I can’t blame them. Just remember who Starling Marte got the Pirates a year ago; two prospects that many had never heard of prior to the deal, from a somewhat rejuvenated system thanks to the Goldschmidt and Grienke trades, who were not in the overall top 100 and only one of whom was in his own teams top 10. Yet somehow I am supposed to believe that every or any Pirates current trade chip is worth more.

Let me put it this way; if any team offers you a top 100 prospect for almost any Pirates player, and especially the ones that have been mentioned by myself and others, you take it and run. If not you listen and at least try to work out a deal. This is not saying that Cherington has to or should eventually make each and every deal, but he has to at the very least listen; seeing as I can’t think of too many untouchables that exist on a team that picked 7th in the MLB Draft this year and is set to pick #1 overall in the next.

Over the past few days my eyes and ears have been bombarded with discussions about the Pirates Closer for the 2021 season, and in some of instances the Closer of the Future. It all began on Sunday when the guys over at the North Shore Nine were having a Q&A with Matt Gajtka from Pittsburgh Sports Live. During the course of the conversation he unknowingly asked if Keone Kela was still on the team and followed it up with a statement about the bullpen not being something he focuses on at the present time. I am in agreement with Matt here, because the Pirates bullpen is near the bottom of the list of concerns I have for the ball club. Then on Monday I tuned into Dejan Kovacevic’s Pirates Daily Shot , which is something I suggest you all should do on a regular basis, only to hear about the Pirates Closer situation again.

After that I sat down for a dose of Pirates articles and blogs from beat reporters and amateurs alike. Yes, I read and listen to information other than my own. Almost immediately, staring me straight in the face was a post that asked me oWho Is The Pirates Closer Of The Future? over at the Bucco Cove. I couldn’t escape it. The next day I tuned into Derek Shelton’s media session media, only to hear DK ask Shelton about the Closer for 2021. I respect DK, I honestly do. If you don’t believe me go check out the accolades I bestowed upon him after a recent article. It’s nothing personal against anyone, I just couldn’t understand the obsession.

Then today came, and I finally reached my breaking point. As I listened to DK’s Daily Shot of Pirates, with the main topic being the exploration of Jameson Taillon’s potential role as a closer, my mind drifted back to an article that I wrote a little less than a year ago about the need for a Pirates, or any other team for that matter, to have a closer. Now some may say my opinion on the matter is a little jaded because of this previous piece, however, it is based on a decent amount of research on the topic and the usage of closers for all teams around Major League Baseball.

Before we get into the numbers, I always like to remind people that the “save” and the “closer” are completely made up statistics and/or terms. The designation of closer in the bullpen was not widely used until the early 1990’s and the idea of a save was developed in 1959 by a young writer named Jerome Holtzman, who laid out the rules for exactly what constituted one. To Holtzman a save was awarded to a pitcher if his team wins and he is not the winner of the contest and that he faced the tying or go ahead run. The only two exceptions were if the pitcher came into the final inning with a two-run lead and pitched a perfect inning or if he comes in with a three run lead and pitches two or more innings, finishes the game and does not give up the lead. Major League Baseball and other writers made adjustments to Holtzman’s requirements/guidelines over the next 15 years or so until the official definition of a save was set in 1975. The save rule as it stands today requires that the pitcher has to enter the game with the tying or go ahead run on the bases, at the plate or in the on deck circle and that when the pitcher comes into the game his team is ahead by 3 or fewer runs and pitches at least one inning. If a pitcher pitches at least three innings and does not qualify for the win, he can also be awarded the save. A central requirement for a save is that the pitcher must finish the game, so only one pitcher can earn a save.

I realize this got us nowhere near determining whether or not a closer is needed by the Pirates (or anyone else), but I feel it was a necessary sidebar to give everyone some perspective of the origins of the save and the closer position.

At this point in time I dove into the numbers and as a numbers guy it should be no surprise to anyone that I opened up FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, amongst other sites in an attempt to answer the question in the most educated way possible. I also looked back on the research I performed while writing my previous article, which focused a lot on the outcomes of the 2018 and 2019 seasons. During those years there was a split in philosophy as to how the closer position should be utilized among the most successful teams of the time. The St. Louis Cardinals used 3 different relievers in the closer role; Carlos Martinez (48 Games, 24 saves, 3 holds and 3 blown saves), Jordan Hicks (29 Games, 14 saves, 3 holds and 1 blown Save) and Andrew Miller (73 Games, 6 saves, 28 holds and 5 blown saves). The Yankees leaned on Aroldis Chapman (60 Games, 37 saves and 5 blown saves) for the overwhelming majority of their team’s saves. The Twins operated a bit of a time share between Taylor Rogers (60 Games, 30 saves, 10 holds and 6 blown saves) and Blake Porter (37 Games, 10 saves, 9 holds and 1 blown Save). The Brewers called on Josh Hader (61 Games, 37 saves, 6 holds and 7 blown saves) more often than not, in spite of some struggles. And finally, the Rays used a closer by committee approach that involving 11 different pitchers. Emilio Pagan (20 saves, 7 holds and 8 blown saves), Diego Castillo (8 saves, 17 holds and 2 blown saves) and Jose Alvarado (7 saves, 8 holds and 2 blown saves) led the way, while 8 other pitchers combined for 11 saves, 69 holds and 9 blown saves.

As far as the calculations for the 2020 season go, it was a little bit of a crapshoot. However, there is still knowledge that can be gained if you focus on two separate statistics, WPA (Win Probability Added) and SVO (Save Opportunity), while giving some credence to SV% (Save Percentage) and Appearances as well.

In 2020 nine relief pitchers accumulated double digit saves, for a total of 101 between them in 162 appearances. Of the 162 appearances they had a save opportunity 130 times, so in the end the SV% of these relievers works out to 77.7%. The fact that not every appearance was a save opportunity, high leverage or successful (not that anyone expects that) probably explains why only three of the nine showed up in the top ten of WPA, the highest being Alex Colome of the White Sox who recorded 12 saves in 13 opportunities and 21 appearances; good for a WPA of 2.11. Brand Hand, who was perfect in his 16 save opportunities, leading the league saves, over 23 appearances barely made the top 10 with a 1.27 WPA or just slightly above average. So, chances are Colome was either put into more high leverage situations when he wasn’t closing or was just more successful in his non-save situations; because we know many times designated closers are put into situations just so they don’t have to go to long between appearances.

As far as the Pirates are concerned their leader in saves was Richard Rodriguez with 4 in 24 appearances and 5 opportunities. However, he did not have their highest WPA. That honor goes to Geoff Hartlieb, who came in at 27th amongst relievers at .76, while RichRod was second at .59. And if you are curious who was third, Sam Howard holds that honor at -.61. As a bullpen, they earned a combined -5.14 WPA, which isn’t much of surprise.

Based on all of this research, in 2018 and 2019, there was almost equal success deploying an assigned closer versus utilizing multiple relievers, as well as the fact that the closer was often used in situations where a save was not the ultimate goal. The same thing rings true in the truncated 2020 season, as even the most successful closer in Major League Baseball was not deployed in enough high leverage situations to allow him to influence the game more than a barely above average reliever. And in some instances, if a reliever is forced into the closer role it can have a detrimental effect on the game. Houston Astros relief pitcher Ryan Pressly had just as many save opportunities as Hand and ranked 6th in total saves, but earned a -.77 WPA.

Now I know I probably didn’t change anyone’s mind as to whether or not the Pirates should have a closer or even who it should be, I just hope everyone can be a little more open-minded about not forcing players into roles that may not be a part of the Pirates’ plans; whatever those plans might be. Also, maybe someone can explain to me why this became such a popular topic in middle of December.

As you are thinking about that, first and foremost, to those of you who say that Dejan, North Shore Nine, Matt Gajtka, Pittsburgh Sports Live and Bucco Cove are more reputable and know more than me, you are probably right and it’s why I listen to and/or read a lot of things other than what I put out.

Furthermore, to those of you who say that the Pirates don’t need a closer because they aren’t going to be in that many games anyway, this is not anywhere near the point of this article.

And finally to those of you who say I forgot to mention Rob Biertempfel’s article on the subject; first of all it came out after I started typing and had no bearing on my reasoning for writing this article and secondly I stopped paying to go behind The Athletic wall a few months back.