The Pirates Should Do More

I understand what this club is doing, anyone who’s read my work knows that. It’s a rebuild and it really doesn’t matter to me if they say it or not, but it certainly is. I’m sure there are some people out there who hear the team say build instead and are somehow placated but how you could be a Pirates fan and be fooled by that I’ll never know.

Now, because I understand its a rebuild, I also understand that functionally it doesn’t matter who they sign or how much money they cost.

Here’s the plan that has been roughly advanced, and I say roughly because if they aren’t even going to say the word why would we expect that the “plan” would be clearly outlined? The team will evaluate who is here, add talent to the minor league system and supposedly spend money when the team is close.

That sounds nice, it even sounds logical, but the team misses the mark on a couple concepts here, and so do fans for that matter.

From the fan standpoint, seeing payroll as the only way to see a winning club is just wrong. The payroll is insanely low right now and that’s while paying over 11 million for one player, Polanco. There is quite possibly no easier way to explain that the payroll number isn’t everything than to point out that Polanco makes double what his next closest compadre pulls in.

If you gave Ben Cherington 100 million tomorrow and said go nuts they could certainly improve but winning requires developing some talent too.

The Pirates you see right now are a product of a failed rebuild.

Sure, Neal never said the word either and he stunted the very effort he was undertaking when he traded for Chris Archer, but make no mistake, that’s what they were trying to pull off.

If you really want the truth, this team’s biggest problem is they, at least to this point, never go far enough. When Huntington traded Cole and Cutch, everyone else of value should have followed. Instead they tried to pretend Marte and Taillon would step right up and they’d never have to dip.

Clearly wrong and it didn’t take the prism of history to get there. Hey, they didn’t fire the guy for doing a great job after all.

Now Ben Cherington is here and yes he has the same owner.

If they’re to be believed, if Ben thought he was a piece or two away he could spend whatever the mythological budget would be to get the job done. We of course don’t know what that number is just like the Dodgers don’t, but we have some clue. Bob has never given them much to work with, the peak being in 2017 where the opening day roster had them around 100 million. Purely for perspective that was good for 23rd in the league and about 132 million less than the top spending Dodgers.

A big wrinkle there is those numbers are based on the overall payroll, look at just the 25-man figures and you see another major difference, the Pirates payroll when you look at it that way was only 92 million give or take while the Dodgers sat at 155 million. Still a wide span but what this shows is the Dodgers had roughly 120 million in dead money while the Bucs had 8.

You can look all this up and you’ll find different numbers but the proportions won’t change much. I found about 10 different figures out there so if you want to fight over a few nickels that might have been missed, have at it, just find someone who cares first.

That’s a very long way of saying, around 100 million is probably close to what Bob is comfortable spending, for a winner. That’s not enough, it won’t ever be enough unless they build most of the team from their own development system and augment.

That’s what this was supposed to be but it didn’t work. Now they’re saddled with an incredibly low payroll, probably as low as 55 million if they were to move nobody. I fully expect them to do so and I don’t expect salary to come back.

They have about 18 million in committed payroll, meaning contracted and locked in. Everything else is MLB minimums or expected arbitration awards.

That’s nothing in the grand scheme of baseball, but it probably won’t go up next season either. Polanco’s ouster alone will put 8.5 million back in their pocket after the buyout.

If Ben were to decide hey, I’ve got 45 million to play with, I’m sure he’d be allowed to spend it but it wouldn’t bring a winner. And who would be jettisoned for nothing? There are clear areas where they could look to upgrade immediately like center field, or first base, even catcher, but look at the team, does that add up?

We know they’d like to make some trades and while its easier to say Bob is ordering payroll reduction, critically look at this club and understand why this is happening.

They need new players, better players, but signing new players and cutting what they have for nothing in return would leave the system right where it is. Gradually improving through the draft every year but generally getting nothing for players is a losing proposition.

Now, I’ve explained why they won’t and shouldn’t try to spend up to their admitted cheap ceiling but does that mean they shouldn’t spend anything?

No.

There are smart plays out there and reasons to add to the club beyond “trying to win” or “proving to the fans” no this team needs to spend a bit just to keep their system from being prematurely tested.

You can’t look at 2020 with any seriousness for many things. One thing you can absolutely take away however is that the system has no answers if the club needs them. Last season when the Pirates called up Nick Mears I remember calling Craig (Toth) my partner because I remembered he wrote a piece about Nick and I wanted to understand why a guy who just reached AA was one of the first call ups. I’ll never forget what he said. He was happy for Nick but knew it was way too early and he hoped it didn’t hurt his progression.

It’s not that the Pirates have nothing in the system, it’s that they are all so far away. AAA is really barren, in fact the Pirates have maybe two players who could make their debut in 2021, O’neil Cruz and Rodolfo Castro. Beyond that, you have to go back to the AA level.

Part of that is going to change because they’ll be forced to promote some guys but that won’t make them MLB ready. They have a lot of options in the bullpen at the MLB level but locking in the 25 man will cause some of those options to be cut and lost so in many ways the apparent depth is faux.

All that being said, affordable depth, hell I’ll say it, affordable upgrades are out there. The Pirates desperately need outfield help and I don’t say that because I’m assuming Polanco stinks (although it’s not exactly a long odds bet) or because I think Bryan Reynolds is what we saw in 2020. It’s not even that I assume Anthony Alford won’t turn out to be a decent player. Its because I can’t see getting through a season with the four options they have including Jared Oliva.

David Dahl signed with the Texas Rangers for one year at 3 million dollars. Hunter Renfroe signed with the Red Sox for 3.1 Million with up to 600K in incentives. These are just two players, neither of them are sure fire upgrades but both have pedigree and have tasted success. Both are relatively cheap. Both would ensure the Pirates don’t have to rely on their empty system to produce help. Both could turn into nice assets to move for prospects at the deadline which would accelerate the prospect building effort.

I’m not married to these guys, but these are exactly the types of players the Pirates should be looking to add this year and not so you feel better about the payroll, it’s more about protecting the fragile system.

Money isn’t going to fix that. If you want to look back to the Archer deal and believe the system would be better had it not happened, I’d remind you there is only one player left in the deal who hasn’t entrenched themselves at the MLB level and this would still be an issue.

How bad is the system? Well put it this way, when you pick up two guys in the Rule 5 draft and they jump right into your top 20-21 prospect list, you have a problem.

I trust Ben to fix the system, he already has improved the top prospect core in his first year and I expect him to continue with that work but you don’t get bonus points for spending as little as possible on the way.

Many will harken back to Ben saying they would reinvest what they aren’t spending now when the time comes to add payroll. Well, I’ll believe it when I see it. If you tell me that 100 million is the baseline, and this year’s payroll will sit around 55-60 million, technically that should mean he has 40 million in the proverbial bank for later right?

Does anyone believe that?

I don’t, and more importantly, I don’t need to in order to believe the job can be done here if executed correctly.

So rather than save nickels on the way there and hope one day all the ‘savings’ are handed back to the GM to kick it over the edge, I say spend a little more now on players like Dahl and Renfroe to protect the system, bring in tradeable assets or worst case be surprised by the performance of some guys to the point of considering extensions.

The Pirates spent most of the 2010’s with a fairly steady payroll so they can do it.

Now don’t get me wrong, sometimes that player I’m talking about ends up looking like John Jaso or Lonnie Chisenhall, it’s not always a win. Unless the win you’re looking for is not forcing Travis Swaggerty to be ready in 2021 because he won’t be even if he has to be.

I hate to say it’s not about winning because at the end of the day eventually that has to be the goal. But I’m going to say these suggestions aren’t geared toward winning right now, they’re more about stemming the tide of MLB ready gaps that the club needs to get past which will at least stretch into 2022 before it starts to shake out a bit.

It also could prevent the embarrassments we’ve seen in recent years where you actually could make an argument that your back up catcher is a better option than three members of the bullpen.

If you look at this roster and think it stinks, I’ll tell you yes but left untouched it will improve. But this team is one outfield injury away from being forced into some very bad decisions and if I’m Cherington and knew I could avoid it by signing a couple legit players, I happily do it. I’d like to think he isn’t dumb enough to believe he’s got a Nutting savings account collecting interest.

What Do You Need to See To Believe Derek Shelton is the Right Guy?

First of all I’m as guilty as anyone. I feel like I’ve spent the past two or three months playing the short sample size police, but I have not been so kind to the coach.

Part of that is I can’t really give him credit for being rusty, I don’t think coaches get to claim they started off slow. I know his team wasn’t good and injured on top of that but man I think I disagreed with more Shelton moves in those 60 games than all 10 years of Hurdle.

I asked this question on Twitter yesterday and while that platform can be a cesspool of hate and despair I may have one of the smartest and most measured group of followers out there. Let’s talk about some of the answers here because I didn’t ask the question looking for a specific answer as much as real curiosity as to whether people were already writing him off or if he had a path beyond a good record.

Tom jumped in right away. Let’s parse this out. Injury and just not enough good options probably account for the first two points. The second part, I’m sorry Tom, that’s baseball now. Nolan Ryan isn’t coming back, I miss it too.

Next up is Wayne

Wayne has some very specific asks. As you can see the leave the starter in is a bit of a theme. I do think fans tended to miss the very real conditioning problem the Spring Training start and stop had on arms all over the league, but I watched the games too and it sure seemed like our competition had pitchers going much deeper. Tucker at short is something many of us have been questioning. Can’t say I disagree with that but I also don’t know how much of that whole thing was Shelton.

I love this answer from Benjamin

I love it because it gives very specific areas of focus. Somehow get the fielding percentage to improve (that would show coaching) and prevent those nasty double digit losing streaks. Both of those would help show he’s got the chops in my mind.

Mike has a very simple ask…

This was something I never really understood, because while I could see it was a season of evaluation, to me that never meant let’s never let these guys get a rhythm.

Next we have possibly the most fair ask of them all and it comes from a guy who follows both the Blue Jays and the Bucs.

Now, I already mentioned to Steve I don’t think I’d take consistency or a steadying hand from what I watched in 2020 but his last line is perhaps where I realistically fall.

Any signs of progress.

More importantly, I’d like to see progress rewarded. If Hayes goes 4-5 with two doubles, a homer and a couple singles and you planned to sit him tomorrow, maybe don’t. If he isn’t nursing an injury, let him play. If a pitcher is sitting at 80 pitches and has it working, let’s see if he can get the next set of outs.

If anything I think while baseball was headed in the direction of what we watched Shelton do last season, we had Clint Hurdle and crew here in Pittsburgh really only scratching the surface of the way players are coached today.

In other words, Shelton was a shock to the system because Hurdle never bent toward it enough to expect it. I liked it if I’m honest, Hurdle was an old school baseball man trying to find a way to deal with nerds telling him how to do his job. Not enough nerds mind you, the Pirates were loathed to fully commit to analytics outside of insane shifts.

Here’s my issue though, if you’re going to stake your reputation on analytics you can’t trust them halfway. You can’t make 80% of the calls based on the numbers and then make 20% based on gut. It doesn’t work that way.

Remember in the World Series when everyone got hot at Tampa for pulling Snell while he was pitching a gem? Well, that’s an example of 100% adoption of the analytics department guidance. They say his number stink after he’s faced a lineup twice, and while they might have been wrong that night, playing the percentages got them there.

And I should say, I hated the move. I guess if I’m honest I myself am loathed to fully accept the analytics side of the game.

All of that being said, I don’t think analytics made Shelton put up about 56 different lineups in a 60 game season. If you think about it, that’s kind of impossible as there was no data to actually use.

I don’t think it had much to do with the ability to win a game and instead bringing Del Pozo in to face the heart of the order while viable, rested options sat looking helpless through the bullpen fencing.

2020 was the year of starters burying their head in their hands on the bench.

So what do I expect? Well not winning for starters, I really can’t hold him up to that standard until such a time as I feel he has the players to do it. But I do expect to start being able to predict his moves more frequently.

I’m also curious as hell how he’ll handle the National League style game. He rarely pinch hit last season and the National League with no DH presents much more opportunity for moves like that. Should be an interesting challenge even if only for one more year.

There’s a lot of wrinkles we’ll be looking for in 2021, but possibly none more important than seeing if the Pirates hired the right guy to manage this ball club.

Five Thoughts at Five 12-12-20

The Pirates finally made some moves this week as the Rule Five Draft provided some much needed depth for the club. Here are some other topics floating around in my head as the rumor mill quickly goes back to near silent.

1. Maybe We Need to Stop Counting Down

MLB has already pushed forward the idea that they could push the season opener back to May. Now, I suppose that would move pitchers and catchers back a month as well, but understandably the players would like to know sooner than later because they tend to be creatures of habit and would like to be able to start their schedule of conditioning and building up. The stated intent was to afford time for the vaccine to be distributed and administered and while this might sound like a jaded take, it probably has more to do with butts in seats.

2. David Dahl is a Missed Opportunity

Look, Dahl isn’t a superstar. Every team in the league just had an opportunity to get him for free and instead chose to let him go to free agency rather than pay his commonly expected arbitration figure. Yesterday he reached an agreement with the Texas Rangers on a one year deal worth 3 million bucks.

David is exactly the type of player the Pirates should be in on early in the process. Three million is nothing, even for the Pirates. Worst case scenario, he stinks or gets hurt and the Pirates get nothing out of it beyond showing fans they care about the product on the way to the goal. Best case he works out well and you either explore an extension or flip him for prospects. It’s really a win-win.

If you don’t like Dahl, ok, it’s not really an argument about this one player as much as hoping the team was in on talks here and the others like him. The outfield depth is absolutely non-existent and if they don’t address it, very real possibility they have to dip into completely unprepared AA players.

3. Money is Almost Always an Issue

Nobody is arguing that Bob Nutting spends enough money, but right now it’s not important. I mean, it is if you’re waiting for the mythological day when he does, but this team and the stage they’re in simply doesn’t dictate spending much.

The premise is simple, save money, trade players, acquire top end young talent, spend when those players start getting there. Putting it in action is where the plan runs into issues for the fans.

Back in 2016 the Pirates set their record for payroll and even that wasn’t an impressive number, but the payroll did rise every season from 2011-2016, and it netted the club three playoff seasons consecutively. Huntington and Nutting failed through inaction in 2016. They needed to definitively pick a lane and go. Either spend and truly keep a competitive team on the field or don’t and enter into the rebuild that was clearly on the horizon.

If they had chosen either there could have been one more year in the hunt or we could be just now reaping the reward of the painful choice. Now, you don’t have to believe Nutting will let Ben do his job when the time comes, I’ve got a healthy dose of that thought process in me for sure, but right now, it truly doesn’t matter.

4. The Bullpen Will Present Some Tough Choices

First of all, good. The Bullpen was a beat up mess last season and we saw far too many unprepared and unseasoned players brought in to act as warm bodies. There were some finds though, Howard, Turley, even Hartlieb counts. Some of the Rule 5 picks as well as health will create some very tough choices.

Sounds weird for a team many would and have said have no pitching right? Well look back at the piece I wrote about the Pirates doing nothing. In that piece I already had some tough choices outlined and I decided to leave Kyle Crick and Blake Cederlind off my final roster. The two pickups could create more questions one of which could be JT Brubaker who more than proved he belongs.

Of course the Pirates will make trades, or at least should, but even given that, the bullpen has more depth than it has in recent years.

5. The Yankee Rumors are Utter Crap

I’m not saying they won’t make a deal with the Yankees, but not the ones being rumored. I touched on this a bit in the rumors piece earlier this week but it’s actually gotten even more silly since. And as much as I love the guy, Bob Pompeani simply doesn’t understand how baseball or the Pirates operate any more. Sometimes diversity precludes expertise. It actually hurts my head to see the top sports guy in town buy into completely nonsensical trades.

2020 Season in Review: Best Hitter and Pitcher in Pittsburgh

At the end of the 2020 season, the Baseball Writers Association of America voted for a few awards when it came to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The awards were the Clemente Award, which signifies the Pirates MVP for the whole season, as well as the Steve Blass Award, which is awarded to the best Pirates pitcher in the opinion of the writers. The final award was the Chuck Tanner Award, which Jacob Stallings won for the best media cooperation on the team. 

According to the voters, Jacob Stallings was the Pirates’ overall MVP and Steven Brault was the best pitcher, and Brault’s case was boosted by some very impressive starts towards the end of the season. Now that I’ve had a few months to digest it, I’ll be looking at some other candidates who could have been in the conversation for these awards (Clemente and Blass) and then I’ll decide if I think the BBWAA made the right choice.

Clemente Award (Pirates MVP)

Winner:Jacob Stallings

If I told you last year that Jacob Stallings would be the Pittsburgh Pirates’ MVP in 2020, you would have laughed and shaken your head by telling me that Bryan Reynolds was going to hit under .200 too. Well, both of those things happened, and while Reynolds having the worst season of his career is unbelievable, I’m here to talk about Stallings’ unpredictable season. Stallings was designated for assignment multiple times over the last few years, and was even outrighted off the Pirates’ 40-man roster for a time last year. His experience in the big leagues was limited to mostly September callups, with the most games he’s played before 2019 being 14, in the 2018 season. Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz were the tandem for a few years prior, and it seemed like there was no way Stallings was ever going to be more than a 3rd catcher in the system. Instead, Cervelli got a few more concussions which probably ended his professional career, and Diaz stopped hitting and Jacob Stallings started to get most of the starts in the final months of the 2019 season. Hurdle put trust in Stallings, and he rewarded him by not only hitting at solid .262 with 6 home runs and 13 RBIs in 71 total games. He impressed Derek Shelton and the new coaching staff enough to earn the starting job, with not much competition added except for Luke Maile and John Ryan Murphy.

Stallings started his 2020 season off with a big hit that knocked in two on Opening Day, and he just kept on rolling after that. In 18 August games, Stallings had the stretch of his life offensively, collecting 20 hits in 51 at-bats with 10 RBIs and 4 extra-base hits. This was rare for the catcher known for his Gold-Gold caliber defense. Also impressive is the fact that Stallings was able to get himself as far as fifth in the lineup. I know, the Pirates lineup options are not the best, but on a normal day Stallings was in the 8-hole, so it was probably a personal accomplishment mixed with a ton of trust in production from the coaching staff. Of course it went a little downhill in September when Stallings only managed to get 9 hits in 57 at-bats, but he ended with a respectable .248 average when it was all said and done. 

While he had solid offensive production, Stallings’ defensive production was once again elite. Stallings was able to get 1 in 3 attempted base-stealers, and he also had +7 DRS (defensive runs saved), 2nd in the MLB to only Tucker Barnhart of Cincinnati. Stallings’ 2.3 framing runs saved was also among the best in the MLB. His defense was one of the main reasons he won over the trust of Chris Archer, then Joe Musgrove, and eventually the whole pitching staff last year. While Stallings didn’t win the Gold Glove this year, he should be in the mix year after year as long as he remains a starter at the catcher position.

People who should have been considered:

Colin Moran

Allow me to go back to the pre-season speculation. Pirates fans and writers knew the inevitable was going to happen at some point during the 2020 season. We were going to see the team’s top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes after a few months in Triple-A. Hayes had struggled there the year before. There were also some extremists who wanted to see Hayes on Opening Day because of Colin Moran’s defense (or lack thereof). I honestly don’t get that as Moran has hit about .280 the two seasons prior to this one with 11 and 13 homers. The universal DH would allow Moran to see less time in the field and to focus on improving his power. 

Moran started out the season scorching hot, with 4 homers in the first week of the season, and then also hit a long ball in his 8th game of the season. At one point he was tied for the league lead in home runs. After August 1st, he only hit one homer and he hit .220 overall in August. Moran’s beginning of September went better, going 4-11 with a home run in a series with the Cubs. Just like the month of August, Colin Moran went into a slump for almost the entire month of September. In his final five games of the season, he hit 2 home runs while going 7-20 and driving in 5. Four of those RBIs came in one game. Overall, Moran managed a decent .242 batting average with 10 home runs and 23 RBIs. On the field, he only played 4 games at third base, and 24 over at first base, as well as 26 as the designated hitter. Moran became a lineup mainstay, getting the majority of the time at first due to Josh Bell’s huge defensive struggles. 

Ke’Bryan Hayes

When Ke’Bryan Hayes was called up, the Pirates were at a 10-22 record and many fans were fuming at Ben Cherington and the front office because of the moves he made, or the ones he did not make for the team. Hayes had been hyped up as the number one prospect in Pittsburgh’s organization for at least a few years, along with Mitch Keller. The knock on Hayes had always been that his defense would be Gold Glove-level every year, but when it came to hitting he was always lacking both consistent contact and power, shown by his .265 average and 10 home runs in 110 games at Triple-A Indianapolis. And on the night of September 1st, he delivered with a double and a game tying homer against the Chicago Cubs and that gave all of the cardboard cutouts in attendance along with all the real people watching at home that glimmer of hope they were looking for and a glimpse into a (hopefully) bright future. 

Even after that game, there were still people from all over saying that it had to have been a fluke, it wasn’t sustainable, and it wasn’t proven. If they wanted proof, they could not have gotten any more proof than what Ke’Bryan Hayes did in the month of September, in which he played 24 games. Overall, he hit .376, which was impressive enough, but his on-base percentage was .442 and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .450. Obviously this is unsustainable over a full 162 game season, but if he could get anything close it would be impressive. Hayes also put up unheard of numbers in the final week, going 14-27 with 2 home runs. Another thing that stuck out to me was the quality of the at-bats. I mean, 6 or 7 pitches every time he stepped to the plate, and even if Hayes struck out, you knew that he battled before going down. Hayes actually got one first-place vote for the Clemente Award. 

So the question is, did the BBWAA make the right choice? When it comes to the Pirates, they didn’t really have many options because the team didn’t really hit that much. I think Hayes would definitely be the choice had he been on the roster in August, but just like the Rookie of the Year, he isn’t the choice because of the lack of games played. Stallings gets my vote, but if Hayes played 10 more games he wins easily. 

Steve Blass Award (Best Pitcher)

Winner: Steven Brault

The eventual winner of the award, Brault didn’t even begin the season as a mainstay in the starting rotation. Instead, Derek Shelton opted with the piggyback strategy with Chad Kuhl, who was coming off Tommy John Surgery, and Steven Brault. It was implemented for three games, and in one of those games Brault had a perfect game going, and was lifted for Kuhl who got rocked almost immediately. Now starting on his own, Brault delivered some solid starts to a rotation that wasn’t good in 2020. His final two starts of the season were the most impressive, as Brault pitched a 1-run complete game in his penultimate start, and seven shutout innings in his final game of the campaign. Brault said his last two starts went so well because he didn’t shake off Jacob Stallings once. This is just another example of Stallings having full trust and confidence from his pitching staff, which was part of the reason he got team MVP. Not a surprise, but Brault did have the best ERA out of all the starters on the team, at 3.38. Also, Brault has been gaining trade interest from other teams, so if he does get traded, he could bring in a decent haul, especially since he’s a lefty. And even if he doesn’t, Brault would be a strong candidate for the rotation, possibly as a 4th or 5th starter or a long reliever. 

People who should have been considered:

Joe Musgrove

As with everything in 2020, pitching was a little bit different, as pitchers didn’t get anywhere near the same workload as they would have in a 162 game schedule. For example, now former Pirates pitcher Trevor Williams made 11 starts, the most on the team. In Musgrove’s case, he was only able to start 8 games due to a triceps injury. He made his first Opening Day start as well, pitching a solid 5.2 innings and yielding 3 earned runs along the way. He recreated the exact same statline in his next outing, too. Musgrove got shelled by the Twins (5 ER) in his lone August start, before landing on the injured list and not returning until the beginning of September. Musgrove’s first three starts in September were more of the same, pitching a total of 12 innings while allowing 6 runs. After being pretty inconsistent, he pitched 13 shutout innings in his final two starts of the season. Thanks to those games, Musgrove finished with a very respectable 3.86 ERA, while improving his offseason trade value at the same time. 

Richard Rodriguez

In a bullpen that included Dovydas Neverauskas, Tyler Bashlor, and Miguel Del Pozo in 2020, Richard Rodriguez was actually one of the bright spots in Pittsburgh this season. In pure RichRod fashion, it wasn’t lights out all the time, and if you don’t remember, he pitched one of the worst wild pitches of all time (look it up if you haven’t seen it, you won’t regret it). Rodriguez’s first outing on Opening Day was rough, as he allowed 2 runs and a longball, something he struggled heavily with at times in 2019. He started August pitching pretty well, only giving up runs in two of his first 8 outings. That was followed up with two consecutive games where Rodriguez gave up 4 runs (3 earned). Once he got into September, Rodriguez was back to his dominant ways, not allowing a single run in 9.2 innings pitched. He also struck out 16 in the same span. On top of that, Rodriguez was able to convert on 4 of his 5 late-season save opportunities after Nick Burdi went down with what turned out to be another major injury. His 2.70 ERA in 24 games was the best in the Pirates’ bullpen by far, and he could possibly be the closer next season for this team.

So who was the most deserving of this award? Ten of the fourteen voters ended up going with Brault, and the other four voters went with Richard Rodriguez. As much as I don’t want to pick a reliever for this award, I would have probably voted for RichRod. I know Steven Brault had an impressive finish to the season, but he was really inconsistent before that. Rodriguez, on the other hand, was extremely consistent, which was great to see considering the performances from the other pitchers in the ‘pen. I can see both sides of the argument and obviously there weren’t many choices, but Rodriguez seemed like the better choice. 

Cherington Smartly Stocks Up On Pitching In The Rule 5 Draft

Prior to a little after 12 PM EST the 2020 Winter Meetings had been fairly quiet for General Manager Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sure there were some trade rumors, as Gary wrote about yesterday , but those are to be expected during this time of year; even when they involve potentially unexpected pieces, Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon. To me this is just Cherington doing his due diligence, which is exactly what he said he was going to do. After a 19-41 last place season, almost no one should be untouchable. However, that seems like another article in itself. For today the focus needs to be on the Rule 5 Draft, and more importantly Cherington’s selections and overall approach to the process.

Coming into yesterday many experts and amateurs, myself included, had made some predictions as to how Cherington should proceed in at least the Major League Portion of the Rule 5. Most of the focus was on pitching prospects, but there was also time taken to explore the options in the outfield and infield as well. Some pointed toward the catchers left unprotected by their respective teams, but as I held firm the entire time, I never really saw this a realistic possibility. In the end Cherington stayed true to his course, just as he had in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft, by selecting 4 pitchers and one position player in the Major and Minor League Portions; although he technically selected 5 back in June.

To Cherington, since arriving in Pittsburgh, pitching depth has always been a primary focus of the majority of his acquisitions for the organization. In his identification of talent high ceiling prospects, overlooked players and those they believe they can get the most out of or unlock have taken priority. The first overall pick of the Rule 5 checks most, if not all of these boxes.

Jose Soriano had been ranked as the Angels #9 Prospect by MLB Pipeline as recent as the preseason 2020 rankings and still sits as the 14th best prospect in the system, with a 40+ Future Value according to Fangraphs. Having undergone Tommy John surgery in February of 2020, this was actually a pretty savvy selection on the part of Cherington. He will eventually be able to move Soriano to the IL, which will clear a spot on the team’s 40-Man. However, this is not a place he can stay for the entirety of the season, as a player has to be listed on the team’s active roster for a portion of the season he is drafted, just not the entire 90 days. For example if he only makes it to the active roster for 65 days, he has to be held on the active roster for 35 days in his second season.

I have seen many people mention the Pirates December 2017 acquisition of Nick Burdi during the Rule 5 as to how they can handle Soriano’s situation; and to a degree there reasoning is correct. But most forget about Burdi’s rehab assignments at Bradenton, Altoona and Indianapolis from June to August of 2018, followed by his 1.1 innings and accompanying 20.35 ERA from September of that year. Almost all skip past this to the agonizing day when his injury occurred in April of the following year.

Taking all of this into consideration, it is still an extremely smart move on Cherington’s part. Prior to the TJ surgery that took away Soriano’s 2020 season he had earned a 2.51 ERA and 1.324 WHIP, while striking out 92 batters in 82.1 innings, across Rookie and Low A levels. He posses an above average (55/60 grade) fastball that averages 96 mph and had top out in the triple digits and a curveball (50/55 grade) that he can really spin. He also started to lean on his changeup (30/40 grade) more beginning in 2018. His major concern has been his command as he walked 51 batters in 2019, at a rate of 5.6 per 9 innings.

After the Pirates passed on their second round pick in the MLB Portion, I was slightly confused, due to the fact that Soriano would not be available for at least the beginning of 2021. My perplexed state didn’t last long as it was announced that the Pirates would be acquiring the Mets first round selection, Luis Oviedo, in a trade for cash considerations. In an apparent gentlemen’s agreement New York selected, Oviedo, who the Pirates were more than likely targeting; possibly with their second round pick.

Oviedo had been a Rule 5 target listed by many a year ago, but a back injury, sporadic velocity on his pitches and a disappointing 2019 campaign caused him to be passed over. After entering the season looking to take a step forward, checking in as the Cleveland Indians #14 Prospect; Oviedo posted a 5.38 ERA and 1.379 WHIP, with 7.1 K/9, as compared to 11.4 the year before. In addition, he also saw his W/9 rise from 1.9 to 4.1. When he is at his best, a 60 grade fastball sits in the mid-90’s; peaking at 98 mph with deceptive natural sink. He pairs this with three average to above pitches in his curveball, slider and curveball; projecting as a solid #3 in any rotation.

Following two solid acquisitions for the current roster, I was curious as to how Cherington would approach the Minor League Portion of the Rule 5; and believe me I wasn’t disappointed, I was actually impressed. The Pirates kicked off the first round by selecting Shea Spitzbarth from the Dodgers organization. Back in 2019 Spitzbarth had reached AAA, but struggled to adjust. After starting the year in AA-Tulsa with a 2.05 ERA, a 1.023 and 60 strike outs in 44 innings for the Drillers, he saw his ERA rise to 8.18 and his WHIP balloon to 1.727, but his K/9 only fall from 12.3 to 11.9. However, Spitzbarth didn’t let this or even the shutdown stop his drive for the majors as he spent the summer pitching for Butchy’s Heat in the Mid-Island Men’s League, located close to home in Staten Island, New York.

The Pirates next pick would be a break from the pitchers in the form of Cincinnati Reds Utility Infielder, Shortstop by trade, Claudio Finol. Finol had impressed at Advanced Rookie in 2018 at the age of only 18 by batting .294. Patient at the plate his K% has topped out at 16.8%, while he has steadily raised his walk rate to 6.6%. At only 20 years old he has plenty of time to hone his skills even further, but is not expected to gain an exorbitant amount of power; projected as a defense first player moving forward.

The subsequent choice by Cherington of Jeffrey Passantino from the rival Cubs got them right back on the pitching path in an attempt to further build the minors with depth at the position. Passantino is another player that climbed the ranks of the Minor Leagues in 2019, landing at AAA-Iowa for 2 starts and 9 innings; striking out 11 and walking only 1. The self described “bulldog” in an interview with Scott Davidson of the Southbend Tribune stated that, “I’m not 6-4 and I don’t throw 97, but I go after every hitter. I don’t care who they are.” This exactly what the 5’9” 225 pound righty did across all four levels that year. As a part-time starter/reliever/Swiss Army Knife, Passantino struck out 104, while walking only 14; good for a 3.13 ERA and 1.101 WHIP.

And with that the 2020 Winter Meetings came to end for the Pirates. Looking back, beyond the Rule 5 Draft and the ever churning rumor mill, everything was status quo; which is what most of us, including myself, Gary and Chris expected. But that’s not to say it wasn’t productive as depth was added to the pitching ranks and hopefully some groundwork was laid for some potential trades in the future. Nevertheless, for now it is back to “hurry up and wait” as the 2020-21 MLB off-season moves right along.

Pirates Trade Rumors, Proposals and the Art of Buzz

Sure, calling the baseball offseason the silly season doesn’t work as well as it used to. There was a time when the flurry of activity and overreaction lined up perfectly with election time but it’s hard to relate the two after what we’ve witnessed in 2020.

There really wasn’t much involving the Pirates and then suddenly Jason Mackey sent this tweet.

If you read it carefully you can tell he was given little to no detail and he built in just about as many disclaimers as the character limit would allow.

Understandably it sent many into a frenzy of calculating deals, and proposing return. I must have been asked 20 times last night if there was any seriousness to this and all I’ll commit to is that Jason is good at not pushing forward crap, but even he said he wasn’t sure of the seriousness.

On the surface, this doesn’t make sense for either club in my eyes. One Josh Bell on many surplus sites has a ZERO value. Not a typo, zero as in none. I don’t buy that at face value but it’s not much higher than that if we’re honest. The Yankees being interested in Taillon makes sense but the Pirates would be selling both of these players at quite possibly their lowest value figure either have ever had.

Frustration over answers and the dream of putting one’s self on the map leads to tweets like this from a Yankees blogger.

I’ll give you my opinion in a moment but a friend of mine probably said it best.

He’s dead right. There would be no reason whatsoever to force anyone to take a player off your hands who you could easily let walk if he was such a problem. Also note the players mentioned don’t fit what a rebuilding club would be looking for.

Those three players are Yankees spare parts with the exception of Andujar and he isn’t enough to get a deal like this done.

Let me simplify this, forcing Josh Bell into a move with Taillon would only drive down the return for Jamo.

Did the Pirates and Yankees talk? Most likely, but if it were serious to the point of naming names you’d hear younger than those three.

Next up you have the super generic rumblings.

This is probably true, but it’s also a substitute for having no real rumors to run on. This just means they’re showing up when teams put out lists of players they want to discuss. Meaning we have no idea if the ask will line up, who is involved, what could be returned.

Half the fun of this time of year is guessing what that means and who could be interested. I get involved too.

That’s a loose proposal. I’m not naming names because the A’s, or if you follow the chain Padres, have a litany of players that could pull this together. What I’m looking for is not only do they have players who make the math work, but do they have enough players that there is room for massaging the deal into reality.

Do I have inside information that the A’s are calling, no, and neither does anyone else or they’d be screaming it on Twitter with their hair on fire, but the reality is they have the capital.

Finally, we get to the place where fans get frustrated only hearing about players getting shipped.

I get this, I really do. That unfortunately is not what the Pirates offseason is about this season. I know, I know, it never is with Nutting. Or Cherington is the same as Huntington.

I’m not here to argue, I’m simply saying moving assets for prospects is job number one. The types of free agents the Pirates will look for will be more of the depth type guys who will fill out the roster and patch holes created with these moves.

I simply can’t touch the reality of the 2021 roster until we see the moves. They might get some AAA players back who could make the jump. They could take a cast off as part of a deal to make the money work for the buyer. We just don’t know, we’ll have to be patient for this part of the conversation.

I love this time of year, and I love the conversations, just be aware that Twitter or Facebook aren’t exactly the Wall Street Journal (or insert whatever paper you respect).

Pirates Outfield Options In The Rule 5

Last week when General Manager Ben Cherington spoke with Jason Mackey of the PG, he talked about the desire to acquire at Fourth Outfielder ; a possibility our own Gary Morgan addressed just a few days ago. As Gary mentioned, it is clearly a need going into 2021; and how he manages this situation could very well give some indication as to the direction Cherington is leading his so-called build. Last year Guillermo Heredia and Jarrod Dyson were the low-cost choices from the Free Agent Market, and at least they got back some international bonus pool space. However, as I have before, this is not an option during the upcoming signing period. So, unless Cherington decides to go the route of signing a more impactful outfielder with higher potential trade value, it is feasible that he turns to the Rule 5 draft to fill that need.

If he were to do this, in order to provide depth while giving Anthony Alford and Jared Oliva some healthy competition in Spring Training, there are a few options that I would mind kicking the tires on to see if they can break the lineup next year. As it was with the pitching options I provided over the weekend, I doubt any of these guys are on the top of your lists; not because they aren’t worthy of the spot, but more of the effect caused by not being on a top 30 prospects list.

Chad Spanberger

Originally drafted by the Colorado Rockies in the 6th Round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft out of the University of Arkansas, Spanberger was acquired first by the Toronto Blue Jays a part of the Seungwhan Oh trade in 2019; only to be traded once again to the Milwaukee Brewers in the acquisition Chase Anderson. Primarily a First Baseman in his collegiate years, as well as the beginning of his professional career, he has now spent the majority of his time in the Outfield. In his most recent Minor League season, back in 2019, Spanberger saw some of his power return after the position adjustment; hitting 13 homers, with a .162 ISO. However, his OBP took a hit, dropping from .348 to .308, while his K% jumped 18.5% to 24.4%. Of the three candidates he is the least likely to be acquired, however, I couldn’t ignore the ties to Assistant GM Steve Sanders and Cherington, who saw the potential in this kid after he hit 22 bombs and slugged .579 in Low A, before they acquired him from Colorado.

Ben DeLuzio

DeLuzio is a former 3rd Round pick for the Miami Marlins from The First Academy in Orlando Florida. He went on to play at Florida State University before being signed as an UDFA by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2016. A career .297 hitter in the minors, he excelled following his promotion to AAA-Reno in August of 2019; slashing .357/.421/.563 with a 139 wRC+ over 39 games and 145 plate appearances. In his four years in Arizona’s Farm System. DeLuzio has played al over the outfield, showing range at each position.

Brennon Lund

Lund has spent his entire professional career in the Minors for the Los Angeles Angels after being drafted in the 11th Round of the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft from BYU. Currently he is blocked at the MLB level by the likes of Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Justin Upton and Taylor Ward; with Brandon Marsh climbing the MiLB ranks, Lund finds himself in a tough spot. Barely 26 years old, he most recently appeared in 2019 with AAA-Salt Lake, where he hit. 284 with a .805 SLG and a slightly below average 94 wRC+; although most of his numbers have remained consistent or eventually rebounded following a promotion. In his time with the Angels he has played all three outfield positions, with most of his time coming in centerfield.

As it currently stands the Pirates 40-man has two open spots, so it is extremely likely, if not all but guaranteed that Cherington is going to select a player tomorrow in the Rule 5 Draft. He has discussed the need for pitching depth and another outfielder, which I would see as the two mostly likely outcomes. However, he could always surprise us and throw another infielder into the mix of Newman, Gonzalez, Tucker, Frazier and Evans.

What if the Pirates Do Nothing?

I can’t see this happening, but the longer the offseason progresses with no moves of significance the more plausible it becomes. Today, let’s spend some time living in a world where the club kicks the can down the road, at least to the trade deadline and see if we can make sense of how it might play out.

Even when decisions aren’t made, cause and effect are still in play.

Believe it or not, there is a decent sized contingency of fans who think this path is the way to go, so let’s use this as a baseline for exactly what the Pirates have available to put on the field with no additions.

The easiest way to start is to project the 26-man roster. Right now, we’ll go with the assumption that the DH will not be employed in the 2021 National League. The latest from the league has informed clubs to prepare for that eventuality. It’s actually really unfair to teams and some free agents that the league has left this floating around this long but that’s for another piece.

Let’s go.

The Outfield

  1. Bryan Reynolds – Obvious, he’ll start in Left or Center and play most of the games if healthy.
  2. Gregory Polanco – Ton of money committed and when you see the other two, well, they couldn’t really cut him even if they didn’t care about paying him for not playing.
  3. Anthony Alford – When your own drafting has been less than stellar it leads to being more than happy to try someone else’s out. Alford will get a shot to show he belongs.
  4. Jared Oliva – I can’t see entering the season with untested entities as the fourth outfielder and I’m not ready to put Adam Frazier out there regularly. So Oliva comes North out of Spring on my team.

The Infield

5. Ke’Bryan Hayes – I’ve heard some people propose that the Pirates might manipulate service time with Ke to start the season but I don’t see it. They did that last year and typically once it’s been done, that stuff is over. Plus if they do that they might as well set up Home Alone style booby traps for fans in the concourse.
6. Josh Bell – Obviously the first baseman, well, if the goal is to have him create value anyway.
7. Colin Moran – Arguably better than Bell in the field, far more consistent too. I could make an argument for Moran to start over Bell but regardless they both make the team clearly.
8. Erik Gonzalez – No options and a fresh new MLB contract. It’s not a big one so if things turned out the Bucs could walk away from this pretty easily. I think he’s a bench guy, hope the team feels the same. Erik also has a wild card in his pocket, he can play third base and unless the Bucs want to revisit Moran over there, that’s essential.
9. Adam Frazier – Two time Gold Glove finalist at second base on a team that struggles to not kick the ball around the infield at times. He’s my starting second baseman and I’d be done with the outfield stuff. He can go get it but the arm doesn’t play.
10. Kevin Newman – 2019 might not have made sense to analytics junkies but it also can’t be ignored. His biggest issue might be that he’s the least talented defender of the three options to start at short.

Catchers

11. Jacob Stallings – No brainer, he’s the starter and just as no brainer you need two.
12. Michael Perez – He’s a back up catcher. He isn’t going to push Jake, but he can handle the job. Not much more to be said.

The Last Position Spot (if it stays at 26)

13. Cole Tucker/Phil Evans – This is in my mind the final decision the club will make. Cole has options so he could start in AAA, and if they plan to turn him into an outfielder that’s exactly what I’d advise. Evans had a really nice start in 2020 but let’s not forget he, like Alford is someone else’s pick that never panned out. I’m not saying he shouldn’t get a shot, but let’s not act like it’s a national tragedy if he doesn’t make the cut. If I had to pick right now, I’d take him over Tucker if only for options and I think Cole will benefit from playing games at whatever position they see him playing.

Pitching (I Expect the Rule to Revert to 13 Max)

14. Jameson Taillon – Fresh off his second TJ, he’ll walk right back in with expectation to hold down a spot in the rotation.
15. Joe Musgrove – Probably the best bet to be the Pirates number 1. That doesn’t mean he’ll be one, but that will be the role.
16. Mitch Keller – Probably the most talented starter who hasn’t had his arm sewn back together. Mitch started showing signs but nothing that makes him a lock to stick yet.
17. Steven Brault – This year Brault should have to lose his spot rather than fight to get a seat in the first place. Everything he does don’t individually impress but his collective output does.
18. Chad Kuhl – Probably showed enough last season to start, but he’s on the bubble. I could see him get pushed by JT Brubaker and that’s not a bad problem to have.
19. JT Brubaker – I think he showed enough to easily make the team as a swing man if not directly part of the rotation, could even be part of a rotation that helps slowly bring Jamo back to full strength.
20. Michael Feliz – New contract, and the team clearly likes what he’s done in the offseason. Potential 7th or 8th inning guy, outside shot at closing.
21. Richard Rodriguez – Probably the most consistent arm the Pirates have in the pen who has any kind of measurable track record. Could close again but he certainly isn’t prototypical.
22. Edgar Santana – It’s been a while, he was set to return from TJ last season and instead got pinged for performance enhancing drugs, ironically since he wasn’t allowed to perform anymore. He was an intriguing arm in 2018 and it’s impossible to say he still has what we saw until he shows it.
23. Chris Stratton – A legit find by Neal Huntington, Chris has more than convinced many he has the goods. His spin rate is elite and for stretches he is a steady presence in the pen.
24. Geoff Hartlieb – Probably got a shot in 2020 that he might have not received if not for all the injuries but he showed he belongs.
25. Sam Howard – The crafty lefty doesn’t have knockout stuff, but he also showed an ability to perplex batters from both sides of the plate. Another guy who took advantage of his shot.
26. Nik Turley – Another lefty who showed he could get outs no matter what role the team used him in. Hard to see him not making the club.

Near Misses

These are the guys who you might not expect to miss the cut but if this team doesn’t make any moves I think for different reasons they won’t be part of the club on opening day.

Kyle Crick – If Kyle has his fastball and shows an ability to control the slider, he’s essential. If he doesn’t there is no place to hide the former fireballing righty.
Blake Cederlind – I don’t think the Bucs could keep him down for long, but the way the roster sets up I think the Pirates will take advantage of his options. You can call this manipulation if you want but it might be a numbers game not related to money too.
Nick Mears – Nick has a bright future and if I’m honest he never should have made his debut last season. Don’t get me wrong he had to, but in no way was he ready. Don’t sleep on Mears, he will one day really be a nice piece.

Now, I don’t assume I’ve told you anything you didn’t already know here and I could of course be off on some of the bullpen arms. The Pirates did sign some players like Austin Davis, Sean Poppen, and Ashton Goudeau but before seeing them pitch I like the chances I’m right. I mean, the Pirates actually waived Goudeau and he was picked up by Baltimore with the team not even bothering to tell us.

When you really look at what’s here the holes are painfully obvious but if value isn’t where Cherington wants it in the offseason I wouldn’t be awfully shocked to see them head into 2021 looking a lot like this.

It’s not the end of the world if that’s the case, but there certainly isn’t enough in the system to say the work is done. It’s essential that someone start increasing their value, and as much as it hurts, those who aren’t part of the projected core need to be moved. The outfield situation alone should scare them straight.

Consistency Versus What If

When your team is in the position the Pirates are the first move is often the hardest to make. Just take a little trip through any Facebook group or Twitter conversation and you’ll see opinions ranging from ‘this team is only a couple players away if…’ to ‘this club needs to completely blow it up’.

I’ve been there, on both ends. The truth is the longer the Pirates hang out in limbo, the longer feelings will continue to vary like that. I’ve even written more than a few pieces talking about how the Pirates could add to this roster and improve the product without too much financial commitment and no real damage to the overall goal.

What is the overall goal? Well, we don’t really know. I’ve said, ok a ton of people have said, 2022 the teams starts looking fun, 2023 the team starts looking competitive. For me, it’s always been about when the pitching gets here but we and the Pirates would be fools to look at the prospect pool and believe they can just sit and wait.

Before we start getting into the very real reasons why they need more prospects, let’s start with where they are and what’s missing. More than anything, this club is missing players who don’t have the word ‘if’ attached to them. They aren’t alone, every team has to play that to a certain degree, if this guy can stay healthy, if this guy recovers from injury, if this guy can get this one aspect of his game just a little better, you know the type of thing I’m talking about. It’s the very inspiration behind Moneyball really, eliminating some of the ifs by using advanced stats to identify how players measurably can help a team.

Name one player on the Pirates who doesn’t have at least one if. I’d guess that most would say Ke’Bryan Hayes, but he’s 30 games into his MLB career and while I think he’ll be a great player, can you really take all the ifs off the table for him? If you think that’s a yes, how many of you thought Bryan Reynolds was in that category after 2019?

Every season of late we enter with a laundry list of ifs that should they pan out could make this club competitive and more often than not they fall the other way.

I hate comparing the Pirates to the Dodgers because on top of the obvious money side of the game they also do the little things better, so let’s stick in our own division. Let’s go with the Cubs. Every season they start with some very solid locks, they know Anthony Rizzo is going to play good defense, hit homeruns and fill a role in the middle of the lineup. He’s not a perfect player, but he is generally without question.

There are others but I’m using him as an example of someone we haven’t had in Pittsburgh since the Andrew McCutchen trade. You have to have it.

Some people call it the cornerstone, or the anchor and it makes team building easy or hard depending on whether you have one or not.

Bryan Reynolds could very well turn out to be that, after all we’re allowing a 60 game stretch to speak just as loudly as he previous strong season in 2019. Fair or not, those 60 games were that bad though, and again, fair or not, it raised a ton of ifs with him.

Josh Bell has a ton of ifs, mostly on the offensive side of life. He has power, that’s no if but making contact sure is. Defense isn’t an if, he just isn’t that good at it. Perfect example of the Pirates conundrum, Bell is the only guy capable of hitting 50 homeruns on the club, but you’d gladly trade him for a guy you could count on to hit 30. The upside is sexy, the downside is awful and reality dictates he’ll fall right in the middle of those two scenarios.

Maybe you don’t agree with that line of thought. Some people love to live on the edge of upside, and if that’s your bag, this is a great team for you. Go up and down this roster and for the most part the upside is compelling for a bunch of guys.

I have to believe this is how most people think because consistency isn’t rewarded with the same faith as potential here in Pittsburgh. Let’s head to the other end of the spectrum, Jacob Stallings. Jake is going to give you a .250 batting average or a tick higher, hit half a dozen homeruns or thereabouts and play great defense. Yet out of every position on this club more fans want him replaced than any other.

Look, not saying he’s a superstar, just saying you know what he is. He’s shown you and you can count on it. Yet more fans want to see Anthony Alford anointed with the starting CF job than those who want to bank on Stallings to hold down the job until the time they develop a better option.

More people are excited by players in Single A than a starting pitcher who finished last season on a no-hit streak who is still listed as one of the club’s top prospects.

I ran a poll on Twitter Saturday.

Now most people probably just took it as a generic poll and that’s exactly what I hoped, because I genuinely wanted to see where fans have their eyes set. I picked two players who have just started their MLB career and are commonly seen as part of the future core, and two players seen as part of the future core who haven’t really gotten to show us much of anything. Not shocked at all to see Hayes win the poll, but I found it very interesting that Keller finished last.

Interesting, not unexpected. Here in Pittsburgh pitching has been a problem for almost as long as the franchise itself has existed. We don’t have Bob Gibson’s, or Whitey Ford’s, instead we have pitchers who had relatively short spurts of greatness.

Kevin Newman had a wonderful 2019 and some people took that as where he can be as his norm. Most experts have consistently pointed out his numbers behind the stats don’t add up to him repeating the feat. Now that doesn’t mean he can’t, but when you’re building a team the downside is just as important as the upside. Numbers are numbers and they’re going to flex, but ranges tend to hold firm. Kevin could continue to use his speed to make the hard hit rate not matter, but he just as easily could be Trevor Williams, constantly chasing the dragon that had become his high in 2018.

We also don’t tend to reward actual improvement. Colin Moran has improved every season since he came here and while he’ll probably not hit as many homeruns as Josh Bell, he also won’t fall into gullies of zero production for weeks at a time.

Now, I guess this can be taken as a plea for the Bucs to accept mediocrity, that’s not what I’m shooting for, but I see how it could be taken that way. What I’m suggesting is no matter who the Pirates trade they aren’t moving a guy who is without concern that his downside has just as much shot of stepping to the forefront as his upside.

That’s going to lead to being mad that Joe Musgrove is a 16 game winner somewhere, or Josh Bell hits 45 homeruns for another team. Or it could just as easily mean Joe never figures it out.

60 games wasn’t enough to flush Bryan Reynolds, 30 isn’t enough to anoint Ke’Bryan Hayes, but we and management needs to recognize when they find those players who have eliminated the big ifs and make sure they have them to build around.

Maybe that player isn’t here. As I said, I look up and down the roster and can’t find anyone I can truly say I know what I’ll get outside Stallings, but it’s incredibly hard to build until you drive the first nail.

Cherington’s Possible Targets In The Rule 5 Draft

For me the Rule 5 Draft is such an unpredictable process, that rarely produces anything beyond a roster filler or depth piece for the upcoming year, so I almost avoided writing a prediction piece as to who the Pirates will pick entirely; after all, I already wrote a breakdown of how I thought it would ultimately go. However, I saw all the cool kids were doing it, which made me think I should put in my two cents as well.

Although, I am still cautioning fans from being too optimistic because as Dejan Kovacevic said on the DK Sports Radio daily Pirates podcast the other day, the last time Pittsburgh had a successful pick in the Rule 5 Draft was in 2007 when they selected Evan Meek and to please stop saying they should pick a catcher in the Major League Portion. The purpose of the Rule 5 Draft is not to build up your farm system, which is General Manager Ben Cherington’s stated goal. If anything they could sign someone like recently non-tendered catcher Curt Casali from the Cincinnati Reds and be much better off.

Once the actual function of the Rule 5 Draft is understood and expectations have been tempered, it is easy to see that the most likely outcome is an additional arm for the Pirates Pitching Staff; and one that can contribute immediately. When Jason Mackey spoke with Cherington the other day he talked about compiling pitching prospects in order to have depth at the position, so instead of relying on only the 13 arms on the 26-man roster, they can expand that number to around 18. An MLB ready pitcher is what you should expect and I believe it is exactly what they will pick. To me there are three options in this arena, who have some upside with not a lot of risk involved.

Zach Jackson

The 6’4” 230 pound right hander has progressed through the Toronto Blue Jays system since he was drafted in the 3rd Round (102 overall) in 2016 out of the University of Arkansas, spending his last season at AAA-Buffalo during the 2019 season. A full-time reliever since joining the Jays and for the majority of his college career, Jackson has earned a 3.07 ERA and accumulated 234 Ks in 199.2 innings of work in the minors. Control has been an issue at times, however, he cut his BB/9 almost three full batters between AA and AAA. With an average to above average fastball (50/55 grade) and a plus slider (55/60 grade), Jackson has the ability to provide deep in the bullpen for 2021.

Luke Barker

After becoming the all-time save leader for the Chico State (Division II) Wildcats, he was passed over in the draft. For many this would signal the end of their big league dreams, however, Barker saw this as opportunity; taking the time to further hone his craft with the Traverse City Beach Bums of the independent Frontier League. The Milwaukee Brewers would eventually come calling before the 2017 season and from then on things were looking up. Over the last three seasons across four levels Barker has seen his WHIP shrink from 1.364 at its highest in High A to .667 in the hitter friendly PCL, while his K/9 leveled off around 10 and he has never allowed more than .82 HR/9 back in 2017. Aggressively attacking batters with a mix of a four seamer, a splitter and a curve, he was surprisingly was not added to the Brewers 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft; especially since he was so close to the majors, had performed well at AAA and because they eventually traded reliever Corey Knebel to the Dodgers.

Phoenix Sanders

Sanders was drafted in the 10th Round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft from the University of South Florida by way of Daytona State College. Prior to being selected by the Rays he had also been named as the Top Player in the Northwood’s Collegiate League after his freshman year. Since joining Tampa’s system he has improved at almost every level; ending 2019 with a 1.92 ERA, 1.148 WHIP and 68 Ks in 61 innings between AA-Montgomery and AAA-Durham. Sanders has a repertoire of four pitches including a fastball, curve, slider and change; the later three being his strongest swing and miss pitches.

Now I know that none of these guys are flashy and most of you have probably never heard of any of them, but they are all more than capable of providing depth in the Pirates Bullpen; plus they all deserve a shot, so why not in Pittsburgh?