ETA for The Pittsburgh Pirates

If anyone has a little extra time on their hands, and is somewhat of a glutton for punishment, take a trip down the rabbit hole that is Pirates Twitter and Facebook to find out when fans, amateur bloggers and media experts alike believe this team will be competitive again. Opinions range from the 2023-24 group based on the prospects in the system and a young core to the 5 to 7 year club that doesn’t see anyone other than Ke’Bryan Hayes and maybe Bryan Reynolds or Mitch Keller as a part of the future. And then you have the “Spend Nutting Win Nutting” gang that doesn’t see a positive outlook for the Pirates until Bob Nutting sells the team or is removed from his duties for refusing to spend money on the product on the field. Honestly, all of these people with different points of view probably have the same chance of being right as they do of being wrong because in baseball there is nothing harder than that projecting; whether it be for prospects, current players or even a GM’s ability to produce with limited resources.

When Ben Cherington took the job as Pittsburgh Pirates General Manager during the 2019-2020 off-season he had one tradable asset in Starling Marte, which he turned into two high ceiling prospects in the forms of RHP Brennan Malone and Liover Peguero. He also had a young core of players; including Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman and Josh Bell that he reportedly planned to build around. All three had just come off very successful years in 2019, so the expectation was that this process would not take as long as originally expected. Reynolds and Newman were both in the conversation for NL Rookie of the year, as well as a batting title and Bell had made the All-Star Game as well as being invited to participate in the Home Run Derby. Flash forward to the present day after each of these players had the worst seasons of their professional careers. Is there still that same optimism? For some there obviously still is, as they believe the Pirates are only around three years away from competing.

As I stated before most of this optimism surrounding the 2023-24 window is not only built around this young core that showed signs of cracking, but also the ETA of some of the Pirates top prospects. If only it was this simple. I would advise anyone that is a part of this group to go back and look at the Pirates top prospect lists from a couple of years ago, focusing on the players that were expected to arrive in the majors in 2018 through 2020. You will find that all of them are already here, have moved on or never made it; sometimes due to performance, other times injures and in the worst case scenario, ill advised trades. However, it doesn’t change the fact that even with a number of these top prospects making it to the big leagues, the Pirates were a 19-41, last place team in 2020 and aren’t projected to do much better in 2021. You can argue that this next crop of youngsters will be better or do better, but in the end you don’t know.

After looking at this next wave or crop of prospects the only thing I have truly become aware of is the fact that there is a huge gap between the current batch of supposed MLB ready or impact players and the next. The blame for this issue lies solely on one man’s shoulders, Neil Huntington. His ability to identify, acquire and most importantly develop talent was clearly lacking, even if you only pay attention to this one aspect of the organization. Over the past week or so myself and Gary have written articles about the position battles that exist at First Base and the Middle Infield, options for Right Field and the Pirates looking for a 4th Outfielder, and some of you have probably seen the comments from Ben Cherington about there being an open competition at shortstop and compiling a revolving door of relievers . All of this articles and comments point to a lack of depth and options at the AAA level, as well as the reality that many of the prospects people are hanging their hat on have yet to play at a meaningful game above High A ball, with some not participating in anything other than activities at the Alternate Site in Altoona or the Instructional League. It’s extremely hard to predict success based on all these details, but it is not to say it won’t happen.

At this point in time the 5 to 7 year club is probably feeling pretty good about themselves, however this isn’t guaranteed either and honestly would be even harder to predict. Also I feel like most of the time these guesses are hedged by the words at least or could be before the 5 to 7; leaving room to still be kind of right. Nevertheless, these opinions are usually rooted in fact about the normal length of a rebuild, so they can’t totally be ignored. If this is truly becomes a tear it all down, no pieces of the future at the major league level type of situation, this estimated timeline could be closer to being a reality.

As for the “Spend Nutting, Win Nutting” gang I really have no words of advice other than the ones I have given many times before; maybe it is time to find a new team to get behind. Until a salary cap is implemented I don’t see any hope on the horizon for you. Unless the Pirates somehow become the Rays or the A’s, but even then I’m not sure any of you will be happy.

Now some of you may wonder what group, club or gang I belong to. The easy answer is none of them. I don’t want to put all of eggs into one basket or no basket at all by thinking that you can only draft one type of player because it’s what seems to fits into Cherington’s supposed timeline, they are 5 to 7 years away based on observations of a 60 game season or a new owner would do something completely different than Nutting. I find it much easier to enjoy the ride, write and talk about the Pirates and look forward to a season when hopefully 162 games will be played.

The Pirates Say They’d Like a 4th Outfielder

Yesterday Jason Mackey posted a conversation he had with Ben Cherington following the events of the non-tender deadline. If you read my piece yesterday, you probably can understand why I would be interested in what he had to say.

There were nuggets all throughout it and here’s a link if you’d like to read it all. I understand it’s behind a paywall so I’ll summarize some of the more interesting points that came up in the conversation for those who don’t have a subscription.

At short stop Cherington sees a position battle, and while you’ve seen many reference the fact Cole Tucker could very well start the season in AAA, the real nugget here was Ben openly reminding us that Kevin Newman also has options. Essentially he wants one of the group to grab the position and not let go.

Michael Feliz on his own is currently at Driveline Baseball Institute, one of the very best data driven instructional sites in the country. Working on his arm slot and delivery, this is an effort to stay healthy and gain consistency and his ‘want to’ really impressed the club, hence the signing.

Apparently they’d like to see if they can resign Clay Holmes but I’m not holding my breath, they seem to say this sort of thing alot, remember Archer?

My focus coming out of this piece was the outfielder bit.

Here’s the quote, “I think we’d like to add to that group between now and spring training.”

I sure hope so, because he was answering a question about the Pirates maybe needing a 4th outfielder, and I could make a pretty easy argument they need 2. You have Gregory Polanco, Bryan Reynolds, Anthony Alford and Jared Oliva as we sit here now. We think Alford is interesting, liked what we saw, sure has pedigree, but even so he can’t play every day.

The bench could very well have Phil Evans and Cole Tucker as the only people with outfield experience should they choose to start Oliva in AAA, and in that case Tucker would actually have the most experience coming off the bence.

Yeah, I’d say you need a 4th, but they could do well to find someone with a bit more of a chance to really contribute.

They could go in a ton of different directions to get one, first and easiest potentially being digging through the recently released players out there like Hunter Renfroe. I’m still a fan of kicking the tires on Joc Pederson but don’t worry, I remember what team I’m covering.

Some more realistic targets might be a reunion with Robbie Grossman, or maybe the power or nothing style of Adam Duvall is attractive. Albert Almora might be a good option because he can play center as well which would take the pressure for Alford to perform down a bit. Ben Gamel from Milwaukee is an interesting option as well.

The Pirates will have options is the point and even on the low end of the pay scale they could improve on what they have.

I’m encouraged to hear it as a need from management, but last year that ‘need’ was met with the signing of Jarrod Dyson, Heredia and Riddle. This year, they need to realize that this role is not one that will be filled internally, the Pirates are a Bryan Reynolds injury away from seeing how thin they really are. In fact the Indianapolis Indians depth chart right this second only has one outfielder listed, Kevin Kramer, who himself is Rule 5 eligible. Want to go deeper? OK, in AA they have Bligh Madris and Chris Sharpe.

Now I’m not ignorant to the fact they’ll sign some free agents (of the MiLB variety) and promote from within, but this isn’t a club with outfielders knocking down the door.

Like him or not, Polanco is most likely playing his last season in Pittsburgh and one way or another the outfield needs stocked. They could have two more drafts focusing on the outfield alone and not fill out the top levels of the organization quickly enough to hit the projected window.

Again, glad they see it as a need, let’s sign people that show you realize just how big an issue it is.

Pirates Non-Tender Day Was a Non-Event

I’m not sure what I was expecting. Maybe I was going to be irritated by any move they made or didn’t make. I started writing this piece last night after the news started breaking with the only move of note being Will Craig clearing waivers and being outrighted to AAA, along with Clay Holmes being non-tendered and selecting free agency.

I say I started writing because I also stopped. As I read it back to myself I realized it was coming across like I was calling for Cherington’s head on a platter. It’s far too early for that kind of take but when a team that finishes last has 39 of the 40 spots on the roster locked up already at this stage of the offseason, well, let’s just say it’s not encouraging.

Anyone ever tell you to never grocery shop hungry? Well, I try to never write angry. That’s the kind of stuff that pins you to takes you wish you had thought through later and I try very hard to be fair with my analysis of the club. None of that means what they’re doing here makes sense to me right now.

On top of those two moves referenced above the Pirates also decided to sign Eric Gonzalez for another season avoiding arbitration just like last year, this time for 1.2 million. Michael Feliz went the same route signing for 1 million.

Once the Gonzalez news broke I was immediately flooded with thoughts of what that could mean. Is Tucker done as an infielder? Should Adam Frazier be packing? Is Cruz further away than many think? Do they still see him as more than a bench option? Does Tucker potentially start 2021 in AAA?

For Feliz, can I look at the roster and put him in the top 7 options for the bullpen?

Let’s look at what the newly minted 40-man has to offer. Tyler Bashlor, Blake Cederlind, Kyle Crick, Austin Davis, Michael Feliz, Ashton Goudeau, Geoff Hartlieb, Sam Howard, Nick Mears, Sean Poppen, Richard Rodriguez, Edgar Santana, Chris Stratton, and Nik Turley.

Now, I’ve removed everyone who profiles as a starter, but you could certainly add Cody Ponce, JT Brubaker, maybe even Steven Brault or Chad Kuhl.

Of that list, I think it’s fair to say there are a few we want to see more of or at the very least feel belong. Blake Cederlind, Geoff Hartlieb, Sam Howard, Rich Rodriguez, Edgar Santana, Chris Stratton and probably Nik Turley.

Offering a tender to Kyle Crick confuses me. If he doesn’t show up in Spring training with near his former velocity I see zero value in him as a pitcher on this team. For what they’ll pay, it’s not a huge gamble but if his presence is something they count on rather than hope for, I question the thought process for keeping him. Without that velo he’s relatively impotent and having him anywhere near the back end of your bullpen would be malpractice.

Feliz has sparkled in between awful bouts of control issues. I have no issue with the 1 million signing but again, I don’t see where he fits above those other seven I mentioned.

Of course all seven of those players I mentioned could certainly be traded or injured and depth is important.

All this kinda brings me back to where I started, I’m not sure what I was expecting. I guess I was hoping they’d be ready to move on from some of the guys we’ve seen be more part of the problem than the solution in the last couple seasons like Crick or Feliz, but instead they kept both and moved on from Clay Holmes who started to show he was harnessing his frame and learning to control his stuff. Now, he was injured last season, and maybe we don’t know the whole picture, but I’ve seen more positive from him than either Crick or Feliz, let alone Bashlor, Davis, or the litany of waiver claims on their list.

Listen, none of this is the end of the world and I’ll be honest, when they DFA’d Trevor Williams, I think I let my imagination go wild a bit. I let that one move tell me something I wanted to believe rather than giving the facts a chance to tell me the truth.

Bottom line, this deadline, the next in the offseason progression, did little to clearly show us what this franchise is thinking. Next week the virtual Winter meetings take place and perhaps things will start to clarify when we see moves being made.

Or maybe I once again have false hope that change is coming this soon.

MiLB and Player Development are Undergoing Quite a Change

The Pittsburgh Pirates are losing two MiLB affiliates as of this post, the Morgantown, West Virginia Black Bears and the Bristol Pirates. Tell people you’re taking something they love away and sit back an wonder why they take it badly.

This entire thing has been PR malpractice if I’m being honest, because at the end of the day, this actually isn’t a bad plan. But the inference from talking about ‘cutting’ teams isn’t something that will easily slip off into the ether.

The Pirates lose two affiliates, yes, that’s true. Many clubs are losing affiliates. Small towns rely on these teams and they also provide the early on training that newly minted professional ballplayers need.

Most of the teams who were chopped have been offered inclusion in various new instructional leagues. I’ve written about it previously when I went in depth on what is happening to the Appy league and recently news broke that the same type of thing would be set up with the artists formerly known as the Pioneer league.

Great news for towns like Missoula (I’m still gonna get there one day).

So why are these leagues kinda a cool idea? Well for one thing they’ve been around for quite some time. The Arizona Fall League, the Cape Cod League, now one is geared toward collegiate players and operates as a de facto introduction to wooden bat ball. That’s why scouts get so much more excited about a guy who hit 7 homeruns in the Cape vs 20 in a collegiate season.

All of the new leagues will be wooden bat leagues and so far two will remain dedicated to collegiate athletes. The idea here is as this spreads it will become a catchall for new draft picks or even coming of age international players.

They seem to be doing this as a stepped approach so there will still be lower levels affiliated with clubs but not two or three short season squads. This will obviously create an overflow of players and I think they’ll find a home on some of these unaffiliated squads.

This is feeling a whole lot like the setup in the NHL. I don’t know to what degree any of you follow hockey so bear with me if you hate the sport, the analogy is too close to ignore.

When a player in the NHL is drafted they tend to not be ready for the NHL, in fact they might not be ready for pro sports quite yet. Enter the Ontario Major Junior Hockey League, a world class juniors outfit meant to train hockey players to become professionals. The NHL also allows players to be drafted internationally and continue to play in their home country until they are ready to move into the actual system.

In other words, you draft an 18 year old kid and while he is the property of your team he heads off to play in the OMJHL or the Finnish Junior Hockey League, developing polish and basically letting someone else do the basic training.

You lose being able to put your stamp on them from the jump but when you get them they can play. They understand the rules, general hockey terms, who’s responsibility is who’s on a back end rush. Then you start to introduce the concepts of your organization when they reach your system.

In hockey if you’re high enough in the draft pool you might end up directly in the AAA affiliate or even on the NHL club (Hi Sid!), but there are places for the lower level instruction needed for raw talent.

For baseball, they could have much of the same setup. First round picks would either start in AA or worst play one short season in your affiliation ranks. 2nd rounders you might start in an unaffiliated league. College players might start in your system because of age.

In other words, there is a real world example of this type of system working just fine and MLB chose to puff their chests out and act hard rather than share a vision that is being brought to the surface slowly.

I’ll miss having an affiliated team that close but at least we still have Altoona, and I truly think if they execute this right it might actually work better than what we’ve had.

The Pirates Middle Infield Is Up In The Air

All conversations about the future at shortstop and second base for the Pittsburgh Pirates almost always end up with the word logjam. On the way to this conclusion there are discussions about trading Adam Frazier, Cole Tucker being given a fair shake at shortstop and Kevin Newman sliding over to second base; along with expectations of Liover Pegeuro and Nick Gonzales reaching their full potentials and eventually leading the Pirates back to the playoffs. However, these possibilities are all routed in hope and speculation, where nothing is promised and circumstances can change in the blink of an eye. So, for now it only makes sense to focus on the players that are currently on the roster because even the assumptions or opinions that we may have are not always going to turn out the way we expect them to.

Adam Frazier has been a finalist for a Gold Glove at Second Base the past two seasons and a potential trade candidate for almost as long, Kevin Newman took over at Shortstop in 2019 thanks to a outstanding rookie campaign, but regressed at the plate in the shortened season, Cole Tucker played his way back to the minors as Newman emerged and found himself in the outfield last year and Erik Gonzalez just always seems to find his way into the lineup with sporadic success at the plate and consistent defense. Four players, with only two positions available.

Of course it is possible that Frazier will be traded or moved to the outfield, as he was at the end of last season. And perhaps Gonzalez gets non-tendered at the deadline, which would immediately relieve some of the pressure in find a role for everyone. Each of these things could happen, but neither of them are a guarantee. What happens if all four guys are still on the roster come Spring Training? Who deserves to be in the starting lineup and what position should they play?

For the past two seasons Erik Gonzalez has become the shortstop of choice for two different coaching staffs. In 2019 he was named the opening day starter, who’s collision with Starling Marte derailed his year, and in 2020 he eventually won the regular role after splitting time at third and short to start the year. After working his way back at toward the end of the year, he performed fairly well by hitting .275 over the final 37 games. Then at the beginning of this one, during a seven game stretch, Gonzalez saw his average shoot up from .125 to .349 and his OPS reach as high as .907. However, as we all are aware, this streak did not continue and over the last 30 games and 111 at bats Gonzalez slashed .225/.270/.351.

On the defensive side of things Gonzalez has proven to be a asset as he earned 3 OAA this past season, to go along with 2 DRS. However, in his two seasons with the Pirates he has accumulated a 0.0 WAR, which would make him the very definition of a replacement level player in spite of being an above average with the glove.

Following Gonzalez’s injury it was the young and enthusiastic Cole Tucker that was the first man up, mostly due to Kevin Newman being on the IL with a lacerated finger. Tucker started his career off with a bang by hitting a game winning homer in his first ever game. After his hot start the shine began to wear off as his average fell to .196, ultimately resulting in him being optioned back to AAA-Indianapolis after 38 games. He would be called back up again in September, but his struggles continued as he ended the year with a .211 AVG, 2 homers and a 61 wRC+. This past season it was much of the same as he batted .220 with 1 homer and a 43 wRC+.

As it was with Gonzalez, Tucker’s defense was his strong suit as he posted a 2 DRS, but a surprising -2 OAA. In the end he was also a 0.0 WAR replacement level player. This past year’s metrics can pretty much be thrown out the window as he was learning a new position on the fly. So the -.5 WAR only shows that he was a below average Major League outfielder, which could be expected.

When Tucker was sent down in 2019, Newman ultimately replaced him and took advantage of the situation by batting .308 with 12 homers and a 110 wRC+. He was a 2.4 WAR player on the season inspire of a -7 DRS and -9 OAA at shortstop. He performed better in limited time at second by posting a 2 DRS and 0 OAA.

During the off-season amateur and professional sabermetricians alike began to question how Newman had maintained his high level of production at the plate for the entire year and honestly they were kind of stumped. Almost all of the data showed that it shouldn’t have been possible or at the very least would be difficult to replicate. In other words Newman would more than likely be heading for a regression as he ranked near bottom in exit velocity, hard hit %, xSlG and barrel %, as well below average in xwOBA according to Statcast.

In the shortened season, when healthy, Newman did struggle as he only managed to hit .224 on the season with 1 home run and a 54 wRC+. He also scuffled in the field again, this time at second base as well, earning a -1 DRS and – 3 OAA. Due to not being able to balance out his poor defense with a strong offense made Newman a -.4 WAR player on the season.

This takes us to the player that many believe will be traded in the off-season, Adam Frazier. I am not saying that he shouldn’t be or won’t be trade, but I have been hearing these rumors for over a year now and I will wait until it actually happens before planning a season without him.

As as far as Frazier is concerned, in the equivalent of 4 MLB seasons with the Pirates, he has shown himself to be around a league average hitter (.275 AVG and 100 wRC+), with defensive upside (6 DRS IF/OF, 6 OAA SB 2020 and 11 OAA 2B 2019). This past season he slashed .230/.279/.661; adding 7 homers in the process. If extrapolated over a 162 game schedule this equates to around 19 home runs, which would be a career high.

So what does this all mean as far as the middle infield is concerned for the upcoming 2021 season? Well, if by some chance Frazier is not traded in the off-season, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be the starting second baseman on opening day. I know this is an extremely unpopular opinion, but if the Pirates want to show players that a position must be earned, it makes no sense to hand it over to an underperforming Kevin Newman out of the gate. Of course if Frazier isn’t there, and probably if he is, I see Manager Derek Shelton going back to Newman to see if he can at least put up average defensive numbers and bounce back offensively from a disappointing 2020 season.

As far as shortstop is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. I still feel that if Tucker is going to be on the field consistently it should be at his natural position, so I would honestly like to see him get this shot. However, if it comes down to a competition between Gonzalez and Tucker it would be hard to imagine Tucker being able to overtake the incumbent at the position unless he had an extremely impressive Spring Training and even then it might be a questionable outcome. So, if Gonzalez is still here, it is probably his position to lose.

Unfortunately after weighing all of the options I am left feeling a little disappointed because I don’t really have anymore clarity on the situation from when I started other than the fact that the one guy, Adam Frazier, who has earned a spot at a middle infield position is a player who is likely not to be here next year. This leaves three players, and possibly two after tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, that haven’t truly earned a spot, starting in the infield for the Pirates in 2021. Which leads me to wonder if there really is as much of a logjam at the middle infield as we have been lead to believe.

The Prospect Mix – Developing the Future

Sometimes we watch players join the system and worry about who will start where, or who’s blocking whom. That’s certainly one way to look at developing a system in baseball, one that has been effective through the years too.

Those are things you have to address at some point and as baseball has evolved it’s been eroded a bit by the increased focus on position flexibility. The ethos that athletes being able to play multiple positions makes the club’s job of pulling skill sets together easier.

Skill sets are loosely defined by the five tools. Speed, Power, Hitting (average), Fielding, and Arm Strength. I think it’s fair when talking about what an organization needs to stockpile those five tools as they should of course be represented. Toss in Pitching and Catching and I think every organization needs to build a well rounded system with these 7 skill sets.

If you get too enamored with any one or two of these you’re also dooming your club to have to find the missing ingredients in free agency or by trading some of what you’ve stockpiled.

Here in Pittsburgh, we’ve seen this happen a couple times recently. Dave Littlefield for instance wanted to focus almost exclusively on pitching. His thought was that the one thing the club could not afford above all was top shelf pitching and by focusing on amassing as much of it as he could muster, he hoped to use it both on the field and as capital to buy the areas he had neglected.

OK, I can get behind that I guess, problem was, he stunk out loud at identifying pitching on top of manning the ship before MLB created the tier system for drafting talent that helped curb the rampant ‘sign able’ picks.

What it created was a series of never ending swing and misses on the mound rendering the club worse off than had they been more diverse in their drafting.

Neal Huntington took over and looked for a while like he would do the same thing and perhaps he would have if the league didn’t make that crucial change. Even so he eventually did land on a type if you will. His focus was on Speed.

This system even right now has a ton of speed and the really odd thing about it is baseball has never used less of it. The stolen base has all but been Moneyballed out of the game at this point and speed only get’s you so far in the outfield.

Take a look at the overall picture for the Pirates right now. Really try to put say the top 30 into those 7 buckets I created up there and see where the team leans.

Pitching, Speed and a sprinkling of power, a bit of fielding. Nothing wrong with that mix, just not enough of the areas that mean the most in today’s game. Power is emerging in the form of Mason Martin and Cal Mitchell has potential in High A. Nick Gonzales looks to have a few tools, power being one, but that’s the list and it’s all still at least a season away. Oneil Cruz has power, but until he discovers how to harness it more regularly the impact won’t be felt.

Pitching is coming along nicely with a solid mix of possibilities spread over three draft/international signing classes. Catching is no secret, beyond the three guys in rookie ball there are little more than also rans.

So when you look into the future, you can already see where the Pirates will most likely have strength and where they’ll still need to focus. If we jumped in a time machine to 2026 and the team was largely constructed from what we have in the system right now, they’d pitch pretty well and have to rely on one or two power hitters to drive in the speedsters who are hopefully hitting for average.

While we are sitting here at ground level wondering whether Tucker or Newman will start at short stop and how Cruz factors in, the boiling under the surface direction is being decided.

It’s hard to judge what Cherington is based on what we’ve seen so far, he walked into a situation where selective shopping wasn’t paramount. When you need everything in the store it hardly matters what aisle you start in. He needs all the areas we spoke to, and they all need more fleshed out, so best player available is a great way to go when you’re just digging in.

We don’t like to remember Huntington fondly and for his overall body of work, rightly so, but he did pull most of the right levers to fill the holes he left in the system when the team got close. He went and got the catcher, twice. He went and got the pitching, AJ, Nova, Volquez, Happ. It’s fair to say, feeling you have ‘built’ a winner while actively needing to go out and get two of the most important spots on the field isn’t the norm, but it worked.

His biggest problem was believing because it worked, he could do it again, completely forgetting the part where he sold off almost everything Littlefield handed him and started over.

Cherington is already showing signs of understanding that necessary step, he just hasn’t necessarily found his Cutch yet. Much like making a cupcake, forget the baking soda and you have a gross cookie instead. The approach already seems well rounded and that is something we all can root for, even if we don’t yet see the vision for where all these guys will play when and if they get here.

Put Him in Right Field!

It’s quickly becoming baseball’s equivalent to hating the goalie, blaming the Offensive Coordinator or wondering why a strong safety doesn’t make more interceptions.

The flavor du jour as of late has been O’neil Cruz, the lanky short stop looks out of place in the middle infield, well, until you watch him deftly handle everything like the slick fielder he has worked to become. The idea isn’t insane mind you, Cruz could handle it just fine as he’s certainly athletic enough and it’s hard to argue that Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales won’t soon be pushing from behind to find a new position for the young man. Add in Kevin Newman, Erik Gonzalez, Adam Frazier and Cole Tucker, the logjam is real.

In short, it makes sense to see where this young guy could play, but don’t take his ability to play short lightly, kid can play there. Third base would be another obvious place to move the young man, but his brother in arms for the next core of the club Ke’Bryan Hayes will have that position on lock down lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

Right now, Gregory Polanco is out there, and he’ll get a look. He is paid to much to not try, but Ben Cherington is on record saying they aren’t afraid to have a high priced player on the bench. Outside of the bubble of a 60 game season, we’ll see how true to their word the coaching staff and management team are when it comes to things like that.

The Bucs will most likely have more options beyond that for the honor of playing in front of the 21 foot Clemente Wall. Phil Evans, Jared Oliva, Cole Tucker, hell Adam Frazier might even make an appearance.

You know who’s name I’ve heard most as of late though? Josh Bell.

Right! That Josh Bell, the guy who usually plays First Base. This is driven largely because Colin Moran showed last season he was at least as scary as Josh at the plate and can actually pick it a bit over there. Another big factor is people remembering Josh grew up playing the outfield. It’s his natural position they shout as if you were arguing.

Here’s the trouble though, Josh wasn’t moved from the outfield because the Pirates needed a first baseman as much as the fact he wasn’t a very good outfielder. He was adding bulk from the time he was drafted and at some point that started to add up to an inferior fielder out there. So he and the Pirates decided to try first base in the Arizona Fall league.

Arguably his best professional season, and I should be clear, I’m not counting rookie ball or short season Arizona Fall League stuff, was 2015. In that season he split time between Altoona and Indianapolis, played predominantly right field and wound up with 16 errors and a .986 fielding percentage.

Since he made his MLB debut for the Pirates, Josh has played 476 games in the field and the perception has always been that he is a horrific fielder but what really made him a train wreck out there was his throwing. He’s made 36 total errors at first base for the Bucs, 20 in the field and 16 throwing. Too many to be sure, but hardly evidence that narrative is accurate. In fact one of those seasons saw him put together a .995 fielding percentage at first.

Numbers aren’t everything. I watch the games too, he isn’t great. Part of Josh’s problem in the field and at the plate for that matter is he doesn’t look comfortable. He makes most of his pick opportunities but you sure hold your breath. He’ll make most of the expected plays, but if the short stop isn’t Robin Hood with the baseball he isn’t going to bail them out most likely.

I say all this to get to the reality that Josh Bell while not ever to be confused with Anthony Rizzo at first, would make Gregory Polanco look like Willie Mays by comparison in right.

It solves a problem, but creates another. If the Pirates don’t trade some of these guys, they better have some inside information about the DH being back for 2020, because they have too many people at too few spots.

If you were just looking to make baseball trades that would be ideal would it not?

The Pittsburgh Pirates First Baseman Of The Present

On the day before Thanksgiving the Pirates made a somewhat surprising decision of designating former 1st Round Pick Will Craig for assignment to make room for Colorado Rookies pitcher Ashton Goudeau. Following these corresponding moves Pittsburgh was left with only two players in contention for the starting First Baseman to begin the 2021 season, which is exactly the same number as it was prior to Craig being removed from the 40-Man. In essence this transaction lets us know more about General Manager Ben Cherington’s view of Will Craig’s ability to contribute to the future of the Pirates than it does about anything else.

Over the past two minor league seasons Craig had accumulated 43 home runs and 99 total extra base hits, while being awarded with a Minor League Gold Glove at First Base. However, he saw his average dip to below .250 in consecutive years, his strike out rate rise from 13.5% in 2016 to 26.3% in 2019 and his walk rate nearly cut in half; landing at 7.5%. Once a regular in the Top 10 of Pirates Prospects, Craig found himself falling down and off some lists due to the regression he experienced as he moved his way up through the Pirates Farm System; and as our own Gary Morgan pointed out a little over a week ago, there are at least a couple of players who could easily supplant him as the potential First Baseman of the future. However, this still doesn’t settle the debate for the Pittsburgh Pirates First Baseman of the Present.

With Major League Baseball currently operating under the assumption that the National League will be without the Designated Hitter in 2021, both Colin Moran and Josh Bell have fairly valid arguments as to who should be fielding opposite the hot corner for the Pirates. Although none of the reasons have much to do with actually fielding ability. Sure, Moran is slightly better in defensive metrics at the position, but it’s not like a 0 DRS and 0 OAA is going to blow anyone away. Also, if he committed errors at the same pace as he did in his limited work there, it would work out to be only slightly less than his horrific performance at Third Base the previous year; 11 to 14.

Offensively, Bell and Moran have each shown that they are more than capable of justifying a spot in the starting lineup; at least during certain stretches of their respective careers. Prior to the 2020 season Colin Moran was a consistently near league average batter, with a .277 AVG in both 2018 and 2019 to go along with a wRC+ of 102 and 94. He also displayed decent power with double digit homers in both seasons. However, in 2020 Moran began the year by slashing .333/.385/.875 with 4 home runs in his first 24 at bats, before reality sank in as he proceeded to hit .228 over his next 127. Luckily for him some of the power stuck around as he hit another 6 homers and 20 total extra base hits, but saw his once astronomical numbers slip to .247/.325/.472 by the end of the season. Nevertheless, he finished with a career high 114 wRC+.

On the other hand Josh Bell had a disastrous 2020, only managing to slash .226/.305/.364 with 8 home runs. He also saw his K% balloon to 26.5%. As of right now now his near historic first half of 2019 feels like a lifetime ago. After batting .302 with 27 homers and 30 doubles prior to the All-Star Break, Bell managed only 10 additional homers and a .233 average over the last 3 months of the season. Frankly, at this point I don’t even need the superstar version of Josh Bell back and would settle for either his 2018 (.255 AVG, 26 HR and 108 wRC+) or 2017 (.266 AVG, 12 HR and 111wRC+) form.

So, what will be the deciding factor(s) as to who will find themselves at First Base on Opening Day at Wrigley Field this upcoming season? Well, first off both are arbitration eligible with Moran estimated to make between $1.9 and $3.3 million, while Bell will be due somewhere in the range of $5.1 to $7.2 million. It is possible, but not very probable, that Cherington could choose not to tender a contract offer to one or more surprisingly, neither of them.

Assuming that he does, the next factor to consider is the trade rumors that have continued to swirl around the two 1st Base candidates. Most of this speculation is caused by the very question we are attempting to answer in this article; one position, two players. One could say Moran improved his trade value with his hot start to the season and the ability to play multiple positions, while Bell sabotaged his by pigeon-holing himself as designated hitter who’s lackluster, and often uncomfortable, performances at the plate over the past year and a half. Obviously both players still have trade value that must be weighed by Cherington before he would actually pull the trigger. So, while I am not ruling out the possibility, I would need to see the potential return for each player, as well as a list of the interested teams, before ultimately make a decision as to whether or not it was a realistic option for the Pirates. For now these rumors will remain pure speculation, not that any of us have a say in the matter.

The final factor is the role(s) that each of them could play on the team if it was not the decided they would be the starting First Baseman for at least 2021, as well as any other teammates that could fill a similar role. Simply put, for Bell, there is no other role. Without the Designated Hitter as an option, Bell is a First Baseman or nothing. I have seen it suggested that Bell move back to his original, right field, position; a spot that he hasn’t patrolled since 2016 and that he honestly doesn’t have the range to play anymore. Plus, if the power returns and the average stabilizes, we aren’t really having this conversation.

As far as Moran is concerned he has shown that he can play a league average First Base and Third Base in a bind, along with some experience at Second and in the Outfield. This gives the Pirates some choices as to where Moran can be deployed in a regular or utility/bench role. Currently there are a few players with similar versatility as Moran on the roster in the forms of Phillip Evans and Erik Gonzalez. Yes, Erik Gonzalez has experience at First Base at the Major League level. Evan’s has a short, yet impressive, resume for the Pirates, as well as more years of control. Gonzalez is more defensively sound than Moran and has shown some offensive potential, but overall Moran has displayed more overall value as it pertains to WAR (1.1 to .4); although not overwhelmingly. In addition to this they are projected to receive similar contracts in arbitration; which make me start to think we should be debating Gonzalez versus Moran. However, I think we can save that discussion for another time….maybe.

Truthfully, if Josh Bell is on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster come April 1, 2021, he will be standing at First Base. Supposing he is not, Colin Moran more than likely slides into his spot because my gut reaction tells me he gets the nod over a Gonzalez or Evans. Now, assuming they are trying to make room on the roster for all four players and assigning appropriate roles, I see Bell as the obvious, Moran as the next safest bet, Evans a close third and Gonzalez being the most expendable; which I guess settles that debate. My reasoning for Evans, and technically Moran, over Gonzalez is potential. Moran showed an increase in power, a career high .225 ISO, that is tough to ignore, whereas I think Cherington wants to give Evans a longer look due to his track record of being an above average hitter throughout the Minors and the extra years of control.

Unfortunately, all of this is just conjecture as it currently stands. We are still waiting for the Arbitration Deadline on December 2nd, with a long off-season and the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season still ahead. At the moment we all have to sit, wait and wonder about the next steps the Pirates and Cherington will take in, hopefully, building a contender at PNC Park.

Five Pirates Black Friday Thoughts At Five

As we have all made our way through the most recent abnormal holiday of 2020, Thanksgiving, and are preparing for the next one in line, Christmas, we sit down at our computers for the new version of Black Friday; which seems a lot like Cyber Monday. This isn’t much different for me since I can’t even tell you the last time I bought any present at an actual store, but I understand that this is like a sporting event for some of you. As I take a breaks from my shopping I do something, which is almost second nature for me; studying the Pirates current roster, mulling over recent transactions, reading articles, scouring free agent lists and mentally weighing the positives, negatives of tendering contracts of each arbitration eligible players and of course flipping through Pirates Twitter. During my research/brainstorming here are some of the thoughts that kept

1) Why does General Manager Ben Cherington continue to stockpile pitchers who have been otherwise cast aside by other Major League teams? Simple, you can never have too many pitching options. As a team the lost seven contributing pitchers from the 2020 season; Tropeano, Waddell, Neverauskas, Holland, Kela, Burdi and Williams. Also Archers option was declined, so that brings the total to eight. Those spots need to be filled and not all of this can be done internally. Plus any of these moves could turn into a reliable bullpen arm like Sam Howard, or they could turn out to be a guy who doesn’t even make the 26 and/or 40 man roster to begin the year. Honestly, no one knows.

2) Do the Pirates need more catching depth in their farm system? Need is a very strong word. Could they benefit from this? Yes. Has it gone from a need to a want for me? Also, yes. Now I know that we don’t have a catcher in our top prospects list on any site, so it would be nice to see one there. Nevertheless, what would this actually mean? Does every top 30, 40 or 50 prospect turn into something? No. Was Stalling a top prospect? Also, no. Are most people happy or content with him being our back stop for at least the next couple of years? Yes. I also start to think about how the previous Pirates regimes filled the position when they became competitive, as well as the at least 3 catchers we have in the lower levels that could still turn into something.

3) This whole situation between MLB and MiLB hurts my head and heart. Anyone who has read my articles or listened to the podcast knows that I am a prospect junkie and huge supporter of all things Minor League Baseball. Chances are my beloved West Virginia Black Bears will no longer be associated with Pirates. Rather they will be offered a place in a new college wood bat league, so at least I will more than likely still get to visit one of my favorite towns in MiLB. Also hearing that Fresno will have to accept reclassification from AAA to low A or lose MLB affiliation, makes me shake my head. I guess at least they still have an option, which may not be true for other places such as; Round Rock, Rochester, San Antonio and many others. I have seen that we may be made aware of MLB’s final plan for MiLB as early as next week. Until then it is a waiting game; one that many have no control over.

4) Arbitration is clearly still the most pressing issue at the moment. The Pirates have until December 2nd to make decisions concerning 13 current players. With the Williams and Osuna DFA’s, along with other previous moves, the list has shrunk slowly from around 20 players to its current number, so Cherington has already been busy. He will continue to be for the next five days and beyond. For what it’s worth my list of players I think the Pirates need to keep, in my estimation, has dropped from around 10 to a solid snowman; 8 for the non-golfers in the audience.

5) Why can’t the Pirates Front Office just call it a rebuild? Truthfully, what difference would it make? Would it actually appease fans? Does it guarantee they will actually be competitive in 3 to 5 years? In my mind they can call it whatever they want because if you know me at all, you know I believe the most rebuild already started between the 2017 and 2018 seasons. It was just preemptively delayed or crushed for that matter by the Chris Archer Trade. Now Cherington and company are left to pick up, trade off and build using some of remaining pieces. Sure they could use different language, which has been suggested by many. However, once again, what difference would it make?

These are just some of the things that have been swirling around inside my head, down here in the basement, on this lazy Black (Cyber) Friday.

What are all you other Pittsburgh Pirates Fans thinking about today?

Happy Thanksgiving from Inside the Bucs Basement

I recently shared on social media that I’ve been writing about the Pirates for a year now. You have all been so gracious and insightful with comments, it just makes the work easy to want to do.

I started at a weird time, baseball was just wrapping up in 2019 and my first article was about the team possibly trading Adam Frazier. Yeah I know, not much has changed in a year huh?

Weeks later Bob Nutting fired his front office and we moved into covering the hunt for a new GM, then coach, then the Marte trade, and just when we were finally ready to uncork coverage of a new baseball season COVID hit.

I have to say, my struggling for ideas to write about wasn’t anywhere near the realm of good taste to broach. Craig and I would have hour long phone calls trying to bang our virtual heads together trying to come up with ideas. Trying to stay fresh, and struggling to not give in to the impulses to write 6 history pieces a week.

Some of you quit reading, and a big part of me didn’t blame you. Some of you stuck with it through the entire ordeal and right into baseball being back for a short stay.

I’m thankful for everyone who read along with us, and those who came back when the game did. I’m thankful for the players, coaches, former players, fellow writers and broadcasters who gave us their precious time and answered out questions with the perspective only they could provide.

I’m thankful for my partner Craig Toth who runs in my probably completely biased view the best podcast for Buccos baseball in the biz Bucs in the Basement and one of the top prospect hounds in the game.

I’m thankful to the journalists who had to completely change the way they do their jobs to get us as much information as they could rustle up, even while they lost the ability to read the room or ask follow up questions. Our ecosystem doesn’t work if they don’t.

I’m grateful to the players for taking whatever risk there was in competing for us. In a weird situation to say the least they gave us their all. I’m thankful to the families of the players who put their normal lives on hold to allow their husbands, boyfriends, dads and sons to do what they were born to do.

Mostly, I’m grateful to do what I do and have an outlet so I don’t bother my wife with all my Bucco thoughts.

Happy Thanksgiving my friends, I can’t wait for year two. Thanks for taking the ride with us.

-Gary