Prediction Models are Either Broken, Or People are Way Better at Lying

Charlie Morton just signed a 15 Million dollar contract with the Atlanta Braves.

That’s right, 15 Million. That figure isn’t shocking per se, I mean this is a really good pitcher who has been part of a World Series rotation more than most recently. I certainly don’t begrudge Charlie making what he can, but the models and expert predictions that we’re using clearly didn’t get this one right.

Everybody predicted a down market and I don’t just mean Morosi, or Gammons, there were actual GM’s on record that they just couldn’t see players getting normal market value.

Instead we’re seeing deals like this on for Morton. Like the Jays paid Robbie Ray. It’s completely counterintuitive to the very real situation that has seen players part ways (at great cost in some cases) with players like Brad Hand or Charlie himself.

Before I go here, this is in no way a political statement, but polls and predictive models are clearly off in more industries than baseball.

So what’s going on here?

Lying seems to fit the bill. Every single team has cried poor, even putting a 30% figure to the gate revenue in relation to the overall income. I get it, I think we all expected the clubs were all getting pinched a bit, but with closed books who knows what to believe.

I can certainly say, the early signings don’t paint that picture. They certainly don’t paint a picture that next season is precarious in any way, which it almost has to be right?

The Pirates via Travis Williams to Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports “Williams did not go into specifics when asked if the Pirates lost money this year, like many of teams have, but said the impact was “significant.” The Pirates have said it is too early in the offseason to know if that impact will necessitate cutting the major-league payroll.”

OK, so that’s not lying, but it’s more than likely a bit misleading. It’s too early in the offseason to know, but not because they’re pouring over the books trying to pinch nickels to get Ben that extra million. It’s because they don’t yet know who else Ben might move. Sets the stage perfectly to claim the eventual projected payroll being low is COVID related rather than rebuild related.

A friend of mine (well virtual friend) @JimStamm22 was pretty irritated at the same old double talk from various interviews Mr. Williams conducted recently. I see his point, mostly because when you challenge him he will have a reasonable conversation with you rather than call you a hater. Great follow he is by the way, but I digress.

We had a great talk about it and while I still think much of what irritated him was just GM speak, like we want to win a championship or we have a great management team, blah blah you know what I’m talking about. I point this very real criticism from Jim out because that’s a whole different category than overt misleading.

We all assume the payroll is going to go down. They cut roughly 17 million from it already, add back in the arbitration awards and a pittance of free agents they might break even, but I see it creeping down a bit.

I don’t mind them not knowing right now, makes total sense. But we’re mature enough to hear that if we make more trades the payroll isn’t just going to slide downhill, it’s going to drop. I believe we can handle that. If the statements like this are designed to help the Bucs smooth things over with the Nutting must go crew, it won’t work.

First of all, we all would like Nutting to go, the difference is some of us understand he isn’t going to sell and it’s not going to stop us from watching and covering the team. In reality it doesn’t stop many of the Mark Cuban crusaders from watching either, but they sure are vocal that they pay no attention. There they are commenting on every column, every signing, every trade, every hire, every damn day.

I suggest placating, is no better than lying. Just treat us like adults. I don’t care if they use the r-r-r-rebuild word or just call it acquiring talent, but please, we can see what’s happening, and we know why. I don’t expect Travis to point at Bob and say, ‘hey guys, you know he won’t spend right now’. But they could try explaining why a team in this position can’t spend their way out of it.

I don’t need to know that the eventual promised payroll figure is 140 million, but until they get to that part of the equation (if), they need to understand everything they do amount to nothing more than words.

Words are powerful, I understand being cautious with them, I don’t understand pretending there is a situation in which the Pirates would add to payroll in 2021. Even if they chose to extend 3 or 4 players chances are they’d not affect payroll next season much.

I guess what I’m saying is I expect just a bit more directness from the Pirates, but as the league they play in tends to practice the same kind of light deceit perhaps I shouldn’t.

Breaking Down The Pirates Rule 5 Draft Possibilities

Ever since the deadline passed to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft, Pirates Fans and media members alike have taken to social media, as well as their own sites and publications, to inform the masses of potential targets that other teams around Major League Baseball chose not to add to their 40-man rosters. These are the untapped gems that their own organization, who knows them better than anyone else, has cast aside in order for General Manager Ben Cherington to unearth them from ashes. There is the pitcher that will resurrect himself into the front line starter he had always projected to be, the catcher that can finally solve the Pirates issues of depth at the position or the multi-tool position player that will thrust himself in lineup everyday and straight into the hearts of anyone who walks into PNC Park.

Now I know that I am being a little bit over dramatic, but I am just trying to drive home the point. In all of the years the Rule 5 Draft has been around, there have only been a handful of players selected that went on to become anything more than a replacement level and even fewer that rose to greatness. Is this an argument for Cherington sitting out the process and not making a pick? Absolutely not! Is this an an attempt to temper expectations and punctuate a more realistic outcome for what will take place on December 10th? Absolutely!

This past year, during the Major League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft, there were eleven total players players selected; two of whom where taken by the Baltimore Orioles. Of these eleven players nine of them actually saw big league action in 2020, while the other two players were returned to their original ball club prior to the start of the season; putting to rest the belief that if you select a player in the Rule 5 Draft you will just hide him on your roster or help him develop for the future. If you pick someone, and keep them, you are going to play them. As the regulations state, Rule 5 Draft picks are assigned directly to the 26-man roster of the team that had selected them and must be placed on outright waivers in order to be removed from the 26-man roster in the upcoming season; and even if the player does clear waivers he must be offered back to his previous team for $50,000. Then at that point if his original ball club doesn’t want him back, he can finally be sent to your team’s Minor League System.

So for all of you advocating that the Pirates should pick up a third catcher, think about the fact that this player could be on your roster for the entirety of the season and actually have to sit behind the dish at some point as well. Out of the four catchers I have seen mentioned, only one of them has any experience above High A; 14 games of experience to be exact. If you want to see someone who is lost behind the plate, waving at breaking balls, letting pitches bounce right past them and mixing up signals while frustrating pitchers, you would get your fill.

Additionally if you are expecting immediate high level production for a player the Pirates select, chances are you are going to be disappointed as well. In 2020 the Rule 5 Draft Pick with the highest WAR was Yohan Rameriz for the Seattle Mariners, with a .5. He appeared in 16 games and pitched 20.1 innings, while posting a 2.61 ERA, a 6.05 FIP and a 1.403 WHIP. In those 20.1 innings he struck out 26 batters, but also walked 20 in the process. Brandon Bailey of the Houston Astros was the only other player in the black, as earned a .1 WAR in 5 games and 7.1 innings. Every other player had a WAR of 0.0 or below; two of whom had a WAR as low as -.5; including the highest ranked prospect Sterling Sharp.

I also see many people just rattling off names from other team’s top 30 prospect lists from MLB Pipeline, thinking this is the way that it works. Only two players selected last year were the top 30 prospects of their respective organizations, RHP Sterling Sharp (Washington National’s #13) and SS (Houston Astros #25). That is two out of eleven players selected. In other years it has been higher, however in other years there have been none. Chances are the guy the Pirates select, if they choose to do so, will be one you probably have never heard before and that you won’t be able to find by just opening up a top prospects list.

As an example, the last time the Pirates picked a player in the Major League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft, they selected right handed pitcher Jordan Milbrath from the Cleveland Indians with the 8th overall pick in December of 2017. Ever heard of him? I am guessing not. He was returned to Indians by the Pirates prior to the start of the 2018 season and was released from a third team, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ system in May of 2020; making him a Minor League Free Agent at the moment.

Once again this is not a deterrent to selecting a player, if the Pirates and Cherington believe one of the available guys is better than what exists on the team, as well as within the organization as it stands pertaining to Major League ready talent. It is always a possibility that this type of player exists and is ripe for the picking. However, for me this entire process is more about the players in the organization that the General Manager, in this case Ben Cherington, chose to protect. This shows me more about his vision for the future; much more than any Rule 5 Draft Pick could.

Top Pirate Fan Wishes

Every Pirate fan shares one top wish, to win. Expecting to see that in 2021 is probably premature especially since I just can’t see Ben Cherington being done moving players from the roster. Everyone who spends time commenting and questioning about the direction of the club has a take as unique as a snowflake and I thought as we sit here in between important dates on the calendar perhaps we should address a few.

10. Trade for a Top Prospect Catcher

The reason none of these will be as simple as yes or no is because each has an almost equal amount of reasons why it will or won’t work. One thing to keep in mind here is catchers are hard to come by, at least when you’re looking for the next Realmuto. The Bucs could find a defensively reliable catcher available, and they might very well happily grab him, but it will be hard to upgrade from Stallings in that regard. If you really want a top end catching talent who can hit and defend you’ll be hard pressed to find a team that themselves isn’t anxiously awaiting their arrival.

The position the Bucs are in right now would either force them to look in the lower levels to pick up an option further away or make it the focus of a major trade. They have precious few options who could return such a player, at least right now. One of their starting pitchers might get the job done but pitching prospects is another commodity they’ll need to find in return, so we’ll quickly start to see the priority list.

9. Cut Polanco

Seems too easy to just say no, but no. 11.6 Million reasons why. The reality is, even if he is just as bad as he looked in 2020, he’ll hit 20+ homeruns and while nobody will trade for him to play like that at his full season figure, even a decent start could make him an attractive deadline piece for someone. If that doesn’t happen, the buyout will still be there, and I have no doubt they’ll exercise it, but right now you’re asking the club to say, nah, we don’t need those 20+ homeruns and we don’t need it so much let’s pay 11.6 million dollars to get rid of it. Just not going to happen. 1 more year, unless he has a Jose Bautista style breakout.

8. Put O’neil Cruz in Right Field!

Maybe. I certainly can’t tell you that isn’t the plan. Cole Tucker never played the outfield before they plopped him out there in 2020 and that came with zero warning. Not even a whisper they were thinking about it. My answer on this is always the same, right now the team has shown no interest in moving him from Short Stop, but as I just referenced, that means little. He’s an athlete, and he’ll catch on somewhere, and it will be in 2021 at some point.

7. Where Will Cherington Spend the 5 Million He Saved With DFAs?

I doubt he will. The payroll is going to go down this season and I think it would even if baseball didn’t just undergo a financially crippling 2020. OK, at least they say it was financially crippling.

It’s where they are in the rebuild more than being cheap. Note that I say ‘more than’ because we shouldn’t pretend it’s not a little of both. I’ve said before that I’d like to see them go buy a piece like a corner outfielder or a solid reliever because even if they don’t expect to win right now, and they shouldn’t, those players could turn into chips they can flip for prospects to accelerate the build.

More likely we’ll get a list of Phil Evans type players and Derek Holland style rehab projects.

If they’re to be believed they’ll spend when it matters, but anyone not taking that with a huge grain of salt probably just jumped on the bandwagon in 2013 and don’t fully understand what many of us have seen.

If you’re looking for different, Neal said we had to come to games so they had money to spend, then didn’t. Ben is saying when we are in striking distance we’ll spend and have been assured we can. It’s all words until we see it.

6. Almost Everyone Should be Available to Trade

Every time this is uttered it’s followed with ‘excepts Keller, Hayes and Reynolds’. That’s true, they should be open to anyone else, but that doesn’t mean they want to move everyone. Some of these guys could very well be part of the make up when the team starts to get the window open and there isn’t a glut of young players being held back, blocked in the minors waiting for the parent club to make room. Yeah Will Craig, but that isn’t worth moving either Moran or Bell below market value, or at least he Pirates perceived value.

So, yes, almost everyone is technically available, but it’s fair to say some they’d be less anxious to move than others. Next off season when all the guys with two years of control turn into guys with one year left, the Bucs will have to get more serious about deciding on extension versus trades, but the hope would be more youth is making a push at that time. It’s a balancing act and unless Ben has a DeLorean hanging out in his garage with a flux capacitor we need to realize it took some time to create this situation and it will take some time to get out of it.

5. This Team Won’t Ever Win Until They Spend

Well, probably true, but not next season. This team couldn’t possibly buy their way out of this situation. Let’s say Ben was just reckless and took whatever he could get for anyone to make room for signings. Say he takes the payroll down to 20 million which would be Polanco and everyone else on rookie deals. His top end would be somewhere in the 130 to 140 range, and trust me when I tell you, that better be a playoff team. They’d need at least 3 starting pitchers, one outfielder, a first baseman and at least a chunk of bullpen arms. That’s a ton to ask for on the free agent market for 100 million.

They will need to spend, but most of that needs to come from discovering and extending their own discoveries. They just can’t play in the deep end of the pool, they don’t swim well enough.

4. We Can’t Trust Taillon to Be Healthy

True. How could you? This isn’t about this guy being made of glass or trainers mishandling him. It’s about a guy who has a violent delivery and on top of that was blessed with ligaments and tendons that want to be human, not an MLB starting pitcher. You simply can’t count on him to anchor the staff but you also can’t relegate him to the bullpen without seeing what he can do.

First, he’s worth more as a starter and both he and team still want him there. Make no mistake though, this is his last chance. Doesn’t mean if he goes on the IL with an oblique strain he’s done, but another arm injury and he won’t be part of this club’s plans.

As it stands now, he doesn’t have enough control left to prove he’s past the issues. If he pitches a clean 2021 it’ll help and the Pirates could either extend him reasonably or move him but the history of his struggles won’t just go away.

The only person not questioning what Taillon can provide for the club is probably Jamo himself.

3. What is the Worst Outcome for 2021?

Easy, anything that alters the timeline. The top of the food chain here is Bryan Reynolds showing that 2020 was not a blip. If Reynolds isn’t an answer the club is further away than they think. Same goes for Hayes and Keller.

If any of those three fail to either continue to improve or continue to devolve the club loses what few anchors they have to opening the next window. The window would shift from a possible 2023 crack to maybe 24-25. It’s that drastic.

If they all perform well they become the elder statesman on a young team with the arrow pointed up, fail and they add to the list of questions this club has to find a way to answer. Hayes alone carries the weight of there being no real parachute at third beyond him in the system.

No, the record isn’t paramount. Marginal improvement would be nice but it also wouldn’t shift the overall picture.

2. Who is the Most Likely Candidate to Take a Big Step Forward in 2021?

I’d have to go with Mitch Keller. Hard to imagine Hayes looking better than he did in his 2020 cup of coffee, but Mitch should really establish himself this season. He doesn’t have to be in the Cy Young conversation, but he needs to show he is one player that this rotation can build around.

The best thing is, if he’s healthy, that’s exactly the track he’s on. Last season he needed to establish he could control his stuff and hunt outs and he showed he could miss more bats than any of us projected.

He may not be the best pitcher in the rotation next season, but he sure as hell has the most upside, time for it to show.

1. What is the Most Exciting Possibility for 2021? AKA Why Should I Watch?

Well, if you don’t want to watch until the team is in the hunt again, probably nothing. If you’re willing to try to enjoy the process a bit, ask yourself questions about who is here and watch for them to be answered. For instance, 2021 is a key year for Kevin Newman. He was in the conversation for ROY in 2019 and last year he fell off the table. With what is coming up behind him he won’t be able to hide under the mantle of first round pick much longer.

He doesn’t need to be a .300 hitter but he needs to become more consistent and it wouldn’t hurt if he recaptured the bit of pop he added in 2019. He’s going to get a shot, but he needs to capitalize on it or he’ll quickly be passed as he plays one of the few positions with surging pressure behind him.

Can Jacob Stallings become a little more consistent with the bat? At 29 years old he is never going to become the young future backstop this club ultimately needs but he could become one hell of an option if he can just get his average around .260.

Things like that start to paint a picture and the questions you ask yourself will start to give you focus as the overall picture might not be pretty.

A Last Place Team With An Overflowing Roster

As Gary wrote about yesterday on the site and as I am guessing all of you know by now, General Manager Ben Cherington made the the decision to DFA fan favorite, starting pitcher Trevor Williams, along with utility man Jose Osuna at the Rule 5 Protection Deadline at 6pm on Friday; both of whom had years of team control under the arbitration process. These moves were made in order to safeguard Pirates Prospects, Infielder Rodolfo Castro and Starting Pitcher Max Kranick from being selected during the Rule 5 Draft on December 10th, by adding them to the team’s 40 man roster. The pair had been at Pittsburgh’s Alternate Site in Altoona during the season and are currently listed on the top 30 on MLB Pipeline (Kranick at #24 and Castro at #26), while Castro had also participated in the Instructional League and is as high as the #12 Prospect on Fangraphs. These moves were necessary and somewhat expected; seeing as myself and Gary have been talking and writing about it for what seems like forever, but there is still a lot of work that needs to be done.

Currently the Pittsburgh Pirates 40-man remains full with Friday’s corresponding moves, they still have at least 13 arbitration eligible players and there still is a possibility of them wanting to add one or maybe even two players of their own in the Rule 5 draft. All of these decisions have to be made in the less than three weeks, many of them much sooner; and this does not even take Cherington’s plans of adding pitching and discussing trade opportunities concerning his own players beyond this period of time.

No matter what it is going to be a busy off-season for the Pirates Front Office, with a lot to unpack and sort, some of which seems pretty plain and simple to me; and can easily be checked off Cherington’s to do list.

First is the list of arbitration eligible players that can comfortably by non-tendered on or before December 2nd. Two obvious candidates, Kyle Crick and Michael Feliz, still exist from the six that I wrote about in my Arbitration Overload over a month ago. I could reasonably be talked into a couple of other players, including Erik Gonzalez and Chris Stratton, depending on how many spots Cherington would like to have open for the Rule 5 Draft and Free Agency.

Next would be the at least three, but possibly four pitchers that are depth pieces more than anything else; two of which have Minor League Options and could possibly be passed through waivers. It is not to say that Cherington has to make these moves; however, if anyone can make the case of Nik Turley, Austin Davis, Tyler Bashlor and Carson Fulmer being a part of the Pirates beyond next year, I am all ears.

Lastly would be the process of offering Minor League Contracts with invitations to Spring Training to the abundance of free agents that exist on the market. The Mets and A’s have already taken advantage of this opportunity, so it only makes sense for a building team like the Pirates to do the same. Now I know that a majority of these moves are made simply to be able to conduct drills at Pirate City or to fill up a AAA roster, but they sometimes end up being for players that can contribute during the upcoming season (John Ryan Murphy and Derek Holland) or hopefully beyond (Phillip Evans).

Each of these steps can be taken prior to the Rule 5 Draft and in preparation for more extensive trade talks, along with other free agent signings provided that Cherington would like to do so. These are not necessary moves and I am already happy with the direction he has taken thus far in the short time since the off-season began, but it would go along way in my book if he kept his foot on the gas and continued to mold the Pirates organization in a way that shows things are going to be different moving forward.

Cherington Starts to Make His Mark, DFA’s for Trevor Williams and Jose Osuna

The story today could be about what Trevor Williams has done here in Pittsburgh, or oh shucks about Jose Osuna never getting a chance. Did we let them go too soon? How could they give up on them with all that control? Surely there are worse players than these two?

Someone else can give you that, I’ve called for Trevor Williams to be done in Pittsburgh for the best part of a year and I’ll not kick a guy on his way out of town. I truly believe Osuna will wind up being a decent player somewhere, but he worked his way through two coaching staffs without managing to impress either. They’re both nice guys, all that happy stuff that you again can read elsewhere. For me, this is a message sent directly from the GM to his team, the fan base and everyone below him in the organization. Not good enough will no longer be overlooked because they’re cheap for a while still.

Larry Broadway was officially moved to little more than a hall monitor position in the offices, completely severing him from baseball ops. This too sends a message.

The moves were not seismic and won’t be the last he makes in the very near future, but Neal Huntington would never have cut a veteran pitcher who was going to get roughly 3.5 million no matter how he performed. The lore of trying to find a way to get something for him would have never been something he could have passed on.

We’d have watched another season of Trevor trying his backside off but been asking the same questions. Why can’t he get past 5 innings? Why does he keep nibbling instead of attacking the zone the way he did in 2018? Could he be better in the pen? I’d rather see Brubaker! On and on and on. Instead he did something we don’t see here often enough, he said enough of not being good enough. There is nothing to be gained by trying to get whatever small return he might provide if he did manage to start the season in top form. In other words, the team shouldn’t suffer through bad performance based on a longshot chance he finds the magic he once harnessed for half a season.

We should no longer expect that a player who can’t ever crack the lineup is going to continue to be your first or second call up season after season. The power that could be, never was and at some point the experiment ends.

It’s encouraging, and exactly what I hoped for. Different. Not thinking or acting like a last place team. No longer making decisions solely based on the hope you find a diamond in a clump of mud.

This doesn’t mean he’ll do everything right, but one thing it says to me is that he isn’t afraid to move on when the time is upon him.

Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but in the past few weeks we’ve seen this GM cut ties with Chris Archer because he was too much risk for the money, allow Dovydas Neverauskas to walk away (finally), and now Trevor, Jose and Broadway. Oh yes, things are changing, and I love it.

I picked both Osuna and Williams to wind up as non-tender possibilities early on, but honestly, I planned to be writing a story about how I think they made a mistake by deciding to keep them, instead I’m left with a renewed sense of hope that the Bucs did in fact, get the right guy for the job.

Great start, and I for the first time in at least 5 years can honestly say, I can’t wait to see what he does next.

An Odd Situation for the Pirates

It always seems like when something weird happens in baseball the Pirates are part of the story, as news broke on Wednesday that teams had expressed interest in four members of the Bucs starting rotation it struck me just how odd that is for a team that finished last overall.

So, what happened here? What is the league seeing that the Pirates clearly didn’t benefit from? More importantly, what could this mean for 2021?

Let’s start at the beginning, the players who have been mentioned are Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams. Most of the fan shock has been over the inclusion of Brault, but for me it has to be Trevor Williams.

This could mean anything from availability to an overriding belief that some if not all underperformed in 2020. Let’s start with availability. Keeping secrets in professional sports is hard, and the most difficult one to keep is where your club is in its evolution. Other GM’s know what’s going on here in Pittsburgh and while we sometimes sit on every word Ben Cherington shares with the media and parse it for information as to what he plans, his competition need only understand that he is willing to listen.

On the other side, the underperformed aspect, we’re looking at more of the why. Why would teams be interested in 4 pitchers who helped lead the Pirates to the worst record in baseball. Well, control and potential, sprinkled with a hint of understanding.

In other words, Joe did well in his last few starts and many people give him a pass for the overall record since he spent the majority of the season injured. People understand that Kuhl was returning from a long TJ recovery and may have just reached his groove by the close of the 2020 bastardized season. Brault, is left handed, has control and has shown ability to start or pitch out of the pen. Williams is cheap, experienced and worth a shot at least according to whatever team is interested in him.

I’ve written about the Pirates rotation for 2021, way too early of course, and I’ve laid out 8 pitchers who could be part of it, so moving one of two of these players wouldn’t completely kill the rotation and if the goal is to truly stock the system, moving anyone you don’t see as part of that eventual window makes sense.

None of these guys would be true salary dumps as none of them make enough to worry about, even for the Pirates.

We can talk about return all we want but if they do this the way most rebuilding clubs do, you won’t know most of what they get back. As I’ve said, if they leave this team untouched, they’ll improve in 2021, so purely from a fan’s perspective any of these moves won’t be greeted kindly. That said, there is a way to really understand what this is about.

See, if you have a yard sale and in the morning you go in your garage and start emptying trash bags on the ground to pick through and find things to sell, you probably aren’t going to get much. If you are able to part with that lawn mower that doesn’t have a sharp blade anymore, you might be able to sell it to someone who can fix it up and use it better than you could for a few more years while you get money (young prospects) in exchange.

Now imagine who you’re selling to knows you just had your entire lawn reseeded and as it’s November, they also know you won’t be cutting grass for quite some time. In other words, they know you don’t need it right now. They’ll be more interested because they are reasonably assured they can pry it off you and eventually you’ll be more open too as you come to grips with that fact.

Bottom line there is value in all these players and if they don’t plan on extending them that value is on an ever decreasing clock. It won’t feel good when and if they pull the trigger on any of these, well most, but it might just be best for when the club plans to be in the game again.

Is Steven Brault A Legitimate Trade Chip For The Pirates?

If you would have asked me anything about Steven Brault’s potential prior to Wednesday morning, I probably would start by discussing his last two outings of the 2020 season; including the chemistry he and Jacob Stallings exhibited in developing and executing a successful game plan, followed by the fact that I more than likely have him penciled in as the Pirates number four or five starter in next year’s rotation. At no time did the possibility of a trade involving Brault enter into my mind, but I guess it obviously should have based on today’s news as reported by Jon Morosi of the MLB Network.

For Brault his journey to this point has been less than direct and often filled with major uncertainties, some of which arose as recently as the beginning of the 2019 Major League Baseball season. After appearing only twice out of the bullpen for the Pirates over the first nine games, he was optioned to the AAA-Indianapolis Indians. When he was recalled a few days later there was a period of a little over a month where he bounced back and forth between a relief role and spot starts before finally earning a place in the rotation at the end of May. Unfortunately Brault found himself back with the Indians in the beginning of August; this time due to a shoulder strain rather than performance. On the year as a whole he earned a 4.99 ERA, a 1.484 WHIP and 3-5 record in 19 games started. None of these numbers jump off the page as being anything other than below average. However, during the off-season I did a deep dive behind the numbers on Brault, and every other Pirates pitcher for that matter, for my previous employer to determine if there was any room for improvement with a change in pitch selection.

During the 2019 season he threw his four seam fastball almost 50% of the time, while utilizing his his slider only 20% of the time. When Brault threw his slider he got a 22% Swinging Strike Rate and only allowed a .202 AVG, with a .595 OPS. His fastball was not as successful as it resulted in an .285 AVG and a .883 OPS. However, the biggest problem with this pitch was the low 8.4% Swinging Strike Rate. Brault’s second best pitch was his changeup, which is a good compliment to the fastball and slider. It yielded his second highest Swinging Strike Rate (14.1%) and his second lowest AVG allowed (.217). During this article I suggested that Brault would be wise to drop two of his least effective pitches, his curve and his sinker. His curveball was only thrown a little over 1% of the time and when it was Brault struggled with his command; apparent by the 1.000 OPS on zero hits. The second pitch was the dreaded sinker, which each and every team the Pirates faced exposed for .326 AVG and .869 OPS, while only causing a 2.6% Swinging Strike Rate.

When Spring Training began this past February it looked as if Brault was going to get his shot at the starting rotation, but was ultimately shut down on March 2nd, for at least two weeks, with a left shoulder strain. It seemed as if he was not going to be available for Opening Day. At that point in time no one knew that the season wasn’t going to start until the end of July. Even with the unexpected time off Brault still needed to be built back up and stretched out over his first four appearances; throwing a maximum of 37 pitches. After this he was hot and cold over his next five outings, prior to the aforementioned two strong outings to end the season. In his final 16 innings he allowed only one run on four hits, while striking out 14; finishing the season with a 3.38 ERA (2.53 as a starter) and a 1.195 WHIP. These performances, along with the overall numbers, obviously left quite an impression heading into the current off-season; evident by the somewhat unexpected interest. Nevertheless, I am still left wondering if this intrigue is justified? And more importantly, if Steven Brault is actually a legitimate trade chip for General Manager Ben Cherington and the Pirates?

My assessment was initiated by a quick evaluation of Brault’s rankings on Baseball Savant as it pertains to his advanced metrics.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/steven-brault-643230?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

It is abundantly clear that his improved numbers were a direct result of the ability to induce soft contact, which was a career low 85.8 mph; almost a full 5 mph lower than the previous season. The success level of the majority of his pitches, other than his curveball, also didn’t hurt at all. Batters hit .160 against his four seamer, .121 on his change, .211 facing the sinker and .235 off his slider. One main concern for me is his BB/9 which has been well below the league average of 2.9 for his entire career; and despite having a breakout year, it still sat at 4.64. That in conjunction with his xERA of 4.49, FIP of 3.92 and xFIP of 4.85, makes me think there is potential for regression back to a pitcher who is closer to a full earned run on average higher than his career low of 3.38.

So, what’s the appeal? Well, I believe that most of it has to do with his cost and control. In his year of arbitration eligibility, he is expected to earn around $1.5 million dollars in 2021 and is not a free agent until 2024. It probably also has to do with the overall market surrounding left handed starters, coupled with his ability to fill roles as both a starter and long reliever.

Now, what does all of this mean as far as trade value? Honestly, it’s hard to gauge based on the newfound attraction, as well as a sporadically effective track record. However, since it is teams approaching the Pirates and not the other way around, I have to think it would involve at least one low level prospect that could ultimately be bolstered by a “piggyback” trade situation; requiring Pittsburgh to add another enticing player to go along with Brault. Either way this recent development isn’t something that Cherington can ignore. Instead it should be weighed with the utmost consideration as to how it can help the Pirates of the future; just like every other move he makes this off-season and beyond.

Kevin Kramer – The Forgotten Man

In little over two years Kevin Kramer went from the Pirates top middle infield prospect to part of a Seinfeld inspired punchline and ultimately to the odd man out. These days Kramer is rarely even mentioned as someone with a shot of being a bench player in Pittsburgh and since we’ve seen precious little from him on the field I found myself asking, what the hell happened here?

There is a label many give players like Kevin, Quad A player. I can’t say that’s wrong but I also can’t say he’s been given the same chance as others. Between injury and indecisiveness as to where he might fit best on the field Kevin has participated in 43 MLB games over two seasons from 2018-2019 and he missed 2020 all together.

Just about 20 days ago the Pirates officially outrighted him to AAA Indianapolis, which wasn’t a surprise, but he faces hurdles to get back to the show beyond even those of his personal performance.

First, he’s now 27 years old, very hard to continue to call him a prospect and fair or not, in his 43 games he has underwhelmed. Never managing to bring the power to MLB he displayed in AAA.

This isn’t Mickey Mantle mind you, but for a second baseman 15 homeruns in 120 some games isn’t a joke either, essentially there was reason to be excited about him and for quite some time visions of he and Kevin Newman manning the middle of the Pirates Defense seemed like it faced little opposition.

As we sit here today, it’s hard to even put him on a list of possibilities. A second round pick Kevin set off on his Pirates career in West Virginia playing both short and full seasons in 2015, then on to Bradenton and back to West Virginia in 2016. In 2017 he was promoted to AA Altoona and things started coming together as he hit .297 in a full season for the Curve. It’s not as though he was terrible before that season but nothing that would raise an eyebrow either.

Then in 2018 he brought the wood. Out of nowhere he hit 15 dingers in his first season for Indianapolis and this is when his name started coming up in discussions of the future. Did I mention he did that with a .311 average too? I mean this had all the makings of a late bloomer, someone the Pirates had ‘found’ in the draft. While most teams actually expect their 2nd round picks to contribute at some point it had become somewhat of a coup for something like that to occur in Pittsburgh.

This performance earned him a call up in 2018 along with double play partner Kevin Newman, and let’s just say it didn’t go well for either. Kevin Newman went from short stop of the future to, oh my god we need to get a short stop, hi Erik Gonzalez. And Kevin Kramer was all but out of the equation, especially after they planted Adam Frazier at second base.

In 2019 his average would drop to .260, the power fell back to earth with 10 home runs but he still earned another call up, this time though the Pirates would bounce him all over the diamond. Third base, second base, and both corner outfield spots and he handled them all fairly well, but the bat didn’t travel.

I can’t sit here and tell you he was part of the plan in 2020, but an ill timed injury took that chance away and he’ll most likely start on an aging AAA Indianapolis Indians squad in 2021.

Kevin’s story is a micro chasm for the failure of Neal Huntington. I’m not a guy who thinks he was a failure from stem to stern but in the area of drafting and development, his warts have shown catastrophic.

Drafting a college Junior requires a different path but the Pirates far too often treated players like this exactly the same as a High School Senior. The same path leads some to have no opportunity to crack a major league lineup before they are 25 if they’re lucky, 27 if they aren’t, and most aren’t.

Kevin is collateral damage. Now, he may never have made it with another organization either, that fact can’t be overlooked, but here he had no chance as his timeline was always going to have him playing prime years in the minors.

Who knows what 2021 will bring, maybe the Bucs will trade so many players that Kramer ultimately get’s a shot and shows good, but even so, it’s hard to call a 27 year old “future”.

For the sake of comparison, not talent level or statistically but purely a path, Austin Meadows was drafted in 2013 right out of high school and his path was very similar to Kevin Kramer’s. The difference is by the time Austin fought through the standard progression the Pirates used he was 23 whereas Kevin was 25. It matters.

Again a much different player but imagine Nick Gonzales who is right now 21 years old being sent on the same path. If that happened he wouldn’t reach AAA until he was 24 or 25. Not aged out of baseball by any stretch but hardly a kid. As we approach the start of the season we’ll see where they place Nick and all the players they drafted in 2020, more importantly we’ll see how they allow them to progress.

I had gotten very accustomed to ignoring the projected arrival dates for prospects over the years because the Pirates have always thought themselves smarter, well the evidence is in, they weren’t. What they built was a pipeline with a clog.

What’s Next for Cole Tucker?

Deep question. Here’s another first round pick for the Pirates, this one from 2014, two years longer than Will Craig who we just discussed yesterday. The perception is much different though, and it’s largely based on the age they were drafted. Tucker was drafted out of high school, while Craig was a College senior.

Cole made his debut in 2019 and after the excitement wore, his areas of deficiency started to become apparent. Again, Cole is only 24, so he isn’t in danger of being aged out of a shot but the strange way the club has chosen to deploy him might.

It’s hard to argue, right this second, Cole Tucker is the best short stop on the club. He’s got range for days and an arm to match but the Pirates decided to put him in center field instead. It didn’t go well, and I have a very hard time blaming Tucker. He had never played the position before and it showed. The metrics are all there, he’s fast, athletic, has a hell of an arm, it all makes sense from that perspective but beyond the obvious defensive questions, many including myself asked, will he ever hit like he needs to at that position?

A reader commented yesterday something that really struck me, and it’s an embarrassingly simple premise. One of my solutions in my Will Craig piece was to potentially give him a shot in right field, the reader suggested why would you not play him at first and move Bell to right? In other words, why create two holes in the defense instead of 1?

I mean, Bell in the outfield isn’t going to happen, but that simple thought really hit me. I just wrote up there that Tucker is the best short stop on the club and he didn’t get a chance to play there in 2020. Newman earned playing time with his bat in 2019, I guess the thought was that Gonzalez was almost just as good at short and the bat was negligible.

That was 2020 though. I have no way to verify this but I firmly believe had 2020 been normal Tucker starts the season in AAA, possibly even learning the outfield. As we head into 2021, I can’t see Tucker getting back out there. Anthony Alford will get a shot, and probably not a short look at that. Jared Oliva got a cup of coffee last year and I see him being part of the mix too.

So is the Erik Gonzalez as an everyday starter experiment over? If it is, ok, Tucker slots right in as the short stop, Newman at second. But we have that pesky Adam Frazier, who loses his spot in the outfield if Reynolds moves back to left.

Sure, trades could and should happen, but if they don’t, before you know it, Cole Tucker will join Will Craig as a very long in the tooth prospect that hasn’t managed to stick or get a real chance.

I believe at the plate Tucker was given opportunity in 2020, for what that season was worth, but it’s hard to say very much went his way. With his speed, having an OBP below .300 is a crime, and made many think of Willie Mays Hayes doing pushups for hitting the ball in the air, well at least until it came out that the Pirates had changed the plane of his swing to induce more launch angle.

Put it this way, side by side, who do you expect more from in 2021, Phil Evans or Cole Tucker? I’ll pause here so you can argue with yourself before ultimately landing on Evans. That’s a problem.

Of all the issues that Ben Cherington inherited, the legacy of Neal Huntington’s drafts might be the hardest to overcome. On one hand you have to try to get something out of who he picked, on the other Ben’s name isn’t on any of them and if it isn’t going to work, it isn’t going to work.

I fear Travis Swaggerty is also in this category, although I’ll admit I’m not in the majority with this thought. Having watched both he and Jared Oliva play I have no qualms telling you I think Oliva has the brighter future.

More than money, the pathetic history of Pittsburgh’s number one draft picks is the single biggest reason for where they are today. For every Ke’Bryan Hayes there are three Will Craig’s in the past two decades.

Nick Gonzales, as we speak, is the best prospect in the system and he just got picked in a season where he couldn’t play organized baseball. Good news considering who is doing the drafting now, bad news because it should never be that easy to jump to the top of the board in an organization.

Cole Tucker has talent, I’m not pronouncing him dead, but opportunity is taken more often than given for a prospect in MLB. If Cole wants to live up to his draft position he’ll probably need to take the bull by the horns, because nobody is going to just give it to him.

Will Craig is Officially 26 Years Old

First of all, happy birthday is in order for Mr. Craig, but there aren’t a whole lot of good things that come from a first round pick reaching that age before sticking in the league.

It would be one thing if he looked like he had a shot this season, it’d be a late start but at least he’d be getting started. As it stands right now, I just don’t see the room to have him come North with the club after Spring Training. And that is a problem both for him and the club.

This isn’t a ‘bust’ so much as a guy who is blocked and isn’t dynamic enough to force others out of the way. Doesn’t mean he can’t, just hasn’t.

If the Pirates move Colin Moran or Josh Bell, Will Craig won’t have a problem making the team, it’s really that simple. In 2019 he hit 23 homeruns and struck out 146 times in a little under 500 plate appearances for the Indianapolis Indians. Now, I’m weird, at least as far as modern baseball goes. See those strikeout numbers in AAA scare the hell out of me and his brief appearance in the lineup last season certainly didn’t shed any light, but make no mistake, he is the next man up if either of those two get dealt.

Maybe he’s one of those guys who just needs a shot and everything comes together, maybe he’s someone the Bucs could potentially deal to sweeten the pot. Funny thing is, one thing this club needs is power and Craig has potential to provide it, so you’d hate to see them cut bait without giving him a real run at it.

What about putting him in the outfield? In 2019 the Pirates tried just that, moving their gold glove first base prospect to right field for 13 games. In those 13 games he had 22 chances for put outs and made 19, with two errors and a fielding percentage of .909. Not great. Not that we should have expected it would be, but still, not great. Also an incredibly small sample size, and we’ll never know if the club planned to continue with the experiment in 2020 since it never happened.

I know what you’re thinking, can he be worse than Polanco? In a word, yes. Don’t get me wrong, he could grow into the position too, but it’s not a given he’ll take to it and is it worth the gamble to add in a right handed Polanco? They could platoon if he can handle it, and I won’t rule out that being exactly what they’ll try because the alternative may very well be to let him rot.

He’s only been in the organization since 2016, four years isn’t an example of someone being held back exactly, but when you draft an older college athlete sending him to two seasons of rookie ball isn’t exactly normal either.

Hard to say it wasn’t warranted, he was drafted as a power threat and at Wake Forrest he slugged over .700 twice. Follow that up in West Virginia and Bradenton with numbers in the .350 range and you start to get a picture of why its been tough sledding. The slug numbers have normalized a bit settling in the .450 range and while it’s not elite, it’s closer to effective.

I’ll say this, if they want to give him a shot, it probably needs to happen this season because the club has plenty of players moving up the ranks who could and probably should play first base, not least of which is Mason Martin. Right field is going to be a spot for any of a number of current short stops who need a place to play and that all adds up to 2021 being Craig’s best shot at getting his feet wet and showing he belongs.

Again, happy birthday, 26 isn’t exactly Methuselah, but it’s also coming dangerously close to eating prime years from his career. Time to make some decisions here in Pittsburgh.