A Willingness to Work to Improve – Why it Matters that Polanco is Playing Winter Ball

Recently the Pirates mentioned they were pleased that Gregory Polanco agreed to play WInter Ball this off season, for many this was little more than a footnote, but for Gregory it’s both an admission he’s underperformed and a display of good faith that he wants to earn his contract figure.

Polanco has played winter ball in his native Dominican Republic before, twice to be precise the last time in the 2013-2014 off season. His performance there really laid the foundation for his eventual call up to Pittsburgh in the 2014 season. In 44 games and 194 plate appearances he had 55 hits, that’s a .331 average for those of you who hated every math class they ever took. 5 of those hits were home runs and he had 28 RBIs.

Now, that was over 6 years ago, I’m certainly not trying to tell you these numbers reflect the player he became in Pittsburgh but there is something to be said for getting back to your roots, enjoying the game again. Probably more importantly, playing again.

In the past two MLB seasons Polanco has managed to play a total of 92 games, arguably a full third of them either not fully recovered from a debilitating injury suffered at the hands of his own poor technique.

Getting better and playing that few ballgames in a two year span don’t go hand in hand. What this willingness on his part and request on the Pirates end of the deal really mean are two things. First, the team must believe he is fully recovered, now that doesn’t mean he will ever regain the arm strength he once had but it does mean structurally they believe he is not a risk to irritate the injury by playing regular baseball. Second, Gregory himself must understand he can’t just coast through 2021 and hope his option is picked up or another team will give him a sniff.

I don’t write any of this to try and paint a picture that Polanco hasn’t cared during his career, I actually don’t believe that in any way. Instead what I’m trying to illustrate is a player who understands he can’t expect to play a game he loves (at least not for nearly as much as he currently does) much longer if he doesn’t start showing more than potential. Injury and sky high expectations have surely slowed him down but at some point potential doesn’t cut it anymore, and at 29 years old, it’s long since passed time he no longer be talked about in terms of having some ceiling we haven’t seen yet.

His 2018 season was his best, where he was a 2.1 WAR player. Sure his 2015 was 2.5 but 2018 was his most complete work. 23 homeruns in 130 games with a .254 batting average, that’s it, that’s the mountain top. If he gives you that in 2021 it’s a very happy turn of events, one that would at least make the Pirates have to have some meetings before executing his buyout clause.

Not every player is going to maximize their potential, or hit like the body type they live life in, but there is room on every team for someone who will club over 20 homeruns and hit above .250, in fact that is what puts a player in that elusive 2.0+ WAR territory that most MLB starters should hope to achieve. Again, not an All-Star player, just a steady starter. When you’re 26, people will to a degree pay for the apparent upside, but a few short years later, not so much.

Playing this Winter is a good development and shows the kind of cooperation needed for both organization and player. It’s a good sign that the management isn’t afraid to make sure even one of the few veterans doesn’t think he’s arrived or that underperformance is going to be waived off.

Here’s hoping Greg forces the Pirates to have to make a difficult decision after 2021. If he does the Pirates will be able to thank themselves in addition to Polanco for the privilege.

The Pirates Offseason Perspective: Potential Free Agents and Possible Trade Pieces

A couple of nights ago, Tuesday November 3rd, I found myself doing the same thing as many other Red Blooded Americans across the country; searching through Major League Baseball Free Agent lists, trying to identify realistic targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates to add prior to the beginning of the 2021 season. While my eyes scrolled up and down the screen in front of me, mental comparisons to players from the Pirates who have been mentioned in trade rumors were formed; wondering if General Managers across the league would be willing to part with prospects instead of picking a player off the open market.

Heading into this past off-season, even after Cherington was ushered in, and as we approached the most recent trade deadline, I regularly predicted minimal moves to be made by Pittsburgh’s Front Office; other than the much anticipated and expected trade of Starling Marte. Much to the potential disappointment of Pirates Fans, this opinion remains pretty much the same for the upcoming months. Sure there will be decisions made concerning arbitration and Rule 5 elligible players, however, I am honestly not expecting anything of great consequence to happen beyond this; mostly because of the lack of value in their tradable assets, but also because of the words of General Manager Ben Cherington himself.

In recent interviews and conversations with members of the Pittsburgh Sports Media, Cherington has talked about the need for Anthony Alford to play consistently in centerfield, Cole Tucker possibly playing more at shortstop, building on Joe Musgrove’s strong finish to the season and the closer position more than likely been addressed internally. Also take into account statements he has made about Gregory Polanco bouncing back in a Pirates Uniform and being “encouraged” by his desire to play in the Dominican Winter League. These maybe minor talking points concerning just a few spots on the roster, but to me it says a lot.

Most times trades, the selling kind, are made by a team because of depth exists at a position or a player is near the end of their team control, whether it be contract or arbitration related. Of course it could occur because of an irresistible offer, but I feel like this is an outlier. On the other hand free agents are usually acquired to make a push, fill a void, add depth, create competition or with the goal of flipping the player down the line. Based on the comments from Cherington he has not alluded to a desire to complete transactions for these reasons and often talks about the possibility of making significant acquisitions or spending when the Pirates are ready to contend, which they clearly are not prepared to do for the next year or so. Nevertheless, as I said before, there will be moves to be made; even if they are considered minor or minimal; including three potential trade pieces and free agents. But before I begin, please temper your expectations for returns, as well as the level of player they will more than likely add. I mean, I didn’t see any of you jump out of your seats with the signing of Michael Perez.

Three Most Likely Trade Pieces

Adam Frazier was seen as a potential trade target for multiple teams during this past off-season, however, nothing ever came to fruition. Once again at the most recent trade deadline, Frazier’s name kept surfacing. In the equivalent of 4 MLB seasons with the Pirates, Frazier has shown himself to be around a league average hitter (.275 AVG and 100 wRC+), with defensive upside (6 DRS IF/OF, 6 OAA 2B 2020 and 11 OAA 2019). As a two time Gold Glove Finalist at second base, Frazier has also shown the ability to play multiple positions around the field, which could entice prospective trade partners.

Colin Moran came out of the gate swinging through the first seven games of the season as he was slashed .333/.385/.875 with 4 home runs in 24 at bats. Then reality sank in as he proceeded to hit .228 over his next 127 at bats. Some of the power stuck around as he hit another 6 homers and 20 total extra base hits, but he saw his once astronomical numbers slip to .247/.325/.472 by the end of the year. Moran is a career .270 hitter, so it is most likely that his average rebounds closer to that number over 162 games. For teams that could be looking at Moran it was nice to seem him have the opportunity to exhibit the ability to adequately hold down the first base position with a -1 OAA because it was evident that he was not a everyday third baseman anymore.

Chad Kuhl began the year by being slowly brought into the fold as a part of a “piggyback”, after having not pitched since June of 2018 and undergoing Tommy John Surgery in September of the same year. After struggling off and on through his first nine appearances he ended the season on a high as he struck out 11 and allowed only one earned run over his last 12 innings of work. For the season he posted 4.27 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, but there are some concerns about his 5.48 FIP. The bigger concern for me the fact that he is down to the final two years of team control, so at this point it is getting close to a contract extension or trade decision.

Free Agent Additions

Michael Hermosillo is a former top prospect within the Los Angeles Angels Farm System. He was ranked 24th in 2019 and as high as 11th in 2018. Throughout his Minor League career he has spent time at all three outfield positions, but projects as a 4th outfielder in the long run. Over the past three years he has only accumulated 101 Major League at bats, including only 8 in the truncated 2020 season, ultimately being designated for assignment off the 60 man player pool in order to make room for a returning pitcher. Hermosillo has shown the ability to provide some power 27 home runs over his last two Minor League seasons. He is not arbitration eligible until 2022 and is scheduled to reach free agency in 2026 at the age of 31.

Andrew Velasquez was acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays back in November of 2014 with high hopes for the 20 year old shortstop. Unfortunately for him he was limited by injuries over the next two seasons; appearing in only 126 games during that time. In 2018 he finally started to breakout by hitting 14 homers in the minors. This earned him a September call up with the Rays, but little else as he was traded to the Cleveland Indians in 2019 for international bonus pool space in the midst of his best season of professional baseball. Between the two organizations Velasquez slashed .300/.352/.502 with 6 home runs. Prior to the 2020 season he was placed on waivers; landing in Baltimore, where he struggled severely. Across 40 games and 63 at bats, he only managed to record a .159 average. On the plus side, throughout his career, the former 7th round draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks has played almost every position on the field aside from catcher. He is also under team control for the next 4 years.

Dereck Rodriguez is the son of catching great Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, who burst into the scene in 2018 with the San Francisco Giants; posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1.132 WHIP in 21 appearances, 19 of them starts. During the next season his performance steadily decreased in efficiency as he saw his ERA balloon to 5.64 and his WHIP top out at 1.455, while 2020 was just a total disaster. A pitcher who relies on command and soft contact, Rodriguez has the potential to return to form if he is put in a situation to succeed as a starter and allowed to play to his strengths. Originally drafted as an outfielder way back in 2011, he didn’t take the mound on a regular basis until 2014. This means more limited innings than other pitchers his age and control of an athletic young man with a known baseball pedigree for at least four years.

Now I know there will probably be some backlash or outrage over the types of players I believe Cherington and the Pirates will more than likely be targeting as free agent additions and/or as signings for minor league contracts with invitations to spring training, but it is just the reality of the situation. It’s not like many had heard of Guillermo Heredia, JT Riddle and Luke Maile before they signed with Pittsburgh; and this year could be very similar as the low risk/potential high reward signings continue to dominate the off-season and in-season transactions until it is finally time to compete again.

Are the Pittsburgh Pirates Still a Bad Defensive Club?

This is a more difficult question than it seems. First, it only takes a weak spot or two to cast a shadow on an entire club and the Bucs certainly have a few of those. It matters where they are placed as well, for instance, you can work around a poor defender at first base (thank god right?) but if you have a bad defender at short stop, chances are you have a bad rating as a club.

Now that’s a general answer, the Pirates biggest problem is they have question marks in some areas and in some key spots where players are locked in they’re lacking defensively.

The Pirates had 2 Gold Glove finalists this year as Adam Frazier and Jacob Stallings both finished 2nd at Catcher and Second Base, but Adam played a decent amount of outfield toward the end of the season. If Adam isn’t a lock to play second then you have to assume its because the Pirates still believe Erik Gonzalez is still a starter and Newman is the second baseman. Another way they could go is to give up on turning Cole Tucker into a Center Fielder and move him back to Short. Either way, they take Frazier out of a spot he has finished near the top of the league two straight seasons defensively. Of course he could also entirely be moved off the club but the result would largely be the same.

If defense is as important to Ben Cherington as he has stated, and shown in his free agent signings last year, why the propensity to play people out of position?

Now, bats matter too. For instance, Josh Bell is clearly never going to be a defensive stalwart but you also can’t have him on your team if you aren’t going to have him hit, so they’ll take a defensive hit, in order to chance that he will, well, hit.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is, on the other hand, the best of both worlds. He hits, and he fields, and playing a full season at the hot corner automatically makes him an upgrade at the position. Bryan Reynolds is a plus defender at either corner and average in center, last season he clearly wasn’t the plan out there but trades, cuts, and injury led to Bryan being the best option left standing by the end. Next season if there are no deals or signings, Anthony Alford, Cole Tucker, and Bryan Reynolds will again be options to patrol spacious center field at PNC, but again, what if you want Frazier out there?

Polanco will get handed a roster spot, his payroll figure and lack of out clauses dictate that, but he isn’t guaranteed a starting spot. I say that while 100% assuming he will indeed start in Right Field on most nights, at least to start the season. There is one quote hanging out there from Ben Cherington that would lead one to believe the club would be comfortable with the highest paid player on the team becoming a bench piece, but I’ll have to see it to believe it. Outfield options we started to list up there can and will be augmented by Jared Oliva and possibly even O’neil Cruz although I have the same questions about him playing out there as I did when they decided to toss Tucker in Center without any training.

The best way I can clarify the question about the defense is really this, they have pieces to put together that would make up a pretty solid defense, but some of the biggest upside batters would have to sit.

For instance, if I wanted to focus on defensive improvement alone My lineup would look like this; LF-Reynolds, CF-Alford, RF-Oliva, 3B-Hayes, SS-Tucker, 2B-Frazier, 1B-Moran, C-Stallings. Now that ignores the fact that Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco, Erik Gonzalez and Kevin Newman end up on my bench, but purely from a defensive standpoint the team would improve. If you want to flip Cruz in for Tucker, fine, I don’t believe Cruz to be quite as good as Tucker there but it’s closer than not.

That’s not a lineup that even on their best day is going to put the fear into any pitchers and ultimately they’ll have to strike a balance. Looking at all the pieces here or potentially here, it’s clear there will be some very viable position battles if Cherington doesn’t make some moves.

The bottom line, no, the Pirates are very much so still a poor defensive club, they have parts and pieces that could remedy that, but the offense can’t afford the changes.

It’s Voting Season in MLB Too! How Did Ke’Bryan Hayes Not Make the ROY Finalists?

One reason, and it’s incredibly simple, in a year when every player dealt with short sample size, his was shorter still. You can say he showed enough in that month to warrant winning but right or wrong that’s the reason.

In only 85 official at bats Hayes had 32 hits, five of which were homeruns and that translates to a .376 batting average. His OPS of 1.124 is scary good, and none of this talks to the astronomical difference he made in the field.

He certainly earned being in the conversation, and I thought for sure he’d end up in the finalists but instead it shook out like this, NL finalists: Alec Bohm (PHI), Jake Cronenworth (SD), Devin Williams (MIL), worthy candidates all, but still disappointing.

Here’s the bright shiny upside, Hayes will still be a rookie in 2021. He has to head into the season as one of the favorites to take the award but as a Pirates fan, I’m hoping he has some internal competition in the form of O’neil Cruz.

At the end of the day, none of this will really matter. Hayes won’t play differently next season based on being snubbed, if anything it actually gives him a better shot at it in 2021. Alec Bohm is hard to argue against after all and having someone win it twice would at least be really weird so whomever wins it in 2020 will almost surely be left out next year.

Part of me was hoping they’d avoid individual awards in 2020 for this very reason. For instance, let’s say Josh Bell had that monster month in 2020 rather than 2019, is he MVP? He could be, but that certainly doesn’t tell the story of his entire season does it. Oh, we’d celebrate it and we’d certainly feel like he earned it, but there’s something to be said for how a player fares through the rigors of an entire season. Same goes for a rookie, they come up and sometimes everything clicks. There is an overall feel that this guy is going to be an All-Star for seasons to come and then the league pushes back. I’m not predicting a downturn for Hayes, but .376 is a bit high to expect for anyone over the course of an entire campaign don’t you think?

If anything, I wish Hayes had not been one of the unlucky few Pirates to contract COVID-19 or he might very well have played a larger percentage of games and had a better argument.

All that said, 2021 could be very special for Ke’Bryan Hayes and here’s hoping its not even a discussion.

Nick Burdi Undergoes Second Tommy John Procedure – Out for 2021

Stories like that which Nick Burdi is in the middle of writing happen in baseball all the time, sure most of them probably don’t have the ability to throw a baseball over 100MPH but injuries derail careers before they get started more often than any of us really know.

On Sunday news broke from Adam Berry that Nick Burdi had been re-evaluated and it had been determined that he would need to undergo a second Tommy John procedure.

For this talented young man, that’s two TJ’s and TOS in his short career, and how it shakes out for him moving forward is unknown. Coming back from two procedures like this is a very lightly travelled path and when you pile on the TOS he faces extremely long odds, but considering the odds he’s already overcome I can’t rule out that he’ll fight his way through this too.

Selfishly, we can look at what this does to the Pirates bullpen, and whether it’s what’s most important right now or not, it’s still part of the story. This takes Blake Cederlind out of the “probably” category and into the “damn near lock” category to make the team, and potentially opens a door for Nick Mears to impress in Spring Training.

For Burdi this must be a heartbreaking setback. First the Pirates DFA’d Burdi off the 40-man and announced they expected him to miss 16 to 18 months, far longer than most recovery timeline’s tend to be for TJ. Probably due to his lengthy history of injury more so than a commentary on the severity.

In his time here in Pittsburgh he has only managed to pitch 12.1 innings and never fulfilled his Rule 5 status, and I’ll be honest, it’s unclear to me if this means they have to offer him back to the Twins or he just get’s to stay with the Pirates organization but no matter how you look at it, so ends the longest Rule 5 period I’ve ever witnessed.

Talent doesn’t always guarantee success, a lesson many players learn without ever showing what they can do in MLB, even if only a little over 12 innings. Think of the impression he made in that time though. Now imagine this happens to a second round pick who never makes it past Altoona, do you even hear about it? Hell, do I?

As much as we’ve learned about pitching mechanics and their effect on the human body, we may never know why some guys succumb to the rigors of pitching and others can seemingly jump up from a cold bench and hit 95 without a twinge.

Many will call Burdi fragile, and physically they might be correct, but the mental strength it takes to just keep coming back makes him one of the strongest people I’ve ever covered. It also might not be smart to continue. There came a point with Francisco Cervelli where I wanted the Pirates to consider saving him from himself as concussions piled up, while arm injury doesn’t have the same cumulative, later in life effect, at some point enough is enough.

What more can you say at the end of the day but get well kid? Maybe just telling him on social media he’s made of glass is something we could find a way to avoid. Nick Burdi may never throw another MLB pitch for the Pirates, he may never throw another for anyone, but man he sure was impressive for those 12 innings. If he comes back after all of this, I look forward to holding my breath with everyone else every time he pitches, both because he’ll probably impress and because until he gets through a stretch of time, we’ll never know when the shoe is about to drop.

Archer Missed his Target in Pittsburgh

All the Pittsburgh stars greeted him with open arms on social media. A limo picked him up from the airport and he was plopped in front of the microphone to face a gaggle of media. He dutifully answered each and talked about his excitement being the leader of this pitching staff.

It obviously didn’t work out.

We saw him pitch his first game and when he loaded the bases with nobody out, fall back on his strikeout stuff to escape the situation. Only lasting 5 innings, but most of us chalked it up to nerves in his debut or commended him for the bulldog effort. The other starters stood in the dugout posing like archers as he struck out batters.

We didn’t know his debut was foreshadowing of his entire tenure as a Pirate.

Chris Archer never really found it here. On top of already struggling to adjust to things physically changing with him and his game, he was dealing with a new pitching philosophy being shoved down his throat. At some point he started to push back on the pitch to contact stuff but it didn’t come until he tried to be a good soldier for as long as he could stomach and by then, much of Pittsburgh had seen enough.

Still we were all prepared to give him another chance, and so was the new GM, but injury took the opportunity away from Archer and the writing for what just took place was on the wall.

Chris is well known league wide for being one of the nicest guys there is and is involved in the community like few manage to be. After spending fewer than 4 months in Pittsburgh he jumped into a mercy trip to Puerto Rico with Francisco Cervelli because helping people was a huge part of what made Archer happy.

His time in Pittsburgh was marred by poor coaching, poor performance and injury, piled on top of a bonfire that was burning under the surface even before the trade was completed. When the trade was made, Many saw it as the Pirates finally trying, for once we got the star trade chip. For once Neal wasn’t overvaluing his prospects. And we got him for 3 more years!

Soon the excitement of seeing him come to Pittsburgh was replaced by anger about how he performed and direct comparisons to how the players moved for him performed. It became something that he’d never live up to under this contract, in this town.

I could list off all his stats and start arguing why this was the exact right move for the Pirates, but I feel no need to kick a truly nice man on his way out of town. The pressure of living up to the name Chris Archer here just wasn’t going to happen.

I truly hope Chris is healthy and performs the way he thinks he can at his next stop but man, it was imminently clear it wasn’t going to happen here. Today at 5 was the deadline for deciding on this and no I won’t rule out the club trying to find a way to get him to take less and stay, but I truly think through little fault of his own he is a constant reminder of failure and a really bad trade. In other words, it might be best for both parties to just let this go.

I suggest we all put this behind us and wish Chris Archer luck in his future endeavors.

The MLB Free Agent Market, and Ways the Pirates Could Play It

Did you ever fully expect something to happen, then as you watch it unfold you somehow still sit there with your jaw open wondering what’s going on? That’s me right now watching teams all over MLB start the process of trimming the fat. And fat probably isn’t the best word, because these aren’t garbage players being dropped, these are expensive players and it’s changing the landscape of MLB’s free agent crop before our very eyes.

The funny thing is, you couldn’t pick a worse year to be a free agent, for anybody, even Trevor Bauer, this season’s top free agent, at least right now. Oh, he’ll still get paid, and probably very well, but he isn’t going to come close to what Gerrit Cole got last year. I don’t think he’d have reached that territory anyway but with all the crying poor MLB is doing right now, who is going to step up and offer someone 250 Million dollars over ten years?

Here are the factors we all know about. First we have the COVID situation, and your personal feeling on lockdowns and fans in the stands means very little. We simply don’t know how baseball or any sport is going to handle it moving forward, let alone how fans will feel about packing a stadium again. For instance, I personally would go right now, but my wife for instance would have to not go back to work for two weeks if I did. The question is cloudy at best and nothing frightens executives more than uncertainty. It’s the same reason you always see the stock market drop prior to an election, it doesn’t matter who they think is going to win as much as not knowing who is going to win.

Next you have the already damning financial losses experienced from 2020. I can’t tell you how much faith to put in the numbers Rob Manfred put forward. They claim to have collectively taken on 8.3 Billion in debt and will post between 2.8 and 3.0 Billion dollars in operational losses. They’ve even been starting to murmur about “economic systemic changes” which is a flowery way to say salary cap. (floor comes too, so leave it out of your comment) Even if this doesn’t lead to big time changes like that, the losses are probably very real, and more importantly, very real to the teams that pack their house all the time and by the way, tend to pay the bills for the league.

I’m sure there are other factors that will affect this free agent crop but the last one I’m going to touch on is this, the new CBA. It expires after this season and if you watched the restart negotiations earlier this year it’s easy to see how contentious they could be. Toss onto this bonfire what is going to completely resemble collusion by owners to keep salaries down and you’ve got all the makings for a league that could be headed for a lengthy work stoppage.

You take all the factors there and it starts to resemble the Day After Tomorrow scenario of a perfect storm. How each team handles it will very much so depend on where they are and what they could do with it.

For instance, the Cardinals have opened most recent seasons with a payroll around 160 Million, right now they sit right above 100 million and might plan to sit right there. Don’t get me wrong, as a Pirates fan, I’m still left envious but think bigger. Think of the potential that 60 Million in spending power comes out of the collective pie. They aren’t alone, almost every team has stated that decreasing payroll even if only marginally makes sense if not the outright goal.

Supply and demand are two linchpins in the sales world and when you think of free agents as a commodity, it’s easy to see why more than ever flooding the market in a time when teams have less money to spend than any in recent history could lead to some incredible deals.

This is where the Pirates could step in.

Before I get too deep, the Pirates have already joined the chorus singing the song of needing to cut payroll a bit. But the Pirates already have mechanisms to get that done, by letting Keone Kela walk along with Dereck Holland and potentially passing on the option for Chris Archer the Bucs stand to save 16 million from an already league low payroll. Sure they have a ton of arbitration eligible players and that will eat into those savings but suffice to say, the payroll is going to trend down if they simply do nothing but exercise the buy out on Archer.

I’m thinking some free agents are going to go starved for offers and even if they get them, they could be short to at least eliminate some of the variables. The Pirates usually dumpster dive on the market, bringing in players like Evans, Riddle, and the like, but this year, they could possibly woo a more impactful player by simply offering years.

I’m not advocating this signing but lets use Masahiro Tanaka as an example. Here’s a guy who made 23 Million last season and is 32 years old. He’s clearly lost some zip on his fastball but is still fairly effective. In a typical year you could expect him to probably take a bit of a pay cut, maybe in the 16-18 range for a season or two. This season I don’t think he’ll touch even that. What if you offered him 14AAV for 4 or 5 seasons?

How about a reliever, Jeremy Jeffress is just coming off making 850K and many prognosticators have him getting a contract in excess of 7 Million. I don’t see it. What if a team like the Pirates swooped in with their incredibly low payroll and offered 5 AAV for 4 years? This would still most likely allow them to lower payroll but they get a real piece and he gets paid close to what will be in the market for a few years.

The Pirates are not in an enviable position, they were the worst team in baseball last year and if the players who could make a difference play to their 2020 level again, that won’t change. But they’re building under the surface and buying a quality player, relatively on the cheap, on a deal that takes them into their projected window might be a really smart play.

Guys who might not even take the meeting in a normal off season may be a bit more willing to listen right now and the Pirates could potentially buy themselves a cornerstone rather than waiting for the development and drafting changes to take hold.

George Springer made a little over 21 Million in 2020 (all these numbers are of course pro-rated) and again, many project him to get upwards of 24 AAV. He has a bit of an injury history, and of course the cheating stuff will follow him a bit. But if the market is as slow as I think it might be, Springer might have to settle for 18-20 Million. Now it might be smart for him to take a one year deal and bet on himself and the overall health of the game to improve as well but players are worried about a work stoppage too. At 31 years old, a five year deal would fit perfectly into the Pirates plan and give them a star they can plug right into the heart of the order. I’d have to imagine people suddenly start throwing Bell strikes if Springer is batting behind him.

Even if it made the payroll increase, and it most certainly would, an opportunity to even have him entertain a conversation with Pittsburgh may not come up again. By the time a deal like this would expire he’s 36 and if you want him for another year or two the spend won’t be nearly as bad, or you move him for prospects to keep the train rolling.

I can’t say I expect the Pirates to pursue this train of thought, but it could kill multiple birds with one stone. First, it makes the team better, now and later. Second, it sends a signal to the fans and for that matter the league that the Pirates are open for business and things are changing here. Finally, it gives them something they simply don’t have, a cornerstone offensive talent that isn’t actively being developed.

I don’t see many fans disagreeing with this, but I do definitely understand thinking it won’t happen. Part of me didn’t want to write this piece for that very reason, I sincerely doubt it will happen. But this off season is so unique, it would be a shame to let it slip by without at least considering all possible angles, all paths available to them.

Hell, it would almost make them look smart for carrying such a pitiful payroll last season.

What do you think? Should the Pirates try to jumpstart the rebuild or focus on doing everything internally? And keep in mind, once this perfect storm passes, it could possibly never happen again.

Through The Prospect Porthole: A Trio Of Young Catchers

About a week ago I wrote a column about the future of Jacob Stallings at the catcher position, which brought up the topic of three specific young catchers in the Pirates Farm System that I currently have my eye on; none of whom are ranked in the top prospects on any site at the present time. It is understandable that fans and media members alike to look no further than these lists to find the next player up in line at almost every position. However, not all contributors at the Major League level find themselves on these lists before they make their debuts. Yes they can be used as predictors of possible future success; it just can’t be the only way to forecast a prospects ability to contribute.

For me this is especially true when it comes to catchers; not only because of what seems to be a more limited player pool, but also due to facts that many players don’t stick at this position as they rise through the Minor Leagues or become physically unable to handle the grueling duties for the duration of their entire Major League careers. Neil Walker was drafted as a catcher and so was Kyle Schwarber. Joe Mauer eventually moved to first base, BJ Surhoff found his way out to left field and Mickey Tettleton jumped all over the place. These aren’t the exceptions and they aren’t the rules, just something to considering a team’s depth at the position.

As far as the Pirates go, they invited seven young catchers to the recent Instructional League; including my three. For those of you that are unfamiliar with their past play at the professional and amateur levels I thought I might do a little bit more of a breakdown as to how they got here and where they could go, as their futures have yet to be defined.

Geovanny Planchart

Planchart was signed on March 18, 2019 from Peurto La Cruz, Venezuela at the age of 17 and almost immediately was put into action as one of the primary catching options for the Pirates2 in the Dominican Summer League. Although his power left something to be desired, the approach he took at the plate was advanced for a young man his age.

In 32 games and 106 at bats Planchart slashed .368/.433/.406, while only striking out 9 times and walking 12. He also impressed behind the plate by throwing out 42% of the runners who tried to swipe a base. As the 2020 season approached the Gulf Coast League seemed to be his most likely landing spot, however, he never got the chance; and like many others had to wait and see.

For Planchart this was his second go around at Fall instructs, while preparing to show what he can do in stateside come 2021. This opportunity could likely come in the GCL as originally planned or in Greensboro as a Grasshopper. No matter his landing spot I am expecting much of the same from Planchart, with hopefully a little more muscle and a little more pop in his bat.

Kyle Wilkie

Wilkie was selected by the Pirates in the 12th Round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft from Clemson University, home of the Tigers. During his time in the ACC, the Georgia native quickly grew to be one of the best hitters on the team. As Clemson’s everyday catcher in 2018 and 2019, Wilkie ended his career as a. 307 hitter with a .431 slugging percentage and .400 on-base percentage. As a senior he also launched 6 homers and accounted for a total of 20 extra base hits.

When his professional career began as a West Virginia Black Bear, Wilkie didn’t get off to the best start offensively. In 185 at bats he was only able to manage a .243 Average without a single home runs. He did however lead all catchers on the team with a .992 Fielding Percentage.

Honestly the struggles at Short Season A ball do not concern me that much as he had just finished up a full college season with a few playoff games. Unfortunately for now this is all we are left with as he looks toward the 2021 season, most likely in a Marauders uniform.

Joe Jimenez

As the 2020 June Amateur Draft came to a close, Chapman University Catcher, Joe Jimenez, was still waiting for his call. With the draft being only five rounds, it was a tough time to be a college senior in an environment of unknowns. Fortunately for Jimenez the invitation to become a part of the Pirates organization was on its way. Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent less than a month after the drafts conclusion, he kept his training regiment going by catching bullpen sessions with fellow Chapman Baseball Alum and Pirates 3rd Round Draft Pick, Nick Garcia. As members of the 2019 team they helped lead the Panthers to a Division III National Championship, both earning All Tournament Team honors.

In his final 61 games as a Chapman Panther, Jimenez batted .325 with 4 homers, 2 of which came in a truncated senior season across only 12 games. It is also import to note that over his final 2 seasons he walked more than he struck out by a count of 28 to 23, while adding stolen bases to his repertoire.

Jimenez did experience a down year his sophomore season which was a complete anomaly if you look at his body of work. For the season he slashed .195/.317/.299 and struck out 19 times in only 87 at bats, which is more than he did in his 159 at bats the following year. This sharp decline was due to multiple swing changes that never really came together. To his credit he was able to work through it and bounced back as a junior and senior.

Due to this demonstration of hard work and perseverance on the field, his dedication off it as a member of the California Warriors and his positive outlook on the future, we are lucky as Pirates Fans to have him as a part of the organization; now and moving forward. It is my hope that he will be able to pick up where he left off at the end of his college career as a member of either the Grasshoppers or the Marauders in 2021.

I am not trying to claim that there is organizational depth at the catching position or that they don’t need to add more because the answer is already here. I just want everyone to realize that not all top prospects become Major Leaguers and not all Major Leaguers are former top prospects. And there may be some hidden gems already with the Pirates, who are waiting to break out.

Go to Bucs In The Basement to listen to a more in depth interview with UDFA Catcher and Pirates Prospect Joe Jimenez.

Through The Prospect Porthole: A JUCO Bandit

A couple of weeks ago I had the opportunity to sit down with the Pirates Fifth Round Pick from the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft, Logan Hoffman, on a lazy Sunday afternoon. As I have become more familiar with the decisions that players make concerning following the Junior College path to the majors, it has continued to fascinate me because this route is very often overlooked by many. For Hofmann the decision was made based on having two offers out of high school, one Division II school and the other at the JUCO level; eventually setting his sights on Colby Community College in rural Kansas.

As a young man growing up in the small town of Muenster, Saskatchewan, Canada the scouting and recruiting outreach for colleges in America is very limited and extremely competitive, so he would have to work even harder to set himself a part from the pack. According to Hofmann he felt like he almost blew this opportunity when Colby’s head coach came to see him throw at a fall tournament his senior year on a cold day in Alberta, when he unfortunately didn’t have his best stuff going. However, in the end they ultimately liked what they saw and were able to bring Hofmann to the NJCAA as a Trojan to continue his baseball journey.

In his Freshman year Hofmann got straight to work as he pitched 85.2 innings, starting 14 games and appearing in 18. During this time he posted a 4.11 ERA, struck out 102 batters, recorded 3 saves and threw 4 complete games. When he returned for the start of Sophomore season big league clubs began to take notice; tracking his progress and keeping in contact throughout the year. Looking back on his numbers he surely didn’t disappoint those that did as he lowered his ERA to 3.11, increased his K/9 from 10.72 to 12.85 and threw 8 complete games across 89.2 innings and 15 starts.

As the 2019 draft approached the St. Louis Cardinals invited him to throw a bullpen session at Busch Stadium and went on select him as their 35th round pick. It was at this point that Hofmann had a difficult choice to make, and one that he did not take lightly as he waited until almost the last possible day before deciding to bet on himself.

Hofmann went on to pitch that same summer in the Cape Cod Baseball League, where he struck out 22 batters in 16 innings with a 1.125 WHIP before returning to school; this time at Northwestern State University of Louisiana. Sadly, we all know now that his time there was cut extremely short, but he definitely made the most of it. In 28 innings over 4 starts he did not allow a single earned run and struck out 38 batters in the process. But, as with every other hopeful across the country a Five Round Draft was waiting, which had to be stressful time for all involved.

In the meantime Hofmann returned home, hoping he had done enough to get the call. In the 5th Round, with the 138th overall pick, General Manager Ben Cherington put all doubts to rest. Any other year Hofmann would have been swept into PNC, taken to Primanti Brothers and given a ride on the Incline, but we all know this year has been far from normal. Instead he sat down on his back porch and put pen to paper, becoming one of the newest members of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. If you ask him, he couldn’t imagine it any other way.

So, what does the future hold for the 5’10” 195 lb right hander? Well, after instructs are over he will return to school for some classes and then home for the holidays; all the while working toward the first season of his professional career. Where he will land to begin the 2021 season is anyone’s guess. The changes coming to Minor League Baseball have yet to be finalized, so it may be tougher to straighten out for the first couple of years. If forced to do so I would most likely say that Hofmann will be bringing his 91-94 mph fastball, often paired with a wipeout 75-77mph curveball, to either Greensboro or Bradenton with a trip to Altoona on the horizon.

Go to Bucs In The Basement to listen to a more in-depth interview with Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Prospect Logan Hofmann.

My Step-by-Step for the Pirates Next Step

You know what they say about opinions right? Well, its absolutely true, but after you spend so much time critiquing and or commenting on the actions of a franchise, there comes a time when you have to put your path down on paper, or, virtual paper as the case may be.

Today is that day for me. Today I’m going to be outlining the steps I’d take to keep the ball rolling and position the Pirates to reach the next phase.

We should start with a basic map, after all it does little good to tell someone how to find the fish market in San Francisco if you haven’t first explained how to get to the Bay Area. The way I see it, the rebuild process can be broken into multiple zones.

The Bottom Rung Zone

This one doubles as a “You Are Here” tag on our map because this is ultimately where the Pirates find themselves. The bottom rung is typically after you’ve moved as much of your moveable talent as possible in an effort to acquire prospects and to bottom out the payroll so that you may spend later. For the time being we’ll ignore that we can’t trust spending later will happen and that they can and should still make moves to get those prospects. Even if it isn’t a perfect fit, they come closest to this zone.

The Youth Movement Zone

You could argue the Pirates are here already, and you might be right. I happen to think they have just a bit more veteran presence to move before this totally takes hold and some of my suggested moves will take the team into this zone by the time they’re completed. While others might not look like that’s the case. You’ll see with my signings I’m more or less trying to build a bit of a bridge (I know this gives you flashbacks) to the next pool of talent.

The Crack in the Window Zone

Remember 2011-2012? Yeah, like that. Things starting to take shape, stars emerging, youth stepping in to bigger roles, extensions being worked out, big time first round picks entering the stage. Sometimes this is defined as ‘arriving early’ but it’s really just starting to see the signs that things are improving. This is the zone my plan will resemble but it’s very much so a false window, again, it’s a bridge. You can’t be married to any of my signings, if any are here for the real window it would be at least a slight shock.

The Wide Open Window Zone

You go into the season expecting to win, rather than being pleasantly surprised and the impending doom of losing players that helped make it happen aren’t there quite yet. It’s what every rebuild shoots for and in no way does it guarantee a championship but it sure as hell means you are in the conversation.

After these zones you tend to decide if you can at all continue to live in the wide open window zone but you have to have been developing all along the way and pull the trigger on moves that can sometimes feel uncomfortable. It’s a dance few can pull off and outside a few top notch organizations can resemble a white guy dancing at a night club. That’s exactly why I recommend signing a couple players to allow the talent to evolve a bit more.

All that being said let’s move into the plan.

The Cuts

I start here because it comes up early in December and to make the type of moves I want to pull off I need to make decisions here. There are only a few worth mentioning as the rest are also rans really, I’d move on from Trevor Williams and Dovydas Neverauskas. Dovydas is a no brainer as he just clearly can’t repeat his performance from AAA. Some guys can’t bring it on an MLB mound and no matter how attractive that 95+ fastball can be, he’s never been consistent enough to spend another minute on him. Trevor is a little tougher but when I make up my roster I have to ask myself, is he a better option than at least 6 in my organization? If that answer is yes, ok you keep him and hope he shows something. If no, which for me is the case, you cut ties so as to not block the youth movement.

For me this is as simple as this. Would you start Trevor Williams over any of the following; Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, JT Brubaker. That leaves room for Taillon to get hurt, or Joe to get moved and still leaves Trevor on the outside looking in for me. Unless the Pirates want to pay 3.5 Million for a long man in the bullpen, I suggest Trevor’s time has come. If I thought someone would trade for him I’d recommend picking up the tender sheet but I just described how I don’t see him cracking the starting rotation for the last in almost everything pitching staff of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

I’ve gotten this far and not even mentioned buying out Chris Archer for 250K. We can overthink this but I just don’t see this as something I’d see enough upside in taking the opposite approach with. Best case scenario he’s a number one pitcher on a team not ready to really get into the race and I don’t see it as worthwhile cost for a prospect or comp pick.

The Promotions

Identify who is ready to take the next step. This is easy because there aren’t many if we’re honest. O’neil Cruz should he avoid any legal trouble, and we have little reason to believe he won’t, Jared Oliva and Blake Cederlind. That’s one bullpen arm and a middle infielder who might be able to play the outfield as well as a pure outfielder.

Specifically we’re talking here about players who could be ready to make the jump at the beginning of the season, by the end we could be looking at Bolton too. If it seems like I’ve forgotten all about Will Craig, well I just think they have too many pieces they need to move to make room. And I see this getting pushed back another year, plus I just don’t think he’s all that impressive yet.

Trade Bait

The Pirates have options and I don’t think they have to burn this to the ground. As I wrote a few days ago the club is already young, tearing down to the studs is usually done to get to where they are right now.

I’d trade Adam Frazier. I like Adam’s game and love the position flexibility but he doesn’t have an outfielder’s arm. He can go get it but playing left field in Pittsburgh is almost like center in other ball parks. I choose Adam because I choose to keep Kevin Newman and want to make room for O’neil Cruz. He plays two positions that need freed up if Cruz is going to crack the lineup. I think there will be takers for the back to back gold glove finalist and with every MLB club looking to save money, Frazier’s low payroll figure will make him affordable, at least more so than a similar player in the free agent field.

I don’t think there is value for Josh Bell right now, at least not enough to pry him away from the Pirates before the season starts. The two most attractive things about Josh right now are his raw power and his control. The control gets smaller every passing game but the Bucs desperately need Bell to figure it out if they want to get anywhere close to what makes moving him make sense. He is a deadline deal if anything.

I’d try to move Colin Moran, like him or not, Colin showed a pace that would put him near 30 homeruns this season and he, unlike Bell, presents more potential partners as he can play first base at a higher level. He’s not Al Oliver over there but he eclipses Bell in the field by a healthy margin.

I hold onto Joe Musgrove for right now, hear me out. Those two games at the end of 2020 alone aren’t enough but he has shown me enough to think he’ll be an effective starter in this league. Keep in mind, effective doesn’t mean I think he’s a perennial All-Star, it means I think he can hold down a slot in the rotation and at times shine. He and Jameson Taillon are the best bets for veteran pitchers who this team should consider extending, and I use this season to decide which. If someone will overpay for Joe, do it, but I don’t see it. The Bucs have some young pitchers in the system but if Mitch Keller is your elder statesman come window time, I worry about the makeup of the roster.

Signings

This is what I’d do to jumpstart the team a bit and it starts in the bullpen. Blake Treinen or Liam Hendricks. This is not the Pirates way mind you, they’ve almost always relied on young guys or resurrection projects but a legit top notch reliever will cost far less than a starter and potentially effect more games than one too. This will put less pressure on the rotation to deliver game in and out and improve the overall landscape of the pitching staff. This also turns into someone that can be flipped in a year or two for more prospects so it’s not a waste. Part of the Pirates development problem on the mound has been the very real necessity to bring up kids who aren’t quite ready, signing at least one bullpen arm helps mitigate that a bit.

I’d go after Joc Pederson. I don’t think he’ll struggle to find a job but that .190 average in 2020 and the Dodgers choice to not use him much might just keep him under the radar a bit. Joc could have something in Pittsburgh he hasn’t had in LA, a chance to play more and a place of prominence in the lineup. Yes, I know he doesn’t hit lefties, that gives them room to continue to work in youngsters. This gives the Pirates a bit more pop which they sorely need. More than anything, he is a drop in replacement for Polanco. You could easily argue they’re the same player, but Joc has put it all together more than once and I’m a firm believer in getting a champion to help change the culture on this ballclub.

In Closing

I’m not trying to force this team to arrive in 2021, I’m trying to show steps in the right direction. I also don’t expect them to do this, the club has already stated publicly they expect the payroll to actually creep down further. This is probably due to buying out Archer and after all the arbitration signings they’d probably come out a bit lower. To me though, I’m not looking for a false window, that timeline doesn’t change here, but I see no reason to not fill holes that exist and can’t be filled better internally. These are essentially future trade chips, think of them as a down payment that buys you time to get your pipeline in order. Stalling the need to force players up is essential when most of the top end talent is entering their first or second season in the organization.

Turning a franchise around isn’t easy, but despite having zero faith in ownership Cherington could get this done. I believe by spending a very moderate amount of money right now as I’ve suggested, and let’s be clear, we’re talking about no more than an 17-18 million dollar per year spend, would help provide the team some swagger and a better overall environment for growth and evaluation. The Bench gets stronger too which becomes much more important in a no DH league.

In short, go get a real bullpen arm with a track record (the names I put forward are irrelevant), and take a veteran outfielder off the board if you can. These two moves alone change the picture entirely.

The alternative is hope, I propose the Pirates give hope a hand up.