Where Could Josh Bell Land if the Pirates Want to Deal Him?

Before we get into this too deep, there is a belief that Josh Bell is a better DH option than First Baseman, the evidence is pretty clear if you watch him play everyday but most GMs won’t have that intimacy. They’ll know he has made errors and nobody will confuse him with Anthony Rizzo over there, but if a GM believes in the bat, that’s what will matter most.

I say this because it’s so easy to lock out the National League should they shun the DH as a place for Josh to land, but plenty of clubs might be open to an affordable potential offensive upgrade at the position while knowingly sacrificing the defensive side of the game.

Now, if you want to argue he isn’t an offensive upgrade, I’ll hear that, cause he certainly hasn’t shown the consistency you’d expect from a ‘star’. If you’re trying to move him, you have to hope, and help convince, that the potential is well worth the risk, and at the same time explain why you couldn’t unlock it. Cherington could get around that question pretty easily by simply saying he won’t be here when the club is competitive. True or not he can simply talk to what he inherited versus what his vision is. Most people will see through it but they’ll also know the Pirates aren’t likely to pay what he would command so it would remain plausible.

Another thing we have to look at is who else is available, or could be available. The position competition is just as important as the player himself. Keep in mind, shedding salary is going to be a common theme this year, even for some of the big guys.

The free agent market figures to be soft for first basemen, I fully expect the Indians to pick up the option on Carlos Santana and the Cubs to do the same for Anthony Rizzo, that leaves the next tier. Mitch Moreland has a club option but San Diego I believe will let him walk. Jake Lamb figures to be on the market and Ryan Zimmerman might just retire should the Nationals not offer him a year.

Potential trade pieces are obviously subjective. I look at who is approaching the final year of their deal and balance that with who is likely to be moved. I have to believe Atlanta will find a way to keep Freeman for instance, but the young Giants might want to shop veteran Brandon Belt. Colorado could want to see what they can get for Daniel Murphy and his position flexibility could help. Travis Shaw could be an option for Toronto (especially if they find a replacement).

OK, so that’s the competition. Mitch Moreland, Jake Lamb, Brandon Belt, Daniel Murphy and Travis Shaw. I think that’s a reasonable list at this point and of course we must leave room for teams to move guys with more control, obviously since we’re discussing the Pirates doing exactly that.

So what type of team would want Josh Bell? Are we talking about a competitor, a rebuilding team, someone who wants a placeholder? This is so tough, a competitor likely isn’t looking for a project, and rest assured, that’s what Josh Bell is. A rebuilding team could look at Josh as young enough to be part of it and be attracted to the two years of control, but they might be concerned they can afford to retain him should he take off. The league is littered with journeymen who have been little more than placeholders, Matt Joyce, Jed Gyorko, Travis Shaw, are all good examples. Does Josh fit into that category? Well, maybe.

The point here is in order to try to find a home for Mr. Bell, we must first understand what we’re selling, and who the customer base is. It’s easy to say for instance the Yankees in exchange for their version of Josh, Clint Frazier. But why would the Yankees want to make that move? They’re in the business of winning right now, will they believe Bell get’s that done? In that lineup he’s a 7 or 8 hitter and I’d have to imagine they would pay as such.

Now let’s talk to who I see out there as potential landing spots.

The Philadelphia Phillies

Yes, I know, they have Rhys Hoskins, but the Phillies fall into that bridge player category. Rhys missed part of 2020 and underwent Tommy John surgery, not commonly talked about for a non-pitcher but he could very well miss a large chunk of the 2021 campaign. Josh Bell could slot right in and stem the tide. A team that sprung for Bryce Harper is mentally always going to be in win now mode and losing Hoskins and potentially J.T. Realmuto in the same off season won’t sit well with a team struggling to keep up with the talent rich Braves. They have some nice prospects and if they manage to retain Realmuto the Bucs could ask about Rafael Marchan a switch hitting catcher who has already made his MLB debut but is listed by MLB as their number 7 prospect. In the lower levels they have some nice pitching options they might be willing to part with.

The Washington Nationals

The Nationals still have the pitching to make them feel part of the contention conversation, but the bats need help. Zimmerman has done well to play wherever they’ve put him but nobody is providing any kind of protection for Juan Soto in that lineup. Erik Thames factors in as well but he could play outfield as well and make a spot for the acquisition. Their system is pitching heavy at the top as all of their top ten consist of hurlers, most of which are pretty far away. This could fit in well with what Cherington has shown us is attractive to him.

The San Francisco Giants

The Giants don’t build quite like anyone else. They don’t have fire sales, they aren’t afraid to spend and while they have a bad stretch here and there they never reach the depths of awful most of the league does as they change their identity. The Giants still have Brandon Belt and as I mentioned earlier could be willing to shop him, but power plays in San Fran and McCovey Cove has Josh Bell’s name all over it. I’d consider this a stretch but they have prospects the Pirates should be very interested in. Joey Bart isn’t going anywhere as Posey is aging but Patrick Bailey their number 6 prospect is a switch hitting catcher who profiles to make MLB by 2023, right in the window the Pirates should be hoping for. This one would take some creativity but the Giants as I said aren’t scared to spend, and Boras wouldn’t scare them away.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have a window and it all lines up with Vlad Jr. First base was patrolled by Travis Shaw and while he is certainly serviceable he can’t provide what a good Josh Bell can. The competitive landscape in the AL East is arguably the toughest in baseball, but if the Jays are to compete with the Rays and Yankees they’ll need to find magic in a bottle somewhere. The young core is exciting but they’re missing something, is Josh Bell what they’re missing, who knows, all we have to do is hope they think so. The Jays have two catchers in their top 10 prospects and a pitcher I’ve had my eye on Alex Manoah. The familiarity between Cherington and the Jays make this possible and perhaps could even open up to package deals. Something like Bell and Musgrove for Manoah and Alejandro Kirk. The Bucs could even get more than that in return, in fact they better, but those would be my centerpieces.

The Texas Rangers

The Rangers had almost just as horrible a season as the Pirates did, so it seems odd that they’d want to bring in a player like Bell, but they have a gaping hole at first base and they’ll spend money happily. They’re definitely rebuilding so prospect capital means more to them than others but if this helps them solve a problem at the same time I could see it. Bell is a Texas boy and that might just mean something to both him and the Rangers. Texas would be foolish to part with Sam Huff so get that out of your head but they have a diverse mix of position and mound talent in their top prospect list. As is the case with many teams at their stage of rebuild, 5 of their top 10 prospects are currently in MLB so in many ways the Pirates might have to settle for talent a bit lower on the list.

That’s my list of top contenders for the services of Josh Bell. I know many have suggested the A’s but I just don’t see it, I think that move just isn’t in their DNA. The Angels are a team I pondered because Albert Pujols will be in his last year of his ten year deal, but they already have Ohtani as a DH option. They can probably hold off and see what other options crop up in the next off season. The Mariners don’t need a 1B, the Astros just re upped Gurriel for a season, the Red Sox clearly want to build their team internally. Tampa rarely makes moves like this and I’m not sure he fits their philosophy anyhow. Baltimore is building and that’s not a fit. Yup, I’m going to leave it at those five.

Given all my self imposed criteria, these are the most likely to me, but through this exercise I’ll tell you what I learned, don’t be too shocked if we see Josh Bell in a Pirates uniform come 2021 in Bradenton.

Four Playoff Teams Doesn’t Describe the Pirates Division

We watched them all season, probably with even more attention than usual because there were no West Coast trips or requisite swings to the North-East. The NL Central wasn’t an impressive place, but they still managed four playoff spots, today let’s look at how the division is trending and try to get our arms around the environment the Pirates will be playing in next season.

We must start at the beginning, the very mediocrity of the division contributed directly to the playoff spots. Nobody was good enough to juggernaut the division. Even the Pirates gave the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals issues this season. For comparison, the West was dominated by the Padres and Dodgers. The East enjoyed the Braves who themselves are a flawed team. The Cubs led the division from stem to stern and finished 8 games over .500 but if you watched them, even against the pitching deficient Pirates, the bats slept all season long.

So where are they headed? Let’s take each team in the division and discuss the decisions they have to make, keeping in mind someone pegged to be a free agent isn’t the automatic farewell it tends to be for the Pirates.

Chicago Cubs

The starting pitchers carried the Cubs to the Division championship in 2020, highlighted by the best version of Hu Darvish we’ve seen since he was tossing darts for the Rangers. The top of the rotation is locked up and set to return in 2021, with Darvish, Hendricks and Lester. Lester still has it, he’s changed over time, no longer is he going to blow anyone away but he’ll bulldog through a lineup and get more outs than a whole lot of guys with better stuff. Jose Quintana is out and so is Tyler Chatwood most likely. It stands to reason the Cubs will be on the market. It’s a fairly weak SP market in 2021, in fact you might call it Bauer and everyone else. They will pick up someone and hope Hu has back to back strong seasons, which hasn’t happened often for him in his career. The bullpen is an issue for the Cubbies too and they’ve suffered greatly from Craig Kimbrel turning from a lights out closer to a guy with a gimmicky pitching stance who can’t get outs.

On the offense side of the coin they have decisions to make, as 2021 is the end of the road for a bunch of their players. Some they’ll sign and others they’d be wise to deal. It’s a formidable list featuring Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber. I can’t see Bryant staying, partially because he very publicly felt mistreated with service time manipulation and partly because he has had a heck of a time staying on the field.

The need to keep some of these guys, and pay through the nose, might hinder the Cubs being able to get in on the top starters in free agency, and truth be told, it might be time to embrace at least a partial rebuild. 2021 is a fork in the road for Chicago, they can hold on and go for it one more year or pull the rip cord and try to get to the next window faster. Interesting to see how they go.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards probably aren’t going to change much, and that is most likely not happy news for the rabid fan base. The biggest decision they have to make, and it’s not theirs alone is whether Yadier Molina returns or not. From the Cardinals perspective, he’s not just the face of the franchise he’s the heart and soul. He’ll be 39 years old and since his backup Matt Wieters is also up for free agency they really need to lock up two. The Cards always have pitching and while they could be ready to say goodbye to Adam Wainwright at any time, they also survived the loss of Miles Mikolas to forearm surgery and Carlos Martinez. Discoveries like Mikolas and this season Kwang-hyun Kim add to the near constant flow of youngsters who step into the spotlight like Jack Flaherty.

If the NL does away with the DH the Cards will be forced to find a place for Matt Carpenter again in the field. Not that he’s a bad fielder but he’s not elite either but he likely slots in at second base should they decide to let Kolten Wong walk after 2021 or move him before he reaches free agency.

Moral of the story, the Cardinals have a capable team but it won’t run and hide with anything in 2021 either. I can’t see them going into next season without at least trying to add another option to provide DeJong and Goldschmidt some help. Marcel Ozuna who the Cards were upset to lose in the first place might be in play.

Milwaukee Brewers

The biggest loss on the horizon for the pitching challenged Brewers is quite possibly Brett Anderson. Far and away their best starter, Anderson should command a pretty penny on the market, and the Brewers have few options internally. Perhaps that’s why they actively shopped Josh Hader before the deadline in 2020 even though he isn’t due to reach free agency until 2024. The Brew Crew have eaten their system alive to open the window they’re just coming out of and while every Pirates fan would love to see their club spend the way the Brewers have, it comes with a price.

That price is being stuck with a player like Ryan Braun who if the NL casts aside the DH will become little more than a $10,000 chandelier in a mobile home. Christian Yelich is the centerpiece now, just like Braun was supposed to be back when he signed his extension, but at some point they’ll need to pitch. That’s going to take moves and they have precious little capital to use toward that effort.

I’m not saying the cupboard is bare, this team can hit but the starting rotation without Anderson, should they swing and miss, will become Freddy Peralta and everyone else. Look for Hader to be one of the hottest names on the trade market, he can net a nice return and they need it badly.

Cincinnati Reds

Ahh, the paper champions of 2020. Nobody made a bigger splash acquiring talent last off season and given an entire season it’s hard to fathom the hitting wouldn’t eventually catch up to the pitching. We’ll never know for sure because the season was what it was, but they sure looked like they had more answers than questions heading into it.

The Reds biggest potential loss far and away is Trevor Bauer. He’ll be arguably the top available free agent in the league so seeing Cincinnati come up with the funds to lock him down doesn’t strike me as likely. That said, most of the team is under control for quite some time, at least through 2024, if there ever was a time to go for it, we’re there.

Even without Bauer it’s hard to find many holes, but they’ll need to get rebound efforts from players they’ve committed to like Suarez, Moustakas and Castellanos. If Joey Votto and Jesse Winker are their best hitters again in 2021 this team will underwhelm again. It would be almost criminal to have this many pieces on offense and let it fail because they couldn’t lock down a rotation. Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo are certainly not peanuts but without Bauer they’ll have to hit their way into contention more often than not.

Look for Cincy to put a solid offer together for Bauer or go after one of the other tier one starters, of which there are few.

Keep an eye on the Pirates division mates this off season, because no matter how you look at it, the power is shifting in the NL Central. Should be a fun off season to watch.

MLB Rules for 2021 are Still Undecided, What Could That Mean for the Pirates?

So many things have been changed by the events of 2020, it’s hard to keep up. Not just in baseball of course, many of us in the real world have no clue when or if we’ll ever see the people we were tired of sitting next to at work as of February.

One thing we have to go on is the league doesn’t plan on starting late, the Pirates are scheduled to start Spring Training games on February 27th in Bradenton. That means you can expect Pitchers and Catchers to report somewhere around the 13th. That’s a little over 4 and a half months from now.

I’m sure some of you are doctors, or have some kind of special insight because of what you do for a living but even given that, none of us can truly know that everything will go off without a hitch. So, it’s fair to say MLB needn’t be in a huge rush to finalize the rules for 2021, at least not before the World Series is over.

But not all rules are created equal, some of them will affect roster construction. I mean we’re talking about a rule as simple as do we or do we not have a universal DH.

The argument over making the DH universal typically comes from potentially losing a form of baseball literally only played in the National League. I’ll be honest, I was one of the people who wanted nothing to do with the DH coming to my town. Watching this season, I still from a purely strategic point of view prefer the non-DH game, I like using the bench, making calls about pinch hitting for a pitcher in the 5th, rally’s starting at the ‘wrong’ time like the 7 hitter with a lead off single.

That said I watched this season, still am for that matter, and aside from the strategy aspect, I guess I wound up not being too bothered by it. Point is I could give or take it, but if I’m a team executive (if you saw my car you’d know I’m not), I kinda want to know, and like, soon.

If there is a DH, the Pirates have options on the table that really don’t work well if the NL bucks the rule for next season. None bigger than keeping both Josh Bell and Colin Moran. We can argue they should trade one or both of these guys and I certainly think they should explore that, but exploring and being virtually forced to are two very different things.

Both of these guys play first base, ok both of them stand on that side of the diamond. Moran plays the spot slightly better, probably not enough to make a call on alone. Moran has been more consistent with the bat but his upside isn’t nearly as high as Josh Bell. It’s as close to an either or as you can get for actual baseball. The control is similar, the play is similar, the numbers are fairly similar. Should the Pirates not find a taker for either that returns whatever the GM has decided fair, it sure would be nice to have that DH spot to land on. Even if it accomplishes nothing more than giving the option of playing a half season to have either play up their value.

If there is not DH, and you can’t get a deal done that you like, do the Pirates need to just suck it up and take less than value? Should they have Moran play another position? I say Moran because I think he probably has more capability than Bell, but not by much. Third base is out most days, I mean there’s this Hayes kid I keep hearing people talk about.

We’ve seen Moran play second base for spot starts but, c’mon, that can’t be a real option if you claim to want to take defense seriously. Regardless of what you think of Polanco’s defense it’s hard to see him being a fit there in right field, just not enough speed.

Yeah, I just can’t really see either of those guys playing anywhere but DH or 1st Base. It’s a real problem and it sure would be great if the Pirates had the benefit of time to figure it out.

It doesn’t just effect these two guys, they could move one of them and work around it but remember when I mentioned the strategy part? The bench is, I won’t go so far as to say more important in the National League, but I’ll at least go so far as to say it requires more specific roles.

Position flexibility is key, and defensive upgrades have a real place as double switches. For instance, having a proven good pinch hitter like Jose Osuna is so much less important if you take away most of his opportunities.

From a roster construction standpoint, this is the biggest rule change up in the air with the possible exception of roster size although I think 26 is extremely likely. That’s what we’re left with, likely, unlikely, probably. Even Rob Manfred himself has essentially ranked them by possibility of sticking.

He put his own concern that universal DH would be eliminating a style of baseball and he wasn’t anxious to do so. The most likely to stick seems to be the extra inning ghost runner which kind of blew my mind. Looks like 7 inning games is going away which is bad news for complete game stats the league over.

We’ll see what happens, I get to say that because I’m not waiting on information in order to make some rather large decisions. I’m sure the GM’s are communicating fears just like this to their owners, but I’m sure they’ve been asking them to step up and try to get them equal economic footing too so who’s to say.

Let’s Talk Pirates 2021 Starting Rotation

I know, I know, it’s incredibly early for this, but I believe we can do this anyway. Couple reasons, first I feel fairly confident that if they bring in a starter, it won’t be a better option than what is currently here, and on top of that I don’t see the Pirates making a whole lot of moves this off-season to the starting pitching.

Now before I begin, I know this isn’t what many want to hear, and I’ll be honest I think they could go get someone that would really help for even a short two year contract close to what they would pay Archer (I’ll get to that in a minute) and if nothing else come out of it with a nice piece to flip for prospects.

Where to start? OK, Archer, he is as good as gone. No matter how many attention seeking radio hosts say they think it’s a good idea, no matter how nice a guy he is, no matter how much money Ben Cherington thinks he is ok spending, this is not a good risk. I’m not going to repeat myself on this much more but this just isn’t going to happen.

So let’s talk about who I do believe will be here.

Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Joe Musgrove, Mitch Keller and Jameson Taillon. Additional options would be Cody Ponce, JT Brubaker and Clay Holmes.

This is with me, right now, deciding for the Pirates that Trevor Williams isn’t part of this picture. This also makes Cody Bolton start in AAA (which I think is a no brainer). This also supposes that Joe Musgrove doesn’t get dealt.

Now before I get into why I picked who I did, let’s start with why I don’t think Big Joe gets dealt. I’d call it a hunch, but an educated hunch. Listening to comments from Derek Shelton and Ben Cherington during the week I picked up on both of them calling out Joe as a positive thing to build on in 2020 with his strong finish. Of course this could just be complimentary stuff about a guy you’re trying to sell, but to paint it as a reason to look forward to 2021 and then turn around and move him, well, let’s just say I’d like to think neither of these guys are that bad at PR, but we’ve certainly seen worse.

So, of course I could be dead wrong about Joe. But being where we are in the off season let’s go with it.

Chad Kuhl worked his way through the shortened season and after a blister setback and scheduled ramp down finally got himself stretched out to 7 innings and over 100 pitches. Tommy John is a process to recover from and I think Chad came through it fine, he showed he still has the velocity and his control with his 3 and 4 pitches make him extremely formidable if he stays on track.

Mitch Keller is quite honestly the Pirates great youth hope on the mound. This is the closest thing to a lock the Bucs have to be tossing meaningful games in September some day soon. He showed us why after returning from his own injury this year and something drastic would have to happen for him to not start.

Steven Brault has arguably been the best starter in a Pirates uniform the past two seasons. Adding length and an ability to get through the lineup more than twice has been his greatest weakness beside occasional bouts of his fastball tailing a foot outside to righties. But for the most part Steven has really been a great innings eater and extra credit for being a left hander, so badly needed in PNC and so often neglected. This season Steven should go in having to have his job taken rather than doing the taking as he has the past two campaigns.

My last pick is Jameson Taillon and this one is a bit creative. First, no the Pirates aren’t interested in making Jamo the closer or moving him to the bullpen, but we just watched what a player coming back from Tommy John can look like and this is Jameson’s second. I’m not a doctor and I’ve seen the same videos you have but I saw similar for Chad Kuhl and he was slow walked into pitching like nothing I’ve ever seen. If they handle Jameson in the same way I could very easily see him being part of a piggy back situation not unlike what the Pirates did last year with JT Brubaker and he would be my selection again.

Now the biggest problem I have with that is the roster isn’t going to sit at 28 this season and almost more importantly the National League is leaning toward not returning the DH. That means the Pirates can’t short their bench in order to stockpile relievers, and they may not be able to afford to keep a guy in the “bullpen” who only pitches once every five days.

Another way to look at it is the Brubaker himself probably earned a good look in Spring to land himself a spot in the rotation.

Injuries happen, nobody knows that more than Pirates fans so imagine having Brubaker, Ponce, Bolton and Holmes in reserves.

This isn’t a bad starting rotation. Don’t get me wrong it’d look better with Trevor Bauer in for Joe, but this is Pittsburgh, I’m not going to waste my breath. When you add up all the parts it could be pretty steady, certainly good enough to hang with an NL Central that promises to continue taking steps backward next season.

When you look at that potential, you could make an argument that they really should trade one of them. The Bucs need the prospects and Musgrove makes a hell of a lot of sense. I’m not saying he’s going to return a boatload but he’d bring a nice prospect, hell maybe he even returns a nice bullpen piece.

And of all those pitchers, can you argue that Trevor Williams should be above them? I really can’t. I’ve been asked can’t the Pirates get something for Williams? I guess it’s possible, but if they offer him a tender and go to arbitration they could move him, that said, I just told you I can’t find a spot for him on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 19-41 Pittsburgh Pirates. I’d non-tender him, it solves a bit of a 40-man issue and removes the temptation to make a bad decision based on a decent Spring.

I’m not trying to sell you on this being a rock solid rotation. What I am trying to say is, there is no way this club pays for a pitcher better than 6 of the 8 I mentioned.

Ben Cherington already mentioned the Pirates like most teams who have a whole lot more money going out currently will look to tighten the belt. Now I’m not sure how he thought that would be received but I can say the savings will come without additional dumps. Holland, Archer and Kela alone constitute 13.725 Million and even with arbitration for far more players than you’d like they will still have a lower payroll. For instance if Musgrove gets moved it won’t be a dump per se, after arbitration he will most likely end up with a salary in the high 3’s or low 4’s. Hardly worth getting the calculator out.

If there is a big trade it will be Bell or Moran (but not both), Frazier or Gonzalez (but not both) with a very unlikely outcome of finding a buyer for Polanco.

I’m not one of those guys who is going to try to sell you on the best free agent possible could be Jameson Taillon, but sometimes that is very much so the case. If he is a real MLB starting pitcher by mid-season that is one hell of a pick up.

I feel like I need to go overboard telling you I don’t think this is a “winning” ballclub in 2021, but I do think it starts to trend the right direction. And starting pitching is where it starts. I’ll also add if they don’t move a pitcher they need to extend one. Almost all these guys are 2 years away from walking away, if they want to keep a couple to have a steady platform for Bolton, and some of the younger prospects to land when the time comes, it’d be best if we weren’t staring at Keller, Brubaker and an abyss. They can always move them later if they so choose but I’d be comfortable extending Taillon (if he looks strong), Musgrove, Kuhl or Brault to start creating some stability, while we’re at it, Keller too. I wouldn’t lock them all up, this isn’t the 1991 Braves, but two or three leaves room for Brubaker to evolve and youngsters to get there but not be counted on as the savior.

Rebuilds start and finish with pitching, I truly believe that, when you have it, you have a chance. When you don’t you might as well call it what many referred to this season as, a tank.

Late Season Means Short Off Season, Quick Decisions Coming for Pirates

The Pirates started making changes this week, starting with Larry Broadway being removed from the Farm Director position. Today the Pirates claimed Sean Poppen a right handed relief pitcher, to keep the roster at 40 JT Riddle was DFA’d. Yesterday the Pirates activated Edgar Santana from the restricted list and the corresponding move was out righting Susak.

The significance of the Santana move is that it means his suspension is over. The rules were written in such a way as to leave it up for discussion as to whether he would still have time to serve entering 2021 or not, clearly behind the scenes the question was answered, 2020 in its entirety was the punishment.

Those moves aside the Pirates have until right after the World Series to make some moves and unless something very unforeseen happens they will lose someone they don’t want to lose.

The first thing to assume is that the Pirates decline to pick up Chris Archer’s option and pay him his 250K. I’ve explained multiple times why but if you want to see the reasoning check out this piece. Other players who automatically come off the list are Holland, and Kela.

The Pirates will need to clear 8 spots by my count and some of the choices make themselves. This number could be bigger if they just want to clear room.
1. Carson Fulmer
2. Yaksil Rios
3. Tyler Bashlor
4. Brandon Waddell
5. Dovydas Neverauskas

Those are the pretty safe bets to hit the street. Nothing new for any of them really and I don’t think many fans will not shed a tear although it would be a shame to lose Bashlor and the depth he could provide. So that get’s us to 3 and this is where the choices get hard.

Trevor Williams has to be on the short list for possibilities, it’s either that or commit to taking him to arbitration. The deadline for deciding to offer him a tender is December 5th, five days after the World Series but these decisions will blend together.

I’d put my money on Kevin Kramer, at this point he’s little more than a utility guy and fair or not he hasn’t made an impact. After that you need one of Jason Martin, Nik Turley, and Clay Holmes. I truly can’t see them dropping any of those three but they have to be considered.

If Crick’s velocity is shot, aka dead armed, he would be my choice to take it the rest of the way. I’d rather have Turley and Giving up on Kramer says you can’t give up on Martin yet. Holmes is just too talented, if he stays healthy I’ll be blunt he could push to join the rotation at some point in the next season or two.

All of these changes don’t take into account any additions the club picks up but these decisions will also start to show what Cherington is thinking. It’s a perfect excuse to waive goodbye to some players who have more than fairly had their time of evaluation and honestly there is nowhere to hide.

These moves have to happen. When your club only wins 19 games in a 60 game season it’s easy to assume all these choices are simple but the Pirates had so many injuries this season especially in the pitching staff that they are forced to make some bets on players returning who they didn’t lay eyes on versus players who stepped in and auditioned. What do they trust more, who they’ve seen or what they thought they had? Time will tell, just not much time.

The Player development system is going to be Ben’s main focus this off season as he just told the media on Tuesday in a conference call, he’ll be shuffling some chairs and making additions to the scouting department but nothing earth shattering. This is a bit of a departure from what he had said but the outcome of the draft in 2020 could have rightly changed his feelings about what he had. He said he has changed some of the methods and areas of focus for certain members of the department.

I should also say that free agency starts the very next day December 6th and another tidbit from Cherington was saying payroll may decrease and it probably sounds worse than it is as Kela, Holland and Archer minimally come off the payroll, but on the other hand I wouldn’t waste much time seeing which pitchers will be available with an eye toward them wearing black and gold.

The hot stove this year will be all about the trade market and we’ll dig in soon.

Pirates Top Five Prospect Edition: A Way Too Early Projection Of The 26 Man Roster

The dust hasn’t completely settled from the Pirates disappointing 19-41 season and we are still about a month away from decisions concerning options and qualifying offers for arbitration, as well as the beginning of free agency, yet I can’t stop myself from thinking about the composition of Pittsburgh Opening Day Roster for 2021; especially the potential prospects that may find their way on to it.

Each year coming out of Spring Training there are prospects that end up making the final cut and find themselves in the field, on the bench, as a part of the starting rotation or getting ready to warm up in the bullpen. As the past year began this was even more likely with the Opening Day Rosters expanded to 30 players due to COVID-19. For the Pirates there were technically only two players that met this criteria; Jason Martin and JT Brubaker. If you want to add Mitch Keller to this list I wouldn’t argue with you due to the fact that he fell just shy of exceeding his rookie status eligibility by two innings during 2019. That’s three out of 30, with Martin unlikely to make in a normal year and only being on it this one, when Gregory Polanco was placed on the COVID IL. It goes down to one if you don’t count Keller. One out of 26 roster spots. The odds are clearly against a prospect making the Opening Day Roster, even on a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates; where there are a limited number of guaranteed positions in the lineup due to poor play by many in 2020.

However, as the season progressed we did get to see several of the team’s Minor Leaguers make their debuts; some of whom ended their seasons on the active roster. Although, not one of them, including Ke’Bryan Hayes, exceeded the service time limits and will all maintain rookie/prospect status as they move into 2021. So which ones, other than Hayes, are most likely to make the Opening Day 26-Man Roster as I already have Ke’Bryan penned in at third base to begin the year? In my estimation there are probably five that have a pretty good shot.

1) Kevin Kramer

With all of the craziness surrounding the 2020 season some of you may have forgotten about him. Originally seen as the eventual double play partner for Kevin Newman up the middle, Kramer has suffered setbacks on the field at the Major and Minor League Levels; including his season ending hip surgery in May of this year.

Now I know that Kramer technically accrued a year of service time on the IL, so that would make him ineligible for this list. However, in only 79 career at bats for the Pirates, Kramer has slashed a measly .152/.222/.165 with only one extra base hit, a double, across two seasons; so for this purpose I focused on actual MLB performance. His best year came back in 2018, with the AAA Indianapolis Indians when he batted .311 with 15 home runs. However, he regressed in 2019 as his average dropped to .260 and his home run total fell to 10.

If Kramer is able to return healthy in 2021, his role would more than likely be that of a utility man; of which the Pirates have plenty options in that area currently. So, it is also possible that he finds himself the odd man out, having missed the opportunity to prove himself due to a poorly timed opportunity injury.

2) Blake Cederlind

Already being dubbed as the closer of the future by some, “Baby Thor” took Spring Training by storm with his blazing fastball, now infamous K-Strut and flowing, golden locks. When he eventually made it up to the Majors this season, the locks were gone, but the 99 mph fastball and of course the K-Strut remained. Making only 5 appearances and pitching just 4 innings Cederlind struck out 4 batters, walked one and allowed 2 hits; good for a 4.50 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, in the smallest of sample sizes.

In 2019, the Merced College product, pitched in 7 games for the High A Bradenton Marauders, 31 games for the AA Altoona Curve, 3 games for the AAA Indianapolis Indians and 8 games for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League; posting a 2.28 ERA and a 1.180 WHIP during the regular season, along with a 1.13 ERA and a 1.375 WHIP in the AZFL.

As a reliever, Cederlind possibly has the best shot of anyone on this list to start the year with the big league club due to the general inconsistent nature of bullpens; plus nearly touching 100 mph on the radar gun doesn’t hurt his cause either.

3) Jared Oliva

After a strong performance in the second half of the season in AA Altoona last year, which won him team MVP honors, continuing to excel in the Arizona Fall League and consistently impressive effort at the alternate site in Altoona, Olivia earned his first taste of Major League Baseball in late September. In 6 games and 16 at bats he collected 3 hits and stole one base; which of course is not very notable, but at least he got to shake the jitters off.

Currently sitting at the #10 spot in the Pirates Top 30 Prospects according to MLB Pipeline, Olivia has one of the more direct paths to playing time as he is one of the most advanced natural centerfielders in the system. Bryan Reynolds has reported that he would like to play the position and Travis Swaggerty is a more highly touted prospect, but I couldn’t see what it would hurt to give Oliva the nod out of the gate to begin 2021 or at the very least have an open competition in Spring Training.

4) Cody Ponce

During the 2020 season Ponce was the equivalent of the 6th man off the bench in basketball as he became the Pirates go to player when the rosters were expanded to 29 for the occasional doubleheader. In three starts Ponce the posted a 2.63 ERA and a 1.024 WHIP, striking out 9 and walking 5 in 13.2 innings of work. His best outing came in the second game of the Pirates doubleheader with the Cardinals. In 5.2 innings he did not allow a single run on 5 hits; earning his first big league win in the process.

As we all know by now Ponce was the player the Pirates received from the Brewers in the Jordan Lyles Trade last year. Once ranked as high as 17th on Milwaukee’s Top 30 Prospects, it’s not like this guy came from out of nowhere. However, there was some uncertainty as to whether or not he would remain a starter in the long term. He has, for the time being, shown that this is still a possibility.

There could be some stiff competition for a role in the starting rotation next year, especially since JT Brubaker also performed fairly well in his 9 starts for the Pirates this past season. Of course all of this could change if Ben Cherington were to make any significant moves via trade, non-tenders, etc., ultimately opening up one or more spots in the top 5.

Even if this doesn’t happen I could see Ponce competing for a spot in the rotation or sliding back into the bullpen to begin the 2021 season.

5) Nick Mears

Mears was one of the more surprising call ups of the Pirates truncated 2020 Season. Having pitched only 5 innings in AA Altoona in 2019, after beginning the year in Low A Greensboro, he had truly gone from relative unknown to a Major League reliever in a period of about 16 months. Throw in 8 scoreless innings in the Arizona Fall League for good measure and that was Nick Mears’ professional baseball career in a nutshell.

For Pittsburgh he would appear in 4 games; posting a 5.40 ERA and a 2.200 WHIP, while he struggled with control by walking as many as he struck out, 7. This is obviously not ideal, but it also hasn’t been the norm for Mears and can more than likely chalked up to inexperience, which will only be gained over time. At only 23 years old, Mears has plenty to spare, with not a whole lot of miles on the arm.

Although it is unlikely that Mears begins the season on the Open Day Roster, stranger things have happened. You know, like calling up a 23 year old kid with only a little bit of time in AA.

Is it possible that one or more of these guys are at Wrigley Field on April 1st next year? Yes. Is it possible that none of them are? Also, yes. With a lot of normal transactions and other roster decisions already on the docket between now and then, it is evident that things could look a lot different come Spring Training. So, anything that comes out now trying to predict what will happen in 6 months time is nothing but speculation. However, that is half the fun of any off-season.

Pirates Expect Oneil Cruz Back for Spring Training

We all saw the story about Oneil Cruz and his situation in the Dominican Republic. This is not an indictment of the media, they are reporting what they believe to be fact as it comes. No this is more to show how stories like this evolve but not everyone comes along on the ride.

Let’s start at the beginning, on the 22nd of September news broke out of the Dominican that Pittsburgh Pirates top prospect Oneil Cruz was involved in a motorcycle accident that cost the lives of 3 people. As with any story such as this wait 20 minutes and there’ll be an update, this time is was that alcohol was involved.

Fans and some media for that matter of course shared thoughts about what an idiot Cruz is, how spoiled these athletes are, he should never play again, on and on. When a story like this breaks, more eyes will be on it than at any other time in the life cycle of breaking facts. It becomes a feeding frenzy, a virtual orgy playing out on social media of people deciding the fate of the player and for that matter the organization.

People actually wrote pieces talking about how the organization doesn’t install moral fortitude into their players. Fans blamed Cherington for sending him home to the Dominican, so did some writers.

All along the Pirates stood firm that they had no information that led them to believe alcohol was involved, but that did little to change the story.

Patience is important for things like this, especially when it involves a country that has a less than stellar history with fairness in their legal system and even less in their media.

Then the story evolved again only a few days later. The three people on the motorcycle who lost their lives were allegedly without a headlight and driving on the wrong side of the road. There was no evidence that Cruz had any alcohol in his system and he had his pregnant girlfriend and sick child in the car with him.

In fact as it turns out he would have been in Pittsburgh to end the season after the training bubble in Altoona closed up but Cruz asked the organization if he could go home because his girlfriend was late in her pregnancy and he felt he needed to be with her.

Ben Cherington just reiterated yesterday in interviews with the media that he has no reason to believe Cruz will be anything less than a full participant come Spring Training and the club has no sense that this was anything more than a tragic accident.

I’m not here to tell you that’s the end of the story, I’ll still refer to Cruz as an if until the day he shows up with his glove. The larger point is this story has evolved and what sucks is there are a whole bunch of people that haven’t heard one damn thing new since the 22nd.

That’s not anyone’s fault, not everyone lives on social media waiting for updates, but if the updates to the story were treated with the same ravenous hunger that the original ‘sexy’ story was perhaps the new facts would be a bit more prevalent. Well, I don’t have the biggest platform in the industry but I’m at least going to put it all in one place here and say right now, fully expect Oneil Cruz to make his way to Bradenton once this is all cleared up and it won’t require the Pirates to turn a blind eye to alcohol abuse or the tragic loss of life.

The rush of making sure everyone knows your opinion first has made most of us form locked in opinions long before the facts are gathered. Nobody likes to be wrong so changing that original opinion is harder than is should be. In fact when/if he does show up for Spring Training there will be questions about how he ‘got off’ or who the Pirates paid to get him off from fans, because it’s so much better than admitting they jumped the gun in forming an opinion and or didn’t pay attention because the aforementioned feeding frenzy of initial takes doesn’t happen for corrections.

In many ways the damage is done, to a certain percentage this will be part of his reputation no matter who writes what on the subject.

I called for patience on the 22nd because we’ve seen this before as recently as two years ago when David Ortiz was shot at his friends bar, rumors ranged from he was in with a gang, to he was vocally against a gang to he owed gambling debts. People talked about him destroying his legacy and many of those takes ignored the very critical situation he was in fighting for his life. If that can happen to a name that big, an actual hero for so many players from the region, how could you take verbatim a story about a kid who hasn’t set foot on an MLB diamond yet?

There are many things that the minute by minute news breaking of social media has made better in our lives, but I’d argue the worst thing it’s spawned is the rush to be first has created an environment where sources and methods are at the very least less scrutinized than they should be and when you’re playing with someone’s reputation, it’d be good if everyone cared as much about correcting the misinformation they’ve put out as they did originally condemning the person.

Again, the media is giving you information they receive for the most part, sans opinion. It’s not their fault what you do with it or how you ignore the cautions of some of them to understand even their level of trust in the source is less than great. The point is don’t come out of this blaming the media for this story, instead take a good look at how you ingest news and don’t be afraid to be wrong and admit it.

Social media has changed us forever, but at some point we need to stop blaming the machines for what we have willingly become.

Top Ten Pirates Questions & Answers We Hear All the Time

There are many questions that readers have about the Buccos, each and every one has a variable but for the most part we answer these in one form or another almost daily. So let’s put them all in one place and see if we can’t get past them and on to a new set.

  1. Why don’t you list Chris Archer in the rotation for 2021? So, this is a long answer but only because I have to spend time telling you what it isn’t as well. Chris Archer lost 2020 due to injury, the specific injury is TOS and it is just about the most difficult to recover from. Here is a wonderful piece about the condition and the history of recovering from it. His option is for 11 Million if they pick it up or they can buy out of it for 250K. Picking up the option with the expectation he will perform well enough to move at the deadline would be quite the roll of the dice as he’d be a rental and this club will already have to non-tender some players they’d rather not. Kind of cheating here but another angle on this question is why not pass on his option and sign him for less? Even if the Pirates think that’s a good idea, Archer would most likely bet on himself that he could get more than the Bucs would offer, but I suppose if he would take 7-8 maybe it’s possible, just not likely.
  2. Should the Pirates extend Ke’Bryan Hayes now? The quick answer most other readers will tend to toss at the asker is No, he just started. There is precedent for this sort of move and the White Sox just did it with Luis Robert. If you feel reasonably assured a player will make himself very expensive via arbitration alone it might be wise to pay more now to avoid making tough choices later. Craig covered this well right here. It’s a gamble to be sure but again, gaining traction in the league as a method of gaining cost control.
  3. What’s the point? This team won’t ever win until they spend money. Well, yes, of course that’s true. Building a team the way the Pirates have to approach it is a slow climb. Let’s just for the sake of argument pretend the Pirates have 60% of the pieces that will eventually make them a winning club. When players they draft or acquire start to make their way into the MLB scene that 60% will have either reached arbitration or been signed to extensions. The payroll will go up organically and it will most likely top the 2016 level. If you’re waiting for them to do something like the Reds or Brewers and sign someone to a monster deal (Votto or Yelich) I’d first tell you they haven’t had a player like that in decades, no not even Cutch, and a free agent of that level isn’t coming here, even if Bob’s wallet was open on the coffee table. You can rightly count Cole, but he didn’t want to be here and that’s part of the equation too. You’re absolutely right they won’t win until they spend money, but at the same time they can’t buy their way out of where they are. Personally, I’d add 30 to 40 million in free agent acquisitions to improve the product right now and provide trade capital to accelerate the farm restocking, but let’s face it, I’m not the GM so when you ask, you’re not going to get my plan, you’ll get what I think Ben’s is.
  4. The Pirates are the League’s farm team! Ok so this isn’t a question as much as a statement but it is extremely popular. First let’s talk about what makes this a reality. The Pirates have been in a constant state of trying to pretend they had a competitive team since 2015 ended. Rather than biting the bullet and moving what they had all at once (or at least close) they have moved one or two players who were nearing the end of their contract or control with the club every year. Tampa does this all the time, and they soon will again when you start hearing names like Snell being put on the market. The difference is they have talent pushing their way onto the team and by the time they sell a player the downside is already in view or predicted, see Archer. It sure helps when you can sell a name for three big pieces doesn’t it? As dumb as the Archer trade was in hindsight (and yes I know, you all knew it was dumb at the time) that move was at least in Huntington’s eyes, a starting OF in the future, a failed SP prospect and a top pick who they wanted to start but profiled as a bullpen arm. He was wrong, period but this wasn’t a dump, just a dumb move. Overall, you’re right, they have been. Hard to assign that to the new management just now.
  5. Who is the most likely player to be traded? Wow, there are plenty of options but to me it’s one of Colin Moran and Josh Bell. MLB is leaning toward no DH in 2021 for the National League if that happens you simply can’t have both of these guys. The Pirates need to decide which one is not necessarily the future, but the bridge to Mason Martin or Will Craig. Adam Frazier is there and I’ll say this, adding him to the OF mix made me feel a bit less sure. The Pirates need OF help and if they insist on keeping Gonzalez at SS Adam needs a place to play so Newman can slide over. Musgrove is the most likely starter, but he’s also exactly the type of starter I’d like to see them extend. He’s one of those guys who isn’t going to be your number one but he’ll pitch like it on occasion. Pitching is hard to develop and having someone as an anchor is good idea. That said if they can get a good package, have at it.
  6. Would you DFA anyone unexpected? Well let’s be honest, what they mean is beside Riddle and the like, will the Bucs cut ties with someone that would shock us? Trevor Williams is my pick. If you’ve followed what I’ve written this season with any regularity chances are you came across some rather harsh takes on Trevor. For half a season in 2018 he was a decent starting pitcher, good even, but throughout his entire career including MiLB that one instance was the outlier. Holding out hope that he’ll return to that level, one must believe bad luck was at play for literally every other season he has played. Enough. If you want to show the fans that you won’t accept performance like that, cut ties and no I don’t think anyone will trade for him.
  7. Why won’t the Pirates cut Gregory Polanco? Simple but yet somehow not. He hit 7 home runs out of his total of 24 hits in 2020. Somehow led the team in RBI, and struck out 65 times in 157 ABs. Is that cut worthy, oh yes. He’ll make 11.6 Million in 2022 and that counts even if the Pirates cut him as it’s a guaranteed contract. In 2023 the Pirates can pay 3 Million to cut ties with him, and unless something drastic happens with his game, they’ll do exactly that. Best case scenario, he performs in 2021 and the Pirates have offers on him. Even then they’ll be accused of dumping should they move him but how can you trust he’ll be worth 12.5 Million in 2022 and not revert to the Polanco we’ve all seen for years? I like Gregory, and I would love to be wrong here, but the evidence is overwhelming that I’m dead on.
  8. Sell the team to Mark Cuban. You know, some of these are too easy. Let’s pick off Cuban first, he doesn’t want them. There was a time when he was interested but that time has passed, blame Bob Nutting for that as he flatly told him he wasn’t interested in selling when Cuban inquired. Mario won’t buy them either. Bob Nutting has no interest in selling this team and has a stated goal of handing it to his daughter when he’s done. If you really want to see it happen, stop picking individual names and understand MLB changing the rules to allow hedge funds to own teams is more likely. That said, it would be a bit like jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire, because what do hedge funds do? They make money, and they ‘hedge’ toward the most likely way to make more. That doesn’t often lead to purchasing 10 years of a pitcher’s services. If this takes you out of following the team or talking about current issues that are going on under the current framework, sorry, talk to you later when and if you get your wish. For the record, most people covering the team would love him to sell as well, we just have to deal with reality and the realities that creates. I’m not here to sell you false hope, I’m here to discuss ways this team can overcome ownership.
  9. 2021 is going to be just as bad isn’t it? Well, probably not. The Pirates got off to a historically bad start in 2020 and while injuries played a role, no team is going to do well when the supposed stars can’t hit. I can’t wrap my head around believing Bryan Reynolds is this player we just watched. The pitching staff is the one area where injury really did come into play and when it started to get healthy is really improved. As bad, no I don’t think so. Bad, yeah, probably especially when you consider they really do need to make moves. I’d settle for cutting bait on Williams, Crick, Riddle, Neverauskas, and the like to make room for others like Alford, Santana (after his suspension), Cederlind for more than 3 or 4 games, Oliva, maybe even Cruz. There is room for improvement without much moving from outside the organization.
  10. Why won’t they just cut all these guys and play the young players? Oh man, we hear this one a ton. I understand the sentiment and Ke’Bryan Hayes sure made it look like a no brainer didn’t he? Truth be told, they don’t have enough young players to really do this right now. That could change if they receive players who could help right now in exchange for trading veterans, but for the most part, they ARE playing the young guys. That’s an issue for a whole bunch of reasons, first being this is the result of Huntington’s building effort. And when we talk about age, I’m thinking service time, while I assume most of you mean actual age. For instance Jacob Stallings isn’t a young player, but he is a controlled and young (service time wise) player. I don’t need to envision a guy wearing black and gold in 2030 to think he is part of the solution right now. Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds are just ending their 2nd year in the show. This isn’t a team loaded with grizzled veterans who have fizzled out and playing so the team doesn’t eat contract, well Polanco is, instead it is a club loaded with young players who may very well emerge, but just as likely won’t. Cutting ties with controllable assets is something clubs like Pittsburgh are loathed to do and it quite literally is because they can’t afford to flush them without getting something to backfill the system.

Pirates Are In The Business Of Identifying Talent and Value, As Well As A Lack Thereof

Baseball is team sport; always has been and always will be. And as a team sport, a ball club can only be as good as their weakest link or in the Pirates case this year, links and one great player, no matter the position, can’t carry his team to a World Series alone. A starting pitcher can keep the opposing team off the scoreboard, while the defense plays flawlessly behind him and the batters hit the ball over the place to give their team the lead; only to have it all fall apart when the closer loads the bases and gives up a game winning grand slam. Things like this happen all the time. Just like Mike Trout has been one of the best, if not the best player in Major League Baseball for the past eight years; compiling 74.3 WAR during this time, yet the Angels have only been to the playoffs once in his career and were immediately bounced by the Royals in three games. However, this doesn’t mean that Trout is not a great player or that they haven’t had any other great or even good players on these teams with him. It just means that collectively they haven’t done enough to put together a winner.

When you look at a team like the Pirates that finishes dead last in MLB with a record of 19-41, it is evident they are nowhere near competing, much less winning anything. Does this mean that individual performances should be ignored because they couldn’t help Pittsburgh win more games? Of course not. Especially when it’s not like the Pirates were trying to put together a World Series caliber product on the field; which is exactly what the Angels tried to do this past off-season by adding players, including Anthony Rendon, only to finish 4th in the AL West, 8 games under .500 and 10 games back of the 1st place Oakland Athletics. Does it mean that they should allow players to regularly take the field if they are severely underperforming and are essentially the weak links; costing the team wins or at least making this a little more difficult? Absolutely not. A baker wouldn’t continuously put moldy bread on the shelves with his finest pastries and expect to make a profit, right?

So, what should the Pirates, and specifically Ben Cherington, be doing in the first days of this off-season and beyond? Simply put, they need to be carefully assessing and evaluating every single player; looking for the individual efforts, that when strung together or traded for more valuable pieces, could eventually lead to more wins, while checking the shelves for moldy bread that can be thrown away to make room for his eclairs and cannoli.

Luckily for Cherington and the Pirates there is some low hanging fruit in each of these categories. Ke’Bryan Hayes was the NL Rookie of the Month for September, his first in MLB; posting a .376 AVG, a .682 SLG and 1.124 OPS with 5 homers and 14 total extra base hits. Joe Musgrove earned a 3.86 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP while striking out 55 batters in 39.2 innings. On the other side of the coin were Trevor Williams and JT Riddle. Williams had a 6.18 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP and gave up a MLB worst 15 homers across 55.1 innings of work. Riddle slashed .149/.174/.224 at the plate and earned a -3 OAA in the field. You could probably plant Gregory Polanco’s flag in this camp, but in some ways it’s a whole different story thanks to the contract that Neil Huntington strapped him with.

After evaluating these few players, Cherington’s job gets a little bit harder as so many Pirates fill up the middle ground in between, with some closer to either extreme; causing the question marks to pile up. Is Bryan Reynolds more of the hitter he has always been or did this season expose some holes in his game? Can Colin Moran maintain the power he displayed, hitting 10 homers in 178 plate appearances, which can be extrapolated to approximately 26 over a full season? And this is just the tip of the iceberg!

For those of you who might think that Cherington and crew have plenty of time to answer these and countless other questions; they truly don’t. The World Series is set to wrap up between October 24th and 28th. Exactly five days after this decisions concerning picking up options and making qualifying offers for arbitration are due; not to mention this is also the start of free agency.

It is clear that things are going to start moving sooner rather than later and when they do it is going to be fast and furious, so GMBC and the Pirates better come prepared.

A Big Reason to Believe the Pirates Have Begun Correcting Course

There isn’t much that can be written to show the Pirates have changed the way they develop talent, Even if the 2020 season had been normal the club made minimal changes to the development system because of how late in the game Cherington was brought in.

We’ve been writing in this space for most of the season that many more changes were on the way for the development system this off season and sure enough the Pirates announced yesterday that Larry Broadway was out as the Farm Director. Because it’s the Pirates, of course people wanted to see a list of 20 names so that fans could pretend they knew all these guys and had been calling for their heads.

Reality is, even people who closely cover the club don’t have much clue as to what all these moving parts do. Broadway is the head of the snake when it comes to player development, he get’s a special announcement because it’s a big enough role that they need to actively job search to fill the seat. That new hire will have input on how the rest of the dominoes fall and much of the pool of potentials are actively with their clubs right now in the playoffs.

Development has been an issue for quite some time in Pittsburgh, paired with struggles in the talent acquisition side of life, it was a match made in hell.

This wasn’t an organization finding many diamonds in the rough, in fact if anything they were holding their breath hoping a diamond they brought in wouldn’t get nicked up to the point it no longer shined by the time it was brought to market.

In short, don’t get frustrated you haven’t heard a laundry list of Pirates brass hitting the unemployment line, those changes will come and again, you won’t know most of them.

The point of optimism really comes from a devastating reality truth be told. Out of the Pirates top ten prospects Ben Cherington has brought in 4 or them. Nick Gonzales (1), Liover Peguero (5), Brennan Malone (7), and Carmen Mlodzinski (8).

Two from a trade, and two from the draft. That’s great news that they’ve been able to add four players to the top end of their talent pool so quickly, but it’s also frightening it got so bad.

When you look at the other members of the top ten you find players who are prospects in name only such as Jared Oliva (10) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (2), both clearly already in the plans for the MLB squad. We don’t know what will happen with O’neil Cruz (3) as of right now but he too is probable for 2021 if he somehow escapes whatever is going on in DR right now.

It’s bittersweet news. This means that he’s at least done a better job at bringing in top talent but he’s also had the benefit of having an earlier pick than they’ve had since the 2011 selection of Gerrit Cole.

2021 will obviously bring an even higher level pick and based on the very short track record we have to go on it should be an exciting infusion of talent and I don’t just mean whomever they choose number one overall.

Think about this for a moment, two players who have already made appearances in MLB for the Pirates, Kevin Kramer (21) and Will Craig (22) are ranked below 3 of Cherington’s 7 draft picks. They also rank below his 2 trade acquired players. That’s a second round and a first round pick, and it’s hard to imagine either cracking even the lineup we just wrapped up watching.

It’s not that you discount the possibility they could improve and I certainly don’t, but this is evidence that either the development or identification was broken, probably both in reality.

Fans have a picture in their head of what change looks like when a new GM is brought in, they expect big visible moves and brash statements, but sometimes the biggest statement is in the results themselves.

Ben Cherington is actually remaking this system, and the results are already starting to show. This is where the team’s foundation get’s built and the future spawns from.

In 2021 the Pirates will most likely have ten rounds of selections plus compensation choices, if Ben can have even close to the same level of quality he achieved in 2020 the entire system starts to look different.

If you believe all of this good news is superseded by Bob Nutting standing behind Ben waiting to stab him in the back, I’d say perhaps the system being built correctly will become the reason players move, rather than the near constant effort to get something for someone we’ve lived with.