Steel City Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates Offensive Struggles

This past off-season I wrote an article examining the supposed strength of last year’s team. Somewhat by default due to struggles from the pitching staff and the defense, the offense rose to the top. However, as I dug deeper, cracks in the foundation began to surface.

When a casual baseball fan is looking to judge the ability of their team’s hitters, batting average is more than likely the statistic that sticks out the most. The 2019 Pittsburgh Pirates excelled in this category, posting a combined average of .265, good enough to be tied for 5th in all of MLB with the Rockies and Nationals. Their BABIP (batting average in balls in play) was even better at .304 (4th overall). They hit with runners in scoring position (RISP) to the tune of .273/.350/.460 and struck out at a rate of 19.5% (2nd). Unfortunately for the Pirates this is where the positives ended and the cracks I spoke about before began to show.

As a whole they ranked 18th with a .321 OBP (On Base Percentage), 19th with a 92 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus), 20th with 722 RBIs, 21st with a .313 wOBA (weighted on-base average), 21st with 758 runs scored, 22nd with a .420 SLG (slugging percentage), 25th with a .156 ISO (Isolated Power), 27th with 163 homers, 27th with a 6.8% walk rate and 27th with a 33.9% hard hit rate. I realize that some of these statistics are ones that only stats nerds like myself pay attention to, but you can’t argue with the Pirates ranking in the bottom half or worse in every major hitting category except for batting average. And to top thing off the Pirates batters struggled in another area that had to be very clear to anyone that paid attention to even a handful of games last season. When the Pirates hitters came up with the bases loaded, they could not seem to get anything going, no matter the number of outs they had. Overall, they posted a .227/.267/.378 slash line in these situations. Their worst performance came with no outs (.200/.176/.333) and their best came with 2 outs (.250/.314/.391). Even a couple more hits in these situations and the team’s other numbers might not look so bad.

Looking backing on some of the statistics from the previous season and how they were potentially affected by a historic couple of months from Josh Bell, Kevin Newman outhitting what all of the advanced metrics said about him and loss of Starling Marte from the middle of the lineup, I am almost stunned by the bullish approach I took concerning the potential of this club to remain consistent or even improve offensively in the 2020 season. It must have been the hope of new beginnings clouding my judgement; that or nearly every Pirates hitter having the worst offensive seasons of their professional careers. Either way, at this point in the year we all know how things have gone.

Currently the Pirates have a combined batting average of .214, which has them tied with the Rangers for second worst in all of MLB; with only the Cincinnati Reds hitting slightly worse at .213. There BABIP is only slightly better, sitting at 28th (.264) and they raised their strike out rate to 24.4% (11th); although I feel Gregory Polanco’s 40.6% K rate might have someone to do with that. As far as RISP goes, they are slashing .223/.300/.339. Now, remember these were the areas that were considered strengths only a year ago. I was almost afraid to look at how the weaknesses measured up between this season and last.

In some ways it was worse than I thought as they rank dead last in MLB in so many areas; including OBP (.279), wOBA (.271), SLG (.338) ISO (.124) and HRs (46). And even when they weren’t the worst, it was close enough as they ranked 29th in wRC+ (68) and RBIs (182). Honestly the only area Pirates batters actually improved was concerning W%, going from 6.8% to 8% because moving up the rankings doesn’t alway equal getting better. Last year they were 27th in Hard Hit and moved up to 17, even though they dropped by a percentage point from 33.9% to 32.9%.

I knew it was probably a waste of time and would most likely be negated by a small sample size, but before I was done I had to find at least one positive. I wasn’t disappointed in either area as it truly was a waste of time, found in an extremely small sample size. With the bases loaded and one out, the Pirates are slashing .364/.444/.455 in 19 plate appearances. That’s 19 plate appearances over 1121 on the year. If you have to look this far to find anything remotely positive, chances are your team isn’t very good with the bat; which is clearly the case for the 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Stallings Lifts Pirates To Victory With A Solo Shot

When Steven Brault last took the mound he threw an absolute gem; a complete game, during which he only allowed only one run on two hits, while striking out eight St. Louis batters. At the time this was only the Pirates third quality start of the season. Since then members of the rotation have added three more, with Chad Kuhl falling just shy of a fourth. In spite of this, Pittsburgh has yet to make another mark in the win column; coming into tonight riding a five game losing streak.

Luckily for the Pirates, Brault had an encore in his back pocket in the form of a second quality start in a row. This one did not go as smoothly at times as he hit back-to-back batters to start the fourth inning and walked three others over seven innings at work, but he did not allow a run, gave up two hits and struck out six. As Gary wrote late last week; Maybe it’s time for the Pirates to open themselves to the idea that maybe Steven is in fact deserving of a spot. Over the past two seasons as a starter, Brault has posted a 4.01 ERA with a 1.315 WHIP. These are not ace numbers by any stretch of the imagination, however they are consistent and reliable, which should at least get him a fair shake at the start of next season.

When Brault was lifted from the game Pittsburgh’s offense had done just enough to set him up for the win thanks a pair of well timed doubles from Erik Gonzalez. The bullpen on the other let this small cushion slip away as Sam Howard gave up a two run home run to Anthony Rizzo.

Enter an unlikely hero in the form of catcher, Jacob Stallings. With the game in danger of going to extra innings, Stallings ended it in walk off fashion on his third his third home run of the year, a solo shot to left field.

The Pirates did everything they could to let this one slip away and waste another quality start, but for one night they faced a team that is almost as bad at hitting as them. Tomorrow they look to earn at least a series split as they take on the Cubs at 7:05 PM EST. Trevor Williams (1-8, 6.70) is scheduled to take the hill against Liam Hendricks (6-4, 2.93 ERA).

News and Notes:

Gregory Polanco scored 2 of the 3 runs in the game and didn’t strike out once. I am as surprised as anyone!
The Pirates struck out 10 times tonight, 4 times looking. Bryan Reynolds accounted for 3 of the total Ks. Man he is just off this year.
In spite of being in 1st Place the Cubs Batting Average as a team is only .010 points higher than the Pirates. .214 to .224.

We Thought We’d Win More Certainly

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the death spiral of terrible baseball season and folks are making quite the scene out of Ben Cherington’s quote up there when asked if this is what he expected.

Quite some time ago, probably all the way back in the SI days I wrote a piece that essentially called for transparency from this front office in order to try to rebuild the trust that Bob Nutting and the last regime had so badly damaged.

Now, truth be told, it wouldn’t matter what any of them said, you have a winning percentage below .300 and you’ll not win much favor from anyone. Here’s the thing though, I actually believe him on this one. I believe he did thing this club would be more competitive, note, that’s not compete for anything per se, but be a bit more competitive.

Name a position player you truly believe in now heading into 2021. Let me guess, the 20 game deep rookie right? Bryan Reynolds still have your faith?

This club is going to make changes if only because there is little choice but to change. The set up of the roster construction says so, the record says so and Cherington has said so, but what exactly happened to an offense that in 2019 quite frankly despite being power deficient was at least fun to watch if not down right effective.

Hayes of course wasn’t here, but literally every other offensive player on this club has taken a downturn. All the injuries to the pitching staff don’t mean a hill of beans if they can’t score. This is an offensive league now, it’s all about the homerun and the strikeout. No surprise the two worst clubs Texas (3.67 RPG) and Pittsburgh (3.52 RPG) are in the exact same position in this category as they are in the standings.

We always here things like that don’t we? This is a Homerun League! Launch Angle and hard hit rate are the most important hitting metrics! These Pitchers need to miss more bats. Just look at the last 6 games for the Pirates, a stretch that has seen them get 5 really nice starts and only win one game. In the one they did win, a huge three run shot from Polanco. Boy, if we’re waiting for Greg to hit homeruns to win next season we’ll have around 25 wins.

Why do the Pirates have to try to play the same game as the rest of the league? They simply don’t have the homerun hitters to keep up, so why not coach this team to match the skillset of the talent here? They all suck, yeah, yeah I get it, but hey, just in case some of these guys are closer to what they put on tape in 2019 than 20, maybe they have a little more to give.

This is all going somewhere, I think Rick Eckstein should probably be on thin ice, but I’d love to know how much Shelton was interfering in his responsibilities.

This has been a trend across the league, some of the top offensive talents in the game have struggled to get their footing, I mean look no further than that Cubbies lineup. I guess it would be May or so by now in a regular season so, sure many of them could turn it around.

Mike Trout sure did, he actually had people asking questions on ESPN about weather he was ok, well, he’s turned it on since and amazingly the Angels stopped competing with the Pirates for last place.

100% flipping of this roster isn’t in the cards, I’ll do a much deeper dive on this as we move forward but if you’re expecting them to move everyone and start over with 3 or 4 guys staying, you’ll be disappointed my friends. We better hope that Ben is at least a little right and they can indeed do better.

The Pirates are Finding Answers in the Rotation, but the Bullpen and Offense Continue to Fail the Test. Cubs Win 5-0

Experimentation is part of evaluation. Pretty simple concept right? This is why you see weird lineup spots, players posting up in spots they’ve never played and I’m not even bringing young guys learning their craft into the conversation.

Just as big a part of evaluation is knowing when to pull the plug. Erik Gonzalez is not a number 3 hitter, just isn’t. Yeah, it’s easy to say he sucks or whatever knee jerk reaction you want to toss out, but I’m talking more from a mentality standpoint. See we often stop shy of believing that’s a thing, but when Erik has hit leadoff or lower in the lineup he is patient and his OBA reflects that, put him in a production spot and he swings much quicker.

Some guys get put into those production spots and can’t get past the feeling that they need to be the guy. It’s pretty clear to me that putting a guy like that there is doing nobody including him any favors.

Here’s the thing with all this evaluation stuff, you have to hope they’re learning the same things you are. One of those lessons should be that JT Brubaker should head into Spring penciled into the starting rotation. He pitched well in his last outing and tonight he really put on a clinic. He went 6.2 innings with 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 9 Ks. One of those runs was on a bunt with two outs and the other was a single and double back to back. He had been using his fastball nearly 55% of the time and add in the 35% for his slider you only have 10% to split between his Curve and Change.

The Change up is a work in progress for the young man, he has a good one but you can tell he doesn’t trust it entirely. The Curve is electric, but he doesn’t throw it nearly enough. Part of this could be misidentification as his slider and curve almost overlap into a slurve at times. When he’s feeling both and they are identifiably different as they were this evening, he can be a really solid pitcher.

We can all be mad at how this year has gone, trust me there are players in that room who completely agree, difference is they’re responsible for it where you just have to watch it. OK, well I HAVE to watch it, you get to I guess.

That said, they don’t control how they’re utilized. That has been my biggest issue this season with Shelton, not disagreeing with his decisions as much as not understanding how they jive with the stated goal of “getting better” or “evaluation”. To me, if the moves don’t meet either of those expectations, it’s fair to criticize, and oh boy will I when this season officially becomes history.

Blake Cederlind came in with a runner on and two outs relieving Davis in the 8th. He uncorked a wild pitch and walked a batter then gave up a double to Kyle Schwarber to put the Cubs up 4-0. After that a shattered bat single scored another to make it 5-0. Another base hit for Heyward, did I mention this was all with two away?

The offense was really lackluster tonight, and when one of the highlights is Polanco walking twice you know I’m right. Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to hit and Bryan Reynolds continues to chip away at the line he’s created for himself but very pedestrian effort.

Wasting starts is the theme of the past few games, and as much as I’d love to get on Cederlind for getting touched up, first, it happens and second, if you don’t score any runs it really doesn’t matter how many you give up past the first one.

4 hits won’t get it done most nights and the Pirates have far too many games like this. Look, results are results, but you’d like to at least feel like the approach is good. You watch a game like Brault’s last start for instance where seemingly the entire lineup is going the other way and taking what’s in front of them and wonder how the very next night it flips to this impatient, swinging for the river approach that nets them next to nothing.

You can’t turn every hitter into something. You can’t turn every hitter into what you want them to be either. Sometimes you have to coach to skill set, and even the most fervent disgruntled fan must admit some of these guys can hit better than this. Something has to change, and it might be the hitting coach.

Bucs lose 5-0 to the Chicago Cubs

News & Notes:

JT Brubaker continued a streak of really nice starts dating back to Steven Brault’s complete game last week. In that span the Pirates have lost all but one and the only turd in the punchbowl was Trevor Williams.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is locked in. WAY too early to decide he’s going to the 2021 All Star game but he’s certainly shown what he can do when things are working. Have to like what he’s shown and he’s not popping singles over the short stop, he’s roping balls to the wall and gaps with regularity.
Blake Cederlind came in to the 8th inning with two away and a runner at 1st. He hit 100 on the gun but gave up 2 runs and allowed one inherited runner to cross the plate as well. Rough night, but important to remember as good as this kid’s stuff is he has never pitched an inning past AA prior to being called up. He’s a keeper.
Bryan Reynolds has never hit below .302 in his college or professional career, until now. He was asked about his performance and here is what he had to say. “There’s no getting out of it at this point,” Reynolds said. “I”m not going to be hitting what I want to hit, so I’m trying to find something this last week that I can build on for next season. Obviously, I would like to have more games, have 160 games instead of 60 to get things back to where they should be, but I don’t have that luxury.”
Jared Oliva made his MLB debut tonight in the 9th with two outs. He Struck out looking to end the game on 3 pitches.

Small Sample Size

There is a reason why Major League Baseball requires a hitter to accumulate a certain number of at bats and a pitcher to throw so many innings or make appearances a fixed amount of games in order to qualify for any individual honors at the end of a season. This is because baseball is inherently a game of streaks, both hot and cold. A batter can go off for a few games or more and be on the top of the world; then without warning he enters a slump that makes you doubt why he is even on your team. Pitchers can be locked in, hitting their marks and embarrassing batters at every turn one week and the next they are getting hit all over the place or giving up free passes to almost everyone they face. The good and especially great players are able to limit these valleys in order to put together more consistent numbers across an entire year.

However, we as fans will always look at theses highs and lows under a microscope and come to conclusions that can be far from the truth. It is the danger of a small sample size that I have seen put into action on many occasions and seemingly more so this year above all others, when each game equates to almost three times fewer than it would in a full 162 game season. At times in this shortened season people have used less than 40 at bats and/or only two or three appearances to make judgements on what type of player some is, which more often than not will come back to bite them in the end. It just isn’t enough time to make an valid argument for or against anyone.

Toward the beginning of the Pirates season there were two hitters that were dubbed as breaking out. Both Colin Moran and Erik Gonzalez had extreme hot streaks in the first few weeks of the year, leading people to question if they had been wrong about the pair and getting them to start talking about their place in the Pirates future. Moran came out of the gate swinging; literally. Through the first seven games of the season he was slashing .333/.385/.875 with 4 home runs in 24 at bats. It was declared that Moran had finally found his stroke and was coming into his own in his age 27 season. Then reality sank in as he proceeded to hit .228 over his next 127 at bats. Some of the power stuck around as he hit another 4 homers and 11 total extra base hit, but he has seen his once astronomical numbers slip to .240/.322/.448.

Gonzalez on the other hand took a few games to get going; accumulating only 2 hits in his first 16 at bats. On August 4th against the Twins a switch flipped and would burn brightly over the next 7 games. During that time Gonzalez saw his average shoot up from .125 to .349 and his OPS reach as high as .907. Pirates fans and media members alike jokingly, but somewhat seriously, proclaimed that we now knew why Neil Huntington’s scouts were “banging the table” to acquire him from Cleveland. However, as we all are aware, this streak did not continue and over the last 30 games and 111 at bats Gonzalez has slashed .225/.270/.351; leaving his yearly numbers sitting right around those for his career at a .252 average and a .679 OPS.

On the pitching side of things there have been several Pirates declared as having career changing or defining seasons. I even saw Dyvodas Neverauskas’ name mentioned after he made his first three appearances of the year; I kid you not. However, there is one that stands out to me above all others because people were holding onto hope in spite of the advanced metrics showing the probability of an on coming downturn. Geoff Hartlieb looked to be unstoppable, or rather a reliever that could be brought in to stop the other team in any situation, especially high leverage ones. In his first 16 games, Hartlieb saw his ERA shrink to 1.86 and his WHIP fall to 1.24, but if you looked a little closer his 4.75 FIP and 6.98 BB/9 would be staring back. Over his next three appearances he would only last one inning, walking 8 batters, hitting a couple others and allowing 5 earned runs on one hit. His once envious ERA has more than doubled to 3.98 and his WHIP now sits at 1.62; the victim of two polar opposite small sample sizes, with the type of pitcher he will become yet to be determined. This will only be accomplished by seeing more of him and not buying into what he does in just a few games.

When following a team or a particular player no one is immune to making a judgment based on just a few innings or a couple of at bats. I, myself, made statements about how well Derek Holland had performed after being transitioned over to the bullpen. In his very next outing he gave up 2 earned on three hits, one of them being a home run. He now sports a 4.40 ERA in the relief role, which I don’t have to tell you is less than optimal.

Now I know that many of you will say that this whole season is a small sample size as the Pirates will only be playing 60 games and I can’t argue with that. I only want to make the points that if this is the case, how can any of us make an argument as to whether or not a player is having a break out season and why are we so quick to jump to judgements based on so few games within the ultimate small sample size?

Pirates News & Views 9-22-20

The season is winding down but that doesn’t mean the news and topics are, if anything that stuff is just ramping up.

News:

Steven Brault on Thursday night tossed the first Pirates complete game since 2018.
Blake Cederlind made his Major league debut and tossed a scoreless inning
Cole Tucker slips, falls and hits his head. That’s a season ending concussion in an unfortunate set of circumstances and bad luck for the young man.
Kevin Newman gets plunked on the knee in the 9th inning of Saturday’s contest. Luckily it was only a contusion and not a break, so no surgery will be required. His season, however, is over.
Heading into the series against the Cardinals the Pirates only had 2 quality starts, then Brault, Keller and Musgrove all went ahead and had quality starts.

Views:

The success at the plate on Thursday night was heavily influenced by an opposite field approach that lasted through the entire contest. This is something this club did very well last season and something I hope they get back to. If at the end of the day Shelton wants a club that explodes for homeruns like the Twins did, I’m afraid he won’t find that on this roster and they’d be better off teaching each hitter to become their best version of who they are, rather than hoping to find one of them as Robinson Cano in disguise. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
The Pirates have had the Cardinals number this season and on the surface it makes no sense at all. Until you look up and realize the Cards are far from good too. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
One of the Pirates biggest issues is happening to some other clubs right now. You finally get your window open and seemingly so does the rest of your division or at least a couple. The Twins worked hard to get to their window that opened wide last season and along come the Sox. When the Pirates last window opened up they ran into the Cubs at the same time. Now that the NL central is down of course the Bucs are. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
When the starters struggle, the bullpen holds firm. We have seen these roles reversed on at least three occasions over the past week. The only things this really proves are that bullpens are sporadically dependable by nature and you don’t build teams around them. (Craig aka Bucs In The Basement)
When you have a young pitcher, coming back from injury, you hold firm to the pitch count. It’s ok for fans to get upset that this occurred during a no-hit performance, but it was the right call and anything beyond anger just makes you wrong. (Craig-aka Bucs In The Basement)
Both Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove are set to enter their second year of arbitration. I think it needs to be an either or not both type of scenario. I bet you can guess which one I am favoring. (Craig aka Bucs In The Basement)
60 games in a normal season would be considered a good time to make adjustments. In 2020 of course that’s the entire show. We would routinely see Clint Hurdle consider 40-60 games as an opportunity for batting clean up or lead-off. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
Fans have been waiting all season to see a consistent lineup, but being a Maddon disciple, it’s possible that simply isn’t in the cards for Shelton. Lineups under Joe are fluid and traditional roles don’t matter. Speed is not a requisite for the lead off spot, power is not a requisite for clean up. This isn’t an endorsement as much as an explanation, because quite frankly, not much has made sense in the lineup department. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)

Pirates Bullpen Wastes Another Quality Start

Following another disappointing loss on Saturday evening the Pirates took the field, a little later than originally scheduled, to finish off their five game series with the Cardinals. Having dropped three in a row and eleven of their last twelve. Pittsburgh is obviously out of any playoff contention, but there are always some benefits to finishing up the year on a high note; unless you are fully on the Krash/Tank/In The Kan For Kumar train, then I guess you are cheering for the Pirates to lose. Although I guess both of these things can come to fruition, if it is merely positive individual performances that ultimately do not determine any outcomes.

For those firmly in Kamp Kumar your prayers were answered as the Pirates extended their losing streak to four games as they recorded only two hits and scored their lone run on a sacrifice fly from Colin Moran in the bottom of the fourth inning. All game Pittsburgh’s batters looked lost at the plate striking out thirteen times in total.

For anyone looking to pull some positives out this loss, just like last night the Pirates starter gave a strong performance. Joe Musgrove pitched six complete innings of scoreless baseball, allowing only three hits, walking one and striking out a career high eleven batters. However, in very similar fashion the bullpen squandered the lead they were given. The offender on this day was Derek Holland, who gave up two straight hits to begin the seventh; the second one being a home run to Yadier Molina.

After dropping the final four games of the series to St. Louis, the Pirates are only seven games away from the end of the season. Tomorrow they begin the last part of their home stand against the division leading Chicago Cubs at 7:05 PM EST. JT Brubaker (1-2, 4.79 ERA) will take the hill for Pittsburgh. Schedule to oppose him is the crafty veteran, Jon Lester (2-2, 4.91 ERA).

News and Notes:

Coming into the series with St. Louis the Pirates pitchers had only two quality starts on the season. They earned three in past five games.
The Pirates do not have a qualifying batter with an OPS over .800. Their batting leader has an average of .252.
For those of you keeping track at home the Pirates have a 15-38 record, the Rangers are 18-34 and the World Series Champion Nationals are 19-32.

Erik Gonzalez is Better Than Most Thought

Before this season, Erik Gonzalez was looked at more as a DFA candidate than a starting short stop for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s been far better than many of us thought, but given the benefit of time and opportunity, I think he’s also proven the Pirates should and will have to do better.

It’s important to say, that headline is genuine, Erik is indeed better than most of us thought, problem is that still doesn’t add up to someone who will lock down that position for long. What he is to the Pirates right now is a potential trade piece or a terrific bench piece who can play multiple positions well and isn’t a dead zone in the batter’s box. That’s a valuable player, just not a starter.

I can compare players in many ways, so can you, and we can make data mean whatever we like. Nobody does it better than Joe Block, he loves to tell us from September 2nd through September 12th so and so is leading the league in XYZ category. That’s not what this is for Erik, instead it’s a comparison of his 2019 and 2020. Straight up he has better numbers this season in most categories, part of that could be playing everyday allowed him to get into some kind of groove, rather than the sporadic usage and injuries he danced around in 2019.

Here’s the thing though, the feeling and narrative all season has been that the Bucs really found something here, I’ve even heard him mentioned as being the locked in starting SS for the next few seasons, um slow down.

I think what we’ve really discovered is if this is this window’s version of Sean Rodriguez we’re doing ok.

Let’s take a look at his numbers and I’m not going to dive super deep, this doesn’t really warrant that.

This one chart shows a whole lot. It shows first of all, we saw Erik at his very worst in 2019, and in 2020 he rebounded back to his career averages, or at least close give or take individual categories. His xwOBA sits at .307 for reference the league average in this category is .320.

I could go on, his touted exit velocity is up, but only slightly and you can’t find a category that isn’t improved from 2019, problem is on almost every stat you look at he’s slightly below average both in comparison to his own stats and league averages.

Now it’s not all about the bat, the glove is elite, he sits in the 83rd percentile for OAA league wide, and on a team that at times kick the ball around like none other, there is cause to want a defensively elite player into the mix, especially if he can carry his own weight at the plate.

The facts don’t lie though, this isn’t a guy who should block someone from being called up. He’s also not a guy with no value, he could be a perfect bench guy who can spell Hayes on occasion capably, and handle both middle infield spots during injuries or even slumps.

My diagnosis after watching him perform with the opportunity he was given in 2020, this is the type of player you want around, he’s cheap, controlled and too old to keep prospects at bay for long. And that’s fine, not everyone needs to be a superstar. If you have a guy like this on your bench, you’re probably pretty good, well at least at the positions he plays. If you have a guy like this starting, you probably have some considerable work to do.

Take a stab at which one we are watching.

Pirates Future Shines Bright, Can’t Escape Specter of the Present and Fall 5-4 to the Cards

When you get to this point in a season slipping into hopelessness is all too easy. Things that looked promising start to look like land mines and part of you gets angry when that guy you want gone does something well.

The future doesn’t always react as you’d like when you bring them into the fold. Sometimes they struggle to grasp the new challenges. Sometimes they discover that stuff they got away with in AAA just won’t fly up here. How long that takes really depends on the player, hell some players perform in MLB far better than they ever did in the minors, the point is individual players have individual paths. Tonight the Pirates would benefit from two of them in a very well played ballgame for the most part.

Mitch Keller, two games out from returning off the IL started off a little wild, walking 2 and hitting a batter in his first 7 faced, then he locked in. At one point setting down 12 straight. His velocity was up around 97 most of the night, something he was not getting to early in the season and when he exited after the 6th he had a no hitter working on 84 pitches. Beautiful work from the young man.

This is only Keller’s 15th start in the big leagues and up until this point he had not put everything together. Some nights his fastball worked but the breaking stuff failed him, others just the opposite. Tonight though, everything was working. Shame he had to come out but the Pirates have been pretty rigid with their build up programs and wise to not risk the young man for momentary glory.

Another youngster who continues to impress is Ke’Bryan Hayes. He’s 17 games into his major league career, so temper your expectations with that very real knowledge, but in the first inning he drilled a homerun to center and then in the sixth he legged out a double. I love what I’m seeing from Hayes and the best thing about what he’s doing is the fact his hits are all over the zone and all over the ballpark. Really impressive stuff, but chill on marking him down as the clean up hitter the next ten years for a moment. This is all wonderful to see but let’s get into his career just a bit because the league will push back at some point.

After Mitch Keller exited the game the Bucs would add on to the Hayes home run and another solo shot by Osuna with two more and they would enter the 7th with Geoff Hartlieb. Here’s how it went, walk, walk, hit by pitch, then they pulled him and replaced him with Sam Howard, Double (2 runs), sac fly (1 more), single (2 more) and he too was pulled for Chris Stratton still with only one out and runners at 2nd and 3rd.

Stratton would walk Goldschmidt to load the bases and face Brad Miller and after going 3-1 he came back to get the strikeout. 2 outs, bases still loaded for DeJong who had already walked in the inning, this time he would fly out to center.

Game swung wildly in that 35 minute top of the 7th. We went from a 4-0 lead and a no hitter to a 5-4 deficit. The Pirates used 3 pitchers to get through the inning and it was ugly.

The top of the 8th would bring another piece of the future to the stage, this time in the form of Blake Cederlind. His characteristic 99MPH was on display and the movement is really something as it tails away from left handers and in to right handers. He made short work of the Cards. This kid is impressive, throwing that hard and hitting your spots with that much movement is rare.

In the bottom of the ninth Stallings led off with a strike out and Kevin Newman was drilled in the knee with a fastball. He looked to be in severe pain, obviously we won’t know for a while but he didn’t even attempt to put weight on it. Adam Frazier would ground into a game ending double play.

Losing an opportunity to toss a no hitter isn’t fun for the player or the fans, but losing Keller the way they lost Brubaker all of last year would be less fun I believe.

Yes, the future shined bright tonight on the North Shore, unfortunately they couldn’t overcome the present company of 2020.

Bucs lose 5-4. Game 5 tomorrow afternoon.

News & Notes

Geoff Hartlieb continues to regress. In his last three appearances he has struggled with control and has walked 8 in 2 IP with a hit batsman tacked on. As good as he was, he’s that bad now.
Mitch Keller exited tonight’s ballgame with a 6 inning no hitter going. This was based on his build up plan, and while not fun was the right decision.

Bring Up Gonzales and Cruz, Why Wait?

News yesterday out of the Windy City that the White Sox decided to bring up their top pick i the 2020 Draft, Garrett Crochet, and his subsequent debut where he blew away the competition with triple digit stuff really had some Pirate fans wondering why we can’t do the same.

The easy answer is these teams are light years apart in their evolution but somehow I sense that won’t be enough to sway some folks so let’s take a little deeper look.

First let me begin by saying this has almost nothing to do with talent or player evaluation. It has much more to do with the timeline. People love to say the Pirates have punted this year, truthfully, I hate the analogy because team building is much closer to rock climbing. Every solution becomes your next anchor, every placeholder free agent or mid level internal piece is a foot or hand hold as you meander your way up.

The Sox have found themselves reaching the tipping point for their window early, they expected to be competitive in 2021 and over the course of a full 162 game 2020 they could very well have discovered they were right in the first place. So what they’ve done here is decide their first round pick who profiles as a starter can help an area of deficiency right now in the bullpen. In the pen he can get away with firing those fastballs and most nights that’ll be enough to help the club.

So, Gonzales or Cruz could help the Pirates right now too you say? Of course they could, but the difference is to what end. As I said this isn’t really about player evaluation, we know that Gonzales and Cruz could provide some pop but this would be like starting Thanksgiving dinner before you finished grocery shopping. The Pirates are nowhere near competitive so bringing either of them up would do little more than waste their control on a non-competitive team on top of the fact neither are really ready.

You can’t ask a hitter to come up and only face fastballs the way you can exploit that talent from a pitcher. In fact the Pirates could have Mike Trout and Dustin May at Altoona and I’d not recommend bringing them up right now. Next season, sure, but right now all they do is accelerate decisions and take trade opportunities off the table.

There is no quick answer when your team is literally building from the ground up. Let’s say next season the Pirates go on a run. Ok, I’ll pause here for laughter to subside. It’s not about this scenario being plausible, it’s more about explaining this situation.

So the Pirates somehow leverage Taillon returning, Kuhl and Keller improving, maybe Brault and Brubaker really keep evolving, and it becomes a fairly effective starting rotation. They find themselves in contention out of nowhere because the NL Central stinks and things just fell right for them. Reynolds looks like himself, Hayes doesn’t suffer the sophomore slump etcetera, etcetera, you get it, improbable success smacks them in the face.

Then if you want to think about rushing a guy to the show because they have something that will play like Tanaj Thomas in the back end of the pen, ok you consider it. The benefit of what he can provide in the short term makes the sacrifice of his service time worthwhile.

That’s just not where the Pirates are. I know it’s easy to see what the team is now and imagine that most of the players could be replaced with youngsters and actually improve, but it just isn’t true. We see Hayes come up and be the best player on the team, and no I don’t think that’s a stretch at the moment, so of course we infer that there are others who could be just as much of an upgrade. This system has some very nice talent, but not enough, certainly not enough to throw away everyone who is here with no return to do so.

Writing something like this is tough, I’m essentially telling you to be patient. Telling a fan base that has seen a handful of winning seasons in 40+ years to calm down and wait isn’t exactly a fun message to convey, especially when you don’t really have much evidence yet that this management team is actually heading in the right direction.

If you’re just looking for reasons to believe, a good start would be properly using what is here and not continuing to play bad cards.

The Pirates, right this minute have internal, ready options that could make this team better and they refuse to use any of them. Right now they could move Williams to the pen and replace him with Ponce. You’d find out about a young starter and answer a question about Williams potentially helping the pen. In other words, you could find out if he is someone who should be here next season regardless of their ability to get a deal done while simultaneously learning more about a young pitcher who has impressed in his three starts already.

Jared Oliva was expected to make his debut this season and the Pirates are struggling with outfield production and finding someone to hit leadoff consistently. He could be here right now, rather than watching Frazier play cavernous left field and do his best with his infielder’s arm. He could give you a reason to sit Polanco who there just isn’t a list of questions to answer anymore. He will be here next season and if you want to see him improve, wait for Spring, meanwhile wouldn’t it be nice to get a look at Oliva now?

Blake Cederlind could have come up a bit earlier but we’ll never know exactly when he fully recovered from his COVID case. Even so, no reason to pretend he isn’t the best internal option to close games, let’s see it, well, if they ever have a save situation again that is.

I’m sure there are others, I’m also sure with so few games remaining this is a pointless conversation because it’s damn near hindsight, but suffice to say, they had very real options to use youth that would have made sense.

When you’re talking about bringing up a guy who hasn’t played one game at any level beyond college, it’s important to keep in mind who that type of player is, that’s a Griffey, or Harper or Strasberg, and while I’m quite sure Nick Gonzales will be a very good MLB player one day, those three he is not.

So as painful as it is, expect improvement next season, even if slight. Pray that Shelton has managed this season like he has no clue at times because of the oddity involved and injuries. Hope the Cherington has a plan and begins in earnest to implement it this off season. But whatever you expect, please don’t expect this club to take one or two of the very few potential stars and completely skip the development part of the equation, because they won’t, nor should they.