The Pirates Fall Twice In 14 Innings

Last night the Pirates snapped their eight game losing streak with an impressive 5-1 victory; with some strong performances from two somewhat unlikely sources, Steven Brault and Gregory Polanco . Brault went the distance for the first complete game of his career, allowing only one run on two hits and Polanco put the Pirates up for good with a three run homer in the 6th inning with two on and two out. Would the magic from last night continue or would the Pirates suffer from a hangover? Thanks (or possibly no thanks) to a twin bill from PNC Park there was going to be a decent amount of baseball to judge from.

Trevor Williams took the mound and proceeded put on a performance that has become commonplace for him, as he allowed five earned runs on seven hits, two of them homers, on 83 pitches across four full innings. As both Gary and I have stated on several occasions, Williams absolutely can’t just have a starting role handed to him going into 2020. After ten starts he now has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP, which completely puts to rest any arguments about lack run support when it comes to his 1-8 record.

The Pirates scored their first two runs exactly how you would expect them to, without registering a single hit, thanks to a catcher’s interference call and a sac fly. In the bottom of the fourth the Legend of Ke’Bryan Hayes continued to grow as a broken bat bloop single brought in three, one of them thanks to a misplayed ball by Tommy Edman. Unfortunately, they would only register one more hit for the remainder of the game and fell in the first game 6-5.

In the second game starters Chad Kuhl and Daniel Ponce de Leon both got off on the right foot through the first three and a half innings, allowing only one hit a piece. Kuhl eventually found himself in a little bit of trouble in the bottom of the fourth, but was able to escape with only one run against him. de Leon, who had already struck out eight Pirates batters, wasn’t so lucky as he let a four seamer slip away from him against Bryan Reynolds, which was quickly deposited into the river for a 2-1 lead.

Then everything went off the rails as the Pirates allowed the Cardinals to score six runs in the bottom of the six, capped off by a two run homer by the rookie, Dylan Carlson; and it all started with a catcher’s interference. After this half inning tension and frustration filled the air, ultimately resulting in Jacob Stallings’ ejection and a 7-2 loss for the Pirates.

This series seems like it should already be over, but there are still two games left to play; starting with a 7:05 EST matchup between Mitch Keller (1-1, 5.06 ERA) and Kwang Hyun Kim (2-0, .63 ERA).

News and Notes:

  • Trevor Williams is now tied for the MLB lead in home runs allowed with 14.
  • Geoff Hartlieb has now struggled in two straight appearances, giving up two walks and striking out none. However, he was able to escape with out giving up a run. Looking at the advanced metrics Hartlieb has posted a 1.48 WHIP, a 4.75 FIP and 6.98 BB/9. Now I am not saying he hasn’t performed well this year, I would just be prepared for some possible regression.
  • Sam Howard, pitched a scoreless top of the seventh, striking out two; leaving the door open for a potential comeback in the bottom of the seventh.
  • The Cardinals literally tried to hand the first game to the Pirates on several occasions with four errors and eight free passes.
  • In spite of the final score and the loss, Chad Kuhl pitched pretty well. Only one of his four runs was earned and he struck out six.
  • Bryan Reynolds went 2 for 3 in the second game and hit a ball into the river. This does make up for the fact that he has a .182 AVG and a .618 OPS on the season.

Steven Brault is the Pirates Forgotten Man

Maybe forgotten is the wrong word, I mean most of us knew he was here and that he’d pitch every five days or so. What I’m talking about is the fact that Steven rarely comes up in conversations about future rotations and he almost never is mentioned as someone the Pirates could trade.

In fact Steven arguably get’s more conversations started when people want to display their displeasure with the lineup by way of noting their preference for a pitcher to take their at bats.

I have a soft spot for Brault, I’ve never thought he was a terrible pitcher, but I’ve also never given him his due as a possible solution for the Pirates, but the reasons to think of him as exactly that are starting to pile up, and last nights 2 hit complete game, 1 run effort against the Red Birds didn’t hurt.

Importantly, that game wasn’t the norm for Brault. It’s by far the best start he’s ever had in the Bigs but it’s impossible to ignore it also happens to be the best start anyone on the staff has had too. In fact it’s the best start for any Pirate since 2018.

The worst part of discussing what he could be for the Pirates is the simple fact we don’t know who will or won’t be here anymore when the cleats hit the grass in Bradenton next February. Almost everyone has tried to project what the rotation might look like next season and Brault is rarely in it, hell he was barely in anyone’s projections for 2020 and forget about 2019, he was out there too.

Brault is almost never brought into the fold yet he was arguably the best starter in 2019 and after finally completing the pitch restrictions he began this season with due to a Spring Training injury he put together that 110 pitch masterpiece last night.

Let’s be honest about why that is, he doesn’t look spectacular. He doesn’t have a curve ball that falls off the table, his fastball is fairly average, the slider is probably his best secondary pitch but it too doesn’t have the type of movement most would get amped about. He’s added a change up and used it effectively last night to keep the Cards off balance.

It feels like Steven has been fighting to have a spot in the rotation ever since he got here, and that’s probably because he has been. He and Trevor Williams came up in 2017 and both started in the bullpen, Williams got his chance first and to his credit did well. Injuries would provide Steven with his shot, and I think it’s fair to say that’s been the same every season he’s been here. At some point is Brault the one who get’s the spot that someone else needs to take from him?

Let’s take 2020, if Archer is healthy he gets a spot right? Then you have Musgrove, Williams, Keller and you’re left with Kuhl, Brault, Holland, Brubaker. Brubaker wouldn’t have gotten a shot, let’s just lean on what we know to be true here, and I doubt they do the split start thing as it was an answer to not having enough healthy starters so they probably go with Holland.

I’ve already said we don’t know who will be here next season but let’s try anyway. Taillon, Musgrove if not traded, Keller, OK the top three is pretty easy, right? Then you have to make room for Kuhl I’d think, and how could you not give Brubaker a look. That’s five and guess who didn’t make it. Just like every season Brault isn’t in the mental rotation, but maybe he should be. I didn’t even mention Williams.

He has one thing going for him that all the others don’t, he’s a lefty. And having a pitching staff at PNC Park without one is derelict of duty. Problem is, he doesn’t pitch like it, his splits aren’t typical for a lefty in any way.

One start does not a pitcher make, but for someone who isn’t supposed to be a starter he sure does start a whole lot. For someone who isn’t ever supposed to be in the rotation he manages to make his way there every year doesn’t he? Maybe it’s time for the Pirates to open themselves to the idea that maybe Steven is in fact deserving of a spot, before the IL makes it necessary.

Brault will be entering his first year of arbitration next season and is under team control through 2023. Feels like he’s been around much longer than that doesn’t it? He could be an attractive trade piece, or he could be an answer right here, add Steven to the list of players to watch as we move forward because all he’s done is out pitch most of the guys many didn’t feel he belonged with.

Brault Goes The Distance In A 5-1 Win Over St. Louis

Coming off a four game series sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, the Pirates return to the friendly confines of PNC for a five game set against another division rival, the St. Louis Cardinals. Most of the time, at this point in the season, cellar dwellers like the Pirates are trying to play spoiler for teams that are still in the playoff hunt. However, as evidenced by the past few days, Pittsburgh has been more like a springboard as the launched the Reds into second place in the NL Central; good for 6th overall in NL Playoff Picture.

The Pirates entered tonight’s contest riding an eight game losing streak, with only twelve games to go in the truncated, yet somehow still very long and painful 2020 MLB season. Obviously having nothing to lose, would Pittsburgh put it all on the line or lay down and wait for the year to be over, while pretty much just going through the motions?

The answer to this question, at least for one day came from a very unexpected source. The 29 years young, Gregory Polanco doubled in the 2nd inning and hit a 3 run home run on a laser to right centerfield to get the Pirates on the board.

Steven Brault had a response of his own as he earned the third quality start for the Pirates on the season; allowing only one run on two hits in an unbelievable nine innings of work, while striking out eight Cardinals and walking only two for the first complete game of his career.,

The Pirates will look to make it two or three in a row tomorrow in a double header that starts at 4:05 EST with Trevor Williams (1-7, 6.35 ERA) and Chad Kuhl (1-2, 5.50 ERA) scheduled to start for Pittsburgh. But in all seriousness it is just nice to get a win after dropping eight in a row.

News and Notes:

  • Brault absolutely stole the show tonight and saved a taxed bullpen after the last four games in three days.
  • The back of the order (Polanco, Newman and Stallings) came through with a 5 for 11 night and 4 of the 5 RBIs.
  • It isn’t all great news for the Pirates as Erik Gonzalez has only three hits over his last 26 at bats, which has dropped his average to .250 on the season.

The Game Has Changed, and It’s Not Just the Rules

I’ve been a baseball fan for the better part of 40 years and in that time the game of baseball has evolved. I have to imagine for those of you who’ve been watching even longer the game is barely recognizable.

It’s not all about little rule changes though, in fact the only changes I can tangibly say changed the game drastically were raising the mound and the DH being implemented in both leagues this year.

More than any other factor, athletes changed baseball.

You can get lost thinking all the players are bulked up on steroids but many have done it the right way, just hard work. That’s not to say it isn’t going on, but I simply won’t lump everyone together under one accusation.

All sports have changed if you really think about it, Golf changed because equipment improved so much and one golfer came along who treated himself like an athlete rather than a golfer. Courses that used to challenge everyone suddenly didn’t once others followed in Tiger’s footsteps.

The NFL was overtaken by size and speed and while you remember Jack Lambert being an animal he’d struggle to see over the defensive line in today’s game. Mel Blount was so good they changed the rules to neutralize his ability and almost by the year they continue to make being an NFL Corner the hardest position on the field.

One of the most popular baseball themes is centered on pitching. These guys are soft with their pitch counts. None of these guys can get past the 6th inning. They’re all made of glass. These things and more can be heard on any message board and most broadcast booths in some form or another, but what has really happened here?

It can’t be training, these guys are more monitored and conditioned than ever before, in fact some believe the pitchers being ‘babied’ in and of itself is culprit number one as to what causes the uptick in injuries.

In reality, velocity is the main culprit and everybody wants it. Pitchers who average 96MPH or above have a 27% chance of landing on the IL and nearly 20% will have Tommy John at some point in their career. The use of weighted balls to increase velocity has become normal at even the high school level. The human body is simply not meant to do what pitchers are asking of it, and it makes drafting one all the more frightening.

Sometimes while you’re watching it happen it’s hard to really see the change, but in 2000 the average fastball sat around 88.4MPH, by 2018 it was 92.4MPH, and how could you argue the effectiveness? There is almost a 100 point difference in wOBA from 88-96MPH. That said, it comes with a price.

For the players it means increased chance for injury, for the club it means increased risk for investment, for the fans it means holding your breath every time you see your favorite pitcher so much as make a face.

The injury risk has led to changes in how pitchers are handled. Gone are the days of pitchers routinely going 9 innings and it would have been unheard of to remove a pitcher in the 8th inning of a shutout effort 20 years ago, today fans don’t even blink an eye. It just happened last night to Luis Castillo and think about it, he wasn’t mad, in fact I don’t think anyone even thought it was weird.

Next up are the analytics and extreme shifts. A player like Ozzie Smith wouldn’t be the legend he is if he played today, he certainly wouldn’t have put up the long career he did. Shifts have taken that incredible short stop with range for days and squeezed him between a third baseman and second baseman all piled on the left side of the diamond or patrolling right behind the pitcher while the third baseman becomes the short stop more or less.

Sure there are still nice plays but analytics themselves are designed to make the spectacular less necessary, instead making most contact an average out. Just last night we watched our prized third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes play some excellent short stop didn’t we? None of this is to paint the players as bad, but you just don’t often see a shortstop display the range and arm that used to be a hallmark of the position.

Hitters approaches have changed over the years, as a focus on launch angle has had major impact on home run numbers and on the other end of the spectrum contact numbers. This took over the league for a few seasons, and while I’m nearly positive MLB played with the ball a bit too nothing contributed to the explosion in power numbers more than launch angle. This was implemented to combat the shifts we just talked about, and now that it’s been a couple seasons we’re seeing pitchers combat it with high fastballs.

There was a time in the game when high fastballs would get you DFA’d more often than make you a strikeout machine, but focusing on launch angle has rendered many hitters incapable of catching up with a fastball in the top of the zone. The batters have little choice but to try and catch up to it as the pitch is actually in the strike zone but combined with the added velocity, most don’t stand a chance.

At some point the offense will push back. I just had a conversation with someone who would love to watch Rod Carew take a crack at today’s pitchers because he would exploit the shifts and hit .400. Well, let’s just assume he could hit the 98MPH heat I guess, but there will come a day when players start backing off on the launch angle and taking the single. And I don’t mean the trend of players like Kyle Schwarber dropping a bunt down the third base line, I mean a consistent opposite field approach.

If I’m a batter in today’s game my goal would be to get the opposition to play me straight up as much as possible. Bryan Reynolds had that exact situation in 2019, he could and did hit the ball all over the ball park. This year he and the Pirates focused on increasing his power numbers a bit and it has resulted in strikeout numbers like he’s never put on paper in his entire career and opponents shifting him just like everyone else.

The game has changed in countless ways, numerous times throughout the years but every alteration in philosophy leads to counter strikes. The key to success in an ever evolving game like baseball is to stop following all the trends and start setting them.

If you don’t like what the game has become, wait a couple seasons and check back in, I can’t promise you’ll like what you see but it will most assuredly be different.

Moral Victories Aren’t a Thing, Reds Defeat Pirates 1-0 to Sweep Series and Waste Great Pitching Effort

The Pirates coming into tonight’s contest have played 47 games, and in that time they have managed to have a starter last six innings 4 times. The bullpen has been a problem no doubt but it would be hard to expect the most seasoned of relief arms to withstand the workload the starting rotation has placed on them.

JT Brubaker took the mound in only his 9th appearance of the season following his worst outing in his major league career where he went 5.1 innings against the Cubs and gave up 7 runs.

Tonight was a different story, Brubaker was hitting his spots and gave up one run over 5.1 innings as his bid to be the fifth Pirates starter to complete 6 innings would end on his 92nd pitch of the evening. All in all a productive night for the young man and a really nice bounce back performance.

We’ve long since forgotten what used to be considered a quality start in Pittsburgh, but perhaps another thing we could look for is how often our starters exit with the team in position to win. I’d count but I’m not sure how the add in the piggyback stuff, so it’s either 6 or 9 depending on how you want to factor them in.

Players like this will need to become more of a factor next season and it’s really good to see the young man go out and shove. Now before we get too high on him, he can be more economical with his pitches still, his stuff is good enough to avoid barrels if he trusts it. And that 1 run over 5.1 could easily have been 2 if Sam Howard didn’t come in with one out and strand a runner at 3rd. Really nice work from that young man as well.

The offense is anemic beyond words. Josh Bell is hammering the ball and taking his walks, he really is coming out of this season long slump at this point and Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a total pro at the plate and the field. You see Ke’Bryan deserves a save too for keeping Brubaker’s line clean as the single that scored the Reds run in the 5th was cut off, Hayes made a beeline for the runner breaking from first and alertly turned on a dime and gunned down the runner heading home.

The kid is not playing like a rookie, again, I’m not ready to anoint the kid as Wade Boggs just yet, but what we’ve seen so far, he looks the part.

Unfortunately, those two hitters aren’t enough to win most nights, especially since one just started hitting and the other inexplicably sits three times a week.

Chris Stratton pitched a clean 7th and the Pirates would face Archie Bradley in relief of Luis Castillo who was lights out in the 8th and he quickly put the Pirates away in order.

The Pirates stuck with Stratton for the bottom half of the 8th and he struck out his batter and turned the ball over to Nik Turley with Shogo Akiyama coming to the plate. A nifty strikeout on a backdoor breaking ball and on to Castellanos who flew out to center.

In the 9th the Reds send Iglesias to the mound with a scary lead against any team at Great American Ballpark, 1-0. The Pirates sent Adam Frazier, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Colin Moran against the fireball throwing right hander. He would set them down on only 7 pitches to earn the save.

Well played ballgame, but in it’s most basic nature, you can’t win if you don’t score.

Reds Win 1-0 to complete the 4 game sweep of the Pirates and extend the Bucs losing streak to 8 games which would be bad in a 162 game season, let alone 60.

News & Notes:

  • John Ryan Murphy is 0-11 against the Reds this season with 11 Strikeouts, Yikes
  • Erik Gonzalez struck out his first three at bats tonight and didn’t look great doing it. He’s crashing back to earth a bit.
  • Bryan Reynolds pinch hit in the 8th and he is 2 for 17 on this road trip, batting only .174 nobody has been a bigger disappointment this season, no not even Polanco (we expected Reynolds to be good)
  • Sam Howard has stranded 4 runners at third with less than 2 outs this season including the one he inherited tonight.
  • I love the 6:40 start time in Cincinnati.

Earning A Spot On The Pittsburgh Pirates

Over the last week or so we have been hearing about the idea of meritocracy existing within the Pittsburgh Pirates clubhouse. Both General Manager Ben Cherington and Manager Derek Shelton have talked about the need for a playing time to be earned and that healthy competition is necessary for growth. Many people have taken these statements and ran with them to pick the low hanging fruit in the forms of JT Riddle and Gregory Polanco in order to disprove the existence of a meritocracy, which is completely justified. Currently Riddle is slashing .167/.200/.271 with a single home run. In the field Riddle has played multiple positions, but has recorded the most time at third base; 79 innings to exact. During this time he has committed 3 errors; earning -3 DRS and -3 OAA. Gregory Polanco has a few more homers, 5 to be exact, but is obviously underperforming. In 120 at bats, going into Tuesday night’s contest with the Reds he was batting .142 with a .501 OPS. His outfield performance is probably a little better than expected in that he has compiled 1 OAA and 0 DRS. However, the issues when trying to justify the presence of a meritocracy in the Pirates organization go well beyond these two players. It’s just easier for fans to point out a couple of unpopular guys and move on, with the ultimate goal of not having to mention some of their favorites. This just doesn’t make sense to me. How is any player beyond criticism? Because if we are doing an honest evaluation of talent, they clearly shouldn’t be.

On the season their are at least three Pirates players, and maybe more, that have somehow escaped the same scrutiny often piled onto Riddle and Polanco. The first player that comes to mind and undoubtedly fits the criteria is Cole Tucker. Tucker is slashing .225/.259/.284 with one home run; last hitting an extra base hit on August 31st. In the field he has spent the year becoming accustomed to patrolling the grass instead of the customary dirt at shortstop; experiencing some bumps in the road along the way. Between center and right field he has a total of -7 DRS and -1 0AA. Right now he isn’t even performing at replacement level, with a -.4 fWAR and a -1.1 bWAR, yet he keeps getting written into the lineup on an almost daily basis.

The second player on this list is infielder Kevin Newman, who despite some questionable numbers has become the most regular second baseman for Pittsburgh over the past few weeks. After competing for a battle title toward the end of last season with a .308 average to go along with 12 home runs, the shortened season has not been kind to Newman as he is slashing .227/.276/.284. Unfortunately he has also continued to struggle on defense, a fact that was often overshadowed last year due to the offensive output. At shortstop he has accumulated -3 DRS and -2 OAA. He does execute better at second base, earning 0 DRS and 1 OAA. However, when you have a guy that posts 4 DRS and 4 OAA at second base, it’s hard to claim meritocracy.

The last player I want to talk about is starting pitcher Trevor Williams. Williams is over a full season removed from one of the best second half performances many of us have ever seen from a Pirates pitcher. Back in 2018 Williams boasted a 1.38 ERA and a 1.074 WHIP across 12 games to end the year. This season Williams has an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.632 and has only gotten worse with each passing game. Over his last 3 starts he has pitched a total of 15 innings; allowing 14 earned runs on 22 hits, while walking 8 and striking out 16. How long does a member of the starting rotation just get the ball handed to him every five days, without a second thought? And no this isn’t a rhetorical question. Especially since we have seen a player, with no big league experience before this year, come up from the alternate site and perform fairly well in spot starts, only to be sent back down a day later.

Since talking over the helm for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cherington and Shelton have taken to using catchphrases and buzzwords that hold less and less weight when they are inconsistently implemented. The vision of identifying, acquiring, developing and deploying players, the desire to “get better” and the method of utilizing meritocracy in roster construction and lineup choices become simply words, rather than an overarching organizational shift in philosophy. Actions will always speak louder than words, and right now in the Pirates clubhouse and front office the silence is deafening.

Reds Win 4-1; Pirates Do Little to Change Their Fortunes

As this season has progressed I’ve struggled to understand many of Derek Shelton’s decisions. I’ve questioned his lineups, when he pulls pitchers, why he doesn’t like certain players. Some are right there with me asking why seemingly every inning brings more problems, others want to dismiss it all as not trying to win or decisions coming from the top. Another popular angle is that this is only a 60 game season, how could you question anything?

Well fair or unfair, I’m asking a few.

Let’s begin with tonight’s starter Joe Musgrove. He legit has good stuff, should we assume he’d be more on track if not for injury? Here’s the good, Musgrove has five pitches and he has good control of all of them. Tonight that added up to 8 strikeouts in five innings of work. Through all his injuries and difficulties since he’s been a Pirate one thing has plagued him more than any one other issue, he falls prey to the bad inning.

I won’t go so far as to say it’s every game, but it’s pretty close. For some reason he just runs into issues in one inning, maybe he gets mad at a walk, or the umpire’s strike zone. Perhaps it was poor defense behind him, maybe a soft serve hit. Perhaps like tonight it was just not fooling anyone on his curveball which he hung repeatedly early on.

No matter what, Joe only goes as far as that handicap allows, he’ll never be more than an inning eater at best if he can’t find a way to avoid blowing up so regularly. Tonight that happened in the first as the Reds jumped all over him and then he lost control to make matters worse.

As you know I tend to avoid blow by blow reporting for these game and this needn’t be much different. The first inning wasn’t about hitters being extraordinarily patient, or missing by a foot, just not hitting his spots, wild in the zone if you will and it spotted the Reds three runs off the bat.

Next up, Why wasn’t Blake Cederlind already here? He looked so good tonight making his MLB debut. I understand if it was COVID related or whatever but this bullpen could have used a guy who could throw 98 and hit his spots long ago. Instead we have filtered and suffered through Miguel DelPozo, Yacksiel Rios, Dovydas Neverauskas, and a cast of characters that would compare to The Muppet Show. He couldn’t have changed things all by himself, but for a time there, RIchard Rodriguez and Geoff Hartlieb were the only arms from the right side you would feel semi confident in.

Hey better late than never I suppose, regardless when he came in for the sixth inning he made quick work of the three batters he faced.

How about Gregory Polanco? I understand the Pirates are stuck with him next season, really I do. But he strikes out almost 50% of the time, quite literally can’t hit anything in the upper third or the outer third. When I say can’t hit, I mean can’t touch it. The next pitcher that throws Gregory a pitch not in those locations deserves his picture in Websters next to Fool.

So why does Polanco get such a long leash? More to the point, why would you prefer to continue watching someone self destruct at the plate than either Martin, Osuna or Oliva? I mean we already discussed that we have no choice really on Greg, so why waste the at bats right now on a guy who just can’t hit?

Derek Holland has been really good since heading to the bullpen and tonight he continued that by pitching another two scoreless innings, made it look easy too. Why didn’t they make this move much earlier? He has added velocity since the move and looks dominant. More importantly, why can’t they see the same thing could be true for Trevor Williams? 2 of the PIrates best 3 or 4 starts in the past two weeks have been from Cody Ponce, yet he continues to go back down after each one, Why?

Earlier in the game Hayes doubled and Bell singled him in but aside from that the Pirates once again were dormant at the plate, well until the 9th. What is that about? You can say they don’t quit but whatever approach they have in the 9th, how about bringing it to earlier in the games? This one is probably just dumb luck but it sure is weird.

Tonight the Bucs would stage a rally in the 9th again. Bell and Polanco (walk) would reach base against Amir Garrett after Colin Moran was robbed of a solo shot by Goodwin. Down to their last out, Shelton pinch hit Newman for JT Riddle who is another question himself. Newman would pop out to end the game.

4-1 Reds. Finale tomorrow.

News & Notes

  • Blake Cederlind made his MLB debut tonight in the 6th inning, pitching a 1-2-3 scoreless inning and hitting 98 on the gun.
  • Joe Musgrove only went 5 innings tonight, but he managed to strike out 8. Still just not good enough for what Musgrove was supposed to be for this club in 2020 and beyond.
  • Derek Holland pitched two more scoreless innings of relief and looked really good doing it.

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back; The Pirates Path is Somehow Very Familiar

The path to improvement is often paved with failed results. But you know that don’t you? You’ve watched that play out countless times over the years. Even when the club pulled everything together in the early to mid 2010’s the improvement was somehow not linear.

Think back, and when you do, think beyond the record. The Pirates had many developed internal talents but almost all of them had warts. Pedro Alvarez could hit the ball a mile but was just as likely to strike out and against a lefty wasn’t likely to make contact. His defense was passable until he inexplicably developed the yips throwing the baseball.

Neil Walker adapted well to second base and was an effective bat in the middle of the order. As a switch hitter, he heavily favored the left side to the point many wanted him to forgo batting from the right side at all.

Clint Barmes was an excellent defensive shortstop, but provided very little with the bat. He served as a veteran influence on a less than highly touted prospect named Mercer. I know Barmes wasn’t internally developed but sometimes the veteran influence is just as much a part of that development as the draft pick itself.

Gregory Polanco had raw tools and in stretches he showed how they could all add up to quite a formidable player. Aided by the benefit of time, we’ve seen that very much so is the definition of Polanco.

Andrew McCutchen was the Star, and he had his own mission and vision for what he could be. Not to say he was un-coach-able but he knew what success looked like to himself. He played where he thought he needed to in Center to make him the best outfielder he could be. When he got into slumps at the plate, he worked on his swing. Sure he took advice and tips but rest assured, nobody was more involved in Andrew’s development than Andrew.

Starling Marte was a five-tool player, but that didn’t mean he was ready made to be a star in MLB. His highs were very high, his lows were just as low, but Starling showed the most talented player isn’t always the best player. Obviously Marte was a really good player but the Pirates never managed to drag that power tool up to where they thought it could be and his occasional lack of focus bit him and the team more than you’d like.

First base was a revolving door for years, the Pirates were never really able to develop anyone and didn’t really acquire anyone either. Catching was brought in from an unlikely source, free agency, but Russ Martin was the field general.

AJ Burnett was acquired from the Yankees to help the rotation, but nobody including the Pirates organization expected what he would ultimately provide. Liriano was a washed up starting pitcher who signed with the Pirates because his value had fallen off so badly his options were limited. He obviously came up roses for a time and even convinced many that Ray Searage was a pitcher whisperer.

There were obviously more parts and pieces along the way but the moral of the story is really this; not every prospect is going to evolve into a superstar, not every player will reach the potential you think they have but it also doesn’t mean some of those players can’t be part of a winning ball club.

The Pirates got lucky by quickly remaking their pitching staff. That doesn’t happen for a club like Pittsburgh often enough to expect lightning to strike twice in a decade. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try.

When you look at the current roster there are similarities to be sure. Polanco is still the same player, sure he has more mileage but the question marks that plagued his career are still there. Hayes is a solid internal piece, we have no idea how his bat will evolve but he plays defense with passion and his speed and contact have given the Pirates a needed boost in the lineup. There are not many guarantees for who will and won’t be part of the final puzzle, but waiting for perfect or a lineup filled with number one draft picks and incredible international signings takes time.

I’ve heard arguments that Cherington walked into a better situation than Huntington did. It’s hard to argue if you look at the farm system alone, at least the rankings but we have the benefit of time to clearly be able to see what developed out of Huntington’s system he inherited. For instance, let’s take Jordy Mercer, nobody had him penciled in as a locked in starter as a prospect, and I’m sure some take the fact he did as an indictment rather than a pleasant surprise, but the fact remains the club was able to develop a steady glove and serviceable bat at a very important position.

Now jump to the Pirates current system, we all hear names like Cruz, Bolton, Priester, and fans are rightly excited about those guys, but what about the players who just get better every year and develop into someone who could make a real difference? When is the last time you heard about Rodolpho Castro beside when Craig wrote about him? How about Jared Oliva, Bligh Madris, Ji-Hwan Bae, Sammi Siani? Some of these guys will develop. Jared Oliva in fact is 24 years old and should push to make this roster next season, his speed will play, his defense will play and his bat has improved year over year.

My point is this, the issue with the Pirates is not so much that they have nobody in the farm system that will help the club, it’s that most of them are further away than they need to be in order to purge the MLB roster.

Let’s focus on what this system doesn’t have enough of, pitching and power. Cruz can probably show more power, his frame sure makes you feel that, Mason Martin has pop, Craig can hit homeruns (and strike out), Jack Herman is very young but can hit the long ball. That’s not much, and I’m reaching by calling Craig a prospect at this point.

The pitching is actually a bit more scary, Bolton is really all that’s close unless you want to count Brubaker and Ponce. The lower levels are looking much better with Tanaj Thomas, Priester and Malone, but let’s be honest, Thomas is still a relatively unknown to the common fan. When I say common fan, I don’t mean to imply uneducated or ‘casual’, I simply mean there are a whole lot of people who only know the guys they’ve heard Greg Brown talk about on the broadcast or saw Bob Pompeani talk about as part of a trade package. Maybe they only know the number 1 picks.

Some people have skipped over an entire generation of future Pirates to appoint Peguero and Nick Gonzales the next middle infield, talking about their advanced development. They’re both really solid prospects, but that’s exactly what they are, prospects. Nobody the Bucs picked up in the draft last year is one of those guys who jumps from college to an MLB stage. Can they have shorter development calendars? Sure, but shorter doesn’t mean Kevin Newman should feel them scraping his back.

To build this correctly the Pirates need to do things to maximize some of the areas they lack. The pitching in the lower levels can be really solid, but that’s 2 or 3 years away realistically, and that’s not a prediction of when they’ll get here as much as the first window I really feel confident saying some of them will have actual impact.

The reality is our number 2 overall prospect Mitch Keller should be making an impact right now, but you never know how it’s going to go once they get here. He has nothing more to gain by pitching in AAA, he dominated those batters much like Tyler Glasnow before him. At some point you need to let them struggle in MLB to gain their footing. That’s why you can’t pick the date Priester arrives as the window opening wide, he won’t be what we want him to be most likely until he’s had a good season in the Bigs.

Even jumping back to the earlier window I referenced, If Jameson Taillon doesn’t have TJ on his way to MLB, he and Gerrit Cole time up and wind up on that team together and the Pirates probably have that one more big part of the rotation they needed to pass wild card territory and win a division.

I’ve said it myself, the cupboard is bare. Well it’s not, you just need to dig behind the boxes of elbow noodles and canned soup to find more ingredients you long since forgot buying.

None of that makes the current roster easier to watch, but it does show that you can’t always tell who will emerge. I remember 2009 and 2010 being so mad watching this team sign players like Jason Grilli and trading the only guys doing anything positive on the club. Is it the same path? No, of course not, but the similarities are there and this off season will start to show the direction the club will take to improve the product.

These are the controllable elements, the things that can be done regardless of money. You can draft, trade and develop with little cash infused. You can’t control the owner, but I will say last time, he spent. He allowed Neal Huntington to get and pay for AJ Burnett. He was fine with the Pirates outbidding the Yankees for Russel Martin. He didn’t stop his GM from signing Liriano or extending him.

The biggest problem is, it’s hard to find many they should have retained and didn’t. Let me save you time, JA Haap. It was time for Cutch, Walker, Mercer, Harrison, Liriano, Alvarez, and Martin. None of those players have been what they were, in fact many are just about out of baseball. Polanco will add to that list very soon and it won’t be because Nutting didn’t want to spend It’ll be because he played himself out of town.

I don’t say this to pretend he would have kept all those guys if they were still in position to continue playing at a high level, the dude’s cheap, I’m not trying to pretend he’s sitting there with full pockets waiting to spend, but at some point the GM just didn’t provide many cases to even ask.

Maybe you think that’s Josh Bell, I’m not so sure but many do believe he is exactly the type you should keep around long term. They could do it if they wanted to, and yes Boras will deal with them and has, but is he closer to Polanco or Marte? Gerrit Cole was certainly one of those, but he wanted to leave and that’s part of the equation too. Marte had more to give, he too said he wanted out. Bottom line, find me someone worth keeping that wants to stay and then we’ll discuss how none of this matters because Nutting won’t keep any of them.

Payroll is low. Payroll will be low, until such a time as locking down solutions comes up, just like last time. Instead of maxing out at 110 Million or so, we’re probably looking at 130 or so, inflation y’all. Look for that to start with an extension of Reynolds, or maybe a Keller once he’s shown himself to be part of the future. The payroll will uptick from there and peak. I’d love for it to stay there while they interchange pieces but the reality of this economic system means it probably won’t. Tampa is Tampa for this very reason, and while I’d love to think it’s a model that can be copied and implemented by anyone, it sure hasn’t been so far by anyone.

The future is murky but believe it or not, it isn’t doom and gloom either. They will improve, if for no other reason than that’s what young players do. But pretending you know the roster composition in 2023 is just as foolish as trying to pick Derek Shelton’s Sunday lineup in advance.

The Pirates Drop The Doubleheader And Fall Even Further Into The Basement

A little over a week ago the Pirates ended a four game series with the Reds that began with a doubleheader, which made today feel like deja vu as Pittsburgh began another four game set with Cincinnati in a 2020 special; back to back seven inning contests. In the first of two a familiar face would be on the bump for both teams as the “29th Man”, Cody Ponce started his third doubleheader in a row, while Trevor Bauer took the mound for the Reds, with his last appearance against the Pirates coming in the second seven inning game on September 4th.

After his first start of 5.2 scoreless innings against St. Louis, Ponce had been roughed up by Cincinnati for three earned runs in 4 innings of work. Bauer on the other hand gave up only one earned run in his 6 innings versus Pittsburgh, but was awarded the loss due to some less than optimal defensive support in a 4-3 loss.

The outing for Ponce was more like the first start of his big league career, with his lone mistake coming in the bottom of the 4th: a line drive solo homer by Joe Votto to left centerfield field. For a while it looked like this would result in his second loss of the season as Bauer proceeded to strike out 11 Pirates batters through the first 6 innings, allowing just one hit, a single, to the first batter of the game, Erik Gonzalez. However, in the top of the 7th, Colin Moran, led off with a solo homer of his own. Next Josh Bell singled and Bryan Reynold struck out, Bauer’s 12th of the game, but Bauer still got into trouble as Kevin Newman singled. With two on and one out, he was lifted from the game in favor of Raisel Iglesias, who set down pinch hitter Gregory Polanco and John Ryan Murphy on strikes.

Heading into the bottom of the 7th with extra innings staring them straight in the eyes, the Reds first two hitters were retired by Sam Howard. Jose Garcia kept them alive, bringing pinch hitter Tyler Stephenson, the young rookie catcher with only 10 Major League at bats under his belt, to the plate. With a 1-0 count, Stephenson took a 85 mph hanging slider over the left centerfield wall for a 3-1 Reds victory in the first half of the doubleheader.

Before the second game even began the biggest storyline for Pirates Fans was the return of former top prospect, Mitch Keller, to the mound. Keller had been placed on the IL with left side discomfort on August 2nd after having only made 2 starts on the season. Now we all knew that this was probably going to be a shortened start, but at least it gave us something to look forward to; and through the first inning we weren’t too disappointed. After a leadoff walk, there was a strike’m out/throw’m out from Keller and Stallings, followed by a fly out. However, then things took a turn for the worse as another leadoff walk turned into a two run homer for Brian Goodwin. Joey Votto added a solo homer, his second of the doubleheader, in the bottom of the third and that was it for Keller’s return.

Through the first 4 and a half innings the Pirates did the best they could to keep in close, even grabbing the lead for a half a second in the top of the 4th on a Ke’Bryan Hayes 2 run home run. However, it would all be for not as the Reds scored 3 in the bottom frame, all on a home run from Mike Moustakas off of Nick Turley. Even the reliable Geoff Hartlieb struggled on the night; issuing four walks and hitting a batter, which resulted in two additional earned runs.

In the end the Pirates had to be glad the game was only 7 innings, as they fell 9-4 in a long day of disheartening baseball. But, they are right back at it tomorrow, and for the next 13 days in a row, as Joe Musgrove (0-4, 5.40 ERA) is scheduled to take the mound against Michael Lorenzen (1-1, 5.23 ERA) at 6:40 PM EST.

News and Notes:

  • Cody Ponce pitches 4 innings and 63 pitches. He allowed only one run on one hit, while striking out three and walking two. This is the third time Ponce has filled in for a spot start; doing very well in two of them and serviceable in the other, which could be enough to earn him at the very least, an audition for the starting rotation in Spring Training 2021.
  • Colin Moran hit his team leading 8th homer of the season.
  • The Pirates were 0 for 6 with RISP. This is an easy way to lose close games.
  • As a staff the Pirates, coming into today’s action, had given up 1.55 homers per 9 innings, tied for 5th highest in MLB. Two homers in game one equals 3 runs. 3 homers in the second equaled 6 additional runs.
  • Josh Bell has 3 home runs in the last 5 games and a total of 7 on the year. He is also on an 8 game hitting streak.
  • Although Keller gave up 2 homers in his first game back, it was nice to see the three strikeouts to go along with one of them in the bottom of the third.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to hit for power, which is turning this doubter into a possible believer.

Pirates News & Views 9-14-2020

News

  • The Pirates won back to back games on Sunday against the Reds and Tuesday against the White Sox. The really rare part for the Bucs was the walk off fashion in which they pulled it off.
  • Mitch Keller returns to the mound today in Cincinnati and will pitch game two of the double header.
  • The Pirates explained a couple things about Chad Kuhl. The outing prior to yesterday Chad would only last 3 innings, this was explained as a scheduled back down. This is a new fad in rehabbing pitchers, the goal is to build up to a number or pitches or innings and around 75% through the process one outing is cut back. Now, what happens to that plan when your next outing is a stinker? We’ll find out.
  • Josh Bell has a modest 6 game hitting streak, that’s not news worthy but his 5 game streak of no swings and misses is. When Josh is recognizing pitches he takes bad balls and makes contact in the zone with authority. That’s where he is right now and nothing could have more impact on the club this off season then Josh Bell looking like he can heading into it.
  • The Pirates have three fewer wins than their closest competitors for the worst record in the league. The latest rumblings have MLB sticking with a straight record based draft order and that’s obviously good news.
  • In case anyone missed it, Mason Martin is now ranked as the 10th Best 1st Baseman in MiLB according to MLB Pipeline.

Views

  • No matter what you think your team can be, if your two best players don’t hit, you won’t win. The Pirates are hardly alone in having their stars under perform but the Pirates don’t share the buffer many clubs enjoy. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
  • I don’t tell people how to fan, but I’ll never understand people who comment about Bob Nutting on every post. Nobody who covers the club is blind to the fact he doesn’t spend money, but what are we supposed to do? How many pieces can be written about that fact? Get over it and discuss what is actually happening or don’t but please let the adults have conversations. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
  • Ever hear about addition by subtraction? Sure you have, especially if you’re a Steelers fan who heard it daily when the team moved on from Bell and Brown. Well, nice guys or not the Pirates need to embrace a little of that formula. Regardless of return the club desperately needs to move on from some players who just won’t help this club win, now or ever. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
  • I’m glad to see Mitch Keller healthy and able to pitch again this season, but I question what is really to be gained in the likely outcome of 2 or 3 short starts this season. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
  • I often hear fans say that the Pirates getting a high draft pick won’t matter because Bob Nutting won’t spend the money to sign them. The Pirates have spent more money on the draft than any other team period over the last decade. And if you’re already worried about losing this draftee to free agency 7 or 8 years from now perhaps you are discounting that the Pirates would reap the benefit of 6 years of a very good ball player first. Nutting isn’t going anywhere, and honestly, it’s just false that they don’t extend any of their players. Yes, even Boras Clients. – GM (@garymo2007 on Twitter)
  • Chad Kuhl has given up one home run in all 7 of his starts. He now possesses a 5.50 ERA. And people were expecting a haul for him at the trade deadline.-Craig (aka Bucs In The Basement)
  • There are only four players whose jobs I feel are safe going into next year, if a few of them don’t get traded first; a 23 year old third baseman with 32 MLB at bats under his belt, a 30 year old catcher that many fans wanted replaced before the season began, a utility man that NH’s scouts were pounding the table for and a former first round pick that was a part of the Gerrit Cole Trade. -Craig (aka Bucs In The Basement)