Steel City Pirates

The Pirates Bats Wake Up In 7-2 Victory Over The Brewers

The Pirates came into tonight’s contest looking to end a four game skid and realistically get anything they could going in the right direction. The Brewers on the other hand had their sights set on climbing back to .500 and remaining in the playoff picture in the NL Central. For Pittsburgh right hander Chad Kuhl would make his second straight start without the planned “piggyback” in his sixth appearance of the season. Opposing him was former second round draft pick for the Houston Astros, Adrian Houser, who was making his fifth start in Milwaukee’s rotation this year. Both men had come into game with solid numbers on the season, however, Houser had struggled during his last two starts, allowing 4 to Twins and 3 runs to the Cubs, while Kuhl has his own troubles against Cincinnati in his last start, giving up 3 runs. In each of these games the two young hurlers only made it through 5 innings before they were ultimately removed.

Through the first 3 innings on Friday night Kuhl and Houser’s lines were almost identical as they both allowed only one run on solo shots from Ben Gamel and Bryan Reynolds. In the 4th Kuhl’s strong start continued, thanks in part to a diving catch by Reynolds to rob Christian Yelich of at least a base hit. Houser was not so lucky as the Pirates pounded him with a barrage of singles, giving them 4-1 lead entering the 5th.

After 84 pitches and 5 innings Kuhl was lifted having only given up the 1 run on 2 total hits. His swing and miss stuff was not as on point as it had been in the past, striking out a single batter while walking 3 in the effort. He was replaced by Sam Howard and Geoff Hartlieb in succession. Howard would last only 2/3 of an inning, leaving 2 on and 2 out for Hartlieb. He would eventually work out of the jam, but not before he made things truly interesting by walking the bases full. The 7th inning was less eventful for Hartlieb as he retired the Brewers in order, striking out Keston Hiura swinging for the third out.

Houser stayed in through the 7th, not permitting the Pirates to score another run, but the damage had already been done. His final line was 4 runs on 9 hits with 1 walk and 3 strikeouts on 98 pitches. It would be up to the Brewers bullpen to hold Pittsburgh’s batters in check if they would have any hope of a late inning comeback.

To open the 8th Christian Yelich tried to start the rally as he homered off Richard Rodriguez to left center field, bringing the Brewers within two. However, the Pirates has other ideas as they scored 3 in the bottom of the ninth on a two run triple by Reynolds, followed by an single off the bat of Cole Tucker; his third of the night.

Keone Kela was called upon for the 3rd time since joining the Pirates after being activated on August 13th, none of which have been a save opportunity. Kela would only face one batter, giving up a single, before he was removed from the game with tightness in his forearm. Recently acquired Tyler Bashlor came in to make his second appearance, immediately inducing a double play and a ground out to end the game. And for the first time in what seems like forever, the Pirates got to Raise The Jolly Roger!

The Pirates will look to string a couple of wins together as they once again take on Brewers at PNC. Derek Holland will take the mound for Pittsburgh against Josh Lindblom. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 EST.

Yinzer Reactions: The Pirates Get Swept By The Indians

I’m back after a little bit of a hiatus thanks to Pittsburgh’s series with Cincinnati getting cut short by a positive COVID-19 from a Red’s player. Not sure it was worth recapping two polar opposite games, but in hindsight it probably would have been better than looking back on the Pirates most recent series against the Tribe. After losing the first game in extras, the Bucco bats fell silent; which makes it hard to think about any positive takeaways and forces me to resist going full on Yinzer. Almost every time I come up with something good that happened, it is almost instinctively followed up with a yeah but; another impulse that I try my best to resist. Once again, as always, I will list 5 positive and 5 negative takeaways, with the pessimistic views starting to hold more and more weight as the season progresses.

Positive Takeaways

1) Kevin Newman is currently riding a 9 game hitting streak. I know he doesn’t hit the ball very hard as I pointed out in my article on him a couple of days ago, but he does get hits and gets on base, which is more than I can say for a lot of the Pirates hitters right now. During his hitting streak Newman has raised his average from .167 to .292 and his OPS from .461 to a nearly respectable .704.

2) Jacob Stallings has quietly put together a streak of his own. Stallings has at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games. This has skyrocketed his average from .118 to .289, good for third best on the team. Sure only one of hits during this time has been for extra bases, but once again beggars can’t be choosers.

3) Steven Brault has remained solid. After a disastrous outing against the Tigers back on August 7th, Brault has not allowed a run in his last two outings; allowing only 2 hits and striking out 4 over 7 innings of work.

4) Geoff Hartlieb and Brandon Waddell continue to be two of the most reliable pitchers out of the Pirates Bullpen. Hartlieb has only allowed 1 earned run in his last 4 appearances, while striking out 7 in 4 innings. Waddell pitches two scoreless innings on Thursday night to keep the Pirates in the game. He struck out 2 in his first outing of the year against the Reds last Wednesday.

5) Nick Mears took advantage of his second call up to the bigs with a nice showing in the second game of the series. The young right hander came into the game on Wednesday in a tough spot, with runners on 1st and 2nd in the top of the 8th and 3 runs already in. He promptly struck out Delino DeShields to avoid any more damage. Mears then struck out another in the 9th and induced a double play to allow the Pirates the chance for a comeback in the bottom half of the inning.

Negative Takeaways

1) The Pirates struck out a total of 37 times in the 3 game series with the Indians. I know the Pirates had to face two of MLB’s current best in Carraso, Civale and especially Bieber during this series, but they sure didn’t do themselves any favors; looking absolutely out of sorts at the plate by swinging at pitches outside the zone and leaving the bat on their shoulders for the ones that hit their marks.

2) Base running blunders and unforced errors are becoming commonplace. Erik Gonzalez caught off second in one instance and making a terrible attempt to steal third in another. Josh Bell missing his target at home and Jacob Stallings failing to adjust. These are only 3 instances in a long line mishaps that have plagued the Pirates all season long.

3) Gregory Polanco. It’s pretty sad when your biggest highlight of the year is some jabroni jumping in the river to recover one of your foul balls. On the season Polanco is hitting a dismal .070 in 43 at bats, tallying 22 strikes and only 3 extra base hits.

4) Dovydas Neverauskas has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 3 appearances. After not allowing a single run in his first 5.1 innings of work, Neverauskas has completely imploded; capped off by his performance on Wednesday night when he came into a scoreless contest in the top of the 6th. He proceeded to give up 3 runs on a walk and two hits, including a home run to Carlos Santana with 2 on and 2 out.

5) The Pirates are currently an MLB a league worst 4-17, good for a .190 Winning Percentage. There is no way to sugar coat it. I don’t care about the shortened season, all the injuries and a first year coaching staff. This is just miserable, plain and simple.

Obviously there were more negatives that I could have pointed out as I struggled to narrow it down to only 5. Just as I struggled to find 5 positives in a sea of ineptitude. Hopefully, things will start to get better, but I would be lying if I said I was optimistic about the remaining 39 games for the Pirates.

You’re the Pirates GM, What Would You Have Done?

There aren’t a whole lot of people covering the Pittsburgh Pirates who step up to defend Bob Nutting, with good reason, he’s responsible for the club being where it is right now. He handcuffed his yet un-hired President and GM just by waiting too long to let the former front office go alone.

That said, as cheap as they are, this roster has a whole lot of things stuck in place. Let’s go through some choices you could make up and down the club and see how much better we would have done shall we?

Plus, so many of us have had to play teacher this year, who doesn’t like a good multiple-choice quiz, will you score higher than Cherington?

Starting Pitching
1. Picking Up Archer’s Option – The choice is simple, pick up Archer’s option for 9M or let him walk. Oh, it’s easy to say let him walk knowing what we know now, but when the choice was made the thinking was 9M is nothing for a pitcher who at the very least is a veteran starter in the league and let’s be honest, you can’t trade him if you don’t retain him.
A. Let Him Walk
B. Pick Up His Option (Dealing him completely on the table)

2. Believe in Joe – Joe is playing in his first season of arbitration and is under team control for two more seasons. He’s shown flashes but hasn’t put it all together more than a few times. Again, if you want to deal him, you have to retain him.
               A. Let Him Walk
               B. Take Him to Arbitration (or sign a one-year tender)
               C. Extend Him beyond Arbitration

3. Which Williams is He? – Trevor too is in his first year of arbitration and has shown a half year of brilliance bracketed by mediocre to below par performance. I think he deems the same options as Joe. Broken record, have to retain someone you might want to deal.
               A. Let Him Walk
               B. Take Him to Arbitration (or sign a one-year tender)
               C. Extend Him beyond Arbitration

4. Mitch Keller Time? – Mitch Keller is one of the few on this club you could truly envision being part of the answer one day.
               A. Start him, and Count on him
               B. Start him, but have a viable option if he falters
               C. Ease him in potentially via the pen

5. Steven Brault – Steven is better than his tools would lead you to believe but is he a starter? He’s entering his first year or arbitration next year.
               A. Start him, Steven has earned it and we need to see what he can do
               B. Bullpen, he could do really well as a long man
               C. No guarantees, Steven isn’t one of the best 13 pitchers in the organization

6. Chad Kuhl – Chad is in his first year of arbitration, so much of the mess in this franchise is about the missed time injuries from Kuhl and more so Taillon, but I digress. Kuhl is returning from Tommy John surgery and his path is a bit murky.
               A. Kuhl Deserves a chance to start but be ready to call him a BP arm
               B. Convert Kuhl to a Back-End BP guy
               C. If he’s one of the starters, we’re in trouble

7. Remember Brubaker? – Still on his rookie deal and sitting on options JT was actually ahead of Keller on the call up list before running into injury trouble himself. He’s been a starter his entire pro career and has upside.
               A. C’mon, he starts in AAA
               B. Give him a real shot at the rotation
               C. Start him in the BP, there isn’t room, but we like what he brings

8. Do I Even Consider Jamo? – There isn’t much about Jamo that matters for 2020, but I also can’t call him a lock to come back in 2021 looking like his old self, if not better. Coming back from two TJs is at least long odds.
               A. I can’t trade him, I can’t even play him, But I think he could be a big piece in 2021
               B. He’s always been a starter, but maybe he’ll come back a BP arm
               C. As soon as this guy shows his arm is attached, I’ll have him on the block

That’s it for the perceived starters, AKA who was already here. But there is more to cover, depth was tested in 2019 and failed the test, badly. Cherington ultimately chose to not rest on these seven options but we have options just like he did.

9. Who Else in the System Could Step Up – There is almost no way he saw it as plentiful, but if you think it’s just for an emergency there are a few.
               A. Nobody, go get someone, a rental like Lyles, he probably won’t have to pitch anyway
               B. Bolton could use more seasoning, but let’s let him cut his teeth
               C. Go big, this team is good enough to get a big arm

That about does it for the starting pitching. I’m not trying to prove anything really here, as much as helping you see the real options there. It’s easy to practice revisionist history and blame Nutting’s wallet, which let’s face it, is how we got here. But when met with the reality of making a conscious choice to let a player go without taking a shot at getting something in return, you start to see the very real rock and hard place going on.

Now, I guess this is kind of disingenuous to not frame the entire conversation with one real big choice first and I quizzed you on the pitching because I think it’s the one factor above all that educates this next decision.

Where Are We?
1. Based on The Pitching I Have, When Can We Compete? – And I very much so mean this to be organizationally speaking. Look up and down at who’s here, who’s coming and when does it all come together.
               A. Now, if these guys stay healthy, we have a real shot to be pretty good
               B. This doesn’t add up, even if I add a big Free Agent, its just not good enough
               C. I like the young pitching, but I need more so I’m going to have to make moves
               D. All of the Above

Pretty easy to see this being a less than straightforward choice. I hesitate to put years on the table but I’m sure that’s part of the internal discussion, identifying a timeframe he really thinks is realistic. I always base this on pitching because without it, nothing matters. Even in the homerun era, the game is still won and lost on the mound. I’m sure a real GM, rather than a fan-turned writer takes his decision making far deeper, but to me, the rotation opens and closes windows in a small to mid-market environment.

Once you’ve decided which path to take up there it leads you to the fielders. Depending on what you choose you’re looking for different reasons. For instance, if you chose A, you probably want to see based on what’s here, where are your upgrade areas? If you chose B or C, you have some important decisions to make and it largely depends on when you think the window opens. Some guys just won’t come up, its hardly important to look past whatever you consider the core, everything else is moveable parts or too young to matter on the trade market.

So, let’s start up by looking at what the perceived core was, way back when Cherington would have needed to make his decisions.

The Core?
1. Gregory Polanco – Man if it’s overall talent you’re looking for, not many can compete, more importantly, Gregory has a very hard to move contract unless he’s good, and then would you want to?
               A. Time to move on, Greg will never get it. Eat the 22.5 Million in dead money
               B. I don’t care what our payroll is, I can’t make one of my first moves to eat 22.5 Million
               C. Once Eckstein gets a full season with Polanco, healthy, I have to believe he’ll come around D. Please, anyone, make an offer
               E. Extend Gregory, this is the kind of guy we want to build around beyond 2023

2. Josh Bell – Which JB shows up? The monster that terrorized the league in the first half or the second half where all he terrorized was Hurdle writing his name in the clean-up spot.
               A. The Power is there, and it looks like last season they figured out his swing
               B. He’s not the worst first baseman I’ve ever seen, but if the bat is there, so what
               C. This is the biggest chip I have to play, no way he signs, solves more problems in what he returns
               D. At some point this club needs to make a statement, I want to extend this guy. Even if I have to Overpay
               E. I’d love to keep Bell around, I’d be willing to pay, but I just don’t think he’s good enough to be THAT guy

3. Bryan Reynolds – There is no such thing of course, but prior to the season nobody was closer to can’t miss
               A. This could be my Christian Yelich, if I want to move him, big jump in rebuild
               B. I’m not trading my one true star with that much control. There isn’t enough upside out there to consider it
4. Starling Marte – Clearly the best weapon on this club, but he isn’t happy, and I can get some much-needed prospect capital.
               A. Keep Marte and try one more time
               B. Move Marte for prospects knowing it leaves a gaping hole, and what that means

All the Rest?
1. The Next Level – This is a mix of players. They can’t be the core really, too early to really decide, but let’s see what we have.
               A. We have to be one of the richest teams in the league for middle infielders, I can deal from real strength here, nobody is untouchable
               B. I leave open the door for any of these to be part of my core
               C. Trade as many as we can, the future is then not now
               D. All of the Above

The questions go on from here, and there is absolutely no way we could cover all of them. If you consider these to be the most important ones or even if you have a few of your own. The point is, answering these questions show exactly why Cherington didn’t add much, didn’t move much and decided to take a flyer on 2020. So much youth, so much control.

Pirates fall 2-0; Strikeout 16 Times as Pitiful Offense Continues

Shane Bieber was the story tonight, just as Civale was in last night’s contest. The contrast was clear, Bieber cut through the lineup for six innings and eleven strikeouts only running into trouble on the basepaths once. The Pirates starting with Trevor Williams struggled but kept things clean only surrendering one run until the 8th as Chris Stratton went walk,single,walk to load the bases with nobody out.

He got a grounder to first and Bell’s throw home pulled Stallings up the line and ever so slightly off the plate making it 2-0 and leaving the bases loaded. Gonzalez got an opportunity and they get the out at home this time. Even Stratton continued the trend of tap dancing out of the erratic pitching to only surrender one run.

A scoreless top of the ninth from Turley and the Pirates came up with Riddle, Tucker and Dyson for the bottom half. So Shelton turned to Reynolds to pinch hit for Riddle, batting from the right side against Hand and he struck out looking. Tucker remained and flew out to center. Murphy pinch hit for Dyson and appropriately struck out ending the game 2-0.

Now, that’s the game story, time for some discussion points. I’m sorry to break it out like this but there were so many strange things this game had to offer I just didn’t want to veer off subject repeatedly.

Let’s start with Josh Bell, he had a base hit tonight, but in his first at bat he looked so jumpy I thought for a moment he might jump to the other batters box. To make matters worse, the broadcast cut to a scene of Eckstein and Shelton ‘coaching’ him about his swing and stance prior to the game. If they really told him to go up there and dance like he needed to pee, I’ve never seen such a thing. That’s something you allow if some kid comes up and he’s done it all his life and it’s always worked for him, even then you look for the first slump to beat it out of him. Unfathomable.

Colin Moran got ejected for telling an ump he made a terrible call. Now, I know usually there’s crowd noise, but I’ve heard FAR worse. I think the umps are becoming very aware of everything that can be heard on the field. What a joke of an ejection. It was a bad call, and I rarely critique check swings but for good measure the same ump had the same call against Frazier later in the evening. Both were just no way swings, period.

Osuna hasn’t played much, tonight he got his second start in a row. He went 0-4 after recording a single yesterday. I don’t know what he did to get in the dog house but these two games aren’t likely to dig him out.

The offense faced really good pitching the last two nights, but the at bats aren’t even competitive. There’s a reason hitters try to get into hitter’s counts, because they work, this club as a whole is just not making it look hard for opposing hurlers.

Is that enough weird for you? Much of this lineup, ok not specifically the one they used tonight, but most of what they returned on offense really were nothing short of outstanding in 2019. Can’t blame all of it on this shortened season, at some point a few of these guys that we thought of as solutions, maybe aren’t. Don’t get me wrong, I want to see Reynolds hit his way out of this, and I trust he will although he sure looks frustrated which doesn’t suit the normally stoic young man. Bell looks like he’s reaching for air as he falls off a cliff.

Dreams of trading people at the deadline, at least from the offensive side of the ball, should probably be tempered a bit. I personally don’t think it will be all that active anyway, but right now you’d be hard pressed to find anyone you wouldn’t be selling low.

Pirates Lose 6-1; Civale Shines for the Tribe

A pitcher’s duel. That’s what Joe Block referred to this game as when we pulled into the bottom of the second. I mean, through five it turned out to be true. Steven Brault threw 33 pitches in the first inning and found himself to put up five scoreless frames. The Indians countered with Aaron Civale, the backward movement on his fastball looked like a screwball and the Pirates were stymied like they’d never seen such a thing. He would cruise through 8.1 innings of shutout ball before finally relinquishing a run in the 9th.

Dovydas Neverauskas took over in the sixth for Steven Brault and gave up a three run shot, fair this time, to Carlos Santana giving the tribe a 3-0 lead.

The real story of this game and most of the season was the continued struggles of the Pirates counted upon bats. Lets have a roll call, Reynolds .185, Bell .205, Polanco .075, and Frazier .185. Civale is no joke, but these batting averages are. Trading players, keeping players, rebuilding, doesn’t matter what you call it, not a single positive thing can come from all four of these players being awful at the same time.

We’re hearing about Polanco’s exit velocity and when he hits the ball it’s true, he is hitting it hard. Think about this though, half of the swings Gregory has taken this year caught nothing but air.

Maybe it’s bad luck for these guys. Well lets see, how about we do another role call but this time we’ll look at xBA (Expected Batting Average) I like this stat because it takes a whole bunch of data and boils it down to what they should produce. It really takes luck out of the equation. Reynolds .185 (.236 xBA), Bell .205 (.228 xBA), Polanco .075 (.163 xBA), and Frazier .185 (.277 xBA).

Ouch. The pitching has largely settled down, probably actually outperforming their paygrade a bit if I’m honest. None of it matters if these four guys continue to put this kind of work on tape. You can’t get around it, and you can’t afford to sit all of them.

Losing is going to happen a whole lot this season, but being shut down on offense entirely, well the Pirates could have two Nolan Ryan’s and 3 Randy Johnson’s and they’d lose just as much. I’m not trying to say the pitching is good, but I am saying it’s steadied itself enough to win some of these games by only putting up pedestrian offensive numbers.

Tyler Bashlor made his Pirates debut and gave up 3 more runs after walking the bases loaded and striking out a couple. Nick Mears returned to the mound and took care of the ninth.

Civale was impressive and utterly in control all night. 4 base runners all night and not a single one made it to second until Tucker led off the 9th with a double. Kevin Newman extended his hitting streak to 7 games with a ringing single. Josh Bell knocked in the only run on a sac fly. But Civale finishes a rare complete game as the Tribe wins 6-1.

Do yourself a favor and watch some out of market games when you can. I promise you every other team doesn’t have starting rotations full of all stars.

There is Nothing to be Gained from Bad Coaching

No, I’m not going to go ape on Derek Shelton and blast his resume. I’m not going to assume close to 20 games is enough to form fact-based opinion on the capabilities of the man. I will say, so far, he hasn’t done a good job.

Even if you believe Shelton has been told to downplay winning as a priority, I’m not seeing the vision. I don’t mean something as simple as not pinch hitting for Gregory Polanco with men on base against two lefty’s he would never hit. Oliver Perez is going to get Greg out 9 out of 10 times and Brad Hand is just as likely. I mean you have Osuna on the bench, last year’s league best pinch hitter, but I guess if you’re intent is to keep Polanco in there to ‘evaluate’ his ability in this area, ok. I might ask though, why?

It’s no league secret that Polanco struggles against left-handed pitching, I mean, this season his overall average is .075. He’s a career .249 hitter largely aided by Clint Hurdle shielding him from left handers as much as possible. Maybe he wasn’t shielding, maybe he was coaching. Maybe there’s nothing left to learn here.

Baffling.

How does the evaluation season match up with playing Jarrod Dyson in center? Is he better than Tucker in center? Oh God yes, and if you’re waiting for that statement to not be true to make the transition to Tucker more regularly, probably going to be waiting a while. Playing Dyson to shop him in a trade is silly, he’s put plenty on tape, no surprises left with him. He’s going to steal some bases, but not get on enough to make it matter. He’ll play excellent defense and aside from that be a prototypical 8- or 9-hole hitter. If someone wants what Dyson does, they don’t need to have seen him do it wearing black and gold. So, what are we doing here?

This isn’t even sour grapes for wanting Tucker to play, if I’m honest I don’t find him to be the best option for young guys that can play the position. I’d prefer to see Martin or Oliva splitting time with Tucker if you aren’t going to outright give him a shot as the starter.

Again, baffling.

Last night in the bottom of the ninth, as has happened so many times this season, I had questions. The first one was when Dyson managed to get on base, why do you need to bunt him over? This is one of the better base stealers in the game, Stallings isn’t a good bunter, and if you believe in analytics it’s flawed strategy.

Even so, I get it, old school small ball, and hey, it worked, purely by accident, but it worked. Now Dyson is at second and Frazier is up, what do they have him do, you guessed it, bunt. Not surprising to anyone watching from home he missed, and Dyson took liberties to stray too far off second, getting picked off. Now you have the slow-footed Stallings at 1^st and Frazier is swinging away. He flew out to right which would have accomplished exactly what the bunt intended, if Dyson were in fact still a duck on the pond rather than a mope in the dugout.

That is really where last night’s ballgame was lost. Newman came up and roped what would have been another walk off single. Blame Dyson if you want, he surely deserves it, but it shouldn’t overshadow the questionable choices on the way there.

The coaching questions don’t end with Shelton, I mean of course the buck stops there but let’s keep going. This club decided to purge the management team, but two old faces remained. One was Joey Cora, and let’s face it, he hasn’t been put in position to wave too many runners this season, even so he’s had a couple questionable sends. More alarmingly, he is still in charge of coaching the fielders. Watching this team play last season, did you feel this was a strong suit of the club? Of course not, so why no change there?

Why bring that back? I still see fielders making poor decisions. Tripe baffling.

What about Rick Eckstein? Here’s a guy that the hitters lobbied heavily to retain. After last year I have to admit, totally on board. Keeping him in place was not with the intention of turning Erik Gonzalez into the teams All Star representative believe it or not, it was to keep Bell improving, keep Reynolds being Reynolds and hope for steady improvement everywhere else.

Bell is all over the place. No consistent approach, not even a consistent stance. Chasing and in general looking out of sorts. Reynolds has visibly changed his stance from last season to this, why? I mean these are the guys who went to bat for Eckstein so to speak, and now they look like they’ve regressed.

Bottom line, if you’re new coach is a former hitting coach, it’s at least a little weird to not let him hire his own guy. I have no way of knowing what’s going on in that clubhouse but if Eckstein was a big part of the success last season with the bats, he has to be just as much a part of the utter failure this season. Are we trying to create the power out of nowhere success of the Twins? No matter what they’re trying to do, is there any meaningful reason to let Josh Bell continue to go up there swinging as hard as he can from whatever stance he chooses?

Oscar Marin didn’t get much time with this staff, and that was before half of them were injured. He worked with Williams in the off season as they lived fairly close to one another, and there are no miracles for the Del Pozo’s of the world. As bad as the pitching has been, I honestly don’t know much I can assign to him. I guess analytically speaking the spin rates all look up, but its also a different mix of pitchers.

Even if you believe winning isn’t the goal, individual improvement needs to take place, and there is no good way to do that if you intentionally avoid trying to win. If the Pirates lose every game the rest of the season, it would be nice to feel like ‘hey, if they had more talent…’. Instead I’m left to wonder if there is an amount of talent that could actually get the job done with the way I’m watching the team be coached.

I’d like to believe they lost 6-3 last night because the Indians are a better team with better talent, and that’s certainly true. Instead I point back to three or four tangible decisions that would have actually helped evaluate some younger players, you know the stated goal, that could have won the ballgame.

It was absolutely time for Hurdle and Searage to go, I’m not pining for the glorious past. In 9 seasons of watching Clint manage the team I don’t think I had as many questions about what the management is thinking as I’ve had in this roughly one month of Shelton’s tenure.

If you’ve read my work for any length of time, you’ve seen I try to always see every angle on stuff like this. My frustration with Shelton so far, I can’t avoid his decisions contradicting themselves. I can’t imagine how the players feel.

Kevin Newman is Defying the Odds OR At Least Disproving the Data

For anyone that studies advanced metrics there almost always seems to be a pattern, a reason to justify why a player is struggling, data to show how improvements were made, basis for an upcoming hot or cold streak and a way to determine how well a player is performing; among many other things. Teams use them to identify players they would like to acquire, to develop the ones they have and even to deploy them in a manner that is most likely to help the individual to produce to their potential. However, as with the use of any type of statistic there are bound to be some flaws or more simply put, exceptions to the rule.

At the end of last season Kevin Newman stood near the top of the leaderboard in batting average for all of Major League Baseball at .308; surrounded by players like Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz and teammate, Bryan Reynolds. In the beginning of the year he was a little bit of an afterthought as Erik Gonzalez had secured the starting shortstop position and super utility man Adam Frazier dug in at second base. Even when Gonzalez collided with Starling Marte, putting a hold on his season, it was Cole Tucker that the team called upon; partly due to the fact that Newman was nursing a finger injury and wasn’t available. However, upon his return he seized the opportunity and ultimately the role at shortstop for the remainder of the year. It was a pleasant surprise to say the least, in an disappointing year for the Pittsburgh Pirates overall.

Then came the off-season season. Amateur and professional sabermetricians alike began to question how Newman had maintained his high level of production at the plate for the entire year and honestly they were kind of stumped. Almost all of the data showed that it shouldn’t have been possible or at the very least would be difficult to replicate. In other words Newman would more than likely be heading for a regression as he ranked near bottom in exit velocity, hard hit %, xSlG and barrel %, as well below average in xwOBA according to Statcast. I even listed him as a regression candidate in an article prior to the season; Progression, Regression and Stagnation: 2020 Pirates Player Projections.

Kevin Newman’s 2019 MLB Percentile Rankings via Statcast at https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kevin-newman-621028?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb.

When the 2020 season finally got underway and Newman got off to a slow start people began to think that the numbers and they were correct; the regression had begun. After six games he was only batting .125 and even after eleven games it had only risen to .186. However since that point, and even a little little before that Newman’s stroke seems to have gotten back on track as he now sits at .277 heading into tonight’s game versus the Cleveland Indians, riding a 7 game hitting streak. Based on this you might start to think that maybe his peripherals have improved and the initial projections were wrong, but you would be incorrect. Kevin Newman is pretty much the exact same player he was during the previous year.

Kevin Newman’s 2020 MLB Percentile Rankings via Statcast at https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kevin-newman-621028?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb.

So, what is up with Kevin Newman? Honestly I have no idea other than the fact that when he is at the plate, he just puts the bat on the ball; albeit not as hard as most players in the league. Both his K% and Whiff % remain as one of the highest in the league at 97% and 96% respectively, while his BB% is in the bottom 20 qualifiers in MLB at 4.3%. To put this in perspective the current league leader has a BB% of 27.3% and the league average is around 14 to 15%. Nothing about Newman’s stats make sense and truthfully still point towards a regression, BUT this doesn’t seem to matter to him and maybe he is the outlier that will continue to produce no matter what the numbers say.

Fair or Foul? After a Controversial Call, the Indians Win it In Extras 6-3

The Pirates once again found themselves in COVID limbo, this time with a member of the Cincinnati Reds testing positive for the virus. This caused more games to be postponed, with the Saturday and Sunday match ups being canceled. Anyways, the Pirates were back in action tonight and unfortunately it ended in a Pittsburgh extra innings loss in their series opener against the Cleveland Indians.

JT Brubaker was on the hill for the Pirates, and he was able to get around a walk and an error to get through the first inning. In the bottom of the first, the Pirates wasted no time getting to Indians starter Carlos Carrasco. A Kevin Newman double and a two-out single that got through the shift by Colin Moran gave Pittsburgh a 1-0 lead at the end of 1.

In the top of the third, the Indians were able to get on the board. The inning started with Cesar Hernandez hitting a ball to the wall in center for a double. After back-to-back walks from José Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana lined one to center for a single that scored a pair. The next batter, Franmil Reyes, hit a high fly ball to center that was tracked down by Jarrod Dyson on the warning track, and Lindor scored. A little bit about this play: StatCast had Dyson running 75 feet and the catch probability was at 5 percent. If the catch had not been made, there was a possibility that two scored and Reyes would have been standing on second. Instead Brubaker settled down and the score was only 3-1 after that inning.

Derek Holland, who last pitched ten days ago on the eighth of this month, got a chance to pitch out of the bullpen. There was speculation after the Pirates pushed his start back that he might have been traded, which was a really bad take. After a rough start against the Tigers his last time out, he really came back tonight, pitching two scoreless innings with a pair of strikeouts.

Carlos Carrasco cruised after the Pirates scored in the first inning, not allowing hardly any offense until the bottom of the fifth inning. After a Moran strikeout, Adam Frazier singled to left and Kevin Newman walked. On the first pitch of Josh Bell’s at-bat, Carrasco bounced one that turned into a wild pitch, moving the runners up to 2nd and 3rd. The very next pitch, Josh Bell banged a changeup into the right-center gap for a double to score both runners and tie the game up at 3.

There were a lot of close calls in a few innings, but both the Pirates and Indians bullpens were able to shut down the offense. Chris Stratton, Nik Turley, Richard Rodriguez, and Keone Kela all helped with a scoreless inning each. Óliver Pérez, Cam Hill, Phil Maton, James Karinchak, and Nick Wittgren all contributed to Cleveland shutting Pittsburgh down.

I want to talk about the bottom of the ninth. Jarrod Dyson led off the inning with a ground ball off of the first baseman Ramírez, and they called it a single. Jacob Stallings then attempted to sacrifice Dyson over, and the pitcher Nick Wittgren went to second, where Dyson was safe, and then Stallings was safe on the throw to first. Two on, nobody out, seems like a recipe for a Pirates win. Except it was the Pittsburgh Pirates. Dyson got caught too far off of second, the catcher Roberto Perez noticed that, and Dyson was picked off at second base. The Pirates challenged, and it actually looked like shortstop Francisco Lindor blocked Dyson with his cleat. The call indeed stood and now there was a runner on first with one out. Adam Frazier lined out, and then Kevin Newman got his third hit on the day, this one a single to move the runner to second. Cole Tucker then came in to pinch run, but Josh Bell struck out to send the game to extras.

Sam Howard, who came into the game pitching pretty well, got the task of pitching the top of the 10th inning. The first batter, José Ramirez, struck out after 8 pitches. Francisco Lindor was hit with a pitch on a 1-2 count, bringing Carlos Santana to the plate. On the second pitch of the at-bat, Santana hooked one down the left-field line that looked like it was foul with the naked eye. Even Santana went back to get ready to hit. Instead, the umpire called it fair and the Indians had the lead. After a long replay review, the umpires, along with New York, decided that the ball had gone over the foul pole. I saw a few angles, and one of them showed the ball going left of the pole, but one of them looked like it went over it. Everybody in the stadium thought it was foul, including the batter, but nevertheless, the Indians had a 6-3 lead. The Indians closer Brad Hand locked it down in the bottom of the ninth to hand the Pirates another loss, dropping their record to 4-15.

The Pirates will give Steven Brault (0-0, 5.14 ERA) the start tomorrow against a young Cleveland Indians starter, Aaron Civale (2-2, 3.60 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 P.M.

The Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Staff: Different Year, Same Results

We all knew that the truncated 2020 season was going to be rough on the Pirates Pitchers. After beginning their ramp up in Spring Training, they were abruptly shutdown and sent packing to work out on their own. After the unexpected layoff, they had to start stretching themselves out again during an abbreviated Summer Camp. Now they are being forced to start and stop and then start again due to postponements, while preparing to play games with little time off and 7 inning double headers squished in between. Thus far the Pirates have played 18 games, which ultimately leaves 42 games yet to be played in the remaining 41 days; a task that would difficult for even the most seasoned and healthy pitching staffs, which the Pirates clearly are not.

Prior to the initial start to the season Pirates Fans were extremely optimistic due to the firing of Ray Searage and the subsequent hiring of new school pitching coach, Oscar Marin. Gone were the days of pitch to contact and the game within the game; enter in the rapsodo, Trackman data and other analytical tools. However, just as it was with the Pirates Pitchers getting shutdown and jerked around, the same would go for Marin. He was barely getting started with introducing his approach to the big league staff, along with members of the Minor Leagues and non-roster invitees when he forced to go back home like everyone else. Sure there were stories of him getting to work with Trevor Williams because of them living near each other and how much he liked his curveball, which was nice to hear, but this is one pitcher in a whole staff and organization of pitchers. Many others didn’t have this benefit, as well as the fact that Marin didn’t have the opportunity to work with each and every one of them to instill his vision.

So here they all were at the beginning of a season that would be like no other, minus Chris Archer who had been placed on IL and Edgar Santana with his 80 game suspension for PEDs; yet Pirates fans were still hopeful even though the only additions were a few non-roster invitees to go along with a couple of players returning from injury and some first timers. Now I am not saying I wasn’t one of these fans, erring on the side of caution, but still optimistic; because I was. I am just pointing out that maybe we were all looking through our rose colored glasses a little to much; at least in the short term, as we sit here 18 games later pretty much in the same boat as we were last season. Injuries have started to pile up, young guys are being called on before their time, players are getting signed off other team’s waiver wires to fill holes and add depth and others are being given too long of a leash at times, possibly out of necessity. As I comb through the statistics of this young season it feels like deja vu.

In 2019 the Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Staff was toward the bottom of the list in almost every statistical category including ERA (26th with a 5.19), BB/9 (24th at 3.65), HR/9 ( 21st allowing 1.51) and LOB% (26th at 68.9%). Flash forward a year and it is much off the same. They are 26th in ERA with a 5.55, 30th in BB/9 at 4.54, 21st in H/9 allowing 1.51 and 24th in LOB% at 67.2%. Sure it is not all their fault due to injuries, patching holes, playing young guys and in the case of this year, dealing with the unforeseen consequences of a global pandemic, but last year wasn’t either.

In the end we have to make do with the hand we are dealt; and in the cases of Derek Shelton and especially Oscar Marin they might need to ask Ben Cherington if the deck can be reshuffled or in the worst case scenario, ask for a new deck.