Going Yard with the Pittsburgh Pirates

Sometimes it gets boring talking about the trade deadline in a normal year, its quite possible this season is worse because we have no idea what teams around the league are really thinking. I don’t know how I’d feel about a bunch of player movement in this environment and the rules are flat out restrictive for certain kinds of deals.

I need to simplify the whole situation to make sense of it, time for a trip back to younger days when yard sales were still a big thing. Some of you less, um, experienced folks might need an explainer. Think Ebay or Facebook Marketplace but with real human contact.

One year in particular I wanted a new BMX, and while my parents didn’t leave too many things out there unprovided, this was a brand name I personally wanted and in order to get it I had to get the money. This meant selling some things I really liked. I appreciated this lesson looking back, I knew more about economics by the time I was 12 than most of my friends on graduation day.

I’m going to use the experience of that epic sale to categorize the Pirates roster into trade buckets. I’m not sure where my sister making Snoopy Sno Cones for the shoppers for 50 cents per fits in but it’s also probably my best memory from the whole thing so it couldn’t go unmentioned.

Let’s dig in.

The Untouchables – I didn’t have many if I’m honest. Collectable postage stamps from the Penguins 90-91 Championship, a few priceless baseball cards, that’s about it. Now the Pirates also don’t have many of them, but you’d have to think Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller are close right? If there is another, I might suggest Jacob Stallings if only because there isn’t anything close in the system and most of what looks available in the market isn’t going to be ready to step in next season. Like it or don’t young pitchers need that consistency back there.

The Flips – My friends and I built our own bikes, they had wheels and got you around but let’s face it, my goal was to buy a BMX so obviously these weren’t great machines. Most of them came from spare parts I either bought at another yard sale or we got from a junk yard. This category is easy to fill for the Pirates, Derek Holland, Jarrod Dyson, Heredia, Riddle, and maybe even John Ryan Murphy. These are all players brought in on one-year deals or not part of the future in any way. Much like I had no use for those rebuilt bikes and wanted badly to flip them into the cash I needed to get better.

High Priced & Not Likely to Sell – I had a few items that were priced high not based on real value, but what they meant to me like my collection of original die cast Transformers, or Wolverine Volume 1. Selling these was possible unlike the untouchables but not easily pried out of my grip. Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams fit the bill for the Bucs. The Pirates might trade one of these players but I’m pretty sure they have the price set higher than the league at large would want to spend.

Toys I Didn’t Plan to Keep – For me these were Micro Machines and GI Joe. I had long since grown out of them and planned to move on from them anyway, but they were still nice, and I didn’t exactly feel right just giving them away either. Keone Kela, short list. He’s the most obvious trade chip on the roster, at least prior to this offseason. If they don’t move him, he walks for nothing and he can really help another club.

Screaming Deals – I wasn’t dying to move my Back to the Future skateboard, I still used it on occasion but I was also trying to buy a better mode of transportation, so it seemed frivolous to hold on just to keep it. I knew it was worth some real money and if nobody was willing to pay what I felt was a fair price, so be it, I’ll just keep it and have fun. This is one of the deeper areas for the Pirates and nobody headlines it quite like Adam Frazier. I’d also add Stratton, Brault, Richard Rodriguez, Erik Gonzalez, Colin Moran, and potentially Jose Osuna. These are all players who likely aren’t part of the long-term success of the club, but the team has no forced urgency to move them, in fact they could very well like to keep a couple.

Look, I know this is a silly nostalgic look at the trade deadline, but seriousness is not really on the table right now. If the Pirates move Kela for International Pool money and do nothing else I don’t think we can assume they want to build on who’s here. It will simply mean the climate wasn’t conducive to the kind of moves they want to make.

What we have to hope for above all is that Cherington doesn’t run his yard sale like Huntington did. See Neal gave away a broken riding mower for a nice weed whacker named Chris Archer, only to watch his neighbor pop a 12-dollar belt on it and drive it around in front of him, along with the $250 trimming bagger he tossed in.

That’s the kind of failure that can’t crop up again, an organization like the Pirates simply can’t afford it. I sold that skateboard for 20 bucks, a pretty penny back in the day, and the next year I was out with my grass cutting money looking for another. When your team has obvious holes in the system its important to make sure you aren’t creating new issues to fix another. Maybe my sister was on the right track, see she was selling a renewable commodity. On a baseball club that takes years to develop, a real pipeline that backfills your MLB roster every time you sell. That’s the goal, to get the system ready to keep the valleys from dropping so very deep when the cycle turns over.

Will Cherington be successful? This year the forecast looks ominous, but the beautiful thing is for most of the players they’d like to listen to offers on, there will be another weekend coming soon.

Ignoring an Issue Leads Directly to Predictable Results

I could rail on the Cardinals or Marlins for the carelessness displayed in their handling of the safety protocols, but today I’d rather focus on how predictable this was and worse the very easy to see coming damage from the fallout.

The Pirates are our focus here, but the problem is not theirs alone. That said I’m going to use the Bucs to illustrate the domino effect that is actively taking place in MLB and all the fallout it will create. I’m using the Pirates because they’re familiar and face the challenges ahead of them through no fault of their own.

Let’s start here, the Pirates are in no danger of having their playoff chances hindered, they took care of that on their own. Instead they will do their part to make the league’s lack of accountability work by playing two double headers against the Cards and sacrifice a scarce off day.

Now toss in another double header against the Reds. We don’t even know why this one was caused yet. Sounds like just being cautious, and we have yet to hear how a Cincinnati Reds player contracted the Virus, although really, its hard to really trust any of the causation.

Imagine you are working at a bank and start feeling ill, you call off work and go get tested and it comes back positive. You feel like you’ve done everything right, wore a mask, didn’t go out just to go out, but you got it anyway. You take your 10-14 days of time off and get back to work after you’re better. Despite what we see on the news this is the most common outcome after all, easy to forget it’s not a death sentence for most.

Sure, the bank probably pushes some of your work to after you return, someone pitches in to take care of stuff that can’t wait but this doesn’t cripple the business. More to the point other banks don’t need to close because of one issue at another institution.

That’s what MLB has going on. What it is creating is an evolving situation that will ultimately lead to two or three weeks of doubleheaders. Even just this past weekend, the Reds had a positive test and found out in the middle of Friday’s game, another issue that needs to improve. If one positive can’t be handled by isolating the player, retesting, and getting back on the field after missing no more than a game you can see how this will balloon out of control quickly.

One positive test led to the postponement of two games and even though the teams shared an off day today they still didn’t feel comfortable playing a double header at this point. So, they kick it down the road. A road already littered with make up contests against the Cardinals.

We’ve all watched the Pirates pitching staff fall to injury this season, if you look around the league, they certainly aren’t alone. Nobody really has a fact-based explanation, although it’s fairly easy to point to the oddity of the abbreviated Spring Training 2.0 and now the added start and stop of tapdancing through the COVID minefield.

Now take an already taxed pitching staff and patchwork rotation and add in the elimination of off days and doubleheaders too. Think that might cause some more issues?

MLB is trying to do what they think is best, which in their mind consists of playing all the games and not punishing people for catching a virus. I get it, but this simply won’t work without causing more damage, unless they do something else.

They just cut down to 28-man rosters, but I believe to help teams navigate the coming barrage of games they need to go back to 30. 7 inning games will help, but even if they all end in regulation that’s still 14 innings that need covered in one day, in some cases 2 or 3 times for one week.

We say the Cards and Marlins haven’t been punished and no in the conventional sense they haven’t been, but the Cards will now play what amounts to over 15 double headers in a tight window. At the very least they won’t be able to utilize any form of a regular rotation to accomplish it and if they get through it without landing more pitchers on the shelf it would be a modern-day miracle.

Again, maybe they deserve it, unfortunately they won’t walk this path alone. If MLB is hell bent on having as many as possible play all 60 games, they owe it to the clubs to increase the roster size and embrace the fact that we aren’t done adding new make up contests to the already congested schedule. Maybe it’s as simple as saying the taxi squad becomes active when doubleheaders happen. They get one game check and the accompanied service time, and the teams don’t have to mess with transaction nonsense. Something can be done here; the question is will it.

If you just want to say they shouldn’t have played, it’s a bit late even if you felt that way before. Want a bubble, yeah, the owners did too. Now that we’re where we are, the onus is on MLB to do something to make this season safe from the most dangerous pitfall which is injury to arms.

How Do You Manage a Season Like This? The NL Central is a Nice Mix

I’d imagine answering that question you really have to see the question from the perspective of who happens to be asking. As someone who writes about the Pirates, it’s hard to not get tunnel vision but every team has a unique set of problems.

Let’s talk about how teams in different situations might be thinking today. Understanding what’s going on out there with other clubs can sometimes help us understand our own. The great news in the NL Central alone has a representative of a wide range of situations.

Already Out of the Race
The Pirates, we might as well start at home. We all know the record 4-14, it is neither pretty nor unexpected, ok, THIS bad was a little unexpected, if not partially fueled by injury.

Trade Deadline – Pretty clear this isn’t a team just suffering from hard luck, they’re pretty bad. Making some trades would be nice but it really needs to be the right deal. We won’t get extra credit for moving someone right now, far better to get the right return. What we owe ourselves is to be open to listening to anyone about just about anyone.

Goals for the Remainder of the Season – Answer questions. Seems simple but finding out what you have is pretty hard when most of your questions involve pitching, yet this area is where you’re suffering the most. I want to avoid specifics in this piece but suffice to say it would have been really nice to see more of what Mitch Keller has to offer. You hate to head into a second straight season wondering if he can hold down a spot.

I can’t say the Shelton feels the same, but part of changing the culture is learning how to win, that doesn’t always require winning games as backward sounding as that may be.

Still in the Race
The Brewers, and Reds, technically we could toss the Cards in here, but I have a special section for them. The Brewers are about where many expected at 9-10, while the Reds are underwhelming the league darling projections many assigned them at 9-11. Regardless both are firmly in the hunt and even a sub .500 record will probably do to make the playoffs.

Trade Deadline – Even though these clubs have similar records, they probably break on this one. The Reds might be open to bringing in a rental, most likely in the bullpen, while the Brewers need pitching, specifically starting pitching and I suspect they won’t be upset if that pitcher has an extra year or two attached.
I can’t imagine the Reds have much more to spend but I get the impression they bought the hype, so I wouldn’t rule it out.

Goals for the Remainder of the Season – Playoffs. Both of these clubs have survived the first third of the season and sitting right under the .500 mark the playoffs are a very real possibility. The Brewers have to actually feel pretty good, they’re in this thing and Christian Yelich has been damn near invisible hitting only .176 thus far. The Reds have endured some injury, none bigger than Mike Moustakas but their biggest problem is probably Eugenio Suarez, hitting .123 with two homeruns. They can make it to the dance without him, but they won’t get far if he doesn’t return to form. Unless of course Jessie Winker is more than just on a hot streak.

Barely Started the Race
The Cardinals, very technically speaking they’re in second place, but how can you really consider them in the hunt? At 4-3 they’ve scarcely done anything. They have enough to be there at the end but also face a gauntlet of double headers, starting pitching won’t help navigate all that.

Trade Deadline – If I’m the Cards and want to make the playoffs, I’m probably on the hunt for relief pitching, specifically long relief. Not that I want to see it but a Chris Stratton could be a perfect fit.

Goals for the Remainder of the Season – Finish it. At this point I’d imagine playing even close to 60 would be a win. If they can manage to make the playoffs too, swell.

Setting the Pace
The Cubs, have probably started off better than even they expected, but they have just about everything you could want at 13-5.

Trade Deadline – They’ve tried to fill this void, but the Cubs still need back end of the bullpen help, Keone Kela could really make an impact on that club. An interesting twist could be the Cubs moving a big piece, specifically Kris Bryant. He has one more year of team control, but he’s started the season hitting .196 and the Cubbies could feel pretty good about moving him since they’ve built this record to this point largely without him contributing.

Goals for the Remainder of the Season – Win it all. There aren’t a ton of teams who can really have this as a goal but Chicago certainly is one.

An Uneventful 8-1 Loss For The Pirates

After an offensive explosion to start the game on Thursday the Pirates bats became silent for the remainder of the game. As Sonny Gray took the mound for the Reds we couldn’t help but wonder, which Pittsburgh ball club would show up to Great American Ball Park on Friday night. For the first three innings it would look like the later. Aside from a sharply hit double by Erik Gonzalez, Gray was on point, striking out four. In the top of the 4th the Pirates finally got to him as Bryan Reynolds hit his first home run of the season to centerfield.

For the Pirates it was Chad Kuhl’s time to shine as the reins were taken off and he was expected to pitch beyond the 4th inning. In the end things went pretty well as Jesse Winker was the only Red that could dial in on Kuhl’s offerings. Unfortunately this equaled two home runs and three runs scored by Cincinnati over five innings to give them a 3-1 lead over Pittsburgh leading into the 6th. He would ultimately exit the game with six strikeouts and only one walk, but the runs he gave up would leave him on the hook for the loss if the Pirates couldn’t make up ground.

As for Gray he continued to have his way with Pittsburgh’s lineup, totaling 10 strikes before being relieved by Nate Jones in the top of the 7th after giving up the second single to Cole Tucker. He worked his way out of the inning thanks to a nice catch by Shogo Akiyama on a sharply hit ball by Jacob Stallings.

Chad Kuhl was replaced by Nik Turley who held the Reds in check, striking out two. In the bottom of the 7th, Chris Stratton came in to keep the game close. In his previous three outings Stratton allowed only one run while striking out nine in five innings of work. However, this appearance was not a continuation of the previous ones as he allowed four runs on five hits, stretching Cincinnati’s lead to 7-1 in the blink of an eye. Brandon Waddell would follow in his first Major League appearance, allowing an additional run on back to back doubles.

The Pirates proceeded to go down quietly in the 9th and the game ended in a disappointing 8-1 final, only accumulating five hits. Fortunately they will have a chance to take a lead in the series as Steven Brault puts his foot on the rubber against Trevor Bauer, who is undefeated on the season with a .93 ERA in three starts.

Ke’Bryan Hayes Getting the Call Isn’t a Lock in 2020

Everybody wants to see the kid play. If the future is all we have to root for, it makes total sense to want to see a glimpse now. I get it. I also get the Pirates manipulating service time, right or wrong it’s how business is done under this CBA. The universe doesn’t seem to share the fan’s zeal for seeing Hayes get his shot just right now.

Fans just want to see the future a bit, makes sense.

In Spring, the real one, not the bastardized second, Hayes was looking like exactly what you’d like to see from any top prospect. Stroking line drives, flashing leather, looking patient at the plate and in general making his case. Now, let’s not leave it there, first of all he didn’t get the full Spring and that matters because he never got to prove this was going to stick against MLB pitching and the whole thing got shut down while Hayes was in the middle of a swing change he just started with Rick Eckstein.

When the restart happened eventually, Hayes tested positive for COVID-19. Let’s be honest, he wasn’t going to start the season with the Pirates almost no matter what because of that nasty service time and Super-2 stuff but that positive took the outside chance completely off the table.

On top of that, Phil Evans did a little more than keep a seat warm didn’t he? Before his injury he led the club in batting average and was playing all over the field. Proving himself useful if not actually kinda exciting. Colin Moran jumped out to a hot start with the bat, he’s cooled since a bit but 6 homeruns in the first 21 games is a better pace than we’ve ever seen from Moran. He has spent the majority of his time bouncing between 3B, 1B and DH to get his at bats and that’s worked out nicely for him, proving himself pretty capable at first in particular.

Then came Erik Gonzalez. What more can you say really? He’s slick with the glove, he’s tearing the cover off the ball and he isn’t going to be a free agent for a while.

I’m not blind, Evans has done little more than to ensure someone if not the Pirates will give him a real shot next year. Moran has proven that he has found a way to unlock at least a little more of that power and what he’s starting to put on tape makes first base a viable spot for a club that already has a locked in DH. He helps here or in a trade. Gonzalez is 29 but still has control. He too is a trade option, but man is it hard to ignore that exit velocity.

So, is Hayes still the future? Probably. The Pirates are one trade away from giving him a shot in my mind but make no mistake this isn’t Kris Bryant being held back. You can talk about the defense all you like, and it’s fabulous let’s just get that out of the way, but you still need power at the corners. He can develop that a bit but it’s simply not something he’s shown much of. Certainly not like Moran, but the argument for calling him up has always primarily been in an effort to get Moran off the field, that’s already been largely accomplished. Is he an upgrade for Gonzalez defensively at third? If so, it’s not by much. It’s hard to call up a touted rookie then have him ultimately show himself, at least as we speak, less capable than a 29-year-old who was all but given up on.

Maybe you think Gonzalez should move to short, bumping Newman to second. Lord knows that was the prevailing thought when Cole Tucker was flavor du jour for taking over at short. Maybe that’s the Pirates plan too. If they can’t find a way to play Hayes and showcase players they may want to move, Hayes will in all likelihood stay put. If no trades happen and he doesn’t play in 2020, I don’t believe they think less of him, they just didn’t make room for him. The elephant in the room with Hayes is really simple, we have no idea how he looks, what he’s doing, if he’s healthy.

So, am I saying leave him where he is? No, but I am saying I’m in no hurry. At this point it would be little more than a September call up, we won’t ‘see what we got’ and will enter next season asking ourselves many of the same questions whether he comes up or not. Can he hit for power, and can he keep the strikeouts down?

Nothing is right this year, Hayes would be building his resume in AAA right now, laying real evidence that the swing change took, and he is a matchup problem for more pitchers than not at that level. We don’t have that. In fact, we don’t have anything about what he’s doing do we? We don’t know if he’s just been playing in the batting cage or running laps. As Craig just pointed out the other day, Ben Cherington just acknowledged that they don’t have enough pitchers to get all these guys live at bats regularly.

If you really believe a player is part of the future, setting them up for a rough debut is at best questionable. Again, the trade deadline is about two weeks away, this decision could make itself, but try to avoid panic if somehow when the dust settles, they decide to just push this to next season. It may actually be in his best interest developmentally speaking.

There is someone like this almost every year. Will Craig has been one of these guys for a couple seasons, I question if he’ll ever be given a chance here. I also question if he’s earned one. Being a number one pick isn’t a coronation, it just means the work starts with a little more expectation. I could say this for most top prospects really. Oneil Cruz is another guy that fans have clamored for, but as exciting as he is both on the field and with the bat at times, he has significant holes to work on, holes that don’t get fixed at this level. If you’re looking for immediate help from the prospect ranks, Blake Cederlind probably is your best bet.

At the end of the day, Hayes will come up, when he does, don’t expect Wade Boggs. Expect a kid who will excel in the field and take a couple years to show his spots with the bat. Unless they’re teaching him to pitch, he isn’t a franchise saver. I have no doubt he’ll be part of the solution, but the Pirates have problems he can’t solve alone. Pining for him to get called up is just asking him to sit in a different place.

After Three Day Break, Pirates Come Out Swinging, Beat Reds 9-6

Before the Pittsburgh Pirates’ three day layoff, they were struggling to put together consistent good at-bats. In an interview with Josh Bell, he said that he felt this series would be the one where the Pirates starting hitting. Well, if there was any way Bell would be right, it would be the fact that the Pirates were playing at Great American Ballpark in a four game series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Sure enough, Bell’s prediction seemed to be coming true from the jump, when Adam Frazier homered to center field on the second pitch he saw from Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani. Just two batters later, Colin Moran stepped up and hit a 430 foot bomb to center to give the Pirates a 2-0 lead in the top of the first inning.

Trevor Williams, who in his last start pitched a gem, giving up just one run in 7 innings against the powerful Minnesota Twins, got the start for the Pirates today. After his offense got him the lead in the top of the inning, Williams came in and set the Reds down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the inning, needing just 9 pitches to do so.

Then came the top of the second inning. After taking the first pitch, Gregory Polanco took advantage of the short right field, hitting one just over the wall out there. As a little side note, StatCast had that one going out in 3 out of the 30 major league ballparks. Luckily, the Pirates were playing in one of those 30. Polanco’s home run also marked the first time in Pittsburgh Pirates franchise history that three of the first six batters hit a home run.

Erik Gonzalez continued his tear with a hard-hit double off of the wall in left. After a Jarrod Dyson fly out moved Gonzalez to third, Jacob Stallings hit one past the drawn-in infield to give the Pirates a 4-0 lead. Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman followed that up with back-to-back singles that loaded up the bases for Josh Bell. Bell hit a ground ball to the left side that beat the shift and scored two more, making the score now 6-0. The hits kept coming for the Pirates, when Colin Moran lined one to center for a single that scored another. Bryan Reynolds walked to load the bases again, and then Gregory Polanco did the same to bring in yet another run. The Pirates were able to plate one more on a Gonzalez groundout to give the Pirates nine runs in the first two innings.

The Reds wasted no time in the bottom of the inning, with Eugenio Suarez drawing a walk and Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel singling to bring in a run. Luckily, Trevor Williams was able to bounce back, getting a fly out and a double play to hold the Reds to just one. It was 9-1 Pirates through 2 innings.

Cody Reed came in for the Reds after Anthony Desclafani gave up 9 runs in two innings. He looked good, holding the Pirates scoreless in the third and fourth innings, giving the Reds a chance to come back. His team once again chipped away at the lead, when Nick Senzel homered to cut the Pirates’ lead to 9-3 in the bottom of the fourth. Besides another Erik Gonzalez double, Reed held the Pirates to just one hit in his 2.2 innings of work. Michael Lorenzen, who had struggled to this point in the season, pitched 3.1 innings for the Reds, who had come into the game with the second-worst bullpen ERA.

For the Pirates, they got a solid start from Trevor Williams, who went five innings while striking out four and giving up three runs. They also got a solid inning from Sam Howard, who besides giving up a home run to Freddy Galvis in the bottom of the seventh, looked untouchable. He struck out three in five batters faced. Geoff Hartlieb also pitched an inning, and he gave up an RBI double to bring the Pirates lead down to 4. The most impressive outing from a Pirates reliever came from none other than Richard Rodriguez, who entered the game with runners on second and third and one out. He battled with Josh VanMeter in an eight pitch at-bat that eventually ended in a huge strikeout. Rodriguez got Freddy Galvis to ground out to second to end the innings.

After Lucas Sims shut down the Pirates in the top of the inning, it was Keone Kela time in the bottom of the ninth inning. This was Kela’s first appearance since Spring Training 1.0. He did not get greeted nicely, as Tucker Barnhart tucked a 97 MPH fastball around the right foul pole, making the game 9-6 with nobody out. Phillip Ervin then hit a sharp ground ball that deflected off of Erik Gonzalez and into left. After a mound visit, Kela was able to next the next three batters to end the game. The Pirates, who didn’t score after the second inning, came away with a 9-6 win.

The Pirates will ditch the piggybacking strategy and give Chad Kuhl (3 games, 2.00 ERA) his own start tomorrow against a very good Reds pitcher Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.25 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 P.M.

Series Preview: Pirates at Reds

After a brief three-day break for the Cardinals ‘Rona situation the Pirates hit the road to visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark, where hopefully the Pirates bats roar back to life. They sure better, because the Pirates pitching situation is on life support.

I’ll focus on what’s going on with the Reds primarily as I always do in these previews, but I feel it’s important to make sure we understand the rotation and how it might play out.

News broke yesterday that Joe Musgrove was headed to the 10-day IL for inflammation in his triceps. This caught most of us by surprise because all we knew was Joe was struggling with his ankle. Regardless, the Pirates are still downplaying this as not a significant worry, but every time a pitcher has to stop throwing in a shortened season, it will create more missed games than say Josh Bell nursing a sore arm.

The Bucs announced the rotation for this series as Williams, Brault, Holland, and Kuhl. Many were alarmed that youngster JT Brubaker wasn’t part of this rotation but the Pirates have an off day following this 4-game set so they can just go back to Williams, also, Brault seems to be in the three inning area for his program while Kuhl has steadily progressed and should be able to go five soon. Either way, Brubaker and probably Ponce will have to pitch in on those two days which will keep them active.

Keone Kela returns today and expect him to pitch even if the Pirates don’t run into a save situation. Kela is a no-brainer trade chip and the Bucs can’t afford to wait to showcase him if indeed a deadline deal is going to happen.

The Reds are 8-10, good for second in the NL Central and have just started being bitten by the injury bug a bit recently. Big free agent acquisition Mike Moustakas was trying to play through a bruised leg, but the Reds finally decided to send him to the IL, Pedro Strop has joined him. Wade Miley is day to day.

Nicholas Castellanos and Jesse Winker are leading the charge offensively, while Joey Votto and more so Eugeno Suarez are struggling mightily. Add them to the list of big names just not seeing the ball. Suarez in particular is batting .115 with three homeruns. That said nothing can help a struggling lineup quite like Pirates pitching. The Tigers came into town with a team batting average hovering around .200 and left up almost 40 points.

The Reds will toss Anthony DiSclafani, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, and Luis Castillo. Bauer has been lights out this season and comes into this series with an 0.93 ERA, DiSclafani has no ERA as we speak, Gray has 3 wins and an ERA in the 2’s, and Castillo has struggled while sprinkling in effective outings. The Reds Starting pitching is at least on paper, pretty good. The Bullpen leaves something to be desired but you have to get to them early to expose it. Something the strikeout prone Pirates have struggled to do.

If nothing else, the ballpark can create an equalizing factor as pitching tends to struggle no matter what uniform they wear.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Quarter Season Rewind

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ season has been very rocky thus far, and there’s a lot to talk about.

After the Pirates’ got swept this weekend at the hands of the Detroit Tigers, they have not yet won a series and they are 3-13 overall. Normally, 16 games into the season looks like nothing at all, but in this COVID-shortened season, that accounts for over 25% of the 60 games that are scheduled.

Then came the news this week about the St. Louis Cardinals. After the whole Marlins COVID-19 outbreak at the beginning of the season, the Cardinals decided to also go out to a club and got caught, to no surprise. St. Louis hasn’t played since July 29th, and they’ve only played 5 games. If you didn’t know, the Pirates were supposed to be the next team up on the schedule for the Cardinals. So while we wait for the Pirates to resume on Thursday in Cincinnati, I’ll recap what we’ve watched so far series by series, as well as some key storylines.

Opening Weekend at Cardinals (July 24-26)

This was the beginning of a new era for the Pirates with a new regime in place. Opening Day also marked the return of the Twitter trolls. While there were some people who were optimistic, many were not. Anyways, the Pirates got strong starts from Joe Musgrove and Mitch Keller, and Trevor Williams continued his struggles from 2019, allowing 3 runs in 3.2 innings. Unfortunately, Musgrove was facing Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty, resulting in a 5-4 loss. Adam Wainwright held the Pirates to 3 hits and 1 run in a game the Pirates would lose 9-1. In the third game of the series, Mitch Keller allowed 2 hits and a run over 5 innings in a 5-1 win, the first win for the Pirates. Clay Holmes pitched an inning and a third scoreless, and Michael Feliz and Nick Burdi also had scoreless outings. Richard Rodriguez gave up a home run and Kyle Crick continued his struggles, with four runs given up.

On the offensive side, Colin Moran was 4-11 with a home run. Phillip Evans continued to impress while going 3-7 and Jose Osuna also hit well, going 3-8. Osuna also had 4 RBIs in the series. Outside of this, the Pirates offense was mostly dormant and there isn’t really much else to talk about. The most surprising thing was that Bryan Reynolds, who hit .314 in 2019, did not get a hit. So that meant that the Pirates were 1-2 heading into their first home series against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Vs Milwaukee Brewers (July 27-29)

First, I’d like to mention that out of all of the Pirates’ series so far, this one might have been the most enjoyable to watch. It didn’t really matter who won or who lost, but it was good baseball if you like hitting, and bad if you like good bullpen pitching. The first game was the Pirates’ turn to blow it, when Michael Feliz gave up 4 after a promising first appearance and then Kyle Crick gave up a double to Ryan Braun to tie the game. The Pirates would eventually lose 6-5 thanks to the 2020 extra innings rule. I guess the Brewers felt badly because they returned the favor the following night, when they allowed the Pirates to score four in the bottom of the 7th, partially thanks to a massive throwing error by first baseman, Justin Smoak. Then Adam Frazier hit a two-run homerun in the next inning to give the Pirates the lead that would eventually lead to an 8-6 win. Brandon Woodruff and the Milwaukee bullpen pitched a one-hit 3-0 shutout in the final game of the series, and that gave the Pirates their second series loss of the season. In game one, we got our first look at the piggyback and it did not disappoint. Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl combined for 5.2 scoreless innings. This was Kuhl’s first appearance since June 26, 2018. Richard Rodriguez also bounced back with a clean inning and a strikeout. Geoff (not Jeff) Hartlieb got his first MLB win in this series, pitching two scoreless innings in game 2, the same game that Nick Burdi got his first MLB save. 

As far as hitting went, Colin Moran hit two home runs and knocked in three. Cole Tucker got a start and went 2 for 4 and Reynolds finally seemed to have broken out of a slump, also going 2 for 4 in the middle game of the series. Phillip Evans continued his unexpected season, going 2 for 6 with an RBI. Evans and Moran were basically the offense in the first two series, besides a few key hits by Guillermo Heredia and Jarrod Dyson and of course Adam Frazier. The Pirates were now 2-4, and they were going on the road to Chicago and Minnesota.

At Chicago Cubs (July 31-August 2)

After the exciting Brewers series, this Chicago Cubs series was almost the exact opposite. The Pirates scored 7 runs in this series, and 6 of them were scored in the 8th and 9th innings. Craig Kimbrel allowed 2 runs in game 1, and then Kyle Ryan allowed three in the 9th inning of the next game. Trevor Williams started his second game of the season, where he continued his struggles from his first start, walking three and giving up four hits over 4.2 innings. He gave up 2 earned runs as well in a 6-3 Cubs win. Mitch Keller got the second game of the series, going 2.2 innings and giving up 2 runs. He actually injured his oblique in this start and has been out ever since. The Pirates ended up losing 4-3 after a late hitting surge. The Pirates tried the piggyback thing again and after Steven Brault started the game off by going 3 perfect innings, Derek Shelton brought in Chad Kuhl. After a perfect fourth, Kuhl gave up consecutive doubles and then left due to an injury later in the inning. It turned out to be basically a hangnail, so it was almost the best-case scenario. The Pirates would eventually lose in their second 11 inning game, 2-1. Hartlieb continued his early success, pitching an inning and a third scoreless. Chris Stratton also had 1.1 innings of very good pitching. Dovydas Neverauskas, who has been pitching batting practice to the opposition the past few seasons, pitched two scoreless innings in this series. JT Brubaker, who pitched two scoreless against the Cards, pitched three innings, once again, without giving up a run. He also recorded 3 strikeouts. The biggest surprise about the pitching in this series had to have been Sam Howard. Howard, who had just been called up from Altoona, struck out three over two innings, including the 10th inning with the new automatic runner on second rule. 

Like I said, the runs really only came in the final two innings of each game, but there were some good individual performances from the batters. Colin Moran hit another two home runs, bringing his season total to 5 through the first 9 games. Josh Bell also hit his first homer of the season, which was a good sign considering he had been slumping to that point. Bryan Reynolds also added another two-hit game, and he went 2-8 in the series. Kevin Newman was overlooked in this series, as he hit a home run and went 4-12 in the series. Once again, Moran seemed to be the only consistent bat in the Pirates’ lineup. The Pirates were heading to Minnesota after being swept, now with a 2-7 record.

At Twins (August 3-4) and Vs Twins (August 4-5)

Heading into this series, there was little to no optimism because the Twins had just come off of a year where they hit over 300 home runs and absolutely dominated every team, especially the weak ones. Surprisingly, there ended up being some pretty close games in this home-and-home series. Derek Holland got his second start, and he gave up four runs in 5.2 innings. It wasn’t as bad as his final stat line showed, as all of those runs were scored in the 6th. The Twins walked it off against Nick Burdi in the bottom of the 9th, and the Pirates lost 5-4. Joe Musgrove did not have a good start in the second game, giving up five runs over three and a third innings. The final score of that one was 7-3. When the teams went to Pittsburgh, Trevor Williams reverted to his 2018 self, pitching 7 innings of one-run ball. The Pirates still took the loss, 5-2. In the final game of the series, JT Brubaker gave up 3 runs in 3 innings, and then the Pirates came back in the 9th to win it 6-5. Richard Rodriguez pitched yet another scoreless inning. Chris Stratton pitched three scoreless innings across two appearances in the series and Yacksel Rios had a game where he threw two impressive innings where he only gave up one hit. 

The Pirates definitely had better hitting in this series, and their best hitter was Phillip Evans, who went 5-13. Erik Gonzalez really had a breakthrough series, going 5-11 with two doubles. In the third game of the series, Josh Bell went 3-4 with a double and a home run. Outside of that, Kevin Newman had a big hit to win the final game of the series and Colin Moran had a two hit game mixed in as well. Add in a Gregory Polanco home run and that’s most of the production on offense. The Pirates were 3-10 and heading into their final series before the one-quarter mark against the lowly Detroit Tigers.

Vs Detroit Tigers (August 7-9)

Before this series started, I was sure this would be the Pirates’ first series win of the season, potentially a sweep. Last year, Detroit lost 114 games and they didn’t really make any changes. In the first game of the series, no pitchers were safe as the game went 11 innings and the Tigers won 17-13. In the second game, Derek Holland gave up 4 home runs on the first ten pitches, and 9 runs overall. The Tigers took that game as well 11-5. In the final game of the series, Steven Brault and Chris Stratton covered the first five innings, only giving up 1 run. Detroit’s starter, Spencer Turnbull, went 7 innings, and also only allowing one run. A Richard Rodriguez wild pitch, which was like nothing I’ve ever seen before, led to the winning run being scored in the 8th. The final score of that one was 2-1. So, after the Pirates got swept, there were some good hitters on the team. Erik Gonzalez continued his absolute dominance at the plate, hitting a 463 foot home run and going 6-13 with 7 RBIs, six of them coming in the first game. Phillip Evans was 3-7 in the series before a bad collision with Gregory Polanco ended his season. Bryan Reynolds also played solid, going 3-12 in the series. Kevin Newman hit pretty well, going 6-16 with a four hit game. 

There was a lot of rough pitching in these games, but there were some bright spots. Geoff Hartlieb had two scoreless appearances, as did Nik Turley (he did have one run unearned). Yacksel Rios had a perfect inning where he struck out two. Outside of the one run, Richard Rodriguez still had 5 strikeouts in 3 innings. Other than that, a lot of Pirates (and Tigers) pitchers got very touched up. 

So like I mentioned in the beginning, the Pirates are dead last in the MLB at 3-13. There are some key storylines and some players who are performing well, so I’m going to give a quick few thoughts.

Lineups– I know Gary has talked about this before, but since he wrote his article, the Pirates have still not had the same lineup twice. Not once in 16 games this far have the Pirates thrown out the same lineup twice. Whether or not Shelton is trying people out in different spots or whatever the reason may be, it’s still a bit strange that not once have we seen the same lineup twice.

Pitching Injuries– The Pirates have now lost 7 pitchers to the injured list, although Keone Kela is expected to be activated before the Cincinnati series. When you lose many of your top rotation and bullpen options, it’s hard to not only compete, but evaluate for the future, which is what the organization is trying to do.

Breakout Hitters– Erik Gonzalez is one that sticks out to me. If you don’t remember, he hit .322 in September of last season, and it seems like some of that is carrying over to this season, where he’s hitting .333 and making very hard contact. It’s sad what happened to Phillip Evans, because he was hitting .359 in 11 games. After slow starts, Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds are now hitting well, with Newman hitting .375 in August and Reynolds hitting .276 this month.

Breakout Pitchers– JT Brubaker has been a pleasant surprise this season, with a 3.38 ERA through his first 3 games. Chris Stratton has also been good, as he has a 2.89 ERA in 7 appearances. Sam Howard and Geoff Hartlieb, who have not been great in the past, have 1.80 and 2.45 ERAs respectively this season. And lastly, Chad Kuhl, who hadn’t pitched since 2018, has a 2.00 ERA his first 3 games, including a start.

For the Pirates in the 75% of the season remaining, it’s not about how many games they win or lose, it’s about the performances of those who might be centerpieces for this team moving forward. As fans, we’re ultimately along for the ride, no matter how bumpy it gets at times. We’ll just have to wait to see how things play out in the three-quarters of the season we still have left.

The Real Problem with Small Market Regime Change in Baseball

If you have nearly unlimited resources, identifying talent and turning a franchise around makes a lot more sense. I mean I could randomly grab 10 people from Twitter and show them video of Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco for half an hour and you tell me which one they’d want.

Ben Cherington knows this too of course. Make no mistake, he doesn’t think Henderson Alvarez or Nick Tropeano are uncut diamonds. He thinks they have potentially major league talent. Meaning, there is not a long list of good that comes from being forced to throw Nick Mears or Brandon Waddell into the fire before they’ve been prepared. If Alvarez fails, so what. I don’t mean that flippantly, sure it would be nice if he accidentally discovered bullpen help that’s affordable, but nothing is expected aside from providing cover to stop forcing kids who one day will be counted on into action they aren’t prepared for.

If Chicago, specifically the North Side, changes their GM and team president immediate change for the better used to be the norm. Even the big market clubs have come to understand the majority of talent needs to come from within. Here’s the difference, when they realized they had a ton of talent in the field, they looked to the mound and realized they had nothing. They got lucky resurrecting Jake Arrieta and traded for Lester, and Darvish. Kyle Hendricks is about all they cultivated and he’s not exactly Cy Young. The Cubs could afford to do that, and they could also afford to keep some of what they had.

They might win this season, good for them, but they’ll be starting the dismantle process in the near future.

I’ve said before, Nutting could spend more money. In fact, he has, so even if you only take it to 100M he could easily pump another 40 million into the club. Gerrit Cole makes over 35.

That’s how much TOP end talent costs. That’s why fewer than 6 or 7 teams in the league would even have a conversation with him and at that, you have to be willing to say yeah Gerrit, we think you’ll be just as good when you’re 38. That’s the part only teams like the Yankees or Dodgers can truly afford. Could the Pirates afford 31 Million a year for a fantastic pitcher whose back hurts so often 25 games aren’t a guarantee? Fiscally, sure, but let’s face it, Kershaw wouldn’t be surrounded by 200 million dollars in talent.

It all leads you to where we are.

Many fans have had enough and have grown weary of trusting the process. Many fans that have fully embraced that this is the path to success under this system just want to see it executed correctly. Now, here’s the kicker, when you hire a new GM and front office and the path forward is some form of rebuild (honestly, it’s just a word) you’re in for a ride. If he’s the wrong guy you won’t know for 4 or 5 years. Then what do you do? Maybe you fire the manager, maybe you clean house in the scouting department, sometimes you bring in a whole new regime and they pick up the pieces you left them and see if it builds a puzzle.

Cherington walked in knowing he was missing some edge pieces, so he didn’t even start putting it together. This still doesn’t mean he has to burn it down to the studs. He might, or he may identify someone he thinks he needs to keep. I’d love to have that player be Josh Bell, but I’ve often said, your best player can’t also be your most inconsistent. Spare me the Boras stuff, the market will be down for a minute and Vazquez signed an extension guess who repped him. Point is your best player can’t have 2-month long droughts. I have no doubt Bryan Reynolds is real, despite his start here in 2020 but why make a decision like that right now?

Regardless, here’s the list of what you the jaded fan are asked to get behind.
1. Cherington is the right guy
2. Williams and Cherington secured their ability to spend more than the Pirates have based partially on what they aren’t spending right now.
3. When they make trades for prospects, many of them will pan out.
4. They can identify talent and more importantly develop it.

Boil all that down and really what fans want is simple, to not be having this conversation 5 years from now. It’s not unlike getting married in a way, nobody goes into that thinking it will end, you go into it thinking this is forever and everything will go great. Well ask a divorcee how they go into a second marriage, it’s not pessimistic but maybe eyes a little wider this go around. By the third time the vows are just as powerful as signing a new lease for a Nissan.

I wish there was a fast-forward feature sometimes on this process. Not to stay there but just to take a glimpse of what this team could be if everything is done the right way. It would make enjoying the journey a bit easier to take in.

I don’t blame one person for saying they’re from Missouri, Show me.

The reason players are going to be traded is not to pad Nutting’s wallet, not this time. It’s because right now you’re watching the product of never admitting perpetual competitive baseball in this market, with this system, is so far from reality it boggles the mind.

They have pieces, they don’t have enough pieces. If you need to step away from the process and jump back in when/if the fruit starts showing, great. Just realize if you never plant the tree, there won’t be any harvest. It’s nowhere near as fun digging the hole as eating the apple.

It’ll be 5 years before we know if Williams and Cherington were lied to. That doesn’t mean they’ll suck out loud for 5 years, but the rent won’t come due on some of the players that make it to that point. For instance, Bryan Reynolds won’t make real bank for five years. Maybe they extend him beyond that and answer the question earlier. Bob’s done that before, Polanco, Marte, Cutch, Vazquez, Cervelli, I could go on. That’s the glimmer of belief right there. Recently, Neal didn’t provide much excuse to do it, again did he?

Cutch would have been a feel-good extension, but this team wouldn’t be measurably better right now. Cole is simply not a realistic signing for this club, I said it earlier but there are maybe 6 teams who can even entertain that kind of contract. None of that means he couldn’t have gotten the kind of return a player of that caliber should send back. Instead, Neal (and he stated this) wanted close to major league talent in exchange. This was an effort to not experience the valley that inherently comes with moving a talent like that. The result, no infusion of prospects on the near horizon, just players who were placed on the team with the hope they were just being held back by a star-studded lineup.

If everything goes well, Cole won’t be the last this club can’t afford to keep. Will they recognize what that means this time? Will they execute a dip in order to ascend more quickly?

I can’t promise these guys will do it right, but I promise that the plan doesn’t include buying their way out of it, and if you’re honest, you know why. I’ve told you baseball needs a cap and for the overall health of the league I firmly believe it’s the single most important topic in the sport, but until or if that happens, this is the reality.

You don’t have to like it, hell you don’t have to watch it, but if you want this club to maximize what they can be, you will have to be patient and hope the right people are in charge.

The Long Trip From Altoona to Pittsburgh: How Did We Get Here?

Back at the end of June, after all of the monetary negotiations had failed and the 103 page health and safety protocols had been approved, teams were asked to make some tough decisions as to how the would choose to assemble their 60-man player pool. Major League teams, including the Pirates, were asked to submit their pools to the front office with the goal of having Spring Training 2.0 at their home ballparks; comprised of 40-man rosters that would eventually be whittled down to 30 at the beginning of the season. The remainder of the players would be sent to an alternative/satellite training facility, People’s Natural Gas Field in Altoona for Pittsburgh. Ultimately the would be joined by the 10 players who did not make the opening day roster. How teams decided to construct their respective player pools and/or taxi squads was completely at the discretion of the general manager and his staff, but they would need to keep in mind that these alternative sites would be used as a quasi minor league system to pull from in case of injuries on the big league club.

So how did the Pirates and other clubs around Major League Baseball choose to set up the player pools at the alternative sites? Well, there were two methods of thought: 1) Top Prospects that have no realistic chance of playing in 2020 should be left of the list because they could take up a valuable roster spot. 2) Top Prospects, whether they have a chance of playing or not, and recent draftees should be added as to not miss out on a year of development. If you scan over the Pirates original list, you can easily see which direction they picked.

In the Pirates initial player pool/taxi squad there were a total of 7 players who had not reached above High A, 5 who had ended the year in AA, 4 who had varying degrees of time in AAA and 4 who had at least some MLB experience. In my eyes it safe to say there were at least 10 to 12 players that General Manager Ben Cherington had no intention of giving any playing time on the Pirates for the 2020 season; leaving at most 50 to 48 players to operate with for the entirety of the season and this is before you take into account that Nick Gonzales and Deon Stafford were added to the mix. This may seem like a lot, but what happens when injuries and positive COVID tests begin to accumulate? What if I told you that last year the Pirates used a total of 54 to players under normal circumstances. Would this move the dial for you at all? How about if you knew the Pirates had already used 37 different players and they are only a quarter of a way through the season?

I am sure that some of you would argue that we don’t want our top prospects missing out on a year of development, but I would immediately counter with the fact that Quinn Priester, Brennan Malone, Liover Peguero and Sammy Siani are mysteriously missing from this list. I could also make the argument that not much actual development is occurring because according to Cherington in an interview with Adam Berry of MLB.com, they do not have enough pitchers at Altoona to give position players a regular amount of live at-bats.

Another assertion could be made that the 60-man player pool is fluid and that free agents with more experience can always be added if needed or young guys can get their shot. However, this is how players like Henderson Alvarez III gets signed from the Milwaukee Milkmen, Tyler Bashlor gets acquired for cash or Nick Tropeano is claimed off of waivers. It’s also why players like Nick Mears get called up before they are truly ready. Sure I was as excited as any Pirates Prospect Junkie to see Mears get his first taste of the majors, but even I believed it was too soon for a player that only had 5.0 innings of work in AA during his professional career.

In any other season every team, including the Pirates with the Indianapolis Indians, would have 25 players on the AAA roster at their disposal. This year they essentially put at least 10 guys on that roster that otherwise wouldn’t be there. No matter which way I look at it I can’t see how this makes any sense, even in a shortened season.

In a larger sense a team’s decision as to how their full player pools are constructed can have an effect on the Major League Baseball season as a whole because when there is a COVID outbreak, they do not have enough major league ready talent to field a competitive team as has been the case with both the Cardinals and Marlins. For me this is another oversight by MLB in their plan to bring baseball back because anyone could have seen this coming, no matter what side of the aisle you find yourself on.

In the end I see these decisions becoming more and more of a problem as the season progresses and could ultimately lead to the MLB season not be completed, players being put in situations that they are not prepared for or the over use of free agent players/off-season acquisitions that should probably not be given as much MLB experience as they have or could see in the future.