Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – The Team is Set

3-24-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

This week on Steel City Pirates, you’ll see my 2025 season preview, Michael and Corey are putting together an NL Central season preview and we’ll dig into the roster decisions the team will finalize late this afternoon.

As I sit here to write this one though, we still have one more Grapefruit league game and we await the club’s final, and official moves.

Some of you have noticed, but I’ve taken over Locked On Pirates, so check that out just about every day.

Now, let’s go!

1. First Base, Last Decision

All Spring long the Pirates held firm to their decision to keep Endy Rodriguez behind the dish and away from his second position first base. All Spring long, the Pirates made it look like they were giving temporary first base duties to DJ Stewart.

Dating back to last season, Bryan Reynolds was mentioned as an option at first, only to find out this Spring, the club had no intention to move forward with it.

Spencer Horwitz was acquired to fill the role, at least against right handed pitching and almost immediately was injured, costing him likely the first month or so of the season.

DJ Stewart, Darick Hall, Adam Frazier, Jared Triolo, Nick Yorke, Billy Cook and even Jack Suwinski a late addition to this “mix” have seen time over there and each at one point or another have been rumored to be the defacto starter.

So on the last day of Spring, the Pirates have decided, nah, F all that, Endy IS going to play first base, and back up catcher and we’ll go ahead and have him start over there on the last game of Spring.

The reasoning? Well, supposedly it was not wanting to give Endy more to think about before knowing he’d actually make the roster.

Um… Ok?

Folks, this is THE move that made sense from the time Horwitz came up lame. While I understand functionally why you needed to see what Endy could do in general following his recovery from TJ, I can’t understand how they let it get to the point that he gets one practice game there before camp breaks.

Seems sloppy if nothing else, but if you reason he needed to focus and make the team, well, I’m not looking to break his focus on Regular Season Eve ya know?

Listen, they came to what is probably the right decision here, so am I nitpicking that it took so long, maybe. But it was so painfully obvious this made sense from as early as February, I guess I’m just confused about why they seemed to so desperately want to avoid it all Spring.

2. Borucki is Back

2024 was abysmal for Ryan Borucki. He spent the vast majority of the year on the IL and when he came back he was clearly not in a great place with his game. I don’t know about you, but I was prepared to just move on, he was a waiver claim that really helped in 2023, but like so many before him I was willing to accept that’s all he was, a footnote in Pirates history I’d look back on with fondness but largely just a blip.

Even when they brought him back on a minor league deal with an opt out baked in, I figured it was just extra competition, I mean the Bucs went out and signed 2 new lefties in Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza, so long shot right?

Well, all Borucki did is look like the pitcher we had in 2023 and folks, that is an arm this team would have been very foolish to let slip away.

His Spring numbers look a hell of a lot like what he did in 2023. 9 outings, 8.2 innings 5 walks, 12 K’s a 1.154 WHIP and a 1.04 ERA. Yeah, it was like, all the way back to 2023.

A 2023 that had him pitch in 38 games, 40.1 Innings, 4 walks, 33 K’s, a 0.744 WHIP (This is outstanding BTW), and a 2.45 ERA.

That’s a left handed set up man, perfectly capable of getting righties out too, but certainly a tough ask for even the best lefties in the game.

It’s a win to see him return to form, and I’m glad to see the Pirates not sweat wasting money on a guy they’ll have to cut to keep him.

3. Thomas Harrington NOT Making the Cut

Thomas Harrington will not earn a spot in the Pirates rotation to start the 2025 campaign.

I’ve talked this kid up most of the offseason and I probably will again, but for right now, let’s talk expectation for what an immediate call up would mean.

First, let’s talk innings. We all watched the club negotiate 2024 with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, and we should all remember that controlling their innings was a theme from their debuts on through the end of the season.

That’s because building up a pitcher to handle an innings load is a long term project. It took Mitch Keller almost 5 years to come close to his 200 Inning goal and while Paul Skenes has already put out his own goal of 240 innings for 2025 (he’s not going to get it FYI) it’s the club’s job to be responsible.

Thomas had 127.1 innings pitched for 2 different teams in 2023, and he followed that up with 117.1 across 3 teams including a short term IL stint in 2024.

Reasonable progression puts him right around the 150 inning mark, not unlike what the Bucs did with Skenes and Jones.

That’s not enough for a full season, UNLESS you start monitoring and limiting him from the beginning, or, don’t start him from the beginning and tramp down his innings load in the minors early on.

He’s also not as stretched out as you’d prefer for a starter to enter the season with. Meaning, there’s a very real possibility he starts the season going 4, maybe 5 innings and someone like Caleb Ferguson would have to step in to help take the outing to the back end guys.

Another way you could go is to just assume he’ll get his innings, come hell what may and know you have options for other starters to step in and finish the race, like Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft or even Johan Oviedo once he gets healthy and starts ramping back up.

2 things have to happen for this to matter.

First, he has to be good enough that you feel the need to have him part of the mix all year, and second, he has to stay healthy.

Big things to look for, man, that slider/sweeper and his pinpoint command. This is one I’ve been excited about and I’m a little sad I’ll have to wait to see it. That said, they could simply be playing a roster game in which they’d prefer to start with a deeper bullpen and they’ll call him up when they need a 5th starter, or, perhaps since he isn’t stretched out all that far, sounds like they’ll just go with Carmen Mlodzinski for a while and let it play out from there.

We could see them reverse course by the time the Pirates come home, or, it could indicate the team has their eye on a starter from somewhere else.

Reportedly, they won’t make the final roster announcements until Wednesday.

4. What Changes Would Not Making .500 Bring to the Pirates?

Well, it kind of depends on how the season goes.

Let’s say for instance the moves the Pirates made to open the season, you know, going with IKF at SS, or rostering Adam Frazier, signing Tommy Pham, not starting Harrington from the jump, blow up in their faces and as the season plays on the youngsters start making it and the team turns it around even as they fall short of that .500 mark.

To me, a scenario like this would put Cherington and Shelton in trouble.

In just about any other scenario, it’s Shelton, all day.

In fact, I see almost nothing short of a playoff run saving this job for Shelton.

Look, you’re never going to see a winning record from Shelton. He’s lost too much and he’d have to coach a good team here for 10 years to climb out of the dungeon he and this club have carved out for him. So it’s not like that part of his story is getting a facelift no matter what in 2025.

That said, the club thought they had a .500 plus team last year, and they didn’t get there. They think they do again, zero chance he gets a third with even more weapons.

5. Handedness Handicapping Position Groups?

The Pirates figure to open the season with 5 traditional OF players, and only 2 of them hit right handed, one of them is a switch hitter. The Pirates also figure to open with 6 infield options, two of which bat left handed, one of whom is a switch hitter.

So when the Pirates want to match up against a righty, they’ll be fine in the outfield, and not so much in the infield. Vice versa against lefties.

One of those options is Endy Rodriguez and when he plays 1B, chances are it would be the best time to have him start at catcher too. When Oneil Cruz needs to sit, you’d ideally have it be against a tough lefty, unfortunately his backups are Jack Suwinski and potentially Ji Hwan Bae, you know, both lefties.

From a pure roster construction standpoint, they have to use a swing guy like Jared Triolo potentially in CF as a backup here and there to try to make this work, but it’s not ideal.

Thing is, just about every hitter who didn’t make it is right handed and the thing is they’ll have to be strategic with it all year.

We could also see less traditional platooning, if for no other reason than they simply don’t have a lot of them that make sense.

This is nitpicking, but it could turn out to be frustrating as the season drags on.

Stuck in the Middle With You

3-24-25 – By Jud Verno – @JV_PITT on X

Opening day is in sight. It’s close enough to smell the peanuts and hear someone shout one of my favorite sentences: “Cold beer here”. 

Soon, we’ll be putting on some sunscreen and dusting off our baseball gloves to take to the ballpark. We’ll be refreshing X daily to get a glimpse of today’s lineup card. Some will be filling out their own score cards. 

As the sounds and optimism of spring training wind down, the opening day roster is becoming less fuzzy. Most of the spots are now clear, with only one or two spots still a mystery.

This past Saturday (March 22nd), we learned of a few more players that got optioned to minor league camp: Henry Davis, Nick Yorke and Billy Cooke.  I’d like to take a look at one of those players and how I think the Bucs are making a mistake. 

When we see that line up card on March 27th, the two names that will be behind the future Cy Young Winner, Paul Skenes will be Isiah Kiner-Falefa at short and Nick Gonzales at second. 

And it shouldn’t be.

The mistake I am talking about here? Nick Yorke should be opening the season at 2B, moving Nick the Stick to SS.

In my opinion. 

To paraphrase former President Bill Clinton, “It’s about the offense, stupid”.

Let’s start with Isiah Kiner-Falefa

IKF has carved himself a solid career and I, in no way, want to diminish that. He’s a solid all around guy to have around.

He hits a little.

Can play just about anywhere in a pinch.

And I mean anywhere.

Over his career he’s played at SS, 2B, 3B, LF, RF and CF. He’s pitched six innings. And a lot of fans won’t believe me, but he has 586 innings behind the dish. 

How he’s never played 1B is kind of a mystery and I would lay money that someday he takes an inning there. A fielder’s version of “hitting for the cycle” so to speak? 

Sounds great right? And it is, that kind of flexibility is nice to have…on the bench. 

First off, SS is simply not his best position. I don’t want to get too lost in defensive metrics in this (truth be told, Gonzales isn’t winning any Gold Gloves at SS either). IKF’s OAA (outs above average) at SS has never been great. Topping off at a high of one run, which he did twice. 

But it’s the bat folks. 

Yes, he had a fantastic half  season before the Bucs gobbled him up at the July Trade Deadline last year. That line?

.292/.338/.420  .758 OPS  with a wRC+ of 118

Sadly, that run is a complete outlier for IKF. His lifetime slash line tells a different story. 

.262/.313/.351  .664 OPS and a wRC+ of 83

If he was a wizard at SS that slash line wouldn’t be a huge problem. But he just isn’t that guy. 

OK, maybe his projections at PNC will be better  than his career mean? Here’s ZiPS projections for IKF.

.262/.307/.346  .654  wRC+ 81

With 5 HR and 18 doubles.

I understand that projections rarely play out. But at 30 years old, he’s a finished product with a history that states one very specific thing: he just isn’t a guy that will produce runs for the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Now Nick the Stick Gonzales 

As we dig into Nick’s projections, one thing to keep in mind is this is the bat that would be in the lineup anyway. The Bucs have him at 2B, which is the better overall fit, no doubt about that.  I’m not suggesting moving him to SS permanently. But until something better comes along? I think this SHOULD have been the plan. 

Can he play SS? He can. He isn’t gonna wow us but he isn’t far behind IKF at all. It’s even entirely possible that he will be a hair better moving forward considering age. 

But can I refer to the paraphrased quote above? “It’s about the offense, stupid”?

In 94 games in his first full season, Nick had a promising slash line. 

.270/.311/.398  .709  wRC+ 94

In those 94 , Nick hit 7 HR and 19 doubles. With a slight bump and 150+ games, it’s not out of the question he could have a 15-20 HR season accompanied with 30+ doubles.  I’d be over the moon if he could hit those numbers.

What do the 2025 ZiPS projections suggest? 

.264/.324/.422  .746 wRC+ 105

A solid enough line. ZiPS also projects he plays  121 games hitting  11 HR and 22 doubles. If Nick stays healthy and plays in 150+ games could that line be bumped  to 15 HR and 30 doubles? We can dream. Either way I’d be happy with that production. 

New Yorke, New Yorke

Another 2024 Trade Deadline acquisition and one that I thought was a sneaky good trade by GM Ben Cherington (credit where credit is due). The “other Nick” was at one time a universal top-100 prospect.  After losing steam and being “demoted,” some sites bumped him back on their lists after a resurgent 2024. 

The late season call up didn’t produce a large enough sample size to discuss so let’s get right to the ZiPS projections.

ZiPS has him playing 124 games:

.246/.307/.357   .665 wRC+ 91

They also have him hitting 10 HR and 24 doubles over those 124 games. 

The difference in offense isn’t huge. 5 more HR. 6 more doubles. They also have Yorke down for 11 more runs and 12 more RBI. 

It’s modest, and I get that. But there could be one or two more wins in that production. 

And even a modest bump in power puts more pressure on the opposition’s pitching staff.

What ZiPS doesn’t show? The upside that Yorke provides; the possibility that his game translates better and quicker. 

Streamers, for example, has a better projection for Yorke. They have him playing in 54 games, and if we projected that to a full season? 

.258/.324/.390  .714 wRC+ 98

Hitting 12 HR and 27 doubles.  I’m not saying he would do that but the potential to do it is real. 

So what’s my point then?  Simply stated, Nick Yorke offers something that IKF doesn’t. Offensive upside. Isn’t this the reason they acquired him in the first place? Offense? 

So why wait to get that production into the lineup when the other option has a proven and limited offensive output?

I mean, after all, “It’s about the offense, stupid.”

Hit Your Best Bat Leadoff

3-21-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With the season starting in less than a week, let’s get REALLY radical with my last pre-season article topic: Lineup Construction.

Hold on, I know what you’re thinking. “Shelton tinkers with the lineup too much. He never stays consistent with a batting order. Yadda, yadda, yadda.” 

I can’t see the value of that argument.

For the most part, batting order doesn’t have to be the same.

If you are facing a southpaw, you’re going to stack right-handed hitters.

If you’re facing a soft-tosser with a big, loopy curve or devastating changeup, maybe you sit the guy who only hits fastballs and can’t pick up soft stuff.

It’s a long season and most players need days off from time to time, so sometimes you get that patented “Shelton Sunday Special” lineup card.

Regardless, I’m not here to dissect whether or not a lineup should be consistent from game to game. I’m here to talk about why the Pirates should drop the old-school approach and move into the future, meaning batting Bryan Reynolds leadoff.

Hear me out here. I get that Reynolds has batted almost exclusively in the 2 or 3 spot the past few seasons, historically where teams slot their best hitters. I get that leadoff has been more typical for the speedy slap hitters, the Juan Pierres or Dee Strange-Gordons of the baseball world.

But, with the increasing reliance on advanced metrics, it’s clear that there are far more advantages to having your best hitter start the game for the team.

For starters, the obvious benefit of having your best hitter leading off is that they are guaranteed to get the most plate appearances on the team.

The approximate difference between leading off and hitting even third amounts to 31 less plate appearances over the course of the season. That’s 31 less times you have your best chance at getting a critical hit that could put the team over the top.

An argument made against hitting your best man first is that it provides less opportunities for him to drive in runs. You bat your power bats in the middle of the lineup and get the on-base options hitting ahead of them.

Cool. Tell me again, who led the team in on-base percentage last season?

I’ll save you a google on that one.

Reynolds provides the value at the plate for other hitters to drive him in, but also provides the value of being able to drive himself in as the dude has hit 24 or more home runs in each of the last four seasons.

He hits for average. He hits for power. And he gets on base. I wonder if there’s another team who has a guy like that, is known for their analytics and maybe also batted him almost exclusively at leadoff last year?

Now, I’m not directly comparing the two but, respective to each team, you’re looking at the best player offensively. And for a Pirates offense which has been among the worst in baseball the past few years, they will need to take every advantage they can get in order to get ahead.

Shelton isn’t going to keep the same lineup from game-to-game and I don’t expect him to but it would be statistically better for the team if instead of toying with the likes of Tommy Pham or Jack Suwinski in the 1 spot, he just designated it to the best bat on the team and waited for the benefits to roll in.

Pirates Pitching Depth Already Being Tested

3-19-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Derek Shelton made news today when he announced to the gaggle of reporters “He’s (Jared Jones) not going to make his next start in Spring Training. That’s for sure, I think with that being said, we’re going to have to look at what happens going into the season.”

To add to that, Tom Tomczyk said, “When any pitcher comes to the medical staff with a concern of not recovering well, we want to be thorough, we want to be comprehensive. I don’t want to be an alarmist at this point in time. I want to emphasize that we are still learning as much as we possibly can as we’ve done over the years, as you’ve seen.

Now, that’s the official poop.

Jared Jones is done pitching this Spring. Jared Jones has had one imaging done, and will have/is having another done along with a second opinion.

That’s all publicly known, and reported.

Now, I’ve heard from two sources, the first scan does not indicate UCL damage (the target of Tommy John procedure). This doesn’t mean the second opinion would concur, it just means this second look is likely not to confirm all our worst suspicions but more to ensure it can be ruled out and sure up any diagnosis to properly lay out a rehab timetable.

Either way, Jared Jones is likely to miss significant time. Hence, the title of this piece.

The calls for Ben Cherington to sell from his expansive list of pitching prospects in an effort to bring in bats this offseason has been loud. Paul Skenes and Jared Jones alone are a big reason for the increased urgency to surround the pitching with more offense, which makes total sense to 99% of everyone, and yet, we were just hand delivered a big reason why the Pirates, and indeed most team executives don’t see it that way.

Add this to the Bailey Falter slow start and soreness and you have a recipe for suddenly not having youngsters waiting in the wings, but forced into action.

All of the sudden it’s not so much how will Thomas Harrington or Bubba Chandler break through, and more, I really hope they’re ready.

I can honestly tell you I think the Horwitz trade for Luis Ortiz and two other young pitchers will turn out fine for both sides. I can honestly say I think the Quinn Priester for Nick Yorke deal will turn out well for both sides.

I can also honestly say this position of seemingly inexhaustible depth is less so today than it was when it became a narrative and hold onto your hat, the GM might actually have outsmarted us by not rashly jumping on a deal to thin the herd even more.

Think about it, we’re one worrisome ache away from seeing this rotation start out with two soft tossing lefty veterans, a stud 2nd year ace and a veteran middle rotation righty with nothing but a bucket full of talented rookies to back it.

Doesn’t mean it can’t succeed. Doesn’t even mean it should be seen as unlikely they do just fine. But it sure as hell should make them less comfortable to pretend they have the kind of riches here to just move them for a potential 3 WAR upgrade in the field.

All of this points back to the exact reason spending money in free agency should have been the preferable path for this club. Filling the roster in areas of need should never have felt like it had to come from this depth as much as it did, unfortunately as a Pirates fan, it felt like the only way we’d see it.

Now as we sit a week before opening day, it appears they’ve instead chosen the “none” option.

Let’s not pronounce Jared Jones out for the year before we know it to be true. That said, let’s use this situation to remind ourselves just how fragile even the deepest of depths is in MLB.

You know, before next offseason when we once again tell the team exactly how to handle the completely obvious ways to fix this team. Insert sarcasm font.

More to come, obviously, as this process plays out.

Bucs Prospect Watch: Jhonny Severino & Duce Gourson

3-19-25 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

Jhonny Severino was perhaps among the most intriguing & somehow stealthiest breakout in the organization. Duce Gourson is one of the more under the radar draft class members in 2024. So where do they stand in the pecking order of Bucs Prospects heading into 2025? We will try to parse that out and touch on what makes these two players worthy of a Bucs Prospect Watch look.

Jhonny B. Goode

Severino checks a few integral boxes. He is young at just 19, he is big, listed at 6’2” & 185lbs, there is plenty of space to pack pass on that frame. Just applying the eye test here, I’d say there is no way he was 185lbs right now either. All one has to do is take a look at Orioles uber-prospect Samuel Basallo to realize that these listed weights are eye-wash. If that kid is 180lbs, I will print this article out, slather it in hot sauce and eat it. Moving on from that aside, Jhonny had a standout year at the Complex level when it comes to production. Take a look at what he did with his 220 PAs.

10 HR, 12 2B, 3 3B, 39 runs scored, 41 RBI, 12 steals, slashed .291/.373/.545, .918 OPS

Pretty darn impressive production that had him tied for the most homers and in the top 15 by wOBA and wRC+ in the league. Impressive enough that he earned himself a call-up to A ball as the calendar flipped from July to August 2024.

Jhonny Dangerously

Upon arriving in A ball, Pirate fans began to see why Severino is very much still a project. 

The very alluring 11.8/15.9 BB/K% ratio from the Complex deteriorated to an eyebrow raising 6.5/30.1 BB/K% ratio. His swinging strike% leapt from 10.8 to 18.1. The contact% dipped a full ten percentage points from 76.9 to 66.9%. And the batted ball data leaves quite a bit to be desired:

EV: 83.6
90%: 101
MAX: 106.7
Brl%: 4.2
Hard Hit%: 30.6
xDamage: .477

While the three levels of EV data are all underwhelming, the xDamage is an encouraging throughline. In my opinion, this was more or less adjustment period lump-taking. He chased too much, well above what would be MLB average, and whiffed too much. Simply put, the transition is not always easy.

Despite the struggles, Severino still produced well at A ball. The swing & miss exposed his developing hit tool, but the power is real. His .263 ISO, .357 wOBA, .477 xDamage, & 119 wRC+ in the face of his struggles is encouraging.

Not without warts, but Jhonny Severino is one of the more intriguing bats in the organization. 2025 should be pivotal for him. Should he adjust quickly through A ball and A+, his stock will soar. Even if he does not, he will be just 20 years old. The tools are enticing & his leash will be long.

Who is Duce Gourson?

Ethan “Duce” Gourson was selected 264th overall by the Pirates out of UCLA. Gourson started all 3 years for the Bruins before entering the 2024 draft. In his college career Gourson posted a .918 OPS, 21 HRs, stole 28 bases, and slashed .300/.435/.484 across 786 PAs.

We’ve got limited professional data to draw from on Gourson, he played just 22 total pro games. 11 games in A ball, where he was clearly more advanced than his peers, and 11 games in A+. Greensboro saw Gourson meet his match as he struggled to produce. However, we can still draw some encouraging signs from these stops. Particularly when looking at his plate approach.

Across both A/A+ Gourson only chased outside of the zone a paltry 14% of pitches he offered at and had a 9.6% swinging strike rate to go with it. Along with his zone judgement, his contact rate was 74% & his zone contact rate settled at 83.6%. Needless to say, his small early returns indicate that the approach and bat to ball skill from UCLA showed up in his first taste of professional ball.

Now each of these stops saw him accrue minimal batted ball events, probably too small for any batted ball data to be very “sticky.” But what data is available from Bradenton had him with an MLB average (89 mph) EV with below MLB average 90th/MAX EVs. We will get a lot more information on Duce this year, to be sure. There may not be much over-the-fence thump here, but for a 9th round selection, there is plenty to be excited about in Gourson’s future development. I am looking forward to seeing his advanced approach and ability to make contact play out over a full season.



Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Can the Pirates get lucky?

3-17-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s St. Patty’s Day, and aside from being my cat’s birthday, a fun holiday that tends to bring everyone not on the set of Boondock Saints together.

It’s also got a theme of luck running through the entire premise, and honestly, the Pirates could use some.

It’s one thing to have your 1:1 stud pitcher come to the league and act as such, it’s another thing entirely to have some dude you picked up in the 5th round make it and thrive. That takes some luck.

The NL Central this year is muddy. The Cubs on paper should win, the Brewers now own the Devil magic the Cardinals used to have sole possession of. The Reds brought in a legendary coach, and the Pirates, well, they decided largely to just keep growing at their own pace.

Bucs have the best rotation on paper, Cubs have the best offense, but all in all, we could see a spread of 10 games from top to bottom if everyone competes to their ability.

The Pirates need luck, and I don’t mean like how the ball bounces, although that never hurts, but they need to get unexpected offense from unexpected sources. They need a guy like Jack to hit 25 bombs after being almost completely written out of the plan. They need a guy like Henry to look a lot more like a 1:1 and tap into some of his own power.

Let’s dig in today as we start winding down Spring Training and ramp up into the 2025 campaign.

1. Weak to Strong?

The Pirates have done what they do.

They brought in low level free agents, either looking for a bounce back, or to keep the performance right where it’s been. Guys who will prevent younger players from making the team, but unless they severely change course, guys who are almost set up to provide weak resistance to said youngsters catching and passing them as the season goes on.

In my mind, this team regardless of any theoretical deals at the deadline will get stronger as the year goes on.

I see guys like Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, Thomas Harrington, Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, Ji Hwan Bae, and more, starting in AAA. Maybe I missed one here, someone like Bae could certainly earn his shot out of Spring, but my assumption is that the team largely takes the chalk route and there are very few if any controversial choices.

As the season plays out, my hope would be we see guys like Adam Frazier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Tommy Pham, Andrew Heaney, get surpassed and add these names to the block. That would mean both that they played well enough to have value, and that the kids played well enough to still push them aside.

That’s best case scenario of course. Injury could create opportunity, so could overt sucking. Regardless, the better talent being held back, can’t last and this team should be stronger in August than they are in April.

Health of course assumed.

2. Can We Stop Creating a “Problem”?

Since it became clear that Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis were both catchers and both had interesting bats, fans have tried their damnedest to make this the existential question of what’s coming.

Then they went ahead and added Joey Bart who decided he was going to hit like the top prospect he used to be back when people were asking what they’d do with Buster and Bart together.

Since 2023 I’ve said the same thing. When it’s a legitimate problem, I’ll spend time thinking about it.

Last year, Henry collapsed offensively and Endy missed the entire season with TJ surgery. Bart came in and excelled offensively.

This year, it looks like all 3 could contribute offensively, but it’s still not an in your face issue. Bart has done more than enough to be the opening day starter. Henry has taken some positive steps, but he’s still unproven. Endy is recovered, but has very few at bats under his belt to assume he’ll jump right back to MLB.

If there is a point where all 3 are in the league together, one or two of them will play somewhere else. Bart could DH, Endy could DH, play 1B or maybe even outfield.

I’d just like to pause here. Think about what it would mean for this team to have 2 bats you know you aren’t counting on suddenly show up and look indispensable. Think about what these 3 being bats you have to have in the lineup would do to this lineup.

Yeah, you have to push aside where they play. They won’t all catch. But, if this happens, folks, it’s anything but a problem.

This isn’t a problem until this team is so stacked, so filled to the gills with hitters, so stocked at every position these guys could conceivably play that you’re forced to either let one rot or trade them to loosen things up.

Even then, Joey Bart is 28 years old. He has 2 more years of arbitration. Meaning, unless the Pirates were to extend Bart, he likely has 1 or 2 more years here in Pittsburgh.

Which also means you might need Henry and Endy just for catcher right?

This is all a theoretical “battle”, it’s like doing particle research in a beamline. You know what you think you could see, but the likelihood of actually seeing that result, well, let’s just say it’s a finding you just hope you actually have one day.

Let it play out. And call me when it’s an actual problem, cause right now, it just isn’t.

3. First Base, Last Choice

The Pirates have the guy they see as the starting first baseman in 2025 in Spencer Horwitz. He’s hurt, but he’ll likely get in some games late in Spring and then head out to rehab the rest of the way in AAA.

So, when the Pirates make their choice for who is going to get the lion’s share of first base reps, there’s a very solid chance they want it to be someone they can move on from. They didn’t bring Horwitz in here to ride the pine for DJ Stewart for instance.

They have options. Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, Jared Triolo, Matt Gorski, don’t shoot the messenger but Adam Frazier, Jack Suwinski apparently, and yes, DJ Stewart.

Jack is a stretch to me, I’m not sure I see a move like this making sense unless his bat proves it has to be in the lineup. Frazier isn’t a good fit there, but he can and has played the position. Nick and Billy are right handed, and I’m not sure they’d see the at bats you’d like them to.

I’m leaning DJ Stewart. First, he’s seen a lot of playing time this Spring over there, he’d need a 40-man spot and if they want to move on as soon as Horwitz is ready, you’re out essentially an NRI. If he actually hits, hey, he can play OF too. Maybe even a left handed DH.

I’d take a shot here, long shot as it is.

I’d hate to use Yorke or Cook there and demote them to bring on Horwitz, it seems like it would almost set him up for angry fans who somehow can see Cook (26) as a prospect but Horwitz (27) as qualifying for AARP.

The Pirates need a patch here. So use a player perfectly suited to be one.

4. David Bednar….Reliever

I’m told that David Bednar will start the season as the closer of this team, but the leash will be much shorter this year.

That’s not to say David is the closer or he gets cut, it’s to say David will start as the closer and if he is shaky, the team will make a switch regardless of how apparent an alternative is.

Dennis Santana, Colin Holderman or maybe even newcomer Justin Lawrence have a shot to step in. I make no claim as to how successful they’d be, but there is a very real possibility that David Bednar winds up being a reliever they use like any other in which case 2025 is assuredly his last in Pittsburgh as there’s no chance they’ll give him another raise in arbitration.

Of course, he could also return to form and then it’ll be another tough decision. Do you take him to arb 3 or do you trade him off and get something back for him? I can’t see extending him, not at this point, maybe if he got here with far fewer hiccups, but not now.

Bednar will make 5.9 million this year. I’d just like to say, if the Pirates signed a reliever who has 84 career saves spanning a 5-6 year career and pay him 5.9 million to either close or simply add to bullpen depth, we’re probably pretty happy. So I’m not going to scrutinize what he makes, or assume it means he has to be a certain role on this club. It’s 6 million for a veteran reliever, one who has a lot of attractive career stats.

That’s the story.

Hometown guy stopped mattering when he became a guy you’d be foolish to extend. Yeah, it’s still there, but it won’t keep him in a role, or on this team longer term. As part of the bullpen mix, he’s welcome. As the locked on closer all season long regardless of what he does, yeah, I’m out.

Sounds like the Pirates agree.

5. Another Way to Augment…

There is something that happens when a franchise feels they’re getting close to being competitive we rarely discuss.

We rarely discuss it, because it’s rarely on the table.

Infusing top prospects into your effort.

Now, I’m not talking about the Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington types, those guys have already gone through the levels to get themselves on the doorstep and ready to contribute at some point this year. That stuff happens as course.

I’m talking more about recognizing what your team does and doesn’t have and taking away some of the norms on some of your more exciting youngsters regardless of where they are currently.

Impact bats and arms matter, and when your team is in a dogfight and trading for what you need is unappealing for one reason or another, you might see them consider pushing the gas on guys like Termarr Johnson, or Konnor Griffin.

Konnor making MLB this year is an insane idea, I get that, but that doesn’t mean the urgency to let him rise at his own pace should be dismissed. If he doesn’t need half a year in Bradenton, get him to Greensboro. If Greensboro doesn’t pose a challenge, see if you can get him to AA this year. From there, he’s a step away and you accelerate drastically his arrival.

Convention tells you to be careful with an 18 year old, and everyone’s Spidey sense would be going off like crazy, but to hold him back artificially is to cut into how long, if at all, he and Paul Skenes can be on the same team.

We’ve seen this already. The Pirates moved Henry Davis through the ranks partially because he was unchallenged, and partially because this team desperately needed a hitter. You can argue it hurt him and his development, but maybe that would have happened anyway, it’s not like AAA challenges him now either you know?

Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington themselves have flown through the system and put themselves in this position.

Ben Cherington is going to have to make a decision. Is it better to get what you can here as soon as possible, or is it better to hold some talent back, and hope they take the ball from this group and advance it forward.

Anyone in this organization that wants to look like they can help this club, in my mind, get out of the way and let them.

Again, this is a very difficult ask. Griffin is talented as hell, does not have the body or mind of an 18 year old, but he’s still got a lot of work to do, I’m just asking if it looks like he isn’t being challenged, challenge him. The standard marching orders that this needs to take 4-5 years to MLB ready an 18 year old should be challenged.

If the Pirates are waiting on Termarr Johnson to become a perfect player, well, don’t. Wait for a bat that you could use, challenge him, and don’t hesitate to add him to the mix if it makes sense.

The Pirates have for my entire life neglected to add significantly in free agency, they’ve also failed to make meaningful trades more than a handful of times. So what I’m asking is, you can’t buy power, can we allow it to make it up here to help when it shows itself?

Jack Brannigan is another interesting player. He’ll start in AA Altoona this year. He’s a slick fielding 3B who has hit for power since being drafted. The Pirates have Ke’Bryan Hayes who’s health is an issue. Jared Triolo who thus far can field the position but the bat has not warmed to the task.

I’d suggest if Hayes goes down again, Brannigan should be considered, even while they have Triolo. A team like this can’t settle for getting underwhelming offense in exchange for a solid glove.

I guess what I’m really saying here is, let the player tell you when he’s ready, not the timeline you went in with.

Again, we’ve seen this on the pitching side, and it’s time to have more urgency about getting more hitters here to match up with them.

What if Some of These Bad Hitters, Um, Aren’t Bad?

3-16-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Did you ever meet someone new at work and they just rub you the wrong way?

It’s not like you had a fight with them or they called you every name in the book, there’s just something they said, or a look they gave or they have an idea that makes it seem like you’ve been twiddling your thumbs for 8 years doing things the “wrong” way all this time.

Ever have that experience where you realize you were wrong, or at the very least misread them in that initial meeting?

This is the story of onboarding prospects onto your roster.

Some guys come in and hit right away, their position opens up for them like Moses stood there with his staff making sure he had a wide berth to take it over and own it, and they just seem to fit in the room like they grew up there.

It’s like the new guy coming in with a ton of experience and knowledge, a temperament to use those skills without showboating and oh yeah they bring in great coffee and pastries for everyone too.

Other guys, well, they have a hard time fitting in. What they’re supposed to be good at, someone else has been good at it for a very long time, and aren’t ready to stop. The couple projects he was given to start, he screws the pooch with and in general it just looks like it’s never going to happen.

This is a much more frequent experience for young players. Things that worked for them in college (AKA AAA) suddenly don’t work anymore. Lessons they were taught, well, they flat out don’t apply here in the real world, and frankly, it feels like everyone on both sides of the field knew they never would but nobody bothered to ever say anything.

I try to put prospect on boarding into real world context like this because simply, it’s really hard as a fan of any sport to truly allow for the process.

There’s never a good time to struggle. There’s never a time when your team is fine with you struggling mightily at the MLB level. Even if you team knows they don’t have a winning squad, they probably don’t want you up in MLB struggling and removing the shine on your rose.

All off season, the Pirates roster has been clearly deficient on the offensive side.

I’ve done this too. I’ve said it was light, I’ve shown it was light, and until I see different, I believe it’s light. Light on power, light with on base percentage. Light with sure things.

Thing is though, they’ve also got a lot of players who really could emerge this year, and I mean guys that fans have long since burried.

Henry Davis, Jack Suwinski, and Ji Hwan Bae have put together very promising Spring Training efforts early on. That is what it is, it’s a positive Spring performance. Until it’s more than that, you really can’t call it anything more.

What they’ve done isn’t enough to nudge your buddy at the bar and tell them you told them so. It’s not enough to forget all the struggles they’ve had.

It won’t turn everything around for them on a dime, or guarantee them a spot on the roster, but it is exactly what you have to do. It’s a step you must take to have an opportunity to take the next one.

This is baseball folks.

Andy Van Slyke, my favorite player as I’ve made no secret of, started his career in St. Louis in 1983. He wasn’t horrible, wasn’t great, in fact, the reason he was available via trade was the Cardinals saw him as a very borderline player to actually take to arbitration. Again, he was ok, looked like he was probably an MLB player, just maybe not a starter.

He was traded to the Pirates of course in 1987 and given opportunity to start, well, he took off.

This is many times how it works. In fact, the first time Van Slyke topped an .800 OPS was his 5th season. The first time he hit more than 15 homeruns was also his 5th season.

We Pirates fans don’t remember all that other stuff, because he came here ready to play, trained and mentally he had the added knowledge that being “good” wasn’t going to get him paid.

If you give up on every hitter who doesn’t look like they’re ready to take over the league in their rookie season, you wind up missing out on guys who take more time to get there, and if you aren’t going to buy your stars, you better make sure you’re patient enough to grow your own.

Now, none of those three I listed is a lock to make it. That’s not the argument I’m making, but I am saying take caution in pronouncing prospects dead prematurely.

I’d also say, if 1 or 2 of these guys breaks through in 2025 the entire lineup will look and function a lot better than any of us see it going.

This is baseball. It’s not like any of the other sports, it’s why we love it, and why we hate it too. Prospects take all kinds of different paths to the league. Some are messy. Some shoot out the gates like Jack, then get smacked in the face by the league knocking them back all the way to level one again.

Some get called up too early, asked to play out of position, coached to play away from their strengths, allowed to thrive on bad habits in the minors that surely won’t work in the Bigs. Others simply don’t believe they need any coaching and despite the talent they never move out of the starting gate.

For fans, I say this a lot, but it bears repeating. Criticize these guys all you like, scrutinize their play, what they need to improve, what they need to simply eliminate from their game, whatever, but realize for some of these guys, they’ll follow 5 or 6 different treasure maps before they finally crack through, when they do, you won’t care about how it happened.

This is a big year for more than a few Pirates youngsters, if they can manage to have a couple of them show up, this team is in a lot better position than many pundits would tell you.

You may have already made up your mind about guys like this, just remember, being cheap isn’t the only reason baseball’s ramp up payment structure for kids is built this way for every team. By year 3-4 you should have some clue about this player. Thumbs up or down by year 3-4 and then you have to start paying or move on.

The Pirates are on the verge of either developing a few guys who took a bit longer than hoped, or, potentially moving off an “Andy Van Slyke” to some other team. They could just realize despite their best efforts they just aren’t MLB players too, either way, that’s where we are with some of these guys, and know what, all we can do is ask them to show up when they get opportunity.

That’s what all three of these guys have done this Spring.

As compared to the alternative, yeah, it’s better.

Run It Back, Jack!

3–14-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

There were a number of offensive pieces in the Pirates system who underperformed expectations in 2024 but one who fell off perhaps harder and faster than any other was Jack Suwinski.

Jack has notably drawn the ire of many fans over the years. His tepid approach both at the plate and on the field have demonstrated a hesitancy by Suwinski to fully commit to a free-swinging, three-true outcomes bat and a take-charge outfielder who is willing to take control in center field.

Following an encouraging sophomore season in 2023 where Jack improved upon nearly all of his metrics, including clubbing 24 home runs over 144 games, Suwinski dropped off a cliff in 2024, posting a paltry .588 OPS over 277 plate appearances on the season after a combined .758 mark over his first two big league seasons.

In franchise history, only six players have had more homers through their first 250 games as a Pirate than Suwinski (45): Brian Giles (64), Dick Stuart (55), Bob Robertson (52), Ralph Kiner (51), Jason Thompson (48) and Jason Bay (47).

So, why the steep decline in production?

One of the things that appeared to be evident in his approach was intention to strike out less as he became significantly more wary of strike 3 calls after posting a 32.2% K rate the prior season.

Unfortunately, strikeouts are an inevitability in today’s power market and while, ideally, he would be able to reign in the strikeouts while still hitting for power, it’s just not in his skillset. 

So while his K% dropped to 28.5%, his overall production likewise suffered as he was swinging more often at bad pitches just to put the ball in play and making poor contact. 

His GB/FB rate in 2023 was 0.52 but jumped to 1.30 in 2024 with his barrel rate (8.8% down from 15.7% in ‘23) and hard hit rate (38.2% down from 43.4%) both taking a dive – not the recipe for success in today’s game. Jack has to be focused on a 3-true outcomes approach, something that he has, at times, been among the top in baseball at achieving:

So far this spring, he looks more confident and comfortable overall. Maybe it’s due to an offseason where he (like many other hitters) made tweaks to his swing to become more efficient at the plate, or maybe it’s the work with new hitting coach, Matt Hague. 

Either way, he enters play today with a .320/.393/.560 line, hitting for hard, loud outs and getting under the ball more often than not. Compare that to last spring when he slashed .269/.296/.558 but was pulling the ball nearly as much (29.3% compared to 52.9% thus far this spring), which is where his power excels.

If he can manage to keep this going into the regular season – even in a reduced role given the addition of Tommy Pham – maybe he can run it back this year.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – It’s Not So Early Anymore

3-10-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Spring Training takes a turn this week.

Just about every week of Spring Training represents a different level of competition. A different mindset for entering these games.

While most of the time leading up to now has been cloaked in the specter of “they’re working on something” or, “pitchers are way ahead of hitters” or, pick your cliche for the early Spring contests, now it shifts to playing closer to full games. Starters trying to reach the 5th or 6th inning. Hitters seeing said pitcher 2 or 3 times.

It also starts to at least create conversations when that NRI gets a start now. We’ve seen a ton of DJ Stewart this Spring, and if it continues from here on out, well, you won’t have to guess how seriously they’re considering him as a first base patch.

If a player is still in camp at this point, and they’re playing, solid chance they’re in the running. Cuts matter now, they’re no longer the easy let’s get this guy over to MiLB camp before he gets hurt and starts accruing MLB service time cuts.

Bottom line, it starts getting real now.

That’s not to say nothing was gained by anyone in the first few weeks, or that nothing you saw before this week mattered, it’s just to say as the Spring progresses you require less and less filtering to know what you’re seeing.

1. The Opening Day Roster isn’t Final

Whatever roster the Pirates land on after the last pitch of Spring Training is not the roster they’ll finish the season with.

Now, that is painfully obvious, but it needs said because so many people expend boatloads of energy actively fighting about the last few spots.

Often, the anger is a direct player comparison. Let’s say Adam Frazier makes the team, a very good bet since they went out and signed him. Now he’s going to be directly compared to a guy like Nick Yorke. Is Nick a better player right now? I mean, I personally think so. But it isn’t always about that. The team may see Frazier getting like 10 at bats a week as a fill in, and for Adam, that’s fine, for Nick, not so much. As the season plays out, decisions like this will almost entirely be forgotten. In fact, this is the single biggest misconception fans have.

Very rarely is your 26-man your best 26 players.

Early on, there could be decisions made in the bullpen spawned by options. When you start to amass the group that’s going to form the bulk of your bullpen innings, you very often make the assumption you’ll need innings from almost all of them, and you know some of them are disposable.

Meaning, you take a guy North because he has no options, you think he’ll provide you some valuable innings and if you choose to DFA him now, those valuable innings are going to come from someone else, but you’ve likely lost those 20, 30, 40 innings you hoped to get from that fella.

Do a ton of that, deal with injuries and poor performances and well, come July you’ll be scouring the waiver wire hoping to find a non-corpse to help you out for a series.

Reality dictates you’ll wind up doing some of that anyway, so you make a decision early on to take the lesser player North, hope he does better than you assumed but get that set of innings out of him before ultimately switching to one of those other options. Maybe you use them to eat junk innings in blowouts, maybe you use him early before hitters get their timing all the way back, maybe it explodes and you cut the guy in 2 weeks. All possible outcomes you know about going into it.

Now, does that mean say Joey Wentz “beat out” Kyle Nicolas? I mean, technically, but lets just say it’s not a side by side comparison of which one will do more in their remaining career, or even who likely contributes more this season. It just means they want to make sure they get the 25-30 innings for sure they wanted and needed to get out of Wentz. Well, try to.

This doesn’t mean you have to like every decision they make. Some players don’t deserve even that level of grace, and most of the time, the team will make that clear by who they do wind up cutting, see Yohan Ramirez…

Don’t get me wrong, some of these decisions blow up in a team’s face and sometimes teams hang on too long trying to be right, or valuing that 5-10 more innings they hoped they’d see before pulling the rip cord.

I’m just saying, it’s not always this guy is better than that guy, in fact depending on the position I’d almost say it rarely is.

2. Last Year’s Stats

The perception of a player is very often dictated by their stats the year before. When you’re talking about young players, man, that can really be deceiving.

Let’s say you have a guy like Nick Gonzales. Fairly solid rookie campaign by most accounts, but he only managed a mid .600’s OPS, which is a below average place to be. He handled second base well, dealt with an injury, fought for opportunity and ultimately put together something that he and the team felt pretty good about.

But those stats don’t account for pitchers not having a book on him early on, or his struggles once they did, or his pushback on the new form of attack or his ability to put his bat on the ball in a big situation for a productive out.

Sure, all that stuff contributes to his overall stats, but when you’re trying to predict what you’re going to get out of him in 2025, well, it’s insufficient.

He’ll enter this year with a “book”, but that book will already be outdated because pitchers don’t know what he worked on in the offseason. He’s got a baseline laid from 2024, a low water mark he now has to best, because what was good for a rookie, is likely not good enough for a 2nd year player. Interesting is no longer good enough.

If he’s made an adjustment to stop getting beat on a slider away, pitchers will adjust and bust him up and in, is he ready for it?

It’s nice to know his stats from last year, it gives you a look at what could be, but it also doesn’t start becoming predictive until he’s laid down 3-4, even 5 years of stats, like Bryan Reynolds where you now expect his performance.

The way baseball works, by the time you get there, people are already worried about you being traded, extended, or if it took you long enough to get there, you could be in danger of aging out before you even finish arbitration.

Similarly, reading off the cumulative stats of minor league players is silly on it’s face. To just call it misleading is selling it far short. Take a guy like Billy Cook, he’s 26 years old and he’s spent 4 years in the minors. Struggling at times, having some results in others and finally looking a lot more like a player in 2024 especially at the AAA level both for Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

His cumulative stats are rather uninspiring, his 2024 numbers are exciting.

Neither on their own are close to the whole story, but when a guy takes a step like Cook did, you almost have to find out where that heel turn happened, and really examine the player he became, rather than accounting for the entire journey. Like, you take a trip in your car to the beach and you wash your car when you get there to get all the bugs and tar chips off your vehicle. You’re looking for a fresh start, you aren’t looking to relive every cicada you smashed on I-95 or every Racoon you accidentally re-killed on the berm of the highway. Some of those bugs for minor leaguers live in High A or Double A.

This works the other way too. Just because a guy had great numbers in AA somewhere doesn’t mean he gets 3 more to replicate them at a higher level.

3. Should We Worry About Heaney?

I mean, no, not yet.

He has an extremely translatable record of providing innings, limiting walks, eating innings and, well, being average. This isn’t the type of guy who is going to hold off a charging kid, but he’s a guy with a skill set this team lacks, starting pitchers who have thrown 160+ innings in MLB while keeping his stats in the average to slightly above area.

That’s why he’s here. Not because they think he’s better than Bubba. Not because they can now trade someone else. He’s here because aside from Mitch Keller, they simply don’t have guys who have thrown a ton of innings. Doesn’t mean Paul Skenes won’t take a huge jump this year or Jared Jones will give you more than he did, just means those are maybes and hopes, this guy has and if given the ball enough, will again.

I wouldn’t worry about him at all, especially as he continually tells you he’s just getting it dialed in after a late start to Spring.

This is a guy who is going to go out there and sometimes give you 4 innings and leave with a 6 run deficit, other times he’ll give you 6 and have only given up 2 runs. He’ll give up hits, he’ll rarely walk you, and more than anything, he’ll leave you in a position to compete for the outcome of the game.

Truthfully, he’s a guy with so much history, it’s very hard to assume he’ll be much more or less than he’s ever been. That’s going to be a guy who competes, and gets you results more often than he doesn’t.

A very nice to have low water mark for a stable of youngsters itching to get their career started.

Hear Andrew tell you himself about how Spring goes for him….

https://streamable.com/m/andrew-heaney-discusses-his-spring-outing?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

4. Tsung-Che Cheng Makes His Mark

Cheng was added to the 40-man in December of 2023 following a successful burst through Greensboro and finishing in Altoona. As with many international signings, the clock for protection from the Rule 5 expired before his journey to MLB was realized.

Signed in 2019, the Taiwanese youngster is now 23 years old, coming off a season that saw him struggle in Altoona and thrive in his end of the season promotion to AAA Indianapolis.

He has tools as evidenced by his scouting grades, Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 55 and he’s coming into his own at the right time for a team that simply doesn’t have a lot of potentials to fill the SS position on this club, especially close to making it.

Of course he has competition, Liover Peguero is still around, but he’s struggled to make the jump himself and his time on the 40-man has to start providing something for the big club or passing him by won’t be much more than a blink.

Cheng is exciting. He’s fast, he has a really good contact skill and his swing is simplified almost to the point of looking casual. He can field the position, improving one of his more glaring issues toward the end of last year which was moving to his right with range. Aside from hitting the baseball I’m not sure you could ask for a more positive aspect of his game to improve.

I’m encouraged by the Spring he’s had so far, and he’s absolutely going to get more time in AAA to keep making his case, but Tsung-Che Cheng could be a missing piece most fans have long since stopped paying attention to.

5. Jack and Bae

Unless the Pirates go out and get another outfielder, it’s really starting to feel like Jack Suwinski or Ji-hwan Bae are going to make this club. Is this the 4th OF spot, or the starter with Pham moving to the bench? Who knows.

Both of these players have had more than a shot to win a spot or keep one more accurately, but they both have skills that this team is really short on.

Jack obviously is power. Bae, speed.

Jack’s power is sapped by lack of contact. Bae’s speed is sapped by his poor jumps and not being on base enough to begin with.

That said, both of these guys have really shown up this Spring. All the grain of salt stuff I talked about earlier applies, but you can only perform in the situations you’re put in and both of these guys have looked different.

Each is sporting a swing change, each has altered their approach at the dish, both can play all 3 outfield spots. Bae can play a little 2B, Jack is working on adding 1B to his bag of tricks.

I’m confident we’ll see both of them in Pittsburgh as we play this season out.

Regardless of your feelings before the season, it’s hard to deny how different each of them look.

Recently it was reported that the Pirates offered Alex Verdugo 8 million to play in Pittsburgh this year. He didn’t take it and kept flirting so the Pirates pulled the trigger on Tommy Pham and this has left the door cracked for a lefty to make the club.

One of these guys should probably make the club out of camp. The power need to me is bigger than the speed, so if all things are equal, I’d lean Jack, but these are two guys many fans have pronounced dead, so either resurrecting their career in 2025 would be a huge bonus.

All we can hope is that final cuts are very hard for this franchise.

The Most Interesting Pirates Camp Battles, and Potential Fallout for Each

3-8-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

There are camp battles every year. No matter how bad or good your team looks, there’s a solid chance you’ve seen some positions at least intrigue you.

This season is a little different, because even as you acknowledge they don’t have the offense on paper, they also have 5-6 players with MLB experience, or at the very least look like they might be ready for a chance.

So let’s walk through the 5 camp battles that interest me most, and how the dust might settle after the club makes their initial decisions.

Bullpen

A huge category, for obvious reasons. I mean, if you don’t have 5 or 6 guys you think could have made the bullpen out of camp, chances are you are 8-10 arms short of what you’ll ultimately need to manage the season.

Let’s start here, you get to have 13 pitchers max, you can have 12 if you choose to go with an extra position player, and early in the season, perhaps that’s what the Pirates will do, but I personally am going with the assumption they bring 13.

Take out the 5 spots for starters and assume they’ll be Andrew Heaney, Bailey Falter, Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones.

Easy right?

Well, maybe as a starting point, yeah.

Now the bullpen.

Lets start with the guys they almost have to bring North because of options and expected performance. And in case you stopped math in like 4th grade, remember, we have 8 spots.

This gives you David Bednar, Dennis Santana, Colin Holderman, Caleb Ferguson, Tim Mayza and Justin Lawrence who just got here via waiver claim.

That’s 6 of the 8 and 2 of them are left handed.

Next up we have to look at the guys who have no options, or are NRI’s who likely have opt outs. That list looks like Joey Wentz, Carson Fulmer, Peter Strzelecki and Yohan Ramirez. Of these, Joey Wentz is probably the most interesting. Wentz being a lefty, may not have a spot because the Pirates already have 2 in that group we just spoke to, but he’s also not a guy you’d happily just let walk and sending him down may very well lead to losing him. We’ll have to see how he performs, but he’s in the running. Wentz and Strzelecki are already on the 40-man. On the 40-man with no options or not on the 40-man with no MiLB deal in place is a very uneasy place to be unless you are a lock to make it. None of these guys are.

Now lets move on to guys on the 40-man, with options who are in the running for a spot, but because of their ability to start in AAA, they may lose out to a guy the team just isn’t ready to let go from our last section. Kyle Nicolas, Chase Shugart, Carmen Mlodzinski (who the team is stretching out to start potentially), and I suppose we could toss in Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft.

Of these, you have to believe Nicolas, Shugart and Mlodzinski lead the way as far as opportunity goes.

If I had to guess now, those final two spots come out of these last two sections and I’d probably go with Mlodzinski, and Wentz.

We also have a block of NRI’s… Let’s start with guys who have MiLB deals and could stay even if they don’t make the team, Ryan Borucki, Tanner Rainey, and Burch Smith. The first two should be considered real possibilities. Again, the way they signed though might push them to AAA to start.

Now NRI’s with options, Ryder Ryan, Isaac Mattson, Eddy Yean and Hunter Stratton. I don’t think we’ll see any of these guys break camp, but we could see any or all of them called on at some point.

Catcher

Here’s the good news, the Pirates have 4 catchers who wouldn’t embarrass you if they made the team. Joey Bart, Jason Delay, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez.

Of those 4, Jason Delay offers the least with the bat, but he’s a defensive specialist.

This battle is ongoing. Davis, Endy, and Bart are all hitting. Bart is undoubtedly the starter, but Joey has never in his career caught more than 93 games.

In other words, this isn’t a typical starter/backup relationship here. They need a guy who can play 3-4 times a week. If both the back up and Bart hit, one can DH here and there, but it’s important to note, Bart simply has not carried the lion’s share of starts often in his career. Doesn’t mean he can’t take a jump like that in 2025, just means we should probably expect a guy like Delay isn’t just going to play on Sunday’s. And that leads me to believe the real battle for number two is between Henry and Endy.

Before this season ends, I fully expect 3 of these 4 to be on the MLB roster.

Outfield

The way the roster shapes up, it feels like they’re going to have 4 primary outfield players and 1 swing choice who plays a little infield as well.

Tommy Pham, Bryan Reynolds and of course Oneil Cruz will all make it.

Jack Suwinski, and Ji Hwan Bae are both on the 40 man, can both play all 3 outfield positions and are both hitting in Spring. They are both importantly left handed and unless they make a move, it feels to me like this 4th spot is going to go to one of them. Each provide something this team needs and don’t currently have rostered in nearly enough quantity, speed and power.

You get past those guys and you get to Joshua Palacios who is out of options. By now you understand, he makes the team or he is waived. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t retain him for AAA, it just means he’ll be open for the rest of the league, which honestly, if he can’t beat out Bae or Suwinski, who cares right?

The team could see Adam Frazier as a guy they could use to fill in out there too, although I’d advise against it.

Next you have the NRI guys. Players who the team brought in, might even be flirting with them filling in at 1B while Spencer Horwitz is out. That’s your DJ Stewart, Bryce Johnson and Nick Solak. All three have MLB experience, and for a bench role, you could see any of them being plucked out of camp knowing they could last as long as it takes Horwitz to get healthy.

I have to add in Emmanual Valdez here, he does have an option, and he can play the infield or outfield, although he isn’t great at either, he has MLB experience and he has a bit of hitting pedigree.

Then you get into the interesting youngsters, like Billy Cook, and Nick Yorke. It looks like the Pirates have used Yorke primarily in the infield and Billy has played just about everywhere.

I could see a world where both of these guys make the club, but it might come down to wanting to get them at bats.

Of course, they could still get another as they’ve alluded to.

Short Stop

I know this one is supposed to be settled with Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, but man, I just don’t want to believe it. The alternatives to start there are really Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo. Jared hasn’t hit and the team doesn’t really seem to like him there, while Nick has seen a lot of reps in the 6 hole. IKF likely starts out of camp, but over time, moving Gonzales over might make space for the promotion of Nick Yorke and could move IKF into the Jared Triolo utility role.

Much of the flexibility they have here stems from how healthy Ke’Bryan Hayes is. If he needs to sit 2-3 times a week, I’m not sure I can cut my best 3B not named Hayes, so Triolo might get the gig by default.

I’d like the team to be open to IKF losing this job, I just don’t think they are right now. So I expect this to be a topic in the first month of the season.

It’s very likely 1 or 2 MLB ready players won’t make this club until they make changes here.