Who’s Gonna Close?

3-6-25 – By Josh Poe – @DaRealHanYolo on X

As spring training rages on, I feel strange about this team. I am excited, yet not. One of the main things that excites me is the pitching rotation. This rotation looks to be the best of my lifetime. I was born in 1999, but since then, there have been good rotations you have seen this year, and it stands out. This rotation is easily among the top ten in baseball and could propel them into a spot for the playoffs. The bullpen is decent; it’s not great, but it is respectable, as it has some depth. But there is one lingering question:  who is the closer? Here are the options as I see them, along with my choice.

David Bednar

The first option for a closer is the most likely choice, and that choice is Devid Bednar. Going into the 2024 season, he was one of the best relievers in baseball. Last year, however, he took a significant step back and didn’t look like himself. In ten fewer innings than in 2023, he gave up more homers and almost 20 more runs than in ‘23. The big issue for me was the location of his pitches because his other skills are still there. His fastball was still good at around 97mph, but the ball hardly moved.

It seemed a lot of the time, the hitters Bednar faced just weren’t fooled enough by his pitches.. Now, the question is, can Bednar get back to form this year? I think he actually can. It boggles my mind that Bednar could have a year like he did in 2023 and then completely lose it. I’m not saying it doesn’t happen because it does, but it’s odd that he had years like ‘22 and ‘23 and had no idea how to locate his pitches in ‘24. So, no, I am not of the camp that says we should dump Bednar to the highest bidder.

Colin Holderman

I will keep this one short because I think it’s perfectly fine where Holderman is as a set-up man. He lit the world on fire in the first half of ‘24, then fell off. I think Holderman is a good pitcher, just not great as a closer.  He excels at his role but doesn’t perform well when used outside it. He reminds me a lot of Tony Watson, who, when used right, was dominant. But, like Watson, Holderman seems to lose a step if his role is expanded or if he is simply used as a closer. Still, he is a very good player, so he is on the shortlist to consider.  Check his numbers here. 

Closer By Committee

Closer by committee is another option that would make sense if Bednar does indeed not have the stuff this year. In my mind, it would include giving looks to Justin Lawrence, Colin Holderman, Dennis Santana, and Caleb Ferguson. ( Or any of the other bullpen arms). This option could work, but at first glance, this seems like a very flawed idea. Looking back on the dominant bullpens the Pirates have had, each pitcher had the roles of their arms defined, and thats why it worked. The theory was to get a lead to the 7th, and then the book was already written on how to close it. 

The 7,8,9 formula seemed like the formula they wanted last year with Holderman, Chapman, and Bednar. We saw how that went, not well at all. Because if pitchers are getting looks at being the closer simply because they are good pitchers, that is not the best way to manage. The possibility that anyone could be used in that position will cause some stress among the players, as not everyone is suited for the closer spot. I don’t think closer by committee is the way to go unless something terrible happens. Perhaps halfway through the season, if the Pirates lose their closer due to an injury, then maybe the best available pitcher steps in.  But the Pirates’ management needs to have a plan in place if Plan A doesn’t work, and that plan can’t be to simply go with who’s hot. 

Dennis Santana

Yep, we have made it to the last option on the list, and I want to see who the closer is. I know that Santana is not the answer to the closer dilemma for everyone, so just hear me out. Dennis Santana was DFA’d by the Yankees after throwing 27.1 innings and had a 6.26 era with the Yankees. Santana has never logged an era under 3.63 in any other year of his career, which probably leads you to ask why I’m picking him.

Once the Pirates picked up Dennis Santana, he had a significant turnaround and ended the year well. He threw 44.1, struck out 50 batters, had a career-best era of 2.44, and a whip under 1. By looking at his numbers, we can see that he has a good run on his fastball, high chase rate, and low exit velocity.  His stuff is there, and if I were managing the Buccos, I would use Santana as the main closer and then ease Bednar back into the closer position. Santana would then go back to a set-up role with Holderman. 

The Pirates bullpen has a chance to be good this season.  So, keep hope alive, everyone.

Trust is on Life Support and Young Players are the Only Treatment

3-4-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Trust is earned, and this franchise hasn’t earned any.

It doesn’t get any more simple than that.

Even when the team has a good outcome, it tends to be seen as luck. If a player improves in the offseason, they get credit, fans and media dig in to show all the stuff he did completely on his own to get to this point. The player always gives credit to the team for either supporting or suggesting whatever he worked on and the story that comes out either downplays that aspect or omits it all together.

I’m here to tell you the trust isn’t going to come from any source but kids growing up. They can fire Ben Cherington tomorrow and replace him with the reanimated corpse of Branch Rickey and it won’t be manifested. Replace the owner and as soon as the excitement of “what if” subsides you’ll be left with the same lack of trust blanketed in an extra 20 mil or so every year.

The only thing that truly fixes trust in a franchise’s fan base is consistency, and sustained success.

No matter how you slice it, an outcome like that when you’re rooting for a consistent loser is almost always 5 years away.

Think about it, how much trust did you have for this club in 2016? If you’re honest, the answer is more than you had in 2012, but not enough to trust the moves the team made would help them.

And you were right.

Fans love to toss the trust word out like it’s an insult, but it’s almost always used incorrectly. For instance, say you think Henry Davis looks different this Spring and you like his chances to show up and perform this year. You post it on your favorite, or least hated, social media site and right away you get called an idiot for “trusting” Henry or the Pirates.

Well, you never said you trusted him or the team, you just said you see this kid taking a step. Right?

Trust is elusive, and frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of franchises who have it. The Yankees have a nice roster, it’s not perfect, but it’s pretty damn good. Their fans don’t trust that they are trying because they failed to retain Juan Soto, they are planning to start youngsters in their open outfield spot, third base and in the bullpen.

They also just lost in the World Series to THE team spending more than anyone in baseball last year.

They trust them to be the Yankees, and have a competitive team, but they don’t “trust” them to do everything they need to do to win it all.

The Penguins won an early Cup with Sydney Crosby then struggled to get back. Fans called for blowing it up. Trading Malkin and Letang, doing drastic things to fix this entirely broken team. Trust in management was completely eroded in only 5 short years.

Mid-season they fired coach Mike Johnston and replaced him with Mike Sullivan and they won 2 cups.

Everything they touched for a minute there was brilliant, and the franchise was trusted to do anything crazy you could think of including trading away every first round pick for almost a decade.

Here we are 10 years later, and guess what fans think.

In general, trust is a rare commodity in baseball. The Pirates have Bryan Reynolds, and Paul Skenes. I’d have to believe 99% of everyone trusts these two players to perform, at least to the level they have recently.

It takes time to develop that kind of trust and if you manage to do it in baseball, you’re either extremely consistent over a period of time or so spectacular you have simply not shown fans the possibility of the opposite is going to happen.

So when I look at the starting rotation and say I feel good about it, it means absolutely nothing to me that you don’t “trust” it. I mean, neither do they or they wouldn’t be so hell bent on making sure they have 10-12 options.

Baseball is about probability, and room for improvement.

My point is, stop whining that you don’t trust them to do this or that. You never will until or if they win. You won’t trust new management, you won’t trust a new owner, you won’t trust someone who signed here because you can’t see them doing so while having a choice to go elsewhere, you won’t trust a draft pick, even as you watch them continue to get here, impact the team and perform.

Until, or if, they win.

Period.

Look at the individual players and evaluate them. Take the emotion of trust and push it aside, because the next time you trust them would be during a parade that you don’t trust will ever come.

Let’s talk baseball. That can be pure. Quit waiting on a feeling that barely comes for teams that have earned it, especially quit using it to make others feel dumb for the slightest positive thought.

I trust that frustration breeds lazy discourse. I don’t need any more wins to know that one is real.

If you have to trust you are watching a World Series winner, you’ll never catch that dragon in this market. It’s impossible to discuss almost any aspect of this team intelligently because as soon as you make a point that requires anything developing, emerging, shaping up, it’s instantly squashed by not trusting it’ll work out.

I get it, but my god, can’t it just be nice to talk about a guy who suddenly throws 97 but barely touched 94 last year?

The only way out of this is for kids to start coming up here, entrenching themselves as MLB players and earning it together as a team.

It ain’t coming from words from management. They aren’t signing someone that changes everything. They aren’t trading for someone who fills the fanbase with trust either. Trust is earned, and trust takes time.

Time a team like this rarely has to offer. Players here have until they start costing money to impress on the team they’re worth it.

You know, cause management doesn’t trust them either.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Still Feeling Woozy?

3-3-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

There is very little that’s more fun for a truly sick in the head baseball fan like me than Spring Training. Where else can you start a day complaining about who was in the lineup and finish it by getting way too excited about homeruns by players who probably won’t be here for a year or two, if ever?

I love it. None of it “matters”, but look at the faces of some of these kids like Konnor Griffin who just was sent to MiLB camp after yesterday’s contest. That kid wasn’t here thinking his hits didn’t matter.

Hell, look at Oneil Cruz joining Konnor in diving for baseballs in center field!

Yeah, I just love it.

Lets Go!

1. So…A “Big” Move is Still Coming?

Lets look at this a couple ways.

First, I’m not disputing the report that the Pirates intend to make a move before Spring ends to address the outfield spot they have open. I’ve heard the same for one thing, but they’ve since repeated it to more than just one (Dejan Kovacevic) reporter, and even more recently.

So it’s out there, they wanted it out there. I can take that as nothing other than these people are more than happy for us to see they want something, and hear they agree and plan fully to get something done.

OK. That’s step one.

Now, I have to be honest, I think Luis Robert Jr. is probably the highest profile outfielder that we know is available. Take all your pot shots out of the equation. He’s injured too much, he’ll cost too much, whatever popped into your head when you saw his name. He’s just a mile marker.

Now assume he’s the best version of himself. On paper that’s a 5 WAR player, and he’s done it 1 out of 5 MLB seasons. Bluntly, the talent is insane, the availability is too for a different reason.

He’d help, but how much? I mean, aside from that one season, he looks a lot more like Tommy Pham on the stat sheet than some super star worth 2 top 100 players in a deal.

I don’t want to spend too much time on one player, I just want to say, THIS is the top guy we all know is out there….

…and I have to be honest, I’ll pass.

I’m just not sure there’s enough benefit there, at least enough that I feel strongly will help.

Don’t get me wrong, if this club spends money or prospects in an effort to improve the club, I get it, and I’d appreciate the effort, I just don’t think I would with what I’m seeing out there.

Bluntly, the threshold they have to surpass to have this make sense for me is whomever they acquire has to be for sure a better bet than Jack Suwinski. If they cost 10X more than Jack and I can’t 100% say I’m going to get better from the new guy, yeah, I’m out.

There’s a big part of me that thinks this team needs another year of seeing what some of these kids turn into before panic filling a spot that might fill itself.

I know, Skenes….shut up Gary. Well, I’m sorry, this is my thoughts, not the thoughts everyone wants to hear. And while I know you can’t just pretend they avoid injury and get 6 straight years of Skenes to work with, you hope for it, but can’t pretend it’s assured. But they’ve built up a stable of horses to insulate that a bit. Might be ok to see if some seedlings turn into cash crops before doing something rash.

Like say you come out of 2025 feeling fairly sure you now have Davis, Endy and Jack to add to the lineup as locks, or hey, bare minimum, you feel about them like you do Gonzales, you definitely want to see more. Hey, what if Horwitz hits? I don’t trust them either, and I’m asking for a lot of luck here. Even so, some of those guys aren’t exactly bad bets.

Just sayin’.

2. Candid Conversation

I have to hand it to Pittsburgh SportsNet’s own Hannah Mears. Her in game interviews with players have been truly informative. She’s asking them really good questions about process or mindset, injury recovery, maintaining health, hell she’s even broached money with dudes.

The players are giving her great answers too, and it’s not just cause she’s a nice person, she’s framing these questions in such a clever way, with enough actual knowledge of what an honest answer might be from whomever the interview subject is that she’s forcing them to be more candid. Politely. Not by yelling for honesty or calling anyone out, just by actually possessing a level of curiosity, and teeing them up to avoid the trappings of normal cliche sports figure answers.

I’m impressed to say the least, and we fans are all the better for it.

I really appreciate it. Hearing a guy like Henry open up a bit more, speak directly to his issues, and candidly dish about the way he’s approached this offseason, listen, all I’m saying is I don’t expect this from a “sideline reporter”.

I’m just damn grateful we’re getting it.

MORE please! Maybe not in-game? Maybe have her do a half hour sit down in season with a different player each week? And preferably not while shoveling steak on a stone in his gullet?

The network has been far from perfect, but when I think they do good, I just want to make note of that too.

3. The Indianapolis Indians…

My goodness, if you like minor league baseball, it’s shaping up to be a very good year for the Indianapolis Indians. I’m not trying to placate all you disappointed Pirates fans with this post. In no way am I pretending it’s more important than the big club, but this has a chance to be a historically good AAA starting rotation.

They could very well have Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, Carmen Mlodzinski, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Sean Sullivan and Po-Yu Chen as possibilities, at least at different times as guys are called up/sent back.

And all this is backed by Anthony Solometo, and Hunter Barco in AA.

This team should probably be in the top of the league and they’re going to get trickle down bats too. The Pirates may not have done much this offseason, but they sure do have a lot of borderline MLB, soon to be MLB, Quad A type players who should make for a fairly solid offensive attack.

You figure there’s a good shot Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, Matt Gorski, Henry Davis or Endy Rodriguez, maybe both, Valdez or Triolo, maybe even Peguero. Jack or Palacios, maybe both. Bae is actually a good AAA player.

Yeah, I’m gonna go ahead and re-up my MiLB App subscription.

That’s a fair ballpark too, plays like a big league park. Gonna be a blast to watch and if you want winning culture, well, it wouldn’t hurt to have an infusion of guys who just won start making the Bigs.

4. Looking Woozy So Far

It’s early to start crowing about anyone being good or bad, but there are some guys who really needed to show something early on here in their opportunities and so far, not so much.

Jared Triolo really doesn’t look in sync. In fact, he looks like he did the vast majority of last year before catching on toward the end of the season. He looks fine defensively, just like he always does, unfortunately for Jared, I think he has real competition for his roster spot. He has a leg up because of how good he is at 3B and Hayes always needing rest, but the stick can’t be nothing or a guy like Yorke is going to take his job. So far he looks like he’s swinging a pool cue.

Liover Peguero always talks a great game. You hear him interviewed and you think to yourself, man this team could use a dude like this for the energy boost, but he’s quite frankly had a disastrous start to the Spring. Making errors at THE position that would be his main reason for making the team, SS. Doing very little with the bat, and I don’t mean the results as much as the general lack of impact from his contact early on. I don’t know, I’ve been impressed with Peggy at times, just not this Spring.

There are others, but none that I feel are losing a spot. They either never were going to have one, or were going to have one regardless of how they looked this Spring. These two guys in particular, in my mind they needed to show some things in particular and they’ve both largely done no such thing.

5. The Funny Thing is…

The Pirates will spend all Spring running all over the bases. Guys like Reynolds will take off here and there. Guys who you just know can’t run anymore will take off. The team will use the younger players they sub in and keep it going into the later innings.

To the untrained eye it might look like they’re building an identity of being aggressive on the basepaths. Led by all these youngsters, hungry for a roster spot with fresh legs and reckless abandon.

And then…

The Pirates will open the season with just about none of those young energetic kids. They’ll lead off most games with IKF or Cutch, and they’ll start nursing some of these guys like Hayes, Reynolds and Cruz into pawns on the chessboard instead of the knights they advertised all Spring long. Stationary advances with the occasional aggressive taking of the extra base.

It’s funny, because once it’s gone, it stays gone. Even as you work these kids back in throughout the season, 1 at a time does not a team identity change. It really makes you wonder why they spend so much time taking about their intension to run, and showing your their intension to run all Spring only to turn around and abandon it when the season starts.

It’s like when the Steelers come out and throw the ball 65 times in a preseason game. Why are we practicing something you’ll quite literally never allow in the regular season?

I’d love to be wrong here, but first, I don’t see a speedy team coming out of camp. Just don’t. They aren’t all lead foots, but they don’t have any Vince Coleman’s either. Their most dangerous runner you really hope spends a lot more time trotting, ya know?

It’s just not going to happen, and if it’s so important that for 5 years running you’ve emphasized it in the offseason, showed it in Spring, why not actually sign someone who can help you execute it at least a little in the regular season? They don’t grow on trees, I get it, but you can’t get 1?

Did you put every chip you have on Ji Hwan Bae?

Listen, all I’m saying is, it’s either important, or it isn’t. And I’d just as soon play the game the way we intend to play the game, based on the capabilities they bring north.

Steel City Pirates – March 1st Q&A

3-1-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s been quite a while since I’ve done one of these. It hasn’t stopped questions from coming in, but with actual games being played again, and real player news cropping up daily, it’s time to get back on the horse and see what yinz are pondering.

Sincerely, some really thoughtful questions this time. I say it almost every time I write one of these, but the depth of some of these shows that no matter how disappointed this team has made many of their fans, those of you who still have questions are deeply thinking about things. And I love it.

Let’s Go!

Question 1

I can see Endy needing some time in Indy to get consistent ABs and feel completely comfortable with his arm recovery. Is there any real value in Henry being in Indy? Seems he really need ML ABs to sink or swim. – Ed Fleming

What’s the ideal placement for Henry Davis and Endy Rodriquez, MLB vs. AAA action, to start the season? I go back and forth about what would be more beneficial for the former especially. – Nick Cammuso

Yeah Ed, I was just thinking about Endy the other day, and honestly, as much as they featured him in their social media stuff after pitchers and catchers reported, I thought sure they were going to really see a lot of him.

Not so much though, although, it’s super early. I think the thing that most fans have discounted with Endy is that he tore the cover off the ball in 2022, then didn’t in 2023 even though he earned a promotion, it was later in the season than the team intended, largely based on the fact that Henry Davis hit his way right past him.

Defensively he was good, but anyone who says he hit his way on the team in 2023 or whatever is rewriting history.

And before I go too far here, I love the kid and think he’ll make it back and produce. I’m only saying, this isn’t some proven out commodity working his way back, it’s a kid who still needs to prove himself and there’s a more crowded field of players to do it in now than there was in 2023.

I think it would be wise to start him in AAA and let him get back to hitting the baseball.

Now, onto Henry. I don’t know if I want to take it quite that far yet. Like, do I think he’s polished? No, I don’t. Do I think he could get more polished in AAA? Well, he did just change his swing. He looks comfortable with it, but we’ll have to see how Spring plays out.

On the AB front, I think the role of backup catcher on this club could and probably should be more of a 4-3 or 5-2 split of playing time. Joey Bart has never handled a full season of work himself, and assuming his bat remains something you feel you must keep in the lineup I still think you’ll be looking at 4 starts being a fairly typical number in a week for Bart.

If Henry and Endy are both catchers only, as the team has indicated is the working assumption right now, to me you can’t have both of them on the same team and expect the at bats to balance. Not yet anyway, and not without position flexibility.

I also happen to believe Henry is the best defensive catcher of the 3, so there’s that. Again, right now, if Endy does the work he can easily take that mantle back in time.

Question 2

Based on some BC comments, it seems Pham and Frazier’s strength is putting winning as top priority. Pham sounds to hold others accountable. Is this suggesting that winning wasn’t the main goal before? And how much can a couple veterans change the culture in the clubhouse? – Matt Harrison

I’ll add to this thought process before I answer. Bryan Reynolds made quite the deal about his intention to be more outspoken in the room this year. Wants to be the guy who says something when it needs said.

Now, I add that in because while Bryan is an observant guy, he’s not a guy who is necessarily looking to come out of his shell. The Bryan you see in interviews is by all accounts (some much closer than others) the Bryan everyone sees almost all the time.

He’s a lead by action type, so for him to mention this, well, he might as well have told you what the coaches and likely GM have impressed on him they’d like to see from him, you know, what with owning the team’s riches contract extension and all.

I think what it’s suggesting is they don’t feel they developed any of those types internally and the ones who might be are too young to be heard by everyone in the room.

Say what you want about Pham, lord knows I think they could and should have done better here, but he is never afraid to air it out. If he doesn’t think you’re hustling, you’re going to know about it, and so is the local media, and the coaches, and anyone sitting near the dugout, and… well, you get the point.

That’s going to rub some guys wrong, but as long as it stirs up some emotion, the theory is it does the trick to shake up the room and escape the seemingly week long funks they go into.

I have never heard anyone suggest Adam Frazier was one of those guys. Doesn’t mean he isn’t, just means I didn’t hear it, and I had just started writing really, why would I?

So, let’s suppose that he too is a say something type guy. There’s that. One thing he is though, a guy who really wanted to come back and started trying as soon as his contract expired in San Diego.

That’s probably something chalked up to desperation or lack of offers to most, and honestly, to me too, but it’s verifiable that he did indeed try to come back before this year. Maybe the thinking there, and I’m totally making this up as a thought exercise more than anything, here’s a guy who was here when we started this whole thing, and he wants to come back. He can explain to the youngsters here now the difference in where the team was back when he was one of the kids vs now. Walking, talking proof they’ve progressed as a team. Ya know?

I think what they learned last year was having the coaches and executives and players all repeat the “we’re ready to win” mantra all offseason last year wasn’t enough and it certainly wasn’t enough at the locker room level.

The coach isn’t a table tosser, so they signed a cheap one who can play Left Field.

Question 3

Now that we’ve added another lefty, what do you think our starting five will look like? – Wilbert Matthews

Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney are the 5 we’re talking about here, and early on the order might have more to do with planning out who gets the opening day start against the Yankees.

Like, they have 7 games before the Home Opener. So say you go with what I put up there, Keller gets the Opener and Jones gets the Home Opener. Maybe that’s ok, but I bet you want to get Skenes in one of those, so you could see them go something like Keller, Heaney, Skenes, Falter, Jones potentially. that would have Keller go on opening day and Skenes get the home opener plus it splits the lefties up which could help keep lineups off balance.

That’s about the only intrigue if you ask me, this starting 5 barring injury in my mind is set.

Question 4

Would be interested to learn how SPs manage their offseason. The only innings pitched that “count” are regular season although I assume there are different philosophies to either stop or slow down after a season and then ramp back up again to have optimal endurance. – Ryan Macaluso

We’ve had Eric Minshall from the the Ohio Baseball Science Academy on our show several times. So, I can at least tell you I’ve asked the same questions, and I’ve asked experts.

The truth is, every guy is different and so is every organization. If anything, I can maybe use ranges to answer this one.

Most guys shut down throwing for anywhere from 2 weeks to a month.

Most guys have a plan. Adding a pitch means you have to add full exertion throwing into the mix a bit earlier. Trying to add velocity, you’re throwing a ton building mechanics and crafting a delivery over time and repetition.

I can tell you this team is very involved. That doesn’t mean they can’t go off and work independently, but when they do, it’s almost always with the team at the very least being kept in the loop.

For instance, Carmen Mlodzinski didn’t show up in February and find out he was going to be stretching into a starter, that was communicated and planned for in the offseason, so his plan was probably far different than it was last offseason for Carmen.

Again, this franchise does a lot wrong, but they have Dewey Robinson, Brent Strom and Oscar Marin a phone call away, you aren’t going to stray too far when you have that at home.

Question 5

I have been listening and looking for evidence of our new hitting coach’s efforts. Have you noted anything? Players worked on their own a lot which seems good. – Douglas Smith

There have been some noticeable swing changes, and some guys who look like they have a bit different of an approach, but not much.

I haven’t even seen him formally interviewed this Spring yet. Not for anything in depth anyway.

Part of me is actually happy. Maybe he’s one of the few hitting coaches who don’t think they’ve invented “the way”. Maybe we’re not hearing a lot of it because he’s not doing a lot more than letting guys have more space to be themselves. You know, like maybe he’s trying to just let them deprogram a bit so he’s not building on rotten joists.

I don’t think his MO is to stand there and adjust your elbow, and shout mantras. I think he’s more of a go play baseball, I’ll watch the video and if we need to talk we’ll talk type.

The only sign I can see that Haines is gone is nobody is going out of their way to praise someone actively not doing a good job from the dugout. Well, maybe that and Jack swinging at a first pitch strike.

Question 6

Gary – why must we suffer with the ineptitude of this owner and his minions? That really is the 64 thousand dollar question. All else is window dressing, hyperbole, and subterfuge. – Golf Patriot

It’s funny how 64 thousand dollars doesn’t sound like very much, certainly not a grand prize.

I mean, first, you don’t have to suffer with anything like that, you choose to. And you know why you choose to? Because you like baseball.

I’ve said this a billion times, but a new owner at best gets you a team that spends every cent they can and you’re Milwaukee. The owners sucks, the league itself sucks, but I love the game of baseball.

I love the game, I love the building aspect, I love the levels, the roster decisions, the positional challenges, the quirks of certain players, and damnit, I love my Pirates.

I don’t ignore all the BS, I just don’t focus on it. Largely because I think you could go without a GM for the next 3-5 years and win a lot of games. But also because until this league changes, the team in this market is only has so much room a new owner could bring.

If it brings you misery, don’t watch. I get it. Just don’t ask me to join you or see it the same way, I never will.

Question 7

Do you think Gorski and Suwinski can supply this team some much needed power this season and what percentage chance do you give them to make the opening day roster? – James Littleton

I mean, I’m open to it, and I’d have to imagine so are they.

Suwinski has an excellent chance, and he’s had the kind of early Spring he has to have, but he needs to run through the tape. If the team does in fact make another addition as has been reported, I’d imagine this changes, but Suwinski has to be the leader in the club house for the 4th outfielder and I’m sure they hope he takes over 3rd. They’ve also handed him a first base mitt so I’d imagine they think he has a role here.

Gorski has a hill to climb. Not on the 40 man, and next year he’ll be a MiLB free agent, so much like Bligh Madris, I could totally see Gorski staying hot in the minors and getting a use it or lose it call this year.

You know I have a soft spot for Gorski too.

Question 8

When should fan expect to see the 1st round of cuts to the major league camp roster? – Voice from the Graves

I’d expect to start seeing some as early as tomorrow. There’s no reason to risk anything on some guys like Griffin for instance, Johnson, maybe even Harrington or Ashcraft. Sunday afternoon feels like where some of that should start.

Nothing that should surprise anyone I’d wager though.

Question 9

Gary, after 3 relatively productive power seasons in the minors do you think Gorski deserves a “shot” at First while Horwitz heals. It almost seems Shelton has him on the black list and would prefer a Frazier or Triolo there as a fill in. – Mike Petrosky

Gorski is kinda like a pack of crackers you keep in the pantry for eons. If you ever open them, you have to be pretty desperate, and when you do, you might just find out they were stale and then they’re just garbage you held on to for no reason and you have a bad taste in your mouth.

In many ways, Matt Gorski makes a ton of sense, like I told James earlier in the Q&A, it’s a use him or lose him year. If you’re going to try, well, try. That said, you might want to see if this carries into his regular season. He’s done this before, like a lot. Horwitz isn’t going to miss a whole lot of regular season time I’d bet, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a hole for Gorski. Like James noted, they sure do need the power.

Question 10

Kyle Nicolas has 4 walks in 3 ip. Control was a big issue for him last yr. I like him long term but would it be smart to sign a vet RP and let him start in Indy? – Adam Yarkovsky

I don’t think they necessarily need to sign another vet reliever to make this happen, I also don’t think it’s an issue that’s going to go away in another level. In some ways he’s an effectively wild pitcher and that either improves or you turn into Yohan Ramirez. He isn’t a guy who is going to get hit often, and you’re right about the control issues, I’m just not sure it outweighs what he does do.

When he’s at his worst he can obviously not be counted on, so if anything, until proven otherwise, you have to have a really short leash with him.

I have no issue with him starting in AAA though, if they think they have 8 more ready, cool by me. Even if 4 of them wind up being lefties.

Question 9

Even though spring numbers you gotta take with a grain of salt. Do you see anything promising with the small sample size? – Neal Kokiko

I mean, you said it, barely any numbers period.

I’m impressed by Jack Suwinski, he looks better, more relaxed, less predictable in what he’ll take or take a hack at. Henry Davis looks like he’s made some very productive changes this year. Love what I’ve seen from Henry so far, both at the plate and behind it.

Question 10

Will the change in hitting instruction translate into fewer called third strikes and a more aggressive approach at the plate? – John Hoover

I mean, it’s early to suggest you can see any kind of trend really, but individually with guys who’ve really struggled with that aspect of things, I think the early signs are good. Like I mentioned in 9 today, Jack and Henry look much different, relaxed even and Jack just keeps producing no matter which side of the mound you throw from.

This is impossible to answer. Even if they’re a lot better, how much is because they’re all a year older vs rid of Haines? Ya know? I I’m no fan of Haines, I’m just saying we need to start hearing those stories of players crediting him and stats to pile up and prove out the truth.

Question 11

Is there a chance that we see Nick G. at short more than one might expect? – Timstrader

I think he could well serve as the backup there. The thing is they just don’t have a lot of natural solutions. I’d love to think Liover Peguero would figure things out, but he makes a ton of errors for a guy who isn’t carrying or at least showing thunder in the stick.

At some point this team needs to invent a way to carry both Nick Yorke and Nick Gonzales on the same team. I think they’re both MLB bats, and they can’t afford to leave many of those in the minors for something as silly as position preference. IKF is going to start there, I have little doubt, but if he hits the way he always has prior to early last year, yeah, I think we could wind up seeing a lot more Nick Gonzales.

Triolo is also a potential option, but as slick as he is in the field, that’s the one place they haven’t seemed all that interested in using him.

Question 12

Help me make sense of Frazier. Is it only to avoid sitting a young player? When Horwitz returns, there’s even more of a logjam. York, Cook, Jack, all the NRI’s, let alone, Davis and Endy.

Another. What do you see happening with LHP in the rotation? Will they continue with 1 year deals? People like to pencil in Bubba and Oviedo, but I can’t see that. Need LHP plus change from all power pitching. They’re ok for now, but decisions are coming. – Michael Hall

Well, I’m really happy you asked two, because I can’t help you with the Adam Frazier signing, it doesn’t make sense to me, even in that context.

Falter is under team control through 2028 via arbitration, so it’s fair to say until he gets pushed out of the rotation, he’s a LHP they have under team control for years to come yet.

After this year, I’d be shocked to see them need or want to sign any starter. Now you toss in a TJ or two and we’ll talk, but this team should have plenty of SP for the next few years.

I’m not a big believer in Anthony Solometo, but we’ll see. Hunter Barco is the next big internally developed lefty on the way and he’s a late 2026 or 2027 guy.

Long story short, if Falter, um… falters, yeah, they’ll probably sign a one year stop gap type.

I’d add, they’ve done really well with these little signings.

Oh, Henry!

2-28-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

As the rebuild has progressed for the Pirates, there have been less and less real “battles” in Spring Training. Sure, a utility role or a 4th outfielder consistently has competition but the team, despite however you may feel about it, have started nailing down specific players at specific points.

One of the more intriguing competitions down in Bradenton lies behind the plate. Joey Bart had a breakout season in 2024 after coming over from the San Francisco Giants and has the inside track for the starting job but behind him?

Endy Rodriguez is coming back from Tommy John Surgery and the team appears to be slow-walking him back into games. Jason Delay, a serviceable backup catcher defensively but hasn’t really shown much with the bat at any level in professional ball. And finally, trying to finally break out in the same way Bart did last season, former 2021 first overall pick, Henry Davis.

I wrote in Spring Training last year about how Davis had been working with a number of the Pirates top prospects over the winter, taking on a leadership role by force as he thrust himself forward to become the best version of himself possible.

While he had an exciting Spring in 2024, batting .310 with a 1.067 OPS through his 16 games played, that didn’t exactly translate into the regular season as he batted a paltry .144 with a .454 OPS in his 37 games played.

This falls WELL short of expectations associated when you take a guy first overall in a draft class.

Let’s turn things back: The Pirates don’t exactly have the best track record when they’ve selected 1:1. Sure, Paul Skenes wrapped up one of the best rookie pitching seasons in MLB history and Gerrit Cole – while not really excelling until after leaving Pittsburgh – has certainly proven his stock over his professional career.

But prior to Cole? Bryan Bullington, picked first overall in 2002, and his career 5.62 ERA over just 81.2 MLB innings – most of which came after he left Pittsburgh. Kris Benson was selected 1:1 in 1996 and ended up with a serviceable career as he pitched parts of 9 seasons in MLB but a 4.26 ERA through 1,243 innings with the Bucs were not what you hope for from a first overall selection.

And finally, going back to 1986, having the bad luck to have the 1-1 a year before Ken Griffey Jr. signed to Seattle, the Pirates took Jeff King with the top pick who, wasn’t terrible overall – even posting a 30+ home run campaign for Pittsburgh in 1996 – but was mostly middling over his nearly 10-year MLB career as he posted a 99 OPS+ through his 8 years in black and gold.

So the bar seems fairly low for the 2021 first overall pick but, so far, he has fallen EXTREMELY short.

This is a graph of every first overall pick in MLB history by bWAR. You’ll see some recognizable names at the top in Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and the aforementioned Griffey  – and Skenes is already ranked 34 out of 60 picks in just one season – but at the tail end, just behind the twice-picked, all-time bust Danny Goodwin, sits the one and only Henry Davis at -2.0.

So can Davis turn tides and become something other than the statistically WORST 1:1 of all time?

Maybe?

When he had his ascendent spring, many were cautious with taking numbers at face-value given the unpredictable winds at LECOM Park as well as opposing pitchers mostly ramping up and not necessarily trying to beat-down hitters.

You have to take these stats with a grain of salt. Sometimes, you’re facing ace-level pitchers ramping up for the season and sometimes, you’re facing some NRI guy who isn’t going to be pitching professionally within a few months.

That said, the intangibles do look better this spring. He reportedly spent this past offseason training by himself to try and reset from what he has been doing wrong. And, so far, he doesn’t appear to be pressing as much. He looks more comfortable overall.

Last year, he was coming off a season where he was a positional nomad trying to break in at the major league level which resulted in a seismic shift in weight where he reportedly lost 15 pounds rapidly to play outfield only to put weight back on over the winter to bulk up for catcher.

From earlier this week: a look at Henry Davis’ new swing

— Alex Stumpf (@alexjstumpf.bsky.social) 2025-02-21T20:28:47.572Z

He’s also appeared to be changing up some mechanics in his swing to try getting better at timing up fastballs, against which he batted .123 in 2023 with a whiff rate of 33.8%. We’ve seen results of this early on in camp as he is hitting the ball to right field, something he rarely did in 2023 as he mostly tried to pull the ball.

https://twitter.com/northsidenotch/status/1894847114074824784?s=46&t=uS-wvKiQUPugLtQFzfMtqQ

Behind the dish, his defense is developing as well. He gunned down a would-be base-stealer in his first game catching this spring. He likely won’t be an elite receiver but his pop time and arm strength are both among the best in MLB.

He’s a work-in-progress and admittedly put too much pressure on himself to be doing too much too soon. But if he can get close to the pedigree that he showed to get picked 1:1, something close to the career .944 OPS he’s posted in the minors, he might just get his name a bit higher on that chart sooner than later.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Actual Baseball to Talk About…

2-24-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Early Spring baseball is awesome. First, it’s been so long everything looks great. Second, it takes hypothetical conversation and starts putting things into real world observation. For everyone really.

Things guys have been working on, finally get tested. Guys who had expectation for reaching a certain level get to look around the room and do the math.

Things change, and all season long, so will this team.

Lets Go!

1. They Better Not Think He’s Good Enough!!!

The silliest thing that happens in Spring Training, or even into the season for that matter is this sentiment that certain players have no “right” to make the team. Or, giving at bats to someone you’ve deemed not to be a potential star is a waste of time.

Recently, I saw this crop up with Matt Gorski. And what was really funny, the batshit went in both directions with him.

See, Matt is 27 years old. He’s struck out too much in the minors to ever really get a good look and bluntly, he’s done nothing to indicate that aspect of his game is about to take a major jump.

In the Pirates Spring opener against Baltimore he hit two homeruns, one a grand slam, and it was good for 6 RBI. Neither were wind aided blasts, or, it’s probably more safe to say they’d have been homeruns in any ballpark a professional plays in.

He’s got massive power, and really, always has.

Immediately I saw proclamations that he should absolutely make the team, followed quickly by declarations that the team better not be so stupid as to bring him north.

I already described some reasons Gorski is the type of player who gets this treatment. He’s 27, and in baseball, having not debuted yet, he might as well be 37. He strikes out a lot, and always has, this history is well documented and contributes to the belief that “we’ve seen all we need to see” or “if he hasn’t gotten it by now…”.

This is accurate, and 99% of the time, it’s going to be entirely correct.

Here’s the thing though, it does happen. Guys do finally have things come together late. Sometimes the needs of the big club line up perfectly with a player and they finally get that shot.

The real problem here is for the most part, when fans make up their mind about a guy, it’s over. There’s nothing that can be done to sway them, short of being called up and proving them wrong, and even then, it’ll be seen as a shaky player to hang your hat on beyond that year. It could be a 1 year aberration after all. You wouldn’t want to be w—w—-wr—-wr-oong.

At this stage, Gorski is no different than an NRI. Except he’s familiar to us. All of the frustrations you have with his development, other teams have had with some of the NRIs the Pirates currently have in camp. AND, he’s got just as much a chance to make it as they do.

The beauty and downside of Spring is watching guys try to achieve their dream. For some, they’re here too early and their expected timeline isn’t threatened. For others, they’re here too late and fans have long since moved on.

Bottom line, when you get answers, if you get answers, you won’t care where they came from, so you might as well be open to any and all comers.

Just last year everyone and their mother decided exactly what Bailey Falter was/is, and as I just illustrated, we enter this year wondering if he was an aberration. It’s just too early to admit we were wrong ya know?

2. New Swings & Pitches – It’s That Time of Year

I hesitate to get too excited about new pitches or swing changes for guys this time of year. For instance, Mitch Keller worked on and wants to use more often in 2025 a changeup.

He’s had one, but he rarely has used it, but it’s clear he could use something like that to help keep people off his heater and disrupt timing as most of his offerings live within 5 MPH of each other. So it was good to see him implement them, and good to see him use them in tough situations during the game too.

Thing is though, it’s one thing to try something like that in Spring. It doesn’t matter if a guy steals a base because you’re throwing changeups. It doesn’t matter if a guy hits one you hang while you try to dial it in. It’s just a pitch you’re working on after all right? Well, 5 weeks from now, it won’t be cute anymore. It won’t be a shrug if you threw one in a big spot and it got hammered. And if you can’t bring yourself to throw it in a big spot, chances are you just won’t throw it.

Swing changes aren’t much different. Henry Davis has changed his swing, reducing his follow through a lot like Joey Bart does. Ke’Bryan Hayes has changed to a 2 handed finish. Now, much like the pitcher adding a pitch, these guys have been working on it all offseason, and all the things that these changes were made to target, well, now they get to start seeing if they actually achieve results.

More than that, they get to see if it’s something they’re going to stick with, push through, believe in, when they face real pitchers who really want to get them out.

The point is, seeing this stuff in Spring is cool, but it won’t count as a change or addition really until we see it in the regular season. This is the time for trial and error, the regular season is the time for guys who get paid to be their best do what they really believe in the most.

It matters, it just isn’t set in stone.

3. Early Reactions to Young Performers

In no way am I telling you to not get excited about youngsters doing things. Be excited Konnor Griffin singled in his first Spring AB. Be thrilled Termarr Johnson sharply singled to keep the inning going late in the contest yesterday.

Hell, be excited Gorski hit those two homers the other day.

But do keep in mind, early in Spring, the latter half of these games will be largely prospect on prospect warfare.

Not always, I mean when the Pirates are “on the road” this Spring, you’ll see some of these youngsters get to face actual planned 26-man members from the competition, but late in that game, you’re talking travel squad players, probably already in MiLB camp facing other prospects who are themselves a year or two away from threatening a roster.

Grain of salt with every stat you see.

And keep in mind, stats are not what the coaches, or GM are looking for. They’re looking for things you aren’t even thinking about.

Does that pitcher challenge left handers inside? How does he handle getting out of this jam? Does he get frustrated when things start going poorly or does he grow in resolve? They could get positive answers for all these questions while the guy gives up 4 runs. No lie.

At the end of the day, if I come out of a Spring game with 3 or 4 statements pointing to things I think mattered, it was a good day.

Saturday for instance, I got that Mike Burrows attacks left handed hitting with inside fastballs. Just fearlessly. I saw that Henry Davis looked very capable behind the dish and his new swing hasn’t sapped his power. Finally I saw that Matt Gorski is at the very least a Quad A player.

Not much, but without stretching for takeaways, this is all I really have to take from that game.

4. Don’t Panic Too Much About Who Makes it and Who Doesn’t

This is a different year for the Pirates.

The Pirates roster is largely fleshed out. They have room for a surprise here or there, but only 1 or 2.

Essentially, guys who look like they could legitimately be better players than what comes North are going to be sent to the minors.

I’m saying this now because the team’s situation isn’t what it once was. They still need these kids to break through and ultimately grab hold of a spot on the roster, but they don’t need to force it at all.

Bubba Chandler is probably good enough to start out of camp. But the team if it stays healthy, isn’t in need of a rotation member. Much like Skenes last year, Chandler could easily prove it’s real and earn a call early in the year. Liover Peguero might not have a spot because the Pirates signed Adam Frazier.

They have a young roster, with a lot of kids right there, ready to step up and step in and we’ll watch it happen all season long.

162 games is a long time, and we’ll see these guys impact the team as it plays out. It’s not the end of the world when they don’t make the team out of camp, but it could be a big deal they have so many qualified guys who they have to call on when they feel a need or want to see a change.

This doesn’t mean you need to be excited that Braxton Ashcraft, or Mike Burrows or whomever is starting in AAA, but it’s not a death sentence, it’s an opportunity to play, keep getting better and hopefully be more ready when they do get the call.

For all the bluster of this offseason, the roster is better, deeper and will undergo a season long metamorphosis that moves it even younger.

But now it’s about who can help right now, not who might help the most for years to come. It isn’t 2021 anymore, and thank God they seem to understand that too.

In other words, if the 5 guys they start out with in the rotation perform and for whatever reason they don’t feel the need to call up any rookie reinforcements, well, doesn’t that mean these 5 guys did good and stayed healthy?

I’ll tell you what, it means that a hell of a lot more than it means they’re screwing Bubba over.

Let it play out without expectation of who is or isn’t here, I think you’ll be rewarded with new faces a lot as it plays out.

5. Are the Pirates Being Cautious with Recovering Players?

I don’t know, honestly, I think they’re doing just about what I expected with all of them. Johan Oviedo will almost assuredly start in AAA on a rehab assignment, Dauri Moreta is already on the 60-day IL, Hunter Stratton will enter the season on the IL and Endy Rodriguez is being restricted to Catching to control the types of throws he makes, at least for a while.

If anything, fans tend to just look at injury timelines and pretend those figures point to when they come back at the top of their game, ready to be everything they are. That’s very often not the same timeline.

I’ve warned you all offseason about putting too much on the plate for any of these guys and this is why.

Oviedo for one, had a really nice 2023 for the Pirates, but he suffered his UCL in part because he was stretched out too much in that same year and they’ll err on the side of cautiousness with him now. Not to mention, right now there isn’t a spot for him in the rotation, so, what’s the rush? Make sure he’s 100% right, and if it goes on too long, find a way to work him into the mix in the pen.

He’ll be limited all year, this fact isn’t going anywhere.

Endy is simply going to have to show his bat is as ready to play as his personality is to impress everyone who deals with him. Easier said than done, especially as a catcher only, he’s not going to get starting reps here, and that isn’t going to do much good for his reacclimating.

Again, the minors aren’t a tragedy for these guys. They’re still promising members of the team who could, and probably should be expected to contribute this year to the big club’s efforts, but taking your time here isn’t a bad thing either.

Not even in 2013, 2014 or 2015 did the Pirates have this much talent on the doorstep while also having a fairly full of MLB level players roster. It’s going to look and feel different for us, if only because we haven’t seen it.

I implore you to understand this isn’t the same thing it was when a kid didn’t make it in 2022, because today the reasons they don’t start here are different, foreign to us even.

There is urgency to win, but that doesn’t equal making all the moves you’d make right this second.

That sounds about Right… field

By now I’m sure you’ve heard that the Pirates aren’t “on the doorstep of anything”?

Not to defend General Manager Ben Cherington here (in and of itself that quote looks pretty bad) but come on. Context matters and in context this quote was pretty innocuous. 

The context? In case you  missed it, Dejan Kovacevic, creator of DK on Sports put out a report where he says that “multiple sources” have told him that the Pirates “main move” is yet to come.  He also reports that payroll and the roster won’t stay the same. 

What does all of this mean? I have zero clues on that and DK gives no hints to help us out. And as the quote above says, the Bucs are not “on the doorstep of anything” that has been rumored by the insiders.

Let’s put aside the idea of a free agent deal, since it’s not really the kind of thing I write about here. Not to mention the only viable free agent that’s an upgrade in any way is OF Alex Verdugo. My personal opinion holds no weight to an organization who doesn’t even know I exist, but I’ll give it anyway: Vedugo might be an improvement, but he ain’t moving the needle. 

Trades, though? Yeah, I love those! So let’s take a look at a few options for the Pittsburgh Ball Club. 

 A few notes here:

-I have no sources, so please don’t take this as a rumor.

-I have no clue if any of these guys will even be available.  

Let’s start with the obvious-Chicago White Sox

Luis Robert Jr- MLB  (SV $20-53M)

There are reports that a few teams have reached out to the White Sox for Robert Jr and that the Sox asking price is too high.

One report suggested they asked the Cincinnati Reds for three of their top prospects, while another reported that SS Edwin Arroyo (once a universal top prospect and still highly regarded) was a potential piece headed back(per Rosenthal). Another sticking point in the deal falling apart is how much money the CWS would retain in moving Robert Jr per that same report.

Coming together on a deal for Robert isn’t going to be easy. Why?

Let’s start with that surplus value range up top. $20-53M is a pretty large range, so how did I get to that? Over the next three seasons Luis is set to make $55M. Zips has him projected at a WAR of 2.7 and if we use that and lock it in over the next three years we land at a surplus of $20M. CHW would like to aim higher and I can’t say I blame them. Once a rising star who had a fWAR of 4.9 at the age of 25, Robert has the talent and skill to be one of the game’s best. In the 2020 shortened season, his fWAR was 1.4. The following season he hit 3.5 fWAR in 68 games. The dude can play when healthy; the trouble is he hasn’t stayed healthy. 145 games is the most he’s played in any given season. And there’s a hefty drop to 100 games, the second most he’s played in a season. (A reminder of the formula we use  for trades.)

So why would the CWS look to get more in a deal for him? Simply put, Luis Robert Jr is in fact the biggest needle mover the Bucs, or any team, could add in a trade right now, so seeking a return for a 4 fWAR per season player (or $53M in SV)  makes sense and so far no team has been able to meet in the middle with Chicago’s General Manager Chris Getz. Let’s take a stab-

Pirates get- 

Luis Robert Jr- OF MLB (SV $20-53M) and retains all the salary a sticking point in the negotiations with the Reds.

White Sox get- 

Choice of 

Thomas Harington or Braxton Ashcraft- SP- ETA 2025: FV 50(SV $21M)

The Bucs would really like to retain both of these arms as both look like high floor starters that could jump right into the Bucs starting rotation as early as opening day. Both have the stuff to be a #3 type starter and the floor of a #5 or bullpen arm.

Liover Peguero-SS/2B-MLB (?)

ZiPs actually has Peggy’s projection at 1.2 fWAR in 129 games for 2025. Full disclosure from someone who is a Peggy truther(me), that number surprises me. And being controlled thru 2030  would net a decent surplus close to the $20M range. Peggy offers SS/2B/3B and has been doing some glove work in the OF in spring training. 

The White Sox interest in Arroyo makes this an easy jump and yes, I get that Peggy is older and at this point less projectable. He’s also flashed some power in the majors hitting 7 HR in 63 games. That could demand some attention from the White Sox GM. 

Jack Suwinski-OF-MLB (SV ?)

Depending on where you sit on Suwinski will determine if you like the inclusion of him  in a deal. Another guy who’s ZiPS projection of 1.7 is a tad surprising to me. And adding up 4 yrs of control at 1.7 fWAR would be a solid number. The power Jack has in his boomstick is still attractive and perhaps the guy can tap into more regularly as a hometown hero in Chicago.

If you’re a White Sox fan, you’re hating this package. I don’t blame you, but  this is the trouble with putting together a package for Robert. Robert drips talent but if you’re a GM looking to add Robert Jr those injuries are troubling to say the least. You need to hedge your bets against him missing chunks of time. 

Getz will have to weigh that as well. If Robert misses anytime this year, it will sink what value he has. And even IF he is having a 4 fWAR type season, how much value will that carry at the July 31st Trade Deadline(July 31st is a Thursday so that should be the date)?  It’d put that SV at about $36M, not all that far from the SV above.

I can see teams still being weary of a potential injury and still wanting a bit of a discount. This is the guy they should be looking at but I’m not sure how comfortable they’d be giving more than a package like this. Termarr Johnson?  Or perhaps a pot sweetener like Tony Blanco Jr OF–FV 35+?

Let’s move on…Baltimore

Heston Kjerstad-OF-MLB (SV upwards of $90M)

Heston has the power to be special and a promising wRC+ of 116 in his first 39 games as a major leaguer.  This will be expensive. Extremely expensive.

O’s get-

Mitch Keller-SP- (SV $15M)

I don’t think the Bucs will move Keller but I also imagine that Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler are off limits. I think the Orioles will prioritize a proven arm. Keller is affordable. He’s reliable. And he can anchor the middle art of a rotation. 

Termarr Johnosn-2B-ETA:2027(SV $28M)

Kids power is developing so I imagine that 50 FV is still attached by many managers.

OK, I’m gonna stop here as the Bucs would still need to add…a lot. Like both Harrington and Ashcraft to that deal. This is just off the table even for a dreamer like me. That said, can the O’s interest GM in a swap of Keller for Cedric Mullins? ZiPS has him at a 2.8 fWAR with a wRC+ of 104. I’m a pass but I like him over Tommy Pham, just sayin’.

How about Jud Fabian? After hitting in  AA (.233/.326/.432 wRC+ 117 with 18 HR)  in 2024 the jump to AAA saw him struggle. His wRC+ dropped to 96. Still, if the Bucs scouts are on board this could be an option. The O’s and the Bucs are a fit for a deal and I think worth keeping an eye on. 

Let’s Pivot to the Los Angeles dodgers. 

Pipedream? 

Bucs get-

Andy Pages-OF-MLB (SV upwards of $90M)

This is my guy. I’ve long loved Andy Pages. The good news? LAD  could very well start him in AAA due to the roster. The bad news, it won’t ruin his surplus value. 

But wait, there is something that could help the Bucs out here. 

Bucs add-

Chris Taylor-3B/OF/2B even SS (SV  -$9M)

Bucs take Taylor and his $13M payday. I don’t care what they do with him. Keep him. Eat money and flip him to another team. Doesn’t matter, if they can ease the pain here to land Pages? You’d have to do it. 

LAD get-

Termarr Johnson-2B-ETA:2027(SV $28M)

Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2025 ($21M)

Yes LAD has Tony Gonsilin, who will be 30? Dude seems to have been around forever and never at the same time. He just hasn’t been able to really establish himself due to injuries, 130 innings being the most  he’s put together. 

LAD has a long list of guys who have recently had TJS. Emmit Shehan, River Ryan and Gavin Stone all succumbed to Mr. Tommy John’s knife last year and likely none will be there to make an impact this  season due to how late their procedure was last year. 

This leaves Bobby Miller and Landon Knack as the next man up. Knack profiles to the bullpen and I think that’s where he ends up. Miller was supposed to be the next big time starter for the Dodgers.  But in 56 innings his stuff hasn’t translated. In fact, he’s been smacked around  a good deal. (ERA north of 8). By no means is he a guy you give up on but adding another 50 FV starter ready to make the jump? I’m sure that would be something that LAD would like to have sitting around. 

Jack Suwinski-OF-MLB See above

Taking Pages would leave a void and I can see LAD being interested in the power profile, hey why not.

Yordany De Los Santos-SS-ETA:2027 FV 45(SV $6M)

This would be more than a sweetener to the deal. Think the Oneil Cruz deal. DLS has a ton of untapped potential. 

In the end I doubt LAD would take this deal but I do wonder how close it comes. After being rejected the Bucs could turn their attention to James Outman. James is two years removed from a 4 WAR campaign but at 27 years old I’d call him a change of scene candidate. Not the ideal ad but one I can see GMBC having interest in. 

One more… Off to Boston

Wilyer Abreu-OF-MLB (SV $78M)

Coming off a 3.1 WAR rookie season it’s possible the Red Sox will look north of that $78M surplus. But ZiPS has him at 2.4 WAR in his sophomore campaign. Can we make sense of this?

Boston gets-

Henry Davis or Endy Rodriguez-C-MLB 

Believe it or not, ZiPS has Davis projected to have  a solid 1.5 WAR campaign. Five years of 1.5 ball adds up to a decent surplus. And Endy? He comes in at a 1.9 projection with the same amount of control. His value will come in a little higher than Oh Henry’s.   

 Boston C’s situation isn’t great. The everyday guy is Connor Wong. The back is Carlos Narvaez. Their projected wRC+ is 81 and 94. Upgrading their C situation  would be a major boost to their playoff hopes. 

Don’t get me wrong, no team is viewing these guys at a $40M SV right now. Let’s cut in half, $20M surplus value. 

Braxton Ashcraft or Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2025 FV 50 ($21M)

The Sox did a nice job of upgrading their rotation this offseason. Finishing with a top arm ready to make the jump would be a good way to finish the job. Not to mention the “next man up” is one Quinn Priester, either starter here is an upgrade over QP.

Termarr Johnson-SP-ETA:2027 FV 50(SV $28M) 

TJ is a common thread for any of the controllable quality upgrades. (As is one of Ashcraft/Harrington).

Is this enough? I think upgrading C and a controllable arm could be close. 

Not enough for Boston? How about gambling on 

Marcello Mayer-SS-ETA: 2025 FV 50(SV $28M)

The Pirates passed on Mayer in the 2021 draft opting to take Henry Davis at 1:1. This allowed them to take and sign Bubba Chandler(a notable win for GMBC). Mayer was long considered the big prize of that draft so I would think the front office is well informed of his skill and growth. He struggled in AA in 23 but rebounded in 24. Carrying a strong .307/.370/.480 wRC+ of 142 slash line has right back on track. 

Set to debut in 2025(if all goes right) so why would Boston consider moving the SS? Kristian Campbell has passed him in the pecking order by a good mile. I can see a package of Davis or Endy headed back with one of the AAA arms being close to getting it done. If not, keep tweaking it until it’s done. 

This piece referred to right field, so I apologize for veering off course but SS is another area the Bucs could address, no offense Isiah Kiner-Falefa. 

How’s about…

Washington Nationals 

Robert Hassell III-OF- ETA:2025 FV 35+ (SV $1M)
Once a huge prospect but has slipped as of late. Big gamble with a possible big payoff. 

Houston Astros

Pedro Leon-OF-Debuted- FV 35+ (SV $1M)

The power is there for Pedro, but so are some swing and miss concerns. 

The cost for these two will be… how should I put this? In the aisle that Cherington likes to shop in. 

Wrap it up

Fans want a “big move” here. And believe me, I get it. I’ve covered a few of the names we’ve seen thrown around this offseason and one thing should be abundantly clear: landing a big controllable name is not cheap. When Joe Boyd and I started putting together ‘Two Guys Talkin’ Trades’ all of those years ago (when we were young and innocent) the Pirates were entering a rebuild. 

One of the earlier pieces we attacked was moving Bryan Reynolds when Reynolds had 4+ years of control. Take a look at that piece. Then see if you can put together that kind of package for a Heston Kjerstad. Ask yourself if the minor league system GMBC built can sustain giving up prime real estate for Andy Pages. 

When DK put his report out there he didn’t specify if the “main move” would end up being a trade or a free agent. I very much imagine that deep throat wasn’t willing or cleared to give up that much intel. A need to know basis only, ya dig? 

But when it comes to these trades it’s never the names we hope it will be. It’s almost never the obvious trade rumor that dropped a week ago. More often than not it’s a Nick Yorke for a Quinn Priester.  And that’s ok; there can still be a win in that kind of package.

Here’s to hoping that GMBC finally makes a notable move. That the move is good enough to truly make this lineup better. Most likely won’t be the hero we want, but I hope it’s the hero we need.  The fans of this ball club deserve it.  

Mr. Ben, it’s time to finally be on that doorstep to…somewhere.

More Than Anything, Andrew Heaney Changes the Math

2-21-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I’m not going to bury the lede here, this is a really good signing for this ballclub.

A veteran lefty with a recent history of eating innings. This isn’t a typical Pirates reclamation project, this is a guy who’s just been a fairly consistent performer over his 11 years.

The 33 year old may have come cheap agreeing to 5.25 million but he adds proven meat to this rotation, and helps the team not force youngsters into action prematurely.

Last year, Andrew Heaney pitched for Texas, his second with the club and he handled 160 innings with a 4.28 ERA in 32 games all of which were starts save 1. A healthy 1.25 WHIP, 159 K’s against only 41 walks.

He won’t blow you away with the fastball, but his offspeed stuff is ranked in the 86th percentile in the game, and his walk rate in the 83rd percentile is pretty damn good as well.

Bottom line, this is a solid back end of the rotation pitcher and my goodness does he help the math.

A pitching staff has to cover 1,458 innings, give or take a few. I mean, that number is based on no extra innings, and having to pitch the 9th every single night which of course isn’t right, but it’s not all that far off and for the purposes of our conversation, let’s roll with it.

The Pirates had…
Paul Skenes – Wants to throw 240 innings, hard to believe they’ll let him.
Mitch Keller – Badly wanted 200 innings each of the last two seasons, hasn’t made it yet.
Jared Jones – 132.2 innings last year between MLB and his rehab innings in Indy.
Bailey Falter – 145.1 last year including his rehab outing.

Those are the 4 we knew would be there. We had a list of other guys who could like Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, and Johan Oviedo until the Pirates just about closed the door on that for opening day anyway, and, well, who knows right?

If I’m being generous, those 4 are maybe 740? If a whole hell of a lot goes great? I mean, I’m not giving Paul 240, I’m not sure they should try to get 200 out of Keller the way he’s finished each of the last two seasons, maybe less is more there ya know? I gave Jones a nice bump to around 160 and I gave Bailey the same.

So you add in Heaney with his 160 or so and now you’re talking about 900 innings potentially covered by your rotation.

Now, you add in the contributions of that list of guys as the season plays out and of course the bullpen and it looks a lot easier to get there then it did before the addition.

I’m not even touching how comfortable I am with Falter. Look, Bailey was pretty good last year, but let’s be truthful here, our expectations for him were so low entering 2024, it was incredibly easy to see him as a pleasant surprise all season long.

But compare his numbers to Heaney…

2025Bailey FalterAndrew Heaney
Innings142.1160
ERA4.434.28
WHIP1.291.25
K’s97159
BB’s4541
Starts2831

On paper, that looks like an upgrade. He’s older, he’s not under team control beyond this season like Bailey, but he’s got over 1,000 MLB innings under his belt has pitched on a World Series winner in 2023.

The kids will have their day. Injuries will happen, performance will make it impossible to ignore who belongs where, but if you have a chance to start the season feeling you can rely on all 5 of your starters before Spring even starts, you’ve done well, especially if they’re likely holding off more talented players.

It’s sexy to picture Bubba making the rotation and Ashcraft too, but the innings are a reality nobody can avoid. Almost everyone on that list of players I put up there who likely get pushed out of the competition now, well, they’ll all struggle to get to the 100-120 range at least in MLB this year. That math gets tough…

The Pirates just bought themselves some time and likely fewer grey hairs.

Outlook Hayesy

2-21-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

One of the players for whom fans have had the most up-and-down expectations and results over the past few years, Ke’Bryan Hayes has had some high highs and some low lows in his first five seasons in black and gold.

He surged to a stellar Covid-abbreviated 2020 before struggling through injuries and offensive ineffectiveness despite becoming one of the best defenders in baseball. As one of the biggest contracts in Pirates history, a lot is riding on his oft-injured back. Can he finally push past the criticism lobbed at him or continue catching flak as he continues to scuffle with the Bucs?

Hayes was drafted by the Pirates 32nd overall in the 2015 MLB Draft and steadily moved up the ranks in the minors with a solid .279/.354/.399 slash line over 1,991 plate appearances from 2015 to 2019. In that stretch, he won minor league Gold Gloves each of his last three years, showing early on that his biggest impact to the team would likely be via the glove-work.

When he debuted with the Pirates on September 1, 2020, Ke’ showed an unexpectedly strong affinity for offensive production, going 2-for-5 with a double and home run in his first game, scoring 3 runs and driving in a pair.

And he just didn’t stop.

Hayes played in 24 games in 2020 – all coming in September – and failed to record a hit in just 4 of those matches while reaching base in all but two games. In that time, Ke’ notched 14 extra base hits and posted a .376/.442/.682 slash line with a 194 wRC+ while playing ELITE defense as he was worth 4 Defensive Runs Saved over that short stretch, per Fielding Bible.

Fans proclaimed that Hayes should be Rookie of the Year – he finished 6th – but were highly anticipating what Ke’ would be able to produce over a 162-game stretch.

Unfortunately, Hayes was unable to maintain his whopping .450 BABIP from 2020 as he offense dropped to below average in 2021and 2022 as he posted a .249/.315/.356 line with an 86 wRC+ over 956 plate appearances through his first full major league seasons – missing two months in ’21 due to “wrist soreness” and spending another shorter stint on the IL in ’22 due to a “mild back strain.”

This would be a sign of things to come.

While Hayes signed his big contract (8 years/$70M, a then-record for the Pirates) heading into the 2022 season, it seemed that the team was relying on his glove to live up to the contract and if the bat came back around, it would just be a boost.

And 2023 started much the same way that his previous two seasons had gone as Hayes limped along with a 61 wRC+ through the first two months of the season with a .216/.270/.337 slash line. But then, something clicked. He had a 2-hit game on May 31 and continued from there, securing hits in 12 of the next 14 games.

He missed a few weeks in July due to “low back inflammation” but returned in August and picked up where he left off, hitting 13 home runs over his final 310 plate appearances and posting a 128 wRC+ and .867 OPS over that time as he went on to finally wrest the 3B Gold Glove from Nolan Arenado.

Was this it? Had Ke’ finally arrived?

Well, he once again benefited from a lofty BABIP (only .359 this time) but was hitting the ball harder than ever (91.9 average exit velocity) with a HardHit% of 49.1% and Barrel rate of 8.3% from 5/31 through the end of the year.

It was certainly promising, and if Ke’ could stay healthy, he was now showing what he could do. Unfortunately, as Pirates fan luck often goes, it wouldn’t last.

Hayes dealt with lingering back issues into the 2024 season, spending multiple stretches on the IL as he played in just 96 games last year with career-worst marks across the board as he slashed just .233/.283/.290 with a 59 wRC+.

Despite the offensive issues, Hayes was still producing with the glove. In fact, even with missing significant time due to injuries over the past few years, Hayes has been the best defender in MLB since his debut in 2020. Actually, I’ll do you one better: Go back to 2019 – a year in which Hayes spent zero innings on a major league roster – he still leads the pack by 6 or more Total Runs Saved.

Heading into this spring, Ke’ has revamped his swing, switching from a one-handed follow-through to a two-handed one designed to put less strain on his lower back. He has reportedly been working on changing nearly every aspect of his life in order to reduce stress on his lower back and hopefully ensure he keeps it healthy enough to play through a full season.

https://twitter.com/andrewdestin1/status/1890430563535761579?s=46&t=uS-wvKiQUPugLtQFzfMtqQ

Reports out of camp are that Ke’ looks much happier and healthier than he did last year – and even if that is a cliché, it’s a lot better than the alternative.

Is it going to work? If he’s healthy, he’s shown he can be among the best in baseball. If he’s not, he’s shown he can be among the worst.

Which one are we going to get this year?

I don’t know. Consult a Magic 8 Ball and you tell me.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Games Start This Week

2-17-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

You know, something struck me in the first week of Spring Training and it’s insanely obvious.

All of the stuff we’ve argued about over the offseason. All the disappointment in who they got, who they didn’t, who they won’t. Well, in one image I just couldn’t bring myself to think of anything else. Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller throwing side by side by side.

And I don’t even think Bubba is going to break camp with the team.

Stick with me for a minute here, because it’s not just about who breaks camp, it’s about the shear amount of and quality of starting pitching talent this team has at the moment.

I saw that picture, and froze.

Struggling to remember the last time I honestly thought the Pirates had 5 solid starting pitchers. 2013 maybe? I mean 2014 they had Vance Worley start 17 games. 2015, maybe at the end after they got J.A. Happ?

Even then, we’re talking about just 5 that I feel good about.

This year the Pirates have Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Bubba Chandler and at least 4 others who in just about any other year would be considered at least a good shot at a prospect who’d turn out.

We don’t know if they can all stay healthy. we don’t know how they’ll all perform, hell we don’t even know which 5 they’ll start with, but I’ll tell you one absolute fact that we should all really embrace…

There is absolutely no path to winning in a small market unless you build and develop affordable, top end pitching, and do so much of it you can afford to replace guys with younger models rather than paying them big paydays.

You can turn that into a Bob discussion, or just accept it as a reality of the MLB financial structure, but you can’t deny a market like this absolutely has to have it.

Yes, there’s another side of the game. Yes, they’re behind there.

I’m just saying, if they had been successful on the other side and didn’t have the pitching, this franchise would be in a worse position both now and in the future than they currently are.

Your gut is going to reject this statement, but really think about it. Then go see what a 3rd or 4th starter costs in free agency.

I’m not saying they should schedule a parade. I’m just saying the one thing they absolutely can’t win without, they’ve secured, and built something that looks sustainable on that side of the ball.

1. But…But…Pitching is Currency Gary!

That intro paragraph probably sends many of you into the death spiral you’ve spent all offseason in. Why not trade some of that pitching depth for offensive talent then right?

Well, try to disassociate what I’m about to say with opinion. I’m not telling you what they should do, should have done, or will or won’t do. I’m just going to try to explain there are more ways to see pitching as currency than trading top ranked prospects for parts and pieces.

Let’s take Mitch Keller for instance. Mitch is signed through 2028 his age 32 season, and he’ll be making over 20 million per season by the time he gets there. If Mitch simply holds serve, maybe gets a bit more consistent, the Pirates probably hope that they have Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, Johan Oviedo and Bubba Chandler rolling by then. Mitch would be a guy who could be dealt after say 2026 or 2027 both to make room and to restock the system.

Not only would they likely not want to pay him over 20 million, they certainly don’t want to have him walk for nothing. More importantly than anything, they simply might not consider him to be sure fire one of their best 3-4 starting pitchers.

Now, by this area of the timeline, good chance Jared Jones and Paul Skenes are minimally starting to cost something in Arbitration too, so the natural payroll bloat will be in full effect. Heck, Oneil Cruz by then will be in year 2 or 3 of arbitration, do I need to tell you what that might cost if he hits 25-30 dingers for the next couple years?

Did you notice I didn’t mention Bailey Falter? Well, he’s a free agent in 2029, and while I don’t see the Pirates extending him, he just got 2.2 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility, he has 3 more. If he continues to perform, he’ll get 10-15 million by the end of this string. Highly likely he is traded before we get there, yes, because he costs money, but also because younger, higher pedigree kids are replacing him cheaper with more upside. All that supposes he continues to perform of course which is absolutely not a guarantee. Point is, if he’s here in 2028 I’ll eat my hat.

None of this means you can’t sell off a Harrington, or Barco, or even Oviedo at some point here for offensive help, but if you do too much of it, or pick the wrong guys when you do, you wind up standing there in 2028 realizing you can’t deal Keller, cause you need him now.

Again, as an example.

The Pirates do fear risk, more than they should in my mind, but there’s a reason they don’t look at all this pitching and think they have a boatload of expendable assets. Like I said in the intro today, there is zero possibility to win in this market without homegrown, controllable, high-end pitching talent on a conveyer belt.

I’ve said this before, and it certainly doesn’t mean it’ll work or that he’s the right guy to do it, but Ben Cherington is not trying for a “window” he’s trying for a self sustaining system.

Win or Lose.

The Brewers have done this for years. Burnes and Williams as the latest examples. Again, their hope is Peralta becomes their new “ace” and some of their prospects who just started emerging become the next core of starters. They trade them for prospect help and restock the team. The machine keeps operating.

That’s the dream, executed well it can work. They’re closer to a setup that could actually create this in Pittsburgh than I’ve ever seen.

2. Liover Peguero Diversifies His Skill Set

Liover Peguero is 24 years old. I know, feels like he should be like 27 for how long we’ve been talking about him right?

He has 1 option left, meaning one more season in which the Pirates can send him to AAA and keep him on the 40-man roster.

In an effort to increase his opportunity to make it and stick, Liover has started working out at First Base, as well as Third.

It’s noteworthy if only because should his bat play, he’s opening a door for options he previously didn’t have, like filling in for an injured first baseman to open the season maybe? Backing up positions like Jared Triolo has in case he’s asked to lock in somewhere. I know Pirates fans traditionally hate the phrase “positional flexibility” but when you’re a borderline AAA prospect, it’s imperative you prove you don’t need the perfect storm of happenings to get the call.

Bottom line with Peggy, he needs to hit. There are a lot of expected members of this 26-man roster come April, but it’s awful hard to pretend it’s all locked up when the offense was so putrid last year. Anyone in theory who hits could really push them into a decision, some like Peguero probably have an easier path to this reality than others. 4 years is a long time to survive a 40-man with very little MLB impact or opportunity.

Decisions will be made, Peguero is just trying to make them at the very least a bit harder.

3. Can Braxton Ashcraft Take a Spot?

Listen, the Pirates very much so have a slot open for their 5th spot in the rotation. Meaning, they need 5 and have 4 locked in. Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter and a host of kids fighting it out for the last spot to break camp.

In order of plausibility before one pitch is thrown in anger this offseason…

Johan Oviedo – Returning from UCL surgery and staring down the barrel at a season of having his innings restricted big time. He might start out the gate, but physically he can’t all year. One way or another.

Mike Burrows – Polished is the best way I can describe Mike. He was just about ready back in 2022 when he had his procedure and clawed all the way back last season in the minors. Now at 25 years old, Burrows is looking to follow his cup of coffee with a strong Spring and a ticket to the show.

Braxton Ashcraft – Oft injured over the years, this kid is a specimen to see on the mound. Velocity for days, and easy velocity with command all wrapped in a 25 year old body. He was arguably the third most impressive pitcher in camp last year behind Skenes and Jones, and he’s still right there although our next entry has caught up if not surpassed him. He also discovered some mechanical changes this offseason that should help keep him healthier.

Bubba Chandler – Looks like a stud. If I hadn’t just watched Paul Skenes do what he did, well, I’d be acting like I did last year watching him do just about anything. But he’s not on the 40-man, and those spots are valuable. He also has almost no AAA experience to speak of, not that anyone at that level is going to test him much. He’ll be hard to prevent from being called up in 2025 if healthy.

Thomas Harrington – Everything I said about Bubba, but less visually dominant. Note, visually, because his stuff gets outs, and he does it with elite command. He’s just not gonna put you on your ass with a fastball, or more accurately, doesn’t need to.

For shear stuff alone, there aren’t many built like Braxton Ashcraft. The urge to move him to the bullpen by fans may one day be the case, but it’s also in part based on how much time he’s lost to injury over the years, not his ability to get outs or go through a lineup multiple times. He absolutely has what it takes to both be in this conversation and to win it.

As we’ve already discussed today in the vast majority of this piece, there aren’t too many years in Pirates history where this kid would be almost an afterthought.

4. Injury Gate – The Horwitz Scandal

LOL, scandal.

I mean, that’s how it’s being treated anyway.

Listen, this isn’t hard. Spencer Horwitz had a wrist issue that cropped up periodically and didn’t keep him from playing in Toronto for any measurable time. He’d seen a doctor, the doctor filed a report, and both the Guardians and Pirates saw said report and both decided it was not enough to keep them from acquiring him.

After Pirates Fest, Horwitz ramped up his offseason progression toward Spring Training and injured a tendon in his thumb/wrist/hand. A different and unrelated injury.

The same exact doctor consulted and this time recommended surgery to repair the injury.

This repair is not to help the pre-existing issue, it’s to address the new injury only. That’s how unconcerned they are with the “chronic” injury he has been dealing with. So concerned they had him opened up and chose not to touch it. At least that’s how it’s been reported.

He’ll likely be back before Spring ends, but is much less likely to break camp with the club.

The Guardians and Blue Jays didn’t “fool” Cherington. He didn’t pull the trigger on a guy without doing his due diligence. A dude got hurt after being acquired, and the reason nobody is panicking is primarily because Horwitz wasn’t acquired with one year left on his deal so it’s 2025 or bust, he was acquired because they have control of him for 6 full seasons including this one and they think he can and will help.

This was primarily and typically for this franchise, a poor choice of words, amplified by a GM who simply can’t give clean answers.

Just like Endy getting hurt in the Dominican Winter League wasn’t their fault, this is just another instance of shitty luck. It sucks. It’s a setback for him and the team, but it’s not a season ender, nor is it going to cause them to panic and re-address first base.

You want to talk about an injury they caused? How about having Johan Oviedo throw 170 some innings in 2023. Before that season he’d never thrown more than 142 at any level and that was back in 2019. They pushed it, and he and they paid the price.

This is just something that happened.

Breathe.

5. Is There Really is Another Move Coming?

I’ll say this, I fully believe it’s their intention to do so.

I put it that way because when you enter Spring, let’s just say, things change.

For the Pirates, let’s say they had Braxton Ashcraft pegged as a movable piece, and as this thing goes on, they watch him pitch and practice for 3-4 weeks and now, well, maybe they aren’t so sure.

Maybe they want a Left Fielder to start over Pham, but as the Spring starts to play out, they convince themselves that Jack and Palacios are both decent bets to help?

We could also see players who aren’t available now become available as we get closer to the season. Teams like LA or Boston who have really stocked up on MLB talents, might now have some promising options that shake loose and suddenly they don’t need 2 of your top 100 prospects to get it done.

The Pirates could have someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa suffer an injury and having no backup SS with much MLB experience they might panic and see if they can address it.

Maybe Bednar hurts himself again and they can’t envision entering the season with no defined closer.

None of this stuff is what they’re talking about when they say they’d like to add another player, but again, things change when your cleats fill with mud and grass.

They won’t and shouldn’t be closed off to many moves that make sense, neither should you. See a rumor that someone is getting squeezed out, assume the Pirates are a potential landing spot.

That’s likely how something like this would come together.