The Offseason Cycle Transitions to Spring Training

2-15-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The offseason of baseball is in and of itself, a predetermined cycle, not unlike the actual season.

I mean, in this market, it’s traditionally started in like August.

Either way, I can script out much of it before it happens and to a degree, they apply to all fanbases really.

  1. Season Ends – the demands for firings or cuttings of players who did literally anything that prevented a championship. That’s my inclusive to all market season end. Here, we absolutely have the addition of fire the owner too.
  2. Realization Sets In – the team tells you quickly which changes, if any they intend to make, at least to the staff. Argue amongst yourselves. Cope, whatever you do.
  3. Increase Demands – well NOW is the time to go “all in”! Because we have this player/Because the division is…/Because We Deserve!!! and on and on. Even Yankees fans did this stuff, but here we have a tendency to demand more than we know possible, that’s certainly not the conversation every fan base is having.
  4. Get Mad Changes Haven’t Begun – This tends to happen before free agency really starts. This is just revving the engine and jumping at the gate. It’s also fairly new, and something I actively participate in. Some of us who have a podcast or a website, or whatever, content creators, we’re trying to invent topics when the baseball world is in hibernation.
  5. Jealousy – With few exceptions, the jealousy of the haves and have nots or will and won’t crowd I suppose has their place. This offseason the spending has been noticed on both the high and low end. The disparity grows no matter who you blame….so we blame each other of course. lol
  6. Realization – You’ve probably expected too much of your team… You know that, but you’re going to blame them because you were right, and they just won’t do it. You see your wish list dwindle and begin to compromise what is and isn’t acceptable as a signing. You know what I mean, if you’re starving and the only hot meal for hours is Burger King it tastes better.
  7. Panic – You had a list of needs that any idiot would address exactly in the fashion you suggested. They have not either done it your way, nor have they addressed the entire list. Spring Training is about to start!
  8. Spring Has Sprung – Extreme optimism from everyone who wears cleats. Cautious evasiveness from everyone who wears a suit or Polo shirt. Some fan bases are debating which star player will be on the bench, others are praying the team knows that guy they signed isn’t a starter. There are still sights and sounds, and rah rah, underestimate us at your peril speeches from 24 year olds who have no idea what they have in front of them.
  9. News Dump – A flurry of interviews, breakdowns, new players, returning from injury players and speculation on their injuries from people who got C’s in science back in the day. It’s rapid fire and it really sends us into a tailspin.

You aren’t alone is the point, to a degree most fan bases do all this stuff.

Now all of that, all that investment and worry and pain and anguish and examination, man, that’s all for us. The weirdos. We are fans who don’t shut off baseball for the other sports. The fans who really think about this all year long.

Like, listen, there are enough of you that it’s worth having a year round show and writing all year, that’s why we do it, but we’re like 25% of the fans out there. There are plenty who skip almost all this stuff and will be back invested in the actual season.

They root for their team, they maybe put out some kind of end of the season comment and walk away. Maybe pop up and say something about a “bigger” move that makes the network news. But largely, they’ll just be back some time during Spring and then they’ll join the chorus of the they didn’t do enough, never do enough, won’t do enough conversations 25 fanbases will be having.

The framework is there, and unconsciously, we follow it. This offseason has been more frustrating than most for the Pirates fan base. And it’s been hard to watch, or honestly muster up the energy to participate in it.

The Pirates actively chose to intentionally stink at baseball for years in order to get high draft picks, and lots of pool money in the hopes they could acquire generational talent in the only way this franchise can actually afford.

They’ve got some promising kids, and one absolute lock, sure fire generational talent baseball player.

You’re going to hate hearing this, and I’m in no way saying they will win a World Series, or make the playoffs this year, or succeed in any way other than this one way.

They have succeeded in that one aspect of their “plan”. Paul Skenes is the dream. He’s the Bobby Witt, the Ronald Acuna, the star.

The fan base know their history and while this generational kid inspired hope, he also starts the clock on how long you as a fan expect him to be here.

The urgency you have, was not met. Not in the way you hoped. Now we wait to see if they do anything else, or if they were right about what they had and pray we underestimated them.

This offseason saw fan protests, and billboard campaigns calling for Bob to sell the team. I always understood why, I guess I just thought it was really more of a 2020 argument. I mean, we’ve been telling you on this site from our inception that this was a team that’s not going to spend for some time. Payroll will increase incrementally, based on extensions and arbitration awards. This is not a team that is going to sign big money free agents. Until they panic.

See, for the Pirates, they’ll reach the panic stage we fans have every season when they get to what they accept as Paul Skenes’ last season or two here in Pittsburgh, should they not extend him of course. By just the natural incline they’ll get better, even if it’s little by little, and they’ll be more expensive, little by little too. I think 125-130 by 2028, again, if they go as cheap as possible and don’t dump anyone. Well right around then, we’ll see if they panic and spend.

To me that’s the best bet to EVER see Nutting actually spend uncomfortably. And I’m not going crazy here, but 150? Maybe one bigger-ish free agent?

I still expect this team to improve in 2025, I’m not sure why there has been such a seemingly universal thought that they’ve somehow regressed. I just can’t feel that way and feel the way I do about this pitching staff. That aspect of this club could be special, legitimately. And the offense is largely young, with upside.

I don’t know what I think that’ll all add up to yet. Hell, I still think they’re going to make another deal. But I think we’ll see progress this year.

Maybe not enough. Maybe just to move us a year closer to the owner panicking.

But I have to just mentally put this offseason behind me. It was caustic to watch play out.

If this thing was ever going to work, they had to have generational talent, and they had to build the most expensive part of the team, pitching, internally. I think they’ve done well to do this, and they padded the odds by bringing in a stud pitcher whisperer in Brent Strom to keep the program moving and sure up some areas that needed tightening. He’s grabbing the baton from Dewey Robinson who has been here from almost the beginning working through out the system developing this pipeline of arms we now see coming.

This is NOT how we felt last year about this organization on the mound. And it’s a game changer, one that makes just about any outcome possible, with the exception of the owner buying a whole lot of who scores the runs.

Make no mistake though, you don’t build the pitching, you don’t win without spending. Build the pitching, and there’s a path.

Now we see if the other side of the ball has a coming out party like pitching talent has.

In other words, I’m not going to frustrate myself out of enjoying what I legitimately think has some legs yet. Even while I think it could be done better.

Can we fast forward to first pitch? Because I’m not even going to touch how all of our expectations could change on a dime depending on how the 2027 CBA shakes out. Maybe they come out of it with some kind of franchise tag? LOL, hey a guy can dream right.

Play ball!

Can David Put His Struggles to Bed-nar?

2-14-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pitchers and catchers reported this week and while there are a number of young arms catching looks down in Bradenton, another one enters this spring with a lot to prove as David Bednar hopes to overcome the issues that plagued his underwhelming 2024 after a stretch where he was one of the best relievers in MLB.

But, after pitching to a 5.77 ERA over 56.2 innings with 7 blown saves on the year, can Bednar bounce-back to his All Star form?

Bednar was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball from 2021  through 2023. Among relief pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched over that span, the Renegade ranked 3rd in ERA (2.25), 4th in FIP (2.56), 8th in WHIP (1.06) and 10th in K% (31.2%) and netting two All Star selections in that span.

So, what happened?

It seems that there are two BIG reasons that led to David’s struggles in 2024. The first is a shortened Spring Training due to both a right lat injury and a left oblique strain, which resulted in him pitching just 2 innings in two appearances.

Despite the abbreviated spring, the team elected not to start his season on the Injured List and Bednar blew saves in 3 of his first 5 appearances as he struggled to shake off rust and get himself ready for a major league season and leading to a very meme-worthy quote by Rowdy Tellez.

https://twitter.com/mearshannah_/status/1777785936866066671?s=46&t=uS-wvKiQUPugLtQFzfMtqQ

After struggling for a few more weeks, Bednar appeared to turn a corner in May as he posted a 1.77 ERA over 20.1 innings pitched from May 4th through June 19th before landing on the IL due to the left oblique strain which hampered his spring.

Bednar returned to the team on July 12th but he wasn’t sharp or effective, posting nine consecutive games with runners reaching base and allowing earned runs in 7 of those outings.

This brings us to the other likely reason for Bednar’s struggles last year: He was tipping pitches.

If you haven’t already checked it out, former closer Trevor May broke this news late last season on his YouTube, and the video seems pretty clear that hitters were seeing this too.

Over his final 3 months of the season, Bednar posted a 6.49 ERA over 26.1 innings and allowed nearly as many walks (21) as he recorded strikeouts (26) over that time. But there is reason to think he can return to his prior All Star form.

For starters, 23 of his 62 appearances resulted in a 1-2-3 inning without allowing a baserunner. Only six of his appearances led to 2 or more earned runs – though, invariably, the magnitude is greater given the circumstances surrounding those blow-ups.

Additionally, someone in the Pirates organization clearly saw the May video as Bednar made some tweaks in how he held the ball and allowed earned runs in just two of his final 9 appearances after the video dropped.

And the one thing that didn’t suffer last season was his “stuff” as his fastball ticked up from an average 96.6 MPH in ‘23 to 97.2 in ‘24. All three of his offerings – 4-seam, curve and splitter – posted above-average metrics in Stuff+, which accounts for less tangible aspects of a pitch including location, velocity, spin rate and release point.

Bednar has arrived at Spring Training with a singular focus: Proving to everyone that last year was a mere blemish and he is ready to start slinging high heat and making hitters look silly. He’s eager to reclaim the closer role and re-establish himself as one of the best closers in the National League.

Can he do it? We’ll soon find out.

Bucs Prospect Watch – Termarr Johnson

2-11-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

Pirates fans are all familiar with Termarr Johnson. Johnson was a very high-profile prep player
for several years and the Bucs called his name at the podium with the 4th overall selection in 2022. The organization and fans alike expected great things from the youngster right out of the gate. Now with two full years in the system, things have not gone entirely to plan.
What has happened? Heralded at draft time for possessing an extremely advanced hit tool,
what we have seen thus far is a different type of profile altogether.

I do not think that pointing this out is either controversial or even a bad thing. There is plenty to like still. Maybe Johnson does not ever live up to such lofty hit tool grades that were once placed upon him, but there are multiple paths to production in baseball.

Path to Success?
Across most prospect ranking sites, Johnson’s stock has tumbled due to his profile making a
sharp turn. He is not the advanced hit tool prep most evaluators expected but instead he is
something a little different. To date his performance is more akin to a moderate to lower batting average, high OBP, slugging keystone instead. I want you to envision a player like a kind of Max Muncy-lite profile. Albeit with less over the fence power and greater athleticism mixed in.

In 2024 Termarr put forth the following A+ key stats:
Triple slash: .238/.372/.385
ISO: .147
wRC+: 123
wOBA: .359
xDamage: .364
GB%: 44.8%

Followed by his ending stint in AA Altoona:
Triple slash: .229/.316/.396
ISO: .167
wRC+: 98
wOBA: .316
xDamage: .311
GB%: 51.3%
The numbers are disappointing, there is no way around it. But there are also extremely
encouraging factors working in his favor. One being his age. He will not turn 21 until mid-season in 2025. All of his age 20-21 season will be spent in the upper minors and he will be several years young for the level(s). All things considered that is a huge positive. The other most encouraging point is that Johnson has an extremely strong grasp of the strike zone.

This one is important. It helps to set up a solid floor, while at the same time laying the groundwork for a higher level of performance to stack on top.
Granted, A+ & AA are not the Major Leagues, but Termarr has consistently posted lower chase
rates than the MLB-average. Pairing this with a near MLB-average (82%) zone contact % in AA (77.8) and we see a very young player with an advanced understanding of the zone. If we take this information to heart and then look back above at the middling-to-underwhelming xDamage and his propensity to put the ball on the ground too often, perhaps we can see what the focus may be for 2025.

As a brief aside here; xDamage (otherwise known as xwOBACON) measures a hitters ability to produce on balls in play. When you see folks discussing Quality of Contact (QoC) this is often what they are referring to. It looks at a variety of factors such as Launch Angle & Exit Velocity of batted balls. There is more to it than this but simply put; high quality QoC combines higher exit velocities with optimal launch angles. Such contact typically equates to higher batting averages and/or slugging percentages.

Whether it is a matter of optimizing pitch selection & attacking “better” pitches within the zone or tweaking the swing/attack angles, getting the most out of Termarr’s QoC could catapult him back into the tier of highly esteemed prospects in short order. Anyone who watches Johnson can see the obvious quickness of his hands. The potential is there. Can the player and the organization work toward maximizing the QoC? Time will tell. Personally, I am betting on them being up to the task.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Ready or Not, Here Comes Baseball

2-10-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

After an offseason filled with demands, questions and angst, there’s no avoiding that baseball is back as pitchers and catchers report across the league. Teams can still add of course, trades can still take place, but one way or another, you’re days away from the bright sunlight of Bradenton exposing for everyone to see exactly what you thought was good enough.

What should be turns into what is.

No matter what we wanted them to do. No matter what they decided to do to build around the very real high end talent they have. At some point you have to put it on the field and see what it does.

That’s….Almost….where we are.

1. It’s Not Just Money

The Pirates signed two role players recently, Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham. Yeah, I’ve heard all about how underwhelmed you are, me too.

My thing is, if you were going to go cheap, why not go get a guy like Kike Hernandez who just re-upped with the Dodgers. He gives you a viable backup short stop, can play the outfield if you’d like, 3B, whatever. Has a ton of playoff experience and experience in a championship room. Not a great player by any stretch, but he’s a professional hitter who’s used to riding the pine and being effective when called upon.

Listen, it’s not like I’ve pined for this guy all offseason. It’s not even like I believe he’s a huge difference maker. It’s just that to me he’s a better fit for what they’re trying to find.

Had they signed Hernandez, believe me, I know better than to assume he’d be accepted as a “good” signing by this fan base. Hell, I probably would have treated it as a just ok addition when I wrote it up. But for similar money to what they wound up doing, I’m simply saying it could have been spent more effectively.

Hernandez loves playing in LA and he’s a relative folk hero there for his playoff excellence year after year, so who knows what it takes to have him happily accept going elsewhere, but to me, they aren’t even shopping for guys who could really help them, instead opting for place holders, prioritizing guys who could or should be beaten out for playing time over guys who could be capable depth.

I can blame Bob Nutting for things just as easily as 75% of commenters, but this sort of stuff, that’s not on him, that’s on a GM who simply doesn’t seem to see additions to this club the way just about everyone else does.

I’m anxious to meet our backup short stop. I’m not sure they or I could even hazard a guess as to who he is.

I’d care a lot less if I thought the starter was a good choice.

2. The Position Players

As I see it now, this roster is largely in place.

You get 13 spots.

Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Spencer Horwitz, Joey Bart, Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen seem to be the for sures.

That’s 8 of the 13.

So 5 more spots.

Second base will be either Nick Gonzales or Nick Yorke so that brings you to 4. Adam Frazier will be a bench bat, that’s 3.

You have to have another outfielder, that’s Jack Suwinski or Billy Cook or Josh Palacios most likely, and now you’re at 2.

Have to have a backup catcher, so you’re looking at Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez or Jason Delay which leaves you with 1 more spot and it better be someone who can do a bunch of stuff, which leads me to believe Jared Triolo will get the nod.

There’s a very easy path to having one “prospect/young guy” break camp. Think about it. If Yorke doesn’t beat out Gonzales and the team decided they’d rather not have Cook sitting around we could see almost all the youth start in AAA. That’s fine if you think you have all the spots filled well, but that’s not really where we are.

A typical lineup of:
1 SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
2 LF Bryan Reyonlds
3 CF Oneil Cruz
4 RF Pham/Suwinski
5 C Joey Bart
6 2B Nick Gonzales
7 1B Spender Horwitz
8 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
9 DH Andrew McCutchen

This could be the baseline. The order isn’t all that important for this discussion.

Not on paper what I’d hoped, but RF remains the biggest hole you know is there.

Again, I think this could have been executed better, without even asking for much more money to be spent.

3. You Need More Than Number Ones

The Pirates haven’t done a terribly good job translating top picks into promising baseball players through the years.

Frankly, what happened before Ben Cherington means zilch here for me. I’d like to see how much success they’ve had with the picks he has made. I can get on him for not developing Quinn Priester or Cole Tucker or whomever you like, but as it comes to holding a GM accountable, I’ll keep it to his picks, and what he and his team have done with them.

The 2020 Draft
This draft if you remember was during COVID, and was reduced to 5 rounds. For the Pirates that was 6 selections, one being a Comp pick at the end of the first round.

From this draft the Pirates have had Nick Gonzales (7th overall – 1st Round), Carmen Mlodzinski (31 overall – Comp Round), and Jared Jones (44 overall – 2nd Round) debut and contribute.
Now entering 2025 all 3 are likely to make the team, and all 3 are likely to get significant opportunity.

3 out of 6, one (Nick Garcia) moved for Connor Joe a couple years back, is a damn good outcome for a 5-6 round draft.

The 2021 Draft
This was a draft that Ben Cherington did well to sign guys in lower draft slots than many in the league felt wise, allowing them to ink several top ranked prospects from the clutches of going to college.

Henry Davis (1 overall – 1st Round) is the only member of this class to have debuted. Their second rounders Anthony Solometo (37 overall – 2nd round) and Lonnie White (64 overall – Comp Round) are in some degree of struggle. White hasn’t progressed due to injury largely and Solometo has had some tinkering issues, but he was a known project when selected.

They also picked up Bubba Chandler (72 overall – 3rd Round) and he is an MLB Top 100 prospect and very likely to make the club during 2025.

There are some other interesting prospects, some you could even see this year, but none I’d bother examining here.

The 2022 Draft
Nobody from this draft should be expected to be here yet, but they have one or two who could push.

Termarr Johnson (4 overall – 1st Round), Thomas Harrington (36 overall – Comp Round), Hunter Barco (44 overall – 2nd Round), Jack Brannigan (83 overall – 3rd round) could all be here as early as late this year and they should all be pushing heading into 2026.

This has a chance to be a very special class.

I should also add Michael Kennedy (110 overall – 4th Round) was dealt in part of the package for Spencer Horwitz.

There are others, but you’re lucky beyond the 4th round.

The 2023 Draft
It’s insane we have someone from this draft, not only the here, but the Rookie of the Year who started the All Star Game. Don’t hold all these kids to that standard.

Paul Skenes (1 overall – 1st Round) of course. Mitch Jebb (42 overall – 2nd Round), Zander Mueth (67 overall – Comp Round), Garret Forrester (73 overall – 3rd Round) dealt to Miami in part for Brian De La Cruz, and again, there are others, but it’s just too early to talk to.

Solid chance Mueth adds his name to the Top 100 conversation in the coming years.

I’m not even going to touch 2024, as interesting as Konnor Griffin looks, he’s years away and so is everyone else.

We’ve had 2 drafts where you should realistically expect to see talent reaching the majors and we’ve seen 5 guys debut from 3 of them to varying degrees of good.

Ideally, you start seeing more of these 5th rounders or 12th rounders spark to life and become contributors.

Yeah, step one is getting your top picks to land, but low spending teams who are actually good at this, well, they manage to land many of those and get help from later rounds that at the very least turn into tradable assets.

4. Give Me a Reason for Optimism

I get asked this question all the time. I specialize in telling you the up and the down, the left and the right of a given situation, and I suppose the outlook on the 2025 upcoming season should be no different.

I’ve spent plenty of time telling you what I’m worried about, or don’t like, probably not as much about what I am genuinely excited about.

So here goes.

  • Depth – They may not have a lot of locked down positions, but unlike most other seasons along this journey, they have 2 or 3 guys backing up positions all over the field that have at the very least interesting players being held back. This isn’t like the days when Michael Chavis was starting and maybe blocking Mason Martin if you wanted to be creative.
  • Pitching Staff and Coaching – Oscar Marin has already done a pretty good job with his staff, but adding Brent Strom adds another layer of developmental excellence. On top of that, they truly have top flight talent on the mound. Hard throwers with a ton of spin and diverse pitch mixes with ability to add to their repertoire. Regardless of what’s happened offensively this offseason, this unit has the potential to average holding opponents under 3 runs per game.
  • Next Steps – Second and third year MLB players aren’t always a positive, but they almost always move in one direction or the other. This will be the second or third year for a host of players this year. An opportunity for a big step or step back, but either way, answers. You can’t move on or settle in until you get them, and we’re on the cusp of some of that. This is how doors get opened up for other youngsters.

That’s what I got. It isn’t much. I don’t see a conceivable way this team as a whole takes a step back in 2025, but how much ground they gain will be tied to these three bullets.

5. What Does the Last Straw for Shelton Look Like?

I have to believe a losing record this year ends his tenure in Pittsburgh but there are other things to look for too.

Allowing loyalty to dictate who does what and when in the lineup or bullpen will likely lead to his dismissal after the season.

Ignoring suddenly vocal about normalizing a lineup wishes from key players could lead to a fracture in his biggest area of support, the room.

Stubbornly marrying platoons and completely ignoring streaks or solid efforts day to day. I believe this was directly mentioned by the GM following the season that they needed to start finding different answers for why players play and when.

Watching his team make fundamental errors at the plate, basepaths or field and not coaching his players into making fewer unforced errors. Throw to the right base, hit the ball to the correct side, get a ball in the air if you have a duck on the pond, you know, fundamental baseball. Something this team has done poorly since Joey Cora left taking with him the defensive numbers that stunned many of us back in 2020 for being so damn good.

I believe he also needs to stop entering game 3 of a series tied 1-1 and still fielding a Sunday lineup. This team needs to win series, right now, not save juice for later. Same goes for if they have a sweep on the table, go get the sweep, don’t just be satisfied with winning the series. Win what you can as it comes, if it leaves your guys dead on their feet come August, well, at least maybe it’ll matter they got tired. Coach these games as he has, you’ll have the most rested team in the league that is guaranteed to start vacation in a month.

Lastly, it’s his career, he needs to own it. Stop accepting what the GM gives you, and start demanding what he gives you. Within reason. Meaning, say it’s May, you’ve given Adam Frazier 95 at bats and he’s hitting like .187. Don’t just accept you have to deal with it, go tell the sumbitch to get Yorke or Cook up here. Enough. And if you can’t do that because you’d get fired, well, honestly buddy you aren’t going to win here anyway or last, so you might as well demand what you need. At least you can say you did.

At Hor-witz End: Why Spencer Horwitz Might Be The Pirates MVP in 2025

2-7-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

It’s been a fairly tepid off-season for the Pirates. After spending $33.2M on free agents last year and entering the season pledging that the goal was to win the division, they limped down the stretch en route to another 5th place finish.

This off-season, they have been less aspirational with acquisitions – mostly limited to resigning Andrew McCutchen to his usual rate, inking some relievers to supplement the pen and this past week’s “big splash” signing of Tommy Pham.

The only notable move they made since the season ended was trading RHP Luis Ortiz with southpaw pitching prospects Michael Kennedy and Josh Hartle to the Cleveland Guardians for Spencer Horwitz. And while fans at the time had mixed feelings about trading two of the team’s top 30 prospects as well as a starting pitcher coming off a year where he pitched career-high 135.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA, there is reason to think this could be a BIG win for the Pirates side.

For starters, the team traded from a position of depth in order to fill a clear need at the major league level. Kennedy and Hartle, while touted prospects, were far behind many other pitchers in the team’s depth chart and have a combined 132 minor league innings pitched – none above A+ ball.

Additionally, Ortiz’s breakout season paid dividends for the team in 2024 but was bolstered by strong batted ball luck (.243 BABIP) that likely regresses to the mean if he stayed in Pittsburgh for another season.

As for Horwitz, he will look to bring stability to a position which has been a black hole for the team the past five years.

What does he bring to the table?

MLB Hitters in 2024 with 11+% walk rate and under 18.5% K rate (minimum 350 plate appearances):BB%K%
Juan Soto18.116.7
Ha-seong Kim12.316.4
Freddie Freeman12.216.7
Isaac Paredes11.916.4
Mookie Betts11.811.0
Jurickson Profar11.415.4
Nolan Schanuel11.217.0
Ketel Marte11.118.4
Spencer Horwitz11.018.4

That’s a small sample size but still some elite company for Horwitz and is a positive for a team that posted the 5th highest strikeout rate last season with a 24.7% and only posted an 8% walk rate as a team – good for 13th lowest in MLB.

Horwitz’s profile doesn’t indicate a ton of power with a 5’10/190 frame but he hit 12 long balls last year in just 381 plate appearances – which would equal approximately 19 over a 600 plate appearance pace. And projections view him pretty favorably as he has the top wRC+ on the team per ZIPS.

If this comes to fruition, that would be the highest offensive production from the first base position since Josh Bell’s 2019 breakout year, when he slugged 33 homers and posted a 133 wRC+.

While his bat speed and average exit velocity numbers are not ideal, what Horwitz excels at is making contact consistently and limiting soft contact as his 2.7% poor/weak hit rate in 2024 was equal to that of sluggers Bryce Harper and Julio Rodriguez.

Now, that’s not to say Horwitz is on the level of either of those two but there is some serious potential in his bat if given the opportunity, and he shoved down the stretch last year as he slashed .299/.386/.494 over his final 101 plate appearances from August 30th through the end of the season.

https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1832579368905834972/video/1

Coming over to the Pirates, Horwitz will continue to work with Pittsburgh’s new hitting coach, Matt Hague, and have open range to take hold of the first base position – a place this team BADLY needs to produce offensively. If he can provide a 2-3 WAR season in 2025, that could be a monumental swing in the standings for the Buccos.

Projecting the Pirates is as Hard as Being a Fan

2-5-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s hard to project this team, just like being a Pirates fan is not for the faint of heart.

I heard this for the first time back in the 1980’s. I was playing Transformers at my friends house and his old man was watching the Pirates and… Boom Von Hayes hit a walk off homerun for the Phillies to beat the Bucs 8-7 securing the victory for Phil’s closer Kent Tekulve. Yeah that Kent Tekulve.

My buddy’s dad, an old Italian man who’d worked hard as a metal caster his entire life put his Stroh’s down on the side table and said “Boys, Being a Pirates fan ain’t for the faint of heart”.

I’m sure he didn’t invent the phrase, but to me, he might as well have, every time I hear it or think it I flash back to that much simpler time when all I knew was this was my baseball team, they wore black and gold, and not too long ago they were the best team in the world.

It’s been a long time since those simple times, and I’ve seen a lot change with the game, this franchise and fandom in general.

So have many of you. Maybe you stepped away for awhile after Bonds left for San Francisco. Maybe you hung on thinking maybe, just maybe Jeff King could fill his shoes. Some left and jumped back in when the Pirates young core augmented by a few key vets shot up the standings and into the Wild Card in 2013. I’m sure you stayed for a minute after that.

Maybe some of you are just here because Paul Skenes, or Oneil Cruz, or Bryan Reynolds came along and piqued your interest again. Even just for a couple summer nights out.

Hell, some are here just because Cutch is back. Period.

We aren’t all the same. That’s the point. But one thing is very true, if you’re under the age of 45, you’ve never seen your baseball team advance to the World Series, and far too few opportunities to dream it was a bounce or two away.

All of that withstanding, what happens on social media, it’s really more like me giving you a passionate review for Wicked. Based on a review I read from someone else mind you, as I’ve never seen the film and have no desire to do so. But, I now have a vehicle to complain about the movie existing, and if I so choose, to mercilessly make fun of anyone who disagrees.

I have no doubt there are passionately angry fans out there who gnash their teeth through 9 innings every night and then expel rage on the internet to vent in that mix too, but at this point, they’ve sent most of the people who just want to watch Cutch and pull for kids and ignore all the stuff they know is wrong in the back of their heads scurrying for the shadows.

This has turned the online fights from bad to worse. See now it’s disgruntled people, arguing with each other about either being mad at the right entity, or simply mad that someone isn’t mad enough.

It’s exhausting. Truly.

My problem is, as much as I hate the way MLB is administered, as much as I despise that my owner won’t risk a nickel to make a dollar, as frustrated as I am that our GM is almost just as risk adverse, I still love baseball, and I still love the Pirates.

I’m going to get mad at them.

I’m going to get too high on a player, and I’ll completely discount another player’s ability.

I’m going to stay up insanely late on a West Coast trip, 5 straight nights and drag my ass to work in the morning with a 48oz cup of coffee and a eye crusted over.

I’m going to write about them good or bad. I’m going to write about kids who are years away and guys who should be or could be traded.

I guess what I’m saying is, I’m not the faint of heart type. I’m betting if you’re still with me, neither are you.

So here’s the thing.

This is a very, very unfriendly team to projection

And I mean the professional projections like Fan Graphs or Steamer types. But I also mean you and me, or the guy grumbling on social media too.

And in many ways, they’re stuck with a lot of it for a minute. Some of it you can’t spend your way out of, like Cruz is a projection nightmare, but you aren’t going to spend him out of your plans, feel me?

Projections are based on past performance. When there is no past performance, say for a rookie, the best these systems can do is apply minor league stats to a formula. This formula accounts for harder competition, all sorts of factors.

We fans are doing this too. In our heads. We’re hoping for so and so to do such and such. You know, projecting what they’ll do.

All of these projection models also have a critical decision to make for hitters or pitchers. They have to decide how many at bats or innings a guy is going to go or get.

They do a pretty good job by in large, but if they grade you anywhere from 75-85 if they’re kind enough to even attempt predicting a win total, and your roster is largely young, or untested at the MLB level, solid chance they don’t really know what you are or where you’ll wind up. Essentially, they know you aren’t the best or the worst.

If you walk through this team’s roster, and the options they have who will ultimately start in AAA, you have very few projectable players there that you can expect any accuracy. Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar, Andrew McCutchen, Mitch Keller and even though it’s unfair to do so, Paul Skenes. Even Bednar tossed a major monkey wrench in the system with his disaster season and every year of Cutch could be the year he hits the wall.

Everyone else has something that makes it insanely hard.

Think about Jared Jones. Great number 2 right? I mean that’s what the fan in you says anyway. Now projection models see a player who had a great start, and meh finish. Steamer for instance projects Jared to go 10-10 (which makes me wonder if they choose W/L vs their team’s overall projection) with a 3.90 ERA. Hey, that’s fair, again, they’re basing that largely off what he did last year, padding in extra innings this time with 167. These numbers would actually be an improvement on what he did in his rookie season, 6-8, 4.16 ERA in 121 innings.

Again, a really solid rookie year. Probably not the numbers you had in your head though right? I mean your impression of him is from the first half, then he got injured and you excused everything else right?

Steamer can’t predict if Jared adds a pitch (psst… he is), they can’t predict how his body will adapt to continuing to stretch out, or how much more efficient he could be if he manages to fully implement said pitch.

Last season he surrendered 18 homeruns in 121.2 innings, this year Baseball Reference has him keeping all but 16 in the yard but somehow still only pitching 121 innings.

Explain that?

I could do this all day. How do you project Oneil Cruz? Was last year about recovery and rust? Will the position change help at the plate? Will he stick?

Name a player I’ve likely got a conversation just like this for you.

It’s why fans wanted them to go out and buy or trade for more projectable help.

Projections, much like the betting odds are right more than they’re wrong, especially when there’s a lot of data. When there isn’t, like I’ve just described for the Pirates, or the Reds for that matter, projecting outcomes is very challenging and more importantly, not gospel.

You’d obviously prefer to be projected to win 114 games, but that costs a lot more than anyone owning this team ever would spend, regardless of their last name.

And I didn’t even touch how you project a AAA player not on the 40-man with like 14 innings under his belt. Starting with when does he start?

They’ve got more than a few of those too.

They won’t all trend positive, but if enough of them do, well, you never know.

The projections are rightly middling. As should your expectations be.

Just remember, the very best thing that could happen for this club is for Ben Cherington to be right a lot more than he’s wrong.

We’ll See.

Why Not Alex Verdugo?

2-5-25 – By Josh Booth – @bridge2buctober on X

THE SET UP

From 2021 through 2024, there are 32 left-handed hitters to have 1,500 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

I think it’s fair to assume that getting 1,500 plate appearances in 4 years means you’re playing a reasonable amount to have started a large chunk of that.

If you look at OPS, you’ll have exactly who you think is in the top 10. Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, Jose Ramirez, Bryan Reynolds, Joc Pederson, and Christian Yelich. None of those should be a surprise to anyone reading this.

There are only 2 players at the bottom who are under a .700 OPS: Carlos Santana (.674) and Adam Frazier (.690). A former Bucco, who is known to hit LHP better, and a returning Pirate who many assume his best days are behind him.

But there’s one guy just under Francisco Lindor (.785) and right above Anthony Santander (.772): Alex Verdugo (.773). Verdugo has been linked to the Pirates this offseason and is one of the remaining free agent outfielders still available. I’ve seen a lot of comments lately that may be underestimating this player’s value and ability. So, let’s look at some of the numbers.

First off, Verdugo is not a power guy, yet he is sandwiched between two guys who have hit 69 (Lindor) and 91 (Santander) home runs against RHP in the last 4 years. Verdugo has 44, which is 24th on this list of 32 players. So, this would not be a move to get power in the lineup. That could have been a move to get Joc Pederson earlier this offseason, who has hit 4 less HR against RHP than Bryan Reynolds in 300 less ABs; 73. It also could have been Santander, who I mentioned before.

WHAT’S GOOD?

Doubles, on the other hand, is something Alex Verdugo excels at. Only Freddie Freeman (118) has more doubles than Verdugo’s 112.

Verdugo has the 4th most hits (444) on this list of 32, as well. He’s #6 on this list in batting average (.279).

But there are two numbers that really stick out to me, when I looked at this list.

Only 4 players on this list have struck out less than Verdugo (251): Jose Ramirez (228), Adam Frazier (207), Jeff McNeil (181), and the most obvious Luis Arraez (91).

The Pirates were 27th in MLB in strike outs last season. They’ve added Horwitz, who had an 18% K rate last year, and deemed Isiah Kiner-Falefa the starting shortstop, who had a 15.7% K rate last year. They also brought in Adam Frazier for a bench role, who had a career worse K rate last year of only 20.1%; a career 13.6% K rate.

Bringing in Verdugo, with his 15% K rate in 2024, would make sense if they’re trying to limit strike outs.
Verdugo has a 15.1% K rate for his career.

The other stat is something I may be reaching a bit for. Verdugo also ranked #1 of 32 in sacrifice flies with 21. So, with less than 2 outs and a runner on third, he’s scoring the runner. The reason I consider that reaching is because this is a counting stat. If he got more chances, it would make sense to have more accumulated. So, let’s look closer.

We are leaving the platoon conversation behind at this point. Let’s look overall.

WE HAVE A PROBLEM

How many times did the Pirates have a man on third with less than 2 outs and that man was stranded? Well, the Pirates had a 29th ranked .276 BA in this situation. With 285 chances, the Pirates struck out 65 times, a 22.8% K rate (19th). The league average was 20.6%. The ball in play % was 65.6% (27th) which was 4.7% below league average (70.3%). That is not a recipe for scoring runs.

How about Verdugo with less than 2 outs and a runner on 3rd base?

PABalls In Play (%)BASFK (%)BB (%)PitchesWhiffs
3330 (90.9%).33391 (3%)2 (6.1%)1098

Let’s bring the platoon conversation back. We’re looking at the Pirates LHB vs RHP and Verdugo against RHP. Same runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs.

STATPIRATES LHBVERDUGO
Plate Appearances8520
Batting Average (Rank).344 (12).462
Strike Out % (Rank)23.5% (20)0%
Sac Flies (Rank)11 (19)7
Ball-in-Play % (Rank)65.9% (20)100%

That’s not a typo. Against RHP, he put the ball in play all 20 PA with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. The only Pirates to do this last season were Ji Hwan Bae (4), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (3 with the Pirates), and Nick Yorke (2).

SO, WHAT?

The Pirates may not sign Alex Verdugo. The chance of them chasing after a guy and coming up short appears to be pretty good the past few years.

If they do, though, it may not be a bad move if the Pirates want to improve in some of the areas they struggled offensively.

This is not a bad target. I think you could put this guy in the lineup against RHP and, for example, Billy Cook against LHP. You could have a very valuable platoon option in right field. By the way, that is a good thing. Platoons done well are a positive for a team, not the opposite narrative that gets tossed around your local social media feed.

In my first post on this site last season, I said the following:

“When I go down a rabbit hole digging into the data, I want one of two things to happen from that information: It should either back me up or shut me up.”

I think there’s enough here to say it shut me up.

CONCLUSION

Alex Verdugo can be a quality signing for the 2025 Pirates, if they decide to get it done. I’m not saying he’s the key link to winning the division. We all know where we are in the offseason and what this team looks like with days away from pitchers and catchers reporting. I am, however, saying that he’s a good player who had a down 2024. Maybe the no beard look? Maybe an allergic reaction to his batting gloves? (not a joke) Maybe it was just as simple as the difficulty of playing in the Bronx; he certainly wouldn’t be the first or the last. But he’s a good player who has a good shot at a big bounce back season. The rest of his career shows he’s capable.

And most of all, he brings some abilities to the table that this team actually needs.

Think about it.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Great Scott

2-3-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

There is going to be actual Pirates baseball this month.

Man, that feels nice to say.

So let’s not waste time and jump right into it today…

1. The Case for Mike Burrows

There’s been a lot of supposing about the Pirates 5th starter. Mostly focused on the returning from injury Johan Oviedo or Rookie of the Year favorite Bubba Chandler. Those two certainly make sense, but the Pirates have other candidates such as Braxton Ashcraft and the one I’m going to talk about today, Mike Burrows.

Back in 2022, Burrows was the Pirates top starting pitching prospect, ranked even higher than Quinn Priester, but injury derailed him, twice. As a result, he’s never thrown more than 94.1 innings in a single season. But Mike isn’t a guy who should just get pushed to the bullpen without a second thought, what sets him apart is that Burrows is a pitcher as opposed to a thrower. He relies on command, rarely walks anyone, yet still gets his K’s.

There’s one reason above all that we (fans) aren’t buzzing about this kid and it’s the state of the rotation and the group of youngsters he’s swimming right next to.

Much like Ashcraft, he has an advantage in that he’s already on the 40-man roster, meaning the Pirates wouldn’t have to DFA someone else to give him a shot and the type of pitcher he is, he won’t require the warm up that many of the hard throwers will.

He’ll get a chance, and he might be a perfect slot filler should Johan Oviedo not be 100% by the time the team heads North. He could buy time for Johan and any of the other lesser polished options and potentially operate as a swing man to help them maintain the innings restrictions some of their starters will surely deal with. Oviedo will surely be held under 100-120 innings, and Ashcraft, or Bubba would likely be in the same zone. One way or another, Burrows could find his way into being the skeleton key that makes this staff work.

Following one of his very first healthy offseasons, I expect Mike to come out guns a blazin’ and I expect him to contribute meaningful innings for this club in 2025. Maybe even a the 5th starter.

2. Would the Pirates Allow Nick Yorke to Beat Out Nick Gonzales?

Let’s start here, neither of these players can just be sat on the bench in the Pirates Dugout, they both need to play. That leads me to believe one of these two will win second base, and the other will likely start in AAA.

Adam Fraizer wasn’t brought in here to start, or even play a lot, he was brought in here to be the guy on the bench instead of having a kid rot. I say that for those of you who will jump to thinking his signing is blocking one of these guys, he’s not. That doesn’t mean you have to like his signing, I sure don’t, but that’s the thinking, get a veteran to hit 200 times instead of asking a young player to sit there with a smile on their face while rust covers their bat.

Nick Gonzales had a fine year. Not so fine that he has an unrelenting grip on second base, but being a first round pick for this club, it should be enough that he’s a leader in the clubhouse for the gig. Especially as he enters his year 26 season, it’s imperative the Pirates and Nick see what he has.

After being dealt to the Pirates, Nick Yorke became one of the Pirates top offensive prospects close to MLB and he got a cup of coffee in 2024 to showcase himself a bit.

Yorke can play other positions, but he’s really best suited on the right side of the infield, at least based on what we’ve seen from him although the Pirates could elect to use him at one of the corner outfield spots as well.

Gonzales can play 3rd, SS and 2B, but he’s really best at 2B. Both have power, both changed their approach to make more contact and sacrificing some of that raw power. Neither walk enough, both have done good work to cut down on strikeouts.

It’s going to be hard to keep either of these players in AAA for long. Both have destroyed AAA while there, but playing every day may trump all that in the early going.

Just remember, it’s not “Oh my god you mean to tell me they think Adam Fraizer is better than….” it’s more like “We’re ok with Fraizer rotting on the bench, not one of these kids who need to be hitting and playing”

3. Rebounds

Pirates fans are rightly concerned that many of the same players who struggled in 2024 will now be asked to move this thing forward in 2025. This is something almost every team’s fans and I’m sure internal leadership deals with every season.

Certainly though, the Pirates have this almost everywhere you look in 2025, even with guys who performed well. You’ll have that with youth and on top of that, most free agents the Pirates sign bring the need for a rebound with them.

Think about it, it’s not a rebound we’re looking for from Paul Skenes, but we certainly need him to find ways to get outs with fewer pitches per batter. He must find ways to get a little deeper into contests as he himself has referenced utilizing the need to attack more to seek that early, weak contact.

And he was AWESOME in 2024. So of course there are questions everywhere else that you don’t have to strain your eyes to see.

Ke’Bryan Hayes needs to stay healthy, but he also needs to be more than a good defender if he is. Isiah Kiner-Falefa needs to handle the lion’s share of reps at SS, even as he’s been moved off the position just about everywhere else he’s been.

Nick Gonzales needs to own the position so many people have handed him and find a way to hold off the 30 options the Pirates have to take it from him. (I’m kidding, a little).

David Bednar needs to erase last year and be what he’s been.

The Pirates have an absolute ton of these types of candidates and it’s just as insane to assume none of them will achieve it as it is to assume all of them will. This is going to be a hard team to predict for this very reason. They might have 5 players I don’t believe have a wide range of things they could do, good or bad.

4. Middle of the Field

When you build a team with a definitive strength on the mound, it stands to reason you need a very strong defensive unit up the middle. These positions, short stop, second base and center field, are imperative parts of a pitching first operation.

So the Pirates have countered with Oneil Cruz in center, who I honestly think will do well out there, but he’s got all of a month of experience to prove it. Had they not moved him there, he’d be at short stop, where he was very much so part of the problem defensively.

Short stop is Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a sure gloved veteran who’s glove probably works better just about anywhere else. Backed by the glove only Alika Williams, Liover Peguero who has had issues defensively on the way here and isn’t a sure thing to make the club and your guess is as good as mine beyond that, maybe Nick Gonzales or Jared Triolo?

Second Base is everyone else. Gonzales, Valdez, Triolo, Bae (yeah he’s still here), Frazier, Yorke, Cook, honestly, I could keep going…

This all could add up to a strong defensive unit, but it’s anything but tightened up.

The Pirates have a lot more strikeout pitchers than they have ground ball pitchers, if they were built with 3-4 Charlie Morton’s entering a season with these questions up the middle, it would be even more hair on fire important.

That doesn’t make it irrelevant however, and IKF is a one year at best solution anyway. Answers need to start getting locked in here and unfortunately being sure isn’t going to be in the cards.

5. Great Scott

This is the first time I’ve written this weekly piece knowing it wouldn’t soon be met by a post on social media that started out “Gary Day!!!”. My friend Scott Nelson passed last week unexpectedly, leaving behind a loving family, a host of kids he coached into better players or bowlers and an avalanche of people he’d interacted with on social media not just expressing condolences to his family, but telling stories about something silly and nice he’d done for them.

Sometimes it was just sharing a picture from his high in the sky perch at work of his beloved PNC Park. Some of them were his admittedly insane “season of Cole Tucker” campaign where he tirelessly pushed for the young man to get a chance.

Social media is a lot of bad things. And Scott was none of them.

If you jumped online to bitch about your back hurting, there he was to sympathize and tell a joke. Frustrated by a move the Pirates made, yup, there was Scott with a joke, an example of something they’ve done that was even dumber but most of all, you left the conversation smiling.

He endlessly supported people he befriended online. Yeah, I had my Gary Day!!!, but Pirate Queen Banshee had his near constant petitioning for her to be named number one fan along with her husband. Saxboy Billy was new on the scene a year ago and while some of us were still standing back wondering what this was all about, Scott just walked up virtually and said, hey, that’s funny.

I was lucky enough to meet him at more than a few games over the years, and he spoke in person much the same as he did online. Something more of us should be able to say, but can’t.

When I say, I’ve never written without a Gary Day proclamation, I mean it. Because before I submitted my first test article, for my very first writing gig, I sent it to three people for their advice. Dejan Kovacevic, Mike DeCourcy and Scott Nelson. I thought sure the first two were going to rip it apart, and I knew Scott would be honest but not crush my ambition.

I know there are bots out there and what not, but there are real people behind those words on the screen. We’ve just lost one of the very best examples of how you can do nothing but be honest, kind and faithful and still be very well liked.

I’ll miss you Scott, you were one of the good ones.

Bucs Prospect Watch – Konnor Griffin

2-1-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates selected Konnor Griffin 9th overall in the first round of the 2024 MLB entry draft. A high school outfielder and short stop with some pitching chops too, Konnor is a highly talented player who probably could have just as easily been drafted as a pitcher if he so chose to pursue it.

He’s been invited to Spring Training as he was kind enough to announce on my show the Pirates Fan Forum a couple weeks back.

So as we get ready to watch our Buccos get back in the grass and under the sun in Bradenton, I thought it would be a good time to talk about Konnor a bit and prepare everyone for what to look for.

First things first, he’s only 18 years old, but he’s 6’4″, 215 pounds, has a cannon for an arm, runs like a deer and hits for hard contact first, rather than hunting homeruns with every cut.

He’s a natural outfielder and his projections suggest not only the ability to stick in center field, but likely the ability to be a plus defender out there.

That said, the Pirates, and scouts around the game think he could hang at short stop too. That’s not to say Konnor doesn’t share their belief, but just from talking to him, you got the impression it’s more work for him than playing outfield would be.

I completely understand trying him there. First, either position would be an organizational need, and second, if you have a guy with ability to do multiple things, it’s a good idea to explore those things before said player reaches the majors only to find their spot blocked sending everyone scrambling to find out what he can do.

He did get to play some FCL games last year after being drafted, but there isn’t much to be learned on my end from those 8 games, more of a getting to know you for both player and organization really.

This offseason Konnor worked on changing his swing, and facing more velocity as he prepares for his first full season of professional baseball.

The LSU commit told us that he realized things he got away with in high school probably wouldn’t be enough as he progressed through the system, so making some tweaks was really his idea more than the Pirates who offered him little more than a few tips on how to practice. Essentially telling the youngster that going 100% in the cage isn’t always as productive as 75%. The theory being when in games you’re automatically going to be amped.

Expect him to play SS more than OF this year, but don’t read a ton into how they split his time either as 2nd round (Comp pick) Wyatt Sanford, SS will also be in Bradenton and they’ll want to have both play together.

This Spring expect him to get into a game early and then be sent off to Pirates City to begin training in earnest after he’s absorbed all he can from the guys he’s looking forward to meeting in the Big League Club house.

His scouting grades are sick… Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 65 | Arm: 70 | Field: 60 | Overall: 60, often called the top high school talent available based on projectability, there’s really nothing left to do but develop him. He’s got a head start having a coach as a father, but he’s also got a bit of an advantage as it comes to his physical state. he could add more mass and has this offseason, but he’s not some twig they’ll be pushing to the weight room hoping to make their frame predictions look smart, he’s already done an awful lot of that work.

All high school selections are a risk, Konnor included, but some are more developed than others. I expect him to move through the lower levels and still be young for his level when he reaches AA Altoona.

The real story of Mr. Griffin starts being told this Spring, but like a book you buy for the beach, the cover sure looks interesting.

If you missed the full interview with Konnor, check it out, he and his father Kevin were very gracious with their time and it was really nice getting to know him a bit better.

2025 Player Profile – Johan Oviedo

2/1/25 – Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN/@LockedOnPirates

The 2025 campaign will see tons of returns for the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a slew of 40-man roster players returning from season-ending injuries last year, and one of the biggest returns come in Johan Oviedo.

Oviedo, 27 in March, is hopeful to return to the starting rotation this season after missing all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery, and its unfortunate that Oviedo didn’t get the opportunity to build on his 2023 season, a season which saw him toss 177.1 innings with a 4.31 ERA across 32 starts, having been the first time that Oviedo surpassed 100 innings and 20 starts in his career.

The right-hander even had a pretty good stint following his arrival to Pittsburgh via the Jose Quintana trade with St. Louis in 2022, posting a 3.23 ERA in seven starts with the Pirates.

Between the last time Oviedo threw a pitch on a big league mound and present day, the landscape of the starting rotation has drastically changed with the insertion of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and the potential emergences of Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows. Oviedo threw the second most innings for a Pirates pitcher in ’23, trailing just Mitch Keller, while Rich Hill, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras, who are all no longer with the club, threw 68 or more innings, so its safe to say the rotation is in a much better spot than when Oviedo was last seen.

So, what made Oviedo so successful as a starter for the Pirates prior to the injury? It is very hard not the start with his breaking pitches, which valued at +18 via StatCast two years ago, ranking in the 98th percentile. A ton of the value came from Oviedo’s curveball, which he threw 15-percent of the time alongside his primary fastball and slider, and the curveball surrendered just a .193 opponent’s batting average, while the slider saw a .210 opponent’s batting average, so Oviedo’s usage of his secondary pitches was a major bright spot.

His fastball did get beat up quite a bit though, allowing a .278 xBA and .477 slugging and being below average in ground ball rate at 40.7-percent(league average was 44.4-percent in 2023), so Oviedo will have a tall task to improve the numbers on his fastball to better compliment his strong secondary offerings.

Oviedo did grade out pretty fairly on his advanced statistics on StatCast rather well no, ranking highly in extension(93rd percentile), fastball velocity(80th percentile), barrel rate(54th percentile) and average exit velocity(58th percentile), so the numbers across the board suggest that Oviedo was just a flat out solid starter for Pittsburgh.

Now, the biggest question mark is what Oviedo looks like post-Tommy John, as many pitchers across baseball experience drops in production following the injury, an injury that has plagued many careers across MLB.

2023 was rather impressive because, going back to those 32 starts, Oviedo ranked top-10 in baseball in starts, so his durability was not much of a question then, but may be now, but if Oviedo can remain mostly healthy, he could add to a rotation that already appears to be the strength of this Pirates roster heading into 2025 as a back-end rotational piece.

Oviedo will have others gunning for positioning for the final rotation spot, but he does have a leg up against his competitors because of his 2022 and 2023 sample as a starter. If Oviedo can improve his strikeout-to-walk rate(1.90 in 2023) and make his fastball a more useful primary pitch, he should have zero issue finding work in the back-end of the rotation, and his return, or addition back into the fold rather, gives the Pirates a luxury many teams don’t have, which is depth in the starting rotation, and Oviedo’s presence could prove fruitful throughout the season when injuries, fatigue and other factors come into play.

Its safe to say the Pirates won the Jose Quintana/Chris Stratton trade with their division rivals, even with Quintana starting a playoff game for St. Louis and Malcom Nunez not having panned out just yet, if at all, but Oviedo has come out as the best long-term player of that group, and he has a chance to add to resume in 2025 as a starter, and maybe he’ll get into the millions in his ARB figure the next go round.

Welcome back Johan Oviedo.