Helter Skelter, Derek Shelton

1-31-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

‘Helter skelter,’ a phrase meaning “in undue haste, confusion, or disorder,” feels a fairly appropriate way to describe how this rebuild has unfolded. Messy trades, confusing signings and inability to properly develop impact bats within the system are just a few issues plaguing this squad.

And now, heading into Spring Training in just a few short weeks with a lot more questions than answers, the biggest one we ask this week: Is Derek Shelton the right man to lead the Pirates in 2025?

That’s the $100 Million dollar question as the organization heads into year 6 of the current rebuild, with multiple top names feeling the heat in their seat. 

And no one’s seat should feel hotter than Shelton, especially following the long overdue firing of his hitting coach, Andy Haines, among others on his staff after the 2024 season concluded.

Is too much weight placed on the team’s manager – their success or failures – unduly dropped at the feet of one man who neither holds a bat nor glove in the games?

The role of a manager in equates to slightly above a team cheerleader in today’s day and age. Sure, they write out lineups and make substitutions but with the universal Designated Hitter, the role of manager has significantly diminished. Is that how we feel, or should feel, about Shelton?

Shelton enters 2025, his 6th season as skipper of the Bucs, tied for 13th in franchise history for most victories with 294 but he also ranks 9th in most losses (414).

With a winning percentage of .415 over his first five years here in Pittsburgh, no one in the franchise history has come close to that level of ineffectiveness and was granted a 6th year on his contract.

So why Shelton?

Prior to joining the Bucs, Derek Shelton succeeded Hall of Famer Eddie Murray as hitting coach for Cleveland from 2005 until 2010 before following a long line of coaches in the Tampa Bay Rays pipeline, serving as their hitting coach from 2010 to 2016.

He then worked in the Toronto Blue Jays organization for a year before landing a Bench Coach role with the Minnesota Twins, the success of which he parlayed into his current gig sporting black and gold 162 games a year.

https://twitter.com/derekshelton/status/1202321471768584192?s=46&t=uS-wvKiQUPugLtQFzfMtqQ

We knew the first couple years of this rebuild were going to be rough. The growing pains of figuring out what talent is in the system and who can be either traded or integrated into this potential future success are filled with potholes and landmines.

And much of it falls on ownership or management but a fair bit of the brunt is bore by the coaching staff.

Rodolfo Castro’s cell phone incident?

Ke’Bryan Hayes missing first base on a home run? Or nonchalantly eating sunflower seeds mid-play?

These mental mistakes reflect directly back on the top guy in the dugout.

Fans also have gotten on Shelton for his apparent unwillingness to stand up for his players over the course of his Pirates tenure. Seeing Bryan Reynolds getting unusually animated after an outside called strike-3 while Shelton sits on the bench does not imbue much confidence in his leadership abilities – though, admittedly, this is not always the case.

A big takeaway is that the players seem to love him. He’ll get the occasional glove-covered expletive now and then when he takes out a pitcher earlier than both would prefer but his stewardship is on display for all to see.

And it will, deservedly so, be under the microscope heading into this season.

Sure, we can blame Ben Cherington or Bob Nutting – heck, if the offense improved even a little bit, it will be validation that Haines was never the right answer for this clubhouse – but wins and losses, for better or worse, fall squarely on the shoulders of one Derek Lee Shelton.

2025 Player Profile – Bailey Falter

1/29/25 – Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN/@LockedOnPirates

The starting rotation appears to be the biggest strength of the Pittsburgh Pirates roster after the 2024 season, with a large chunk of the rotation returning for 2025 outside of Luis Ortiz, who was traded to Cleveland in the Spencer Horwitz trade.

That includes left-hander Bailey Falter, who prior to the 2024 season was a popular castaway amongst the fanbase after a 2023 campaign that saw Falter post a 5.58 ERA in seven starts and 10 appearances after his arrival via the Rodolfo Castro trade with Philadelphia prior to the 2023 trade deadline, but Falter silenced some doubters after 2024.

With the arrivals of Jared Jones and Paul Skenes looming, Falter had to prove himself worthy of a rotation spot, and he did just that, posting a 4.43 ERA across 28 starts and 142.1 IP, becoming the Pirates go-to southpaw in the rotation, a spot that has been consistently sought by general manager since his tenure began with additions such as Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill.

Falter added much needed consistency as a left-hander, as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA in both April(2.89) and May(2.23), some of the best months of Falter’s career. Following those months though, Falter’s play took a considerable nose dive, as he failed to have a sub-4.00 ERA in any other month of the season.

Our own Michael Castrignano highlighted these struggles throughout his piece on Falter a few weeks ago, most importantly his low strikeout rate,

Did I say low strikeout rate? It’s actually understating it. No one who pitched as many innings as Falter did in 2024 had a lower strikeout rate than he did… And strikeouts aren’t everything if you can limit walks and keep the ball on the ground – except Falter does neither of those well.

Michael hit the nail right on the head here. Falter, for all the good he achieved in 2024, his advanced numbers suggested quite the lucky season for the southpaw.

Falter’s xERA(4.81), xBA(.267), average exit velocity(90.1), whiff rate(19.6) and strikeout rate(16.5), were all in the 20th percentile or lower last season via StatCast, while his -8 pitching value and -9 breaking pitch run value suggest even worse numbers. It doesn’t take a genius to know that Falter never has, nor will be ever be, a plus-strikeout pitcher, but even his ground-ball rate(37.5), which is normally his forte, came in the 21st percentile last year.

So, where does this leave Falter in the mix for 2025? Well, for starters, he is currently the only left-handed starter on the big league roster, although offseason addition Caleb Ferguson may get a look in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen, so that alone gives Falter an edge as most staff’s prefer at least one left-hander, and having one in PNC Park proves very fruitful to put the icing on the cake.

The rotation will include Falter, at least at the beginning of the season, alongside Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, and the jumble of pitchers that could take the fifth spot, more on that at a later date in a later piece, but treading lightly with Falter should be important, especially with youngsters like Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington all potentially gunning for the rotation in 2025.

That also doesn’t take Johan Oviedo’s return into account either, who had an impressive 2023 campaign before being sidelined with an injury for the entirety of last season. All of these factors are important for Falter, in due part because although his campaign was somewhat successful last year, a repeat may not be good enough to keep his spot in 2025.

Add in that Falter’s profile in the bullpen is dismal at best, and the plank becomes very much smaller for Falter, who will, and should, have a ton of pressure to produce in 2025.

The biggest goal for Falter should be performance at least somewhat comparable to his first two months that were mentioned earlier. Limiting walks played a massive role in that success, as Falter’s 13 free passes combined in April and May were just a fraction above his July and September totals of 10 and 13.

With the strikeout upside limited, Falter cannot afford to give up free bases, and with the fastball velocity not grand, but deceptive thanks to his impressive extension, there is a world where Falter plays good baseball, he just has to do it consistently, especially with the wolves ready to strike from AAA and returning players.

Expect a heavy dose of Falter in the early months, but after, his play will, and should, determine his fate, and with potentially better options available via the prospect pool, especially in a massive year for the organization, don’t be surprised if the leash is short for Falter in 2025.

Now, that doesn’t mean root against him, because he proved plenty of doubters wrong last year, its just a wonder if the advanced analytics allow him to do it for a second straight year.

Pirates Add Three Lefties, Two Pitchers and a Utility Player

1-28-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates signed three players yesterday and today. Two are left handed relievers, Ryan Borucki, Tim Mayza, and one is Adam Frazier.

I figured I’d gang them all into one piece frankly because none of the three alone are all that exciting. In fact, even ganging them together isn’t something fans are going to change their opinion of the team based on.

That said, these are all roles that it feels nice to have filled. None of these are difference makers, none of them at the salary they’ve agreed to are guaranteed anything, all of them add depth if not something the team straight lacked.

Tim Mayza – LRP – 1.15 Million MLB Deal

Tim Mayza had a terrible season in 2024. There, I said it right off the top because when a guy is signed, fans rush to the Baseball Reference page and see what the team got and what they saw kinda depends on how hard you wanted to look.

His career numbers are really good. 3.88 ERA in a little over 300 innings along with 304 K’s and only 99 walks. He’s had a pretty good career.

Largely fueled by his killer sinker, a plus pitch that he builds everything he does with.

Then 2024 hit, and he lost velocity on the pitch, a little, but it was enough to change everything about it and he suffered in Toronto because of it to the tune of an 8.03 ERA in 35 outings. The Yankees gave him a go too and he rebounded a bit to a 4.00 ERA in 15 outings.

Solid shot at a nice lefty reliever, and being good has been his norm, so there’s a very good chance he snaps back.

Ryan Borucki – LRP – 1.15 Million MiLB Deal

You should be familiar with Ryan, he pitched here in 2023 after being claimed on Waivers and became so relied upon he was serving as the left handed back end option in the bullpen. 38 outings with the Bucs and he turned in a 2.45 ERA and an incredible 0.744 WHIP.

In 2024 the Pirates brought him back and he spent the vast majority of the season injured. Even when he came back late in the year, he just wasn’t right. 14 games, 7.36 ERA, but it’s so driven by what he went through all year, it’s very hard to pinpoint what happened aside from being rusty and hurt most of the year.

So, bringing him back on an MiLB deal is a fine addition to the depth of this team. If he makes the team out of camp, great, if he doesn’t, hey, they have an experienced lefty in the minors hopefully improving and performing that they can call on.

Again, not a major deal, but a smart one.

Adam Frazier – UTL – 1.525 Million MLB Deal

Adam has had a fine career for someone who doesn’t really have a whole lot of “special” in his game.

Meaning, he’s not a like super fast, not a great defender, nothing special about his arm. Contact tool is above average, but that’s about it. He’s a solid MLB player, but especially now, a bench player.

Last year with Kansas City, Frazier had easily his worst season in the Bigs. In only 294 plate appearances he only hit .202 with an abysmal OPS of .576.

That’s not been his history, but the signs of slowing down are there and have been really since 2022.

The money is nothing. So long as they treat it as such. If he looks bad in Spring and they keep him anyway, even at this paltry sum, you’ll have reason to be irritated. If he does well in Spring, I still think he fills a niche of a niche.

Spencer Horwitz is the only left handed stick they have for the infield, unless you’d like to count Ji Hwan Bae. So I can see that being a role you might like filled on the bench, but I still think you probably have 2 or 3 players who even being right handed you’d rather see them play.

Truthfully, if it were easier to trust this organization that this is depth and little more. Someone they’d cut loose if it didn’t work out quickly, you could probably just shrug it off.

The only other aspect of this that makes sense to me, is if the club has legitimate concern, as they probably should that Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t going to be healthy all season. That would cause Jared Triolo to have to take over 3B and then they’d not have a backup 2B with experience.

Even that is a bit of a stretch because it would be fairly easy to argue Nick Yorke would be a better fit.

The club has very little veteran presence on the roster, so I don’t hate bringing some of that in here, but in this case, it’s veteran presence that for the most part was here helping to build the room they currently have. A guy like this, with the limited role he’ll likely have isn’t coming in here and commanding the room.

We’ll see how it plays out, but as it sits, this is a bit confusing.

And I highly doubt this signals any incoming trade. Signing anyone for 1.5 something something million isn’t prompting anything like that.

2025 Player Profile: Mitch Keller

1/28/25 – Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN / @LockedOnPirates

Mitch Keller has been a staple in the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation since his debut season in 2019, and be it for better or for worse, Keller has overcome numerous obstacles to place himself in the position he is in today.

Prior to the 2022 season, Keller was one of the worst pitchers in MLB, but since then, Keller has become the workhorse of the Pirates starting pitching staff, earning Opening Day starter honors in back-to-back seasons, the first time a Pirates starter earned such honors since Francisco Liriano started three consecutive Opening Day’s from 2014-2016, and even a lengthy contract to keep Keller tied to the Pirates until 2029.

For better or for worse is tried and true when it comes to Mitch Keller’s career arc, and when focusing on 2024, the same can be said, as last season was an up-and-down campaign for Keller, who was coming off an All-Star appearance in 2023.

Keller tossed 178 innings in 2024, tallying a 4.25 ERA with 166 strikeouts in what was Keller’s second highest workload season of his career, taking a short step down from the 194.1 innings he threw in 2023.

Prior to August 3, Keller had been dominant, posting a 10-5 record with a 3.20 ERA, seeming to fully cement himself as a top of the rotation starter in this league and becoming more than worthy of his contract extension. Trouble came for Keller though in his final nine starts, as he went 1-8 and allowed 37 earned runs in just under 46 innings, which led some to point to a trend over the past two seasons, where Keller’s second halves was not nearly as impressive as his first halves, seeing his ERA inflate in 2023 and 2024 after the first half concluded.

So, heading into 2025, how does Keller avoid these late season slumps?

For starters, maintaining his fastball velocity throughout the entirety of the campaign has to be at the top of the list for Keller. Take a shaky start last season versus the Reds on September 20 for instance, a start that saw Keller’s fastball clock in at 92 mph on average, which was his lowest total in a start in nearly three seasons to that point.

You could find plenty of other instances where Keller’s velocity dropped, and his ERA suffers from it considerably. Keep in mind that Keller does have three fastball offerings, a fastball, a sinker and a cutter, which is used in limited spurts, so Keller has the offerings to keep hitters off balance, considering his sweeper has become a strong strikeout pitch, but the velocity has to stay consistent for those pitches to work in tandem together, and across the past two seasons, that just hasn’t happened.

Another concern was the walk rate for Keller post-All-Star break, as prior to the MidSummer Classic, Keller had walked only 30 batters across 114.1 innings. After though, Keller allowed 20 free passes in 63.2 innings, a much worse walk rate. Keller still ranked highly in walk rate, ranking in the 73rd percentile on StatCast(6.5-percent), but limiting walks late in the season should be another major point of emphasis for Keller as well.

Sticking with StatCast for a moment, another metric to highlight is Keller’s whiff rate. Keller definitely forces his way to a ton of strikeouts, having 210 and 166 over the past two seasons, but Keller ranked in the 30th percentile and lower as far as whiff rate is concerned, and although his chase rate increased from the 26th percentile to the 47th percentile from 2023 to 2024, its an indicator that Keller has to miss more bats and induce swings out of the zone.

This all sounds bad for Keller, it does, but Keller has shown and proven his worth as a top-end starter, he just has to find a way to do so over the entirety of a campaign, something he has been unable to truly do over the course of his career.

Keller will enter 2025 as apart of a top trio that will also feature Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, and with Keller being the most established of that group, his expectations heading into 2025 should be lofty, especially with the money the club has tied into him.

If Keller can maintain his strong velocity over the course of the season and utilize his sweeper and all of his fastball offerings at a plus-level, 2025 should be another solid year for Keller, but there is legitimate concern with how the second half could go based off the sample we’ve seen over the past two second halves.

Nevetheless, Keller will once again be fully cemented into the starting rotation, a group that has warranted upside, and Keller has proven he can play at an All-Star level before, so can he do it again in 2025? If he can, the Pirates may have one of the better pitching trios in baseball, and they’ll surely reap the benefits if that turns out to be true.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – The Truth Shall Set You Free?

1-27-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Welcome to another all new Five Pirates Thoughts here at Steel City Pirates. The offseason is coming to a close and Spring Training is on the horizon. Ready or not Ben, here it comes.

It’s been a contentious offseason between fans and the team. Even as we celebrated the Rookie of the Year and undeniable phenom Paul Skenes, fans have seen it more as a reason the team should act differently, they clearly see it as more of a result of doing what they’ve done that he’s here at all.

No matter what we or they think, the fact is the time for the rubber to hit the road is nearly upon us.

Lets Go…

1. Just Be Brutally Honest

I’m a big believer in telling the truth, even when it’s hard, even when it’s unpopular.

I’m starting to wonder if the Pirates would do better with fans if they just stopped trying to pretend they were anything they aren’t.

Imagine for a minute, I’m Ben Cherington……

OK, I just cleaned a bunch of egg off my screen, can we move on?

I mean, the truth is, people are just going to be mad until or if they win, but a decent percentage of you like to tell me that if they just told the truth, you could accept it. Let me show you what I mean.

Ben, why haven’t the Pirates signed any multi-year free agents? Simple, Jim Bob, We don’t want locked into anyone if we can avoid it, and for the most part, we can always avoid it. I’d rather get 2 WAR total from 3 guys who cost me 750K each than 2 WAR from a guy I paid 15 million over 2 years. If I’m doing multi-year deals, it’s almost always going to be an extension, they’re cheaper and we REALLY know these guys far better than any free agent.

Why don’t the Pirates have urgency to add to a roster with Paul Skenes on it? First, I did add to the roster, you just don’t think it’s enough. I have a 100 Million dollar budget, bottom line, that’s one more bigger named free agent, maybe, or room to add at the deadline, maybe. I’d also add, we never make major long reaching roster decisions based on one player.

See where I’m going? These statements are blunt and very likely the truth of the situation. They don’t fill you with hope, they instead essentially tell you to stop dreaming.

I could do this all day. Because really, we all know the truth, we just get tired of the sanitized, flowery and serpentine groups of gobbledygook we get. I mean, would you rather be flatly told it’s a stretch to think they’ll resign Paul Skenes or told that somehow winning more will have him tripping over his tongue trying to find a way to sign for half his market value some day?

2. Spencer for Hire

Spencer Horwitz has done one thing wrong, he was acquired by a team who’s fans don’t trust the front office to do a damn thing right.

Other than that, he’s a very promising player.

I mean, I kid, but only a little.

The Pirates back in 1998 traded Ricardo Rincon to Cleveland for a young power hitter named Brian Giles. He had some proven MLB power, too many strikeouts, walked a good bit but more than anything, just wasn’t getting the opportunity with the Indians. So the Pirates took the 29 year old late bloomer off their hands and turned him into one of the more productive players the Pirates have had this century.

I’m not here to tell you Spencer Horwitz is going to turn into Brian Giles, I’m here to tell you he has a lot of the same things in his profile.

27 years old, largely blocked, some proven MLB pop.

Personally, I didn’t know who Giles was. I didn’t even remember who they traded for him until I looked it up writing this piece. You can fish in ponds like this, and every once in a while, you get to be the one who catches the Musky someone stocked it with.

The Pirates acquired Giles with every intension of being the team that did give him a chance to play every day, and while it’s not the first baseman many of you wanted, or identified, Spencer sure could be the right guy too.

This is the type of acquisition I’d have preferred to see them make in say 2021 or 2022, when they had time to explore and experiment, but to act like this is a terrible acquisition even as we sit in 2025 is to ignore an awful lot about Horwitz.

The scariest thing about this deal is the lack of a safety net at first base if he doesn’t perform.

I know, I know, you hope you’re wrong…. Look, that’s ok, but in the process, you’re railing on the guy like they’ve left first base for dead. They don’t feel they have.

I’m not sold on the guy, but there is enough evidence there to safely assume league average as a floor. For a guy with 425 total MLB at bats, solid chance that’s not where he’ll stay. Worthy shot here at a player if you ask me, but nobody should be sure what he is in any conceivable direction.

As plainly as I can put it, if you were truly ok with entering 2025 with Endy Rodriguez as the presumptive starting first baseman and have an issue with Horwitz being added, you need to get your head out of your can.

3. New Year, New David Bednar?

Man, if you ran into David at Pirates Fest, you saw right away, this is a guy who took the offseason to button himself up. He looks trim, he looks determined and he’s saying all the right things.

“I’ve never been more ready to go, dialed in and hungry to get back to who I know I am,” – David Bednar

What happens on the field is what matters, but I’m confident you won’t feel the too many IC Lights joke will play this Spring. He’s ready.

That doesn’t mean the rest of the bullpen is of course, but the Pirates lost a lot of games on blown saves last year, 7 just from David. That’s both uncharacteristic and unsustainable for a team that is going to have to scratch and claw for every win.

Colin Holderman had 5 blown saves. Aroldis Chapman added 5 more.

Look, that’s 17 blown saves from your top 3 closer options, 2 of which are returning for 2025.

Close out 10 more of those games and the Pirates finish with 86 wins.

It’s that important.

It’s also why, while completely understanding the thought that David will rebound, the Pirates would do well to add another back end experienced guy. There aren’t many left, but as bad as the offense was last year, this issue is fixable, or at least you can make it a hell of a lot better which in turn would make the team a hell of a lot better.

All that said, and circling back to David himself, this is a very proud Pittsburgh native. He and his pride took a hit last year and I get the impression he’s doing everything he can this offseason to make sure 2025 isn’t a repeat. Want to alone won’t get this done, of course, but this also isn’t a guy who’s failed 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Better, might be enough. Back to All Star caliber, well that might be more than enough.

4. Dismiss Nick Yorke? Not I

Nick Yorke is still considered a prospect, in fact, according to Keith Law at the Athletic, he’s the 50th best prospect in baseball this year.

https://twitter.com/AustinOravec/status/1883936533100781747

Cherington has gotten a lot of flack for his deadline deals last year, none more so than Bryan De La Cruz, but he also brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa who regardless of where he is best used allowed Oneil Cruz to move to CF, Billy Cook who has some of his own national praise points and Nick Yorke who gives the Pirates arguably their best bet at a bat before Termarr shows up.

Our guy Michael wrote up a nice piece about Nick himself earlier last week.

Very worth your attention if you haven’t already read it.

Some will see this as trying to make it ok that Ben hasn’t added anything huge this offseason, but I look at it more as being happy there are options like this close to the league. A win on a guy like this would really help sew up some holes.

5. Jared Jones Might Look Different…

I’m told that Jared Jones is working on adding his own version of “the Splinker” made famous by his fellow second year player and room mate Paul Skenes. He’s also working on his command of his fastball, something that he hopes will make his 4 seam as effective at 97 as it is when he hits 101.

What Jared did in 2024 was remarkable, and he’s planning to take arguably the same size jump in this offseason. That’s a lot to ask, but Jared’s season started with a rookie of the year pace and finished with an emptying of the tank performance that quite simply hadn’t been there since sometime in June.

Yeah, he had the LAT injury, but what really happened was as he stretched out he lost velocity. When he lost velocity, he became easier to hit. Not easy to hit, but specifically easier. That’s why he desperately needs another pitch. It doesn’t have to be the splinker, hell it doesn’t even have to be just one.

He needs something to keep hitters off his heater and the Sweeper isn’t enough. He doesn’t suffer from Kyle Crick like command but he can’t paint corners all day with his slider either, so he needs it to get back to being a split decision, by keeping the velocity up, or he needs to add in another pitch that disrupts timing.

He’ll be counted on this year, but it doesn’t take long to look around the league and find guys who had a promising rookie year only to never recapture it.

What sets Jared apart is the way he works in the offseason, and unlike last year, this time he has a full season of seeing what gets guys out before he gets back to work on what that arsenal might look like.

I have full confidence he’ll be in the rotation again, but look at what’s coming and coming back, nobody has room to slip, including Jared.

Pirates Dead End Conversations

1-24-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s been hard to write a lot lately.

It always is when the masses have been lead to a virtual cul-de-sac of discussion. Meaning you can start to discuss anything you like, but at some point, you’re going to reach the dead end that causes you to turn around and head right back out.

Good luck talking about anything, unless it’s your own personal spin on how terrible they are. If you’ve found a new way to call Bob names or insult Ben Cherington’s intelligence, you got a shot at a nice piece. People will love it.

None who actually read it mind you, just make sure the headline is the damn point, cause that’s all you’ll get.

That’s not who I write for. I write for readers. You. So…

Today, let’s talk about all the dead ends in conversation about this team and see if we can’t find a way to talk about them anyway, regardless of who thinks it’s dumb to do so.

The team can’t win with this owner

Easily the most common here in Pittsburgh. This one makes you feel like you were dumb to even pull into the neighborhood. I mean, what could you possibly talk about after this becomes the top of your pyramid? Sure, it could be right, but if you KNOW it is, and won’t hear anything but, what are you doing here? The truth is, Bob doesn’t know very much about baseball. Oh, he knows it like a normal fan who goes to a bunch of games, but he doesn’t get into or insert himself in the nitty gritty of scouting or development.

He’s largely at the mercy of who he hires, and frankly, he hasn’t done that all that well either. He also has to know he doesn’t make it an easy job. Knowing that, he has more patience than he probably should. It worked with Huntington, may or may not work with Cherington, but the alternative looks like the Cleveland Browns, constantly churning through coaches, GMs, and the like, never letting things play out, a constant state of reset.

It’s frustrating to watch, but it’s also worked for him once and I’m quite sure he thinks it will again. As I’ve said before, the arrow is still pointed upward, it just isn’t a hockey stick progression.

I’m also of the belief, the only owners spending their own money, won’t do it forever. In San Diego, the daughter of their dearly departed owner is being sued by her family to lower payroll because as a business, it’s not working as well as they, also being shareholders, want it to. Steve Cohen in New York is tapping into his own wallet, but that too won’t go on forever, especially if it doesn’t bear fruit. A new owner in this market would likely provide very little different in spending. It could still be a smarter business man who lifts their ability. It could be a person who hires better, holds people to account with greater efficiency. But most of our complaints would remain the same.

Yeah, the owner is a problem, but the league is by far a bigger issue. You might find a cream that helps this rash, but it’ll always come back unless they cure the disease.

This team can’t develop

Yup. And there is no fixing it forever and ever. Changes to the staff, who cares. Evidence of others who developed just fine, well those guys must have gotten help elsewhere. This one is usually used for showing one’s stupidity for being excited about a prospect or young player, or to emphasize why trading any or all of them for established MLB players is the only way around it. God I hope some of you can read sarcasm.

In Marketing, there is a long standing difficulty in gauging the effectiveness of advertising campaigns. It’s often hard to tie leads back to an ad campaign, so when it comes time to justify the expense, the best you can do is kinda point to some metrics for how many eyes the publication claims landed on your ad via circulation. Maybe you have some click through data as well, but no matter what, it’s vague and your “proof” of return on investment is at least half based on faith that it lead to some of your leads.

Development isn’t much different. Take Nick Gonzales for instance, here’s a guy who got hurt a couple times in the minors, missed all of 2020 due to COVID, and showed his greatest improvement in the offseason following 2023. So who gets credit? Nick? He worked his ass off, so of course he gets some credit. Andy Haines? Well, he’s the one who gave Nick the plan heading into the offseason for what to work on. His independent trainers? Maybe, but they checked in with Haines and the team all along the journey and again, were working on Haines’ priorities.

Bottom line, ALL of that is part of the development system. All of those entities probably deserve a little of the credit.

Do they get any credit for Paul Skenes? Probably not. He’s a phenom and he didn’t need much help. The team had to hold him back a bit physically. And worked with him to develop what that roadmap looked like, but most fans aren’t giving the Pirates any credit for him. Maybe they shouldn’t. But maybe they shouldn’t for a guy who toils for 5 years and then something clicks and they make a push like Hunter Stratton.

Development and the ability to do so is an amoeba. You have to have it, and maybe the best way to look at it is like the Doctor’s creed, first, do no harm.

No team can claim 100% success, that’s just not realistic. But no team simply “can’t” either.

This GM has no urgency

The team is always and perpetually showing you they have no urgency about anything, ever. They aren’t one of the 4 MLB teams to have not spent a dollar on free agency this offseason, but they might as well be. The supposition here is that he either has no pressure applied to him, or, he’s just aloof, willing to accept table scraps.

The Devil’s advocate position is simply put, he thinks he’s right. To be clear, that doesn’t have to be me agreeing, but to pretend he is actively not trying to win is to ignore reality. He’s just not trying to do it the way you, me or many other people think he should. To me you have some obvious holes to fill and you become much less of a question entering the season. To them, they have 2-3 guys they think 1 will emerge from all over the place.

Essentially, the plan and I should say, the Stated Plan, all along has been to grow this thing internally for the most part. So when you have your team that you’ve built right around that .500 mark and you feel you have even more of that developed youth coming along or on the cusp of grabbing a foot hold, it’s very hard to shift gears and push off those players for a veteran.

This is a Pittsburgh/Small Market issue, and while some other small markets don’t like to live that way, this one certainly does.

If say Suwinski and Horwitz emerge in 2024, they probably look really smart. If they wind up giving Joshua Palacios 500 at bats and he disappoints, well, they’ll look pretty dumb. It’s a risk, and when you get a player like Paul Skenes in the fold and likely know you only have a short time with him (yes because you can’t win with Bob) you absolutely should allow it to change your thinking.

It’s not looking like that’s where his head is.

I still would argue it’s not a lack of urgency, it’s really more a lack of sharing your vision of what urgency is. To them, Paul and Jones being here right now is urgency in and of itself.

This coaching simply can’t get the job done

As many of you know, I don’t disagree. To me, if you’re going to largely stick with everything depending on internal development and growth, and you clearly aren’t seeing it come along as quickly as you’d like and refuse to bolt on veterans to give them more time, it stands to reason you should change those administering the coaching.

They don’t agree. Yet.

I take this a couple ways. First, I think it’s an admission of sorts that they haven’t given Derek Shelton good enough players to win. If you really want to be hard nosed on this, you can certainly say before 2024 he absolutely should not have been expected to work miracles. So it stands to reason, the GM responsible for the talent he had to work with is obviously going to be understanding.

That said, you’d like to think he does more with less somewhere along the line right? If you want an argument for Shelton, and something tells me most of you don’t, it’s probably that he managed a 2023 team that lost Oneil Cruz, had one established starting pitcher to a 76 win season. Conversely, he had a lot more to work with in 2024 and produced the same record.

So I look at Shelton as 1-1. He overachieved in 2023, and under achieved in 2024. I can make an argument for giving him another season, but if I have to work that hard to do it, I probably wouldn’t.

That said, it’s at least an open question, regardless of my beliefs, or yours for that matter.

The Fans Deserve Better

Man, you hear this all across sports. Even the Steelers base has been crowing about this one and while they haven’t won in the playoffs, they still get there regularly.

Everything is about scale.

Do fans deserve better? I don’t know. I mean, I’m a fan, I feel like I deserve a payoff for being a fan for 40 some years, so I’d like to think so. That said, most of the more vocal fans openly suggest you shouldn’t spend a red cent on this team, so I’m not sure what they’ve done to deserve anything. Know what I mean?

I guess I feel every team in the league feels their fans deserve better. Even the Dodgers only have two World Series in recent history to show for being stacked for like forever.

What fans really deserve is a league that doesn’t allow a handful of teams to outspend 75% of the league and still out earn them by 2 or 3 times over. Fans deserve better. True.

They deserve a league where you don’t care who your owner is because it won’t effect much of anything as it comes to the budget. A league where running your team the wisest is more important than how big your cable package is.

That’s what fans deserve.

If you want to argue over whether Bob Nutting deserves to benefit from that change should it happen, I’ll have that discussion too, because he certainly doesn’t. Not that I’ll give two craps if it happens, I’ll just be eating up the possibilities of my ballclub that I haven’t witnessed since 1992. A team on an even playing surface.

If they fire Cherington we’ll be back in a rebuild

Nah.

Not really. If anything it’ll reset the clock a bit, and of course whomever they’d hire would want to put their stamp on things likely by making a decent sized move, but this farm system and MLB club are not in a place where even a GM change would send them into another tear down phase.

This is also your single best reason to be at least a little optimistic about this club. Even if you’re frustrated with Ben and don’t think he’s done a good enough job, he’s clearly done enough to have this club in augment territory as opposed to move out and replenish. They aren’t even into real money on arbitration yet for many of their core players.

In no way should this be seen the way 2019 was. Back then, we knew there was very little coming, we simply can’t say that today. Maybe not enough, but certainly more than enough to feel like tearing down would be foolish.

Make Or Break Time For Hank The Tank

1-24-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following a season where Paul Skenes took the league by storm en route to winning Rookie of the Year honors and cementing himself as the correct first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, it is easy to overlook the Pirates prior 1-1 pick in Henry Davis, especially as he has struggled with both injuries and offensive production in trying to break through with the big league club. 

A surprising first overall pick in the 2021 draft, selecting Davis allowed Ben Cherington and company to pull an under-slot signing at the top in order to save money for prep picks Lonnie White Jr., Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler in the later rounds.

Injuries plagued Davis in his ascent to the majors as he compiled just 421 at-bats over two years before making his MLB debut in June 2023, dealing with wrist issues suffered from multiple hit by pitch incidents in that stretch.

Unfortunately, when he finally made it to the show, he struggled both at the dish and in the field.

At the time, the Pirates had Austin Hedges as their primary catcher, a serviceable backup in Jason Delay and a surging prospect in Endy Rodriguez. The crowded crew coupled with Davis’s shortcomings behind the plate led to an alternative solution as they elected to slot him in right field, a position he had only played 15 times previously in the minor leagues – and it showed.

Davis committed 4 errors in right field over 417 innings played in 2023 before the team finally appeared to pull the plug on the Jason Kendall Experience 2.0. 

Heading into 2024 with Endy on the shelf for the season after undergoing UCL surgery, Davis appeared to be the shoe-in for starting catcher. 

He helped make his case with a strong showing in Spring Training, clubbing 4 home runs over 42 at-bats while slashing .310/.400/.667 in that stretch.

However, that success didn’t translate into the regular season as Davis batted just .162, struck out at a 35% clip with just 3 extra base hits (all doubles) over his first 83 plate appearances before being optioned to the minors on May 3rd.

Despite a paltry .191 batting average and .590 OPS over 329 MLB at-bats, Davis has shoved consistently throughout the minors and slashed .307/.401/.555 in 254 plate appearances with the Indianapolis Indians in 2024 following that demotion.

He has been stymied by injuries, learning new position and trying to find his role as a leader on a still evolving team but the grit is there and, given ample reps, there’s reason to think he will figure things out.

For starters, it’s clear that he has been dealing with injuries over the past few seasons and tries to battle through them. He can be a bit stubborn in the box, leading to an exorbitant amount of HBPs (44 over his first 1,145 professional plate appearances) and resulting in needless IL stints.

With Joey Bart, Endy and Delay in the fold, he won’t have as much pressure to stay on the field – especially when his performance clearly dips. 

Also, he has to focus on staying more productive with the bat and not get hung up on what number is next to his name on the lineup card. 

We say this quite a bit at this site but if he can hit, the team will find somewhere to play him. If it’s behind the dish, in the outfield, on the dirt or just at DH, if you can provide value to this club, they’ll find you a spot. 

Finally – and this is a bit of a scapegoat – he won’t have to deal with Andy Haines as his hitting coach with the Pirates anymore. Will this make the difference if/when Davis returns to the big league club? Are fans right in thinking that Haines was actively hampering the development of young hitters on this squad?

We’ll just have to wait and see.

2025 Player Profile: Jared Jones

By Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN / @LockedOnPirates

“The rest is still unwritten.”

To some, that is a popular verse from the 2004 hit single “Unwritten” by Natasha Bedingfield.

For Jared Jones, it was his walk-up music prior to each of his starts during the 2024 season, as well as a moniker for whats to come for the future of his career.

Jones became lost in the shuffle a bit after Paul Skenes debuted last season, seeing as Skenes became worthy of the generational tag rather quickly, but there is plenty to be said about what Jones was able to accomplish in 2024.

Jones, like many, began his journey in 2024 in Bradenton at Pirates City for Spring Training, and although his debut was expected last season, many expected it to be later into the season, seeing as Jones pitched just 82 innings at AAA-Indianapolis the year prior.

The young right-hander was the number 11 prospect via MLB Prospects by the end of 2023 and quickly rose into the top-five as the offseason progressed and hype surrounded his potential debut, and what came next is rarely seen in the baseball space.

Jones tossed 16.1 innings of scoreless baseball in Spring Training, tallying 15 strikeouts along the way and allowing an impressive .167 batting average against in the small sample size, but it was enough to convince general manager Ben Cherington to bring Jones along with the big league club to begin the season.

His impact was felt immediately, as Jones struck out 10 Miami Marlins batters while allowing just three earned runs in his big league debut on 89 pitches, putting all the spotlight on the young right-hander as a new, potentially elite addition to the starting rotation.

Jones followed by tossing six innings for the Pirates in their home opener versus Baltimore, kick-starting a 2.86 ERA month of April. May and June weren’t as impressive, seeing the ERA balloon to 3.99 and 3.97 in those months, but Jones became a steady force in the rotation alongside Mitch Keller, even before the eventual seismic arrival of Paul Skenes.

Injuries would plague the back half of the season for Jones though, as he missed nearly two months before returning fully in September, his worst month of the season thanks to a 5.06 ERA. Nevertheless, Jones turned heads quickly and solidified himself as a future piece of the Pirates rotation, which has the makings of a potential top-10 unit.

That catapults Jones to 2025, a season that will likely see an increase in workload for Jones, who threw 121.2 innings in 2024. Fatigue played a factor last season, seeing as it was clearly the most Jones has ever pitched in a single campaign, although he came close in 2023 in the minors, but a slowing down of his skillset was expected in his debut campaign.

Now, with Jones being apart of a strong trio that also consists of Keller and Skenes, the expectation is to increase that workload. To what degree is unclear, but one would expect, health permitting, for that innings total to increase.

Of course one would hope that the increase comes with play closer to his first-half of 2024 self, rather than the injury and fatigue riddled second half, and honing down a strong third pitch could do that for Jones.

Jones is well-known for his strong fastball, slider duo, seeing as that combination of pitches is what made Jones such an intriguing prospect to begin with, but his reliance on those pitches both helps and hurts him.

The fastball and slider combined for 84.1-percent of Jones usage in 2024, while a curveball and changeup made small appearances here and there. Jones was very aware of this, even saying this to Alex Stumpf of MLB.com,

“I think the scouting report is fastball-slider, and if it’s anything else, just spit [on it], it’s probably not going to be a strike.”

Jones said this in September, the month that saw his curveball usage as its highest(15.7-percent), and his willingness to add a third pitch he can rely on this offseason has been a central focus for Jones, who even expressed interest in learning Paul Skenes’ splinker pitch, but whether he learns it or not won’t matter unless a third pitch shows good results.

Both the curveball and changeup were hit at above a .300 batting average last season, but the sample size is rather small, seeing as both pitches were thrown less than 200 times. The fastball and slider saw rather good results, with each accounting for 59 strikeouts, while his curveball and changeup accounted for just a combined 14 strikeouts on the year.

If Jones can successfully make the curveball, changeup or any third pitch a reliable one and not just a throwaway pitch, his ceiling could raise itself to All-Star caliber, and pairing it with the intensity Jones shows on the mound could result in even better production.

Health plays a massive part in all of this as well, because, unlike Skenes, Jones has an injury “history” already, which of course is a factor with any young pitcher nowadays. If Jones stays healthy and his added workload isn’t too much for him, he and Skenes could create one of baseball’s most dynamic young pitching duos in the process.

Jones should also be the benchmark for what to expect from rookie pitchers moving forward in Pittsburgh. Skenes was damn near perfect last year, and that can’t be expected of every young starter, but if Jones can set the precedent for the likes of Bubba Chandler and others for a rookie season, surely the team will welcome that with open arms.

“I’m just beginning” is yet another set of lyrics from Unwritten, and that is precisely what Jones is doing. He is in the beginning of what could wind up being a rather impressive career when all said and done, and if one of those secondary pitches can improve and Jones can stay healthy, 2025 should be just as, if not more impressive than one of the better rookie campaigns we’ve seen from a rookie starter in Pittsburgh, outside of Skenes of course.

“No one else can feel it for you, only you can let it in.” That should be the feeling of hype around Jones in 2025, feel it, embrace it, and watch as Jones continues to mature and hone his craft and become a strong starter in this league, because his rookie campaign was just planting the seeds for a potential breakout campaign in 2025.

2025 Player Profile: Paul Skenes

By Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN / @LockedOnPirates

Welcome to the 2025 Player Profile Series everyone.

For starters, these profiles are based off of what we know at the time of writing, barring surprise extensions, signings, injuries, or anything else that could impact a player’s overall framework heading into the Pittsburgh Pirates 2025 campaign.

I couldn’t find a better way to kick off this series of pieces than with Paul Skenes, who had a 2024 rookie campaign filled with magical moments, grace, and even a little attitude, in a good way of course, that resulted in NL Rookie of the Year honors, All-MLB honors, an All-Star Game starting appearance, all which put the young superstar in MLB’s spotlight as one of the game’s top young stars.

So, the elephant in the room question has to be, what kind of encore does Skenes have in store for 2025?

As far as the statistics are concerned, Skenes was nothing short of elite, collecting 170 strikeouts in 133.0 IP, equating to a 11.50 K/9, all while posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, numbers otherwise reserved for elite closer company.

Skenes last 15 outings of his total of 23 were among his best, posting a 1.87 ERA in 86.2 IP with 109 strikeouts and a 0.92 WHIP, which helped solidify his superb season among the best in the National League, and well, all of baseball.

All of these impressive numbers come before you even sniff the advanced analytics, which saw Skenes place himself in the 90th percentile or higher in xERA(2.53), xBA(.193) and strikeout rate(33.1), coupled with impressive metrics in ground ball rate(52.3), barrel rate(5.2), whiff rate(28.7) and pitching run value(31), making for quite the red out on his Statcast page.

Again, this was all in 133 innings, a number that will surely be surpassed in 2025, seeing as Skenes will begin the season on the MLB roster and likely be the headliner in what could be one of baseball’s best rotations.

Steamer projections via FanGraphs have Skenes slotting in at 188 innings, about 47 innings short of his collegiate total between his time at Air Force and LSU(235) and about 55 innings more than his 2024 total. The Steamer projections are paired with a 2.80 ERA and 242 strikeouts in 31 starts, suggesting Skenes sees an uptick in usage without eclipsing the 200+ IP mark.

Expectations would expect Skenes to once again appear in the Mid Summer Classic, seeing as he was among the best pitchers in the NL in 2024, all while MGM Sportsbook expects Skenes to seriously compete for the coveted Cy Young Award in 2025 as well, having him as the betting frontrunner for the award ahead of 2024 winner Chris Sale, Zach Wheeler and newly signed Dodgers left-hander Blake Snell.

Strictly staying at the Pirates perspective, the expectation for Skenes should be to be the frontrunner of a pitching staff that should be headlined by Skenes himself and the impressive duo of Mitch Keller, who has been the workhouse of the staff since 2022, and rookie standout Jared Jones, who has his own unique expectations heading in 2025.

One would also expect Skenes to step up as a vocal leader of the clubhouse in 2025, especially after this statement to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette at PiratesFest,

“I don’t know what the character of that will be, but I’ll have probably a little more say-so,” Skenes said. “… I’m not going to overstep, but winning is winning. We’ve got to do what we’ve got to do to make it happen.”

Skenes becoming a vocal leader in the clubhouse would have massive impacts, seeing as a ton of the success the Pirates strive for in 2025 hinges on Skenes and the starting pitching group, and with 2025 being such a crucial year, a step forward for Skenes, which would be even more impressive than what we witnessed in 2024, would no doubt elevate the club as a whole to what they desire, bringing competitive baseball back to Pittsburgh.

Health plays a major factor for Skenes as well, with arm injuries for hard throwing starting pitchers, and even relievers, at an all-time high across all of baseball, and 2024 was a relatively healthy season for Skenes as he stretched himself out across his first MLB season, and one hopes his arm, and overall health, can remain intact for his, and the team’s, sake.

An increase in workload, which is expected, does not mean Skenes won’t be on some kind of innings limit, seeing as the team will do anything it can to protect one of, if not their most important, asset in decades, and going back to Steamer’s projections, 180-190 innings would seem like an ideal range for Skenes in his second season.

Take Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider for example. Strider, considered one of MLB’s best pitchers and workhorses, threw 131.2 innings across 20 starts in his first full campaign with the Braves. The following season, he elevated his workload to 186.2 innings, a 55 inning increase, posting 200-plus strikeouts in both campaigns. Expect a similar uptick for Skenes, who would also look to avoid the surgery that came Strider’s way the following season, the dire reality to increasing the workload on any starting pitcher nowadays.

Injuries aside, 2025 has every chance to be as magical, if not more magical, than what we as fans and the club witnessed from the generational talent that is Skenes in 2024. Skenes has a unique skillset, coupled with through the roof potential, that could make him one of the best pitchers to ever do it when his career comes to a close, which mind you is a very, very long time from now.

In all likelihood, Skenes will begin his campaign as the Opening Day starter at Miami when the season kicks off and beyond that, and what this profile should have told you, just sit back, watch, and marvel and what a generational pitching talent, especially in the Black and Gold, looks like, because they don’t come around often and the talent should be appreciated by everyone, even outside of this fanbase.

I want to end each profile with the player’s top moment, in my mind, from 2024, and for Skenes, its hard to imagine any moment better than his first at PNC Park, which is now highlighted by his 1/1 Topps debut patch card being found by an 11-year old in Los Angeles.

https://twitter.com/Pirates/status/1881780780340551921

https://twitter.com/Pirates/status/1856351998737822099

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Does it all come down to coaching?

1-20-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Pirates Fest for the second straight year was at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center, and this year, spread out over 2 days.

A whole lot happened, some of which I’ll mention here, some I’ll write about separately if only because they have me thinking of bigger concepts that aren’t appropriate for this piece.

I often think about what happens when social media protests, or tough online talk meet real life, and to a degree, I got to see it. I also got to see players extremely put off by it. The funny thing is, the owner and GM were very much so the targets, but lost in all that is a room full of guys who don’t think they represent “not trying”.

That’s always something that winds up becoming apparent in these things. The setting isn’t conducive to the goal many of these protesters want to achieve.

Let’s go!

1. Kids Don’t See What We See

This was easily my biggest takeaway.

Pirates Fest is really at its core for the kids. It’s built to get kids near players, activities and to form their own connection to the game. Some get to take a swing against Paul Skenes, others get a smile and handshake from Andrew McCutchen.

Almost none of them know who Bob Nutting is, and almost no parents want to stop the kids from having fun to explain it to them. That’s largely what the Sell the Team stuff brought to the party generally speaking.

I heard kids asking their parents why they didn’t want the free T-shirt outside before I even entered the event. I also saw some who took one and their parents told them not to put it on largely because they know how uncomfortable that would be when meeting players.

When a chant tried to break out at the Q&A, the few kids who were there were left largely confused. Certainly didn’t understand why Greg Brown sounded like their English teacher scolding the class for acting up.

I don’t mean this to say they shouldn’t have protested. I just mean it to say, all this accomplished in this instance was to confuse kids, irritate players (some of which we supposedly want to convince to stay here), and get the team president to once again affirm Bob Ain’t Selling.

Lost causes are causes too.

I will say, those who were protesting showed respect for this by in large. Meaning, if someone just looked like they wanted to walk past and enjoy the event, they were left alone. The Q&A is really the only time it was truly apparent once you were inside anyway that anything was going on and like him or how he handled it or not, Greg Brown put a stop to it relatively quickly. There were some “edgy” questions here and there, but nothing too shocking.

The “you never ask the tough questions” crowd though, they were delivered a first hand example of why those questions don’t get asked. Because they don’t get answers, they get shut down, disavowed and moved on from.

That’s all I really have on this for now. What these fans are doing, well, I may think it’s like trying to saw down a tree with a toothbrush, but you have to respect that they’re doing more than just bitching online.

I’d imagine we’ll see another ramp up for the Home Opener of some sort, and the 50% Yankees Fan audience will get a nice chuckle out of it I’m sure, but rest assured, Bob isn’t selling, the team already thinks they’re getting better regardless of what you think they should do and they’ll either be right or you will.

The thing I’m most curious about is what happens if the team is right? My guess, it lingers, but dwindles in participation either way.

Trying to advance a movement by ignoring the single biggest gathering of Pirates fans outside of a game would be silly, but kids being a good third of the audience, probably not ideal for effectiveness.

It’s like showing up to the Christmas Market in Market Square with signs that Santa isn’t real. You’re probably going to create confused kids and irritated parents, more so than converts to your cause.

2. Company Men?

“I think we have a responsibility to do that to the city and within the organization,” Skenes said. “There are a lot of people who put a lot of work into it. We’ve got really good people within this organization, within player development, within the front office, stuff like that. I think we owe it to them. … If you go out and sign the [Shohei] Ohtanis, maybe it becomes a little bit easier — he’s Ohtani for a reason — but there’s no reason we can’t play fundamental baseball and execute at a very high level without having players like that. It’s not a complicated game.”

Paul Skenes is either, stupid, lying, toting the company line, or he’s right.

We don’t have to know which, because right now what’s important is what he believes. Consistently he’s pointed to his belief in what the team is doing, where they are, and how simply closing out games “they should have won” will change everything.

The players, Paul included of course, aren’t using words like competitive, or getting better, they’re using words like playoffs. It’s clear that’s their goal for 2025, and it’s also clear it’s what they think they can achieve.

Don’t get me wrong, every Spring we hear our team come together and talk about how high they’re reaching. Even in 2021 when it was clear they’d be competitive for worst record in baseball they’d talk about believing in the room and the team and the young talent and, well, you get the point.

The difference is, this isn’t the 2021 roster.

How about listening to Bryan Reynolds?

Again, with the finish. Finish games. Finish the season. A lot of what he saw last year was what he called young guys “weathering a season”.

He also plans to step up as a vocal leader more. “I’m not going to change who I am and get in the middle of the clubhouse and scream and holler and do all that,” Reynolds said. “But, I think I got better at it last year too, just keep building that and saying things when they need to get said, little things here and there.”

He also called for a more consistent lineup. Maybe the first place he’ll be vocal is with Shelton.

He also said “I think everybody knows this is the best it’s been since I’ve been here”.

Two leaders of this team, both as responsible as anyone on the roster for the belief they have enough to accomplish one of their goals, making the playoffs.

This roster is not nearly as bleak as the offseason has felt, at least according to the players.

3. Baseball Economics

I wrote a long piece about this early in the offseason. If you didn’t read it, it touches on a ton of concepts and really paints the picture of where this league is right now.

It’s in depth and covers the concept well. It was also written back in November, meaning none of the suppositions in there gather in all the intel from what the Dodgers have done with the rest of the offseason.

I put that there, because this isn’t a subject that deserves to be short changed. Read it if you like, if not, let me just list off some basic truths we should all get our arms around.

  • There can be no cap without a floor and aggressive revenue sharing, ever. For the same reasons, there can be no floor without a cap and aggressive revenue sharing. Remember, a cap system isn’t about ensuring every team makes the same amount of revenue, it’s about ensuring every team can build their team with the same tools. As it stands now, we’re asking 20 teams to build with Tinker Toys what 10 teams are building with AI assisted engineering and nano particles.
  • The Revenue Sharing aspect needs help. Without a league wide TV deal in place, it’s near impossible to balance the books. The continuing death of cable TV will take care of this over time for everyone but a couple, but for now, far too many teams have their own negotiated contractual situations.
  • Ticket sales have very little to do with the overall revenue figures. Yes, it’s true the Pirates made their best revenues when their payroll was at it’s highest, but the team was also good. Largely spawned by cheap extensions, some strategic signings and built on the backs of years of losing squads. Even then, it wasn’t a lot higher than a 100 loss season.
  • The payroll will go up this year. It’ll be higher than it was in 2024 (I’ve been told they have a 100 million dollar budget this year), and 2026 will be more than 2025. So on and so on. This team can spend more, they just aren’t going to spend more on the way there. Argue it all you like, but this is a team that simply isn’t going to jump 30 million in a season. Frankly, most teams aren’t. There is a top to all this. Meaning there will again come a day when they don’t feel they can afford all the arbitration figures, but we’re 4-5 years away from that, and that largely depends on how much things change, or don’t for that matter with the game economically speaking.
  • Keep in mind, the “budget” is for the entire season. Last year Cherington didn’t like being so close to his budget at the deadline and felt handcuffed to improve the team by it. For that reason, I expect them to enter the season at around 90-95 million, hoping he has room to add with more freedom. I also can’t say whether Bob would allow him to push in more chips when the time comes, but I know he didn’t last year.
  • There is no path to a Salary Cap System that won’t cost at least half a season if not more. Every major sports league in the country has shown this. Also, players will never “agree” to it. Owners set the rules. Bottom line, if there are enough owners that feel the league can’t continue like this, the players will either relent over time or eventually the league will return with scabs until the players start trickling back. Sounds cruel, sucks for fans, but there is no path to these sides negotiating this stuff in an offseason without pain.

4. The Dodgers Still Have to Play Games

When you build a “super team” the thing is you still have to go out and win the games. Every series the Dodgers play this year, they’ll be expected to win. They’ll get no grace for injuries, they’ll get no benefit of doubt for a skid. They have to go out and beat a very capable Padres team, hold off a young and hungry Giants squad and stay ahead of the Diamondbacks who didn’t exactly take a step back this offseason themselves. And that’s just in their division.

They’ll have every team in the league approach a series with them like it’s their World Series.

Look, they’re plenty equipped to do it. They should run rough shot over this league and win at least 100 games in the regular season, but bottom line, they have to go play the games.

If they slip, any of those 3 teams could steal what they clearly are tying to buy.

Obvious stuff right? Well, this is why we play the games. It’s the same reason you can’t just assume your team will finish where you think they line up. Remember that devastatingly bad Pirates team who swept the Dodgers back in 2021 and went on to lose 100 games?

Make no mistake though, the Dodgers have done what no other team could. All they’ve done that’s “special” is decide they don’t need half a billion in profit, they’ll settle for 400 million. LOL

The game is still played on the field, and 29 other teams will enter the season feeling their roster isn’t the best in baseball….on paper.

That said, 25 or so believe they can win.

One day, regardless of what the league does to their economics, the Dodgers will pay on the field prices for what they’ve done. When they have 7 or 8 guys in their late 30’s or early 40’s making a ton of money for how they performed when they were 30. If they did this right, they’ll be able to sop up tears with 4 or 5 championship banners though.

This offseason and what the Dodgers have done is almost just as much an admission they know the league is going to change as it is an attempt to build a dynasty. A thumb in the nose of anyone who can’t keep up is a sure fire way to admit you know knives are already out so your actions no longer matter. No sense in not pissing off teams you know for damn sure are already angry and plotting. And I don’t even mean a cap is for sure coming, I just mean the league isn’t just going to allow things to go on like this. Change will come, and the Dodgers know it. Or at least know it’s likely. Grandfathering in many of these deals after rule changes is inevitable.

Until then, they’ll wear a target on their backs and it won’t be a sponsorship from Target.

5. Two Young Teams Look to Flip the NL Central Upside Down

The Reds and Pirates are on an incredibly parallel track.

Both teams tore down their previous failed attempts to win early in the decade. Both teams massed young talent all around the diamond. Both have big armed, high pedigree rotations. Both have questions all over the field preventing them from being seen as a locked in contender, but both with potential to show up and produce.

One team, the Reds, decided to add a future hall of fame coach to remove all doubt that coaching was the issue. One team didn’t.

That may very well come down to the difference.

The Pirates are probably further ahead on the mound, the Reds are probably a bit farther ahead in the field.

Neither team has the money to layer a lineup full of veterans overtop of the youngsters they’re trying to onboard. Sure, they could both do it for a year or two, but they’ll both face the same financial challenges as arbitration and extension price tags come due.

The bill always comes due in MLB. Even the teams in the low end of the spending spectrum eventually have to pony up, at least to where they’re capable.

Again, the Reds realized their success relies heavily on turning these young players into players the rest of the league wishes they had and in that effort they brought in a coach in Tito who’s done it before.

The Pirates are rolling the dice that they have the right man in place, even as they’ve watched him not accomplish it in his first 5 seasons at the helm.

I know which one I’d place my bet on, and personally, I think the Pirates have the better side of this effort fleshed out with the pitching. These two teams will in many ways be the measuring stick for each other’s progress through the end of the decade.

Through many things like the league becoming more and more economically divided, and incompetent ownership groups, to the legendary rivalry of the 70’s between the Lumber Company and the Big Red Machine, these teams are true rivals and we should be staring down the barrel at half a decade of these two being the thorn in each other’s side.