It’s Up To You Nick Yorke, Nick Yorke

1-17-25 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following a bit of a bashing in last week’s article, I have decided to go more positive with this week’s topic. So start spreading the news because my 2025 breakout pick is none other than Nick Yorke

And, for the record, I started writing this prior to the SI article coming out recently.

The base numbers over his admittedly small sample size in Pittsburgh weren’t great (a .664 OPS in 42 plate appearances and below average defense) but a look under the hood indicates that he could surprise some fans in 2025.

Acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for 2019 first rounder, RHP Quinn Priester at this past year’s trade deadline, Nick Yorke is a fellow former first round draft pick from the 2020 season. He was consistently ranked among the top in Red Sox Prospect rankings and currently ranks 6th in a top-heavy Pirates farm system, per MLB Pipeline.

Yorke excelled following the trade in Indianapolis, slashing .355/.431/.507 through 175 plate appearances in 40 games before getting called up in September.

The guy has hit at every level, and has been hitting harder contact more often in the higher levels. Over his stretch with Indy, he posted a 49.6% Hard Hit rate with average exit velocity of 91.3 MPH and MaxEV of 110.9.

For MLB comparisons, the average EV number would match with the Tigers Riley Greene and the now-Texas Ranger, Jake Burger, while the max EV would have matched the marks of Padres Jake Cronenworth and now-Diamondbacks player, Josh Naylor.

That’s not to say that Yorke will exactly translate those numbers from his minor league performance to the majors in this upcoming season but it does show that there is no lack of ability there.

Even in his small sample time with the Bucs, his xBA of .290 was well above his actual batting average (.216) due in part to half of his 26 batted ball events ranking as hard hit and 4 of them being barreled balls – or 15.4%, a higher rate than all but 12 qualified hitters in 2024.

Defensively, his home is up in the air. He’s logged the most innings throughout his professional career at second base but has also has experience in the outfield, a place where there would be more opportunities to get him in the field and in the lineup – especially as the organization has been linked to multiple free agents but thus far signed none.

His sprint speed of 28.9 feet/second is in the 90th percentile among major leaguers and if he could utilize that to cover ground in a corner outfield spot, his bat will keep him in the lineup.

As far as expectations, most projections have him as a part-time player with limited roles and production for the team given his lack of an open position but, with a strong spring training and enough opportunities, I would look to expect some BIG things from Yorke in 2025.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – International Shakeup

1-13-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Nothing reminds me faster just how low the expectations are for the Pittsburgh Pirates than seeing the reactions to another first round bounce by the Steelers and the current state of the Penguins.

Winning every year more than you lose to a Pirates fan sounds like some kind of baseball nirvana that we simply can’t fathom. Winning every year more than you lose but missing the playoffs or squeaking in to a Steelers or Penguins fan sounds a lot like hell.

Different leagues of course, with different situations, but on the surface if you simply asked the same fan who follows all 3 if they’d take being over .500 every year for the next decade for the Pirates, solid chance you get a thumbs up. Especially if you keep in mind in MLB that very well could be a playoff season in any given year.

In hockey or football though, there’s very little chance you hire a new GM and coach with the expectation they’ll stink for 4-5 years before they approach that middling goal of just not losing more than you win.

If Mike Tomlin or Mike Sullivan had even 2 or 3 years of that kind of performance, they’re gone. Of course, their bosses also wouldn’t have ripped away every player who had an ounce of value before you started either.

The point is, the Pirates have a path here to be seen in a much more positive light, by merely matching what the other Pittsburgh sports teams have done for decades.

It won’t satisfy fans for long, but it would give them a bit bigger piece of the local attention wrestling match for a minute.

Sure would be nice if for once they were smart enough to capitalize on it.

Let’s go!

1. Sasaki Landslide

Look, before I start this entry, let me begin by saying there is no world in which you wouldn’t prefer your team to be in on Roki Sasaki, or more accurately, have him be in on your team, but just having him insert himself into the International Signing period that opens this week is creating a flood of players that potentially will come available.

Reportedly, the Pirates have already pounced on one, namely Darell Morel who was lined up to sign with the Dodgers. The 6′ 5″ shortstop is likely to get 1.8 million from the Bucs out of their 6.9 million dollar pool of cash they’re allowed to spend on this market.

For those of you who don’t pay much attention to this market, many of these players have had relationships with scouts in the region since they were 14 or 15 years old and when the window opens for their eligibility, they usually have a verbal agreement with a team in place.

Teams holding out for Roki Sasaki who is very likely to rake in the bulk of any team’s pool of cash has teams seeking trades to acquire pool space, and breaking verbal commitments to prospects they planned to sign.

Trading for pool space, not cash. Remember, you’re acquiring the right to spend more money, not necessarily the money itself, and further, you can only acquire 250K in space at a time and can only increase their pool by 60% total, so it’s not easy to just bolt on a million with the snap of your fingers.

These kids won’t wait to find out how this shakes out. Sasaki just being dropped into a pool that was likely entirely committed to already obviously displaces some guys and bumps them around the league to different teams.

I’m not going to go into how the league comes to these figures, it’s not important for this discussion, but it is important to understand the setup.

  • $7,555,500: Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, and Tampa Bay Rays
  • $6.9 million: Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, and Pittsburgh Pirates
  • $6.26 million: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, and Toronto Blue Jays
  • $5.64 million: Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals
  • $5.14 million: Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

If the Dodgers are truly the front runner for Roki, you can see why they would likely have to drop some of their bigger handshake agreements and you can also see why there are some teams in better position to snap them up. This collateral damage will trickle even more. 1.8 million from the Pirates will likely cause them to have to back out of something they had planned too.

The Market opens on January 15th and runs all the way through December. The vast majority of this money will be spent by the end of the week though.

I know, I know, you don’t care about some 16 year old who won’t be here for 8 years. I get it, just remember, a whole lot of players you’d love to have came from this very acquisition field. You’re going to want good players 10 years from now, just as much as you want them now.

With this addition falling through the cracks left by Roki, the Pirates are projected to land 3 of the top 100 prospects, and we might not be done with the windfall.

2. Slow Down on Dealing Lefty Arms

In the Spencer Horwitz deal, the Pirates sent along with Luis Ortiz two young lefty pitchers, LHP Josh Hartle, and LHP Michael Kennedy.

You may not know who they are yet, and nobody needs to know what they’ll become. I have my opinion on Kennedy at least, but I’ll hold it back because it’s not as important as the overall point here.

Organizationally speaking, developing left handed starters has been almost as impossible as developing a first baseman.

This club under Ben Cherington has done well with pitching up to and including acquiring it from outside the organization.

Starters don’t always wind up starting obviously, but they haven’t really developed a solid lefty reliever either since say Tony Watson or Justin Wilson.

They have started to at least mass some guys who are proceeding through the organization, two of which as I mentioned have been dealt.

Bailey Falter and Caleb Ferguson represent the two top options from the left side in the majors, if you’d like, you can add in waiver claim Joey Wentz as well.

There is very little in AAA. Tyler Samaniego is a 26 year old organization player, and he could probably contribute in the pen this year although he isn’t currently on the 40-man and that’s really it.

Starting in AA Altoona the surging Hunter Barco, probably the cream of this crop is making good progress and should progress to AAA this year. Anthony Solometo stalled a bit last year, but is working this offseason to add some velocity and clean up his mechanics a bit. Funky delivery, and he too should reach AAA if he even has a reasonably successful season. Dominic Perachi was drafted in 2022, but he took a nice jump last year as well. Feels more like a bullpen guy to me, but I haven’t followed him nearly as closely as the other two. There’s really not much that impresses me bullpen wise at this level, maybe Jaden Woods, but he’d have to show me a bit more this year.

Once you get to the A and A+ levels, you’re looking at lottery tickets or guys who just got picked.

Josh Hartle, Michael Kennedy would have both slotted in at AA and below, but their pedigree rests a step below Hunter Barco.

The point of all this is, I’d like to see them commit to getting one of two of these kids to the bigs, and thinning an already thin herd is not healthy for the farm if you catch my drift.

If the Pirates move any more pitching prospects for help, I’m suggesting they should be right handed. They’ve got a lot more of those, so does everyone else, which of course is why they’ve dealt what they’ve dealt.

AA is a step away, to have 2 of them that close is promising for the immediate future here in this regard, it’s also not deep enough to continue to use it as currency. That ship sailed off to Cleveland already.

They can add more in the International Signing period, or they could be smart and trade off some expiring contracts this year like Isiah Kiner-Falefa at the deadline supposing he’s been replaced as a starter and recoup something similar to what they sent out already.

A team like this has to be self sufficient and that goes doubly for things that are expensive to acquire at the MLB level. Lefty pitching, power hitting, big velocity, blazing speed, you’re acquiring skills, more so than players when they’re young, but a healthy farm doesn’t run thin on things they won’t be able to patch when they look up one day and realize they don’t have any.

3. Which Prospects Could Debut in 2025?

I won’t hit all these, I promise you. I watch minor league baseball with great interest, but I don’t study it like Craig Toth used to on this site and still does on his Bucs in the Basement podcast, or Anthony Murphy from Bucs on Deck. My projections will be more based on the depth chart, Rule 5 protection status entering 2026 and of course my expected performance for each.

In other words, this ain’t some prospect Bible, but I bet it’s pretty close. I’ll rate their chances as L-Likely, P-Probable and S-Stretch

Abrahan Gutierrez – C – S Rating – Abrahan is in AA, and has been invited as an NRI. Defensively, he’s said to be really solid, and lord knows Cherington wanted him, they tried to trade for him twice before finally landing him from the Phillies back in 2021. He’s got a lot of traffic to jump past, and honestly, it might be best to keep him tied to Barco and Solometo for their development. He’s not burnable like our next entry.

Carter Bins – C – S Rating –Carter is in AAA, and depending on what the Pirates wind up doing with Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis and Jason Delay the 3 guys not named Joey Bart who are on the 40 man, he simply might barely play, in fact he could be bumped back to AA if they chose just to give the pitching there a better backstop. He’s a stretch because the only way I see this happening is if 2 or 3 of the projected MLB catchers were to get hurt, he’s the type of guy you’d add short term to the 40 man knowing you’ll cut him 2 weeks later when you get healthy. Like Metallica said, Sad but True.

Nick Cimillo – 1B – S Rating – Nick is a kid who really showed up last year and the addition of Spencer Horwitz probably means he can take his time in AA and ultimately AAA pressure free. Read up about him here. I put him here because he will be Rule 5 eligible in December and if a guy is promising the Pirates like to get them the 40-man spot along with a cup of coffee promotion when possible. If he looks like a guy who might get taken, they don’t have to call him up, but he should be on protection watch.

Sammy Siani – OF – P Rating – Sammy performed well in the AFL and he’s a talented fielder who was drafted in 2019 and has progressed slowly through the system. The Pirates aren’t exactly loaded with outfield talent, and I see Sammy as the exact type of guy who earns himself a shot, even if it’s just a use him or lose him type thing a la Bligh Madris or even Cal Mitchell.

Matt Gorski – OF – P Rating – A whole lot of what I wrote for Sammy up there, but Matt is the type of kid who can catch fire and again as thin as the Pirates are in the outfield, you could absolutely see them taking a look, even if it ultimately costs them his services as a prospect. Power for days with a ton of swing and miss, but if he gets on a heater, he’s be hard to leave in AAA, even if it’s short lived.

Braxton Ashcraft – P – L Rating – One way or another, it’s very hard to see Ashcraft lasting all year and not once being seen as in their top 13 arms. He could start, he could wind up in the pen, but they won’t burn an entire year with him on the 40-man unless he takes a giant step backward.

Bubba Chandler – P – L Rating – Bubba is different. This is not a guy who has to make it because of timing, or probably will because of weaknesses in the roster. Bubba is a guy who could flat out wind up being ready and already capable of taking a job from someone else. He’s likely even while not being on the 40-man, if only because he’s very likely to overmatch almost all his AAA competition and while strong, the Pirates don’t currently have the ’92 Braves rotation. I just don’t see anything short of injury that prevents Bubba from cracking MLB this year, maybe as early as Opening Day.

Thomas Harrington – P – P Rating – I think Thomas is going to be ready. He arguably has the best command in the system of his pitches, and his stuff remains competitive. In other words, this guy doesn’t pull back to command his stuff, he comes right at you with his best spin and can drop it on a dime. Thomas has a shot to make it hard to hold him back just like Bubba, but it’s going to take more attrition if only because his numbers aren’t going to pop off the page until you start compiling them. The only thing keeping him from the “L” rating, is he doesn’t need added to the 40 artificially, and if they can push it off a year, it might be smart.

Po-Yu Chen – P – L Rating – If he performs and makes the team believe they’ll need to protect him in the Rule 5 Draft, it would make sense to make use of him this year. I’m talking an August-September add to the 40-man and let the kid help you in the pen type role.

Sean Sullivan – P – S Rating – Sean is already beyond his R5 status. Anyone could have taken him this year and didn’t, so there’s no pressure there for the team, but he really had a nice 2023, and progressed in 2024 as well. Could easily help in the pen, he’s got a decent amount of innings under his belt, and being a control guy, he isn’t a big risk to give a shot to.

Eddy Yean – P – L Rating – The only remaining return from the Josh Bell trade, Eddy was a lottery ticket that really never popped off. The team sent him to the AFL this year and promoted him to AAA, at 23 years old, I expect him to get a shot to help this team in the bullpen and he’s been added to the NRI list for Spring Training. We’ll know one way or another after this year how bad or potentially ok the Josh Bell trade was.

Emmanuel Chapman – P – L Rating – Emmanuel is 26 years old, and was signed out of Cuba by your Buccos. he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2027 at the ripe old age of 28. All that said, he’s in AAA, and has the profile of one of those guys you never heard of who suddenly looks unhittable and came from nowhere. Open mind…

Elvis Alvarado – P – L Rating – Elvis was an intentional targeted free agent acquisition. He has not yet made his MLB debut, but he’s right there and on the 40-man already. I don’t know that he’ll make the team in Spring, but I’m almost positive he’ll make his debut in 2025.

Honorable mention but I just don’t see it, Malcom Nunez, Jase Bowen, Matt Fraizer, Tres Gonzalez, JC Flowers, Jack Brannigan, Termarr Johnson and Josah Sightler.

4. Really, How Could This Rotation Work?

The first thing to say here is, when is the last time you watched 5 guys shove from stem to stern?

Right. Like, I get being super concerned about who starts out of camp, or who gets a shot to start, or who isn’t better than who, because, that’s what fans do. We all do, I mean I have my “perfect” vision of the rotation when they come North too.

But you have to chill a bit, and realize it’s much more important to figure out your true mix of MLB capable starters.

If you can get to 10, and you actually think all 10 “could” be good, you probably have something. If you can only get to 6, ouch, you better get some more NRIs.

This team is blessed right now.

As I see it, this is the rotation if I were making it out right now.

Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, now if you disagree on my 5th starter, who cares. I really mean that, pick someone I count as depth and switch them.

Beyond that you have Johan Oviedo who only lands here for his injury status, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and the Pirates would have you believe Caleb Ferguson.

That’s 10, 4 of which have next to no MLB experience, one who’s a reliever and one who’s returning from UCL.

I’ll be honest, I’d like another. And I mean beyond Carson Fulmer. This team would do well to see about getting another veteran. I wonder if Jose Quintana would want to take another ride with Marin. Someone that hopefully kids push aside and you can deal or he really becomes a go to vet and you ride it out. I’d like the veteran depth.

Don’t get me wrong, I think that Bubba could be ready. Really. I just like having someone to help carry the weight of being dad to this group. Skenes will assume it on his own if he hasn’t already begun, but he’s going to have enough pressure on him, let’s not have him have to shepherd in kids too.

5. The PNC Park Advantage

The ballpark is beautiful, quirky, and has beautiful views from almost any vantage point, but this is about the on the field stuff, not the fan experience.

The dimensions have been notoriously called pitcher friendly, especially for left handed pitching. And this team has simply never done what almost every Pirates fan assumed logically would come. Loading up on left handed starters who could take advantage of the insane depth of the notch in left center has simply never happened here. The Clemente Wall was to be a beacon for left handed power hitters, and they’ve had 4 players eclipse 30 homeruns at PNC, 3 of them lefties with Pedro Alvarez, Josh Bell and Brian Giles, and Jason Bay the lone righty.

The Pirates simply aren’t taking advantage of their dimensions, and it makes me wonder, would they be better off as they have superior pitching right now in theory for the rotation, moving the notch in and making it a bit more homerun friendly to left field?

This would make left field easier to patrol, which helps Bryan Reynolds. It makes power to the allies a thing again, so your guys like Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis, hell, Andrew McCutchen don’t have to PULL it or go the other way to pop one.

I get it, to some of you this is going to be like adding a 5th gospel to the good book, I’m just thinking outside the box a bit. If you really believe you’ve assembled pitching that gives you a better than average shot most nights, and you think the offense is loaded with guys who can sting the ball but ain’t hitting it 425 to the gap nearly as often as they’d clear 390, hey, Houston got rid of the in-play hill in center right?

I’m not talking about lowering the Clemente Wall from it’s famous 21 feet. I’m just saying, this ballpark is unique, but maybe it’s time to start thinking about making it a home field advantage based on how the roster has come together.

What do you think? Crazy?

I Don’t Believe In Bailey Falter – And Here’s Why

1-10-25 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Ok, I took a couple months off and am able to start settling in for the Pirates off-season with a little over a month before pitchers and catchers report.

With a clear need to improve the offense which scored the 3rd lowest amount of runs in the National League last year, there is absolutely no reason for me to talk about a specific pitcher and why he is not actually good.

But, fresh off the heels of agreeing to just over $2M in arbitration, let’s dive into our presumptive #5 starter in the rotation.

Heading into this offseason, a surprising amount of people were posting about how our rotation is set and Bailey Falter should be in that rotation because he took such a big step forward in 2024 and yadda yadda yadda. 

Except, it really isn’t and he really shouldn’t and he really didn’t.

Let me preface this by saying that I was overjoyed by the success Falter experienced early on in the season.

The guy that most of us didn’t want on the roster out of spring training, much less starting games for a team expecting to contend, met expectations when he allowed 5 runs in the first inning of the season before he record a single out – and then went on a TEAR, posting a 2.54 ERA over 10 starts in April and May, striking out 36 while walking just 13 over that 60.1 inning stretch – the 19th best mark among qualified starting pitchers over that stretch.

And, on the surface, that’s great! He ate innings, limited runs and put the team in position to win almost every time he took the ball in that stretch.

If you look a bit deeper, you realize that the BABIP of .192 with an average exit velocity of 90.3 MPH would not sustain that level of success, especially with the low strikeout rate.

Did I say low strikeout rate? It’s actually understating it. No one who pitched as many innings as Falter did in 2024 had a lower strikeout rate than he did.

And strikeouts aren’t everything if you can limit walks and keep the ball on the ground – except Falter does neither of those well.

For starters, his 36.2% ground ball rate is 14th lowest among starters with as many innings as he had in 2024 while his line drive rate (21.7%) ranks as the 15th highest.

And while his walk rate (7.6%) only ranked 30th among this group, that is still far too high for someone who doesn’t have above average stuff – or even average stuff, to be honest.

Yes, he wiggles out of trouble and will post some excellent starts. He had five games allowing one run or less and three hits or less while pitching at least 6 innings.

But, he also allowed 4+ runs in 9 different starts in 2024, not going beyond five frames in any of them.

Entering the season with Falter behind Mitch Keller, Jared Jones and reigning Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes – with a return of Johan Oviedo and prospects Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington on the horizon – the starting pitching isn’t necessarily a concern right now so don’t assume $2M means Falter’s spot is set.

Look, having a southpaw in the rotation is great – especially playing a PNC where it has a bit of an advantage given the cavernous left field, but with who they have in the rotation and who is waiting in the wings, the team should tread more carefully this spring if they want to contend during the season.

At least we’ll always have the memories of our lord and savior, Bailey Falter.

https://x.com/Pirates/status/1836209696765571101

Pirates in Agreement with Lefty Pitcher Caleb Ferguson

1-9-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates inked Caleb Furguson to a 1 year pact worth 3 million dollars.

The 27 year old lefty came up in the Dodgers system and last year split time between the Yankees and Astros with mixed results.

42 outings in New York produced numbers that simply don’t reflect the pitcher he’s been in the league, a trend he reverted when he moved on to Houston.

Career numbers are actually fairly impressive, a 3.68 ERA in 263 games, 14 of which were starts. Walks a few more than you’d like, but Strikes out 3 times as many hitters as he walks.

According to Alex Stumpf from MLB.com the Pirates plan to stretch him out to start games in Spring, but this could be as simple as promising an opportunity to a guy who required one to sign the dotted line.

I’m sure he’ll get a chance to stretch out and even start in Spring Training, but in all likelihood, he winds up in the bullpen. If he did beat someone out for a spot, chances are it would be Bailey Falter, in which case, the Pirates would still get a lefty arm for the pen out of this whole deal.

This isn’t completely a whacky idea either. For one thing, Caleb being in the Dodgers system showed too much good to allow him to just toil in the minors, but the Dodgers simply saw his quickest path to the bigs through the bullpen, so they made the switch somewhere in the middle of 2018. So it makes sense that the Yankees or Astros would have no time to play with stretching him back out, he’d done fine as a reliever after all, but now that free agency is his, he’s simply telling his agent he wants a shot to start. The Pirates are in position to offer him a shot, even if it’s thin.

Ferguson possesses a 4 pitch mix, 5 if you want to pretend his Sweeper is used or developed but reality dictates his “sweepers” were just mis-identified cutters with a ton of spin or a slurve that stayed on plane. In fact as he’s continued to evolve as a reliever, he’s really narrowed this mix down to a 4Seam heater and a cutter with a slurve mixed in to keep people honest.

The heater is real, 80th percentile, the Barrel% is elite clocking in at the 97th percentile.

I wouldn’t get too hung up on the starting thing.

First, I’m sure we’ll see him try, I’m sure they’ll give him a shot, but this is a multi-inning guy anyway, so it’s not like he fails at starting and then has to learn how to pitch out of the pen.

Also, I’d just like to say a ton of pitchers want a shot at starting. Colin Holderman when he was first acquired was intended to start. Carmen Mlodzinski was supposed to start. Hell, they even mentioned Aroldis Chapman last year as having starting experience in the minors and that was truly laughable.

Bottom line, they added a lefty who’s had some decent runs in this league. They need more of these, so don’t get hung up on roles, not yet anyway. He’ll have a role, this isn’t a non-roster invite type, this is an MLB pitcher, how valuable, well that remains to be seen but contenders wanted his services last year didn’t they?

Bucs Prospect Watch – The Case for Billy Cook: The Good, The Bad, The Interesting

1-9-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

With the Pirates being said to be pursuing several Outfield options on the free agent market,
something has occurred to me. Where does Billy Cook fit?

Billy Cook came over in exchange for talented pitcher Patrick Reilly at the 2024 trade deadline in a swap with the Baltimore Orioles. Given the depth of hitting talent in Baltimore, Cook found himself utterly blocked in the organization. Pittsburgh, with arms to spare, were glad to oblige the O’s in filling mutual needs. Cook, being slightly older (25) but very productive in 2023 (where he began to take off) & 2024, simply could not outshine his organizational peers. His final statistical MiLB output for 2024 was quite strong.

In his 493 PAs across two levels (AA/AAA) and two organizations (BAL/PIT) looked like this:
HR: 17
XBH: 45
RBI: 74
R: 71
Triple Slash: .275/.375/.474
ISO: .199
wOBA: .377
wRC+: 124
xDamage: .401

That is strong production from a lesser-heralded prospect. To that end, Cook did earn a 16-
game cup of coffee with the Bucs in September. Let’s look at the positives of this debut first and then move to the more questionable aspects after.

The Good

The most eyebrow raising part of Cook’s debut needs to come with a heavy small sample
disclaimer. He only had 49 PAs & 30 Batted Ball Events (BBEs). But don’t fret, we will get to
how I think this balances out with the negatives later. Here are the details that popped in my
view.
Avg EV: 92.6
90% EV: 106.8
MAX: 109
FB/LD EV: 97.1
Barrel%: 8.2%
xDamage: .459
Hard Hit%: 50%

I am a simple man. I see this kind of batted ball data and I begin to levitate slightly. Of course
the sample is quite limited, however, per Baseball Prospectus, exit velocities typically begin to stabilize around 40 BBEs. Please do not interpret this as he will be at this level in 2025. But Cook being in this neighborhood is also not totally unrealistic either.

His AAA EVs for comparison’s sake were:
Avg EV: 89.2
90th EV: 104.1
MAX: 111.2
Pretty clearly, he has some thump in the bat. The EVs on fly balls and line drives (FB/LD)
compared with his tendency to lift (45.5% MiLB) and pull the ball (46.1% in MiLB) tells me his
swing is naturally geared to inflict damage in the air and that is always exciting to see. In fact,
his small sample FB/LD EVs put him in the rare air of Vlad Jr. & Marcell Ozuna.

What’s more is his athletic prowess and defense popped more than expected too. Here I must come clean to this being totally Savant driven excitement, but again, it is exciting to see.

The Bad

In the negative department we’ve got the plate approach and swing decisions. The major league 0.0%/38% BB/K ratio is not good to say the least. And some of this might stem from one of two possible things; either he came up to the Majors looking to swing or he was overmatched and simply made more bad swing decisions in general.

To his credit, his Zone Swing% was well above MLB average at 79.4%. His Chase% was also
well above MLB average at 34.5%.

Billy also showed some L/R split disparity in AAA, and we did see them manifest in the majors to a significant degree. These need to be monitored as well and could limit his overall
usefulness on a club lacking in “complete” hitters.

Frankly, the biggest thing here is that there are obvious hit tool questions present. It will be up to the team and the player to identify some solutions here, but we should move to “The Interesting” to wrap things up.

The Interesting

I spent more time on “The Good” here because it is much more fun to focus on. But The Bad
has potential to be very bad. If the approach and hit tool issues are that bad in a larger sample, it is clear he is not an option for a real MLB role let alone there being much of a shot at ever being a regular. But The Interesting is that his approach has never been this poor at any other level. At AA & AAA his Z-Swing sat at around 66.5% with his Chase% coming in at a more tolerable 26.3% in AAA.

It would be my contention that the approach and swing decision woes in the Majors was largely due to the necessary adjustment period. Major League pitching is exceptionally good. Plain and simple.

Billy Cook did a lot of interesting things in 2024, and he did them at the highest level, small
sample size or not. He brings a profile that this club could use. He is fast, can hit the ball with
authority, plays solid defense in several OF slots & 1B, and is “controllable.” Another thing to
consider is that he just turned 26 this offseason. He is reaching the beginning of his physical
prime and, I think, deserves a good sized-chunk of playing time to see if he is a real part of this club going forward or not.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Cornered

1-6-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s time for another Five Pirates Thoughts here at Steel City Pirates, and as time rolls on, the Pirates biggest issues barely nudge. You could say the Pirates are cornered by their near constant need for corner help.

In fact, even when they manage to come up with an answer, its almost always not quite what the doctor ordered.

Things can change, I mean you can’t say they’ve ever amassed this kind of pitching from internal sources, and yet, here they are. Until they do though, it’s going to be a near constant conversation.

Let’s go!

1. Will We Ever Return to Batting Average Ruling the Roost?

You don’t have to be old to recognize what used to make a ball player a great hitter started with batting average, followed by everything else.

Yeah, of course, there have always been guys who hit a bunch of homeruns with a lower average and yes, they were plenty celebrated, but the best of the best, well, they hit for average too.

Today, you often see primarily younger people in near constant arguments with older fans trying to convince them that .240 is fine because they hit X amount of homeruns or they walk a lot and their OPS is in the right zone.

This stuff is cyclical.

Just like in the NFL, passing used to be almost exclusively streak routes and the throws primarily bombs followed by 15 of the next 20 plays being a 3-5 yard run. Then came the Run and Gun offenses, and the West Coast offenses and now in some cities anyway we’re back to run, run, bomb.

Baseball will adjust too.

Homeruns are valuable, always have been, always will be. The difference today is we’ve stopped seeing it as a skill for those built for it, and instead a skill anyone can build themselves into.

That’s not to say people believe any old schmo can hit 50 homeruns, but it it does mean a guy like Luis Arráez who routinely hits over .300 with homeruns in the single digits tends to be overlooked and undervalued.

I mean, he’s 28 years old, in his last year of arbitration and he’ll likely get somewhere from 12-14 million dollars and enter free agency in 2026 where he’ll not even be one of the top 10 offensive free agents.

That’s where we are, and as long as it’s tied this directly to getting paid, it’s where we’ll stay.

Launch angle theory has surely helped unlock some power from guys who would have struggled to achieve such things, but it’s also created a league where hitting .300 is a party trick that barely gets acknowledged and absolutely doesn’t get paid.

Now, if you’re a freak who hits 35 homeruns and manage to pull in at .280 or higher, chances are you’re one of the most coveted players in the sport. 10 homeruns with a .280 and well, you better play somewhere like second base or center field where fans will plug their nose and accept you while they hope someone who can hit more comes along.

The most likely way this changes is when and if an organization decides to disengage from the arms race for power and instead focus on making contact, getting on base, running, and moving guys over. Not only that, they have to win, and I mean the whole thing. Executives need reminded there are other ways to score, and old films of Rod Carew and George Brett aren’t going to get it done, they need to see it done today, and then, maybe, you’ll start to see it reclaimed as at least an important element.

For now, Launch Angle is king, despite what it does to the bat path, despite what it does to contact numbers, and so far, despite pitching adapting to throwing high fastballs few are capable of touching.

It could be argued the answer pitching came up with, is also causing a huge spike in arm injuries, but much like hitting, the things pitchers are trying to achieve also happen to be what gets them paid.

Again, cyclical, but I firmly believe one day some of us older folks will get a return to some of the things we grew up on.

Oh, and don’t count on the Pirates being that team that cracks the code, the truth is they simply aren’t cultivating either type all that successfully as of now and we’ve seen them with almost no power for 5 years now, if they were going to try, they had the excuse.

2. Isiah Kiner-Falefa isn’t Untouchable

The Pirates have made clear their intention to use IKF at short stop, both verbally and on the field and fans have taken his strangle hold on this position even further by using what they believe they know to suggest his paycheck a reason. The Pirates will pay him 6.28 million this year as Toronto retained 1.2 in the deal for him.

It’s also his last year of team control and almost no matter what he does this year, it’s very unlikely the Pirates will do much to retain him entering his age 31 season.

That part is key. See, in my mind the only way he is a Pirate player for the whole season is if the team is in the playoff race, and I mean in it, and he’s at least played a role in why. If they’re in it and someone else handled the lion’s share of playing time, I’m sure they’d like to move him, but it could be more difficult.

Either way, this is a one year thing, and frankly, if he winds up being in a bench role, good, that’s where he’s best suited to help honestly.

The only thing I can say here to really illustrate my point is, if someone out performs him, IKF isn’t making enough money, even for Pittsburgh, to continue playing him over whomever that mystery player would be.

We also shouldn’t be shunning one of the very few veterans this team has in the fold. You may not want him to start at short, but you should very much so want him around to show kids no matter where the ball is hit, you have a job. You should want him around to show how a professional approaches the day to day. There is value there, and he’ll be worth every penny this year.

3. How Does the NL Central Look?

As with the Pirates, nobody is done. In other words, there is no looking at what teams are right now that is going to paint the opening day picture, but it might shed some light on what these teams are up to, and I’ll even put them in the order I see them finishing if we were to get underway tomorrow.

The Chicago Cubs – Their biggest moves so far have been moving Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, and adding Kyle Tucker from Houston. It wasn’t a direct trade, but if you just swap Bellinger for Tucker, the team has clearly improved, for consistency sake alone. but they aren’t without issues. Their starting rotation is ok, with some younger options in AAA who could fortify it. Probably need more help in their bullpen too. The offense will largely tell their story and while their lineup looks like it will be the most impressive in the NL Central, it doesn’t have a lot of layers to it. Their bench will either be weak, or very young as currently constituted. Still, to me, on paper, they look like the most complete team in the division.

Cincinnati Reds – Young, but another year less so. If anyone in the division can rival the Pirates young hurlers the Reds would be that example and they too have more on the way. Their lineup has talent, again young, and also again with more coming, but they’re in a place where it’s time to see what they have and let it swim a bit. They’ve hired the absolute right guy to oversee it in Terry Francona, not only has he done this before, he has a penchant for getting more out of young talent than a host of his most celebrated contemporaries. A healthy Matt McLain should really help tie things together, but after missing an entire season, well, you’ve seen how that can go at times.

Pittsburgh Pirates – I’m writing this, simply because this is where I think they are right now. We cover them every day, so I’m not going to try to boil all that into a paragraph.

Milwaukee Brewers – Their biggest addition so far has been Nestor Cortes, but it cost them Devin Williams their all world closer. Coupled with the loss of free agent Willy Adames and Frankie Montas, the Brewers can’t be seen in the same light they were last year. They also should get Brandon Woodruff back, which makes their rotation solid at the top, and questionable beyond he and Freddy Peralta. If things go poorly for the Crew this year, you could see them deal one or both of those players, especially if some of their young pitching catches on this year. The lineup looks plenty good, at least for how they play the game, but it isn’t deep and they have real questions at third base. The Brewers are very good at doing more with less, so caution pronouncing them dead.

St. Louis Cardinals – For the first time in decades, the Cardinals seem to be looking to rebuild in a more complete way than they have in the past. The lineup is young, and where it isn’t, they’re looking to make it so as Nolan Arenado is likely headed out and if they could find any takers I’d bet Wilson Contreras would follow him quickly. The Rotation is Sonny Gray and a lot of hope. The bullpen still has weapons, but like many of the other vets, Ryan Helsley could very well find his way on the block. They have some very good prospects, but only one or two who are super close. With the Cardinals, I could still see them signing a bunch of mid tier free agents to one year deals and still shoot to finish around .500, but management seems to be tired of living in MLB’s middle.

4. Stagger if You Can

The Pirates may very well not have this luxury. In other words, this may not be a concept that Pittsburgh is in a position to take advantage of, but it’s still something that GM’s think about, or should at least in a market that arbitration alone could send your payroll to uncomfortable levels.

As I explain this, I think the reason it matters will make itself clear.

Last year the Pirates knocked out a full year of service time for a few players, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez.

These were piled on guys who just surpassed 2 full years of service time. This included Colin Holderman, Bailey Falter, and Oneil Cruz. go to 3 years of service

Now, there are more, but these are guys who look like they have a shot to be here long enough to matter. I could go farther to really flesh out this pyramid, but instead, I’ll just leave it here to help illustrate why staggering prospects onto the roster is important.

That group I listed up there for a full year of service time, they all hit arbitration together, provided they all make it, in 2027. The next group, they hit it in 2026.

So by 2027, the Pirates will have at least this group all in arbitration. For added perspective, Johan Oviedo and Joey Bart are added to the arbitration group this year.

By 2027, Mitch Keller will start making 18 million per, Reynolds will make 15.25.

What I’m saying here is, by 2027, performance assumed, the Pirates could have 13-15 players making more than league minimum, some by quite a bit. When I tell you payroll will go up, it’s not a guess, it’s math.

I’ve been told, and Dejan Kovacevic has reported, the Pirates have budgeted 100 million for payroll this year. Doesn’t mean the GM will use it all, but it’s available.

I’m showing you right here some of what get’s considered when a budget is formulated, admittedly for a cheapskate organization like Pittsburgh.

The first thing to understand, guys who are good, but not great, they probably get dealt before Arb 3, and if the Pirates have any interest in keeping them longer, much like Hayes, Reynolds and Keller, the extension will come either right before arb or after year 1.

David Bednar will either sign an affordable extension for 3-4 years this offseason, or this will likely be his last year in black and gold, feel me? They won’t want to pay his Arb 3, unless he isn’t more valuable in which case they wouldn’t want to pay him the same to not be their closer.

All of this to explain, while it sounds great to get Bubba and Harrington and Ashcraft and Burrows up here along with crazy dreams like Termarr Johnson jumping two levels and helping here this year, you have to be thinking about what this does to the ability to retain some of what you do have now.

Say all 5 of those players come up and earn 1 year of service time. Well, you’ve made sure that they all come up in 2028 for arbitration. And I just listed off a whole bunch of guys who would be on Arb 2 or 3 by then right? So if you can avoid using one of these guys, or two, you can feather out when those cost rises come.

If you want to avoid salary dumps, you need judicious extensions, and more young talent pushing aside and making expendable, some guys who are getting costly.

ALL of this, is the answer for why guys like Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe, you know, guys with one or two years left, get dealt.

There’s a lot of assumption and projection involved here. None of it is written in stone. Look, I didn’t even mention Jack Suwinski, and he could very well put his name back in this hat. Davis or Endy or Bart could flop. Point is, it’s never as simple as don’t spend, won’t spend. Sometimes it’s will spend, but only as much as lawyers tell me I have to and even then I sure hope I don’t have to.

5. Polar Plunge

I never ask for money. Not for the writing anyway, but I’m doing the Polar Plunge this February 22nd to benefit The Special Olympics.

If you’ve ever wanted to support my writing and asked me to create a virtual tip jar, well, consider this one that benefits people who need it more than I do.

Thanks, and even if you can’t, or don’t want to donate, I’d love it if you’d share with others.

I also promise to not make this a regular thing, but it’s important to me.

https://give.specialolympicspa.org/fundraiser/5991053

Pirates Returning from Injury in 2025, and What to Expect from Each

1-5-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

We should learn lessons from things we watch. I mean, we certainly would like to expect that the coaches will right?

It just feels like year after year we continue to ignore what losing a season of competition does to guys. Someone had Tommy John done early in the year before, most fans will see their ETA for return in the following year and as regular updates about their progress dry up, you start to see more and more fans stop thinking of them as anything less than a player who essentially time traveled from where they were when they went down to where they’ll be in February.

That’s rarely how this works.

So let’s go through what’s coming back and discuss each of their situations.

Dauri Moreta

Dauri Moreta had his UCL procedure in Spring last year, and I’d imagine the rainbow and unicorn projections for his return will be placed sometime in May or June of 2025.

The first thing I’ll say here is, this would be freakishly fast, but as I understand it, there are degrees of severity when it comes to UCL (AKA Tommy John) and the recovery for those different levels can range anywhere from 12 to even 20 months. Moreta’s case was on the lower level.

So it’s not unreasonable to expect him to pitch again by that timeline, but Dauri isn’t some long tenured veteran arm. The team is going to want to see him perform in the minors at least a little.

Best Case: Moreta returns sometime in late June and gives the club 20-25 appearances out of the pen.

Worst Case: He returns but it takes a bit longer to warm to the task or regain full strength, then you’re looking at late July, early August and maybe 10-15 appearances. Even that is a bit disingenuous, obviously worst case for all of these will be a reoccurrence of the injury.

Bottom line here with Moreta, don’t look at him like some cape wearing returning savior of the bullpen. Look at him as a reinforcement you hope can pitch in as the season plays out, but for sure not someone you leave a spot for while you wait.

Endy Rodriguez

Another UCL recovery guy, and while not a pitcher, let’s just say a guy with no position written in stone and a switch hitter, this is simply not a conventional recovery path.

The established timelines for this procedure are well defined for pitchers, but for position players, much more murky. There are recent examples of just insane returns to action we’ve seen recently in the league, like Bryce Harper or Shohei Ohtani, but there are a couple things there that make them not really relevant to Endy’s situation.

First and easiest, he’s already taken longer than either of those guys so that comp has sailed.

Couple reasons for that. Harper has throughout his career been a notoriously fast healer, and Shohei has already been through the procedure before, so he knew what he could do while recovering in fact while he played all of 2024, he just started throwing in August. If either of these players had been switch hitters (Like Endy), they’d have been limited to only hitting from one side for a while.

Here are Endy’s biggest hurdles to overcome.

  • Switch hitting will take time to return, he just started before the season ended.
  • He won’t be able to find a spot on this club until he can throw. If it’s at catcher, believe it or not it will require a throwing regiment, not as involved as pitchers go through, but not insignificant either.
  • He was never entrenched in MLB, meaning, this isn’t a guy who you’re going to just plop back in MLB to figure it out, he’s going to have to at least show signs of the types of performances that got him called up in the first place.

Best Case: He shows up in Spring swinging the bat well. If the bat shows up, the team will have a much easier time finding a spot. Throwing progression should at least have him ready to throw the ball back to the pitcher 140 times and the ability to uncork some throws to second base.

Worst Case: He sputters offensively. Let’s not forget, he largely struggled in AAA and his brief time in the Majors wasn’t super impressive either.

The truth is, as painful as it sounds, Endy through no fault of his own has been taken from promising rookie back to promising prospect by way of missing a year of action. Anything could happen with him this year, he could show up in camp and just look like a world beater, or, he could simply need us and the team to have some patience.

Johan Oviedo

Johan is a physical freak, this was true before he got here, he’s just built like a horse and he attacked rehab like it was a new hobby he always wanted to try out. That said, his procedure was on the severe side, and this isn’t a recovery that “want to” is going to accelerate by much.

He’s had a role in parts of 4 MLB seasons, both as a reliever and a starter, and for what it’s worth, he’s recovering as a starter would. The difference is like training to be a marathon runner vs a sprinter.

His procedure was performed last winter so his timeline is different than the 70% of UCL examples out there who had theirs in the Spring.

Best Case: Johan really could be ready in Spring. I sincerely doubt that would be to carry a starter’s load. To me, if they ultimately only want to use him as a starter, you’re looking at a month in the minors, maybe more. If you want to use him as a reliever, I could see him filling almost the Luis Ortiz role from early on in 2024, start out in the pen when he’s deemed fully healthy and ready, and work his way back to starting.

Worst Case: He isn’t ready in Spring, then he could be easily looking at more of a May-July return and almost for sure a full on bullpen role for the season.

Now, he could still have a very successful season, can even still be a major part of this team and rotation moving forward, but for this year, there will be no way he doesn’t have inning restrictions. And I’d think after what some called recklessly piling innings on him at the end of 2023, we’re likely looking at a very careful use here.

Truthfully, that’s what would be best for the player if you ask me.

Note, I’m not saying that’s what has to be best for the team. I think Johan would be best used as a leverage reliever this year. To me, with innings restrictions, I’d rather let this kid cut it loose and help that bullpen out. After this year, say he’s thrown 50-60 innings, send him into the offseason looking to build back up and compete for 2026.

There’s no way to avoid the reality that some of these “elite” starting prospects are going to wind up as bullpen arms. Johan isn’t exempt from that reality, just because he had a really nice season starting for the Bucs.

This year, much like 2023, Johan could fill a role in a unit that really needs him. Then it was as a starter, now it might be as a shut down bullpen arm who can give you 2 or 3 innings.

Hunter Stratton

It was a brutal injury to a system success story that had been unfolding all season long. This is a guy taken in the 16th round back in 2017, and he had finally started to look like something really useful.

36 appearances and a 3.58 ERA with a penchant for not walking guys and getting his share of strike outs too.

Exactly the kind of “system wins” a team like Pittsburgh needs to get a lot more of. Not every player that makes the league and contributes has to be taken in the first 3 or 4 rounds you know. Maybe you don’t, we almost never see it play out here after all.

It’s one thing when Carmen Mlodzinski does this, he was supposed to as a Comp pick and virtual first rounder. When the organization produces a Hunter Stratton who the team brought back on a minor league deal as he continues to recover, that’s an unexpected victory.

Sorry, that’s a bit of a tangent from the subject at hand.

Best Case: He recovers normally and maybe pitches for the big club sometime in July. That’s the very top end of his 7-10 month recovery timeline. Technically it’s June, but I’m padding it by a month.

Worst Case: His recovery looks more like the back side of that timeline and he’s then a long shot for September which would set up a weird decision for both player and team as to how to proceed in 2026.

I’d love to see him scratch and claw his way back here. It’s selfish, but he’s a good kid who’s really worked his ass off to become an MLB player. He can help this team in an area of need.

Ke’Bryan Hayes

There is arguably none more important.

Now, I personally have adjusted my expectations for Hayes. I’ll no longer be looking for 20 homeruns, and I’ll no longer be considering him a middle of the order bat.

He can prove me wrong, it’s not like the skills aren’t in there, I’m just done expecting it.

I now expect a defensive stalwart, 7 to 10 homeruns and a decent on base 6 or 7 hitter type.

That’s me, not what I think the Pirates will expect or do with him. The back has been an issue for seasons now. Not admitting what it was doing to his at bats or finding a way to address it has created an uncomfortable situation to say the least.

Best Case: Hayes and the team have both discovered a treatment and path forward and everyone involved embraces it fully. The very best thing that could happen is Ke’Bryan Hayes is healthy, and plays excellent defense while contributing offensively even a little over league average. That’s what 7 million a year looks like on the open market, that’s what makes it an ok signing as opposed to one you’re stuck with.

Worst Case: The back is still an issue, both sides grow more frustrated with how each are handling it and it leads to having him play through it and it looks a lot like 2024 over at 3B. He doesn’t make enough to call this an albatross, even here, but if he winds up playing to such a level that he’s un-tradable, chances are you don’t want him to be on your roster either.

This is a big year for Hayes and the Pirates. I don’t think the defense if played as it was in 2024 is enough to just call him your starter, regardless of the paycheck. Especially if the offense looks just as effected by the back issues.

There really is no option but to see what happens here. I haven’t liked the team’s comments on the subject really. I mean, they say the right things, but you still come out of it with the same shoulder shrug I’m giving you right here. They simply have to see. The saving grace is they have at least some interesting options and some are even proven out defensively to be near his equal.

If the Pirates have to prepare for life without Hayes, hey, they almost have 2 full seasons of it under their belts due to his IL stints. What nobody can prepare for is the Hayes trying to play through something purgatory we had to endure before they finally pulled the plug.

This one is going to not feel good all year. Every slump will have people questioning the back, but he’s just going to be a guy who slumps, like everyone else regardless. Trust comes hard for a guy with an injury prone label, especially if what they do isn’t elite when they are healthy.

There are other guys recovering from bumps and bruises or just getting past something by another offseason, but none that warrant individual attention. It’s a safe assumption that guys like Bednar, Cruz, Cutch, Falter, Jones, Mlodzinski and on and on, will all show up to camp in “the best shape of their lives”.

Believe it or Not, The Pirates Aren’t in a Bad Place

1-3-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Hoo boy, write a headline like that, and brace yourself for the barrage of comments that are sure to come right? Those of you who read my stuff, stick with me until I land the plane, you’ll get it.

I mean, it’s not firing on all cylinders either mind you.

This offseason has been painted as some kind of last straw, a time of desperation, a chance to change the course of a ship that clearly was headed for the jagged shores ahead.

I’m sorry, regardless of your patience level, it’s none of those things.

It’s another year of progression. Another year of growing interesting talent into serviceable and hopefully solid major league players.

The only thing that’s really changed this offseason is more fans decided the team should be firmly in the playoff hunt and because we’re people, we all know exactly how that needs to happen.

Let’s cut this thing down to the root.

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates have a better team and record in 2025 than they had in 2024? My answer is yes, with zero hesitation and next to know guessing about what else they might bring in yet.

In fact, just logically, let’s set aside record. I say that simply because a large percentage of you believe, or at least say often enough to have me roll my eyes, that Derek Shelton is so horrible at his job, the team you see on paper should be far and away better than the record they’ve achieved.

Let’s forget about the GM too. Again, many of you believe he’s so horrible, such a terrible evaluator of talent that even a half competent GM would surely have them measurably better by now.

Now we’re just talking players.

2020 started with the remnants of a bridge year that turned into 4 years of failing. Cherington was hired and decided to wait and see what he had for the most part, after honoring Starling Marte’s trade request that surely would have been fulfilled following 2020 anyhow.

2021, more players were moved out for low level prospects and it started to become more clear who was and wasn’t part of the plan. The team had a terrible 2020 with some talent still lingering. 2021 was almost the same relative result with even less.

2022 Many of the holdover prospects simply had to be tried out. Something that continued from 2021. Wil Craig, Cole Tucker as examples. Waiver claims filled holes, again as they hoped to be below mediocre. Still, they’d now locked in a couple players for what to the Pirates were long term contracts, and some of the acquired talent began involving themselves. Still stunk. My god did it ever look like they were going to never get the pitching together.

Those were all sifting years. Years meant to post poor performing teams that net big draft picks. As gross as that is to say out loud, it’s the truth, and by the way, it worked. The only reason we think this team should be better now is because they sucked and got Paul Skenes.

I say that with Henry Davis yet to emerge, Nick Gonzales just finding himself, Jared Jones looking to follow up what normally had no chance of being overshadowed as a rookie performance, and more starting to matriculate up here and stick.

They’ve cast off shot after shot at reclamation projects, and stop gaps, and all of that ground was laid in those first few painful seasons. The only good thing about 2020 was maybe that we only had to watch 60 games of that puke of a team, but even that came at a cost, development.

In 2023, it was time to start seeing what some of these guys could do. Cutch comes back, Cruz is looking to really take off, Keller is emerging, they signed an older but effective first baseman, but they still didn’t have enough pitching to make it real. Even before Cruz was lost for the season, it was clear they were short and still had some more sifting to do.

2024, more of the same, except different injuries to guys you wanted to see more from and a few big names returning from injury themselves too. Again, not enough, in fact so not enough the record remained the same, but something else happened on the way there, the team had suddenly replaced all their “shots at good”, all their “reclaim” guys, with real prospects, who had options, multiple places they could play, varying degrees of MLB success and failure. AND biggest of all, they had for the first time since the middle of the last decade, a starting rotation. A good one. One that wasn’t built from free agents that figure to be gone in a year or two.

We aren’t all the way to the 2025 season yet.

I mean, I roughly put together their starting outfit up there in the chart, but that’s right now, a lot can change still, new options can become available.

Even if they don’t. Which again, I don’t think is going to happen. I’m holding firm this team will hit 100 million this year, even if it’s dragging that figure across the finish line when the season is in the books.

I still see this team in a good place to progress. Not a favorite for anything, but a young team backed by more young options with upside and time to develop yet.

They have a rotation that should be strong to start and has a shot to be downright shut down if they get some more prospect love in 2025.

They have enough pitching to have some of it overflow into the pen, and while I’m sure they’ll add more, they have more optionable talent in that room than they’ve had in quite some time.

The hitters have a new coach, and while much of it under performed last year, it’s hard to think Cruz won’t take a bit of a step, Reynolds won’t repeat his performance at least and everywhere else, I think they’re 2 if not 3 deep for players who could wrestle away a job.

Do I think they need more? Oh hell yeah. If you want to get this writer to tell you this is a playoff team, I need to see bare minimum a corner outfielder who can hit 20 homeruns and at least a left handed reliever with some degree of pedigree.

Even so, say they just sit on their hands, this team has room under their collective ceilings to get there, I just wouldn’t call it likely.

The other side of the coin is their collective floors make me believe 75 wins is a pretty logical landing spot for the worst I see this unit performing if healthy.

Yell and scream about the owner all you want. Claim the GM is a boob, that’s fine. The manager is a world class moron, ok.

Despite all that, I really do not see a team that is going to take a step back here.

Don’t get me wrong, they aren’t set up to absorb an injury to Cruz, Skenes, or Reynolds, but I also wouldn’t see one of those injuries lead to Cal Mitchell, Chase De Jong or Bligh Madris coming up to fill in.

They can’t win without those 3 players, nothing significant anyway, but they have far more depth than they’ve had in a long time.

You have to have some picks and pick ups emerge as stars.

They’ve gotten one of those so far, and it’s Paul Skenes.

They’ve got a few who will continue to write their stories this year. Mlodzinski, Gonzales, Triolo, Jones, Oviedo, Suwinski, Davis, Endy, Horwitz.

I’m not saying all those guys will do any such thing, maybe 3 or 4 of them settle in at MLB regular who floats around the league for a while like Kevin Newman and Josh Bell are. But if a couple of them do, everything starts to look a lot smarter than it did yesterday.

Again, I happen to believe they should have replaced the manager. But look at those opening day setups again, do you really think he should have won a lot more games than he did? Last year he gave you the very best argument he should have been fired.

I still think they improve. Regardless.

I want to stress, this isn’t me saying I’m happy it’s where it is. I’m not. I hoped they could have signed better free agents if only to move them at the deadline and accelerate the prospect load they had to work with. I wanted them to sign some longer term guys at strategic positions of need in the hopes they could develop someone pressure free to eventually succeed the incumbent.

I wanted them to push kids up to the league a bit earlier and live with the growing pains from them as opposed to watching guys like Kai Tom take up space.

It’s not like I think it’s been a perfect journey.

I’m just saying, even after a bad road trip, where I blow a tire, get two tickets for speeding and one of the kids pissed their pants, when I see the beach, I’m gonna sigh, crack a beer and let all that shit go to appreciate what I do have.

You’re right about every criticism you have. From development to drafting to coaching and spending, you’re right.

But your team is still on the rise.

Maybe, nah, scratch that, definitely, not as fast as you want, maybe never as far as you want, but it is on the rise, because even if by accident, they’ve put together a group that really could grow together, backed by replacements for pieces that don’t fit correctly.

And it will be for a minute.

Even if they fire the GM and everyone below him after this season, this isn’t going into a full blown rebuild. There’s a decent, if imbalanced toward pitching base laid here, there’s no need like there absolutely was in 2019. There was not only not enough back then, there was next to nothing coming anytime soon. That’s not what this is. Take comfort in that at least.

Bucs Prospect Watch – Nick Cimillo

1-3-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

One of the prospects I will be keeping close tabs on as the 2025 Minor League Baseball season opens is 1B/DH prospect Nick Cimillo.

Cimillo was selected in the 16th round of the 2022 MLB Entry Draft out of Rutgers University. In his redshirt Junior season with the Scarlet Knights Cimillo led the Big Ten in batting average
(.385), slugging percentage (.707), and OPS (1.199). Before transferring to the Big Ten Cimillo
was the 2019 Freshman of the Year and then a two time Preseason Player of the Year in the
MAAC for the Manhattan Jaspers.

Post-draft Cimillo had a ho-hum small sample size debut across the Complex and A ball levels.

2023 saw Cimillo begin to adjust to pro-ball where his final MiLB line was quite compelling.
However, much of this intriguing output was accumulated at the A level as a 22-23 year old.
Admittedly, this does not usually bode well as a player his age is often considered “too
advanced” for the level. After acknowledging this caveat as being a real thing to take note of, it is always better to see a player succeed.

In 2024 Cimillo continued to cook, but this time in A+ Greensboro. Here again we must take this with a slight grain of salt. Greensboro is one of the more hitter friendly environments AND he was also nearly 2 years older than the bulk of his competition in the South Atlantic League.

Nonetheless, what Cimillo did across his 223 PAs in A+ & his 185 PAs for AA Altoona was
eyebrow raising. The signifier stats that I would note are:
HR: 21
ISO: .240
BA/OBP/SLG: .260/.376/.500
OPS: .876
wRC+: 146
wOBA: .398
xDamage: .445

To temper this slightly the split between A+/AA is somewhat stark. Just as his promotion in 2023 saw his performance dip upon arriving in the higher level, we saw it again last season.
Obviously it would be preferred to see that type of play continue immediately, this is not terribly uncommon either. Despite his production being somewhat stifled at Altoona there were some interesting developments that came with it.

Most notably, Cimillo’s plate approach and swing decisions actually improved at the higher
level. To state it simply, he began to swing more often at pitches in the zone. It is entirely
possible that his lower BABIP, .333 in A+ versus .256 in AA, could help to explain this in part.
Most likely not the whole story but I am inclined to believe it to be part of the reason. Park
factors also likely to have played a part in this given his profile is that of a lift & pull one and Altoona’s more pitching friendly confines probably killed some production where he would have benefited in A+ Greensboro.

So what exactly do the Pirates have in Cimillo? Right now, it is difficult to say. At the very least I see an interesting, albeit older 1B prospect that checks several boxes in a positive manner.

Namely; good swing decisions, good quality of contact, good power, and an approach that is
geared to do damage in the air. 2025 will be crucial to find out what exactly Cimillo can do.
Given that there is no public batted ball data for A+ or AA, we won’t get a fully fleshed out
picture of the bat until he reaches AAA (hopefully in 2025). What I will be watching closely is if Cimillo can continue his trend of producing at a high clip in his second stint at the level.

Should that happen, the team might just have something at a position of need.
Oftentimes it is easy to dismiss “older” prospects that do not develop quickly. Nick Cimillo is not a finished product yet but there is enough meat on the bone here for me to have become a big fan of his. If he begins the season clubbing away, I think we will see a little more hype build here.

Steel City Pirates Q&A Session – Ringing in the New Year

12-31-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Tons of great questions this time, thanks everyone, enjoy!

Question 1 – Karena Graves

What does the future look like for Liover Peguero? Will it be in a Pirates uniform?

First thing to say here is Happy Birthday Liover! The youngster officially turns 24 today. Peguero suffers from being an international draft signing. By rule it tends to force them to either have a meteoric rise to the Bigs or languish on a patient team’s 40-man while they finish their development. More often than not, it adds up to someone else taking a shot on a kid that used to have some promise.

All I can really “know” about Liover is that in the baseball world, he’s still plenty young enough to emerge and he showed signs of filling out his body a bit last year. He’s probably their best bet at an everyday short stop before you really get deep into the system and discount every option currently in the MLB locker room.

Last year really wasn’t a bad year for him. If he were a draft pick, selected at like 22 years of age and put a season like that together, he’s probably not on the 40-man, but starting to make a push to get there. Instead, he’s likely on his last year with the Pirates unless he makes a return to MLB and puts together something that resembles traction at the MLB level.

He has an option remaining, so holding him in the minors for 2024 is probably just as likely as it is smart, but if he doesn’t do anything with it, solid chance he doesn’t hold a 40-man spot hostage beyond 2024.

I don’t see much trade value here, if only because teams don’t like trading for guys that force their hand. If he doesn’t force his way on the team this year, he becomes Diego Castillo or Hoy Park real quick, and that would be how his future looks in my mind.

But there’s a lot of if there. His best bet is the Pirates lack of established short stops, but like I mentioned in my roster recap the other day, I am worried he’s bulking himself out of the position.

Best I can do my friend.

Question 2 – David Wald

Who do you think the long term answers are at SS and RF?

Define long. I mean right now the best bet at something that moves the needle internally at short stop is probably Konnor Griffin, but he’s 18 and it’s likely to be 3 or 4 years before he’s even a pipe dream and that’s assuming he sticks at SS, he could just as easily be an outfielder. It’s not going to be popular, but I really believe if the Pirates moved Jared Triolo to short, he has a floor that lands right around Jordy Mercer and a ceiling of Jay Bell. Doesn’t mean he’d reach those heights, but I’m 100% positive the glove will play, and convinced he will become at least a slightly above average hitter.

Right field believe it or not is harder. Even right now when most fans feel they have absolutely nobody internally for the position they have Jack, Cook, Yorke, hell they could even use Endy or Henry out there yet, maybe even Triolo. I’m not sure you can get long term here, without discussing the internal options. They aren’t going to sign anyone for 4-5 years as a free agent. If they trade for someone you could stamp immediately as an answer, solid chance they have like 2-3 years left of team control left.

At this stage of things this is why so many fans are frustrated. Ideally you’d like to know all these answers, but bluntly, I can’t even tell you Spencer Horwitz, acquired with every intention of being the first baseman for the foreseeable future is going to pan out, or if they’re just going to be holding a spot for Bryan Reynolds later.

Question 3 – Dan Holden

Everyone is pissed they traded Ortiz. But let’s be honest here. Oviedo was the guy between him and Ortiz. One of the two of them was gonna be the odd man out. Thoughts on this and them acquiring Horwitz?

While I’m sure your first statement is a bit of hyperbole, I don’t get the impression everyone is pissed. They traded a promising young pitcher for a promising young hitter, both with a few indications they could take off or watch their warts grow into full blown goiters. Johan Oviedo wasn’t on the trade block, and it’s largely because nobody knows what a guy coming off UCL will look like, and even if he comes back healthy and strong, you’re still looking at a limited player for 2025. Nowhere near the value Ortiz brought to the market, right now. If you were a team that needed help right now, Ortiz was the more valuable, and sure bet. They also both had options, so odd man out is a bit of a misnomer. Honestly, one or both could have wound up in the pen pretty easy here.

I wrote this a while ago, but my thoughts hold up pretty firm.

Question 4 – John @JGor493

With KeBryan Hayes reoccurring back issues, what do you do with him or how would you manage him going forward?

I personally would take full advantage of Jared Triolo and have Hayes start 4-5 times a week. But I’m shooting at a target I kinda think I know is over there after you switch off the lights. The Pirates feel they’ve come up with a solution for his back, and strengthening exercises they believe will help him stay stronger, to be completely fair, they’ve thought that before.

As I understand it, and I’m going to put this as delicately as I can because it’s entirely based on context clues and murmurs, Hayes has not fully embraced their previous programs.

He’s also allowed it to effect him at the plate for weeks before mentioning it as an issue for his swing.

Now, You, me and Dupree all see it on TV. The dude can’t get the rotation he needs to get to turn on pitches, and the Pirates specifically mentioned this as an issue they have to target to make him effective.

I don’t think anyone could possibly trust he’ll be healthy. I’m sure they all hope he will be, because if he is, he’s a guy who can really make a difference. The leader of the defense, and an above average bat, when he’s right. When he isn’t, well, at the very least you don’t lose anything with Triolo defensively and even his underdeveloped bat is on par with an incapable to twist his hips Hayes.

So at the very least, they have a good plan for what he should do. They think he’s on board with it this time in full. And they have a pretty good backup plan.

My goal would be to have him put a good season on tape if possible and deal him in the offseason so someone else can stress about keeping him on the field. If he really takes off, I’ll fully retract this and hope the issue is just solved.

I say all this as someone with a chronic back problem who sneezed in the car and had to call my 22 year old son to help me get out of the car and into the ER a few years back. LOL

Question 5 – @OpenedCreation

Who do you realistically think pirates add as their starting RF? Name 5 FA/trade options Do you think Chandler makes opening day? What do you think we’ll do for our lack of LHP in the pen?

First, let’s do the name 5 FA/trade options, I gave you 3 in 5 Thoughts yesterday. Check that out. I think honestly they’d love to have Bryan Reynolds in RF, it’d be better for him defensively, but they have to have someone better to toss in LF too. As my answer in 5 thoughts was to address RF, or OF in general, that will also serve to answer the first part.

Obviously they’ll sign at least 1 LHP for the pen. Maybe more, maybe in a trade. Relief pitchers are hard to figure, there are like 3-4 names that get exciting, but 5-6 nobody here has ever heard of who could help too.

I won’t rule out returning Borucki or even Beeks, they liked both of them and Borucki was so banged up last year, I can’t pretend he just reverted.

Question 6 – Alex @HIP_HOP_JORGE

At C, Bart almost has to be the OD starter. I still think Henry has a chance to break out. Hoping Hague can unlock him. Endy seems like he is the best athlete of the trio and has time in the OF and 2B in the minors. How do you see the Bart/Davis/Endy dynamic working out?

I agree, Bart almost for sure starts. Henry really took a big step defensively last year and the bat has really seen limited time, even less of that time healthy. Solid chance he starts as the backup, maybe even part time DH. Endy probably needs a bit of time in AAA, coming back from UCL complicates the catching stuff, but the team seems to still have interest in and feel it’s important to get him back behind the dish.

A big part of this that nobody seems to want to embrace is how very little Joey Bart has managed to play in a given season in his history. He topped out at 90 games. If he plays more than 100 this year, I’d be almost shocked. There is room for another catcher who isn’t playing once or twice a week. On top of that, Bart isn’t exactly a stalwart back there. Take Davis and Endy out of the conversation, you could see Jason Delay man the backup role early on while they fine tune what to do with the others.

Endy’s versatility makes it almost all about the bat. Henry needs to hit and then it’s about putting him somewhere he produces the most for the club, for me, that’s behind the dish. Bart, to me is a nice story that I’m still going to watch develop.

It’s a bit of blue balls here brother but honestly, when these 3 all look like players I need in my lineup, I’ll worry about how.

Question 7 – Karena Graves

Until we hear otherwise, I’m assuming the Pirates are one of 20 teams to reach out to Roki Sasaki. No reports of a meeting, but one could still happen and it could even take place in Pittsburgh. We all read the update provided by his agent, Joel Wolf, last night. What are you hearing on the local level? Are the Pirates in it or does no Paul Skenes, or any player, hurt their chances?

I believe the last update from Mr. Wolf mentioned Roki was down to 10, and I know for sure the Pirates reached out. They’ve also met, at the Winter Meetings informally, but still, they’ve been in contact on this.

I’ll answer as best I can, because I’m not sure I understand the part about Paul Skenes. Yes, I believe they’re in it, I certainly don’t think Skenes hurts their chances, if anything, he’d be the biggest selling point. Sasaki as stated last night “wants to be great” and has said all along he wanted to be part of a “great pitching program”. The Pirates already had a really nice setup on the mound coaching wise. Oscar Marin would have a job tomorrow if they let him go, Strom is a huge get with Championship experience and a proven track record for helping even future Hall of Famers find more in their game. And pitching on a staff with Paul Skenes is attractive, especially to someone who’s clearly shy about the limelight.

If he’s sincere about wanting a good situation, with plenty of opportunity, and less media scrutiny, Pittsburgh is a great choice. If it’s true that he’s reading social media and ruling teams out based on how the fans have treated certain players like we heard as to his thoughts on Philly, well, here’s hoping he isn’t on Facebook or X anyway.

Question 8 – Nick Cammuso @npc210

Do you still see a trade for a legitimately good bat, one that moves the needle even a little, as a possibility this offseason?

No. My answer to you specifically is no, because your threshold for moving the needle is higher than mine. I just want a helpful bat. I’ve seen you put a want or requirement on this being a middle of the order bat.

I see one of those truly available in Luis Robert Jr., and the White Sox still reportedly want an insane package, and remain unwilling to eat any of this contract. I just don’t see it.

To me, the best way to acquire something needle moving would be to trade a MLB talent for an MLB talent. Mitch Keller for someone with a near identical financial commitment could make sense, but it would be hard to find and significantly weaken a rotation that in my mind would now need a veteran addition, which isn’t cheap. So in other words, it’s going to cost money one way or another, so go get one.

Most likely, they take a swing at a mid tier free agent and hope Jack Suwinski rebounds, which I really do see as feasible.

If the Padres really want to shed salary, I suppose I’d be interested in someone like Luis Arraez, it would answer the leadoff spot, but it also would likely take Nick Gonzales out of the lineup, so they’d lose potential pop for on base and average, and it only really helps for a year.

I’ve suggested trying to get someone like Coby Mayo for Jared Jones. That might work for both clubs. I’ve suggested Keller for Byron Buxton, but he might play 100 games a season and again, you’d need another pitcher.

I just don’t see a lot of available players out there who move the needle that could be had for prospects alone, unless you believe Taylor Ward is that type, which I honestly don’t.

Question 9 – PNCYark @YARKulation

Lots of talk from you about the internal options lately and I totally agree these guys can make a big impact in 2025+. Davis Jack even Yorke Cook Endy but they have to be fall back option if all else fails addition wise and not the actual plan for opening day right?

In many ways, there approach is like a scene out of The A-Team. A phone book (something old people like Yark and I used to look up phone numbers with) alone isn’t strong. It’s just thin sheets of paper, but stack them up and they become a bullet proof protection system you can drive a van through a hail of machine gun fire with.

I think they’d like to bring in help, I even think they will, but I don’t expect them to bring in someone that they plan to block anyone from overtaking them. If anything, they’d be buying time to become more sure about that laundry list of players and they’d hope the entire time that group played so well they could turn around and shop whomever they brought in.

One or two year signing of a mid tier free agent or a trade for a rental using low level prospects probably creates the answer.

Question 10 – Jim Maruca

If the Pirates aren’t able to add a significant bat through FA or trade, can the existing roster make a playoff run? I’m thinking they can but I wonder if I’m placing unrealistic hopes on improvements through Matt Hague & Brent Strom etc.

I think so. But I put my hopes more on guys having some MLB time under their belts and an entire offseason to work on what ailed them last year.

A full season of Skenes with far less or even no restrictions. Jared Jones with more innings to give. A rebound from Keller, even a little. Cruz with his return from injury season behind him. A real honest to god first baseman with a solid contact bat from the left side. Hopefully a returning Hayes.

There’s a lot more to like about this team than there is to hate. If you read a rookies stats and assume that’s where the progression stops, yup, they’re screwed. If you read a rookies stats and saw ways they could improve or even signs they were in the process of doing so, you should probably have some hope.

I think the “playoff window” is open, right now. I think it’s gonna stay that way too, all on it’s own.

Getting beyond being in the conversation for a wild card, that’s where this team needs to be thinking about bolting on.

People are going to hate this, but that might not be this year. They still have some growth to knock out before this club is much more than a squeak in and see what you can do type. And I mean that even if they added a Robert Jr type. They’d still have to have a jump from some of these kids, period.

Question 11 – Bobby Nacho

Why do I put myself through this season after season? Don’t answer that, I know… Does Bubba get the chance to start the season with the team or does he start in the minors?

In a word, yes. Just like Jared Jones did, but I’d caution you, this rotation isn’t as wide open as it was last year, and remind that Jared Jones was absolutely flawless all Spring long. He quite literally made it so they’d look stupid if they made any other decision.

Bubba certainly has that kind of talent, but that’s still a lot to ask of a rookie with like what a month of AAA under his belt.

So, yes, he’ll get a chance, but I don’t think it’s as easy a path as someone like Mike Burrows or Braxton Ashcraft.

And that’s all if they don’t bring in a vet.

Question 12 – James Littleton

Do you ever get tired of dealing with comments from people that don’t even take the time to read your articles? What keeps you going?

Sure. I used to really get pissed about it. Mostly because the assumptions they made would lead others to assume my writing had been summed up accurately and it would spurn others to camp on with the same ignorance.

Then somewhere along the line something clicked with me. Anyone who would be “fooled” or led to comment on a comment as thought it was a Cliff’s note of my piece, clearly isn’t a reader either.

What keeps me going are the hundreds of people who do read and comment. And the thousands more who read and don’t comment at all. It’s even the group of people who direct message me instead of commenting so they don’t get attacked by some of the same pain in the asses you talked about in the first place.

Here’s the key though. I don’t care about being popular. I don’t care about being proven right over time. I don’t care if I’m flat out wrong. I care about the group of people that read and take something from it, even if it does nothing but make them think.

I’ve always wanted to just be an alternative for people who are tired of hearing more vulgar opinions based on the opinions of others. A place that arms you with as many things to think about a given subject as I can think of. Those who’d rather not read that, are not my concern. If I ever respond to them, I’m bored, and admittedly feel like picking on a mental midget for funsies.

Question 13 – John Geary

When are we going to hear about negotiations with ISE Baseball on a contract extension for Paul Skenes? I thought it should be one of their main concerns going into the offseason. The longer this takes and the more ridiculous Juan Soto type deals that are signed…Paul will be priced out of Pittsburgh even if we had a real baseball owner that cared at all about winning.

OK. First, unless the agent or the player talk about it, you’ll never hear about it. It does Ben and company no good to tell you they’re trying, because unless they think it’s close, they’re just dooming themselves to being asked about it every day for his entire tenure.

I do believe they’ll approach him, but let’s be very clear, there is no path to this getting done that wouldn’t require Paul Skenes to be very kind to the Pirates. I’ve outlined what a potential deal could look like in the past, but their single best leverage is that Paul will make far less than he would on the open market for the next 5 years.

Frankly, he already makes money in endorsements, his girlfriend is loaded, he has a signing bonus in his back pocket he didn’t have to blow while toiling in the minors, in other words, he’s not some struggling kid who you can paint a brighter picture for. At best, you can make his life a bit easier, and maybe sell him on a deal being insurance for injury.

Skenes really seems to believe he can win here. He doesn’t strike me as a naive kid, nor a salesman. Whatever Nutting and Cherington have been saying to him, he likes it and buys in.

The other thing about Paul that makes him a bit different, he really hasn’t fully let go of serving in the Air Force. Who knows what a career in baseball does to change that, but since pilots have an age they can’t fly beyond, we could be looking at a kid who intentionally hangs them up at like 30 or 31. Again, I’m not predicting it, I’m just taking his words with the gravity I’m sure at the time he meant them with.

Hopefully Travis Williams is crunching the numbers trying to convince Bob how much value having Skenes on the club would bring, because let’s be real, this would be asking him to do something he’s never done at this scale.

Last thing I’ll say is, Paul Skenes was “priced out” from the moment he was drafted and everyone knew he was real. This will take a bunch of things that don’t happen often in sports or more accurately Pittsburgh. An owner with faith his investment will be rewarded. A player who not only believes in himself, but in a franchise that hasn’t won it all since 1979. And finally a player who cares a lot more about Pittsburgh than his bank account, because while I’m sure they’ll offer him something they’ve never offered another living soul financially speaking, it won’t touch what his agent will whisper in his ear he could get if he rides this thing out.

Question 14 – Ed Fleming

What’s the ceiling for Cruz as a CF? I think it could be Andy Van Slyke IF he can reach his potential.

Mentioning Andy makes me think you’re referring to defense first because frankly, Cruz has more power potential if he decided to just use his right arm to swing. Defensively, the early metrics are impressive, in little over two months of sporadic usage out there he managed to generate a positive defensive WAR and StatCast loves him out there. He’s getting to balls easily that would have been heroic for anyone else they’ve had out there in a while.

I think the lack of focus many people point to for him will be somewhat mitigated, but I also think his extreme belief in himself might cause him to take some risks that burn him a bit, but it might just create some splash defensive plays too.

Yeah, Andy is my all time favorite baseball player, so it’s hard for me to admit, but Cruz is a superior athlete, if he really dives in and wants to be a premier defender, yeah, he could rise to that level, for sure.

Question 15 – @DilfMagic

Why has there been so little talk about SS? Are the Pirates content with IKF there? His bat was awful here and he hasn’t been an everyday SS since ’22. Thanks!

Content? I mean, they’re just as content with that as they are starting the season with Joey Bart as the starting catcher. Both can do the jobs, neither is a perfect player.

I don’t see any short stops either available in trade or free agency that really excite me, but there has been some talk about the team being in on International Free Agent from Kiwoom Heroes IF Kim Hye-Seong, and while I can’t ever camp on to assuming the offense will travel from inferior league to the best in the world, he could more than handle the position and would absolutely start.

IKF was having a great offensive season until he was injured, and after being acquired while still on the IL jumped right back to the Bigs after a very short stint in the minors on rehab assignment. The hitting coach he credited with his performance in 2024 with Toronto, yup, Matt Hague.

Do I think he’s going to be some elite hitter? No. But I do think he can hold his own.

Question 16 – Dan Metzinger @Metz30

Are the Pirates really satisfied with Suwinski in RF for 2025? No urgency in free agency for any position it seems.

This is very in the spirit of question 15. Satisfied with Suwinski? I mean, he’s going to get to compete for a shot at being on the roster, so is Palacios, so is Yorke, and Cook and Endy? It’s also December 31st, so I don’t think I can say that for anyone who finished the season in AAA.

Ben Cherington is on record that they still want to add an outfielder, so I have to believe they’re still looking. Will it impress you? Likely not. Will it prevent you from the travesty of a young player getting another crack in the Bigs, well, I’ll personally be hiding under the blanket hoping to avoid that horror. Everyone knows after a player fails once they should be sent to Korea.

I’m having a little fun here with you, but Jack isn’t guaranteed anything, but he could very well end up being the best solution they have.

Question 17 – Adam Yarkovsky

With the current trend of turning backend relievers back into starters (Reynaldo Lopez Clay Holmes Hoffman etc) do you think the Pirates could use Burrows and Ashcraft as high leverage pen arms with an eye towards moving back to SP in 2026+?

Sure, I think that might be hard to avoid actually. Some probably fit this bill better than others though. For instance, I think Ashcraft is far more equipped to be in the pen, whereas Burrows has a very projectable ability to see lineups multiple times.

It’s smart to mention guys already on the 40-man, I don’t think you’d see this with a guy who needed added, they’d probably just let them keep working in the minors instead.

Absolutely though. The biggest of these might be Johan Oviedo, he’s going to be limited anyway, might as well make it easier to manage.

Question 18 – @JeffreyKaiser13

I’d like to see the Bucs increase team speed on the bases. Any chance they can improve Bae’s OBP and find a home for him defensively?

I mean, there’s always a chance. I have a very hard time seeing what they can do with Bae. He doesn’t really have a corner outfielder arm, I personally hate him in the infield, and frankly, I just haven’t seen him try to use that speed on the bases. He looks scared to use his base stealing skills in the Majors and you also have to get on base to make it count, which he simply hasn’t.

Look, I see that same talent you do, I actually think a team with time could teach him to hit like Willy Mays Hayes, but truthfully, that’s kinda what he does in the minors, it’s what he does with his skills at this level that concern me.

I think he has just about as much chance of impacting this lineup as Alika Williams.

Question 19 – David Rosenberg

Was trading Luis Peralta for Jason Beeks the worst Ben trade that no one talks about?

I mean, I was pretty steamed about it last year, so was Anthony Murphy and Craig Toth. He was clearly emerging, and clearly Cherington saw a player who was about to need protected in the Rule 5 Draft who was only in AA, ignoring almost the entire season of performance he put on tape.

It was a bad move.

I understood wanting to add another lefty for the pen, Borucki’s injury really destroyed some of their plans and if they were indeed to win they needed someone. Could have and should have done better.