Ferguson, signed this past offseason to a 1-year deal, has been among the best in MLB at inducing soft contact with the 100th percentile average exit velocity (83.5 MPH), 100th percentile Hard Hit Rate (25.2%) and 97th percentile Barrel Rate (3.3%) all while posting a 2-2 record, 3.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 43.1 innings of work for the Bucs.
Despite the lofty ERA, much of that damage has been in his last few appearances as he hoisted a 2.61 ERA as recently as July 1st.
Coming back to Pittsburgh 19-year old Martinez, who has pitched 62.2 innings through 16 games at low-A ball with the Mariners, posting a 6.18 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 38 walks and 10 wild pitches but with 60 strikeouts as Martinez is a hard-throwing 2023 international signing out of Mexico who can touch 100.
He is 6’4 and pairs the fastball with a strong slider/changeup mix, which can help him to find success as he moves up so long as he can locate better along the way.
The Mariners are trading RHP Jeter Martinez to the Pirates for LHP Caleb Ferguson, per @JonathanMayo
Martinez ranked No. 21 in Seattle's system.
Big arm who has been up to 100 mph in the past but has struggled with strike-throwing. pic.twitter.com/qF2hEbLGfm
If the Pirates pitching factory can help Martinez streamline his delivery and throw strikes the way they have shown with many others that have come through the system in recent years, this may be a solid acquisition for a 1-year flyer deal.
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Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is on the move, as the 2023 Gold Glove winner heads to the Cincinnati Reds, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
BREAKING: The Cincinnati Reds are acquiring third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates, sources tell ESPN. Hayes is among the best defensive players in baseball and has five years of club control beyond this season.
Hayes, 28, has a .236/.279/.369 slash with two home runs and 36 RBIs in 369 at-bats in 2025, along with 16 defensive runs saved per Fielding Bible, which ranks fourth in MLB and first among third basemen.
Offense has been the biggest question mark of Hayes game since his arrival with the Pirates in 2020, with his best offensive season coming in 2023, where he posted a career best .762 OPS.
Great American Ball Park, the home of the Reds, is also much more favorable to right-handed hitters than PNC Park, so Cincinnati will hope to unlock some offensive upside from Hayes, who is under team control until 2031 with a club option in 2030 after inking an 8-year, $70-million extension with the Pirates in 2022.
In return, Pittsburgh is receiving shortstop prospect Sammy Stafura and lefty relief pitcher Taylor Rogers.
Full trade, per ESPN sources:
Cincinnati receives: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
Pittsburgh receives: SS prospect Sammy Stafura and RP Taylor Rogers
Stafura, 20, was ranked ninth on the Reds prospect list per MLB Pipeline, and for good reason.
The 2023 second round selection has been impressive this season with Single-A affiliate Daytona, posting a .262/.393/.411 slash with four home runs and 48 RBIs across 321 at-bats in 88 games.
Stafura’s .804 OPS is also a career-best for the young shortstop, a considerbale notch above his .753 mark in 2024 with Daytona. He’s also quite the base stealer as well, posting 59 stolen bases in his minor league career thus far.
Cincinnati opted to play Stafura at only shortstop throughout his time in the minors thus far, as he’s showcased good range and IQ at the position, indicating it could be his long-term home for his professional career. MLB Pipeline lists Stafura’s MLB ETA as 2027.
Rogers, 34, is a veteran reliever that comes to Pittsburgh in this deal, having stints with Minnesota, San Diego, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and now Pittsburgh.
Rogers has consistently been one of the better left-handed relief pitching options in baseball across his career, posting a 3.28 career ERA. He’s been impressive the last two seasons as well, even with age becoming a factor, posting a 2.40 ERA in 60 innings with the Giants in 2024 and a 2.45 ERA in 33 innings with the Reds this season.
Rogers features a sinker and sweeper mix, while occasionally using a four-seam fastball. The sweeper has been strong for Rogers this year, posting an opponent’s .177 batting average and .144 xBA along with a 34.8-percent whiff rate. The sinker tends to get beat up though, with a .441 opponent’s slugging percentage and just a 9.3-percent put away percentage attached to it.
Rogers is obviously not a long-term option for Pirates bullpen, but at the very least, he gives Pittsburgh a solid left-handed option for the remainder of 2025 as he’s slated for free agency at year’s end.
For Pittsburgh, the deal allows the Pirates to move off of Hayes and his contract, while Cincinnati greatly improves its infield defensively with a hope that Hayes can tap into his offense down the road.
All the best to Ke in Cincinnati – well, except when he faces the Pirates, that is.
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7-30-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Pirates are poised for their first road sweep of the season if they can keep rolling against San Francisco Giants’ long-time ace and 2-time All Star, Logan Webb, who is having another strong season as he holds a 9-8 record with a 3.38 ERA over an NL-best 135.2 innings pitched but hasn’t been nearly as effective lately.
After pitching to a 2.61 ERA over his first 18 starts with 127 strikeouts to just 24 walks, Webb is currently mired in one of the worst stretches of his career with a 7.36 ERA in July with an opponent batting average of .348 this month.
Regardless, Webb can turn things around at any time as he brings in a career of consistency on the bump, leading the senior circuit in innings pitched each of the past two seasons and finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting following the 2023 campaign.
Webb is able to get strikeouts at a high rate but excels at inducing ground balls (52.5%) utilizing a plus-extension with his low-90s sinker and mid-80s changeup each resulting in a 55% or higher ground ball rate.
While he dispatches the sinker/changeup mix against lefties, he adds in a mid-80s sweeper as his main secondary against righties with occasional low-90s 4-seam and cutter mixed in as well (less than 10% usage for each offering) but the main pitch to look for is his sinker, which Webb throws 36.3% of the time with a .285 xBA, .441 xSLG and which has resulted in 6 of his 10 home runs allowed.
Francisco Lindor | 20th Home Run
• Top 3rd | 1 out | leading 2-1 @ Giants • Solo HR (377 feet) • vs. Logan Webb | 1-2 count
Expect Webb to work in the zone (5.3% walk rate is among the best in MLB) and try to get opponents to rollover on the ball. Look for the sinker that hangs up and in against lefties or moves to the barrel against righties. He doesn’t get a ton of whiffs on the pitch so put the ball in play often enough and eventually, you’ll find some grass or, better yet, some outfield seats.
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7-29-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following late night victory in game one, the Pirates are poised for a third straight series win if they can overcome tonight’s starter and future Hall of Famer, Justin Verlander.
The 42-year old Verlander is a bit removed from his days pitching at an elite level which netted him 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP over his illustrious 20 years in MLB, entering the day with a 1-8 record, 4.70 ERA over 84.1 innings pitched with 70 strikeouts and 33 walks through his first 17 starts with San Francisco.
Verlander is feeling Father Time catching up as he is experiencing his lowest strikeout rate (18.6%) since 2014 (17.8%) and highest walk rate (8.8%) since 2008 (9.9%). As a result, his xERA (4.87) is the worst mark since Statcast tracking started in 2015.
July has been the worst month of the season for the 2006 Rookie of the Year as Verlander has a 6.48 ERA across 16.2 innings this month. That said, he is coming off his best start of his 2025 campaign as he pitched 5 shutout innings of 1-hit ball in Atlanta last week – however, even that comes with a caveat as he only managed 3 strikeouts against 5 walks in the game.
Although the velocity has understandably ticked down from his peak of pumping 100 at the top of the zone, Verlander is still averaging mid-90s with his 4-seam fastball with a high-80s slider and high-70s curve as his main secondary offerings mixing in a mid-80s changeup against lefties and a low-80s sweeper primarily against right handed hitters.
From both sides of the plate, the plan should be to look for the elevated fastball. Verlander is throwing the pitch 43.9% to lefties and 50.4% against righties with poor results across the board with a combined .324 xBA and .603 xSLG and 8 of his 10 home runs allowed this season coming against the pitch.
PHI – Bryce Harper Solo HR (10)
📏 Distance: 380 ft 💨 EV: 105.7 mph 📐 LA: 23° ⚾️ 94.4 mph four-seam fastball (SFG – RHP Justin Verlander) 🏟️ Would be out in 20/30 MLB parks
By contrast, Verlander has had success with his lesser-used offerings as his sweeper has a .091 opponent batting average while his changeup has an arsenal-best 35% whiff rate.
If the Bucco bats can stay on the heat and lay off the junk down and off the plate, they have a chance to take their first road series since taking 2 of 3 in Arizona against the Diamondbacks from May 26-28.
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This entire thing doesn’t need turned around by Thursday, but if I’m Ben Cherington, I’m probably looking to do my very best to make sure it looks like it’s headed that way.
Something has to give, you either have to make trades involving painful to part with prospects and eat salary, pay for it yourself on the open market, or do relatively nothing but move the guys there really can’t be much question about moving.
Lets Go!
1. Confusion for All
More than any other emotion, confusion has ruled the day during this season, hell, it’s really been since last offseason.
Nobody knows what the state of the GM is, nobody knows what he’ll be allowed to do, or who would determine what his limits might be. It’s hard to imagine Bob Nutting is that brake, nor his Team President Travis Williams, neither of them have baseball decisions like this in their blood or experience base.
It could be Justin Horowitz who they hired away to lead scouting but that would kind of be like keeping a restaurant GM in place and making his 18 year old shift supervisor the final say on anything deemed big.
It’s been a nearly universal assumption that Ben Cherington will be fired this offseason. Bob did this to his GM, and himself. His comments after firing Derek Shelton opened the door for not only potentially moving on from Ben in the offseason, but also rendering him fairly impotent.
At least that’s the cause and effect of his words. Might not have been his intention, probably wasn’t in truth, but he’s also not so much as attempted to clarify or quiet the groundswell.
Which in itself is a message. He may not have intended to create this uncertainty, but he has, and to not change it, or address it, well, let’s just say it has an air of I made your bed, now you must sleep in it.
To the outside world and the fan base, it screams disfunction. To the room, it spawns dark corners of suspicion, thoughts of who’s safe, who isn’t. I’m sure it creates conversation about it potentially being better for a player to be dealt too.
No matter what, these conversations will happen around this time of season, but it’s a lot easier for leadership in the room to squash it if it could be easily pushed off as typical rumors.
The point is, we can blame who we like for the position we’re in. Bob for not spending, Cherington for not spending what he had wisely, scouting, development, go ahead, name them off. Every angle you can think of is part of this state of confusion and all I can say is no matter what small question you’re trying to answer, it’s always going to be at least partially wrong, because you can’t evaluate a damn thing without first running through this gauntlet of things that don’t make sense.
Just like you, the room will go through these paces, and this team that plans to return the vast majority of players from 2025 to 2026 will first have to come to terms with what happened, where they sit and what exactly they still trust with this team.
Look at these quotes from Paul Skenes to Dejan Kovacevic yesterday.
“You know, we can play GM and do all that. But with the deadline coming, obviously, we need to make the team better for next year and, hopefully, put us in a position where we can make some moves in the offseason, too. So that’s kind of what I’m expecting.”
“That’s what I’m hoping. I know that’s what a lot of other guys in this locker room are hoping, ’cause, I think, obviously out on the field, we have some guys who’ve grown this year, who’ve gotten better, and other guys who’ve, you know, probably under-performed a little bit.”
He’d go on to name Oneil Cruz and Nick Gonzales as examples of growth but the point largely, Paul expects this team to get better next year, he expects it to come from moves and more internal growth.
These are things the GM has said, but the importance here is, Paul agrees, even if reading between the lines you can see it might not be backed by a ton of faith.
Nobody can fix this situation but Bob Nutting, and that’s what scares me. They won’t enter a rebuild again, they won’t tear it all down and start over, but they also can’t keep barely doing the minimum and expecting things to improve.
2. Henry Davis
Henry was drafted as a catcher who was going to hit, but potentially would not be able to stick at the position, I don’t think anyone saw coming what Henry has become in 2025.
It’s also not the end of his story.
Every season Henry has come back with a new bag of tricks. This year it was defense.
He can call a game like few are capable, in fact, if you watch the dugout during games, he’s commenting to Joey Bart in between innings about what he’s seeing.
It’s had Don Kelley mention him on days where he didn’t play multiple times and while it doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, it does help the pitching staff, and it is important.
The reason I say his story isn’t over, he knows his offense has to improve. His bat is what brought him to the majors, even as he had no position this short sighted team would allow him to play and now that he’s built himself into a truly great defensive catcher, the hope is that he’ll refocus on offense and see if he can’t at the very least turn himself into a much more well rounded player.
You may have already decided what he is, but the Pirates would be fools to agree with you. They owe their 1:1 selection more than that, and they owe this team playing it out another year with him if only because being built almost entirely on pitching, it might well be the smartest thing they could do is go all in on the defensive benefits regardless of how he comes along offensively.
.250 with 15 homeruns and the kind of defense he plays would be more than sufficient to continue with him, less than that and we’ll have to reconsider. The offensive pedigree outweighs the defensive with this player, so at the very least, we should probably take from what he’s done that he’s very capable of working on a problem and showing progress.
We need progress from him in 2026, and he’s absolutely getting a chance at it.
3. Congested Market for Bednar
Before I start here, I just want to share that I’ve heard some rumblings that the team is at least considering an extension with David. I have no indication of how far along that is or how plausible it might be, only that it’s been broached.
Now, the thing is, David has really turned things around from his disastrous 2024 finish and his equally frightening 2025 start, but he’s also not the only top rated back end reliever said to be on the market.
Jhoan Duran, Ryan Helsley, top that list. Duran has 2 more years of control, Helsley is in his walk year and David of course has 1 year remaining.
There are more than 3 teams out there looking for an arm like this, but these are unquestionably the 3 best available. In order, Helsley will be the cheapest, followed by Bednar and of course Duran.
Now, that’s how it should be. But Ben Cherington according to one Detroit Tigers reporter is asking for a “bananas” package for Bednar. If that’s the case it tends to mean one of two things. 1. They don’t really want to trade him, or 2. They simply have a price in mind and won’t move him if they don’t hit it.
Both can be true at the same time, in fact point number 2 is sometimes the easiest way to express point number 1.
What this approach costs you this time of year. You only have so much, and while there are more than 3 teams who would be in on a player like this, there aren’t more than 3 who would pay for it.
So by all means, set your price, but make sure if someone meets it, you’re actually willing to take it. I’ve heard this was something that cropped up over the past 5 years and it’s had a detrimental effect on who is willing to do business with the Pirates.
More than anything, don’t do anything that prevents you from getting offers, and if indeed you want to make a move here, make the move. Don’t wait for the price to be set. Be the answer someone is looking for and get the job done.
Or, extend him.
Next year, this conversation looks a lot more like the one St. Louis is having with Helsley. A minimal return or a free agent to be for little more than a comp pick.
4. Andrew McCutchen Will Likely be Back
He’ll be back in 2026, of this I have little doubt.
I have no problem with that, he’s a legend here, he’s been productive and frankly, this team is too offensively starved to consider dropping a player who does what Cutch does for 5 million dollars. They simply won’t find that.
I value Andrew’s veteran leadership, but I do question if it’s the right kind of leadership for this team, and what they’re missing.
If they want to bring him back, I get it is what I’m saying, but I don’t think they can lean on him the way they have this year. He’s productive, he’s just not productive enough to script in playing him every day. It’s also becoming clear Bryan Reynolds as a fielder leaves much to be desired, and that may ultimately mean he needs to DH more than play the field.
This team can’t pretend DH is a filled role and prevent themselves from using other players there, or keep them from looking at different options who might have a big stick and a glove that isn’t nearly as rock steady.
So of course, bring him back, but bring him back with a different role. A part time DH, pinch hitter, or even fill in OF here and there, but don’t expect him to carry the weight you ask 25 year olds to carry.
5. 2021 vs 2025
I’m intentionally looking at these two years because 2020 wasn’t a real season, and frankly, because of COVID, Ben Cherington was scarcely able to change anything, much less put his stamp on it.
Now 2021, that was a horse of a different color, and its really when the “rebuild” started in earnest. It’s also key to remember, DH wasn’t universal in 2021, so there’ll be no comparison there.
Position
2021 Totals
2025 Totals
Catcher
.210 AVG, 13 HR, 55 RBI
.211 AVG, 6 HR, 29 RBI
First Base
.244 AVG, 22 HR, 78 RBI
.212 AVG, 9 HR, 43 RBI
Second Base
.267 AVG, 10 HR, 48 RBI
.260 AVG, 7 HR, 36 RBI
Third Base
.242 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI
.238 AVG, 5 HR, 38 RBI
Shortstop
.228 AVG, 9 HR, 45 RBI
.248 AVG, 3 HR, 28 RBI
Left Field
.251 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI
.230 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI
Center Field
.273 AVG, 25 HR, 85 RBI
.219 AVG, 17 HR, 42 RBI
Right Field
.235 AVG, 20 HR, 70 RBI
.226 AVG, 11 HR, 50 RBI
Designated Hitter
N/A (NL rules pre-2022)
.248 AVG, 10 HR, 35 RBI
Now, the numbers from 2021 are obviously for full season and 2025 has some time left to make up ground, but which of these positions look to you like they’re on track to surpass?
That team too wouldn’t win a championship and it certainly didn’t have this pitching staff, but look at those homerun totals. There are 1, maybe 2 positions where they’ll hit more this year and while there should be room for development along the way, this team has simply not done well in this department.
Power is still in short supply at the top two levels of the minor leagues and the Majors too. No matter what method they use to improve this team, power is going to have to be an ingredient they look for, or this recipe simply isn’t going to be edible.
This is damning product to produce after 5 years of hard work. If that state of confusion we talked about up there sorts itself out with Cherington remaining, I think the first thing I’d like to do is have someone ask, how do you ignore things like this?
This is his best defense.
Stat
2021 Pirates
2025 Pirates
Wins
61
39
Losses
101
58
ERA (Earned Run Avg.)
5.08
3.73
Innings Pitched (IP)
1,420.0
853.2
Hits Allowed (H)
1,419
748
Runs Allowed (R)
833
354
Earned Runs (ER)
799
379
Home Runs Allowed (HR)
213
92
Walks (BB)
610
278
Strikeouts (SO)
1,223
720
WHIP
1.43
1.20
Opponent AVG
.264
.234
Again, there is time left for this to change, but I have to say once more, does it look like it’s trending toward 2021 at all? Right.
There’s no denying Cherington has done a job here on the pitching side, but as good as that’s been, the other side has been abysmal and I don’t just mean they haven’t reached the heights we hoped, they’ve actually regressed.
That shouldn’t happen no matter what your method of rebuild.
Stay tuned, it’s going to be a loud week one way or another.
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7-28-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Pirates wrapped up a winning home stand but, given their shortfalls on the road, optimism may be low until they return to PNC next week. Still, they head out to the west coast to face the San Francisco Giants and southpaw starter Carson Whisenhunt, who will make his MLB debut today.
A 2nd round pick in the 2022 draft, Whisenhunt is the #3 prospect for the Giants who soared effortlessly through the minors but hit a wall when he arrived at AAA last season and, even with the call up, didn’t really overcome the issues plaguing him there.
His recall to the major league is more a result of injuries (Landon Roupp) and ineffectiveness (Hayden Birdsong) than rewarding results as Whisenhunt has posted an underwhelming 4.42 ERA over 97.2 innings with the Giants top affiliate, the Sacramento River Cats, where he has a .273 opponent batting average and some bizarre day/night splits.
While he has had two decent starts in July combining 8.2 innings with just 3 runs allowed, that came with 14 hits and 3 walks to just 7 strikeouts. Additionally, he is coming off the worst month of his career as in June, he posted a 6.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over 27.1 innings of work.
Whisenhunt has been working more in the zone this season (6.8% walk rate compared to 11.3% in 2024 through 109.2 innings) but just isn’t putting hitters away like he was able to in the lower levels (21% K rate compared to 28.4% in 2024 and 35.3% over 58.2 innings in 2023).
Whisenhunt offers a mid-90s sinker, low-80s slider and infrequent high-70s curve but his main offering is his changeup, which has been his main pitch and is ranked among the best for prospects in MLB.
For a kid making his debut, there may be pressure on him to eat innings – especially after the Giants had to use a bullpen game in last night’s 5-3 loss to the Mets. Nonetheless, the Pirates have seen a number of pitching debuts this season and, more often than not, have struggled in these situations. They have to stay on the heat and breaking balls while laying off that changeup.
Attack the sinker/slider and spit on the changeup dropping down and under the zone. If he is getting too aggressive in the zone early, make him pay. If he is trying to nibble, let him nibble and wait for the mistake pitch that newbies are bound to drop in from time-to-time
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The Pirates travel to San Francisco to take on the Giants for three games this week. The Bucs will look to continue their nice little stretch as they are 5-1 over their last six games, which is impressive considering how poorly they entered and exited the All-Star break. And after a back-to-back series where they kept two pretty good offensive teams at bay – including only giving up one run to the Diamondbacks – it will be pretty interesting to see if they can keep it going, especially against a team who is fighting for a playoff spot in San Francisco.
On the other hand, for the Giants, this is a big series for them. The Giants have only one series win in their last four series, including two sweeps. And in these four series, they have only scored 3+ runs 3 times. They currently sit 3 games back of the final wild card spot, so this series is a sort of make-or-break time for them. If they lose the series, or even worse, get swept, does that kick them toward sellers for the trade deadline? Consequently, would winning or sweeping for the Giants make them more aggressive at the deadline?
This is also the last series before the trade deadline so it’s officially #hugwatch time. Make sure to watch this week (despite the West Coast start time) because it may be the last time you get to see some of these guys rock the Black and Gold, and who knows? The Pirates may look completely different come Friday.
Pirates: David Bednar – I know I mentioned him in my last preview, but with the deadline looming, I want to discuss him in case he gets traded (I hope he doesn’t). Bednar hasn’t given up an earned run since MAY 23! He has faced 32 batters in July and only given up 5 hits. He has been simply electric and is fully back to his all-star form, and I can’t be happier for him….PLEASE KEEP HIM.
Giants: Rafael Devers – Devers was the most significant trade in the MLB since Juan Soto. However, in the first stretch, he was struggling, as was the whole team. However, he has recently been on a better stretch. In the last seven days, he is batting .385 with two homers before an 0 for 4 performance last night. But, it seems that he is coming around, which for the Giants to have a shot at a run down the stretch, he has to get going.
Pirates: Isiah Kiner-Falefa – IKF has had a very interesting year with some stretches where he hits everything and stretches where he can’t hit. In July, he is 13 for 59, a .220 average, which, when you provide little to no power, really does nothing for the team. He also has just two extra-base hits this month, so it hasn’t been that good. But, with the deadline coming, IKF is probably gonna go, so it’s perhaps Cam Devanney time!
Giants: Justin Verlander – This may be the only time ever you get to put Justin Verlander in a cold stretch, but here we are. Verlander just got his first win in his last start, but he has had a very up-and-down season. In his previous five starts, his inning count has resembled that of two different pitchers (5, 2.2, 6, 3, 6), and his ERA in July is 6.48. With an average of 3.75 strikeouts, which for Verlander is a very low number. Which Verlander will we get in this series is hard to tell, but we shall see.
Pirates: Johan Oviedo (60 Day), Chase Shugart (15 Day), Ryan Borucki (15 Day), Malcom Nunez (7 Day), Anthony Solomento (60 Day), Justin Lawrence (60 Day), Tim Mayza (60 Day), Endy Rodriguez (60 Day), Jared Jones (60 Day), Enmanuel Valdez (60 Day)
Giants: Christian Koss (10 Day), Jerar Encarnacion (10 Day), Ethan Small (7 Day), Ryan Murphy (60 Day), Cole Waiters (7 Day), Tom Murphy (60 Day), Landen Roupp (15 Day), Erik Miller (15 Day), Sam Huff (DTD)
Notes
Pittsburgh is hoping to improve upon its awful performance on the road this season, where they have a 13-37 record – 2nd worst road record to the Colorado Rockies (13-40)
Look out for some Oveido news. He looked good in his start in Altoona, and with the deadline coming, he could be the first man up.
Cutch is currently tied with Mike Schmidt on the all-time hits list, so his next one will put him past the Phillies legend.
Like I said at the top, the trade deadline is this week, so be on the lookout for some hopefully good moves for the Pirates.
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7-27-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Despite not getting a ton of offense yesterday, the Bucs got enough to secure a win and now are in position for a series win and a winning homestand – a surprising outcome given the sweep courtesy of the White Sox last weekend.
The final starter of the Diamondbacks series is their long-time ace, Zac Gallen, who is looking to find consistency on the mound over a very up-and-down 2025 campaign (mostly down).
Gallen is a free agent after this year but with the season he’s having, the market may be drying up for the 2023 Cy Young finalist.
Among all qualified MLB starters, Gallen has the 2nd highest ERA (5.58), allowed the 2nd most earned runs (75), the 5th most hits (120), the 7th most walks (46) and has given up the most home runs (23) – the highest of his career (previous most was 22 over 210 innings in 2023).
HOU – Brice Matthews 3-run HR (1)
📏 Distance: 397 ft 💨 EV: 108.5 mph 📐 LA: 37° ⚾️ 94.2 mph four-seam fastball (ARI – RHP Zac Gallen) 🏟️ Would be out in 28/30 MLB parks
Pittsburgh bested him earlier this season as they raked him for 6 runs (5 earned) off 6 hits, 3 walks and 3 strikeouts through innings on May 28th.
Gallen mainly works a fastball/curve/changeup mix against lefties while switching to fastball/curve/slider when facing right-handed hitters. While the curve has still been a fairly strong offering that has garners a 42.9% whiff rate, righties are batting .265 against Gallen’s slider while his fastball has been hit at a .295 clip by lefties.
In the previous matchup two months ago, the Pirates were hitting Gallen exceptionally hard with an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93.4 MPH and 8 balls hit at 97+ MPH.
Continue what well last time and look to attack the fastballs/sliders, fight off the curve and put some balls in the seats to get a series win over the Snakes.
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7-26-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Pittsburgh continues to struggle finding consistency at the plate this season following their 24th 1-run loss and 14th time getting shutout on the season. Today, they will look for redemption as they face Snakes starter, Merrill Kelly, who has quietly been one of the better pitchers in the National League.
Among qualified starters in the Senior Circuit, Kelly ranks 8th in bWAR (3.1), 13th in ERA (3.32), 14th in strikeouts (118), 8th in WHIP (1.06) and 7th in batting average against (.206).
However, the underlying metrics don’t back up the sustainability of this production as he also has the 4th lowest BABIP (.248) with similar hard hit% (43.8%) and average exit velocity (90.6 MPH) numbers to last season (40.9% and 90.5 MPH, respectfully) when he had a 4.03 ERA and a .273 BABIP.
He gets strong chase rates and plus groundball numbers due in large part to his main offering: a high-80s changeup, which generates a 34% whiff rate and a .176 BAA.
He also dispatches a 4-seam, cutter and sinker in the low-90s but to a much less successful result as opposing batter are hitting .230 and slugging .443 against Kelly’s fastballs.
Against lefties, he also goes to a low-80s curve while switching to a mid-80s slider as a secondary versus righties.
Left handed hitters should target the 4-seam and sinker as they have a .364 wOBA against his sinker and .443 against the 4-seam.
WSH – Josh Bell 3-run HR (9)
📏 Distance: 430 ft 💨 EV: 110 mph 📐 LA: 31° ⚾️ 88.4 mph sinker (ARI – RHP Merrill Kelly) 🏟️ Would be out in 30/30 MLB parks
Righties have only been having success against Kelly’s sinker – but it’s been a TON of success as they’re batting .354 and slugging .438 with a 15.8% whiff rate, which are all the best marks against any of his main offerings.
Key for the Bucs today is just make contact and put the ball in play. It was promising that they only struck out 7 times in 11 innings last night but getting bat-to-ball will eventually get those hits to fall in against opponents.
Stay on the elevated heat, spit on the offspeed/breaking stuff down and get some runs on the board.
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7-25-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Refreshed after the off-day, the Pirates look to wrap up their home-stand against the Arizona Diamondbacks with Ryne Nelson on the docket to start today.
Nelson has bounced between the rotation and bullpen for the Snakes this season as he makes his 12th start of the season and enters Friday with a solid 3.52 ERA through 84.1 innings of work.
He fared well against the Bucs last time around as he tossed 6.2 shutout frames on May 26th with just 4 hits, no walks and 4 strikeouts in that start.
As mentioned previously, his success is backed by a deceptively strong 4-seam fastball – which sits mid-90s but can touch 98 – as opponents are batting just .187 against the offering. He has been throwing the pitch constantly (62.5%) and it has resulted in 52 of his 69 strikeouts on the year thus far due in large part to his above-average extension leading to one of the highest run values on the pitch in MLB.
He mixes in a cutter, slider, curve and changeup but his bread and butter is the heater upstairs.
Nelson has been extra locked-in lately as he pitched 6+ innings with 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. And while Pittsburgh seriously struggled against Nelson last time around, there is reason to think they could fare better in round 2.
First off, Nelson has had a suspiciously low BABIP this season (.233) – well below his career .284 rate and tied for the 2nd lowest mark in MLB for pitchers with a minimum 80 innings pitched.
Additionally, despite playing in a hitter-friendly environment, Nelson has shown struggles much more outside of his home ballpark as his ERA away from Chase Field (5.79) is nearly triple what it is when opponents bat first (2.09).
Final thing I want to note on Nelson is that, unlike most pitchers, he is better the second time through the order than the first with opponents having over 70 points higher batting average and more than 200 points higher slugging percentage the first time they see Nelson in a game.
He’s going to throw a ton of fastballs and the Pirates need to be geared up for it and try to get to him early in the game if they want to do the kind of damage they’ve been showing they’re capable of inflicting lately.
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