Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Winter Meetings are Coming…

11-18-24 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

If you Start me up…

Justin Verno-  Before we really dig into the upcoming Winter Meetings, I want to point out a few things.  

First off, this just was not the season we had hoped it’d be. This team at one point looked like a playoff team. And if I may be so bold, they had a starting rotation that would have been the envy of many a playoff team; one that would have made many teams uncomfortable, perhaps even fearful.

Then the Acme Rocket that Wylie Coyote bought to catch the Roadrunner blew up, leaving poor Wylie burnt and looking like a fool.  I am not bringing this up to be a Debbie Downer, nor are we here to talk about what went wrong.

So why do I bring this up? A few weeks ago, General Manager Ben Cherington held his end of year press conference.  There seemed to be a “playoffs or else” tone to it as GMBC said that he and Manager Derek Shelton would “go into 2025 accountable together”.

Corey, could I maybe read too much into that? Perhaps, but it really does have the feel of now or never.

Why is that important to me and you? It’s a wild card to me. If his job is on the line I think we could see a more aggressive GM in Dallas come December.

Corey Shrader- When a GM and coach make that sort of declaration at the end of a disappointing season, it is really telling. The message has likely been conveyed to them that your jobs have an expiration date and a clear expectation of results. 

JV-  The other point I wanted to bring up here, for the first time since we’ve done these pieces at Steel City Pirates, the Bucs have specific and identifiable needs. And I get that the Bucs had specific holes at the trade deadline last year, but I think there was still some “wait and see” approach. The front office, for the reasons I mentioned earlier, should not have that philosophy at the Winter Meetings. 

CS- Pittsburgh has more clearly defined needs this offseason than in the past. The corner OF positions are nebulous, shortstop now has a 6’7” sized hole in it, & first base is vacant and wanting of talent yet again. I do think that left handed starting pitching would be a nice fit, but likely not the highest of priority. 

To briefly expand on the above; there are real indications that Pirates star outfielder and offensive fixture, Bryan Reynolds, will be working on transitioning to first base in 2025. I do not think that Reynolds shifting should be viewed as the absolute solution, but it could be one. While we know that Reynolds is a poor defensive OF, his capability to play first is a totally unknown quantity. 

Yes, there are outfield options in house. Bryan De La Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Joshua Palacios, Billy Cook, Connor Joe. But we’ve seen them try to cobble this coalition together to get winning results and it just does not produce them. I do not mean to suggest that these players cannot be contributors. What I am saying is that they have proven to not be starting caliber thus far.

At the shortstop position most lineup projections lean toward Isiah Kiner-Falefa stepping into that role. In my view, IKF is a great “swiss-army knife” player. A versatile defender across multiple positions, but his offense once arriving in Pittsburgh is not starting caliber. Hence the inclusion of shortstop as a need in our estimation.

JV- That maps out the Buccos needs giving Corey and myself a lot to work with over the next five weeks. Buying players is just more fun than selling players, mostly because of why a team buys/sells. So I am looking forward to the next few weeks. 

But before we get to all the “buying,” there is one specific spot the Bucs can and should look to “sell” from. The Bucs are loaded with pitching. Even with Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and even Bubba Chandler in a “Can’t Touch This” category, as MC Hammer would say, the team still has a backlog of arms. 

Of course Bubba may not be given the chance to be on the opening day roster, though I am not writing that off. The boys will still have the arms. Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Luis L Ortiz and  Johan Oviedo give them some breathing room. Add in the aforementioned Bubba and a few other arms that could be ready on the quick- Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington and the Bucs seem to be in a great spot to move an arm to help the cause.

CS- To chip in a thought on this idea; it is more of an instance of dealing from a position of strength rather than a pure “selling” position. Make no mistakes, Pittsburgh boasts one of the best pitching development regimes in the major leagues currently. As we have seen in the last few seasons, pitching depth at the Major League level is not just essential, but an inevitable necessity. 

Should the Front Office decide to make the kinds of moves to address need, the strength of the system will make for a good place to deal from. 

JV- Something needs to be said with all of this, if the Bucs do move a starter it will not be to “cut payroll” or to start a “fire sale.” If they do move a starter it is to somehow fill one of the holes in their lineup. Without further ado, let’s get to some trade proposals. Get us started here, Corey.

Swinging for the fences

CS- So, what I am about to propose to you is more of a “let’s make our strengths even freaking stronger” pitch. Are there greater needs? Probably. Would this addition still be very fun & good? Yes.

Pittsburgh gets – Garrett Crochet, SP – SV $104.8M

White Sox gets – Bubba Chandler, P – FV 60, SV $60M

                             Termarr Johnson, 2B – FV 50, SV $28M

                             Michael Burrows, P – FV 45+, SV $6M

I can tell what you’re thinking after seeing this. “But pitching is the strong point of this club. Why do the Pirates need another pitcher?” You might also be thinking “it is stupid to pay that much prospect capital for another pitcher.” Valid arguments, to be sure. But I submit to you that Garrett Crochet is not just “another pitcher.” 

2024 was Crochet’s first real exposure at filling a starting pitching role in the major leagues. My major takeaway is that he is for real, and he is spectacular. Among all pitchers that logged a minimum of 100 IP he finished with a 2.83 xERA (9th), 2.69 FIP (5th), 2.53 SIERA (1st), 29.6% K-BB rate (1st), 209 Ks (7th), and a 4.7 fWAR (t6th). Every pitch in his arsenal boasted a Whiff% above 30% including a sinker that he added later in the season. I would go so far as to say that Garrett Crochet is not just “good,” but firmly in the discussion for the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.

The package going back to Chicago here is hefty. Bubba Chandler is about as close to an elite pitching prospect as there is, he is right up there with Andrew Painter, Noah Schutlz, Jackson Jobe, and whoever else you want to fit into that tier. Coupled with his ascension to AAA in 2024, his taste of the Majors seems all but imminent sometime in 2025. Similarly, Michael Burrows is essentially ready for a Major League role after working back from surgery to debut in late 2024. 

Termarr Johnson is a tough evaluation, in my opinion. He regularly flashes the skills that made him the 4th overall selection in 2022, but he was also somewhat inconsistent too. I’ve got some reservations about him retaining his 50FV ranking, but the pedigree probably is enough for it to stick and/or other teams to value him as such in a trade.

Are other needs glaring? Sure. But the vision of a Skenes/Crochet 1-2 is truly terrifying for opposing teams. 

JV- If you were to open a different window and google “2025 MLB off-season team needs” you would find this article.  Take a stroll down the piece and you will see 21 teams listed as needing a “SP”.  OK, I get that Yardbarker isn’t attending the front office meetings of MLB teams, but still. A few of these organizations might not feel they need starting pitching. We can also eliminate some teams. Division rivals. Teams that are rebuilding. And so on. 

But one thing is certain, the Bucs will have options if they do decide to go this route. 

For my big swing I’m looking at the Chicago White Sox and hey, let’s do the first three team trade scenarios of the season. 

Red Sox get-

Mitch Keller- SP-MLB- SV $13.3M

Put aside Keller’s projections for  second. Put aside his ERA. Keller had 31 starts this year. In 22 of those starts he gave up 3 or less earned runs. In 5 of the remaining 9 he gave up 4 ER. Mitch Keller is really good and he’s consistent. More so than one would guess by scoreboard watching. I imagine the Bucs could get more value than the projected surplus value. 

White Sox get-

Miguel Bleis-OF-ETA:2026 (FV 50 $28M)

Miguel Bleis is coming off a lopsided season. After earning a promotion from A to A+ by slashing a solid .257/.349/.398 with a wRC+ of 123 he had some issues adjusting to his new level. Hitting .190/.265/.319 with a wRC+ of just 70. Due to these numbers, I can see him getting devalued a little bit, perhaps to a 45+ but at  20 there’s still enough for the White Sox to get excited about here. 

Braxton Ashcraft or Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2026 (45+FV or 45 FV $6M or $4M)

This is a pick ‘em situation for the White Sox. Both Braxton and Thomas have a 50 grade by at least one site. Both pass the eye test with one being held back by injury the other is just undervalued. 

Liover Peguero-SS/2B-Debuted-(SV-hard to gauge)

Corey, we’ve been here before haven’t we? Liover is still a really intriguing kid. He debuted at 21 years of age. In 2023 he hit 7 HR over 59 games but he currently looks like a flier or change of scenery guy. The ball still explodes off his bat but I don’t see the Bucs giving him an honest look. 

Yordany De Los Santos OR Keiner Delgado-SS-ETA: 2027 (FV 45 $6M)

Another pick ‘em food Chicago. Giving up either would be a hard pill to swallow. SS are a nice commodity to have but that also means they are nice commodity to move in trades. 

Pirates get-

Luis Robert Jr-OF-MLB (SV $18M)

Yes, I get he’s often injured. I get this a gamble. But when healthy he’s the biggest difference maker the Bucs could realistically acquire. Is the juice worth the squeeze?  I think it is. I know this doesn’t look and feel like the big swing we’re looking for, but the discounted cost could be worth looking at for Ben Cherrington.

Andrew Vaughn-1B/OF-MLB(SV $18M)

This would be a perfect situation for the Bucs. Adding an OF and a 1B/OF in a BOGO deal. While Andrew Vaughan never hit his ceiling he still has something the Bucs need, power. He’s not only an upgrade over Bryan De La Cruz, he’s more versatile. Side note, his SV of 18M will likely tick down a hair when the new projections come out.

While this isn’t the homerun many were probably hoping for, it seems to me more in line with something Nutting might approve of. There is risk here and I get that, but there’s also reward. 

I can also see another piece headed to Boston but I don’t think it’d be anything to lose sleep over to even out the SV, but in the end these values will be changing a good deal. 

Bunting ‘em over

CS- Conventional wisdom typically says that being overly reliant on prospects to take on big roles from day 1 is not typically smart money, I have a definite target in mind for a mid-sized acquisition. This player is more of an inexperienced young player than a full on “prospect,” but the same thought process could apply here about relying on younger players for major contributions. 

First base has been a hole for the Pirates for a long enough time that almost every guy without a clear & permanent home defensively is floated as a “try him at 1B” option. What I’d like to suggest would be something similar to what the Cubs did with the acquisition of Michael Busch in 2024. To accomplish this, I think the team should look out west at the City To Be Determined Athletics. 

One thing I want to avoid here is the notion that “they’re the A’s and they’ll trade anyone without rhyme or reason because that’s what they do.” Yes, they are an overall poor ballclub, but I do not think that is how they truly operate. I will expand on my reasoning behind this target in a bit.

Pittsburgh get: Tyler Soderstrom, 1B (11.8 SV)

Athletics get:    Braxton Ashcraft, P (45+ FV, 6 SV)

                           Yordanny De Los Santos, SS (45 FV, 6 SV)

To address the “why would they move Tyler Soderstrom” question, in my mind it comes down to both organizational depth & organizational need for the Athletics. Based on 2025 lineup projections, many expect Soderstrom to be the A’s starting 1B from day 1. This expectation does set the stage for an elevated asking price. 

The rationale behind a Soderstrom trade is that the A’s have seeded the system with other 1B options. With the 4th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft they selected Wake Forest slugger Nick Kurtz. With pick 40 overall they selected LSU corner bat Tommy White. They also feature premium power hitting DH Brent Rooker on the major league team. 

Nick Kurtz looks to be a fast moving big bat and a 1B/DH only. Tommy White is slated to play 3B, but his future there is not assured from a defensive standpoint. Brent Rooker is a pure DH and is under team control until 2028. This is not even counting 2023 draftee Will Simpson. Since being drafted, Simpson has been decimating the minors in his own right. Things could possibly get crowded very quickly in the 1B/DH arena, hence the Soderstrom target not being too pie-in-the-sky, in my opinion.

What the A’s system is thin on is starting pitching. 

The key piece in this type of move from what the Pirates send would be the starting pitcher. In the proposal above I included Braxton Ashcraft, but in reality, I would feel fine swapping in any of Michael Burrows, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco. All of whom I believe will be strong 45+ FV player candidates in the 2025 update.

It stings to also add youngster Yordanny De Los Santos here, but a 45 FV grade bat would also be necessary in lieu of moving 2 of the above pitchers. He is very much still a project and a fun one. The obvious drawback in including him is the hole at the shortstop position in Pittsburgh right now, but I would be willing to take my chances and move him. 

My case for Soderstrom is that he checks a lot of boxes in a “breakout coming” sort of profile. On the website formerly known as Twitter, I recently called Soderstrom my #1 trade target for the Bucs and even compared him to the Mets 2024 breakout, Mark Vientos. I still stand by that assessment.

Soderstrom can punish the ball. He features a well above MLB average exit velocity of 91.9, an above MLB average barrel rate, well above average hard hit rates, elite flyball & linedrive average exit velocity of 97.4. Since I compared him to Vientos above here are those same numbers Vientos posted in 2023 compared to Soderstrom in 2024:

To go one step further in this comparison, Soderstrom showed some intriguing hit tool avantages to 2023 Vientos.

Now, if I, a random internet user, can identify these things, you can be pretty darn sure that the Athletics know all of this too. But, if the Pirates are willing to make it worth the A’s while, I do believe Soderstrom could be had.

JV- Adding Soderstrom for that package would be a no brainer and I’d love to see GMBC looking at that kind of trade. In the same vein of the past trade deadline deal to acquire Nick Yorke. 

OK, bunting them over may come across as a bigger swing than my big swing. So stick with me here. Let’s call up the Guardians. 

Guardians get-

Luiz L Ortiz-SP-MLB (SV hard to gage)

Does it sound ridiculous to say that Ortiz just looks like the proto typical Guardian pitcher?  He looks like a terrific #4 or even a #3. As far as pure stuff goes, it’s the consistency that needs the work. If we used the WAR of 1 he put up this year he’d likely have an SV of close to $20M. 

Liover Pegeuro-SS/2B-debuted(hard to gauge)

See above.

Pirates get-

Josh Naylor-1B/OF-MLB (SV $9M)

This is a much surer bet then Robert/Vaughn are. Then what gives? He’s a rental and an OF/1B, and folks, that always lowers the ask. Don’t believe me? Check out what the Guardians gave up for a year and change of Lane Thomas at the trade deadline this past season. That said landing 5 years of a proven MLB arm could be a nice bet for the pitching hungry Guardians. 

George Valera–OF-ETA: 2024 (past due) (FV 40 $@M)

Once a top prospect is now a change of scenery guy. The HR power looks solid but the wRC+ came in at 104 this year. With his game and raw power grading out at 45/55 and 55/60 while the hit lagging in at 30/30 he still has some work to do. He’s worth a look for  a system starved for OF prospects. Swapping a change of scenery guy for a change of scenery guy that could address needs for both teams? Why not?

Final thoughts

CS- Coming into this piece the plan on my side was not really to pursue pitching, but the more I dug in on Crochet, the harder it was to look in another direction. It would certainly be a big swing, but to date has been the type of move Pirates GMs have been unwilling to go for. The same could be said, really, of the LuBob scenario. Given the team’s trading track record, even our “bunting them over” moves feel like a dream scenario. This offseason is a mystery box to me. It has that do or die feel for the front office and the skipper, so it seems even harder to grasp at the direction.


JV- Something of note here, these deals are about as different as can be. In the end I think the Bucs will get some deals done before catchers and pitchers report. But sitting here today, we just have no clue how GMBC will operate. How he works with what he has and a new found urgency has us playing a guessing game and I for one, am looking forward to it.

The Pirates Should Make a Run at Sasaki, they really should

If you have never heard the name Roki Sasaki, you will. And you won’t have to wait too long to hear it. This off-seasons biggest name will be a 23 year old 6’2″ fireballer that’s never thrown a pitch in the majors. Never faced a major league hitter in the states. He’s never had to adjust to seeing a Juan Soto for a second series. He’s never had to look over his shoulder to make sure Elly De La Cruz doesn’t take too big of a lead off 1st. But he will be the most sought after free agent on the market all the same, make no mistake about that.

And the Pittsburgh Pirates should absolutely be all in on Roki Sasaki. Yes, you read that correctly. The Pirates, owned by the cheap one, Robert Nutting should be all in on Roki Sasaki.

We could fill these pages talking about the big right arm. I could talk about how his four-seam fast ball that tops out at 102 MPH. That it plays up in the zone. That it averages 99-96 MPH. Or what about the slider? One of his three pitches the slider has a WHIFF rate of only 47%(this is sarcasm). And we still haven’t even talked about his splitter. That offering has a 57% WHIFF rate, the pitch drops off the table faster than my poor meatball, all covered with cheese. Simply put. The. Kid. Is. Good.

Look, if you’re reading this I’m guessing you know exactly who Sasaki is. And that’s why you clicked on it to give it a read. Also, thank you for stopping in.

And boy oh boy, is the sound of your eyes rolling at me deafening. I can hear some of you yelling at the screen,

“it’s never going to happen..”

“Nutting is too cheap for that”.

“Why would Sasaki even consider coming here”?

And ya know what? You aren’t wrong.

But guess what. Neither am I. Hopefully you give me a few paragraphs to prove it.

Let’s start with the most obvious talking point.

“Nutting is too cheap”.

Normally this is a point that could not be argued. In just about any other situation Robert Nutting could not afford a 23 year old staring pitcher that will be the off-season’s biggest prize, and let’s be frank, he wouldn’t even try.

But this isn’t “normally”. Sasaki played in the Nippon Baseball League and will be subject to the MLB/NBL posting system. In the Japanese posting system there are two types of posts to consider.

There’s the Yoshinobo Yamamoto type. Meaning if an international player is over 25 with at least 6 years of experience they become a free agent through the posting system. A lot to sort through with all that so feel free to check on the MLB/NPB highlighted above.

The result of him qualifying for that got him a 12 year 325 million dollar contract with the LA Dodgers, coincidentally they are the hands-on favorite to land Sasaki. We can all agree this kind of deal isn’t happening for a team owned by the baseball version of Scrooge McDuck. (side note, I would love to see that kind of deal for Paul Skenes but I’m not holding my breath)

Sasaki will NOT qualify for that type of post. Instead the 23 year Roki will be subject to the international bonus pool money. Here’s where it gets a little tricky. Teams are assigned a bonus pool and they cannot spend more than that pool. They can add to their pools by acquiring other teams slots. But that’s it. It’s capped.

Without getting lost in too much minutia, this year teams are split into five different bonus pools.

$7.5M, $6.9M, $6.2M, $5.6M and $5.1M. Our beloved Pirates are in that second pool of $6.9M. Money simply wont be the main factor in signing the young right hander, but more about that later. Let us for now stick with the “cheap Nutting” bullet point. Upon signing the deal Sasaki will be a low budget controlled player for years.

If Nutting wants to operate like a small market team with small budget constraints but big league expectations and dreams then being in on Roki Sasaki should be an absolute must. Deals, or should we say actual bargains like this are exactly what he should be looking at on a yearly basis and he should be doing it with an all hands on deck approach. There’s a difference in being cheap and being frugal and it’s about time Nutting learned the difference. There, I said it.

Next point, “Why would Sasaki want to come here”?

Ever been really hungry late at night and the fridge is basically empty? But you keep getting up and reopening that fridge and staring in it just hoping that leftover pizza appears out of nowhere?

That’s how I felt trying to find some answers on this. I kept opening that fridge and seeing the reasons Sasaki won’t even consider coming to Pittsburgh. I bet your list checks a lot of the same boxes as mine.

-cheap owner

-losing orginazation

-3 playoff appearances in 30 some seasons

I mean the list goes on and on. But then I tried the freezer and ya know what? Jackpot frozen pizza!

Consider-

The best Ball Park in the MLB. PNC Park.

How about the city has celebrated many international players. We really do seem to go all in on the guys not born in the states. Could it be because we rooted for one of the all time greats, Roberto Clemente?

But even beyond him. Jung Ho Kang, this town was swept away with Kang fever. Starling Marte “Parte”. Gregory “El coffee” Polanco. Coming to Pittsburgh could absolutely translate into additional deals being the face of a local car dealership. Or perhaps the voice of some local furniture company. The point is he’d be a local icon three seconds after agreeing to a deal.

My final selling point to Roki Sasaki to come put on for the fine people of our city? And I think this would be the most enticing point?

Being part of perhaps the most hyped under 25 rotation in the history of the a game? 23 year old Paul Skenes. 23 year old Jared Jones. 22 year old Bubba Chandler and add in 23 year old Roki Sasaki? Are you kidding me? If there’s a rival to this group I certainly can’t think of it. Even without Sasaki this will be one the most celebrated young rotations since the Braves of the 90’s. Does that equate to results? No, but I know where I’d place my bet. How ’bout you?

The only thing I can say about all of this is that Robert Nutting should 110% without doubt, without pause and no excuses should be all in on Roki Sasaki. Even if Mr. Nutting is beyond certain that his team stands no shot at even getting an in person meeting it just cannot stop him from doing everything he can to get that meeting.

How far should he go? If I was the owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates I would grab Derek Shelton, Oscar Marin, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler and jump on a private jet to Japan. And I wouldn’t leave until his manager arranged a meeting with the young protege.

I’d personally call his agent every damn day until they filed for a restraining order.

The one thing he simply can’t do is sit this one out. I don’t know if being all in on Roki and still missing out on him would be good or bad for Nutting. I do, however know the team desperately needs a PR win. Going after the kid would look great. Not going after him at all? Would be derelict of duty and honestly, for a dude that already has a few billboards telling him what he should do with the team scattered around the city? Let’s just say that wouldn’t help him win any popularity contests any time in the near future.

Make the damn call Robert.

If the Pirates Want to Earn the Public Trust, the Answer is Right in Front of Them

11-12-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

No matter what the Pirates do this offseason on the free agent market or manage to spin back in a trade, there’s a solid chance fans remain in wait and see mode as to how they feel the team is on the making an effort scale.

They could sign just about anyone not named Corbin Burnes, Juan Soto or Blake Snell and there’s a solid chance most fans simply won’t be moved. If you thought they weren’t trying before, you probably won’t think they are suddenly based on who they do bring in.

For me, there’s one thing this team could do that would change how the team is at least perceived and it’s to immediately extend Paul Skenes.

From the moment he was drafted, it was clear he was special, and as a 47 year old Pirates fan, it was also clear he’d be gone before he hits free agency. Unless this team does something they really never have.

This isn’t about getting him cheap, although he gets more expensive with every single inning he dominates. It’s not about believing an extension of this one player guaranteeing a championship, although it sure wouldn’t hurt your hopefulness.

It’s got nothing to do with paying him more because he’s better than a rookie deal wage, but hey, it might just kill two birds with one stone.

No, what this is about is once and for all showing the fans that they can trust they’ll be watching Paul Skenes as a Pittsburgh Pirate for at least a little longer than most of us believed plausible.

The way the fans feel right now, even a successful team could find themselves in June or July before fans have begrudgingly decided to take one more ride with them after an offseason of tough talk and challenging the owner to step up or step out. An extension of Paul Skenes would give fans an example of their dreams not being too big for this franchise, at least as it comes to this one issue.

If you think about it, by calling him up to MLB when they did, they clearly didn’t care about earning a draft pick by playing him from the start, and they clearly didn’t feel stressed about seeing him earn a full season of playing time for being a Rookie of the Year finalist. Point is, they made decisions as though they didn’t care about Super 2, or losing a year of control, or gaining a draft pick, so I’m inclined to think they don’t care about those things and maybe, just maybe that’s because they have designs to extend this player and make it all moot.

I’d offer him 10 years and 300 Million, an AAV of 30 Million per year. The way MLB is structured, the Pirates have leverage to make this appealing.

First, this gives him insurance should he be injured and miss significant time. We’ve all seen guys who looked like they might dominate this league for a long time wind up barely being able to string together two healthy seasons. I’m not saying that’s Paul’s future, I’m just saying it’s a possible future for every player, and it’s mighty hard to turn down 300 Million as opposed to the paltry amount he could be looking at if he goes year by year and suffers injuries.

Yeah, you read that right, and yeah, all those scary things are exactly the types of things a franchise like the Pirates would struggle to live through if the worst things that could happen actually did. But the risk of allowing the fan discord to grow, and intensify as he inches closer to free agency year over year, well, imagine the Bryan Reynolds offseason from a couple years back and add some torches and pitchforks.

Not to mention, the longer you let it go, the less of that risk leverage you have, the more that 30 Million AAV starts to look more like 40. The closer you get, the more intriguing the numbers his agent starts throwing at him for what he could command.

If the Pirates decided to tear this whole thing down in 4-5 years and start over with more kids, they could be building around a veteran Paul Skenes, or, trading him like Washington did Soto to just about rebuild the system in a season. It’s not like a healthy Skenes will every be worth less than that contract right? Don’t do this and he’ll be the single biggest reason they HAVE to tear it down, because he’ll be the first domino to fall.

Risk is not something this team does often or well. Paul Skenes is arguably the lowest risk big time arm you’ll ever find. He hasn’t been pitching since he was 7 so he has in theory more life in his arm than most. He didn’t toil for 3-4 years in the minors before getting here, again, more arm than most left in the tank.

Finally, he’s a guaranteed box office draw. The Pirates averaged 21,239 paying customers, not turnstile, paid attendance. PNC can hold 38,747, the average ticket price is $26.21. Paul himself is a draw, Paul on a winning team well, you can max out that park more often is the point, and in many ways Paul will help pay for himself.

Sign Christian Walker. Go get Michael Conforto. None of that is moving the needle toward fans trusting you get it, it’s different, something is building, more than extending a guy most of us assumed would be a Yankee or Dodger by 2028 give or take.

I can think of no better gesture of good faith this club could put forward. In fact, I’ll predict it right now, if they did it, we’d start to see some of those who have long since decided they were an unserious franchise be shouted down. At least for a bit.

More than anything, if you truly want to claim you’re competing for a World Series, you have to have at least 1 superstar. That’s not to say Paul is the only one they could draft/develop/acquire, it’s just to say, I’ve been here a long time and aside from Barry Bonds and Andrew McCutchen, I haven’t seen it.

The team can fix a lot that ails it with one big move. A move that might allow them to buy some credibility that they’ve eroded over the past decade, and on top of all of that, they get a lock down top of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Do this Bob. I have little doubt this isn’t the type of move Ben Cherington can make without you, but for once in your life, buy the attraction you expect we all will show up for, especially since we’ve already shown you we will.

Sign him, and watch how many of us sign up right along with him.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Veterans Day Edition

11-11-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

There are times when I feel like Liam Nissan in Love Actually looking at his step-son saying “We need Kate, we need Leo, and we need them now”.

On this Veterans Day, and after an emotional week, we need some Johnny Cash, and we need him now.

More of a poem then a song really, but nonetheless a story of how resilient we as a people are, and how much we have that makes us one great nation, bound by the very chaos that makes some of us feel so uneasy.

If you served, thank you. If someone in your family did, thank you for being their support system back home. If you just live here and enjoy your freedoms without a second thought, well, they fought for you too.

Now onto our Buccos, and some more great Johnny Cash tunes to keep us in line.

1. God’s Gonna Cut You Down

It’s not just one of Bryan Reynolds’ old walk up songs, it’s a bitter pill of a song, meant to be ingested by anyone who feels they’re at the top of the world, untouchable in their minds by any sort of reckoning.

In baseball, getting humbled is a big part of the journey for everyone, none more so then those who have tasted a bit of success too, so let’s use this section to talk about some guys who got smacked in the face by the game in 2024 and how likely it is they come out of it in 2025.

Jack Suwinski – In 2023, Jack showed a ton of promise hitting 26 bombs in 144 games, and it followed a rookie campaign in which he pounded 19 in only 106 games. Neither of these came with average or even OPS really, he clearly needed to clean some things up to take a step. Well, 2024 was a step in the wrong direction and the Pirates will probably hope that’s primarily all this was, a bad step. He’s worth more time and effort, but the team is short on having both to offer.

Ke’Bryan Hayes – We all know about Ke’s injury issue, and maybe that issue in and of itself is at least partially responsible for his poor performance at the plate, either way, this isn’t the result the Pirates or Ke’Bryan thought they’d get from his extension. Offensively speaking, 2023 was his coming out party, and most of us who watched it know it was a tale of two seasons in reality. No matter what, the Pirates need Ke’Bryan to at least rebound to the point where his contract is movable. Big year for Hayes, following a real smack in the face campaign.

David Bednar – The Renegade went from a hometown pride to a painful reminder that it’s just a song if it doesn’t end in wins, and far too often “Renegade” was met with at best the team holding on for extra innings. The stuff is still there for David, the command issues and tipping stuff, well, that’s how he got cut down isn’t it? A David Bednar who looks much more like himself would be a huge pickup this offseason many of us have already given up on.

Who would you name here? Remember, to fit this category, they have to have done something in the league in the past and now they have to recover from a reckoning.

2. A Boy Named Sue

At it’s core, A Boy Named Sue is a story about not understanding a difficult to deal with card you’ve been dealt, then realizing, with a little help, that you had to go through that tough time to come out of it with “gravel in your gut”.

In many ways, finishing 2024 with the same record as 2023 should make the Pirates realize that this thing isn’t set up to just keep naturally progressing, but they are already at a point where a whole lot of what was already here better have learned from the beat down they got last year.

When we get into the offseason, and start hearing their message to fans as we enter 2025, and Pirates Fest, one thing I want to see change is going to be super apparent quickly. I want to hear players and team execs talk about improving and I want to hear it with the perspective that they wanted the same thing from many of the same players last year.

I want to hear how that experience will change their approach. I want to hear that the coach has learned when to be quicker on the trigger. I want to hear a lesson they’ve learned from their failed collective hitting approach.

I need to hear guys less giddy to be here, and more ready for business. I’m ready to stop hearing how exciting what’s coming is, and start hearing how exciting what’s here will be.

Of course they’re going to have to show us on the field, but on the way there, let’s make sure we all know what is going to change the outcome. If you don’t have a good answer, you didn’t do enough, plain and simple.

3. One Piece at a Time

Hilarious song really. It’s about working at a car factory, knowing you can’t afford to buy the product you’re building, so you decide to steal it one piece at a time so you can build one for yourself by the time you retire.

The song is great, but it also makes me think of how the Pirates have built this team and the task feels just as long and difficult to pull off as the premise of the song itself.

It started with the very few pieces they kept, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Mitch Keller. They added David Bednar, you can count Oneil Cruz however you like. Eventually Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Nick Gonzales, and more.

It’s hard to pull this off, for many of the same reasons Johnny’s plan wouldn’t work. Sometimes the game changes the vision of what works and if you’ve built slowly and surely like this, there’s a good chance you started with a different vision than the one you have now. In other words, they change the design, and you never get all the parts together for one model.

That’s a big reason why this offseason seems so much bigger, because while they’ll add more kids into the mix and go get some help, the very first pieces the Pirates decided to keep are now in some cases entering their 5th or 6th year of losing, and that isn’t good for anyone’s head space.

It’s not that say Reynolds is a guy who is going to look in the mirror this offseason and decide he’s a loser, it’s more to say when you start deciding who your footholds are going to be, you don’t just get to step on them every year without reaching new heights. Eventually they want to know why you didn’t just buy a step stool if that’s as high as you’re going to reach.

Fans hate being double talked to, but players don’t just feel it, they see it and experience it. Of all the places this management team will face pressure from in 2025, those players who have been here, and in some cases been part of the problem must step up and loudly decide enough is enough.

4. Ring of Fire

For me free agency is a ring of fire. You think you’re going to just dip in and get what you need and jump back to business, but once you jump in, you struggle to ever see the outside again.

There are some players I’d like the Pirates to check in on or even straight up go after, but not as many as you’d think for a team that again finished under .500.

I think they could sign 3-4 relievers pretty easily. I can get almost 15 deep on my list of players that could improve the Pirates group here.

But that’s not how it looks everywhere else.

First base is just not all that good. Christian Waker is 34 years old, and received a qualifying offer, which means if you sign him, you lose a draft pick. Not a disqualifier, just an obstacle and observation. Pete Alonso is 30, also has a QA and will undoubtedly be looking at a long term deal or a big money AAV with options.

Carlos Santana is 39 and while he claims to want to play another 4-5 years, he’s going to hit the wall sooner than later. Is this a one year solution?

Paul Goldschmidt is 37, and I bet he could still get a multi year deal somewhere. Beyond these names, I’m sorry, there isn’t a 1B option I think is a sure fire upgrade.

Short Stop you ask? Well, go get Willy Adames or Ha-Seong Kim who probably won’t start until like June or July and even then, you have to hope his shoulder allows him to play there. Beyond that, you’re signing a backup, even on this team.

Outfield, Tyler O’Neill had a great season, and at 30 years old, he’ll have more than a few suitors ignore his injury history and take a swing. Jurickson Profar finally had things snap into place for him, but he’s 32, and he’ll want to profit on more than his potential for once in his career.

Then you get to Michael Conforto, Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler, and Randal Grichuk types, who could all help, but none of them are superstar middle of the order types.

I really think more so than being cheap, this team needs to look a lot harder at trades than free agency.

I keep looking and trying to be creative with free agency, I just don’t see as much immediate help as I think would impact the record here, so I’ll likely spend more energy on trades, and my hope is the team does too.

Again, I’m not saying there is nothing there, I’m just saying I’m not in love with what is outside of the reliever market. I think there is some real value in the starting pitching market too for what it’s worth, I just question they need to go that route.

5. I Walk the Line

There’s something that almost nobody covering the Pirates is going to say out loud right now, and well, I’m gonna. This team will be better next year, even if they stubbornly decide to not add from outside in any major way.

Don’t get me wrong, I won’t be predicting a playoff run if they do next to nothing, but I also don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that they just stay stuck in the mud.

I see a starting rotation that should start in a stronger position than I’ve seen here before. I see a bullpen full of talent that failed in unison last year. That makes them a unit you can’t just return and hope with, but it doesn’t make them all guys we should cast aside like they won’t contribute.

I see Oneil Cruz ready to break out, Bryan Reynolds continuing to be steady, Nick Gonzales figuring out how to be an MLB player, a deep pool of catching talent, multiple options to play around the diamond, some vets, some kids.

An outfield that is largely green and untested, but talented.

Yeah, coaching. Yeah, performances that weren’t great in 2024. Yeah, guys who don’t have the ceiling we hoped. But there is a lot of room for improvement too, and I’m positive we’ll see some.

I want them to add, I think they will, but maybe I don’t feel quite as bad as some for the simple fact I believe they’re a couple good additions from accomplishing something. I prefer this to wishing they could get 2 or 3 big name players for a shot.

Bottom line, I don’t think they’re as far away as the environment surrounding them wants to sell, and I believe it’ll be apparent by mid season, most of their improvement will have indeed come from inside.

Is GM Ben Cherington Planning to Stay the Course?

11-9-24 – By Josh Booth – @bridge2buctober on X

This offseason, Pittsburgh Pirates’ General Manager Ben Cherington finds himself at a pivotal crossroads. Having dedicated the past five years to meticulously rebuilding the team, Cherington now faces a “prove-it” year. That comes with a decision: stick to the plan or take a 90-degree turn?

Will Cherington be willing to top Francisco Liriano’s top free agent contract (3y $39M in 2014) to sign a high-impact free agent? Or will the GM orchestrate a marquee trade to improve the offense? Cherington’s tenure with the Pirates has been marked by patience and a commitment to building from within. The farm system now includes a wealth of promising pitching prospects. Pitchers like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones have led the headlines at the major league level. However, the offensive side of the picture is in stark contrast, testing the patience of a fan base hungry for success.

Be that as it may, it appears the pressure is mounting for Cherington and company to show tangible results. Who ever you would like to blame for this is up to you. Unlike blame, our opinions don’t carry much weight when it comes to deciding what they decide to do.

Our conversations and observations have led most of us to believe that this GM has one more shot to prove he’s done enough to remain in this position. While we are so adamant that changing the plan right now is the only way to go, it is entirely plausible that GMBC plans to stay on course with what he’s done.

“Year six,” right? Everyone involved knows that it’s time. Whether you’ve been saying that for a couple years or you are on the same page as this front office. Pirates’ fans have their minds made up what a successful offseason looks like, and it has nothing to do with the number of wins this club has in September 2025. For this front office, it is ONLY based on the number of wins in October 2025.

It took five years to build whatever you call the state of this organization. If GM Ben Cherington believes in the development of this system, his strategy could look a lot different than mine and yours. What does he prove if he makes a 90 degree turn and does something entirely different from the strategy? He proves he was wrong and wasted years in the position. But if he stays the course and in September 2025, this team reaches 85 wins and is in a playoff race, he proved himself right.

A long time to find real answers, I know. Don’t worry, we’ll all still share our opinions. That’s what sports are for, right?

Come what may, this offseason represents a defining moment for Ben Cherington and his future with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Whether he chooses to stay the course to attempt to prove it or pivot towards drastic moves to make big changes to attempt to keep his job, Cherington’s actions in the coming months will be under a microscope. His success, or lack thereof, may decide his fate as the GM.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – When the Levee Breaks

11-4-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

There was no chance I was going to get through all offseason without making one of these Led Zeppelin themed. Simply too influential of a band for me to pass by, and if I’m honest, creatively speaking, the song titles make for some easy subjects.

Let’s go, in case you can’t tell, MLB isn’t being shy about getting the offseason started, and yes, it’s completely appropriate to at least wonder if the Pirates will, much like their offensive approach, see too many pitches go by before swinging in desperation.

1. Ten Years Gone

If you claim to be a Zep fan and don’t know songs from Physical Graffiti, well, you really won’t like references to Coda. Now, this title to me is a beautiful way to describe what happens to an MLB franchise that decides to blow up a team and build through the draft and trade pieces. Ok, the teams that aren’t going to spend more than the bare minimum anyway.

When one of these builds, or rebuilds, or retools or whatever marketing word they use fails, it’s immediately 10 years gone for fans of those teams.

In baseball, it can take 4 years just to see if someone you drafted might wind up being at least league average ya know? You can come in and fire every coach, scout, assistant to the regional assistant in charge of hiring assistants, you know, everyone, and let’s be real, it’ll be at least 2-3 years before you really know if you’ve replaced them wisely, or perhaps acted rashly with a few guys because you didn’t really know them first.

It’s one of the biggest reasons this method of building a championship team tends to not achieve it’s stated goal. Rarely do these teams look at what 5-6 years has produced, kinda like where we are with Cherington right now, see no seasons over .500 and think either that this GM or a new one can rescue it.

In fact, this owner most likely has no idea what he’s looking at to say either way.

This isn’t just hard because they don’t spend on the way, it’s hard because by the time you can call it success or failure, everyone involved is at the end of their rope, and patience. Fans especially.

When I tell you I have no way to know how Cherington will react to this offseason, I mean, he’s either going to double down that he’s right, and he’s going to do very little in an effort to hold onto his dream of a sustainable, long term winning conveyor belt. He’d essentially be saying, 1 more year and everyone will understand.

Or, he could feel cornered and come out looking for something “big” in a trade. In this case, he’d both be recognizing and admitting we aren’t where we need to be, and it won’t happen organically. He’d also be letting go to a degree at least that this has more than a window in it.

2. When The Levee Breaks

When your team is relying on young talent to start coalescing into more than some primordial ooze of players, it’s obvious you must have patience. It’s very hard to do, and there are times when you as a team simply can’t afford to wait.

Sometimes it’s about the skill sets you see that determines how many chances you give a guy. At times you’ll see a kid come up and do incredible things and if you aren’t careful, you’ll start to chase the dragon for 3-4 years trying to get him to duplicate a performance that really probably wasn’t quite as promising as you thought at the time anyway.

For me, “the Levee Broke” for me with Ji Hwan Bae last year. It was his third opportunity to show his skills could translate to MLB. In that time, he could have embraced a contact hitter approach, really honed his base stealing chops, dug in on utilizing his speed to become an elite defender in center. He could have done any of that stuff, or at least I’d have liked to see him try. Instead, I saw the same kid, fast as hell, scared to take off, doesn’t get on enough for it to matter even if he did. Saw the same bad routes in the outfield, the same inadequate double play turns at second. To me, I don’t rule out that someone will get through to him and turn him into a good baseball player, but I don’t any longer see it being here.

Next year, Jack Suwinski is in this zone for me.

Connor Joe was another Levee guy for me in 2024. I needed to see more of a complete season from him and even when he was used more like a bench player late in the season it too didn’t suit him or help him. I don’t think this was ever going to be a player who stayed here longer than arbitration was on the table and at that, he’d almost need to remain a bench type. To me, it was proven to me he doesn’t have a full strong season in him, and even if he did, it’s not good enough.

I’m probably there with Cruz next year in a way. Not that he’s a bust or would be, but next year, he needs to show us what a full season of healthy Oneil at the plate looks like. And it’d be nice if we knew he didn’t have to be a DH.

3. Fool in the Rain

Let’s get nuts. Let’s trade and let’s see if we can’t find deals that work for both teams. Not really my forte, but I’m kinda the only one active on the site right now, so let’s go…

Orioles Receive – SP Bubba Chandler
Pirates Receive – 3B/1B Coby Mayo
That’s it, straight up. We need hitting, they need pitching, a direct swap of top prospects with just about full compliments of team control.

I’d offer the same thing to Boston for Roman Anthony, but I think they’d balk even thought they too need starting pitching. Roman is not a prospect that gets traded, bluntly, Bubba might not be either, but we’re being crazy right?

Guardians Receive – SP Anthony Solometo and SS Tsung-Che Cheng
Pirates Receive – 1B Josh Naylor
Josh is a pending free agent following 2025, but he won’t break the bank, can play first base and if you like him, hey, step up and pay him. This takes two guys who are still relatively high ranking prospects relative to the Pirates system that probably aren’t on a path I can see clearly as we sit here. In other words, I think they still have value, I just don’t see them making it here for whatever reason.

This isn’t a long term answer unless the Pirates make it one, but he has some of that Guardians ball intel and I’d love to see if it could help this team. Worst case scenario, he walks for a comp pick as a FA, and hopefully you have Endy Rodriguez or Bryan Reynolds, or Henry or Joey Bart or Jared Triolo, ready and more of a good bet for 2026. Best case, you like what he does and keep him around for a few years.

It’s hard for me to believe that even as a rental the Guardians wouldn’t have a couple offers and as long as I’m not offering up one our our top prospects, I’m OK with more than one mid tier players.

4. Whole Lotta Love

It was such an out of nowhere treat to find out yesterday that Jared Triolo won the National League Utility Man Gold Glove Award. To win a gold glove as a rookie is pretty nuts to begin with, but, well, Alex does a great job of explaining exactly why it really was incredibly impressive.

Now, here’s the weird thing. I bet by a virtual show of hands, there aren’t too many fans out there who think of Jared as a piece moving forward. I think this much is fair to say about Jared Triolo.

In his rookie season he bounced all over the diamond, played premium defense. The team learned in year 1, there is hardly a position that Jared Triolo couldn’t man capably.

The bat, had ups and downs. He looked off all season long and then finished the season strong once Ke’Bryan Hayes went to the IL. Most of his best hitting has come while manning Third Base. If he can continue to grow his swing into his frame, he could really have some untapped power, if he just becomes a slap hitter and on base guy, great, he’s fast enough to make that count too.

I’m actually excited to see what he grows into. Really excited for a new hitting coach to get a hold of him to.

5. Over the Hills and Far Away

It’s time for baseball to finally do more than list Dave Parker on the ballot, it’s time to elect the Cobra to the Baseball Hall of Fame. I’d read you all his accomplishments but c’mon, we do this every year.

For a while there, he was THE best hitter in the game. He has a colorful history primarily with two of the oldest franchises in the game.

In a 19-year career, Parker finished with a .290 batting average, 2,712 hits, 339 home runs, 1,493 RBIs and 1,272 runs scored.

It’s not going to stack up with everyone who’s in. It wasn’t going to be about his cumulative stats as much as how important he was during his prime.

Just during his 11 years in Pittsburgh, the Pirates won the NL East three times, and finished second three times too, listen, you’ve been here a while, think about that level of success with this franchise.

It’s time. Again.

A Pivotal Offseason for the Pirates Needs to be Consequential for Those Administering it

11-1-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates brass is going to have to make a ton of decisions this offseason, and much like a wild animal, you never know how they’re going to react when they’re cornered.

Desperation and Baseball GMs don’t often mix well. It can sometimes cause throwing caution to the wind, taking the biggest swing that’s actually available to you, and frankly, sometimes it’s just not actually all that big in relation to what the team actually needs.

Conversely, some GMs double down on what they thought was right in the first place. Essentially saying, listen, I was right, you just don’t see it yet, it’s going to come together this year, and its going to be my way.

No matter what you think is right, this is the danger in forging ahead with an effort that at the very least is behind a bit, with all the same cast of characters in charge.

If he’s of the belief they’ve done the right things and we fans simply lack the patience and belief that it’s coming together I think we’ll see things like Jack Suwinski and Bryan De La Cruz platooning in right field. We’ll see Endy Rodriguez and Jared Triolo set up at first base. They’ll trust that all the poor performances from the bullpen last year were more of an anomaly than anything and return most of them expecting bounce backs.

If he feels like this is his last year without results and accepts patience is dried up, I think we’ll see him take a trade that he probably would have easily said no to in any of his previous seasons. Once you decide that you have to change your internal system for valuing trades, and you haven’t done so in recent history, the biggest fear is that you have no idea where your new found boldness crosses over from appropriate response to the need for urgency to oh my god, that’s half our farm for 2 years of a guy who had one good year what are you thinking.

Example time.

Neal Huntington during the playoff run added at the deadline, or more accurately the Waiver Trade deadline in some cases. He brought in players who could help, but they cost almost nothing to acquire. Marlon Byrd and John Buck were acquired for Dilson Herrera to help during a run and help he did. This was a move that matched the urgency of the moment, but didn’t change any plans the team had. On the other side, you have his most famous trade, the Chris Archer deal where he sent out two prospects with MLB experience and nowhere near their ceilings in an effort to recapture a winning team that he claimed would come after a “bridge year”.

Pressure had started to mount and this was his panic move.

I’m not saying this in an effort to say Ben Cherington shouldn’t consider something big, I’m simply saying when you corner a guy and push him to do something he’s clearly not been comfortable with in the past, who knows what they’ll do.

It’s my firm belief that when you as an owner feel your team needs to change course, it’s almost always better to let fresh eyes do it. A new set of eyes won’t care how guys got here, won’t be married to potential they saw 3 years ago, they’ll instead focus on what actually happened in those last 3 years.

In other words, a new GM might think there’s a shot that Bryan De La Cruz and Jack Suwinski can hold down right field, but they’d have nothing tied to it, and there’d be no reason for them to take the risk. They’d upgrade it out of hand.

I look at it like a hand in spades if you will. See, my Navy veteran Dad can just about bid Nil on any hand he doesn’t have the Ace of Spades and he’s got a very good shot of pulling it off. Now if my kids bid Nil, you better believe it’s going to be hard to set them, because they have to have a hand that makes it likely. Different sets of eyes and experience levels change the way you look at the same set of cards.

This is a gamble. And it’s impossible to predict how it goes. We can’t even really call back to Cherington’s time in Boston because first and obviously, he had far more resources at his disposal and the pressure there every single year was probably a lot more like what he’s experiencing this offseason in earnest for the first time with the Pirates.

No matter what, this season needs to be defining for everyone. I’m ready to get started targeting some trades and signings, but I figured I’d start by writing this because unlike the past 3-4 years, I see this offseason as almost completely unpredictable. I mean, they won’t sign Juan Soto, but they could potentially trade for a name that we’d have previously laughed at being brought up. We don’t know where they’ll limit themselves, or how far they’ll stretch their capabilities.

Almost nothing would completely shock me, so in a way, writing about this is going to be freeing, I can let my imagination run wild, all the while hoping they’re doing the same.

It’s do or die, lets see if they keep moving in the right direction or wind up like the White Sox minus the brief playoff run.

Get Serious Pirates! …but Not That Way

10-30-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how and where this team can really improve.

Obviously right? I mean, who in the world is thinking about the Pirates this time of year and not thinking about this subject ya know?

Like anyone on social media, I’ve been tossing out ideas like little trial balloons. Simple things like, hey, lets trade for a first baseman. Clear hole, clear need for upgrade, nothing tried and tested waiting to fill the spot, so of course everyone agrees. Well, not so fast.

See, this was met with more than a few “whatabouts”. What about Endy? What about Henry? What about Triolo? You name the rumor or supposed player with positional flexibility and I’ve heard it.

My question is, if you want the team to get better, or more accurately, appear as though they’ve tried to get better because they could pick any of those players I mentioned, be right, and have real improvement, you kinda have to change the way you’ve been thinking about this team.

See, if this were 2021, I’m right there with you, let the kids start, lets see what we have here. As we sit on the cusp of 2025, I have to change the way I look at it. I have to understand that a team claiming to be putting a playoff team on the field on Opening Day likely doesn’t have all their eggs in the basket of “one of these kids will pan out”.

Even Catcher, you hear about Joey Bart as some locked in starter of the future after his nice season, completely ignoring his previous 3. Because he’s such a “lock”, you often hear people wanting to trade off Henry Davis or Endy Rodriguez, or move them to another position, but again, where are you moving them that wouldn’t prevent you from upgrading?

This is a hard conversation to have, but this offseason, at least in my mind, we’re going to have to go from whining that prospects are being manipulated, and start seeing it as they’ll get their shot if and when the qualified player we brought in fails, or gets hurt, or even better they blow the doors off everyone in the front office and force it.

In that case, the team is going to have to think differently too. They’re going to have to stop sweating the possibility of benching someone who they’re paying good money to should the situation arise, but not bringing in that player they’re paying well in the first place, good luck convincing fans you care, or tried or whatever you want to say.

So tell you what, let’s look at this in a new way. Let’s come up with a list of “rules” for this offseason which if followed will allow this team to straddle the line and give themselves the ability to adjust as the season plays out.

Rule 1: Build Depth From the Top

This sounds simple, but it’s not, at least not here. The Pirates often sign people for depth, like Domingo German, or Chase DeJong, and that serves a purpose, every team in the league signs guys like that, I mean, the Dodgers are absolutely riding Brent Honeywell in the playoffs, and the Pirates DFA’d him. They need to sign depth that pushes down the talent they already have.

Teams like the Pirates don’t do this for obvious reasons, it costs money and ultimately creates dead money, the dirtiest word in the low spending half of baseball. When you get here though, you have to do it.

You need to look at a position like Right Field, see your options, ignore the hopeful projections you see and go get yourselves a legitimate starting option. It might feel like you’re giving up on Jack Suwinski or Bryan De La Cruz, but that doesn’t matter, what matters is that you have tried to fortify a position of pain and now instead of bringing in like a Ben Gamel on an MiLB deal as “depth”, you force Jack and BDLC into a depth role, perhaps even AAA.

You have to be ok with it. You have to be fine with putting MLB players in the minors if they have options and you signed someone better.

Rule 2: Don’t Assume Everyone Will Improve

It’s hard not to, but assuming everyone will improve creates the 2024 Cincinnati Reds.

Paul Skenes might be a rare exception to this thinking, but you’re a fool if you head into the season assuming Jared Jones, Johan Oviedo, Bailey Falter, or Luis Ortiz are destined to continue their upward trajectory.

They all might. That’s far different than banking on it. As much as we talk about the depth of this starting rotation, we should also remember how quickly that can all change through either performance or injury.

I’m not saying they have to go sign another starting pitcher, but if they’re going to, see rule 1, you need to go get a pitcher who you know is going to fit into the middle of this rotation, not someone who you might have to call on if all the poop hits the fan.

Rule 3: Admit Mistakes and Mitigate Them

There’s a fine line sometimes between patience and stupidity. I’d say the Pirates just barely walked that line with Rowdy Tellez.

They failed miserably though with Michael A. Taylor. Feel me?

Lets say the Pirates decide, OK, Bryan De La Cruz had a terrible time after we acquired him, but we believe in him and we’re going to go ahead and tender him an offer for Arbitration. Chill, it’s an example story, not advice…

Don’t let this decision kill the team. Eat the money should he look just as bad and deal with it.

It’s even more real when you actually sign one. Like, let’s say the Pirates decide while long in the tooth they could really use the veteran leadership and bat they hope is still there with Paul Goldschmidt. And come June, you’re paying a 38 year old 10 million dollars to hit .240 with 2 dingers and a .604 OPS, with Endy Rodriguez popping off every time he gets an opportunity. You have to admit it, move on. At least move him to the bench and eat it. There won’t be a bunch of people begging to trade for him, he won’t have much impact from the bench, but you can’t observe Rule 1 unless you also are going to observe Rule 3.

If you have him for more than one year, your testicular fortitude really better be amped up.

Rule 4: Embrace Good Players Being Delayed

You have to. It sucks but you really have to just deal with this as both a possibility and if you ask me, plausibility that you’re very much so going to be holding some guys back.

Again, this ain’t 2021, it’s not about “the kids” as much as it’s about “the best players”.

Take a guy like Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington. Both of these guys are every bit the prospect Jared Jones was, both of them should legitimately have an opportunity to win a spot, but if the team likes where they are, nobody needs to act like these guys are hard done by, instead, you just look at the performance and when you see someone start to show themselves to be the weak spot, THEN you make a move.

Is that wasting talent? Maybe. Is it going to kill their career? No. Is it what is best for the baseball team? Well, as long as who they choose is performing, hell yes.

You can toss someone like Henry Davis into this conversation. Starting in AAA wouldn’t make him a bust to anyone who matters. Meaning, some fans might feel that way, but who cares, if they cared what we thought they’d have a payroll in the mid 100’s right? Henry will either earn his shot, or get one regardless at some point, don’t force it because he’s “supposed to” be here.

We as a fan base have not been in this position in my lifetime. Meaning, a crop of interesting young players with more coming and a team on the verge of cracking .500. I think it’s entirely understandable that we wouldn’t know what the hell that looks like. Frankly, I have my doubts anyone running the team really is thinking like this, but it is indeed what it’ll take to win.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – I Wanna Be Sedated

10-28-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Ahh The Ramones. What can I say, if you love them you love them, if you don’t, you can’t for the life of you understand how anyone could. Sounds like the Pirates in a way, the Ramones have a load of well known and celebrated songs, yet the highest rank they ever reached on Billboard’s Top 100 was 66 with Rockaway Beach. Personally, I could do a 15 Thoughts at 5 today and probably not get to Rockaway Beach on my list of favorites.

Anyway, the Pirates are quiet. That in and of itself is a story because frankly, they have openings they’re supposed to be filling and other teams are making hires all around them. When I say they’re quiet, I don’t mean just the actual event of hiring someone, I mean even the chatter about who might be looked at, a loose list of candidates, sourced by anyone.

Nobody is saying anything yet, and like I said, that can itself be a story. It could speak to not being 100% done with dismissals, it could be the candidates they want are in the World Series (but that hasn’t stopped the rumors about some Dodgers assistants being candidates elsewhere).

If they’re only filling 2 roles, you’d like to think they’d want to get out in front and pick from the best candidates, but that would make sense so, no wonder teams like the Cardinals beat them to the punch.

1. Bonzo Goes to Bitburg

There was another protest march in Pittsburgh yesterday.

https://twitter.com/SwartzCanyon/status/1850698378394415473

I heard estimates of 15-30 people at times during the walk and it got some coverage locally and as I’ve said before, it may not bear fruit, in fact, I believe it won’t achieve much of anything, but at least these folks are trying to do something more productive than just complaining online.

There’s a real message here and it’s not just getting a man they loathe to sell their favorite baseball team, it’s also aimed at potentially shaming him into spending money to improve the product. In other words, they know they won’t likely convince him to sell, but shaming him, well, it’s forced him to do things before hasn’t it?

To me, that’s what really sets this one apart. These aren’t people claiming they won’t watch again, or that they won’t support their team. These are people that just want to see whomever owns their team, even if it remains Bob Nutting, try to at least approach their level of give a crap.

None of these folks are social media juggernauts, yet they grew this from their first event to this one 5 fold. People are hearing about it, people are participating.

This time of year, I’m betting most of their intended audience isn’t even in the city unfortunately, but I appreciate where their hearts are here.

2. I Wanna Be Sedated

Even as the two richest teams in Major League Baseball duke it out in the World Series, and some of us try to ignore the economics in an effort to just enjoy some of the best players in the world doing battle, baseball can’t help themselves from shoving it in our faces.

Even before the series began, the Mets GM David Sterns put out a message that they could and would go after any players they want in the offseason. Just yesterday, the Dodgers pushed forward the idea they’d be in the bidding war for Juan Soto this Winter.

I’m a Pirates fan, so it’s not like I was under the delusion that Juan Soto was coming here, but it’s clear, there are no more than 4 teams in MLB who can even splash in this puddle, let alone get it done.

It doesn’t guarantee a championship, I mean look, the Yankees have him right now and look, they might yet get swept out of the series.

The advantages are numerous. It’s not just being capable of spending the likely to be 500 million dollar plus price tag, it’s knowing if he breaks his leg and misses a year and a half, then comes back as 3/4 of the player he was, they’ll be ok.

Again, 3 or 4 teams can afford to think like that, or more accurately spend like that.

If Patrick Mahomes were to suddenly hit the free agent market in the NFL, every single team that doesn’t have a nailed on franchise quarterback they’re paying would move heaven and earth to sign him. His decision would be based on how he felt the team around him would be, how he likes the city, maybe even team history, the coach, the ownership. He wouldn’t enter Free Agency knowing he has 3 or 4 teams to choose from.

Free agency in baseball works like panning for gold. Everything that falls out of the pan is out there for any team, but the nuggets that stick to the pan, well, those are for a select few and it’s the part of baseball that stinks.

It’s the part of baseball the protests we discussed in point 1 today tend to ignore. Even if they succeed, it’s only going to get a little better, until baseball itself changes.

3. Gimme Gimme Shock Treatment

OK, this one is going to be a list of things that would shock me in 2025.

Bailey Falter – It would shock me if Bailey Falter remained in the rotation all season. And I was already shocked by what he did in 2024. I believe he has the inside position to earn a spot out of camp, but to make it all season long I feel like too many guys I believe will push for an opportunity would have to collapse. In many ways, this is more about other players than Bailey himself. Being left handed in a system that still doesn’t have any ready to replace him makes this hard to envision, but we’ve seen them go with all righties multiple times already.

Henry Davis – I’d be shocked if Henry Davis still looks lost at the plate. For one thing, he’s always been a hitter, everywhere. He may not be an All Star, but he certainly shouldn’t be a “nothing” in a lineup.

Jack Suwinski – I’d be shocked if he didn’t make the opening day roster. I know, I know, he was awful last year, but the homeruns he’s hit in this league, he’s going to get another shot. Even if he’s a strict platoon player, he’s probably good for 20 homeruns and the team might have to eat the warts Jack comes with for the very needed component of his skill set. He’s also in my mind the player who will benefit the most from a hitting coach change, if only because he’s the most coachable player on the team. And that’s both a good and bad thing. Hard to imagine they bring in so much talent that Jack starts in AAA.

4. Howling at the Moon

Winter turns to summer
Sadness turns to fun
Keep the faith, baby
You broke the rules and won

The Pirates have to do something different this year, and friends, it really comes down to being serious about “shopping in a different aisle”. They said it last year, and then didn’t do any of it, now I think they’re going to feel forced into it.

Again, that doesn’t mean they’ll bid on Soto, but it should mean they should take a swing at players like Jurickson Profar, or Michael Conforto, Alex Verdugo or dare I suggest Teoscar Hernandez. A real name, with real pedigree. Someone who IS an answer, not someone who MIGHT be. Even a guy like Joc Pederson could provide what you hoped Jack Suwinski would, and hey if Jack turns out, turn around and flip Joc, he’ll have enough stats to bring something back.

Go after Tanner Scott, or go get Clay Holmes back on your squad. Grip up Kirby Yates, or Jakob Junis. Hell, go grab Luke Weaver from the Yankees and enjoy the back end of the pen experience they’ve given him.

Don’t just say it’ll be different this year. Take advantage of how stacked you are in the rotation and build around it. Give your prospects something good to beat out, not a placeholder you pray gets surpassed by mid season.

5. Outsider

This team needs new blood. New voices in the room. Veterans who have won, know how to win, know what winning clubhouses look and act like and being as they’ve seemingly chosen to return just about every coach, it really has no chance of coming from elsewhere.

When they sign players this year, they can’t just be for their talents on the field, they need to fill another role, because this team is absolutely devoid of it.

Don’t get me wrong, Cutch is a great player, and he’s got experience to share about winning in Pittsburgh, but most guys have heard it by now, and further, they all know how his story ends and it ain’t with confetti.

Perhaps bringing in a player like Paul Goldschmidt who is older and not the player he was could benefit this team in more ways than just the field. He played on a roster that had no business finishing over .500 in 2024, yet they did it. How? I mean they did it with terrible run differential, aging out stars, pitchers that some thought should have retired and a young coach.

I’d like to have him bring some of his special sauce to the team and see if he can’t use a year or two of what he has left to make an impression on some guys who need to experience that quiet leadership that comes from an unquestioned resume.

Paul is an example, not a demand. Anthony Rizzo could potentially provide the same kind of service. All I’m saying it, they need a veteran or two who will perform on the field, but their pedigree and experience might be more important.

The Pirates don’t have much of this. Joey Bart has some of it, but he wasn’t a very active contributor in San Francisco, even so, he sure settled the catching situation didn’t he?

The Pirates can be cheap and still get something like this done. They drafted and developed themselves into this possibility via the pitching staff, now they have to make the most of it.

Reasons to Believe the 2025 Pirates will Improve or Regress

10-24-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The natives are restless, at least some of them.

The last time there was more focus on trying to convince the owner to sell the team, or fire every individual who works for him instead of the actual on field product was 2019 and that complaining and posturing ultimately led to a regime change.

It’s been 5 years, and here we are again.

Thing is, they’re in a different place than they were back in 2019.

Here was their top 10 prospect list way back when, and this is after trading Starling Marte who wanted to leave rather than face a rebuild he’d surely have been traded during anyway.
Mitch Keller, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Quinn Priester, Liover Peguero, Travis Swaggerty, Brennan Malone, Sammy Siani, Jared Oliva, and Cody Bolton.

These players were the backing for a team chalk full of players nearing the end of team control via Arbitration and a host of players who probably shouldn’t have been there to begin with.

They had some players, just not enough and aside from maybe Joe Musgrove and Bryan Reynolds, not many you’d really want to put all your eggs in with. After all, Musgrove was hardly established, and Bryan had just wrapped up a pretty damn good rookie season but he too was anything but a sure thing.

That’s not what this team is currently. They’ve extended a few players and everyone else has years of team control.

The Starting rotation is fleshed out, they’ve at least got some anchors in the position player crop and more kids close.

There’s work to do, and the owner will make it harder than it need be, but there’s a reason I don’t jump on board with all the current day complaining and attempting to get the owner to sell. First, I watched what happened last time, and at best, that’s what we’d get again, maybe that’s actually a good thing if it were to happen again. Second, I think despite popular belief, the team itself will make it at the very least, uncomfortable to carry this all that deep into the season.

It’s not that I actively want him to NOT sell. It’s not even that I believe he never will. It’s just in my eyes, something that will take significant time and attention to both create pressure, and keep the pressure even as most baseball fans in the city are long since on to the Steelers or Penguins, or even a Pitt Football team that could be 7-0 after tonight. OK, Penn State too, just so I don’t ignore how many of you come back home to Pittsburgh.

That natural lull will lead right into the season and man, when Paul Skenes is capping his 3rd shutout of the season in May, I just think the cries to sell will be slowly replaced by the audible sound of cringing when people who have heavily invested in this “movement” try to keep it alive even as you start to move on to rooting for the players on the field.

I don’t begrudge anyone trying. I don’t dislike them or think they’re doing wrong, I guess I just think the timing is funny, because if I’m honest, I think they will indeed get better next year.

Now, it’s only fair that I talk about why I feel they’ll improve and as is tradition here on SteelCityPirates.com, I’m going to talk about the reasons they might not improve too.

Top Reasons to Expect Improvement

The Pitching Staff is Real and Deep – I’m not going to do the whole list of guys and start telling you who goes to the pen or rotation, instead, I’m just going to leave it here, this club for the first time I can recall can enter a season with no additions to the rotation and it would be very hard to claim they were making a mistake. There’s room to grow and reason to expect them to do so too. That’s not to say I’m banking on every pitcher to take a step forward, if they only had 5 guys I thought could start, well, I’m simply not saying this. The backing of others gives me the faith they’ll find 5 who carry most of the weight.

Paul Skenes and Jared Jones Aren’t Just things to Hope For – Yeah, double dipping on the pitching, but for a different reason. Last offseason, the Pirates were excited to look toward these two last year, but it’s one thing to be excited about what could be, and another entirely to have already seen it. This year, when they look to add, it’s with the knowledge they have arguably the hardest part to acquire knocked out and it’s my belief that this, paired with an increased sense of urgency will cause more signings that fit, as opposed to shots at guys who might.

Oneil Cruz is Back to Square 2 – The Pirates must have a star, and I mean a game wrecker type, Oneil Cruz is their very best shot at one who’s already on the team. Most of 2024 was about finishing rehab, trusting the healing process and more than anything, working his way back to the player he was when 2023 ended for him. As the season rolled on, he got better holding off strike outs, hitting lefties and stealing bases. Center field is still a bit of an adventure and I think we can all agree we’d like to see a bit more power. He’s in great position to really show up in 2025.

Top Reasons to Expect More of the Same

Options Aren’t Sure Bets – The things that encourage, can just as easily discourage when it comes to baseball. As someone smart once told me, if you have 3 options, you probably don’t have a good choice in the first place. Well, if that’s the case, the Pirates have a whole lot of “not good choice” spots around the diamond. I can paint a positive picture of the catching situation with Endy, Henry and Joey Bart, or, I can remind you Joey has not done what he did last year before and defensively he’s not all that good, Endy just missed an entire season and well, you watched Henry hit right? The optimist in my likes to think that’s 3 cracks at production, but they could just as easily swing and miss on all 3. I could do this all around the infield or outfield, I could really do it with the bullpen.

Until I See a Multi-year Free Agent Signing…- If you’re going to “shop in a different aisle” as we’ve heard now for at least a year, there’s a solid chance you’re going to have to secure more than the current season to lure them. Yeah, you can give a reliever 10.5 million, you’ll probably get them for a season, but you open the door to a lot more players if you’re willing to offer 2 years at 7 million per.

Coaching – How else can I say it? It was my belief that if you’re going to return almost everyone who was rostered in 2024, but you expect different results, you have to change the coaching. Some guys will get better simply because they have talent and they grow into their bodies a bit, but on a team like this where you have questions all over the place, well, I haven’t seen the ability to identify and deploy the best performers regularly enough. Everyone can point at the bullpen choices, but every coach in the league sucks at this to their fans. To me, I look at Oneil Cruz, who hit lights out against left handed pitching post All Star Break and a coach who still took his clear and away best hitter and dropped him in the order every time they faced one. I’ve moved on from this subject, if only because the team has, but that doesn’t mean I accepted it happily. Let me put it this way, even if they manage to make the playoffs in 2025, I’m fairly certain I’ll wonder if it could have been better. If we were going to see a change in coaching style from the same coach, I think we’d have seen it in 2024, especially the second half.