Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Something in the Way

10-21-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I just had Jason Mackey on my show the Pirates Fan Forum last week. That’s not some humble brag or meant to be promotion, if you listen, you listen, it’s not really about his appearance. The conversations we had before pushing record though, I found myself filled with envy. Envy that he got to take a break from talking about money, while he discussed sports as he now covers all Pittsburgh sports. You know, actual players, making plays.

He’s earned it, but I only cover the Pirates and it’s increasingly apparent you can’t have even the most baseball of baseball discussions without money, spending, economic imbalance, protest ideas, whatever, you know what I mean, anything but baseball.

I’d just ask that when I write about something that has nothing to do with money, please do me a favor and know, I’m aware it’s there, it just doesn’t need inserted into every single discussion we have. If that’s not good enough for you, it’s way easier to find what you’re looking for than what I and we are doing here at SteelCityPirates.com.

Oh, and this week is an homage to Nirvana, and that intro directly applies to that something in the way, and it’s the economics of baseball, and the fact it allows for an owner like ours.

Let’s go…

1. In Bloom

All teams have to play young players, with varying degrees of patience of course. All fans at some point have to accept the learning curve and the pain that comes with it at times.

In sports, you’re often seen as being as good as the last set of numbers you put on paper, and the younger you are, the fewer you have to look at. It’s why for most prospects, the height of popularity is before they’ve debuted.

People are blinded by the stats, and even people who purposefully try to smack themselves upside the head to remember that AAA isn’t the same as MLB can’t fully allow themselves to have it alter their expectations of what they’d see if the player was called up.

So they tend to come to MLB with the fan expectation that they’ll be awesome from the jump. Again, even the fans who do account for it and expect a bit of an adjustment to the jump.

It’s not a perfect science. Sometimes you do get a Paul Skenes, or Bryan Reynolds, but far more often you get a Jared Triolo or Nick Gonzales.

The very first thing I think we all need to see and embrace this offseason is, just because you saw a prospect perform a certain way last year, it likely will not be reflective of what he’s actually capable of.

That doesn’t mean the Pirates should rely on Jared Triolo to be the starting first baseman in 2025, it just means if he takes a step next year, YOU might want them to.

When you look at prospects, stick to the skills, and know it’s going to be some time before you really have numbers you can trust.

Bryan Reynolds just completed his 6th season. He’s had ups and downs of course, but somewhere along the line, you probably stopped wondering what he could be, or “if” he would finish evolving. Along that same path, most of you had a moment where you finally stopped wondering, and started accepting, this is Bryan Reynolds.

He’s in bloom if you will. It’s why signing players to extensions often winds up being so important. Most players don’t reach that magical green zone of trust until very close to the moment Free Agency becomes at least close enough that most players can taste it.

2. Come As You Are

When the Pirates look to sign free agents, they tend to be attempting to fill a hole. The problem is, they usually don’t fit quite right and the only thing that changes is the Pirates expect more from the signing than they should have.

This time, the Pirates need guys to just come as they are.

If you sign a guy to eat innings, let him and maybe don’t ask him to setup for the closer. If you bring in a guy to play part time, remember you had a reason for thinking that was his role.

None of this is to say a player can’t exceed expectations and earn themselves more playing time or responsibility. It’s just to say, the Pirates tend to allow necessity or scarcity to determine players need to fill a bigger role.

The best way to overcome this sort of syndrome is by bringing in better players in the first place. Bring in Rowdy Tellez and Connor Joe to play first, you’re setting yourself up for this scenario playing out. Bring in someone who’s been a starter successfully, and in recent history, and you probably avoid it.

This is the proverbial shopping in a different aisle we heard tale of last offseason. Here’s hoping increased pressure makes it so.

3. Dive

On of my favorite songs, and you’ll likely never hear it on the radio. Trust me though, this is a jam. It’s also a B-side to Sliver, arguably their best album.

I probably could have made this about the Pirates record diving after frothing fans into believing they were in the race, but instead, I’m going to make this about diving into this roster looking for players I actually think could take a big step next year and why.

Have to have some MLB experience for this entry. No fair pointing to Bubba Chandler in other words. This is all about the players I see taking another step.

Nick Gonzales – Nick hit .270 on a team that just about nobody hit for average but his OPS of .709 shows room for improvement in both on base percentage and power. Nick is a guy who has a ton of power, so the hope is he captures a bit more of it even as he finds a way to draw a few more walks. He’ll enter his 3rd year, and he’s the likely starting 2B when his cleats first touch grass this Spring, but he’s also got competition all around him and repeating his 2024 won’t keep him there. Time for a step.

Henry Davis – This is arguably the easiest player I’d mention, IF we were only talking about improvement. That’s not what this is though, this is about taking a step. I believe Henry will do exactly that in 2025. He focused on defense last offseason, and this year he’s been dispatched and told to think about offense all offseason. I expect him to become an MLB player this year, and even if that’s a league average player, it’s a step.

Paul Skenes – Yeah, I know, he’s already been great. Taking a step doesn’t always come from being bad and suddenly being good. Paul is going to take a step in 2025, and its going to come first and foremost from throwing a lot more innings. I expect many of his cumulative numbers like WHIP and ERA to head in the wrong direction to achieve this goal, but the overall body of work will take a jump. He showed us in year one how quickly he learns lessons and attacks his progression, expect that to be in overdrive next year.

In the comments, give me some of yours, and tell me why? Tell me what they showed you that makes you believe a jump is in there.

4. Lounge Act

My all time favorite Nirvana tune. It’s a “radio song” that never became one really, but everyone and there mother loved Nevermind, and maybe having it not be on the radio constantly like so many other tunes from that LP is the very reason it became my favorite.

Small market, low spending, cheap leaning, teams all seem to forget they’re in the entertainment business.

Fans, like us, are supposed to just accept that because our teams can’t spend like the Dodgers or the Yankees, we should be ok with taking 4 or 5 years minimally every time our team manages to be ok for a few seasons to work their way back to being ok again.

The part they forget is that every time you replicate this cycle, especially if you fail to even reach OK in some of your attempts, the fan base suffers.

There is no entertainment when there is no chance of competitiveness and unlike the cap leagues where a bad team can at times completely remake their franchise in one offseason, a failed attempt in baseball equals a solid 4 or 5 years of paying for it or worse, trying desperately to make it happen despite evidence it isn’t happening.

A salary floor might at least force teams to field something that attempts to entertain, even if it’s not a solution that really fixes the situation entirely either.

Baseball teams being run like businesses as opposed to entertainment troops is a big problem in this game. Fans like us are guilty of laughing at teams like the Angels who for years had Ohtani and Trout together, yet never managed to field a competitive team. It’s true, but those fans were entertained, and they showed up.

Thinking like this isn’t in Bob Nutting. But it would be nice if it were in Travis Williams a bit, because new shit for kids to climb on in the outfield isn’t ever going to be the main reason fans show up at the ball park, fun players who might hit a homerun once a week do.

There is no cure for not spending in baseball, and there’s no cure for not understanding why you should either.

5. Territorial Pissings

I’m happy the Pirates fired Andy Haines. Long past due if you ask me, but I also wonder if Derek Shelton and Ben Cherington have perhaps marked their territory a bit too well to hope for the big time change this club really needs.

In other words, is the fix really just replacing the person delivering the message or is the message being delivered the real problem? More than that, with the retention of Shelton and Cherington, is there actually enough Christmas tree air fresheners to cover the stink and give someone a better shot at actually helping the hitters or should we expect they truly believe Haines just didn’t say it the right way?

I was completely dissatisfied with Ben Cherington’s answer when asked what would change with the approach. Honestly, it’s mostly because it really wasn’t coherent, but it also didn’t seem to leave room for A. what Haines did poorly, vs B. what a new hire will do much better.

The biggest concept put forward was that they needed to simplify the message, and while that’s true, it’s pretty clear the message itself probably needs work too and it was barely referenced.

By choosing not to cut deeper than the assistants to the assistant, this club is telling us the plan is fine, it just took them 3 years to see it wasn’t being applied correctly.

That to me is reason number 1, 2 and 3 they should have moved on from more.

Again, I’m not going to harp on this all offseason, but if my job was on the line, I think I’d start with more harshly examining where we failed and I’d make sure I cut as much of that failure as possible.

The Pirates Enter the Offseason with a Big List of Questions

10-18-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I like to do this every offseason. Because it’s almost exactly how I start every regular season. A list of questions that need answered.

You can just look at the win column and determine this isn’t a club that has all the answers, but until you identify the questions, it’s hard to stop yourself from just spiraling into a mood that prevents examination.

So here we go, I’ll present the question, ways it could be answered along with my expectations. I’m going to start with what I consider the big 3, there are more of course, but these 3 in many ways will both ask and answer even more of them.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’ Back

Question: Can he stay healthy and on the field?

Finding the Answer: There’s no way to answer this one but to see the season play out. And I mean the entire season. Nobody including the team should feel good about this because he shows up to Bradenton in the warm Spring sun and starts poking wind blown balls out to right-center. We need to see how he is, how it changes his production and more than anything, how the team and the doctors have decided to ensure he has what it takes to last all season long.

My Expectation: I expect the Pirates to limit Ke’Bryan Hayes to 4 or 5 games a week, and unless the bat proves invaluable, which to be fair it hasn’t very often beyond a stretch here and there, that’ll be it. They’ll need to rely on the network of 3B capable players they’ve grown and acquired, like Nick Yorke, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to ensure the team feels like they can properly rest Hayes and keep him productive without a huge fall off. If it looks like one of the backups has potential to play more, and Hayes has played well, I could see the Pirates potentially looking to move him, but before any of this plays out, I just can’t see the value being at a place where considering it before the season makes sense.

My Fear: He struggles at the plate and it has nothing to do with the back. Let me be clear, he’ll likely always have some tenderness with his back. Curing back pain is something few ever actually achieve. So I don’t mean like he has absolutely nothing he plays through. But if he logs say 130 games, they’ve tried like hell to keep him strong and he still isn’t producing, they’ve got some real issues to deal with, up to and including a very expensive bench player and glove specialist. Expensive for what I just described, not a starting 3B.

The Starting Rotation

Question: There is a lot of talent on the mound, but how do they best deploy it?

Finding the Answer: For the first time I can remember as a Pirates fan, I could name a complete pitching staff of MLB players that will all very likely be back. The Pirates need to understand what they have, and what they have coming, and they have a key advantage they didn’t have in 2024, they don’t have to add in two rookies and ask them to set innings records to get through a season. They do however need to ensure they aren’t blocking potentially superior talent, and not waste the talent already here in the process.

My Expectation: They start the season with Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller as virtual locks to be the headliners of the rotation. I believe they’ll truly let Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler battle for a spot too, but I think they’ll only allow one to secure a spot if that makes sense. I don’t sense the desire to play the innings restriction game all year again to the detriment of the entire rotation. I think Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, Bailey Falter, the two previously mentioned prospects, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mike Burrows will all compete for a chance, and I wouldn’t rule out more than a few winding up in bullpen roles. I wouldn’t even rule out a veteran signing, but if they do that, it needs to be of a higher quality than we’ve seen in recent history. This isn’t a year for a shot at help, if you bring it in this year, it has to BE help.

My Fear: They overthink this and do something non-traditional. The 6-man rotation was a necessary evil last year, but if I have Paul Skenes in my rotation, bro, I want to see him pitching every 5th day. I want guys like Mitch Keller on a schedule, he works better that way. I want the rotation and the backing to ensure I don’t have to watch “bullpen” games. My fear is they’ll believe themselves smarter, do something they see as revolutionary and in the process minimize a strength this franchise has rarely had.

Bryan Reynolds

Question: Can Bryan Reynolds Move to 1B?

Finding the Answer: Here’s the thing, the Pirates kinda need this answer before they attack free agency, and perhaps they already do, but it’s far cheaper to acquire corner outfielders than it is to acquire first basemen, and there are far more of them to choose from too. There’s also an angle to this that potentially means more than helping Bob spend less than me might have to, Bryan has a contract, and he’ll be 30 this year. Moving him to 1B could help him keep his legs under him better and as a switch hitter, it’s the perfect everyday position to make sure he runs through the tape as a Pirates player.

My Expectation: I feel like they’ll toy with the idea, but won’t move directly toward this being a reality. STATCAST might hate Bryan Reynolds as an outfielder, but he’s also not a guy you’re going to hear a lot of naked eye observers suggest “stinks” as I often have pointed to me. I think the Pirates will look at their roster and see Oneil Cruz as the only cemented outfielder aside from Reynolds and he’s only been there since like this morning. I guess if they had like 5 positions locked up and feeling solid, you might feel like you can move one of your established guys, I’m just not sure they’ll feel that steady this offseason. Even if a big part of me hopes they do.

My Fear: They’ll play games with this. Try him at 1B here and there during the season and almost make him part of the picture there. To me, Reynolds is an all in player, put him where you want him, give him time and if he’s physically capable he’ll be best suited staying right there. I’d much prefer they treat him as such. I guess the biggest fear is they kinda consider him someone who could play there, maybe they even experiment with it, then it lowers what they bring in to man the position, feeling they have the backing of something like this.

I’ll do more of these as the offseason goes on, but to me, the answers to these questions almost more than any others will wind up telling the story of 2025. Sure they’ll sign guys, and trade for others, but these will be the in house questions I’ll be focusing on all year. Answer them well and they’re a lot closer than they feel right now.

Jared Triolo earns finalist honors for Utility Gold Glove Award

10-15-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on Twitter

Jared Triolo has been named a finalist for the National League Utility Gold Glove Award, given out by Rawlings Baseball every season to represent the best defensive players by position.

Triolo is a finalist alongside Kike Hernandez of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Brendan Donovan of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Per Fielding Bible, Triolo ended the season with seven defensive runs saved, which ranked third on the Pirates roster behind Isiah Kiner-Falefa(15) and Ke’Bryan Hayes(10), with Hayes winning a Gold Glove in 2023 at third base and Kiner-Falefa, who won the award in 2020.

As far as the other contenders for the award alongside Triolo, Donovan ended his season with St. Louis with a zero defensive runs saved metric, while Hernandez had five defensive runs saved with the Dodgers during the 2024 regular season.

Triolo played five different positions for the Pirates this season, logging 500-plus innings at third base, 374.2 innings at second base and limited time at shortstop, first base and right field. Per MLB.com, Triolo was credited with three errors on the season and had no lower than a .985 fielding percentage at any of the five positions he played, including a perfect fielding percentage in right field, first base and shortstop.

Although Triolo has never won a MLB Gold Glove Award, he is no stranger to defensive awards, as he was named the MiLB Gold Glove Award winner in 2021 for his defensive prowess with the Pirates High-A affiliate, the Greensboro Grasshoppers.

The previous National League Utility Gold Glove Award winners were Ha-Seong Kim of the San Diego Padres and Brendan Donovan, who’s looking to win his second Gold Glove as a utility defender, with the distinction for utility defenders to win the award not being introduced until 2022.

If Triolo were to win the award, he would become the 21st Pittsburgh Pirates player to win a Gold Glove and just the sixth infielder to do so, joining Hayes, Bill Mazeroski, Gene Alley, Jay Bell and Jose Lind.

The Gold Glove Award winners will be announced by Rawlings on November 3.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Simple Twist of Fate

10-14-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Oh man, it’s a Bob Dylan week for Five Pirates Thoughts at Five, so I’m sure it’s gonna be soulful and filled with meaning, even as you struggle to decipher my words. lol

Bob is one of those artists you either appreciate because you grew up listening and just get it, or you’re one of those people who’ve heard his great songs performed by others and had no clue he had anything to do with them.

Sounds like a minor league coach to me.

Let’s go…

1. Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door

A perfect example of a Dylan song that was picked up by another band, Guns-n-Roses and popularized for a new generation. Many kids my age grew up thinking GNR created an incredible and totally original piece, but some of us art student types, well, we knew better, even if we liked both versions.

The Pirates used the Arizona Diamondbacks last offseason as an example of how close they were. 84 wins and a trip to the World Series, and look how close we were to that? They spent most of Pirates Fest bringing it up, pointing to it, holding it up as a reason to believe you should ignore what your own mind was telling you as you looked at the roster.

I expect they’ll do it again this year with the Royals and Tigers, and that’s kinda my point.

We’re likely not going to be as accepting of this message again. Sure, those two 86 win clubs didn’t make it as far as the Diamondbacks got, but they got into the dance and again they’ll be able to show how close they are.

Here’s the thing, they’re right, they aren’t all that far away from sneaking in, but the part they never seem to get is that fans don’t want to hear your goal is to sneak into contention, we’d like to hear how you plan to be in contention and hold off the other teams who felt they had the same chance.

Aiming for the lowest bar of success is not a winning strategy, and I simply don’t want to hear it framed like that in any way this year, even as I’m nearly 100% convinced it will be their focus.

2. The Man in Me

Dylan fan or Big Lebowski fan, good shot you love this song.

This segment is going to be about Jack Suwinski.

Nobody more than Jack is in need of discovering exactly what he is, not what they tell him to be, not what they give him to work on, but what he himself feels makes him a good player.

Spare me all the Jack shouldn’t start stuff, I get it, and I’m not trying to tell you he should be named the starter before Spring Training, or that they should even leave a space for him, he has options after all and the point is that Jack needs to discover himself and show the team what he’s found.

If he thinks he’s a guy who can hit 30 homeruns and strike out 150 times, fine. Go get it. If he thinks he’s a guy who should shorten up, strikeout 80 times but only hit 20 dingers, OK, that can work too. What he can’t be anymore is a guy who’s caught in between delivering nothing of value.

The first couple years of a guy being promoted goes differently for different players. Jack is a pleaser and he tried to be affable to every suggestion the team made. Many players will wake up and snap out of it somewhere during that process, but Jack just tried to try harder to accomplish what the team asked.

He’s on his last leg here in Pittsburgh and for a guy who’s shown incredible and easy power at the MLB level, I’m of the belief Jack is his own last best bet. I believe Jack needs to find his own game, more than that, he needs to find his belief in himself.

Jack could be a complete non-factor in the ultimate playing out of the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates, maybe that’s the most likely outcome, but this power starved team would be wise to leave the door cracked.

Jack would be wise to find a way to be in position to kick it down.

3. Forever Young

Teams that don’t spend much money tend to start out with the belief they’ll be able to trade off their team, build up their system expertly and essentially create a pseudo fountain of youth that never allows the team to age out.

Thing is, almost nobody can actually do it. The Rays can’t even do it without a stumble.

The truth is you’ll always need veterans, either veterans you cultivated yourself or new ones you bring in. The Pirates bring in veterans, and they bring plenty of experience and wisdom with them, the problem is, they’re usually a bit too long in the tooth to lead on the field.

Admitting you have to eventually add a different class of veteran leadership is hard. You look around the room and you see character leadership like Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, but you have to be honest about what you’re seeing on the field.

This team has a lot of youth, and they play like it, with very little noticeable irritation from anyone who’s been here for half a decade or so. Rowdy Tellez did a bit of it with Oneil Cruz this season, but again, he was producing nothing but fan ire this year, so when Cruz let his words and animated action on the field directed at him roll right off his back.

Look, Oneil might well have had the same reaction to someone like Paul Goldschmidt over at first, but you have to try. You have to create some kind of accountable leadership structure, especially if you’re not going to require it come from the coaching staff, and frankly, if they’re expecting that, they haven’t been watching.

They have a few holes they can fill, regardless of how they do it. I’m simply saying they need more than just players, they need players who have been on winning teams and are painfully aware of what a losing culture looks like.

By retaining this staff, they’ve all but ensured any culture change is going to need to come from changes they make, which to me puts even more importance on the type of players they sign and the charter they give them when they’re hired.

To be effective, it would be great if said player(s) didn’t feel they might be gone at the deadline, so maybe a couple year contract could help.

The Pirates need to step out of their comfort zone. Something they’ve done very poorly through the years, but when you leave very little room for change, you better make the few you create meaningful.

4. I Shall be Released

Making hard decisions is part of the gig when you decide to be a baseball executive, and frankly, this team hasn’t created all that many really difficult ones.

Connor Joe, Alika Williams, Joshua Palacios and Ji Hwan Bae are 4 players who the Pirates have team control over who could very well be let go.

These shouldn’t be very hard.

Bae has gotten multiple chances to allow his speed to show it’s value at the MLB level, and it simply hasn’t happened. Maybe a new hitting instructor would allow him to be what he could be as opposed to what they wanted him to become, but something tells me the hitting coach had little to do with his failure to have it translate to the Bigs.

Connor Joe has proven over two seasons he doesn’t have the stamina to last all season. Perhaps if he was used as a bench player in the strictest sense of the word he wouldn’t wear out, but just as likely, you wind up simply not getting “hot” Joe at all, instead replacing it with no real path to do much of anything more than hold down a spot when needed.

Palacios had energy, power and a penchant for a big hit in a big moment, unfortunately, he’s also probably not good enough to represent THE lefty you call off the bench. He was a nice surprise, but on a team masquerading as a playoff contender probably can’t afford this being on your 26-man.

Alika Williams, man, the glove is exceptional, the bat isn’t. He’s hit in AAA, he hasn’t hit in MLB. Can this team afford to carry a glove only SS on the bench? Would he start in AAA even? Not likely. I think it’s time, nice try.

5. Like a Rolling Stone

Like a complete unknown.

That’s how it is for Pirates fans who don’t pay a ton of attention to the minor leagues. Jared Jones was someone that nobody saw taking the jump he did last year and he was a rookie. 2nd year players tend to take a step back or a leap forward, you rarely see them put the same performance out in each of their first two seasons.

The Pirates have a lot of these types of players coming back in 2025 and if they can get more leaps than steps back the Bucs might just wind up “shocking” the baseball world, but there is no path to where they want to get without it.

They need Nick Gonzales to go from mildly impressive rookie to a second year player who really looks like a player others would want on their team. Not good enough for the Pirates, good enough that any team who doesn’t have a nailed on starting 2B would too, hell, maybe even some of them might see him as an upgrade.

Those are the kind of leaps they’re going to need from some guys. Realistic or not, it’s what has to happen.

They don’t all need to, that’s just not fair to expect or ask for, especially again with the coaching we’ve all decided should be gone, but they do need to see it. Endy, Henry, Jack, Bryan De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz, hell Ke’Bryan Hayes, they need step up seasons from guys or they can simply never add enough.

The Pirates Upcoming Offseason Starting Point

10-11-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m probably a bit behind on my normal offseason schedule for writing. By now I’ve usually talked about a lot more than the non-tender deadline decisions and arbitration award estimations.

I just haven’t felt like it. I needed to step back from this season a bit so I could digest it, if only to escape my own emotions.

You’ve seen it in Five Thoughts if you’re a regular reader, most of my entries have been pretty wide, really lacking in the type of team evaluation we try to do here. It’s part of why I decided to do all of them with a musical theme, I needed it so I could keep going.

Frankly, many of you don’t really seem ready to dive in. Some have decided the fight for bigger changes is not over. Some have accepted the changes even if it ticked them off, meaning, “fine, but this is it right?”.

The comments are caustic much of the time, the views are down, the listens are too, we all know it, we all feel it.

When you’re having a hard time yourself getting motivated, and you think you’re probably doing it for an audience that is likely to not be in a good mental place to take it in, if they bother at all, well, let’s just say like Yin and Yang, you and I, we’re pushing and pulling each other.

Today, that ends for me. It’s time to start talking baseball again.

Yinz can catch up with me when you want to later, or you can just tell me “fire Nutting”, like I said on the show this week, have at it, hope it happens, I have work to do.

Lets Go!

The 26-man Roster

I like to do this every year. I like to look at the current roster, and the players we know are coming back and construct what I see as the 26-man roster with no changes at all. No new players added to it, no trades, no signings, just straight up, this is what we’d trot out there if we fired the GM and didn’t hire a new one until June.

The Starting Rotation (5)
Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter

The Bullpen (8)
Mike Burrows
Dennis Santana
Kyle Nicolas
Colin Holderman
Carmen Mlodzinski
David Bednar
Johan Oviedo
Braxton Ashcraft

Position Players (13)
Joey Bart (C/DH)
Endy Rodriguez (C/1B/DH)
Henry Davis (C)
Bryan Reynolds (LF/1B)
Oneil Cruz (CF/DH)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (INF/CF)
Nick Gonzales (2B/SS/3B)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B)
Liover Peguero (SS/2B)
Nick Yorke (3B/COF/2B)
Jack Suwinski (RF/CF)
Bryan De La Cruz (LF/RF)
Jared Triolo (INF)

Now, you can quibble here and there. I think they’ll keep Bednar and De La Cruz and move on from Joe, maybe you don’t, that’s fine, either way, this is probably very close to their best 26. I’ve also left Cutch off, because technically they have to do that before I can call him “here” and you’re welcome to remove anyone you like from that list.

I don’t look at this list like I’m not going to make changes, I look at it as a starting point, and likely the bank of players who will serve as the replacements for injury or poor performance.

This also doesn’t pretend Bubba Chandler has no chance to win a spot, again, just what’s here and on the roster.

The other notable I’ve left off is Billy Cook, I just ran out of room, but sure, you can swap him in for someone too.

How Much Work Do We Have to Do?

Again, some of you aren’t ready to talk about this primarily because you think the person making these decisions shouldn’t be here. Sorry…

First thing for me, I need to understand their intentions with Endy Rodriguez and Bryan Reynolds. If either of them is going to become the everyday first baseman, it changes a heavy lift this team has to get done this offseason.

If they choose Bryan, look, he’s going to play there just about every day, so obviously you don’t need to sign one and you have Endy, Jared, Billy Cook, minimally who can hang there to back him up in the 15-20 games he doesn’t play the field.

If they choose Endy, well, we better hope he hits, because that same list, a bit shorter minus Endy himself will be backing him up and I’d feel you have to go get an MLB quality backup, maybe even a Dom Smith type because you wouldn’t want to sign a starter if you’re going to give Endy a real shot at it.

If the answer is neither are going to do more than spot start there if at all, OK, you must go get one.

This has to be a real starting quality first baseman. Doesn’t have to be Pete Alonso but it probably should be someone who started most of 2024 and produced. Trade for it, sign it, whatever, you have to get it, filling first base this offseason is non-negotiable.

Next, I think I’d turn to corner outfield, again, making the call on Bryan Reynolds factors in here which is why I really think making that call needs to be early on. I’d go get one regardless, but if Bryan is a 1B, you need a sure bet producer, if Bryan is sticking out there, maybe you can just let it play out with Yorke, Cook, Suwinski, De La Cruz. Again, I’d go get a proven producer like Michael Conforto if I could either way, it’s one of very few wide open positions you can add some punch to.

Maybe a short stop. They have a lot of options to play the position, but none that really intoxicate me. Maybe a Paul DeJong type veteran who has some pop and can play the position well enough would make me feel better.

Relievers. Specifically lefty again. Chapman is a fine name, but there are others who could fill this bill well too, and probably cheaper. Get a few. Trade for guys with options, they don’t have enough unless they tap into their starting pitcher stable in AAA. They must bring in someone who has lived in the 7-8-9 landing zone for a few seasons, let’s bring in some veterans and lets get some kind of identity that isn’t all about one hometown guy. We need a shark tank not one renegade.

Guys Need to Improve

You hate hearing it, they love saying it, but some of these youngsters quite frankly have to improve.

Oneil Cruz seems happy with the move to CF and he has work to do in order to be good out there, as always he’s starting with a physical advantage. At the plate, he fought all year to get back to where he was at the beginning of 2023, now it’s time to take a jump. There could be almost no bigger or more important to the overall cause happening than Cruz taking a step.

Ke’Bryan Hayes needs to either be healthy or the team needs to minimize his role and eat the salary. Listen, if he gets beaned and misses time, that’s not what I mean, but this team never wins a damn thing unless Hayes is at least a hitter you don’t consider an automatic out.

Nick Gonzales in my mind put his foot down a little this year and declared he’s a Major League player, now it’s time to add to his skills. Clean up the on base percentage a bit while keeping the clutch he’s shown and this is a player.

Henry and Endy are obvious, of course they need to step up, at least one.

All the other kids like Jack, Triolo, Peggy, De La Cruz, Cook, Yorke, and all the pitchers too, well they all need to look like they knocked some of the kid out of their game, and De La Cruz probably doesn’t even belong on this list, he just played like a lost kid after he got here.

So yes, get better.

Some of the team’s improvement absolutely has to come from this function. Yes, yes, this is why I too would have moved on from Shelton, but again, that’s done for now.

How Bad is it Really?

Know what? Honestly, I don’t think it’s bad.

I really think the playoffs are there, at least from what I see on the field. I can honestly say I like their roster better than the Detroit Tigers who are a win away from the ALCS. The Tigers are hotter than hell, but all season long, they weren’t. I’m happy for them, truly, but I wouldn’t trade rosters with them. Maybe that makes me crazy. I’d for sure like a few of their bats and who the hell wouldn’t want Tarik Skubal? But their bullpen is pitching out of their minds right now, and they’ve got some kids who simply have no idea this is supposed to be hard quite yet.

Truthfully, I think this team is a couple decent moves, and that could be trade or signings, away from being in the dance next year. I don’t even really see it as a stretch.

Funny thing is, I don’t even think we’ll really need to ask Nutting to do anything all that scary for him. I mean, I don’t care about scaring him, but in my mind, that makes it more likely they actually do what they need to do.

Go around the diamond. Just like I did. Every position you want to bring in a starter for is a kid who isn’t getting a shot to progress. That’s fine, you have to do that to improve your team for sure, but have it in the back of your mind when you make your decisions.

Do you want to upgrade SS or 2B and risk pushing Nick Gonzales to the bench? Maybe you do, I’m not telling you it’s wrong, I’m just saying it’s what you have to consider.

Ok, first of many everyone, I’ll catch you whenever you jump on the train!

MLB’s Playoff Structure Might Change How Teams Approach Building

10-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

One thing I think we’ve seen in the few short seasons with the new playoff format is that how you got there doesn’t matter.

Wild card who barely snuck in? So what. Division winner who lead their division from start to finish? Who cares. Have the biggest payroll in baseball, well, you might win, but it probably won’t be because you spent more than everyone else, it’ll be because you got extremely hot at the right time.

Let me stop you before you put on your Pirates Fan hat and convince yourself I’m trying to tell you it doesn’t matter what they spend. That’s not the point I’m making at all, instead I’m saying you’d be foolish to believe teams haven’t seen what has transpired since this all began.

The league made getting into the playoffs easier than it’s ever been, and further, they’ve made best of 3 series dictate the fortunes of the 4 teams who miss out on a bye, all while the two bye teams sit there getting rusty even as their eventual opponents get battle tested even more.

Look, this playoff could still very much so feature the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees in the final 4, so it’s not like the big spenders are hurting here, it’s just not as much of an advantage as it used to be.

The spending gives them more bites at the apple than the non-spenders, but once everyone has arrived at the farmers market, the apples are just as accessible for everyone who showed up.

The owners who don’t like to spend or can’t or won’t or whatever you want to believe, like Bob Nutting will take this all day long. Remember how they crowed about how great the Diamondback run was in 2023? It wasn’t just that they spent only marginally more than the Pirates, it certainly wasn’t admiration for how they built it. The reason for their enthusiasm was simply that a team that barely squeaked in made it all the way to the World Series.

It was proof that they didn’t need to build a perfect team, just a team that managed to win a little more than they lose during the regular season.

I’m not saying that’s the goal, of course teams would prefer to win 100 games and make the playoffs by winning their division, but if that difference from say 85 wins and 100 is 30 million worth of player payroll, let’s just say unless someone can prove the chance is like 75% lower to win it all, guess what most of these guys won’t want to do.

Other sports are like this too of course.

In the NFL 14 of the 32 teams make the playoffs, the NHL 16 of the 32, and the NBA 16 of 30, so MLB having 12 of their 30 make it is hardly uncommon.

MLB doesn’t have a salary cap though, so all of the low bar stuff we discussed for getting in, well, what would be their incentive for doing so in those other leagues? Everyone for the most part spends within 20-25 million of each other, you know, that’s how a cap system works.

I don’t know where all this leads, but I know so far it’s gone just about how many of us who really don’t want any new incentives for the frugal to act as such hoped it wouldn’t.

If baseball isn’t going to institute a cap system, maybe this is the best compromise, maybe making it easier to get into the dance is the best some of us can hope for.

Tell you what though, with the new CBA agreement coming up in 2027, I’d imagine the top spending teams who are funding all the low spending clubs with revenue sharing aren’t going to just sit back and enjoy watching their 300 million dollar squads getting taken down by 88 million dollar rosters who managed to find their way into the contest.

I’m enjoying the playoffs, and it won’t bother me one bit if a team like the Tigers manages to win it all with their low payroll. That said, there’s no denying a team like that winning is not likely to go unnoticed or without being answered.

If the Pirates manage to squeak in next year, trust me, I won’t cry about it being unfair, but I’m not a big market owner who likely paid for it, as well as their profits.

The Pirates starting pitching staff is in a good place

10-10-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on Twitter

I wrote yesterday about Paul Skenes and the ceiling he has for his career moving forward after a historic rookie campaign that will be hard to match from a pitcher ever again.

With that said, Skenes has phenomenal, and gathered most of the attention throughout the season, but looking at the starting pitching staff as a whole, it was clearly the best unit the Pirates had in 2024 because of the efforts of the entire group, not just Skenes.

Take Jared Jones, the other strong rookie pitcher the Pirates had in their arsenal, who made the team out of spring training after 16.1 scoreless innings and 15 strikeouts in Bradenton and had one of the more impressive debuts we’ve ever seen from a Pirates pitcher versus Miami, collecting 10 strikeouts in 5.2 IP while allowing three earned runs.

Jones, unlike Skenes, had more turmoil over the course of his campaign, the biggest being his lat strain that sidelined him for considerable time from July 4 to August 27. Even before the injury, Jones showed signs of fatigue, allowing five or more earned runs in two of his four starts before heading to the injured list.

A 5.06 ERA in September was more indication of fatigue from Jones, but with the full sample available, which included a 4.14 ERA in 121.2 IP, as a rookie, you’ll take those numbers from a 2020 second round pick who will no doubt be apart of the rotation moving forward.

Like Skenes though, Jones is a fireball thrower, eclipsing 100 mph quite a bit across his 2024 campaign and used strikeouts as his main catalyst for success, collecting 132 of them, which ranked third on the roster. The second half struggles warrant some worry, but with him now completing his first full campaign in the bigs, the expectation is that more innings should come and those signs of fatigue should dissipate, meaning Jones next step should be a fun one as potentially the second best pitcher on the staff.

You then move on to Mitch Keller, who had a strong argument to be an All-Star once again in 2024, posting a 3.46 ERA in 114.1 IP before the All-Star Break along with 105 strikeouts. He didn’t make the mid-summer classic, but he was still as strong as his breakout 2023 campaign prior to the break and solidified himself once again as a consistent pitcher worthy of his extension he received prior to the season.

Post All-Star break is where problems arose, as Keller posted just one victory in 12 starts along with a 5.65 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio also dropped, as prior to the break, he had 105 strikeouts to 30 walks, and after, 61 strikeouts to 20 walks.

From 2023 to 2024, to further point out his struggles late, Keller’s ERA, wins and WHIP all increased while his strikeouts decreased. Also, per Statcast, his fastball run value dipped considerably from last year to this year, from plus-11 to plus-3, the biggest change in any run value on any type of his pitches.

Keller’s hard hit percentage allowed jumped from 35.6-percent last season to 39.3-percent this year, resulting in the third highest hard hit percentage he allowed in his career in a season.

With all that said, 2024 was a step back for Keller, but his numbers were still in range of his past two seasons. Keller made 30-plus starts again, and although the increase in numbers happened, they weren’t considerable enough to have massive worries.

Keller will remain with the staff, there’s no doubt in that, and he hasn’t left doubt in his play at any point over the past few seasons in the first half, but the second half has been the call to action for improvement. Having a trio of Skenes, Jones and Keller is formidable enough, but taking a step back and looking at what else the Pirates have truly makes the entire staff a formidable one.

One of the biggest surprises of the 2024 campaign came from Luis Ortiz, who entered 2024 being left out of the starting rotation, thanks to the offseason signings of Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez and the emergence of Jones, starting the season in the bullpen with Pittsburgh.

Ortiz impressed in his time in the bullpen, posting a 3.45 ERA prior to his first start of the season on June 26 versus Cincinnati, where he struck out seven Reds hitters across six innings while allowing just one earned run.

Ortiz never looked back following that start, posting a 1.75 ERA in July with four starts and five appearances, which included 20 strikeouts. He followed that with a 4.19 ERA in August and 3.97 ERA in September, collecting 19 or more strikeouts in each month.

What was most impressive out of Ortiz was his command, which made a much better return than what was seen from his command in 2023, as his walk rate dropped from 12-percent to 7.6-percent while his strikeout rate increased from 14.8-percent to 19.2-percent.

On top of the command returning, Ortiz added a cutter to further enhance his pitching arsenal, but his fastball returned to the dominance we had seen in spurts in 2022, as hitters versus Ortiz’s fastball slashed .187/.209/.331 with a xwOBA of .308. Compare those numbers to 2023, where hitters slashed .383/.371/.704 with a xwOBA of .520, and you see clear improvement with his most important pitch. Ortiz also brought down allowing hard contact, dropping his hard hit rate against from 49.1-percent to 37.7-percent.

Exiting 2024, it is hard to not imagine Ortiz as a starter with what he was able to do in his 15 starts this year as well as becoming a major success story out of the international signing period. If the command remains consistent, like we saw this year, Ortiz should be a strong candidate for the back-end of the rotation moving forward and, at worst, be a viable option in the bullpen, both of which we saw this year.

Another surprise was the performance of Bailey Falter in 2024, who was all but expected to be moved out of the rotation at some point due to his poor performance from last season.

Instead, Falter impressed, posting a 4.43 ERA across 28 starts in 142.1 IP, with the innings count coming in at second on the roster. 2024 showed what a full sample of Falter’s 2022 campaign, a campaign that featured a 3.86 ERA in 16 starts and 20 appearances overall and was the most comparable season to what we saw in 2024.

Falter posted the highest strikeout total of his career, collecting 97 strikeouts this season, 23 strikeouts higher than his previous career high. His WHIP of 1.29 was also the second best mark of his career when he starts more than 10 games and he also allowed the lowest batting average against of his career, surrendering a .260 opponent’s average.

The Statcast numbers will not fly off the page by any means for Falter, who ranked no higher than the 56th percentile in any major Statcast category outside of extension, where he ranked in the 99th percentile at 7.3.

Falter is by no means a centerpiece of the staff, but he helped the Pirates a ton in 2024, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in two months this year and remaining mostly consistent throughout his season and offering much needed innings when injuries and transactions changed the staff through the summer.

Could Falter be in the rotation in 2025? Surely, and most likely, but the Pirates starting pitching staff will be in a good place with not only what we saw this season, but what could be on the way as well.

Currently, five of the top eight Pirates prospects are pitchers, with the highlight being Bubba Chandler, who could very well make his way to Pittsburgh next season. Braxton Ashcraft also has a case to make noise next season despite late season injuries, while Thomas Harrington, Anthony Solometo and Hunter Barco all have strides to make in their pursuit to the majors.

Mike Burrows also made his MLB debut late this season after a long recovery from Tommy John surgery and could make a case in spring training to be on the big league roster with the right play, much like we saw with Jones this year. You also have the return of Johan Oviedo from Tommy John at some point in 2025, but its unclear whether the team considers him a starter or a reliever moving forward.

If you are keeping up, I have mentioned what would be two, full pitching staffs if these players were all to pan out, which they rarely ever do, but depth is king in today’s baseball when it comes to pitching, and plenty of teams would gladly trade places with the Pirates as far as pitching is concerned right now.

This also doesn’t rule out the Pirates making a trade or acquiring another starter via free agency this winter, especially with potential questions arising with injury concerns, which every team deals with in today’s game. If they do indeed though, expect it to be a similar acquisition to what we’ve seen in previous offseasons, in which the Pirates have acquired veterans that they could move at the deadline and eat much needed innings in the first half.

Before any moves are made though, the Pirates pitching staff and what lies behind it are in the best place of any group on the roster, and for a team that doesn’t spend a ton in free agency or the trade market for top-end pitching, its a commodity that should help the front office fill clear needs this offseason without having to put a massive emphasis on acquiring pitching like they have in the past, so for now, enjoy this well above-average staff because things could change, but for now, the Pirates starting pitching group should be among the best in baseball when next season arrives.

Oviedo Could Bring Pirates Pitching Back On Top

10-9-24 By Josh Poe – @DaRealHanYolo on X

The last time I wrote, I talked about Endy Rodriguez and his role and importance to the Pirates in 2025. I wanted to flip that coin and talk about another player who was out all last year, Johan Oviedo. Johan is an interesting case because in 2023, he quietly became the number two in the rotation behind Mitch Keller, and when he went down, I was sad because he showed me he could be really good in 2023.

While his numbers don’t smack you across the face with how good they are, the thing I find interesting is that it seemed like Johan would have a great game and then a bad game.

For instance, there was a stretch where Johan had three starts and only gave up two runs over 20 innings. And then the next start he had, he gave up six over five innings.

What is noticeable from looking at his starts in 2023, is I believe that he has the capability to be a good piece moving forward. If you look at his savant page, it is very interesting as he has a very good grade for breaking stuff and has great velo on his fastball.

My issue is that he walks too many batters. If he can get the walks under control, that will help him take his next step. The thing I want to talk about, however, is what Johan could mean to how the Pirates handle this off season.

The first way to look at Johan is in the rotation. If you stack up Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jarred Jones (given all are healthy), you need to fill two other spots. There are a few options such as using one of the rookies in the pipeline. Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Thomas Harrington are a few names that pop up. However, one of those spots could be taken by one of these guys, and the other spot could be for Oviedo. This leaves a question for Luis Ortiz and Bailey Falter. I think Ortiz was fantastic in 2024, and while I think he is a good starter, I would like to use him as more of a 6th starter/ bullpen piece. If you can retain this rotation, it makes their off-season easier. Take a player like Kirby Yates. He had a 1.17 era over 61.2 innings. The kicker here is Yates was paid only $4.5 million while Chapman was paid $ 10 million. You could put a good hunk of money and try to get a good bat. 

The other way to look at Johan is moving him back into a bullpen role. This may be a good idea for him to be eased back into throwing so he doesn’t re-injure himself. The rotation builds out in this way the same top 3 (Skenes, Keller, Jones), and then you can use Chandler and Ortiz in a way where they could be given a short leash and bring in Oviedo. The bullpen in this scenario would shake out like this: Oviedo, Dennis Santana, Dauri Moreta, Ryan Borucki, and Kyle Nicolas – ramping up Oviedo and then swapping him into the rotation for either Chandler or Ortiz down the season. I am not worried about how the rotation shakes out, barring any injury (knock on wood). What I am interested in is how they decide to build out the pen. I think the foundation is there for a good and strong pen, even though it was what tanked the 2024 season. I think one of the issues with the ‘24 pen was that Bednar was not himself, and they chose not to do anything about it. Holderman was a little too overused and then he just lost all confidence. Chapman was either insane or very bad, and the rest was a lot of injuries. In the case of Nicolas just taking some time to figure it out, I honestly don’t think it was as bad as people say. I’m not saying it wasn’t bad, but there are things that I genuinely think could be positives come 2025.

Johan Oviedo, to me, is someone that could help the Pirates get over the hump next year. The Pirates have a crucial decision regarding how to use him next year and how to build out the roster around this decision. But, they have one of the hardest things accomplished in baseball, which is having a dominant rotation. So fear not, Bucs fans. I think this staff will be pretty good come 2025. 

Paul Skenes turned in a historic rookie season, and it’s just the beginning for him

10/08/24 – Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Paul Skenes debuted on May 11, and with his debut came a playoff like atmosphere at PNC Park, watching something Pirates fans had never truly seen before, a generational pitching talent donning the black and gold.

Yes, there’s been highly touted debuts in the past, such as Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and even Mitch Keller, but what Skenes brought to the majors this year was special for a variety of reasons, from just how quickly he began dominating opposing hitters to smashing through Pirates rookie pitching records.

After the dust settled at Yankee Stadium after two perfect innings, Skenes ended his rookie campaign with 133.0 IP, posting a 1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP en route to becoming the unquestioned ace of the Pirates staff, and his accolades this season further just how great this year was for Skenes.

Skenes became the fifth rookie pitcher to start an All-Star Game in 2024, becoming the first to do so since Hideo Nomo in 1995. He showed out as well, setting down Steven Kwan, Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge, allowing only Juan Soto to reach, not bad right?

To add to the further history of the All-Star Game start, Skenes tied Mark Fidrych for the least amount of starts(11) heading into the midsummer classic as the starter, so the list goes on and on of the accomplishments we have seen from Skenes already.

The National League Rookie of the Year has not yet been announced, but Baseball America voted Skenes their Rookie of the Year, while fans across baseball have debated between Skenes and Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill for who should win the award.

What Merrill has done in San Diego has been phenomenal for the Padres, who of course are going at it with the Dodgers in the NLDS currently, but Skenes was outright historic, and the likelihood of seeing another rookie campaign from a starting pitcher like the one Skenes had is highly unlikely, not impossible, but highly unlikely.

Nevertheless, the Pirates now have a pitcher who ranked in the top-15 in the NL in strikeouts and wins, all at the age of 22, and now that his first full season is done and dusted, looking forward becomes the thought process, especially considering just how fragile pitchers can be in this day and age.

Skenes showed signs of fatigue at points of the year, seeing as it was his first full professional season, but his willingness, and well, ability to navigate the season and play at such a high level throughout his rookie year is what has Pirates fans, and baseball fans, so excited, because when Skenes pitches, you almost don’t want to leave the television because you don’t know what could happen next.

So, how does this strong rookie season influence Skenes’ play moving forward?

It’s hard to imagine that Skenes doesn’t continue to get better as he matures, which sounds insane to say with how he carries himself already, but seeing his innings count increase will almost be a given heading into next year, which also means we could see Skenes not only contend for a Cy Young award in 2025, but he could also eclipse 200 strikeouts, which was done by Mitch Keller in 2023 most recently.

Now, Skenes made it through this season healthy, and with pitchers dropping like flies more than ever recently due to injuries, it will be in the back of the minds of fans surely, but with optimism that he stays healthy, the ceiling for Skenes will only continue to rise.

Watching Skenes rookie season was magical and full of moments Pirates fans surely will never forget, but it’s just the beginning for Skenes and 2025 should be just as, if not more exciting than 2024, and boy does that sound fun already.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Big Love

10-7-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

In case you haven’t caught on by now, every edition of this feature all off season is going to be themed by some band or performer I really like. You have to find ways to entertain yourself when you write a lot and I needed something that helped me think through things I’d like to get out there every week.

Sometimes you can get stuck just staring at a blank screen and nothing seems to come out, so coming up with a gimmick like this helps me keep the juices flowing. If you have a request for a band to be featured, let me know, so long as I like them too, I’m all over it.

This week is Fleetwood Mac, and the Title “Big Love” is because as frustrating as this team is to follow at times, they remain exactly that, my Big Love.

As to baseball, man, Playoff ball has been a blast this year and one thing is painfully obvious, most of these teams are living on anything but a plan as it comes to pitching. That doesn’t mean everyone is pitching badly, it just means they all have tired or beat up staffs and beyond a pitcher or two the plan is “find a way”.

I big love it in a way, but I do miss the marquee match-ups we used to see between two big arms who have lead their staff all season. I’m sure we’ll see that eventually as they play out, but early on it’s been a complete shuffle of everyone there is to get 27 outs come hell what may.

Let’s Go!

1. Seven Wonders

There are probably more than 7 of these if I’m honest, but hey, they wrote the song, and it’s as good a place to stop as any right?

  • Isiah Kiner Falefa Starting Short Stop? Yeah, I’m not so sure that’s how I’d deploy him, but his 7.5 Million dollar paycheck tells me the Pirates probably won’t allow him to be a utility player at that rate, but I can’t see him as the starting SS on a winning team. The bat is plenty fine for the position, but his glove isn’t best suited for the spot and if we’re settling for less offense, it has to come with superior defense.
  • Is Bryan Reynolds Moving to 1B? Seems to me, this is like the very first thing this team has to figure out. Before they explore free agency or trades, it feels to me like the feasibility of moving Bryan to 1B has to be at least gauged. It would be best for the team if he did, outfielders are much easier to buy than first basemen.
  • Can a Hitting Coach Make an Impact if the Philosophy Doesn’t Change? I’ve described Andy Haines philosophy in the past as a very basic and true to 99% of baseball list of sentiments. I’ve also made plain this is actually a Ben Cherington philosophy. The biggest issue with Haines was his ability to identify issues and help correct them and implementing his concepts with players from AAA to MLB. I think there’s hope for sure the next hire does much better.
  • What if Hayes Can’t Keep His Back in Order Again? Bluntly, if everything they’ve tried to do to help Ke’Bryan can’t both keep him on the field or help him be effective, they’ll simply have to eat his pay and either make him a bench player, trade him for whatever they can get or cut ties all together. We’ve already seen they have a ready replacement for what he’s become, what they haven’t and can’t easily replace is a healthy Ke’ contributing to the best of his ability. Tough situation, but one that must come to a head in 2025.
  • Is David Bednar Worth Arbitration? The Pirates sure speak as though this is a no brainer and maybe that’s because if everyone was being honest the Pirates would accept some responsibility for how his season played out, at the very least, they’d acknowledge they made it hard for him. There’s been tipping, injury, embarrassment, and failure, to the point it’s utterly impossible to see the team offer him his full arbitration estimate, I’d much prefer they offer 20% less than he made this year and see what happens.
  • Is Endy Rodriguez the Missing Link? Injecting a switch hitter with speed and pop into this lineup could really be important. That said, I want to give him the same grace we gave Oneil Cruz after missing a season. This could be a big infusion though, sometimes I get lost trying to picture where I’d put him in the lineup and how a productive Endy could lengthen the whole thing.
  • Will Derek Shelton Finally Manage for Now? There’s been a plan, and like it or not, think it’s a good plan or not, Derek has been executing it along with his GM Ben Cherington. I made clear that I’d have moved on from Derek, but since they chose not to, it’s time to see if he has different in him. If the only goal becomes winning now as opposed to “getting better” or “giving opportunity”, will it look different? More importantly, will it produce different.

2. Over My Head

First, I always think of this song when I think of Christine McVie who recently departed us.

Many people throughout the years have tried like hell to understand exactly what baseball teams make and spend. They’ve tried to understand revenue sharing, who gets it, who doesn’t, who gets how much, how much of it do they use, what can they use it for?

I could go on, and on.

The truth is there are some very good sources out there for the finances of baseball, but there are just as many terrible, unscrupulous sources who pretend they have all the answers.

Only 1 source is truly vetted, both approved by the Owners and the Player’s Union and that’s the Forbes Report that comes out every December.

As it comes to the outgoing payroll implications, and should you want to know them as the season is ongoing, a Pirates fan could of course check in with Ethan Hullihen and his publicly available spreadsheet of gospel.

Even he, by far the most dedicated to the hunt for as much information as possible I know only has so much he can get his hands on.

The truth is, baseball is not obliged to have fans see what’s under the skirt.

They’ve avoided the US Congress getting their hands on their books, at least getting their hands on them and making them public. They only show what they need to show and for their own preservation they fully intend to keep it this way. In fact, it’s arguably a bigger reason for there being no Salary Cap than the Players Union, because step one of getting a cap in place is open and honest book keeping.

Book keeping that is transparent to the players would make things fair for both sides much like the other major sports leagues who can off the top of their heads tell you exactly how much percentage of revenue players get, often more than 50%. That very much so is not the current case in MLB.

Numerous sites have tried of course, but Statista, Spotrac, whatever you choose, they simply don’t have access to all the things MLB teams pay for, let alone what is sanctioned under the CBA or acceptable use for Revenue Sharing funds.

Essentially, it’s above your head, my head and everyone who isn’t directly involved in the business that is baseball and even then, you probably only have the information for the organization you work for.

The simplest way to put this is, if you’re just a fan, trying to dig up everything you can, please trust me when I tell you actual teams of smart financial investigators have given up on what you proudly push on social media as though it’s easily solved.

You don’t know. Period.

It’s above your head. And yes, Bob is still cheap.

3. Big Love

There’s one reason we Pirates fans keep on keeping on. We love them.

For some of us, it’s become more about hating ourselves for how much we love them or because we can’t stop watching. For others, it’s remembering the triumphs of the club in your youth, eclipsed by years and years of wishing just once your kids could experience what you did.

Much of the time it feels like the people running the team don’t share in our affection.

This franchise is bigger than this ownership group.

The history is incredible, with roots that stretch all the way to the very origins of the game itself. For many of us, our parents passed on the love and most of them inherited it from their grandparents.

My grandfather used to love telling me about the city when Maz hit his famous World Series winning homerun against the Yankees. This Sunday it’ll be 64 years to the day. My Dad told me about when he was a young man in the Navy and met Roberto Clemente loading up for a mission trip, one of these trips would one day cost him his life but that chance meeting represented the one baseball story my typically disinterested in sports father would share with his baseball crazy son regularly.

My own children watched the last Pirates team who made the playoffs with me and neither of them understood why their father fell to his knees when they lost their last opportunity. They’d just watched me go through a divorce, move back in with my parents and have to take a pass on paying a bill to take them out to Burger King, and according to one of them, losing the Cardinals series was the first time they saw me cry.

That’s nothing to be proud of, it’s just how I was brought up. Maybe being a Pirates fan helped teach me my emotions were my own and not to be flaunted, either way, this team is deep inside of my everything.

If only those in charge could absorb even 10% of that feeling about this franchise, perhaps they’d understand why one more shoulder shrug about not winning isn’t a nothing burger we should all just accept.

4. Landslide

The Pirates Bullpen was a force of nature. An unstoppable force rolling down hill with absolutely nothing capable of stopping it from tumbling until the inertia finally dried up at the bottom of the run.

It always starts with something big. For the Pirates, it was the very foundation of the Bullpen, David Bednar collapsing and under his wake, every fiber of what kept this bullpen together had nothing to latch onto.

Oh, they tried. They tried Aroldis Chapman, and Colin Holderman, even Dennis Santana for a time, but there was no way any of them were prepared to be the foothold. They all tried and they all had spells where they were absolutely the best pitcher in the bullpen, but none of them were the anchor of the unit that tied everything together, the rock that everything else grabbed onto when things were at their worst.

Once this bullpen no longer had the steadiness of one spot they could always turn to, suddenly nothing was steady. It happens that way sometimes and this entire year was an exercise in futility as it came to a solid ramp to closing out games, all stemming from not having anyone who was a lock to put the final stamp on things.

Nothing easier you can do to make a team look like there’s nothing they can do right faster than to roster a bullpen that can’t finish games.

Every team will go through a stretch like this, but for the most part unless they were completely understaffed and outgunned to begin with, they remain blips. I don’t know about you, but when just about everyone thinks a unit should perform in a certain way and then said unit doesn’t, chances are the team was adequately prepared even if the results ultimately weren’t there.

No excuse there, but believing you have what you need and being shown you were wrong isn’t the same as believing you’ll find a way to get enough out of what you know isn’t enough.

5. Go Your Own Way

People love to see themselves as independent thinkers.

Those who don’t allow others to define their beliefs, or allow groupthink to dictate their feelings.

Thing is, that’s a hell of an ask for most of us. We’re influenced by things every day, even when we don’t think we are.

Peer pressure, celebrity endorsements, “experts”, or even your favorite journalist stating their opinion, maybe for some of you, even just someone sharing their opinion like me, are all examples of influence, some you recognize as such, others you just take in regardless, never the wiser they’ve cast any influence in your direction.

When you look at this team and decide how you feel about their chances next year, the rest of this decade, even just this offseason, I’d just like to say the only way to be sure you are forming your own opinion is to not be afraid to hear or see as much information as you possibly can.

If you’re mad about the way this team performed in 2024, you aren’t alone, just make sure you’re mad about things that actually made you angry, not what others told you to be angry about. Just because someone tells you the reason X, Y or Z happened is because “they don’t care”, well, it might be 100% the case, but it also might be the conclusion that someone came to based on information you might see differently were you so fortunate as to have heard or seen.

More than that, as you make your comments all over the place, keep in mind, most of everyone you’re commenting to have listened to the same exact sources you have. At least change the words, at least take some steps to make the thought your own as opposed to just parroting what someone else said.

There’s plenty of reason to hold ill will toward this club, but if you want to really make people laugh, be sure to comment all day the verbatim headline from some hit piece earlier that day.

It’s going to be a long offseason, the team made the decisions they made, even if we think they’re wrong to make them.

Personally, I’m not going to start my evaluation from a standpoint of everything is wrong and it can’t be salvaged. The alternative is “Owner Bad…Me Give Up”.

It may be true, but to me it’s boring as hell.

I wanna talk ball, that’s the plan moving forward, but what would a Fleetwood Mac themed 5 thoughts be without some really deep looks at our own issues?