Mitch Keller Didn’t Have a Disastrous Season, but He Hardly Answered the Bell Either

9-27-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

In just about every measurable way Mitch Keller took a slight step backward in 2024.

He’s had brilliant starts, and some downright stinkers too, but what the Pirates needed him to be in 2024, well, overall, he didn’t answer the bell.

Let’s not get crazy, this is a valuable pitcher, his contract, the details of which I’ll get into a bit later here is completely acceptable, even for what he did this year.

Veteran pitchers who stay on the mound, deliver innings, can take over a game, usually keep you in it when they don’t, can get a K when they really need it, listen, to say what Keller is getting paid is the going rate is perhaps too simple.

So let’s compare.

Mitch Keller made $5.85 Million in 2024, it’s the last time he’ll make single such an amount, as it escalates to $15.411 in 2025, $16.911 in 2026, $18.411 in 2027 and finishes at $20.411 in 2028.

When I say this isn’t a bad contract, it’s because I’m looking at what a player like this makes on the open market, not because I think should he replicate these numbers in 2028 the Pirates would be happy or feel they got great value for their dollar.

For that $5.85 here’s what he delivered. It’s not a top of the rotation line is it?

You’ll recall many of us on this site trying very hard to remind people what Mitch Keller was vs the expectation you were probably going to have that this was an “ace” style deal. Truth is, this is an average MLB pitcher deal, with an AAV of roughly 15 million per year. Right now, he’s a very middle of the road, middle of the rotation type pitcher.

That’s ok, it’s just not a progression that a 28 year old should be having, these are supposed to be years where he grows into that higher paycheck.

Maybe a comp will help me get this across.

Enter Kyle Gibson, the 36 year old journeyman who got paid 12 million this year by the Cardinals and via option he’ll return to make the same thing next year.

Now, Kyle is on the other end of his career, he’s supposed to be slowing down, he’s supposed to do less of the heavy lifting at this point. Guys like him, this is what they make in this league, so if you can lock a younger guy up who’s already here and you think he has room to get better than that, well, this is the kind of risk this team needs to make and have traditionally rejected.

I’m not going to rewire your head in one article. If you think Mitch makes too much or this is a risk the Pirates shouldn’t have taken, I’ll simply say, a guy like Kyle Gibson is who they’d go get to fill the role, and history says they’d probably aim a bit lower.

To me, I’ll take the homegrown player in the middle of this rotation, surrounded by kids, some of whom pitch better than him, again, I don’t need him to be the ace, I just need him to be able to look like it once in a while and have his lows come about a bit less often.

All that being said, the Pirates need more from guys they extend than they’ve gotten. Bryan Reynolds maintained his level of output, but Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes fell back, Mitch is not a health issue, so I and I’m quite sure the club expect more.

One thing I don’t think has gotten enough play, Mitch Keller had to adjust his schedule and timing to help accommodate on boarding and getting to the finish Jared Jones, Bailey Falter and Paul Skenes.

Seems like it shouldn’t be a big deal but Mitch has gone every 5th day for just about all his career and more than almost any pitcher they’ve had in recent years, a complete creature of habit and comfort.

Change his catcher, he’s off. Change the opposition’s lineup even slightly after he’s game planned, he’s off. Mound landing zone a bit soft, he’s off. Change his schedule in any way, and yeah, you guessed it, he’s off.

It had to be done, the alternative was to keep him on his schedule and shuffle everyone around him, I can totally see why they wouldn’t want to go that direction.

It’s unclear how the Pirates will approach their rotation in 2025. For one thing, we don’t know who’s coaching or General Managing. For another, I can’t see wanting to minimize a healthy Paul Skenes, so I think we’ll see the team jump right back to a more traditional 5 man rotation, potentially with a swing man who can pick up a start during 7-10 day stretches of play.

So Mitch should get back to his comfort zone a bit. He’s also going to have to get past having an extreme veteran catcher, because I think he’s going to get a healthy dose of Joey Bart and two kids, and he needs to be ok with it.

Lastly, for the second straight year, Mitch Keller’s Cutter has been a problem. He throws it like 12% of the time which is a huge drop from the close to 25% he threw it in 2024 and here’s the thing it got hit at a .316 clip last year so it makes total sense to minimize it, this year opponents hit .272 off the pitch, but the key is the Slugging. In 2023, .503 and then this year, .593, and you can’t even blame luck, the XSLG or expected slug both years was actually around 30 points lower, which would still have me featuring it.

The pitch has to go, or he has to find a way to keep hitters from picking it up. Right now, all it does is move less than his sweeper and come in a bit faster but players can tell the difference and it couldn’t be more clear.

It’s part of why I have been so underwhelmed by the mummies they keep buying to catch and act like they’re defensive and game calling Gods, this cutter issue has been apparent, and I mean Mitch himself acknowledged it to me at Piratesfest last year. He likes to throw it because it’s easier on his arm, but the pitch isn’t working, again, change the shape, throw it harder, throw it less, drop another similar pitch, something has to happen, it’s far too obvious to persist another season.

Something else has happened over the years, and it’s minimized the effectiveness of this pitch further as well as his relatively new sinker. Look at what’s happened to his arm angle.

I don’t know enough about pitching to tell you this is wrong. I just know enough to tell you this steady of a change can change the effectiveness of offerings you’ve long since established. Again, this is where I turn it over to the experts. I can tell you this sort of thing doesn’t happen unintentionally, it also doesn’t happen in the dark.

To get where they want to go, Mitch Keller needs to be a firm number 2 or 3 in this rotation, and if he gets passed by Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, whomever, it needs to be because they pitched better than Mitch, who still pitched like a firm number 2 or 3.

Either way, this wasn’t the type of season I’m sure Mitch hoped he’d deliver, let’s hope the extra arm rest he got while being part of this rotation in 2024 nets a fully rested arm who is far more productive next year and helps bring about what Mitch has always wanted to be a part of, playoff baseball. He’s actively been building up his arm with that goal in mind for half a decade now.

All that’s left is to finally pitch like it for a full season.

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (74-85) at New York Yankees (93-66)


9-27-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

I’m a bartender and one of the more funny things I hear from my good buddy Brian Chose, “There’s always time for one more.”

That’s the case for the Pirates, who will be playing their final series of the 2024 campaign this weekend, as they head to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees.

In actuality, this series is virtually pointless for both squads, as the Pirates have been out of playoff contention since September kicked off and the Yankees clinched the American League East with a victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, but these are still games that matter in the record column nonetheless.

For Pittsburgh, winning the series would allow them to match their 2023 record of 76-86, while a sweep would make them one game better than they were a year ago. New York is still in a fight for the number one spot in the AL, with Cleveland right behind them, but the Yankees have already secured a first round bye in the postseason.

This series will still feature some of baseball’s best players in Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Oneil Cruz, Paul Skenes among others, and Pirates baseball is Pirates baseball, so let’s take a look at the final three games we’ll see in 2024.

9/27
Yankees – Carlos Rodon (L) – 16-9, 169.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 190 Ks/53 walks, 1.21 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) – 6-8, 117.1 IP, 4.14 ERA, 125 Ks/37 walks, 1.18 WHIP

9/28
Yankees – Luis Gil (R) – 15-6, 146.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 166 Ks/76 walks, 1.19 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 11-3, 131.0 IP, 1.99 ERA, 167 Ks/32 walks, 0.96 WHIP

9/29
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt (R) – 5-5, 81.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 88 Ks/26 walks, 1.16 WHIP
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 8-9, 139.1 IP, 4.26 ERA, 97 Ks/42 walks, 1.26 WHIP

Yankees: Gleyber Torres

The Yankees offense has been led by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge all season, but September has been a great month for Gleyber Torres, who leads the Bronx Bombers with 101 at-bats this month and is slashing .327/.378/.455 with three home runs and 13 RBIs.

Torres also has an .849 OPS in the past seven days, and as a 1.5 WAR player on the season, its tough to find better timing for his game to heat up as the postseason approaches.

Pirates: Nick Gonzales

Second baseman highlight the “Who’s Hot?” list for the final series preview, and rightfully so, as Nick Gonzales has had quite the month of September, slashing .288/.352/.350 with seven RBIs.

Gonzales has slowed down a bit over the past seven days, posting a .644 OPS, but with his month being impressive, one hopes he ends the season strong in New York.

Yankees: Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. was the marquee trade deadline acquisition for the Yankees, giving them another offensive weapon, but he hasn’t been that weapon in September, slashing .207/.283/.268 in 82 at-bats this month.

Chisholm Jr. only has five RBIs as well, so the Yankees will be hoping he can ramp up the Jazz band as the postseason approaches.

Pirates: Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds has been the most consistent offensive player for the Pirates this year, but September hasn’t been kind to him, as he’s slashing .227/.296/.318 in 88 at-bats this month.

Although Reynolds leads the team in RBIs this month with 11, his numbers aren’t where they’ve been throughout the season, let’s hope he has a strong finale.

Key Injuries

Yankees: DJ LeMahieu(10-day IL), Jake Cousins(15-Day IL), Nestor Cortes(15-Day IL), Mark Leiter Jr.(Paternity), JT Brubaker(60-Day IL)

Pirates: Henry Davis(10-Day IL), Ke’Bryan Hayes(10-Day IL), Kyle Nicolas(15-Day IL), Ben Heller(60-Day IL), Daulton Jefferies(60-Day IL)

Starter Spotlight: Almost Ro-Done

9-27-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pirates head into the final series of the year taking on the Yankees and veteran southpaw, Carlos Rodón – who is having a bounce-back sophomore season in pinstripes after his lackluster first-year foray in New York.

Following a 6.85 ERA over 64.1 innings of an oft-injured 2023, Rodon has posted a 3.98 ERA over 169.2 frames this year, improving his K rate (22.4% to 26.6%) and dropping his walk rate (9.8% to 7.4%) in the process.

He is far from the Cy Young-type form of the  2021-22 seasons but certainly improved and dangerous for opposing hitters. He’s been especially electric down the stretch, posting a 1.93 ERA over 4 starts this month with a 29:6 K:BB ratio as he’s continued improving over the 2nd half of the season.

His pitch mix relies mostly on his mid-90s 4-seam fastball and high-80s slider – which he utilizes uniformly against both lefties and righties – but, against righties, he adds in his devastating mid-80s changeup running down and away with a curve in the low-80s dropping down and in against righty hitters.

His mix of pitches are headlined by the changeup, which gets a nearly 50% whiff rate with a .198 batting average against. On the other end, the looping curve can catch too much plate leading to the highest oBA 9; .290 while the fastball up in the zone has the highest average exit velocity (92.9 MPH) and highest xSLG (.569).

Biggest thing is for opposing righties to watch for the changeup. His extension is higher on average with the pitch and the spin rate is considerably lower than his other offerings so Bucs batters will need to watch seams and hold fast on the fastballs up or hanging curve down, while keeping an eye on the sliders which also gets some seriously strong whiff rates.

Facing the Yankees is never easy but pick pitches, pick spots and be ready for them when you get something to hit.

Let’s go Bucs!

Clouded by Underachievement, There Were Some Positive Pirates Stories Along the Way

9-26-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

When you’re going through a dark time, it’s hard to think about the beacons of light you passed during the journey. This is stuff you look back on when the dust settles, not while the wind is blowing and it feels like chaos and failure are all around you.

Their record isn’t going to impress anyone, and changes are certainly needed, but when I sit back and look at the team, I find myself much happier with the roster than I feel like I should be, and that has a ton to do with some of the performances I’m going to highlight today.

None of this makes the negative go away. It won’t erase the failures, or the payroll issues, or the owner, but when you add them all up, you might just crack a smile about your baseball team.

These are going to be the brightest of bright spots. You could argue for more, but these are guys I’m happy to have watched, and can’t wait to see more from.

So here we go!

Luis Ortiz

Man, what a season it was for Luis Ortiz.

7-6, ERA 3.32, 37 Games, 15 of which were starts, 1 save (his first), 135.2 innings pitched, 107 K’s, 42 Walks and a stellar 1.11 WHIP.

He started the year in the bullpen and when injury started to crop up he moved seamlessly to the rotation. Effective in both spots, Luis quietly contributed to both units when they were at their best, in fact, he might be the only player who can say that.

Completely buried by the introduction of Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. Lumped in with Roansy Contreras as an apparent spare part although his numbers down the stretch in 2023 should have already shown us the foolishness of that thinking.

He did have a super strange home run binge in August where he gave up 8 of his 16 total dingers, but recovered and finished strong.

Heading Into 2025…
Luis has the inside track on securing a spot in the rotation. It won’t come without pressure, he’ll be asked to keep pace with some high quality arms, and to hold off the next wave while he continues to entrench himself as a fixture.

Dennis Santana

This one was a shock. I mean, we couldn’t possibly have known what he would do here, he wasn’t even here back in Spring. A waiver claim, subject to jeers like so many are and in his second outing for the Pirates, he’d do nothing to assuage that assumption.

In Colorado on June 15th he pitched one inning and surrendered 6 Earned Runs. It was awful, and when acquired from the Yankees off waivers he had a 6.26 ERA in 23 appearances.

Including that stinker in Colorado, all he’s done is shove 37 times, 42.1 innings a 0.92 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, and a .195 opponent batting average.

Working his season numbers back to 3.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 66 K’s and only 20 walks.

Folks, this isn’t in his history. He’s never had an ERA below 4.28.

Incredible performance.

Heading Into 2025…
Fools take a half season performance and write the player’s name in pen for a specific role next season, especially when it’s weighed against nearly 6 years of evidence to the contrary, but he’ll be back, and Dennis Santana will get the opportunity he’s earned to prove it wasn’t a fluke but a revelation.

Bryan Reynolds

Look, the Pirates signed a guy to a lucrative long term deal and he kept doing all the great stuff they saw that convinced them to get the deal done, even if it only happened because this even keel, patient player swallowed a barrage of slaps in the face to force it to the bargaining table.

There are obviously games remaining, but he’s played his typical vast majority of the games, he topped his low water mark of 20 homers, he drove in 85 runs exclusively from the 2 hole. His average of .275 is 2 points below his career average, his OPS is a tic low. An absolute model of consistency, Bryan Reynolds has held down “best player” honors on the Pirates for a solid 5 year stretch now.

Bryan was voted the Roberto Clemente Award winner by the Pittsburgh chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Essentially the Pirates’ Most Valuable Player.

He became the fourth player to win the award three times since its inception in 1972. The other 3 you ask? Oh, just Dave Parker, Andy Van Slyke and Andrew McCutchen.

Heading Into 2025…
There are rumblings of a move to first base, something that will come at some point as the alternative is a lot more DH duty for Bryan. The Pirates will have to face a few things with Reynolds. For one thing, he’s a fine outfielder, but StatCast hates him. Meaning, he’s one of those guys that most fans watch and think he’s great out there (me included) but the numbers underneath are always going to show limited range and inefficiency of routes.

I can buy that those underlying stats don’t matter all that much, but it’s hard on his body, and the Pirates need him to be him for as long as possible, so a move will come of some sort before too long.

Defense is a question, offensively though, he’ll be your number 2 hitter, almost regardless of potential coaching changes and he’ll likely deliver exactly what he always has or better.

Joey Bart

You can call it what you want. Voodoo, Change of scenery, dare I say coaching? LOL, I mean I know nobody wants to hear it, and ultimately, I’ve made my feelings clear it’s not enough, but you have to acknowledge when a player comes here like Joey Bart or Dennis Santana, even our next entry Bailey Falter and they do things they’ve never done before, they certainly didn’t un-coach them right? We give them appropriate crap, let’s be fair about it.

Here’s the thing with Joey though, he’s done very similar to this along his journey.

Check it….

20242022
Games7897
At Bats244261
HR1311
2B106
RBI4425
OPS.800.660
Strikeouts70112
Walks2226

They’re close, not exact.

He’s done much better with strikeouts and walks this year and he’s hit for more power numbers in general. Fewer games, more production.

Joey’s issue has almost always been health, and playing in the shadow of a modern day legend, along with a general lack of opportunity.

Here in Pittsburgh though, he has been given opportunity, maybe not by the Pirates as much as Henry Davis but opportunity nonetheless.

That said, what happened to 2023? Yeah, injury and not so hot. So I caution, let’s just let arbitration run its course a bit here ok? No need to extend.

Heading Into 2025…
He’ll of course be back, and I’d imagine he’s probably the presumptive starting catcher for the Bucs on opening day. It really doesn’t matter if it’s likely he reproduces what he’s doing right now or not. I firmly believe he’ll be given an opportunity and I don’t see the Pirates likely to want to just hand the keys to Henry again, or Endy who won’t have seen MLB pitching for a year, so it just makes sense to give Joey the lead, hope he performs again, and hope one or both of these kids pushes him for playing time back there.

I don’t wan to turn this into a catching article, we have time for that, but Joey has probably spared us from another 40 year old veteran catcher who smells like Icy Hot and runs like Iron Man with busted hydraulics.

He isn’t the best defender back there, and bluntly, I think that is the most likely reason Endy or Henry will ultimately replace him as the starter, at catcher anyway… again, more to come, I digress. Great season Joey.

Bailey Falter

I mean we’ve all kinda had our moment where we sat back in our seat or on our couch and said kinda quietly to ourselves, “I guess this Falter guy isn’t bad”. You watch him pitch, you can’t understand for the life of you how he’s not getting pounded. You know what’s coming, the hitters know what’s coming, the catcher doesn’t matter, the umpire isn’t important, cause that 93 MPH freight train is coming straight down town, and you won’t see it.

It’s crazy, kinda like what Arron Civale does to the Pirates but like nobody else. Bailey Falter is already a tremendous return for Rodolfo Castro, Probably Ben Cherington’s most successful 1 for 1 trade so far, reserving judgement on Billy Cook or Nick Yorke for now and acknowledging had Colin Holderman not struggled so mightily in the second half he for Daniel Vogelbach would be close.

It’s hard to imagine him losing his starting role. He’s the only lefty, at least for now in the picture. He’s done well, 4.26 ERA in 27 starts, 139.1 innings 1.26 WHIP and an 8-9 record for a 5th or 6th starter, yeah, I mean, I remember Jeff Locke and Randy Tomlin, Neal Heaton types, that’s kinda what this is. He’s not great, but he’s pretty damn good. Yet for some reason you can’t quite escape the feeling it can’t last, even as it keeps lasting.

Heading Into 2025…
The Pirates claim they’ll allow competition to dictate the rotation, and I’m inclined to believe them, after all, they just allowed Jared Jones to really come out of nowhere, blow everyone’s socks off and start the season with the big club.

I also have to believe Bailey gets a shot to secure his spot too, although I’m not sure a repeat of what he did last Spring would achieve that. I have spent more time doubting Bailey Falter than I have appreciating him, and that’s on me. Because of that, I didn’t allow myself to watch a guy with his ball club, identify a niche of a niche that he was elite with and exploit it for everything it was worth.

If Bailey heads north with the club next Spring, I don’t think we’ll hear nearly as many questions as to why.

Paul Skenes

What’s to say that hasn’t been said? The presumptive Rookie of the Year didn’t just get his feet wet or have an impressive rookie showing, he stepped right in to the very best baseball league in the world a calendar year past pitching in college and immediately claimed his place at the top of the sport.

I could type you up the resume, but again, you’ve seen.

Via Statmuse.com

I mean, right now the betting odds for Cy Young in the National League, not Rookie of the Year, the friggin’ Cy Young, Paul is 3rd at +4,000.

The names in front of him? Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler. The names below him? Logan Webb, Dylan Cease.

Paul Skenes is a legitimate star, and hopefully he’s only getting started.

Heading Into 2025…
He may not be handed the opening day starting role, but they probably should. Just like it made sense to give it to Sidney Crosby when he was still a teenager, it makes sense for Paul to just take the formalities of staff leader on too. He started the All Star Game, I think he’ll handle another start in Florida. Frankly, Mitch Keller didn’t earn those stripes this year, so coming back next year and handing the reigns right back to him would be little more than blatant propping up of a guy who knows he needs to be better.

As long as he’s healthy, there really is no limit to what he can do, pardon me, I have to clean up some drool real quick…

Oneil Cruz

It’s been a season full of ups and downs for Oneil Cruz. He was recovering from a rather major injury and hadn’t seen MLB pitching in a year. On top of that, he still had yet to participate in a full season. Bottom line, he had a lot going on.

He struggled defensively at SS, he struggled early on with lefties and he also struggled with the balance between striking out too much and trying to hit for power.

Overall though, he finished a full season, he’ll head into the offseason with that under his belt. He’s moved from SS to CF, so we’ve eliminated growing pains and introduced them somewhere else, potentially in a place where his athleticism alone will allow him to shine.

He conquered facing lefties, to the point we’ve seen teams avoid bringing on in to face him more than a few times in the last month.

Oneil Cruz is the Pirates best shot at a 30/30 guy and they simply have to have it, or this whole thing goes nowhere.

All in all, positive season for a kid who really needs to take a step next year again. Some of the mental lapses need cleaned up, but the question is no longer will he be good, it’s will he be a good player or a superstar. The latter will never come until or if he finds a way to stay focused for 9 innings day after day.

Heading Into 2025…
Center field starter on opening day with little doubt. The ankle being tender needs to not be nearly as much of a thing in 2025 and it would be good if he found a balance between hitting the ball 116 MPH and getting it in the air a bit.

All in all though, Cruz still has more tantalizing potential than anyone else on the team or for that matter in the system.

It’s funny, because it’s that very potential that also makes him the easiest player on the roster to criticize because he simply has more capability than anyone else. More is expected of him because it’s very clearly in there and we’ve watched him take over games or series only to turn around and have a 3 error, 0 for 4 performance the next day.

There’s no denying, this dude is in many ways the pivot point for this whole thing. He either turns into the offensive player they’ll never buy but always need, or, he’s just a contributor to a team that needs way more.

Starter Spotlight: Ambush Aaron

9-26-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Final home game of the season today with the Bucs sparring once more with Aaron Civale.

The Pirates have faced Civale twice this season – once while he was still with the Rays on June 23rd and once only a few weeks later on July 11th, following a trade to the Brewers. In those two games, Civale combined for 11.1 innings, 9 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks and 9 strikeouts.

Entering with 4.53 ERA between Tampa and Milwaukee, Civale has sub-par overall peripherals who doesn’t have great “stuff” but grinds through starts even with a bottom ten WHIP among all qualified starting pitchers.

Civale utilizes a diverse pitch mix – low-90s cutter and sinker, low-80s curve and sweeper with a mid-90s 4-seam – though, he also tosses occasional splitters and sliders as well but so infrequently that they aren’t worth dissecting.

Looking at the main five offerings, he tends to lean heavily on the cutter/curve against LHH while pushing the sinker/sweeper combo when facing righties. That said, none of his pitches rank favorably as all have an oBA of .240+ and oSLG of .410 or higher.

Civale works up in the zone with the hard stuff – including the sinker, surprisingly – while dropping the breaking stuff down as he works to attack the edges, often hanging his pitches as a result. 

More glaringly, he has some stark home/away splits with a 3.35 ERA when he pitches first and a 6.34 ERA when he toes the rubber in the bottom of the frames.

Pirates hitters need to be on the attack today, bearing down on the high heat and looking to pull the offspeed stuff down and break through with some big hits today. He bested the Bucs twice before but no time like today to turn things around.

Let’s Go Bucs!

With Seemingly Every Move, The Pirates Create a Poison Pill

9-25-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Rowdy Tellez wound up being a poor signing for the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates. Most fans thought it would turn out this way, you know, being DFA’d, and most wouldn’t have thought twice about it had the club pulled the trigger back on September 1st.

That’s not how the Pirates operate though.

See, the Pirates simply don’t think there are people actually paying attention. They think they’re operating in the dark, but light has long since been shined on a large swath of what they tend to think is only for their eyes.

10 years ago, had this event taken place, there’s a very good chance the story ends with a postmortem of Rowdy’s season, the very accurate conclusion being that while late in the season, cutting him was more than ok.

Pittsburgh has something that most towns don’t though, we have Ethan Hullihen, a man who keeps such meticulous and up to the day accurate payroll figures, and leaves them available to the public.

He’s so good, he predicts the Forbes end of year reports, the only MLB salary report that winds up sanctioned by MLB and MLBPA every year and Ethan might be off by 10-30 thousand.

Think about that.

This guy has contacts and gathers information we’ve never had at our fingertips about incentives baked in, timing, amounts. He figures out formulas for service time. It’s all there, and the local journalists know its so good they can’t avoid using it themselves.

Without Ethan, I’m not saying this story never sees the light of day, but it would have been a grievance we heard about in the winter, the Pirates will win that grievance. By then, most of us are tuned out. I maybe mention it in 5 Thoughts some week, get a few eye rolls, and we all move on.

Truth is, what just happened to Rowdy happens all the time to players. Players understand it, it’s part of the gig. They could perform well enough to make the team ignore it of course, but if the team underperforms, they sometimes get caught in the wash.

In Rowdy’s case, both things happened. He and the team failed.

Now, the team should have DFA’d Rowdy long before this, even a couple weeks and this is hardly a story, let alone something Pat McAfee is talking about.

The bottom line is, the only way this became a thing is the Pirates waited for the one time where you could argue with zero irony that this guy was getting screwed. 10 at bats ago, this is a stretch. 20 at bats ago, you only bring it up if you have an axe to grind. 30 at bats ago, a few fans whine it should have been 3 months earlier.

Had they done it earlier, they could actually sell that they were far more patient than another team might be, in other words, if you want a REAL shot, come to Pittsburgh.

The Pirates create issues with players and 9 times out of 10 it comes from the overriding belief that they have the benefit of stupid fans, or at the very least, uninformed. Sometimes they simply think the player is just gonna play ball, see Bryan Reynolds who simply got tired of having his leash jerked and decided to pressure these people.

They think they’re smarter than anyone else, especially us. They got caught.

Will this prevent free agents from signing here? No.

Offering less than what it takes to get a deal done is what will prevent free agents from signing here, just like always. Players don’t sign these deals believing they’re going to perform badly enough that any team would think twice about cutting them to avoid paying an escalator in a contract, just like you don’t take a job thinking you’re probably going to get fired for sucking at it.

Players don’t sign here for one reason, the Pirates don’t offer what other teams do and if everything’s even, maybe stuff like this is a tie breaker, thing is, I don’t often hear they tied on the money, so again, no, this will have no effect. They’ll either pay, or they won’t.

Aroldis Chapman was offered 2.5 million more than any offer he had on the table and signed it.

They offered more, they got the “star”. That’s how it works.

You sign a player looking for a rebound and pad it with incentives that could get him where he wants to be financially, well, let’s be real, by May Rowdy knew these numbers were going to be tough to hit based on how they were using him.

In other words, he probably wasn’t shocked, but I’m also going to bet when he got to the last week of the season he probably thought to himself, man, I guess they’re gonna let me have that first one.

I hate this stuff. I hate that my team is the very worst example in baseball of what happens when the league has no control over how much or how little a team has to do financially speaking.

Don’t cry for Rowdy, he was given more time than he earned. By all means, be disgusted by how the Pirates handle situations like this, even as you know it’s the right move to make, timing be damned.

More than anything, do realize all of this starts with the way they spend. As with just about every discussion about this team, the fish stinks from the head, and that stinky head for the life of him can’t seem to hire people who know how to no do obvious stupid things that the baseball world laughs, or in this case yells about.

Starter Spotlight: Get Ready For Freddy

9-25-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Facing off against Freddy Peralta today, older brother of one-time Pirates prospect, Luis Peralta, and perennial tormenter of Bucs bats.

Peralta has appeared in 21 games against the Pirates in his career and holds a 2-1 record with a 3.56 ERA over 78.1 innings, striking out 91 and walking 29 in those outings.

His most recent matchup with the Bucs on April 25th was his worst start in that stretch as he allowed 5 runs off 5 hits, 5 walks and striking out 5 over 4.2 innings of work.

Despite that, Peralta is never easy as he enters play today with some solid numbers overall, posting a 3.69 ERA over 168.1 innings of work and ranks 11th in MLB with his 193 strikeouts.

Though, some cracks are starting to show with control as he has issued a career-high 66 walks – 4th most in MLB among qualified starters – with a career-worst 2.92 K/BB rate.

Looking at his arsenal, Peralta features a mix of 4 pitches: mid-90s 4-seamer working up in the zone, a low-80s slider mostly deployed against righties breaking down and away, a high-80s changeup working down and away when facing lefties and a lesser-used curve in the high-70s with an inconsistent location/release point.

His fastball has the highest Run Value among his offerings but, given the frequency and clear difference in location from his other pitches, has been hit hard at times (17 of 26 home runs have come against the heater) and has the lowest whiff rate among his offerings at 24.9%, with both the highest average exit velocity (89.3 MPH) and highest line drive rate (24.3%).

His changeup generates a high ground-ball rate with 60.2% of batted balls registering with a negative launch angle so hitters will want to keep their eyes hyper focused on the high heat and avoid chasing stuff outside of the zone.

Peralta – and the Brewers in general – will always be a difficult matchup but if there’s any chance at winning the series, the Bucs will need to punch through against Freddy early in the game today.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Return of Myers

9-24-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Pirates open up their final home series of the season as the NL Central division-winning Milwaukee Brewers come to town with Tobias Myers on the bump for game 1.

Myers previously faced the Pirates twice this year: once on April 23rd where he pitched 5 frames of 4-hit, 1-run ball with a walk and 4 Ks and again on July 10th, when he twirled 8 shutout frames of 4-hit ball with one walk and 6 strikeouts so it is unlikely that the team will be eager to see ol’ Toby again.

Entering today, Myers has an 8-6 record with a 3.06 ERA over 130 innings pitched with 130 strikeouts to 36 walks but even that is weighed down by a sub-par May as over his last 18 starts, he has a 2.44 ERA through 103.1 innings dating back to the start of June.

The 26-year old righty has been posting solid numbers but the peripherals indicate a different picture with his xERA, FIP and xFIP all considerably higher than his ERA.

This is due in part to his below average strikeout numbers (22.3%) and his tendency for hard-hit fly balls with a 40.4% fly ball rate and 31.9% hard-hit rate.

As mentioned in the previous piece, Myers mostly leans on his 2 fastballs in the low-90s (4-seam and cutter), paired with a mid-80s slider and an infrequent high-70s curve but his low-80s changeup has been his best offering overall.

Opposing hitters have managed just 8 hits against his changeup while whiffing at a nearly 45% clip and striking out 39% of the time. His slider has also produced positive results, breaking down under the zone and resulting in a 51.5% ground-ball rate.

In contrast, his fastballs have hung up in the plate, leading to hitter-friendly launch angles resulting in 17 of his 18 home runs surrendered and 28 of his 34 extra base hits allowed coming against those pitches.

Best chance for success today is for Pirates hitters to lay off the low breaking stuff and hold to the high heat. Barrel up the ball and find a way to break through against Myers.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers (89-67) at Pittsburgh Pirates (73-83)

9-24-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After clinching the NL Central for a second straight year, the Brewers are hyper-focused on post-season but will need to finish up the season against the Pirates, who have nothing to lose at this stage in the year.

That doesn’t mean the Brewers will necessarily let up against the Bucs in the final home series of the year for Pittsburgh as the season series is split 5-5 entering this matchup.

9/24
Brewers – Tobias Myers (R) – 8-6, 130 IP, 3.05 ERA, 120 Ks/36 walks, 1.19 WHIP
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 8-8, 134.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 92 Ks/41 walks, 1.27 WHIP

9/25
Brewers – Freddy Peralta (R) – 11-8, 168.1 IP, 3.69 ERA, 193 Ks/66 walks, 1.23 WHIP
Pirates – Luis Ortiz (R) – 6-6, 128.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 102 Ks/41 walks, 1.13 WHIP

9/26
Brewers – Aaron Civale (R) – 7-9, 155 IP, 4.53 ERA, 144 Ks/51 walks, 1.33 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 11-11, 173 IP, 4.21 ERA, 160 Ks/48 walks, 1.29 WHIP

Brewers: William Contreras – Arguably the best catcher in MLB on both sides of the ball, Contreras is having a career year with a 5.0 bWAR ranking 6th highest in the National League and 23 home runs coming from the backstop position, his offense has carried the team all year. And that production has only amplified this month as he is 10 for his last 23 with four of those hits going for extra bases.

Pirates: Dennis Santana – I never put relievers in this category but the offense has been so bad that I want to give Santana his flowers here. With a recent update charging Isiah Kiner-Falefa with an error in the 8th inning of last Tuesday’s game against the Cardinals, Santana is now riding a streak of 19 games and 22.1 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 22 while walking just 4 in that span.

Brewers: Willy Adames – While Adames is having an excellent season overall, looking to parlay that success into a lofty contract in free agency this offseason, he has hit a bit of a bumpy road in September. Dating back to September 3rd, Adames is batting just .206 while striking out nearly a third of the time – a steep drop from his season marks of .250 and 25.8%.

Pirates: Joey Bart – The entire offense has stagnated lately but Bart has fallen off the hardest. Dating back over the last month, Bart has a .196/.288/.283 slash line over that stretch with a wRC+ of 63.

Team Notes

The Brewers have been a bit sluggish in September, posting a 9-11 record this month, but the offense has been one of the best in baseball all year led by Contreras, Adames and rookie sensation Jackson Chourio.

Additionally, Milwaukee has one of the best bullpens in MLB with a 3.20 combined reliever ERA leading the National League, making this team extra difficult to defeat – particularly in the late innings facing Jared Koenig (2.55 ERA in 60 innings), Trevor Megill (2.84 ERA over 44.1 innings) and Devin Williams (1.37 ERA through 19.2 innings).

Let’s Go Bucs!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Losing Season, Once More

9-23-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

This version of the Pittsburgh Pirates should have been able to end the losing record streak.

I believed that before the season, I believe it now.

They didn’t get there, and that has to come with changes, growth and new goals. We’ll talk about them all off season and I’m not going to be able to resist some of it starting right now.

Let’s go…

1. Rookie of the Year – Paul Skenes

The debate has been fun and Jackson Merrill looks like a fine young player, but Paul Skenes is doing once in a half century type stuff and I’m sorry, betting odds be damned, this couldn’t be more clear to me (even though the odds have flipped in my favor now).

Most of the arguments for Merrill tend to gravitate to the “he plays everyday” or “he’s on a playoff team” domain, and most of those arguments are honestly not Rookie of the Year arguments. They have a place in MVP conversations, but we’re talking about the most outstanding rookie performance, period.

What Merrill has done will be replicated by another rookie within the next five years. Just will. What Paul Skenes has done, again, might not be replicated this century.

In fact, I could make a better case for Shota Imanaga to take down Paul Skenes than Merrill.

Imanaga in 29 starts has generated a 3.2 WAR, 15-3 record, 2.91 ERA, 173.1 IP, 174 K’s and a 1.021 WHIP.

Skenes in 22 starts has generated 6.0 WAR, 11-3 record, 1.99 ERA, 131 IP, 167 K’s and a 0.962 WHIP.

That is a lot closer to a race for this award than Merrill.

4.3 WAR, 537 ABs, .292 Average, .326 OBP, .829 OPS, 24 HR.

Again, great season for a rookie, and 5 years ago, Bryan Reynolds who didn’t finish as a finalist for the award in 2019 would have finished ahead of him in the race. Reynolds came in 4th that season.

One happens just about every year or two, one probably won’t happen again before I die.

It’s Skenes.

For me the debate is over. Paul will likely finish near the top of the Cy Young Award voting, Jackson Merrill would shock me if he landed in the top 10 for MVP, yet I’m supposed to believe they’re razor close for ROY, yeah, ok.

2. In 2025 Potential Answers Can’t be the Only Answers

Every year leading up to now under Ben Cherington has been about “getting better”. You hear them say it way too much. The thing is, if they do actually see a record improvement this season, it’ll be by a game maybe 2.

They have a ton of decisions to make, regarding who will be making those decisions, but whomever that is, they can’t look at the mass of maybe’s on this club and pretend they have filled holes.

I mean, you’re always going to place a bet, but winning in 2025 for whomever can’t be a best case scenario, it needs to be a requirement.

It’s not a nice to have, it’s an expectation.

So if your outfield looks like Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and then 4 or 5 guys who might or could be, or should improve, or whatever, that’s not good enough.

Wherever you look on the diamond, you should be able to point to the MLB track record holding it down as we start 2025. If some of those guys who might be or could be make it plain that they should be here, ok, make a change, but don’t enter the season assuming you’re going to fill holes, have them full and be mentally prepared to not care about wasted money if you get lucky enough to have a rookie outplay them.

I love all the youngsters and what I’m proposing isn’t slamming the door in their face, it’s just asking the team to not leave anything up to the throw everything at the wall and see what sticks thought process they used during the intense build period which this team again regardless of who they place in charge has to be beyond. Its the same reason you don’t just dump Bailey Falter or Luis Ortiz because Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington look great.

Bring in experience, hope you develop yourself out of the need to roster them and trade talent while simultaneously upgrading your roster with younger players.

The more they leave to chance, the greater the possibility they disappoint again. That’s going to ultimately mean some “kids” you think are going to be good don’t get immediate shots. Be ok with it, or be ok with mediocrity.

3. Will These Final 6 Games Matter for the Pirates Opponents?

The Brewers are locks to win the NL Central, that race is all over and they’re very close to a lock to be the 3 seed in the playoffs. It would take a tank from LA or Philly and for the Brewers to win just about every game they have left, I don’t see it.

That makes me believe they’ll be more focused on getting lined up for their round one series, but division rivals almost always play tight even if they rest some guys.

The Yankees are up 6 on the Orioles, I can’t imagine winning the division isn’t settled by the time the Pirates play them. They could be fighting Cleveland off for the number 1 seed however, that race is relatively close.

Aaron Judge has 55 homeruns, 7 short of his personal record, and MLB’s if you’re one of the people who has to pretend Steroids era players didn’t play, your version of MLB’s record in general. I’m not sure that’s going to be enough of a pull to see them ensure he takes every AB he has coming to him.

The Bucs need 3 wins to tie last season, 4 to better it and they gotta get it done in 6 games against two division winners.

Does it matter? Well, not to most of us, but if they have any intention of returning this management team, even in part, feels to me like they need it. As jaded as this is going to sound and as bullshit as it actually is, if this team can even pull of 77 wins, they have “better” in their back pocket.

They’ll be able to tell you their gold glove 3B who they’ll happily tell you was selected as team MVP in 2023 by some obscure publication essentially was lost for the entirety of 2024.

Or it would have been even better, where we told you it’d be even.

They’ll be able to tell you that David Bednar single handed blew away topping .500. How could they expect that they’ll say, even as they return him to the same spot and try to convince you he’ll get it this time.

They’ll have the story of Jack Suwinski who took team wishes to change some things, destroyed who he is as a hitter and they survived getting next to nothing out of him, even as they tell you how convinced they are he’ll get back to what he was.

Being able to honestly look at the record and physically be able to claim improvement will enable them, especially since bluntly, I think they’re all including Bob Nutting, at least understanding of what happened this year.

They thought they had a competitive team. They’re 5-6 wins from being at least very close to right.

Fans have reacted to this season like they lost 115 games, and I get it, but the team knows you’ll look back with clearer glasses than you are now, so do the media who are telling you to riot in the streets only to tell you which bar to meet them at next Spring in Bradenton as they excitedly tell you about Paul Skenes’ first full Spring Training as an MLB player and hype Ke’Bryan Hayes hitting wind aided homers.

They’ve underachieved, but not as badly as the tone I hear would lead you to believe. No matter what this team does, good luck not being optimistic about what you know is coming back…

4. Jared Jones

Jared Jones has had a tremendous rookie season. He’s been overshadowed by Paul Skenes, there’s little doubt about that, and after both of the “Hundo Boys” stopped throwing um… Hundo like I told you all would happen when the nickname emerged, the interest in this being a double turned real quick into a solo act for the National Media.

Jones to his credit, didn’t let it effect him, although his Lat injury and rehab probably made it easier to accept.

6-8, 4.14 ERA, 21 games, 117.1 innings, 1.176 WHIP, 18 HR.

Solid. Not great. Just solid. The type of performance you get from a rookie in a normal season and it sends you into the offseason cautiously optimistic.

When he won the job in Spring, he was throwing a fastball that moved like crazy and topped triple digits with seemingly no effort. It was coupled with a completely tunneled and effective slider or sweeper.

His two other pitches, he’s rarely thrown. The Curve and the Changeup. As the season is wrapping, he’s built up the curveball and forced it into more at bats, there has to be something offspeed when his velocity isn’t topping Triple figures, and the curve can supply that. When it’s working that is, it doesn’t always and it isn’t keeping bats off his fastball which is the purpose of throwing it.

His curve turns into a slider really quickly though if he simply changes his arm slot. His changeup is just not a good pitch yet, not nearly and heading into Spring, it was supposed to be the “reason he’s ready”.

This sounds nuts, but as we head into year two, Jared being a starter long term to me depends on how his down the line weapons evolve and how much he’s learned about leaving some gas in the tank, cause he almost completely depleted his fuel in the first month and a half of 2024.

Next year with fewer innings restrictions and probably a shorter leash, he’ll need to show he can manage to keep his pitch count in line, certainly needs to regularly push beyond 5 innings. He’ll need either his Curve or Change to take a jump over the Winter. And if he doesn’t, the Bullpen will come calling before too long.

I’m just being real, at some point 5 innings isn’t enough and he wasn’t always pulled because of trying to get him to the finish line, he was pulled much more often because he had thrown 85-95 pitches by the end of the 5th inning, if not before.

Skenes has to do some of this stuff too of course, it’s just a lot clearer he has the mix of stuff to know it’s just about learning how to more efficiently use them.

Jones has little choice but to throw his two best pitches, at least where he currently is.

Overall, tremendous rookie campaign again, but what he is long term, still remains to be seen if you ask me.

5. What Does a Hitting Coach Do?

A Major League Baseball hitting coach works with players to improve their batting form and technique. Their responsibilities include: 

  • Monitoring swings: Observe players’ swings during games and practices, and provide advice between at-bats. 
  • Video analysis: Use video to analyze players’ swings and identify flaws or bad habits. 
  • Preparing for opposing pitchers: Use video and statistical analysis to prepare players for opposing pitchers. 
  • Adapting coaching: Hitting coaches should adapt their coaching style to each player. 
  • Empowering players: Hitting coaches should help players take ownership of their process. 

This isn’t just in Pittsburgh, this is everywhere. Typical things that one should expect from an MLB hitting coach. All designed to do one major thing, help guys find a way out of struggle.

That’s right, by the time a player reaches MLB, there is nobody there who is going to teach them how to hit. Nobody is going to reinvent their swing, in fact in today’s game every player has their own hitting coach. I just heard Derek Shelton confirm this on his appearance with Greg Brown and Michael McKenry on their Hold My Cutter Podcast.

It’s all this stuff though that Andy Haines is not helping with nearly enough. Ending slumps, identifying a hole in a swing. Finding a cleaner path to get his load ready to fire off, all that stuff.

A lot has been placed on this overall philosophy, but for the most part, that overall philosophy is owned and practiced by all 30 teams in the game. Helping to turn things around when a guy is struggling, that’s the money shot.

The Pirates have to make a change here, but let’s be clear, the next guy’s “approach” is going to sound exactly the same, and that won’t be because Cherington believes in some weird cult like beliefs either, it’ll be because for the most part, they all start with the exact same stuff.

They need a better mechanic a lot more than they need a new shop to take the car to.