Starter Spotlight: Greene Means Go!

9-22-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

For the sixth time this month, the Pirates failed in scoring more than 1 run in a game; and for the 11th time, they failed to do this against the opposing starter on the day. Can they find a way to break through today? 

They’ll have to do it against Hunter Greene, who returns from the Injured List today to face the Pirates. 

Though he won’t qualify for the ERA title as a result of the missed time, Greene is among the best in the National League for ERA (2.98), K% (27.8) and batting average against (.182 – the lowest for all NL pitchers with minimum 140 innings) with the 2nd highest bWAR among NL pitchers despite missing the past five weeks.

Greene has faced the Pirates twice this season in back-to-back starts with drastically different results. On June 19th, he threw 6.1 shutout frames allowing 2 hits, no walks and striking out 9 but on his June 25th outing, Greene managed just 4 innings surrendering 6 runs off 7 hits with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts.

Greene will likely be limited in his pitch count today following only a 52-pitch simulated game in lieu of rehab but his high-90s fastball paired with a high-80s slider are difficult to square up with each offering resulting in sub-.200 BAA.

Greene’s only real shortcoming is his tendency for wildness as his 9.1% walk rate is among the highest in MLB starting pitchers. Given the expected pitch count and proclivity for free passes, Bucs bats will need to exhibit patience and try to work long at-bats to get him out early – or at least early-ish.

Let’s Go Bucs!

The Pirates are Careful with Player Health, Sometimes, Maybe, Depending…

9-22-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m not a doctor.

Seems obvious, but, when I’m about to write something that deals with medicine or training or health of players in general, it’s important to just clarify, I’m not trying to be an expert here. I’m simply seeing patterns and asking questions.

I mean, the team has largely hampered their second half of the season trying like hell to make sure Paul Skenes can’t pitch more than once a week, yet these same people decided Johan Oviedo needed to give them 2 more starts in a losing season, to stretch further than he ever had by a country mile.

Again, I’m not trying to claim I know beyond a shadow of doubt this lead to his eventual Tommy John Surgery. I don’t have to in order to simply point out, it’s contradictory.

I mean, your mind could go a ton of different ways. On one hand, I don’t have an issue with pushing a guy, and if you’re doing individual evaluation you should of course wind up with individual outcomes for how to proceed. On the other hand, he hadn’t even approached a load like his 177.2 innings he provided in 2023 since 2019, and it felt rushed.

Think back, Johan was acquired from the Cardinals and had been performing out of their bullpen, the Pirates decided to see if they could stretch him back out to start, which obviously worked out quite well, so well that Johan would wind up sticking and providing damn near as much as Mitch Keller did on the innings front.

He’d already done that. He’d already made it apparent this pitching starved franchise (remember that being the narrative?) had probably found a starter to add to their rotation, there had been signs that Oviedo was slowing down a bit, the velocity had dropped off, the command had become a bit more loose. The Pirates still asked him to push it and of course, it’s not just their doing, Johan wanted it too.

Again, I don’t need to openly blame the Pirates for his ultimate injury in order to ask some questions.

Even if that story has you 100% convinced the team messed up, it’s one story, one instance, and you can do nothing further than second guess.

Until you see more…

First thing I thought of was the first time I remember asking questions about their handling of a player, Vince Velasquez. Another pitcher who had been a reliever with starter experience the Pirates were trying to stretch back out. The Bucs barely got into this project as Vinny landed on the IL with elbow tightness after his May 4th appearance and to everyone’s surprise jumped right back off the IL for a May 27th appearance in Seattle where he got hit hard and ultimately took two innings to turn his tightness into a full blown UCL surgery situation.

Again, I hate to repeat myself, I’m not a doctor. Someone who is absolutely told the Pirates these situations would play out differently. Or at least that the concern was minimal, right?

Look, it doesn’t have to be someone’s fault when there’s an injury. Like JT Brubaker ultimately first felt something in his elbow reaching for something at a dinner table. That’s just bad luck and hey, for all I know, that’s all it is with Oviedo and Velasquez too.

Sadly, there’s more.

And not just pitchers. Nick Gonzales and Henry Davis both had injury plagued trips through the minor leagues, and both have been put in strange situations because of it, up to and including playing through injury, which at the very least gives fans an impression of their abilities without the complete set of information, but also puts them as more risk than you typically would a 1st round selection.

Henry has had hand injuries almost his entire tenure in the franchise. Getting hit by pitches, hitting bare handed, leaving his hand exposed in his catching stance for foul balls, and recently I heard the new weighted knob on his bat that he’s since eliminated initially hurt his hand again this year.

I mean, can we get a tighter grip on how he’s experimenting? Can we get him techniqued up a bit behind the dish, get the hand behind your back at least? Maybe make him wear batting gloves instead of playing G.I. Joe?

The latest is Jared Jones. They’ve spent all season dealing with innings counts for he and Paul Skenes and they’ve done so to the detriment of the team’s performance which has in part netted them their current position. The Bullpen has been bad, but the team has also every 6th day thrown a bullpen game, or a poor starter who probably isn’t going all that deep which always sucked, because it added focus to the Pirates most underperforming unit.

Regardless, this effort to get Skenes and Jones to the end of the season makes sense, as long as they’re healthy. It’s all about being careful, all about making sure they have a normal offseason and all the pain caused by protecting them through the season pays off in two kids stretched out and ready to be much more uninhibited in 2025.

That’s what you hope. But if you hit any bump in the road at any point, you pull the plug, no harm, no foul. Everyone gets it, even the most skeptical of skeptical.

So what the hell were Derek Shelton and the Training Staff thinking the other night when Jared Jones started losing velocity like he hadn’t all season long? What were they thinking as he showed signs of discomfort most of his outing, stretching his arms above his head repeatedly and throwing multiple fastballs at 90-91 MPH. Here’s Derek Shelton’s responses, I have thoughts, but you really should form your own first, so I’m at least giving you the opportunity.

I didn’t like this entire scene. I had felt something was off with Jared most of the game after the first inning. Couldn’t put my finger on it but, something wasn’t right.

So, when Jared had a sudden massive drop in velocity, down 6-0 in a meaningless game for a team that just clinched a losing season, again, and arguably your number 2 or 3 rotation member heading into next year, I thought, well, it’s been a good season kid. I thought, yeah, he’s probably ok, maybe aggravated the Lat again, but he’ll be fine.

I couldn’t believe they let him stay out there.

I couldn’t believe the juxtaposition that somehow in an effort to keep Jared and Paul healthy, I had to watch Domingo German, Jake Woodford, Carmen Mlodzinski as an opener or whatever piece of day old bread they found on the way home pitch, versus Eh, push through kid.

Like, what?

Not only does he stay in the game, after all that stuff, after all those observations, he’s challenged to push through and he ramps up his velocity to game high numbers.

So, if this is a tight Lat that’s still recovering, is that really what you want him doing? Even if he’s fine, even if this is all second guessing about what could have gone badly and didn’t.

How does that make sense?

Here’s Jared.

Yup, I’m sure that’s how it went down. Kid is a competitor, I’m quite sure he did want to stay out there, I’m also quite sure even if he did feel something, he very much so wanted to push through it.

I just question the team allowing it.

Everything about this team is careful.

Careful about trading prospects. Careful about multi year contracts. Careful about limiting pitch counts or innings.

Careless in my eyes. Maybe I’m just a fan overreacting. But I watched a team profess being careful was important enough to pull this kid out of a no hit effort in New York only 5 innings deep with a low pitch count only to see them apparently think now that the game doesn’t matter functionally for anyone on the field for either team, lets suddenly not err on the side of caution with an important player to our club.

Think about how they handled David Bednar at the beginning of the season. Injured, no Spring Training, pitched his Spring Training games in the Major leagues, in the same role he always held like it was just going to be ok.

Think about how they handled Colin Holderman. Injury history with the Mets and Pirates, gets a crushing flu bug in Spring and loses 25 pounds, so when he works his way back and goes through rehab what does Shelton do? Pitches him 19 times in 35 days. 31 of 59… on a guy who never gained back all his weight in the first place. And he handled it, until he didn’t. In late July into August, boom, the wall. He rode Colin like a horse to the glue factory and at the same time acted like some guys were hard done by if they had to go three times a week.

They have much more information than I do. I just see what I see, and ask questions.

Less and less do I accept the answers.

This team is simply not managed well, this is just another way.

Starter Spotlight: A Little Bit Lowder Now

9-21-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The losses are getting heavy. The silence from the front office is getting louder making fans want to SHOUT! – but there are still games remaining to be played with a different sort of Lowder on the bump tonight – 2023 first rounder Rhett Lowder, to be precise.

Selected six picks after the Pirates nabbed Paul Skenes, Lowder surged through the Reds farm system as he posted a 3.64 ERA through 108.2 innings across three levels of minor league ball, striking out 113 while walking just 24.

The 32nd-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline earned a call up last month, starting 4 games and posting a sparkling 1.74 ERA over 20.2 innings while striking out the same amount of batters as hits allowed (17) – though, he has walked 9 in that time.

Lowder has fairly even distribution of his pitches, mixing a low-90s 4-seam, a mid-80s slider, low-90s sinker and a high-80s changeup.

Small sample size but his changeup – which he mostly throws down-and-away when facing LHH – has been his most effective offering with opponents getting just one hit versus 5 strikeouts against the off-speed pitch.

On the other hand, his fastball up in the zone has the highest batting average against (.333) while also posting a .492 woBA, and his slider dropping low has an average exit velocity of 95MPH and both extra base hits allowed (both doubles) coming against the offering.

Lowder was able to deceive hitters in the lower levels but he’s not going to get away with as much in the big leagues, especially given his low velocity stuff and middle-of-the-road spin rates.

He’s going to work out of the zone a lot, trying to get hitters to get over aggressive and chase his stuff – especially high fastballs which have resulted in 6 of his 9 walks allowed. 

Pirates hitters will need to be patient and look for high sinkers and hanging sliders over the plate. Let him make his rookie mistakes, take walks and clobber meatballs.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Steel City Pirates Q&A – Last Week of the Season

9-21-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Lots of good ones this time. Appreciate the challenge.

Lets Go.

Question 1

Is Bednar pitching with an oblique injury? Could be a reason for the high ERA and alleged pitch tipping as he can’t turn much in his windup. – Mark Graham

No.

I wish it was more complicated than that, but it’s hard to entertain something that has no shred of possibility to it. He’s not hurt. Not now. His “tipping” was all about where he placed the glove pre-pitch, and by the way, he’s entirely changed it since the Trevor May video dropped. Now his glove is pinned to his body.

Nothing to do with whatever you think you’ve seen with his windup.

Sorry, I’d love to go all JFK investigator with you, I just can’t.

The only thing hurt on David is his pride.

Question 2

Will the pirates ever be good enough to win a World Series? Seems like they can’t even get into the postseason playoffs with any regularity – Shawn Fultz

Nobody can really answer this for you. The first question is one that every fan of every sports team ever has to ask themselves. Do YOU believe they’ll EVER be good enough to win it all? That’s the only thing that matters, and honestly, there are still people who would answer that negatively and be just as invested. Secondly, it more than seems that way Shawn, they don’t win with regularity, so of course, they don’t get into the post season.

Bluntly, if you get into the playoffs, you were probably good enough to win a World Series. Once the tournament starts, it’s about being the hottest team.

Question 3

Why didn’t Shelton and Cherington just run with the winning lineup instead of changing it. – Shawn Wheeler

This question came in after I asked for clarification about the first go at it. Shawn, I’m not sure what this “winning lineup” was. I can’t think of one 9 man lineup that I felt they should just stick with. I can think of sets of of players I’d write in pen and leave them be, but for this year’s club I’d have Reynolds at 2 and Cruz at 3, everything else, eh, change what you want.

Question 4

I understand it takes time for players to progress through the minors and, therefore, for GMs to see fruit at the MLB level. And yes, yes, COVID, I know. But even including MiLB acquisitions, there is a grand total of one Cherington guy who has stuck among position players, Nick Gonzales–and some might even quibble with that.

How damning should it be for a GM to have so little to show at eight positions five years in? – Zachary Kerr

They’ve clearly focused hard on pitching in the draft, it’s been the vast majority of their picks, so when you separate it out into position player vs pitcher, you should expect pitching to be outpacing it, especially with one of those picks being a can’t miss generational talent who started the All Star Game less than a year from his draft date.

In many ways, the speed with which some of the pitching has arrived has taken an already thin herd of position players and added pressure to not miss along with unhealthy expectation for progression.

The team has been desperate too, Henry was brought up here, and they’ve finally admitted this now, simply because he could hit and nobody in the Bigs was hitting. They didn’t put the time into his defense partially due to his injury, partially because the kid was destroying everything in the minors and they were panicked to show something offensively coming through the system.

Now, I’m personally not all that tweaked yet. But I know I’m abnormally patient when it comes to prospect development, and I think this entire tune is only one small aspect of how a team comes together.

The team sure is though. They’ve already replaced just about everyone involved in International Signings, Pro Scouting, Amateur Scouting and that all screams that they aren’t seeing the results they want to see.

Question 5

Much has been made about how Pirates fans have (mis)characterized O’Neil Cruz and other Latin ball players as dumb or lazy. Much has also been made about the failings of the Pirates Latin American scouting efforts.

Could it be that the reputation for how Latin players are perceived and treated causes prospects to prefer other opportunities? – Ed Fleming

Ed, we live in a society that quite literally might take the fact you spelled Oneil’s name wrong in that question and assign racism to it. You aren’t of course, but once someone says you are, their 25 clone accounts do too. Then come the warriors who are perpetually on the lookout for the potential that someone might have said something wrong, ready to pounce and see how far they can take it. Social media isn’t real life. 1 doesn’t equal 1 million. In fact, Tom254433yt38u3BunchaNumbers might not even be from Pittsburgh.

The Pirates have spent a ton of money on this market, and the facility in the D.R., but after they fired Rene Gayo for his misdeeds they have had very little success which is why they’ve yet again replaced the crew.

I guess it could trickle down there Ed, but I really doubt it. First, I don’t believe this phenomena to only exist in Pittsburgh. It’s really more of a generation thing than a regional thing if you ask me. And as mean as this sounds, those people are dying, more and more every day.

This is the only area of Baseball where the Pirates at least keep up with everyone else if not exceed as it comes to spending anyhow. Most of their successes or guys who look like they might be are players they’ve acquired via trade but were initially signed by another team. Luis Ortiz I believe represents the only player Mr. Vizcaino signed.

My honest opinion here Ed, the previous regime hired the wrong guys, this one took way too long to recognize it. That “reputation” I don’t think the Pirates, the city, the fans, are seen as being different from any other there.

Question 6

What will this year teach us about Bob Nutting as an owner? Firing the last management team was a welcome surprise, and the fans took hope from it. This time, with all the quantitative aspects saying the organizational rebuild is a failure, will he find better counsel? -Douglas Smith

I’ll maintain what I’ve felt all along. Ben Cherington is in no real danger of losing his job this year. I’m not going to pretend I know what “quantitative aspects” means to you, but it’s largely unimportant because I also don’t think anyone internally feels this is a failure yet.

If Bob feels the coaching is really bad and wants them fired, he’ll do it, just like he did last time after Huntington disagreed.

Fans for themselves decided how long was appropriate. Or they’ve held onto Dave Littlefield’s “5 year plan” and assigned it to everyone since. These guys have never once uttered those words. They’ve never even given you a timeline. I came up with my own timeline when this whole thing started and I had 2024 as .500 with a maybe sneak in goal, long before Paul Skenes was even a name, and let’s be real, he’s the reason this became a must win year.

Not once did you hear by this year we’ll be awesome. Nowhere will you find “if we aren’t here by this date, failure”.

What did he learn? Honestly, Probably to shut his mouth even more than he normally does. Every time he opened his mouth he made it seem like the GM had money to spend and chose not to. Now, he knows that’s not true, but he’s created an environment where he has a stated directive out there that he’s ok spending and it looks like the GM ignored him or thought he knew better.

Of course people think Bob is pissed enough to fire him. Thing is, he wasn’t being straight and it’s painted him into a virtual corner. I personally think he’ll just get some paint on his shoes and not talk much next year unless they have the turnaround they expect.

Question 7

With rotation and pen lacking pitch to contact guys, think that changes outlook on who plays SS this upcoming season? Odds of Alika on 40 next season? – Robert Bishop

I don’t see much reason to keep Alika on the 40-man, I also don’t think it has much to do with your first point. Bottom line, he’s just got a ceiling that even if reached probably makes him a glove first, light hitting bench player and they have better shots at production than him.

On the first point, HMM. I’m not sure thy lack pitch to contact guys as much as they have some guys who haven’t quite learned to hunt contact effectively yet.

Again, the freak leads the way. Paul Skenes has still racked up huge strikeout numbers, but as the season has played out, he’s learned he has to hunt contact a bit more if he wants to last deeper into games, he’s just having a hard time putting it into practice.

There have been games where he started out seeking contact and quick at bats, it’s led to getting touched up a bit here and there and then he goes back to what he’s comfortable with.

This is a team that very much so had pitch to contact guys especially in the rotation before this year and they played Cruz there so I can’t imagine now they’re making defensive decisions based on pitcher type, even if they should.

Question 8

What does our roster look like next year?
1B – Billy Cook
2B – Gonzales
3B – Hayes??
C – Endy & Bart/Grandal?
SS – IKF
LF – Reynolds
RF – Brian DLC
CF – Cruz
SP – Skenes
SP – Keller
SP – Jones
SP – Falter
SP – Oviedo
Bull Pen – Harrington, Chandler, Ashcraft, Ortiz, etc
What about Tamaar Johnson? Etc? – Tony Demangone

Obviously, I’m not ready to predict the entire roster, but this is probably a good start. Grandal has no place in this conversation, he’s a free agent, he’s older than the sun and they have too many options aside from him. You can take the question marks off Hayes, unless something changes and he has surgery, he’ll be back. I’d add Jack to the RF mix, they’ll want to give him a shot, maybe even in a platoon with De La Cruz. In fact, both of them could start in AAA and they’ll bring in a vet. Oviedo vs Ortiz, I’d probably flip them, but who knows, Harrington or Bubba could sneak in there and move both to the BP. If Johnson is here in 2025, it’ll be the very end most likely and would take Cook, Yorke who you somehow didn’t mention in all that, Gonzales, Peguero, Triolo, or maybe Hayes injury, well, point is, he’d need a lot to happen to open that door, not least of which would be his performance. He does legitimately look to be getting better, but he’ll start in AA for sure and I bet they have him there half the year minimally.

Question 9

What do you think the Pirates could have done differently when you look at the Milwaukee Brewers? The Brewers traded their ace to Baltimore, they let Craig Counsell go to the Cubs, I felt for sure they’d regress this year, but they won the division again after they just won it last year. Their payroll may be more than us, but when you compare it to the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Mets, and the Phillies it’s peanut-sized. $114 million according to the adjusted combined totals, they don’t spend that much more when you think about it. Dejan Kovacevic berrates Ben Cherington every day on a daily basis and feels Bob Nutting should have chosen Matt Arnold, do you feel Dejan Kovacevic has some merit and do you feel Ben Cherington can get the Pirates over the hump and take this to the next level? – Neal Kokiko

Their payroll might even go down next year in Milwaukee. I see little chance they’ll be able to retain Willy Adames and I’d bet they’ll trade Devin Williams. They’ll still be good, might be the best run organization in baseball that isn’t Tampa. Matt Arnold was the number 2 in Milwaukee when the Pirates were doing their search, and I wanted him to be the selection as well, but as smart as Arnold is and as many good moves as he’s made, he has more flexibility to spend to win, as opposed to Bob Nutting’s modus operandi which is spend a little because you won.

The Brewers build it so you’ll come, the Pirates are the red headed brother in law trying to buy the damn farm.

And of course what Dejan says has some merit. Over the hump with Cherington? I think he’ll get them into the playoffs, does that count? If it doesn’t I’m not sure what to say, because the sun won’t rise on a day EVER where the Pirates roster side by side with the Dodgers/Yankees will ever look like an even match. Not under these economic conditions. I think he can and will put a playoff team on the field. I also think if he’s fired and replaced, the next guy who’s name I don’t know would too.

Question 10

How much value do you put into ‘counting’ stats? What do you use to evaluate if a player had a good season or not? Outside of the eye test. Bryan Reynolds might finish the season with the most hits he has ever had but was this year better than 2021 or 2022? – Patrick Bradford-Kenney

Hard to like or watch baseball without some kind of appreciation for stats. So let me say it this way. For Pirates players, I usually use stats to confirm my suspicions or prove me wrong because I watch them every game, so I have a good idea of how everyone is doing, stats might show me something I missed while doing so. For prospects, it’s rarely about the season stats it’s about where they start, where they finish, and more importantly, how they looked as they finished.

From watching Bryan this year, my takeaway is that this is the most consistent he’s been. He never had a really extended valley in production. That’s new, that’s important. Might not be his best statistical year, but if he can be a steadying force in the lineup that’s more important to me than MVP votes.

For other teams, I work backwards. Stats paint a picture, and I watch to see if the player backs up what I see in the stats. One game isn’t enough, but a series against a hitter? Yeah, it can be at times. If it’s a guy I might want them to trade for, I’ll watch a lot more video, read a lot more opinion from local outlets.

Question 11

Are we good to move on from Derek Shelton? If we had to do it all over again, should we have put Chandler, Harrington, and Ashcraft in the Bullpen? I don’t know how many limits that were issued from the front office but it appeared as if it were a complete management failure. Thoughts? – Tony Demangone

Sure.

I believe Ashcraft would have but he couldn’t stay healthy ultimately, which has just about always been his problem.

Chandler and Harrington moved multiple levels this year and have been up against it on innings for a while. No, I wouldn’t have done this to them for just about any reason.

Question 12

What is a reasonable guess to how much the Pirates will spend in free agency? Is Haines finally going to be fired thud offseason? – James Littleton

I bet they’ll target 30-35 Million and payroll will push over 100 Million, I’m also not entirely sure that’s all free agency as it could also be partially extensions. On Haines, I sure hope so. 3rd year running in which I feel it’s imperative.

Question 13

With B Rey looking like he’s moving to 1st, how you think the catching situation works out? I just kinda assumed one of them (Endy) would end up at first. Also, non Pirates question. I know you’re a beer guy like me. What’s your top 5? – Longbeards

I think Joey Bart has a stranglehold on the starting gig until he doesn’t. Henry or Endy could very well start in AAA too. I think here’s where I ultimately am on the catching, when I feel we have 3 good MLB level catchers who can hit, I’ll start figuring out ways of handling my good fortune. Endy is a switch hitting athlete, I don’t worry about where he plays all that much because I’m fairly confident he can play like 4 or 5 positions.

Henry is a bit tougher, but if he hits the way they think he ultimately will, they’ll find him a home, problem is, it might be less of a choice. And Bart has been incredible. Lets see how long it lasts ya know?

No matter what, if this management team remains, they won’t play anyone there more than like 120 games tops.

Now onto the awesome part of this question.

I travel a lot, so I could get all weird and regional on you about beer, I’m going to try to stick to what I can fairly easily get right here in almost any distributor.

5. Brew Gentlemen – General Braddock’s American IPA
4. Grist House Brewing/Eat N Park – Strawberry Pie Forever (This only comes out once a year)
3. Bell’s – Two Hearted IPA
2. Dogfish Head – SeaQuench Ale
1. Southern Tier Brewing – 2XIPA

Question 14

If Haines is let go, should we be confident the Pirates will significantly alter their hitting approach? Or should there be a fear that Cherington hires someone with a similar philosophy? – Nick Cammuso

They stuck with Haines long enough that I’m not confident about anything here with the approach. Now, I can say, I recently wrote something similar to this in spirit and one of my “Cherington guys” reached out to tell me I’m way off base, according to them Ben would never pretend to understand hitting enough to formulate a philosophy for hitters.

I’d also say, this is EXTREMELY overblown, and I’ve played a role in doing so. The philosophy as I understand it is so basic, I could probably assign it to every team in the league and there’s a very good chance they too have the concepts baked into their core program. It’s the application of the philosophy, the adjustments that guys don’t even know to ask about, the lack of help they get at the MLB level, despite how hard the guy works.

They need to make a change because no matter what Haines has failed to apply it, but the next guy will say a ton of the same things. It won’t be because Cherington fed him lines or he’s reading from the handbook, it’ll be because again, almost everyone has these principles baked into their program as well.

Question 15

How do we convince Nutting to fire GMBC, Shelton and Haines and hire Kim Ng as GM and beg and plead for Terry Francona to leave retirement? – Keith

LOL.

There’s a lot here bro. I’m not sure what Kim Ng has done that would make me beg anyone to do anything.

I’m also not a fire Cherington guy. If they chose to go that way, I wouldn’t throw a fit, but I truly don’t think it’s time for that. The other two, yeah, they should go and ultimately Cherignton refusing to do so and assuming Bob has a different opinion might be your best path to getting all three out.

I hate to do this to you Keith, but Bob might be your best bet.

Starter Spotlight: Shaken Martinez

9-20-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Heading into the weekend series in Cincinnati, the Pirates will face Nick Martinez again, who started against the Bucs in their August 25th matchup, pitching 3 innings and allowed 2 runs (1 earned) off 5 hits with no walks and one strikeout.

This was a spot-start for Martinez, opening for Carson Spiers as we discussed in the Starter Spotlight.

At the time, Martinez was bouncing between starting and pitching out of the bullpen but, with a number of injuries befalling their rotation, has secured a starting spot for the time being.

Over his three starts this month, Martinez has more than earned his role in the rotation as he pitched 18.2 innings with 11 hits, 2 earned runs, 4 walks and 18 strikeouts as he has won all three of those outings with a 0.96 ERA in that span.

Overall, Martinez has a 3.37 ERA on the season, pitching 128.1 innings across 40 games this year with a career-best 1.08 WHIP.

A veteran pitcher with 10+ seasons in pro ball, Martinez fills up the strike zone, avoids barrels and gets chases when he expands the zone with his excellent changeup being a big weapon for him.

Martinez works in the low-80s changeup with a low-90s 4-seam, high-80s cutter, low-90s sinker, low-80s curve and a mid-80s slider. 

He has leaned more heavily on the sinker when facing righties while posting near equal numbers for the 4-seam, changeup and cutter versus left-handed hitters.

Martinez works up in the zone with his 4-seam/cutter while dropping down more with both his change and curve. His sinker drops on the outer third of the plate against righties while breaking the slider down and in during these matchups.

One thing Martinez struggles with is keeping the ball on the ground, which is particularly problematic given his home ballpark as he has posted a 4.36 ERA over 66 innings pitched at Great American Ballpark compared to a 2.31 mark over 62.1 frames as the away team. Additionally, the cracks have started to show as a starter compared to a reliever.

First time through the lineup, opponents have a dismal .566 OPS against Martinez but that jumps to .885 the second time through with a .825 during the third go-round.

As a starter overall, he’s posted a 4.44 ERA with opponents posting a .742 OPS against compared to a 1.86 reliever ERA with a .560 OPS in that span.

Key to the game today will be trying to lay off the breaking ball and look for the high heat. He mixes in fastball variations nearly 60% of the time so staying on the low-90s and fouling off the junk in the zone will be critical in wearing Martinez down and getting to him later on in his start.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (72-81) at Cincinnati Reds (74-80)


9-20-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Two teams with post-season ambitions in the spring are now locked in the race to the bottom of the NL Central division this week with the Cincinnati Reds hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates for a weekend series.

Both teams are coming off rough series losses, with the Pirates dropping 3 of 4 to the Cardinals and the Reds losing 2 of 3 to the Atlanta Braves.

9/20
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 11-10, 169.2 IP, 3.87 ERA, 159 Ks/43 walks, 1.25 WHIP
Reds – Nick Martinez (R) – 9-6, 128.1 IP, 3.37 ERA, 142 Ks/30 walks, 1.08 WHIP

9/21
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) – 6-7, 112.1 IP, 3.85 ERA, 120 Ks/34 walks, 1.15 WHIP
Reds – Rhett Lowder (R) – 1-2, 20.2 IP, 1.74 ERA, 17 Ks/9 walks, 1.26 WHIP

9/22
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 10-3, 126 IP, 2.07 ERA, 158 Ks/32 walks, 0.98 WHIP
Reds – TBD

Pirates: Isiah Kiner-Falefa – IKF is finally starting to heat up for the Bucs, mostly slapping singles but, given that he’s mostly been batting lead-off, he’s critically been able to get on-base. Since 9/7, he has batted .333, going 17-for-51 with 5 doubles and 6 runs scored. Could he be doing more on both sides of the ball? Definitely. But given the expectations created since he came over from Toronto, I think you’ll take what he is giving you right now.

Reds: TJ Friedl – Over the past week, Friedl is batting .474 with two home runs and six RBI. He has had struggles at times this season, dropping down to the bottom third of the lineup at times, but has been on a heater this month as he collected hits in 12 of his 16 starts in September.

Pirates: Rowdy Tellez – Following another hitless appearance Thursday, Rowdy is now in a 21 at-bat hitless skid, looking more and more uncomfortable as the days pass. The story was good and the production he provided over the summer was fun but the sun is setting quickly on the Rowdy Tellez experience in black and gold.

Reds: Santiago Espinal – After slashing .376/.419/.587 with a .173 wRC+ over a torrid two month stretch in July and August, Espinal has fallen back to earth in September as he is batting .220 with just one extra base hit over his 59 at-bats this month.

Key Injuries

Pirates: Kyle Nicolas (left oblique strain) – Nicolas hasn’t been the most consistent bullpen arm for the Pirates but his stuff can be filthy. This injury shortens an already struggling bullpen, which blew another game on Wednesday and has a combined 5.59 ERA since the start of August – 2nd worst in MLB behind only Boston (5.72).

Reds: Brandon Williamson (left elbow strain) – Williamson left his start on 9/17 in the second inning with an injury, which turned out to be a complete tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow. In layman’s terms, his elbow needs to be completely reconstructed via Tommy John Surgery, effectively wiping out his 2025 season after missing most of this season rehabbing from shoulder injury.

Team Notes

The Pirates already clinched the season series (7-3) but, with both teams playing for pride at this point in the year, would certainly want to add on there against the rival Reds.

Despite the offensive inefficiencies of the Pirates this year, the Reds are somehow worse as they are batting .233 on the season entering play Friday – ranked 26th in MLB – while the Pirates are a smidge above them with a team .236 average, ranking 23rd in MLB.

That said, the Reds are head-and-shoulders ahead of the Pirates when it comes to the power department with 170 home runs on the season compared to the Pirates, who have hit just 147 this year.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Fedde Wap

9-19-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

In danger of getting swept in the 4-game series and clinching a sixth straight losing season, the Pirates will face-off against Erick Fedde.

A former first round pick by the Washington Nationals in 2014, Fedde, who joined the Cardinals via a mid-season trade from the White Sox, struggled in his first few years in MLB before finding success overseas last year in Korea.

In 2023, Fedde went 20-6 over 30 starts with a 2.00 ERA and 209 strikeouts across 180.1 innings in the KBO, earning the league MVP at season’s end and earning another shot with an MLB contract worth $15M for 2 years with the White Sox.

His first year back in the states has been prosperous, posting a 3.45 ERA across 164.1 innings split between the White Sox and Cardinals with 141 Ks to just 50 walks.

Fedde offers a low-90s sinker, low-90s cutter and a high-80s changeup. Prior to his time playing internationally, Fedde had a high-70s curve but scrapped it and replaced the ineffective offering with a low-80s sweeper, which has become his most effective pitch resulting in a .171 oBA and a .326 oSLG – the lowest among his arsenal.

With a sweeper breaking down glove-side, Fedde typically works sinker/sweeper/cutter against RHH while dropping the sweeper and pivoting to changeup when facing lefties, falling down and in on opposing hitters.

The good news is Fedde has struggled since joining the Cardinals, posting a 4.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 42.2 innings with St. Louis. 

The bad news is he continues to excel when pitching for the home team, posting a 1.98 ERA over 12 home starts this season between the White Sox and Cardinals, allowing just 15 earned runs over 68.1 frames.

Hitters from both sides of the plate should target heat. The cutter has resulted in 10 of his 20 home runs allowed with both the highest SLG (.479) and xSLG (.446) among his offerings. His sinker isn’t too far behind in either category and has the highest average exit velocity (93.2 MPH), making it a BIG target especially as he can hang pitches from time to time.

Let’s Go Bucs!

When a Bullpen is This Historically Bad, Almost Nothing Else Matters

9-19-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

As we start to postmortem this season there will be no shortage of shortcomings we’ll be able to highlight, but to me, nothing is more glaring than the performance of this bullpen.

Seen by national and local supposed knowers of ball including myself to be a strength of the club, and I went as far as to propose the bullpen’s excellence could help prop up the starting rotation that figured to be bottom of the league.

Wrong. Of course.

That’s not the issue as much as just how damn wrong.

Let’s not bury the lede, let’s show just how bad this pen has been in relation to the rest of the league.

The Pirates bullpen has lost 32 games, only 4 teams are worse.
Their ERA of 4.67 clocks in as the 4th worst in baseball.

They’ve had 67 Save opportunities and only managed to convert 38 of them. In fact, only 4 teams had more opportunities, while 12 have converted more chances.

That stat set right there is damning.

How about their 1.41 WHIP, good for 3rd worst in baseball. Opposing batting average sits at .252, 7th in baseball.

238 Walks has them 6th worst in baseball while Strikeouts sit at 546, 19th in the game.

We’re actually lucky it hasn’t been worse, with 54 homeruns give up there are only 5 teams who have given up fewer.

281 Earned runs, only 4 teams worse. Runs at 317, only 3 teams performed more poorly.

524 hits, only 8 teams gave up more.

The truth is, while there are gigantic glaring players who have performed in the past and didn’t this year, players who Derek Shelton could point to and feel good about were few and far between all season long.

Ask fans who the Pirates best reliever has been this year, you’ll probably get a bunch of Aroldis Chapman, well, he’s got a 4.11 ERA, he’s earned 9 saves and blown 5 with a WHIP of 1.42. His 92 K’s almost lap number two on the list but he’s also walked 39.

Colin Holderman has been shaky as hell recently, but his season numbers probably put him near the top of the performers list. 3.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .226 AVG against and in his 5 save opportunities he’s blown every single one.

Kyle Nicolas was getting fans to chatter about making him the closer for a while there, he’s got a 1.50 WHIP, 3.95 ERA, a .249 average against and his walks to K 31/55 isn’t sustainable in any way.

Hunter Stratton is hurt, but he also spent much of the season optioned to AAA and when I look at his numbers, I have to ask, WHY? 1.17 WHIP, 3.58 ERA, 7 Walks to 33 K’s

Jalen Beeks hasn’t been here all that long, but in 23 games the league is hitting .293 off of him.

The two best might be Carmen Mlodzinski and Waiver claim Dennis Santana. Carmen has had 2 save opportunities and blew both, he’s posted a 1.18 WHIP, .226 Average against and a 3.83 ERA in 31 opportunities. Santana has been incredible, 1.02 WHIP, .214 Average, 2.75 ERA, 45 Ks vs 10 Walks.

How could I not mention David Bednar? 30 save opportunities, 23 converted, 7 blown. A 3-8 record, 1.46 WHIP, opponents hit .248 off him, he’s given up 9 homeruns, 26 walks, 55 K’s, 6.17 ERA.

I look at this pen and simply put, where was a manager to turn? I mean, looking at this you have to wonder if the failure of the collective made Chapman look a lot more respectable than he’s actually been. It could be that or it could be that Chapman is either unhittable or can’t get an out, he’s just unhittable a lot more often. His overall numbers aren’t reflective of what you or I as a fan expect when he’s in, but damn, we sure should know it’s possible he fails right?

A lot of these guys were expected to perform, a lot of these guys will be expected to perform next year too.

Luck is a thing of course, but when 90% of your bullpen probably shouldn’t be trusted in the 8th or 9th inning of any game against anyone in a season it’s more than just dumb luck.

They’ve been stubborn to keep players in roles they clearly weren’t performing in, but again, look at these numbers, who were they to turn to?

It sounds weird to suggest it could be worse like I did with the homerun numbers earlier, but there are only 10 teams who have asked their bullpen to throw fewer innings, imagine if the starters were even a touch less good.

I don’t have an answer.

I can honestly say though, next year I bet we see them try to return Holderman, Mlodzinski, Bednar (in some capacity), Santana, Stratton (when healthy), and Kyle Nicolas. Dauri Moreta should be back, Luis Ortiz might wind up back there, which would be good since he was one of their better relievers, not that I’d allow that to stop him from starting if he keeps performing there too. Johan Oviedo could factor in to this pen in some form next year too. Maybe Ashcraft comes up here in the pen.

They’re going to have to invest here. They spent on Chapman, they need to do it again, and maybe more than one.

Expecting a couple guys to bounce back is one thing, expecting 6 or 7 guys to bounce back is probably just dumb.

Historically bad.

ERA by year is maybe not the best way to look at it but it’s easy to digest.

2024 – 27th in baseball – 4.67
2023 – 19th in baseball – 4.27
2022 – 29th in baseball – 4.72
2021 – 23th in baseball – 4.55
2020 – 20th in baseball – 4.62

How about some historically bad Pirates teams.

1954 – 13th in baseball – 4.55 Only 16 teams existed, the team lost 101 games.
1985 – 20th in baseball – 3.94 Only 26 teams existed, the team lost 104 games and converted 29 of 29 save opportunities.
1952 – 13th in baseball – 4.15 Only 16 teams existed, the team lost 112 games.

Three of the Pirates historically worst teams and most of them weren’t nearly as inept as this 2024 club was in the bullpen.

Blame who you want, I think they managed it poorly, but I’m reasonable, there weren’t really a whole lot of forks in the road for a manager to take, the GM needed to be more proactive here, period.

A bad bullpen makes just about everything else moot. You can’t enjoy offense because you have the constant dread it won’t be enough. You can’t enjoy starting pitching because you know when their outing ends, you’re going to likely sweat it out if not break your TV with a brick.

Progress in any area is minimized, winning streaks are damn near impossible, nobody does anything with confidence because frankly, they start to expect the game to fall apart.

Get To Work With Cook and Yorke

9-19-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With an offense that has been largely ineffective all season, it has been a breath of fresh air to call up two of our top position player prospects in Nick Yorke and Billy Cook. 

Sure, they weren’t developed by this organization, per se, with Cook coming over from the Orioles in exchange for RHP Patrick Reilly and Yorke being shipped from Boston for RHP Quinn Priester but when you have surplus in a certain role and a need in another, you deal from depth to gain production.

And that is certainly showing since the Pirates added both of these players over the past two weeks as Yorke already has multiple hits in 2 of his first 3 games and Cook hit a go-ahead 3-run home run against the Cardinals just last night. 

So, given that this is the time to figure out exactly what we have and what we need heading into the offseason, what exactly do we have with Cook and Yorke?

Cook

A 10th round pick out of Pepperdine University three years ago, Cook struggled to gain traction in a loaded Orioles system, posting a .231/.305/.437 line with 180 strikeouts to 43 walks in 565 plate appearances across the lowest levels of the minor leagues.

However, over the past two years, he has managed to find his niche, posting a .262/.347/.465 slash line between AA/AAA ball with 41 home runs and 40 doubles over 994 plate appearances – including posting an .875 OPS over 126 plate appearances with Indianapolis Indians post-trade – boosting his walk rate from 7.6% to 10.2% and cutting his K rate down to 24.2% from 31.9%.

And, again, the power is there.

Defensively, he’s played all over the field but mostly has featured in the outfield, showing of a strong arm with several assists already in his short MLB tenure as well as his 90th percentile speed to cover a ton of grass quickly.

Long-term, he potentially ends up as a corner outfielder who can shift to 1B at times as needed, striking out a bunch but also poking a fair amount of long-balls as a solid-to-above-average outfielder at PNC Park.

Yorke

Trading a prospect for a prospect at the deadline is one thing but trading a former first round pick who is actively pitching for your big league club as you are actively contending for a playoff spot is a bit different. 

That said, Nick Yorke quickly endeared himself to Pirate prospects fanatics, batting .355/.431/.507 over 175 plate appearances at Indy before finally earning a call-up earlier this week.

A 2020 first round pick, Yorke has had success throughout the minors with a .284/.365/.443 slash line over 1,862 minor league plate appearances.

Unlike Cook, Yorke is not a huge power threat with only 50 minor league round-trippers but he has shown plus-plate discipline and finds gaps with doubles and logged 33 two-baggers in 123 minor league games this season.

While he has mostly played 2B, he also bounces into the outfield. I would think he sticks in the infield – mostly because he can make plays like this even in the swirling winds at LECOM.

Conclusion

The team needs offense and these two have the ability to provide said offense in different ways. Will they be productive contributors pushing this team over the top to become playoff contenders in 2025?

Probably not on their own, but they are at the very least complementary pieces that provide upgrades over some other options this team has trotted out throughout the course of this rebuild. And you gotta hope that eventually some other pieces break through and we get back into playoff baseball once more.

Before Signing 1 Free Agent, Here’s What I’d Do with this Pirates Team

9-18-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I think about baseball, and building this team a lot. Like, unhealthy amounts of my mental capacity is filled with baseball knowledge and I’ll probably keep doing it until I lose something important like my Children’s birthdays or my anniversary to what’s her name…

A whole lot of that “knowledge” is tied into pretending I know what the Pirates will do. There’s a place for that, in fact, it’s most of what we try to do here, but today, I just want to pretend Bob Nutting charged out of his office and fired every single person from Ben Cherington on down and for some reason, perhaps some Wigle Whiskey, and pointed randomly into the street at me and I was brought in to “fix” the team, what would I do?

First things first, No GM, let alone some random guy like me is going to force this owner to spend more than he already planned to.

We know the budget will go up, because we know how they budget. Next year’s budget will be based on this year’s earnings, thanks Paul! We also know that arbitration will naturally increase the baseline for payroll over the course of the decade. 100Million next year without much effort at all.

Conservatively, I probably have 35-40 million to play with.

Aside from that, I’m gonna do what I want with the players. I’ll trade who I want, I’ll extend who I want, and since Bob gave me 5 years like just about anyone he’d hire, I might not even be 100% afraid to take a drastic step, let’s see where it takes me.

Pending Free Agents

Andrew McCutchen – I don’t believe Cherington was given a choice here, I don’t believe I’d be given a choice and even if I were, I’d take the production he provided this year for 5 million anyway.

Ryan Borucki – Bye Ryan, it was nice what ya did in 2023, good luck.

Aroldis Chapman – If he’ll take 10.5 again, sure, I’d do it. If he wants a raise at all, I’m out. 10.5 on the reliever market is good money.

Rowdy Tellez – I’m inclined to say no. Signing him again would be accepting a guy who has largely become a singles and doubles hitter who can’t run. The market is thin, so I can’t just completely brush this aside, unless I’m moving Bryan Reynolds to first base, in that case, bye Rowdy.

Yasmani Grandal – If I were hired today he’d be gone today.

Michael A. Taylor – Ditto

Jaylen Beeks – Unless I have access to a time machine I want nothing to do with this.

Hey, that was easy.

So that’s either 5 or 15 million of my budget.

Tender Decisions

There are things to consider here. Just because I decide to tender a guy, doesn’t mean I have to ultimately sign them. In other words, if I want to upgrade, but say I only see 1 or 2 guys on the market who could replace whomever I’m considering, I might want to tender them for insurance and ultimately change my mind knowing I could be on the hook, but also not feeling I have many who would go unsigned I’d be doing this with.

I also have to consider the 40-man spot, because it might be more valuable to protect players than hold them. On the surface, I don’t see much of a need for this, maybe a borderline player or two in total.

David Bednar – Arbitration year 2 – They agreed to 4.15 Million in 2023, and there’s zero chance he gets a raise. If he thinks he deserves one, I’d still tender him, but he won’t be on my team long, I want guys who are self aware enough to know you can’t do what he did in 2023 and come to me with your hand out. Yes, I’d tender him, even if it’s just wishful thinking that he returns to a useful reliever, let along closer. Worth a shot to me.

Connor Joe – Arbitration year 2 – Nope. I appreciate the story, the man, the effort, the flexibility, but I’ve got younger and cheaper people in spades who can do the same thing, and I still have the illusion of possibility they can do it better. 2 straight second half swoons, if it’s fair to say mid May is the start of the second half anyway, is enough for me.

Edward Olivares – Arbitration year 2 – I can’t see it. Not because it would be expensive, I bet you could get it done for a Million, I’m just not interested.

Joey Bart – Arbitration year 1 – Of course. I’d have to imagine he gets somewhere in the 2 million dollar range, and it’s a bargain considering they’ve paid essentially mushrooms to squat behind the plate 3 years running.

Johan Oviedo – Arbitration year 1 – Absolutely, and he’ll be dirt cheap. Maybe a Million or 1.2, something small. Even if he isn’t an immediate starter, this kid has closer stuff.

Bryan De La Cruz – Arbitration year 1 – The way I see this, I’m paying for what he’s done in 2024, not what he’s done as a Pirates player in 2024. He’s hit 20 dingers this year and as long as I think I can get this done for under 2 million, I think it’s worth it for the depth. If I somehow wind up with Jack Suwinski and Bryan in AAA as they both have options, hey, that’s better depth down there than I can recall, plus, if I’m moving on from Joe, I need to be mindful of what I’m leaving as a safety net.

Dennis Santana – Arbitration 2 – Sure. He’s been great down the stretch, and even if he reverts this number isn’t going to strangle the team.

Contracted Values

Bryan Reynolds will get a 2 million dollar raise from 10.25M to 12.25 in 2025. Ke’Bryan Hayes will remain at 7 Million. Isiah Kiner-Falefa stays at 7.5 Million. The big one is Keller who goes from 5.85M to 15.41 that’s approximately an overall increase of 11.4 Million without factoring in any other players departing or coming in.

Coaching

I had to get through the players if only to prove to myself, the bones of this team aren’t changing much.

I, a freshly minted GM, lol, have just looked through these decisions and made them entirely independent of my thoughts about the coaching.

Right or wrong, this call takes me all of 10 seconds.

I wouldn’t be here if they were happy with the previous GM right? And if he didn’t get the job done, I’m hardly going to go into next season with 75% the same team and the same coaches am I?

They’re all gone, and I’m not sure I’d ask a single player for their opinion, because each and every one of them could have or should have done better if they wanted to save their boss’ job.

Presume I’ll make a smart hire or read this for some of my initial suggestions.

Extensions

The first thing I’d look to do is make sure this window that the previous regime failed to open all the way, stays open for a bit longer than many of my brand new fan base believe possible.

I do that with 2 key extensions this offseason. Even if it costs me the ability to spend a few bucks in free agency.

Oneil Cruz – No, I don’t believe we’ve seen all of what Cruz can be, but I do feel like his position at least for the foreseeable future is settled. I think he has a lot of room to improve, I also think he will. You can’t do this without offensive stars, and I mean the type who can take over for a month at a time and dominate the league. Cruz may not be that, but he’s my best shot in the system at the moment, and I strike now, before he enters arbitration and cements his value. He’ll be 26 years old. I’d approach him with a 7 year deal, buying out his final pre-arbitration year, all three years of arbitration and 3 years of his free agency, and I start at 105 Million. I’d have flexibility here, that’s the bottom rung on the ladder, but an AAV of 15 Million starting in a year where he’d make about 800K and then max 35 million over 3 years of arbitration, that’s a fair starting point. At this point of his career, I’m making a bet, just like Oneil would be if he passed on it.

Paul Skenes – Yeah, it’s insane, but this guy will make nothing for a couple years, then hit arbitration and start to cost really quickly. We don’t even know how many years of control the team has, although we will by the time the awards are dished out this offseason. I ignore all of that and offer him 10 years 200 million. That sends him into free agency at age 32, pays him an AAV of 20 million, 80 million of which would be paid out during a stretch he’d have probably made no more than 40 if he maxed out arbitration and it gives him insurance from arm trouble costing him money. It also locks me in if he pulls a Kerry Wood. Thing is, this guy is extremely responsible for this team being on the cusp of being relevant, so I’m happy to avoid all the low pay grossness early on and arguing in arbitration about the length of his outings just to make him part of my extended core.

If I’ve just spent all my free agent money, shame on Bob, but I’m not getting anywhere without these two and only a fool would pretend you’ll be set up with equal talents in 5-6 years when these guys are being moved for prospects.

In other words, If this owner leaves me no choice but to feel I have to grow this internally, I’m going to finish locking down the bones of something I think could be competitive.

Set a Big Goal

If I’m allowed to do all these things, I’d still need to sign some free agents or make some trades, but before I do, I want to firmly lay out what I expect I can achieve here with these basic things done through the end of Paul’s contract extension.

Big, not insane. Nobody can predict championships, but you can count shots at them.

In 10 years of Paul Skenes, I’d commit to 7 playoff appearances. I’d do it loud and proud to in an effort to put some pressure on a franchise that hates having any applied.

7 Playoff shots in a ten year span is probably a bit much, but if I’m trying to convince someone like Bob to commit to that kind of futuristic spending, I can’t see avoiding having to commit to what he could get out of it.

Hey, maybe he just fires me too and points at another stooge, but that’s where I’d go. None of that really looks outside this team’s current assets and yes, it depends heavily on improving guys who are here and adding along the way, but I my goal were to win and win back the fans, I can think of no better way than to lock up guys they long since assumed would be gone in half a decade and publicly commit to winning a lot more than we lose.