Starter Spotlight: Sonny With A Chance of Fastballs

9-18-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Pirates will next send Jake Woodford against 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up, Sonny Gray – who last faced Pittsburgh on June 12th tossing 7 frames of 4-hit, 1-run ball walking 1 while striking out 9 Bucs batters.

Gray is 13-9 and has a 3.75 ERA over 160.2 innings through his first season in St. Louis – but has gotten into a groove as of late, allowing just 3 runs over his last 3 starts and 19 innings pitched.

His ability to miss bats, induce chases and generate strikeouts has continued in the Gateway City, ranking 6th in strikeout rate among all starting pitchers.

While his main offering is his low-90s 4-seam, Gray also throws a high-80s cutter, low-90s sinker, low-80s curve and a high-80s changeup but his most effective offering has been his sweeper, which sits mid-80s and breaks off his fastball moving in the opposite direction.

https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1834293889001254922?s=46&t=uS-wvKiQUPugLtQFzfMtqQ

Gray works 4-seam/curve/sweeper combo against lefties and leans more sinker/cutter/sweeper against righties.

But the main thing is batters will see a lot of fastballs and strikeout against the sweeper a TON as 109 of his 195 Ks have come with the sweeper – which has a whopping 43.8% whiff rate – despite only throwing the pitch 20% of the time.

Opposing hitters are batting just .142 against the sweeper compared to .310 versus the 4-seam and .279 against the cutter. His sinker has produced positive overall results as well, with a .198 BAA but Bucs batters will need to lean on the heat.

The Pirates have a number of things working against them today. For starters, the offense has been beyond anemic all season, mustering a single run over the first two games while leaving 13 men on base. They won’t get many opportunities against Gray and will need to capitalize when they get those chances. 

Second, Gray is very good at home! That’s underselling it a bit, honestly. Gray is DOMINANT when pitching at Busch Stadium.

His home ERA of 2.56 ranks 8th lowest among all qualified starting pitchers while his 2.32 FIP is 3rd best behind only Chris Sale and Garrett Crochet.

Pirates batters need to stay on the fastball if they’ll have any success today. Try to catch the break on the sweeper early and spit on those pitches.

Uphill battle but hopefully the team rises to the occasion today.

Let’s Go Bucs!

An Early Look at Potential Free Agent Targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates

9-17-24 – Ethan Smith– @mvp_EtHaN

At 71-79, the Pittsburgh Pirates are squarely out of postseason contention, and with that thought process comes another thought process, the 2024-2025 offseason, and how the Pirates will attack all of the decisions that will ultimately come their way through winter and spring.

This past offseason, we saw Pittsburgh acquire Aroldis Chapman, Rowdy Tellez, Michael A. Taylor and Yasmani Grandal, just to name a few, that have all had impacts on the 2024 roster in one way or another. Combined, those four have a 1.9 WAR, just 0.1 higher than rookie pitcher Jared Jones.

The offseason always comes with surprise acquisitions, trades and decisions, and for the Pirates, the needs of the roster, first base, corner outfield and in the bullpen, among others, have options available over the next few months, so let’s take a look at players the Pirates could target when the offseason arrives.

3B Alex Bregman

Longtime Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman becomes an unrestricted free agent this winter, slashing .254/.311/.440 with 23 home runs and 67 RBIs with a 3.4 WAR.

Bregman, who has hit 20-plus home runs over the past three seasons and five times over the course of his nine MLB seasons, would immediately give teams in need of third base offensive production a boost at the position, seeing as his OPS has been north of .751 in every season he’s played in the bigs.

In 2023, Bregman has 92 walks, which has dipped to 41 walks in 2024, but his strikeouts have remained in the same ballpark, having 87 in 2023 and 81 currently in 2024 with a few weeks left to play. He ranks in the 33rd percentile in walk percentage via Statcast, but his 12.7-percent strikeout rate is among the best in baseball.

Bregman rarely chases either, by evidence of his 23.6-percent chase rate, so his ability to get on-base despite the low walk total is hard to ignore.

On top of what Bregman offers offensively, his defense at third base is above average, thanks to his 6 OAA in 2024 and his combined 22 OAA in his career.

Per Spotrac, Bregman currently possesses a $20-million AAV, and as a Scott Boras client, his price tag will likely exceed that total come this offseason. Bregman will be entering his age 31 season in 2025, so that will be a factor in contract negotiations among the multiple suitors Bregman will likely have.

The price tag may be too high for what the Pirates have historically offered in free agency, but if Ke’Bryan Hayes injury complications continue, the Pirates would likely want continuity at the position, and Bregman would give them just that as a better option than Jared Triolo or Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

1B Christian Walker

With uncertainty at first base, the Pirates will surely look to free agency or the trade market, much like they did with Rowdy Tellez in 2023, and Christian Walker is among the best free agent first baseman on the market in 2025.

Walker, 33, has had 25-plus home runs in the past three seasons, slugging north of .477 in each of those three seasons.

Walker is slashing .257/.345/.483/.828 with 25 home runs and 78 RBIs as the 2024 season comes to a close, and Walker continues to be a catalyst in a strong Diamondbacks offense that is looking for yet another NL Pennant as the playoffs approach.

Walker is strong offensively and defensively, posting a .359 xwOBA and .475 xSLG with a 97th percentile OAA. Adding his 14.2-percent barrel rate, 47.6-percent hard-hit rate, and 90th percentile bat speed only proves further what offensive production Walker would bring to any ball club.

The 24.7-percent strikeout rate has been worrisome in 2024, but Walker finds a way to get on base via walks at a 10.8-percent rate, and his OBP has increased in each of the last three seasons.

Walker will be 34 next season, so by no means is he a long-term fix at first base, but his offense brings more to the table than what the Pirates have seen is some time from first base, with his defense adding to the production Walker would bring to Pittsburgh.

Walker is among the best free agent first base options available behind Pete Alonso, Anthony Rizzo and Paul Goldschmidt, so the Pirates should monitor Walker through the offseason to solidify the first base position, especially with uncertainty on if Rowdy Tellez will return and if Bryan Reynolds could make a move to first base next season.

OF Tyler O’Neill

If the Pirates do decide to move Bryan Reynolds to first base, and even if they don’t and keep him in left field, the corner outfield spots have to be solidified in some way for the Pirates.

Outfielder Tyler O’Neill, 29, could do just that, as he’s slashing .254/.347/.541/.888 with 31 home runs and 61 RBIs, his second season with 30-plus home runs.

O’Neill’s BABIP sits at .324, the first time his BABIP has been above .300 since 2021. He’s also posted his second most extra-base hits in a season this year with 49, with his highest total of 62 also coming in 2021.

Although his xBA of .220 is among the worst in MLB, along with a strikeout rate and whiff rate above 30-percent, his power is undeniable, by evidence of his 17.2-percent barrel rate and 49.6-percent hard hit rate.

Defensively, O’Neill has a -4 OAA, so he doesn’t offer much of an upgrade defensively from what the Pirates currently have, but he has experience at both corner outfield spots, having played nearly 3800 innings in left and right field, primarily as a left fielder.

O’Neill will turn 30 next season and with his power, his price tag should increase from his previous AAV of $5.85-million, but bringing in a 30-plus home run player with just below average defense should absolutely be something the Pirates consider heading into next season, seeing as the corner outfield options of Bryan De La Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Billy Cook and potentially Nick Yorke come with plenty of question marks, whereas O’Neill would fill the void while those questions are eventually answered.

OF Anthony Santander

The Baltimore Orioles have been going through a youth movement over the past half decade, leading to becoming competitors in the AL.

Despite that, veteran outfielder Anthony Santander has continued to contribute as well, especially in 2024, as he’s slashing .241/.311/.514 with 41 home runs and 95 RBIs. Santander has had 28 or more home runs and 89 or more RBIs in the past three seasons, seeing his OPS increase in every season since 2021.

Santander has ranked 16th or higher in the AL in home runs four times since 2020, and his xSLG of .468 and xwOBA of .333 this season are signs that Santander has no plans to slow down.

Santander ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in barrel rate, sweet spot percentage, and whiff rate to add more positives. His glaring negative is his chase rate, which sits at 34.0-percent, but he doesn’t strike out much(19.8-percent) and walks at an above average rate(8.4), so his offensive game is well rounded.

The Orioles have primarily played Santander as a right fielder this season and placed him in the lineup as a DH, although Santander also has experience as a left fielder as well. His -2 OAA this year is evidence that his defense isn’t above average, but his bat more than makes up for the lack of defense.

Santander will be an UFA in 2025, and for the Pirates, he, like O’Neill, would solidify a corner outfield spot for the Pirates next season, and with the Orioles continuing to lean into their youth, they may not pursue Santander in free agency, but it is likely he’ll have plenty of suitors.

SS Ha-Seong Kim

The Pirates decided to move Oneil Cruz from shortstop to center field, thus leaving questions as shortstop, which has been occupied primarily by Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Of the defensive positions IKF can play, shortstop has statistically been his worst, so the thought of adding a shortstop in free agency should be on the minds of the front office, and Ha-Seong Kim hits the open market this winter and has a track record of being an above average defender at shortstop.

Kim, 28, has a 4 OAA in 2024 and has never had a negative OAA in his career, posting a 24 OAA across his four MLB seasons.

Kim is adequate offensively as well, slashing .233/.330/.370 with 11 home runs and 47 RBIs this year. Outside of 2021, Kim’s OPS has been north of .700 in every season he’s played, and on top of that, Kim is a weapon on the base path, having 78 stolen bases in his career.

If Kim were signed, he’d give Pittsburgh a solid defensive option at shortstop with some offensive upside while also having the ability to move IKF around the diamond. Kim is one of the best shortstops available on the open market this winter and has a mutual $7-million option with the Padres, so their is no guarantee he is available, but if he is, he should be on the Pirates radar.

SP Michael Lorenzen

The Pirates have added a starting pitcher in free agency in every season since Ben Cherington became the general manager, and continuing that trend could be on the table this offseason.

Pittsburgh has a solid base for a starting rotation entering next season, headlined by Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones with a supporting cast of Bailey Falter and Luis Ortiz, but injuries happen every season to a team’s rotation, much like we saw in Pittsburgh with Jared Jones and his lat injury, so adding a starter could be a smart move.

Michael Lorenzen makes sense as an innings eating starter to slot into the back-end of the rotations. Lorenzen has a 3.43 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 126 IP this year across 23 starts, including a 1.25 WHIP.

On his career, Lorenzen has a 4.01 ERA, and his advanced analytics have never popped off the page, especially this year, with his highest percentile ranking being 59-percent average exit velocity allowed.

Lorenzen has never allowed much hard contact, allowing just 35.5-percent in his career, and his strikeout totals have never been high either, by evidence of his 19.3-percent career strikeout rate.

Lorenzen has played for six different teams in his 10 seasons as a pitcher, and there is always a place for pitchers who work with ground balls well and avoid hard contact, and Lorenzen would solidify the back-end of the Pirates rotation and give them insurance in case of injury or dips in production.

Wrap Up

Free agency is always unpredictable after the marquee targets go off the board, and this free agent period should be no different.

Pittsburgh has clear needs, and will, hopefully, look to fill those needs via free agency or trades when the offseason arrives in a few weeks. The players listed above should give you a solid base line as to what the Pirates could, and well, should acquire, and who knows, maybe we get another surprise signing this offseason, much like we did with Aroldis Chapman last year.

There are about two weeks left, and the offseason can get muddy quick, but for the Pirates, its another defining one they are about to enter into as they look for their first postseason berth since 2015 and, more importantly, look to take a step forward in what has been a lengthy rebuild.

Starter Spotlight: Lynn Again

9-17-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Old man Lance Lynn has tormented the Pirates over the years despite his below average stats and stuff. That has continued in his return to the Red Birds this year as he started the game against the Pirates on 6/13 where the Cardinals won 4-3, and on 7/23, he pitched 5 shutout frames to lead St. Louis to victory over Pittsburgh again by a 2-1 final score.

Coming back from a knee injury which cost him more than a month of play this season, the 37-year old Lynn enters play today with a 6-4 record on the year and a 3.96 ERA over 111.1 innings of work.

His strikeout and walk rates are among the worst of his career as his velocity has continued to tick down on his pitches. And yet, he eats innings, gets outs and does so without allowing much damage.

We mentioned ahead of the previous two matchups (see here and here) that Lynn had previously struggled with the long-ball, leading all of baseball in home runs allowed with 44 and a HR/9 rate of 2.16 and HR/FB of 19%.

While he has managed to stabilize both of those metrics with a 1.21 HR/9 and 10.9% HR/FB rate, he still allows a good amount of hard contact and a lot of it comes in the air.

His xERA of 4.85 is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. Additionally, his ground ball rate of 36.7% is in the bottom 20 in baseball while his 10.1% barrel rate ranks 5th worst among qualified pitchers, indicating his face-value numbers may be more propped up by luck than talent.

Lynn still pushes in his chips with a fastball-heavy arsenal, leaning on a low-90s 4-seam/sinker and a high-80s cutter that make up over 75% of his total pitches thrown.

He mixes the pitches evenly against opposing hitters regardless of lefty/righty splits – though, he will mix in a mid-80s changeup down and in against left-handed hitters.

His sinker and cutter have generated the worst results for Lynn with oBA of .289 and .316, respectively, but all of his fastballs have been hit hard with xSLG of .430+ for each.

Bucs batters should look for elevated heaters and drive them hard. There’s some pop missing from the box scores lately and, facing Lynn today, these hitters should bring out the lumber and find some seats.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Winding Down

9-16-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The baseball season in Pittsburgh is almost over.

The Pirates are almost always gracious enough to move out of the way for the Steelers and Penguins seasons to begin, and honestly, I’m sick of it.

I knew I would be, but the uninspired way the club has played since the calendar flipped to August has made it last longer than I’d hoped.

We’re winding down the season now, and in doing so, I’m going to start sewing bows on some comparison stuff between last year and this, and I’m going to talk to the elephant in the room.

Change needs to come, but all we’re seeing is a team that isn’t poised to make many.

Let’s go.

1. Get to a Minor League Game if You Can

I’m a firm believer, a fan who watches minor league baseball, especially in person, is probably a bit more aware of some “baseball truths” than many of their neighbors.

Take Friday night in Altoona for instance. Termarr Johnson had 5 plate appearances, 2 singles, a double, 2 walks, 2 RBI and a stolen base.

Terrific to see, certainly the kind of numbers we’d hope to see from the number 4 overall pick from a couple seasons back.

Well, like I said, I was there.

In all that activity, Johnson hit 1 ball that I believe would have been a hit in MLB. I don’t say that to disparage him, I simply say it because 99% of the time, I’ve got little more than that box score I reeled off up there along with a few highlights that tend to show a ball moving through the infield for a split second. Being there, I can see that Richmond had a kid playing second who had very little range, and a first baseman who lacked the experience to wander far enough off the line to secure the play himself.

Overall, what I took from Termarr’s night, he is one of the very few in that lineup who is capable of making a batted ball sound like it does in MLB. His double was a no doubt, well struck ball that rung through the ball park. The walks were quality at bats, not a result of being worked around.

Endy Rodriguez played in this game too, he went 1 for 5 with a sharp single that drove in a run and an absolute missile to left that was dropped for a glaring error. Being there though, he hit the ball hard 3 or 4 times aside from the hit, he ran well, and again, the only person in the lineup aside from Johnson who made what I consider to be MLB bat sounds.

Anthony Solometo only surrendered 2 runs but being there, he got hit hard. Laser after laser into the outfield, but he threw strikes and stayed in the fight. He also couldn’t hold a runner at first to save his life, let alone outing.

Point is, I think fans in general would really benefit from checking out a game or two. Doesn’t even need to be your team’s affiliate, just minor league baseball period. Go see the game minus the bells and whistles. Go see what AA or AAA players look and sound like. See how often that pedestrian looking ground ball gets through. See how often guys swing at that curve ball 3 feet in front of the plate.

More than anything, see how often you say to yourself, this is a step down from what I watch everyday. It’ll help you look at those .345 averages and maybe stop assuming they’ll hit .300 in MLB. You’ll find yourself realizing a scoreless frame in AA isn’t exactly the 7th inning against the Dodgers.

It’s good baseball, it’s fun baseball, it’s pure baseball, and more than anything, it’s inferior baseball and as we continue on this journey we’re going to start seeing “good players” who can’t crack MLB. What I’m saying here is, watch a bit more MiLB action and you’ll start to see why that isn’t always a bad thing or at the very least, why it takes some more time than you’d hope.

2. Examining the Offseason

It’s impossible to look at the team as they play out the string and not think about this offseason. It’s equally impossible to look at the offseason and predict what moves will be or should be made if only because we can’t say for sure we know who will be making said decisions.

Additionally, a month ago, I’d have told you the Pirates have to go get a Center fielder and a first baseman along with the prerequisite bullpen options that happen every offseason.

Today, I can honestly say, Center field is off the shopping list with Oneil Cruz moving there and just today, the plausibility of Bryan Reynolds becoming the team’s First Baseman seems more realistic than ever. Each of those moves, one theoretical as we speak, leave holes in their wake. And those holes, need to be filled professionally.

They have some prospects and young players that will surely continue to develop and could merit a shot at the show, but they’re entering an offseason where leaving holes open for “the kids” should be about the farthest thing from what they’re thinking.

It’s time to flip the switch. Prospects should no longer be seen as having some kind of reservation for the Bigs, and instead, hope that they force their way onto the club, take a spot away from a veteran and never let go.

In other words, prospects coming up should no longer be about when they’re ready, and instead when they legitimately could be an upgrade.

Take a guy like Bubba Chandler. Great looking kid, probably going to push his way up here in 2025, but if the Pirates have 5 starters going good and he’s churning too, well, call the fairness police, but that kid isn’t going to get called up until he’s needed. He’ll wait for a poor performance or injury for his chance.

If Termarr comes to camp next year and hits seemingly to his potential and rips up the minors, he’s still going to have to hope Nick Gonzales falls back or there’s an opening at DH to get a shot.

It’s no longer about their arrival times, and more about developing more fully at the minor league level before they get that chance, and when they do, keeping their spot. Hopefully, that will improve their hit rate on players performing when they do get the call too.

3. NL Central Performance

I think it’s interesting to see what some of the Pirates sure fire returning players have done against the NL Central, and yes, I know there are still more games to be played.

Here is Bryan Reynolds

TeamAt BatsAVGHROPS
Brewers39.33331.010
Reds41.3412.933
Cubs53.2643.811
Cardinals32.2501.732

How about Oneil Cruz

TeamAt BatsAVGHROPS
Brewers28.3570.919
Reds38.2371.624
Cubs51.2552.749
Cardinals33.2420.630

How about Andrew McCutchen

TeamAt BatsAVGHROPS
Brewers32.34431.025
Reds22.1821.697
Cubs30.2333.884
Cardinals30.1331.535

Finally, Nick Gonzales

TeamAt BatsAVGHROPS
Brewers23.2611.683
Reds24.1670.334
Cubs45.2891.713
Cardinals30.2330.583

If winning the division is the goal in 2025, and it certainly should be, some of these numbers will have to improve to be sure.

4. What Do You Mean by “Fully Expect”?

I have a hard time with much of this. First of all, in my real life, I’m a marketing professional and as I examine the “marketing” of this baseball team, I’m already fighting the urge to add yet another category this franchise utterly fails at to the discourse.

Statements aren’t marketing, but public relations are intertwined enough that at the very least it’s easy to see bad PR sometimes is the very cause for needing good marketing.

For the past 3 weeks, just about every week Derek Shelton has been asked on his radio show on 93.7 the Fan if he had been told he was going to be back in 2025 and every week he’s deflected it.

It stands to reason, someone was going to ask Ben Cherington too. It was on his radio show, hosted by team employees where it finally was posed, and here’s the deal, the question doesn’t get asked unless he’s ready to answer it in that format.

It also means exactly nothing. And by nothing, I mean absolutely zero can be taken from this comment up to and including the GM’s desire to keep or fire his manager.

The only scenario in which he could answer it differently would be if he had decided that afternoon Shelton was going to be informed he would be removed at the end of the season, and that would prompt a follow up regarding why keeping him to the bitter end makes sense.

So I guess I’m wrong, you can take one thing from it, Derek Shelton will finish 2024 as the manager. After that, all bets are off.

I can honestly say, if this was in complete isolation, and Ben Cherington felt secure and nobody else had a say, he’d probably keep him. The idea of a 5 year plan, or that this was some sure fire year they were supposed to produce X, Y or Z result, is largely based on fan (and media) historic belief that this length of time should be enough to produce whatever those results were supposed to be to them. The GM was never under such a timeline.

Marketing, AKA what Travis Williams does supposedly, well, that is going to be hard regardless of the latitude the GM thought he had, and even if by some chance he and the owner gave him the thumbs up to go ahead and give Shelton a vote of confidence, that marketing reality will create pressure to change. Something. Anything. But something significant, because what they’ll need to create more than anything is a viable and realistic way to say, “Next year will be different/better”.

Maybe it’s my age. Maybe it’s what I do for a living. All I know is just about the last place I go for information about this team or what they might do is the public statements they make.

Clint Hurdle learned this lesson in 2019 when he was told he’d be back, passed that message along to the media and then a week later was fired directly by Bob Nutting before he turned the musket on Frank Coonely and Neil Huntington.

The 3 games they lost that week didn’t change his fortunes. Nobody “lied” to you if you will.

I intended to make a box of Mac and Cheese with dinner last night until I realized the milk was spoiled. So did I lie to my wife or did I just have a closer look when dinner time came around?

5. Team Rankings 2023 VS 2024

Again, we still have some games to go, but time to start tangibly looking at where they fell in the rankings against the league. Sometimes you can make a case that things improved and the record just refused to come along for the ride. I’m not sure we can say that, but to find out, we have to look.

Remember, there are 30 teams…

Stat20232023 Ranking20242024 Ranking
Homeruns1592814426
Doubles2871021925
Walks556945017
K’s (Hitting)146410137725
Average.23924.23623
OPS.70722.67426
Stolen Bases117159717
RISP.25515.23225
WHIP1.38221.3123
K’s (Pitching)136321124520
Opp Average.25120.25224
Walks (Pitching)5962646611
Opp HR1792315623
Earned Runs7312260913
ERA4.60224.1319

There have been different players, successes and failures. Development that didn’t take, some prospects who flew and stuck and all in all, very little noticeable improvement.

We can talk about a ton of subjects, but we’ll never escape this simple truth. The team is in neutral and that usually means big changes, not status quo in MLB.

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (71-78) at St. Louis Cardinals (74-75)

9-16-24 – Ethan Smith– @mvp_EtHaN

The 2024 season is coming to a close, which means the last stretch of divisional matchups for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh heads on the road to begin this final stretch, beginning with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pittsburgh enters this series 4-5 versus St. Louis this year, winning the most recent series 2-1 over the Cardinals in July.

Neither team has scored seven or more runs in the nine games between the NL Central rivals, with the last series featuring 11 combined runs scored over the three games.

St. Louis still has an outside shot at the postseason, although it is very unlikely, with the Cardinals sitting 7.0 GB of the Braves and Mets, who are currently tied for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Pirates are 10.0 GB and although not mathematically eliminated, the likelihood is low for a Pirates postseason berth.

A Pirates series win over the next four days would virtually knock the Cardinals out of any postseason contention and would also give the Pirates the season series win over St. Louis if they can win three of the next four.

The series begins at 7:45pm ET tonight.

9/16
Cardinals – Andre Pallante (R) – 6-8, 102.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 77 Ks/45 walks, 1.40 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 10-2, 120.0 IP, 2.10 ERA, 151 Ks/31 walks, 0.99 WHIP

9/17
Cardinals – Lance Lynn (R) – 6-4, 111.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 104 Ks/42 walks, 1.36 WHIP
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 8-7, 128.2 IP, 4.20 ERA, 89 Ks/39 walks, 1.27 WHIP

9/18
Cardinals – Sonny Gray (R) – 13-9, 162.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 195 Ks/39 walks, 1.07 WHIP
Pirates – Luis Ortiz (R) – 6-6, 122.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 95 Ks/39 walks, 1.13 WHIP

9/19
Cardinals – Erick Fedde (R) – 8-9, 164.1 IP, 3.45 ERA, 141 Ks/50 walks, 1.18 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 11-10, 169.2 IP, 3.87 ERA, 159 Ks/43 walks, 1.25 WHIP

Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt would like to have had a better 2024 campaign, a campaign in which he’s slashed .246/.303/.414 with 21 home runs and 59 RBIs.

In September, Goldschmidt has played good baseball, slashing .313/.340/.521 with one home run and four RBIs along with seven doubles and a .861 OPS.

Goldschmidt has played worse at home, by evidence of his .664 OPS at Busch Stadium versus a .764 OPS on the road, but his recent play suggests a potentially strong series versus Pittsburgh over the next four days.

Pirates: Jared Triolo
Jared Triolo continues to get opportunities, and in September, he’s taken advantage of those opportunities at the plate, slashing .286/.375/.452 with two home runs and seven RBIs and eight runs scored.

His .622 OPS is a number he’d love to see increase, and his 2024 season doesn’t suggest his bat skills took a step forward, but rather a step back as all of his slash numbers decreased from 2023 to 2024, but a strong September has given the Pirates another weapon in the lineup.

Triolo is 1-for-7 versus St. Louis this season, and if his recent play is any indicator, he could have a strong series this week versus the Red Birds.

Cardinals: Masyn Winn
Masyn Winn has had a dreadful September, slashing .160/.192/.280 with four extra-base hits in 50 at-bats.

Winn is 4-for-18 in the last seven days and 11-for-37 versus Pittsburgh this season.

The young shortstop is much better at home, with a .789 OPS at home versus a .664 OPS on the road, and with his success versus Pittsburgh this year, he’ll look to end his cold spell in September.

Pirates: Bryan De La Cruz
Bryan De La Cruz has been a disappoint after being traded from Miami to Pittsburgh, hitting .205 in August and now .167 in September.

Over the past 30 days, De La Cruz is slashing .205/.222/.308, so offensively, his struggles have been well documented.

The long ball hasn’t come along with De La Cruz either upon his arrival to Pittsburgh, having just one home run as a Pittsburgh Pirate.

De La Cruz will look to have a strong ending to his 2024 campaign over the next two weeks, beginning with a series versus St. Louis that features four right-handed starters, which De La Cruz is hitting .213 against in 2024.

Key Injuries

Cardinals:
Pitcher Tink Hence is day-to-day, while catcher Wilson Contreras in on the 10-day IL and will likely miss the entirety of this series. Pitchers Drew Rom and Keynan Middleton are on the 60-day IL and likely out for the remainder of the 2024 season.

Pirates:
Oneil Cruz is listed as day-to-day, while Henry Davis is on the 10-day IL and could return for this series. Pitcher Ben Heller is on the 15-day IL, while all other injuries are out for the remainder of 2024.

Team Notes

The Pirates are coming off of a series loss to the Kansas City Royals, salvaging a win in the series with a victory on Sunday.

St. Louis comes back home to Busch Stadium after being swept by the Toronto Blue Jays, losing two of three by one run.

The Cardinals are 39-35 at home this season, while Pittsburgh is 33-38 on the road.

Pittsburgh is 24-13 in games in which they hit two or more home runs.

The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 games, while the Pirates are 6-4.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Andre The Cardinal

9-16-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Entering the final two weeks of the season, the Pirates face off against division-rival Cardinals and a starter who has had their number this season in Andre Pallante.

In his previous two outings against the Bucs this season, Pallante went 7 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball on July 4th and then posted a 6-inning, 3-hit, 1-run game on July 22nd so it’s been a struggle for the Pirates but hopefully they have figured out how to take down Andre this time around.

As we covered previously in both the first and second outings by Pallante, he isn’t a strikeout arm and mostly relies on avoiding barrels and generating ground balls for success. 

And he does each of those at an elite level, as his 3.8% barrel rate is lowest among pitchers with at least 400 plate appearances against and his 61.3% ground ball rate is behind only Framber Valdez for best in baseball.

He induced 25 ground balls combined in the previous two starts against the Pirates combined to 11 total fly balls so it will be critical for the Bucs to reverse course on this trend.

Pallante is throwing a mid-90s 4-seam about half the time while adding in a mid-90s sinker and high-80s slider with a low-80s knuckle-curve that he mostly mixes in against lefties. All of these offerings generate above average ground ball rates and his 4-seam surprisingly has a 72.4% mark with an average launch angle of -5.

There’s no two ways about it that the Pirates will see a heavy dosage of fastballs but they need to find ways to elevate these pitches to see success against Pallante. The slider has been more hittable but is used less often and the curve has been wrecking lefties in general.

Look for the heat and find ways to get the barrel to the ball to beat up Pallante.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Last Song

9-15-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Hoping to avoid a sweep by the rolling the Royals, the Pirates face off against Brady Singer in the final game of the series today while the 6’5 righty has a 9-10 record on the season but a 3.42 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 163.1 innings pitched.

His above-average frame helps to bolster his extension, which ranks in the 93rd percentile in baseball, while also generating ground-balls at an elite level, notching a 48.7% rate among balls put in play against Singer.

Looking at his pitch mix, Singer focuses a low-80s slider/low-90s sinker-heavy approach, combining to make up more than 82% of his total pitches and each resulting in < .270 batting average against and < .380 slugging percentage against. 

He also mixes in a low-90s 4-seamer, low-80s sweeper and a high-80s changeup, all of which have been hit at a 32%+ clip and slugged at 48% and higher. Though he doesn’t through them nearly as frequently, these are the pitches Bucs bats should be looking to hit.

Additionally, Singer has significant splits both lefty vs. righty and away vs. home, with opponents posting an OPS away from Kaufmann Stadium (.793) significantly higher than when he pitches in his home park (.632).

Look for elevated off-speed or hanging heaters today against Singer. Find some gaps in the outfield and salvage a rough series to end the homestand on a high note.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Wacha, Wacha

9-14-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After a rough start to the weekend series, the Pirates will look to rebound against former divisional foe in Michael Wacha.

Wacha has played Pittsburgh 18 times in his career with a 3.68 ERA through 95.1 innings – though that’s not including his performance in Game 4 of the 2013 NLDS where he held the Pirates to 1 run through 7.1 innings of work, critically preventing the Pirates from their first postseason series victory since 1992 – a streak that still persists.

He is experiencing a solid season in his first year in Royals blue, posting a 3.34 ERA and 12-7 record over 151 innings pitched out of the rotation with 130 strikeouts to just 40 walks.

Wacha had a bit of a rough start to his KC tenure, posting a 5.15 ERA through his first 8 games, but since May 14th has a 2.60 ERA over his 18 starts in that span.

Similar to his rotational counterpart from yesterday, Wacha’s best pitch is his changeup – which averages in the low-80s and is used nearly a third of the time and has an oBA of just .171.

He also offers a mid-90s fastball/sinker, high-80s cutter, mid-80s slider and mid-70s curve – though none has produced results close to his changeup, which has the third highest Run Value, per BaseballSavant.

Main Goal: Lay off the changeup. It has generated 71 of his 130 strikeouts and when put in play, has an average exit velocity of 81.4 MPH and is put on the ground at a 42.3% clip.

Look to attack fastballs and hanging breaking stuff. His 4-seam has an oBA/oSLG of .300/.483 and the expected values are even higher at .314 and .515, respectively.

Though he hasn’t faced the Pirates since 2019, that 2013 outing still cuts deep for Bucs fans. Fight fastballs and find redemption today. 

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Into The Marsh

9-13-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Kansas City Royals roll into town with October games on the horizon for the upstart midwestern squad. Fortunately, the Pirates will avoid Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo this weekend – both of whom are having solid seasons – but will face off against sophomore starter, Alec Marsh.

A 2019 Compensation round pick, Marsh steadily worked his way up through the Royals system, peaking at 16th overall in their system per MLB Pipeline last year. He enters play tonight with a 7-8 record, 4.66 ERA and 105 strikeouts through 116 innings pitched this year.

The underlying metrics don’t look super promising for Marsh as his xERA (4.93) and xBA (.266) are both above his actual rates of 4.66 and .244, respectively. He also has struggled to strikeout batters as his 21.6% K rate is the worst he has posted in his professional career.

He boasts a diverse pitch mix with a mid-90s 4-seam as his main offering, adding in a high-80s slider and low-90s sinker against right-handed hitters while switching to a low-80s curve and high-80s changeup against lefties and an occasional sweeper mixed in interchangeably.

While his slider, curve and sinker have been largely ineffective for Marsh, he has found success with his 4-seamer – which has a .303 xwOBA, best among his main offerings. Additionally, his changeup is his best graded pitch, posting a 1.8 Run Value/100, the 14th best mark among pitchers with minimum 50 plate appearances against.

Marsh will work the breaking/off-speed stuff down against opposing batters while filling up the top of the zone with fastballs. Bucs batters will want to hold back and try to get behind the hanging breaking balls that don’t break. 

Righties should target the slider, which can get hung up in the zone and has an oSLG of .458, while his curve has gotten hit hard by lefty hitters with a .559 oSLG and an average exit velocity of 91.9 MPH – the highest EV of any of his offerings.

Ambush soft stuff, be wary of the changeup and get an early lead in the game jagainst the dangerous Royals offense.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Slow & Steady Improvement Didn’t Produce the Fan Reaction this Team Assumed it Would

9-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates are 70-76 and with 16 games left we’re left with little on the goal list that doesn’t require a lowering of the bar.

The Pirates would need to go 13-3 to finish over .500, seems unlikely.

7-9 and they’ll best their record from 2023.

Either of which would have been considered less than the “competitive” team the front office portrayed coming our way in 2024.

So there’s no way of avoiding that the bar has been lowered.

Truth is, the Pirates almost always referenced the Arizona Diamondbacks 84-78 record from 2023 and eventual run to the World Series, we probably should have understood, that was the kind of “competitive” they were talking to, not looking up in the last week of the season knowing they’re in and coasting.

I don’t see them winning 14 of 16 on the way out to match that record, but I could see them bettering their own mark from last season and having enough room to think they can sell it as their favorite word, Better.

It’ll be true when they say it.

Their miscalculation was that fans would be more than happy with the team only managing a marginal improvement and taking it right in stride. They always make this mistake don’t they?

Some will of course. For some, 2024 was a wishing well season and they long since spent the quarter for the wish, never thinking they’d get it back or expecting their wish to be answered if they’re being honest.

Some wouldn’t have been satisfied with anything short of an NLCS, believing the team should have seen Skenes and Jones not only coming, but that they’d both perform the way they have, these fans believe the team not being in the conversation for the World Series the entire duration of Paul Skenes time in Pittsburgh is an utter failure.

All of that is fine. Fans are always going to see things how they need to, to suit their own needs.

Some call it “Copium”.

Like, I’m sure you could find a Browns fan who has some kind of positive spin on how the Deshaun Watson trade and sign has gone for their franchise. When you do, Copium.

Pretend it’s ok that Jack Suwinski fell off the face of the Earth or that Ke’Bryan Hayes is arguably the team’s biggest question heading into 2025 and you my friend are taking the drug.

Some will tell you “it was always going to be 2025”, and even have the receipts to prove it. That’s fine, but instead of Copium, you’re taking a healthy dose of acceptance.

You’re a happier person than those on Copium, but you’re also part of why this team thought one small step for the Bucs would hit as hard as one giant leap for Pirates fans.

I have no doubt they’ll improve on their record next year. Before free agency, trades, roster shuffling of any kind. Before I see what a single competitor in or out of the division does. I had little doubt this year too, long before I knew Jared Jones would make it out of camp or Paul Skenes would be more than just good looking. I also have yet to see if I was wrong this year, I mean, they won’t make my predicted record most likely of 84-78.

This is where reality always was.

This is an internal improvement first front office, executing an internal improvement plan with an eye toward sustained improvement. And so was Huntington, Littlefield, Cam Bonifay, I mean, in the modern baseball era, AKA post the Yankees Cable Deal of the Early 1990’s, General managers of the Pittsburgh Pirates under three different ownership groups have operated like this.

The difference is, at least so far, Cherington is the only one who didn’t feel the heat of taking too long and change the plan. None of them were all that strong at development which would seem to be the key to pulling this dream off.

I say it’s a miscalculation, and that’s being kind, because really, it’s just that they know you’ll be back. Year after year fans say they’re done and year after year they come back for more. Especially when the arrow is still legitimately pointing up. In other words, it’s easier to pretend you’re out in 2017 than right now. And they know it.

It probably will be seen as an improvement, but it won’t be seen as enough of one, to anyone. Including the team if we’re being honest, the difference is they’ll have to make sure you see it as positive, and you have no such obligation.

We’ll see what changes they make after the season. The things they say now don’t matter much, it’s what they do after the season that will really tell us their level of shame for what they put out in 2024.

Again, even a meager improvement won’t be seen as a tragedy, unless someone, namely Bob Nutting believes they fell short due to stupid decisions, or didn’t deliver what they assured him they’d deliver.

Either way, we’ll have to watch it play out. It seems insignificant, but they can find a way to sell a 1 game improvement, good luck selling improvement at all if they fall short.