Starter Spotlight: Love Herz

9-6-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Looking to build off momentum from a series-opening win last night, the Pirates will face southpaw DJ Herz tonight, who enters with a 2-7 record and 4.09 ERA through 70.1 MLB innings this season. But that is a bit deceiving as he’s improved over time and underlying numbers look pretty good.

Herz is coming off a strong month where he posted a 3.10 ERA in 6 appearances, striking out 35 in 29 innings with 14 walks and only one home run allowed. Can he continue that run of success against the Pirates?

Herz has an arsenal of a low-90s 4-seam, low-80s changeup and a mid-80s slider – with an infrequently used curve which he struggles to locate consistently.

The fastball has been his main strikeout pitch with 51 of his punch-outs coming against the heater but each of his pitches have a 25%+ whiff rate.

He’s a tricky lefty who doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact but also can have some bouts of wildness. Patience at the plate and staying on specific pitches will be key for success. Let him get behind in counts and force him to make mistakes. Minimize the attack zone and find ways to elevate more of his stuff.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Nationals (62-77) at Pirates (65-74)

9-5-24 – By Ethan Smith

Well, the Pittsburgh Pirates managed to defeat the Chicago Cubs for the series win over the past three days, but the last game will be the story after the Pirates were combined no-hit by Chicago, headlined by Shota Imanaga.

Now, they turn their sights to their longest remaining home stand of the 2024 season, a season of plenty of ups and downs, and the home stand begins when the Pirates face off with the Washington Nationals.

These two teams are separated by three games in the standings, with that speaking more on the Pirates collapse than on Washington’s play and expectations, and although we won’t see a matchup between the two in this series, it is nice that this time around, the top two selections from the 2023 MLB Draft are on the roster for both teams in Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews.

The Pirates won the series earlier this season in Washington, continuing their hot road start in March and April. Now, the Pirates and Nationals are out of playoff contention and both are trying to answer questions heading into 2025, so let’s take a look at the four-game set the Pirates have ahead of them.

9/5
Nationals – Jake Irvin (R) – 9-11, 161.0 IP, 4.08 ERA, 136 Ks/40 walks, 1.19 WHIP
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 6-7, 116.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 81 Ks/34 walks, 1.29 WHIP

9/6
Nationals – DJ Herz (L) – 2-7, 70.1 IP, 4.09 ERA, 88 Ks/26 walks, 1.27 WHIP
Pirates – Luis Ortiz (R) – 6-4, 113.0 IP, 3.19 ERA, 88 Ks/35 walks, 1.10 WHIP

9/7
Nationals – Mitchell Parker (L) – 7-9, 132.2 IP, 4.27 ERA, 117 Ks/35 walks, 1.27 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 11-9, 157.2 IP, 3.88 ERA, 145 Ks/42 walks, 1.27 WHIP

9/8
Nationals – Patrick Corbin (L) – 5-12, 153.0 IP, 5.41 ERA, 121 Ks/51 walks, 1.52 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) – 5-7, 101.1 IP, 3.91 ERA, 106 Ks/31 walks, 1.14 WHIP

Nationals: OF Jacob Young

Jacob Young has had a strong run as of late, slugging .510 over his last 15 games with one home run and seven RBIs.

Expand that to his last 30, and his play continues to look and be impressive, as he’s batting over .300 with six walks and five stolen bases, so he’s found a knack to get on base and wreck havoc as of late.

Young is coming off of a four hit series versus Miami, so he’s a player to watch in the Nats lineup that could continue to light the furnace in this four-game set.

Pirates: OF Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds has cooled off a bit since the calendar turned to August, but he’s still been impressive, hitting .296 with two home runs and five RBIs over the past seven days.

Although the home runs have taken a slight hit, Reynolds still has a .448 slugging over the past 15 days and continues to be one of, if not the biggest, offensive threat the Pirates possess in the lineup.

Watch for Reynolds to have a potentially big series here versus Washington.

Nationals: C Keibert Ruiz

Keiburt Ruiz has been a long-standing part of the core the Nats have been trying to build, but this season, and recently, he just hasn’t hit all that well.

Ruiz is batting .200 over the past 15 days and .154 over the past seven, hitting just two home runs in his last 55 at-bats. His .619 OPS on the season is well below his career OPS of .680, so there is a ton left to be desired about what Washington has seen from their starting catcher.

Ruiz, like Young, had a four hit series versus Miami, so we’ll see if he can get a hot streak going versus Pittsburgh.

Pirates: SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa became quite the household name since his arrival to Pittsburgh thanks to off-field comments about 2025, good ones mind you, and his play this season, but that play hasn’t been great lately.

IKF has a .186 batting average over the past 15 days and 11 strikeouts in his last 59 plate appearances, so he’s slowed down since his impressive pre-All Star campaign.

He had two hits versus the Cubs in that three-game series, and with IKF manning the leadoff spot more often than not, the Pirates hope he can turn it around before the season ends.

Key Injuries

For Washington, starters Trevor Williams and Cade Cavalli, both on the 60-day IL, have thrown the past two days in a bullpen and live session. Reliever Joan Adon and right fielder Alex Call were placed on the 15-day IL in late August, while Josiah Gray underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this season.

For Pittsburgh, Andrew McCutchen is “day-to-day” with a knee flare up. Joey Bart ran the bases in Chicago as he looks to return from the 10-day IL soon. Ke’Bryan Hayes is still being evaluated, while reliever Ben Heller and minor league starter Braxton Ashcraft were placed on the IL recently.

Things to Look For

For both of these teams, ending the season is about a big as how 2025 goes.

For Pittsburgh specifically, coming off the wrong side of a combined no-hitter, they have to come out of the gates firing versus a Washington team they should handle, and a winning home stand, a 10 gamer, would at the least give fans something to cheer for down the stretch after a sour second half.

If the bullpen, like it did in two games versus Chicago, can blank the Nationals late in games, then I like the Pirates chances to win this one, but with how sporadic the team has been lately, anything can happen in this four-game set.

Starter Spotlight: Irked By Irvin/Wake Up With Jake

9-5-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Emotions are mixed after a series win over the Cubs was overshadowed by being no-hit in the final game in Chicago. But the team heads back home to Pittsburgh and will welcome the upstart Nationals and a open up with Jake Irvin.

Irvin enters tonight’s game with a solid sophomore season, posting a 9-11 record and a 4.08 ERA with 136 strikeouts over 161 innings pitched but is coming off one of his worst outings on August 30th where he allowed 7 runs off 8 hits through 4.2 frames against the Cubs.

Mainly working with a low-90s 4-seamer/sinker and a low-80s curve, Irvin works in the zone and eats innings. He’s not going to strike out a lot of batters but his plus-extension works well to make his stuff play up a bit in a similar fashion to his mound opponent tonight, Bailey Falter.

While his sinker has been hit the hardest and most often, his curve and 4-seamer are both prone to get elevated and driven out of the park as his 14.6% HR/FB rate is 7th among all qualified starting pitchers.

Elevating the pitches will be key and a problem that has continued to plague this team, who rolled over on 36 ground-balls in the Cubs series but Irvin has allowed 26 home runs on the season which even lofty confines of PNC Park may struggle to contain.

Additionally, despite his adequate overall numbers, he has struggled consistently when playing at night – which he will today – as he has a 5.01 ERA through 82.2 innings playing under the lights compared to a 3.10 mark over 78.1 frames in sunlight.

Look for something to elevate and get some hits in the air. Warm weather expected today for the Bucs so the hot air will help the ball fly. 

Let’s Go Bucs!

A Simple Pirates Question with a Not So Simple Answer

9-3-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

As plainly as I can put it…

Are the Pirates as a franchise better off now than they were in 2019?

It’s ironic we’ll be hearing questions like that for the next two months about a subject unrelated, but sometimes it really is the core of what needs addressed.

It’s one thing to say they aren’t where you want them to be at this point, and another entirely to claim they’ve utterly failed.

The whole shebang too, not only are they better now than they were than, but are they in position to better what they could have built that 2019 team into.

To do that, I’m going to have to break this into categories so we can really break it down and make a fair evaluation possible. For some of you this is going to be hard, it’ll require accepting truths that aren’t comfortable and if you’re a person who doesn’t like to do so, critiquing harshly something you’ve preferred to see through rose colored glasses.

The Record

I wish it was this simple.

The record in 2019, the season that forced Bob Nutting to fire his friend and trusted liaison to MLB and Team President Frank Coonelly, Neil Huntington and of course his on field staff was 69-93.

A winning percentage of .426, and it happened in a year when the club felt they still had the components to win. This was the end of a 4 year playoff drought that started out being referred to as a Bridge Year in 2017.

This is the narrative that has fans rightly say “They’ve been rebuilding for 10 years”.

They have, the previous regime simply wouldn’t admit it or go as deep as they needed to, always feeling like they were a good performance or lucky acquisition away from getting back into the dance.

Since then, the team has truly been in a rebuild.

Winning percentages went from that .426, to .317 in 2020, .377 in 2021, .383 in 2022, .469 last year and this year as we speak they’re 65-73, a .471 winning percentage, a story we’re obviously still watching unfold.

A slow and steady increase in success, but not the complete metamorphosis fans wanted to see.

Even a little money could have made this incline steeper, but it’s headed in the right direction. This has all led to finishing one time out of the basement in 4th place in the NL Central.

The Starting Infield

In 2020: (Opening Day)
Catchers: Jacob Stallings, John Ryan Murphy
First Base: Josh Bell
Second Base: Adam Frazier
Short Stop: Kevin Newman
Third Base: Colin Moran

In 2024: (Currently)
Catchers: Joey Bart (IL), Henry Davis
First Base: Rowdy Tellez
Second Base: Nick Gonzales
Short Stop: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Third Base: Ke’Bryan Hayes (IL)

I wish I could do a statistical comparison, but no matter how you try to slice it, a 60 game season with constant ins and outs spawned by COVID and the fear of it simply can’t be compared in a fair way.

I could extrapolate out how the numbers might have looked after another 102 games but honestly, it’s probably about as fair as taking the first 60 games of this season and doing the same, think about how that would effect Rowdy Tellez alone.

Obviously this doesn’t account for Ke’Bryan Hayes joining the team in 2020 or being injured and off the roster currently. Obviously it isn’t genuine to look at this infield and pretend Oneil Cruz wasn’t the biggest part of it for the vast majority of this season.

All that said, you adjust for time and how players look today, I have a hard time saying they aren’t better off.

The other thing to consider here is they now have 2 starters in this group that aren’t sure to be here into the future. So even if Rowdy Tellez and IKF are upgrades, they can’t be seen as having lasting power.

The Starting Outfield

In 2020: (Opening Day)
Bryan Reynolds, Jarrod Dyson, Gregory Polanco

In 2024: (Currently)
Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Bryan De La Cruz

There is little denying, it’s better today, but I’ll be really honest, it’s only been a couple weeks now that I could say that and Cruz hasn’t had time to show us defensively how we should feel quite yet. Overall though, very hard to say it’s not stronger.

We’ve watched 5 years of baseball and come out of it with 1 firm answer in the outfield. Potentially 2, but 1 that we can truly say is a for sure answer.

They’ve had some stutter starts. Jack Suwinski has done some great things, and he’s also looked like he doesn’t belong in the Bigs. They’ve had Ben Gamel look acceptable for a time, Connor Joe has at times looked good. Bryan De La Cruz has been an average MLB player, just not since being acquired by the Pirates.

Point is, it’s better, but marginally and with quite a bit of wait and see still baked in up to and including Bryan Reynolds potentially not being a starting level defender on top.

The Oneil Cruz move to CF has possibly in an artificial way created an overall trend up in the outfield, but more accurately, it’s potentially masked an extremely disappointing trajectory of this position group and created a weaker infield setup.

The Starting Rotation

In 2020: (Opening Day)
Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, Derek Holland, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl

In 2024: (Currently)
Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Domingo German

I went 6 deep because, well, largely that’s what the Pirates have done this year, a trend I don’t expect to continue into 2025.

It’s clearly in a much better place. 4 guys from the 2020 rotation aren’t even pitching anymore in MLB.

So far in 2024 the Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.82, and that includes everyone who’s started, even Josh Fleming and Jake Woodford. In 2020 the Bucs put up a 4.74 ERA, again in 60 games and 283 innings pitched, that’s barely a full season for 1 starter 35-40 years ago.

Better, yes, but also young with lots of room for progression or of course, regression. Still, arrow up.

The Bullpen

In 2020: (Opening Day)
Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez, Michael Feliz, Nick Burdi, Chris Stratton, Clay Holmes, Dovydas Neverauskas, Robbie Erlin, Nik Turley, JT Brubaker
Keep in mind, this was a perpetually expanded roster due to COVID.

In 2024: (Currently)
Aroldis Chapman, David Bednar, Kyle Nicolas, Dennis Santana, Carmen Mlodzinski, Jalen Beeks, Colin Holderman, Ryan Borucki, and if you want, Domingo German could probably fit here too.

In 2020 the bullpen put up an ERA of 4.62, a historically bad bullpen that gratefully only had to handle 59 games.

This year so far, 4.57. Awful.

I look at the names and how much control the Pirates have of some of these guys, and the big arms and I want to feel good about where it’s headed, but the numbers don’t lie. If 2020 was historically bad, and it was, you’d have to agree 2024 has been worse.

So, Are the Pirates Better Off Now than in 2020?

I mean, yeah.

Truthfully, I think they’re just about back to where they were roster wise in 2017 or 2018, with more young players that should stick and more prospects coming than they had back then.

The hope heading into 2025 has to be that the starting rotation matures and flourishes with fewer restrictions to their innings availability. The bullpen has to rebound and the track record and pedigree of many of those members makes me feel it’s at least plausible plus they should have some overflow form the rotation.

The offense has not performed, and even as they have players all over the diamond locked in, they’ll need more from a whole lot of them.

It’s improved, but it could be better if they spent more on the way here if only because they’d have hopefully had more to trade along the way. Improving those returns could have put them in a better spot than they currently are, not that today is a nightmare, but had they done so, solid chance 2024 was more than wishful thinking.

There are 2 players who remain from the 2020 opening day roster and almost an entire coaching staff.

Overall, the progress they’ve made in this time is bare minimum. I think they should be farther along by now, but that doesn’t rule out getting the job done for me moving into the next few seasons.

I’d also remind that back in 2020 the club had one big contracted player named Gregory Polanco, today they have Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Mitch Keller, backed by a host of youngsters who have 3 or 5 years of team control remaining and more coming.

Feels like they’re going to need a really solid move or two in order to kick this thing over the edge a bit, but they’re very much so in a better place than they were.

I remain positive, you certainly don’t have to. I just still think I still see the momentum heading in the right direction and I really trust the talent that is emerging even if there isn’t enough of it to believe it could ever come entirely from within.

The Pirates have a ton of decision-making with “fringe” players this offseason

9-4-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHan on X

The 2024 season is not yet over, but with it being September, and with the Pittsburgh Pirates effectively out of a playoff spot at this point after a putrid August, questions begin to arise about how the roster will shake out heading into next season.

If you’ve listened to me discuss this lightly on Locked On Pirates, I have suggested the product you see on the field now will largely be the same next season, with the veteran additions outside of Andrew McCutchen all but gone and arguments to be made on Aroldis Chapman and Rowdy Tellez.

On top of that though, the Pirates have more talent on the way in 2025 in the form of prospects, which seems to be the backbone of every offseason and Spring Training, as it should be, and well, when you want to get those guys here in Pittsburgh, decisions have to be made on the roster elsewhere to make it all fit.

As much as professional baseball teams wish the 40-man roster was much, much bigger, it isn’t, it’s exactly what it says it is and performs the action it is intended to, to get guys that are contributing, or close to contributing, to the big league roster.

Those aforementioned decisions will of course come with players already on the roster, and although it may seem as simple as plugging “Player A” in and slotting “Player B” out, it just doesn’t work that way, there are a ton of factors that come into play, and for the “fringe” players on the Pirates 40-man roster, outlining what they’ve done to this point usually paints a clear picture as to their status heading into 2025, so let’s take a look at those players shall we?

Liover Peguero

I want to start here with Liover Peguero, because of all of these players, he arguably intrigues me the most.

If you read Gary’s weekly 5-Thoughts @ 5, you’d notice he discusses Peguero in that piece, and he had this to say about Peguero and his status right now.

At 23 years old, Peguero isn’t old, but he’s been on the 40-man for 3 years now, a player rarely gets a 4th without impacting MLB.

He’s had a rather pedestrian AAA season. -0.4 WAR on the season to be specific, but the thing is, he’s been in professional baseball long enough that he really should be dominating his level, not just existing.

I don’t think there’s much to learn about Jared Triolo right now, or Isiah Kiner-Falefa at this point, so if I’m the Pirates, I use this time to get Peguero up here, plop him at short, slide IKF to third and let the last month here guide me as to whether keeping Peggy on the 40-man is smart.

He is the next “qualified” SS in the pipeline, and again, if I’m them, I want to see it, and see it now.

Gary is spot on with this for a couple of reasons.

For starters, you rarely see a player on the 40-man roster this long without them making a considerable impact of some kind on the MLB roster. It may seem like ages ago, but Peguero was a large part of the strong second half the Pirates had in 2023, posting a .654 OPS in 198 at-bats with seven home runs and 26 RBIs.

Of course, those aren’t considerably good numbers by any stretch of the imagination, but at the least, they were intriguing, especially the pop we were seeing out of Peguero’s bat, but in 2024, he hasn’t been on the roster at all, taking a back seat to Oneil Cruz, Alika Williams, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and later on Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Peguero is 23, so he still has his career all the way in front of him, and with where the Pirates stand currently, it is a wonder as to why the Pirates haven’t decided to get a strong look at him in the final month of the season, seeing as a decision has to be made on him eventually.

You’d expect that Nick Gonzales and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will man the middle infield again when 2025 arrives, but remember when I said plenty of factors come into play? Well, and just speculating here, what if Ke’Bryan Hayes can never seriously man the third base position for a full season with his back problems? What happens if IKF or Gonzales goes down with a lengthy injury?

These are questions you have to ask, and as mentioned before, I think it would be malpractice not to get at least a small sample size of what Peguero can do at the MLB level in 2024 before heading into Spring next season, and that’s if Peguero isn’t already gone by that point.

You’ll notice Peguero, unlike the rest of the players on this list, has just never gotten a real, lengthy shot outside of 2023, and for the Pirates, I’d want some hard statistical evidence before making a decision on a guy who is likely your closest option to having a shortstop with Oneil Cruz’s move to center field.

Watch how the Pirates handle Peguero closely this offseason. It could go a number of ways, he could be a trade piece to fill a void on the roster, or he could make his way here next year as a quality bench bat, potentially. Either way, he is about as intriguing as anyone in the “fringe” category.

Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo, 26, has gotten plenty of opportunities on the big league roster the past two seasons, mainly due to injuries to Ke’Bryan Hayes, and in 2023, on the surface, Triolo was staking himself as a pretty good two-way player.

His .786 OPS in 2023 came alongside just three home runs, so power will never truly be apart of Triolo’s game, although he has seven so far in 2024.

We know Triolo has the glove to play any infield position, especially third base, seeing as he was a Minor League Gold Glove award winner before his arrival to the MLB roster, and his defense will never be a question, its the offense that becomes a worry.

All of Triolo’s numbers have fallen considerably offensively in 2024, as evidence to his .206/.294/.305/.599 slash. I mentioned the home runs went up, but when you consider he’s had 321 at-bats in 2024 versus 181 in 2023, you’d expect that number to rise, even with the limited power potential.

I touched on the Hayes injury twice already, and that’s where Triolo is a tough decision to make as far as his standing on the roster. On one hand, he isn’t exactly the best option to have off the bench or as a third base replacement for Hayes offensively, but his defensive ability is undeniable, especially the versatility of said defense, but is the defense enough to keep Triolo on the roster?

Termarr Johnson isn’t far off from being a contributor to this team, especially around this time in 2025, while Liover Peguero will continue to knock on the doorstep and eventually Tsung-Che Cheng and Nick Yorke could be potential pieces as well.

Of those guys mentioned, Peguero and Cheng are already on the 40-man roster, while Johnson and Yorke will be eventually, with Yorke coming sooner, so at some point, the spots in the infield begin to shrink, and if the hitting doesn’t improve for Triolo, it’s hard to find a spot for him.

It may not be an immediate dismissal for Triolo, but it’s a situation to monitor for sure with what’s coming down the pipe soon.

Ji-Hwan Bae

When Oneil Cruz made the defensive move from shortstop to center field, I think it didn’t effect anybody more than Ji-Hwan Bae, and here’s why.

One, Bae isn’t good enough in the infield defensively, and even if he was, his bat hasn’t proven to be good enough at the MLB level to unseat Gonzales, IKF, Triolo, Hayes or any of the other players I mentioned already in the infield that are already on the 40-man.

Secondly, and I mentioned it like two lines ago, Bae just hasn’t hit here. In 2024, Bae has a .463 OPS in 74 at-bats. In 2023, in 334 at-bats, his OPS was a .607, and he was getting on-base, which of course made him more dangerous seeing as his best ability is his speed, but without getting on-base, he offers next to nothing in that department.

You then consider what happens in the outfield moving forward, and the Pirates will likely roll out Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and a platoon of Bryan De La Cruz and Jack Suwinski in right field. Add that Billy Cook will need to be added to the 40-man, as well as Nick Yorke, who can also play the outfield, and it becomes increasingly difficult to find a place for Bae to play.

Could Bae provide depth due to injury or pure need? Of course, but with the plethora of options coming up soon, the Pirates will have that elsewhere. Could Bae be a serviceable MLB player? I don’t know, but what I can confidently say is that another team may take a flier on him and see if they can ignite his play at the level that it matters.

Bae is sitting at 1.013 Service Time, so the clock continues to tick for him, and with his defense being a liability and his bat not proving to live up to its AAA potential, I just find it hard for the Pirates to find a roster spot for pinch-runner when they have speed, and well, better hitters elsewhere.

Alika Williams

Alika Williams, much like Jared Triolo, is intriguing, because his defense at the shortstop cannot be denied, but the bat is just never going to amount to anything substantial.

Williams currently has a .208/.238/.286/.524 slash in 2024 and his career OPS sits at .521, so the bat is by no means the best part of his game as mentioned before.

Williams could offer valuable defensive depth in the system if needed, but keeping that on the 40-man roster at this point wouldn’t make much sense in favor of guys like Cooke and Yorke who have potential and need to be added.

I’d say Williams is likely a roster casualty.

Connor Joe

I want to end with Connor Joe here.

Joe has a strong start to the 2024 campaign, taking over the first base position due to the early struggles of Rowdy Tellez, who eventually came along to become a solid option there, but Joe’s play eventually took a downward spiral, as evidence to his below-.200 batting averages in June and August.

Joe is a versatile defender, having the ability to slot into a corner outfield spot along with first base, something that is a commodity to teams nowadays.

On top of that, Joe is massively controllable, as he doesn’t reach ARB-4 until 2027 and free agency until 2028. Problem is, he is already 32 years old and may have his baseball behind him already.

Joe was signed on with the Pirates $2.125 million this season to avoid arbitration, and if he comes back in 2025, which in my opinion, he likely will, you’ll likely see the Pirates find common ground with a number in that range with Joe, but I don’t consider him safe either.

The Pirates will likely look to upgrade the first base position in some way in the offseason, which is it’s own battle to fight with what may be available, and with the addition of Bryan De La Cruz to the outfield, as well as Oneil Cruz, Joe’s spot become limited, and keeping a 33-year old with no defensive position on the roster can become a tough decision, especially when the offense isn’t where you’d like it to be, and if your name isn’t Andrew McCutchen.

More than likely, Connor Joe will be back in 2025, but I won’t 100-percent say he will be either.

The Others

Billy McKinney – McKinney is already 30 and hasn’t shown much to prove deserving of a long-term 40-man roster spot, and if favor of Nick Yorke and Billy Cook, I am taking the young upside.

Joshua Palacios – See Billy McKinney, expect Palacios is 29.

Jason Delay – With Endy Rodriguez returning next season and Henry Davis and Joey Bart manning the catching duties in 2025, Delay has continued to be buried in the minors. He could be back as catching depth, but he’s someone to watch as a 40-man roster casualty.

The free agents- 40-man spots will open once Yasmani Grandal, Michael A. Taylor, Rowdy Tellez, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew McCutchen hit free agency this winter. McCutchen will be back, and the jury is out as to what the Pirates think as far as bringing back Chapman and Tellez, but Grandal and Taylor are as good as gone, opening up two spots on the roster.

Starter Spotlight: Shutdown Shota

9-4-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With a potential payback sweep on the line, the Pirates send out Domingo Germán to start off against rookie Japanese southpaw, Shota Imanaga.

This is Imanaga’s second game against the Pirates this season after pitching 7 shutout frames on May 18th with 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7.

Imanaga started the season hot and on everyone’s radar but following a lackluster June where he had a 5.67 ERA over 27 innings, has fallen out of favor in the national media (for the most part). 

He is, however, somehow is putting up an underrated rookie showing despite ranking 16th in fWAR among NL starting pitchers (2.7) and 10th ERA for those with at least 100 innings pitched.

Entering today’s game, Imanaga has an 11-3 record to go with his sparkling 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 148 strikeouts to just 23 walks but the problem for the Korean southpaw has been the long-ball – an issue which plagued him in his KBO career as well.

Among NL starting pitchers, Imanaga has allowed the 8th most home runs (23) and has the 4th highest HR/9 among qualified pitchers in the Senior Circuit.

Looking at his pitch mix, Imanaga offers a mostly 2-pitch mix, leaning on a low-90s 4-seam up in the zone with a low-80s splitter dropping down against hitters, as those two offerings encompass nearly 85% of his total pitches this season.

He’ll add in some other pitches, mostly utilizing the low-80s sweeper down and in against left-handed hitters but primarily works off the fastball/splitter repertoire.

While opposing hitters have a near identical batting average against both of his main pitches, the clear difference comes in the power aspect as the fastball has an average exit velocity of nearly 7 MPH more than the splitter and the slugging – both actual and expected – is more than 100 points higher with 18 of his home runs allowed coming against the heater.

The old adage of “If it’s high, let it fly” should play here today. Shota can get too hung up on spotting the fastball, and that will be especially prevalent if Bucs batters can lay off the splitters dropping under the zone.

Attack the heat. Spit on the splitter. Sweep the Cubbies.

Let’s Go Bucs!

If Andrew McCutchen Wants to Play in 2025, Someone Will Happily Take Him

9-3-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Here’s the thing with Andrew McCutchen, from the moment the Pirates decided to bring him back to Pittsburgh, this story was always going to end either with Andrew retiring as a Pittsburgh Pirate or a messy divorce with a player who still thinks he has game left to give.

So, I say this partially for effect.

If Andrew McCutchen wants to play in 2025, Bob Nutting won’t allow it to be anywhere but Pittsburgh.

I know, Bob doing something many of you like, probably doesn’t add up, but it’s true. He’s the reason he came back, he’s the reason he returned for 2024, and he’ll be the reason he returns again, likely for the same 5 million dollar price tag he’s taken each of the last two.

Fans, including me, have enjoyed having him back, but we’ve also all been waiting for when he’d call it quits. His inability to play in the field and the near constant worry that is keeping a 37 year old body in shape enough to hit and run along with several players that don’t have a perfect fit in the field have created a situation where everyone is seemingly looking for an escape route.

Maybe we should be looking at what he’s actually doing though, instead of what he’s mythologically blocking.

37 years old, 450 plate appearances, 18 homeruns and a .758 OPS.

It’s not that the Pirates can’t replace this production, it’s more that with 80 fewer at bats, Cutch is tied for 2nd on the team with Oneil Cruz and those 18 homers.

That’s not something I think is fair to expect him to replicate, but he’ll come a lot closer to it for 5 Million bucks than anyone I can think of on the Free Agent market. You know, and he’ll do the whole living legend thing too.

There are concerns.

  • He’ll be 38 and every year the end of the race gets closer. We could be watching it right now and not even know it.
  • The Bucs have cause to want to use the DH spot to rest other players, or mask their defense
  • Should the Pirates stick with current coaching, there has to be some question that they have the ability to sense this isn’t a player to lead off games or hit cleanup anymore.

All that said, He’s still been a productive player. It would be one thing if they had 7 or 8 guys I felt were sure bets to out hit him, but when this club is routinely popping out 3 or 4 spots in a lineup that feature what probably don’t constitute league average players, good luck selling me they can’t use an old guy who’s popping close to 20 dingers.

I’m all done pretending he can play the field even a little though. If you want him to be productive at the plate, let that dream go. His body won’t allow it, the mind is willing but the body is incapable. I mean, we’re to the point where scoring from first base or trying to leg out a triple might be enough to net him a day or two on the pine.

Bottom line, someone will take him, and it really should be the Pirates.

5-Up, 5-Down: August Edition

9-3-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHan on X

August was most surely a month to forget for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Entering August, expectations were the highest they’d been in years, as the Pirates added at the deadline with the additions of Bryan De La Cruz, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and others, and although they weren’t secured into a playoff spot at the time, it appeared they had the horses to fight for one.

Now, as we enter the full month of September, the Pirates are well below .500 after a 7-18 month of August that also featured a ten-game losing streak, effectively ending chance they’d play postseason baseball for the first time since 2015.

There were plenty of downs, hence the record and where the Pirates sit today, but there were some positives to take away from August as well, so lets take a look at who was up, and who was down, in the month of August.

Who was up??

Oneil Cruz

Many Pittsburgh fans have been waiting for Oneil Cruz to truly have his breakout, especially considering Cruz is one of the most electric baseball players in the sport when he’s on.

He also became the center of attention when the Pirates announced he’d find a new defensive home in center field after playing shortstop since his arrival with the Pirates in 2022, but when just focusing on his offense, Cruz was dominant in the month of August.

Cruz has his best month of 2024 in August, posting a .389/.449/.537/.986 slash, all highs per month in ’24, and although the long ball wasn’t a large part of his success at the plate with just one homer in the month of August, he recorded 14 RBIs along with those numbers.

What was even more impressive was his ability to find pitches he wanted and force opposing pitchers into the zone to face him, as Cruz walked 10 times in August, his only double-digit walk total in a month this year.

His strikeout total of 25 was tied for his lowest mark in a full month on the season as well, so not only was Cruz finding success when hitting the baseball, but he was also finding success getting on-base very, very often.

Cruz has also improved mightily versus left-handed pitching this year, a skill in his game that was once so bad that the Pirates would have to remove him from facing southpaws. His lefty split sits at .236/.264/.431/.695 with five homers, so not only has Cruz become a solid, consistent bat versus righties, but teams can’t immediately insert a left-hander against him as a guaranteed out anymore.

His lone homer is a little worrisome, as you’d like Cruz’s power to continue to be apart of his game, but his on-base ability is almost just as important, seeing as 10 of his 20 stolen bases on the season came in August, so when Cruz gets on-base, its a good thing for the Pirates and well, Cruz himself.

The hope is that Cruz’s play in August bleeds into September and even into 2025, and yes, the defensive position change will be a large part of Cruz’s story, but if he continues to hit, it’ll be a near afterthought.

Joey Bart

Joey Bart, unquestioned, has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 campaign for the Pirates.

Bart, who was acquired from San Francisco, took over the catching position after Henry Davis was sent down to AAA amidst his struggles earlier this year, has been a solid addition offensively for Pittsburgh, as his OPS before his injury was a .844, an impressive number that warrants attention.

Before his injury in August, Bart was in the middle of another solid month, posting a .288/.342/.534/.876 slash with five home runs and 15 RBIs, both season highs for monthly totals.

Bart was also posting solid numbers post-All Star break, as his .881 OPS was among the best on the roster after the mid-Summer classic.

The argument that Bart not only stepped into the starting catching role, but earned it, even going into next season, isn’t much of an argument anymore with the afformentioned play of Davis, Grandal not likely being with the team next season and Endy Rodriguez and his status as far as positioning unknown making said decision a much easier one.

Bart will likely see limited action for the remainder of 2024, but once again, he’s been a welcome addition to the Pirates lineup and should be next season as well.

Dennis Santana

Dennis Santana makes his 5-Up, 5-Down debut after a strong month of August, one that was a relatively quiet one amidst the struggles the bullpen had, more on that later.

By no means am I suggesting Santana was elite, but with a unit, collectively, that stunk, Santana was one of the better options the Pirates could turn to, posting a 2.40 ERA in 15.0 IP in August.

Even Santana’s July was quietly impressive, as evidence to his 0.66 ERA in 10 appearances, so Santana has quickly become a steady, consistent option out of the Pirates bullpen.

Santana has not allowed an earned run over his past seven appearances, so one hopes that play can translate over to September.

Jalen Beeks

Call me a psycho for putting two relievers in the “up” category in this piece, but like Santana, Jalen Beeks, one of the Pirates trade deadline additions, quietly had a strong month of August.

Beeks, a left-hander, ended August with a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 IP, and as a left-handed specialist, he’s had an impressive season versus left-handed hitters, allowing just a .177 opponent batting average on the season versus lefties.

His 1.98 ERA post-All Star break would suggest the Pirates found something in Beeks, although his usage can be limited to left-handers at times. Despite that, Beeks has been able to give the Pirates valuable time out of the bullpen, and with what’s transpired with that unit this year, what more could you ask for?

Bryan Reynolds

Relative to how 2024 has went for Bryan Reynolds, August was a quiet month for B-Rey.

Reynolds hit north of .300 in June and July, a large part of why he received an All-Star nod this year, but August was still impressive, as Reynolds ended the month with a .274/.342/.396/.738 slash, numbers you’d otherwise not shy away from saying are impressive, but compared to what he’s done this season, they were “less productive”.

Reynolds post-All Star numbers are slightly down from his pre-All Star numbers, but with everything considered, he is still one of the best offensive options the Pirates have, and mind you, he will continue to be, and despite a “down” month, he sticks in the “up” category.

Who’s Down?

David Bednar

After mentioning Santana and Beeks having good months, but also mentioning that the bullpen as a unit has a terrible month, you had to expect Bednar in the “down” category.

Bednar, who has been the closer since arriving in Pittsburgh in 2021, just hasn’t been himself this year, posting a 6.19 ERA with six blown saves.

Things went from bad to worse for the Renegade in August, as evidence to his 10.97 ERA in 11 appearances.

His struggles have been a topic of conversation all year, seeing as the Pirates have positioned themselves in plenty of winnable ballgames, and Bednar’s struggles not only in August, but throughout the season, had him removed from the closing role just as August was wrapping up.

It will be intriguing to see how the Pirates utilize Bednar for the remainder of the season, but at this point, he just has to get out of 2024 healthy and reset in 2025.

Bryan De La Cruz

Trade deadline additions usually work in one of two ways, they either propel a team into the playoff conversation or, they don’t pan out immediately and fail to offer what they were brought in for, and with Bryan De La Cruz, so far, it’s been the latter.

De La Cruz was acquired from the Miami Marlins at the deadline in hopes that he would solidify right field and become a strong second outfield bat behind Bryan Reynolds, but that just hasn’t happened.

In August, De La Cruz posted a .205/.228/.284/.512 slash with just one home run and 12 runs batted in, numbers the Pirates weren’t hoping for in the slightest.

The right-handed outfielder has always seemed to be a streaky player, as evidence to his stats being much better in April and July than in the other months, so one would hope he catches some sort of fire before season’s end, especially considering he’ll be in the outfield mix heading into next season and beyond.

For now, the move hasn’t benefitted the Pirates in the way they wanted, but it can have long-term effects that end up becoming positive ones.

Jared Triolo

After Ke’Bryan Hayes was placed on the IL, something that was long overdue, Jared Triolo once again took over third base duties, and much like some of the other young, fringe players, this may be his last ride.

There is no doubt that Triolo can man any position he plays defensively, seeing as he was a Minor League Gold Glove award winner before his arrival to the bigs, but his advanced metrics last season, even with the impressive statistics, suggested his bat to ball skills leave a ton to be desired, and we’ve seen that to be the case this year.

Triolo’s .592 OPS is abysmal, and although he had a strong ending of August, it just wasn’t enough to warrant anything to be overly excited about. Triolo ended the month with a .208/.354/.377/.731 slash with two homers and eight RBIs, and he did find a way to record his highest monthly OPS total of the season with a .731 clip.

I am not suggesting Triolo as a roster casualty just yet, but he has a ton to prove and has gotten ample opportunities to do so, and if August, and well, 2024, is any indication, he may end up finding a new home sooner rather than later with looming roster decisions this winter.

Ji-Hwan Bae

Much like Triolo, Bae appears to be hitting his breaking point on the roster, and also, much like Triolo, he’s gotten plenty of opportunities.

Bae played last versus Chicago on August 26th before being optioned to AAA-Indianapolis, and he didn’t leave much to cheer about either in August, as his .190/.244/.238/.482 slash is nothing to write home about.

On top of that, the poor on-base percentage seriously limits what Bae can do, seeing as his best ability is his speed, but that speed cannot be utilized unless he gets on base.

Now with Oneil Cruz moving to center field, it becomes harder to find a place for Bae to play defensively, seeing as the middle infield, which is another point of concern in his game, is cluttered with talent since the acquisition of Isiah-Kiner Falefa.

Bae has been dominant at times in AAA, it just hasn’t translated to the bigs, and its a wonder if we’ll see the speedster much longer with, once again, looming roster decisions this winter.

Mitch Keller

You never want to have to talk down about one of the best pitchers on the staff, but in the case of Mitch Keller, August was a month to forget for him.

Keller, who had an argument to be an All-Star this season, didn’t have that same All-Star caliber stuff in August, posting a 6.75 ERA in his five starts.

That number inflates considerably when you take into account that 15 of his 18 earned runs came in two starts versus San Diego and Los Angeles, but Keller, who has been one of the most steady pitching options in baseball since the beginning of last season, only managed to throw more than five innings in one start in August, a number we haven’t seen from him in some time.

The strikeouts were also down for Keller in August, but he’s been to the lowest point of the mountain and climbs back up every time, so although he’s in the “down” category, there’s no worry of his consistency heading into September in 2025.

Starter Spotlight: Change Up Approach Against Hendricks

9-3-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

From Whiskey to Gin, the Pirates trade out facing Jameson Taillon yesterday for Kyle Hendricks today, whom they faced last week with an offensive outburst as they notched 6 runs off 8 hits over just 1.2 innings during that previous outing. 

If the Pirates want to repeat that production, they’ll need to get more lift on the ball than they’ve produced against the past two starters faced where they put the ball on the ground 23 times over 13.2 combined innings facing Taillon and Guardians starting pitcher Alex Cobb.

Changeup in green

Despite the hot bats against Hendricks last time, he still generated 10 swings-and-misses in 70 pitches with most of that courtesy of his changeup and it’s 54% whiff rate.

He was able to work the changeup on the corners and that’s the only pitch he has been able to consistently locate and avoid barrels against this season with the lowest xBA (.251) and xSLG (.386) among his offerings.

If hitters can waste the changeups on the edges and lay off the ones out of the zone, they can force Hendricks to lean more on his sinker, which opponents are batting .339 against and slugging .526. 

Stay on the changeup to force Hendricks to change up his approach. Get ahead early and hold the lead this time around.

Let’s Go Bucs 

If the Pirates Move On from Derek Shelton, Who Might Be a Candidate?

9-2-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Derek Shelton’s seat is mighty warm, as it should be, and who he’s replaced with is hardly as front and center as deciding to move on in the first place.

So, I thought, lets have some fun and before we see new candidates enter the pool after the end of the season sends waves of pink slips around the league. Let’s look at some guys who might be a good fit in a way too early look at the scene.

1. Terry Francona

Currently: Retired

Yeah, yeah, local connection, but he has a track record for success. Make no mistake, Terry is baseball royalty. He’s managed 3 teams, won 2 World Series Titles, 3 Time AL Manager of the year with a career record of 1,950–1,672.

Terry has experience with small market baseball and his teams always were greater than the sum of their parts, but he retired for medical reasons. There are rumors he might be interested in jumping back in like Bruce Bochy did in Texas, but I’d imagine he’d really have to believe in the direction.

This would be a big get, one that the baseball world would notice. One that I’d have to imagine would have instant clubhouse impact too.

2. David Ross

Currently: Unemployed

The Cubs kinda did David dirty. There was a clamoring to move on in Chicago after Ross had produced a 262–284 in his 4 seasons as Cubs Skipper, and the ownership group voiced support for retaining him for 2024.

Abruptly, they changed course in November, instead hiring Craig Counsell leaving Ross out in the wind. He turned down a few bench coach roles, including with the Yankees but remains a free agent.

You could argue he didn’t do enough with those Cubs teams, but they were retooling and moving on from many of the stars who won them the series in 2016.

No matter how you feel, Ross is a name that will be out there.

3. Gabe Kapler

Currently: Miami Marlins Assistant General Manager

After 6 seasons coaching the Phillies and Giants amassing a 456–411 record along with NL Manager of the year in 2021 the Giants moved on from Kapler and he went back to his roots, in an MLB club’s front office.

After his playing days and some TV work he became the LA Dodgers Director of Player Development.

His development background as well as understanding of MLB front offices would probably make him a threat in an organization that tends to want separation of powers and value it more than communication and collaborative work.

That said, Kapler is an expert at understanding and implementing analytics into the game and he’s won games without a huge payroll.

Now, does he want to dip his toe back into coaching or keep trying to help resurrect the Marlins?

4. Rodney Linares

Currently: Bench Coach Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays hired Rodney the Dominican-American product who got his coaching start in Houston’s system back in 2018 to be their 3rd base coach, then in 2022 he was promoted to Bench Coach to replace Matt Quatraro who moved on to manage the Kansas City Royals.

Linares also managed the Dominican Team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic along with a host of teams in the Arizona Fall League and the Dominican Winter League.

I’m not sure a guy with no Managerial experience at the MLB level is what the Pirates should target, but Linares is going to be on the short list around the league especially after the success Quatraro has experienced in KC.

The Pirates seem to always be trying to imitate the Rays, why not take advantage of some of their coaching culture.