9-2-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Bucs for the most part have shown themselves incapable of escaping their own worst impulses and shortcomings. It feels like if there is a worst case scenario, the Pirates are at least going to take it right to the edge of fulfilling it if not exceed it.

Today, let’s talk a lot about things the Pirates need to make sure they get done with this last month, and some player decisions that it might spawn.

Oh, and Happy Labor Day!

Let’s go!

1. Thomas Harrington & Bubba Chandler

Fans always want to see the kids, but in this case I personally think you should pump the brakes.

I understand the excitement, and I truly believe both have a bright future, but one thing a team like this can’t afford to do is start the clock on and use up 40-man spots on players that don’t require it yet.

Next season the Pirates will show up to camp with Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows and hopefully Braxton Ashcraft competing for spots and already on the 40-man. Much like last year, they’ll give Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington a shot to win a spot, just like Jared Jones.

To push them up here for 1 or 2 starts at the end of a season in which they aren’t competing for a playoff spot, well, it’s just not something most teams will do.

Let’s say they pitch 4 or 5 innings on September 13th, and they each go another 4 or 5 a week later. They’re on the 40 and now if they come up with an elbow strain or sore ankle, or god forbid, UCL like Mike Burrows, you lose potentially years of control over potentially transformative players.

That’s why it’s not done. Even if they were in an active race, I’d suggest a rookie is about the last thing you’re looking to for help.

Let nature take it’s course here. When you’re cultivating this much pitching, you can’t afford to force the issue, if anything, you’re kinda looking for ways to slow it down a bit.

2. Nick Yorke & Billy Cook

Both of these guys need protected from the Rule 5 draft, and both will absolutely be protected. This means, sometime in December, someone would lose their spot and these two guys would get added.

That sets up the opposite of the Harrington and Chandler situation for these two kids. It’s very likely both get added and called up before this season ends.

Both could play a lot of different positions, both have had killer minor league seasons and could help answer some questions about surviving Ke’Bryan Hayes and his back issues. They both could be helpful in the outfield, first base, DH, third base, even second and they both have at the very least doubles power and contact profiles that should give them a great shot to make it and stick in 2025.

No brainer here, get them here as soon as you can and let’s start seeing what we got here.

3. Liover Peguero

At 23 years old, Peguero isn’t old, but he’s been on the 40-man for 3 years now, a player rarely gets a 4th without impacting MLB.

He’s had a rather pedestrian AAA season. -0.4 WAR on the season to be specific, but the thing is, he’s been in professional baseball long enough that he really should be dominating his level, not just existing.

I don’t think there’s much to learn about Jared Triolo right now, or Isiah Kiner-Falefa at this point, so if I’m the Pirates, I use this time to get Peguero up here, plop him at short, slide IKF to third and let the last month here guide me as to whether keeping Peggy on the 40-man is smart.

He is the next “qualified” SS in the pipeline, and again, if I’m them, I want to see it, and see it now.

4. Shelton & Company are on the Clock

It’s been reported by Dejan Kovacevic at DK Pittsburgh Sports that, well, let him speak for himself “Based upon conversations I’ve had while here this weekend, Derek Shelton and his coaching staff need to get it together over the final month, or they’re as good as gone. I’m not guessing at that.”

This is a departure from where they’ve been, and what they’ve done post All Star Break is a direct cause.

I’ll be honest, if the GM is thinking like this, and I have no reason to doubt DK’s reporting here, chances are it’s already too late.

One month of baseball isn’t enough to erase 4 years of stink. Many of us were willing to give benefit of doubt because the team didn’t have much talent in his first 3 seasons, but as I keep saying, 90% of this team will return in 2025, so to see him and his staff utterly fail with this group at this point in time, well, it means arguably more than the previous 4 years ever could.

At this point it’s like signing up for one of those meal kit services and still claiming you “can’t cook” so you just leave it on your porch and never cancel the subscription.

Even if they go on a tear, it’ll be hard to ignore just how bad August was.

5. Have to Force Henry into the Lineup

What he’s done doesn’t matter, it’s more about understanding the things he needs to learn exist at this level, not MiLB.

It’s actually funny how quickly fans have decided they’ve seen all they need to see of Henry, even as they boil over with excitement for Joey Bart.

Henry has done all there is for him in AAA, now the time has come to let this play out in MLB and the more they get done this year, the less they’ll have to deal with in 2025.

I’d recommend moving him up in the order, giving him a chance to get a few more at bats and allow his defense to continue to progress by using Bart as a DH when he returns as much as possible.

Henry isn’t a guarantee, but he can’t afford to be as much of a question as he is right now when they show up to Bradenton next year.

Results matter, but he has to have a chance to work through it and that isn’t going to happen as a part time player.

All that said, if Derek Shelton is in as much trouble as was reported, it’s going to be hard for the team to force him to care about the future, a future he might not be around for.

9-1-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

This season has been filled with ups and downs, mostly downs recently, but it’s also important to take note of what we’ve learned about individual players that this team is almost sure to return in 2025.

Some of these might feel positive, some might be simply that more questions emerged, either way, we know more now than we did as the season started, and that’s still important.

Let’s go, these things usually wind up being fun.

1. Oneil Cruz

He’s Got the Bat – First things first, it took a while, but I think it’s safe to say now, the big bat we hoped he had that we could plop in the middle of the order is there. He’s hitting lefty’s and righties and no, I don’t care which entity wants to take credit for it although, the player should probably get more praise and blame when things do or don’t work out in general.

Centerfield, but… – OK, so it’s done, he’s now a Centerfielder, but there probably isn’t enough time in the season to truly feel comfortable. I think it’s fair to say we’ll absolutely see this as the plan heading into next year, it’s up to both Oneil and the team how good we feel by time Winter rolls around.

2. Henry Davis

He Can Catch – It’s not perfect yet, but he’s come a long, long way and while Joey Bart is going to get, and absolutely earned plenty of playing time, Henry has something no other Pirates catcher has, a killer arm and top of the league pop time. Watching the Pirates get absolutely abused on the basepaths, man, I’m not sure that’s a weapon we should be too anxious to move on from.

The Bat is Still Lagging – He’s hit in AAA, and I’m not going to make a bunch of predictions about how it will evolve, that’s not really what this piece is about, so all I can really run with here is you’re going to have to give it time, and the Pirates need to be willing to give him plenty of opportunity. Playing everyday in the minors and then coming up here to sit every other day won’t do, so it was encouraging to see them not only play consecutive days, but finally catch one of the pitchers they feel need or deserve special catching attention.

3. Bryan Reynolds

Still the Pirates Best Player – Every year we seem to want to hand it off to Oneil Cruz or whoever the hotness is, and every year Bryan just comes out and shows he’s the best player on the baseball team. His offensive game is complete. He can hit the ball everywhere, from both sides of the plate, for power or contact. His eye is elite and he can even run the damn bases when he gets on. He also doesn’t look like someone who’s destined to wind down early. AKA, the contract is going to look brilliant.

Defensively? – I think we’ve learned that Bryan Reynolds is simply never going to be an advanced analytics darling defensively. He passes the eye test, gets to most balls, cuts things off to hold runners back, makes strong throws. Yet year after year his -12 Outs Above Average is ranked 199th in baseball. Something they could do to really help him would be to put him in the smaller right field at PNC like they planned to in Spring. It also might be time to consider moving him to first base. Again, I think he’s plenty passable out there, but those numbers are not figures I believe he’ll improve on in left field again, not to mention, an easier on the body position might be wise for a guy you have long term.

4. Ke’Bryan Hayes

It’s All About the Injury – I think one thing is safe to say we’ve concluded. The back is an issue, one that isn’t going to just go away. We’ve heard Ke’Bryan talk about it, we’ve heard Ben Cherington talk about it. Sounds like they have had him in front of “World Leaders in the Field” and they have some clue as to how they want to attack it, but there can be no counting on Hayes to be healthy or effective moving forward. You can hope for it, but you better have a pretty damn good plan B.

There’s a Real Disconnect Here – Something stinks to me with the way Hayes has handled his back issues, and how the team has too. Players and teams don’t always agree about how to move forward with treatment for injury, but this one has lingered for years now and I’m sorry, it doesn’t matter who is more responsible, it isn’t working. Both entities have incentive to make this work, but it feels to me like neither side is willing to compromise on a path forward. Both sides seem frustrated. Time to go back to the drawing board and more importantly, don’t allow this situation to play out on the field if you can do better.

5. David Bednar

Blessing in Disguise? – I mean, I know and it’s been reported the Bucs were set to extend Bednar last offseason before he injured his LAT. This ill timed for David injury, well, it sounds bad but it might have been a blessing that keeps this team from an extension that I personally think they’d regret. There’s no reason to do anything but take Bednar to Arbitration the next two years and make a decision after that.

Velocity Up, Command Down – The Pirates were probably encouraged to see David’s velocity jump up a bit, even hitting triple digits once this year, the problem is, it came at the expense of his command. In other words, his perfectly placed 95 MPH fastball 2 inches off the top of the zone got chase and mis-hits. His 97 MPH fastball 5 inches off the top gets taken for a ball, unless of course he misses in the other direction, then it gets planted in the seats. Command is off on the Curve and Splitter too, but everything is more exposed when the heater is failing him.

6. Nick Gonzales

Kid is a Pretty Good Hitter – I love what I’ve seen so far. Over time, I expect him to produce a bit more power, but I’ll take what he’s doing right now regardless. He’s taking good at bats, hitting balls hard, running hard, taking walks, protecting the strike zone, I’ll just say it, I’m impressed. I think he’s done more than enough to feel like second base is all his unless he would come up lame.

Glove has Been Impressive Too – Again, he’s shown an ability to slow the game down and make his plays at second. Turning double plays, even while receiving some questionable relays here and there were on point. I certainly didn’t have Nick as my breakout player prediction this year, but he is probably the one who changed my mind the most as the season played out.

7. Joey Bart

Change of Scenery Worked – Joey has been the best version of himself really from the moment he became a Pittsburgh Pirate, and under team control for quite some time now, he’ll return next Spring firmly planted on the roster. Starter, backup, DH, honestly, it’s not all that important yet. His bat really performed well enough to think of him more as a bat who can catch than a guy who has to catch to be valuable.

Injury Concerns – I’m not here to say Joey is made of glass or he has anything chronic like Ke’Bryan Hayes, but he does take a beating behind the plate. Lots of thumb injuries, concussion concerns from being back there, but recently it’s been more groin and hamstring type stuff. Again, I’m not saying there’s anything he or the team need to do different here, just that regardless of what Joey Bart shows us he is, he’s probably not a guy who is playing 150 games even if they give him 75 at DH. There’s enough history here to see he’s good for at least 1 short trip to the IL here and there. On this team, that could be completely fine.

8. Paul Skenes

Oh Yeah, He’s Real – There’s no doubt about it, Paul Skenes is that dude. He hasn’t regularly hit triple digits in weeks, and he’s enough of a pitcher he can still use it in the same fashion. The Slider, changeup, splinker, and who knows what he’ll come up with next year all work and he’s a horse. It’s hard to imagine a sophomore slump for a guy who as we speak is overcoming his own body tiring on him in his rookie year.

Humble Leader? – I mean, a dude who simply says “good luck” to his competitors Humble? Well, yeah. He understand the chain of command, probably from his military time, and that comes with one truth it takes decades to learn for many, you don’t know everything. He’s open about how he’s learning, and who he’s learning from. He’s open about how he gets ready, and open to changing it up too if he feels he needs to. He leads by quietly doing his job, a workmanlike superstar who’s more than happy to let Keller be the veteran leader and Jared Jones to be the emotional strikeout artist.

9. Mitch Keller

Availability – Mitch’s best ability is his Availability. He’s healthy, he takes every turn and for the most part he gives you a chance to win. He has a shut down pitcher in there, but primarily, what you KNOW you’re going to get from Mitch is going to give you 175-200 innings and for the most part stay on your roster. I honestly think this is in part a choice, because Mitch could go max effort a lot more often. His number would be more impressive, but he’d exit more games earlier and likely wind up on the IL here and there too. Say what you want, but the dude doesn’t miss turns and he’s very likely to turn in a sub 4.00 ERA again. Great Extension.

Need to Whittle His Mix – Mitch does a lot of good things, but he’s got to start seeing his cutter isn’t his friend. The league is slugging .514 off the pitch, and last year it was .504, that can’t be a pitch he continues to throw 12% of the time. I’m actually of the belief he’s throwing it more than this, but statcast is classifying some of them as sliders. The sweeper, slider, cutter is creating a situation where he has 3 pitches on the same plane, wait for the one with the least spin and hammer it. 2 years is plenty of evidence. Even if it’s to save his arm, it’s ineffective.

10. Connor Joe

A Role Player Asked to Do Too Much – I’m not sure what to do with Connor Joe. I’m pretty sure he’ll start out next year hitting the cover off the ball, and I’m almost equally sure right around when you start convincing yourself he has to play more he’ll start to fall off. If the Pirates bring him back he has to be more of a bench role. Whether it’s his physical ability to stay fresh playing so much or just playing too much exposes him, I think I’ve seen there simply isn’t a starter here, for more than an emergency fill in stint. RJ Reynolds if you’re old like me.

Value in a Righty Platoon Hitter – Maybe? I see this as an easy upgrade, but one I’d be scared to just cut loose before I locked up whomever is going to play first base. Connor isn’t a starter, but there is a pretty darn good bench player there, one a big part of me wants to see used exactly like that before I decide I’m all good. That said, it’s hard to think you couldn’t find someone with even more versatility and a better stick. I can see him being a non-tender possibility.

8-31-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Too little too late.

David Bednar has been showing all season long that something simply wasn’t right. Why doesn’t really matter anymore does it?

I mean, was it the Pirates fault because of how they began the season with David? Was it David being stubborn about not wanting to go on the IL. I’ve noticed a whole lot of amateur dietitians have decided David is too fat, maybe that’s it.

None of it matters because, well….

These numbers can’t be allowed to happen, while remaining in the closing role on a baseball team claiming they want to compete.

You don’t get the privilege of this kind of patience anymore once your team is supposedly competitive.

Now, the relievers as a whole have been fairly awful this season. Sure, there have been some more reliable than others, although you won’t find a single example of a Bucco reliever who didn’t have some distinctly awful performances as this has all played out.

That said, there have been ebbs and flows, like there always are for relievers. Rarely do you have guys go tape to tape performing at the top of their game.

Early this year, Colin Holderman became the only truly reliable reliever. When he was at his best, Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar weren’t.

Eventually this would net Colin some higher leverage situations, even bumped Chapman to the 7th inning for a while. When David Bednar was used 2 days consecutively, Holderman was starting to be the choice if they needed a game closed out 3 straight contests.

Then it went bad for Holderman and it took weeks of it before the Pirates adapted even as Kyle Nicolas had proven himself after his shaky start to 2024.

All the while, David Bednar remained in the closing role. At one point, he closed successfully 19 straight opportunities, and they were rarely clean outings. Still, he was managing to get the job done and with so many underperforming, I suppose it made sense to just leave him there while it was getting the job done.

But to watch this play out for 30 games, and do nothing?

And really, it’s been worst than that. His year long numbers, I mean they’re the stuff of DFA candidates or waiver claims, not 2 time All Stars.

I mean, here is a look at Craig Kimbrel’s numbers this year. A guy who was removed from the closer role in Baltimore.

These numbers weren’t good enough to be the closer on a playoff team. A guy with a much longer track record and far superior career numbers to David Bednar, was given a leash about a quarter as long.

Again, his numbers aren’t horrible for the season, but he couldn’t survive this brutal stretch…

Unsuccessful teams like the Pirates and Reds, well, they don’t always make these calls fast enough.

Much like David Bednar, the Reds and manager David Bell have an unhealthy relationship with their supposed biggest and baddest bullet.

Not quite the disaster Bednar has been, but certainly not what you want from your closer.

And you have to imagine if what you’re about to look at continues, he’ll be one of the next to join the group of former closers.

For years, the single excuse for having a closer has been “it takes a different kind of guy to close out games”.

I’ll go along with that to a degree, it does take someone who can go get a strikeout when they need to. Barely walk anyone and have the fortitude to understand the game is on the line and nobody is going to be warming up as a safety net.

I get it, but teams are costing themselves wins by continuing to make this some kind of hard to change situation.

By calling them a closer and making a huge scene out of their seemingly impossible to attain gumption to finish games, they create a situation where change requires hurting feelings, talking to the press, and then…I almost forgot…then they have to pick someone new, and of course, that must be a decision that lasts for weeks.

I’d simply suggest, wouldn’t we be farther ahead if we just looked at the matchups and made decisions on who the pitcher would be based on that? Like, if a team’s 4 best players are due up in the 9th, and 3 of them are left handed, please describe a world to me where it makes more sense to pitch David Bednar as opposed to Aroldis Chapman? Regardless of what you call either of them?

I’m glad they’ve finally decided to make this move. I also don’t think a team like this can afford to throw away wins in an effort to not hurt feelings, or some silly belief that someone else can’t get 3 outs even as you’ve watched the person you claim to be comfortable with doing so has failed over half the time for a month.

8-30-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Not good enough.

That’s really been the story of 2024. Name an area of this team, and you’ll always land on that very small phrase.

And yet, I look at this roster and I find precious few places where I foresee them upgrading for myriad reasons.

Now, it makes no sense, and yet when I get done going through this, I’m not sure how you could disagree. Not good enough probably doesn’t equal returning 90% of the roster in most cases, but I believe that’s exactly what we’ll see play out here in Pittsburgh.

Think about it like this.

The outfield is now probably pretty set. Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Bryan De La Cruz are all going to be back. Jack Suwinski is very likely to get another look, even if just as a platoon and backup center fielder option.

The infield again, smart or not, is likely built primarily from Ke’Bryan Hayes, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Gonzales and you have to imagine Endy Rodriguez. Connor Joe could be in the mix for either of these first two spots, but he isn’t a guaranteed tender recipient and probably shouldn’t be.

Catcher should be easy right? You have Joey Bart, Henry Davis and Endy at some point will factor in potentially. Hard to see them going out to get another you’d guess.

Starting rotation maybe? Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows and eventually Johan Oviedo should all at least have a shot at having a role. Some could even find their way to the bullpen.

The bullpen, now here you have some holes. David Bednar will in all likelihood be tendered, but he might not actually be automatically the closer. Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta (at some point), Dennis Santana has a couple years of arbitration and he’s done well. Kyle Nicolas for the most part has had a very positive season.

It’s pretty clear there is room to improve this pen, and I have no doubt they will. It’s also not an empty closet filled with cobwebs.

I go through all of this and I see only a few real spots for free agent or trade targets. Unless you want to move on from any of the guys I listed off.

First base, Designated hitter, Bullpen arms, specifically left handed back end minimally although I think they could go get 2 or 3 arms and have it make sense.

Designated hitter shouldn’t be filled solely by Andrew McCutchen next season if you ask me, but he’s a very likely player to be brought back. This is a distinctive area for improvement opportunity to me. Bring Cutch back as a bench bat as opposed to every day starting DH. It would give them room for some improvement on their bench for starters. Provide them with room to give other players at bats and rest too, but this is more of a role change and opportunity to potentially target someone with even more of a track record.

First Base, I suppose you can either go get a real free agent or trade for one. Could probably decide to just let it ride with Endy and Joe, but it feels like if you don’t upgrade big right here at this position, well, it seems to me that would be missing a very big opportunity to improve this lineup. At the very least you have to replace Rowdy Tellez production if not double it. I’m not sure Endy and Joe do that, at least not in the year of our Lord 2025.

This whole Oneil Cruz shakeup creates waves too. Cruz being a center fielder should still be a question, but Cruz as an every single day bat, that’s not questionable at all. He has to play, and the team is going to give him every opportunity to have that be CF. A position that was a dire need is now filled, regardless of how it turns out, I can’t see them upgrading it now.

That said, it’s left SS in the hands of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. I like him, but I think SS is arguably his worst position. For him, that’s still better than most, but there’s no denying what was a hard hitting position for the Pirates will now become less. That’s ok, but I felt they needed him to back up the entire infield, maybe even CF. There is much more value in IKF playing 6 days a week than planting him somewhere, at least the way I see him. Ke’Bryan Hayes will get another chance, and his injury is likely to mean he needs to sit 2-3 times a week. IKF is the guy I want there because the alternative is Jared Triolo.

Liover Peguero might have a new crack at getting back to MLB here. The opening at SS should create a window for such a move, of course, it could also be a place where the Pirates could go get someone to help. Spend money on a guy like Ha-Seong Kim and you have successfully upgraded a position here.

All of this leads me to the biggest change they could make being the manager.

Some of you are like duh I’m quite sure, but where are you willing to cut bait? Who have you seen enough of that I listed? How likely is a free agency or trade upgrade to happen?

Like I said, I see SS as a potential area where they could do better, but will they see it that way? I’m not so sure. I see first base as a clear need, will they think they can just roll with Endy and Joe and be ok?

Improving a team that has a bunch of spots filled with young players who you still want to give space to grow is either really smart or really dumb, and I’m afraid looking at this roster, that’s where I am.

I can’t tell you they should make minimal changes, but it’s incredibly easy for me to prognosticate that they’ll probably make minimal changes to the people actually hitting, throwing and catching baseballs.

If you think that’s wrong, show me where you think the wrong shows up? Do you think they just cut ties with De La Cruz and Suwinski to suddenly for the first time competently upgrade the outfield. Are they going to do better than two guys who have hit over 20 homeruns in this league when they do so? Man, I don’t bet on sports but that’s one I’d never make if I did.

Even my suggestion of upgrading Short Stop, admit it, when you read it you thought to yourself, yeah right Gary.

I come back to the coach because there is one way to truly improve a team that is going to return this many players. Develop them and deploy them more efficiently.

You can’t have that same group of players come back and expect different results unless you expect some of those players to take significant jumps forward and think regression is very unlikely from the others.

Do you believe Derek Shelton can deliver that? More importantly, does Ben Cherington?

Many are going to waste time and energy telling you why Cherington needs fired, me included at some point I’m sure, but I’ll save mine for when I see it as something I believe is even on the table. I don’t in any way believe that, not yet.

Double down on this coach and player group and this GM will either prove himself right or cost himself his position. It really is that simple. Change course on the coach now and probably buy yourself another year or so easily.

Who can we reasonably expect to improve next season?

Oneil Cruz looks incredible right now at the plate, so, let’s see more of that for more of the season. This should be reasonable to expect, he’s not returning from a year off in 2025. Defensively, the obvious, is he a CF or not. Is he a CF we think probably isn’t getting the job done defensively?

Ke’Bryan Hayes is a easy call here. He has to be better and he has a ton of room before he even threatens good. I’m also not sure his back will allow it. That said, this is by far the worst he’s been, chances are he’s at least a bit better in 2025 even if he has to play far less.

Gotta imagine Henry Davis is better right? Sure have to hope for it.

Point is, do the additions and subtractions however you like. If you come up with more than 4-5 additions that might matter, I think you’re probably going to be disappointed, but hey you’re a Pirates fan, you’re used to it.

2-3 additions, yeah, probably the sweet spot.

Well, that and one big subtraction that dominoes a few below him.

For real, it’s one thing to look at the lineup or rotation and complain. Lord knows they’ve performed poorly and deserve it. It’s another thing entirely to critically look at the roster and decide who is and isn’t a bad bet when you’re in the situation they’re in.

Be honest. Be real. Don’t pretend they’re going to think they’re going to take a youngster like Nick Gonzales and bench him for some stud free agent.

Unless you want to cry about it not happening all offseason anyway.