Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (42-61) at Arizona Diamondbacks (50-53)

7-25-2025 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

The Pittsburgh Pirates, for better, and definitely for worse, have been an enigma this year.

Coming out of the All-Star break, Pittsburgh dropped all three games to the Chicago White Sox on Yinzerpalooza weekend, something that felt like another new low for a franchise that recently fell below .500 historically.

The encore you ask? Sweeping the Detroit Tigers, who are primed to take the American League Central division and be a potential AL Pennant winning team this year, and not only did Pittsburgh sweep Detroit, they did so convincingly, outscoring the Tigers 17-6 across the three game series.

Pittsburgh now turns its attention to the Arizona Diamondbacks (50-53), who did the completely opposite of what the Pirates did entering the second half, sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals to get back to .500 before being swept by the Astros in their previous series.

Unlike the Pirates, Arizona still has an outside chance at the postseason, but it appears they will be sellers with pieces like Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen being intriguing options for opposing teams to try and poach away from the desert.

Nevertheless, the Pirates and Diamondbacks will do battle at PNC Park this weekend, and here’s what you can expect.

7/25

Pirates: RHP Mike Burrows: 1-3, 4.70 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 46.0 IP, 46 H, 48 K, 19 BB, 8 HR

Diamondbacks: RHP Ryne Nelson: 6-2, 3.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 84.1 IP, 63 H, 69 K, 26 BB, 9 HR

7/26

Pirates: LHP Andrew Heaney: 4-9, 5.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 102.0 IP, 99 H, 74 K, 35 BB, 20 HR

Diamondbacks: RHP Merrill Kelly: 9-5, 3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 122.0 IP, 92 H, 118 K, 37 BB, 13 HR

7/27

Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes: 5-8, 1.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 127.0 IP, 85 H, 137 K, 31 BB, 6 HR

Diamondbacks: RHP Zac Gallen: 7-11, 5.58 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 121.0 IP, 120 H, 116 K, 46 BB, 23 HR

Pirates: Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz was the Pirates “big” offseason acqusition this past winter, as he was brought over from. the Cleveland Guardians in the Luis Ortiz, having played all for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2024.

The move was a gamble (see what I did there) on the part of the Pirates, and although Horwitz hasn’t quite broken the scale, and he likely never will, he has been strong since coming out of the break, posting a .381/.458/.619 slash with nine RBIs, four of those coming on his first career grand slam on Wednesday.

Horwitz has posted a .264/.333/.390 slash versus right handers this season, so he has a prime opportunity to keep his strong play going through the weekend versus Arizona.

Diamondbacks: Eugenio Suarez

This is one of those “well duh”‘s when it comes to who’s hot for Arizona, because Eugenio Suarez has been on an absolute tear for the Diamondbacks.

Viewed as a prime trade candidate, Suarez has launched five home runs in his past seven games, slugging .958 in that span.

It gets even more impressive for Suarez when you look at his past 30 games, as he’s hit 15 homers and slashed .297/.365/.748 during that time, posting 29 RBIs on top of that.

Although PNC Park isn’t a strong right-handed hitting ballpark, especially for home runs, keep an eye on Suarez to go yard this weekend, because although he’s 0-7 in his last seven at-bats, it seems like everything he touches at the plate is going far and over fence.

Pirates: Joey Bart

The Joey Bart who had massive contributions in 2024 is all but gone at this point and it doesn’t seem to appear the needle is pointing upwards anytime soon for the Pirates catcher.

Bart has posted a .155/.219/.175 slash over his past 30 games and he has just three hits in his last 16 at-bats, playing in just four games since July 13 in favor of Henry Davis.

If Bart was hitting, I could see him getting more reps, but the development of Henry Davis and eventually a healthy Endy Rodriguez is much more important at this juncture.

Diamondbacks: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

The Diamondbacks outfield has been headlined by Corbin Carroll since his arrival a few years ago, but Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been a contributor to that group since 2023, having impressive campaigns the past two seasons.

2025 hasn’t been as kind though, seeing Gurriel Jr.’s OPS drop from .757 in 2024 to .701 in 2025. He hasn’t had a great past 30 games either, posting a .215/.273/.339 slash with just two home runs in his past 121 at-bats.

Gurriel Jr. did have one hit and three walks versus the Astros in the last series, but the left fielder has to find his past form if the Diamondbacks want any chance of contending for a wild card spot.

Pirates:

Ryan Borucki(15-day IL), Chase Shugart(15-day IL), Johan Oviedo(rehab 60-day IL)

Diamondbacks:

Shelby Miller(15-day IL), Ryan Thompson(15-day IL), Jalen Beek(15-day IL), Connor Kaiser(7-day IL)

Notes

  • Arizona is 12-8 in their past 20 games versus Pittsburgh
  • Pittsburgh won the first series between the teams in May, including a 10-1 win in. the finale
  • Both teams appear to be trending as sellers as the trade deadline approaches
  • Players to play for both franchises include Jay Bell, Starling Marte, Reggie Sanders, Raul Mondesi, Bronson Arroyo and current Pirate Tommy Pham, with Kevin Newman being the other most recent Arizona and Pittsburgh player
  • Arizona started their sell-off this week as they shipped out Josh Naylor to Seattle, making one less potent bat to watch out for in their lineup this weekend.

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Starter Spotlight: Turn Up The Heat and Melt Melton

7-23-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following strong pitching and hitting in the first two games against Detroit, the Pirates are poised for a potential series sweep against the Tigers if they can keep hot and overcome the MLB debut of today’s starter, Troy Melton.

The Tigers 10th ranked prospect (per MLB Pipeline) was drafted in the 4th round of the 2022 MLB draft out of San Diego State and moved quickly through the minor leagues, splitting this season between AA and AAA with a combined 2.99 ERA across 75.1 innings with 101 strikeouts to 20 walks in 2025.

Melton features a 5-pitch mix of all above-average rated offerings: a mid-90s 4-seam fastball, a high-80s cutter, a high-80s changeup, a high-70s curve and a mid-80s slider which has a 53% whiff rate on the season.

Melton had some early struggles following his promotion to the Tigers top minor league affiliate, the Toledo Mud Hens, as he posted a 7.59 ERA through his first three starts over 10.2 innings – but, over his next 5 appearances since then posted a 0.70 ERA over 25.2 innings with 40 strikeouts to 5 walks over that stretch.

It’s going to be a difficult matchup with Melton but expect that he’s going to fill up the strike zone with everything in his arsenal as he was among the best in the International League for K-BB rate.

After building momentum with wins in the first two games of this series against more established arms, it’ll be key to stay hot in order to ice out Melton. Look for a heavy dose of the fastballs up in the zone a

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Starter Spotlight: Size Up Mize

7-22-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After another elite performance from Paul Skenes, the Pirates finally got back in the win column and look to keep that momentum going tonight with the next Tigers starter, Casey Mize.

The Pirates faced him last month in Detroit and, while they didn’t look completely overmatched, Mize posted a strong outing as he went 6 strong allowing 3 runs (2 earned) off 5 hits, no walks and 4 strikeouts – another outstanding outing in an All Star first half of the season.

That said, some cracks showed up in his final game before the break as he allowed 6 runs across 3 innings of work against the Seattle Mariners on July 12th and that is what we’re going to try using as a template for how to approach Mize in the game today.

As we discussed last time around, Mize features a fastball-heavy approach with his mid-90s 4-seam & sinker plus a high-80s splitter – and he leaned even more heavily on those in his last outing as they comprised 49 of his 68 total pitches thrown in the game.

He left the sinker up more often than not with 8 of the 12 thrown in the top/middle part of the zone while his 4-seam fastball wasn’t getting chases (30% oSwing%) and when hitters did chase, they still made contact at a 100% rate.

But typically his best pitch – the splitter – ended up being biggest problem for Mize as he struggled to locate the splitter (only 6 of 15 were in the strike zone) and when he did locate them, hitters were all over it.

The Pirates as a team, unsurprisingly, have struggled against the splitter this season. Bryan Reynolds has looked awful against the offering with a 51.3% whiff rate in 14 plate appearances where he has seen the pitch but Oneil Cruz will be one of the guys to watch as he has the most plate appearances against a splitter and has a .412 batting average with a .471 SLG% against the offering.

Similarly, Andrew McCutchen has had a great eye for the pitch with a .444 batting average and .610 wOBA against the offering across 10 plate appearances.

These two will need to be locked in and ready for that low-splitter while the others will need to target sinkers up in the zone. Work counts and attack mistakes in-zone as Mize still has a strong 6% walk rate.

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Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Bottom of the Barrel

7-21-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The MLB trade deadline is in 10 days, and the Pirates will absolutely be moving a decent amount of their active roster. The fact that saying something like this isn’t terrifying pretty much sums up why it has to be done.

Today, I’m dumping a lot on you. Things I’ve heard, things I think and things I want to see. I’m not going to try to sell you a bright future, or paint an impossible path forward, as always, I’ll tell you what I know, and think but it’s up to you to decide what to do with it.

Lets Go!

1. Ready or Not, Here They Come

It doesn’t matter one bit whether the 2025 Pirates can handle the loss of a player. What I’m saying here is, whether a prospect is ready to fill a role or not, none of these rentals need to be retained.

I know some have suggested the possibility of holding onto Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but I really think they need to just clean out as much as they can here.

The team in 2026 already has a lot of it’s foundation. And yes, I know they could move some of these guys, but for the purposes of this conversation, assume moves are held to rentals.

SP Options – Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Mike Burrows, Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, Jared Jones at some point later in the year. That’s with no free agents brought in. Not even a cheap soft tossing lefty as is tradition.

Hayes, Reynolds, Cruz, Horwitz, Davis, Gonzales are all very likely to be back and expected to start.

The only one of them with a legitimate chance to be dealt from this list is Hayes, and I’m not sure how realistic that is to believe. Reynolds you would be selling incredibly low, you owe the organization another year before you do something stupid.

Cruz will wind up at least close to a 30/30 season, I’m sorry, that’s good, no matter what you expected.

Horwitz will get the rest of this year, but let’s be real, they aren’t adding primary 1B to their shopping list for next year. And Davis is a 1:1, who has at the very least proven he can handle all the defensive responsibilities. Personally, I think with more consistent at bats that aspect will come along too, but it doesn’t have to in order to see him coming back and starting in 2026.

I point this out because, they could make 6-7 trades this deadline, Pham, Ferguson, Ramirez, Heaney, IKF, Bart, Santana, Bednar. OK, no fair talking about Bart, Santana and Bednar, they all have team control, just not much.

If they move all these guys, sure, it won’t feel great. The bullpen would take a big hit, IKF has been at least a good contact hitter. I personally won’t miss his glove at SS.

All of those players, packaged or not will return players. Some like Cam Devanney who might step right in and get a chance to help, some to pop in the lower levels and cross your fingers over.

When all that shakes out, we’ll see who comes up. We’ve pretty much had Cook and Yorke, Bubba and Barco to whine about this year, maybe these trades add a player or two into that mix of what comes up here and fills in the holes that have been created.

The rest of this year should be all about seeing what’s here for 2026, period. That should mean a reduced role for Cutch, who I do expect to return, but for this year, give some DH at bats to bigger questions, we know what Cutch is, let’s leave his tank half full.

Point is, get ready for kids, ready or not. Training wheels are and should be off.

2. Stop Thinking About Swinging, and Do It

Hitting is hard, and hitting with your mind full of mandates is even harder.

The Coach is preaching aggressiveness. The GM and his horde of analysts preach patience. The Hitting coach(s) have done precious little to effect the baseball club. Hitting coaches in MLB don’t effect every player, period, but what you can expect is for them to be good at something. Like finding power that’s been hidden, or helping players improve in zone whiff rates, or recognizing offspeed. Something.

Frankly, Hague could be great at any or all of those things, I just haven’t seen it. Haven’t heard anyone call him out in either direction of influence. Vogelbach is another story all together, here’s a guy who absolutely reflects exactly what Cherington wants in a hitter, so it made total sense when they brought him in as an assistant hitting coach, but the thing is, Vogelbach was elite at one thing, seeing more pitches than anyone else in baseball.

Yay right? Sure he had some power and it worked for him. He was a borderline MLB player who hung around longer because of the way he approached at bats. Thing is, he couldn’t do what Cruz can, so he lost nothing by seeing 8-9 pitches and not swinging at that one in the zone. He’s a compression bandage on a fractured leg, it won’t help, you never really should have thought it would but it looks like you tried.

Bottom line, get up to the plate with as clear a head as you can, and simplify as much as you can. It sounds dumb but sometimes it is best to just forget everything else and see ball-hit ball. I can say, when your approach as a GM is to produce a system that makes guys better hitters, you have 5 years of evidence it isn’t working, I dunno, maybe change the focus to finding guys that don’t need tricks to hit.

Having an overriding offensive philosophy is fine, but this one is designed to make Waiver claims average players. At best it does nothing for guys who can actually achieve more than that, but many times it catches them in the swirl around the drain.

3. The Room is Divided

Having veteran players around is awesome, and it’s entirely normal to expect them to be seen as a resource in the room. Problem is, all the energy on this baseball team is with one of the youngest players, who also happens to be the true leader of this room.

Guys aren’t disrespecting each other or anything crazy like that, but let’s just say, the highest this team ever got when they were good in the last decade, isn’t high enough of a target for the young leadership.

The best way to put this is, the Paul Skenes, Nick Gonzales, Jared Jones, Henry Davis types, don’t really have a lot of interest in looking back to that era as some guiding light. After all, they didn’t win.

The Tommy Pham, Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Steven Brault, Fort, Capps, types who hang around talking about their own personal good old days or the good old days here, well, they’d like to be seen as a resource, and they certainly are respected, but they simply aren’t seen as examples of “how to win”.

And this leaves out the group of Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, Keller who have all been absolutely bathed in this franchise. Too late to remember the good times, too early to still believe it’s building to something. Caught in the middle due to being quiet leaders to begin with, and having full banks of awful seasons to rub their nose in.

Everyone seems to really like the managerial change, but they’ve also just lost 11 of 12, so it stands to reason if this continues that won’t hold.

The point is, there is no unifying voice speaking for everyone. There are leaders. But no LEADER.

Don’t take this weird, it doesn’t take a leader to tell everyone to start hitting. It takes a leader to shut the locker room door, tell everyone what I say here is just for us, F what’s going on outside this room, F all the rumors, let’s just play baseball the way we can.

If you think that’s fan fiction type stuff, I did too until last week when I talked to Travis Snider former OF for the Buccos back when the run started in 2013, and he told me this is exactly what happened in that room.

I still don’t think they’ll trade a bunch of vets, but if you want a reason for an actual shakeup of the core players here, this is the best argument.

4. It Doesn’t Make Sense and Never Will

There’s a reason nobody can tell you what the plan is here with Ben Cherington or Travis Williams and it’s incredibly simple, it doesn’t make sense.

In fact, here’s how it would make sense.

If Bob Nutting were to come out and say this is my management team in 2026, I just straight up feel they need one more year.

Stop yelling at the screen, this didn’t happen, I’m just making a point.

But say he says it. Well, at the very least we, the fans, the writers, the podcasters, the journalists, we all get to ask questions based on this knowledge. We all get to challenge Bob on what exactly he thinks he sees. We get to open our minds to bigger trades and roster fluctuations.

Sure, we still want these guys gone, but at least we can prepare for what it looks like going forward and talk about it with some base of information.

Now, he hasn’t said anything like that, instead, he reasoned with the media that it would be too difficult to do in-season, which of course sounded a lot like by the end of the season this guy is meat.

That gave us questions too, most of them surrounding the concept of “What the hell are you letting a guy you’re going to fire make decisions that will effect the team beyond his tenure for?”

Cherington himself has moved on to 2026 messaging, Bob Nutting (last time he publicly spoke) said he wanted to focus on 2025, AKA right now.

Maybe the math changed in the background as the record continued to plummet, perhaps they’ve had an updated talk where Bob has now said ok, I get it lets look at 2026.

I still have to ask though, why are you ok with it? If he were to do a follow up interview now and was point blank asked if Cherington will be back, would he answer it straight up? I doubt it but folks, nothing is going to make sense until this team makes an effort to actually make decisions that look like they collectively are moving together.

I can make sense of things I disagree with. I can’t make sense of situations that are purposefully being kept in a state of nonsense.

Add all this to the list of things this room can’t look to for answers.

I believe Travis Williams and Ben Cherington will both be fired before 2026. I won’t put percentages on it because frankly, it’s lazy, but I will say if it’s only one who gets the axe, it’ll be Williams.

I don’t believe Ben Cherington will be permitted to execute any big trades, if only because I don’t think he has the sway to convince Bob it’ll work. (Again, makes no sense, this entire sentence, but it’s honestly where I am based on what I’ve heard and seen reported). I’ll just add here, the last person I want making the final call on a move is Bob Nutting, he doesn’t know baseball in that way for one thing, and most of the “bigger” trade candidates are PR hits waiting to happen, at least in his mind.

The Pirates payroll will still increase next year, provided they don’t trade one of their contracted pieces and might even if they do.

If both are fired, I think we can expect the new President to have an “in” with MLB. It’s been missing with Williams, and I’ve heard Bob recognizes he needs that for helping to oversee the baseball side of things.

That person would likely come with a list of candidates for GM in pocket, before even hiring the search firm.

The bottom line, it doesn’t make sense right now because it doesn’t make sense. None of it. That’s what turns all these conversations into death spirals. At some point, you have to willingly leave logic at the door to continue the conversation. It’s like trying to understand a multiverse story arc, nothing matters if every eventuality is plausible.

5. Don’t Cry For Me Pirates Nation….

I like baseball, and covering baseball, and talking about baseball, and I like doing it with all of you. A ton of comments lately on all the platforms I’m on anymore have been some level of empathy for my lot in life.

Please, don’t feel that way.

First, I’d be watching anyway. I’ve maybe ignored all of 10 ballgames since 2020 in total. Winning is a lot more fun of course, but maybe the best way to explain it is the way I explain it to my wife when she asks how I can keep watching losing night after night.

I told her it’s like my soap opera. See, she watches Young and the Restless, and I constantly ask her how the hell she keeps watching what I know she’s way to smart to enjoy. lol

She’s addicted to the story. One she’s shared with her great grandma, her grandma and her mother (it’s really her father but I like the guy so I went with mother). And it’s been bad for a long time, but every day there is a new story to follow, even if she scrolls Facebook the entire time it’s on.

Well, baseball is the same for me. It’s a story, with a lot of bad and a lot of good too. The 2013 Wild Card Game is like our Nicky and Victor wedding number 1 scene. Constantly waiting to see something that gives you the feels like that again, but understanding it probably isn’t coming while they have these shitty writers.

Get it?

As a fan, I want wins, and attitude and excitement and a CHANCE. As a writer/podcaster I want to journal the story and talk about ways it could go, and what could change the landscape or the fortunes of the team. Good or bad don’t change that.

Sure, they change my inflection, or my writing style, but they don’t change my enjoyment of the game, or the team or anything else.

I’m lucky, I’ve gotten to know several players through the years and I’ve come to understand the game going on between, before, during and after the games like I never thought I would. In some ways, I’ve seen too much, like my cousin who I took to a WWE show at PPG Paints Arena and he saw the wresters shaking hands back stage, shattering his belief system entirely for the “sport”.

Like, you can look at a player and just say DFA that piece of crap.

I have to think, does he have options? Are we sure he’s a piece of crap? Who’s going to backup SS then?

It’s different, but not damning. I appreciate the game from a different seat now than I did half a decade ago, but that doesn’t mean that I see a double and instantly turn to Statcast to see if it was the right kind of double based on the exit velo, I just appreciate the double.

I also get to see the struggles a bit behind the scenes. Players trying like hell to be consistent, while setting foot on a field maybe twice a week. A slight change in a swing plane that takes a guy from a line drive machine to a ground ball inevitability (cough, cough Reynolds).

A coach that’s completely checked out who is still going through the motions in the media may not hit reports, but it changes everything about how you read or hear his answers, or how you expect players to react to him.

Never forget why I started doing this, for free mind you. I felt this team had some of the worst coverage in professional sports, and trying to explain things to fans I hoped would empower them to have better conversations about the game, and the team.

I’ve gone through bouts of being discouraged that I haven’t had that effect, and have come out of it knowing the best I can do is put it out there, it reaches who it reaches.

I want you to think. And I want to make sure I give you as many tools to do so as I can.

All that said, losing sucks, and yes it gets boring saying every day they can’t hit in a different way, but it’s all part of the story.

I guess the difference is, I haven’t written the end already, which it seems most of my media brethren have long since done.

The only thing that would stop me from being a Pirates fan is the team moving, and that’s not happening, even in your beloved 2030 so many of you have fooled yourselves into believing is the real goal for Nutting because he’s Snidely Whiplash after all. lol

I actually get to make some money doing this now, and we’re getting close to putting some ads on this site to help get all our talented writers compensated for the hard work they do. That’s all because a bunch of you decided what I had to say was worth listening to.

I’ll never take that for granted. That doesn’t mean I’ll always agree with you, or you’ll never catch a stray cause your question pissed me off, it just means I know I’m not here without you.

And without the Pirates, I don’t have a team.

They are far from perfect, but they’re mine. I love them, even the bad players, and I love following the story with all of you.

Let’s run through the tape on 2025, it may not be the story we wanted to be telling, but you can’t pretend it’s on a boring path either. Plenty to talk about, and watch.

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Starter Spotlight: A Flare For Dramatics

7-21-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After another rough series this weekend, the Pirates will try to rebound – but after losing three straight to one of the worst teams in baseball, they’ll have to face off against of one of the best as they welcome the Tigers to the Steel City with Jack Flaherty slated to take the bump for game 1.

A long-time Cardinal, Flaherty excelled in 2024 – his first full season out of St. Louis – as he posted a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA across 162 innings pitched between the Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers which culminated in the 29-year old righty winning his first World Series with LA. 

His second go-round with the Tigers has not been quite as successful as he enters today with a less impressive 4.65 ERA over 100.2 innings of work as the Tigers are 6-13 in games started by Flaherty despite a 54-27 record when any other pitcher toes the rubber to start the game.

The Bucs were surprisingly solid when they faced Flaherty last August while with the Dodgers, raking him for 4 runs over 5.2 innings while notching 9 hits (2 home runs) and a walk against 10 strikeouts – and that’s the part that has been consistent for the veteran righty.

Among qualified starting pitchers this season, Flaherty ranks 7th in strikeout rate (29.5%) and has the 5th highest mark dating back to the start of the 2024 season with a 29.7% rate and 318 strikeouts through 262.2 innings over that stretch.

Flaherty leans mainly on a 3-pitch mix: a low-90s 4-seam, a high-70s knuckle-curve and a mid-80s slider working low in the zone with his secondaries while pounding the batters upstairs with heat.

The breaking stuff has been a REAL challenge for opposing hitters as Flaherty is holding hitters to a .204 batting average with a 39.3% whiff rate combined with his slider and curve.

Lefties have had the most success against his fastball as they are batting .288 and slugging .600 against the offering with 7 of his 19 total home runs surrendered coming against the pitch via left handed hitters.

Right-handed hitters might want to target the slider, which can come across flat and hang up in the zone in these situations. While they are only hitting .244 against Flaherty’s slider, the xBA of .290 and xSLG of .508 are both much higher than against any of his other offerings.

Despite the strong overall numbers, Flaherty has been less proficient when pitching on the road as opponents are posting nearly 80 points of batting average more than when Jack is taking the bump at Comerica Park.

Key to victory today will be dependent on how determined this team is to break out of their funk. Can they rise to the occasion and actually put some runs on the board for their ace starter or will they continue to fizzle in another disappointing game in an absolutely disappointing season?

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Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (60-40) at Pittsburgh Pirates (39-61)

7-21-2025 – By Drew Cagle – @_dcagle on X

It’s hard to argue that the Pittsburgh Pirates have been in a lower spot than they are at the moment. A weekend series sweep at the hands of the lowly Chicago White Sox has spirits at a season-low on the North Shore.

In come the American League-leading Detroit Tigers, who’ve been stuck in rut of their own lately. Despite a Sunday Night Baseball win over the Texas Rangers, the Tigers have lost 6 of their last 7. In their prior meeting this season, Detroit won 2 of 3 inside Comerica Park in mid-June. Pittsburgh earned an extra-inning win in the final game of the series, but the Tigers slugged their way to two victories. They outscored the Pirates 20-13 in the series.

With rumblings from the fanbase about general manager Ben Cherington, owner Bob Nutting, and the lackluster on-field product, this series will test the mettle of Pittsburgh’s locker room. They’re tens of games out of contention with the trade deadlines just a couple of weeks away. Will the team splinter and continue their downward spiral, or recover to take a series against a World Series contender?

7/21

Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes – 121.0 IP, 4-8, 131 K/30 BB, 2.01 ERA, 0.93 WHIP

Tigers: RHP Jack Flaherty – 100.2 IP, 5-9, 124 K/40 BB, 4.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

7/22

Pirates: RHP Mitch Keller – 119.0 IP, 3-10, 92 K/27 BB, 3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Tigers: RHP Casey Mize – 88.2 IP, 9-3, 77 K/22 BB, 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

7/23

Pirates: LHP Bailey Falter – 101.1 IP, 6-5, 61 K/35 BB, 4.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Tigers: RHP Reese Olson – 63.0 IP, 4-3, 61 K/23 BB, 2.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Pirates: After an ice-cold start to the season, David Bednar has settled back into his closer’s role. The save to close out a 2-1 win in Minnesota gave the Mars product his 13th save on the season, and lowered his ERA to a respectable 2.53.

Tigers: Outfielder Riley Greene, in the midst of a career year, has caught fire. He’s hit safely in 5 of his last 6 games, including a 4-RBI day against the Mariners on July 12.

Pirates: Much of Pittsburgh’s offense has been dorment since their sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals at the start of the month of July. Jack Suwinski is just 1-for-12 (.083) since his callup on July 8. He’s looking to right the ship and catch fire with the weather.

Tigers: Despite his stellar season so far, Casey Mize was off his game last time out. He allowed 6 runs over 3 innings to the Seattle Mariners, inflating his ERA to over 3.00. Manager A.J. Hinch had a short leash, pulling the 28-year-old after just 68 pitches.

Pirates: RHP Johan Oviedo, RHP Jared Jones, 1B Enmanuel Valdez

Oviedo (lat) continues to progress through his rehab assignments. Jones and Valdez have been ruled out for the season.

Tigers: RHP Alex Lange, RHP Jose Urquidy, RF Kerry Carpenter, RHP Alex Cobb

Of the four, Carpenter (hamstring injury) is closest to returning. He has started running and throwing drills, per Evan Woodbery of MLive.com.

Notes

  • Detroit has performed far better against left-handed pitching (.262 average) than against right-handed pitching (.245) this season. This is of note due to Pittsburgh sending Skenes, Keller, and Falter to the hill.
  • On the other hand, the Pirates have struggled mightily against righties themselves. They’re hitting just .235, with a .307 OBP.
  • Despite the Pirates’ cold spell, they’re still a respectable 26-24 at PNC Park this season. Detroit is 27-22 away from home.
  • The bottom line for Pittsburgh is that they need to right the ship before the trade deadline. Even if it doesn’t result in victories, rehabbing the value of potential trade chips can only help the future of the club, no matter who’s in charge.

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Uncertainty is the Enemy of Progress

7-20-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates have a lot of problems. Breaking news, I know.

The biggest of all of them might be uncertainty.

Nobody knows who will be here after the trade deadline. Most don’t know who will be traded over the offseason. Let alone what if anything their bosses might bolt on to help them next year.

Hell, they don’t even know who they’ll call boss next year. In fact, according to most people I talk to and the few reports that have escaped the orbit of the locker room, they don’t really know who to call boss now.

There is no certainty of message, or goal, or the “plan”, and maybe you’re a fan who thinks to yourself, well, isn’t that the case for every losing team?

Sure, but most teams don’t experience that with a roster that largely will be back.

Players in that room don’t know who’s safe, but they know most of them will be. For the same reason I know it to be true.

The vast majority of this roster is either signed, playing on their entry level deal or just moving into arbitration. Meaning, it’s going to take purposeful decisions to change a whole lot of this roster. And that’s for the ones who haven’t played enough to truly know yet.

Losing brings this about, so does poor communication, and an overt failure to address the same missing pieces this unit has had for 2 seasons.

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating, I think this team will move most, if not all their rentals, and I think we’ll see them take no swings bigger than Dennis Santana and David Bednar.

There will be interest in others, but I just don’t see them changing anything fundamentally at this deadline.

This too comes from uncertainty.

If you’ll think back to 2019 when Neal Huntington and Frank Coonely were removed, Huntington was given a vote of confidence around the mid season mark, so was Coonely. Both had contracts that extended beyond 2019. Clint Hurdle was given the same assurances, after all, he had won here when given players, surely it wasn’t his fault he wasn’t winning without them.

We all know how that season ended, and we all know that Bob Nutting ate the money he owed all three of them.

I think he’ll do it again, and further, he’s learned from last time, no such assurances of his belief in his management team was put forward this time.

Even so, his silence, one way or another, creates uncertainty.

Baseball players aren’t guaranteed certainty. A player can be an absolute beast for 4-5 years and then suddenly nothing falls, they get a nagging injury that’s not bad enough for the IL, but bad enough to keep you from playing your best and there’s a good chance people wearing your jersey are booing you and the team is wondering if they can move forward with you in their plans.

The roster right now though, well it consists of a few guys who are signed, a few who are too young to give up on, even if they haven’t achieved being a lock yet.

There are players in that room right now who think if they went on a hot streak they’d almost assuredly get themselves traded, and there are others who at this point don’t care where they play, so long as they get to continue their MLB dream.

None of them dreamed about walking into a situation where they were lumped in to the problems of the last 40 or so iterations of the Pittsburgh Pirates that came before them.

I’m not judging anyone for calling for the owner to sell, or renting an airplane, I’m just saying, don’t be shocked when it rubs guys the wrong way, or even when they think playing in a poison bowl of sewage as it comes to the atmosphere might make players play like crap, or prefer to play elsewhere.

Your target is Bob or Ben or whatever, but when it happens at the ballpark, there’s very little chance you hit those targets without shooting right through the guys on the field.

Again, guys who you will largely have on your team next year.

Simplify this as much as possible.

Nobody expected to win from 2020-2023. Nobody expected this team to do more in free agency for the 2023 team than the 2024 or 2025 teams. And nobody should have expected that for the 5th straight year this team still needed an outfielder, short stop and first baseman.

I mean, not one accidental prospect who could at least play to league average in all that time, from any method employed?

For all the rentals they’ve sold off, all the swings at AAAA players, all the draft picks, all the waiver claims, all the position changes, they’ve come up with a fat nothing you can hang your hat on for more than the next 11 days, and even that, is IKF playing out of position.

This General Manager has some bad philosophies as it comes to offense, and unfortunately, it effects the types of players he tries to acquire. And even when it doesn’t, it’s the philosophy they try to mold them into.

It and he need to go.

Bob Nutting needs to bring some certainty back to this room, lord knows Cherington can’t, I’m told he’s only been in the room once since Shelton was fired, and frankly, he talks to the players the same way he does the media so just as well.

It’s not his fault that Reynolds is struggling, or that Cruz isn’t as good as he could be, or that Hayes simply isn’t the hitter he looked like he could be, but it is his fault he brought in nothing concrete to fortify what this team had.

The bottom line is, this job can be done better, despite all the impediments the league and owner put on whomever that is, it simply has to be done much better.

The longer there is uncertainty, the less and less like a team this will look. I don’t think they can afford to let this bleed into the offseason, but if they do, expect more of the same, cause this fish stinks from the head.

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Starter Spotlight: A Civale War

7-20-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Looking to avoid being swept at home by one of the only teams worse than them in the standings was not how the Pirates likely envisioned this series going but, here we are. After allowing 10 runs in each of the first two games this weekend, the Bucs will look to end Yinzerpalooza with a victory – if they can overcome today’s starter, Aaron Civale.

Acquired via trade from the Brewers last month, Civale has been one of the worst starters in MLB since heading to the South Side.

Between Milwaukee and Chicago, Civale has combined for a 5.30 ERA through 52.2 innings pitched. Despite that, Civale seems to always have the Pirates number – especially last season.

Bouncing between the White Sox, Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians over the past three seasons, Civale has become a bit of a nomad who has a combined 4.13 ERA over parts of 7 MLB seasons.

We have covered him extensively previously (most recently here) so the Pirates should know what to expect ahead of today’s matchup but let’s look at what happened last time around, as well as what he’s been doing since joining the White Sox.

During his last matchup with the Pirates on 5/22, Civale worked just 4 innings with 4 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts over his 73 pitches thrown.

He mostly leaned on his cutter (26) and sinker (21), which sat in the 90-93 MPH range.

He struggled with command as he placed only 39 pitches in the strike zone but missed up consistently. His sinker, in particular, was left up in the zone with Pirates hitters making contact on 5 of 6 swings against the offering.

He did generate misses on his cutter but not consistently and, when they made contact on the offering, it typically was solid with a first inning double by Andrew McCutchen and a game-tying homer by Spencer Horwitz both coming against the cutter.

Civale made waves earlier this year when he demanded a trade from the Brewers after a relegation to the bullpen, eventually getting shipped to Chicago in a swap for Andrew Vaughn but the results have been speaking for themselves.

Since switching leagues last month, Civale has increased usage of his mid-80s splitter and low-90s 4-seam fastball against left handed hitters while using his high-70s curve more against righties.

The splitter is providing solid results – when he has a good feel for it – as opponents are hitting just .133 against the offering with an average exit velocity of 77.8 MPH. He has been locating the pitch down and away from lefties so hitters will need to watch the spin and movement to try laying off the pitch today.

Look for elevated heat – cutters, sinkers – or the breaking balls that don’t break – curve, sliders. If he has his splitter working against lefties, it’s a tough pitch to square up so hitters will want to spit on it and attack other offerings.

A sweep today, while a cherry on top of this awful 2025 campaign, would further the eroding morale of this team and with much more competent competition ahead, this team can’t afford to play worse than they already are, right?

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Starter Spotlight: Not In Our Houser

7-19-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After getting dog-walked in the game last night, the Pirates will try to wash it off and figure out how to defend their turf as they pivot to facing their next opposing pitcher in long-time Brewer, Adrian Houser.

Houser, who spent nine seasons in the Milwaukee organization, enters today with a 5-2 record and 1.56 ERA through 57.2 innings pitched with the White Sox this year.

The 32-year old veteran righty is finding success despite mediocre strikeout and walk rates (17.3% and 8%, respectively) while benefiting from the highest strand rate of his career (85.8%) with much of this due to his ability to induce ground balls and avoid barrels.

Houser’s arsenal relies heavily on his low-90s sinker while using a mid-80s slider and low-80s curve as his main secondary options against righties while pivoting to a mid-90s 4-seam and mid-80s changeup when facing lefties.

He throws the sinker 55.4% of the time against righties and they are batting just .207 against the offering; however, this is mostly due to some batted ball luck as Houser has just a 6% whiff rate on the pitch against righties with a .283 xBA in these situations so right-handed hitters should be geared up to attack the pitch.

While lefties similarly have underperformed against his sinker (.205 BA with .270 xBA), Houser diversifies his mix and has gotten poor results with his changeup as his .357 BA and .375 xBA against the pitch are the highest among his main offerings.

Although his fans felt he was an All Star snub, he’s been teetering on the edge this season as among starters with at least 50 innings pitched, Houser sits with the third biggest difference between his ERA and FIP – indicating an eventual regression to the mean.

The Pirates have shown they can produce a solid offensive performance at home but they need to start showing that they won’t back down in their Houser.

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2024 Draft Class Check In

7-19-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

With the 2025 MLB Draft now in the books, it felt like a good time to take a stock of how the 2024 Pirates draft class is faring as professionals. The development of prospects is generally a long-haul process. It is absolutely nonlinear. Many of these players will go through cycles of success, struggle, & adjustment. It is just the nature of the game.

Here is my current recap on the performance of the 2024 draftees to date:

1 (9) – Konnor Griffin, SS/CF, A+- At the time of the draft last year it was widely acknowledged that Griffin was an absolute toolshed of skills. Along with this acknowledgment came the same refrain from just about every single outlet; hit tool & swing & miss make him very risky, tools be damned.

Flash forward to present day and Konnor Griffin has put most all of these concerns to bed. He has read them a bed time story, tucked them in tightly. The concerns are dozing in their Victorian sleeping caps, snoring so soundly they are doing that thing that happens in cartoons where they’re blowing a feather up in the air while going “honk-shoo, honk-shoo.”

I must come clean, on two separate podcast appearances I advocated for the Pirates not to select Griffin based upon their recent history in developing hitters (prep hitters specifically). Now, in fairness to myself, pre-draft I expected the picks that preceded the Bucs to go differently than they did. Operating with immediate post-draft hindsight; Griffin was the best pick on draft day with how everything flowed. Looking back with long term, what we know now hindsight, he has a shot to not only be the best player in the class , be he has legitimate mega-star ceiling.

What we have seen so far from Griffin has been nothing short of total destruction of the lower minors. As of writing, one of the only nits to pick was some swing & miss present in A ball. In his early taste of A+ action, he has already improved this “flaw” raising his BB% from 6.5 to 12.2 while modestly cutting his K%.

Furthermore in his publicly available Statcast data from Bradenton, he is posting big time batted ball data at a precious age; 90.7 avg ev, 107.8 90th percentile ev, 114.2 MAX ev, & .492 xDamage. On top of this, he also swiped 26 bases in just 50 games. Unfortunately there will be no publicly available numbers like this again until he reaches AAA Indy, but if he keeps this up, the wait might not be all that long.

Not only is he the Pirates #1 prospect, but I think he is the #1 prospect in all of baseball.

1 (37) – Levi Sterling, P, CPX -A University of Texas commit that was pried away from the collegiate ranks with a $2,508,900 signing bonus. Touted as a one of the prep arms with the best “feel” for pitching along with having a relatively deep arsenal. Baseball America & Bucs on Deck’s own, Anthony Murphy, detailed the organizations’ belief that Sterling’s change-up has plus-offering potential.

The early results have been slightly mixed, but that is all but expected when it comes to a kid so early in his developmental track, especially when this is the first time he has ever focused solely on pitching. He will be one to follow closely.

2 (47) – Wyatt Sanford, SS/2B, A -Pirates were able to lure Wyatt Sanford away from a Texas A&M commit with a $2,497,500 signing bonus. Draft day scouting was certain to mention that Sanford looks like a sure-thing shortstop long term. Interestingly, he has been splitting his time between SS & 2B in A ball. Some of this is positional flexibility is due to sharing the field with Konnor Griffin.

Sanford is having himself a very successful debut too. After having sped through the Complex level the returns in A ball have begun to slow down after a torrid start. Of course there is often a acclimation period any time guys are elevated to a new level, especially youngsters like Sanford. But what we can see is that he just isn’t impacting the ball all that well yet in his current funk (sub par EVs & xDamage in A ball).

All in all, still an exciting piece to have in the system. He’s got an opportunity to finish strong still and I expect that he will do just that.

4 (112) – Eddie Rynders, 3B/SS, CPX – The third prep hitter selected in the Pirates first 5 picks of the draft, Eddie Rynders is a “cold weather” HS player. He has debuted in the Complex league where he has exclusively played 3B. Not as explosive of a debut as his Pirates peers, but encouraging nonetheless showing a sound approach walking 14.4% of the time and striking out at 23.8%. All in all, a fine debut for a young man making the adjustment to professional baseball. Hopefully Rynders will get the opportunity to play in A ball once the Complex league concludes in late July.

5 (145) – Will Taylor, OF, A+ – Taylor is a premium athlete. A two-sport collegiate athlete for the first two years of his time at Clemson, now focusing on baseball for just his second full year at the professional ranks. His A ball debut showed some of what he is capable of, showing an intriguing mix of power/speed driving 4 homers & 10 doubles along with 8 stolen bases in just 29 games.

Taylor has made the move to A+ ball & while the bat is still adjusting some, production wise, the approach still looks good sporting a 12.2 BB% versus a 22.6 K%. July has been good to Taylor and the tools are shining through right now. Fun player.

6 (174) – Matt Ager, P, A – Product of UC Santa Barbara, Ager is a large right-handed hurler. Standing 6’6″ one of the most intriguing aspects of his profile is the borderline elite extension (6.9 feet). The velocity is currently subpar sitting mid-80s & topping low 90s. Granted, with how much extension he gets this plays up quite a bit to the hitter. His pitch mix is rounded out by a slider, change-up, & curveball. Of the trio, his slider has been the most effective so far.

There is plenty of reason to believe that Ager will continue to develop within the Bucs pitching dev system but building up to a higher consistent velocity & refining command will go a long way toward his pro prospects.

7 (204) – Connor Wietgrefe, P, A+ – Wietgrefe is a lefty with a somewhat low arm slot. While the velocity is not “big”, the release point appears to help his stuff play up and get some whiffs. Unfortunately there is not much publicly available Statcast data so we have to be reliant on the eye test here. Should Wietgrefe be able to add some velocity perhaps there is some upside waiting to be uncovered yet. Either way, he has had a pretty good first full season in A+ ball.

8 (234) – Gavin Adams, P, CPX – Adams has appeared in 12.1 IP in the Complex league where he is posting the ever mind boggling negative K-BB ratio (-3%). He features BIG time velocity putting up triple digits, but the control/command has been more elusive than Big Foot. Given the huge velocity & K potential, he will at least be fun to monitor.

9 (264) – Duce Gourson, 2B/SS, AA -Gourson hit the ground running in A ball immediately after signing and found himself promoted to A+ just 11 games in to his pro career. 2025’s stint in A+ saw Duce handle his business earning a promotion to AA after 39 games and a .382 wOBA & 133 wRC+. Now with 17 AA games Gourson is still adjusting to the new level as his performance has not yet approached his A+ success.

10 (294) – Derek Berg, C, A+ – Hailing from Army West Point, Berg was a 10th round pick in 2024. He posted some interesting batted ball data in A ball (91.6 EV, 106.8 90th EV, 111.1 MAX). That did come with a whiff heavy approach. At best there might be a low-BA slugging back up catcher in here. He is currently in A+ Greensboro where his contact metrics has trended upwards in his small exposure to the level thus far.

11 (324) – Jacob Bimbi, P, A – Will not pitch in 2025, currently on the full season injured list.

14 (414) – Ian Farrow, OF, A – Farrow was a 16th round selection out of Florida Gulf Coast University on the strength of a monster Senior campaign. In his time in Bradenton he has flashed some interesting game power on the back of a lift & pull profile. He is pulling line drives & fly balls at a 36+% clip that is allowing his roughly 40 grade power EVs to play up in game. While the swing & miss is a bit much, he at least has shown the ability to draw a walk (11.5 BB%). If the swing & miss can come down there could be a fun player in here somewhere.

15 (444) – Ethan Lege, 3B, A -15th round pick Ethan Lege finds himself repeating A ball again in 2025. Thus far he has been over matched slashing just .227/.310/.297. At this point in time, it appears that Lege is merely organizational depth.

17 (504) – Andrew Patrick, OF, A – Picked 504th overall in 2024, the Wright State product has struggled to find a foothold in pro ball. He has shown his ability to draw a walk, but thus far this is where his successes have seemed to halt. Similarly to Lege, Patrick has an uphill battle to find relevance in the organization.

18 (534) – Jake Shirk, P, A+ – Jake Shirk has found himself in the Greensboro history books just 8 innings in to his A+ tenure. He tossed clean innings in not one, but two combined perfect games within a 2 week span. He has been a highly effective reliever in A+ thus far. Generating a lot of groundballs (50%) and throwing strikes (22.2 K-BB%). Take this in tandem with his cumulative 2.85 FIP between A & A+ and there could be a bullpen future here.

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