8-19-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates aren’t going to stop telling themselves, or you that they’re actively trying to make the playoffs this year until the day they’re eliminated. Nor should they.

I know to some fans that is the same as being lied to because they see the statistical likelihood and can’t see how that type of rhetoric could be coming out of anyone’s mouth. It’s really more about guys keeping their focus, knowing much of this team is returning in 2025 and the fact everyone on this team has played the game for at least 15-20 years and they all have 10-15 stories of the impossible happening in their back pocket.

Bottom line, until its mathematically impossible, you probably want your team to act like it’s mathematically possible. Right?

We aren’t players though.

So today, let’s look at what I see as the biggest questions heading into next season, and how they might be able to use the rest of this season to answer them.

1. Centerfield

I don’t think this one can be answered entirely for one thing. There’s nothing they’re going to do internally with the rest of this season that’s going to send the fan base into the offseason feeling like Center is all sewed up.

I think we can safely say Michael A. Taylor won’t be part of that solution.

Next season, I believe Billy Cook, Nick Yorke, Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae could all be in the mix for time in Center. 2 of those 4 are newly acquired and will need added to the 40-man.

I could see Jack Suwinski being a 40-man casualty, but it would be early to give up on that many MLB homeruns. Bae is getting a bit of an audition, again, right now. I’m not sure that he can sway the team enough.

Cook and Yorke have both taken reps out there, and scouts put a lot more faith in Cook’s ability to hold down the position potentially.

This is what they need to focus on understanding. These are the 4 options internally and they need to try to learn everything they can about all of them the rest of this year.

Even then, they probably still have to bring in a veteran.

Cook and Yorke both need added to the 40-man this December so some of this could and should be done at the MLB level.

And remember this too, trying to win right now isn’t just lip service to the players or coaches, despite results, so don’t expect them to cut Taylor, he’s a lot of things that add up to not good enough, but he’s easily the best defensive outfielder they employ too.

The really big thing here is, be completely decided on Bae by the end of the season. He’s either worth retaining or he isn’t. Don’t let this go into Spring, enough is enough. A nice to have would be feeling like Cook or Yorke might be plausible.

Jack isn’t going to answer anything this year, he’s just having a wasteland of a season and while I can’t see them just washing their hands of him, I don’t see them getting any meaningful new info from him either.

2. Bullpen Roles

I have almost no doubt the team is going to at least want to go into 2025 thinking David Bednar will snap back into form and serve as the team’s closer, but his struggles this year give them a unique opportunity to get some opportunities to let some others take a crack at gaining experience in the back end of the bullpen.

Not just David’s issues mind you, Carmen Mlodzinski being injured, Ryan Borucki missing most of the campaign and Colin Holderman seemingly losing everything that made him unhittable early on, they’ve all created opportunity.

Kyle Nicolas has really stepped in and taken more of a role. Big arm, big stuff, he’s already got people on record saying he has closer potential, so his continued evolution is important. I’d really like to see them give him a shot to close out a game or two this year.

The club has no real returning lefty option next year. They don’t really have any super close in the system unless they quickly decide one of their hard throwing youngsters is moving to the pen, that is always a possibility, but I don’t see it without a change of plan for someone.

It would be really good if a lefty reliever or two were the biggest items on their shopping list and that they’d go out and get it quick.

Use the rest of this year to see what guys like Dennis Santana and Hunter Stratton can give you. Have a little foresight about which starters could and maybe should transition.

Use the struggles and get meaningful auditions and opportunities for higher leverage out of the way where you can. The fewer guys who enter the season as questions the better.

3. Catcher

Joey Bart has done more than enough to cement his place on this team and assure the team will tender him an offer and take him to Arbitration. This isn’t even a worthwhile question to ponder at this point. Even if this is just an insanely hot streak, he’s done more in MLB than any other catcher they’ve tried.

No Pirates catcher has hit this many homeruns in a season since Francisco Cervelli, and folks, Joey only has around 200 Plate Appearances.

This isn’t just a guy who’s done good enough for the Pirates, this is a guy who has produced at a level that most teams in the league envy.

He doesn’t qualify for any batting title, or Silver Slugger because he’s only played in 56 games. That’s why I’m not going to start comparing him to names of players who have twice as much on their resume, I’m just going to leave it at, he’s been incredible. Not good, not decent, incredible.

As a defender, being as honest as I can be, it’s good enough to get the job done, and he’s exceptional at the very visual to fans stuff like throwing guys out, blocking balls, not getting interference calls, you know, the stuff you can really see. Framing could be better, but who cares if he’s gonna hit like this.

I won’t say he’s the starter through 202…whatever, I’ll just say he enters 2025 as the incumbent and I think it would take an act of God to change that.

Endy Rodriguez won’t be able to participate in Catching activities the rest of this season, maybe not even fully by Spring. That aspect of his game is a bit more like recovering from UCL procedure like a pitcher has to, with throwing progressions and what not. He also probably won’t hit right handed until I’d bet this season is over, but I’m guessing.

From there, all he has to do is jump right back in to facing live pitching for the first time in over a year, and learn how to do it at a level he has yet to really produce at to begin with. Feel me? I’m not saying Endy can’t do any of these things I’m concerned about, I’m just saying, man, I certainly can’t make myself expect it. Or count on it.

I’ll take it, I’ll hope for it, but I can’t plan on it.

All of this to say, Henry might still need to be a catcher, and he has his own hurdles to get over hitting at this level. He is hitting now in AAA, doing some things better, but still is going to face challenges in MLB to be sure. If I’m the Pirates, I get him back on the horse this year, and determine from there if you need to bring in a veteran, defensive type or is Jason Delay enough?

Either way, I’d want to know or at least have a better idea of where I really think Henry is both defensively and offensively.

The Pirates pitching staff may have a say here, and I’m only joking a little. Mitch Keller and Paul Skenes have both shown that at the very least they prefer a defensively minded catcher. No, I don’t think either are the types to throw a fit if Bart is just the dude.

I say get eyes on Henry up here, maybe you just decide right here and now, catcher is fine.

4. Here’s What Makes Me Mad About This

These are largely the same questions we’ve had since 2019.

The entire time Ben Cherington has been here this club hasn’t had 2 even league average outfielders, let alone center field. Bryan Reynolds has been it.

After Bryan, you really have to turn to Jack Suwinski as the second best outfielder this team has employed.

Think about that. After you’re done denying it and searching trying to prove me wrong, you’ll come back with Jack really high on your list.

That’s not ok even in a rebuild. Cause here’s the thing, how many guys have they tried that you even were excited to see? How many of them were prospects you were truly excited to get eyes on? Ji Hwan Bae? Jack? Maybe Canaan Smith-Njigba who Shelton refused to play?

Slightly intrigued by Edgar Olivares at best right? Joshua Palacios is fun, a nice little sparkplug type player but c’mon, you might as well say Ben Gamel.

That again, is not good enough even if you’re in a rebuild. Of all the outfielders they’ve trapsed through here on the waiver wire, trades, old draft picks, free agents, converted outfielders, how in the world did you not hit on one league average type player?

On top of that, Michael A. Taylor is statistically the best outfielder they’ve had here. Even in Bryan Reynolds flirtation with a Gold Glove season, Mike rates higher. That’s it.

Bae makes some exciting plays, and makes some that should be routine into adventures. De La Cruz just got here, so grace period there, Jack had good range, never caught on to the routes, doesn’t have a consistent arm.

How has a Matt Gorski or the like ever hit? You almost have to try to miss on this many guys entirely.

First base I could do the same with a parade of aging out free agents on one year deals. Move someone there, or go get someone.

These are the things I can’t deal with. Catcher, Starting Pitcher, First Base, Outfield with an emphasis on Center have all been barren for this entire regime, and just this year Starting Pitcher looks addressed.

There is nothing internal for First. Center field and Outfield could have some help with Nick Yorke or Billy Cook, and we talked about catcher already.

These holes just have to be filled, and I’m not sure you can claim next year is going to be different or better if you leave them open for prospects to just have.

5. Ke’Bryan…Sigh

I don’t know what to do about Ke’Bryan. I don’t believe this to be an effort thing, I just don’t believe he’s healthy. I also think it’s pretty clear, at his best he’ll be a “good” hitter, but that’s it. I think I’m all done expecting better to come than that. I think should he get his back right, he’ll be a better hitter than this next year, but I simply don’t think this is a guy we’re going to want in the middle of the order. He might have a hot stretch every now an again and if you wanna pop him up in the order to enjoy it for a while, sure, but most of the time this is hopefully a pretty good number 7 hitter.

What I want the Pirates to do is work with him to find a way to get him into the best position they can to stay closer to 90% for a season. Is that 4 days in the field a week? OK, let’s figure it out and work around it. Is it maybe a case where someone is willing to really look at his swing mechanics to try to eliminate some of the torque he generates? Say, that might be a good idea anyhow based on how he’s hit. Win win.

7 million isn’t a lot of money, if Ke’ has to be a part time player so we get closer to his best more often, hey, gotta do what you gotta do right? Bottom line, do something here.

8-17-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The hero local kid. An angle just about every fanbase can’t get enough of and one we’ve had several times over the years. Even if it’s an adopted son like Joey Bart who’s family has ties to the area or Isiah Kiner-Falefa who has a distant relation to Ralph Kiner who played here and arguably had more fame in New York.

Man, it’s emotional for a fan base when their story arc changes in either direction.

I’ve lived the vast majority of my life here in Western Pennsylvania, and I’m as proud as anyone. Neil Walker will always hold a special place in my heart and having personal connections to not only where he grew up, but where he played is special. Hell, my brother in law won a state championship with him in high school.

So seeing him traded for one of the worst Pirates starting pitchers in the last decade hurt.

Even as the Pirates were ultimately proven right, he really was near the end, the back was a near constant problem, he was never going to evolve into a switch hitter you feared from both sides of the plate.

I know all that, and it still hurt.

This version of the Pirates needs to be the adult in the room and see a lot of this same stuff with David Bednar.

For all the reasons I just mentioned up there talking about Walker, David has become a lot more than a baseball player to Pirates fans and he tirelessly works in the community. Again, my nephew has been to probably 5 camps with David for baseball. He’s visited their class probably 2 or 3 times, and met with them on the field at PNC after securing a bank of tickets for youth baseball players.

The Pirates reportedly planned to extend David Bednar this Spring before he developed the injury that he’d start the season nursing and their self imposed preference to not deal with contractual concerns during an injury may have just prevented the team from making a mistake.

Let me be very clear.

I’ve been told, and it’s since been reported by real journalists, the Bucs were poised to extend David. None that I’ve heard have a feel for how long of an extension we’re talking here, so let’s not act like they were about to sign him through 2037 or something, but he made 4.5 million dollars in his Arbitration 1 season, this season.

Next year he’ll be in Arbitration 2. This is a refresher because I’ve been told recently that I assume everyone understands all this stuff. If you already know, skip ahead to the asterisks.

Most players have 3 years of arbitration eligibility. There are some who get 4, I could explain why you might have 4 but it turns into a whole other family tree of team control that for now, it’s easier to just say most players have 3.

So the Pirates “have team control” of David, through 2026, via this process. Meaning the Pirates have to “tender” an offer, basically, say they want him and will go to an independent arbiter for the contract negotiation.

Both team and player enter knowing roughly what this contract will be. Both submit a number, some teams negotiate that a bit outside of the legal process, the Pirates are a “1st Offer” team. Their policy is if both sides don’t agree on the first offer it goes to arbitration. They allowed this to sour their relationship with Bryan Reynolds along the path to his contract extension, in fact it actually caused them to very technically extend Bryan before the one he’s playing under currently.

Arbitration is a process where the player thinks they’re worth more than the team or in their mind “the market”. During this process, the team, or their arbitration representative, well, they hammer the player for all the things they are and aren’t, by way of statistic comparisons and merciless evaluation or projections of regression.

Nobody likes it.

***

Ok, welcome back to those of you who didn’t need, or want an arbitration/team control refresher.

I went through all that to say, the reason you’d want to extend Bednar in my mind was really to avoid this arbitration process. I was never a proponent of extending him beyond his 2 remaining years of team control unless it was tacking on a year. I just don’t want tied to a closer for that long, especially one who didn’t emerge as some fresh faced kid with a 15 year career in front of him.

This season I’m hoping, scared the Pirates out of this train of thought.

No, I’m not talking about DFAing him, not now. I’m not even talking about trying to trade him, in fact I’m tired of this team trading low on guys.

I’m just saying, this regression could be injury related, but the numbers don’t lead me to believe that’s the case. I know injury and rustiness probably were issues at the beginning of the season, but not now. Injured people don’t usually have an increase in 4-seam fastball velocity over their career norms.

The effectiveness of his 4-seam fastball, man, that has been what’s wrong with David Bednar this year. Hitters are finding the barrel 11% of their swings.

5 blown saves versus 21 saves, and it’s felt worse than that if only because of how many times he whittled away a 2 or 3 run lead before finally sealing the deal.

8 homeruns to only 188 batters faced is alarming at best.

What I’m asking for here, is that the Pirates put all of the “Renegade”, hometown hero, great in the clubhouse stuff aside and prioritize playing and winning baseball games.

Starting now.

• Accept that right now at the very least, this isn’t an MLB closer, and you happen to employ one of the best to ever do it. Use that flexibility you paid for and decided to keep at the deadline before this collapse.
• Don’t let one player’s personal struggle continue to play out at the end of a ball game.
• If health is at all a concern, again, don’t allow one player’s personal struggle to continue to play out when the game is on the line.

Bob Nutting doesn’t involve himself in many things on the baseball side. He authorizes the budget and lets the GM make the calls on how to spend the money, until recently anyway.

Recently he’s imposed his wishes on the GM.

Bob is the reason Andrew McCutchen is back, both times. I’m not sure it makes the most baseball sense based on what this team needs, but it sure does feel warm and fuzzy.

What I fear is Nutting stepping in here and wanting to keep David Bednar the “attraction” even as he isn’t David Bednar the “All Star Closer” anymore.

I don’t “hate” David, I’m certainly not claiming he is incapable of rebounding next year, I’m simply saying, the lower back issues and various associated muscle strains in the region probably aren’t going to just stop and as popular as the hometown kid is, an ERA of almost 6.00 as an MLB closer sure isn’t going to maintain that popularity no matter how many camps he hosts.

This team needs to start focusing on ensuring they have great players, and yes, it needs to start outweighing great guys. It’s terrific when you get both, it’s also childish and incompetent to insist on it.

I could make an argument that no team should extend a closer, I think the stats will back me up for how often they fall off inexplicitly.

A team like this, that is building itself as a pitching development system, or at least that’s what they’re drafting, well they need to almost always be replacing roles like this with freshly cultivated new ones.

Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, those are the types of arms. Overflow starters who can’t crack the rotation but have huge arms. Quick flow relievers who come out of nowhere and produce need to be a thing with this org. If they do this right, you get 3-4 year peaks of guys and move on…

…even the ones who grew up here.

I think they’ll tender him, I bet he doesn’t get a raise in Arb 2, but if I’m them, or hell just the fan that I am, I truly hope they tread lightly here. My guess is if they just run through arbitration, this whole thing will sort itself out. He’ll earn more over the next two years if he earns it and let’s be real, he wants to be a Pirate about as bad as any fan wants to overlook his warts to keep him one. Free agency probably shouldn’t be scary.

If it’s interesting to both, that probably means a couple good things right?

It would mean David had 2 good years. And I’d have to imagine it would mean the Pirates had two good years in which they needed to keep him at both deadlines.

That’s a very very hopeful look forward. A future that largely I believe rests on the arm, and lower back I suppose of David Bednar.

No matter what, this season has shown me and I hope management that they can at least afford to just let this ride out. Don’t try to force this into a smart decision, let baseball tell you that.