Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Bounce Back or Bounce Out

8-5-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The deadline is over, now every team is either fully focused on next year, fully focused on positioning for this year’s playoffs or desperately trying to get into this dance. That’s the list.

When you’re in a race or slightly on the outside looking in depending on your vantage, every day has a very good chance of being an emotional directional sign. Even an off day like today can be seen as a “failure” simply by having competitive teams win while your Buccos sit idle stewing over their recent series flop.

You either have a stomach for this kind of baseball or you don’t, and that goes for players just like it does fans. It just doesn’t effect the team’s play for one side of that equation.

Lets do this!

1. Colin Holderman

About a month ago I thought Colin Holderman should have represented the Pirates at the All Star Game. He was simply incredible early on and thank God he was because for a time, he was the only thing we could trust in the back end of this pen.

Recently, not so much.

The Pirates manager has a problem and sometimes it’s simply just too much trust.

It’s not that simple of course, because sometimes, he’s been right, in fact, a lot of the time he’s been right. Just this year, Rowdy Tellez received oodles of patience when it seemed like it was the dumbest thing they could do. Now, not playing him would be insane right?

Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar received that grace, they also have track records that made the bet a fairly easy one.

Now, as we sit here at the beginning of August, you have to be willing to make big changes for the short term, even if they’re counter to everything you have believed for 3/4 of the season. If Chapman has a stretch of 3-4 games where he can’t hit the strike zone, you have to be capable of saying, ok Chappy, we can’t do this right now.

You want a manager that adjusts, but you don’t want a manager that acts like fans do either. Sincerely, a fan can watch one bad inning or at bat and let frustration boil over. A coach needs to be smarter than that.

A coach needs to know that Colin Holderman hitting 99 is a good sign his issues aren’t fatigue. He needs to know his slider isn’t getting the chases is did early on in the season, and more importantly, why. A coach needs to know his underlying stats have been predicting this coming for almost 6 weeks and started showing up against better competition 3 weeks ago.

A coach also needs his GM to recognize that because of weather and a short outing the bullpen options were critically thin and they entered that last game knowing they’d need 6 or 7 innings from Paul Skenes.

Maybe that’s a good bet, but in a pennant race, it’s a bet I wouldn’t make. Not against a team that hits like Arizona.

Colin Holderman is talented, he has great stuff. When he’s on, he’s damn near unhittable, when he isn’t, well, he’s a pinata.

I actually appreciate Derek Shelton’s patience, it’s worked out more than it hasn’t, but there’s a difference when coaching for the overall picture as opposed to the short term twists and turns of a pennant race.

In 1992, the best manager in my lifetime and recent Hall of Fame inductee Jim Leyland was faced with a real problem. his team was good, but the back of his bullpen wasn’t consistent. He was forced into believing in and using Stan Belinda who struggled all through September where he pitched 14.1 innings, surrendering 15 hits and 7 earned runs.

Who did Jimmy put on the mound on October 14th against the Braves, yup.

When you spend an entire season with guys, you start seeing the overall guy, and what he’s done for you, even as you’ve watched them fail in the near term, you remember instead the 2 or 3 months where they repeatedly got you big outs.

It’s not an excuse, it’s just some stuff to consider. Either way, a change must be made.

2. It’s Ovahhhh!

I mean, no, it really isn’t. Just like it wasn’t last time you told me it was.

Remember the 4th of July? The Bucs lost to the Cardinals and dropped the series. They faced a 4 game set against the red hot Mets, a 3 game series in Milwaukee and on to the pathetic White Sox.

The Pirates went 7-3 and crept back to .500. Even so, after the All Star break we all knew they faced a gauntlet. So they went out and took 4 of 6 from the Phillies and Cardinals.

Now it’s completely over because they dropped two tight series against the Diamondbacks sandwiched around taking one from Houston.

Fans are gonna fan, and they’ll do it however they like. I’m just saying, with 51 games left and a game over .500, if I’m a Pittsburgh Pirate, I’m excited I get the opportunity to directly take on those I have to catch or beat.

Do what you want of course, but I have not lost faith, if only because honestly, I thought they were a .500ish team, and I still think they’re a .500ish team. They’ve done what they’ve done with large periods of ineptitude from important players like Chapman, Holderman, Bednar, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Rowdy Tellez.

They’ve done it while Oneil Cruz has rarely looked close to the beast we hoped. They’ve done it with Henry Davis completely bombing.

Think about what just one truly scotching week of Oneil could do for this club. Hey, it might even help them win 5 or 6 of 7 some week.

Maybe it is over. History tells me other teams will hit their own speedbumps too.

I’ll watch regardless, I guess I’ll see you in a few weeks if they turn it around, if not have a great Steelers season.

3. Don’t Sell Yourself on Something…

The reason I don’t like projecting out a rotation or lineup out for a couple years isn’t because I or you might wind up looking stupid, it’s because when you do things like that you don’t leave room to be surprised.

I just had someone ask me the other day, and I’ll paraphrase to protect the innocent… What does next year’s rotation look like? Skenes, Keller, Jones, Chandler and Oviedo?

Now, how could that be I’m thinking?

Did Bailey Falter die? Did Luis Ortiz hurt himself doing dishes? Is Chandler truly ahead of Harrington? Oviedo will be ready to start the season?

What happened to Braxton Ashcraft or Mike Burrows?

Guys, they have too many pitchers, but you’re watching this year how “too many” doesn’t always stay that way.

What this type of thing sets up is having the red ass when things don’t go how you thought they might. I mean, after all the crying and complaining we did last offseason about signing more starting pitching, all the dire predictions about how derelict of duty the front office was for believing Bailey Falter might be something, all I’m saying is, let’s look at the list of possible help and just hope between the group they put together another really strong season.

Predicting crap is half the reason we fight online. Someone says they think Ashcraft will be in the rotation next year, and you can see there’s no way that happens unless someone currently in it, well, isn’t. Boom, stupid, pointless fight.

When someone poor wins the lottery, they tend to spend it quickly and within a year they’re back at the Giant Eagle buying more tickets hoping lighting strikes the same spot twice.

When someone rich wins the lottery, they donate half of it to charity to handle the taxes and store the rest away to let the interest double their winnings.

Pirates fans have no idea how to handle having a glut of pitching and therefore they think they have so much they can and even should trade 2 or 3 of them. I’m just suggesting it might be smarter to just bank what you have, open your mind and let the rotation in 2024 and beyond take shape all on it’s own.

Tommy John strikes often, and so does regression.

Good players come along and push aside players who used to be good or were above average contributors. It’s hard for fans who get attached, but just looking at the rotation options, I’ll go ahead and predict right now, someone you decided is a lock will be replaced by someone you guarantee can’t make it in the next 2 years.

Enjoy!

I’d recommend that’s easier if you just let it come to you and seek comfort in the options over the expected.

4. Derek Shelton’s Record is a Silly Way to Judge Him

The guy was hired to oversee losing. Sure, they wanted him to get them to play hard and to get the most out of what he was provided, but everyone knew what he was working with.

My first car was a Subaru Justy. I bought it for $250 dollars, it was a standard, missing the driver’s seat which I replaced at a junk yard, 5th gear was stripped and the clutch cable had so much play in it, to get it started on a hill you’d be better off sticking your foot out the door like Fred Flintstone.

I was the first in my friend group to get a car, so everywhere we went, we piled in that piece of junk and went. My friends would often make fun of how I drove but they all knew it was in part because I wasn’t staying under 50 MPH because it was what I wanted to do, I did it because I had no 5th gear, AND the damn thing would overheat if you got it going faster than that for more than a couple minutes.

In other words, they didn’t assume I was a terrible driver for life, they knew I was a victim of circumstance.

4 years of losing is a lot of stink to ever truly wash off, but to me, there’s almost nothing worth learning about Derek Shelton from 2020-2022 and beyond that, he’s had some actual talent to play with.

I haven’t seen nearly enough to think he’s as bad as the vast majority of fans do. Don’t worry, I’m not trying to convince you, believe whatever you want, I’m just saying, THIS is why I don’t camp on.

5. Is it Time for Henry Davis to Get Another Look?

In 156 Indianapolis at bats, Henry has 11 home runs, and an OPS of 1.024.

Joey Bart has taken hold of the starting catcher gig here in Pittsburgh, the Pirates just went out and got a starting Right Fielder, Henry hasn’t played first base and even if he had, Rowdy has been really good.

Andrew McCutchen has struggled for a while so maybe there are some at bats available as a DH.

Now, one thing you really don’t want to do is bring up a 1:1 who struggled so mightily you sent him back down and give him sporadic chances. If he comes back, you have to give him a real shot, I’m having a hard time believing during this stretch is when we should try it.

Don’t get me wrong, if this is real, this team could use someone swinging a hot bat, one that’s capable when he’s going of taking over games. How long do you try if you do it?

If your answer is 3-4 games, I have news for you, that’s barely enough time in MLB to pick the right belt to wear with your uniform let alone overcome a terrifyingly slow start.

Part of me thinks we’ll be looking at an injury of some sort as the most realistic way this kid gets another shot in 2024. Grandal gets a whammy in his hammy, yeah, you might go with Davis. Even then, they’d have to have a real plan for getting him at bats, Bart isn’t just going to become a backup, if only for the pitching staff.

I’m happy as hell he’s doing well down there, but I’m also afraid his window for getting a foothold in 2024 might have closed.

I also can’t say for sure that Billy Cook or even Nick Yorke might be a better call.

Sure would be nice to get a punch in the arm from an unexpected source.

Henry sure as hell has the plausible ability to do so, I just see it as a bit of a risk almost no matter how they approach it.

Snakebit: Pirates/Diamondbacks Series Takeaways

8/5/24 By Drew Cagle – @cagles_bagels on X

This past weekend’s series against the Arizona Diamondbacks was filled with ups and downs, slugfests, and low-scoring affairs. Arizona prevailed in the finale by a 6-5 final, serving a critical blow to the Pirates’ postseason hopes and dropping them to 56-55. With only 51 games left to play, time is winding down on the Bucs’ playoff push. Though it was only a 3-game set, there were multiple items that came to the forefront of this series.

Deadline Dynamos

Trade deadline acquisitions Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Bryan De La Cruz look like the right pieces to help this team compete. Not that I’m breaking any news, but both have slid into the top of the lineup rather quickly, and made their presence felt. Kiner-Falefa to the tune of a double, triple, 2 RBIs, and a run scored on Sunday. De La Cruz has been much colder at the plate, going 1-for-14 with a single RBI in his time with Pittsburgh. His glove has been decent at worst, and his arm in right field is a cut above any other outfielder on the team. I have confidence that his bat will heat up. After all, he’ll be starting nearly every day as the team’s right fielder.

High-leverage bullpen changes 

Sunday’s losing pitcher, Colin Holderman, has an 18.90 ERA over his last four appearances. That won’t cut it. To me, this was a final straw that it’s likely that one or both of two things is going on with Holderman. One, this isn’t just a bad game or two, it’s a trend. A trend that can’t be what a setup man of a playoff team puts out there. Two, he may be injured, and should be dealt with accordingly if so.

For the frustrated fans calling for him to be designated for assignment: I get it. He needs to be better. The Pirates need him to be a part of a bullpen trio with David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman to get where they want to go. But I’d ask those fans: do you believe that this is just what Holderman is at this point? Is the sub-1.00 ERA reliever who many (including me) were calling to receive All-Star buzz this same season, “dead to you?”

I say all that to say that Kyle Nicolas should be the 7th-inning guy moving forward, with Chapman handling the 8th. If Nicolas begins to falter, or if Holderman regains his form, I’m open to switching things back. But if the Pirates are serious about contending for the postseason, it’s very difficult to see them continuing to trot out a scuffling Holderman in high-leverage scenarios.

Joey Bart, catcher of the future?

I’m ready to have the conversation about Joey Bart as the Pirates’ starting catcher for Opening Day 2025. He could be the long-term answer behind the plate, especially if Henry Davis isn’t able to figure things out himself. Key word: could. I’m not committing major salary to him, but I’ve seen enough of a sample size this season to be a believer. The 27-year old has brought a power element to the Pirates offense that has lacked it for much of the season. An .854 OPS is nothing to take lightly, and he’s a capable defender (above-average caught stealing rate of 23%). Endy Rodriguez, Jason Delay, and Davis will no doubt be competing to be the Pirates’ backstop, but Bart continues to take steps towards locking down that position for 2025.

Oneil Cruz will be fine

I wouldn’t have blamed you if you criticized Cruz’s attention to detail after Wednesday’s 3-error game in Houston. But Friday’s game, let alone the entire series, was proof that you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to Cruz. A 5-for-5 showing where he peppered line drives around the diamond (three over 95 mph) showcased his hit tool (that was also absent against the Astros). While the bad can be pretty rough with Oneil, the good can be a top 15-20 player in baseball. You play that player through their struggles, and let them figure it out.

This team’s resilience is infectious

Friday night’s game may not have ended in the Buccos’ favor, but it was impossible to ignore the fight that the Pirates showed. Battling back from a 5-nothing deficit before taking a single at bat, then coming back to take a 7-6 lead in the sixth. This is nothing new for this team. They have 21 comeback wins, including 4 ninth-inning comebacks. Even if 2024 does not bear fruit in terms of the postseason, Pittsburgh can be proud to have a team that never says die, even when they may be outmatched in talent.

Steel City Pirates Q&A – Tough Series, Tough Questions

8-4-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Crushing loss today, and a tough series in general, but nobody said it would be easy. The reactionary nature of a pennant race can cause daily angina if you let it, and so many fans do, I need to pull one of these together on the regular just to remind myself that thinking is still going on out there.

Thank God, Buddha, Baby Jesus, whoever for each and every one of you.

Lets Go.

Question 1

Could you see the Pirates trading Hayes this offseason? – James Littleton

Yeah, I could see it, but the way they structured his contract, he actually got a pay decrease this year, from his peak pay of 10 million to the 7 million it’ll be through 2027, and on to his 8 million per it’ll be through 2029. That’s 37 million dollars from the beginning of 2025 through the end of 2029.

He has an option year too, but who cares, these are the figures that matter.

Now, it would certainly be selling low. You’d be selling a guy with a fairly public chronic back problem, who has struggled to turn his exit velocity into hits, let alone power with a stellar glove at a power position.

To a team that spends money, that’s nothing. Even if he winds up being something like a super utility on a team that uses him 2-3 times a week. To a team like Pittsburgh, unfortunately, 7 million needs to produce.

I think you’d be trading him low, and you’re probably lying to yourself if you think you can do better for the same money on the open market. In fact, Isiah Kiner-Falefa only makes a bit over 6 next year, 7 this year. Despite his offensive outburst this year and obvious defensive flexibility, very similar players.

So, long way of saying, I could see it, but I don’t think it’s all that likely, and more than that, I’m not sure it returns anything super helpful to the short term. I’d advise at least hoping he bounces back next year, it’s not like a long term 3B is pushing….yet.

Question 2

Any concerns with Holderman as of late? Would you consider possibly giving others like Kyle Nicolas go into his 7th inning role more often? – JGor493

Prophetic as my man asked this before today’s game. It also illustrates, this has been an issue so if you’re complaining today, it’s not just because you have a sore ass from this one outcome.

Yes, of course I’m concerned about Colin Holderman. Just as I was concerned about Aroldis Chapman, and David Bednar, and Carmen Mlodzinski and Kyle Nicolas and Dennis Santana when they started with and or ran smack dab into stretches where they looked like they had no chance of getting outs.

Patience hasn’t always been the answer either. Chapman needed to move down on the leverage chart, and once he showed he was finding something, boom, right back in the final innings. Holderman has the stuff, and for the vast majority of 2024 he was the only guy you could count on.

I say that to remind, it’s in there, even as a team in a playoff chase can’t afford to drop games just waiting for it to show up again.

They’re either going to have to pop him in blowout games, or in the middle up 2 or 3 until such a time as he shows he’s ok. They could fake IL him. They could option him. My guess is without him being him, this bullpen is short someone they really want to be part of the ramp to Bednar, something they don’t feel good being without.

He’s been bad, especially in his past 15 outings, but they’ve already started using Nicolas in his place, just yesterday when he went 2. That’s why he wasn’t available today.

Mlodzinski being out takes another option. Beeks is kinda not a fit when the matchup isn’t right. Chapman would have been 3 straight if he went today. Santana went multiples yesterday. Short outings the first two games set this up and made it feel more like a choice than it really was.

Stratton going a second inning might have been smart, but the last time he did that, he hurt himself and missed over a month, so I can see avoiding it as it’s not something he has ever done much of.

Bullpens morph all the time. So much so that you always feel like your fixing, tweaking, shuffling it. Any day of the week I can probably tell you 2 names I don’t want to see and I’m not exaggerating.

Fully healthy and humming, I love the bullpen, but they’ve struggled to get them all rowing in the same direction the entire season.

Short term, yeah, they need to minimize him and accentuate Nicolas. Longer term, I expect Colin Holderman to get back to the unhittable thing he looks like when he’s on.

Question 3

Our starters “seem” to be the best Pirate rotation I’ve seen (1970 I became a fan). How does the rotation compare statistically to those from the past? – Mike Teti

Sadly for so so many reasons, I’m not sure how the hell you’d begin to compare. Like, am I just taking the best 5 from every rotation I look at? Am I looking post deadline only? What if healthy scenarios?

Should I consider that starters in no way do what starters did 15-20, hell 40 years ago? Stats alone probably point back to one of those 70’s teams.

The best one I can remember is really the Pirates in 2013 with AJ Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton. I have to say, I feel better about Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, and Marco Gonzales.

I’m a little younger than you so my consciousness doesn’t really start until the mid 80’s. The Doug Drabek, John Smiley, Zane Smith, Bob Walk, Randy Tomlin rotation members make up a very top heavy group whereas today’s I honestly feel terrific about trotting 4 of the 6 out there at any given time.

Both of the “old” rotations would crush today in ERA. The league itself would. WHIP however, today has a huge edge, strikeouts too.

The game has changed too much for me to 1:1 compare, but this is the best one I’ve seen I can say that. I mean, the 1991 Staff had 3 guys who tossed more than 200 innings, and their 4th starter had 175. See my problem?

2024 Pirates starters have a 3.49 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and an opposition batting average of .246, now that wraps in everyone who started, so Woodford, Perez, Josh Fleming, you get what I’m saying. This is where those innings counts come into play, they have a lot more guys who’ve started than those older teams. In other words, if I just lineup up today’s 5 best vs yesterday’s, these numbers probably pop even more.

Regardless, let’s do this right.

2024 Pirates starters have a 3.49 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .246
2013 Pirates starters have a 3.50 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .243
1991 Pirates starters have a 3.27 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .260
1979 Pirates starters have a 3.58 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .257

1979 Bucco Starters hurled 1020.2 innings.
1991 Bucco Starters hurled 1005.0 innings.
2013 Bucco Starters hurled 925.0 innings.
2024 Bucco Starters hurled 600.1 innings…so far, I mean their story isn’t fully written yet. If they average 5.2 innings per the rest of the way that’s another 280-ish which will still leave them far shorter on the volume.

that’s about the best I can do Mike, but man, fun question to investigate and think about, thanks!

Question 4

With the likes of Jones, Skenes and possibly Ortiz needing to have their innings limited at some point during the next 6 or so weeks to have them for post season consideration (not trying to put the cart before the horse, but the odds are in our favor) what do we know right now about the guys in AAA that have either been battling back from injuries (Burrows) to newer Members of the 40 (Ashcraft) as examples – feel free to use others and is there any chance Bubba Chandler teases us much like they did Roansy a few years ago? – Jw Sanders

OK, gotta answer this one in stages. First, Ortiz is fine, he tossed 143.1 last year and currently has 84. I doubt they’re even thinking about him much.

Jones has just been “managed” my friend. When he comes back they won’t just open the throttle, but it’s going to feel like it. After an IL trip like that, the season totals tend to readjust and that’s on top of the fact he still has close to 60 to give before he even reaches where he was last year. Won’t take much to make that stretch and they planned to exceed that anyhow, now with the mid season rest he’ll be able to go more.

Skenes is at 108, in the preseason I was told they’d likely be comfortable with 175 this year and we’re probably fine there too especially since they’re still working on a 6 man rotation much of the time.

Now, more help from the minors? Sure. Burrows and Ashcraft have the best shot, both of which I’d imagine help in the pen if at all. A playoff race isn’t really a place for rookies unless you’re forced into it or already used them earlier in the season.

Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler are both rocketing up through the system, but I can’t see them popping their 40-man cherry this season, there’s just, well, let me put it this way, if they have enough injuries that we consider it, they’re probably out of it and you’d not do it in that case just because you’d be creating roster issues for no reason.

The Pirates managed Skenes early, Jones in the middle and Ortiz all season by pitching him out of the pen. Now it’s go time.

Question 5

Is Joey Bart now in the conversation for catcher of the future? And if he’s potentially the guy going forward, what does that mean for Rodriguez and Davis? – Nick Cammuso

I know you don’t tend to trust him, but Ben Cherington said as much Nick. He has 3 years of arbitration, I can’t see a world where he isn’t on this team next year. Just can’t.

As to Endy, well, as you know, he already works out elsewhere.

Could he catch next year, sure. Could Henry? Sure. I really mean it when I say this, if the Pirates are struggling to find a place to play 3 bats that are producing, I fail to see the problem.

If the Pirates plan to move Henry, well, they haven’t yet this year. Doesn’t mean they won’t, just means they haven’t.

I think we’ll head to camp with Bart as the incumbent. I for one hope that he looks like holding back the other two is near impossible.

Ben Cherington also said catching and batting right handed would be the last things Endy had to check off. Catching won’t happen this year. I’d look at him as a recovering starting pitcher in a way, until he can handle the volume of throws behind the dish he could very well be stuck at 1B or DH and that could stretch into the season a bit, even if only a little bit.

Question 6

With the emergence of Bart behind the plate, could see see this for 2025:
C: Bart / Delay
1B: Endy
OF: Davis
Utilizes Henry’s arm and protects Endy’s surgically repaired arm. – Ed Fleming

Similar to what Nick asked really. Again, I think Endy has not only some recovery to do, but some proving himself too. Let’s not forget, in AAA last year he hit .268 and in the Bigs he only managed .220. I love the kid, think he’s going to be a hell of a player, but this isn’t a team that can afford to pretend Endy coming back is like Carlos Correa coming off the IL. He’s a kid we were excited about, but also a kid who has work to do before we pretend he’s an upgrade over Rowdy/Joe/Davis/Bart, you feel me?

As for Delay, I can’t see them carrying 4 catchers on their 40-man unless they decide one of them isn’t one anymore.

Question 7

Fans talk, but are the Pirates having any serious discussions about moving Hayes to another position? – Voice from the Graves

Not that I’ve heard. I think he could do it I just don’t think they’re going to want to create a hole where there isn’t one. I also get the impression, they don’t think they’re seeing the Ke’Bryan Hayes we’ll see next year. I’m equally sure they thought he’d look better this season.

As I said to James in the first question, I think we’re just in for another season minimally here because if he isn’t a starter, I’m not sure which position we think he’s hitting well enough to man. If it’s Short stop, well, they’d still have to find a place for Cruz, and I’m not anxious to ask him to throw farther.

So, no, I don’t think anything serious.

Question 8

Player comps from the last Pirates playoff team to the current team? Is Reynolds a Neil Walker type but better? Who is the next Josh Harrison? Is Skenes the new Cole? Just thought it would be fun to compare and look back. – Patrick Bradford-Kenney

Hmmm

I don’t think this team is where that one was, not yet.

Harrison would be Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Walker maybe Cruz
Cutch probably lines up with Reynolds the best.
Yeah, I’m struggling here, it’s a different team, much stronger on the mound than the field and despite having a good staff, it’s really hard to compare anyone to Skenes or Jones, I guess I’d say Keller is your AJ.

Hard one for me. I guess I just don’t see them as comparable entirely. I’d probably have better luck if I went with 2012 or even 2011 to line it up better, but I just don’t think it works well. The outfield was a strength, our outfield is a weakness, even now.

There are a lot of kids coming still. Cook and Yorke, Ashcraft, Burrows, Harrington, Chandler, Peguero still could factor in.

Let me revisit this next year. Hold me to it ok?

Question 9

Is there a chance that Henry starts seeing reps at 1B given the emergence of Bart. Any chance they extend Bart?
How many innings do you think Skenes, Jones and Falter are stretched to by the end of the season? Season total.- Dave Thomas

I think I covered the catching stuff, but one part of this I think I have to cover. Joey Bart has 3 years of arbitration. He’ll be dirt cheap next year. There’s no reason to even consider extending him, yet.

Falter threw 130.2 innings in 2023, he has 95 now, I’d bet they had 150 targeted, providing they actually thought we’d still be wanting to use him at this point in the season.

Skenes could probably hit 175, or more depending on how they’ve evaluated. Ben Cherington already mentioned that the club is changing how they evaluate his use moving forward.

Starter Spotlight: Go Full Nelson

8-4-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Chance today for a BIG series win after two VERY different games thus far. Pirates will send out rookie ace Paul Skenes against second year starter, Ryne Nelson.

Nelson had a rough first full MLB season in Arizona (5.31 ERA and 24 home runs in 144 innings pitched) but has shown improvement thus far this year, with a 4.53 ERA through 105.1 innings pitched and only 10 long balls in that span.

Nelson has posted some reverse splits this season with righties slashing .316/.357/.469 compared to a line of .246/.295/.440 from lefties.

Nobody has been hitting Nelson lately as he pitched 37.1 innings in July with a 2.41 ERA striking out 33 batters in that span with only 8 free passes.

Looking at his pitch mix, Nelson has a fastball-heavy approach: mid-90s 4-seam, and low-90s cutter with a low-80s changeup mainly against lefties and a mid-80s slider as his third pitch when facing righties.

The fastball has been his main strikeout pitch (59 of his 79 Ks this season) with a surprising 20.2% whiff rate on the offering and a .325 wOBA but the cutter (.371) and changeup (.399) have both been hit at a higher clip.

Nelson is going to fill up the strike zone. His 5.8% walk rate ranks 20th among all qualified starting pitchers. Bucs bats will want to attack Nelson early in counts as he has an OPS of .719 in 0-1 counts and .791 in 1-0 counts, and also a .750 OPS first time through the order (compared to .528 in the 2nd trip around).

Pick a spot. Pick a pitch. Jump on Nelson and get a series W.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Climb Every Montgomery

8-3-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

From crushing defeat to epic comeback to frustrating defeat again, Pirates will look to avoid losing another series to Arizona today. With Mitch Keller on the bump, you feel pretty good about your chances facing southpaw Jordan Montgomery.

A spring training signing for Arizona, Montgomery had an excellent season split between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers, posting a 3.20 ERA across 188.2 regular season innings before improving further with a 2.90 ERA in 31 postseason frames.

Unfortunately, that run of success hasn’t translated in his move to the desert as Montgomery currently holds a 6.51 ERA in his first 74.2 innings this season. He has allowed 4 of more runs in 6 of his 15 starts this year and has posted an ERA above 7 in each of the past three months.

Among pitchers with at least 50 plate appearances against, Montgomery’s changeup ranks 7th worst with both his curve and his sinker ranking as the 6th worst according to run value. In fact, his overall pitching run value of -20 is the WORST in all of MLB.

That said, there are still some things Montgomery does well as he elicits a well above average chase rate while avoiding barrels at an equally excellent rate.

Looking at his arsenal, Montgomery has the aforementioned low-90s sinker/4-seam, high-70s curve and low-80s changeup. He typically works low in the zone but climbs the ladder and runs the fastball high on occasion.

As you could probably surmise, this pitch arsenal have all fared poorly in both the face value and expected metrics but the changeup has been by far the LEAST effective, generating 4 of the 9 home runs surrendered in just 43 batted balls, leading to an oSLG of .604.

His sinker has also been hit hard and often with the highest xBA (.341) and highest wOBA (.436) with the lowest whiff rate (13.4%).

Right handed hitters have especially been able to pummel Montgomery, posting a .339/.390/.545 slash line over 283 plate appearances this season against the veteran southpaw.

Stay within your zone against Montgomery. He only succeeds when he gets chases and many members of this team have a good feel for what is or isn’t a strike.

Pick a pitch, pick a spot and punch Montgomery. Get Mitch some early run support and even up the series.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Oneil Cruz isn’t Perfect, but He’s Nowhere Near the Pirates Biggest Issue Either

8-2-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

When a baseball team starts looking more good than bad, even if only by slightly, the microscope tends to start being trained on guys who used to be almost untouchable.

It’s been hard to complain about Oneil Cruz because even when he isn’t producing, every at bat presents an opportunity to impact the game. He can be 0-4 entering the 9th and he’s still probably one of the guys you want up there with the game on his bat.

Oneil is 25 years old and he was originally signed by the Dodgers back in 2015. I know by now everyone knows how he became a Pirates player, acquired in exchange for Tony Watson, but I really want to stress how long he’s been at this whole becoming a professional baseball player thing.

He progressed fairly normally, and remember when he was coming up there were short season Single A level teams, so he had to roll through West Virginia too.

Next to nobody thought he’d stick at short stop. This was a kid who shot from 6′ 1″ to 6′ 6″ in a Summer. He’d played SS, and his growth spurt gave people pause but he was insistent that he wanted to try to stick there.

It was a story every year thereafter. Would this kid stick there? Nobody that tall sticks there, right?

And in my mind anyway, it never became something they felt strongly enough about to move him because while he makes errors he also makes plays nobody else in the organization possibly could. The good side always at least balanced the scales with the down side, and nobody who could do even 75% of what he does ever emerged to push him aside.

His defense is almost like his strikeouts. Both can be ugly and both can make him look at times like a guy who simply doesn’t belong at short stop or the middle of the lineup. Neither have ever bee able to outweigh the good side of what he brings.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not here to tell you his defense or his strikeouts are things you should just ignore. I’m certainly not saying they aren’t an issue. Ultimately he’s a good player, actively being held back from every moving to great because he has these 2 things that prevent him from getting over the top.

So let’s break this thing into some categories and discuss it through those buckets.

Criticizing Cruz

Before I get into this one too deep, let me start here, there are actual terrible people in the world. I know, shocker right?

Some people really are racists and they for whatever reason have decided Latin players are dumb, lazy, don’t care, and they almost assign these things to them like it’s their job to prove they AREN’T any of those as opposed to starting out with the assumption all that crap is false.

There are right wingers in this country who probably really do want to start a Civil War, and there are left wingers in this country who probably really do want to completely change to Socialism.

The vast majority of people though, they don’t think like this. Certainly not in these extremes. Someone saying that Cruz looks “aloof” in the field after making a mistake, well, I’m sorry, that doesn’t automatically make them racist, it makes them someone who can’t understand for the life of them why you’d laugh after dropping a pop up or making a bad throw. Don’t look now but some of his teammates don’t really enjoy it either.

So “why is he smiling? He just made an error” to some, I think unfairly, equals, why does this dumb Dominican have to act like his mistake is funny, F him and all Dominicans.

Bottom line, sometimes it’s just a frustrated fan, who expects more from a guy who is supposed to be one of their team’s best players. You can tell the difference if you’re honest but how would you tell everyone how awesome you are online if you didn’t point out something that has a chance to be bad. It helps if you don’t already have your bristle up and mind made up that it’s all over the place and rampant.

He deserves to get criticized. We need to be able to let it happen. We need to stop making fans afraid to even approach it so they don’t get put in a group they have nothing to do with.

I have said Henry Davis is a guy who is trying too hard, looks like he’s thinking too much in the batter’s box. Essentially thinks he can try his way into things that need to come as second nature.

Nobody called me racist. I wonder why. Now say the same things about Cruz, wait 10 minutes and read all about just how racist and ignorant you are, you dog whistling a-hole.

We have to stop this crap, and not just in baseball. All we’re creating is completely locked out “sides” to damn near every issue where you only speak openly to those you know agree.

I’ll step back from the pulpit now, but know this, Cruz is a lot of things, stupid and uncaring aren’t two of them. He takes this stuff hard, even if he doesn’t make the “right” face when it happens on the field.

Does this look like a kid who’s OK with how he performed on Wednesday night?

I believe in you, we can do this, let’s be adults and talk baseball without trying to have it indicate who you’re voting for shall we?

Why Not Move Him Now?

20 errors isn’t fun, especially at a premium position defensively on a team built on the strength and efficiency of their pitching.

But…

You don’t truly want to see this kid moved to a new position in-season. Nor would the team consider it seriously.

Cruz is an athlete and he probably could play several other positions but not without training. Training that would eat into his time to improve and maximize his offensive capabilities.

I’m going to use a new player to illustrate this a bit. Brian De La Cruz has been in the league since 2021, in that time he played 370 games in the outfield, 247 in Left, 88 in Right, and 73 in Center, a seasoned MLB outfielder right? Can we agree there?

He has a big arm, can make the throws from everywhere.

Still, what did I hear from team officials? Yup, you’re right, there is at least concern about him moving to Right Field at PNC Park. The angles, the chain link bounces, the non-existent foul territory, all of it.

So if you play for the Pirates and they want to try you in the outfield, with PNC Park’s dimensions, they’re going to try to stick you in Right. Left is huge, Center is harder anywhere, and Right while tricky, offers the least scary place to give it a shot. I don’t see them doing this during a playoff run.

Could they use some of their superior fielders and have Cruz DH a bit more? Probably. I love Andrew McCutchen but if he needs to sit against right handed pitchers, OK. I’m just to the point where I think just about every way I could go about getting his glove off the field only help marginally and that supposes we go from an error a week pace to theoretical zero.

Not to mention, now you have to sit Cutch, and while he too is far from the perfect DH, he’s also still very likely one of the best 9 hitters on their roster. And no, Andrew in the field isn’t a thing, and it’s not the team being weak, it’s Andrew not being capable of recovering from what it does to him physically.

Lastly, He’s played 184 games at SS at the MLB level, the equivalent of a full season of baseball. A .948 Fld%, 38 Errors. He’s also played a total of 195 games with 806 Plate Appearances, more than a standard MLB season of course but not by much.

His 162 game average looks like this right now, 670 PA, 30 2B, 30 HR, 96 RBI, a .242 AVG, .755 OPS, and an OPS+ of 111.

People, this isn’t the Greek tragedy we’re making it out to be. If any player ever screamed be patient, I’m not sure you’ll find one louder than Cruz.

Thing is, at 25, best case scenario is he sticks at SS for the next several years and is ultimately moved in an effort to keep his body right. Eventually you’ll get your wish, and then you can crow all you like that you were right way back when.

Who Would Play SS Better Right Now?

Better? Meaning fewer errors?

Lots of guys. Jared Triolo, Alika Williams, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, but after that, anyone else would be just as much of a bet.

Out of this group none of them have his range or arm. I said less errors, not superior fielder in every way. More sure handed? Yup, I can find that. Less prone to compounding mistakes into a trainwreck of mistakes? Yup, I’d put money on all 4 for that.

Point is, if your only goal is to improve the defense and not worry about the bat, you can do it.

But who the hell would do it?

Conclusion

Oneil Cruz earns criticism because more is expected out of him than other players. You can’t practice whataboutism because there are very few players who line up with him. Certainly none on this team.

He’s playing his first complete season in MLB, following an almost completely lost to injury season. An injury, he’s still not 100% back to normal from.

The strikeouts are a problem, the inconsistency is too. His glove leaves much to be desired, but he’s been better than most want to admit.

Cruz is larger than life, and he’ll always be someone who draws attention to himself. Yes, because he sometimes acts silly, or aloof, but also because he’s a physical freak capable of doing things 99% of the league can’t.

You don’t look at a team like this and presume you can afford to just flippantly replace what he does.

  1. They won’t pay for anyone established who is capable
  2. His bat has a premium ceiling and happens to be performing above MLB average by a good measure near his floor
  3. The Pirates don’t have anyone making this an even interesting conversation

As your team improves, try to resist the urge to start pretending you can swap out an affordable player that does what he does, you and more importantly they probably can’t.

Starter Spotlight: What the Pfaadt?

8-2-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Didn’t we JUST do this?

Alright, run it back!

Back in Pittsburgh to welcome the SCORCHING Diamondbacks, the Pirates will get a rematch with Brandon Pfaadt – who came out victorious despite allowing 5 runs off 7 hits through 6 innings in the game last Saturday.

Pfaadt worked mostly fastball/sweeper pitch mix in that matchup, with his 4-seam/sinker netting just 3 whiffs in 21 swings compared to 6 in 13 against the sweeper.

He saw a spike in his velocity with his fastballs sitting above 94 and his sweeper at 85.1, which had some stark contact rates.

The in-zone contact rate on the sweeper was 100% but outside of it was 0% so hitters will want to seek some elevated sweepers before they drop or hang on the heat for success against Pfaadt again.

While he’s been VERY GOOD both at home (3.52 ERA in 61.1 innings) and during the day (2.50 ERA, 50.1 innings), he’s been the opposite away from Chase Field (4.29 ERA in 65 innings) and at night (4.86 ERA through 76 innings).

It’s a battle of attrition with Pfaadt as he has become much more hittable the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, spiking his ERA considerably over the first time through.

Bucs will look to wear him down with long, patient at-bats early but stay on heat and attack when opportunity arises. Get an early series lead and get a game back in this playoff race.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Diamondbacks (58-51) at Pirates (55-53)

8-2-24 – By Michael Castrignano– – @412DoublePlay on X

Heading back home after a solid road trip, the Pirates will look to gain ground on one of the teams whom they just faced and who still sits just ahead of them in the playoff race in the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona has been on a TEAR lately, winning 17 of 25 games in July – including 7 of their last 8 – and shows no signs of slowing down. On the other hand, the Pirates have done well this month (winning 15 of 25), added some critical offensive pieces via trade this past week and still has a rotation which is among the best in baseball. And that rotation matches up much better this time around against the Snakes. 

8/2
Diamondbacks – Brandon Pfaadt (R) –5-6, 126.1 IP, 3.92 ERA, 115 Ks/27 walks, 1.11 WHIP
Pirates – Luis Ortiz (R) – 5-2, 78.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 63 Ks/24 walks, 1.14 WHIP

8/3
Diamondbacks – Jordan Montgomery (L) –7-5, 74.2 IP, 6.51 ERA, 48 Ks/27 walks, 1.69 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 10-5, 128.1 IP, 3.30 ERA, 114 Ks/34 walks, 1.21 WHIP

8/4
Diamondbacks – Ryne Nelson (R) –8-6, 105.1 IP, 4.53 ERA, 79 Ks/26 walks, 1.36 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 6-1, 80.2 IP, 1.90 ERA, 103 Ks/16 walks, 0.90 WHIP

Diamondbacks:
Eugenio Suárez – After starting the season with a 68 wRC+ and .196/.279/.312 slash line over 315 plate appearances through the end of June, Suarez had one of the best months in baseball: .333/.398/.733 line with 10 home runs over 103 July plate appearances. Definitely a bat to watch out for this weekend.

Pirates:
Joey Bart – Bart has slowly transitioned into being the C1 for the Pirates once more with a BIG home run in the Astros series, part of a 5-for-13 series and another in an excellent month of production from the backstop. Bart posted a 130 wRC+ over 67 July plate appearances with a .276/.358/.466 slash line. Not bad, Bart.

Diamondbacks:
Paul Sewald – Sewald allowed a single earned run over 16.2 innings in May and June but surrendered 12 over 10 innings in July, blowing 4 saves in that time. This ineffectiveness likely spurred the management to acquire A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro to provide other options at the back-end of the pen but something to keep an eye on this weekend.

Pirates:
Oneil Cruz – I hate to pile on but MAN, was his series in Houston ROUGH as he went 1-for-13, struck out 9 times and committed 5 errors – including 3 costly ones in the loss on Wednesday night. That said, the concerns over Cruz’s play, both at the plate and on the awful dirt of Minute Maid Park, are overblown. He got in his head a bit and, hopefully, he can get back to blasting balls into the Allegheny again this weekend.

Key Injuries

Diamondbacks:
Christian Walker (left oblique strain) hitting the IL this past week is a DEVASTATING blow to this team’s offense. They were able to add Josh Bell from the Marlins to temporarily try to replace his production.

Pirates:
Nick Gonzales (left groin discomfort) and Carmen Mlodzinski (right shoulder strain) are two big losses suffered this past week. Additionally, Joshua Palacios (left hamstring strain) hit the IL this week and Jared Jones (right lat strain) is still working his way back.

Team Notes

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a distant cousin of Pirates legend Ralph Kiner, will likely play his first home game in Pittsburgh where a plaque bears his famous name. This sport is a weird game but man, how can you not be romantic about baseball?

Let’s Go Bucs!

Pittsburgh Pirates Rebuild: From Evolution to Revolution

8-1-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

You know those drawings of the evolution of man? Like this one…

That got me thinking about the evolution of this team.

I’ve been “covering” this team, or whatever you want to call what I do, since 2019, so it’s fair to say I’ve watched them develop this thing from the very spark of life if you will. The very primordial ooze that at the time still could have spawned more than just Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller but they are the only players who remain from my very first writings and I just went back and read some of it to recall where I was on this whole thing.

Turns out I wasn’t even sure if they’d move Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove or Adam Fraizer. I wasn’t sure how deep the cuts would go because frankly, they never told us. It became clear shortly after that, we’d be going into a full blown reconstruction. I mean I thought they’d sell off, but trying to be fair, I figured, let’s just allow them to tell the story of how they went.

So let’s have some fun, and let’s create the Pirates rebuild as if it were an installation in a History Museum.

Paleolithic -2020

The Genesis – Land of Confusion – 2020
The Pirates began this era by trading off Starling Marte who had no stomach for what he saw as a clearly close to entering rebuild franchise, for two prospects who have yet to impact the MLB level, but the team itself entering the 2020 season was wild. There were veterans held over from the last regime, and there was some belief that they might be able to just add to them. They also had some youngsters who either just started, or were about to. Hanging over everything was the realization that there was little help coming in the minors, at least not quickly.

The Darkness – Chaos
A year that was to be all about evaluation rather than rash judgement was completely removed from Ben Cherington. A full season of evaluating his club, deciding who might help long term and who might need upgraded, condensed to a 60 game sprint with rosters changing daily for precautionary reasons. The minor league schedule, completely shut down. It probably wasn’t a fair evaluation, and first move it spawned was the Josh Bell trade to Washington for two guys, one who ate some innings for a season or so.

Dawn – Mass Extinction
Taking the very little they learned from 2020 the Pirates had to decide if they’d hold onto some guys, or move on and get the system a jump start, in theory anyway. This really began with the Jameson Taillon move to the Yankees that returned 4 players, 3 of which were considered close to the league, all three are no longer with the Pirates. In January they’d also move Joe Musgrove in a 3 team deal that in part returned Endy Rodriguez and David Bednar.

Paleolithic – Team Overview
The Pirates were thin, they had Bryan Reynolds who looked like an All Star in his rookie season, Ke’Bryan Hayes who looked like a world beater in his 2020 debut. Mitch Keller was a talented question mark. There was little you could openly claim as locks to be part of this thing when it mattered. Draft selections like Travis Swaggerty, Quinn Priester and Nick Gonzales, Jared Jones, Carmen Mlodzinski offered some hope for the future.

Neolithic -2021

The Primitive – The Great Extinction 2
The Pirates played much as you’d expect them to based on where we left off in our study. And it led Ben Cherington to take arguably his biggest steps to finish the job of tearing down the team he inherited. Including moving Adam Frazier at the deadline, and they’d move on from the holdover players from the Gerrit Cole deal. It was a year of development, last chances and placeholders but they did start to solidify more spots even as they lost the majority of the season to injury for Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Neolithic – Team Overview
The team slowly built onto their unit like a limestone stalactite, Bryan Reynolds bounced back for an All Star season, his future still remained unclear as a Pirate. Mitch Keller had a brutal season but finished better than he started, still, he was anything but a sure thing to stick. Hayes missed most of the season to injury. David Bednar came on the scene and took the closer role. Kevin Newman was still living off his 2019 numbers and defensive ability. Roansy Contreras debuted. More draft selections were added, including number one overall selection Henry Davis, and Bubba Chandler. Maybe biggest of all, Oneil Cruz debuted at the end of the season.

Chalcolithic -2022

Copper Age – Hunting and Gathering
The roster was still critically thin, sure there was more young talent close to making an impact like Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Roansy Contreras, Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae. They hoped to get repeated good results from Brian Reynolds, David Bednar and steps forward from Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker. They signed some free agents to short term contracts. During this period they also sent out their gold glove winning catcher Jacob Stallings, he had played well, but he returned Zach Thompson who they’d use to start this season, Connor Scott a young outfielder and a name to bookmark for later, Kyle Nicolas. In April of this year the Pirates gave us the first indication that they planned to keep some of their talent by extending Ke’Bryan Hayes with an 8-year deal. Daniel Vogelbach was moved out for Colin Holderman.

Eneolithic – The Transitional Purge
The season went exactly as you’d expect so trading off veterans was an obvious given and they made one move here that really made an impression at the deadline, sending Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton to St. Louis for Malcom Nunez and Johan Oviedo. Oneil Cruz looked like he got a foothold, Reynolds struggled and his future with the club seemed to be growing more tenuous which really began looking like a crossroads situation. Sign Reynolds and maybe get somewhere by 2024, don’t and maybe push the whole thing back another year or even 2. The team was taking shape around him though. Jack Suwinski had issues but man could he put a charge in the ball, Hayes looked like a mainstay and his contract agreed. Bednar was unhittable, Keller took a step that felt more consequential after a trip to the bullpen. JT Brubaker felt like he had potential to be a part of the rotation for a while and Ji Hwan Bae showed some September flash. There was a bit of hope, but little more than a foundation was laid.

Bronze Age – 2023

Civilization – The Next Step
The Pirates had a question hanging over their entire off season. Would they extend Bryan Reynolds or would they move him and set the whole thing back? There would be a player demand to be traded and the entire offseason would play out before we’d find out. The Bucs traded for Connor Joe and shipped Kevin Newman in exchange for Dauri Moreta. Free agents of a bit better quality were brought in, Carlos Santana, Ji-man Choi, Andrew McCutchen, Jarlin Garcia, Vince Velasquez, and they found themselves a guy in the minor league Rule 5 Draft named Josh Palacios. Finally, late in April the Pirates extended Reynolds with an 8 year deal following a torrid start.

Cultivation – Trading Routes
A hot start showed the promise of the largely young squad and the city loved having their hero of the last run back in the form of Cutch but injury and the lack of will to build on something they didn’t believe in stunted the growth. Key injuries like JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows and Oneil Cruz were too much to truly overcome. Still, the team took a step. The regulars were starting to take hold, but the pitching looked to be in critical shape, even as they cobbled together a solid finish to the season with bullpen starts and some surprise additions like Luis Ortiz. Roansy Contreras backslid, Johan Oviedo took a big step, both of their stories would continue on. Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, an Oneil Cruz who had shown us something incredible but his injury left us wondering how he’d return. Mitch Keller, Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo all looked like pieces. David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta, Andrew McCutchen, Henry Davis debuted and at least hit a little. Things were shaping up, and they had this Paul Skenes guy they drafted too.

Iron Age – 2024

Gallo-Roman – Construction
The fans were convinced they’d seen enough in the previous season to suggest adding to the roster was ready to build on. The team continued to show they wanted to hold onto some of what they’d built so they extended Mitch Keller. Pitching staff looked very good in the bullpen, short in the rotation especially with Johan Oviedo going down in the offseason to UCL surgery, but as the Spring and season played out, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and newcomers Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez would prove to be more than enough, so much so that the Pirates dealt one more to make room than to gain prospects.

Present Day – 2024

The Pirates story is still being written.

They have very few players who the team lacks team control, they have a bunch of players who are young and on their way to proving what they are. Of course they just made some moves to fortify the roster further and strengthen the prospect pool at the top of the AAA level, specifically on the offensive side.

We’ll have to wait to see how this entry looks, but when you cut out all the moves that didn’t work, and picks who didn’t pan out and scratch out all the panning for prospect type moves they made along the way, it’s a lot easier to see the slow and steady progression.

Would I have done things differently? Probably. Would I have signed some bigger names along the way to make the trades coming back net more, probably.

But I’m not dealing with an owner so hell bent on his budget not changing despite new evidence that his GM literally, according to two sources, finalize some of his deals at the deadline until he had moved some salary off the books.

The living history of this franchise and this team is still being written, and at least for now, the future doesn’t look nearly as far away as it used to, which was the goal all along, even if it took longer than some of us believed it would.

Starter Spotlight: Elevate Valdez

7-31-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pittsburgh looks for a potential sweep today in Houston but the pitching matchup is going to be a challenge as Bucs send out recent call-up Jake Woodford to go up against Astros ace, Framber Valdez.

Valdez is a workhorse for the Houston rotation over the past few seasons, compiling 509.2 innings since the start of 2022 with a 3.20 ERA and 492 strikeouts in that stretch.

While the crafty southpaw can rack up Ks, he excels at generating ground balls and avoiding barrels. As I mentioned in the preview yesterday, Valdez has the lowest barrel rate (4.5%) but also the highest ground ball rate (61.1%) among all qualified starting pitchers – and with one of the statistically best defenses in baseball behind him, it’s an excellent recipe for success.

Naturally, Valdez works low in the zone with his arsenal, which features a mid-90s sinker, a low-80s curve and a high-80s changeup. He’ll mix in a slider occasionally as well but mostly works the main three offerings as they make up ~95% of his overall pitches this season.

The curveball has been a real weapon for Valdez with an oBA of .149 and a Whiff rate of 39.8% while his changeup has been getting hit directly into the ground (-7 launch angle) and getting nearly identical whiffs at a 37.7% clip. On the other hand, his sinker gets a TON of contact – usually weak contact, granted – but has a higher likelihood to catch more of the plate than the other offerings and should be the one to target.

As the title suggests, the big thing against Valdez is to elevate. He makes his bag by getting hitters to roll over his pitches but with the recent trades for Bryan de la Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, we have added some critical bats who could potentially impact the game in a big way tonight.

Let’s Go Bucs!