Starter Spotlight: Pfaadt Chance

7-27-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Though the Pirates squandered an early lead and multiple opportunities to break through with more runs, they will have another chance to make up for it tonight as they face Diamondbacks starter, Brandon Pfaadt.

Pfaadt is having a resurgent sophomore season following his lackluster numbers in his rookie year, where he posted a 5.72 ERA over 96 regular season frames. He would improve in the post-season (3.27 ERA in 22 innings) and has continued that turn of success this year with a 3.74 ERA across 120.1 innings.

His pitch mix mostly consists of a mid-90s 4-seam, a mid-80s sweeper and a low-90s sinker, while occasionally adding in a high-80s changeup and low-80s curve. But mostly, he’s throwing the first three options.

His sweeper has been his most successful offering, stymying hitters and generating a 34.9% whiff rate while producing 53 of Pfaadt’s 111 strikeouts this year – the most of any pitch.

On the other hand, his four-seam and sinker have been been hit often and hard, with his four-seam in particular expected to hit some strong regression as the xSLG (.426) is 60 points higher than the actual SLG (.366) rate.

Pfaadt works sweeper/sinker/4-seam against righties but mainly falls back on his 4-seam as his main pitch for lefties with the changeup/sweeper as secondary pairings. And lefties have been much more successful in these plate appearances.

Lefties have posted nearly 100 points more in batting average and almost 200 points more for the OPS (.734 vs .565).

Hopefully, Rowdy is feeling good and able to play today because the offense needs the bat and for the left-handed bats to step up today. Look for high heat and lay off the breaking stuff down.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Pirates (52-50) at Diamondbacks (53-50)

7-26-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

Following their fourth consecutive series victory on Wednesday over the NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Pirates head west for a crucial three-game series in the desert, heading to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks.

As Pirates fans, get used to hearing about Arizona, as Pittsburgh will face them six times over the course of the next week, beginning tonight. On top of that, the Pirates enter this series trailing the Diamondbacks by half a game in the NL Wild Card race, so there’s no doubt that these three games, and, well, the next week could have massive implications for the wild card race for both teams.

Pittsburgh enters this series as winners of 10 of their past 12 games, winning series against the Brewers, White Sox, Phillies and Cardinals over that span. The Pirates also own the best record in the NL in the past ten games, posting an 8-2 record.

The Diamondbacks have seen similar success, winning their past three series against the Blue Jays, Cubs and Royals. The Snakes are also tied with the Mets for the second best record in the NL over the past 10 games, posting a 7-3 record.

Pittsburgh will get to face some real talent in this series, from pitching to some elite offensive weapons, so lets take a look at what to expect over the weekend.

7-26
Pirates – Luis Ortiz (R) – 5-2, 73.2 IP, 2.57 ERA, 59 Ks/21 walks, 1.11 WHIP
D’backs – Zac Gallen (R) – 7-5, 81.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 80 Ks/27 walks, 1.25 WHIP

7-27
Pirates – Marco Gonzales (L) – 1-1, 26.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 19 Ks/6 walks, 1.28 WHIP
D’backs – Brandon Pfaadt (R) – 4-6, 120.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 111 Ks/27 walks, 1.11 WHIP

7-28
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 10-5, 121.1 IP, 3.34 ERA, 108 Ks/32 walks, 1.24 WHIP
D’backs – Yilber Diaz (R) – 1-1, 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 7 Ks/4 walks, 1.40 WHIP

Pirates: Oneil Cruz

This would have been Bryan Reynolds spot, but he will likely be unavailable for this series after being placed on the Bereavement list on Thursday.

Despite that, Oneil Cruz has still been impressive and has been a major component to the month of July the Pirates have been able to have, slashing .300/.348/.550/.898 with three homers and 15 RBIs since the calendar turned to July.

Its a series versus Arizona where Cruz won’t see a left-handed starter, setting him up for a potentially monster series at Chase Field as he continues to post good numbers.

Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte, deservingly, was an All-Star in 2024, and he hasn’t slowed down in July either, posting a 1.003 OPS with five homers and 15 RBIs for the Snakes in July.

On top of all that, Marte ranks in the top 18 in all of baseball in average(.296), home runs(22), RBIs(64) and OPS(.896), posting easily the best OPS on the D’Backs roster while trailing just first baseman Christian Walker in homers.

Marte has phenomenal splits from both sides of the plate, including a 1.093 OPS versus left-handed pitching, so keep a special eye on Saturday when he faces Marco Gonzales.

Pirates: Connor Joe

Connor Joe had a phenomenal start to the 2024 campaign, but he’s slowed down considerably, collecting his first RBI since June 11 on Wednesday.

Joe’s OPS in July sits at a .590 clip, and with the turnaround that Rowdy Tellez has had, he’s seen less opportunities, but Joe can still be a viable offensive option in the middle or back-end of the Pirates order.

With Reynolds out as well, expect Joe to occupy left or right field and get ample opportunities to turn the tide in his favor against Arizona.

Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll took the baseball world by storm in 2023 by helping lead Arizona to a World Series appearance, but 2024 hasn’t been as kind to Carroll, who is currently batting .210 with a .632 OPS and just six homers on the season.

July hasn’t been great for the young star either, as he sits with a .691 OPS and measly .194 batting average, including just seven extra-base hits.

Carroll has just three hits in his past 19 at-bats, so he’ll aim to turn things around versus Pittsburgh, and trust me, Arizona sure hopes he can.

Key Injuries

The Pirates are anticipating returns from left-handed reliever Ryan Borucki and left-handed starter Bailey Falter soon, while Jared Jones is still recovering from an injury that will likely sideline him until mid-August. Bryan Reynolds is on Bereavement, so he should only be out temporarily.

Arizona, who had a strong starting pitching staff on paper going into 2024, has seen those strong options diminish throughout the season, as Merrill Kelly, Blake Walston and Eduardo Rodriguez have been and are sidelined with injuries with estimated return dates in mid-August.

Things to Look For

The Pittsburgh pitching staff versus the Arizona offense is the matchup to watch for this weekend.

Arizona features four players with an OPS north of .800 and four more players with an OPS north of .700, highlighted with the D’Backs ranking third in MLB in RBIs. The D’Backs also rank 16th in homers, 7th in doubles and 5th in OBP, so Ortiz, Gonzales and Keller have their work cut out for them.

The story I think comes when the bullpen is called upon, and the Pirates bullpen has been much better as of late, so expect Pittsburgh to show a willingness to get up early in games to let their starters work long enough not to tax the bullpen against a strong offense.

Pirates, D’Backs, competitive baseball, strap your seatbelt and get ready for a wild ride folks.

Starter Spotlight: Keys to Attack Zac Gallen

7-26-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pirates head to the desert to face the defending NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks, and they begin the series facing the Dbacks Cy Young finalist in starting pitcher, Zac Gallen.

The bespectacled Gallen has been a workhorse as the ace of the Snakes staff over the past few years, culminating in a 3.47 ERA over 210 innings last season before tossing another 33.2 frames in the playoffs – but it seems like the workload is starting to catch up with him a bit, missing time earlier this season with injury and dealing with some ineffectiveness as of late.

Over the 2024 season, Gallen has a 3.64 ERA over his 16 starts this year but has REALLY struggled lately, allowing 13 runs over his 4 games this month – a 6.50 ERA through 18 July innings.

Gallen has a 4-pitch mix: low-90s 4-seam, low-80s knuckle-curve, high-80s changeup and a mid-80s slider.

He works indiscriminately with the fastball/curve to hitters working the heat high and the curve dropping low and under the zone. He works in the changeup breaking down and in against lefties while utilizing the slider mostly when facing right handed hitters, with similar down and in location. 

All of his pitches have been hit hard this year but he’s gotten some luck as the expected values for nearly all of his offerings are higher than the actual results.

His fastball in particular has an average exit velocity of 94 MPH and his average EV across all offerings (91.4) is the highest in MLB among pitchers with 200+ batted ball events.

He’s gotten by avoiding barrels and generating a good amount of ground balls but if Pirates hitters are geared up for the low-velo fastball – which Gallen throws ~50% of the time – they have a chance to drive the ball in that hot desert air.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Why Do the Pirates Insist on Playing Yasmani Grandal or Catchers Like Him?

7-24-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

For the rest of forever, Pirates fans will look at the lineup on a daily basis, and there will always be at least that one guy nobody wants to see. At different times this year, that’s at times been 3 or 4 different guys like Rowdy Tellez, Michael A. Taylor, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski, and of course, Yasmani Grandal.

We went through this at the catching position each of the past two seasons too, with Roberto Perez who got injured before we could warm our way into complaint. Austin Hedges, who nobody wanted to see out of his catching gear of course staked his claim to “the worst hitter ever”.

I’m not here to tell you different.

Poor hitting, glove first players have been a thing for as long as baseball has been a sport, but they tend to be more of a thing on a team that has so much offense they can afford it, the Pirates have at least with the catching position decided that regardless of what’s around them, they need this for the staff.

In other words, their philosophy is, having a good defensive catcher helps the pitching, and helping the pitching means the offense has to provide less and run prevention that isn’t an arm is a lot cheaper than run production typically is.

Again, if for some reason you’ve come here looking to be talked into thinking Grandal is good, umm, keep looking. I’m not here to say they either have enough offense to afford this, or that they couldn’t achieve that with say a Jason Delay.

What I am going to put out there today, is exactly what the Pirates “THINK” this position needs to provide, and in turn, what they think a guy like Grandal has a better chance of providing than others on their roster.

Outing Efficiency

Did you ever see Joey Bart set up in one place and have to move across the plate, even if only with his glove to catch the ball? I’m sure you have, and I’m just as sure you’ve seen it cost a strike call, because even right in the zone, a catcher who moves his glove or himself so much that the umpire notices is going to lose his pitcher a strike call here and there.

Joey is fine back there, relax, again I’m in no way trying to paint a picture that Grandal is better, but specifically for a guy like Paul Skenes, the Pirates think he needs help in this area because the velocity throws off umpires and handling it steadily behind the dish at the very least helps ensure his strikes are called as such.

The other part of this, the Pirates see Grandal as the type of veteran who “will be listened to” by pitchers. In order to see things like we did last night with Paul Skenes going 8.1 innings, it takes in their mind, Grandal getting him to attack the hitters with balls they can contact to try to keep his outing on track.

There’s no nice way to say this, but Yasmani Grandal isn’t a pleasant guy, and in this case, I think that’s exactly what the Pirates want from their catcher. Someone the pitchers don’t want to ignore.

All of this is to get Paul Skenes, and whomever else they use him with, to reach 100 pitches in the 7th, 8th or 9th as opposed to the 5th or 6th. It might cost strikeouts here and there, it might cause a homerun at times, but it does lead to longer outings and in theory, shorter innings too.

Game Planning

This one is new to me. Meaning, I’ve heard it mentioned as something a guy did really well here and there, but I’ve never heard anyone crow over this the way the Pirates, and to be fair, their pitchers have this season with Grandal.

I have some friends who cover the White Sox and I asked them to fill me in on whether this was a thing while he was there. Neither of them saw it as a thing in fact in their minds, the Sox struggled to define him as a starting catcher let alone some game planning genius.

I have no doubt it’s something he’s good at, if only because it’s nearly impossible to get as many guys to lie for you as I’ve heard praise his work without prompting, including Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller.

In Game Adjustment

This one has cropped up a ton this year.

When a Pirates starter struggles, they tend to get back on track relatively quickly and according to many of them, it’s often Yasmani picking up on the opposing hitter’s approach against his guy, or even picking up on what his pitcher has or doesn’t have that day.

He uses his setup behind the dish to quietly move the pitcher back into the zone.

It’s subtle, but I’ll try to use Joey Bart to explain the difference here. Joey has a technique that works well too for certain pitchers to do the same thing. Joey will set up middle-middle, glove center cut and he’ll call all the same pitches he normally would, including to the inside, outside, up or down. He sees that spot for the glove as a reset. It works very well for Luis Ortiz, Jared jones or Quinn Priester, not so well for Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez and yes, Paul Skenes.

This makes sense if you think about it. Marco and Martin need framing. They’re corner of the zone/soft contact type pitchers who need the catcher to help get the majority of those called for strikes. And Paul, I already told you about the reaching for velocity issue.

Then you have the preparedness. The best way I can put this is, according to team officials and the few pitchers I’ve spoken to, Grandal is simply great at varying the attack the second time through, or, not varying the attack if it doesn’t need to change.

Jacob Stallings was an ace at this too, he just had 1 or 2 pitchers tops who were capable of executing.

Now, is all that enough? Probably not, and bluntly, I don’t think this team is in a position to have a defensive first anything as currently constructed.

That said, I’m not them, and if you asked me who would start behind the dish in a Wild Card game with Skenes on the mount, I still can’t sit here and tell you it would be Joey Bart instead.

I can say regardless, Grandal is no longer physically capable of being the starter, so latching him to someone you truly believe in makes a difference for makes some sense.

At the deadline, the Pirates moved Austin Hedges out after stubbornly using him and his net zero bat all year long, but Hedges was universally seen as a defensive wizard and he was moved to a team that was so gifted offensively that his bat wasn’t as big of a deal, AND, they barely used him in Texas.

The market for Grandal in my mind will not be big and despite the sales job the Pirates have done in addition to the defensive skills he legitimately is gifted with, I don’t see this guy having the reputation defensively to secure such a deal. I also think his in the room reputation damn near guarantees that he stays put or ultimately gets DFA’d or winds up on the IL before the season ends.

This is no longer about holding Henry Davis back, it’s now about knowing damn well Henry doesn’t help in any of these categories, just gives you a better chance for offense (yes, I saw him play early on too).

The Pirates have, under Ben Cherington, at least to me, overvalued these skills.

Now, I say this acknowledging fully they’ve done wonderfully developing pitching, and for all I know, this “overvaluing” is expressly why it’s gone so incredibly well. My point here is that this team probably can’t afford to get little offensively from the position.

Grain of salt here, I can count up maybe 10 catchers in baseball that are hitting at what I’d consider a production altering asset. In fact, Joey Bart is at least on the fringes of that group right now.

If I watch Mitch Keller, easily our most polished pitcher, throw to Joey Bart and then Yasmani Grandal, I can honestly say, I’ll see more comfort with Grandal. I can honestly say, if Mitch is getting touched in the first with Grandal, he probably won’t be by the next inning. If he’s throwing to Bart, he’s probably going to take a bit longer to either adjust his mix.

Again, none of this is to say, yes, of course Grandal needs to keep playing, or of course Yasmani has to be the personal catcher for Skenes or Keller or whatever. I’m simply saying, there is more to this position than being a capable hitter, and while it’s frustrating to watch at times, it also might be a significant part of why this staff has not only progressed quickly, but also potentially polished some arms up that they and we didn’t expect to help as much as they have.

A big part of all this is like I said earlier, there isn’t exactly a conga line of offensively minded catchers just floating around baseball, and even if they’re are, teams tend to worry about the bat being in the lineup as much as possible and minimize how much time they spend behind the dish.

It’s plausible, even if/when the Pirates have a setup something like Endy and Henry, the chances are very good they’d still want to carry a “defense” guy, or, one of them will need to show they can provide it.

As often as we yell about year 5, perhaps it’s worth noting they haven’t entered one season yet where they believed they had a catcher who wasn’t at least super experienced or ranked very highly defensively.

It’s a thing, because the Pirates want it to be a thing, and unless the pitching takes a dive, it’s very hard for me to stomp my feet and claim they’re dead wrong, even when one of them hits into an inning ending double play.

Starter Spotlight: Southpaw Showdown

7-24-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After a heart-wrenching loss last night, the Pirates will look to win the rubber match today, sending veteran lefty, Martín Pérez, who will face off against fellow southpaw Matthew Liberatore in what will likely be a bullpen game for the visiting Red Birds.

Liberatore has bounced between the rotation and bullpen for St. Louis this season with a distinct difference in performance between the two situations.

As a reliever, Liberatore’s opponents are posting a .235/.302/.322 slash line with 2 home runs and 4 doubles compared to a .260/.304/.521 slash line with 4 long balls and 7 two-baggers when he starts the game.

His last start, however, was a successful one where he shutdown the Atlanta Braves for 6 innings of 2-hit ball with 1 walk and 8 strikeouts. He also threw a season-high 85 pitches in the June 26th game but hasn’t exceeded 50 pitches in an outing since so hard to say how long he’ll be on the bump, particularly if he has another effective outing.

Liberatore has a handful of pitches he throws out there but mainly utilizes his mid-90s sinker and 4-seamer, alongside his main weapon: a high-80s slider, which is arguably one of the best in baseball.

He typically runs the slider down and away from right-handed hitters while working up and in with the four-seam and sinker. These three offerings comprise over 75% of his total pitches.

Additionally, he mixes in a low-90s cutter, high-70s curve and high-80s changeup with nearly all of his pitches working up in the zone.

Based on face-value and expected metrics, his slider and curve are the pitches to lay off as each have a sub-.200 BA/xBA as well as sub-.300 SLG/xSLG but the other offerings have been far less successful for the young lefty.

Hitters should look to attack heat early in counts as he tries to get ahead of hitters and battle back against the breaking stuff when down in counts.

Liberatore has below average strikeout (19.6%) and walk (8.1%) rates so be patient, be ready for heat when your pitch comes and get the series win today.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: These Bucs Don’t F-LYNN-ch

7-23-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Another day, another rematch from earlier this season in today’s game as the Pirates face veteran and long-time foe in Lance Lynn, who enters tonight’s game with some dismal numbers both on the season (4.39 ERA and -0.6 bWAR) and his in career against the Pirates (5.34 ERA across 123 innings).

Lynn’s return to his roots in St. Louis has likely not gone as well as he or the team had hoped. Somehow, the Cardinals have won 6 of his last 8 games started despite Lynn posting a 5.77 ERA over 39 innings pitched in that span.

Nearly 90% of his pitches are variations of a fastball (sinker/4-seam/cutter) ranging from 85-95 MPH. Among all his pitches, only the 4-seam has positive net value, jumping from being abysmal last year to being one of the best in MLB.

Just look at the company he’s in here! How is he able to produce good results with such an otherwise unspectacular looking offering?

He has seen his fastball’s oSLG drop from .520 last year to .394 this season and oBA go from .255 to .206. This is despite providing below average movement, spin rate and velocity.

So, why is it suddenly one of the best fastballs in baseball?

Why are hitters struggling against a pitch they know is coming?

Well, as you might expect with someone who has a LOT of bad numbers on his ledger, he’s gotten some luck.

His expected numbers on the pitch from last year are not so different this season. He’s even seen an increased in hard contact against the offering but the results have skewed considerably compared to last year. And, like with anything, that luck eventually runs out.

Expect the fastballs elevated and look to attack, attack, attack. This is a winnable game for the Bucs, especially with Paul Skenes on the bump for the Pirates.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades

7-23-24 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Another Bat….man

Justin Verno-  The July Trade Deadline is crawling closer and closer, Corey. It will be here before we can say, “have you heard the latest rumor?”

Last week we tackled the idea of adding a OF (specifically CF). What’s on the agenda for this week?  Another bat.

Corey Shrader- The 2024 Pirates team is one of contradictions. On one hand, they’ve got second most quality starts and a top 5 pitching fWAR in the National League. And on the other hand, they’ve got a bottom 3 fWAR, wRC+, & wOBA as a team offense. 

The need to upgrade the offense is quite clear.

JV- With the Pirates sweeping the Chicago White Sox to end the first half, the Pirates find themselves just a game and a half out of a wild card spot. And with Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller leading the way I am praying that Mr. Robert Nutting and General Manager Ben Cherington don’t let this opportunity slip through their hands. And I am not just talking about a possible Wild Card Playoff run, (well that too) but the larger part of what I am alluding to is wasting a prime chance to rally this town behind this team, this front office and hell, even behind this owner. 

The last time Mr. Nutting had a winner(a three year run) there seemed to be a “wait and see” mood for a good portion of the city. I would love to see GMBC jump into the pool with both feet and get all the oars in the water at the same time.

Last week we gave our best and built some deals to land an upgrade at CF. This week, we take a shot at adding one more bat. 

CS- So JV, I think we should approach this one as any position goes hitter addition kind of move. Obviously the team has some positions that will prove to be a more natural draw as a target, but I think having some leeway with where to search makes sense when the team just needs production writ large. What do you think?

JV- I love it. I think it shows that the Bucs will have some options on how to add a bat and some options on who to give up to get ‘er done. Last week you got the 1st up, mind if I step the plate first?

CS- Have the honors, JV, let’s get to it.

JV-  Before I get into my first package I have to admit, this is probably the toughest package to build. I looked at 100 different names(I didn’t count, but it’s likely close to that). Do I go rental? Prospect? A name already connected to the Bucs? 1B? C? OF? Corey, there are a lot of ways to go here. After grabbing a cold one from the fridge I think I have my guy ready to go. 

The Big Prize

Pirates get-

Isaac Paredes-3B/1B/SS/2B-MLB (SV $49M)

I get that Rowdy Tellez is finally hitting the ball, but he just doesn’t offer what the 25 year old Paredes offers. Paredes has a wRC+ of 138 on the season which follows his 137 wRC+ from 2023. The kid can hit, his best days are not behind him and with three years of control past this season he’s exactly what the kind of difference maker GMBC needs to be looking at. 

The big question here of course is, is he available? And I just don’t know. But Andy Martino of SNY is reporting that they will listen, so let’s have some fun here. The hard part is what could the Bucs give up to make this work.

Rays get-

Termarr Johnson-2B-ETA:2027 (FV 50 $28M)

This is the second time I’ve used the former 4th overall pick in a trade package. We should get used to hearing his name come up, and perhaps to the idea of the Bucs using him in a deal to add a proven controlled bat.

Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2026 (FV 45 $4M)

I hate giving up Harrington here. He has the look of an FV 50 prospect that could debut this year or early in 2026. When a prospect’s status is pointing north as they move through the upper levels is when my blood really gets flowing. The Bucs have pitching throughout the system and I imagine there are a few arms the Rays could find attractive, but Harrington gives the Rays the very thing they just love. To keep the ball rolling, this team retools in real time. We think they’re rebuilding but turns out they’re just fine tuning. 

Richard Ramirez- C-ETA:2029 (FV 40 $2M)

Pitching is this system’s deepest pool, with MIF coming in second. A distant third?  I’d say C, the Bucs aren’t knee deep here but With Endy getting healthy and names like Axiel Plaz, Omar Alfonzo, Garret Forster and Abraham Gutierrez in the mix, the Bucs have some nice options. 

Liover Peguero- 2B/SS-ETA:Debuted(FV hard to gage)

Tampa has the long term 3B replacement down at AAA, Junior Caminero. Peggy gives them the option of a 2B or SS. If the Rays want to move Lowe, cool. Options are nice to have!

This may seem a tad light. Admittedly I am betting on teams having a higher value on Harrington.

CS- Paredes, in my opinion is a little too risky of a target to surrender this much prospect capital on. While the production is difficult to argue with, the profile is scary. Much has been made of his near mythic ability to pull & lift the ball, that exact skillset is what makes him a dangerous proposition for the Bucs. 

His projected home run total if PNC were his home park is cut from 73 in the Trop all the way down to 43 at PNC. 

I fear that what makes Paredes special, may no longer make him special once he were to don the Black & Gold. Of course he could just be a freak outlier regardless of park, etc. But it isn’t something I’d want to bet a huge trade package on, personally.

Since we are discussing Tampa Bay some here, I think I will stay there for mine.

Pirates get: Randy Arozarena, OF ($44.1 SV)

I know the last article was the OF one, but I keep coming back to Randy as a quality target. He is in the midst of a down year and does seem to have turned a bit of a corner before the break. Hitting the ball hard & running a low BABIP (for his career norms). It should be noted that his sprint speed has dropped every year of his career to this point and that could definitely play into his BABIP falling as well. Just something to monitor.

Rays get: Henry Davis, C (FV 55, $46 SV)

Tampa Bay is an organization that is strong in many areas. Catcher is not one of them. Yes, it would sting quite a lot to move off of Henry Davis, but Randy Arozarena really does fill a need for the Pirates too. Having Endy Rodriguez on the mend COULD make Davis a moveable asset in the right deal. Maybe this is what it could look like?

Davis has seen his star fade a bit this year too, perhaps. But I cannot see his value totally tanking on the market given his limited exposure to MLB play. 

Smaller Bites

CS- For a smaller acquisition the Pirates are slightly a victim of circumstance. Many teams that are currently believed to be sellers have quite a number of younger players already playing at the major league level. To me, this suggests that both the cost to acquire them and the team’s motivation to move them, renders a lot of these pieces questionable trade targets.

For a smaller move I’d look at something like:

Pirates get: Ryan Noda, 1B/OF (SV $2 based on 2023 FV of 40)

Athletics gets: Jeral Toledo, INF (SV $2, FV40)

Noda had an interesting 2023 at the major league level hitting 16 bombs with a .342 wOBA/123 wRC+ in 127 games for the A’s. His 2024 big league play was poor in a 30 game sample, just 1 dinger in 30 games and a .212 wOBA/38 wRC+. 

His AAA play has been much better, but it also highlights his risky profile as a low average, high OBP slugger (.227/.408). But he has produced none the less with 12 homers & a .396 wOBA/124 wRC+. He has a pretty good approach, but has been unable to make consistent contact. The contact he has made has been strong featuring an xDamage of .475. 

Going back to Oakland would be an intriguing lotto ticket type of piece in Toledo. A switch hitter that performed well in the Complex league as a 20 year old in 2023. Thus far it has not translated to A ball yet, but his profile is enticing enough to make him an attractive option still.

Noda isn’t particularly sexy, but he can play both first base and a corner OF position. His splits vs LHP could make him prohibitive though. While it is somewhat unlikely at this stage of his career, perhaps a team willing to give him an extended look could strike some gold for a few seasons and find a cheap power producer.

JV-  I hate to go back to the LA Dodgers for my nibble here, but the set up to grab a bat here is just too perfect for both teams. Whether it be Jazz Chisolm Jr or Luis Robert Jr, the Dodgers will be going for the big gun to add to Andy Pages and the HR King Teoscar Hernadez. Leaving them with James Outman, Jason Heyward and Miguel Vargas to move. 

Pirates get-

Miguel Vargas-OF/2B/1B-MLB (SV hard to gage)

FG still hasn’t made an adjustment to his projections. Needless to say, they will and those adjustments should come down. Since being recalled at the end of May Vargas is slashing 

.249/.299/.459  OPS .659  wRC+ 112

Nothing to write home about, and after getting demoted in 2023 the value has surely taken a hit. Still, he can play 1B and OF and at 24 years old the upside is still there.

LAD get-

Tony Blanco Jr-1B/RF-ETA:2027 (FV 40+ $4M)

The Bucs once stole Oneil Cruz from the Dodgers in a deadline swap for Tony Watson. Do the Dodgers return the favor?

Marco Gonzales-Sp-MLB (SV $even)

The Dodgers were set to have one of the better rotations in baseball, and they still will. But for now they have some guys out and Gonzo can help bridge that gap and when they get some arms back he can help stabilize the 

Bullpen. 

CS – I am going to cheat a bit here and give one more option. 

Pirates get – Kyle Stowers, OF (SV $4.00 based on prior FV of 45)

Orioles get – Braxton Ashcraft, P (SV $4.00, FV 45+)

Stowers is currently on the O’s big club roster after the injury to Heston Kjerstad opened a spot up for him. Much like almost every other O’s prospect, Stowers doesn’t truly have a spot to play beyond a reserve role. Make no mistake, despite being less hyped, he is an intriguing power hitting prospect. In 2024, he launched 17 jacks on the back of a .366 wOBA/113 wRC+. The batted ball data is strong featuring a 91.5 average EV and 45.6% Hard Hit rate. 

Given his size, he could make an idea transition to 1B case but can also man a corner OF spot.

Ashcraft going to Baltimore is about the combination of proximity and quality. He could provide help immediately to Baltimore either as a starter or reliever. It would hurt to move him, but Stowers would be a compelling get.

Put a bow on it

CS- Well, this was surprisingly harder than I expected. After digging through almost every team’s organizational depth, I kept coming up with the same kind of player as a logical target. Corner OF with potential to play 1B. I can’t stress enough how strange this trade market is to scour. Do you agree or am I over thinking it here, JV?

JV- Agree and then some. The list of known ‘sellers’ is small while the list of known “buyers” is guesswork. I have to imagine that there are some teams ‘in the hunt” that have GM’s that are aware their team is more pretender than contender but what those teams will do is something we’d have to call in the Scooby Doo Gang to investigate as they’re complete mysteries. 

I took a larger bite by looking at Isaac Paredes and you’re right. There are some concerns there. But I do think at one point the production is the production. 7 of his 16 homers this season were on the  road and 30 of career jacks have come on the road. And he hit 20 as a Twin in 2022. A few of his HR could turn into doubles off the Clemente Wall at PNC Park and I am a-ok with that. 

That wraps up this edition and if you’re looking for a hint of what’s on tap for the next week? All I can say is it’s a little bit of this and  a little bit of that.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Quick Out the Gate

7-22-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Start out the post All Star Break schedule with a series win against the Phillies? Yeah, I’ll take that. As before the break, stack those series wins and you’ll look back on your season with a pretty good record.

There’s always room for better.

Far too often this time of year, we almost look past what the team is actually doing while we freak out about what might be added or subtracted from them in the next week or so.

Heck, I had a guy tell me yesterday that he hoped the team would resist the urge to add because he liked the team as they are and wanted to watch them grow together.

There are fans for every opinion, the point is, for every team that’s playing baseball on this competitive razor’s edge, deciding what to do or how to proceed is very much so coming to a head, Buccos included.

Lets do this!

1. This Team Can Hang

This series with the Phillies probably illustrated more than almost anything else could why just getting into the playoffs if you can is important.

The Pirates didn’t even throw their top choices at the Phils and they still managed to take 2 of 3. And from this, you should take note, nobody wants to see what the Pirates can do to them with their pitching staff in a short series. Phillies included, and they are one of the few teams that can on paper stand toe to toe with your Bucs on the starting slate.

Bottom line, there isn’t a series they should enter in which they look around that room and think “we don’t have a shot”.

Again, if you’re asking, is this Pirates team going to win the World Series, you’ll never catch me even waking up in a fever dream claiming it’s likely. All I’m suggesting is nobody is going to want to face them in the playoffs and this pitching makes them a very scary stumbling block potentially for one of the team’s with betting odds in their favor.

That’s all right now. Not wishful thinking for what they’ll trade for. I think that in and of itself is a very good sign that adding likely won’t be about recency bias, it’ll be about seeing a team like Philly frustrated.

They don’t have a juggernaut offense, hell they don’t even have a set rotation at the moment, but they do have a reputation that’s growing in MLB. If you play the Pirates in a 3 game set, you better show up all 3 games and bring your A game.

2. Well….We’re Waiting!

July 30th is coming. 8 Days from now we’ll be watching the trade deadline tracker and for once not be wondering which teams will be taking our All Stars for stretch runs.

Teams are starting to decide what they are. Your Pirates are likely too close to decide against adding something. Even a couple losses won’t drop them into sell territory, especially since they’re in a position where they might still sell off some rentals in the process of making room for additions. In other words, they’re kinda in position to do both, and have it make total sense.

I think the Pirates needs have solidified over the past few weeks. It wasn’t long ago first base would have been one of those spots, now, the only way they can target a first baseman is if the player has term that lasts into the next season at least.

Point is, they need an outfielder and honestly, that’s the list. I can’t see a starting pitcher, I don’t think you’ll find a catcher playing better than Joey Bart, it’d be real tough to upgrade Rowdy Tellez at this point, the infield in general is pretty set.

So with only 8 days left, here are my top targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and let me be clear, I don’t care what it takes. The team has a very short list of “untouchables”, and I’m simply not worried about anyone else.

CF/2B – Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Miami Marlins – The Marlins are going back to the drawing board, and part of the reason if you ask me is Jazz Chisholm has never really evolved into the star the league decided he was going to be before he got started. All the tools are there, all the talent in the world, but between injuries and periods of lack of focus, he’s simply never broken out of the cocoon. He won’t be cheap to acquire, but you get a player with all the tools to be a star, 2 more years of team control and a shot at him playing like a superstar for those 2 years. It’s a good fit for need, probably not the best fit for being comfortable you’ve made a great move.

CF – Luis Robert Jr. – Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are by far the worst team in baseball, and to almost nobody’s surprise, Luis Robert Jr. Spend a majority of the season on the IL, just like he does every season for the most part. Next year he makes 15 million dollars and then he has 2 club options for 20 million in 2026 and 2027. If he’s healthy, he’s easily the best bat on the board, if he isn’t he’s a 20 million dollar albatross that forces you to play an inferior player and pine for his return from the IL. He’s played more than 100 games exactly one time in his career. I’m not sure the price tag and his injury history will speak to anyone, but he’s certainly available.

OF – Lane Thomas – Washington Nationals – The Nationals aren’t really all that far behind the Pirates, and yet, they’re in a different place in their build. They’re probably a bit ahead of where they had themselves projected at this point, and I’d imagine they’re looking to create a landing spot for Dylan Crews to really try to pry this thing open in 2025. Thomas has another year of arbitration in 2025, and he’ll get north of 6 or 7 million I’d wager. There isn’t much that’s flashy about Lane, but he has power, hit 28 bombs in 2023, having a bit of a down year, but he still gets on base, fields well and would be an actual MLB starting OF should you acquire him.

DH/OF – Brent Rooker – Oakland A’s – The A’s are going to sell, they just aren’t going to sell like many front runners would like. In fact, I’m not convinced Rooker will be on the block, he has 3 more years of arbitration after this year, meaning he won’t reach free agency until 2028. He’s 29 right now, so think Connor Joe minus the glove, plus a ton of power. Late bloomer here. That certainly doesn’t disqualify him or make him a bad target, his lack of fielding acumen might though. Unless the A’s have missed something and Rooker is actually someone who fields better than they’ve acted like he could, chances are this is a tough fit, unless you’re willing to minimize Andrew McCutchen’s role, which frankly, perhaps you should be. This dude hit 30 homeruns in 2023, and he has 22 in only 86 games so far this year. The Power is real, the Strikeouts are too. This isn’t a perfect player, just sayin’ if you want pure offensive help, that’s what this is.

Out of all of these, I personally prefer Thomas, I think he’s probably the best combination of all of them. He can hit for power, he can field, he has some control and I don’t think he’ll cost what the other 3 will. There is no more “aggressive” timeline to find here, we’re 8 days out, from here on out, they’re just moves at the deadline. Every team in the league was stuck waiting for things to open up and just this weekend, some teams made it clear their decision has been made.

They could go with plenty of other players too, I just think these are seen as some of the best available. The Rays have some guys that are very interesting too, but this is enough to make the point, there aren’t perfect fits out there in my mind.

The store is open now, don’t be the dude who left your membership card at home.

3. Flex Seal

Have you ever seen the commercials for Flex Seal? They do weird stuff to show how great Flex Seal is, like cutting the bottom off a boat, replacing it with a screen door and covering it with their product to show it still floats.

They show how it keeps Hurricane water out, repairs a roof, you get it.

Let me just say this about this deadline, I don’t see any rolls of Flex Seal out there on the market. There aren’t any pieces that fix everything. There aren’t even groups of players that would, not for this team anyway.

I feel pretty confident despite Ben Cherington on his radio show yesterday saying they weren’t trying to limit themselves to a specific position for trade targets, that the Pirates real opportunities for upgrade are rather thin,

They don’t need starting pitching, which sounds weird to say, but it’s also undeniably true. They don’t really need relief pitching, but it never hurts to get one more.

They won’t replace 3B or 1B, middle infield with Cruz and Gonzales looks pretty locked in. Reynolds holds down an outfield spot for sure.

So they really need an outfielder, or two, but even that is kinda not genuine, they NEED 1, they COULD USE 2.

That’s it.

Now I’m not telling you that means I think the Pirates 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, C, SP, RP and one OF are all set in stone for future playoff teams, I’m just saying right now, it’s not likely they’d feel they could reasonably upgrade on the market.

Like, you could go get Elias Diaz for Catcher. He’s been better than Joey Bart, but is he so much better that you feel it’s a true upgrade? I’m not so sure, especially since it looks like Bart is poised to return in 2024 via Arbitration.

Can you upgrade 2B over Nick Gonzales? Yeah, you absolutely could but would you want to right when he’s starting to show traction at the MLB level? Could you upgrade over Cruz at SS? Sure, especially defensively, but let’s be real, that’s not why he plays there everyday is it?

Point is, you COULD upgrade just about anywhere, you just won’t see it for myriad reasons.

It’s a strange place to be. You have to let guys keep learning, so that next year they’re potentially even better, but you have a genuine want to upgrade your team this year.

Take a guy like Ke’Bryan Hayes, I could easily recommend that a rental 3B could provide you more than he will for this final stretch in 2024. So follow me here, I’m not saying move on from Hayes forever, just saying, let’s admit he’s not healthy and bench him with this dude we go get.

First, you have to find a guy who plays comparable defense, nobody will be as good, but you can’t create a problem. It can’t be a huge drop off. Then, you have to find a guy who can hit better, and specifically, better this year, better than injured Hayes. Say you find that guy, and he’s a rental.

You could make a move like that, thing is, the player probably doesn’t exist, it probably creates bad feelings with a guy you plan to be important next year, and at the end of the day, it’s probably a slight upgrade anyway by the time you factor in all aspects of the game.

I can slightly help my team in 2024, by potentially doing damage to my 2025 if I’m not careful with where I try to upgrade.

The truth is this team has room to add, but it’s very selective or specific. I could argue they should grab an outfielder with starting role pedigree and a Swiss army knife type, not unlike Connor Joe who covers some spots Joe can’t hack like 2B, 3B, OF, you know, what you’d dream Jared Triolo would develop into.

It’s certainly not a situation where you look around the diamond imagining all the places you could slip a new player in like a hot knife to butter.

Thing is, there isn’t just a one guy who fixes everything acquisition out there in my eyes. There are guys who could be, they just somehow never were for their teams, so to me it’s a stretch to think they could be here.

Maybe just pay to get the roof replaced this offseason instead of seeing if tape is enough this time.

4. The Starting Rotation

This thing is always going to be a topic because if for nothing else but wanting to know when Paul Skenes will pitch.

That said, I’m here to tell you, try not to get fixated on it because it’s going to change, and I mean weekly, maybe turn to turn for most of the rest of the season.

First up we have the trade deadline, and that for obvious reasons could change the makeup. Next up, we have injured members scheduled to come back, notably Jared Jones and Bailey Falter.

And then you have the fact that most of them have been fairly effective. Even Martin Perez has shown you just this season what he can do when he’s right.

The fact is, the Pirates are sitting on something you simply don’t see in this league very often. They have a plethora of starting pitching options, and even when they get deep, they don’t get less intriguing.

Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Braxton Ashcraft are the names on the list without stretching it in any way. I could go farther and probably find you a kid who could give you a good crack at a nice spot start, but I’ll refrain as I just don’t see it mattering, and if it did, the season is probably over.

When healthy, that’s 9 deep.

The team will use 5, 6, spot starts, bullpen games, skipped starts, basically they’ll use every piece of junk they got in the bag to get through this season and hopefully leave their 5 or 6 best with innings left to give at the end.

This is all tied to trying to win mind you. See, it was a huge topic entering the Phillies series that the Pirates weren’t putting their best foot forward by tossing Perez, Ortiz and Gonzales at them, and just because it worked, doesn’t mean you were wrong.

What I’m saying to you is, the effort to get Skenes, Keller, Jones, and whomever you feel is their 4 and 5 wishful thinking lineup come September/October, is real. It’s something they’re not only paying attention to, it’s something they’ve had to have in the back of their mind all season long. Every decision to let Skenes have one more inning. Every time they decided to let Mitch muscle through when he didn’t have it to still deliver 6. All of that is factored in to getting where they want to be with steam left over.

I expect them to mix and match, and shuffle and shift and shorten outings and all of that through this process.

That’s frustrating for fans, I totally get it. Hell, it’s frustrating for all of us here at Steel City Pirates, we get tired of writing TBD in our Series Previews too you know.

As a fan, I’m going to choose to deprioritize calling anyone “the five” until such a time as I know they’re on the other side of this and trying to solidify their preferred rotation later in September.

Should they drop out all together, you can expect their plans to change too. It would be a lot easier to just shut Jared Jones down in September as opposed to let him stretch himself a bit beyond where you wanted the rubber band to stretch, so if the team doesn’t ultimately keep themselves in this, how they handle this aspect will change too.

It might change how they finish, it won’t change how they try to get there.

Organized chaos my friends.

5. The Cardinals

For just about as long as I can remember, the Cardinals have been better than my Pirates. It’s a rivalry, but if I’m really honest, it’s a rivalry the way my Pitt Panthers are to Penn State or the Cleveland Browns are to the Steelers. Yeah, it’s a rivalry, but it’s an incredibly one sided rivalry.

For the first time in quite some time, both of these teams stand poised to add at the deadline, at least partially to get past each other in the standings. This series could have an effect on just how invested either of them will be.

The Cardinals front office know baseball, and they know looking at their roster it simply won’t be enough. I’m almost positive they didn’t expect to be in this position in 2024, but they are a proud franchise, and despite their pre-season expectations, they won’t ignore that they have an opportunity here, even if it’s smoke and mirrors.

The Pirates are prepared to add too, both for this year and beyond. To me, the Cardinals are likely looking for rentals. They still have some rather large exits they’re going to have to deal with in the offseason, and they still don’t have nearly enough close to helping to think they could just tread water.

The Pirates can be open to anything really, if a rental is there and it helps affordably, hey, why not, if a deal with term comes along, hey, it fits right into their wide open window.

It’s time for this group of Pirates players to put their foot down and start showing baseball, and indeed the Cardinals, it’s going to be different for a while. I’m thinking Paul Skenes foot will do well.

The Cardinals have always outpitched the Pirates, and finally after nearly a decade the Pirates have the upper hand and it’s time to be the reason this rival starts heading down the standings, instead of hoping the league will deal with them for you, go take it.

It’s the last time these teams will face each other constructed the way they are, both teams will change something and both will have an eye toward improvement when they do it. I’d like this Pirates team to show them in this series they have a lot of work to do to catch up at this deadline, not hold us off.

They’re still talented, but this isn’t the Cardinals we used to have no choice but to fear, it’s time to prove the logo isn’t mor important than talent.

Pittsburgh now has the more talented team, for this 3 game set, here’s hoping they play like it, it’s arguably the biggest series these teams have played since 2015.

Starter Spotlight: My Rematch With Andre

7-22-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Last time Andre Pallante faced off against the Pirates, he came away with a no decision despite tossing 7 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball in an eventual 3-2 win by the Cardinals. It was the best performance of the season for the Red Birds righty and one the Bucs hope is not repeated when they rematch tonight in Pittsburgh.

I covered most of what fans need to know about Pallante during the preview last time around but key things are that he is a ground-ball MACHINE! In his matchup on July 4th, he got 5 strikeouts, 6 fly outs and 12 groundouts (including one double play).

Only Framber Valdez of the Astros and Jose Soriano of the Angels have a higher ground-ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers than Pallante, who also is one of the best in baseball at generating weak contact in both average exit velocity (86.6MPH – 10th lowest with minimum 200 batters faced) and barrel rate (4.5%, tied for 3rd lowest in MLB).

Pallante rolls fastball-heavy arsenal as his mid-90s sinker/4-seam encompass over 70% of his total pitches thrown. He works high with the 4-seam and down with the sinker, mixing in the high-80s slider and high-70s knuckle-curve down in the zone to change speeds and induce further ground balls.

He was touching 97 on the heater last time around but Bucs bats whiffed just twice in 22 swings against the offering with an average exit velocity of 90.4 MPH.

The 4-seam definitely should be the pitch for hitters to key in on today. They’ve seen him before and they know what to expect as they try to get another winning streak started up against the division rival Cardinals.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Cardinals (52-47) at Pirates (50-49)

7-22-24 – By Michael Castrignano –@412DoublePlay on X

The Pirates and Cardinals meet for a three game series, each fresh off taking 2 of 3 from an NL East playoff contender and with some high stakes at play.

They’ve taken vastly different routes to get where they are – with the Pirates relying on a youth movement to propel them to success and the Cardinals picking pieces from old folks homes in their quest to return to October baseball; however, they have a similar turning point in the season.

On May 11th, Paul Skenes debuted for the Pirates and since then, the team has gone 32-27 to keep them in the playoff hunt. In that same stretch, the Cardinals have produced a 37-23 record after starting the year 15-24.

Baseball is weird.

7/22
Cardinals – Andre Pallante (R) – 4-4, 51.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 41 Ks/19 walks, 1.38 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 10-5, 114.1 IP, 3.46 ERA, 105 Ks/30 walks, 1.25 WHIP

7/23
Cardinals – Lance Lynn (R) –5-4, 96.1 IP, 4.39 ERA, 92 Ks/37 walks, 1.39 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) –6-0, 66.1 IP, 1.90 ERA, 89 Ks/13 walks, 0.92 WHIP

7/24
Cardinals – TBD
Pirates – Martín Pérez (L) –1-5, 77 IP, 5.61 ERA, 61 Ks/27 walks, 1.66 WHIP

Pirates
Oneil Cruz: Let’s switch it up. Bryan Reynolds has certainly not cooled down by any means but Cruz is starting to play like the superstar we all expected of him. Since June 30, Cruz has a .340/.379/.660 slash line with 4 home runs in this stretch. The strikeouts continue to be a problem but if he can continue to crush the ball when he does make contact, it won’t be a big issue for fans.

Cardinals
Alec Burleson: Burleson has been SCORCHING over the past few weeks with 6 home runs and 21 RBI through 16 games in July while batting .358 in that stretch. The team may be getting diminishing returns from some of their veteran position players but they keep finding players who will mash in St. Louis.

Pirates:
Nick Gonzales: Despite the walk-off winner Friday, Gonzales has experienced a bit of a lull this season, posting a .219/.261/.297 slash line this month with no home runs and just 4 extra base hits through 16 games. He’s gotten some poor batted ball luck as his .255 BABIP is well below average but his .345 mark prior to that was also unsustainable in the other direction. He’ll level out eventually but this is a dry spell for the young slugger.

Cardinals
Paul Goldschmidt: The Cardinals have nine different players with a wRC+ above average over the past month but the former MVP for the Red Birds is not one of them. Although he rebounded from a very sluggish start, his numbers this season have fallen off from his previous marks. With a .658 OPS on the year thus far, he’s become essentially a replacement-level player in his walk year.

Key Injuries

Pirates:
Ryan Borucki (left triceps inflammation) has been on the shelf since early April but is working his way back and currently rehabbing with Indianapolis. It is likely he returns sooner than later, providing another key cog to that bullpen.

Cardinals:
Tommy Edman (right wrist sprain) has been on the IL all season but is working his way back as well

What to Watch

Both the Pirates and Cardinals have negative run differential of -11 and -31, respectively. Only the Tampa Bay Rays have a winning record with a negative run differential. The reasons are in contrast as the Cardinals have the National League’s 3rd highest wRC+ since that May 11th mark at 110 but their starting pitching corps has been lackluster, posting a 4.35 ERA over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Pirates have a below average offense during that stretch (94 wRC+) but posted the best rotational ERA in the league at (3.51).

Look for the battle of Pirates pitching vs Cardinals hitting in this series with potential October implications on the line.

Let’s Go Bucs!