Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – All Star Break

7-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Say what you want about this Pirates team. You have your own expectations of course and for some happiness is never going to come without hardware to display at 115 Federal, I get it, really do.

Some are more ok with the process, even if they largely have the same questions about ever truly getting over the top.

Point is, here they are at 48-48 while the baseball world takes a week to regroup and showcase some of their biggest stars.

Lets do this!

1. A Highschool Player? 3 of Them?

The Pirates selected three high school prep players with their first three selections in the entry draft and Pirates fans took it well like always.

If I may, allow me to try to boil down the complaints along with my retorts, it’ll just be easier for me.

  • The Pirates needed to get a bat who will be ready quickly! Well, frankly, there wasn’t a bat like that available at 9. In fact, I don’t think you’ll find a single bat in this draft that reaches the league in year two like Wyatt Langford.
  • They went high school because it’s cheaper! I mean, the slot system will ensure he’s cheaper than like 7 or 8 of those selected in front of him minimally. Also, I’m not sure this is true, at least not often enough to claim it as a certainty. College bats have nowhere else to turn, high school selections could in theory just go to college. I’m not sure the bargaining power is in the team’s favor here really.
  • Another Short Stop! Yup. And I’ll probably just copy and paste this evergreen reply. All the best athletes gravitate to Pitcher, Short Stop, and Center Field. You get stragglers, like this year’s number 1 overall selection the first second baseman every taken 1:1, but for the most part, this is just where they play now, not where they’ll play forever. And if the player makes it as a Short Stop, hey, bully.
  • Developed bats were needed because this team can’t develop! OK, but here’s the thing, if the team thinks this way, shouldn’t you be asking why they aren’t firing like everyone with anything to do with developing hitters? I mean, I’m sure you do, but my point is, unless they feel the same way and are ignoring it, chances are they think they can develop talent. I don’t say this by way of blessing what they’re doing, just saying, you can’t have a team think like this, if anything, they probably recognize they’ve done much better with pitching and lean into the strength, but no team is just sitting there on their hands saying woe is me, we stink at developing this, without making changes, even the Pirates.
  • This guy won’t be here until like 2029, the window will be closing! Really? Bubba Chandler was drafted in 2021, he’ll very likely be promoted to AAA this season and from there, well, he’s in the exact spot Jared Jones was entering this offseason and he was drafted out of high school in 2020 where he didn’t even get to go play the game. They’re both pitchers, of course, but when the talent warrants it, they’ll move. Heck, Termarr Johnson who struggled early will get promoted to AA soon and next season he’ll make AAA and be poised to get his crack. He was just selected in 2022. Don’t get me wrong, you’re probably right, that’s a very realistic year, but for like the billionth time, even if it fails, Ben Cherington does not plan to have to fully rebuild again. Everything I said about expecting the team to react to something YOU see as fact and THEY don’t applies.
  • There were better hitters on the board! Again, I think this is “right now”. There is risk with taking a guy like Konnor Griffin. He has arguably the highest ceiling of any player in the draft, and his floor is lower than most too. He’s a bet. Most picks are, educated bets. Konnor was drafted for his tools and it’s up to him and the Pirates to ensure he winds up closer to the ceiling than the floor. You may think this is foolish, but it’s very much so been Cherington’s history. Huntington for instance, drafted for floor. He took guys for the most part who profiled as great bets to be major leaguers, but rarely profiled as becoming say top 10 at a position league wide. And I don’t count 1:1 selections for anyone, since the slotting system was in place, you’re getting a perceived top choice every year. I believe there are hitters on the board yet who will beat Griffin to the league. I believe there are hitters on the board who are better bets to be sure fire MLB players, and I believer there were some who will offer more in one category or another. Bottom line, you’re drafting the best version of everyone you evaluate under Cherington’s philosophy, and in this case it’s a high school kid with huge upside, last year it was a phenom that took less than a year to make MLB and become the starting pitcher in the All Star Game before Konnor’s name was uttered. Best “Potential” Available, is sometimes both now and later like Skenes, and sometimes it’s for sure later like Griffin.

2. Extend Paul Skenes?

I know it seems like a very non-Piratey thing to do, but I wouldn’t bet against it. In fact, I’ve been told the team will absolutely approach something like this with the big right hander.

Some of you recall when Gerrit Cole started out with the Pirates and performed well he was a little chafed to have the Pirates present him with the contracted league minimum they were obligated to pay as opposed to a bit of a raise for a kid outperforming his contract.

This sort of thing has always been on the honor’s system. For instance, Oneil Cruz makes the league minimum and he’s one of their better hitters, he’s also been injured and putting together his first full season as we speak, so that’s a bit different.

Skenes could very well be in the conversation for Cy Young and Rookie of the Year.

I’m not forecasting a problem here. Look, not at all saying Skenes will make a stink, not at all saying this version of the Pirates would buck at at least giving the kid a million. Point is, this is one of those things the league will notice, and so will the other kids. Skenes didn’t have to make his bonus last as he toiled through the minors either, so he’s probably not dying for cash, not to mention his social media start girlfriend can probably pick up a tab here and there I’d imagine.

I say, kill two birds with one stone. Approach Paul with an offer to buy out his arbitration and entry level contract right now. Especially since he’ll get a full year of service time for Rookie of the Year most likely. The clock is ticking.

The Pirates have leverage right now in that they could give him a large raise in the years they were only obligated to pay him league minimum. But again, it’s leverage that has an ever shrinking shelf life.

Yup, I’m talking a Julio Rodriguez or Jackson Chourio type deal.

I’d offer him 7 years 150 million and have a little room to go higher. This would lock him up through 2031, his age 29 season. The Pirates can do this and still have a payroll under 130 next year.

This is at least competitive with what he’d get through arbitration and factors in a big payday for the couple years of free agency. It’s an AAV of 21.4 Million and the Pirates could weight it around Reynolds and Keller’s expensive years to make it work. They can even make it incentive laden, I’m sure Paul thinks he’ll be a finalist for Cy Young like 7 times. lol

It gives Paul insurance against injury, more money right now and a shot at entering free agency in his prime, or, should baseball economics come to their senses, stay right here.

This doesn’t have to happen this offseason, but if it doesn’t, take all the numbers I just spewed and add 25-30 million easy for the same end date.

Either way, it would be good form for the Pirates to give him a raise. It would also show the only surviving member of the management team from Gerrit Cole’s handling, Bob Nutting, learned something from the experience. That bad blood from being slapped in the face can spoil even the most well kept locker room.

3. What to Do with All These Pitchers

The Pirates are mighty deep at a position of need and it’s weird to say as a Pirates fan, but they have more starting pitching than they can use.

I puked in my mouth when I wrote that. It took everything in me to ignore 40 years of baseball cliche’s and type such blasphemy.

Jared Jones and Bailey Falter are both on the IL, so for now, we’ll take them out of the equation. I believe both will pitch again for the Pirates in 2024, and the team has put forward the same belief, but for this talk, to us, they are out of the picture.

That’s how insane I want to get when I talk about the depth.

Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller will be here. Keller isn’t hurt, team reported that, and Paul Skenes while needing managed, has already had the team alter their pre-season limit suggestions, plus, they did such a great job limiting him early, he’s really just getting on a roll now.

Now we get to some other parts currently being used.

Quinn Priester, sometimes starter, sometimes bullpen option, the team sees him as a starter moving forward, but they’ll use him as they need to this year.

Luis Ortiz has been largely in the same role Quinn Priester finds himself, until recently, when given opportunity, Ortiz took advantage, and now has fans asking how can you consider moving him out of the rotation.

Both of these guys are under cheap team control for years to come, both are nowhere near their ceilings, both are still far from locking down a spot for the long haul.

Veterans Marco Gonzales who just returned from the IL and Martin Perez have playoff and high leverage starts under their belts. Gonzales has a team option for next year, Perez doesn’t. Without one of them the rotation has no left hander. Perez has sputtered recently since returning from his own IL stint and he owns a wealth of bullpen experience.

Ortiz and Priester both have options, but Quinn would be the much more likely to be sent down even though he’s performing.

In the minors Braxton Ashcraft is running critically low on innings to give, but he’s been a beast this year both in AA and AAA, and he’s already on the 40-man. Have to believe if for some reason the 6 I spoke to weren’t enough, or a couple were to get injured before Jones and or Falter are healthy, then Braxton would be an option. Mike Burrows continues to work his way back too, but it’s hart to think he’s starting games for this team, he’d just have to jump too many hurdles for opportunity this year.

Next year of course they’ll welcome back Johan Oviedo in some capacity too.

I can see a world where the Pirates might be compelled to give something from this group in exchange for a bat. And I mean a competitor. A team like the Orioles, might be willing to give up someone either blocked or potentially down to a year of control for some help where they’re not all that deep. Keep in mind they only have Burnes for sure this year.

You’ll hate this idea but a guy like Ortiz might bring you back something really offensively helpful. Just think about it, swear to yourself in the bathroom, and after you’ve really thought it through, maybe we can talk about it. It’s just a thought. That’s not the guy I’d want to move, but Perez or Gonzales don’t return right now help in my mind. Priester is a bit too untested to help them now. Ortiz looks like a guy who could really break out, and while I selfishly want that here, I can’t deny Ashcraft and Chandler are coming like freight trains.

If Falter were healthy, I might suggest him.

If you want to poach a team that’s in it, you’re going to have to give something that helps them either solve a roster problem, meaning Rule 5 protection or out of option guys, expiring contract soon types coming this way for the Pirates to deal with. Or it helps them now too. Those kind of trades don’t happen a lot because nobody wants to subtract a damn thing, but this team might well need to be open to it and so might a team in dire need of starting pitching in a league full of teams not sure they want to sell.

Perez gets you a lottery ticket. Gonzales, if you pick up his buyout for 2025, might get you a lottery ticket or two.

Our own high end prospects like Ashcraft or Chandler, well you’d have to get back help now with control. That’s not going to come from a team that’s in it, that’s gotta come from a team that is out or knows they will be. And they probably have to know next year isn’t likely to be better.

Open your minds. I sure hope Cherington has. They’re absolutely blessed with pitching, if you sell any of it, it has to count.

4. The Pirates are Gaining Steam at a Good Time

It’s impressive because they haven’t been terribly healthy lately. The Bucs rolled into the All Star Break stomping on the necks of a willing to lay down arms foe in Chicago but they’ve been playing good baseball on the way there too.

The baseball world will be watching, don’t think this management team is ignorant to that fact. Baseball wants Paul Skenes, and while it’s never worked for Mike Trout, the pressure to make this a playoff team will do nothing but mount in Pittsburgh as long as he’s a Pirate.

The teams in front of the Pirates for the Wild Card are in weird positions aside from the Braves. The Braves did one thing wrong this year and it’s to wake up in the NL East where the Phillies are an absolute wagon. Any other division and they’re right there even without Acuna.

There are really two spots open here, currently occupied by St. Louis and New York. The Cards know this team isn’t staying together heading into 2025, I can’t believe for one second they thought they did enough to be a playoff team in 2024. That said, this is a proud organization and their ownership won’t just ignore an opportunity. They likely don’t sell off now but I quite frankly think they’re a fraud. Their run differential of -38 sticks out like a sore thumb amongst every team currently in the Wild Card if the season ended today. In fact, the next lowest is the Mets at +13.

Yes, before you run to Google, the Pirates are -9.

Wins matter more than run differential, but the Cardinals don’t smell sustainable to me. The Mets’ payroll is insane, so to say their inclusion in the Wild Card is a surprise is kinda stupid, of course they should at least be a .500 ball club and in this MLB, .500 has you in the race, they’re a bit better than that, but just a bit. I have no idea what the Mets will do. I can’t imagine they’re anxious to add a bunch more payroll, but I’m not sure Steve Cohen can force himself not to if he has a chance to make the playoffs and prove he and his countless GMs at this point weren’t total buffoons in building this decrepit roster.

The Diamondbacks and Padres are both there too, the next two, just a half game in front of the upstart Pirates. On paper, far superior rosters, in application, not so much, they certainly can’t pitch with Pittsburgh and some of their counted upon players really haven’t shown up. That could change in the stretch run. Either could add, the snakes are probably close to tapped though. The Padres always seem to be the team that “gives up their farm” for whoever is available, and it’s funny, every year they still have a farm to “give up all of”.

The Bucs are right there, and playing as well as any of those clubs.

Yes, we’ve seen them swoon after the All Star Break before. I’ll save you the comment, of course they could fall flat on their face, even if they add players. That’s why we play the games.

One thing’s for sure, it’s July 15th, Steelers Training Camp opens like next week and the Pirates are still relevant.

Not that they ever aren’t to me, but they’re really in this thing.

5. The Day to Day

For me, this is heaven. Every day looking at the MLB scoreboard, checking the standings, monitoring the injury situation for upcoming opponents. Listening for trade rumors not about deconstructing my team but potentially building on it.

Wondering what the teams the Pirates are battling with are thinking. Will the Cubs throw in the towel or stubbornly try to bully their way back into the race? Will the Brewers really just hold guys on expiring contracts, they’ve moved guys before while in the playoff pole posiiton.

How about the Reds, are they going to try to improve or just ride it out with the kids and let it happen organically another year?

All of this stuff we Pirates fans have largely been locked out of since 2018. We are finally back to having a team that at least allows us to participate in all the fun post All Star Break baseball has to offer.

It’ll stress us out, bust out those old DK Pittsburgh Sports foam bricks when you’re watching peeps. But it’s a good stress. The kind that has you sneaking to the bathroom on a date with your wife to check the score real quick. The kind that has you ducking out of a wedding to see if the game is on at the bar.

The kind that has you rethinking that Pittsburgh tradition of the “F the hurricanes, it’s cheaper September Outer Banks Vacation”.

This is what it’s all about.

Are they good enough? I mean, for what? To sneak in and have a series of miracles take place, yeah. Good enough to bet your kid’s college fund? Um, no.

What they are is competitive, and in it deep enough that it would take a stretch of futility quite frankly they illustrated isn’t in them by going 55 games without losing 3 straight, multiple times to have them completely slip out.

By mid September, we could easily be looking back on a run that never really got started, to me, that just means we’ll know better what to expect next year when they’re even better suited for the task at hand.

Yeah, I’m going to enjoy this, regardless of outcome. The league actually matters down the stretch when your team is involved, that’s good for baseball in this city, even if it ends with a thud.

MLB Draft Deep Dive: Utilizing Sim Scores for Player Comparisons – Joe Boyd

7-15-24 – By Joe Boyd – @Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Fangraphs was a bit late to the game to update their MLB Draft rankings/scouting grades this year.  So the COMPS article is more of a retrospective look at the Bucco picks for the draft rather than a more speculative piece.  

With the 9th overall pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Konnor Griffin, a SS/OF prep prospect. 

The merits of the pick and if it aligns with the Pirates current window can be left to the rest of the site, those guys are better prepared to answer that question.  I’m here to compare him to similar players based on those Fangraphs scouting reports.

For those that don’t know about the COMPS article, I have the data from the Fangraphs prospects writers over the years and I compare the Pirates picks to historical information.  So Kiley Daniel, Eric Longenhagen, and the rest of that team will provide scouting grades on the draft prospects and the minor league players around the league, and I utilize z-scores to see the most similar players to the MLB draft prospects.  Here’s a longer explanation, if you are interested. 

The place I want to start is the Fangraphs scouting report on Konnor Griffin:  “Griffin went wire-to-wire as one of the most talented high school players from this draft class during its two-plus year scouting window. He was a super-projectable SS/RF as an underclassman. He has already grown considerably stronger and is now a hulking 6-foot-4, 205 pounds… he’s probably a little too stiff to play the infield in pro ball. The speed at which Griffin can go zero to 60 at his size is incredible… Griffin’s bat-to-ball track record is very good across multiple years on the showcase circuit, but long levers often make him late on fastballs, and this will probably get worse in pro ball… He still has incredible twitch for a prospect his size and has a shot to have both plus-plus raw power and speed at maturity (only one is projected here), plus it’s probably worth trying to develop Griffin in center field. The more he focuses solely on that, the better his feel for the outfield could become. Toolsy high school outfielders like this typically come off the board in the middle third of the first round.”

From here, I would typically suggest a Comparable player that would excite the fanbase and a comparable Pirate.  But since we’re doing things differently this year, I’ll try to do a Floor, a Ceiling, and a more likely option.  I’m going to include the Sim Score, that’s just how similar the player is to Griffin, the lower the score the more similar.

The Floor

Jon Gray Jr – OF – MIL – 2018 – SIM: 8.94

Ryder Green – OF – NYY – 2019 – SIM: 9.21

Brennen Davis – OF – CHC – 2022 – SIM: 8.03

This just illustrates the risk of a pick like this.  These players were all highly touted prospects with loud tools that were far away from the Majors.  The variables in play for a prospect at 18 years old are many.  Griffin has a real hole in his scouting report, with long levers, he has difficulty catching up to velocity.  If that problem is not corrected, he is likely to join these players as forgotten prospects/busts.  Griffin does, however have the chance to resurface as a pitcher, but I’m not going to elaborate on that in this article.

The Ceiling

Julio Rodriguez – OF – SEA – 2018 – SIM: 8.95

Now this should have you salivating.  Imagine plugging Rodriguez into the lineup with Paul Skenes on the mound.  The Pirates could have a duo of superstars in the near future.  In 2018, Rodriguez was 18 years old and Fangraphs had the future value on his tools at:

Hit: 45 

Power: 58 

Speed: 40 

Fielding: 50 

Arm: 55

Just looking at where Griffin is today, based on the same scout, he has comparable Power, he’s significantly faster with a better fielding tool and better arm.  If everything clicks and Griffin can develop that hit tool to handle velocity, this is the top end and a game changing draft pick.

Realistic Result:

Heliot Ramos – OF – SFG – 2018 – SIM: 8.94

Ramos, a former 19th overall pick,  has been a player that I’ve admired for some time.  He was as highly ranked as the 61st prospect in baseball in 2021.  His profile took a serious dip over the last few years and he fell to a 35 FV rated prospect, which is effectively worthless.  This year, however, he’s already produced 2.4 WAR with a batting average of .298 and an OPS of .888 and 14 homers.  It took several years, and several turns in his development to hit in the Majors consistently, but hopefully he is finally there. In this scenario, Griffin could eventually develop into a strong contributor, but if it takes longer than anticipated it could affect the contention window that we all expect to open soon and he may eventually become a trade chip.

Pirates Comp

Lonnie White – OF – PIT – 2022 – SIM: 9.52

Usually, I have to search the list to find the most comparable Pirate, but White is nearly the most comparable player in the database.  White is yet another cautionary tale as his delays can be attributed to injury.  He is another player that needs to ensure his hit tool develops if he’s going to be able to tap into the other potential tools in his arsenal.  Both Griffin and White are uber athletes and are going to need to tap into that, but also refine their skills if they are to be in the Buccos everyday lineup.

To conclude, Griffin is the type of player that becomes special.  He has all the tools and all the ability to be an absolute star.  If everything lines up, this team could be special and this player could be the final piece of the puzzle.  That path is littered with former stars and can’t-miss prospects, however.  Griffin must develop and navigate his journey perfectly to hit the timing with a Pirates contender.  A slip up or an injury could derail that timing, which could jeopardize the stars aligning which could result in Konnor being a reliever or a trade chip.  It’s an intriguing pick, no doubt.. One that comes with a myriad of risks.

With the 37th selection, the Pirates selected Prep RHP, Levi Sterling 

Already 6’5 and 200 pounds, he has the MLB frame that could also had muscle/velocity and he’s got a repeatable delivery.  More from Longenhagen, “Skinny 6-foot-5 righty with relatively advanced repertoire and effortless delivery. Short, repeatable arm stroke, especially for his size. Fastball was in the upper-80s last fall with Team USA, more 92-93 this spring. Secondary pitches all have distinct shape and movement; Sterling lives around the zone with them but lacks precise command. None of the secondary weapons are particularly nasty right now, requires projecting on Sterling throwing everything harder. Lower-variance high school prospect with backend starter projection.”

This profile is extremely intriguing, however it must be taken with considerable salt considering the player is so young.  When looking through his best COMPS, I struggle to find a comparable player at his age.  

He compares favorably to Ethan Hankins who is in the Cleveland system.  Originally, the top Prep Arm in the 2018 draft, he has plateaued quite a bit and proves to be a cautionary tale as these players age/develop.  
The Ceiling for Sterling, based on the Fangraphs grades would be Jack Flaherty – STL – 2017.  They have nearly identical frames and similar pitch mix.  In 2017, Flaherty was 21, however, so that could bode well for Sterling.

Pirates Comp

The player that I think Sterling compares to for the Pirates is Brennan Malone.  He shows up in the database as both a Pirate and as a Diamondback.  A top piece that was returned in the Starling Marte trade, Malone has seen his career derailed by injury.  He, too, was a former first round pick but has barely pitched since having shoulder issues in 2022. 

Malone is both the risk and the reward with such a selection.  Development of prospects is such a war of attrition that taking an arm this young, this early is bound to have pitfalls. If the Pirates can develop Sterling like their other more recent successes, he has the frame and delivery to rise the ranks rather quickly.

With the 47th pick and their final selection for day 1

The Pirates selected another prep bat, Wyatt Sanford.  Here’s his breakdown from Fangraphs: “Perhaps the best high school defensive player in the whole draft, Sanford is a precocious leathersmith with velcro hands. Even at a lanky 6-foot-1, he plays smooth, low-to-the-ground defense and has good range, and he should grow into plus arm strength as he fills out. Offensively, Sanford has a great looking lefty swing but lacks feel for sweetspot contact. It’s fun to watch him uncoil and he could conceivably add more than a grade of raw power on a pro strength program, but Sanford’s contact performance is indicative of a below-average hitter. If he improves as a hitter in pro ball, he’ll have everyday shortstop tools. If not, he’s a glove-first utilityman.”

When we look at COMPS, it so rarely coalesces around one player.  But here are the top COMPs for Sanford:

Brice Turang – MIL – 2020 SIM: 3.02

Brice Turang – MIL – 2022 SIM: 4.03

Brice Turang – MIL – 2019 SIM: 4.19

Brice Turang – MIL – 2018 SIM: 4.64

So rather than provide a ceiling or floor for Sanford, I’ll just discuss Turang.  Turang was a glove first prospect that never hit prior to pro ball.  In 2020, Turang was a 50 FV prospect, and here is what Longenhagen wrote about him: “Turang has two profile-carrying attributes in his ball/strike recognition and defense, while the rest of the profile struggles because he doesn’t square balls up very well. He has a chance to be a plus defender who reaches base a lot, which is basically what J.P. Crawford‘s skill base was, even when he was struggling…”

Since Sanford is a glove-first shortstop, he’ll need to figure out his path to everyday baseball on the offensive side.  Perhaps that means he will develop plate control like Turang that give him a short to stick.  At worst, he looks to be a defensive utility option as his defense should provide his floor. 



2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Lightning Recap

7-15-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

After months of lead up and a seemingly never ending stream of mock drafts, hypotheticals, and fan “wish lists,” Day 1 of the 2024 MLB Entry Draft has come and gone. On the first day of the event the Pittsburgh Pirates made three selections, picks 9, 37, & 47. Having three selections in the top 50 is a surefire way for the club to infuse some very exciting talent into the system. While many (myself included) expected Pittsburgh to target a “fast” rising piece with pick 9, when the Bucs were on the clock the Front Office stepped to the podium and decided to take a swing for the fences.

Pick 9 – Konnor Griffin, SS/OF

With their first pick in the draft, GM Ben Cherington selected Konnor Griffin, the
Gatorade National High School Player of the year out of Jackson Preparatory High
School. Most outlets and scouts alike considered Griffin to be the best prep player on
the board. And it is easy to see why.

Griffin is a hulking presence, standing 6’4” and weighing in at 205lbs, the tools leap off
the page and are immediately visible in any and all video. His calling card is his raw
power, which most place a current 60 grade on with a future projection for close to 80
raw power. If that isn’t enough to dream on, he also has been clocked as a plus to
double plus runner with a double plus arm, and near plus defensive ability. While Griffin
is most commonly considered a shortstop, there is a belief that he could very easily find
a home patrolling centerfield.

His senior year line is pretty mind-boggling:
.559 average, .690 OBP, .966 slugging, 1.656 OPS, 13 doubles, 4 triples, 9 homers, 85
steals.

The upside is the thing of dreams. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel compared the ceiling to
Fernando Tatis Jr. While that is certainly easy to dream on, you’ve also got to consider
the downside that is present in this profile. Think Elijah Green. Similarly to Green, there
are questions about Griffin’s hit tool and how it is going to translate to pro ball. What
remains to be seen is how the approach and hit tool will play.

One reason to remain hopeful is that there are some that have mentioned that Griffin
has improved his swing in 2024. Hopefully Pirate fans will get to see how this translates
in the low minors once he is officially signed and before the minor league season ends.

Picking 9th overall this is the type of upside a team has to feel very good about securing
for their organization.

Pick 37 – Levi Sterling, RHP

The Pirates returned to the High School ranks for their second Day 1 selection securing
the 6’5” right hander out of Los Angeles, CA.

Sterling throws a very metric-friendly fastball that he can get up to 94, a high spin curve,
slider, and flashes a changeup that shows a lot of fade. Many note that Sterling’s
command and projectability are two major selling points to this profile. When it comes
to drafting pitching, there is every reason to be excited. Pitching development is the
strength of this organization, so I am inclined to completely trust in the process with this
selection. This is the kind of kid that you get into this organization and watch how they
take off. Very exciting addition here.

Pick 47 – Wyatt Sanford, SS

With their final selection of the first day the Pirates added a third High School player.
This time they went with a guy considered to be a no-doubt shortstop.

Hailing from Independence High School and with a commitment to attend Texas A&M in
the fall, Sanford gets very high grades on his glove & athleticism. There is some
question about his ultimate offensive upside, it is hard not to like the profile. Like most
prep picks Sanford’s power is relying mostly on projection. He does have what looks to
be an at least average hit tool.

In recent drafts and international signings a lot of the shortstops have been shortstops
in name only. With Sanford, he looks to be destined to stick at the position.
All in all, Day 1 has been fruitful for the organization. These three players provide a
much needed infusion of high end and exciting talent that you always want to obtain.
There are a lot more pieces that will fall into place for this draft class, but priority #1 will
be enticing these youngsters to forgo their college commitments and donning the black
and gold.

With an fun Day 1 in the books, I can’t wait for the rest of this class to take shape.

Pirates/White Sox Series Recap

7/14/24 By Drew Cagle – @cagles_bagels on X

The Pirates entered their final series before the All-Star break looking to continue positive momentum from a series win in Milwaukee. Facing the Chicago White Sox, who entered play with baseball’s lowest winning percentage, it was a series that the Bucs needed to take care of.

Friday (W 4-1)

The Pirates got off to a slow start offensively, being stymied by starter Garrett Crochet and reliever Jonathan Cannon over the first four innings. Down one-nothing in the fifth, the bats began to heat up. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Joey Bart reached base to begin the inning, and were driven home by Jared Triolo (RBI single) and Michael A. Taylor (sacrifice fly).

Still facing Cannon, the Pirates added on a pair of runs the following inning on a Nick Gonzales RBI double and a Ke’Bryan Hayes RBI single. 

Pirates starter Marco Gonzales made his return from a forearm strain that had sidelined him since April. The southpaw was hit hard and allowed several baserunners, but held the White Sox to just a single run on seven hits. 

In the bullpen, Carmen Mlodzinski, Colin Holderman, and David Bednar maintained the lead over the final four frames, allowing only a single hit. Bednar returned from the injured list to record his 17th save of the season.

Pirates Player of the Game: Ke’Bryan Hayes (2-4, 2 singles, RBI, stolen base)

Saturday (W 6-2)

Looking to secure the series win, the Pirates sent 25-year old Luis Ortiz to the hill. Ortiz received run support right away, as Andrew McCutchen doubled and Bryan Reynolds singled in the top of the first inning. Oneil Cruz grounded into a force out, bringing home McCutchen. Over the 5 ⅔ innings that Ortiz worked, he pounded the strike zone, punching out five, while allowing four hits and one run.

Needing a run to take back the lead, the Bucs quickly had baserunners. A single by Hayes and a hit by pitch on Jack Suwinski set the table for Yasmani Grandal. The Pirates’ catcher bunted foul with 2 strikes for the first out, but singles by McCutchen and Reynolds (the latter scoring a pair) gave the Black and Gold a 3-1 advantage. A White Sox run in the 8th cut into that lead, but another Reynolds 2-run single, paired with a sacrifice fly by Oneil Cruz, put the game out of reach.

In extending the lead, the Pirates allowed Bednar to rest for another day, a small victory on a day that the team won by a 6-2 final score. Young right-hander Kyle Nicolas recorded his first major league win, tossing 1 ⅓ scoreless innings.

Pirates Player of the Game: Bryan Reynolds (4-5, 4 singles, 4 RBIs)

Sunday (W 9-4)

One win away from reaching the .500 mark, the Pirates turned to Mitch Keller. However, the White Sox had other ideas early on. The first three batters reached base in the first inning, leading to a run scoring on an Eloy Jiminez double play.

The Black and Gold answered back in the third inning. A Chad Kuhl cutter clipped Bryan Reynolds in the leg with two outs. Oneil Cruz sent a towering double to right-center field, scoring the Pittsburgh left fielder.

The back-and-forth nature of play continued. Andrew Benintendi socked a solo home run to give Chicago the lead back in the third. Joey Bart deposited another cutter into the left-center field bleachers, plating three, and taking the lead back for the Pirates, 4-2.

Quinn Priester came on in relief of Keller after only three frames, snapping a 49-start streak of Mitch completing five innings. The Illinois native allowed one run over two innings of work.

In the eighth inning, the Pirates offense flexed its muscle on Chicago reliever Jordan Leasure, plating four runs. Nick Gonzales scored two with a triple to left that Benintendi dove after, allowing for the runners to advance. A sacrifice fly by Rowdy Tellez and an RBI double by Joshua Palacios ended the scoring.

Chicago answered with a run in the seventh, but Bryan Reynolds continued his hot series in the following half-inning. The All-Star swatted his 18th round-tripper of the season, extending the lead to 9-4. Nicolas, Mlodzinski, Holderman and Dennis Santana closed things out, and helped the Pirates even up their record at 48-48.

Pirates Player of the Game: Joey Bart (1-4, 3-run home run)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are .500 at the All Star Break, First Time Since 2016

7-14-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

They’ve been pronounced dead countless times this season. The front office, buffoons for claiming they had what they believed to be a competitive ball club put together.

Stubborn in an effort to make their meager offseason investments work, they forced us to watch some “bad” players. Some of them pushed through it, some still haven’t managed to put together anything to merit the faith.

Two Rookie Phenom pitchers burst on the scene, one on the verge of history with every outing he makes. Paired expertly with a recently extended veteran hurler and a barrage of capable arms behind them to fill in the gaps, some we haven’t even tapped into yet.

A bullpen fortified with young fireballers and veteran back end complete with high end pedigree.

An offense that has pushed through a putrid month to scratch and claw their way into looking very league average, with a penchant for hitting the long ball.

Let’s do some cool cypherin’.

Last year, this club had a fairly large jump in their record of 14 wins, to do so again would almost assuredly put them in a Wild Card spot.

Through 96 games in 2023 the Pirates owned a record of 42-54, and this year, they sit at 48-48.

66 games remain.

For this team to finish with the record they had last year, they’d have to go 28-38. .500 would obviously require 33-33. A 14 game improvement would take 42-24 probably a lot to ask as currently constructed. A little help, you probably land somewhere in the middle of those two figures and you’re in the dance conversation.

It’s not too late, I believe they will add, even if they shed some vets here and there who don’t fit as well anymore along the way. Just a couple nice additions and I believe they have enough to push for this.

Like I said a few weeks back in 5 Pirates Thoughts at 5, what this team does at the deadline would be determined largely by what this group of players did in this run up to the All Star Break. All they did was go 14-11, finally break this ridiculous record of no streaks in either direction and work their team back to .500 on the backs of a 5 game winning steak.

Is it a sure bet? Oh hell no, they come out of the break and face the Phillies, Cardinals and Diamondbacks, but if you want to be in the playoff picture, you have to beat playoff teams.

For the first time since 2018, I think they have a team that is capable of entering every series feeling like they have a chance to win.

They’re better. They need help. They aren’t anywhere close to perfect, but they are a rapidly improving baseball team that has ridden some of the best pitching in the game and a sub standard offense to the break even point with about a third of the season remaining.

Contending baseball, yup, in the very definition of the word, they are.

You don’t have to ignore all the warts to be enthusiastic about what you’re seeing, you just have to realize while you’ve been trained on those warts, the team has been digging some others out at the core elsewhere.

Your baseball team is coming together, even if you hated the plan, even if you believe the owner will never get it over the top, the team is becoming something that can hang with anyone, and take what they should.

Sometimes the first step is the hardest, we’ll see in this last 66 games if this team and whatever they add into it has what it takes to bushwhack their way into a winning season.

Starter Spotlight: Ready To Shuster The Door With A Kuhl Sweep

7-13-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

That title is a reach but here we go.

The Pirates finally broke through with their first 3-game win streak in over 4 months but can they get their first series sweep since March?

Starting in what is probably an opener role for the White Sox today is LHP Jared Shuster with former Pirates pitcher, RHP Chad Kuhl, likely slated to work a bulk role in relief.

So let’s overview both just in case, starting with Shuster, who came over to the White Sox from the Braves in an off-season trade after struggling to break through in Atlanta’s rotation over his 2023 rookie year. He posted a 5.81 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP over 52.2 innings in his first MLB season but he has looked a bit better with Chicago, albeit in a more limited role. Entering play today, Shuster has a 3.52 ERA and 1.41 WHIP through 38.1 innings this year.

Transitioning from starter to reliever has hidden some of the EXTREME issues with Shuster. He has gotten decent results despite having very poor strikeout and walk rates – with his K-BB% at the 14th worst among pitchers with 30+ innings pitched.

The one thing he has done well is limiting hard contact as his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all in the top 20th percentile in all of baseball.

Looking at his arsenal, he’s mostly relied on a low-90s 4-seam, low-80s changeup and a mid-80s slider. His slider is almost exclusively used against LHH as his main pitch in those instances, running down and in against opposing batters. Against RHH, he roles out the fastball center cut and the changeup dropping down and in to generate the weak contact.

None of the pitches rate all that favorably but they have been able to over-perform expected outcomes due to the small sample size granted in a relief role but his soft stuff should be the target early on for Bucs bats today.

Final note on this guy, Shelton is probably going to stack righties against him (even with Cutch likely sitting due to the hamstring pull) but that is a poor idea.

For one, he’s clearly an opener and has lasted less than 3 frames in 15 of his last 17 games. He maxed at 64 pitches in an outing during a game last month but has mostly been in the 20-30 pitch range.

For another, left-handed hitters have performed better against Shuster with an .862 OPS against in 61 plate appearances this season, compared to .620 OPS for righties through 104 plate appearances.

Checking into Kuhl, who has had a roller coaster career and has had some bad breaks in both his personal and professional life, he gets another big league opportunity on the south side of Chicago.

He started the season in the minor leagues but since joining the White Sox, Kuhl has thrown 17.1 innings over 6 games with a 4.15 ERA and 16 strikeouts and 12 walks in that time.

Kuhl offers a mid-90s sinker and high-80s slider as his main offerings, adding in a high-70s sweeper against RHH and pairing a low-90s cutter with a high-80s changeup when facing LHH.

It’s a small sample size but the slider has clearly been the strikeout pitch for Kuhl as he has notched 9 of his Ks with opponents batting just .107 against the pitch. On the other hand, his sinker has been CRUSHED with a .400 oBA and a .750 oSLG with an average exit velocity of 96.3 against the pitch.

When he leaves the sinker elevated, it’s a meatball and batters should smash it every time. Lay off the slider until you get 2-strike counts and then just try to foul off anything close because the sinker is the clear target for hitters today.

Lefties have been excellent against Kuhl this year, and is another reason why Shelty should stack them from the start. They have a .953 OPS compared to a .388 OPS for righties.

The Pirates have won 5 of 6 this past week but have a chance for a sweep today against the worst team in baseball and finish the first half at the .500 mark. Go lefty-heavy and attack the pitches you should be attacking.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Bubba Chandler and Termarr Johnson participate in MLB Futures Game

7-13-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

With Paul Skenes dominating MLB and starting for the National League in the 2024 All-Star Game, much of the focus has been on the 22-year old phenom, but alongside Bryan Reynolds, the duo aren’t the only members of the Pirates organization getting recognition during the All-Star festivities.

Due to Skenes graduating from prospect status, the Pirates have a new top-two when it comes to their prospects, as starting pitcher Bubba Chandler, currently in AA-Altoona, and second baseman Termarr Johnson, currently in High-A Greensboro, took over as the top prospects in the Pirates organization.

Both were honored with selections for MLB’s 2024 Futures Game, an event, which began in 1999, to showcase the best young talent in baseball on a national stage and recently became a part of the All-Star festivities, much like the MLB Draft.

As for the game itself, it was a get on base for free clinic, especially or American League pitching prospects. Walks, hit by pitches and defensive ineptitude loaded the bases 3 consecutive innings for the NL at one point. Termarr got on in a more traditional fashion.

He’d finish the day 1 for 2 with a run scored. Solid outing for the youngster who hopes to cap the night off with a win in the first ever Futures Game Skills Contest.

Bubba Chandler was told before the game he’d be closing this one out for the National League, and I’m quite sure he pictured a tighter contest when he was informed.

In his one inning of work, 1 hit to Kyle Teel who looked great himself today, 1 K and he hit 97-99 on the gun routinely. Looks noticeably more polished than many of his counterparts.

He shrugged it right off and finished his job.

NL wins this one 6-1 and the Bucco kids showed well.

Chandler has been electric for the Curve in AA this year, posting a 3.53 ERA, 77 strikeouts and a 1.01 WHIP in 63.2 innings across 14 starts and 16 total appearances. Arguably more impressive is his .185 opponent’s batting average allowed, a showcase of the above-average stuff that Chandler has the potential to continue to grow with.

The 21-year old right-hander already has a four-pitch mix, which features a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup, all of which have pretty solid command and control already. The worries come from the curveball and changeup, pitches that Chandler has used mainly below the zone as potential plus-chase pitches, bringing down his strikeout rates and strike rates just tad.

The real fun comes with the fastball and slider, with the fastball touching upper-90s at times while being consistent in the mid-90s and having a ton of spin and movement that fools hitters. Much like we’ve seen from Jared Jones, Chandler’s slider has become a great secondary pitch, using immense horizontal and even some good vertical movement to make the pitch a true strikeout offering.

Blend all of that together for Chandler, and it’s no shock he got an offer to be in the Futures Game, and with his athleticism being a massive plus as a former high school quarterback, who had an offer from Dabo Swinney and Clemson mind you, the sky is the limit for Chandler, with a potential debut coming sometime in 2025.

As for Johnson, he’s already had an interesting beginning to his professional career, especially in 2024, hitting just .195 and .204 in April and May this year with High-A Greensboro, but since the calendar turned to June, Johnson has truly tapped into his potential as a plus-bat with a ton of power and contact ability.

Johnson slashed .266/.372/.426 with 4 HR and 13 RBIs in June, and he hasn’t stopped in July, slashing .400/.526/.667 with 2 HR and 7 RBIs in eight game so far in July.

The left-handed second baseman became an immediate prize in the 2022 MLB Draft, being considered as one of the best high school hitters over the past decade and change. Going in the top-five of that class was never in doubt for Johnson, but he even garnered number one overall potential, due to his superb hand-eye coordination, his bat speed and his ability to produce power out of his 5-foot-8, 175 pound frame.

As a shortstop in high school, many knew that Johnson would make the change to second base, as his range and hands don’t fit the profile as an even average shortstop, but defense most surely won’t carry Johnson through the system, it will be his bat, a bat that has the potential to be the best the Pirates have seen in quite some time.

Unlike Chandler, it’s not a definitive take to assume Johnson will absolutely be on the roster in 2025, but if he continues to tear through the minor leagues, he’ll stake his claim at some point, with 2026 likely being his first full-time season on the big league roster.

For the Pirates, Chandler has the potential down the road to be another fabulous addition to an already loaded starting pitch staff, assuming they all stay healthy of course, and the belief is that Chandler has the stuff to be elite at the big-league level if he continue to throw strikes with efficiency. Johnson is easily the best bat the Pirates have in their system, and that won’t change until he graduates. The tools are there, he just has to use them consistently, and he’ll be a book-in second base option for a long-time, especially if the defense can even be average.

Watch these guys grow, and you’ll be amazed with what you see, and congrats to both of them for appearing and playing in the 2024 MLB Futures Game.

Starter Spotlight: Flexin On Flexen

7-13-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With a series-opening victory last night, the Pirates will look to keep the momentum going this afternoon against Chris Flexen, who has struggled out of the White Sox rotation with a 4.95 ERA through 91 innings this season.

A bit of a journeyman, Flexen, on his third team in less than a year, has an identical career 4.95 ERA across his 7 MLB seasons but notched quality starts in 3 of his last 4 appearances.

Woof

Not a lot to like looking at his metrics as his velocity is among the lowest in MLB. His xERA (4.53) is 14th highest among starting pitchers with 90+ innings pitched and his strikeout rate of 17.2% ranks 8th lowest in that group.

Looking at his pitches, Flexen offers a low-90s 4-seam and high-80s cutter as his main options with a low-80s changeup, low-70s curve and high-70s slider – all of which have fairly pretty poorly overall for the veteran righty.

His fastball has been the most used and most hittable with 8 of his 16 home runs coming courtesy of the pitch. That and the cutter are typically thrown up and outside against LHH – well within reach of someone like Oneil Cruz to make critical impact against either of them.

He’s been especially struggling against LHH at home, with a 1.086 OPS against in those instances and half of his 16 home runs coming in 98 total plate appearances.

Flexen works hard stuff up and soft stuff down so anything spinning and dropping low is typically a breaking pitch. Anything up should be ambushed, especially early in counts. Chance for the Pirates to get a winning streak, a series win and chance for a sweep ahead of the break today!

Let’s Go Bucs!

Should the Pirates Trade Aroldis Chapman Regardless of The Standings?

7-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It seems like the Pirates dumping the remainder of a 10.5 million dollar contract most seasons recently would be a given, but this year regardless of how realistic you see it, they’re functionally “in this”.

The Bucs could keep him as whomever they’d trade him to would undoubtedly be trying to bolster their roster for a playoff run with the big lefty and they supposedly have the same aspirations.

Last year the Royals moved Chapman after he pitched 29.1 innings for them and in exchange they received from the Texas Rangers LHP Cole Ragans and OF Roni Cabrera. Cole has turned himself into arguably the best young left handed starter in baseball.

Listen, the Royals were bad last year, dealing Chapman was an easy choice and just because I show you what they got for Aroldis, doesn’t mean the Pirates would do as well. Just means he probably brings back something of value.

The Pirates don’t need to be prospect hungry, but they could use some more offensively oriented help at the minor league level.

A team at or around .500 probably shouldn’t be looking to move anyone, especially someone who regularly takes back end of the bullpen reps. Thing is, I’m not sure he really fills the role as well as some other options the Pirates have such as Colin Holderman or Carmen Mlodzinski.

In other words, Aroldis Chapman in my mind is a rare player who is both potentially expendable and still valuable enough to plausibly return something worth the sacrifice.

The Pirates would be sacrificing depth, in a spot most teams are trying to add to, at a time where it typically makes no sense to do so. When I say this is a rare situation, I mean it, you don’t often get to make decisions like this where you don’t lose or win before you make it. Baseball just doesn’t often allow for that kind of thing.

He’s a 4.00 plus ERA pitcher in 2024. Still has electric stuff, absolutely still a back end of the pen type arm and his reputation precedes him.

I will say, this could send some unwanted mixed messages to your club. You could mask it by bringing in other players to help the club because that would be seen as a shuffling of the deck, but if all you do is move Chapman for a prospect, I’m not sure the team would see it as a move that screams “we’re trying”. If dealing Chapman is part of a series of moves that adds another outfielder or overall improvements to the club, I think most of this is assuaged.

This is going to be interesting, and it really could be on the table regardless of how they see themselves.

Now, should it be?

To me, I think so. For one thing if I’m coaching this team, I probably would prefer using other players who provide a bit more consistency. If I’m a GM, I probably want to use players who have performed at a higher level for 1/8 the price tag.

This would be seen as a dump, and know what, the team wouldn’t care how you felt about it if it were. I don’t care what they call it, to me if it makes sense and you can get a bat that maybe helps next year, or hey, maybe even procure an outfielder who is a bench player on a deep outfield team but takes a larger role here. An old fashioned baseball trade, maybe even retain some of Chapman’s salary to improve the return.

Point is, I’m glad to hear Chapman is being shopped, and I’d advise you as a fan to not necessarily classify it as a salary dump until you’ve seen the entire picture.

It’s rare you can move a player of this caliber and not feel you’ve hurt your team’s chances, to me, this is that sweet spot and I really hope the Pirates can take advantage here.

Canaan Smith-Njigba’s Pirates Tenure: A Retrospective

7/12/24 By Drew Cagle – @cagles_bagels on X

When Jameson Taillon was dealt from the Pirates to the New York Yankees in January 2021, 21-year old outfielder Canaan Smith-Njigba was among the haul that Pittsburgh general manager Ben Cherington received. Infielder Maikel Escotto and pitchers Roansy Contreras and Miguel Yajure completed the trade.

Now just three years after that move, Smith-Njigba is no longer in the Pirates organization. As a matter of fact, he’s not in any organization, becoming a free agent on July 6th, 2024.

This comes after Pittsburgh had placed the outfielder on the Development List back on June 25th. Smith-Njigba was slashing .212/.344/.330 in 54 games at Triple-A in 2024. The Development List serves as a tool for organizations to keep a prospect on their roster, while monitoring his usage. After mere days, Smith-Njigba was released by the Indianapolis Indians.

In looking back on his time as a Pirate, “CSN” appeared in a mere 18 games, hitting .135 and knocking in 5 runs over parts of the 2022 and 2023 campaigns. One of the bright spots of his major league experience came in his debut, doubling off of St. Louis Cardinals closer Giovanni Gallegos as a 9th-inning pinch hitter. Only days later, he suffered a wrist fracture, ending his 2022 season.

In January 2024, the Pirates designated the corner outfielder for assignment. The club needed a 40-man roster spot to sign reliever Aroldis Chapman. Canaan was scooped up by the Seattle Mariners a week later, but returned to Pittsburgh after being waived by Seattle.

It wouldn’t be surprising if Smith-Njigba catches on with another club on a “prove it” minor league deal. His skill set is one that’s desired, featuring a solid mix of contact, speed, power, and arm strength. A teams that is entering a rebuild would be wise to add him and allow him to play his way into a regular role.