Paul Skenes has ripped through MLB and Pittsburgh Pirates franchise records in such a short time, and he’s adding to his list of accolades Tuesday, as Skenes will take the hill for the National League to start the 2024 All-Star Game in Arlington, Texas.
Paul Skenes will start the All-Star Game for the National League.
Get ready for Tuesday night: In the bottom of the first inning, it will likely be Paul Skenes vs. Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
The news broke officially on the Dan Patrick Show, as National League manager and Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo surprised Skenes with the news that he would be starting.
Skenes has been historically superb to begin his MLB career, posting a 6-0 record with a 1.90 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 66.1 IP over his first 12 starts. He also joined Nolan Ryan as only the second pitcher ever to record multiple starts in which he had at least 11 strikeouts while allowing no hits in six or more innings in his most recent outing versus the Milwaukee Brewers.
The LSU product also has the longest streak in Pirates history for consecutive starts with seven or more strikeouts, so his hypothetical trophy case is already filled with accolades that we’ve never seen before, and mind you, he’s doing this as a 22-year old rookie.
Skenes starting the All-Star Game is a no-brainer for the National League, and well, baseball, seeing as the mid-summer classic is designed to put eyes on the best players in the sport, and Skenes is playing like it right now. In all likelihood, he’ll likely pitch one frame, facing the likes of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Gunnar Henderson, three of the brightest stars in baseball right now.
This will be the first time in MLB history that a rookie has gotten the nod to start in the All-Star game since 1995, when Hideo Nomo started for the National League as a representative of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Fernando Valenzuela, Mark Fidrych and Dave Stenhouse round out the list of rookies to start in the mid-summer classic.
Skenes will also be the first Pirates pitcher to take the mound in an All-Star Game as a starter since Jerry Reuss in 1975.
It remains to be seen how the rest of 2024 will treat Skenes, but if he continues on his path of destruction that he’s laid out already, he may even find himself amidst the NL Cy Young conversation, alongside Phillies hurlers Zach Wheeler and Ranger Suarez as well as Braves left-hander Chris Sale.
Congrats to Skenes on a phenomenal accomplishment, and best of luck come Tuesday on the mound in Texas.
A Trebuchet is a type of catapult that uses a rotating arm with a sling attached to the tip to launch a projectile, not too dissimilar to the motion and impact of a bat driving a ball over the fence. For a team who has been leading MLB this month in home runs, you REALLY want to take advantage of that this weekend.
The Pirates have three games standing between them and the All Star Break as they will face the absolute WORST team in MLB this weekend but with one of the best starting pitchers in LHP Garrett Crochet.
In all of baseball, Crochet has the highest fWAR at 3.7, the highest K/9 at 12.47, best xERA at 2.47 and best K-BB rate at 29.3%. That’s a LOT of crazy numbers for an arm who threw 73 MLB innings since 2020 coming into this season. Is it starting to wear down?
His most recent start against the Miami Marlins, Crochet was only able to work 4 innings, allowing 2 runs off 5 hits with 3 walks and 5 strikeouts – his shortest start since April 19 and only the third time this season he walked as many as 3 batters.
The Southside Southpaw primarily works off his high-90s 4-seam which can touch 100 at times and low-90s cutter that has been just unhittable – ranking with the highest run value among all starting pitchers and only behind Guardians closer, Emmanuel Clase.
His fastball has been even better, functioning as his strikeout pitch with 72 of his 146 punch-outs coming off the 4-seam and opponents batting just .189 against the offering when the do make contact.
Paired with those pitches is a mid-80s slider, which breaks down and away from righties, and a less frequent low-90s changeup running down and in against opposing batters.
All four offerings have been weapons for the hard-throwing lefty this season. There’s no sugar-coating it because this might be the toughest starter the Pirates have faced this season – and he pitches best at home with – 2.38 ERA over 64.1 innings at home versus 4.17 through 41 frames outside of Guaranteed Rate Field.
The team should try to work counts as deep as they can against Crochet early and watch for the high heat and low cutters. The slider has resulted in 5 of Crochet’s 10 home runs this season but it’s tough to stay on the heat without being ahead on the breaking stuff.
Big challenge today for the Buccos entering the series in Chicago. Get Crochet out early and go to work against a bullpen with the 4th worst ERA (4.55) in MLB.
The Pittsburgh Pirates head into their final series before the All-Star break on Friday, heading to the other side of Chicago to face the reeling Chicago White Sox.
Pittsburgh is coming off of a massive series victory of the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers, winning the rubber match on Thursday thanks to seven no-hit innings from Paul Skenes and strong efforts from Colin Holderman and Aroldis Chapman to shut things down.
Meanwhile, the White Sox enter this one 41 games under-.500 and coming off a series loss to the Minnesota Twins. Chicago has lost three consecutive series, with their last series win coming against the Colorado Rockies on June 30.
Pittsburgh enters this series 4-3 versus AL Central opponents this season, with the White Sox being just the third team they’ve faced in the division. The Pirates are also 5-5 in July, looking for a massive boost heading into the All-Star break, as a three-game sweep would place them at exactly .500.
To put it kindly, the White Sox have been terrible, having no double digit win total months up to this point. They are a much better team at home though, posting a 17-31 home record compared to a 10-37 road record.
This is the only meeting between the Pirates and White Sox this season.
Pirates:Luis Ortiz I usually reserve Who’s Hot and Who’s Not for position players, but what I have seen from Luis Ortiz recently, and truly all season, has amazed me.
Ortiz will enter his Saturday start versus the White Sox with a 1.13 ERA in July, coming off a 3.22 ERA in June. Swapping between a starting role and long relief role, Ortiz has helped the Pirates in many ways, a Swiss Army knife of sorts, and against a White Sox lineup that hasn’t been great recently(.222 batting average in their last 10 games), I expect Ortiz to continue his 2024 success.
White Sox:Martin Maldonado 2024 has been absolutely dreadful for the White Sox as a whole, but it’s especially been so for Martin Maldonado.
Despite his struggles, Maldonado has had a good go of things as of late, slugging .789 and hitting three homers in his past 19 at-bats. He homered twice in the previous series for the White Sox versus Minnesota, so he has something to build off entering this series versus Pittsburgh.
Pirates:Andrew McCutchen Andrew McCutchen has been a solid leadoff option for a large portion of the season for the Pirates, but he has struggled a ton as of late.
McCutchen is batting .137 over his 51 at-bats, including 16 strikeouts. He is still getting on base often via the free pass, but his bat has cooled off considerably since a strong May and somewhat strong June.
Don’t expect Cutch to get removed from the lineup in any drastic fashion, but his production has to return for the Pirates to keep feeling comfortable rolling him out at the top of the order.
Paul DeJong has been the White Sox most consistent bat, due to Luis Robert Jr. being sidelined with injury for a large part of the year, but recently, DeJong has struggled a ton.
DeJong has a .200/.250/.327 slash with two home runs in his past 15 games, striking out 19 times in that span.
His .228 season batting average could also tell you how cold the White Sox lineup has been for most of the season, but they need DeJong to be above average to make a massive difference, and he just hasn’t done that over the past two weeks.
Key Injuries
The Pirates, of course, are dealing with pitching injuries, as both Bailey Falter and Jared Jones are out through the All-Star break, with Jones expected to be sidelined until August. Ryan Borucki and David Bednar are on rehab assignments in AA-Altoona, with their returns expected soon. Marco Gonzales also seems to be nearing a return, seeing as he was on a similar trajectory as Quinn Priester, who returned to the Pirates this week.
The White Sox have a ton of injuries, especially on the 60-day injured list, as Yoan Moancada, Max Stassi, Dominic Leone, Jimmy Lambert, Matt Foster and Jesse Scholtens are all on the long-term injured list. Mike Clevinger is currently out with an elbow injury and is important to the White Sox rotation, so his loss is felt as well on the more short-term side.
Things to Look For
I want to specifically look at the Friday matchup before anything, as the Pirates will face the best Chicago has to offer in Garrett Crochet, who has been a marvel this year.
Crochet’s 146 strikeouts are the most in baseball and he ranks 5th in WHIP, so he’ll be a force the Pirates offense will have to figure out. It’s honestly the most intriguing matchup of the entire series, as Pittsburgh is much better against left-handed pitching versus right-handed pitching, posting a .295 BABIP versus southpaws compared to a .277 BABIP versus right-handers.
As for the rest of the series, its about handling business against an inferior opponent in Chicago and going into the All-Star break with momentum, especially off the heels of a massive series win versus Milwaukee. If the offense can score in all three games, which seems to be like asking for world peace, then their chances of a series win go up massively. If they don’t, which we’ve seen play out in the past two series, I could see the White Sox maybe sneaking up on Pittsburgh, and that would be a dagger to the heart just ahead of the break.
This is a must-win, I would even argue must-sweep, for the Pirates, and it begins Friday at 8pm ET in Chicago.
Justin Verno- Corey, welcome back to the MLB JULYTrade Deadline! Typing that, MLB July Trade Deadline, feels like all is right in the world my, dude!
Corey Shrader- Trade season is always a hotly anticipated adventure. In recent years we have seen this club with a pretty clear directive bent towards “sell.” 2024 is seeing the club positioned slightly differently to-date, doesn’t it?
JV- Sure does, Corey. Why is that? Currently, our Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting 2.5 games out of the last wild card spot and man alive, it seems like they’ve been about 3-5 games out forever and a day. The reason they are still hanging in there? The starting rotation has been terrific. Paul Skenes being as advertised and Jared Jones being better than most had hoped. Throw them in with Mitch Keller and the Bucs will have as good a one, two three as any playoff team can run out there. Mix in the ‘pitching out of his mind’ Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Marco Gonzales, and Martín Pérez and the Bucs not only have a deep rotation, they have some arms they can trade at the deadline. (Perhaps more in a few weeks?)
CS- This is not even to mention the other rising pitching pieces too. Not really what the point of our exercise here is, but it is quite the pitching pipeline flowing.
JV- But we digress. Let’s stop talking about the reasons WHY General Manager Ben Cherington should add to this year’s team and talk about WHAT he needs to add to this year’s team.
CS- The team does have some fairly clear needs. Most of which falls on the offensive side of the squad. With the level of pitching this club has been getting, it is tough not to dream on what an improved offense could do for the win column.
JV- Before we get too far down the path, here is the link to our original piece (by Joe Boyd and I). It has the formula we use for the trades so if you’re new to the site or don’t remember, check it out. I think that’s enough stalling, let’s get to it.
Despite the recent troubles, GMBC and his front office should not change gears. They need 2 bats (at least) and frankly the 2024-25 FA class just doesn’t offer any help. On top of that, there is only one OF in the pipeline that might offer some help but it’s an easy bet that Charles McAdoo is at least a year away.
Corey, why don’t you take the first swing here.
LOW KEYBUY
CS- One of my favorite places to look for trade targets has always been “blocked” or underrated prospects in the upper minors. Often times talent can be acquired from this situation and added to the acquiring team’s 40 man roster and then make an immediate impact.
So, for the first OF trade target I would like to pursue, the Twins are the team to reach out to.
Keirsey Jr. would be the type of piece that would be a plug & play for a team that is in need of a OF that can also play a capable centerfield. Currently having a tremendous campaign at AAA in his age 27 season, he is very much a candidate to be given a long look in the majors. At a certain point “older” prospects need to be provided with the chance to sink or swim at the highest level. The Twins have not been eager to promote him yet even with the AAA line of:
He sports above average exit velocities and a strong quality of contact to boot.
His availability would hinge on how the Twins organization views his fit and how they anticipate the need to deploy him in the near term. I believe he could be pried away if the Pirates can help them fill an immediate need. Additionally, the Bucs could likely pry a Complex (CPX) or Dominican Summer League (DSL) lotto ticket away in this move. For this exercise, I have included Cuban born switch hitter, Yandro Hernandez. Hernandez is a bit old for the DSL, but he has just made his debut and is only 17 games into his professional career with Minnesota. I’d also note that this player secondary piece could realistically be any lower minors option (CPX/DSL) as they are very much speculative assets that take years to develop in most cases.
Minnesota is a strong ball club, so finding an area of need is somewhat difficult. One area that is slightly deficient is left handed pitching. Here I propose sending Martin Perez, but, realistically, would be absolutely willing to send Aroldis Chapman or Marco Gonzales here. And, personally, I would do Gonzales for Keirsey Jr. in a straight 1 to 1 exchange.
JV- I know a lot of fans don’t want to see another trade for a prospect. I can hear it now, Corey. ‘Troy from Blawnox thinks we’re Nutting Fanboys. And he thinks we’re stupid to add another prospect and something, something, I want to win now.’ And sure, adding a prospect is not at all what fans want right now, but this is a viable and likely low cost add and has the added bonus of control. And right now control is needed more than a proven bat, provided that bat is a rental.
CS – I am sure that would be the criticism of a move like the one I am suggesting. But that is OK. A player like Keirsey Jr., while not yet a major league player, is deserving of a chance to find out if he can be one. Adding that type of player is not so different from adding a vet and will both be cheaper and have control remaining.
JV- I’m going to take a slightly different approach here. But I’m sure I will hear the same complaints.
Corey, I’m turning my attention to the LA Dodgers.
LA Dodgers get
Martín Pérez or Marco Gonzales- LHSP- MLB
A once mighty rotation has taken some hits and adding Perez or Gonzales would give them a LH starter that could slide into the pen as some of their arms find their way back. It also allows them to make a move like this while giving up very little.
I hate moving Peggy here, but bear with me. Max Muncy has missed time. Mookie Betts is still out. Peggy offers both 3B and 2B flexibility. But there’s more: I imagine LAD will back up the truck for Chicago White Sox OF Luis Robert Jr. Having Peggy to throw into that deal could help give the CWS a well rounded package. So I think this is a good piece to dangle.
There was a time LAD fans would have laughed me off these pages for this offer. But Outman really struggled this year earning a trip to AAA, where he gathered dust until a recent injury got him called back up. I get it, a friggin’ reclamation project? I can see GMBC taking this approach though. Outman checks boxes. Control? Till 2029. Power? Check. Young? Well, this is where Corey and I have something in common with these guys. Outman is 27. He’s also a year removed from slashing:
.248/.353/.437, an OPS of .790, wRC+ of 118 and smacking 23 HR.
(Side note: I ignored SV in this trade. FG hasn’t made any adjustments to Outman’s projections but needless to say they will come down. Sometimes the SV’s are great, sometimes you have to put them aside. Sometimes a deal makes sense for other reasons. Like adding a Peggy to flip for Robert Jr.)
CS- Yes, in the first move that I suggested above SV was difficult to tabulate because the key piece from MIN did not have an updated value projection for some time. There is nothing wrong with going with a gut assessment on occasion when trying to conjure up trade moves. Totally agree.
The Big Move
JV- I really would love to see the Bucs push for Luis Robert Jr, but is it realistic? My second choice would be for Rockies CF Brenton Doyle. But I definitely do not see GMBC paying that price. So how about something in between?
A lot of fans are about to come at me for this, and I completely get it. After a slow start TJ has lit up. So much so that I can see GMBC selling him as a FV 55 with a much higher $46M SV. But let’s stick to the current grade.
Once set to be a 1st draft pick, the left hander had TJS and fell to the Bucs in the 2nd round. He’s having a nice year and looks set to start moving through the system. Seems a perfect fit for the A’s.
Liover Peguero-SS/2B–Debuted. SV hard to gage
I’m not trying to give Peggy away. I promise. But he seems like the odd man out and I think he will be very attractive to teams due to his power and flexibility.
I think there could be one more piece here: A Sammy Siani (OF FV 35+) or a Mitch Jebb (2B FV 35+) type to round the deal out.
The Bucs would have JJ until 2029. JJ isn’t a Luis Robert Jr but he’d be a solid addition to the OF. On the year JJ is slashing
.234/.316/.422 OPS .737 wRC+ 118
He doesn’t strike out a ton (18.4%) and he takes his walks (10.4%) making him a net gain to the lineup. His 11 HR, 22 doubles and 3 triples are what I’m looking to add though.
Another note- This is the A’s; the team that seems to have their very own completely bonkers grading system that somehow seems to work more than we know. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them insist on Braxton Ashcraft as the second piece. At the same time I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them insist on Charles McAdoo (OF no FV grade at present) as the centerpiece. As Forrest Gump might say, “The A’s are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get”.
CS – Adding an upside bat with control remaining would be a massive get for this club. And as you demonstrate here, as a buyer, you’ve got to be willing to pay the cost.
I originally came into this concept with the intent to suggest two moves; one “small” and one “big.” But at the risk of being too clever by half, as they say, I am going to go with two “small” move options.
The motivation for this is simply that I think that this club needs to hunt value and upside while “keeping their powder dry” to the greatest extent possible. This 2024 season looks to be the beginning of what could be a true competitive window. Unless the opportunity presents itself to acquire a true game changer (and I am not sure there is one on the market right now), I would search out buying opportunities in places where playing time is scarce.
Kyle Nicolas is an extremely “Rays” player. I have little to no doubt that Tampa Bay would want to get their hands on him. I also have little to no doubt that they could mold him into an extremely effective late inning RP.
Kameron Misner is a very good athlete. The lefthanded Misner possesses above-average to plus power & above-average speed. He is capable of playing all three OF positions & his glove receives pretty positive scouting grades to boot. The downside is that he is a little bit of a whiffer. His profile, at a glance, is that of a more athletic & less free swinging version of Matt Gorski. What separates the two is that Misner generally can take a walk and has an overall better quality approach.
Of course Misner is risky due to the type of player profile. But it is not only a risk profile. He has the tools to put up impressive offensive numbers. His approach overall has improved in his second year in AAA and it is not at all impossible to see this type of player simply be a late bloomer.
Much like DaShawn Keirsey Jr, this is the kind of piece I am after. One that you can try to acquire dealing from depth. The type of move that could allow the club to make other moves to address other needs without dealing too many pieces in one deal.
Put a bow on it
CS- Well, JV, I think that might just about do it for us on OF targets. With the increasing rumors coming by the day, we just might see the OF need erased from the board.
Overall, I believe we covered a nice range of possible options for the type of targets the Pirates could aim for.
JV- The pitching is good enough to make this team a contender as long as a few guys can get it going and GMBC can bring some more offense to the yard.
A common thread in all of the packages Corey and I built is control. The Bucs just don’t have an OF bat ready to compete at the major league level. While I like Charles McAdoo, he’s at least a year away and there isn’t much beyond him. It’s time for GMBC to put on his big boy pants and get a deal done to help this team.
And as Corey and I showed here, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Chance for a crucial series win today as Paul Skenes once again will pitch the deciding game against opposing starter, Aaron Civale – a rematch from June 23 while Civale was still a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.
In that game, Civale pitched 5 frames of 3-hit, 1-run ball with his only blemish being a 4th inning home run by Bryan Reynolds as the Pirates lost 3-1.
Now on his third team in less than a year, Civale is set to make his second start with his new club after allowing 4 runs in 5 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his Brewers debut last week.
In that outing, Civale leaned more heavily on his sinker whereas his previous outings had his cutter as his primary pitch. He also significantly cut down usage of his curve (which he’s thrown 17% this season) and eliminated his 4-seam and splitter, both of which have generated poor results for Civale.
While I covered most of the main things to know about Civale last time, we’re going to focus on his main pitches to target – namely, his low-90s sinker, high-80s cutter and low-80s sweeper – and I’ll touch on the curve a bit.
He’s typically paired the cutter and curve against LHH while dropping in the sinker/sweeper when facing RHH. The curve drops straight down and out of the zone so if a lefty is seeing horizontal movement on a pitch, they should just lay off it especially as it has the lowest expected batting average (.205) and expected slugging percentage (.345) among his offerings.
In contrast, lefties should look to target that cutter. Civale mixes throwing up and in or up and away but it is typically elevated resulting in the highest woBA (.360) among those four offerings.
For righties, expect Civale work pitch inside frequently with both that sinker and sweeper. Look to get ahead on the sinker as the pitch has resulted in 6 of Civale’s 19 home runs this year with an oSLG of 476. His sweeper has a TON of spin (3,022 RPM) but if he hangs it, it also has been very easy to drive with 4 long balls hit off the pitch.
With Skenes on the bump for the Pirates, this is a winnable game. Civale is an opponent that this team can and should be able to beat. He’s going to throw strikes so look to attack pitches early in counts and get runs on the board to back your All Star ace!
The Pirates have not won (or lost, for that matter) 3 consecutive games in over three months when they notched successive victories from April 6-8. After scoring 20 combined runs over the past two games, do the bats still have some more in the tank to get another W on the board against the dastardly Brew Crew?
They’ll have their rematch with Tobias Myers, who made his major league debut earlier this season against the Pirates, where he pitched 5 innings allowing 1 run off 5 hits and 1 walks with 4 strikeouts. While the Pirates managed to snag a win behind 8 shutout frames courtesy of Bailey Falter, they’ll likely want to do a bit better against the rookie righty.
Myers was a 6th round pick by the Baltimore Orioles in 2016 who bounced around a number of clubs before finally breaking in with Milwaukee earlier this season. While he’s posted fairly pedestrian numbers in the minors (4.24 ERA through 620.1 innings pitched), he’s seen things click together since joining the Brewers organization.
After posting a strong 1.62 ERA with a 32.8% strikeout rate through 16.2 innings in AAA Nashville, Myers was recalled by the Brewers ahead of that April start in Pittsburgh and has posted a respectable 5-3 record, 3.52 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 64 MLB innings.
He’s been a workhorse for the Brewers battered rotation, managing 5+ innings over each of his last 6 starts and allowing 3 or less runs in 5 of them – including a stretch last month where allowed just 2 runs over a 25.1 inning span for a 0.71 ERA – so the Pirates will need a plan of attack for bringing him down.
Myers has a 5-pitch mix, relying on his low-90s rising four seam fastball and high-80s cutter to set up hitters before tossing in his mid-80s slider and low-80s changeup, which have produced HUGE whiff rates for the rookie Myers at 33.3% and 42.2%, respectively. He also occasionally adds in the high-70s curve but it hasn’t been an effective pitch for him with location, execution or results so far this year.
Myers isn’t going to overpower hitters, focusing on a 4-seam/cutter/changeup approach against LHH and leaning 4-seam/slider more when facing RHH as both the slider and changeup typically break down below the zone resulting in some bad looking swinging strikes.
I mentioned Myers has the rising fastball as it has 35% less horizontal drop than the average fastball in MLB, leading to hitters swinging under the offering expecting the ball to fade lower in the zone. There’s enough tape on Myers now that Bucs batters should be aware of how the pitch moves and how to approach it.
Myers has some STARK splits in his MLB career so far as he has struggled both at home (4.97 ERA vs 2.56 away) and when facing LHH (.753 OPS compared to .468 against RHH).
Bucs bats need to attack the 4-seam and cutter, which combined have made up over 63% of his total pitch mix. The xBA against the cutter (.329) is the highest among his main offerings and his xSLG vs his 4-seam (.538) also ranks above (or below, depending on your perspective) his other pitches.
All of his home runs allowed have come against these offerings and the Pirates have shown a recent return of the Lumber Company, as the team is now 6th in the National League for home runs on the season and 1st in all of baseball since the start of July with 19 so far this month.
Attack the heat, spit on the low slider/changeup mix and drive a few more balls into the American Family Field seats.
There have been more than a couple instances of team officials saying that they needed to see improvement from internal options. More than that, they said they expected it.
Fans always take this stuff weird, especially in Pittsburgh, and they’ve earned every bit of that skepticism too. To fans, when the team talks about needing or expecting internal improvement, it always gets tied directly to an unwillingness to spend either prospects or money to improve the team.
Again, the Pirates as a franchise have a reputation and it’s on every iteration of the management team to change that reputation by doing things differently. This reputation spans multiple owners, GMs, Presidents, and until someone does something different, it’s going to be very hard to expect different for most.
You don’t have to believe a word they say, that’s completely your well earned right as a Pirates Fan, I’m simply saying, in this case, they have been right many times over and it’s probably time to acknowledge it.
That doesn’t mean everything they touch is golden, it means exactly what it means, they told us they had enough starting pitching, I can’t think of one person who agreed in the media, me included. Tonight, Quinn Priester who’s probably 8th on the imaginary depth chart of Pirates Starting pitchers pitched 6 scoreless with 8 Ks in Milwaukee. They have 3 expected opening week starters on the IL. They have had more 6 inning performances from starters than any team in baseball.
They were right.
Like, way right.
They told us they were going to be patient with Rowdy Tellez. They “just had to get him going” Derek Shelton would say to raining down boos. Rowdy Tellez in his last 30 games, 95 at bats, he’s hit 7 homeruns, is hitting .347, with a .392 On base and a .621 Slug. He’s raised his season OPS to .698. He’s quite literally the hottest hitter in the National League, slightly outpacing his teammate Bryan Reynolds.
Reynolds now has 17 homeruns and finds himself 10 dingers shy of his career high mark of 27 before the All Star Break. They told us the best of Bryan Reynolds was yet to come too….
Oneil Cruz has been slowly and steadily taking steps this season, and things are starting to look up for him at the plate. Much more contact, better patience, putting much more convicted swings on pitches he can handle.
Internal improvement has become a dirty phrase to us and really, it should be the goal. It should be a separate conversation whether they add or whatever, but internal improvement should always be hoped for, hell, when you have a young team, you better AIM for it. If you don’t get it, YOU screwed up.
More slumps will come, so will injuries, and we’ll forget in a heartbeat that there were any gains at all, but they’re still happening. They’ll keep happening too.
I appreciate the team having patience with guys, they certainly have more than I do, I’d have cut Rowdy a couple weeks before he ever started showing signs of coming out of it. I Never would have started the season with Bailey Falter in the rotation and I’d have absolutely signed another veteran starter. I thought Liover Peguero was ahead of Nick Gonzales. I didn’t believe until like halfway through Spring that the team was seriously considering starting Jared Jones out of Spring.
And I’m happy as hell about how every single one of those things turned out. To me it’s a very easy equation.
Team Doing Good > Me Being Right.
The Team was right on quite a few fronts, that doesn’t mean they don’t have work to do. It just means, they weren’t totally misguided or delusional when they kept telling us at least a decent portion of the answer is already here.
They’re starting to look like a team, and they’re missing some pretty big pieces on the IL yet. This could be fun.
Heading to Milwaukee for a potentially pivotal series this week, the Pirates will once again face off against Brewers starting pitcher Colin Rea, who enters play tonight with an 8-2 record, 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his 94.1 innings this season.
Although he’s experiencing a breakout this year, Rea is a well-traveled pitcher who has been a Quad-A type arm playing parts of four seasons in MLB over his career before this ascendence in Milwaukee last year.
His pitching repertoire consists of a fastball-heavy approach as he leans on his low-90s sinker, high-80s cutter and low-90s 4-seamer making up 70% of his total pitches thrown on average.
His secondary stuff mixes in a low-80s sweeper, high-80s splitter and a high-70s curve to change speed and eye level of hitters as each of these break down in the zone.
His sweeper has provided the best results for Rea, producing the highest amount of strikeouts (19 of 66) and the lowest oBA among his offerings at .068.
That sweeper has been his 2nd most used option against right handed hitters (after his sinker) as he charges the ball down and in against opponents while the pitch is breaking away from lefties.
Looking at his other pitches, it’s definitely the hard stuff that Pirates hitters should target. Each of his sinker, cutter and four seamer have xBA of 300+ and xSLG of .470+ as they’ve universally been hit hard and often.
While his face-value numbers disclosed earlier look nice, Rea’s sub-par K rate (16.8%) and walk rate (7.1%) have his expected values looking much less rosy than the surface metrics indicate.
Pirates batters will want to get on Rea early. His ERA first time through the order (4.80) is much higher than subsequent turns through and he’s surrendered 7 of his 13 long balls first time facing opposing hitters.
This has been an area where the Bucs have struggled as they have been held scoreless first turn through in each of their last ten games. Bats perked up again in yesterday’s game.
Rea has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 5.56 and 16 strikeouts in 5 appearances versus the Pirates in his career so they have fared well against him historically.
If they can keep some momentum from yesterday heading into the divisional matchup today, they can get Rea out early and start digging in against the Brew Crew bullpen.
Trade deadline season is always one of the most intriguing parts of the MLB calendar, with stars becoming available and moving to new homes, under-the-radar acquisitions shifting the tide for teams on the fringe and teams in a rebuild adding valuable pieces that end up being important components to a new core shaping the landscape for a two-to-three week period before July 31.
This trade deadline is expected to be one of the more interesting trade deadlines in recent memory, as, at the time of writing, only five teams in the entire league are double-digit games out of a wild card spot and no division leader has a double-digit games lead, so the buyers market is expected to be at a surplus while the sellers market appears to be very limited.
The Pirates are one of the many teams in the National League that are within six-games of the final wild card spot, currently occupied by the San Diego Padres, so with just a week left until the All-Star break, its hard to imagine much changing in terms of the Pirates positioning at 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot before next Monday.
The last half decade has seen the Pirates sell at the deadline, trading pieces such as Tyler Anderson,Jose Quintana, Austin Hedges, Rich Hill and even Ji-Man Choi to contending teams, but with the Pirates seemingly in the race and what many media pundits would say, “A bat or two away.”, who are some players the Pirates could target if they decide to be buyers over the next couple of weeks? Let’s take a look.
INF Ryan McMahon – Colorado Rockies
Ryan McMahon is having a solid season for the Colorado Rockies, receiving the nod as the lone representative of the Rockies in the 2024 All-Star Game.
The Rockies, unlike McMahon, are not having much success, sitting at 32-58 at the time of writing and tied for the last place in the NL with the Miami Marlins(more on them later).
McMahon’s 2024 campaign has been impressive, posting an .801 OPS with 14 HR and 45 RBIs in 335 at-bats, with the OPS number being a career high for the left-handed power hitter.
McMahon would check off multiple boxes for the Pirates. For starters, he would immediately come in with the most homers from a true left-handed batter(excluding Bryan Reynolds because he is a switch hitter), while also adding defensive versatility, having played first, second and third base over the course of eight seasons with the Rockies.
The left-handed slugger also has plenty of control, likely spiking his value a bit, as he recently signed a 6-year, $70-million contract with the Rockies that keeps him under team control until 2028, costing $12-million in 2024 and 2025 and $16-million in 2026 and 2027, an affordable contract, even for the Pirates.
An OPS+ of 117 just adds to the value that McMahon would bring to the Pirates, and although the price may be steep and McMahon would likely garner interest from many teams in the race, the Pirates have the prospects to make any deal happen, and McMahon would be one of, if not their best target over the next couple of weeks.
MOCK TRADE
Pirates acquire: INF Ryan McMahon
Rockies acquire:RHP Thomas Harrington (#4 prospect), SS/3B Jack Brannigan (#8 prospect), RHP Patrick Reilly (#19 prospect), OF Tres Gonzalez (#25 prospect)
OF Brent Rooker – Oakland A’s
The Pittsburgh Pirates have had an outfield problem, to put it nicely.
Bryan Reynolds had been amazing in left field and was acknowledged for it, receiving his second All-Star nod, but outside of that, it’s been messy for the Pirates.
Jack Suwinski has played better recently, but still hasn’t amounted to the potential outburst some expected from him after a sluggish 2023. Michael A. Taylor is a defensive specialist and offers next to nothing offensively, while Edward Olivares and Joshua Palacios are below-average defenders and don’t offer enough offensive upside for it to not matter.
Enter Brent Rooker of the Oakland, and soon to be Sacramento and then, eventually, Las Vegas Athletics, who, much like McMahon, is outplaying his team as the A’s sit at 34-58 and second to last in the American League.
Rooker is exceeding his career averages in 2024, slashing .278/.353/.537/.890 with 18 HR in 281 at-bats, and that’s just on the surface. Rooker ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in all of baseball in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard hit rate and LA sweet spot rate, while also ranking highly in average exit velocity(89th percentile) and bat speed(80th percentile).
The whiff rate (34.9%) and strikeout rate (32.8%) are worrisome, but when Rooker makes contact, he hits for above-average power and although a right-handed bat, his expected HR total in PNC Park so far is 19(27 in 2023), which would rank as the highest home run total on the Pirates right now.
Rooker is under team control until 2028, so the 29-year old outfielder would be able to stick around in a new home for quite a bit in the middle of his prime years. Like the strikeouts, his -2 OAA is worrisome, but if the bat stays consistent, it wouldn’t matter much and would also give the Pirates a great Robin to Bryan Reynolds as Batman on the North Shore.
MOCK TRADE
Pirates acquire:OF Brent Rooker
A’s acquire:RHP Thomas Harrington (#4 prospect), OF Lonnie White Jr.(#10 prospect), RHP Zander Mueth(#11 prospect)
OF Randy Arozarena – Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays are in an interesting spot, just 5.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the AL, but in a loaded AL East that features the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who are all in playoff position in at the moment, the Rays may have no choice but to sell, with arguably their biggest piece being outfielder Randy Arozarena.
Arozarena is having a very down year for the Rays, posting a .669 OPS with 11 HR in 304 at-bats, but he has played much better as of late, batting .286 while slugging .459 over the past 30 days, making him an intriguing “get right” acquisition at the deadline.
Leaning on a 90.3 average exit velocity is what will likely get Arozarena back on track, and his 11.3 walk rate is among the best in baseball, so the signs are there for Arozarena to have a strong second half.
Arozarena is controllable until 2027, making $8.1M in 2024 to avoid arbitration, with ARB-2 and ARB-3 awaiting in 2025 and 2026, making him an affordable option for any interested team.
The price may not be too high on a guy like Arozarena either, seeing as he’s entering his age 30 season in 2025 and you’re banking on him bouncing back up to his usual form. The Pirates could slot Arozarena in at right field and let him regain his form, offering power upside as well, and don’t let a previous deal with the Rays scare you out of the potential of this one.
MOCK TRADE
Pirates acquire:OF Randy Arozarena
Rays acquire:SS/3B Jack Brannigan (#8 prospect), RHP Mike Burrows (#9 prospect), OF Emmanuel Terrero (#20 prospect)
OF Jesse Winker – Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have been a rather surprising team in the NL this year, sitting at 42-48 and 5.0 games out of the wild card right now.
Amidst a rebuild from the Juan Soto trade, they’ve gotten contributions from many young stars such as CJ Abrams, and with the Nationals recently calling up a top prospect in outfielder in James Wood, that could open the door to finding a market for outfielder Jesse Winker.
Winker is having a solid season with Washington, posting an .820 OPS with 10 HR in 277 at-bats in the nation’s capital, including batting .326 in his past 30 games.
Much like Arozarena, Winker is among the league’s best in walk rate (13.8%) and chase rate(18.3%), and his plus-18 batting run value is among the league’s best as well.
His -8 OAA is very worrisome, but he ranks in the 97th percentile in arm value and the 81st percentile in arm strength, so in a smaller right field in PNC Park, you could see those numbers improve on the defensive side of things for Winker if he ended up in Pittsburgh.
The biggest wonders here are one, would Winker, who is a free agent after this season, become available and two, where will the Nationals thought process as a buyer or seller be coming deadline time?
If he is available, he doesn’t have a controllable contract like the three previous candidates, but there would be a chance to resign him on an affordable deal in the offseason, something I believe is worth the risk for a Pirates team that would get a strong left-handed bat and outfielder in Winker.
May 25, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies designated hitter Elias Diaz (35) in the dugout in the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Remember Pirates catcher Elias Diaz? I sure do, and he’s having quite the season for the Rockies, and has had success dating back to being an All-Star hero in the mid-summer classic last year and is likely the most impactful catcher that will available this trade deadline.
The Pirates catching group has been a mess this year, beginning with the absence of Endy Rodriguez, who albeit had a ton to prove, would have been a nice, youthful option to have available. Henry Davis hasn’t seen his potential present just yet, including having tons of injuries issues this year, and Joey Bart, Yasmani Grandal and Jason Delay haven’t moved the needle enough to make the group even close to below-average.
Enter Diaz, who has posted a .782 OPS in 227 at-bats this year with Colorado, the second highest OPS mark of his career. On top of bringing some value with the bat, he brings value defensively as well, ranking highly in framing(89th percentile), caught stealing above average(90th percentile) and pop time(86th percentile) despite a -1 blocks above average.
At worst, Diaz would bring consistency to the catcher position, something the Pirates desperately need, and with him becoming a free agent in 2025, he’s a rental catching option for any team looking for a spark behind the plate for the second half of the season.
There’s no doubt that the Toronto Blue Jays are going to be one of the more intriguing teams during the 2024 trade deadline, with the likelihood of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being traded growing as the Jays continue to slide out of contention(8.5 games back of wild card, last in AL East).
Eyes can go to those players, but for the Pirates, taking a shot at veteran right-hander Trevor Richards wouldn’t be the worst idea to solidify a bullpen that has had its issues, especially in middle-relief.
Richards has been good for the Jays, posting a 3.06 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 47.0 IP, including a WHIP below one at 0.87. His career 4.37 ERA also offers continuity that upon his arrival, he’ll be able to continue to be a steady presence in the middle of a bullpen.
His stats on the surface are already impressive, and adding in his 2.86 xERA and .192 xBA make him an even better bullpen option. Richards is a UFA following the 2024 season, and with Ryan Borucki and David Bednar returning from injury soon, it seems as such at least, Richards could be the perfect, under-the-radar addition to allow the bullpen to thrive in the second half when healthy and always not come at a premium price.
MOCK TRADE
Pirates acquire:RHP Trevor Richards
Blue Jays acquire:OF Estaur Suero (#24 prospect)
Other realistic options
1B Josh Bell – Marlins – A reunion between the Pirates are Josh Bell could be possible, seeing as Josh Bell has been traded the past two deadlines, but with Connor Joe and Rowdy Tellez performing well as a duo at first base as of late, this move wouldn’t be as much a necessity as it was a month of so ago.
OF Joc Pederson – Diamondbacks – Joc Pederson is someone I have wanted in a Pirates uniform for a very long time, seeing as his swift, clean left-handed swing would work wonders in PNC Park. He has an .889 OPS right now and the D-Backs are just on the outside looking into the wild card picture, and after last season’s playoff heroics, I am not sure what their stance at the deadline will be, potentially making Pederson unavailable.
OF Tommy Pham – White Sox – The White Sox will sell, it’s just a matter of how much they’ll sell, but Tommy Pham will more than likely be on the move and likely come at a cheap price. As a left-handed option, Pham intrigues me, especially considering his .705 OPS, I just don’t know if Pittsburgh would be an ideal landing spot for him.
OF Miguel Andujar – A’s – Like Josh Bell, Miguel Andujar would have a reunion of sorts upon his arrival if he was traded to Pittsburgh, playing with the Pirates as recently as last year. His .733 OPS in 152 at-bats has helped Andujar pop up as a trade piece from Oakland, joining Brent Rooker and JJ Bleday as trade options, but consistency is the big question mark for Andujar, so it’s a matter of more risk than reward.
LHP Andrew Chafin – Tigers – Andrew Chafin is a veteran reliever who has made an amazing career for himself, and with Ryan Borucki still sidelined with injury, the Pirates could use another left-handed reliever. Chafin has a 3.86 ERA in 28.0 IP and with a club option going into 2025, he could find a way into a team’s bullpen as a middle inning mainstay at a cheap price, something the Pirates may quietly have their eyes on.
Longshot options
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Blue Jays – I have heard this proposed by fans for the last two months, and trust me, I get it, Guerrero Jr. is a phenomenal player, and the statistics, including a 135 OPS+, speak for themselves, I just don’t see it as a realistic option for the Pirates to acquire him when the price would be steep and he’d likely walk for a bigger pay day come 2026, when he hits unrestricted free agency.
OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Marlins – The Marlins are bad, and they’ll sell, and there’s not doubt they’ll receive plenty of interest on Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has a .733 OPS with 10 HR in 329 at-bats this season and has staked himself as a young star in baseball since his arrival in Miami. Between the amount of suitors, his controllability through 2027 and many other factors, I just don’t see the Pirates overpaying to bring Chisholm Jr. to Pittsburgh without a guarantee of a playoff run.
OF Luis Robert Jr. – White Sox – Luis Robert Jr. is one of my favorite players in baseball and he’s also stuck on a very bad White Sox team right now. Like Chisholm Jr., he’ll have plenty of suitors vying to pry him away from Chicago, but the White Sox may elect to hold onto Robert Jr., considering his 6-year, $50-million extension doesn’t allow him to hit free agency until 2028. If the price is right, sure, Robert Jr. could be on the move, but between the asking price and the injury history, I just don’t know if Robert Jr. is someone who ends up in Pittsburgh within the month.
Players the Pirates could trade, even if they are buyers
SP Martin Perez – Martin Perez signed with Pittsburgh this past offseason, and although he dealt with an injury over the past month and change, he’s been serviceable, posting a 4.72 ERA in 68.2 IP. Remove the blowup start versus Milwaukee before his injury and that number drastically drops, and with Quinn Priester returning from injury soon and Braxton Ashcraft improving by the day, the Pirates could look to trade Perez and get something for him, much like they have in the past with Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill, if health and availability permits.
SP Marco Gonzales – Much like Perez, Marco Gonzales was an offseason acquisition by the Pirates to solidify the rotation, not knowing what we know about Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. Gonzales has been on the shelf with a forearm injury, but if he’s healthy, he could garner some trade interest from teams as a back-end rotation piece.
LHP Aroldis Chapman – Aroldis Chapman has been a mainstay in the baseball scene for some time now and will likely finish as a Hall of Fame reliever when all is said and done. Signing on a one-year, $10.5-million deal in the offseason with Pittsburgh, the immediate reaction among many was that he would be a flip candidate, and that could be the case if a team offers the Pirates something they can’t refuse in exchange for the Cuban Missle to supplement their bullpen late in ballgames.
OF Michael A. Taylor – Michael A. Taylor had a strong start to the season, but as expected, he hasn’t had much offensive success. His glove is always going to be his calling card, and teams value defensive outfielders more than we think, so the Pirates may get interest from a team that could use Taylor as a defensive specialist and fourth or fifth outfielder on a contending roster.
So, what will the Pirates do?
This is one of the more intriguing trade deadlines we will see from the Pittsburgh Pirates in some time.
The last time we saw the Pirates buy during a trade deadline was the 2018 trade deadline when they acquired Chris Archer from the Rays, a trade that is looked back on constantly among Pirates fans as a bad one.
Ironically enough, 2018 was the last time the Pirates have a winning record, going 82-79 that season, and at the All-Star break that season, the Pirates were 56-52. At the time of writing, the Pirates are 42-47 on July 8. In 2018, on July 8, the Pirates were 41-48 before going on a solid winning streak, so that team was in a very similar spot compared to what we’re seeing right now in 2024.
Expect the Pirates to buy in some form, especially with the needs of the team extremely clear and concise:
left-handed power
Outfielder
Catcher
middle relief
To the extent they’ll buy remains uncertain, hence why I included realistic names to watch and some long shots earlier. With a pitching staff that ranks among the best in baseball, the Pirates have the tools to find pieces and go for this thing, its just a matter of how general manager Ben Cherington wants to attack the next couple of weeks, how the team plays the next couple of weeks and how the dominos across the league fall.
Strap in and enjoy whatever comes the Pirates way, because this deadline will feel and be much different than what we’ve seen over the past half decade, and hopefully this piece gave you a good idea on where the Pirates, and the league, stand as the trade deadline approaches.
The Brewers have been handily in control of the NL Central for the better part of the last few months but they split a series in Colorado and lost 2 of 3 to the Dodgers this past weekend.
The Pirates, on the other hand, bring a hobbled rotation and an uneven offense into a critical three game series in the House of Pain where the Bucs have lost 17 times over 25 games since 2021. If they are going to change their fate this time around, they’ll need to find a way to get the bookend offense from the Mets series to show up consistently in Milwaukee.
Pirates: Rowdy Tellez: When you’re wrong, you’re wrong and I am happy to admit that I was wrong about Rowdy. The contact and exit velocity rates were solid all season but Tellez has finally put it together. Since June 1, Rowdy has batted .349 with a 1.020 OPS and 184 wRC+ – all of which are among the best in MLB in that stretch. Whether this is the real deal or his luck eventually runs out, I am going all-in to enjoy the Rowdy Ride.
Brewers: Christian Yelich: Recently named to his third All Star Game – and first since 2019 – the former MVP has experienced a resurgence this year in leading the Brewers offense, posting a .329/.407/.533 slash line very reminiscent of his late-2010 stats. He’s been especially hot this month as he has a .393/.469/.893 line in July with 3 doubles, a triple and 3 home runs.
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen: Typically, Anthrocon propels Cutch to one of his biggest offensive surges but the 37-year old veteran went 1-for-11 over the weekend before posting an 0/3 game in the finale against the Mets. He enters today’s series against his former club batting .136 in July and is currently struggling to get much going at the plate.
Brewers: Rhys Hoskins: Last time we faced the Brewers, faced were lamenting how we didn’t sign Hoskins this past off-season. While the upside is undeniable, the fact that he’s played 27 of his 69 games this season at DH limits his contributions to the club and his offensive contributions have not been great as of late. Over his past 7 games, Hoskins has just two hits (both for home runs) in 28 plate appearances for a .091 batting average in that stretch while striking out 32.1% of the time.
Key Injuries
Pirates: Jared Jones (right lat strain) and Bailey Falter (left tricep tendonitis) both went down with injuries over the past week which may complicate pitching matchups during this series.
Brewers: Joey Ortiz, part of the trade return from Baltimore for Corbin Burnes, was off to a scorching start with his new club, posting a 130 OPS+ and .817 OPS on the season thus far. He will miss this series as he landed on the injured list last week with reported neck inflammation.
Things to Look For
The Pirates are currently 4 games back of the final wild card spot and 9.5 back in the division. While they didn’t lose a ton of ground over the previous few series, it would be advantageous if they can break out of their mediocrity and roll off a few wins in a row this week.
The Pirates are the second team in MLB history to not have a single winning or losing streak of 3+ games over a span of 50 or more regular-season games. The Braves had a span of 55 straight games between the 2021 and 2022 seasons (3 in 2021, 52 in 2022). https://t.co/IEiYioa8su
Steel City Pirates 