Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – All Star Edition!

7-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Every week it feels like you see something in baseball you’ve never seen before. Literally in some cases.

Those moments can be fun like the other night where the bats had a rare night at center stage hitting 7 homeruns and 2 grand slams.

Other times, they’re an inexplicable play that just make your jaw drop on the bar top.

Sadly, for many fans, the overall picture looks like something we’ve seen plenty of times. Instead of charging into the All Star Break, the Pirates ship is taking on water, even as they never really had a chance to patch the existing holes. They’re listing a bit, and if they don’t wake up soon, the All Star Game won’t feel like the stretch unless of course you mean their chances to overcome the grave they’re digging.

Let’s go! Live from San Francisco.

1. All Stars! Not Mercy Selections

Let’s not bury the lede. Bryan Reynolds and Paul Skenes have been selected to represent the Pirates in the All Star Game in Arlington Texas.

Both of these guys are deserving of course, but Paul Skenes has done this in only 10 MLB starts. Some are going to probably feel this was a bit early, but MLB knows what they have here peeps, they’ve got a legitimate young star and they want to bring, well, him, to the biggest stage they can force the Pittsburgh Pirates into anyway. I mean, they get Livvy on the red carpet, all her social media eyes focused on something they usually don’t look at and then the freak comes out and throws 3-4 100 MPH fastballs to strikeout 3 obligatory American League Stars and boom, ready made social media orgy. I honestly wouldn’t rule out that he starts the game either. The League could set up essentially the 3 guys they have to see him face, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and William Contreras anyone, that’s probably the NL murderers row right now, who might the AL put forward? Judge?

I’m sure some will have an issue with his selection to the game, but when you watch him pitch, its hard to pretend there are a roster full of better choices out there.

Reynolds had a tremendous first half when you really sit back and look at the body of work, but he was white hot in June and it’s carried over into July. Don’t short change Blair’s red carpet game, but Bryan’s selection feels like an acknowledgement that he’s always on the short list for this game until he isn’t. Have to imagine Texas is a bit more his style than Colorado was, but maybe I picture him identifying with Walker Texas Ranger more than Tad the Ski Instructor who’s cousin owns a weed dispensary.

Congrats to both these guys, again, well deserved.

Before I end this segment though, I’d like to mention, I could absolutely see Mitch Keller and Colin Holderman getting invites to account for injuries or even just pitchers who don’t want to throw because it doesn’t fit into their schedule for being prepared. In fact, I could and probably would argue, these two guys should have been the locks.

No sour grapes here, a team that isn’t even .500 probably shouldn’t be getting 4 nods to the Mid Summer Classic anyway.

2. Will the Pirates Have to Consider Adding Starting Pitching?

When two members of your starting rotation head to the IL, you consider yourself fortunate if you have 2 real options ready to step in. We watch even good teams struggle to keep 5 viable MLB arms through 162, and as it comes to pitching, the Pirates are undeniably in a good position, even now.

Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, and Martin Perez will each retain their spot, and before you raise the alarm bells about Skenes and his innings, keep your pants on, I’ll bring it up in the next point today. Luis Ortiz in my mind has cemented himself a member of the rotation until such a time as he stops kinda just being one. He’s been humming and even after they stopped using an opener.

It’d be foolish to take him out of it now with Jared Jones and Bailey Falter on the shelf.

So they need a fifth and remember, a bullpen game just became less attractive because we done promoted the dude that made them work.

Quinn Priester and Marco Gonzales are both close to being cleared to return from Rehab. Marco is the obvious choice there and while another injury could be right around the corner, they really just need him to be a bridge to getting more guys healthy.

Quinn is still a project, a worthy project in my mind, but he’s not a guy I’d expect to jump right in and own a spot as much as I’d expect to see him teeter there but earn valuable experience. Both might wind up happening this year, neither is a tragedy if they have to turn to them. That’s what depth looks like just about everywhere but, well, teams like the Pirates of the last 4 seasons, or teams like the Dodgers that quite literally might have 2 full rotations of MLB arms somehow stocked away or timed to return from the IL at some point.

Braxton Ashcraft has innings challenges as well, but the Pirates absolutely could take full advantage of his 40-man status and give him a look. Might as well do it now, or consider him out of the pen. More on that too….

Truth be told, their fortunate, they look poised to be able to absorb these injuries, at least more than they would have been in any previous GMBC era team.

3. Restrict This…

It’s my own fault I’m so tired of hearing about this, I started talking about the Pirates having to be careful with innings on a bunch of guys back in February, when it was boring to be thinking about. Now that it’s becoming more real for people, it’s the hotness and I’m sick to death of it, to the point I’ve kinda forgotten, I haven’t really addressed it recently and I absolutely should.

OK.

First off, I 100% believe both Jared Jones and Bailey Falter are legitimately injured.

Also, yes, these injuries do serve two masters. They’ll get two guys who were going to run smack dab into career highs for innings by early August if not sooner off the field for a bit.

It’s never good to have injuries, but so long as they aren’t major, this could very well ensure both these guys are available late in the year, and even the playoffs without doing quite as much dancing and skipping starts as I’m sure they had mapped out.

Falter has been visibly fatigued in recent outings and Jared has continued to have a fine rookie season but he felt a twinge, and that’s zero risk territory for everyone involved.

If this goes say a month, there’s a good chance the team and trainers expand the overall number they’re comfortable with after a little reset too.

Paul Skenes is different. Always was. His number was going to be more than Jones already and they did a great job (even if it annoyed some) of limiting him so drastically early on so that he barely wasted a pitch in the minors. I don’t believe Paul will be all that hindered, but I could see them skipping a turn here and there, maybe 6 is ok and 7 starts being a bit less frequent. Or, maybe they just kinda let him go to a degree. They have trainers monitor everything he does (well most things, they aren’t spying on he and Livvy) so maybe they simply think he can add more. We’ll see, I think they’d have to be playing some pretty serious games in September for this to be an issue, let’s get there first. If it means anything, before the season I had sourced some pretty strong number caps for Skenes and Jones in particular, and I can no longer get even loose estimates, only that they’ve gone up appropriately.

The other thing I keep hearing when I ask, they plan on getting again specifically Jones and Skenes to run through the tape this year, the last thing they want to do is shut either of them down.

It’s a reality we need to understand, but it’s also not as vanilla as many dolts are making it. It’s certainly not, “They gonna shut ’em both dahn ‘nat by August”.

Listen, if that happens, all I can tell you is it wasn’t what they planned on. They’ve preached all season, and even before that they wanted them both to finish the season. They aren’t looking to do the stretch me out game again in 2025.

4. Additions with Term Might Be the Sweet Spot

A bubble team, and let’s face facts, 4.5 games back of the 3rd and final Wild Card Spot as I write this, in danger of losing their second straight series against teams ahead of them in the standings and falling even more, bubble team would take some doing. Anyway, a bubble team can either do nothing, sell rentals or, if they’re smart, they can go be players for guys who will help both now and next year.

Feels to me like many of the deals you’ll be hoping to swing in the offseason, probably will be on the table at the deadline. These could even be deals with other Bubble teams that decide to sell off a bit. Let me lay out a couple guys I’m looking at, to see if I can make it make sense.

Joey Meneses – RF/DH/1B – RH – Pre-Arbitration – Currently Joey is in AAA for Washington, he’s not had a great season, but has had some success in the league. This is a contact guy with a little pop. Honestly, think Connor Joe, it’s even a good match if you look at their ages. In fact, Connor Joe might be the best reason not to go after a guy like this, but I think he has an MLB bat, just not an MLB power bat. To me, there’s value in that, but not the way he’s been. You can take strikeouts, but not when the homers don’t come to force you to.

Again, the point here is to talk about the types of guys you might find out there in this mold. Multiple years of control, and they help for more than a possibly bad bet at one shot. An acquisition like this gives you two chances to win, picture Gus the Pennsylvania Lottery’s Forest Gump like scratch off huckster.

OK, how about someone a team might be growing out of while his control is becoming late term and more costly?

Lane Thomas – OF – RH – 1 Year Arbitration Remaining (EST 6-7 million) – Lane really locked on as a regular with the Nationals after being dealt from St. Louis where he got very little opportunity. In 2022 he hit 17 homeruns and in 2023 he knocked 28 out, both years he struck out a lot more than he walked. This year, he has that ratio more in check, but it’s come at a cost to his power numbers. Lane is a legitimate starting outfielder in this league, a clear need for this club in 2025 as well as 2024, the Nationals have the recently promoted James Wood, Dylan Crews will get there before too long and they won’t consider their window open until he does. To me that makes Thomas potentially expendable for the Nats, and I think a sneaky good pickup opportunity for the Pirates. If you like him, great, extend him.

Now, you get a guy like Thomas, even if you don’t make it this year, you get all the getting to know you out of the way and have him all Spring like a quality offseason FA acquisition. This is how I’d be thinking as I approached the deadline. Stop playing the what if/where are we game and take the power, go get some of these guys that can help you no matter where you fall on the fence. Hell, if you were wrong and some of your kids pop off, turn around and flip them yourself for just about what ya paid.

One more then I quit ok, if you don’t kinda get what I’m looking for here, I suck at explaining things.

LaMonte Wade Jr. – 1B/OF – LH – 1 Year Arbitration Remaining (EST 4.5-6 million) – Maybe having a career year as it comes to average, and he has a very every other year track record with hitting some homeruns, but I love having an in house answer for first base next season from the left side. Quite frankly, the free agent market for first base is going to suck again and as good as he’s been lately I’m not sure I think Rowdy sticking around is in the cards. He can field both positions well, is a for sure upgrade over a Joshua Palacios or Edward Olivares or Michael Taylor. As it comes to his arm, he makes a better 1B, but he’s a consistent, veteran left handed bat, and man, that just sounds like something we’ve been missing on a lot of nights. You want one of those hitters who isn’t all or nothing, that’s Wade. I love the fit, even if it isn’t the best upgrade for the rest of this season. To me this is an opportunity to grab a deal before you’re down to one roll doing the duck walk around Costco.

Get it? Hope so. I’d support moves like this if they were 15 games in or out for what it’s worth. I would have frankly supported them from 2020-2023, bringing in better players even if they don’t fit the long term vision provide you more tradeable MLB assets to stockpile the system further, alas, that’s now how they went. They also might not have Skenes or Davis, so, do with that as you will.

5. Joshua Palacios will Always Have an Uphill Fight

No matter what you think of him as a player, you have to admit, there’s something about Joshua Palacios man. He just makes things happen, brings an energy few players can and since his recall to MLB, he simply can’t be kept off the basepaths.

Joshua was a Pirates Minor League Rule 5 selection last year. Barely a footnote in anyone’s offseason discussions, hell, most people probably didn’t even know there was a minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.

I’m not telling you this is some great baseball player people, I swear I’m not. His numbers aren’t all that impressive. He hit 10 homeruns in 264 at bats, and that’s certainly not nothing, but somehow it produced a sub .700 OPS.

That said, I’ll be damned if I don’t feel pretty good with him at the plate in a big situation. It defies all logic for me.

I’ve had about a billion people prove to me that there is no such thing as “clutch” at least not as something you can measure, but whatever it is that says “Joshua, you’re 0-3, but it’s time to hit a 3 run shot against a lefty who’s give up like 1 in his last 4 seasons of work”.

Look, I’m not a snob, I mean, I am about beer, but about players, hell no, the Angels just came one player short of starting 9 first round picks the other night and they stink, so if this MiLB Rule 5 selection wants to carve out an R.J. Reynolds, or G.I. Jones type space in my brain for this era of Buccos, ok, I could use some Brooklyn in my head space.

Enjoy the game half as much as Joshua does and you’re doing pretty well, as a fan, player or coach, he’s everything you’d want a player to display about his love of the game of baseball.

At some point we should stop making him pay a penalty for slipping through the cracks and just be grateful he did, he’s already earned his place in our lore with some unforgettable moments.

With Jared Jones and Bailey Falter, sidelined indefinitely, how will the Pirates navigate their absence?

7-8-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff has been one of the better units in all of baseball in 2024, despite being a unit many could have argued would have been a struggling one in the offseason upon losing Johan Oviedo and finding no true replacements.

The additions of Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales have helped a ton, despite injuries getting in the way, but this pitching staff has been made off of what was already here, as rookie phenoms Paul Skenes and Jared Jones dominated upon their arrivals and created a lethal pitching staff that keeps the Pirates in just about any game.

As mentioned, pitching has been hit with injuries all season for the Pirates, from Perez, to Quinn Priester, who is still on a rehab assignment, to Gonzales who entered 2024 with serious injury concerns dating back to last season.

Now, Jones and Bailey Falter have been added to that list, mind you both were added to the 15-day IL within days of each other, and suddenly, just before the All-Star break, the rotation has some serious questions to answer over the next couple weeks to maybe even a month to fill much needed innings.

The question as to how the Pirates will navigate the absences of Falter and Jones is already half answered, and we saw that in action Sunday afternoon with Luis Ortiz, who has continued to look more and more like the 2022 version of himself, regaining the velocity we once praised from him as well as adding a cutter to his pitch mix, which has worked wonders as a third fastball in his arsenal.

Ortiz has been one of the better stories of the 2024 season for Pittsburgh, seeing as he was being onboarded as a relief arm, but due to the previously mentioned injuries, he’s gotten another chance to start and done a phenomenal job, posting a 2.95 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 61 IP. More importantly, his walk rate is down immensely from 2023, dropping from 12-percent to 7.1-percent, while his strikeout rate has increased from 14.8-percent to 20.6-percent, so Ortiz seems to be finding his groove again.

Something of note on Ortiz though, he has never went more than 86.2 IP in his MLB career(went 124.1 IP in 2022 in AA and AAA), so keeping an eye on his innings count is something we could see as the season progresses, a trend we’ll also likely see with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, which is where the other part of this puzzle comes into play, both over the next month and throughout the rest of the season.

So, who are the options at play here? Let’s take a look at each and why they could help fill the void that is missing with Falter and Jones on the shelf.

Quinn Priester

Quinn Priester, much like Ortiz, should be a pretty obvious choice here.

The 23-year old right-hander was actually having a solid season for Pittsburgh before being placed on the injured list on June 6, posting a 4.83 ERA with 20 strikeouts and 10 walks in 31.2 IP, numbers that don’t fly off the page, but are fine for what can be offered from Priester at this point in his young career.

Priester began his rehab assignment on June 26, so it’s unclear just how close he is to returning to full-time action and throwing, but once he does, he becomes the clear cut option to get the Pirates back to a healthy five in the starting rotation.

Marco Gonzales

Unlike Priester, Marco Gonzales and his health are more of a concern, considering the forearm injury is something that has more to it than just that, with Gonzales dealing with nerve damage dating back to last season.

Although health is a concern, Gonzales seems to be throwing about the same amount of pitches at this point as Priester, tossing 62 pitches in his second rehab start with AAA Indianapolis, so it could be a matter of having Gonzales as more of a short-term solution while Priester fine tunes around the edges in AAA.

Gonzales would also be a direct fix for Falter missing time, giving the Pirates a left-handed starting option outside of Perez, so that could be something to monitor as well as the next couple of weeks unfold.

Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft has had a fine season in AA and AAA for the Pirates, and his name being here adds a bit of shock value, so let me explain.

Ashcraft wouldn’t be the best option right now, unless you absolutely despise the idea of a bullpen game, but as mentioned, it appears Priester and Gonzales are nearing returns, so I think that idea is off the table.

A six-man rotation is also off the table, but its July, and with plenty of season left and more innings count watching surely to follow all of this injury news, Ashcraft could come in handy as a young, up-and-coming option for the Pirates rotation.

A 0.49 ERA in three starts with AAA Indianapolis is sure to bring some attention to Ashcraft’s way, and it should, seeing as he only started in AA Altoona 10 times before receiving a promotion. The big question, how much workload can Ashcraft handle having been a reliever transitioning into a starting role?

Ashcraft has never pitched more than he has this season(72.0 IP), with his previous highest inning total coming in 2019, when he threw 53.0 innings. So, you’d have to monitor his innings as well, leaving the potential for a long-relief bullpen role later down the line, but keep an eye on Ashcraft as the season progresses as someone to help fill some much needed innings.

Mike Burrows

Mike Burrows was likely on track to make his MLB debut last season, but Tommy John Surgery required after a handful of innings last year sidelined him for nearly the entirety of 2023.

Now, Burrows is back, pitching with Low-A Bradenton on rehab as he builds towards full-time action again, and if he continues to progress and look good in doing so, than he could be a viable option later this year.

The importance of Burrows pitching consistently is higher than him debuting in 2024, but its something that could very well happen, its just a matter of his progression and how consistent he looks as he ascends through the minor league system back to AAA and beyond.

Bubba Chandler

One out of the park option has to be here, because with cracks now visible with the Falter, Jones, Perez, Priester and Gonzales injuries, anything can happen to these guys at any given moment, and doors can open that we otherwise couldn’t be opened.

A door that could open, even though its highly unlikely, is the debut of the new number one prospect in the Pirates system, Bubba Chandler, who has a 3.65 ERA in AA-Altoona and looks as good as he ever has, proving why he is the Pirates new top prospect with each outing for the Curve.

Chandler already features a four-pitch arsenal with top velocity, and with the athleticism that he possesses, anything is possible for Chandler and his growth.

The likeliest option for Chandler would be a September call-up, and even that’s reaching a bit, but we’ve seen crazier things in terms of promotions(look at Luis Ortiz in 2022), so although it may seem impossible, Chandler’s play may continue to say otherwise depending on the state of the rotation in a couple of months.

The injuries to Falter and Jones have short-term and long-term implications, but the Pirates have something every team seeks to have when entering a 162 game season, depth, and right now, it will be tested, but it seems that the Pirates have the horses to navigate through the injuries to the pitching staff while remaining a steady force on the mound for the next month or so.

Starter Spotlight: Great Scott!

7-8-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following an offensive slugfest in Friday’s game, the bats have struggled to get traction this past weekend against the Mets. Heading into the final game of the series, they’ll have one last shot at New York via their #2 prospect (per MLB Pipeline) in Christian Scott.

A 2021 5th round pick out of Florida, Scott has made 6 starts with the Mets since his MLB debut in early May, and has posted an 0-2 record with a 4.32 ERA over 33.1 innings thus far.

Scott is a precision-over-power arm, consistently posting low walk rates and solid-to-great strikeout numbers throughout the minors with an 11.27 K/9 rate and 2.21 BB/9 rate over 191.2 minor league innings.

His pitch mix consists of throwing a mid-90s 4-seam, low-80s sweeper, high-80s slider and mid-80s splitter.

While Scott works the fastball up against both lefties and righties, he leans on running sweepers in against righties as his main secondary offering while pivoting more to the splitter down and in when facing lefties.

It’s only a small sample size in his MLB career but lefties have hit Scott much better than righties thus far, particularly outside of Citi Field as LHH have a 1.020 OPS when Scott has been the away pitcher compared to a paltry .491 OPS when he’s pitched against them in Queens.

Scott is young and still getting the growing pains of MLB. Pirates hitters should be looking for the elevated fastball. It’s his most-used pitch (52.1%) and has been effective at getting strikeouts but it’s also getting hit HARD. The average exit velocity on the pitch is 94.6 MPH and the lefty-heavy lineup today will be more than capable of hammering it off of – or likely over – the Clemente Wall in today’s matchup.

Expect strikes, hunt fastballs and find a way to get the split today.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Young Pirates, and Why We Need to See More

7-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I know it’s frustrating for fans to feel like their team has some pieces in place, yet not see the team surround those pieces with some established talent.

I also know why exactly it has to be.

See, almost no matter what happens with this build good or bad is going to come from kids. It has to be that way, because the Pirates simply aren’t going to raise payroll dramatically. And if you aren’t going to do that in an environment where a closer gets a 4 year 100 million dollar deal, well, complain all you want, this team whether true or not simply doesn’t feel they can spend their way into this conversation.

They aren’t alone, the Red Sox this offseason made a statement to their fans that is absolutely representative of what you’ve watched in Pittsburgh. And yes, they still outspend the Pirates by a country mile, that’s not the point.

This isn’t to make you feel better, but it’s very much so evidence that teams all over the spectrum, all over the league are shunning the mediocre free agent market in lieu of cheaper, less experienced players, potentially with higher ceilings, also just as potentially, too green to carry a load unless lightning strikes. I’d also say the COVID season both in College and the Pros caused some teams to have to stunt the timeline on development as the league didn’t adjust the calendar for rule 5. Less experience was forced onto 40-man rosters, and damnit, teams hate not at least trying that.

The Pirates knocked out some of this stuff last year by having Peguero, Gonzales, Davis, Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, Oviedo, Rodriguez, Triolo and Suwinski all get significant playing time, unfortunately it’s not benefited everyone equally. Some players have really embraced whatever role they were handed like Gonzales and Ortiz, others have struggled to recapture the bit of success they tasted, got injured or have yet to force their way back onto the roster.

Some of them stunk, some of them showed flashes, but more than anything most of them to some degree had the league punch them in the face somewhere along the line.

There is no way to avoid this. Oh, you can catch a phenom, like Acuna, Strider, Julio, you know, the few, the proud? There just aren’t all that many. Here we are with Skenes and Jones.

In fact, all the energy the Reds had last year came from kids, and they brought up so many, they almost masked each others downfalls. When one struggled, someone else didn’t much of the time. Most of them have returned and faced higher volumes of experience, and many of them have experienced what the league does to a player they’ve got even a thin book on.

They’re talented kids, I’m sure plenty of them will see their way through it and come back in 2025 all the stronger but they eventually for the most part got served a bit early in 2024.

The Pirates youngsters have and will do the same. As good a Paul Skenes is this year, I guarantee he learned that MLB hitters will be as geared up as they can get in the first at bat of the game, best not start with a straight fastball down the middle. Jared Jones went from blowing everyone away with heat to working backwards the majority of at bats. I mean look at the growth of Nick Gonzales this season. How about Luis Ortiz who took being a bullpen arm in stride, excelled, got another chance to work bulk, excelled, and now he’s going to start again because the team needs him, and he didn’t shrink from the challenges he faced.

We’ll focus on the ones that didn’t grow or didn’t look ready for the spotlight, and that’s all well and good, that’s important too, but there have been some success stories. And 9 times out of 10, for every youngster who starts showing he belongs, everyone involved was worried he wasn’t ready, even Paul Skenes had his group that never stopped believing his fastball didn’t move enough. Every good player was once a kid who had to prove himself.

There always has to be room for onboarding kids, it’s a part of this game the Pirates or any team for that matter can’t afford to skip.

This is going to wind up being a big story again in 2025, the catching position is still not a finished product. We probably can say Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez and Joey Bart could all be involved but there is going to have to come growth, onboarding, patience, hope, all the trappings of a good old fashioned development effort. And it HAS to happen.

They’ll always be working on a project somewhere, and that’s not a bad thing, some of them will be the stars we cheer for 5 years from now.

The Rebuild is over, but the build will never end, not truly.

Starter Spotlight: Manaea Matchup

7-7-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following a short-lived southpaw showdown yesterday between Bailey Falter and David Peterson, the Pirates will face-off against one more lefty in Sean Manaea.

Manaea, in his first year with the Mets after his first 8 seasons on the west coast, has provided solid results thus far in his Mets tenure. With a 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.75 K/9 rate, it’s certainly not the worst value New York has gotten from a free agent starting pitcher the past few years.

Looking at his pitch mix, it’s pretty clear where he finds his success as his low-90s sinker is tied for the highest Run Value (11) among all of MLB.

While he throws his sinker 40% of the time, the rest of his arsenal includes a high-70s sweeper, high-80s cutter, mid-80s changeup, low-90s 4-seam and mid-80s slider – but, looking at pitch tracking, he typically struggles to consistently locate his non-sinker options:

Manaea’s control issues have steadily crept in the past few seasons as he’s seen his walk rate climb from 5.4% in 2021 to 10.3% thus far this season, a career-worst mark.

As mentioned previously, his sinker is the go-to pitch, providing success for the veteran lefty despite not generating many ground balls (career-low 36%) and overall getting hit hard (93.6 MPH average exit velocity).

His sweeper has really become a weapon for him, leading to an oBA of just .163 and oSLG of .306 – with expected values even lower. It’s also the highest swing-and-miss pitch among his offerings at 45.2% while finishing off hitters at a 22.8% clip.

Manaea will be facing a heavy dose of right-handed hitters, which is expected anytime a southpaw is on the bump; however, he’s actually provided reverse splits this season in these matchups as lefties have posted 64 more points of batting average and total nearly 200 more points in OPS (.809 vs .616).

Surprisingly, the key for Pirates batters today is attacking that sinker which has been so highly touted. The exit velocity, the expected stats and the average launch angle all indicate that he’s been more lucky than good with the pitch. 

Given that it’s typically the only offering Manaea is able to consistently locate, hitters will want to lay off anything off-speed/breaking and just target that one pitch to drive.

His HR/9 is at a career-low 0.76 and his HR/FB rate of 7.1% is well-below his career average (12.5%) despite increased average exit velocity (89.8MPH) and fly ball rates (43.4%).

Find something to drive, get the ball in the air and get on Manaea early and often.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Keep Pressing On Peterson

7-6-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After a franchise-best 7 home runs last night in the 14-2 rout, the Pirates finally fronted an offensive explosion and will look to repeat that feat today against southpaw David Peterson.

A torn labrum in his left hip required surgery, delaying Peterson’s start to the 2024 season but what he has been able to provide has largely been positive for the Mets resulting in a 3-0 record and 3.51 ERA over his 6 starts to date.

The Mets have won his last 5 starts dating back to June 4th. Consistency has been big for Peterson as he has held opponents to 2 or less earned runs in 5 of his 6 starts but also allowed 2 or more earned runs in 5 of 6 starts as well.

Peterson doesn’t have elite “stuff” but generally relies on his low-90s 4-seam elevated but keeps the rest down in the zone with a low-90s sinker, mid-80s slider, mid-80s changeup and high-70s curve.

His changeup has produced the best results for Peterson with an oBA of .120 and oSLG of .240 – both of which are tops among his offerings. His other options haven’t fared as well with his slider getting especially hit hard at a .344 clip and slugged at a .594 rate.

As far as other splits go, this year, he has pitched better on the road than at home, posting a 2.84 ERA over 19 innings as a visitor compared to 14.1 frames with a 4.40 ERA at home. However, this comes in contrast to his career numbers, which have a 3.62 home/5.19 away splits.

His xERA (5.82) is significantly higher than his actual ERA (3.51) to the extent that the gap between the two is among the highest in MLB. Eventually, those numbers regress at least closer to the mean.

Hitting can be contagious and Bucs bats need to build off yesterday’s success. Hitters need to target the fastballs and slider while spitting on the changeup.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Rowdy Tellez Has Shown the Best, and Worst of Himself, and Us at the Same Time

7-6-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Rowdy, Rowdy, Rowdy!

I was there when it started rebounding for Rowdy Tellez with the fan base. Sitting in Center Field, watching a game that felt like a sure loss before I even sat down.

It was a bullpen game, and at the time, we weren’t all that excited about Carmen Mlodzinski opening for Luis Ortiz, and shocker alert, the offense wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders.

Rowdy Tellez came to the plate in front of a packed house on Pirate Parrot Concert Tee night at the ballpark and was met by what had become his customary boos. Thing is, he had started swinging the bat a bit better back in Toronto, but let’s be real, sell outs on a T-shirt night in June are not exactly 30 thousand educated and plugged in fans.

He sucked, they heard boos from the people who do it, they heard on the news he said fans shouldn’t boo, they joined in. It’s the only way to explain how a ball park full of people who were booing, flipping the switch to chanting his name.

See, fans who actually know what’s happening, know that one swing of the bat doesn’t take someone from awful to awesome.

Truth is, the Pirates weren’t even getting the low end of what Rowdy historically has done, and while they put forth a public face that they supported him, his hourglass was just about out of sand.

I had no expectation he’d hit 35 homeruns like he did in 2022 but I thought he could do better than his 13 in 2023. It was a good bet, he was injured much of 2023 after all, and I simply don’t believe there are many first basemen they could have signed who had more potential. Rhys Hoskins is he popular name, but he’s only caught 40 games, many of which he was defensively replaced. He has hit 12 dingers compared to Rowdy’s 7 homers, but again, Rowdy hardly touched a baseball for the first 2 months of the season.

In his past 30 games, 97 at bats, he’s slashing .309/.350/.546.

If you just parachuted in to catch the Paul Skenes freak show, chances are you look at his season numbers and rightly see them as underwhelming. They are.

Rowdy Tellez has really experienced the worst of his career, and the best of his career in a matter of 3 months, and Pirates fans took the ride with him.

We heard a guy who wasn’t performing and just got here telling us to have more respect for a player that had damn near been the face of this franchise for the previous 3 seasons in David Bednar when he caught the boo birds.

As “punishment” for struggling himself, many of us decided to make sure he knew how wrong it was for him to lecture us. He didn’t know our pain! He didn’t have a right to pretend he could tell us how to act. I mean, look at him, overweight, not hitting at all, how dare you?

Now the thing is, he’s hitting, probably better than it’ll look like when it’s all added up at the end of the year because of how deep and dark the hole was early on, and fans are really starting to have fun with it.

Maybe this is all just natural fandom. The Yin and Yang of struggle vs performance and a frustrated fan base.

Maybe it’s a lesson that snap judgements really have no place in baseball. That’s not how the game works. It’s a series of series, a culmination of good and bad stretches. When they happen right out the gate, there’s no buffer of numbers to take the edge off.

Think about Connor Joe, started the year hot as hell, struggling now, but your perception of Joe never dipped as low as it did for Rowdy, even while in his past 30 games he’s hit .202.

If he started that way, first of all, the Pirates record would be much worse. Second, he’d in no way be seen as a positive contributor. I mean, without looking, do you see him as a .245 hitter? He is, but his hot start is what many remember.

He has that hot streak in him, and before the season is over, he’ll get back on one, in fact he’s hitting .353 in his last 7.

Rowdy showed us just how wrong we can be, and sometimes it works in reverse.

Keep this situation in mind when you decide Henry Davis is a bust after 310 career MLB at bats. Guys get better, they get worse too, and sometimes everything seems to click after one swing. For Rowdy, it was a really long fly ball that went foul followed by a homerun into the bushes at PNC Park.

I couldn’t be happier for him. You can say whatever you want about Rowdy on the field, but off the field, he’s done nothing but be locker room glue, even while struggling. In fact, even while he was struggling mightily players would regularly talk about how he was always there to talk.

Management had his back, but trust me it had a limit. He could have just let the boos envelop him, instead, he took it as deserved and fought back. He fought back for a player that never deserved that kind of treatment, and quietly accepted it being directed at him. Leadership comes in all forms and this one has made his mark on Pittsburgh, even if it’s just this season.

Believing we know what everyone is going to be from the jump is a dumb but very human experience. This year’s team has shown us how wrong that can make us at times.

Starter Spotlight: Searching for a Savvy Start Against Sevy

7-5-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

While the Pirates have lost 4 of their last 6 games to teams above them in the wild card standings, they hope to turn things around today.

With the Mets coming to town, who themselves have been mired in a bit of a slump as they too have lost 4 of their last 6, Pirates ace Paul Skenes will spar against arguably the Mets ace in Luis Severino.

Last time the Pirates faced the Severino, he allowed just 5 hits, 3 walks and zero earned runs while striking out 4 batters in 6 innings of work.

Additionally, 3 of those 5 hits were infield singles and another batter reached base via catchers interference, later scoring on one of those infield hits.

Severino has gone 5+ innings in all 16 of his starts this season, lasting 6+ in ten of those games and 7+ in four outings. He enters play today with a team-best 3.42 ERA in 97.1 innings pitched this year, holding a 5-2 record and 74:32 K:BB rate.

Looking at his pitch mix, he throws mid-90s 4-seamer and sinker, primarily utilizing the sinker against right-handed hitters and the 4-seam when facing lefties. He pairs those with a mid-80s sweeper and high-80s slider thrown down and in against RHH – and then adds a mid-80s changeup and low-90s cutter against lefties, with the changeup working in against those hitters and the cutter breaking down and away.

The sweeper part has fared well against righties with a .179 wOBA but his slider has been hit at a .276 clip and his sinker slugged at .358 with expected slugging percentage of .455.

Against LHH, his 4-seam has been mostly effective at neutralizing opposing batters, generating 31 of his 74 strikeouts on the year but his changeup’s .296 oBA is the highest among his offerings and his changeup’s oSLG of .407 is the highest in that respective category.

In the last start against Severino, Oneil Cruz had some surprising success as he went 2-for-3 in those matchups with all three batted balls having an exit velocity of 103.4 or higher.

Sevy has strong home/away splits with a 2.82 ERA through 54.1 innings pitching in Queens and a 4.19 ERA over 43 frames away from Citi Field.

Lefties need to watch on the elevated fastball and key-in on hanging offerings from the changeup/cutter mix.

Righties will want to sit hanging sinker. Sevy has allowed 3 home runs to just six strikeouts with the sinker so far this season while netting just a 13.3% whiff rate on the offering. If you see it, take a shot.

Start the weekend series hot and hit the Mets hard.

Let’s Go Bucs!

If The Pirates are Going to Compete, It Will Be Led by Players Already on the Roster

7-5-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Yes, the General Manager will have to add to this team if they’re truly going to go anywhere in 2024, but there’s an unescapable truth too, one most fans don’t want to hear.

As evidenced by quite literally not being able to hear Ben Cherington utter it without believing the team is all the way back to 2020.

The Truth is, If they win, it’ll be because guys like Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, and Henry Davis lead the charge. These are all players who are here, should be here for the foreseeable future, and more than anything, they provide things that aren’t going to come cheap or easy on the market.

Now, you can hate hearing that, you can hate the GM saying it, you can certainly hate me saying it, but if you deny it, I’m sorry, you never thought they were good enough in the first place.

I really want you to think about how the team could truly improve without contributions from these players. They aren’t going to go get a third baseman, so good, bad or ugly, Ke’Bryan Hayes is going to keep being in the lineup.

Oneil Cruz is going to play most days, regardless of who they sign or trade for. Bryan Reynolds will look up in September and have played close to 155 games of the 162 if he’s healthy. Jack and Davis could be upgraded, probably should be upgraded, but they aren’t going to acquire someone who catches and provides anywhere near the hoped for contribution from Hank. Jack could find himself on the bench or minors, but nothing would be better for this team than for him to find his stroke.

A month ago, many fans thought it was a sure thing this team would have to go out and get 2 or 3 relievers. Now, they probably aren’t all that far from having Borucki, Bednar, Chapman, Mlodzinski, Holderman, Ortiz and Nicolas. That’s 7 arms I personally feel good about in the pen. I didn’t mention Hunter Stratton, or Braxton Ashcraft.

See, the improvement for the floundering bullpen, was right there, on the roster, waiting to improve.

I’m not sure if you recall, but the team officials said all the same stuff about the bullpen as they have the offense back when it was the bane of our existence, and look at where they are now. Even while anything but healthy.

The team can be completely wrong, but the fact is, many of these players, simply aren’t guys the team can easily replace.

They said all this same unacceptable stuff about Rowdy Tellez, and all he’s done is become one of the hotter hitters in baseball for a month.

It’s such a fine line between sitting on your hands and being appropriately patient. Of course it’s dependent on how often it works but for this GM, I don’t see many people who bring up when he was right on this front, do you?

I mean, there’s a reason, because being right about something small while the overall picture is still pretty ugly tends to not net you much recognition for doing the right things.

Bottom line, if this team is in it, they’ll add, and they have room for it to be a really good player, they just have to be specific about where that player fits, because as I said, many of these underperforming players, well, they aren’t getting replaced.

Elephant in the room, Andy Haines has not shown the ability to help improve the pieces they have the way Oscar Marin has. And no coach has a 100% hit rate, the evidence is simply mounting that Oscar Marin is well above the line. In fact, he’s the only coach the Pirates have that in my mind has likely put his name on the radar of MLB, the second he’s cut loose he’ll have another job. Veterans improve with him quite often, he has two rookie pitchers dominating MLB, he took a project and turned him into Mitch Keller. Hey, maybe this is easier, Bailey Friggin’ Falter.

On the offensive side, man, how can I describe what a hitting coach brings to the proceedings? First most guys will tell you if you ask, and we live in a city where players go to meet and greets all the time. You don’t have to rely on me for this, ask them.

Then you meet them, instead of telling them you saw them hit that one ball against the Cardinals and gushing while you wait for them to scribble their signature, ask them actual baseball questions, they for the most part genuinely love this.

The first thing you learn is the hitting coaches, and I mean good ones, bad ones, do essentially the same thing at the big league level. They chart, they formulate plans for attack against individual pitchers.

“Help” tends to be limited to timing adjustments, hand positioning, maybe a tempo suggestion in stride. Almost everyone I’ve ever talked to has a bunch of guys in their personal life who they get advice from.

Something that could be missing, communication between the Manager and the Hitting Coach, and by this I mean, who’s in a good place, vs who isn’t, but this could just as easily be Derek Shelton feeling much more passionately about splits or even just who he personally trusts.

Either way, they’ve presided over 3 of the worst Pirates offenses, if you include this season, in recent history. In many ways, what they do doesn’t matter, because frankly, it isn’t working.

They can change that, or they can continue to only manage to add 1 or 2 guys who “get” it every year.

I will say this, the sentence “whoever they get Haines will screw up” is moronic. Anyone acquired at the deadline will barely be touched. They won’t try to impart “the Pirates way” on them. They won’t have Haines try to improve them. They’ll get scouting reports and solicited advice, that’s about it.

Therein lies the problem.

Ben Cherington is absolutely correct when he says this team needs to improve internally much more than believing the deadline will cure all ails. Derek Shelton is too. The problem is, both of these gentlemen are expecting that somehow the things they’ve done over 3 years to improve their players offensively, has largely failed, so expecting that same system to now maximize these players in a matter of months on it’s face is disingenuous.

That doesn’t change the truth though. These players have to be better, they have to be the ones who largely make this club better.

I think that’s largely going to be an unfruitful endeavor, to me the question is, will they finally decide they’ve seen enough of this offensive coaching unit or will we enter year 4 of thinking we have talent and watching it wither?

Yup, improve internally. I believe some of it is in there, if only from Cruz starting to trust his ankle and kicking the rust off. But if you’re waiting for Haines to unlock Henry, well, you better hope Henry unlocks himself. If you’re waiting for Andy to convince Ke’Bryan to just embrace being a singles hitter and be better at it, don’t hold your breath. Baseball is hard, Coaching is supposed to make some of the hard come without thought via repetition and understanding.

I hope one day to understand what this management group thinks they see.

Series Preview: Mets (42-43) at Pirates (41-45)

7-5-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Well, lovers of Burger King, Wendy’s, Arby’s or any other fast food chain, it’s time to face your biggest enemy, Grimace, the purple, well, whatever he’s supposed to be, pseudo mascot of the New York Mets since, well it, I guess, threw out the first pitch at a Mets game a few weeks ago.

Following a brutal series loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Pirates welcome the Mets to PNC Park for Bucco Luau weekend for a four-game set, a critical series for both teams and their wild card hopes, and yes, I just said that in July.

Pittsburgh, sitting at 41-45, is now four games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, while the Mets are 2.5 games out at 42-43, trailing the previously mentioned Cardinals.

The Mets enter this series after splitting a series with the Washington Nationals, losing the final two games of the series. The last time these teams met, it was at Citi Field, with the Mets winning two-out-of-three games over the Pirates.

Both of these teams will be looking for yet another big series win, or at worst a split, as the All-Star Break draws closer, so let’s preview the action that will take place at PNC Park over the next four days.

7/5
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 4-0, 52.1 IP, 2.06 ERA, 70 Ks/10 walks, 1.03 WHIP
Mets – Luis Severino (R) – 5-2, 97.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 74 Ks/32 walks, 1.16 WHIP

7/6
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 4-6, 88.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 59 Ks/26 walks, 1.14 WHIP
Mets – David Peterson (L) – 3-0, 33.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 22 Ks/14 walks, 1.44 WHIP

7/7
Pirates – TBD –
Mets – Sean Manaea (L) – 5-3, 83.1 IP, 3.67 ERA, 81 Ks/36 walks, 1.27 WHIP

7/8
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 9-5, 103.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 96 Ks/27 walks, 1.25 WHIP
Mets – Christian Scott (R) – 0-2, 33.1 IP, 4.32 ERA, 27 Ks/8 walks, 1.14 WHIP

Pirates: Rowdy Tellez

Rowdy Tellez was the scapegoat for all of the Pirates issues in April and May, but ever since his best buddy Xander came to see him play in Toronto, the flip has switched for Tellez and his performance.

Tellez has a .309/.343/.485 slash with 4 HR and 15 RBIs over the past 30 games, with three of those home runs coming in the last seven games he’s appeared in. He’s been playing well, and despite the Mets throwing two left-handers, Rowdy should play the majority of the series with the way his bat is playing right now.

Mets: Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is one of the pillars for the Mets success and also one of the biggest reasons they’ve played such great baseball as of late.

Lindor has a .309/.329/.559 slash with 3 HR and 9 RBIs in his past 15 games and currently has a .756 OPS on the season. Those numbers are below his career averages, but when you consider the start to the season that Lindor and the Mets had, New York will surely take what he’s been able to do over the past few weeks to a month.

Pirates: Colin Holderman

Colin Holderman could very well end at up at the All-Star game in a few weeks representing the Pirates, but as of late, Holderman has hit a rough patch after being untouchable for most of the season.

A 5.14 ERA over his past seven appearances is worrisome, especially when you consider his high leverage role in the bullpen. The runs he’s allowed didn’t exactly lose the Pirates the games they lost, but heading into a crucial series against his former team, one would hope Holderman will be at his best because the Pirates need everybody to be.

Mets: JD Martinez

JD Martinez was a marquee signing for the Mets this past offseason, and overall, he’s done rather well, posting an .851 OPS with 10 HR and 37 RBIs, but he hasn’t had that same success recently for New York.

Martinez has a .185/.353/.370 slash in his last 27 at-bats, an indication of a slump arriving for the 36-year old designated hitter. With three right-handers expected to go for Pittsburgh, with two of them being Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, this could be yet another tough stretch for Martinez.

Key Injuries

Pirates

Pittsburgh announced on Wednesday that Jared Jones would be heading to the 15-day IL as a result of a lat strain, effectively removing him from the roster through the next couple weeks up to the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Henry Davis is on another rehab assignment with concussion symptoms, while Marco Gonzales, Ryan Borucki and Quinn Priester continue to make headway for returns soon.

Mets

Starling Marte has been out since June 23 with a knee injury, with a return expected soon. Drew Smith is on the 15-day IL with an elbow injury, as is Sean Reid-Foley with a shoulder injury. Brooks Raley, Shintaro Fujinami, and Ronny Mauricio are all on the 60-day IL.

What to Watch

Honestly, in a series of this magnitude in July, I am looking for which team strikes early and often in these games. Both of these teams have been outscored in their last 10 games, and both of these teams feature solid pitching heading into this one, so getting early leads is going to be huge in deciding which team may come out and ultimately win this four-game set.

This four-game set will have somewhat of a playoff feel, even in July, because both of these teams are still right in the middle of the NL Wild Card race, and finding a way to win, or at least split, these four games is crucial for both sides, so scoring early is what I am watching for in this one.