Starter Spotlight: Looking For A Pallante-Cleansing Series Win

7-4-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Happy Independence Day, Pirates fans! Hoping to continue some of the fireworks from last night, the Bucs will look to win the rubber match in their matchup today facing Andre Pallante.

Pallante enters play today with a 4-3 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.58 ERA over 38 innings thus far this season, joining the rotation in late-May after spending the first month pitching strictly in relief. 

He has performed significantly better since moving to the rotation, posting a 3.86 ERA over 28 frames starting compared to 6.30 in his 10 innings of relief.

In his 13 career appearances against the Pirates, they have all come out of the bullpen and resulted in a 5.14 ERA over 14 innings dating back to April 2022.

His arsenal consists of a fastball-heavy approach, leading with a mid-90s 4-seam and mid-90s sinker (which combine for 74% of his total pitches) and tossing in a high-80s slider and low-80s knuckle-curve to break up the velocity and movement as his secondaries.

The 4-seamer is mostly used against left-handed hitters middle-up while Pallante leans on the sinker when facing righties, working the pitch away from the hitters and hammering glove side.

His main secondary offering against rights has been the slider while when facing lefties, he leans on his nasty curve, which has generated a 40% whiff rate and an opponents batting average of .100.

In fact, despite only throwing the pitch 80 times thus far this season, Pallante has notched 10 of his 28 strikeouts via the curve.

Despite that, Pallante has not historically been a swing-and-miss arm and has relied on weak contact and ground balls to find success. His average exit velocity (86.1 MPH) ranks in the 93rd percentile in baseball while his barrel rate (3.4% – 94th percentile) and ground ball rate (60.2% – 97th percentile) are also in the elite tier.

Pallante has some strong reverse splits as right-handed hitters have nearly double the OPS against him (.995) as lefties (.510).

They also have been less prone to put the ball on the ground (21.3% ground ball rate vs 73.7% for LHH), likely due in part to seeing less sinkers.

Granted, it’s a small sample size influenced by a split reliever/starter stretch but even his career numbers (.235/.290/.337 for LHH and .322/.408/.451 for RHH) indicate that the struggles are legitimate.

Either way, it’s something to keep an eye on in the game today, especially as Cutch enters his annual hot weekend.

Let’s have more than just fireworks in the sky as we look to raise the Jolly Roger over the rival Red Birds!

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Miles Markers

7-3-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After falling short in game one, the Pirates will have to face off against Miles Mikolas, who had his best start of the season last time he faced the Bucs on June 11 with 7 innings of 1-hit shutout ball in his 2nd near no-hitter facing the Bucs. Maybe things go better this go-round?

We covered most of the major points in the previous preview and much of it continues to be true as, outside of his lone excellent outing against Pittsburgh, Mikolas has struggled to miss bats but continues throwing strikes – to mostly poor results. 

In his last start versus the Reds, Mikolas allowed 10 runs (9 earned) off 12 hits and 1 walk with just one strikeout in 4.1 innings. His fastballs have been his most used (25.9%: 4-seam/24.4%: sinker) but with drastically different results as his sinker has been a plus pitch and his 4-seamer has been increasingly hammered.

In that aforementioned Reds outing, Mikolas threw the 4-seamer 32 times out of 94 pitches, generating 14 swings and only one whiff; however, it was a lot of weak contact due to the low velocity (92.7 average MPH) creating an exit velocity of just 81 MPH – compared to his sinker, which was getting CRUSHED in that game at a 98 MPH EV clip.

Mikolas is going to throw strikes and a lot of them are going to look like meatballs. Bucs batters need to pick a pitch – any pitch – and just sit on it. The mistakes are going to be there and even with Mikolas’s excellent career numbers against the Pirates (2.90 ERA over 118 innings), they should be able to find a way to break through.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Not Your Grandfather’s Gibson

7-2-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

It’s been nearly 50 years since the Cardinals had a starting pitcher with the surname Gibson – and while today’s starter doesn’t have the hall of fame trajectory of his predecessor, the Pirates will still have barriers to beating their opponent in tonight’s match: Kyle Gibson.

Signed this past offseason by St. Louis, the 36-year old veteran righty is having a solid first half with the Cardinals, entering tonight with a 5-3 record, 3.70 ERA and 1.24 over his 87.2 innings pitched.

Having faced the Pirates four times previously, Gibson managed 5 innings in his start against the Bucs last season where he allowed 4 runs off 7 hits and 3 walks to 5 strikeouts in the game.

That said, strikeouts are not a big part of the well-traveled righty’s game. Gibson is a ground ball merchant, working mostly low-90s sinker, low-80s sweeper and high-80s cutter to aid in his excellent 49.4% ground ball rate.

He also offers a 4-seam fastball, changeup and curve used less frequently but everything is typically either down or running inside against opposing hitters. His expected numbers across the board indicate that he’s been more lucky than good thus far this year, and luck only goes so far in this game.

His .264 BABIP is well below his career rate of .304 and his xERA (4.84), FIP (4.19) and xFIP (4.05) are all close to what he posted last season when he had a 4.73 ERA during his last year in Baltimore.

He has become less effective as the season progressed as he allowed 3+ runs in 3 of his last 4 started last month with a 25:11 K:BB ratio in those 22.2 innings.

His career ERA in the 2nd half of the season (5.13) is more than a full run higher than his first half (4.02).

Additionally, Gibson has reverse home/away splits as he’s performed better on the road (2.68 ERA/.172 oBA) than at home (4.70 ERA/.276 oBA).

Key to victory is getting to Gibson early. Lay off the sweeper (44.9% whiff rate) but attack anything hard and elevated. The expected batting average on his non-sweeper/changeup offerings are all .280+ and, eventually, results will reflect that.

Don’t let him get settled in early as he has a 4.65 ERA first time through a lineup but drops to 2.29 second time around.

Gibson has gotten lucky lately but he’s been hit harder lately and the dam is looking to break. Break it tonight and get that Jolly Roger raised.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Cardinals (43-40) at Pirates (40-43)

7-2-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Time for some get back isn’t it?

It’s the first series of July for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they welcome their NL Central rival, the St. Louis Cardinals, a team they played for the first time in 2024 just a few weeks ago, losing two of three in Busch Stadium.

In that series, despite the two losses, Pittsburgh did not allow more than four earned runs while not scoring more than three, so a defensive series could be on tap once again at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh currently trails St. Louis by three games, as evidence to the mirrored records, with the Cardinals winning seven of their past 10 and the Pirates splitting their last ten games down the middle at 5-5.

The Pirates enter this crucial series on the heels of a series loss to the Atlanta Braves, salvaging a game in the series on Sunday. The Cardinals enter after a series win over the Cincinnati Reds, separating St. Louis and Cincinnati by about 4.5 games in the division.

Pittsburgh avoids Sonny Gray this time around, with the Cardinals rotations featuring three right-handers, while Pittsburgh will toss two right-handers and a left-hander.

So, let’s take a look at both of these teams as they enter what I consider a must-win series for both teams to begin the month of July.

7/2
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) –9-4, 98.1 IP, 3.30 ERA, 91 Ks/27 walks, 1.22 WHIP
Cardinals – Kyle Gibson (R) – 5-3, 87.2 IP, 3.70 ERA, 77 Ks/36 walks, 1.24 WHIP

7/3
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) –5-6, 86.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 93 Ks/25 walks, 1.10 WHIP
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas (R) – 6-7, 94.2 IP, 5.32 ERA, 68 Ks/18 walks, 1.25 WHIP

7/4
Pirates – Martin Perez (L) –1-4, 61.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 50 Ks/21 walks, 1.61 WHIP
Cardinals – Andre Pallante (R) – 4-3, 38.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 31 Ks/18 walks, 1.58 WHIP

Pirates: Nick Gonzales

This spot has usually been reserved by Bryan Reynolds over the past couple weeks, and rightfully should be, but Nick Gonzales seems to be coming out of his first real lull in the 2024 season since returning to the big league roster.

Gonzales has hit safely in four of his past five games, including two multi-hit games versus Atlanta and Cincinnati. Gonzales has a .280/.333/.360 slash in his past seven-games and has become a steady presence in the Pirates middle of the order.

In the past matchup between these two teams, Gonzales hit 1-for-4 in two games, with both of his hits being of the double fashion, so expect a potentially big series from Gonzales versus the Red Birds.

Cardinals: Brendan Donovan
Brendan Donovan has had quite the season for the Cardinals, posting a .742 OPS with 8 HR and 41 RBIs.

In his past seven, he has a .292/.393/.333 slash with three RBIs, and outside of shortstop Masyn Winn, you could argue Donovan has been one of the more consistent hitters in the Cardinals lineup this year.

Donovan recorded a hit in all three games of the prior series between these clubs, which included one home run and two RBIs. Keep an eye on the versatile Donovan as he’ll face two strong right-handers in Mitch Keller and Jared Jones and face a tough left-handed matchup with Martin Perez.

Pirates: Jared Jones
Jared Jones has had one heck of a rookie season, and it’s hard to place him in this category, but the league seems to be pushing back a bit.

Jones has allowed five earned runs or more in two of his past five starts, failing to exit the fifth inning in either of those starts. Jones also hasn’t pitched in over a week after going seven strong versus Tampa Bay, but a 4.85 ERA over his past seven outings is cause for at least some worry.

This series will be the first time that Jones faces the Cardinals in his career, seeing as he did not start in the prior series, and the Cardinals offense will be a challenge, but one that could potentially get Jones back on the right track if he can command his stuff accordingly.

Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt
St. Louis has had the duo of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt for some time now, and at age 36, I think we are starting to see the decline begin for Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt is hitting .225 on the season with a .655 OPS, recording 11 homers and 33 RBIs, numbers the Cardinals cannot be all that happy about with the payday that Goldschmidt garners.

Things haven’t been much better over the past seven games, as Goldschmidt has a .160/.222/.320 slash in 25 at-bats, and with two powerful right-handers on the mound for Pittsburgh, the struggles will seemingly continue for Goldschmidt.

Key Injuries

Pirates:
Pittsburgh is still looking to get healthy as far as pitching is concerned, recently getting Martin Perez back from the IL and awaiting the returns of Marco Gonzales, Ryan Borucki and Quinn Priester, who seem to be getting closer and closer to returning.

Henry Davis has his rehab halted after complications with his concussion, struggling during the short stint before his rehab halted. That leaves Joey Bart and Yasmani Grandal to man the catcher position for now.

Cardinals:
St. Louis has pitching injuries of their own, with Steven Matz and Kenyan Middleton both of the 60-day IL.

Lars Nootbar, who has dealt with injuries all season, is on the IL with an oblique injury, while the Cardinals hope down the line that Tommy Edman can make a return at some point this season, although the wrist injury could keep him sidelined for the entirety of 2024.

What to Watch

Watch the Pirates offense versus the Cardinals starting pitching in this series.

Pittsburgh had a strong series in Cincinnati offensively, recording 30 hits across the three games versus Cincinnati, but they saw a decline in production in the Peach State this past weekend. The Pirates are obviously a much better team when the offense is clicking, posting a 28-12 record on the season when the offense records eight hits or more.

Avoiding Sonny Gray helps the cause for a much better series offensively for Pittsburgh, and with two of their three best pitchers going, run support will be huge. If Pittsburgh can pitch well versus St. Louis, which they’ve proven they can do already versus St. Louis earlier this year, then they can easily take the series here, and quite honestly, they have to take the series to remain confident moving towards big series versus the Mets and Brewers prior to the All-Star break.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – A Key 13 Game Stretch

7-1-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates did some good work since we last met up in this space. Yeah, they lost 2 of 3 to the Braves, but they nipped the Reds again too. Now the Cardinals come to town, because Pirates vs Cardinals on the 4th is about as close to watching the good guys kick some redcoat ass as I’ll come in my lifetime.

The surging and possibly McDonalds fueled Mets come next then the Brewers and White Sox. This stretch here, could flatly determine how the deadline plays out for this team.

Lets go!

1. Who Might the Pirates Trade from the 26-man?

Here’s the thing, I know what many fans think, they have a bunch of rentals they signed and they’ll trade them all of course, regardless of any other factor. That’s not the truth, but it is what you’ve been taught to assume. I mean, the Fan, or whoever you see on the 6 o’clock news probably didn’t understand why guys were moved in 2021, and that of course won’t make them understand why any of them would be moved in 2024.

From Spring, I’ve been saying, the team could very well move “rentals” even as they acquire more talent at the same time. I put it forward as a possibility because if everything went great, I thought that’s very much so where they could be, and to a degree, that’s what these 13 games will give us a much better look at.

Let’s talk about what would trigger each potentially being moved.

Rental
Rowdy Tellez – For Rowdy to be moved, the team would have to either have plans to acquire, or have acquired a better left handed first baseman. The month of July could see Rowdy revert and in that case, he may be cast off regardless of the return. I think he stays unless he has a downturn from June that looks like April/May or they upgrade.

Michael A. Taylor – He’s been awful really, if they can find a taker, here’s hoping they take it. If not, CF has to be something they try to upgrade. In it or out of it, I’m not sure I see a place for Michael.

Ryan Borucki – He hasn’t pitched most of the season and he’ll easily get an MLB job from someone next year, without a tryout or NRI. For Ryan to be moved the team would have to feel they’re out of it, and even then, they might just keep him and move the pricier lefty.

Aroldis Chapman – It’s become a yearly tradition, but if the Pirates are in it, he’ll be here and part of it in all likelihood.

Yasmani Grandal – At some point the Pirates will need to make a move to call Henry Davis back up to MLB. He’s their best bet at offensive production from Catcher, and yes, I did watch him play this year. He’s important, and I can’t see Grandal surviving this roster, not after Joey Bart turned out to be better than they’ve had at backup.

Marco Gonzales – Hurt most of the season, and when he comes back, he could help provide valuable rest for the Pirates young staff, but I could picture a world where Marco is a target for a fringe team in the Wild Card race, come to think of it, that’s kinda us.

Martin Perez – Much like Gonzales, but Perez brings bullpen experience to the table too. There could be a legitimate market for Martin, and the Pirates might be smart to move him regardless of where they are in the standings.

2. Elephant in the Room

Of all the underperformances this season, Jack Suwinski no longer has a dance partner. Others have not lived up to expectation, others have struggled for large swaths, but nobody has had what appeared to be a pretty firm lock on hitting 25 homeruns in this league and fallen as far as Jack.

He was called back up to MLB after an injury to Ji Hwan Bae (who didn’t do much himself, but I digress) and for some reason, he’s still here, kinda doing next to nothing.

The Pirates have Josh Palacios, Ji Hwan Bae (see earlier), and Matt Gorski who could play CF to varying degrees and none of them are a sure fire better bet. Still, Jack has really not done much to show he’s turning a corner.

If you want an excuse, it’s probably much like Rowdy, they planned on getting something from him, they haven’t, nobody else they have to turn to can provide specifically what they wanted to get from Jack.

I can’t see this going beyond the deadline either way. Although, I suppose I could say if you’re going to play one CF who isn’t hitting, maybe pick the one who might be here in 2025.

Weird handling all year really. From not playing him like at all in the opening series after having him face everyone all Spring long, to this inexplicable prolonged failure to even look like a talented rookie.

3. Ke’Bryan Hayes Needs a Mission

Let’s take Ke’Bryan Hayes and help get him going and fix the terrible bottom of the order at the same time. I’d put Hayes 7 or 8 in the order and split up the valley of nothingness that part of the order has become. Even as Hayes has struggled, he’s a step above what’s down there and he could help make it less of a destination for opposing pitchers to work around others and hopefully get an easy out of a jam.

Make it his mission this year to help that bottom 3 look less toothless. Let him own it, responsible for it. Anything to cut down on having an area of nothingness.

At this point, I don’t care why Hayes is a bottom of the order hitter. Health, just being a poor hitter, whatever, it hardly matters because the fact is, he’s hitting like one, and if he’s more capable than that, well, let him hit his way out of the bottom third.

Does this mean he has a worse hitter ahead of him somewhere, oh yeah, but it also gives him a chance to find his way with less pressure. The best thing that could happen is Hayes finds a way to get productive again.

4. Pitching Injury Armageddon?

The Pirates announced a rash of minor league pitching IL trips over the weekend. Guys like Braxton Ashcraft, Sean Sullivan, David Matoma, and others.

I can’t tell you none of these are real injuries, nobody can or will in fact, but I can say, it’s very likely this is nothing more than trying to give guys extra rest around the All Star Break.

Again, I can’t tell you none of this is real, at this point in a season, technically everyone who plays the game could probably be shut down for some ailment.

This is one of those “baseball things” that fans tend to struggle to understand, or at least accept, but I’d rather try to address it head on than to have most of you assume the evil puppet master who controls our team had the voodoo dolls working overtime again.

5. The Lack of Urgency Happened This Winter

Listen, no matter what you think, the trade market opens when it opens. Wanting teams to make moves now because you want to be urgent, doesn’t make them have the same urgency. Spending more than anyone else would right now is the one way, and frankly, even then for the top targets, zero chance they pull the trigger without seeing alternative offers.

That’s not how baseball works. And Should be, well, it really doesn’t matter.

The team you assemble in the Winter is your team. You can adjust from within, you can take castoffs form elsewhere, but by in large, your team is what you put together.

There’ll be surprise contributions earlier than you thought, and there’ll be guys who flatly don’t provide a quarter of what you planned on.

To a degree, a GM that thinks his or her team should be in the conversation has to build up enough to weather storms and keep the team in the hunt until the trade market opens, then, if what he built is really going to do anything, that base will be what got them there. The Pirates need help, and this base needs to prove the help needs to come right now, this July.

The fact is, it’s a bet and Ben made some bad ones. Ones that I’d have made too mind you in many cases. Some I wouldn’t have.

Point is, this offseason was the time to have urgency. Now is the time to deal with the repercussions for not having more then to a degree, and to hope you at least did enough to still be in position to fix it.

It’s also not a time I personally am going to get mad about. I’ve wanted a team in the fight, and I have one. I’m hardly going to complain because they didn’t leapfrog the league and go from bottom 5 to top 5.

Pirates 5 Up, 5 Down: June

7-1-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Well folks, June has come and gone, and truthfully, it feels like the 2024 MLB season is continuing to fly by, as we’ve now seen three complete months of baseball up to this point.

Most teams, especially teams in the National League, have a shot at the postseason, with the NL Wild Card still as wild as it was to begin June. That includes the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are now 40-43 as they enter July, firmly involved in the race for the postseason with the All-Star break just a few weeks away.

As far as June is concerned, it was the first month of the season, excluding the four games in March, in which the Pirates finished the month above .500, going 14-12, two games over the .500 mark thanks to a series finale win over the Atlanta Braves on Sunday.

So as usual on this monthly piece, let’s take a look at five players who had a June they’d like to build on moving forward and five players who will be looking to bounce back as the calendar turns to July.

Who’s Up??

Bryan Reynolds

This is a no-brainer of sorts when discussing players who had a very strong month of June.

Bryan Reynolds absolutely tore the cover off the ball in June, slashing .330/.388/.604/.992 with 6 HR and 16 RBIs, including a 25-game hitting streak that came to an end on Sunday.

Because of the insane hitting streak, Reynolds raised his batting average from .249, his average on May 31, to .275 by the end of June, a month that has been very kind to Reynolds over the course of his career as evidence to his .345 career batting average in 492 plate appearances in June.

His career .414 BABIP in June suggests that this shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to fans and even Reynolds himself. Historically, July is not as kind a month to Reynolds, who’s .680 OPS across his career would suggest that Reynolds may come back down to earth a bit.

Even if he does come back down a bit, Reynolds is still a strong second half hitter, slashing .279/.352/.482/.834 in his career after the first 82 games are done, so don’t expect a massive drop off in production from Reynolds anytime soon.

The matter of the fact is that when Reynolds is hot, the team usually is as well, and as mentioned earlier, the Pirates finished above-.500 in June, and Reynolds had plenty to do with that achievement.

Paul Skenes

May was the introduction of Paul Skenes to Pirates fans and the baseball world, a debut of massive proportions that had all eyes locked onto the North Shore and PNC Park.

Skenes has been fantastic since his highly anticipated debut on May 11, and if any doubts were thrown around about his production at the highest level, well, he’s shut all of those down in tremendous fashion.

The month of May was a strong one for Skenes, posting a 2.45 ERA in 22.0 IP with 30 strikeouts and 5 walks. Somehow, he was even more impressive in June, posting a 1.78 ERA in 30.1 IP with 40 strikeouts and 5 walks, going six innings of more in four of his five starts and getting standing ovations, mind you on the road, from St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves fans for his performance.

The on-the-surface numbers should already fly off the page, but when you consider that Skenes ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xERA, fastball velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate, he just continues to amaze me and surely all of you.

Skenes did have issues with command and spin rate in his final June start versus Atlanta, but despite that, he still managed a very solid outing. Skenes isn’t going anywhere, and although I expect the league to offer some pushback, which we’ve already seen from Yandy Diaz and Jared Kelenic, Skenes will continue to be a front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year Award and continue to improve as the season progresses, so get used to seeing him on this list.

Rowdy Tellez

From being boo’d by fans at PNC Park daily to a curtain call, June was a wild month for first baseman Rowdy Tellez.

Tellez, an offseason acquisition by the Pirates in free agency, was putrid in April and May, exiting May with a .198/.286/.219 slash line with a singular, yes, one home run up to May 31.

Shoutout to his best buddy and biggest fan Xander, because whatever he said to Rowdy Tellez in Toronto flipped a switch.

Tellez was stellar in June, posting a .333/.380/.545 slash line with 3 HR and 14 RBIs, even including five doubles and a stolen base in there as well.

You’d obviously still like to see more out of Tellez, seeing as he hit 30-plus home runs just two years ago, and the hope was that he could regain just some of that 2022 form, but the biggest question moving forward for Tellez is if he can stay consistent, and his career stats suggest he could.

Over the course of his career in the second half, Tellez has posted a .799 OPS with 36 HR and 99 RBIs in 683 plate appearances, so if he can tap into a second half surge, which he has done before, than the first base problem could be a lot less of a problem with a platoon of Tellez and Connor Joe, more on the latter later, manning the position.

Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft was elite in June folks, period.

Ashcraft, currently the Pirates fifth ranked prospect via MLB Pipeline, has risen up the ranks of the Pirates system relatively quickly, rising from Single-A Greensboro to Triple-A Indianapolis in a matter of a year.

Ashcraft was promoted from Double-A Altoona after one start with the Curve in June, and its no shock that he was promoted, as his 3.69 ERA with 63 strikeouts and 8 walks with Altoona this season suggested he was ready.

That meant June was spent mainly with Indianapolis, and Ashcraft has taken his opportunity and run with it in Indy, posting a 0.59 ERA with 10 strikeouts, 4 walks and a .193 opponent batting average in 15.1 innings with the Indians so far.

The 2018 second round selection has garnered respect to be in the conversation as a player we could see promoted to the Pirates later this season, especially if his strong performance continues throughout the duration of the season.

The question that will linger with Ashcraft, a question we have with Skenes and Jared Jones, is just how much of a workload he can be given, seeing as he’s currently at 69.0 IP this season, which is career high, and prior to 2024, he never reached more than 53.0 IP.

Keep an eye on Ashcraft, potentially in a starting role or even in a long-relief role later on this year, potentially September when rosters expand.

Charles McAdoo

I’m in a mood to discuss prospects apparently, because the system has been loaded with players producing at a high level, but it’s tough to find anyone in the Pirates minor league system that is performing as well as Charles McAdoo.

McAdoo, a 13th-round selection in the 2023 draft, burst onto the scene immediately with Low-A Bradenton last year, posting a .922 OPS in 96 at-bats last season. That production has carried over to 2024, and some, as McAdoo has a .990 OPS with 11 HRs and 55 RBIs and recently got promoted from Single-A Greensboro to Double-A Altoona on June 21.

With his season stats being so impressive, there was no doubt that June was impressive for McAdoo was well, who posted a .610 slugging with 3 HR and 15 RBIs in June. Upon his promotion to Altoona, McAdoo has hit 2 HR while slugging .680, so it’s a wait and see on how he’ll perform at a higher level.

McAdoo is a player who is likely out of the cards as far as debuting for Pittsburgh this season, but statistics and bat skills like the ones outlined above will garner attention, and if he continues to produce, his name will continue to be brought up as a call-up candidate in the coming years.

Who’s Down??

Connor Joe

Connor Joe was arguably the Pirates most consistent offensive player to begin the 2024 campaign, but once the calendar turned to June, his fortunes fell for worse as far as production is concerned.

Although Joe hit .286 in his past seven games, June overall was a rough month for the OF/1B, hitting just .169 and slugging .292, which makes the Tellez resurgence even more appreciated. Joe recorded only five extra base hits in the month of June as well, so the fall off, which was eventually expected, came in full force.

Despite the fall in production, Joe still ranks highly in many offensive statistics for the Pirates, due to the offense ranking low in basically every statistic across the board as a team.

For Joe, it’s all about driving the ball again, something he was doing very well early on in the season, You’d also like to see him get back to consistently hitting right-handed pitching, because if he doesn’t, he’ll likely be used exclusively versus lefties, something we saw quite a bit of this past month.

Yasmani Grandal

The catching position has been somewhat of a nightmare for the Pirates this year, due to the health and production of Henry Davis not living up to expectations and the absence of Endy Rodriguez due to off-season surgery.

Enter Yasmani Grandal, who was signed late in the off-season to supplement the position a bit, and although he’s had some good moments, it’s been mostly bad for Grandal, and I mean bad.

Grandal is currently hitting .179 in 112 plate appearances for Pittsburgh this season, including .163 in June. On top of that, the veteran catcher has one of the worst pop times by a catcher in MLB this season among many other defensive issues, so nothing is really going right for Grandal so far with his time in Pittsburgh.

At this point, and I mean this, Grandal sticking around is a matter of availability at this point, with Henry Davis still on a rehab assignment following a concussion and the Joey Bart just now returning from the IL in the Pirates on Sunday.

Am I suggesting Grandal will be gone by the time Davis returns, maybe, I truly don’t know the answer to that, but his production doesn’t point to any turnaround in the near future, and he’s among a group of catchers that have all had their struggles in 2024.

Ke’Bryan Hayes

I am sure all of you remember that absolutely stellar second half of 2023 for Ke’Bryan Hayes, and I am sure he does to, and I am also entirely sure he wishes he could rewind the clock and regain some of that second half form from last season.

Hayes, who has dealt with injuries once again this season, and will likely deal with them for the remainder of his career, did not have a great June, slashing .224/.258/.306 with 2 HR and 7 RBIs while totaling just three extra-base hits all month.

Hayes did have a strong series versus the Braves to end the month, collecting four hits across two games versus Atlanta before a rest day on Sunday, but between injuries, a lack of offensive production and a slight downtick in his defensive production, Hayes would like to find some consistency.

The Gold Glove winner is locked into a lengthy extension with Pittsburgh, so he’ll be around for a long time, and one would hope with the second half all but here, that Hayes can turn it up a notch and become a reliable bat in the middle of back-end of the batting order.

Bailey Falter

Bailey Falter was a player fans wanted nothing to do with to begin 2024, as many were ready to cast him off in favor of Jared Jones, Paul Skenes or a free agent signing(that never happened).

Falter quieted the critics in April and May, posting a 2.89 and 2.23 ERA in those months, but June saw some shades of what scares us about Falter, getting beat around when his stuff isn’t top notch, which it wasn’t the past 30 days.

The left-hander had a 5.63 ERA in 24.0 IP in June, which included three outings where he failed to get past the fourth inning. He also allowed a .323 opponent batting average, giving up seven or more hits in three of his five outings in June.

Falter has still exceeded expectations in 2024, becoming a solid back-end rotational piece, but for him to continue in that role in a positive way, he’ll have to get back to utilizing all of his pitches well, something we saw versus a very solid Braves lineup to conclude the month as Falter pitched five innings and allowed just one earned run.

If Falter cannot regain his April and May form though, expect things to get dicey on his standing in the rotation, especially with Martin Perez back from the IL and Quinn Priester and potentially Marco Gonzales back soon as well.

Michael A. Taylor

Another off-season addition, Michael A. Taylor was on a heater to begin the season, but since the first couple weeks of the season, Taylor has become a liability offensively.

Taylor, a former Gold Glove winner, is more than adequate defensively, we know that, but his offense has always lagged behind but at least been respectable, but it was no where near that in June.

Taylor slashed .147/.216/.206 in June, being shadowed out of the lineup quite a bit in favor of Edward Olivares and Jack Suwinski, being used mainly as a defensive substitute in center field as of late.

Was Taylor ever a signing we thought would change the fortunes of this team drastically? Of course not, but with the offensive production at the lowest its been all season, it’s hard to justify using Taylor for anything other than his defense at this point, unless a left-hander is on the mound of course.

We know who Taylor is as a player, and the expectation is that he won’t have a massive uptick in offensive production, but he has to offer something for the Pirates to continue to give him opportunities offensively.

Conclusion

As we enter July, things will likely change for the Pirates with trade deadline season on the horizon, and as the Pirates continue to remain in the Wild Card conversation entering the second half, you hope they start seeing improvements internally, especially from some of the players listed above.

You will no doubt see moves be made to this roster in the coming weeks, be that additions and subtractions, but nevertheless, the Pirates are a team that has the tools to stay in this thing, so we’ll see who I am writing about when this piece comes back around next month.

Say hello to July with open arms, because the boys of summer are taking center stage.

Starter Spotlight: Getting Schwellen-bach To Business

6-30-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Looking to avoid being swept to close out June, the Pirates will face Braves #3 prospect per MLB Pipline, Spencer Schwellenbach.

Schwellenbach was a 2nd round pick by the Braves in 2021 and was aggressively promoted through the system. After needing Tommy John surgery following being drafted, Schwellenbach made his pro debut in 2023 as he tossed 65 innings across A/A+ ball. He made 6 starts at A+ Rome to open 2024 before 2 games at AA and a BIG jump to join the Braves rotation amid rampant injuries.

Entering play today, Schwellenbach has a 1-3 record with a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 26.2 innings pitched with Atlanta. The peripherals indicate that he’s gotten a bit of bad luck as his xERA (3.71) and BABIP (.325) both suggest a regression to the mean lies ahead.

If he had pitched enough innings to qualify , Schwellenbach would have the top chase rate in MLB (40.2%) and barrel rate (1.3%) among all starting pitchers.

Looking at his arsenal, Schwellenbach has a near even mix between his high-90s fastball (26%), high-80s slider (21%), low-90s cutter (21%) and low-80s curve (18%) – with lesser-used splitter and sinker as well.

Opponents have the most success against Schwellenbach’s fastball with a .346 oBA and .615 oSLG but his cutter (.318/.591) and curve (.308/.385) have also produced poor results for the rookie righty.

His slider has been a plus pitch for him as it has resulted only one extra base hit so far this season with 8 strikeouts. His mid-80s splitter is used exclusively against left-handed hitters, running down and in on them and generating a 48.7% whiff rate.

Despite the poor overall numbers, Schwellenbach has fared much better at home (3.27 ERA) than away (6.89 ERA) in an albeit small sample size but it’s a war of attrition as he becomes much less effective the more times opponents see him.

Pirates will want to be patient at the plate and jump on the mistake pitches. The growing pains of MLB have hit Schwellenbach this year and Bucs bats need to continue that trend. Stay in the zone, avoid chasing junk and get out of Atlanta with a salvaged series.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Pirates Trade Targets: A Study of What’s Really Out There Right Now

6-29-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I fully understand why fans and some journalists are frustrated and want additions made right now. As I’ve written before, that’s up to you. If you want to be mad that the Pirates aren’t making deals right now and choose to not accept any of the reasons or realities of the league, I can’t blame you. I can’t agree either, but I’m not here to strongarm you into believing something you simply won’t.

That said, I also don’t blame President’s for the economy the day after the inauguration, so maybe I’m weird.

Either way, there will be players available, some will come with term, some will be pure rentals, for this exercise, I’m going to only look at teams currently below the Pirates in the standings. I find this more productive than predicting who or who won’t fall back, simply because at some point not all that far from now, the teams will have to stop guessing about where teams might wind up too, and decide what they are this year.

To do this, lets break these guys into 3 categories. Pure Rental, Rental Plus, and finally Acquisition with Term. I’ll explain them as we go and in no way am I trying to develop an all encompassing list, just some players I think could help. I also think I owe you some kind of “price” for each, but honestly, I don’t care to start guessing which prospects would go for who so instead I’ll do it this way, there will be 3 price ratings, $, $$, $$$. These prices are relative to the categories. In other words, a $ in Rental, won’t be the same cost as a $ under Acquisition with Term.

If it doesn’t make sense yet, it will, keep going.

Acquisition with Term

This is pretty simple, the Pirates get a guy and own control of the player beyond 2025 should they want to.

Brenton Doyle – CF – ($) – Brenton is actually very similar to Connor Joe in profile, maybe with a little more power. His splits aren’t bad, he plays a well above average CF and he has two more years on entry level contracts before he even hits free agency. The bugaboo, he’s already 26. That’s not a big deal like he was in AAA at this age, but much like Joe, he’ll be into his early 30’s before Free Agency comes a callin’. Potential solution at a position of need for years to come. Also, a rare right handed hitter who actually hits right handed pitching better than lefty.

Ryan McMahon – 3B – ($$) – Ryan has an affordable contract signed through his age 32 season in 2027. He is a really good 3B, but he can play 1B too. Ryan to me solves first base, or potentially upgrades 3B when Hayes is injured, or affords the team to rest Hayes more to hopefully get better out of him when he does play. He can handle 2B as well so the options are there to ensure the bat stays in the lineup. He’s got power, but the caveat that he plays in Colorado should lower expectations about his power production a bit, and finally, the Rockies are already on record that they don’t want to move him. This is just a good ball player who’s versatility affords your team flexibility in future free agency acquisitions because he isn’t locked into a position.

Luis Robert Jr. – CF – ($$) – This is a great player. Lets make no bones about that, his talent is not in question. His health on the other hand is very much so front and center. Whatever team would deal for him would get 1 more very reasonably signed year and then 2 club options for 20 million per over the last two years of his deal. If the club would choose to cut ties after 2025, it’s a 4 million dollar buyout, and if they were to want out after 2026 it reduces to 2 million. Reasonable for the talent, not for the actual playing time. A healthy Robert in 2023 hit 38 homeruns, problem is he’s in his 5th year and has slightly over 1,600 at bats, for perspective, that’s roughly 600 more than Jack Suwinski who debuted in 2022, Robert debuted in 2020. Injury is concern number one. He won’t hit for average but the OPS will be where you want it. Again, when healthy, great player, and the Sox will want paid as though that’s a given.

Andrew Vaughn – 1B/OF – ($) – Andrew isn’t a perfect solution for first base, but he hits for power and I can’t deny he’d be an upgrade in many respects over there. Andrew comes with 2 more years of arbitration and this year he wound up getting 3.25 million. Even coming off a down year in 2025 he’d surely get an increase. If nothing else, it’d be pretty easy to enter free agency this Winter believing you don’t need to shop for first basemen with power. Might be a worthy shot at a controllable answer, might also just frustrate this fan base as much as he has his own by being good but not good enough.

A.J. Puk – LRP/RP – ($) – The Marlins tried Puk in the rotation, partially by plan, partially by necessity due to injury, and it’s not been a very good season in general for the lefty. Here’s the thing, I don’t 100% see this as a deal that has to help in 2024. I mean, I’d want it to of course, but I’d be acquiring Puk because his last two seasons out of the pen were legitimately good, with excellent strikeout to walk numbers and he has 2 more years of arbitration the first of which almost promises to stay under 3 million. Ryan Borucki will be a free agent after 2024, and Puk can slot right into that role for a couple seasons. The Pirates are poised to lose their only two lefty relievers of consequence after this year, a deal like this could help that, and if you believe in Marin’s work with lefties, maybe this year too. All around talent poach here for me. Buy low, and think beyond 2024 here.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. – CF/2B/SS – ($$) – Here’s the thing, Jazz to me is a player everyone and their mother says is good, and for the life of me I can’t see it. He hasn’t been healthy for most of his career, he does have a ton of power, and somehow it doesn’t translate into a good OPS number. Speed for days, lots of position flexibility, but again, man, I just know they’re going to want a “star” return, and I simply can’t force myself to see him as one. 381 games and he’s been in the league since 2020. 63 homeruns in 1520 at bats isn’t nothing, again, I don’t know, maybe it’s just me, but if I’m spending big for a star I have control of for a while, I’d rather feel 100% he is one.

Pure Rental

This year is it, you get the remainder of 2024 and then they’re on the Free Agent market in 2025.

Charlie Blackmon – OF – ($) – Charlie is 38 years old, it’s the end of the road for the longtime Rockies property. He isn’t what he was, but he still swings a left handed stick that is sure to drop a plus .700 OPS, still has a little pop, especially for doubles, but his swing is a good fit for the Clemente Wall too. Instant offensive upgrade in the outfield even if you can’t hope to play him 5-6 days a week, also a good left handed alternative at DH when you’d like to rest Andrew McCutchen.

Elias Diaz – C – ($) – The Pirates have a lot of options at catcher, but it’s hard for me to picture a playoff team featuring any of the 4 they have. If Henry Davis doesn’t catch on and I mean in the next couple weeks, I’d consider it at least and if you’re going to, might as well get one who’s hitting over .300. Offensive and defensive upgrade in one player, even if it means Ben Cherington has to admit he picked the wrong one to keep way back when, not that I disagreed in any way at the time.

Tanner Scott – CP – ($) – This is a classic good player on a bad team. There’s nothing beyond this year on this deal, but he’s another power lefty back end of the bullpen type pitcher who would give the Pirates a big leg up on teams that can’t put a dent in their starters. I do think he’ll cost a bit more than most pure rentals, closers almost always seem to and it’s typically not a price a team that already has a couple options to do the job like to spend, but turning a strength into a fortress is rarely dumb for a team looking to make a move. Some might see this as a luxury acquisition, but again, overdoing it on a position can be the difference that helps you survive an injury or simply gives you more matchup options depending on the competition. Tell me Chapman, Holderman, Bednar and Scott wouldn’t be intimidating as hell when you’re down 2-0 in the 5th against Skenes.

Tommy Pham – OF/DH – ($) – It’s become a yearly tradition, someone seemingly begrudgingly signs Tommy Pham, he hits like one of their best hitters and the team for whatever reason is more than happy to move him at the deadline. Truth be told, there hasn’t been a room he was popular in, but man, the dude can hit and has a penchant for the moment too. An upgrade for the bench if nothing else, potential ready made fill in for injury to an outfielder.

Rental Plus

The player has one more year beyond the conclusion of 2024, these are rather common as they tend to get more in return than pure rentals and most teams in position to shed talent aren’t a year away from changing their fortunes enough to keep a player like this.

Eloy Jimenez– LF/DH – ($) – Eloy has left quite a bit to be desired in 2024 but every other year, he’s delivered as far as OPS goes. Not the best fielder, he’s not an easy fit on a team with a dedicated DH already who’s bat you want in the lineup. Technically, he comes with two more years of contractual control, 2 club options for 16.5 million and 18.5 million respectively, each with a 3 million dollar buyout, but a buyout that doesn’t roll over. In other words, if they exercised the first option, it’s not 6 million, it’s just 3 and the second year goes away, this is a different structure than say, Luis Robert Jr. If you’re just looking for bats and not being picky about the position, he might fill the bill, but his control will cost more than a typical rental.

Michael Kopech – RP – ($) – Michael has a big arm, gets a lot of strikeouts, problem is, he also lead the league in walks last year. He has one more year of arbitration, and the Pirates have done well with turning strikeout stuff that’s a little wild into something worth having, but the Sox have been trying that with Michael for years now and in a pennant race isn’t typically when you want to do things like that. Still, he might be a nice acquisition, he’s got experience in important games. I’d also say, this walk issue wasn’t always what it’s become, so there is potentially an unlock a team could find to make him effective as he was on his entry level deal.

Josh Bell – 1B/DH – ($$) – I love Josh Bell the person, I’m really not a big fan as a player. Very streaky, does have power, goes into deep dark holes offensively and I’ve always hated what that did to the lineup. That said, the Marlins already know dealing him will require picking up most of his 16 million dollars owed and I’d imagine there is play in that idea depending on the strength of prospects they expect to be returned. Paying his contract is essentially buying prospects. Again, trying to take my personal view of the player off the table, I can’t argue he’d probably up their overall offensive attack.

Conclusion

Are there more I could choose from? Oh for sure. Hell, I only really looked at the Marlins, Rockies and White Sox, there are certainly other teams you can look at, even now, but the exercise is really more about finding players I feel could be had as early as this week and that list of teams is just not as long as folks want it to be at the moment.

I’d much rather look at the players, really see if I think they fit as they become available than to toss out pretend packages with shock value names attached from the Pirates prospect pool.

Don’t worry about the packages as much as what do they potentially fix and for how long do they potentially fix it.

And for god’s sake, please don’t immediately compare whatever they do to Chris Archer. If the Pirates had a prospect pool 1/3 as deep as they do now in 2018, they might have survived it. Certainly wouldn’t have just swung and missed with no backup plan. I don’t think personally there is a “sell the farm” player that’s going to come available anyway, none of the guys on this list are that to me anyway. In fact, I’d probably pay more for Ryan McMahon than anyone else on this list, so take from that what you will.

Either way, I think this is a good snapshot of what “right now” looks like.

Starter Spotlight: Max Effort Versus Fried

6-29-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After getting trounced by Charlie Morton in last night’s game, the Pirates will try to rebound against a pitcher who is having an even better season: Max Fried.

Fried currently sports a 7-3 record with a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 90 innings pitched this season with 80 strikeouts and 27 walks.

Outside of his first two starts this year where he allowed 10 earned runs off 12 hits and 4 walks over just 5 innings, Fried has been quietly among the best in MLB. Since April 12, only Ranger Suarez (1.88) and Gavin Stone (2.11) have posted better ERA among qualified starters than Fried’s 2.12 in that time.

The Braves southpaw doesn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts but gets weak contacts and ground balls at an elite level. His average exit velocity (85.3) is best among qualified starters while his ground ball (60.7%) and barrel rate (4.5%) are each 4th best in their respective categories.

The Braves defense enters play today with the least amount of errors (31) in MLB, providing critical importance for a pitch-to-contact arm like Fried.

Fried struggled in his last start against the Pirates where he allowed 4 runs off 6 hits so the Bucs will want to find a way to repeat that success.

His arsenal consists of a mid-90s fastball, mid-70s curve, low-90s sinker and mid-80s changeup. He sprinkles in a slider, cutter and sweeper as well with limited use.

Fried works his 4-seam high and away against right-handed hitters while naturally dropping the curve low in the zone. He also keeps the sinker and changeup low but work both pitches inside to avoid barrels and produce weak grounders.

His 4-seam has technically been the most hittable but all of his main offerings have a low average launch angle so Pirates bats will need to be crafty today, working counts and trying to find holes in the infield if they aren’t able to get much to drive.

Based on the numbers, the Pirates would be best served by leaning on some weird reverse splits as LHH are posting a batting average more than 200 points higher than RHH with nearly double the OPS (.837 vs .431).

It’s a small sample size buoyed by extremes in BABIP as Fried’s career line against hitters from both sides of the plate have been about even but something to keep in mind entering play today.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Old Man Morton

As the Bucs look to build on their recent winning ways, they will have to spar with a former ally in Charlie Morton – who is still providing production even at age 40, entering play tonight with a 4-4 record and 4.20 ERA in 79.1 innings.

The 2019 3rd-place finisher in AL Cy Young voting is facing the Buccos for only the second time in his 17-year MLB career, 7 of which were playing with the Pirates. In his only other start, Morton allowed 4 runs on 5 hits with 1 walk and 12 strikeouts in 6 innings of work.

Ground Chuck still relies heavily on his low-80s curveball and mid-90s 4-seam fastball combo, which comprise nearly 70% of his pitches thrown. It adds in occasional mid-80s changeup, high-80s cutter and a low-90s sinker as well but primarily works his main two offerings low in the zone.

The curve continues to be his most effective pitch as opponents are hitting just .183 against it while whiffing 34.3% of the time. In contrast, his 4-seamer has never been more hittable with opponents hitting .321 and slugging a whopping .617 against the offering.

Five of his seven home runs have come against the fastball while 50 of his 80 strikeouts have resulted from his curve. There’s a pretty clear pitch that Pirates batters need to look for today.

The curve is very loopy and should be easy enough for hitters to pick up on but, if he’s able to consistently locate it for strikes, it won’t matter much what they do. Walks have been an issue for Morton in the past and he currently has a 10.5% rate on the season compared to a 24.1% K rate – his lowest mark since leaving Pittsburgh.

Hitters need to hunt heat and lay off the curve. Morton has gone 5 or more innings in all but one outing this season despite opponents doing most of the damage first time through the order (5.00 ERA compared to 3.48 and 3.86 the next two times through).

Attack early on heat and get to the veteran righty as well as this weary Braves team which plays its 4th game in 3 cities in 3 days tonight.

Let’s Go Bucs!