Series Preview: Diamondbacks (58-51) at Pirates (55-53)

8-1-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

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8/2
Pirates – Martín Pérez (L) 1-3, 57.1 IP, 4.71 ERA, 46 Ks/19 walks, 1.55 WHIP
Braves – Charlie Morton (R) 4-4, 79.1 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks/35 walks, 1.30 WHIP

8/3
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) 4-0, 46.1 IP, 2.14 ERA, 61 Ks/8 walks, 0.99 WHIP
Braves – Max Fried (L) 7-3, 90 IP, 3.00 ERA, 80 Ks/27 walks, 1.07 WHIP

8/4
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) 3-6, 83.1 IP, 4.00 ERA my, 54 Ks/22 walks, 1.14 WHIP
Braves – Spencer Schwellenbach (R) 1-3, 26.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 25 Ks/7 walks, 1.28 WHIP

Pirates:
Bryan Reynolds: He’s got to be the name here until he gives us reason not to. Reynolds rides into this weekend on an MLB-beat 23-game hit streak, during which he has posted a .351/.408/.638 slash line with 6 home runs, 7 doubles, 15 runs and 16 RBIs.

Braves:
Jarred Kelenic

Pirates:
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Braves:
Ozzie Albies

Key Injuries

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Things to Look For

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Mid-Season Review

6-27-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following their win on Wednesday, the Pirates are just shy of the halfway mark of the season – having eclipsed 80 of the 162 game slate and currently sit with a 39-41 record.

As of this morning, their .488 winning percentage sits them at 9th in the National League and 2.5 games back of the final wild card. This is tied for the best start to the year since the 2015 season when the Pirates last made the playoffs.

Records through 80 games by season (since 2011)

Expectations entering this season were elevated. General Manager Ben Cherington repeatedly stated during PiratesFest that the team was expecting to compete this year. Heck, Derek Shelton tossed out winning the division as being on the table. Are they still pacing to reach the goal of Buctober baseball on the North Shore once more? Let’s break it down:

First, let’s start with the positives. This rotation has unexpectedly become among the best in baseball. Sure, we all hoped that Mitch Keller would bounce back to his 2023 pre-All Star Break form (3.31 ERA in 117 innings) rather than his second half slump stats (5.59 ERA in 77.1 innings).

But what he and the rest of this starting group has done has been wholly unprecedented as they’ve combined for a 3.55 ERA over 436.2 innings pitched – good for 7th best in MLB and 3rd in NL behind just the Phillies and Dodgers.

Jared Jones was not expected to break camp with the club. Bailey Falter was widely derided for still being in camp during Spring Training, much less being in play for the rotation. Paul Skenes is still less than a year removed from being drafted 1-1 overall. And yet, each of these pitchers have been pivotal in steering the ship for this squad through injuries and inconsistency.

Skenes, Jones and Keller are among the best trio of starting pitchers in all of MLB. If the team can make playoffs, these three could give them a chance to win any game – so long as Jones and Skenes aren’t shutdown before they get that chance.

Now for the bad news: Even with the solid series against Cincinnati where the offense posted 5+ runs and 10+ hits in each game, the offense has been underperforming.

In games where they have scored 3+ runs, they have won 34 of 52 (.654 winning percentage) but that means they have 2 or less runs in 28 games, posting a 5-23 record in those instances – a .179 winning percentage.

Offense is down across the board, granted, but the Pirates have been at or near the bottom in most every statistical category. And they have 7 hitters who have 60+ plate appearances and posted under 70 wRC+ and sub-.600 OPS.

Another short-coming for this squad has come from the bullpen as this team has already blown the lead 20 times this year. Only the Colorado bullpen has surrendered the lead as many times (also 20) and only the Rockies (5.78) and the Angels (5.04) have a worse reliever ERA than the Pirates (4.76).

Granted, there were some early season struggles by David Bednar (5.17 ERA in 31.1 innings) and Carmen Mlodzinski (4.50 in 18) but some other relievers have provided negative net value out of the pen with only Colin Holderman (0.7) and Hunter Stratton (0.6) providing more than 0.2 fWAR in the first half of the season.

Since June 1, there has been more consistency with the back-end arms as 6 relievers have a 3.00 ERA or lower in that stretch.

Clearly, the team has room for improvement but they’ve won 12 of their last 21 games and 5 of their last 7 series played. Additionally, they are winning close matches (14-12 in 1-run games) and extra inning affairs (5-4).

The team is trending in the right direction and maybe, just maybe, the next 82 games will lead to Buctober baseball once more.

Let’s Go Bucs!

The Pirates Continue to Win Series, Management Continues to Prepare Fans to be Underwhelmed

6-26-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates have won 5 of their last 7 series.

You can do that and still not have a winning record, it’s just real hard to do.

On June 1st, the Pirates were 27-31 and had just beaten the Blue Jays 8-1 and they’d go on to lose the series the next day to drop 5 games under .500. It was a real set back for the club, just starting to show some signs of climbing out of a month long funk at the dish.

Since that point, they took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers, 2 of 3 from the Twins, lost 2 of 3 to the Cardinals. On to the Rockies where they took 2 of 3, the Reds went down the same way. Tampa took 2 of 3 and just yesterday the Reds surrendered another series losing 2 of 3 to our Pirates.

No sweeps in either direction. An underwhelming record of 10-8 but a net positive all the same. The kind of baseball that over time gets you up and over .500 at some point, but more likely helps maintain where water finds its level. It also doesn’t insulate you should your team ever have a losing streak, there’s very little fat to help absorb the shock.

Thing is, you have to do it long enough, and you really can’t afford slip ups.

It’s to the Pirates credit, they’ve played good baseball this month and they’ve done it with some fairly stark deficiencies offensively.

This is exactly what Ben Cherington meant when he put out what many of you have affectionately termed word salad. It was for sure that, but it’s also become almost a running gag for me.

The Pirates tell the truth, they just do it in the wrong way, at the wrong time.

Let me explain what I mean.

Did you ever have someone at work have a grandparent die and they were like 98 or something crazy like that? Inevitably, in an effort to say something, you’ll hear co-workers say things like “Well, they had a full life”, or “Hey, hard to complain about 98 years”. You know what I mean? They’re nice things to say, and entirely true, but maybe not something the grieving party is ready to hear.

The Pirates do this stuff all the time and the only reason I point it out is because if they want to, they have an entirely true and positive story to tell, and I just did it.

The arrow is pointed up, and they’ve pulled it off much like the end of last year with an incomplete pitching staff and a team not hitting consistently enough. They’ve actually gotten themselves to 2 games clear of the basement of the division, partially by beating the Reds themselves. They trail the Cards who they get another crack at soon because they dropped one to them.

It’s a boring story, but it is the story fans will and should accept.

Instead, our Pirates reps in my mind always want to talk about why something is hard as opposed to how they intend to make it better.

I hear Derek Shelton on the Fan talking about how offense is down all over the league by way of defending Andy Haines for the Pirates hitting woes. It’s not untrue, hitting is down the league over, it’s also not something that in my mind a coach needs to be talking about. Not in this context anyway.

Talk to your own team. Who you expect to get better and how you’re going about it. What you plan to do if you ultimately can’t get the improvements you’re looking for?

Things like that. Be real about what’s up, you don’t have to tell me it’s hard, we all know that, I just don’t need to hear that things are tough all over. You’re my manager, my GM, my Team President, I want to hear solutions and methods to achieve them, not laying track in the middle of June for how tough it’ll be to acquire what you need at the deadline because everyone else will want it too. That sounds a lot more like what I expect from the Pirates in Free agency, not the trade deadline.

Yes Ben, teams in general like to acquire good players at the deadline if they can, and those good players cost a lot in prospect capital and more bidders can make that price go up even more. This is always the case, no matter what your team needs. Good hitters, good pitchers, well, there are always more shoppers than product.

Honestly, that’s his problem, not mine.

Again, it’s true, it’s just not a welcome message. I want to hear how he plans to attack it. Or that he plans to attack it. What I hear sounds more like trying to soften the blow for me over your eventual underwhelming attempt to get something done.

The Pirates have a good story to tell, and it doesn’t require blaming any league wide issue, or anything more than a slight improvement in their standings league wide. But it is improvement.

I want the Pirates to improve and add and keep getting better, and words are just that, words. That said, I’m tired of them trying to soft land the dismount even as they haven’t really leapt yet.

The team is undermanned, and yet, they’re slowly but surely climbing and maintaining their claim to a post season berth. They need help, and they’re proving it might be a worthy investment.

Talk about that. Talk about why you want to add to this group. Not why it’s hard to do it.

Talk about what is and isn’t working, not about how hard you work at the task.

There’s a time for all that other stuff. After you win, you can tell me how hard something was, or how hard you worked on some aspect. Until then, I’d like them trained on putting their foot on the gas and making an effort.

Again, there’s a story to tell, it’s positive, if still a little dry, take adding some spice to the story as a challenge and reward this team for showing you they have some fight in them. Let’s start hearing some from management.

Starter Spotlight: Looking To Kick Some Ashcraft

6-26-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Final game in this Reds series will see Luis Ortiz receive his first regular start of the season and his opponent Graham Ashcraft returns to toe the rubber for Cincinnati.

Ashcraft is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.89 and 18 strikeouts to 5 walks in 3 career appearances versus the Pirates but hasn’t posted as compelling stats against other opponents – especially in 2024.

Following some early season struggles which saw him post a 5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 17.5% K rate, Ashcraft was sent down to Triple-A Louisville, where he posted a 3.00 ERA in 10 innings over 2 starts there.

Rotation injuries have forced Cincinnati’s hand in recalling Ashcraft, who has particularly struggled at home this season with a career 5.56 ERA pitching in the unfriendly confines of Great American Ball Park.

He works mostly with a 3-pitch mix: mid-90s cutter, high-80s slider and mid-90s sinker. He also tosses an infrequent changeup in the low-90 but mostly relies on the cutter-slider-sinker repertoire.

Ashcraft works the cutter middle-middle and uses it indiscriminately against both lefties and righties. His slider runs in versus righties and works the sinker away in those same instances, preferring the cutter-heavy approach against LHHs. In his 12 starts this season, that strategy has proven ineffective.

Against the cutter, opponents are hitting .323 and slugging .515 while the sinker has been similarly hit well at a .314 clip and .490 slugging. On the other hand, he’s generated solid results with the slider as his hard stuff has produced diminished success.

Looking at today’s game, Pirates hitters will need to key-in on heat and lay off the breaking stuff. Ashcraft went 6 innings of 1 run ball against the Royals AAA club last Friday but he’s back in the big leagues now and Bucco bats should welcome him accordingly.

Lefties have been hitting him well with an .813 OPS but righties have done damage here in GABP with an .877 OPS against Ashcraft when he’s pitching at home.

The team has found its rhythm on offense with 10+ hits and 5+ runs in each of the last two games. Keep the foot on the gas and head out of town on a strong note.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Hunting Heat With Greene

6-25-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Another day, another repeated Reds matchup as Pirates send out Mitch Keller to once again face off against Cincinnati flamethrower in Hunter Greene.

Last week, Greene tossed 6.1 scoreless innings of 2-hit ball against the Bucs with zero walks and 9 strikeouts over his 106 pitches thrown. It was one of Greene’s most dominant performances to date and one the Pirates hope he does not repeat tonight.

Greene relied heavily on his fastball/slider combo in that last start, making up 85 of his total pitches thrown and generating 16 of his 17 whiffs. Opponents have an expected batting average of under .200 for both offerings so it’s a tall task for these struggling bats to pick it up against Greene today.

He’s likely going to work the heater up in the zone and drop the slider down and away from right-handed hitters or in on lefties.

Patience at the plate is key. Work counts and try to get on base via walk as only 8 qualified starters have a worse mark than Greene’s 10.1% walk rate. If he goes 6+, you’re going to be in trouble.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Déjà vu All Over Again? Let’s Try it with Scoring This Time!

6-24-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Last week I was sitting here writing about how excited I was to get eyes on the last of the Pirates Division foes, the Reds. The Pirates won that low scoring series 2-1 and it’s literally the reason they find themselves a game up on them right now.

Much has happened in the week since though. Both offenses have stayed dormant, both have suffered more injuries, both have players coming back off the IL too.

Things never happen as fast as you want in baseball, but if you want to start scratching out some separation in this division, your best bet is always head to head. Don’t miss this one and try to force their ball park to reawaken the sticks, it hasn’t worked for the Reds.

Lets go!

1. No Rentals?

As we near the end of June, even the “let’s wait” crowd starts to feel the urgency to make deals. The standings being this bunched is going to force some teams to trust the base they’ve built and believe additions can at least get them into the dance. Others will recognize they’re a fraud and reluctantly sell.

That’s why in a way, it makes a ton of sense to try to acquire players that won’t be right back out the door in December. If you’re unsure of the bet you’re placing, it makes sense to give yourself more ways to win. If you can deal for a solution that helps for the next couple years too, even if you were wrong about 2024 and fall short, you could still have done something important for making your upcoming offseason easier, or given yourself more options for the direction you could take.

That said, I wouldn’t shut myself off as a fan to rentals entirely as I’m starting to see float around on social media.

There are some reasons that a rental might make a ton of sense.

The first and most obvious, you can’t really control what’s available and believe me, the list of rental options will dwarf the list of longer term solutions. Closing yourself off to the bigger pool of talent because it’s not exactly the way you want to go is at the very least short sighted.

If you really think your team is a “super star” away, you have a much better shot of landing that in a trade as a rental than you do with term. Think about it, the reason a team is moving a talent like that is because they know it will be difficult to retain them if they even want to try. Let’s say a guy like Pete Alonso, he’s a Boras client, look, the Pirates aren’t signing this guy in free agency. You can do all your “they could” or “they should” stuff, but the fact is, they won’t, and they don’t like Player Only options, a Boras commonality at this point when he stomps his feet because he didn’t get is initial contract estimate.

They could have him for one stretch run though.

In this scenario, the Pirates are taking on salary (roughly 10 million), and probably giving up a good potential player too. Now, I can’t see giving up something crazy for 3 months of a guy like this, and a team that has aspirations to potentially get a leg up on extending him probably hasn’t met Boras and his Free Agency or bust philosophy. Point is, if there’s a bidding war, we aren’t talking apples to oranges.

The Mets may want to retain him via free agency, and dealing him could make that harder potentially, but they should be more than happy to shed salary considering what they’re paying per win as we speak.

Hell, they might even take Rowdy back just to offset it a bit for ya.

Things like this are out there, and no, they aren’t the long term. They help this year, maybe, these things have a tendency to not actually add what you hoped they would. If you sell the Mets a shot at a really good player 2-3 years down the road, provided they do the work and the scouting is right in exchange for 2-3 months of their power hitting, weirdo first baseman and it helps get you in the Wild Card, it’s a win, even if you lose a star debuting in 2026.

Look for longer term stuff by all means, if it’s out there and it really addresses a hole, do it. If not, rentals don’t kill the build or whatever, they just equate to admitting some of the kids aren’t as ready as they need to be for a run. You can upgrade a spot where you’re kinda sputtering with a kid and jump right back to the kid in 2025.

Think on that a bit and see if it might open up some positions you previously had scratched off the list. Rentals has become a dirty word, but it’s hardly a bad thing.

Who among us doesn’t have fond memories of Marlon Byrd, or J.A. Happ?

I’d say the important thing here is, with this congested a field, I don’t think you can afford to shut off any avenue.

2. Without Bednar

The Pirates have had their share of injuries, but David Bednar has the potential to be significant. I don’t mean the length of his injury, I just mean now is a terrible time to be short handed on what had become a strength.

The Pirates hopefully caught this early, that would be my assumption since it’s retroactive to the 20th, but no matter, they’ll have to play without him for the time being, so, how?

I know Derek Shelton seemed to indicate the closer could be either Colin Holderman or Aroldis Chapman, but the truth is, I bet he goes with Chapman most of the time. He is what he is, and I get it, that’s shaky based on recent history, but he’ll go into the hall as a closer for a reason.

In fact, this situation is exactly why he was signed.

So they’re short a man for that 7-8-9 setup and if I had to take a stab at who jumps in to fill in, I’d go with Carmen Mlodzinski. He started slow after his scare with an arm injury this Spring, in fact I still don’t 100% understand what the team saw when they decided to call him up, but in his last 7 he’s got a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings, with a 1.16 WHIP. Looks much more like the pitcher we thought we had in 2023.

The Pirates need David Bednar to get healthy, but more than that, they need to see guys like Carmen and Kyle Nicolas start to prove themselves worthy of being counted on moving forward.

They also need Ryan Borucki to continue to progress and work his way back.

This stretch is an opportunity for some guys, if they thrive, this bullpen starts to look like a real unit as they get healthy. If they falter, the Pirates may need to fortify the pen in a big way to do anything this year.

3. Why Do They Always Talk About Exit Velocity!!?!?!???

For some fans, talking about the exit velocity after an out is classic excuse making. It’s akin to trying to pretend an out wasn’t all that big a deal or even like it’s something to celebrate.

I get the frustration, but if you feel this way, I assure you, for the most part, things like this are more about pointing at the predictive nature of the stat than they are to excuse away the lack of production.

In fact, Exit Velocity coupled with Launch Angle together are what make up the Hit Probability stat. In other words, if your exit velocity is X at Y Launch Angle, it should be a hit Z amount of the time. The actual “Z” in that equation changes as the actual results the league experiences change. In other words if a lower launch angle starts getting better numbers, the predictive stat will adapt. Even as I type this, I can picture 50% of your eyes glazing over, I’m sorry.

That’s it really, it’s just a predictive stat, and more accurately, part of a predictive stat. The reason they do something like this on the broadcast is, well, you’re right, to try to comfort you in part.

Nick Gonzales has struggled to get results lately, and they’ll point out his exit velocity by way of showing you it’s not because he’s not “hitting”, even while he’s not “hitting” ya dig?

If you really dumb it down, it’s no different than showing you a replay of Siri robbing a hit with an incredible play. Or Nolan Arenado diving 3 feet into foul territory to rob someone a double down the line.

You’ll acknowledge a guy was robbed when he drills a ball into the gap and someone makes an incredible play to steal a hit, but you’re less likely to in any way acknowledge it if it were right at someone.

One thing Exit Velocity certainly isn’t, it’s not something to get mad about. If anything it would be like the broadcast showing the Sprint Speed for a fielder on a failed diving catch. I suppose if I look at it that way I can understand how strange it is to mention anything positive surrounding what on it’s face is a failure.

Now, all that said, exit velocity doesn’t smooth over every bad thing. It doesn’t matter that Oneil Cruz is reaching otherworldly average exit velocities if it doesn’t happen often because he doesn’t make contact enough, and it doesn’t matter if for some reason he’s getting unlucky in relation to others with similar peripherals.

Modern baseball isn’t going to exactly slow down on implementing Statcast data, so if I’m you, I take some time to try to understand them at least a little, as opposed to assuming every new one mentioned is some sort of marketing plan. Of course everything done on TV is in some way meant to entertain you, but if you don’t like the mayo on your sandwich, just scrape it off and eat the damn thing.

4. The Best Lineup?

This team’s definition of “Best Lineup” they can put out there is different all the time, just like it is for every team. The Pirates simply have to find a way to break up the 3-4 spots of next to nothing in their lineup.

I understand guys need rest, but some nights it’s hard to imagine getting anything from almost half the lineup.

Eventually this will be why they make deals, but in the meantime, I wanted to see if I could put together something using all the spare parts this team has to cobble together something that doesn’t have a black hole somewhere in the lineup. I’ll go through it, then I’ll try to explain it.

Andrew McCutchen DH
Bryan Reynolds CF
Oneil Cruz SS
Nick Gonzales 2B
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Connor Joe RF
Edward Olivares LF
Jason Delay C

Now, lets look through what I’ve done here.

First big change is I’ve moved Bryan Reynolds back to CF, and I’ve done this specifically to address getting Michael Taylor and Jack Suwinski out of my lineup. As long as one of them has to be in center, part of my lineup has to have a hole I have to work around. Since I have no choice at catcher right now, that makes 2 of 9. The only way to improve that is to change who plays the position. Yes, it’ll hurt defensively, even if he has been incredible defensively this year, but thems the breaks.

This lineup gives me a better shot at scoring and doesn’t have any spans of despair. It also just about completely takes away their ability to platoon much, if at all. That’s a detriment for Olivares and Joe to a degree, but honestly I could say that for Hayes too at this point right? It also puts Tellez back in play against lefties again. The team has only allowed him to have 19 ABs against them this season, so I’d imagine that’s not what they’d prefer. Perhaps there simply has to be a place for Joe at first base and Jack Suwinski in the outfield.

The team will get Ji Hwan Bae back and unless Jack’s hard contact yesterday quickly becomes balls leaving the park, I’d bet they’ll make a swap. Even so, I’d like to see them consider being even more flexible with Reynolds, Tellez, and Joe to start trying to limit the number of futile at bats.

Now why not just cut guys I’m talking about benching? I mean, this is optimal, not every night, I just wanted to see if it were even possible to put something together that didn’t make me feel I could get a sandwich when I see a set of 3 on the coming up graphic.

No wonder we act mad about the lineup just about every night, there’s like nothing short of making some counterintuitive choices and changing positions that I could think of to avoid it.

You start jumping through hoops like this, you must add.

    5. Third Base

    Ke’Bryan Hayes simply isn’t the same player when his back isn’t right, and so far in his relatively short career, his back isn’t right often enough. He’s probably the best defensive third baseman I’ve seen in a Pirates uniform, but he needs to be 100% himself or it just isn’t enough, often enough.

    I say this while acknowledging he’s not even close to the most important issue going on right now. I’m not saying this pretending 3B needs to be something they actively hunt for at the deadline or even in the offseason, but I do think as we watch prospects progress through the system playing third base, we should probably stop acting like they’re permanently blocked.

    If he can replicate what he did in 2023 for the rest of his contract, he’s still a bargain, he’s also not played more than 136 games in a season, so one way or another, the team is going to need another solid third baseman.

    There’s still hope that Jared Triolo can fill that role, Jack Brannigan is coming along, Nick Gonzales can handle it and maybe even Malcom Nunez will make a go of it at some point, but the thing is, we need to stop pretending Ke’Bryan is a player that is going to be capable of giving you his best if he’s playing 5-6 times a week.

    I’m not sure the team is ready to say that, or admit that, but it sure looks that way to me. Thing is, if he didn’t carry it with him to the plate where he showcases his physical inability to turn on a ball the way he needs to periodically, you could just ask or tell him to push through it. It effects his performance though, drastically.

    He’s certainly showing that aside from stretches here and there, he’s probably not a top of the order type. The manager trusts him, and I’m in no way trying to say he’s a bad player, I still think he’s plenty worth his contract, but I think there is a need to be honest when you’re using your talent. You may have signed an everyday starter, but you paid him what an MLB bench player makes, maybe embrace he can’t play a full on starter’s workload and hope you get maximum performance out of him more often when he plays. I’d take the best of what Ke’ has to offer 4 or 5 days a week over mediocre Ke’, nursing his back, trying to be careful about over stretching or whatever it is we see on a near nightly basis.

    Sometimes that’s how things work. It’s no different than signing someone you think might be a platoon player, and guess what, he gets paid just like that too. Don’t look now, I’ll do it for you, but he kinds hits like a platoon player too. This season he’s hitting .340 vs southpaws and .192 with far more at bats vs righties. He’s always been better against lefties, it’s just not always been this stark. A starter at any position can’t really be have splits vs righties like that and be a starter for long.

    Again, I’m not saying bench him, or that there are better options right there waiting, I’m just saying, keep developing, and if better comes along, let it happen. I love Ke’, best defender I’ve seen, but I’m not married to him absolutely needing to be the nailed on starting 3B through 2030.

    Maybe he meets some magic chiropractor who teaches him some Zen way of snapping it back into shape, or maybe this new mattress he bought will really help? Someone Call Purple, this mofo needs that mattress that can’t crack an egg!

    All I know is, Ke’Bryan plays a lot more than his body would like, and the more he plays, the less he does with the stick. One of those things has to change to see if the other might improve, that’s all I got.

    This probably isn’t a real conversation for this year, it’s just something I’ve been thinking about, especially as I try to see this thing over the next several seasons.

    Starter Spotlight: Feeling In-Spiers-ed Again

    6-24-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

    A week after his first start of the season, Carson Spiers and the Reds will run it back against the Bucs – this time on their home turf. After the Pirates hitters were able to get to him for 4 runs off 7 hits in 6 innings last week, Spiers will look to improve in his second go-round and in friendlier terrains as he has a 2.20 home ERA in 16.1 innings this season compared to 5.00 ERA in 9 innings away from Great American Ball Park.

    In the start last week, Spiers generated 12 whiffs while leaning on a sweeper/fastball-heavy approach which combined for 9 of those whiffs in 32 swings. In contrast, hitters were much better squaring up on the sinker – 9 swings, 4 balls in play, 0 whiffs and average exit velocity of 98.6MPH.

    I mentioned it last week and it remains true today – Pirates hitters will have their best chance of success against his sinker, which he uses mostly against RHH. He appears to be preferring to utilize the changeup down and away from lefties and runs the sweeper away from righties, generating that BIG swing-and-miss result.

    Red is 4-seam, Dark Red is Cutter, Yellow is Sweeper, Green is Changeup and Orange is Sinker

    Hitters today will need to hunt for the heater. He runs the 4-seam up to both lefties and righties and drops the sinker low in the middle of the plate. He’s a fly ball pitcher (35.4% ground ball rate) and plays in one of the most hitter-friendly places in MLB. Take advantage of hard-in, hard-out to get some early runs on the board.

    Let’s Go Bucs!

    Series Preview: Pirates (37-40) at Reds (36-41)

    6-24-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

    Hey, didn’t we just do this dance?

    Yeah, we just saw these guys and they just saw us. Neither team scored, both teams pitched and as the week shook out, the Pirates are exactly 1 game better than the Reds in the standings.

    The Pirates pitching is kinda in flux, with the David Bednar injury we’ll see some things change on the backend, and they’re due to get Lefty Martin Perez back in the mix here, likely on Tuesday or Wednesday.

    I think we’ll see Carmen Mlodzinski used in the back end more, and less on the opener end. In other words, if they’re still flirting with Ortiz as a starter, I think he’ll just straight up open.

    6/24
    Reds – Carson Spiers (R) –0-1, 25.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 20 Ks/5 walks, 1.22 WHIP
    Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) –3-5, 79.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 52 Ks/21 walks, 1.12 WHIP

    6/18
    Reds – Hunter Greene (R) –5-2, 82.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 89 Ks/37 walks, 1.18 WHIP
    Pirates – TBD

    6/19
    Reds – Andrew Abbott (L) –6-6, 84.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 70 Ks/26 walks, 1.18 WHIP
    Pirates – TBD

    Reds:
    Jonathan India has started to look a lot more like himself recently. In his last 15 he’s slashing .280/.345/.380. The power numbers are down for India, and playing in Great American Bandbox, that’s probably more significant than if you were talking about a young Tigers infielder.

    Pirates:
    Bryan Reynolds: It was Reynolds in the last iteration of this Series Preview, it’s still Bryan Reynolds. He’s not only hot, he’s the only bat who is at the moment. He’s carrying a 20 game hit streak into this series in Cincinnati, the longest such streak in baseball. Like Paris would say, that’s hot.

    Reds:
    Will Benson: No reason to change this one from the last preview. He’s still bad. In his last 7 .000/.118/.000, I mean what’s to break down?

    Pirates:
    Look, it’s hard to put someone in the “Who’s Not” category who hasn’t been very good all year, but if it’s good for the Reds it’s good for the Pirates. Jack Suwinski in his last 15 believe it or not has been worse than his overall season marks. .159/.229/.318 and I’m not sure it’s looked that good. That’s 44 at bats, 21 times that’s been a strikeout.

    Key Injuries

    The Pirates have some very welcome injury news along with some not so great injury news. David Bednar enters the list, retro to the 20th, it’s left oblique strain, and this could be weeks, or months. No prognosis yet, but here’s hoping it’s not that bad as they held him on the roster thinking he might just work through it.

    Now, Martin Perez is back very soon, as early as tomorrow. Marco Gonzales, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Ryan Borucki, Ji Hwan Bae, and Joey Bart are all either throwing off the mound, doing baseball activities or on rehab assignments.

    Henry Davis should be coming off concussion protocol here soon, he was still experiencing symptoms as of Saturday, hate to guess here, but the next really weird thing is going to come when they suddenly have 4 healthy catchers, and have to try to pick the 2 “best” while minding who they’d lose trying to stash in AAA.

    Very real possibility of losing Bart or Delay in this process, can’t see them carrying 4 catchers on the 40 man for much longer though.

    Things to Look For

    Mostly, familiarity starting to breed contempt. The Pirates will likely throw Keller at the Reds again, the Reds will toss Greene at the Bucs once more. Both these lineups were frustrated the first time around, expect frustrations to start to manifest themselves in some rivalry like sniping at each other.

    These teams looked like two teams who were going to pitch the hell out of each other at PNC Park last week. This week at GABP, we could see a completely different looking matchup.

    The ballpark differences are there for both teams, but the differences in these two particular ballparks can make it look like two different sets of teams are playing depending on the venue.

    Bailey Falter in particular is a high fastball pitcher and while the weak contact he generates with it is often more than good enough, this ball park has the ability to turn some of those deeper flyouts into front row stingers.

    Pirates Bullpen Finally Starting to play Up to Potential

    6-24-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

    Going back to the beginning of the season, many, including myself, expected the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen to be a top unit not only in the National League, but a top unit in all of baseball, especially after the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman in free agency.

    The Chapman signing created a three headed monster in the back-end of the bullpen, with Chapman, Colin Holderman and David Bednar on paper being a seemingly un-hittable group. You even had middle-relief options, like Ryan Borucki, Dauri Moreta and Carmen Mlodinski who were formidable forces in the middle innings in 2023, and suddenly the group was slated to be the best on the Pirates roster.

    Notice some of the names I mentioned? Well, because baseball, we never even saw that group all together. Moreta underwent Tommy John Surgery in March, Borucki was placed on the injured list on April 7, Mlodinski began the season on the injured list, same with Holderman, and suddenly, the bullpen was squandering for arms that could, well, throw.

    We’ve seen a ton of turmoil in the bullpen, especially in late-April and early-May, seeing the likes of Jose Hernandez, who is now a LA Dodger, Kyle Nicholas, Hunter Stratton, and Ben Heller(woah jump scare), all have their own, unique struggles.

    At the time of writing, its June 21, and over the past month, things have been much, much better from the bullpen, to the point that you, the reader, should be much more satisfied with what you’re seeing, because well, it’s been a group that’s performed as a collective.

    Over the past 30 days, David Bednar, Colin Holderman and Aroldis Chapman have a combined ERA of 1.65 in a combined 34 appearances, so that three-headed monster seems to finally be coming to form. Want to make it even better? Over the past 15 games, that trio has a combined 1.00 ERA, with Holderman and Chapman having not allowed an earned run in their past 8.2 innings.

    So, that’s been a start to the bullpen realizing its potential, seeing as that trio is the most important part of the bullpen because they end ballgames, duh. But the middle relief, which has seemingly been a merry-go-round of pitchers, has improved mightily as well.

    Luis Ortiz, who’s been an opener twice in the past week and change, has a 1.62 ERA over 16.2 innings in his past five appearances, regaining some of his 2022 form back, and more importantly, cutting down on the walks and finding his strikeout pitch again.

    His opener, Carmen Mlodinski, who was a pleasant surprise in 2023, has a 2.45 ERA over 14.2 innings over the past 30 days, allowing a mere .180 opponents batting average along the way.

    Even Kyle Nicholas and Hunter Stratton, the latter on the IL for now, have found their stride as of late, with Nicholas posting a 4.76 ERA and Stratton posting a 0.00 ERA in the past 15 days, albeit in very short outings.

    Josh Fleming found a way to give the Pirates four strong innings versus Colorado last weekend, and with the Martin Perez, Quinn Priester and Marco Gonzales injuries, this bullpen has become even more important for the Pirates over the past few weeks.

    The bullpen overall ranks 23rd in baseball in ERA(4.50), and that number is inflated by some players no longer on the roster, ahem Ben Heller, among others, but that ranking has dropped from what it originally was earlier on this season.

    On top of all this, the Pirates have one of the best rotations in all of baseball right now with Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Bailey Falter, so gelling the two together has been nice to see over the past week, as the Pirates pitching staff has only allowed more than three runs three times in the past nine games.

    The bullpen is by no means perfect right now, missing some key pieces I mentioned earlier, but its a unit, much like the offense that struggled throughout the end of April, that is playing back to their potential, or at least close to it, and if the bullpen continues to be formidable, especially late in games, the Pirates will win the close ones more often than not, and that could spell good things as July, and the trade deadline approaches next month.

    David Bednar going on the IL with a Left Oblique concern obviously changes the dynamic, but there is hope that they caught it early and he misses a minimal amount of time. This part of the team is crucial to their hopes and expectations in 2024.

    Starter Spotlight: Aaron Civale

    6-23-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

    Deciding game of the Rays series will come down to Paul Skenes against Aaron Civale, a trade acquisition by Tampa from the Cleveland Guardians last year, who enters with a 5.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 14 home runs allowed in just 76.1 innings pitched. Overall, he’s been a bit disappointing for the Rays, combining for a 4-8 record and 5.40 ERA in his 25 games since the trade.

    Civale has a wide arsenal of pitches: high-80s cutter, low-90s sinker, low-80s sweeper, high-70s curve and a low-90s 4-seam – all of which are thrown 10% or more of the time. None of the offerings have produced particularly strong results with his sweeper being the only plus pitch for the veteran righty.

    Similar to Zach Eflin, Civale works in the zone, issuing walks at a 6.6% clip. His strikeout numbers aren’t great though as he only Ks 23.6% of opponents as he struggles to avoid bats (23% whiff rate) and gives up hard contact (90.4 MPH average exit velocity.

    Civale hasn’t gone beyond six innings in any of his starts this season and has allowed 4 earned runs in two of his last three games. He has posted poor home/away splits (4.40 ERA/43 innings at home compared to 6.75 ERA/33.1 innings away) and hasn’t recorded a win in over two months.

    This is a struggling starting pitcher against whom the Pirates should be able to do damage. Get on the board early and keep the foot on the gas to secure the first series win over the Rays in seven years!

    Let’s Go Bucs!