After a sub-par showing last night, the Pirates will look to regroup against veteran Zach Eflin, who enters today with a record of 3-4, 4.12 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 74.1 innings pitched.
In his career against the Pirates, Eflin is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in 3 games, including a 3-hit shutout in 2016 and 7 shutout frames last year. The Bucs will look to fare a bit better today.
Eflin spent most of his career with the Phillies before joining the Rays ahead of 2023. He has regressed a bit from his first year with Tampa last season which saw him post a career-best 3.50 ERA and league-leading 16 wins over 31 starts.
A big reason for that regression likely stems from his decreased strikeout rate, which dropped from a strong 26.5% down to a poor 18.4% while his batting average against has climbed from .234 to .270 this season.
Eflin’s arsenal consists of a low-90s sinker, a high-80s cutter and a high-70s – with less frequent low-80s sweeper, low-90s 4-seam and mid-80s changeup.
He works mostly sinker/curve against RHH while preferring cutter/sinker when facing lefties and not generating very positive results with any of the three offerings as all have been hit at a .270+ clip and only his curve has above a 20% whiff rate (30.7%).
Eflin is likely going to fill up the strike zone as his 1.6% walk rate is far and away the best in MLB. Hitters will need to be ready to attack.
Additionally, his away ERA is 4.98 compared to 2.90 at home while also having a 4.97 ERA in day games – two things working against the veteran starter. Shower off the trouncing from yesterday and look to punch back in this afternoon’s affair.
The High-A affiliate to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Greensboro Grasshoppers, defeated Hudson Valley 4-2 on Thursday, winning the first half championship for the first time since 2012 and officially clinching a playoff spot in this year’s SAL Playoffs.
There has no doubt been impactful players on the Grasshoppers roster, but the hope is that some can grow into impactful players for the Pirates at some point.
Some of these may be names you’ve heard before, some may be completely new to you, but all of these players could have a real shot at the big league roster in due time if they continue to develop their craft and mold in professional baseball players.
2B Termarr Johnson
Termarr Johnson is the clear cut player on Greensboro’s roster that has the best shot to crack the big league roster, maybe as soon as next season.
Johnson, the number four overall pick in 2022(in between Henry Davis and Paul Skenes), has had quite the minor league career already between Low-A Bradenton and Greensboro, posting an .807 OPS with 25 homers and 91 RBIs with 26 stolen bases in 624 at-bats.
This season though, Johnson has struggled a bit at Greensboro, which is notoriously a hitter friendly park, hitting .217 with six homers and a .741 OPS, but an .845 OPS in the month of June suggests a good second half is on the way for Johnson.
Johnson is currently the Pirates second ranked prospect and highest position player in the system for Pittsburgh via MLB Pipeline and he just cracked 20 years old last week, so he has plenty of time to grow into his craft, which out of the draft, was considered one of the best as far as hitting is concerned that scouts had seen in quite some time.
He is also settling into a new position at second base, having played shortstop for his entire high school career, and although he is not a plus-defender despite his immense range (he’s 5-foot-8), his bat will no doubt be his calling card and eventually put him in place to be a strong middle infield option for the Pirates late in 2025 or early 2026.
3B Charles McAdoo
Charles McAdoo, 22, has had one heck of a season for the Grasshoppers, posting a .976 OPS with nine homers and 52 RBIs in 223 at-bats.
McAdoo has been impressive in his early minor league career overall since being selected in the 13th round last season, posting a .326 batting average with 14 home runs and 76 RBIs, so he’s been a steady offensive presence since his arrival to professional baseball.
McAdoo does round out the Pirates top-30 prospects on MLB Pipeline, and the San Jose State product was considered somewhat of a low-risk pick that late in the draft for Pittsburgh, seeing as he entered professional baseball with a good grasp on tapping into his power and handling any pitch thrown at him well, especially high velocity, which we all know is a massive part of today’s game.
Like Johnson, McAdoo played a different position before his arrival to the Pirates system, playing primarily second base for the Spartans in college, but his arm talent suggests he could stick at the hot corner, but he could be a plus-outfield option if the Pirates do decide with his plus-arm talent(50 grade). McAdoo is also 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, so a potential move to first base could be an option as well.
No matter the position, if McAdoo continues to hit the baseball well, he’ll climb through the system, and have to prove it at higher levels, and if he does, the Pirates will find a place for him down the line.
OF Lonnie White Jr.
A former football and baseball player in high school, Lonnie White Jr. decided baseball was the right path for himself, rather than going to play for the Penn State Nittany Lions and head coach James Franklin.
White Jr., 21, was selected 64th overall as a compensatory pick in 2021 out of high school, and one thing was apparent immediately, the kid is an athlete.
The Malvern Prep product has showcased that in his minor league career so far, stealing 25 bags in 448 at-bats and posting a .794 OPS along the way. So far this season, the bat hasn’t quite followed up his White Jr.’s athleticism, as he’s batting .168 with a .664 OPS, but much like other athletes in baseball, listen to Gary, Jim Stamm and Jeff Carr on this week’s Pirates Fan Forum, when they discussed Oneil Cruz and Elly de la Cruz, these types of players learn the game of baseball as they go, letting their athleticism carry them through rough patches and through the successful moments.
White Jr. slots in as the 11th ranked Pirates prospect on MLB Pipeline, ranking as the highest outfielder in the system, and that athleticism is awarded with a 70-run grade while his arm(50-grade) and fielding(60-grade), are already plusses. His hitting will surely come along with a 50-power grade, but keep in mind, this is a player that dealt with injuries right after being drafted, playing a mere 11 games from 2021-2022 before finally having a mostly healthy campaign last year.
He profiles as a center fielder with the plus-speed and fielding long-term, and if he can stay healthy and continue to improve at the plate, White Jr. has the makings of a potential 5-tool player for the Pirates down the line.
3B/SS Jack Brannigan
Jack Brannigan, much like Johnson, cracked the top-10 for Pirates prospects in MLB Pipeline’s rankings before the season began, mainly due to having immense success last season in Bradenton and Greensboro, where he nearly had a 20-20 campaign.
Brannigan, 23, has a career .810 OPS in the minors, with a bit of a dip in offensive production this year, as that number has fell to a .739, which is more than acceptable. He’s still found a way to utilize his plus-power(50-grade) though, hitting seven homers in 181 at-bats, which amounts to a homer about every 26 at-bats.
One word that described Brannigan? Toolsy. Brannigan was a former relief pitcher along with playing third base for Notre Dame, and he doubled down by both pitching and hitting in the Cape Cod League in 2021, where he also had considerable success.
Obviously Brannigan won’t be a pitcher as a professional, but with his toolset featuring plusses as a power hitting, above average fielder, it creates an interesting dynamic for his career path.
The saving grace for Brannigan despite his offensive numbers not exactly being flashy is that he absolutely hits the ball hard nearly every time he’s in the box, and along with that, he places the ball all over the field.
There’s no doubt Brannigan has the tools, he just has to grow into them, and if he can, he could be an interesting platoon like player with a plus-arm and plus-power moving forward.
LHP Hunter Barco
If you listen to Locked On Pirates, you’ve probably heard me mention Hunter Barco‘s name every now and then when I talk about the “Pirates Pitching Factory”, and it’s for good reason.
Barco, 23, ranks 13th on the board as far as Pirates prospects are concerned, which is warranted as a second-round selection from 2022 out of Florida.
Barco didn’t get a chance to hardly get started out of the gate though, as he tore his UCL and had to have Tommy John Surgery in May 2022, sidelining him for the entirety of his first professional season. He eventually returned in June of last season, and since, he’s showcased why he was worthy of a second-round selection.
Through 20 career starts and 22 appearances, Barco has a 3.66 ERA, 84 strikeouts, 25 walks and a 1.25 WHIP through 66.1 innings. Now those numbers don’t exactly fly off the page, or well desktop in this case, but he’s thrown strikes 66-percent of the time, including 70-percent last season, which has a direct correlation to his control, which comes in at a 50-grade right now.
One thing carrying Barco right now is his secondary pitches, as his slider(60-grade) and changeup(55-grade) actually grade out higher than his fastball right now(50-grade), so he already has a pretty advanced arsenal of pitches at such a young age.
His arm movement has also improved but remained deceiving, which was a concern out of the draft for him, but at 6-foot-4, Barco is a tank, and if he can use his three pitch arsenal with consistency, he should continue to profile as a starter moving forward.
Other Notables
RHP Patrick Reilly:
Patrick Reilly was a 5th-round selection in the 2023 for the Pirates, and as a reliever at Vanderbilt, he’s morphed into a starting role, for now, with Greensboro and seen success, having a 3.18 ERA and leading the Grasshoppers in innings pitched with 56.2. If Reilly can gain better command and throw more strikes, he should have success through the system.
INF Mitch Jebb:
Mitch Jebb, like Reilly, was selected in last year’s draft, already profiling with a high contact tool. He’s struggled in Greensboro, as evidence to his .558 OPS, but the second-round selection has tons of time to grow into his craft and doesn’t even really know what position he’ll be playing long-term in the system just yet. His plus-speed should also help him find a role down the line if the bat continues to come along.
1B/C Nick Cimillo:
Nick Cimillo is listed as a catcher but has played nearly every game with Greensboro as a first baseman this year, showcasing some defensive versatility. Cimillo is not a top-30 prospect, but he’s performing well in Greensboro, posting a 1.058 OPS in 118 at-bats with 12 homers, so he’s showcasing some power. Cimillo could make an impact down the line, but he’ll have to continue to be impactful with the bat to do so.
These players are all still very far away from impacting the big league roster, but they are making impacts down on the farm, which warrants attention, especially considering the Pirates window for competing seems to be opening by the day.
Watch these guys grow, get a sense of how they play, what they’re good at, and you’ll feel almost rewarded if and when they do arrive on the North Shore, and lastly, congrats to the Greensboro Grasshoppers on a strong first half.
6-21-2024 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Tampa Bay Rays come to town and, although they are currently near the bottom of their division, they are never to be taken lightly. Toeing the rubber tonight will be young righty Ryan Pepiot, who was acquired from the Dodgers this offseason as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade.
Over his first 12 games with the Rays, Pepiot has a 4.57 ERA with a 28.6% K rate and 7.5% walk rate, some very respectable numbers for a pitcher who hadn’t made 10 MLB starts in a season prior to this year.
Pepiot had a decent start to his career with the Rays, posting a 3.88 ERA through his first 9 games but he’s REALLY struggled lately with a 6.48 ERA in 3 starts this month with an OPS of .942.
In those June games, he has allowed six home runs in just 16.2 innings, which heavily inflated those numbers. But hard contact has been a recurring problem for Pepiot.
Looking at his peripherals, Pepiot allows hard contact at a 42.1% clip and barreled balls greater than 10% of the time with an average exit velocity (90.3 MPH) ranking well below league average.
Pepiot works mainly with a mid-90s fastball, high-80s slider and high-80s changeup. He works up in the zone with heat and ticks down lower with the offspeed and breaking stuff.
He has a very lively fastball with one of the best run values in all of baseball at 1.7 RV/100. This is buttressed by a vertical break of nearly 3 inches above average, leading to a 35.5% whiff rate and oBA of just .130.
On the other hand, his secondary offerings don’t fair quite as well. His slider has an oBA of .308 and his changeup has been slugged by opponents at a .569 clip. Both have become eminently hittable and should be targets for the Pirates hitters in tonight’s affair.
The Rays bullpen had to battle the past few days during their series with the Twins and several of their top arms will likely not be available. Take advantage of a struggling rotation and a pitcher who has been hitting a serious rough patch. Attack the off-speed stuff low, drive in runs early and secure a Bucco win!
The Pittsburgh Pirates, coming off of four series victories in their past five series, welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to PNC for City Connect Weekend.
Pittsburgh got a massive series victory over the Cincinnati Reds to kick off their week, a series that featured a ton of great pitching and a clutch moment from Bryan Reynolds to secure the series win.
The Rays enter the series versus Pittsburgh coming off of a series victory over the Minnesota Twins that included a combined seven-run ninth inning, with the Rays coming out on top in the tenth and securing the series victory.
These are not the Rays we have all become accustomed to in recent memory though. The Rays, who usually have a solidified starting rotation and strong bullpen, have not had such luck this season, as they rank 24th in MLB in ERA and 18th in WHIP. It’s a group that has taken a ton of blows due to injury, and the offense hasn’t been much better, ranking 26th in OPS and 6th in strikeouts.
Pittsburgh enters the series having allowed two runs or fewer in five of the past six, so starting pitching has continued to be the strength of the roster as it has all season.
The Rays lead the all-time series versus the Pirates 12-9, winning the past six matchups versus Pittsburgh, with the Pirates last victory against the Rays coming June 29, 2017.
The Rays haven’t gotten much from their offense this season, but as of late, Yandy Diaz has been their most consistent bat in the lineup. In June, Diaz is slashing .324/.354/.446/.800 with eight RBIs, including a .333 batting average in his past 15 games. He had five hits in the three game series versus Minnesota with three RBIs prior to this matchup, so watch Diaz in the lineup for the Rays in this matchup.
Pirates: OF Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds has been an absolute machine for the Pirates, batting .339 with a .581 slugging in his past 15 games, including two homers and eight runs batted in. Extend to his past 30 games, and Reynolds is slashing .299/.331/.496/.827 with five home runs and 21 RBIs, so he’s been a force at the top of lineup for the Pirates and done well against RHP, improving his average to .265 versus right-hand pitching on the season.
Rays: SS Jose Caballero Ranking fourth on the Rays in at-bats, Caballero has been mostly average throughout the 2024 campaign for Tampa Bay, but he’s struggled a ton as of late, batting .219 in his past 30 games with a mere .323 slugging. A .238 average on the season would suggest moderate performance, but his .652 OPS doesn’t offer the offense much, especially an offense that has struggled as much as Tampa Bay’s has.
Pirates: OF/1B Connor Joe Connor Joe had a stellar start to the 2024 campaign, but he hasn’t been able to match the consistency he saw in the first two months. In the month of June, Joe is batting .137 and slugging .255, a massive drop off from his April and May performance. To make matters worse, he’s batting .087 in his past seven games and struggling a ton versus right-handed pitching, so one hopes he can rekindle his early season fire sooner rather than later.
Key Injuries
Rays:
As mentioned earlier, the Rays have had a ton of blows to their starting pitching staff, with Jeffrey Springs, Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen, all on the shelf for an extended period of time. Infielder Junior Caminero, who’s the Rays number one prospect, has also dealt with injuries, having not played since May 28.
Pirates:
Ji-hwan Bae, who participated in live batting drills, is headed to Indianapolis for a rehab assignment. Meanwhile, Quinn Priester is expected to be evaluated in the next week. Martin Perez, who hasn’t pitched since May 26, threw a live bullpen recently and is nearing a return to the rotation. Ryan Borucki also threw a live bullpen on June 18 and he is anticipated to throw a live batting practice this weekend.
Who To Watch
Watch the Pirates offense versus the Rays pitching in this series. Each starter the Pirates face in this series has a 4.00 ERA or higher, while the Rays bullpen ranks 25th in baseball with a 4.42 ERA. After a series against the Reds that saw minimal offense, I would love to see the Pirates offense explode against a pitching staff it quite honestly should explode against. With Jones and Skenes pitching as well, you hope they give the duo run-support and find a way to win their fifth series in their last six.
I don’t want to ever forget what this team told us they had as goals this year, I’m not looking to rewrite history here, I’m just saying, the premise here should be more about what is not what was supposed to be. I want to focus on what this team is right this second and everything and ask, is this enough to get near the deadline with a chance they’d feel pressured to add?
I know they’re light in places, I know they have entire positions that aren’t producing a blessed thing. I’m not here to fix it, I’m just here to ask that one question, is there enough here to get to the point where they add? To me, that’s going to take getting to, and staying at 1-2 games over .500.
First, we should note they just completed playing the Reds, the last division foe they had to face. if the NL Central is as “down” as everyone claimed, that probably means they haven’t faced some teams they should beat. I think we’ve seen that too, they matchup quite well against everyone in this division, even the front running Brewers.
Before the All Star Break, the team will face the Rays, Reds, Braves, Cardinals, Mets, Brewers and White Sox.
That’s 22 games and the Pirates are currently 36-38. If they can go 13-9 in that stretch. AKA 6 series wins and a split. They’re setup at 49-47, likely firmly planed in the Wild Card and in shouting distance in this division. It’s a tough stretch but in that stretch they’ll send Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Bailey Falter to the mound roughly 4 times. That’s 16ish of those games where you feel pretty darn good about your chances no matter who you’re facing. And I won’t even mention how good Luis Ortiz has looked as the bulk guy or how close Martin Perez is to returning. Could be a couple more than that, maybe a couple less if they have to push guys back a pinch.
Again, that’s one facet, of course you have to hit at least a little and know what, that’s exactly what the team has largely done. In June, they’ve been frighteningly close to league average, even while you’ve watched them get nothing from Center Field or Catcher. I think the thing most of us have missed while watching this underperforming offense is how much of the league is pretty underwhelming too.
So far anyway, it’s really been a pitching league, and the Pirates have some of that in spades.
Yup, elephant in the room, the bullpen.
First, the narrative that they’re overworked is, well, wrong, they aren’t. Only 9 teams have asked for fewer innings from their bullpen, and consider this, those bulk outings for Luis Ortiz are in this number, Josh Fleming too.
They aren’t asking a lot, because largely, they’re getting great results from their starters and often handing the ball to someone in the 6th or 7th. This team is set up to handle that well, they have a good 7-8-9, even if they weren’t all here at the beginning or didn’t perform well all season long. Again, this is about what is, not what could be or has been. They need someone to emerge for the 6th or earlier if need be, but again, it should be enough most of the time.
Look, getting in position to add isn’t the same as claiming this is a wild card team. It’s just laying out a path that I think forces this team to avoid some of their worst impulses and treat this year’s club like the opportunity it is.
I make no claim as currently constructed this team is going to go be Arizona from 2023, I’m just saying, they have starting pitching, by far the hardest thing to get, they have a serviceable back end of the pen and they have enough hitters to win a tiny bit more than they lose.
The question here is do they have enough to twist this GM’s arm should he require it to get something done, and I really think they do.
It’s hard to look at this stretch for me and feel they should enter any series feeling they shouldn’t win it. The Braves are good, but they’ve largely been less than themselves. The Brewers are good, but they’ve already played them to a 3-4 count so it’s not like they got boat raced. Everyone else, well, if you’re going into series like that against opponents like that expecting anything short of a series win you should probably just call it and quit considering yourself a contender.
Man, I understand the people yelling for the GM to make a move right now, even if everything I know about the game and how it’s run tells me there’s just not going to be a meaningful deal before the All Star Game.
It’s in my mind a .500 team right now. If they hold pat at the deadline other teams who are in the same spot will add and they’ll fall back. If they add they’ll be one of the teams that likely closes the deal on a wild card spot.
They have to get there first though. So to me, this next 22 games is crucial. The team will either force their GM’s hand or wilt under the pressure. If Derek Shelton is holding anything back, well, stop. They’re going to do this while trying to balance this team’s need to give Skenes and Jones 5 days rest.
Man, buckle up, this is what it’s all about. Win, lose or draw, this is stuff our team has been completely uninvolved with for half a decade. No matter how you felt about the way they got here, no matter how much faster or farther they should have done whatever, this baseball team right now, is in position in this league as currently constructed to make a run here.
Imperfect as they are.
And don’t get sweaty about what they’d have to move or whatever, it’s not going to be Bubba or Termarr, let’s focus on them getting into position. It’s no different than getting a crappy old car inspected and getting handed an estimate that probably is twice what you’d get for it. If you think you can get another year out of it, you’ll invest, if you don’t, you probably just move on.
I think they’ll find a worthwhile investment, even if they’re just upgrades for this season. But make no mistake, the players currently on this team will have to earn it.
What do you think? Do they have enough to force Cherington to acknowledge he has to go get more?
With the series-deciding game today, the Pirates will send out Mitch Keller to face off against Reds flamethrower, Hunter Greene. Entering play today with a 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and one of the best fastballs in the game outside of Pittsburgh.
Unsurprisingly, his fastball is Greene’s main pitch, throwing it 57% of the time this year. Greene pairs his fastball with a high-80s slider and works mostly off those two offerings in his games. He throws in a high-80s splitter and low-80s curve infrequently but mostly works off the fastball/slider combo. Opponents are hitting just .206 against the slider and .185 against the fastball so it has certainly been working out for him.
Looking at his splits, Greene has naturally pitched better away from Great American Ball Park (3.06 ERA) than he does in the home games (4.02) but also has performed better in day games (2.74) compared to night ones (3.94). That said, he has had some struggles lately. Although Greene has gone 5+ in 12 of his last 13 starts, he has allowed 4+ runs in 2 of his last 3 outings so it’s possible the Bucs are seeing him at an opportune time,
Greene has started 22+ games with the Reds in each of the past 2 seasons with 30%+ K rate and under 10% walk rate both years. This season, however, has seen both rates trending in the wrong direction with a 25.7% K rate and a 10.7% walk rate. He’s also benefitted from some good batted ball luck and low HR/FB rates.
He has avoided barrels at a strong clip (only a 5.2% rate) as well as hard contact (34.2%) while his ground ball rate from 29.3% in 2022 to 35.3% this year.
Pirates hitters will need to exhibit patience at the plate today – something they have failed to do in the first two games of this series with the starters pitching 13 of 17 innings in the series. Greene’s 37 walks are the most of any pitcher in the National League and he’s tied for the MLB lead in hit batsmen (9 – one ahead of his mound rival in Mitch Keller) and if either of his two pitches is off on the day, hitters need to key-in on the other and take free passes when they come.
Chance to win the series today so the team needs to bear down to get the win ahead of the day off tomorrow.
Carlson Reed was selected in the fourth round of the 2023 MLB First Year Player Draft, and the West Virginia product has shown plenty of reason to have eyes on him in the lower levels of the system so far in 2024.
Reed, 21, was stellar at West Virginia in 2023, receiving All-Big 12 First Team honors after striking out 60 batters across 38.0 IP in 25 appearances. He was also on the NCBWA Stopper of the Year Watch List and the ABCA All-East Region Second Team.
Reed has 11 starts at Low-A Bradenton so far this season, tossing 49.2 IP with a 1.99 ERA, 64 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. Per MLB Prospects, Reed has yet to break the Pirates top-30 prospects list, but with his play so far, one would assume he’ll break through when they update the list mid-season, as they do every year.
On my show, Locked On Pirates, I had a chance to sit down with Reed, discussing a multitude of topics that I am sure all of you will find interesting, and Reed is another pitching prospect you should keep a close eye on moving forward.
How have you felt this season overall, especially with how impressive you’ve looked so far?
Honestly, it’s felt amazing. The transition from here to college is a learning process, and more me learning how to become a professional, that’s kind of the main thing I’ve been focusing on. I mean, I love pretty much everything around here, the staff, the players, it’s been a really comfortable environment and its been pretty easy to focus more on the baseball things than focusing on getting comfortable.
What have you learned so far in the system and what is the biggest difference between WVU and your time with the Pirates?
I have mostly learned how to take it day-by-day and make sure that like, I have been getting into the training room more recently to kind of figure out more about my body than I have before and just kind of doing something everyday to make my body feel good or make my arm feel good, whether I need to know shapes and all that, that’s kind of what we’ve been working on. The coaches kind of being there through everything and they’ll always answer any questions that I have. I’d say the biggest difference between here [Bradenton] and college [West Virginia] is that college builds that mental toughness you need for this… getting thrown into the longest season you’ve ever had, it’s all a learning process, so I truly believe the college aspect has helped me with it.
You were a reliever in college but have transitioned to a starting role, what’s changed during that transition?
With that also comes knowing your role. I’ve kind of gone in-and-out of being a starter, I haven’t truly been able to know who I am as a starter, so that’s also what I’ve been learning down here [Bradenton]. Being a reliever, I’ve taken some reliever things and added it to being a starter. The main thing I learned last year especially was to take it one pitch and one batter at a time. Like especially if I give up a hit, sure, cool, the guy’s on first base, but he can’t really go anywhere unless the guy in front of me does something. So I make sure to stay in the moment, whether I walk someone of whatever, that’s in the past, I have to keep focusing on what’s in front of me.
What coaches have been your biggest influence so far?
Oh, for sure got to with Coach 40 [Matt Ford], he’s been more of a light-hearted coach, which is something I definitely need because I tend to get hard on myself very easily, so he’s kind of implemented that step-by-step process with me and knowing that its not a race. I can take time to actually figure out who I am, I mean, I am still on the younger side, so I can’t keep speeding past the process, I need to live in the process, and he [Ford] reminds me of that, which is really helpful.
What are your thoughts on Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and the rest of the pitching system right now?
I mean, honestly, it’s very cool and encouraging to be in the position I am right now. Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, they’re both around my age and they’re doing very well in the big leagues, so seeing that gives me a confidence boost because it makes me think that I can also do this, this is very attainable for the future. Watching them and taking the time to see what I need to do to get to that level makes it very cool to be in this organization.
Tell Pirates fans one thing about yourself, and what are your short-term and long-term goals?
So, I actually used to play the saxophone, and I have been playing the saxophone since I was in sixth grade, so in the off-season when I have a little more time to myself, I’ll go back into it. I’m a little rusty, but I’ll get there. In terms of short-term goals, especially for this season, I just want to learn how to be a starter for a full season, kind of see how that is because I’ve never really had that before with the elongated season. Long-term goals, I want to be able to touch the field[PNC Park] for the first time, I know I’ve played there twice as West Virginia Mountaineer, but I personally never got to touch the field, so I am still looking forward to that and will hopefully be able to help win the Pirates a World Series again.
Keep a close eye on Reed, as his stuff continues to get better with each outing, as he has yet to allow an earned run in 10.0 IP so far in June, posting an impressive 17 strikeouts to just two walks. He also had a 3.00 ERA in 24.0 IP in May, so Reed is continuing to mold his game and grow into a starting role.
Reed is scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, June 19 as the Marauders take on the Lakeland Flying Tigers.
With a chance to earn a series win, the Bucs bats will have to face-off against a former Pirates draft pick in Nick Lodolo.
Entering today’s game, the southpaw has a 7-2 record, 2.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP with 62 Ks to 15 walks. He’s won each of his last 4 starts posting a 2.31 ERA in that stretch, and has gone 5+ innings in each of his outings this year.
The 41st overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, Lodolo declined the offer to sign with Pittsburgh out of high school, opting to head to college and try improving his stock for the next time around – and he was successful as the Reds took him 7th overall in the 2019 draft.
Lodolo has faced off twice against the team he spurned 8 years ago, posting a 1-1 record with a 3.97 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 11.1 innings.
The big issue with Lodolo over the years is staying on the field. He missed most of 2023 due to a stress reaction in his left tibia and lost two months in 2022 with a reported back strain. But when he’s healthy, he is devastating.
Lodolo works mainly off his 4-seam fastball, which sits 94-95, and adds in his secondary offerings in a low-80s curve and a high-80s changeup. And all three are plus-pitches, with hitters batting <.215 against all three of them thus far this season.
He has gotten less effective as the season has progressed as his monthly xFIP has jumped from 2.88 in March/April to 3.79 in May to 4.47 in his three June starts.
Lodolo is one of the toughest opponents the Pirates have faced this season but they have risen to the challenge in the past against difficult starters and will strive to do so again tonight.
He works off the fastball and we have been most successful against that pitch and against southpaws. Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Connor Joe in particular should look to attack as they all are hitting the heater at a .300+ clip.
Look to get Lodolo’s pitch count up and attack him early. He has a 4.03 ERA first time through the lineup but, if he is able to settle down, he has a 1.21 ERA second time around.
Luis Ortiz has had quite the career with the Pittsburgh Pirates up to this point, going from an out-of-nowhere, emerging starting pitcher with some serious gas in 2022 to falling from grace a bit to being completely out of the Pirates rotation.
Throughout all of this though, Ortiz has remained a member of the Pirates pitching staff, scrounging around for an established role, and although it appears he is still finding his place, as of late, he’s seemed to be on the right track to finding something consistent for himself and the team, becoming beneficial to not just himself, but others as well.
Over the past week and change, we have seen Carmen Mlodzinski, who mind you has improved mightily from his early season struggles, open games in which the Pirates did not want, or flat out didn’t have, a starter scheduled or available to pitch. Mlodzinski has been impressive in those outings, and both times, he was followed by Ortiz, who turned back the clock a bit.
On the 2024 campaign, Ortiz has a 2.51 ERA over 43.0 IP in 20 appearances, including a 2.11 ERA in his past seven appearances. Ortiz’s biggest struggle has been his command, seeing walks become a massive problem over the past season and change, but he’s been much better in that department this year, posting 33 strikeouts to 17 walks, a much closer ratio to his 2022 campaign when he had 17 strikeouts and 10 walks and a much better ratio than what we saw in 2023 when he had 59 strikeouts and 48 walks.
His advanced analytics suggest those statistics aren’t a front either, as he ranks in the 73rd percentile in xBA(.224), the 74th percentile in fastball velocity(95.4) and the 81st percentile in pitching rule value(7), so although he isn’t missing tons of bats, as evidence to his 20-percent whiff rate, he is finding ways to have success with the fastball again, something he lost a bit in 2023.
June, the month we have seen Ortiz go deep in outings after the Mlodinski opening stints, has been especially impressive from Ortiz, who currently has nine strikeouts and 1 walk with a 0.73 ERA in three appearances, all of which he pitched three innings or more.
To further drive this point, Ortiz’s walks per nine innings has dipped considerably from last season, from 4.98 to 3.56, while his strikeouts per nine has increased from 6.13 to 6.91, so its safe to say we have seen massive improvements from Ortiz on the mound.
The question over the past year and a half for Ortiz has been what kind of role he would carve out for the Pirates, and almost suddenly, he’s found one, becoming useful as not only a long-reliever, but also a “relief” to two of the Pirates young, top stars in Jared Jones and Paul Skenes, who are both in their first full seasons of work at top level.
Over the past weekend, when many anticipated Skenes to pitch Sunday in Colorado, we saw two bullpen games, due to a desire to keep Skenes fresh, seeing as this is the first time he has ever truly pitched on four-five days rest on a consistent basis, as he wasn’t doing so at Air Force, LSU or even the minor leagues very often.
The same can go for Jones, who has seen “struggles” as of late, and I put “struggles” because he is having a rookie campaign and is having the usual ups-and-downs of one, but his spin rates have fallen a bit, nothing super worrisome, but is a possible indication of fatigue, seeing as Jones has already pitched 79.0 innings this year.
For Ortiz, this could line up well for, well himself, and Derek Shelton and the coaching staff, as it could set up for the Pirates to have a viable, consistent approach to games where they want to push Jones, Skenes or any pitcher back a day to keep them fresh, allowing Ortiz and Mlodinski to operate in roles that have now produced a 100-percent winning percentage, albeit 2-0, but if it isn’t broken, why fix it?
Now, in a perfect baseball world, you wouldn’t want to have to do that, but with injuries to Martin Perez, who appears to be nearing a return soon, Marco Gonzales and Quinn Prietser, it has become a necessity to have something in place in case its needed, and Ortiz has shown he can be relied upon, and it helps in another area as well.
We have seen this bullpen gas itself out due to the bullpen games and shorter outings the Pirates get from their starting pitchers every now-and-then, but in those bullpen games we have seen from Ortiz, he has taken up a large chunk of the innings needed, but also done so efficiently, throwing 9.1 innings while only allowing one earned run and setting things up well for the Pirates to utilize their strong back-end bullpen options without having to over utilize them.
If Ortiz can continue to be a steady force in the middle, or even beginning of games, it helps the starting pitch staff by leaps and bounds and also benefits a bullpen, that’s usage as stated before is one of the highest in baseball.
It is good for Ortiz as well, because he has had a ton of changes to his roles throughout his first two years in a Pirates uniform, but if he continues to be consistently impressive, the Pirates have no choice but to keep him there, and they should with the current state of things.
I am sure Ortiz will continue to find innings moving forward, and he should, because even on the surface, Ortiz has continued to be consistent, and is arguably one of the most consistent arms the Pirates have had all season, and they should be thankful for it with the amount of turmoil they’ve seen in the middle-relief so far in 2024. Ortiz may have carved out a new role for himself, and it may a role he stays in for the long haul, and that’s a good thing for himself, and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The very first thing I noticed on the schedule when it came out was how deep into the season the Pirates were going to go before having faced every team in their division. Tonight they face the Reds for the first time in 2024 and it’s safe to say, these two teams will play a huge role in how the other’s season turns out.
There aren’t a ton of differentiators here. The Pirates have an edge on the mound, the Reds have an edge at the plate and on the basepaths. The Pirates are 14-15 against teams over .500, the Reds are 12-19. The Bucs drag a -28 Run differential into this series, the Reds are +13.
In the division, the Reds are 8-8, the Pirates are 8-9.
These should be close series, these teams are in very similar places. Lots of young talent. Lots of inexperience and excitement and failure that wasn’t anticipated, and performances from guys who weren’t supposed to matter.
Tight division, I could do a breakdown like this for 4 of the teams.
Lets go!
1. Shocka Brah, Bryan Reynolds is Hot
It feels like we do this dance every year. Bryan Reynolds isn’t this, Bryan Reynolds isn’t that, and then by sometime in June, he’s every bit the hitter we’ve become accustomed to.
On the season he leads the Pirates in OPS at .768. Good for 24th in the National league. His 9 homeruns are second only to Andrew McCutchen as it comes to Pirates leaders.
In his past 30 games he’s racked up 40 hits, 5 homers, 21 RBI while hitting .310 with a .504 SLG.
He’s not the best player in the National league, but until someone takes the title by force, he is the best player on the Pirates roster offensively speaking.
The MLB Average OPS is at an all time low, .701. Last year, admittedly with a full season you can’t compare 1:1, MLB Average OPS settled at .734.
I say this because we don’t often recognize an OPS under .800 as “good” that’s why I point out the ranking, and the averages. I expect both his and the league’s OPS to climb right along with the temperatures, but at some point, we need to accept Bryan Reynolds for the player he is and start expecting the performance to come.
If Bryan Reynolds is the top offensive performer on this team, they probably don’t have enough offense. That said, his consistency and ability to always be above the line from a 50,000 foot perspective is exactly why you give a guy like that a longer contract. He’s the mortar that makes sure it won’t collapse, but he’s not the pretty things you hang on the walls that help you sell the house.
Kinda fits his personality no? He’s one of those guys who when he’s done playing you’ll look at his body of work and say, damn, that looks higher than I thought it’d be.
Novel idea, appreciate it while you’re watching it, instead of wishing he was more of this or more of that, he’s one thing the Pirates need desperately. Bryan Reynolds. A relatively healthy player, who plays 95% of his team’s games, plays well in the field, does everything above league average offensively and wants nothing to do with being the center of attention or the face of the team or whatever your Pirates fan soul needs him to be to earn his paycheck.
This is a good baseball player, and has more than proven he should always be the least of your worries.
Remember watching an 80’s sitcom and someone new took over a role and it warranted nothing more than some announcer dude saying it quickly at the beginning of the show?
That’s kinda what’s happened with Jared Triolo. He was named the starting second baseman, his bat didn’t take to the title.
He has now played great defense all over the infield, and I’d bet if they wanted to try it he’d probably handle the outfield too. The bat, still a work in progress, maybe, we hope. Thing is, to be better in this role than Alika Williams. Similar bat profiles, although I believe Jared has room to improve his output.
A guy who can play just about anywhere can really help a team survive injuries or even pull back on the usage of an underperforming player for a spell here and there and this team has had to use Connor Joe a lot heavier at first base than I’m sure they planned on.
Alika gives you short stop and second base, and he does it well. Jared gives you every infield position right now.
I can see this being a deadline upgrade, a jack of all trades type the team can plug in wherever they want with a little more track record and helpful bat, unless of course Jared himself can become a bat you don’t say, “well he sure can field” when discussing.
He’s almost perfect for this role right now, if only because he’s here and at least as it stands he’s not the type of prospect you’ll panic over if he goes a week only getting 10 at bats.
What he is, well, it’s hardly a compliment, for his role he’s good enough for now. I’d want more heading into the stretch though. Very happy if that would wind up being Jared, even if it takes a few years to happen. There’s value in that on a baseball team.
3. Oneil Cruz vs Elly De La Cruz
The funny thing about stuff like this is, these two players will never “face” each other in any meaningful way. One might rob the other defensively, that’s about it.
The Comps are superficial. They’re both tall, they’re both Dominican, they both play short stop, huge arms, hell both their teams use them as designated cut off man, and they’re both fast, although Elly uses his speed much more effectively on the basepaths.
Elly is a switch hitter, but much like Cruz, against lefty’s he’s neutralized to a degree. Both have big power, and sample size to sample size Oneil has produced more homeruns and doubles in fewer at bats.
They get on base comparably, but Elly has 71 career stolen bases to Oneil’s 18. If they ran a race Elly might win unless it was long enough for Oneil’s longer stride to make up for the sprint difference.
And here’s the think almost nobody mentions in this comparison, Oneil is 25 and Elly is 22. Elly got here a lot quicker and by nature, he’ll likely have a longer career to amass numbers.
In other words, you don’t have to drag one to think one is better, in some ways, they’re both very flawed players with ceilings they may never reach, what’s intoxicating is how much room there is still from the effective but flawed players they are today and the MLB sensations they could be if either of them dared to reach their potential.
They’re both about potential. But their floors are pretty damn attractive too.
4. Andy Haines Philosophy?
Many fans felt like the code had been cracked. It was the most useful thing Wil Crowe had done for Pirates fans since being traded for. In one tidy soundbite Wil had outlined for fans Andy Haines entire philosophy.
Right?
I saw this video on tik tok and I think it sheds a light on the Andy Haines philosophy when it comes to hitting pic.twitter.com/9AtvSe8JrF
It was all there in black and white. Well, sound waves and facial expressions I suppose. Fans immediately pictured Haines cornering Jack Suwinski in the locker room telling him to ignore fastballs at all cost.
Listen, I’m gonna do this, but I’m not doing it because I want to. I think this team should move on from Haines, or at the very least get them some better hands on coaching and move him to administrative duties. But this is such a gross oversimplification of what he does, and at the same time misunderstanding of why this advice would have been given to Mr. Crowe, I just had to talk about it.
Wil Crowe was so afraid to throw his fastball in the zone, it had become a near certainty he wouldn’t do it. Hitters never swung at the pitch and ambushed every offspeed pitch he threw. This was Andy Haines telling a pitcher on his team who asked why this is happening to him.
That’s it. He’s telling Wil he had become predictable and rendered every fastball he threw little more than a waste pitch.
Not his hitting philosophy. Certainly not all of it.
Now, are there pitchers in this league that warrant such advice? Oh for sure there are. But nobody is being told in some overlying way to avoid hitting any pitch in particular.
He may tell Oneil Cruz that Chris Sale is never going to throw him a slider that stays in the zone. Well, I’m sure it’s not never, but it might be like 5% of the time it’s a called strike. That’s kinda useful information, it’s also incredibly rare and specific to a matchup.
Like, Bryan Reynolds may need to know how rarely a certain pitcher lands his backdoor slider in the zone. It’s a chronic chase pitch for Bryan and knowing a pitcher doesn’t tend to have that kind of control with it can help him stay back or look out over the plate a bit more for a mistake.
Again, this isn’t a defense of Andy Haines, it’s more a defense of the profession. It’s just not that simple, and at the very top level, meaning overall philosophy.
You’ll never be told what any team’s hitting philosophy is in a nice tight word box, because at their core they’re all the same.
Be Athletic and “ready to hit” – This is basically be where you need to be in the swing to react to what you recognize. You’ll hear this called “be on time” by players a lot. For a coach this will be introducing timing mechanisms, or balance techniques. At the professional level, meaning all the way back to A Ball, it’s not like you’re teaching someone to hit baseballs.
Understand your zone – For Juan Soto this is pretty easy, it’s called the strike zone. It’s why he’s so good at drawing walks too, if he can’t reach it with damage it’s a ball. Most players don’t have this advantage, and it can be improved with experience for many, to a degree anyway. For most players, this is coming to realize there are zones they just can’t cover, at least not for expected results. Some players will try to make adjustments here to expand their good spots, a coach helps make sure they aren’t doing so by shrinking it elsewhere. Where this goes too far for some is when they develop blind spots to these areas, not even defending the territory if you will. Then their heat map becomes the equivalent of Wil Crowe’s problem from the other side. This is an area I feel Haines doesn’t pick up on fast enough, and doesn’t do a great job helping them expand.
Now, you can get cute beyond that, but that’s the base that everyone works with. Scouting reports are what prompt things like what Wil was talking about and those are delivered to players on a daily basis. Some guys like to try to adjust in between at bats, others like to stop taking in information once the game starts. A coach has to know what guys respond to, and I suppose needs to know when it’s really best to just leave them alone too.
The last point I want to hit here aside from reminding you again that I really believe an upgrade is needed here, is that almost all players seek and regularly work with outside of their team sources. Pitchers do too, but once the season gets underway, they’re much more tightly watched. Meaning, Jared Jones can’t just head off to Driveline over the weekend and throw 150 pitches trying to add velocity. But a hitter can always call dad and take some swings. A hitter can always reach out to that coach who first helped him find his way. Hitters routinely go home over the All Star Break and work with some hometown “dude” they trust or a player they’ve befriended who lives nearby. It’s news here because for the most part we hate Andy Haines being the hitting coach and have decided he should be fired.
This is entirely team sanctioned, encouraged even. I know it’s been implied Jon Nunnally being dismissed was about some weird retribution over Ke’Bryan working with him, but people, he still does work with him, to this day.
We can all want them to make a change of some sort here, but let’s have a bit more respect for the job than to assume he’s calling out a pitch to not swing at, clapping his hands and sitting back on the bench.
5. Priorities Becoming Clearer
To me the Pirates deadline priorities are starting to really take shape. I won’t say they’re set in stone, but I think they’re becoming clear things to start digging around for. I’ll talk about each one here, and what would need to happen to change it from need to want.
Left Handed Power Bat – I think ideally this is still a first baseman, I also don’t think I see it out there, even with some borderline teams falling back. The Pirates have two who are drastically underperforming, Jack Suwinski and Rowdy Tellez. Recency bias aside, the whole picture isn’t good and that’s the only thing that could change this from a need to a want, these two performing. I think the Pirates need to keep this generic, in other words, I don’t think you can look for a certain position for this bat, it needs to be a wider net to catch something here. These two would have to go on a tear from here through the All Star Break to change this. Even then they’d need Reynolds or Cruz to be hitting more homers than they are. Hard to see this one coming off the shopping list.
A Back End Reliever – I don’t want to acquire another reliever to be the middle, I want more options for the back and to force someone with that pedigree into the 6th if need be. More than anything, I don’t want to go into a game 3 feeling like I’m missing my 7-8-9 guys because they’ve gone 2 straight games. Let’s get another variable or two in there. Now, what can change this? Well, health for one thing. Borucki, or even Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales along with Quinn Priester could all combine to reenforce this bullpen. Maybe it allows them to focus Nicolas or Mlodzinski. I’ll just say this, it’s rare for any team trying to make the playoffs to not try to grab some type of reliever, so if you’re going to get one, let’s get someone who was already carrying leverage and bolster the part of the pen our starters tend to hand it off to.
A Catcher – I know, I know, they have a bunch of them and one of them is a 1:1, but a team trying to make the playoffs can’t get this type of production from the catching position. Obviously there is a way this can change, and it’s so simple, if Henry hits, this becomes moot. Pray and do voodoo or whatever you think might work, because that’s the best thing that could happen to this team. If he doesn’t though, they need help. A healthy Bart won’t be enough, I’ll be shocked if Grandal is healthy by then and as much as I like Jason Delay, a starting catcher he is not. This would need to be a rental, or in this event Henry hasn’t emerged, it’d be nice if they had another year, it’s not like you can assume Endy will jump right back in, he himself is not proven offensively. A playoff team with a hole at catcher is just not fun for anyone. Henry is the only one with the potential to make this moot, and he himself can’t be here to try at the moment. Tic Tic Tic.
I could probably go on, if I did I’d probably have to look to center field but I’m starting to think they might have to turn back to Bryan Reynolds. Their best offensive alignment based on current performance probably doesn’t have Jack Suwinski or Michael Taylor in it. At some point you may have to ask Bryan to make right your GM’s wrongs, especially if he doesn’t fix them or of course Jack could start hitting and kill a couple birds with one big Nordic looking dude’s bat.
Steel City Pirates 