Starter Spotlight: Shades of Gray

6-12-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Signed to a free agent contract for 3 years, $75M this past off-season, Sonny Gray was an AL Cy Young runner up in 2023, finishing with a 2.79 ERA, 3.64 xFIP and 2.83 FIP.

This year, the 34-year old has seen a small spike in his ERA to 3.29 but he’s dropped his FIP (2.73) and xFIP (2.65) to career-best rates mostly due to a sharpe increase in strikeouts.

Among qualified starting pitchers, only Tyler Glasnow (34.5%), Garrett Crochet (34.3%) and Jack Flaherty (33.5%) have a higher strikeout rate than Gray – 32.8%, which is the highest of his career and a 12.5% bump from his pace last season.

Free passes have surprisingly become a bit of an issue lately for Gray as he’s allowed 2 or more walks in each of his last 5 starts after permitting 1 or less in 6 of his first 7 outings. He’s also allowed 3 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts as those control issues have crept up on him.

Looking at Gray’s arsenal, he has a mix of pitches – low-90s fastball, mid-80s sweeper, low-80s curve, low-90s sinker, high 80s cutter and high-80s changeup – with the first five of those offerings being used 15%+ of the time.

His fastball velocity has dropped a bit over the years but while Gray has never blown batters away with his heater, it’s definitely become less effective even as he’s decreased its usage.

Fortunately (for him, not opponents), his other offerings have fared MUCH better with opponents batting .160 or less against his curve (.160), sweeper (.141) and sinker (.135). All three pitches also have oSLG under .290 and strikeout rate of 30% or more. His sweeper is especially effective with a 44.9% whiff rate and 59.2% K rate.

Pirates hitters will need to key in on the fastball and hope his control issues creep up again. They typically have played better against “good” pitching and played down the poor performers as they did yesterday against Mikolas.

While Gray has been much better at home (1.60 ERA) than away (5.14 ERA), there are ways to beat him and the Bucs will need to work counts and hunt heat in order to find success against Sonny today.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Examining the Pittsburgh Pirates through one month of Paul Skenes career

6/11/24 By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

Paul Skenes was pitching collegiately one-year ago, leading head coach Wes Johnson and the LSU Tigers to a College World Series title.

After that monumental moment for Skenes, the bigs were calling, and talks of him being the best pitching prospect since the Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg ran rampant through the MLB landscape, and after much deliberation and questions as to who would go number one overall, Skenes heard him name called first, seeing the next step of his career take him to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Now, Skenes is dazzling on MLB pitching mounds, facing the likes of Shohei Ohtani and other top talent across the sport. Did I mention he’s only been here for a month? It feels much longer, seeing as it feels like we are watching in slo-motion every time he touches the rubber, anticipating what will happen next.

As I have stated many times before on my show, Locked On Pirates, Skenes is the type of player who changes the direction of a franchise, bringing along a word that many fans have used as of late, urgency, hoping the Pirates “buy-in” to what Skenes is offering this team, and something they haven’t quite had in a very long time, a truly elite, ace-like pitcher.

So, let’s look back at what we’ve seen from Skenes throughout his first month, and even expand to the team overall, seeing how he’s impacted things in such a short time.

The Pirates record suggests good things since Skenes debuted

Since May 11, when Pittsburgh saw Skenes debut versus the Chicago Cubs, they have a record of 14-12, which at the surface may not seem all that impressive, but that includes series wins over the Chicago Cubs, the Atlanta Braves, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Minnesota Twins, all teams with postseason aspirations.

The Pirates are 4-1 in games when Skenes starts, with the lone loss coming to the Giants in his third start. In those five games, Pittsburgh has scored 45 runs, or nine runs per game, so the offense has given him much needed run support.

Again, 14-12 may not be a flashy record, but its a respectable pace for a team that saw a hot start and fell flat for a two-three week stretch. 14-12 amounts to a winning percentage of 53.85-percent, and with 97 games left, if the Pirates kept that pace over the final 97 games, they would have a record of 52-45, placing them at 83 wins, a win total that could get them to the playoffs with the way things stand in the NL.

Now, staying on that pace consistently is nearly impossible, but with a lethal trio of Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller in the rotation and a solid complimentary starter in Bailey Falter, you can expect the Pirates to continue to perform and stay in it, with Skenes being a major contributor to that.

There’s no doubt the baseball has been better since Skenes arrived, so lets get to that.

Nick Gonzales and the offense deserve some credit too

The day before Skenes made his highly anticipated debut, the Pirates brought up Nick Gonzales, who posted a 1.039 OPS with AAA-Indianapolis over 120 at-bats, and with Jared Triolo taking a noticeable step-back offensively, the Pirates needed offensive production at second base, and so far, its been the right move, and some.

Since Gonzales arrived, he leads the NL in RBIs with 23, has an OPS of .845 and continues to be a force in the middle of the batting order. Factor in a .339 average over his past 15 games, and you can argue that Gonzales has been just as important as Skenes since his arrival.

Gonzales, alongside the offense kicking into another gear, has been much better since Skenes arrived than before. The Pirates rank middle of the pack in home runs(15th) with 26, four of those coming from Gonzales, a part of the team that was desperately missed after leading in the category across Spring Training.

On top of that, the Pirates rank 16th in slugging(.388), 16th in OPS(.686), third in BABIP(.320) and 17th in total bases(327), so there’s no doubt of room for improvement, but when you take into account that the Pirates rank higher in nearly every offensive category than they did before Skenes arrival, the improvement is documented and welcomed.

If Skenes and the starting pitching staff can be consistent and the offense can be average, which it can be as suggested by the statistics I just outlined, then it spells for a pretty good mixture of a balanced baseball team, which may be enough over the course of the season.

There is one problem though.

The bullpen, which we thought would be elite, has been up-and-down, to put it lightly

The Pirates bullpen looked like a force to be reckoned with when they decided to unload $10.5-million for Aroldis Chapman in the offseason, creating a lethal back-end trio that included Colin Holderman and David Bednar.

Bednar got off to a slow start but has looked much more like himself since, posting a 2.03 ERA in May. Chapman has been up-and-down, as he has been most of his career, but he’s been nice to have. Holderman has been one of the best relievers in baseball since coming off the injured list to begin the season, so you’ve probably seen the back-end bullpen be what we thought it could be.

Meanwhile, the middle relief has been a mess, that’s the best way I can put it. Remember Ryan Borucki and Dauri Moreta, yeah, the Pirates miss those guys. There have been bright spots in the middle part of the bullpen, like Hunter Stratton, who has a 2.25 ERA so far in June. Outside of that thought, it’s been rough.

Carmen Mlodinski has taken a step back from his strong 2023 campaign, sitting with a 5.84 ERA over 12.1 IP, Kyle Nicolas has a 6.14 ERA over 14.2 IP, Luis Ortiz, despite having a 2.61 ERA, doesn’t seem to have a consistent enough role and well, everything else they’ve thrown at the wall hasn’t been great.

Pair that all together, and the Pirates pitching ranks 16th with a 3.94 combined ERA. Wait, what? Yeah, that doesn’t sound “awful”, but when you break it down too since Skenes arrived, that number inflates to a 4.20 ERA, ranking 19th in baseball. So, not an insane a drop-off as you might have expected, but there have been problems, especially with the usage of the bullpen, and if those get resolved, I think you’ll be happier with the product.

Skenes has elevated a rotation that was already strong

Upon Skenes arrival, there wasn’t much issue with the starting rotation, a unit that was headlined by Jared Jones being brilliant and Mitch Keller coming along after a slow April.

Bailey Falter and Martin Perez were strong complimentary options and even Quinn Priester and Marco Gonzales were contributors. Now, Perez, Priester and Gonzales are all on the injured list, so Skenes has been needed more than ever, but despite the injuries, the unit has remained as steady as any unit in baseball.

The Pirates rotation currently ranks third in baseball in quality starts(32), meaning they get a quality start from their rotation about 49-percent of the time, so yeah, over time, that’ll help the previously mentioned bullpen issues.

Meanwhile, Skenes has three quality starts under his belt over five starts, flashing his brilliant fastball-slider combination, while also featuring his splinker that has fooled even the best hitters in opposing lineups.

Jones has had minor setbacks as of late, same with Falter, but Keller has come back to All-Star form after posting a 1.30 ERA in May and a 0.75 ERA so far in June.

If Skenes, Jones and Keller stay healthy *knock on all the wood you can*, they will keep the Pirates in any ballgame against any team, seriously, even the best teams in baseball, and it will only become contagious across the rest of the roster, and to be completely transparent, and if you’ve read this piece in its entirety, it already has.

Skenes has brought not only warranted hype around himself since arriving a month ago, but he’s given even the most casual of fans a reason to tune into Pirates baseball, because he is the type of player who changes a franchise for the better, and although its only a sample size of 30 days, it appears, statistically, that things are continuing to point up for your favorite team from the North Shore, and if there is anything I can continue to tell you about Skenes and the team overall, watch, enjoy and let everything play itself out, I am sure you’ll like the results.

Starter Spotlight: Meetup with Mikolas

6-11-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following a successful home stand, the Pirates head west for their first series against division rival St. Lous Cardinals. Starting for the Red Birds will be veteran Miles Mikolas, who is currently mired in the worst start of his major league career.

The two-time All Star Mikolas is currently 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA in 71 innings with 53 strikeouts and 14 walks. He hasn’t made a single start this season without allowing a run and has surrendered 3+ runs in 8 of his 13 games. Home runs have especially plagued him as he’s allowed 12 long balls thus far this year – tied for 7th most among all starting pitchers.

Mikolas has a decent mix of pitches which he uses with nearly even frequency at the top: a mid-80s slider, a low-90s sinker and low-90s fastball with a mid-70s curve and mid-80s changeup as his lesser-used secondary offerings. The focus should be on those main three of sinker, slider and fastball as they make up nearly 3/4 of his pitch usage.

He has been more effective with the sinker this year over last year, dropping the wOBA from .350 to .243. On the other hand, his slider has gone in the other direction as it had an oSLG of .375 in 2023 and has been CRUSHED with an oSLG of .620 thus far this season.

While he doesn’t rack up a ton of Ks, Mikolas will fill up the strike zone as his walk rate (4.7%) is among the best in baseball. Unfortunately for him, his whiff rate is the absolute WORST as hitters swing and miss at a 16.5% rate. No qualified starting pitcher in baseball avoids bats as infrequently as Mikolas this year.

Pirates hitters need to look to jump on Mikolas early if they get their pitch. He has a 72.1% first pitch strike rate – but when he gets behind in counts, opposing hitters have a .924 OPS after an 1-0 count and 1.278 after the count goes 2-0. His sinker is his only plus pitch currently as all of his other pitches have opponents batting .290 or higher against them.

Chance to get out ahead of a division rival early in the series and take advantage of a struggling starter.

#LetsGoBucs

Series Preview: Pirates (31-34) at Cardinals (31-33)

6-11-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With the new schedule format, this is the first time that the Pirates and Cardinals will face off this season.

Both teams may be at the bottom of the division looking up but each have been battling as of late with the Pirates notching critical series wins against the Dodgers and Twins and the Cardinals winning 5 of their last 8 series played.

6/11
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) –3-0, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 38 Ks/6 walks, 1.00 WHIP
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas (R) – 4-6, 71 IP, 5.32 ERA, 53 Ks/14 walks, 1.28 WHIP

6/12
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) –3-3, 68.1 IP, 3.69 ERA, 44 Ks/18 walks, 1.04 WHIP
Cardinals – Sonny Gray (R) – 7-4, 61.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 82 Ks/19 walks, 1.07 WHIP

6/13
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) –8-3, 79.2 IP, 3.16 ERA, 74 Ks/22 walks, 1.24 WHIP
Cardinals – Lance Lynn (R) – 2-3, 65.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 63 Ks/27 walks, 1.38 WHIP

Pirates:
Rowdy Tellez – For all the hate he’s received and probably deserved this season, Rowdy has never backed down or shown that he was frustrated by the crowds booing him. A few calls with his former coach, a few sessions working directly with Shelty, a quick trip north of the border and maybe his bat is turning things around. In June, he’s gone 9 for 17 with 3 doubles and a home run, posting a 1.461 OPS and – as he put it – putting pride back in the jersey he wears. He looks more comfortable and confident at the plate and that is HUGE for getting results in MLB. If Rowdy can be able to keep this level of production going, this team is a completely different animal.

Cardinals:
Nolan Gorman – Gorman had a slow start to the year with a 66 wRC+ through May 9th but has been on a TEAR since then with a 195 wRC+ and 10 of his 14 home runs coming in the last month alone. He’s been a BIG part of the Cardinals recent resurgence with a .291/.378/.674 slash line and the Cardinals posting a 16-11 record in that time.

Pirates:
Connor Joe – Call it overexposure or expected regression but Joe has not been looking good lately. In June, he has a .179/.281/.393 triple slash with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts. And while three of his five hits were pivotal and for extra-bases, he has come up short far more often than you would expect. He may need some time off to rest and reset so he can be the play-maker we’ve seen him be earlier this season.

Cardinals:
Nolan Arenado – How the mighty have fallen! Just 2 years removed from being an MVP finalist, Arenado currently has a .680 OPS on the season. In the same span of games where Gorman has been red hot, Arenado has been ice cold, posting a .204/.255/.337 slash line with just 4 extra base hits over 106 plate appearances since May 10th. He’s also dropped from an elite defender who won 10 straight Gold Gloves into a liability at third base, currently posting a UZR/150 if -4.4 and Outs Above Average of -2.

Key Injuries

Pirates:
Martín Pérez – Pérez has been on the shelf with a left groin strain since leaving his start against the Braves on May 26. He was reportedly scheduled to start throwing off a slope this past weekend but Ben Cherington advised in his weekly radio interview on Sunday that he will not return to the rotation this week. He likely should throw a bullpen session and potentially rejoin the team next week sometime.

Cardinals:
Willson Contreras – Contreras was the top offensive performer before he fractured his wrist during the game on May 7th. He won’t return during this series but will likely come back ahead of the next time these teams face-off July 2-4 in Pittsburgh.

Team Notes

Pirates Bullpen – Outside of former Pirates reliever Ben Heller, this bullpen has been legitimately good with a 1.15 ERA in June. If they can keep minimizing damage once the starter leaves the game, the rotation won’t have to do as much heavy lifting this season.

Divisional Matchup – The Cardinals are 49-31 against the Pirates since 2019 but the Bucs bested the Red Birds in 2023, winning 9 of their 13 games.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Three Series Wins in a Row

6-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates have done rather well of late. Really, I know it doesn’t feel that way when you read or listen to people discuss them but they have improved. The hitting isn’t a disaster, the bullpen is starting to at least have some pieces you can count on and the rotation, at least what’s left of it is as solid as anyone in the league can put forward.

I don’t know guys, feels to me like there are more positive things lately than negative.

Let’s Go.

1. It’s Not About Defending Shelton, it’s About Understanding Roles

In the same weekend, a weekend that saw the Pirates cap off their second straight series win against a team currently in the playoff picture, I saw Derek Shelton blamed for a whole bunch of General Manager created issues, or at the very least, General Manager problems to fix.

Derek Shelton is an idiot because…

…He Chose to Have a Bullpen Game Saturday – Umm, you realize the coach doesn’t set the roster right? His GM didn’t give him a starter.

…He Decided to NOT use His Good Bullpen Arms – Bednar had thrown in 4 of 5 games. Holderman, had thrown in 4 of 5 games. Ortiz was out because he went bulk Saturday. Mlodzinski had pitched 3 of 4 including opening on Saturday. The Medical staff and Oscar Marin, told Shelton and Team Execs the team would have to avoid all 4 of those guys in Sunday’s game. The GM knowing this, didn’t make a single move to reenforce the bullpen.

…He Pulled Jones Too Early – This kid who has been super good, didn’t have it (his words) on Sunday, and he still managed to fight through 5 innings. His 4-seam fastball in his last inning of work was sitting at 93-94. People, had Shelton not pulled him I’d be livid.

…He Shouldn’t Have Wasted David Bednar on Saturday, They Won by 4 – Well, yeah, they did win, and it wasn’t a save. Here’s the thing, it was 2-0 entering the bottom of the 8th. Bednar heated up fully to enter the game. To ALL 30 MLB teams, that counts as “using” Bednar. They had no way of knowing that Rowdy who has just started producing would do so again, let alone Michael Taylor to make it a 4 run cushion. Had he messed around and brought in Nicolas up 4 and Nicolas did what he’s done, Bednar probably ends up coming in anyhow to save it, and now Nicolas is down for Sunday too, which maybe you’d like, but you’d have seen Heller way earlier in the ballgame.

…How Did He Not Get Tossed, He Doesn’t Care – Nothing would have changed. The Umpires can see on the big screen (if they showed it in stadium which they didn’t on this particular play) that they were dead wrong and by rule if that isn’t a “reviewable” play, as this one apparently isn’t, they can’t change it unless someone in that group says they saw it different. Shelton gets himself run at times, he chose instead to listen and discuss this one. I get nothing out of a manager arguing himself into getting tossed most of the time, but I think I’d have liked to see him get animated here too. The umpires were wrong, it was clear they were wrong, and honestly, that usually means they’ll give you some room to put on a show for the crowd and your team. Probably don’t toss you unless you really cross a line. I could also see why looking at the bullpen setup, he felt he needed to ensure he stayed on the bench for this one. This dude simply isn’t a table flipper, it’s not his style, and sometimes faking a style is worse than just being who you are.

This is a small sampling, I’m stopping here because this is enough to illustrate the point, not cause I’m out of material. You’ll note there’s not a single defense of any of these things that says Derek Shelton is smart, you’re dumb for questioning him. There is plenty to get on him about, but I’m not going to blame him for doing everything he can to make a bad situation work, and win 4 of 6 in the process.

We can have really good and meaningful discussions about things Shelton does wrong, or at least things we should question. I wish we would, but until fans start understanding who decides what, this type of stuff is the primary takeaway for me.

A lot of this for me is in the Why Gary Hates Bullpen Games Handbook. Glad they got the series win, hate what it does to the team, and for more than a couple days. This will prompt more swaps, and many of the options aren’t much better.

That won’t be Shelton’s fault either.

2. Braxton Ashcraft Promoted to AAA Indianapolis

Braxton Ashcraft was added to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule-5 Draft. He was in this position because he had Tommy John in 2021, missed all of 2022, and pitched in 3 levels last year as he recovered. The stuff is so real, and so filthy, there was no way Braxton would squeak through the Rule-5, but the Pirates also had to feel if nothing else they’d potentially be able to still get some bullpen help from him. Again, the stuff is real, and you don’t get added to the 40-man if the team sees no path that has you filling some role on the MLB roster if need be during the season.

He’s absolutely blossoming in AA Altoona and the Pirates having stretched him out to 6 or 7 innings now, felt it appropriate to get him up to AAA on the doorstep. It’s clear the Bucs are in need of another starter they can call on.

He’s been so good, a big part of me wanted the team to pull Ashcraft from his start on Friday for Altoona and bring him to MLB directly from AA for a spot start Saturday. Who knows if they still win that game, who knows if he goes long enough to change the chemistry of the pen we dealt with on Sunday, but he’s been so good I saw it at an option.

This promotion tells me the team feels much the same.

I always thought we’d see Ashcraft get a cup of coffee in 2024, now I feel we’re going to see him pitch meaningfully at some point. When he does, man, this team will introduce yet another starting pitcher built like a horse who can touch 100 and has a penchant for the strikeout.

Next year, his name will be added to the mix of guys who will compete for a rotation spot in Spring. Johan Oviedo will be back in that mix, Priester will still be around, Jones, Skenes, Keller, Falter and before you get carried away and start suggesting they trade so and so because they’re so deep. Stop and look around right now, did you see the rotation getting this thin, this year? And I mean once it got rolling, you certainly didn’t think they’d even have a 5 man rotation in Spring.

3. Rowdy? Really?

He’s 7 for his last 14 with a walk.

Look, if this changes your mind about Rowdy my guess is you haven’t been relentlessly beating on him, even as he earned your scorn. I was at the game Saturday, and I heard Rowdy get the boo birds early in that game, and in his second at bat, and then I heard the entire crowd turn on a dime when he hit one in the bushes.

I mean to tell you the guy behind me was telling his buddy he was going to stare at strike 3. Then he screamed “Fat F**k!” about 5 times trying to start a chant. This same dude, started a Rowdy-Rowdy-Rowdy chant not 10 seconds later.

That’s baseball, and that’s how quick it can change for people.

If he goes 0 for 4 in his next game, we’ll be right back to the boos and the DFA chatter.

I’m not even saying that to call anyone out, he’s been a terrible player and all those hits are nice recently, but he’s here for extra base hits and homeruns. That’s his job, if he does it, great, if he doesn’t, the pressure to move on will be back on the table before you can say his name 3 times.

I’ve been for weeks now hammering how much this team needs left handed contributions, and they aren’t in a position to turn their nose up at any they get. From anyone.

Say what you want about Rowdy, but he’s been a pro and his teammates were happier for him Saturday than he was for himself. To a man, this guy is popular in that room.

Now, how did he get better? I mean, let’s just pretend we know it’s permanent.

Turns out, he talked to his Dad and his go to coach, the guy who drafted him with the Blue Jays. He’d been working on adjustments and almost confusing himself at the plate but the advice he got and his approach since seeking advice has been to just revert entirely to what he used to do. What felt good when he was just a kid trying to make the Bigs.

Hey, stuff like that is cool, and it works sometimes. Most of the time, after an initial burst you tend to get right back to seeing why some of those adjustments were tried in the first place.

Look, I still don’t feel like Rowdy is good enough, but I can’t argue the team is better if he can play the part for a while, and the timing is great, Connor Joe is at least not as hot as he was, even as he continues to produce.

If you’re mad Rowdy hit because it keeps him on the team longer, man, that’s just not how I root. He could revert next week and this little stretch will be forgotten, by everyone. Even Rowdy himself would acknowledge that. When he does it though, hey, if you’re in Black and Gold, I want you to succeed.

4. Concurrent Timelines

You can say you hate hearing about the future with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Lots of people feel that way. It’s just something you get tired of hearing about in lieu of you know, winning now.

Well, right now, the Pirates have two timelines and they’re moving parallel to each other. They have the current MLB team, and they have the future MLB team. To be fair, they always have both of these timelines, but like a Solar Eclipse, for once, the Pirates have both lining up and capable of winning.

This team can win now, and in the future. This isn’t a last gasp at a shot to get in, this is the first in what looks to be a long stretch of teams that have a shot.

This is despite their soft spots, their coaching, their cheapness. Despite all that, they have built something that will compete, now and into the end of the decade. I shouldn’t even claim there’s an “end” before I start to see it form if I’m honest. Who am I to say they won’t have a killer rotation forming right under this one?

The only times these timelines cross into each other’s reality is when they make trades, suffer season ending injuries, extend a player, or promote a prospect to the Show.

Every time you make an adjustment like that, either forced due to injury or in an effort to fortify the now timeline, you change the future timeline a bit. And the more “Now” competes, the harder it is to improve. Meaning it becomes harder for a youngster to break through. It becomes harder to be patient while they try.

You can choose to again, not care about 2025 or 2028 or whatever year you think is the typical Pirate fan great shining city on the hill, but most of the pieces that make up our current reality, could absolutely be part of this thing in those years too.

I understand the sentiment that looking forward shouldn’t be a team’s priority. But if I’m overseeing a rotation like this and have team control of every single one of them through the end of the decade, I’m sorry, I’m not easily selling a player I think won’t start helping me until 2026, that still matters quite a bit, for this group of players.

Like it or not, this team always thinks about the future. In fact, I bet they’ve already done some theoretical math about how much Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller might cost in 2028 if they just let arbitration play out with the youngsters. You could easily be looking at 60 million right there, I might even be light.

This team’s payroll will go up naturally, just through the process baseball uses to give team’s absolute control of young players. Next year, they’ll crack 100 Million. They’ll sign a couple vets again, and some of their youngsters will make more money. They’ll crack 120-130 Million by 2026 and Bob Nutting pathetic record payrolls will come too.

When you want a 25 million dollar deal next year for a guy and rightly claim they could afford it, you’re damn right. But all that stuff I just mentioned is in their mind.

Again, you’re right, it shouldn’t be. It simply will be though. They can mitigate this by paying a little more now to get some extensions done with guys like they’ve already done, but at some point, even this owner will have to pay, just to play the bare minimum arbitration game.

This is stuff I think about when some suggest moving 4 or 5 top 10 prospects for Luis Robert Jr. It’s not that I think a player like this couldn’t push them over the top and really make them competitors, it’s that a move like that is a definitive turn. If they pull a move like that, in my mind this becomes a window as opposed to a pitching factory. Both or neither could ultimately work with this owner so I’m in no way telling you one is right and one is wrong.

Just because I think about this stuff doesn’t mean I’m locked in on there being only one way to go. It’s sure worth more than some silly they are or aren’t all in conversation though. I can make a pretty good case for or against making a deal like this.

Want to know my biggest concern for THIS year? It’s being in position, and then Jones and Skenes are either gassed or held back by innings counts. There aren’t moves that could fix that, and if those two aren’t what they are, a Wild Card Series suddenly doesn’t seem quite as appealing.

I guess that’s thinking of the future too.

5. What to Do About Jack and Henry

Man, the season has not been kind to Jack Suwinski and Henry Davis. For different reasons, but none of that matters now, they need these guys.

Henry Davis is in the Major Leagues right now for one big reason, they thought they saw what they needed to see in the minors. Yeah injuries play a role, yes, Grandal’s age and injury history play a role, but more than any other factor, Derek Shelton himself referenced, Henry had done everything they asked him to do.

Know what? He looks worse to me if that’s possible. The Pirates essentially told him to go down there, get his timing back on the fastball. Well, he did, in AAA. He reverted his stance to a wide open crouch. It worked, in AAA, for a little bit.

In the Bigs his problem has been and continues to be, he’s too out in front of everything. He’s pulling sliders off the plate away. He’s pulling 98 MPH fastballs foul to the pull side by 30 feet. His batting stance prevents him from catching high heat, see there’s this thing called physics and Henry has to physically pop up to have a prayer of even line drive level bat plane on a heater in the top third of the zone. I’m not even talking about up at the very very top.

Worse, this team watched that in AAA, against guys who can’t control that pitch. Watched him take them for balls or belt the ones that missed low and called it a done deal. They looked at that stance and thought to themselves, hey, on our own baseball team there are about 7 pitchers he couldn’t touch, but he’s ready.

The talent is in there, but I can’t sit here and say he’ll get the help he needs at this level and I don’t think they’ve shown they’ll recognize the issue at the MiLB level. This is going to take a real shift in a hitter’s mentality and stance if you ask me. And no, I’m nowhere near giving up on him, even if it doesn’t happen this year.

If Joey Bart or Jason Delay are deemed “ready” and Henry is still hitting like this, I would absolutely not rule out another trip down. I mean they pinch hit Grandal for him the other night in a big spot, if that doesn’t tell him to be a hero before he acts like one I’m not sure what will.

Jack just about has to stick because Ji Hwan Bae is hurt. Unless the Pirates want to try something like Matt Gorski. He’s a use it or lose it player and I could see giving him a shot, so long as you have a 40-man casualty you don’t care about. The Power is real and he can field the position well. He’ll also strike out a ton too, always has.

Jack hits homeruns, and that’s his appeal, he also struggles to be productive for huge stretches. I will say he has a much better eye than Gorski, but I can’t say he’s a better bet to get some dingers from and decent CF play.

Jack has done it at this level though, and they’ll do just about everything they can to make a go of it with him. To me, I’d send Jack back down, really get him going and give Gorski a little run. It’s not like Michael Taylor should lock him out from getting some games. If it doesn’t work out, hey, he was gonna be an MiLB free agent anyway. Just like Bligh Madris, you see if you maybe have a late bloomer and make a call.

I could see the team keep Henry and Jack in the bigs for a few more weeks here pretty easy, but these are two spots Catcher and Left handed outfielder I could see become deadline targets if they don’t start to produce soon.

Starter Spotlight: Bailey Ober

6-9-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Pirates are riding high this home-stand, winning 4 of the first 5 games and looking for a chance at a series sweep today – a feat the Bucs have been unable to achieve since the opening series in Miami. Taking the bump for the Twins and trying to prevent that sweep is Bailey Ober.

After a strong April, in which Ober posted a 1.48 ERA over 4 solid starts and 24.1 innings, he has heavily regressed with a poor 5.45 ERA since the start of May over 7 games and 36.1 innings.

Like the other starting pitcher named Bailey, Ober has an elite extension – which helps his low-velocity play up a bit more against opponents. Unlike Falter, however, Ober has struggled to get similar results as he enters play today with a 4.94 ERA – one of the worst among qualified starters – 60 strikeouts, 16 walks and a 1.13 WHIP in 62 innings pitched this year.

His arsenal consists of a low-90s fastball, high-80s cutter, low-80s changeup and a low-80s slider.

He’s steadily cut his fastball usage over the years as it has become less and less effective. Opponents this year are batting .341 and slugging .648 against Ober’s heater. On the other hand, his cutter has an wOBA of .317 and his changeup is .219.

Ober has plus control with a career 5.2% walk rate and strikes out about a quarter of opposing hitters.

But when batters put the ball in play, Ober has gotten a bit of luck. Despite his 10.3% barrel rate and 28.7% ground ball numbers, his BABIP of .262 is well below league average.

Ober has some reverse splits with righties performing considerably better against him than lefties as 8 of his 11 home runs allowed have been surrendered to RHH.

He looks to get ahead in counts early with a 68.1% first pitch strike rate but opponents only swing at that first offering 37.1% of the time. Pirates hitters need to be ready and aggressive when they see their pitch.

Look for Bucs batters to hunt the high fastballs early in counts. Nick Gonzales is slugging .857 against fastballs this year and didn’t get an RBI in yesterday’s match so he may be itching to get back at it against Ober today – especially with a bump up to the 5 spot in the lineup.

Get to Ober early. Attack mistakes, avoid off-speed stuff and take advantage of an ineffective pitcher and a team struggling to score runs.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Starter Spotlight: Simeon Woods Richardson

6-8-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Bullpen game on the Pirates side today facing the Twins and their young righty in Simeon Woods Richardson.

Woods Richardson made a spot start for Minnesota in each of the previous two seasons before finally breaking in as part of the big league club’s rotation. He’s made nine starts compiling 44.1 innings of work, 36 strikeouts, 11 walks with 3.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

With a three pitch arsenal, Woods Richardson features a low-90s fastball, high-80s slider and low-80s changeup with an occasional mid-70s curve thrown in as well.

His slider is by far his best pitch, ranking 2nd highest Run Value/100 per BaseballSavant (minimum 50 plate appearances) with opponents hitting a measly .161 against the offering.

On the other hand, his fastball (.258 oBA) and curve (.321) have been eminently more hittable with highest exit velocity as well compared to the slider.

Woods Richardson has posted some reverse splits as right handed hitters are faring better against him (.670 OPS) than lefties (.546) but has been dominant across the board first time through the order – 1.77 ERA and .455 OPS.

In his last outing, he only threw 66 pitches – his lowest total in any start this season – lasting 4.1 innings and allowing 3 earned runs – so the Twins have shown a willingness to pull him early if they feel it’s needed. That could be crucial with the Bucs tossing a bullpen game on their end.

Pirates hitters need to lay off that slider and focus on his elevated fastball or hanging curve to do the most damage. They have a chance to take the series today with a young, soft-tossing starter going for the Twins.

Let’s Go Bucs!

The Pirates are Winning Baseball Games, Despite Their Warts

6-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Lately, it seems most of the people covering the Pirates are more interested in telling fans how they’re supposed to feel than they are actually covering what the baseball team is doing.

This is a team that has had a fatal flaw just about all season long, and the target has moved as the season progressed. They were firing on just about all cylinders to start the season, and even then they were leaving a ton of guys on base.

Then the bats went ice cold in unison, even as the starting pitching was becoming a storyline.

It felt like the the bullpen started malfunctioning, at least beyond the couple guys who struggled from the jump right as the bats came back to life, but in reality, they struggled even as they had no leads to protect. Essentially they got cover.

Oh, it was brought up, but it also never mattered as much as the fact they were pitching in a 4-0 ballgame already.

Right now, they’ve minimized those issues, and for the most part, circled the wagons with that excellent starting pitching. The type of pitching that allows a 4 hit, 3 run attack to be a winning effort.

That’s great, it’s also sure to not be sustainable. I don’t say that to suggest any one of the starters are going so suddenly stop pitching well, it’s more to suggest MLB is hard, and you’re going to have to be a more complete team than they are to win more games.

The Pirates are 3 games under .500, a half game out of the last Wild Card Spot.

And yes, last place in their division. They’re also a half game out of 2nd place in the NL Central.

I’m not sitting here telling you that this is all peaches and cream, it’s not. They’re critically thin on starting pitching due to injury and innings limits. They have gotten precious little production from their lefty power guys.

They are having a hard time getting Henry to graduate. The Hitting coach is at the very least not proving effective in helping guys at the MLB level when they fall into disrepair.

The bullpen is showing signs of forming a decent “win ramp” with 7-8-9, but role players are being asked to do to much, and struggling to wear daddy’s shoes.

They still strike out too much, and Runners in Scoring Position to just about anyone but Nick Gonzales seems to become a tight butthole moment.

It’s not a perfect team, and it won’t be a perfect team by the end of the season either.

I’m a little disturbed though reading the stuff I’ve seen lately out there.

Like, I just told you in a pretty straightforward way that this is a last place team in their division. I’m not hiding from that fact, I’m not pretending you should cheer for it. I’m just providing context and using, oh, lets call it 40 years of baseball fandom to remember what congested standings like this tend to play out like.

I’m looking at a team that’s had their “dependable” bullpen guys fail, and fail big together for weeks. A team that has gotten nowhere near the production they expected from their expected superstar short stop. A team that spent a month without their gold glove 3B, who does add to the lineup, even if he isn’t hitting homeruns.

A team that has lost 2 opening day starting rotation members to the IL and has onboarded 2 very young rookie starters.

A team that hasn’t even played two members of their division yet, two teams that happen to be a half a game in front of them.

More than anything, I see a team with absolutely, undeniably, elite starting pitching. The absolute hardest thing to acquire this team has, and they’ve got even more coming, while having half a decade of control of everyone here doing the job right now.

Look, I don’t expect celebration that your team is very much so an average MLB team right this second. I’m just saying, this shouldn’t be seen as some one and done run, this is just the first year they’ve put together enough to be around all year.

I also don’t think we need to act like a team that very much so has room for improvement, even if it only came from Oneil Cruz locking in a bit more, Henry Davis starting to look like at least a once in a while contributor, and a bullpen guy or two joining the party. That’s not a lot to ask, it’s also not enough for some deep run, they’d absolutely have to add to see that play out, but man, it’s just not depressing, not to me anyway.

I’ve seen more despair this year than I did in 2021 when the team was all but shooting for 100 losses.

To me, take a step back, really look at this team.

You will see warts. You will see places to improve. But you’ll see some good things taking shape too.

This is going to be a dogfight all season long. Even if this team adds a big piece, they’ll still be relying on youngsters to keep taking steps. There is no path for this team to become some monstrous juggernaut offensively, but there’s a good chance only 2 or 3 teams could touch their top 3 starters.

Yeah, last place, but I think it’s fair to say, it can be acknowledged without claiming anyone who sees some reason for optimism has loser mentality. I’m not sure I need the GM to jump on some weird patch to a hole that isn’t a great fit either.

Like Harold Ramirez. Very little power, decent average typically, not so much this year. DFA’d by the Rays, can play some 1B, corner OF, and DH. He’s right handed too.

Is he better than Rowdy Tellez? Probably. But is he better than Connor Joe, Edward Olivares? Probably not. Well, it’s at least debatable, he certainly has less power than either of them. Maybe he’s Taylor’s replacement! Sure, but that probably means Jack is your center fielder most games. Unless you want to play Reynolds there again.

See, point is, I can make an argument that he improves something, even if it’s just their bench, but man, I’d much prefer a lefty, and I’d prefer even more he provided some power. I’m open to additions, I just want the additions to be absolute improvements, or at least potentially. Call me crazy.

Some of the teams in this franchise’s history that first learned how to win are my favorites to look back on. I guess at this point in my life I’m ready to relish that a bit more than I was in the past. I’m more accepting that the growth and the setbacks and the highs along with the lows all go together and they’re all necessary aspects to the goal.

I dunno, fan however you want to. I’m pretty pleased with where they are, and where I think they’re headed. Feel like they’re on a good path to be in position to add.

If that makes me a loser, ok.

I bet I’m a loser enjoying a fun baseball season a lot more than you.

Starter Spotlight: Joe Ryan

6-7-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Despite the loss in the loss yesterday, the Pirates overall have been hitting RHP better of late – a wRC+ since June 1 – and they’ll be facing another challenge in today’s starter for the visiting Minnesota Twins: Joe Ryan.

Ryan had an ELITE start to his 2023 season, going 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 70:10 K-to- walk rate in his first 60 innings pitched. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off and over his final 100.2 innings, he slumped to a 5.90 ERA despite maintaining his very strong strikeout (29.5%) and walk (5.6%) rates in that span.

This year, he is off to a less dominant start (3.38 ERA in 72 innings) but he is still a very legitimate control pitcher in that rotation with 77 strikeouts to 11 walks so far this season.

Ryan features a low-90s fastball, a high-80s splitter, high-80s slider and low 80s sweeper. He utilizes his above average extension and pinpoint control to mix speeds and eye level against hitters as he works high heat and low off-speed stuff.

His big issue last year was allowing home runs at an alarming rate as his 32 surrendered were the tied for the 7th most in MLB while his HR/9 of 1.78 would have been 4th worst rate among qualified pitchers (his 161.2 IP fell one out short). And that issue has continued into 2024 with 11 long-balls thus far this season and his 1.38 HR/9 ranking 16th in MLB – though 4 of those 11 came in his most recent start against the Houston Astros.

When you throw a lot of strikes, eventually you’re going to get hitters to get the barrel to a few of them. And Ryan’s 10.7% barrel rate is among the worst in baseball, ranking 3rd highest among qualified starters.

Ryan’s fastball has been his main offering and has accounted for much of the damage with 5 round trippers off the pitch so far this year and sparked 19 of his home runs allowed last season. Opponents have also teed off on his lesser-used slider, which has an oBA of .333 and oSLG of .600.

Key to victory for the Pirates is looking for that fastball early in counts because that first pitch matters. When Ryan gets ahead of batters 0-1 in counts, opponents have a .467 OPS compared to a ridiculous 1.218 OPS after a 1-0 count.

With the Twins coming off getting swept in the Bronx and outscored 22-11 in those contests, they’ll be looking to get back on the winning track. Don’t let Ryan get comfortable and get early run support for Mitch today.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Series Preview: Twins (33-29) at Pirates (29-33)

6-7-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The AL and NL Central were both considered to be down divisions as we entered 2024, primarily because none of the leagues “super” teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, Braves, you know, the stacked teams this year, reside in these divisions. At least on paper.

The Guardians are setting the pace in the AL Central and their 40 wins has them good for second best record in the entire American League. The Brewers have separated themselves a bit in the NL, and their 36 wins have them good for 3rd best record in the Senior Circuit.

All around baseball, there is this glut of teams at or around .500. They all boast being a game or so in or out of a wild card spot. They all boast being within shouting distance of the top wild card spot. In fact, there are only 5 teams in baseball you can honestly say have no chance at being in the .500/wild card scene. The Angels, A’s, White Sox, Marlins and Rockies. Those, are your “sellers” if there are any this early on in a campaign. The way this league is right now, there are 6 teams who are in, will be in, just jockeying for position. 5 most likely all the way out and 19 teams all in the bloated middle.

That’s where the Twins and Pirates both reside, and that’s the lay of the land as we sit here with exactly 100 baseball games left in the 2024 regular season.

I know Pirates fans want deals now, but 19 teams are out there, largely in the same boat. That is an environment that makes the few sellers feel like that scrub 4th starter might be the Hope Diamond.

The Pirates haven’t even played two teams in their own division yet, arguably the two teams that are likely definitively worse than them, even observing today’s standings.

Like it or not, it’s just too early for deals. At least impact deals. Winnable series here, the Twins record is built on beating the White Sox, Angels and White Sox again from April 22nd through May 1st. (Assist to Josh Booth here) Aside from that, they’ve been largely below the line. Not that the Pirates can afford to throw stones.

6-7
Twins – Joe Ryan (R) – 4-4, 72 IP, 3.38 ERA, 77 Ks/11 walks, 1.01 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 7-3, 73 IP, 3.42 ERA, 66 Ks/20 walks, 1.22 WHIP

6-8
Twins – Simeon Woods Richardson (R) – 2-0, 44.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 36 Ks/11 walks, 1.11 WHIP
Pirates – TBD

6-9
Twins – Bailey Ober (R) – 5-4, 62 IP, 4.94 ERA, 60 Ks/16 walks, 1.13 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) – 4-5, 69.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 76 Ks/15 walks, 1.01 WHIP

Twins:
The Twins only have one player with an OPS north of .800 and he’s on a bit of a downturn, so I’m turning to an old friend for the Twins Who’s Hot, Carlos Santana. I’ll pause here so you can craft your reply about how you would have signed him as opposed to Rowdy Tellez. After a very cold start, Carlos has really turned it on, his last 15 games he’s slashing .286/.412/.476 with a couple dingers.

Pirates:
My guess is you won’t want to hear about Rowdy Tellez in his last 7 games hitting .350, so I’ll pick another. Nick Gonzales has simply been incredible. In his last 15 games he’s slashing .356/.409/.559 with 2 dingers and 16 RBI. He’s producing right in heart of the Pirates order and he’s doing it in all situations. He’s just as happy being a table setter as he is knocking runs in and man, this is great news for this Buccos team.

Twins:
Byron Buxton, man it’s always been about health with him. My god the production when he’s healthy though. We’re talking 19 homeruns in 61 games, 28 homeruns in 92 games, 17 more in 85, so here he is 44 games in and he’s only hit 3, with a .640 OPS. His last 15 games, .163/.226/.327 with 2 homeruns. Let’s hope he stays cold for 3 more games.

Pirates:
Connor Joe has gone through a bit of a rough patch lately. In his past 15 he’s slashing .228/.333/.298. Not tragic, but important to note especially as he’s seen more starts against right handed pitching the numbers have fallen off a bit. I don’t say this to advise he stop getting playing time, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Key Injuries

Well, for the Pirates its clearly Quinn Priester and Martin Perez. Those two going down has thrown up a black hole for the 5th starter. My hope is that Perez caught his groin situation early and is able to return when he’s eligible from the IL on the 12th and the Bucs only have to fill this spot once, but having no depth can’t stand, the very real chore of controlling Jones and Skenes inning output will have to start sooner than later.

Roster juggling moved Ryan Borucki to the 60-day IL, Mike Burrows is still not throwing competitive baseballs, Braxton Ashcraft is shoving in AA Altoona, I almost wouldn’t be shocked to see them sneak him up to AAA and get him ready for his shot. Domingo German has looked awful in AAA, and you won’t see them turn to him unless it’s a long term need.

What To Watch

Henry Davis is going to get my eyes quite a bit. I see the swing change, and he looks more comfortable with it. I also still see he’s too out in front of way too many pitches and that is simply going to do nothing but limit his success in my mind. Really need to see him start putting more balls in the air.

And of course Saturday. How the Pirates handle that day will be telling, and hopefully they escape it without completely killing an already teetering part of the team. Bluntly, I don’t see a great option here. I could see them turn to Luis Ortiz and maybe ask him for 3 or 4. We could see them make a move to bring Josh Fleming back up potentially, but there simply isn’t much there. German and Ashcraft just pitched last night. So yeah, sounds to me like an old fashioned bullpen game, and again, those haven’t exactly gone great for our side.

Thing is, they can’t really afford to just kill anyone because they’re running out of fresh arms to call on even for the pen.