Series Preview: Pirates (26-30) at Blue Jays (26-29)

5-31-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

We are just about a third of the way done with the 2024 MLB season and the Pittsburgh Pirates make their way north of the border to end the month of May and welcome the month of June as they face off with the Toronto Blue Jays in a three-game series.

The Pirates enter this series off the heels of a double-header split against the Detroit Tigers, which saw Jared Jones and Paul Skenes have very different outings against a Tigers team that the Blue Jays saw earlier in the week, losing three-of-four to the Tigers.

Toronto does enter this series coming off a series sweep over the Chicago White Sox, winning each game by two-runs or more. The Blue Jays have played the White Sox six times in the past week, winning five of those six games and six of their past 10.

The Pirates have a 5-5 record in their past 10 and an 11-12 record in the month of May, so game one of this series will determine if the Pirates can manage a .500 month. The Blue Jays will finish May under .500 no matter what, entering the May 31 series opener at 11-13.

Toronto has played .500 baseball at Roger’s Centre this season at 12-12, while Pittsburgh enters the series with a 14-15 record away from the North Shore.

Both teams enter on very similar trajectories as well as being very similar statistically, separated by mere decimals in batting average and on-base percentage. Pittsburgh and Toronto are also separated by four runs scored on the season and three homers on the year, so the records aren’t the only indication that this could be an evenly matched series.

The Blue Jays enter this series having won their last eight games versus the Pirates, all games in which the Pirates failed to score three or more runs. The Pirates last win versus the Blue Jays came on August 11, 2017, with the previous matchup between the teams coming May 7 last season, a 10-1 victory for the Blue Jays.

Toronto leads the all-time series 14-7, holding a 6-3 record all-time versus Pittsburgh.

05/31
Pirates – Bailey Falter(LHP) – 3-2, 58.1 IP, 2.86 ERA, 33 Ks/14 walks, 0.98 WHIP
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios(RHP) – 5-4, 67.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 53 Ks/18 walks, 1.10 WHIP

06/01
Pirates – Mitch Keller(RHP)– 6-3, 67.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 58 Ks/19 walks, 1.24 WHIP
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi(LHP) – 2-4, 61.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 61 Ks/13 walks, 1.20 WHIP

06/02
Pirates – TBD – Editor’s note – Likely to be Quinn Priester
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt (RHP) – 5-6, 60.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 56 Ks/25 walks, 1.43 WHIP

Blue Jays: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had quite the 2024 campaign, posting an .801 OPS with 5 HR and 25 RBIs, but he has been as hot as he’s been all season coming into this series versus Pittsburgh. Guerrero Jr. is slugging .607 over his past seven games, including 3 RBIs on 11 hits. He also registered a walk in all three games in the Blue Jays previous series versus the Chicago White Sox, so he’ll be a tough out for the Pirates pitching staff.

Pirates: DH Andrew McCutchen
Andrew McCutchen had a slow start to 2024, but the month of May was more than kind to McCutchen, who registered six home runs and 12 RBIs over his past 30 games, including being a triple away from the cycle in the second-half of a double-header versus the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. An .843 OPS in May should be a nice springboard for McCutchen in his first series in June versus Toronto.

Blue Jays: OF Kevin Kiermaier
Kevin Kiermaier was once considered one of the better center fielders in baseball, but 2024 has not been kind to Kiermaier, who is sporting a .589 OPS and just one homer on the season. The last seven games haven’t been kind to Kiermaier either, as a .353 slugging and only two hits in 17 at-bats suggest Kiermaier’s struggles could continue against a strong Pirates starting rotation.

Pirates: OF Michael. A Taylor
Michael A. Taylor was a solid defensive addition to the Pirates outfield in the 2024 off-season, and his hot start with the bat was impressive, but he has since cooled off considerably offensively. Taylor is batting .111 over the past 15 days in nine games, dipping his season batting average to .203. Taylor has also been out of the lineup more often with the introduction of Ji-hwan Bae back to the big league roster, but one would like to see Taylor’s offensive production improve, although it’ll be a tough ask versus Toronto.

Key Injuries

Toronto Blue Jays:

1B Joey Votto: 7-day IL, RP Bowden Francis: 15-day IL, 1B Peyton Williams: 7-day IL, SP Yariel Rodriguez: 15-day IL, 2B T.J. Brock: 7-day IL

Pittsburgh Pirates:

C Joey Bart: 10-day IL, SP Martin Perez: 15-day IL

Who To Watch

The pitching staffs for both squads are an interesting watch here. Toronto’s staff enters with a 4.22 ERA while Pittsburgh’s enters with a 4.03, so this series could be a matter of which team’s offense finds success against the opposing starter and getting the game to the bullpens, both of which are in the bottom-five in baseball in ERA. That will likely be the determining factor, but both offense’s come in having success as of late, so watch the top players like Bryan Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero Jr and others to make the difference in this tightly contested inter-league matchup.

Five-Up, Five-Down: May

5-30-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

I hope you all enjoyed the April edition of Five-Up, Five-Down, it was a fun piece to write and fun to highlight the players who are playing good baseball and giving reasons why the guys who aren’t can come out of their respective funks.

Unlike April, May saw plenty of call-ups, moments we’ll never forget, and some players who didn’t have great starts finally pick up some steam on their 2024 campaigns.

Let’s not delay and get right to the players that were up in and the players that were down in what was a wild month of May for Pirates baseball.

Who’s Up?

Paul Skenes

If I didn’t start this list with Paul Skenes, folks, check my pulse.

May was highlighted by the highly anticipated debut of Paul Skenes, who received the call to make his MLB debut on May 11 versus the Chicago Cubs. I was in attendance, as many of you reading may have been as well, and I am sure you’d all agree that it was an unforgettable moment for Skenes and fans alike.

Skenes was highly regarded by many scouts and MLB pundits as the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasberg, and so far, he’s looked the part. Through 22.0 IP in his first four career starts, Skenes has a 2.45 ERA, 30 SO, a 0.91 WHIP and a 68-percent strike rate, pairing that strike rate with a 35.7-percent strikeout rate and 33.7-percent whiff rate, so yeah, he’s looked every bit as good as expected.

What’s been ever more impressive for Skenes is the use of his secondary pitches alongside his elite fastball, posting a .067 opponent batting average with the splinker, a pitch he used to strikeout four Detroit Tigers hitters in his final May start on Wednesday.

Skenes has also done a phenomenal job inducing ground-balls through his first four starts, inducing a 52.1-percent ground-ball rate. Pair that with a 6.3-percent barrel rate, and Skenes is not only fanning opposing hitters at an insane pace, but he is also not allowing much hard contact either.

If Skenes can continue to develop the splinker and slider combination, a combination that is already considered above-average at worst, then Skenes will have no issues fooling opposing hitters over the course of his MLB career.

Now it will be difficult to expect Skenes to continue of such a torrid pace over the course of an entire season, but he’s quickly cemented himself among baseball’s best as far as starting pitchers are concerned.

Nick Gonzales

Our first two-timer on the “up” category is here, and his name is Nick Gonzales.

I highlighted the hot start Gonzales was off to in AAA in the April edition of 5-Up, 5-Down, forecasting a potential call-up as Jared Triolo and Alika Williams continued to struggle in the middle infield.

Gonzales received the call-up a day before Skenes would debut, and he’s since become a RBI machine in the middle of the Pirates batting order.

Through 64 at-bats, Gonzales is slashing .313/.375/.547/.922 with three home runs and 16 RBIs, and he’s paired that with a much better walk-to-strikeout ratio, finding the free pass five times while striking out 18 times, an improvement from his six walks and 36 strikeouts from last season.

Speaking of last season, Gonzales has nearly matched his extra base hit total from 2023, tallying eight extra base hits over the course of May while having 11 all of last season. Gonzales was considered one of the best pure hitters of the draft class of 2021, and it seems as though he is finally finding his footing at the plate and what works for him.

Gonzales has also demolished right-handed pitching, having a .988 OPS versus righties and posting 12 of his 16 RBIs versus right-handers. In 16 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Gonzales has collected 11 RBIs and posted an OPS of .888, so its safe to say he’s taken advantage of the opportunities presented to him.

As long as Gonzales keeps the strikeouts down and continues to plate runners, he’ll be just fine and he’s already become quite the early-to-midseason addition from the minor leagues.

Edward Olivares

Edward Olivares may not get a ton of playing time, but lately, he’s made the most of his time he gets in the lineup.

Olivares has been what I would call a fine addition via a trade with the Kansas City Royals this past offseason, and throughout the offseason, I expressed his xHR rate a ton because I thought it offered some power potential for Olivares heading into 2024.

He homered twice in the month of May in 52 plate appearances, adding three doubles along the way while slashing .250/.286/.423/.709, an although those may not be eye-popping numbers, they are numbers that present exactly what Olivares is for the Pirates, a mostly reliable right-handed fourth outfielder who dominates versus lefties.

Olivares has a .778 OPS versus lefties, with four of his five homers on the season coming against southpaws, and his 12 RBIs with runners in scoring position should impress you as well.

No one, including myself, is asking Olivares to be more than what he is, it would be nice if he became more, but he’s been a fine addition to the outfield mix for Pittsburgh and should continue to get looks moving forward after a solid May.

Mitch Keller

Remember when people were screaming, or well, typing that the Pirates made a mistake extending Mitch Keller this off-season? Well, most of that noise is gone now thanks to an absolutely elite May from Keller.

Keller’s April did not meet standards to be fair, seeing a 4.98 ERA over 34.1 IP, but once the calendar turned to May, so did Keller’s fortunes.

A 1.30 ERA is just the start for the success Keller saw in May, as he struck out 19 over his 27.2 IP, including a five-strikeout evening in a complete game effort versus the LA Angels to begin his May campaign.

Keller allowed four total earned runs the entire month of May, and to highlight how impressive that is, he gave up four earned runs four times in his first six starts, so its safe to say Keller found something that wasn’t working and erased it from his game.

Arguably the biggest reason for his success in May came from opponent batting average, which dropped from .274 in April to .212 in May. His WHIP also dropped from a 1.48 on the season from his final April start to a 1.24 in his final May start, a measure of improvement across the board for Keller.

Along with Jared Jones and Skenes, Keller is very much apart of one of the best pitching trios in baseball, and as long as they stay healthy, there is no reason to see the trio fall from grace anytime soon.

Colin Holderman

You liking that Daniel Vogelbach Mets trade yet?

Colin Holderman has been the most consistent reliever the Pirates have had thus far in 2024 and honestly, its not even close. Holderman began the season on the IL after an impressive 2023, but he’s picked up right where he left off last season and some, currently sitting with a 0.52 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the season.

May was just a continuation of his brilliance out of the bullpen, as he didn’t allowed an earned run over 10.2 innings, striking out 15 hitters while allowing only four hits. An opposing batting average of .111 also helped his performance, and an opposing batting average of .176 with runners in scoring on the position suggests Holderman will continue to be used in high leverage situations late in ballgames.

Holderman continues to remain around the top of multiple statistical categories for relievers in the National League, and with his play as of late, especially in May, there’s no reason to expect that to change anytime soon.

Who’s Down?

Jack Suwinski

The Jack Suwinski experience has surely been well, something.

Suwinski was optioned to AAA Indianapolis on May 23 and truly, it was no surprise after his performance in May, which saw him slash .170/.264/.319/.583 with 20 strikeouts over the course of the month, so a reset was much needed for him.

Suwinski’s struggles can boil down to a multitude of things, but his struggles hitting fastballs are arguably the biggest of the struggles. Suwinski’s batting average versus fastballs in a measly .147, and you’d like to think that means he obliterating off-speed offerings, but a .129 average would suggest otherwise.

Much like Henry Davis, who was also optioned to AAA Indianapolis for his struggles at the plate, its all about getting his bearings back for Suwinski, who has shown 20-plus home run potential and has the light tower power to hit 30 homers at some point in his career, its just a matter of adjusting when needed, and we just haven’t seen that from Suwinski just yet in 2024.

Michael A. Taylor

Taylor, much like Olivares, was an off-season addition for Pittsburgh, acquired via free agency during Spring Training this year.

The veteran center fielder got off to a great start for the Pirates, flashing some power along with his above-average defense, and although the defense has remained solid, and always will, his bat has seen better days.

Taylor hit .125 in the month of May, including starting the month on a five-game hitless streak and ending the month with only one hit in his final eight appearances. His lone home run came during Skenes debut versus the Cubs on May 11, and since that moment, he’s only had one extra-base hit.

Going into it, we knew Taylor’s bat would never be the most important part of his game, but he’s become a dead spot in the lineup when he’s in, and with offensive struggles as a team seeming to flare up at random moments, and I mean as an entire team, having guys like Taylor in the lineup won’t help things.

It will be interesting to see if Taylor can pick up his offensive production at least a little bit as we head into June, but it will be interesting to see how the Pirates handle Taylor if it doesn’t.

Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo was already seeing tons of playing time at second base this season after winning the Spring battle for the position, but once Ke’Bryan Hayes went to the injured list, Triolo was thrust into the third base role again, but outside of his defensive efforts, much like Taylor, his bat hasn’t come anywhere close to matching his defensive production.

The glove will always be there for Triolo, who of course won a Minor League Gold Glove Award, but since his solid 2023 hitting the baseball, which was a bit of a smokescreen thanks to advanced analytics, his offensive output just hasn’t been there.

Triolo is hitting just over the Mendoza Line on the season right now at .205, including a .188 average over his past 30 appearances. His BABIP has also dropped from .440 in 2023 to .260 in 2024, which highlights that smokescreen thanks to advanced analytics I just mentioned.

Off-speed offerings have given Triolo fits all season, as his .083 average would suggest, and although he’s still hitting fastballs at a below-average clip of .220, he isn’t seeing much else expect off-speed as teams have scouted him enough to know his struggles with those offerings.

Triolo’s glove will keep him around for quite awhile, but his offensive struggles could warrant discussions of how many more opportunities he’ll get at the plate for the Pirates moving forward, especially with Gonzales tearing the cover off the ball.

Aroldis Chapman

With how bad the bullpen was in May, it might be unfair to single out one reliever out of the mix, but with Aroldis Chapman’s role, its not all unfair to criticize him and his performance from the month.

Chapman has been placed in plenty of opportunities late in ballgames, and although his ERA in May(3.86) is much improved from April(7.71), his downfalls have flat out lost the Pirates a couple of games, and yes, it is the in the nature of being a reliever, but when the entire group is struggling, a player like Chapman has to be the guiding light late in games.

Although that ERA improved month-to-month, what hasn’t is Champan’s opposing batting average, which increased from .185 in April to .242 in May, a clear indication he’s been getting hit around a ton more than we’d like to see from him.

As I have said on Locked On Pirates plenty of times, the bullpen’s funk will end eventually, much like what we saw from the offense as of late, and Chapman will likely follow suit, but he has to fulfill his role as a holding reliever late in games, and in May, he struggled in doing so and one has to hope that his fortunes change with the turn of the month.

Martin Perez

Martin Perez had been a solid addition to the starting pitch staff to begin the 2024 campaign, but a 7.54 ERA in May saw his fortunes change considerably.

That ERA is inflated of course from a blow-up start in Milwaukee in which he gave up nine earned runs and a career-high five home runs against the Brewers, but he failed to reach six or more innings of work over the course the entire month, a milestone he met three times in April.

Perez also allowed eight or more hits in three of his five May starts, while his strikeout number also saw a dip as well from 25 to 19.

The veteran southpaw was placed on the IL after leaving his final May start versus the Atlanta Braves due to a groin injury, and the severity of the injury isn’t yet known, but when Perez returns, you’d like to hope his April form returns with him.

Series Preview: Pirates (25-29) at Tigers (26-27)

5-28-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates are coming off a really nice series, taking 2 of 3 from the Atlanta Braves and now they enter a 2 game set against a completely not made up in any way “rivalry” series with the Buccos MLB designated rival while throwing Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. Detroit isn’t exactly tossing slouches out there though, and in Comerica Ballpark, there’s every chance these are two low scoring affairs.

5-28
Tigers – Tarik Skubal (L) – 6-1, 60 IP, 2.25 ERA, 72 Ks/10 walks, 0.85 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) – 3-4, 59 IP, 3.05 ERA, 68 Ks/10 walks, 0.97 WHIP

5-29
Tigers – Jack Flaherty (R) – 1-4, 61 IP, 3.84 ERA,81 Ks/9 walks, 1.33 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 1-0, 16 IP, 2.25 ERA, 21 Ks/4 walks, 1.00 WHIP

Tigers:
Kerry Carpenter has been on fire. In his last 15 games, 5 HR, .333 Average and an .844 SLG. In that stretch he’s getting on base at a .380 clip and in his last 7 an even more insane .435.

Pirates:
Andrew McCutchen, man that feels good to write in this category. In his past 15 games he’s hit 4 homeruns, good for a .295 AVG, on base of .386 and a SLG of .508. He’s really just clicked at the leadoff spot and hey, I’ll take it for as long as he wants to do it.

Tigers:
Wenceel Perez has some pretty impressive numbers for the season, certainly for a rookie. He’s really fallen off though in his last couple weeks of work. In his previous 7 contests he’s hitting .192 with a .192 SLG. All the vibes of a league pushing back on a kid, but again, if you’re the Pirates, just hope you get out of town keeping him quiet.

Pirates:
Michael Taylor has just been non-existent at the plate for a while. In his past 30 he’s slashing .151/.213/.205, and if that isn’t bad enough, recency bias of the past 7 looks like this .083/.143/.083. Nobody expected Taylor to hit a bunch here, but this is below the line even for him.

Key Injuries

Ke’Bryan Hayes could return during this road trip, and it would appear the Bucs are leaning toward not sending him on a rehab assignment. It might actually be more interesting than just getting the player back, the moves that it spawns. Will his return finally spell the end for Tellez or will Jared Triolo be sent to AAA to work on his stick?

What To Watch

Elite pitching matchups. This is really a marquee slate for pitching lovers and these teams are more similar than you might think. They’ve got some pitching, they have struggles offensively yet have some pieces too and they both play in a division that probably figures to produce the lowest seed of their respective division winning playoff combatants.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Memorial Day

5-27-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Memorial Day they say isn’t for celebration, it’s for solemn reflection about the sacrifices made to ensure our freedom. It’s hard to separate the two, if the country wasn’t worth celebrating, all these incredible people wouldn’t have felt it was worth sacrificing for.

I’ve never lost someone personally in combat. I just have a ton of people who were willing to give it all and managed to make it home. I tend to think about how lucky I am to be able to say that more than anything on Memorial Day.

1. They’re 25-29…

I guess I’m not feeling the overwhelming belief that the season has been a disaster. Feels like they’ve already absorbed a decent amount of injury and for the most part, kinda took the blows. Bullpen probably got hit the hardest so far, probably dipped farther into the depth than they’d like. Probably disappointed by more than a couple performances.

The offense has been hot, stunk and now they’re back to hot. The Rotation has just kinda balled out all year and is arguably it’s strongest right now, even if Martin Perez has to go on the IL and they go to Quinn Priester, I could argue there’s a good chance that’s actually a potential improvement.

I don’t like Andy Haines methods, I haven’t fully decided what I think of Derek Shelton, Oscar Marin has done an objectively good job and I mean throughout the system.

They’re carrying some dead weight and they need to make some improvements, both internally and via trade. The dead weight is more a crime of wasting space than it is a deployment thing. They aren’t playing those guys much, and it feels like they’re very right handed heavy.

All in all, they’re in a good place. This pitching staff should, even counting on nothing more than typical rebounds in performance by some relievers, really give this club a shot at reeling off some wins. The Wild Card will be in play this year, I feel it in my bones. If the Starting pitching stays healthy, I’d be crazy to suggest otherwise.

All that being said, there are absolutely going to be more tough stretches too. This isn’t a team that’s going to gel and win 90 games, not without some additions from outside.

They have 41 games before the All Star Break. I’d like to see them win 23 of them. That would be 23-18 and I think would force management’s hand to put more into this roster, this year.

2. Development

There are few things more casually tossed out as causation for losing like development. It’s probably number 2 behind Bob Nutting’s spending.

The truth is, development really never ends. You’ll probably take that as a platitude but honestly, it’s a constantly moving target. A race to develop into a fleshed out version of yourself as early as possible to maximize your years with your physical gifts intact.

Then it turns into becoming the best version you can be. Gaining experience and adding to your bag of tricks, to not only use your physical gifts, but think the game the way veterans have taught them and coaches have instructed them through the years.

There will be droughts and boons for most. Some will never get past that initial blast of talent that got them there in the first place. The journey is sometimes too easy and once they’re at the pinnacle of the sport, they lack the internal drive to put in the work it takes to be more than someone talented enough to reach the Bigs and become a player who took their talent and married it with hard work to have it last.

If you manage all that stuff, you might wind up being a player who’s still playing, sometimes well beyond your prime years and then you have to focus on learning how to succeed with what you have left. Maybe even change entirely what made you successful. Perhaps you were a 5-tool guy and now you just don’t have all of those anymore.

The point is, Development starts with talent. Hard work beats talent…. When talent doesn’t work hard.

What development definitely isn’t though, it’s not just some thing you can say in one word and tag with success or failure.

For instance, the Dodgers are often tagged with being excellent at development. They are, as evidenced by all their Rookie of the Year winners through the years. They also spend a ton of money and fill their MLB roster, so they aren’t often asking kids to fill roles with no safety net and they have little reason to rush guys unless there’s an injury issue. Trying to fill out that roster affords them to sell off prospects who are close too, and when they go off and become someone else’s prospect, they lose responsibility of their “development”. If anything, they’re really good at identifying the right guys to move. Guys like Michael Busch, drafted in the 1st round back in 2019, the Dodgers took their time. He showed power, lots of strikeouts and finally in 2023 he put the type of season together that 27 teams in the league couldn’t have ignored.

For the Dodgers, he needed protected from the Rule 5 Draft, so they gave him a cup of coffee and it didn’t go great. Being a team that expects to not only get to the playoffs but win the whole damn thing this year, the Dodgers had no patience for or room to develop him further at the Big League level. So they traded him to the Cubs for a couple Single A level prospects. It’s now on the Cubs to “develop” him. The Dodgers don’t get blamed that he’s up here striking out a ton and hitting homeruns. The Cubs will get the credit or blame now, we’ll have to see as he continues to develop.

But your perception of how great the Dodgers are at development won’t change will it? Don’t cheat this part of the game by pretending you can define it as some metric you can measure.

The game itself IS development. Every day. Every year. Every player. Every team.

3. If the Pirates Need to Call on Quinn Priester…

Martin Perez left yesterday’s contest with a left groin concern, and the Pirates could probably just use their off days and make it work if this is just a skip a start type thing for Perez. If it turns into a longer thing though, I think Quinn Priester is ready. He’s at least ready to get a shot at owning a rotation spot here for a while. Best case scenario he shows he belongs and the team can consider using Martin Perez in the bullpen when he’s healthy.

If the Pirates manage to finish 2024 with a rotation of Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, they’ll enter the offseason able to focus on the offense and bullpen.

Frankly, I didn’t dream this team could be in this kind of position this year. I thought they’d slow walk Jones, and at best Skenes would get half a year, I guess I just thought best case scenario, they’d be looking promising, but I’m kinda feeling like they could go into the offseason looking pretty established actually.

Johan Oviedo and Mike Burrows should be back in the picture and some others will push in 2025. The Pirates might just find themselves in a very Dodgers looking pitching development situation.

We all know how quickly injuries can change all this feel good stuff to woefully short, I’m not ignorant to that fact, it’s just been a long time since I can recall watching my baseball team head into an offseason with 5 honest to god starters who were coming back, not in danger of being traded due to impending free agency and money saving, in fact, 4 of the 5 will make league minimum next year.

It’s an incredibly fortunate situation to be in, now they just need to not waste it.

4. The Bullpen

A bullpen is underappreciated at best for most fans. We all remember that blow up or bad inning and we all too easily forget the times it went smoothly.

That said, right now the Pirates bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball. This bullpen has a 4.85 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, they’ve walked 89 batters.

Of these, David Bednar, Colin Holderman and Chapman simply have to be the lynch pins. If they perform, this starting staff is good enough to expect most nights that’s enough. That simply hasn’t been the case.

Colin Holderman didn’t start the season with the Pirates and he’s been really good. David Bednar did start with the Bucs and probably shouldn’t have, but he looks to be getting back to normal a bit.

Aroldis Chapman has done this to a degree at almost every stop in his career. He just hasn’t typically had them pile up together. If he doesn’t get right, the Pirates will have to use him in lower leverage until he does or send him on an phantom IL trip.

Hunter Stratton has been better than you think, promise. Kyle Nicolas and Carmen Mlodzinski probably aren’t ready to be here. They’ve got some work to do here but first things first, they need to find 3-4 guys they can depend on and run out there a decent amount. It won’t be a complete bullpen, but it’s a good place to start.

I can’t imagine there are many arms out there quite yet, but one way or another they need to start getting some guys on the radar. This area was supposed to be a strength, it certainly can’t be a weakness, so let’s work it back to league average internally and see if we can’t push it back to strength before the stretch.

5. Henry Davis is Hitting the Baseball Hard

That’s the most important thing going on with Henry in AAA. I’m not going to type out his stats because honestly, they aren’t all that important to me right now. Some of his homeruns were off of a position player. It just gets muddy when you start breaking down how he’s hitting and try to pretend you know when he’s qualified to come back.

He’s hitting the baseball hard. He’s not striking out too much, he’s walking enough. He’s doing it against fastballs, and breaking stuff, and yes, he’s doing it against AAA arms.

Reality dictates Yasmani Grandal and Joey Bart staying healthy helps determine how much time they give him down there. If they hold their own, Henry has more time to improve.

The best version of this team has Henry Davis on it, I firmly believe that, and I think the Pirates do too. When you send a 1:1 down to AAA, the next time you call them up, you hope is the last.

Expect the Pirates to be seemingly overly patient here, again, so long as Yasmani Grandal in particular can manage to hold it down. His history tells me to expect Henry back before too long. Hopefully he’s still hitting like this when it happens. I completely get wanting to have him take a volume of at bats though.

In fact, secretly, I kinda want to see him slump and come back from it. Prove he can get past it without looking like he’s grinding bats into sawdust and biting his cheek open. We’ll see if they get that luxury, it’s no guarantee he’ll slump at all, lord knows he didn’t last year in the minors.

When Ke’Bryan Hayes Returns…

5-26-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about what the Pirates will do when Hayes comes back. First, the team is hitting, and no, I’m not taking the coincidence of him hitting the IL and the offense coming back to life as evidence they’re a better team without him.

That doesn’t mean we should ignore entirely what has been happening, and it certainly doesn’t mean Derek Shelton should just plop him right back into the top half of the order, especially as they’ve really seemed to gain some traction with what they’ve been doing.

Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, Connor Joe and Oneil Cruz have primarily handled the top of the Pirates order, and you could even go an extra man with Nick Gonzales who’s stepped right in and been given an important role in the middle of the order.

Point is, I’m not sure I’m anxious to see Derek Shelton go right back to Ke’Bryan in the 3 hole from the jump and I’m saying this as someone who fully expects a healthy Hayes to swing a productive bat.

I mean we can talk about who is taken off the roster for him but does it really matter all that much? The way I figure it, he’ll either mean Tellez is finally DFA’d, or Alika Williams, maybe Jared Triolo get moved back to AAA. Rowdy isn’t good, I think that’s clear, I have much less faith than Ben Cherington at least verbalized in him, but he’s hardly been an issue recently. I mean, we’re talking about a guy who’s had 12 at bats since the 17th of May.

I know, I know, 12 too many right? The point is, he’s not playing with good reason and we’ll either see him get one last push of like 3 games after they feel like they’ve fixed something or they’ll just move on. I’d be much more upset if they weren’t just sitting him.

So let’s keep this focused on Hayes.

Against Left Handed Pitching the Pirates have been sporadically bumping Oneil Cruz down in the order to the 6 hole while he usually sticks cleanup against righties. I like the idea of Hayes in the 6 hole, I think that lengthens this lineup, but I’d like to not see them flip Hayes right in where they had Cruz. I just don’t see Hayes as a cleanup style bat. Maybe at times, but not often enough to eat the spot. He could go back to leadoff when they give Cutch a day off I suppose.

Thing is, I’ve liked what Edward Olivares has done in his opportunities against lefties too. Hayes can’t just be plopped at the bottom of the order, so we’re going to have to draw a line somewhere.

Let’s put all Shelton lineup jokes aside, and see if we can’t lay out two standard L/R Lineups. Most of you see him as a complete boob anyway so instead of focusing on how he’d use them, let’s instead look at what we, supposedly competent spectators might use the tools on hand. After all, if we can’t make it work, maybe he’s less a boob and more a patsy.

Against Lefties
Andrew McCutchen – DH
Bryan Reynolds – LF
Connor Joe – 1B
Oneil Cruz – SS
Nick Gonzales – 2B
Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B
Edward Olivares – RF
Yasmani Grandal – C
Michael A. Taylor – CF

Against Righties
Andrew McCutchen – DH
Bryan Reynolds – LF
Connor Joe – 1B
Oneil Cruz – SS
Nick Gonzales – 2B
Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B
Edward Olivares – RF
Yasmani Grandal – C
Ji Hwan Bae – CF

Here’s something that stinks. Edward Olivares is really not best served facing a ton of right handed pitching. If you had a fully functioning Jack Suwinski, the lineup comes together better against righties. If Rowdy Tellez wasn’t what he was, you might consider DHing him and giving Cutch time off.

This team needs more left handed bats, well, functioning left handed bats you want to use anyhow. Until they resurrect Suwinski or bring up another option, even if it’s Jake Lamb, they’re going to have to face right handed pitchers with some right handed batters who probably won’t prosper.

If they can’t get Jack turned around, they’re going to have to make this a priority. Connor Joe has given the team a gift, he’s made what they NEED to get easier to acquire. Because he can play multiple positions he affords them to shop for a left handed bat, which is easier than a very specific left handed first baseman.

Another thing I think I see here is Jared Triolo probably loses some playing time. There just isn’t going to be a whole lot of room. Think Alika Williams right now. I’m not sure that’s what I want him doing. Even if they choose to let him cover first base a bit, when? Pick a pitcher you’d rather have Triolo face than Joe.

There is room to improve this roster, that’s clear, but the how and what are starting to shake themselves out. Smart or not, this team planned on getting left handed power out of Rowdy Tellez and Jack Suwinski. They could have survived 1 of them not delivering, but both simply can’t go unfilled.

Over this next month, Jack gets right and comes back up, a long shot chance that Tellez eats magic beans and starts hitting 3 homers a week or they go get one.

Ke’Bryan Hayes returning will give us a look at how they intend to proceed and it’s hard to argue he wouldn’t improve the lineup, that doesn’t mean his reintroduction will be seamless. The chemistry is really good right now with the offense, and change, even expected improvement isn’t always easy to introduce.

The best version of this team has Ke’Bryan Hayes starting every day at 3B, that simple fact trumps all my other thoughts here, but I do think it’ll also be a bit of a touchstone for this season. How this goes will tell us a lot.

Nobody Deserves more Credit than Nick Gonzales, for how He’s Progressed

5-25-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It doesn’t always work.

In fact, it doesn’t work most of the time.

Young hitters with pedigree that make it to MLB and struggle like Nick Gonzales or Henry Davis get sent back to the minors all the time. We’ve even seen Jackson Holliday jump to the Bigs and struggle mightily, then struggle just as mightily on his demotion.

It’s hard to make the jump and in many cases, it’s really more about how a player handles the failure of their first chance and what they do with the instruction they receive about what’s missing.

I had a chance to talk to Pirates number one pick from 1995 Chad Hermansen on the Pirates Fan Forum a couple weeks ago. He’s an interesting guy to talk to on this subject for a few reasons, first of course being he was picked 10th overall in that draft, was seen as the heir apparent, seen as a special talent and then it just plain went bad in MLB.

He talked about how the communication on what he needed to fix left something to be desired, and how to actually go about making those changes was left to his imagination. Looking back on it, he felt he should have had more questions, even if he didn’t trust they’d have answers.

Well, Nick Gonzales had a similar experience. He too had some underlying issues his entire trip through the minors, but he also was talented enough to make it, and have the team get a look at just how big those warts might be at the MLB level.

When Nick was told he was being sent back down, he asked for specific things he needed to fix and he attacked them. When Nick was told he wasn’t making the team out of Spring, he asked what the team needed to see from him, and he attacked them.

K rate and Breaking pitch recognition were the answer after being demoted, and both are not only related, they’re often nearly impossible to change, at least to a degree that makes an impact.

I mean, if you look at a guy’s K rate in like Single A, ok, it’s early, maybe they’ll grow into it a bit. If you see it in AAA and after a trip to MLB, there’s a good chance the cement is kinda dried. You either have to just accept that’s what the dude is and take the production you can get, or you break up the cement, mix up a new batch and repour it, knowing it might not work and will absolutely take longer.

Nick improved both, in an offseason.

In 2023 his K% was 31.3% and everything he hit was a high fastball.

It’s only been 50 at bats in 2023, so you’d be fair if you claimed this was just the continuation of being hot in the minors. but the chart sure looks like he’s made some changes.

The K% is now at 24% and he’s hitting pitches all over the strike zone.

We have to see it play out more of course, but right now, it sure looks like a kid who took developmental critique and adjusted.

Now we’ll have to see what the league does to push back. If you look at where he’s being pitched, the plan hasn’t changed from 2023, meaning, he’s being pitched almost identically to what he saw and adjusted for. Is he the type who found a way to combat one problem only to be defeated by whatever they do next?

I’d say not likely. Especially since the best way to combat a guy who’s doing a good job wasting breaking pitches is to attack him up high, change his eye level, and that’s kinda playing into Nick’s best attributes, so, um, please?

That said, sometimes the adjustments made to combat an issue take away from previous strengths. It’s still a process, but it’s certainly gone in the right direction.

The Pirates have to have more of these prospects make the adjustments and matter when they do. Nick being Ben Cherington’s first selection is always going to make him the poster boy for how they develop, so in some ways, this is bigger than just one player figuring something out.

It’s Rare for a Manager to Escape the Stink of Rebuilding

5-24-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I think it’s funny how often baseball mirrors life. My kids probably have an encyclopedia worth of life lessons taught to them through the prism of baseball.

Kid fails his driver’s license test, hey bud, it’ll be ok, even Ted Williams failed 60% of the time.

I’m sure most of you have done the same, even if it was completely by accident and reading this has you thinking back to your own experiences where all these baseball truth bombs have come out of your mouth at work.

There’s always something to learn in life, and in baseball, I mean, that’s the beauty of the game right? Once a week there’s a good chance, despite all the games that have been played through the years, you’ll see something you’ve never seen before.

This Derek Shelton managerial tenure though, you’ve seen this before too. Way back when he was hired and the Pirates started out on this rebuild, I was talking to Jim Stamm my podcast partner for the Pirates Fan Forum about Derek and whether he had a chance to coach winning baseball in Pittsburgh.

We didn’t know much about him, general trappings like former hitting coach, made a silly video about hitting, worked with some really good people in the industry, universally liked and respected. Seemed like a good fit for a young team that wanted a modern coach to apply their analytics based philosophy.

We asked the question because, we knew no matter how good or bad a coach he was, he was going to oversee a team that was sure to lose minimally for the next three seasons, probably four.

Thing is, it’s really hard to delouse yourself from a record like that. In a way, it’s almost like how some fans treat Mitch Keller. Pretty rotten as a young pitcher learning his craft at the big league level on a rotten team with a bunch of young coaches overseeing their first rosters.

People that want to say Mitch stinks will read off his career stats to make sure you know just how bad he is. People that want to be fair to the kid tend to speak to his 2022-now, after all, the Pirates signed the player he is now, not the one he was as a rookie.

Managers rarely get that benefit of doubt. John Russell was so bad in his three years following 3 years of Jim Tracy being not good that it greased the wheels for Clint Hurdle to walk in to a more talented team than they’d had and reinvent the culture.

Even he was well into 2015 before some fans started to lay off and accept him as an “OK” manager. They had to forgive him for 2011 and 2012 after all. Remember the “epic collapses” he was not only the manager for but also responsible for?

Some never let go of those years. Some never let the stink of those two campaigns wear off to the point revamped calls for firing Clint started right back up in 2016.

Win and have good players, genius, legend. Lose with bad players, moron, worst manager ever.

Asking a young coach with no track record like Derek Shelton to endure 4 years of having next to nothing to work with, and purposefully using players who probably have no business being in the league because the GM wants a look at them, at the very least is setting that coach up for wearing the stink of losing.

All the way back to the top, baseball is life, and when we hate, we cloud our own judgement.

I don’t expect to change your mind if you’ve uttered such words, I mean, ideally it takes you a lot to actually use that word in the first place and I’ll refrain from lecturing about how it really has no place in sports unless it’s the playful “hate” of rivalry.

Instead, I make this point because I hope you stop and at least recognize the film over your eyes on this subject and try to see if you can at least peek under it on the off chance maybe this thing you’re mad about isn’t actually a manager thing.

I’ll be the first to tell you, the likelihood that Derek Shelton oversees this team through this decade is slim, again, the stink is real, and eventually every GM has their he who smelt it dealt it moment.

I’ll also say, very little of what this club has been through since 2020 is actually a product of Derek Shelton making a decision. Further, the next manager will do much of the same, because this is a GM who has an idea of how he wants his club run, and for the most part, you’ve seen it play out.

That’s right, the GM wanted to see Ka’ai Tom get 117 plate appearances in 2021. The GM gave Derek Shelton 3 starting pitchers to finish the last month of 2023.

He may have too much stink to recover, but let’s be very clear, he had a bucket of it dumped on his head.

This is the first year he’s had enough talent to compete, and fair or not, the first year he can really be judged in my mind for his acumen.

Here is what I know so far.

  1. He is completely in charge of the lineup this year. Meaning, he’s not being given a number of ABs guys have to have, he’s not being told where to play guys, he’s simply being given the analytical data and forming his plan. Derek has said he does this in tandem with Don Kelly.
    Where I am – I don’t care for the near constant shuffling. And I now think I can say it makes it much harder for guys to get out of slumps, along with easier to fall into them.
  2. He’s got a rotation that 3/4 of the league would swap places with.
    Where I am – He either asks too much of them or restricts them too much to let them shine. There really doesn’t seem to be an in between. I’ll give him acknowledgement that it’s hard to look smart here when the bullpen isn’t working.
  3. The bullpen pieces lack identity outside of David Bednar.
    Something we’ve seen through the years is a reluctance to let guys settle into roles in the bullpen, I’ve always assumed it has more to do with talent and his options, but now seeing the construction of this team, I see now it’s more about fear. Fear of injury, fear of extending a guy, fear of making a change with a guy who has been trusted, just fear in general. The bullpen performance absolutely plays in here, but the usage, well, sometimes I think you make your own problems in a bullpen. Pitchers, even relief pitchers enjoy order and repeatability.
  4. He motivates these guys.
    To a man, you won’t hear a bad word about Shelton. I can’t say I’ve talked to all of them, but I’ve talked to enough and no, I don’t expect players to tell a total stranger they hate their manager. There are just things players say or more importantly don’t say when they have an issue with their coach, I don’t pick up any of that.
  5. He’s not a yeller.
    If you want a guy to flip over tables, Dereck ain’t your guy. He’ll save his freak outs for the occasional umpire and even then it’ll almost always be in defense of his player or players.

He’s overseen a raunchy 218-328 record in his tenure, again, this might be too messy to clean up. Here’s what I need to see during the rest of 2024 before I say he deserves a 2025.

  1. Find a way to get this team into the wild card. It may be asking too much, but let’s be real, what’s wrong with asking your coach to win more than his talent says he should?
  2. Don’t allow your hitting program or who oversees it to trump what you need this team to do to accomplish goal 1.
  3. Make decisions to win the game in front of you, not tomorrow or next week.

I’m not convinced Derek Shelton is in any danger after this season regardless, and I know beyond a shadow of doubt that Ben Cherington isn’t in any, but the pressure will build, and eventually Cherington will very likely sacrifice the lamb he’s been shepherding all these years in an effort to get a spark and cast blame in another direction.

This is likely a conversation a ton of you are shut off to all together. You hate him and that’s that. I get it. I also don’t feel like answering the same boring question until the day they agree with you.

I mean, it could be argued that the very act of having a guy oversee that much losing, and I mean losing you knew you were going to endure, is dooming him to the eventuality of losing his job, and likely never being the top guy again anywhere. I could argue that losing that much almost “infects” a guy and changes him into someone that can’t see the sun for the shadows. Constantly expecting defeat to be lurking around every corner. A self fulfilling prophecy if you will.

I can’t hate Derek Shelton for a few reasons, first, again, I think it’s dumb to hate sports figures. Second, I’d have to ignore that the GM gave him a team that had no chance to win, purposefully and then handed him restrictions on how to use it. Lastly, he’s a really nice guy, like sickeningly so.

Think what you want, just don’t expect me to see everything bad as his fault. That’s not running cover for him, that’s just being real about who does what, and what levers he actually has to pull.

Hate clouds you. It might lead you to the right answer anyway, but I’d much rather get there by way of fact and observation as opposed to unbridled emotion. The manager position in MLB is not what it was, the men who fill the role aren’t either.

Series Preview: Braves (29-18) at Pirates (23-28)

5-24-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

When your bullpen is struggling to hold even big leads, it’s probably not a perfect time to face the Atlanta Braves, but it wouldn’t be the first time a series that should have been a nightmare on paper and it turned out to be the medicine they needed. Bluntly, if this is indeed to be a competitive team, they shouldn’t enter a 3 game set against anyone and feel the outcome is predetermined.

I’m not saying that’s reality, I’m just saying IF you want to be considered competitive, a series like this is one you should welcome, not fear.

5-24
Braves – TBD – I think this could be Bryce Elder, but it’s just a guess
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 2-2, 51 IP, 3.53 ERA, 29 Ks/13 walks, 0.98 WHIP

5-25
Braves – Reynaldo Lopez (R) – 2-1, 46.2 IP, 1.54 ERA,44 Ks/17 walks, 1.07 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 5-3, 61 IP, 3.84 ERA, 54 Ks/19 walks, 1.28 WHIP

5/26
Braves – Chris Sale (L) – 7-1, 56.2 IP, 2.22 ERA, 70 Ks/8 walks, 0.86 WHIP
Pirates – Martin Perez (L) 1-3, 54.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 44 Ks/17 walks, 1.53 WHIP

Braves:
Marcell Ozuna has had an incredible start to the season. Average at .320, OPS at 1.036, so maybe “hot” doesn’t apply, it’s kinda been all night. His last 15, .353/.444/.706, I mean, he’s been unstoppable.

Pirates:
Bryan Reynolds has snapped into form. In his past 15 contests he’s hitting .281/.324/.484 with 3 homers and 10 RBI. It should hardly surprise anyone that Reynolds has found his way to being his typical self, it’s kinda what he does.

Braves:
I almost hate to speak to it because it might change in this series, but Ronald Acuna Jr. This has not been a typical season for the superstar thus far. He’s 182 ABs in, and only has 3 homeruns with a .690 OPS and a .242 average. He can still hurt you, his OBP is .349 and he has 15 stolen bases, but it’s not him. In his past 15 games he’s hitting .172/.284/.276, that’s really not him. Law of averages with a guy like this though, he could bounce back at anytime, and you just have to hope it’s not against you.

Pirates:
Aroldis Chapman, I mean you probably don’t need more than the eye test here, but in his past 15 games, 0-3, 6.35 ERA, 11.1 Innings out of those 15 outings, 17 walks vs 21 Ks and a 2.38 WHIP. That’s not just bad, it’s actually incredible.

Key Injuries

Yasmani Grandal slightly pulled his groin but was able to enter the game in the 9th after Joey Bart was tossed from the game. I’m not sure that means he’s ok or he was ok enough to squat so long as he didn’t have to run.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is nearing a return, seen doing sprints yesterday at PNC, he’s passed the threshold for his IL stint and it could be any day.

Austin Riley could return just about any day here for the Braves. He’s just started his swing program, and hasn’t played since May 12 when he exited the game with a tight left intercostal muscle. Yeah, I don’t know what that is either, but it sounds hurty.

What To Watch

The Pirates squandered two great starts from Jared Jones and Paul Skenes and enter this series with neither of them to look to for help. The Braves are always a challenge and the Clemente wall screams being a feature that could help get Matt Olsen back on track. The Pirates tossing two lefties in this series might help tramp down the Braves left handed power, but they have plenty to hurt them with from the right side.

They’ll need some very good performance from their pitching staff or this light hitting version of the Braves gets a hand up being themselves.

Projecting what the Pirates look like in five years

Projections are always interesting, specifically because so many factors come into play on how a Major League Baseball club builds their roster year-in and year-out, from injuries, your record and standing around the trade deadline and everything in between.

For the Pittsburgh Pirates, projecting what they look like five years from now, which would be 2029, sorry to make everyone feel old, is heavily influenced on what is already in the organization, and some of these may be a ton easier to project than otherwise thought in past years.

Certain position groups are definitely easier to project out that far than others, but I figured why not take a stab at what the Pirates could look like a half-decade from now at each position group, giving you, the reader, of what to expect through the farm and what contributors are sticking around for the long haul.

Starting Pitching

SP Paul Skenes, SP Jared Jones, SP Anthony Solometo, SP Thomas Harrington, SP Bubba Chandler

Notice something right off the bat from the starting pitching group? Oh yea, two of the five are in the current starting rotation right now, and should continue to be for a very long time.

Mitch Keller was signed to a five-year, $77 million extension prior to the beginning of the 2024, keeping him locked into Pittsburgh’s control until 2028, making him an UFA in 2029. Assuming mostly everything goes right for the Pirates in developing their top pitching talent, keeping a 33-year old starter around with controllable youth fighting for every pitch in the rotation may not make a ton of sense, especially with how starters are paid on the open market, yes, even in their mid-30s.

Paul Skenes and Jared Jones have flashed brilliance thus far in 2024, creating one of the funnest duos we’ve seen in quite some time from two top, young pitchers. Having both in the organization is a god-send of shorts, seeing as Pittsburgh doesn’t often seek out massive contracts for starters in free agency, i.e. the last paragraph, and both Skenes and Jones are under team control for a very long time due to pre-arbitration and arbitration contract structures that help teams like Pittsburgh keep their prospects around for the long haul.

Now Tommy John Surgery is likely looming for both at some point in the future and should be taken into account, but I would expect that they would both be well passed the rehab and recovery five years down the line and still playing at the top of their respective games.

Meanwhile, Anthony Solometo, currently Pittsburgh’s number four overall prospect via MLB Pipeline, has been a highly touted left-hander since being drafted over slot in the second round of the 2021 MLB Draft(thank you Henry Davis), and he continues to improve with each outing in the minor leagues.

His strikeout to walk rate is worrisome so far in 2024, with 15 strikeouts and 15 walks, but he remains a top-100 prospect for a reason and should continue to see his command and control improve, much like they did in 2023. Solometo, unlike Skenes and Jones, is not a fireball thrower, typically throwing in the 92-95mph range on his fastball, so injuries could avoid him across his career, and the Pirates haven’t had a left-handed prospect look as good as Solometo in quite some time. By 2029, Solometo should be fully involved as a rotation mainstay and become Pittsburgh’s dynamic left-handed option in the bullpen.

Thomas Harrington is a prospect that fascinates me, and he currently rounds out the top-five for Pittsburgh’s prospects on Pipeline.

A 2022 draftee, Harrington is only 22, but he has flashed some high potential in his time in the minors, having a career 3.28 ERA and having not allowed a run thus far in three starts in 2024. Harrington’s biggest positive and what separates him from some of the other pitchers that I considered slotting in the rotation this far into the future is his ability to throw four-five pitches confidently for strikes, and he’s done that quite a bit already.

Harrington features a plus-fastball, a curveball, which needs improvement, an above average slider, what I would consider an above average changeup and a cutter that he added in 2023 to compliment his fastball, so his pitch-mix will no doubt operate well at the big league level, its just a matter of applying it, which I more than think Harrington will do.

To round out the rotation, I went with Bubba Chandler, who recently landed on the IL with a forearm injury, something you never want to hear. His fastball tops out in the upper-90s, so much like Skenes and Jones, he’s power over finesse.

Chandler was a two-sport athlete who opted for baseball instead of heading to Clemson to play football, and if his minor league performance is any indication, he made the right decision. He already has 218 strikeouts in his minor league time compared to 97 walks, and while his fastball is the pitch to watch more often than not, what will get him to become a mainstay in the rotation by 2029 will be his secondary pitches, having a solid slider-curveball-changeup trio that can makes opposing pitchers look silly.

I always saw Chandler as a round one talent, and so did the Pirates, who nabbed him in the 2021 Draft over slot, again, thanks to Davis going under slot, and some consider him the third best pitcher in the system behind Skenes and Jones and honestly, I find that hard to argue. Being athletic sure helps Chandler, and that athleticism, paired with his pitch mix, will make him a formidable force in the rotation, especially five years from now when he’s more then acclimated to big league baseball.

Catcher

C Henry Davis, C Endy Rodriguez

Outside of what we’ve already seen come through the minor league system, I don’t exactly see much upside from the catcher position, seeing as Garret Forrester and Omar Alfonzo are the only catchers in the top-30, and Forrester isn’t primarily a catcher, and with both Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez having made their debuts already, expect them to be the duo for quite awhile.

Henry Davis became one of the fastest number one overall selections to debut in MLB history, but he’s had his struggles at the top-level, especially at the plate, having been sent down this season after immense struggles offensively.

It is important to keep in mind that Davis is still young and has yet to surpass 300 career at-bats at the MLB level(293), so he still has plenty of time to figure out his offensive shortcomings, and with his work ethic, I imagine he will eventually.

Unfortunately, we don’t get to see the duo of Davis and Endy Rodriguez this season due to an offseason procedure on Rodriguez’s elbow that will sideline him for the entirety of the 2024 season, so learning more about Rodriguez will have to wait until 2025.

Rodriguez, much like Davis, had his struggles offensively in 2023 and still has a ton to prove, but his upside suggest he’ll eventually overcome those struggles. Rodriguez also has the potential to move around the diamond, having played other positions in the minors, but I would expect him to stay behind the dish unless his arm can’t perform there, which would make the Pirates have to think outside the box on his defensive position.

First Base

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest

Yeah, let’s get wild for a second.

Yes, I know a ton of you want JJ Weatherholt in the upcoming MLB Draft, seeing as he is a Pittsburgh area native and plays collegiate ball at West Virginia and is regarded as one of the top hitters in the class, but hear me out for a second.

The Pirates first base situation in the minors isn’t much to be happy about, and although one of them could eventually emerge, I don’t see a ton of starter upside in any of them, sorry to be a debby-downer, even though I hope one emerges eventually.

Nick Kurtz is an interesting prospect in the upcoming MLB Draft for a multitude of reasons, seeing as he was recruited by Wake Forest to pitch but has ended up being one of the best bats in the nation at the collegiate level.

At 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, Kurtz absolutely obliterates the baseball with force from the left side, hitting 60 homers in his time with the Demon Deacons while slashing .336/.509/.731/1.241. And since it matters to some, Kurtz is a Lancaster, PA native, so there’s that too.

Kurtz is currently the fourth ranked prospect via MLB Pipeline behind Georgia’s Charlie Condon, Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and Florida’s Jac Caglianone, so its unknown if Pittsburgh will even have the opportunity to select Kurtz, but if they do, it would offer them the best first base prospect they’ve have in a very, very long time, and Kurtz, who I expect to be a fine professional player, would give Pittsburgh much needed consistency at first base, a position they haven’t had consistency with in what feels like forever.

Second Base

2B Termarr Johnson, 2B Nick Gonzales

You have probably heard me say nothing but good things for Termarr Johnson on Locked On Pirates, and I loved the selection when he was acquired in the 2022 MLB Draft at number four overall, and I still love the selection every bit as much as I did two years ago.

At 19 right now, Johnson is the highest ranked position prospect in the Pirates system, and with a hit tool that made scouts drool coming into that draft, its no shock that he sits number two, and when Paul Skenes graduates, likely number one.

Johnson was a shortstop in high school, but his 5-foot-8 frame suggested second base as his home professionally, and he’s done well since becoming a pro, flashing power and contact tools that are already considered above average, backed by a career .805 OPS at the lower levels along with 21 RBIs.

Don’t be shocked if Johnson gets a look later this year in a small stint, and he’ll most definitely be in the conversation to debut full-time at some point in 2025, and with his hit tool only likely to get better as he matures, he’ll handle second base for the Pirates for the long haul.

Having Nick Gonzales here isn’t a mistake either, and much like Johnson, his hit tool is what got him selected as a top-10 selection in the 2021 MLB Draft. Gonzales, much like the earlier mentioned Davis and Rodriguez, had his struggles in 2023, but he’s since tinkered with his batting stance to allow himself to drive the ball to all parts of the field, and we’ve seen that quite in a bit since he was called up from AAA just a little over a week ago.

If Gonzales continues to hit, he’ll continue to find playing time, even if that’s in a platoon role with Johnson down the line and as a backup third baseman, which will talk about shortly. The expectation is that the results will continue to come if Gonzales continues to mature and keep the strikeouts down, which he has, and having a Johnson, Gonzales platoon duo at second base five years from now sounds pretty damn fun.

Third Base

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B/SS Jack Brannigan

Back issues will bother Ke’Bryan Hayes throughout his entire career, but the talent he has cannot be denied.

Hayes was inked to an 8-year, $70-million deal in 2022, sparking two extensions for Bryan Reynolds and Keller in the years to follow, and that deal continues to be rather team friendly with what Hayes provides defensively.

Hayes secured his first of what is likely many Gold Glove awards last season while also bringing some offensive output as well. Before he was placed on the IL a few weeks ago, Hayes was still showing signs that the back-half of 2023 was no joke, although the back issues could have been apart of why his power diminished a bit.

If Hayes can stay relatively healthy despite his back issues, he should man the position until someone rips it away from him, and he is under team control until 2030(club option), so expect number 13 to be the number you see more often than not at the hot corner by 2029.

With those mentioned back issues, the Pirates will need a quality backup for Hayes in cases he is on the IL or out for an extended period of time, and the name that comes to mind immediately is Jack Brannigan.

Brannigan has been playing quite a bit of shortstop lately, but he profiles better as a third baseman in my eyes, and with a 70-grade arm tool, his defense at the position should eventually offer a small, but respectable drop-off from what Hayes offers.

Jared Triolo has been the third baseman for Hayes in his absences the past two seasons, but if the hit tool doesn’t come along, its hard to see Triolo sticking around long-term, especially five years long. Brannigan meanwhile, should bring both an above-average glove and at least average offense, backed by a career .834 OPS and 28 minor league homers.

I like Brannigan as a prospect a ton, so if he can continue to use his raw power and glove tools, he’d make a fine bench bat behind Hayes as a third baseman for the longterm future.

Shortstop

SS, Oneil Cruz, SS Tsung-Che Cheng

Like it or not defensively, but by 2029, I still expect Oneil Cruz to be playing shortstop for the Pirates.

Cruz is coming off an absent 2023 and has looked great the past couple of weeks, and as many of you know, his tools and ceiling are through the roof, making him a potential superstar in the making.

If Cruz continues to mash the baseball like we have seen him do since his debut in 2022, he has the potential to stamp himself among the best to wear a Pirates uniform, and he could be the conductor on the contending train from now until 2029, not much else to say on that front.

Meanwhile, Cruz will need a backup who is defensively inclined if his defense alone doesn’t improve, so enter Tsung-Che Cheng, who can do just that, and some.

Cheng has climbed all the way up to eighth on MLB Pipeline’s rankings among Pirates prospects, and for good reason, seeing as his above-average glove was complimented by some strong offense in 2023 that has carried over to 2024.

Cheng has struggled some at AA Altoona in 2024, but his newfound power from 2023 has carried over, as he sits with four homers in 110 ABs, just about the pace to reach his 13 homers from 2023.

It will all be about proving himself at the higher levels for Cheng, but his hit tool has the potential to be above-average and at worst average in my eyes, so slotting him in behind Cruz five years from now isn’t all surprising, especially seeing as his defense can handle the position and offer value, much like what we’ve seen from Alika Williams in small stints. Imagine those small stints from Williams all the time though, and that’s what you’re likely to get in Cheng as a great complimentary option at the shortstop position alongside Cruz.

Outfield

OF Bryan Reynolds, SS/OF Mitch Jebb, OF Lonnie White Jr.

Bryan Reynolds will continue to headline the outfield in 2029, seeing as he is under team control until 2032 with a club option in 2031.

Reynolds has been a steady presence offensively for the Pirates since arriving from San Francisco via the Andrew McCutchen trade, and assuming his offense stays steady throughout his entire career, there is absolutely no reason to see why the Pirates would go another route unless he was traded or falls off a cliff. Meanwhile, with what’s available in the system, you have to get a bit creative in finding his running mates.

I chose Mitch Jebb as the other corner outfielder, seeing as I think he will eventually move to the outfield with other pieces like Johnson, Brannigan and Cheng occupying most of the infield playing time that will be available.

Jebb is very far away, seeing as he was selected in last years draft as a more raw prospect out of Michigan State, but scouts suggest he’ll hit the ball quite a bit and with plus speed, he’ll become an above-average base stealer and that speed should allow him to make a move to the outfield rather easily.

Driven by line-drive contact, Jebb profiles as a perfect future lead-off hitter and set-up man, seeing as power will likely never have a major impact on his game. Pairing his speed and high contact rates together should place him in a good spot in the future, and placing him in the outfield mix would surely give him ample opportunities to impress and become a mainstay in front of the Clemente wall.

The outfield in 2029 is rounded out by another one of my favorite prospects, Lonnie White Jr.

White Jr. nearly went to Penn State to play football but eventually signed up for baseball instead, and recently, he’s had a good go of things. Profiling as Pittsburgh’s top, pure outfield prospect via MLB Pipeline(11th), he’s continued to use his athleticism to his advantage, stealing 22 bags since the beginning of 2023 while hitting 15 homers along the way. Injuries have stunted his progress as a prospect a bit, but when he’s healthy, White Jr. is very fun to watch.

With his 70-grade speed tool, I think he profiles well as a future center fielder in Pittsburgh, and if his bat continues to improve, he could turn himself into a five-tool player that Pirates fans would have a blast watching. Bringing up his power production would only solidify this projection, but even without that, White Jr. has the tools to be a solid outfielder at the highest level five years from now.

Synopsis

As you can see, I had to get creative at some positions and my hit rate on this list will likely be dismal, but it gives a good look at what’s to come for multiple years from the Pirates organization.

Future drafts, free agent acquisitions and trades will surely impact this list, but as I always say, the system offers a ton of optimism moving forward and the hope is that it can keep contending windows extended for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Hope you enjoyed the list and share your thoughts below.

Series Preview: Giants (23-25) at Pirates (22-26)

5-21-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following a 4-3 road trip against division rivals Brewers and Cubs, the Pirates return home for a series against the San Francisco Giants. While the Giants took 2 of 3 when the teams last matched up at the end of April, the Pirates will look for payback on their home turf.

The Giants have won four straight games against divisional rivals, including a weekend sweep against the Rockies in which they outscored Colorado 28-10. Meanwhile, the Pirates have found their foot again, winning 3 of 4 over the Chicago Cubs as they look to build on that momentum.

Pitching Matchups

5/21
Giants – Logan Webb (R/R) – 4-4, 59.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 47 Ks/17 walks, 1.35 WHIP
Pirates – Martin Perez (L/L) – 1-3, 50 IP, 4.86 ERA, 40 Ks/14 walks, 1.50 WHIP

5/22
Giants – Blake Snell (L/L) – 0-3, 11.2 IP, 11.57 ERA, 12 Ks/5 walks, 1.97 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones  (R/R) – 3-4, 53 IP, 2.89 ERA, 63 Ks/7 walks, 0.91 WHIP

5/23
Giants – Mason Black (R/R) – 0-0, 11.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 8 Ks/5 walks, 1.97 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R/R) –1-0, 10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 18 Ks/3walks, 0.90 WHIP

Who’s Hot

Giants:
Luis Matos – Matos was a top 10 prospect for the Giants when he debut last June. Although he struggled in his rookie season, posting a .661 OPS and clubbing 2 home runs over his 228 at-bats, he has already matched that longball total in just 8 games since being recalled with a 1.115 OPS in 30 at-bats thus far.

Pirates:
Andrew McCutchen – Cutch has been clubbing the ball hard all season long but running into some awful luck. His 17.2% barrel rate is the 8th highest among qualified batters in MLB and he FINALLY broke out with 3 home runs in his past 8 games while slashing .355/.459/.645.

Who’s Not

Giants:
Wilmer Flores – Flores has historically been a slow starter but this current season is tracking for the worst of his career as he is batting .202 with a .563 OPS compared to his career .262 and .754 numbers. His batted ball data indicates that he’s been a bit unlucky (.224 BABIP vs. .271 career rate) but his exit velocity numbers are averaging more 4 MPH below his average – 82.7, down from 87 career.

Pirates:
Michael Taylor – There’s a more obvious answer whom I could put here but, as most rumors indicate that you-know-who might not be on the roster by the time of first pitch tonight, I’ll talk about Taylor. While his defense has continued to excel, Taylor’s offensive success have dwindled significantly as the season has progressed. Following an ELITE first 7 games where he amassed 12 hits in 29 plate appearances and a 1.083 OPS, Taylor has regressed back to his old glove-first self, slashing .140/.196/.186 in the 32 games and 94 plate appearances since that hot start while doubling his hit total in that span.

Key Injuries

Giants:
Jung Hoo Lee (Left Shoulder Dislocation) – Lee went 3-for-11 in the previous series matchup between these two teams but will miss the remainder of the season after requiring surgery to repair a torn labrum he suffered after colliding with the fence in center field on May 12th.

Pirates:
No New Injuries

Team Notes

Giants:
Bullpen – While neither team has found consistency out of their bullpen, the Giants have fared significantly worse that the Pirates as their bullpen has a combined 4.62 ERA while tossing 183 total innings thus far this season, tied for the 5th most in MLB. Getting through the starters and into the weak and embattled bullpen might help add on runs for this Bucs offense.

Pirates:
Rotation – This rotation might be the strongest it has been in over 30 years. Over the weekend series in Chicago, the quartet of Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Bailey Falter and Mitch Keller allowed just 5 runs over 25.2 innings pitched for a combined 1.79 ERA in that span. And while Martin Perez struggled in his recent start, he had a 3.60 ERA prior to that game and can be both a steadying force in the rotation and a morale booster in the clubhouse.