Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – This Rotation Looks Deadly

5-20-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates rotation is the engine that is driving this thing now, but that don’t mean they have no need for oil or gas. The hitters need to contribute more often then they do, they have changes they can and should make, but more than anything, they need to improve in one big area, even if only 4 or 5 of them are capable.

Let’s go.

1. Oh My, That Chicago Series Was Different

This Pirates rotation has the ability to almost function like the old Steelers offenses of the early 90’s. You know what we’re going to do, and like Paul Skenes said, “Go Ahead and Adjust. Good Luck.”

Game plan all you like against this Pirates team, but you will run into an arm during a series that is pretty damn good at shutting you down.

You’ve felt what this does all along, but usually from the perspective of a fan of a team heading into that sort of series. You know what I mean? Like you can look at a matchup that’s almost a month away against certain teams and figure OK, there’s really no set of three of their starters I actually want to face.

Well, welcome to what teams with the Pirates on their schedule are thinking.

Look, the Cubs just tossed Justin Steele, Imanaga, Hendricks and Taillon against the Pirates and on paper, that is a set of four that has potential to win a series, and it’s countered by Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Bailey Falter and Mitch Keller.

Good luck.

Especially if this team is hitting even a little. Which they actually have been for about 2 weeks now.

I honestly can’t wait to see what 3-4 more times working through this rotation could bring record wise.

This isn’t a team that can look at their schedule and think they see weak spots, they don’t hit like a team that can do that, but they are a team no other team is going to see on theirs and look forward to.

2. Ji Hwan Bae Forcing the Issue

I have questions about whether Ji Hwan Bae and his skill set will translate to MLB, but it’s also pretty clear, there isn’t anything left to learn for him in AAA.

Here’s what he’s done in his 26 games this year both in his rehab assignment and in AAA.

First things first, he played a bunch of Center field, and looks at least a little cleaner on his jumps. Range has always been good, arm is still average at best, but he can handle it, and looks solid. Second base, he can still play, and I still worry about most of the same concerns I had about turning double plays and his baseball mentality to be where he needs to be. The Pirates use a lot more in play positioning for relays than other teams to try to set Cruz up for chances to use his arm for something special. Being in the right place doesn’t come naturally.

Offensively, man, 4 home runs, 5 doubles, 15 RBI, 7 Steals, hitting .375, OPS of 1.056, honestly, I’m not sure how you don’t call him up.

Remember, he started the season on the shelf so he didn’t really get a shot to compete this Spring, in fact, his injury may well have lead the team to decide to bring in Michael A. Taylor at the end of Spring Training, just to sure up the CF picture a bit.

Now, where he plays or what he does up here, hard to say.

They could send him for Jack Suwinski and he pops right in as the platoon for Michael Taylor. They could send Triolo out for him and then he’d have to assume 2B duties while Nick Gonzales starts at 3rd until Hayes returns. Or Alika would and man I’m not sure that really helps the defense.

They could move someone like Edward Olivares, but the only way you could do that is if you really just need to balance the lefty-righty lay of the land on this club. And I’m not sure it’s a good message, Eddie has hit at least a little, at least more than some of his competitors for OF time.

Could even be Rowdy, and in that case you’d be deciding Joe is the starter, and Grandal is going to have to cover off days for Joe over there.

They also aren’t playing Alika much, so that’s a pretty easy swap too, but I still have to ask, where does the playing time come from? Point is, it’s time to bring him up, there are plenty of candidates underperforming with options, pick one, I’ll probably find a way to get behind it.

3. Take Care in Decisions

I’m not gonna lie here, the Pirates and their system have all the trappings of becoming a pitching factory. They’ve selected pitching well, and early on here, they’ve developed pitching well. The Pirates will absolutely have to deal some of that pitching for hitting, it’s quite literally unavoidable.

I’d just like to toss out a couple things to think about here for all of you to think about. This isn’t about prospect hugging, or being afraid to “go all in”, it’s about how quickly a strength can become depleted in MLB.

Remember that Ben Cherington has not sold you or Travis Williams, or Bob Nutting that he was going to open a competitive window.

I see fans on the regular talk about a 1-3 year window and while that might very well be what they achieve from all this, Ben Cherington is very much so trying to stay competitive once they are. Loosen your interpretation of competitive, because he means it like he means it this year. Sure he wants to have a peak where the Series is really a real thought, but he plans to not have to bottom out again.

He wouldn’t be the first to say this, fail and renege, but it matters because the seeming conveyer belt of pitching prospects probably shouldn’t be seen as superfluous.

There will be injuries, there will be guys who look like they are 100% part of the picture could succumb to something that must makes no sense at all. It was just over a year ago you’d be hard pressed to find someone who thought Roansy Contreras would be anything short of a member of the rotation for the next 5 years.

Think about how many times Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole pitched together in Pittsburgh.

The talent is real, and yes, it’s their most valuable asset. They will have to spend some of it on hitting. They need to be judicious with how they spend this asset.

The other thing to think about, nobody wants to think about. To be a sustainable winner without spending 200 million, they’re going to have to think of at least some of their starting pitchers the way the Rays thought of Blake Snell. The hope is when you do, you’re not saying goodbye to a star and crying because you have Hunter Barco entering year 2 and starting to look like one himself.

Dreams, but dreams cheap teams fall asleep to every night.

Lastly, when you see huge trades around the league, you rarely see teams moving guys in their top 4 prospects, so maybe chill on offering ours in all your silly packages you come up with on that crappy trade calculation site or MLB the Show.

It is an asset, but it’s more of a fossil fuel than nuclear energy. It will run out, especially if you squander it.

4. Runners in Scoring Position

Gross.

The Pirates have any number of things you could look at offensively but runners in scoring position is really where the rubber hits the road.

Runners in Scoring Position
OPS .634 Rank 27th
AVG .203 Rank 29th
Ks 113 Rank 2nd
BBs 61 Rank 5th
ABs 385 Rank 15th
Hits 78 Rank 26th
RBI 122 Rank 25th

They’re getting guys into scoring position at exactly the middle of the pack for the league. That’s enough to score runs, they just simply are not performing when they get them in scoring position. Refer to the first word of this post.

They actually get BETTER at scoring runs with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.

Runners in Scoring Position 2 Outs
OPS .658 Rank 20th
AVG .210 Rank 22th
Ks 60 Rank 1st
BBs 34 Rank 2nd
ABs 186 Rank 8th
Hits 39 Rank 18th
RBI 56 Rank 16

Plenty of guys on base and in scoring position. They walk or strikeout 50% of the time in these situations. That leaves you 50% of the opportunities to, I don’t know, make contact?

46% of their RBI in RISP situations come in 2 out situations.

The point being, they leave a ton on the table.

And secondary to that, the overall willingness to accept a walk or strike out in these situations always trumps putting the ball in play and forcing the defense to make a play. It hurts this offense in every situation, but none more so than with runners in scoring position.

Situationally speaking, this makes total sense based on their coaching. With a base open, there’s a good chance you’re not going to see something ideal, and they are trained to not bother with less than ideal until they have to. An experienced pitcher will work that to 0-2, 1-2 in short order and eventually, you’ll either swing at something worse than you’ve seen and passed on or take borderline, either way they win.

Take at bats in these situations with the intention of being productive, not the intention of taking “a good at bat”.

Last night Rowdy Tellez had runners on the corners with nobody out. He could have rolled into his third double play of the afternoon and it would have scored a run, instead, he struck out after taking two pitches in the zone and chasing another well off the plate. Poor example I’m sur for most of you, but you don’t always need a hit to get the job done, you just can’t act like it’s the same as leading off the 6th up 2 runs.

5. It’s Manny’s Time

The Pirates are set to announce this year’s class of the Pittsburgh Pirates Hall of Honor.

And to me, they can’t miss the boat on selecting Manuel de Jesus “Manny” Sanguillen.

I’m sure he’s not the only one worth arguing for, I’m quite sure he’s not even the best player or most deserving name out there.

He is someone that has given 12 professional seasons to this franchise, won 2 World Series and put together 4 seasons he was either an All Star or received MVP votes.

On the field, incredible, off the field, he’s been one of the very most visible team ambassadors. A fixture at Spring Training, a fixture at every team reunion, a fixture at signings and season ticket holder events, a fixture on Pirates Caravan events 15 years after retiring mind you, and an accessible fixture in the outfield near his iconic BBQ in the outfield.

If you call yourself a Pirates fan and have managed to go to even 5 games a season over the past 40 years, it’s hard to imagine you weren’t greeted by his wide grin, and his big mitt extended toward you to shake your hand and his soulful appreciation that you took the time to appreciate him.

I’ve had countless interactions with him over the years, so have a ton of you.

Here is my favorite and I think it illustrates perfectly why of all the players who deserve to get in, Manny deserves to see and experience this.

I met him at Spring Training years ago, and I mean YEARS ago. He was walking the fence line shaking hands and signing autographs and I watched him after each and every interaction look whoever it was right in the eye and thank them. Thank them I always thought to myself, how weird, he’s the one doing a favor for them right? Then he got to me, without even asking he took the hat I was holding and signed it and thanked me. I expressed some regret I was too young to have enjoyed watching the team win it all and he smiled and said, “we won it for the whole city, forever and ever, it’s still yours”.

He and Steve Blass are as close as I come to a connection to those championship teams. They were around, they were “still Pirates” to me, and I can’t bear the thought of waiting too long to give Manny his due here, just steps from where he’s posted up greeting thousands of fans, most of whom were born after he retired.

I remember when my sons were 10 and 8 years old respectively walking through the gates on our way to an afternoon game and my youngest points and starts hopping and pointing, look Dad it’s Manny!

This is 30 years after he last played the game. They remembered him from a YMCA camp he showed up to in Cranberry and he had worked with him on his swing.

He didn’t remember him because he won championships, he didn’t remember him because I told him all about him, no, he remembered him because he couldn’t forget his smile or how proud he was when after some light instruction the kid hit the ball.

He remembered Manny for being Manny.

Please make this happen Pirates, he’s already there for most of us anyway.

Is Bailey Falter a Piece?

5-19-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Baseball is funny.

If you’re a player who gets drafted high, come up through the minor leagues with little resistance and then look good in your first few starts in MLB, you probably have fans and the team seeing you as a piece.

If you’re a player who wasn’t drafted high, didn’t have a linear path to where you are, you probably never wake up on a sunny morning feeling totally secure about your spot on the roster.

More than that, a guy like Bailey Falter doesn’t throw anything that to the common fan looks like it should get outs. I mean, here in Pittsburgh we just got done watching Jared Jones and Paul Skenes throw absolute gas at the Cubs and toss Pitching Ninja looking breaking balls for swords. Followed quickly by this lanky lefty who looks like he’s playing catch with a toddler at times.

It works, but it doesn’t make sense, and even if it does, you know damn well, Paul and Jared can have a day where they miss spots and their stuff probably makes it ok, Bailey can’t afford to have anything off or everything is.

All of that is actual observation, it doesn’t take into account that Bailey wasn’t seen by fans as someone who should be here. Not good enough, unserious, proof the Pirates weren’t trying to win, trying to prove they were right, trying to salvage a trade, whatever, you’ve heard it all. Overcoming this stuff doesn’t come for most players.

Most fans for one thing aren’t watching every outing Bailey has for the Bucs, so they don’t get the cumulative effect of being able to look back a little and recall how repeatable he looks like he’s worked his delivery into being. Even if they are, there’s just no way he’s ever going to impress you the way some of these other guys are. You can watch him win as many games as anyone on this team and tell yourself he’s great, but you put him in a lineup with 5 or 6 other guys who throw harder and you’ll find it hard to pick him every single time.

So what does Bailey do that makes him click? Or more to the point, this is his 4th season in the Majors, what the hell happened?

When Bailey started out in the league, he was a sinker heavy pitcher and he’s become all about his 4-seam.

This is probably the most extreme illustration of a guy evolving to what the league is showing him and how drastically things can change for a guy when he goes from one organization to another.

I mean, look at what happens right around where the Pirates acquired him for Rodolfo Castro in 2023. The changeup is completely removed from his mix, he barely threw any to begin with, and it was replaced by a split finger that he also rarely uses. Not much of an answer there, guys toy with some kind of a timing pitch all the time, that’s all that is. Slider and curve are pretty consistently just show me pitches. I mean he uses them, and effectively, they’re actually nice pitches, but his 4 seam fastball is so deceptive, it almost becomes self defeating to try to throw a whole bunch else when it’s working.

That’s the real change, how consistently he’s been able to make sure it’s doing exactly that. It’s an incredible pitch and helped by something the Pirates, specifically Oscar Marin values. Extension is a measurement that speaks to how far down the mound the pitcher goes before releasing the ball. Or, think of it this way, the better you are at this, the closer it appears to the hitter you are.

On this one, admittedly tiny subset of a subset of statistical analysis, Bailey Falter is in every sense of the word elite. And that’s like…ALL he’s elite at. Well, how he controls his pitches too.

And the association of that extension number and his ability to control it makes his fastball what?

Yeah, ELITE.

The Pirates traded a struggling rookie infielder with big power potential for a Starting left handed pitcher with one elite skill, from a team that was in the thick of a playoff chase, looking to improve. Bailey Falter had become a project there, a guy who performed well in 2022, and was struggling in 2023, and worse he was out of options. Legitimately, the Phillies and Bailey Falter were out of time. Not unlike the Pirates with Roansy Contreras.

The Pirates were short on starting pitching and grew frustrated with Rodolfo, knew the option situation and dealt with him for the rest of 2023 in the hopes they could work with him in the offseason and maybe find something decent to fill a void.

Marin focused on that extension measurement, they built out a mix of pitches they thought might work and to the credit of everyone involved it’s worked brilliantly.

This year he’s pitched to a 2-2 record, 3.53 ERA in 9 starts. He’s racked up 51 innings already, he could give them as many as 200 this year and with Jones and Skenes being limited, they’ll be valuable. His WHIP (Walks, Hits, Innings Pitched) is pretty impressive, 0.98.

Because of the kind of player Bailey is he’s always going to be on the razors edge. He has one thing that makes him elite and if it falls off in any way, so will he. Lose an ounce of velocity, ouch. Stop getting that elite extension by a fraction of an inch, uh oh.

Even then, he’ll never blow anyone away, nobody will ever look at Bailey Falter and think he’s the best bet when you have hard throwing, high spin arms right there with much more room for error.

This man will be eligible for arbitration for the first time next year. The Pirates, if they so choose can have his services through 2027, and if they do, nobody will care if he did it throwing 75% 4-seam fastballs.

Bailey Falter has become one of the best stories on this Pittsburgh Pirates team in 2024, and that’s a team with two rookie of the year candidates and a recently extended veteran anchor.

If you were one of the few, the proud who thought he’d be this good, or at least love to say you did, congratulations, you, Oscar Marin and Ben Cherington deserve a beer on me. The fact is, Bailey has a very narrow way to succeed, and he and the team have identified it, and executed it.

You never know.

Not that we’ll stop pretending we do.

Why Do the Pirates Lineups Change Every Day?

5-18-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Before I start here, I don’t mean lefty-righty swaps, or changes to the roster or the occasional whacky Sunday lineup, I mean, more the seemingly purposeful avoidance of using the same lineup twice.

I follow analytics, not as closely as someone being paid to do so mind you, but close enough that one thing I know for sure is analytics aren’t demanding this. Not to this degree. The numbers change, but they don’t change so much so that you go out of your way to never even accidentally fall on the same lineup twice.

That’s just weird. Almost to the degree it has to be some kind of OCD to exist.

We all make jokes about it, we all know as sure as anything when we get today’s lineup it won’t only be different than yesterday, it’ll be different than it’s been all year long. They’ve barely made any position player swaps in the grand scheme of things, and somehow, someway, that lineup will be completely foreign to us.

There are times where Derek Shelton will stick a guy in a spot and not let go. Reynolds has been the number 2 for about as long as he’s been considered a starting outfielder. Hayes has hit 3rd stubbornly, or leadoff here and there. Cruz has lately been planted at 3 or 4. Cutch has lead off, hit cleanup, even third.

A little movement, a bit of change, some lineup shuffling, all completely normal. For the Pirates though, it’s become what feels like an inside joke none of us has a hope of ever getting.

The Pirates have played 46 games this season, and by my count, they’ve used 45 different lineups, only 1 has been repeated and it was during the Miami Series on opening weekend.

Again, I don’t expect a set lineup, they don’t have that kind of talent. Some guys simply shouldn’t face someone who pitches same side. But it seems to me they’d be a better team, and bluntly, get more useful data if they’d try narrowing it down to a set of two that at least serve as the starting points vs righties or lefties.

Of course analytics could tell you a guy has reverse splits or a history against someone and of course that’s the purview of the manager to make that call.

45 in 46 isn’t an accident, and analytics didn’t dictate it either. It’s silly.

Let me circle back to a point I made earlier about it providing “better data”, because I’m not sure that’s as intuitive as it needs to be.

The fewer number of variables there are in data, the more tested it is, the more you can trust it. Having less moving parts lets you get more granular when you look at your data.

Let’s take something stupid to illustrate. Because Bryan Reynolds never moves in the lineup from the 2 spot. All the data for who hits leadoff has the backing of Reynolds being the next bat.

Reynolds himself has a plethora of number 3 hitters who he was hitting in front of. His numbers are different for each one of them. They’re starting to look like they actually get impacted by having Oneil Cruz in the 3 spot. The 3 spot is one they have been more selective with which leads to bigger groupings of data for each instance and might actually lead to making a decision and sticking with it. Well, on a normal team anyway.

I think that’s all I’m calling for here, a bit of normalcy, a bit of trying to answer questions and build this thing out as successfully as you can with what you have to work with.

Let’s start learning more about the relationships these guys have to each other in the lineup and start locking in the pieces so we really understand fully exactly what we need. It’s hard to know what’s missing beyond the surface of replacing guys who aren’t performing.

More than anything, just stop acting like you have to always do it different. What works for the vast majority should probably trump what hasn’t worked for you in 4 seasons of trying to make it work. Try something different.

Well, different from what they’re doing…

So, normal.

Sometimes traditional wisdom is the best thing to trust. Everyone has that Mom and Dad were right moment, can Derek Shelton be ready for his yet? Please?

Don’t Take This Opportunity for Granted Pirates

5-17-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I was going to sit here and write about how spectacular Paul Skenes was today but you don’t need me to do that.

I mean, you watched right? And so did baseball.

Thing is, you and baseball watched yesterday too when Jared Jones shoved and fought his way through 6 strong innings.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a legitimate pitching rotation, anchored by Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller and we’ve only seen them go through this rotation once, so has the league.

This didn’t happen by accident, even if it did happen a bit earlier than the team imagined it could.

This team can’t afford to squander this opportunity.

Let’s backtrack just a bit, because one thing many never come to grips with when it comes to rebuilding a franchise is the single biggest reason to do it, aside of course the organization not spending money is to somehow create a situation where you have a whole bunch of your top end pitching cheap, young and under control. It’s honestly a really stupid bet most of the time, rarely do these players take off from the word go, and it’s even more rare if more than one of them is truly special.

I say that to really hammer home, the Pirates deserve their flowers for making this happened, and I mean this even if it was nothing more than dumb luck or sucking at the right time, the point is they accomplished a virtual miracle assembling this kind of arm talent and by extending and developing Mitch Keller, they’ve ensured it won’t just be entirely on the shoulders of these two.

In fact, by having even more coming, they’ve potentially insulated themselves against the inevitable event one of them goes down for a spell.

The team is hitting better, most people who weren’t wallowing knew that would be the case at some point, despite the hitting coach. Players at some point figure things out. They’ll cool off again I’m sure, and when they do, Andy Haines will at the very least prove he doesn’t help them fast enough.

Every day these pitchers are together, this team owes it to themselves and the fan base supporting them. This year, that might simply mean trying to add a significant bat or two at the deadline. Maybe it’ll mean they need a big bullpen arm. Whatever, they can’t just sit here with this rotation and do nothing.

And fans, you owe it to yourselves to stop and smell the roses a bit. I’m sorry, I know very well how MLB contracts work, I constantly tell you about team control and when extensions need put together and how long they have team control, but I’m not interested in whining about extensions or predicting the year they’ll be traded, or how expensive they’ll be in arbitration. That stuff is all in play, it’s all real, but there’s a time and place for it, and in their rookie years while they’re actively winning and setting records for your team that has just about the thinnest pitching heritage of any of the charter teams in this league, tighten your belt, put your hands up in the air, scream in joy the whole ride.

Those realities are always going to be there unless 2027 changes things drastically with this game and it’s financial system. Until then, focus on watching history, on your team. Criticize this team for not surrounding them. This offseason be even louder that first base can’t be left up to chance.

Scream from the mountaintops that it’s not enough to have a couple maybes for corner outfield.

You paid a heavy price to get here, and you don’t have to love this GM or Manager, or Owner. You don’t even have to like them. You can flat out think they need fired, but in doing so, come up for air every once in a while and at least realize they “bumbled” their way into giving you a rotation that can compete with any team in the league.

Open your eyes and realize if they do somehow squeeze their way into a wild card series and need to win 2 of 3, there’s a very good chance these are the 3 they’d throw, and honestly the other team can match up against them, but like Paul Skenes said today, “Go Ahead and Adjust, Good Luck.”

Also realize, that doesn’t just apply to this year. That’s every year they’re together and next year we could very well add in more, hell Quinn Priester could wind up cementing his spot as the season plays out.

Luck is a funny thing, and it’s usually assigned to those we don’t think can achieve without it, so I expect just about everyone to accept that as the main driver as to how this team managed to make this happen.

Cool. I’ll just be here enjoying it like a 14 year old seeing Barry Bonds swat homeruns.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a responsibility, and how it came to be doesn’t mean they can afford to let it go to waste. In fact, it’s afforded them the chance to do so immediately. They can afford to pay bats because they don’t have to pay most of their pitching.

Exactly the plan all along, just like when I took a wrong turn on a drive to the Outer Banks and missed a two hour delay in traffic, my wife didn’t even think to complain that I didn’t do it on purpose.

Some of you will probably claim Mitch Keller doesn’t belong in this talk, and you’d be wrong. You’ll read me his career stats and hang up your virtual phone thinking you totally got me, and I’ll chuckle and reply DERP. They didn’t sign Mitch to lead this staff, they didn’t sign Mitch for his career numbers, they signed Mitch for the pitcher he had become. A healthy pitcher with top end stuff and an ability to manage 200 innings a season. A steadying force that anchors the younger, sexier arms as they come up and contribute. A guy with experiences he can pass on, and here, not some free agent who’s been around.

Mitch will benefit from this too. He won’t wear the pressure of being THE guy. A poor Mitch Keller outing won’t mean it’s likely they’re going on an extended losing streak. Some weeks, Mitch will pick up the slack the kids leave on the field. It’s more about these three than most of you will admit until you’ve seen it play out for a couple seasons.

This isn’t a perfect team, it won’t be a perfect team when the season ends. But it is an improving team and it sure as hell has the foundation to be an exciting team.

They’re 21-25, 4 games under .500, 6.5 games out of first place behind the Brewers and it’s May 17 a week after Paul Skenes was added to the team. About a week since they climbed out of a historically bad month of hitting. And they’re still here. One more win in Chicago and they end this 10 game swing against the Cubs and Crew at 5-5, I’d say that’s hanging with them.

This season is going to be fun.

I understand the frustration and anger out there, and I also realize there are people that just got here to see Skenes, maybe some were here for Jones before, all I can say is it’s better than you think and one day soon you’ll look back on players who are no longer here and wonder why you spent the first 40 days of this season pretending that one stain was the one that ruined the shirt.

Don’t miss this. For your own baseball soul.

You may never see anything like it again, and I don’t just mean here.

Tick Tock, Tellez

5-17-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The clock is quickly running out for Rowdy Tellez, whose early season remarks endeared him to some fans while ruffling the feathers of others. Unfortunately for him, things have gone about as badly as they could since then.

After posting a respectable .273/.385/.364 slash through the team’s first 12 games, Tellez has posted an abysmal .133/.185/.173 over 81 plate appearances since – with zero home runs in that span. He has seen his playing time decrease accordingly, relegated to the bench to provide more playing opportunities for Connor Joe – whose hot start has him tops in most offensive statistical categories for the Pirates.

So the question remains: What went wrong?

There must be some reason why the big power threat who clubbed 35 long balls in 2022 and 10 by this point last year has just a single one over his 41 games in black and gold.

For starters, even though he has been hitting the ball fairly hard (43.8% Hard Hit rate and Average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH), he only has 3 barrels in 80 batted ball events. A big reason for this comes down to launch angle.

Rowdy has been struggling to get behind the ball effectively. His infield fly ball rate (15.2%) is almost as high as his line drive one (17.5%). Additionally, he’s putting the ball on the ground 41% of the time – not a great number for the, uhhh…whatever the opposite of “speedster” is.

He’s been working on extra reps pre-game during the Brewers series, while taking a few extra seats in favor of Joe. In case you think the Pirates brass isn’t seeing what we’re all seeing, they get it too.

They are also not happy that he isn’t producing.

However, they also recognize that the potential is there to breakout and, if they can get that power bat unlocked and into the lineup, that would be a MAJOR weapon for this team – which has sorely needed from that first base position.

The team hasn’t had a 1B provide 3+ bWAR in 25 years, with the last one being from Kevin Young in 1999. Josh Bell came closest with 2.8 bWAR in his All Star 2019 year and now, with this extra playing time, Connor Joe already has 0.6 bWAR/1.0 fWAR on the year in only 146 plate appearances. He’s posted a .856 OPS and 146 OPS+ while providing plus defense at first base – some clearly strong numbers which the club has been lacking from the position.

The fans are calling for it and, soon enough, they likely will get their wish. The front office is going to give this experiment exactly as much run as it needs to confirm that it’s not working. And we’re getting very, VERY close to the end of days for Rowdy’s time in Pittsburgh.

Steel City Pirates Q&A – 30 Percent of the Season Questions

5-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

All time low! They’re worse than ever! Blow it up!

Yeah, it’s time for a Q&A, it ain’t pretty, but it isn’t all that either. Let’s go.

Question 1

How long of a leash does Rowdy actually have? I want him to do well and he seems like the kind of guy you could have a beer with. I just don’t know how much longer this can go on. Of course he’s not the only one struggling. Do you think more changes are coming? Thanks Gary. – Don Jacobsen

For sure there are some more changes coming. As you said, they have quite a few struggling. They also only have a few answers and some decisions are more final than others. I know people want to blame the paycheck as to why he keeps getting chances, but it’s more than that. Whether they were stupid, ill informed or flat blind, they expected him to produce some power. And no, I don’t think they believed that 35 was going to make another appearance.

The thing is, they also don’t feel like they have a replacement for whatever the number they hoped for was. Connor Joe is at least early on here looking like he’ll at least pop double digits and play ok over there. Their patience isn’t an endless well.

Question 2

Gary, The Pirates aggressive promoting of Jones and Skenes seens incongruent with the passivity towards their hitting woes. They didn’t wait until mid April on Jones to gain a year of control and promoted Skenes a month before the estimated super 2 cutoff. Most fans (myself included) applauded this as putting winning over cost control. The lack of effort to bolster the offense pre season or in season seems out of sync with the more aggressive handling of 2 prized pitching prospects. How do you make sense of this? – Jim Maruca

Deep question, and I’d start with one point on Jones, they can’t have possibly thought they’d get this, or that he’d sustain it. Bluntly, he’s had sick stuff the whole time, he just walked a ton of guys and he’d be out by the 4th or 5th. So, it’s hard to say they “planned” on this happening this early. Skenes also never hit a speedbump of any kind. No injury, no tightness, no getting rocked, no control explosion, no pitch he didn’t have, he was pretty much done and didn’t need anything but a pat on the ass and a buildup plan. That too can’t have been really expected. It’s hard to think any team expects to get franchise records set with a rookie, let alone two.

I also think, they placed a few bets.

Davis as a starter was a bet, but one I as a fan thought they should take because of the bat. He got smacked in the face by the league. Triolo won second base from a host of candidates, all of which are starting to get their calls, Gonzales being the latest. Jack has hit more homers in an MLB season than a whole bunch of MLB players, and they asked him to cut back on striking out to the expense of his power it would seem on top of poor pitch selection.

Hell Joe was a bet that worked, like better than I’m sure they dreamt. Cruz missed a year, looks like a month was what he needed now. Reynolds is heating up like always, and Hayes is hurt, when he comes back with a healthy back again, guess what he’ll do until he reaggravates it? And of course Rowdy.

I think they’ll hit enough and certainly pitch enough to hang around .500 and then I think they’ll try to add something, maybe even for more than just this year.

Make sense of it? I mean, it’s messy, and hard to have everything time up, but if you ask me, I’ll always take the pitching first, even the best of the best aren’t usually going to be as good as a rookie as they are in year 2 or 3. The sooner the better on having them latch on. I think they have to trade for offense, and have guys like Gonzales, Davis, Bae, Triolo, Peguero types have to grow into the job. Gonzales has looked pretty good since his call. I guess it makes sense if you see some of their bets pay off. They don’t all have to, and they don’t have to be in the Series to start the clock.

Question 3

Gary, why are they giving the guys that aren’t producing longer looks. IMO 100 at bats tells you pretty much what you’re going to get. It’s time for some changes – Bobby Nacho

My head spins with the hundreds, probably thousands of examples anyone in the world is capable of finding in about 5 minutes to show how frequently that statement isn’t true. I think 100 at bats for a guy you have nothing invested in going forward, a track record that even if achieved isn’t all that impressive or worse a good spell that’s been just a bit too far away to matter. But for a rookie, or rookie like, you know, like not a guy who is riding on 20 games in his first season, those guys you have a lot to factor in. Are they a prospect you were really counting on? If so, maybe you need to be more patient. Are they a Bligh Madris type who has just been around and got super hot and maybe just maybe he’s found it? Maybe less patient there.

They’ve got 4 guys over 100 at bats that I’m sure you’re talking about. Tellez, Triolo, Suwinski and Taylor. Tellez, I kinda explained in question 2 and will hit again in 4, Triolo probably would have gone if Hayes hadn’t gotten hurt, Jack, much like Tellez is about counting on power, and having nobody else who’s going to give it if they don’t get what they need. Taylor, defense, and that’s always why he was here.

Want Taylor to take less, Jack better start hitting. Want Jack to take less, someone else better start in Center when Taylor doesn’t. Tellez we should see lose more to Joe, in fact we just saw that Tuesday. Triolo they either wait for Hayes or drag up Peggy or Bae but he’s seen about as much MLB as we need to see without a reset.

Question 4

I hear there are rumors that if Rowdy Tellez doesn’t start hitting the ball soon, they’re looking at DFAing him. Do you know how true they are or if it’s just a bunch of rumors or one of those wait and see? How are you feeling about this season so far as of now? – Neal Kokiko

I don’t know who’s rumors these are, or where they heard whatever they heard. So I can’t confirm it or whatever. I know that there will come a time, and I can’t imagine it’s much more. It’s not exactly wait and see though, think of the tear he’d have to go on to have this continue to be worth the while and can you honestly see him going on such a run? Truth is, they could DFA him and I’d bet nobody picks him up if only because he’s owed a couple million bucks. Who knows, he knows he’s playing like crap, maybe he accepts the assignment and goes to AAA where he can regale the Indians fans with the rules for booing.

They’re patience is running thin, I think that’s undeniable at this point.

Question 5

I think this is lowest point for the Bucs since the 2007 season. Your thoughts? – Jonathan Osborne

I’m not going to spend much time on this one, although I’d assume you were in a medically induced coma during 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Bro, they aren’t hitting well, but you have a starting rotation core 47 year old me would have killed for during any of those 47 years save maybe 1991. I am simply nowhere near feeling like you my friend, and I’m truly sorry you do.

Question 6

Who is the next AAA guy to get a call up and over/under is Tellez on roster June 1? – NC Pitt Guy

My next call would be Ji Hwan Bae. I think they need another lefty stick, he’s hitting in AAA and honestly this team is missing some kind of athleticism or difference making speed. I’m aware of what he’s done up here, but if you never believe he’s going to improve, move on.

Now, Tellez, I’d say 75% he’s not. I don’t believe he has the capability to get as hot as he’d need to in order to have passible numbers, unless he hits homeruns and in bunches, I can’t see him lasting into June. That said, it would take two more weeks of “trying to get him going”.

Question 7

Upper management have been citing 2024 as the year that they are going to start competing. How poor what the team have to finish for a big changes to be made? And can you see a scenario where either Shelton or Cherington are canned? Or do they come as a package deal? – Brandon Simon

There’s a part of this that always gets ignored, but almost every time they talked about “competing” or going for the playoffs, they’ve mentioned the Arizona Diamondbacks and their 84 wins that ultimately got them to the World Series.

Point being, they aren’t talking about 100 wins, they’re talking about competing, being in it, being above .500, even slightly in this league is very much so doing that.

That’s not everyone’s definition, hell Brandon, it’s not mine, but it is theirs. And I think they still believe that’s what they have here especially after some of what they counted on performs as such.

No, Shelton and Cherington aren’t a package deal. Shelton would fall on the sword before Cherington did.

I heard some nuggets that Shelton wasn’t happy with the 6 man rotation stuff and man, did it look like he tried to make it work all that hard? Cracks form over silly shit like this. If Cherington trusts his scouts and talent acquisition, it’s a lot easier to replace a coach than to admit the players are the issue.

Question 8

Even more than not properly improving this team during the offseason the regression of Hayes Suwinski, and Davis is probably the most disheartening thing. Really drags down hope for the future. Thoughts? – PITsportsfanXX

I’m not sure I’d say Hayes regressed. He hit well early on, back acts up, offense falls off. Seems to happen every year, and makes having him part of your team important you have a glove like Triolo or even Brannigan at some point. He’ll produce close to what he did last year by the time all is said and done.

Suwinski they changed his approach to cut the K’s, it’s messed with what made him so attractive in the first place. He’s already adjusting out of it, but needs to play more consistently, even though he’s not putting the numbers up in my opinion. Davis I kind thought might have too much on his plate and offensively, he’s completely out of sorts. If I were them I’d have him DH only in Indy, get the bat back and get him back up here. Right or wrong they counted on him producing offense.

No, honestly, I don’t see regression from rookies as much more than an expected experience for 90% of them. Hayes is Hayley’s Comet at this point with the back stuff, and Jack will come around, and if not ok they’ll have to try something else. Maybe it’s Bae taking his reps. There isn’t a replacement for 25 dingers. Just isn’t.

Question 9

If there are staff changes (manager, hitting coach, etc) do you see it happening in season or will they wait until season’s end? And I didn’t mention the GM because he’s not going anywhere, IMO. – Nick Cammuso

Shelton is safe unless he’s going rogue and it isn’t working. I don’t get the impression that’s true, the GM seems to back up most decisions that have been made. If they move on from Haines, I could see it being in season, but I’d argue it’ll just be a promotion from AAA, Munson. All the candidates you’d find attractive you’d have to wait til the offseason.

Sure though, they’ve already done it once, and I could see it again.

Question 10

Who would you change Tellez and Triolo for and should Davis just be brought back to catch? – Elliot

Davis needs to hit first. He was seriously broken, and he needs to find something at the AAA level, produce for a couple weeks, while catching, and then, it’s time again. Triolo should probably be sent down for Bae or Peguero. Tellez can just be let go, I’d let Grandal spell Joe at 1B and hope to deal at the deadline for better help. If you want to try Jake Lamb, fine, just don’t get your hopes up, and certainly don’t give him 2 months too.

Question 11

Do you think that if the Pirates don’t start showing life by the ASB we might actually see some big changes? This was supposed to be the season they were going to be at least a WC team, if not a division contender and they just haven’t been anything close to that. – Noah Wright

Your definition of big is going to be different than mine. If you mean Shelton or Cherington, hell no.

The single biggest move this team has on the table internally is Davis figuring it out and getting the call again. If that hasn’t happened by the All Star break I’d be a bit surprised.

The only other thing I can say is much like the team has referenced, a WC team can be like 2-3 games over .500, so if they want to believe that’s where they are, well, it’s not exactly crazy.

I dunno, I’m not in panic mode, they just put these three pitchers together, let’s see the kind of effect that has with a suddenly back to life Cruz, Reynolds, Cutch and Joe. That might be enough to look a lot closer to that “dream team”

Question 12

What is wrong with Bednar? – Mark Graham

His fastball isn’t as deceptive as it’s been, and his control is nowhere near what he’s been like. Bullpen arms are volatile, last time I checked that’s exactly what he was. He’ll be more good than bad when all the tick marks are added up.

Question 13

Is the 2024 team better than the 2023 one? – Michael – 412 Double Play Podcast

Big question. Yeah, I still think they are, and I still think their record will reflect that. I think for sure, health assumed, they’ll enter this offseason feeling like they have 4/5 of a rotation in pen, that just has to be better alone.

I also think they’ll hit, despite coaching. At least enough to help this staff take them to a better place than 2023 did.

Question 14

When exactly did they say 24 was the year they’re going to compete? No one can seem to source this. – Captain-Splenetic

Umm, they said it to each and every one of us at Pirates Fest, multiple times, on stage. Named names for why it would be the case. Shelton and Cherington both said it on MLB Network at the Winter Meetings. Bob Nutting said it in a sit down with Jason Mackey where he flatly said his GM had money to spend, and the next day they signed Chapman for a bunch of money. Hell, Travis Williams said it to me on a Southwest flight home from Spring Training, lol.

If you haven’t seen or heard it, you haven’t looked very hard. Plenty of videos out there of Pirates Fest, MLB Network has all those clips archived. And most of it is transcribed on the PG and DK Pittsburgh Sports, one of which is free.

There’s no ducking it, they said it, they meant it.

Question 15

How long until #FireShelton and #FireCherington are gone, – Panther Pride
Not this year. Honestly, I think they’d have to be relatively healthy and not finish .500+ to even have them consider a change. Cherington will be with you for a minute.

Question 16

Did you expect Aroldis Chapman to be as bad as he has been? I know I didn’t. – Zach Williams

Trick question. Because yes, at times I totally expected it, because he’s always been like this. I just didn’t expect it early and often, which of course could mean the Cuban Missile has finally run out of fuel. One thing for sure, for 10 mil, he’s gonna pitch.

My guess is he’ll get better, but any Yankees fan will tell you this is totally him, and they’ll do it with a skunk eating shit smile too.

Question 17

You get to be GM for one move; target and acquire 1 “blocked prospect” from any current logical “contender” in baseball. Who is that player you’d look to add to this Bucs roster & what are you parting with to get it done? – Corey Shrader

If I could pull it off, and I honestly don’t know if Cleveland would consider him blocked, I’d love to go after Kyle Manzardo the 1B prospect from the Guardians. Big power, pretty good swing and miss, bats from the left side and could solve this god forsaken position for years to come.

I don’t think he needs a ton of development either, just opportunity. It’s also totally not the type of trade Cleveland typically would engage in and Naylor only has one more year of arb to “block” him.

I’d say Coby Mayo but I don’t think he’ll be blocked for long, but Heston Kjerstad could be some fun. Not the best start to his career in his call ups, but there’s talent there, left handed power too and an outfielder, I mean that might be as big a need at a 1B.

That’s what I’d go for. I’m sure there are others I have never heard of or thought about.

Question 18

Is platooning lefty/righty a long term solution or the best that they have atm? I could see maybe at 1 position but probably should find full time starters at either 1B and/or CF. – David Wald

I don’t like it for long term success. When a roster gets too flexible, and you start this everyone gets to play stuff going on, I feel like almost nobody gets in a groove. I also hate declaring youngsters platoon players from the start, I never know how you expect to see them become complete players if they don’t play like them.

I think about how long the team avoided allowing Pedro Alvarez to face lefties and I wonder if he might have provided more if they’d allowed him to try it sooner. I could be way off, maybe they were right and the only way he got where he did was by being babied early on.

Honestly I think it’s a crutch designed to mask that they haven’t developed guys enough to be complete. For veterans like Taylor or whatever, well, he’s shown you for 12 years he has to be.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – NL Central Test

5-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates debuted their prized phenom pitcher, somehow won a game where they walked 10 hitters and miraculously scored 10 runs at the same time. I was there, sitting with Josh Booth from Bridge to Buctober and Ethan from Locked On Pirates, and I turned to Josh and said this team needs to win a game where the bats had to make it happen. That’s exactly what we got.

It happened while losing another series, against a mediocre division leader. Not good enough, but the bats are waking up, as the bullpen starts to slip.

Lets Go…

1. 6-Man Rotation?

Not for long. In fact, I’d be shocked to see it go through more than once. It’ll be used to get extra rest for everyone, and help the Pirates decide whether Bailey Falter goes to the pen while Quinn Priester sticks in the rotation or if Quinn goes back to AAA and Bailey stays in the rotation.

They can’t stick with it simply because they can’t survive with a shortened bullpen for more than a week or so. It’s a gimmick, not something they can ride with.

Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Martin Perez and one of those two other options we discussed will make up this rotation for the next stretch here and we’ll absolutely see some changes.

Bottom line, this rotation has to perform to an unfair level for this team to win. They haven’t hit, but they are showing signs of life and this staff should make it more about getting competent offense as opposed to asking them to carry the day most nights.

2. Roansy DFA

This move was on the table just about all season. I actually wasn’t convinced he should make it out of Spring.

We all remember being completely convinced he was a fixture in this rotation in 2022, even in the beginning of 2023 we thought he was a piece, but it became clear as the season played out that guys weren’t going to swing at unhittable pitches that weren’t ever going to hit the zone, and the fastball was only for show. The move to the pen brought out some more velo, seemed to find a few things but this team has better answers, and they made the move.

I believe he’ll be traded and no, it won’t be for some silly high ranking prospect you’re dreaming about, he’s been DFAd people.

It’s sad when guys don’t pan out, and I still think there’s an MLB pitcher in there, so I won’t be shocked to see him pop back up somewhere, but baseball isn’t designed to just let a guy beat his head off a wall with one organization. Out of options, out of time.

When you get to the point where you’re DFAing players who have potential but you no longer have time to try to mine it, you’re usually in a pretty good place. This isn’t the same as giving up on a player too early, this is a case of exhausting every available trick to keep him on the roster, every expert you could shove him under, all the attempts to put him in a good position to try to find it but not hurt the team.

3. Oneil Cruz Has Arrived

It took a solid month, but Oneil Cruz has shown up and he’s already made the offense look different in doing so. One guy hitting is rarely enough and he won’t be either, but pair him with Connor Joe and the Pirates have a couple guys going which could be enough to support this pitching staff more often.

They still need more, Hayes needs to get healthy and get back to swinging the way he can, the two are very much so related. Bryan Reynolds needs to get his left handed approach sorted, right handed he’s been deadly, left handed, a pretty consistent easy out. That doesn’t fly from your number 2 hitter.

It also looks like bouncing Cruz up and down the lineup is coming to an end as they’ve been sticking him right in the heart of the order, and he’s taking to it.

Oneil Cruz has been on a tear. In his past 7 games he’s hit .385 with 3 homeruns and an .846 SLG. Lefty’s or righties he’s had success and he’s not striking out anywhere close to his early season clip. It’s not just a small sample thing either, in his past 15 he’s hitting .320. There’s a lot to worry about with this offense, but Oneil Cruz hitting cures a lot of things that are sick.

4. Look, it’s a .500 Team

I get asked a lot why I’m not angry. It gets me labeled an apologist or an optimist, but in reality, it’s just my expectation for the 2024 Pirates. I thought they were a .500 team, and I think when all things are said and done this year, they’ll be in that ballpark.

.500 doesn’t look pretty. Some stretches it looks like they can’t beat anyone, some stretches it’ll look like they can’t be stopped.

I don’t get in to the whole year five scream fest because I don’t look at them with my own preconceived idea of how long it should take, or whatever, I look at it from the same perspective I had in 2019 when this started. A team that was going to try to build into competitive, then add to it and I think this is the year for onboarding kids.

They can win along the way if things fall right, but there was no way to avoid dealing with kids holding down important roles.

Could they have signed better veterans and made this a year where they win 85-90, sure, especially at a position like first base where they have nothing coming. Sadly though, the position stinks in baseball right now, there just aren’t a lot of long term options out there.

Henry Davis hasn’t hit at this level, at least not after his initial call, but look, if that kid isn’t a piece of all this by the end of the year, contributing, they lose a bat they considered to be a big piece. Sending him down was best for him, but bringing him back and having him contribute, that will be the most important thing that happens in 2024 offensively. It’s on them and him to make that matter, because heading into 2025, they can’t afford for him to be a big question. They owe it to themselves to find out for sure if Jack Suwinski is in or out. They need to think about how they want to fill first base and preferably internally, because again the free agent board looks like a Boras guy and a bunch of just about dead veterans.

Even trades to address first base aren’t plentiful. The very best thing this team has going for it is they have pitching. It’s the hardest thing to buy, it’s the hardest thing to develop, and they have it, so rightly money should be spend filling holes on offense.

They can win this year, they just need guys to perform at the plate, guys they thought would hit, have to hit. I personally think they will, I just think it all adds up to a slightly above .500 outcome.

5. There Will Be Changes

The Pirates are stubborn, but not so much that they’ll refuse to see evidence or make changes to the coaching staff. It’s just not going to come because you screamed louder.

It certainly isn’t going to come because you’ve convinced them that something is Derek Shelton’s fault that they know damn well isn’t.

Andy Haines won’t survive the season if Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, Davis and Jack Suwinski aren’t hitting. He won’t be blamed for Rowdy Tellez failing, or Jared Triolo’s BABIP flipping in the other direction. He won’t be crucified because Michael Taylor is hitting like Michael Taylor.

You can’t, and they can’t allow anything to not absolutely maximize their investments.

For me, this was last year where they should have recognized what was and wasn’t working with the hitting instruction, for them it’s clear they wanted another season. Stubborn, check. Keep him after all those guys underperform in 2024, and it goes from stubborn to insane.

Oscar Marin to me has done really well. He’s turned a bunch of veteran lefty arms into valuable starting pitchers. Unlocked Bailey Falter and turned him into a very serviceable starter. Turned a bunch of system guys into nice bullpen options.

Derek Shelton has the horses that were supposed to help them play competitive baseball this Summer and while I feel he’ll be here in 2025, I can see a world where this season goes bad enough to see them make a change.

My fear there would be a new coach wanting a new pitching coach and I would not change Marin, not with how his work product has looked.

There is accountability waiting for these guys, but you have to understand the structure of this management team to understand where most “blame” gets pointed. 2024 is the first time this GM has put a roster together that he on the record believes should win games. That should lead to the first season he looks at his on field management and judges what they do with it or looks himself in the mirror and says, I didn’t do enough and I was wrong.

He isn’t firing himself, and no, Bob Nutting isn’t firing him either, but the on field staff is very much so on the clock.

Series Preview: Pirates (18-23) at Brewers (24-16)

5-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Brewers are leading the NL Central by a half game over the Chicago Cubs who just took 2 of 3 from the Pirates at PNC Park. The Crew is coming off taking 3 of 4 from the Cardinals. The Brewers have hit and pitched well most of the season, the Pirates are coming out of an epic hitting slump and it’s timed up with some less than stellar performances from the Bucco Bullpen to support the efforts.

No bones about it, this is a tough series, and the Brewers are flying on all cylinders.

5-12
Brewers – Colin Rea (R) – 3-0, 38.1 IP, 3.29 ERA, 25 Ks/12 walks, 1.28 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 3-3, 49 IP, 4.41 ERA, 44 Ks/16 walks, 1.48 WHIP

5-13
Brewers – Joe Ross (R) – 1-4, 36 IP, 4.75 ERA, 29 Ks/14 walks, 1.47 WHIP
Pirates – Quinn Priester (R) – 0-3, 21 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Ks/8 walks, 1.43 WHIP

5/14
Brewers – Robert Gasser (L) – 1-0, 6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 Ks/0 walks, 0.33 WHIP
Pirates – Martin Perez (L) 1-2, 45 IP, 3.60 ERA, 36 Ks/13 walks, 1.40 WHIP

Brewers:
To sell William Contreras as some hot streak isn’t fair, he’s been incredible all season long. A true emerging star in this league. Last 7 games, .400 average, .526 OBP, .560 SLG. Last 15 .327/.415/.455, he’s really just not to be trifled with. He doesn’t even do you the favor of being slow like a catcher usually is.

Pirates:
Oneil Cruz has been on a tear. In his past 7 games he’s hit .385 with 3 homeruns and an .846 SLG. Lefty’s or righties he’s had success and he’s not striking out anywhere close to his early season clip. It’s not just a small sample thing either, in his past 15 he’s hitting .320. There’s a lot to worry about with this offense, but Oneil Cruz hitting cures a lot of things that are sick.

Brewers:
I’m going to go with Sal Frelick, in his last 15 games he’s been given 48 at bats and hit .167, on base at a .245 clip. They have options but with Jackson Chourio off to a slow start in his rookie campaign, it’s hard to just sit him.

Pirates:
Some of the bats are coming to life, but Jack Suwinski isn’t, nor is he really getting opportunity to do so. In the past 15 games he’s only gotten 32 at bats, hitting .156, On base of .250 and a slug of .188. If the Pirates are going to keep using him like this, they really should send him to AAA. They need his power, but he needs at bats to provide it. It’s hard to play a struggling hitter, especially when you have a bunch of them, but in this case it’s really try or don’t. He’ll never do anything if he doesn’t play.

Key Injuries

Ke’Bryan Hayes is hurt with a lower back again. It’s becoming the Haley’s Comet of every season. Hopefully it’s quick and thankfully they have Jared Triolo for the defense but the swap of bats is not as rosy even if Hayes was struggling recently.

What To Watch

The Pirates can hang with these division leaders because honestly, there isn’t a perfect team here. They can pitch with anyone, and more and more, it’s looking like that needs to happen if they’re going to get back into this thing. They need a run of shut down pitching so this offense can put up 3-4 runs and win games. It’s not a fair expectation, but it is how this team needs to win until they start showing they can outscore opponents. This is not the best 3 pitchers the Pirates could be facing going against Milwaukee, they need to take advantage of that while only throwing one of their own.

Score 4 runs per game, probably win the series. That’s going to be the battle cry for a minute here.

Offense Must Come from the Players Here Right Now

5-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Looking at the Pirates rotation, and assuming health stays on their side, it’s easy to picture a world where the Bucs are very stingy giving up runs. Listen, if you’ve been a Pirates fan for any measure of time, you know that isn’t something we should just shrug about on our way to complaining about the offense.

It’s a necessary step this team had to take on the way to being a competitive team, and well worth celebrating on its own merit, because it couldn’t be more clear, this offense needs the pitching to be lock down most nights.

As much as you scream year five, or pretend Rhys Hoskins is some transformative player, the truth is most of the answers this team finds offensively in 2024 needs to already be in that room.

They can trade to strengthen the roster, but the reality in MLB despite a few outliers here and there, is that trades for actual MLB talent that helps right now probably won’t be available for another month or so minimally.

If this offense continues to perform like this for another month or so, well, they won’t be making a trade for a big MLB piece. I’d hope the logic tree here doesn’t need a treasure map for you to follow.

Again, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t think about moves that could be made, it just means it probably isn’t coming soon. Another point on trades, the Pirates aren’t in a position where they can be trading for a prospect expecting them to step right in and improve their MLB club.

Think on that for a minute, the type of guy you’re talking about is someone like Cody Mayo from Baltimore. So, you want a team that despite having new ownership can’t afford to keep everyone they have now to trade someone close to the league that looks like he could really move the needle. They want to win right now, so it’s not like I couldn’t see them moving the guy, but they aren’t moving him for prospects. They’d move him maybe for MLB help and even then, it better help for a couple years.

No, the answers for this offense largely need to be the answers we thought they had. Meaning, the guys we thought would hit, need to.

Oneil Cruz has to be a star. Ke’Bryan Hayes has to at least provide contact and extra base hits. Bryan Reynolds needs to be the consistent threat from both sides of the plate. Jack Suwinski needs to do whatever the hell he does so long as he pops 25 on the way there.

I could go on…

See this whole thing isn’t set up to fix all of that expected performance stuff and if those 4 even come close to what the team projected they’ll pitch well enough to win more than they lose.

Unlock a guy like Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, Ji Hwan Bae, Henry Davis and all of a sudden, they pitch well enough to win even more than they hoped.

When I say competitive or winning, I mean it in the truest sense of the word. Being good enough to win 82+ games. That gets you in the conversation and the race, and if you’re on that pace, it opens the door for some dealing at the deadline to make sure you hit it.

Connor Joe has been straight up Gravy.

There is no path for the entire team not hitting though. To trade what they’d need to in order to even half way patch the holes they have and bolt them onto that same set of expected performers wouldn’t make a ton of sense, because if those guys aren’t performing, they won’t go anywhere anyhow, and they’d just make their dream of having more prospects coming over the course of the next 5 years in waves would partially die on the journey.

They can make moves, but you don’t want to fill up the tank, change the tires and replace the windshield wipers on a car with a busted tranny either.

If those guys don’t hit, we’ll be looking at much bigger changes this offseason. That could be signings, trades, I mean it could even be trading one of those very players, but there is simply nothing that works if minimally those three don’t hit.

It’s why it’s so unfathomable the team remains so stubbornly tied to their hitting program and certainly sets up for ending the charade this year if they find themselves in the dark place I just painted.

It’s May 10th.

Cruz is looking better. Reynolds is going from one side. Hayes is slowed by his back, again, and after rest, well, watch him tonight, you’ll see the difference. Jack changed his approach, and he was one of the few Haines approach worked for.

Bitch about Tellez all you like. Triolo has struggled, complain away. But realize, those three were designed to make this ship float, if they’ve got holes, so does their entire plan and they won’t be fixing that at the deadline.

Hit or don’t, most of the bats are here for 2024.

Series Preview: Cubs (22-16) at Pirates (17-21)

5-10-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

We waited for not even 9 months but the day has nearly arrived: Skenes Day! That’s right, 2023 first overall draft pick, Paul Skenes, will make his MLB debut on Saturday to a likely PACKED PNC Park and face division rival Chicago Cubs.

This is a matchup of two elite pitching staffs against two faltering offenses as the teams rank 24th and 29th in wRC+ over the past two weeks for offense but each have a top ten rotational ERA over that same span (3rd and 9th, respectively).

5/10
Cubs – Javier Assad (R/R) – 3-0, 38 IP, 1,66 ERA, 31 Ks/12 walks, 1.66 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R/R) – 2-3, 41 IP, 2.63 ERA, 52 Ks/5 walks, 0.78 WHIP

5/11
Cubs – Justin Steele (L/L) – 0-0, 9.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 8 Ks/2 walks, 0.86 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R/R) – (AAA) 0-0, 27.1 IP, 45 Ks/8 walks, 0.91 WHIP

5/12
Cubs – TBD
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R/R) –3-3, 49 IP, 4.41 ERA, 44 Ks/16 walks, 1.33WHIP

Cubs:
Patrick Wisdom – While the offense overall has been struggling, Wisdom has been a rare constant in the lineup. Over the past two weeks, he has posted a .313/.450/.625 line with more walks than strikeouts (4:3) while going 2-for-2 on stolen base attempts. No one in the Cubs lineup has been more locked in than Wisdom.

Pirates:
Oneil Cruz – After a sluggish start, we are starting to see some better results with the bat from Cruz with hits in 12 of his last 13 starts. Since April 22, Cruz is batting .327 and slugging .510 while posting a 144 wRC+ in that stretch.

Cubs:
Dansby Swanson – After posting a solid but unspectacular .744 OPS in his first season on south side, Swanson has been struggling to heat up with the bat this year. He currently has a .626 OPS and is mired in a 2-for-29 slump while striking out 34.5% in that time.

Pirates:
Ke’Bryan Hayes – Ke has been struggling over the past few weeks as his biggest asset in his exit velocity has plummeted (84.4MPH since April 30) as he is stuck in his own 2-for-29 slump. In the past 7 games, he has a -28 wRC+ and managed just one extra base hit. Given that he is a key part in the top of the order, you have to hope he turns things around sooner than later.

Key Injuries

Cubs:
Seiya Suzuki (Right Oblique Strain) – With recent returns from injury by ace pitcher Justin Steele and former MVP Cody Bellinger, Suzuki remains the one most missed for this team, going down with an oblique strain following the Cubs game on April 14. He was sent on a rehab assignment to Iowa on Wednesday with the potential to return to the club this weekend.

Pirates:
No New Injuries

Who To Watch

Pitching – The Cubs rank 3rd overall in MLB for rotation ERA (3.07) and WAR (4.1). Taillon hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his 4 starts. Shota Imanaga – whom we’re missing this weekend – is building a case for Rookie of the Year with a 1.08 ERA and dazzling 5-0 record while Assad and Steele are each mowing down hitters. Even the lesser known Hayden Wesneski, the only member of the rotation currently with a mark in the loss column, has a 1.59 ERA over 22.2 innings pitched to date. It’s a strong, if likely overperforming, rotation which will likely present a challenge for the Bucs this weekend.

Pirates:
Paul Skenes – This one is a no-brainer. Skenes is making his MLB debut on Saturday afternoon and it is going to be a spectacle! He is the most highly anticipated pitching prospect to debut since Stephen Strasburg – against whom he has drawn some strong comparisons.

Skenes has been lighting up radar guns in the minors while mixing in devastating breaking pitches and it will be interesting to see if he can transition that success to the bigs in the same way that Jones has. Potential that the Pirates have one of the base 1-2 punches in baseball pitching for them this weekend. Don’t miss it!

Let’s Go Bucs!