Series Preview: Pirates (11-5) at Mets (7-8)

4-14-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Great way to finish the Phillies series, but prior to the game the Pirates were dealt a potentially big blow as we learned Marco Gonzales felt some discomfort in his left forearm. Never good for a pitcher, especially not for a guy with his history. The Pirates sent him to the 15-Day IL immediately and recalled Ryder Ryan, which caused them to change the pitching matchups they had posted which you’ll see below.

I don’t believe they’ll need a fifth starter with the off day on Thursday potentially until late next week. Friday would be Mitch Keller‘s normal rest day and it would seem to me if you think this is short term with Marco you might just want to mash something together and buy a trip through the rotation.

For the Mets, to have their record back to one game under .500 after starting 0-5 is pretty crazy. They’ve done so by winning 3 straight series against the Reds, Braves and Royals. They can score runs in bunches and they can pitch too, they just don’t do them both at the same time as often as you need to much of the time.

No matter how you look at it, these are two teams playing good baseball right now, and it should be a competitive series. The Pirates will have to hit the longball to outlast the Mets, that’s their game, and we’re playing them in their home.

Andrew McCutchen sans monkey on his back (Homerun 300) should be fun to watch.

4/15
Mets – Adrian Houser (R) – 0-1, 10 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4 Ks/5 walks, 1.60 WHIP
Pirates – Martin Perez (L) – 1-0, 19 IP, 1.89 ERA,15 Ks/5 walks, 1.21 WHIP

4/16
Mets – Jose Quintana (L) – 1-1, 15.2 IP, 5.55 ERA, 12 Ks/8 walks, 1.53 WHIP
Pirates – TBA – Although I still believe Jared Jones makes sense here.

4/17
Mets – Luis Severino (R) – 1-1, 15 IP, 3.00 ERA, 17 Ks/6 walks, 1.40 WHIP
Pirates – TBA – I believe Bailey Falter still makes sense here.

Mets:
Pete Alonso – He may be a weird guy, but the only thing strange about what he does at the plate is figuring out how to keep him from hurting you. In his last seven games Pete has 4 dingers, 7 RBI, 6 BB, a .360 AVG, .484 OBP and an .880 SLG, I mean if you look up hot hitter in the encyclopedia, there might be a picture of the Mets thumper.

Pirates:
Edward Olivares – Eddie O has really shown up, and he’s done it in a part time role. His last 7 games he has 8 hits, 2 homeruns, .296 AVG, .345 OBP and a SLG of .556.

Mets:
Francisco Alvarez – The Mets backstop has had a rough stretch these last 7 games. 4 hits, 1 walk, 7 Ks, good for a .154 Average, .185 OBP and a .192 SLG. His overall numbers tell a different story, so here’s hoping he stays asleep for 3 more games.

Pirates:
Oneil Cruz – Cruz has not had a great stretch this past week. In 27 At Bats, 3 hits, 1 HR, 1 BB, 12 Ks, a .111 AVG, .143 OBP, .259 SLG.

Key Injuries

Mets:
Kodai Senga is throwing off a mound, but the Pirates will miss him as the Mets wait for him to work his way back.

Pirates:
Marco Gonzales obviously, but we don’t know more than that he’s on the 15-day IL at this point. It will cause some roster moves.

Ji Hwan Bae has been working in CF more than 2B in his rehab stint, should be close to completing his rehab soon.

Who To Watch

Mets:
Infectious bats. When the Mets hit, they all hit, when they don’t they all don’t. Could make for some blowouts in either direction.

Pirates:
How long can the rotation keep this up? They were just dealt their first injury concern and it shouldn’t effect them in the short term, but change is not something any unit on a good run wants to see. A promotion of a starter looms, the sources tell local reporters, it won’t be Paul Skenes, but we could see Quinn Priester who has started strong for Indianapolis.

When Will Paul Skenes be Called Up?

4-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I expected to get asked this question on a daily basis almost from the day he was drafted, and I can count on one hand the number of days that have passed without it.

The problem is, the answer has always been different than fans want it to be. Meaning the well earned assumption many have is that there is a magic money date where he gets the call. Super 2, or the extra year of service time, or whatever, and the reality is, it’s dependent on quite a few things that remain completely unpredictable.

Let’s reiterate the plan for Paul that I first started telling you would play out in January and now you’ve had the benefit of Spring Training and the beginning of the MiLB season to see play out.

The Bucs will slowly build Paul Skenes up to around 5 innings and they’ll take all of the month of April to do so. This is an effort to make sure when he is called up he still has innings to give toward the back end of the season. They’ll top him out around 160-170 innings in 2024 so blowing 40 of them ramping up in MiLB would be counterproductive.

Beyond that, it’s always also depended on Paul’s performance, and the performance of the MLB staff.

Paul has done his part, and the Pirates just allowed him to go 3.1 innings for the first time last night. Fans laugh at that .1 but the real progress is the ups and downs. That .1 represents another half inning in the dugout and back up to hot on the mound. A skill he already has but part of the extremely slow build up plan they have for him.

Another thing fans should know here, Paul Skenes is fully on board with and aware of the team’s plan.

When I say Paul has done his part…
In 3 games he’s thrown 9.1 innings, his ERA is 0.00 his WHIP is 0.64, a whopping 19 strikeouts vs only 2 walks and 4 hits.

He’s done it with a pitch arsenal of old and new pitches, I mean he’s making up pitches at this point. 2 of his K’s yesterday were on his changeup that he’s barely had a use to introduce yet.

He’s um, pretty damn good.

Here’s the poop though, the Pirates are in the midst of 7 straight quality starts from their much maligned starting rotation, the bullpen is performing too.

This isn’t to say that Paul Skenes isn’t incredibly more talented than 2 or 3 of their starters right now. It’s not to say the team would be hurt by pulling the trigger on calling Paul up, but for who?

Bailey Falter was the obvious play in the pre-season but aside from his first inning of his first outing, honestly, he might have the best run going of the five. It won’t be Keller under any healthy circumstances.

Martin Perez has been great. Marco Gonzales has more than held his own. Jared Jones has his own phenom story going on and aside from some long balls he’s absolutely shown he belongs.

So, it’s fair to say, what’s the rush? Right?

I mean, you’d be right to think Skenes is a talent that can’t be held back, so it could be as simple as looking for the weak spot and making a move to the bullpen for one of them. They could even decide Jared Jones needs some polishing, and no, I’m not saying he’s performed like he needs that, but we know he’s got much of the same innings load concern that Skenes is carrying, so they could use them off of each other in a way to manage the situation potentially setting up having both of them down the stretch.

Honestly, they could pretty easily wait for Super 2 if it’s going well, and you can call it whatever you want, if the starting 5 is performing like this you’d be hard pressed to make a case of it.

Let’s clear up some other things here.

Super 2 isn’t predetermined, and they just proved it to you with Jared Jones, every bit a comp here. If you really think that’s the simple answer, you’re simply ignoring evidence to the contrary, and all the other factors we just spoke to.

He could right now go longer than 3 innings, the Pirates know that, Paul knows that, again, it’s about saving inning now, so he has them to give later. They aren’t holding him back on innings trying to prevent injury, they’re holding him back to get him on schedule and tramp down the innings. It has nothing to do with how many strike outs he’s getting, it’s all about the decided upon path.

They won’t use a 6 man rotation in MLB, and the reason is this simple, you don’t make such a huge scene out of getting a guy on MLB schedule and then change said schedule once you call him up.

So when?

If you think I or anyone has a hard and fast answer, you didn’t read this entire thing.

I’ll say again, by May he’ll be at 5 innings, after that, it could quite literally be anytime. I can say it will be at home, they won’t care about who the competition is and once he comes up, he won’t go back down.

This is best case scenario, because if the rotation wasn’t performing, they’d still be ramping him up at this speed, and frustration would undoubtedly be building. That doesn’t mean it’s without challenges and interesting happenings now. Nobody saw Bailey Falter as more than a month long mistake who’d wind up being DFAd, and you can’t easily say that right now. Marco’s arm didn’t fall off. Perez doesn’t look like a guy who should be in the pen, Keller just extended, off to a slow start, but he’s safe and finally Rookie Strikeout king Jared Jones is shoving against the stars of MLB without blinking.

All of this matters, so if you really think it’s just some financial choice, I actually feal bad for you, you’re missing a tremendous story unfolding while you wait with your arms crossed.

Some Pirates Off to Cold Starts

4-12-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

You’re all watching this team out the gate, so when I bring up the names of players who haven’t gotten off to a great start to 2024, it’s not going to surprise you.

In fact, the very last thing I’d personally be interested in reading or talking about would be a list of who hasn’t done well and a wall of stats to heckle, especially because the team has started well enough as a unit to allow you to just push down the poor performances a bit and let it play out in the background, well, not for everyone I suppose.

Here’s how I’d like to look at it today. I want to write about every player or coach I think is struggling to start the season and also address through looking at the individuals why each of their situation is unique. Why their leash might be longer than another’s. What options might be at their disposal, whatever pops in my head.

Let’s see what a well rounded look at each does for us, even if we don’t come to conclusions right here, right now, we owe it to ourselves to arm ourselves with as much info as we can.

Jack Suwinski

The Pirates don’t have to keep Jack Suwinski in the Majors. They don’t have to continue to insist he is and can play CF. They do these things because they believe he’s close to fulfilling the promise they believe, and in spurts he’s shown he has.

They’ve tried to avoid having him face left handed pitching, and despite that, in limited opportunities, he’s hit the ones he’s seen. Trying to cut back on strikeouts, he’s swinging earlier in at bats and it’s eaten into his walk numbers.

The power and the walks were what made him a defensible starter by marching his OPS north of the median. So early on his new, and undoubtedly team sanctioned and coached, approach is having him get away from his selective (and frustrating at times to watch) nature at the plate, and instead try to get off a swing earlier in counts. Jack is one of the few guys in this lineup I can honestly say did well under Haines. I’d even contend, had they just had him come back with the same base approach as last year, you might actually see him improve at it, instead, cutting down on K’s is the approach and I think it makes him nearly impotent.

Jack is a guy who in my mind needs to hunt his pitch whenever it comes a lot more than he needs to try to ensure he gets a swing off.

I guess I’d rather see an improvement on the progress he made as opposed to yet another change in direction. He gets the leash he gets because the Pirates haven’t had any other truly exciting outfield talents come along, and 46 homeruns in a couple seasons is something you try like hell to work with.

He’s also shown over those couple seasons that he has the ability to be every bit as hot as he is cold now. Over time, this trait led me to sour on Josh Bell, for what it’s worth.

Lastly, he’s just not playing consistently. They’ve faced so many left handed pitchers he essentially started the season on vacation.

Andrew McCutchen

You get to a certain place in your career and you generally know what you’re going to get out of a player. Andrew McCutchen has been remarkably consistent. He’s a .250 ish hitter, he’ll walk a lot, he’ll K a lot, at least the past three seasons you can say that’s been the story. He’s clearly at 37 a player in decline.

That doesn’t mean he has no value or won’t figure it out, but once you reach a certain age, it stands to reason you get to that place where the decline accelerates. I’m not saying that’s where we are, but I am saying if you aren’t looking for it, you’re not being honest about this player. Your respect for him is in the way of your eyes.

Again, that’s not to say he’s for sure having that experience now, or this year, it’s just to say, you can’t fairly discuss Andrew without admitting father time is undefeated.

The reasons to let it play out beyond he’s a beloved figure, well, he’s notoriously a slow starter, so it stands to reason if we just accept he’s declined in any way, that slow start might have turned into sllooooowwwer. Over time, he’ll adapt to what’s ailing him to a degree. If it’s bat speed he’ll alter his trigger time and that will create other issues or further drop off in another place.

He’ll do what guys who are on this side of the mountain do. He’ll essentially rob Peter to pay Paul. Starting the swing earlier to catch up, leads to guessing wrong more often, as a very basic example of this.

If you’re writing him off, it’s probably early, again, he rarely reaches the height of his powers before June or mid-May, and it’s so established throughout his career, it would be foolish to assume it won’t happen again. Even if what that adds up to is less than last year.

He’s not getting DFA’d, he’s already not starting every day, I’d suggest they could do a better job of taking some pressure off him by not hitting him in the clean up spot, but bottom line, when the end is in sight, it’s human and fan nature to start picturing it, thinking about it, looking for signs of it, so when a player shows some of those signs, impatience comes bubbling up.

If it’s all about needing to hit number 300, well, he’s gotta get back to the Cutch who can kill those meatballs that right now he’s swinging through.

David Bednar

There’s every chance David Bednar will save his next opportunity and not blow one the rest of the season, and in that case this 3 out of 4 failures start to the season will be chalked up to no Spring Training, and our Salem Witch Trials-esque combined psychosis.

That’s the REM – Shiny Happy People version anyway.

In reality, it’s a difficult situation or the coaching staff and the player. First, I think he’ll get a shot on this road trip, I just can’t see his next opportunity being at home. And if that opportunity doesn’t go well, I think we’ll see them change strategy.

Look, there’s a lot of reason to believe the rosy outcome will happen, but a team trying to win that’s already survived a few of these, well, it can’t go on and won’t go on forever.

It’s a huge deal because of the drama involved in a closer failing, it’s a pulling of the rug feeling for everyone and they just feel more damaging, but David is simply learning, with great power comes great responsibility.

When you hold the game in your hand 30-40 times a season, well, everything about it is amplified.

Figuring their way through this will be a process and you won’t feel good about David until he’s done his typical job 4-5-15-lol times in a row, that’s just the reality of early season struggles, but it far too early to lose your mind now.

Henry Davis

He’ll hit, but they’re screwed if he can’t catch.

Remember those simple days where we thought worst case scenario Henry Davis might be a DH?

Well, he’s catching ok, but he’s also just not touching the baseball. He looks frustrated, he’s acting frustrated, his coach has had to talk about it twice in post game now and man that just doesn’t work for some people at the plate.

Like think of it this way. When you see Oneil Cruz look really angry at the plate and he’s 0-3 do you get the impression he’s getting desperate? Do you see a guy who won’t accept a walk because he’s tired of not making that sweet contact? Not really right?

Davis looks recently like a guy who is just going to get his big boy swing off 3 times. For that reason, he’s seeing next to nothing he can hit. He’s struggling to hit the fastball, whiffing on it actually and in zone. So guys just zip that past him and as soon as he shows he’s timing it up with a foul they pull the string and he’s out in front by a city block.

This is kid’s stuff. Meaning young players, not that it’s simple to solve. He’ll find it to a degree, he’s too talented a kid to just not push back, but much like Endy Rodriguez before him, all the focus on defense cuts into how much offensive work you can do.

Henry isn’t out of time, and Joey Bart isn’t going to long term replace him, in fact, pulling the plug on a young catcher like Henry who is clearly struggling to juggle both sides of his game is exactly how you create a Joey Bart.

Yasmani Grandal getting healthy (if/when) shouldn’t matter to either of them either if you ask me, but I can’t speak for the team, and no matter what you hope the future holds, you can’t start a kid who isn’t hitting even .100. If they didn’t plan to give him a good month or two I doubt he’s here, so I won’t change from that now.

We’ve seen this kid hit, we just haven’t seen it when he can’t make it his focus entirely and he worked so hard all off season I wonder about the strength in his legs at this point too.

Early of course, but I’ve seen young frustration before, and I’ve also seen how this team reacts to it, so did Rodolfo Castro, Nick Gonzales, Luis Ortiz. I’m at least open to hearing they want to give him a bit more rest but I’d really prefer he stay in MLB, I just don’t think the lesson he needs to learn resides down there.

Martin Perez’s hot start shouldn’t be a surprise

4-11-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

If you listened to me on Locked On Pirates during the off-season, you’d know I was very big on the Pirates acquiring Martin Perez, and for good reason.

For a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates, I am all about them acquiring veteran talent with solid track records, and they have done that quite a bit over the past couple seasons, acquiring Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, Rich Hill and now Perez, and the theme between the four remains the same.

All of them are soft-tossing left-handed pitchers, and the Pirates did well with the previous three additions, and albeit those additions were eventually traded, they still had impacts. Perez on the other hand though, feels different.

Perez is a career 4.40 ERA guy with over 1450 innings under his belt, including a stellar 2022 campaign that saw him receive his lone All-Star appearance, and he’s been one of baseball more consistent pitchers across his 13 seasons.

Of his 13 MLB seasons, Perez has 20 or more starts in seven of them, proof of his health being rather good throughout his career. 2023 saw him be buried in a loaded Texas Rangers rotation that saw plenty of deadline acquisitions, which opened the door in free agency for his eventual arrival to the Pirates.

Now, entering 2024, questions arose on if Perez could return to his 2022 All-Star form, and so far, he’s been electric.

Through his first three starts, Perez has thrown 19 innings, posting a 1.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, striking out 15 and walking only five along the way thus far, which includes a strong eight inning, one run outing on Tuesday.

To what should be no surprise to anyone, the biggest reason for his success early on has been something he’s done well his entire career, and that’s forcing ground ball outs.

According to StatCast, Perez is inducing ground balls at a 55.2-percent rate right now, which ranks in the 86th percentile among qualified pitchers while also missing barrels (5.2%) at a solid clip as well.

For context, excluding 2020, Perez has ranked in the 51st percentile or higher in ground ball rate in every season since 2015, so letting the defense work behind him has always been apart of his game.

We’ve also seen Perez work in just about every pitch in his arsenal, throwing four of his five pitches 14-percent of the time or more, those being his sinker(34.3%), cutter(27.7%), changeup(20.3%) and curveball(14.8%).

Most of his success has come from the sinker thus far, which he throws the most as you see above, allowing a measly .207 opponent batting average and zero extra base hits. Speaking of extra base hits, of the 18 hits Perez has given up this season, he has only allowed four extra base hits.

Perez is also allowing the third lowest barrel rate(5.2%) of his career and his lowest opposite field contact rate (22.4%) since 2019, so he’s done well keeping the ball in the yard and showed Tuesday that PNC Park should be a perfect fit for him.

So, to simplify it for those who may not enjoy advanced statistics, Perez is doing what he has done his entire career, induce ground balls, eliminate hard contact and limit the home run ball, all of which we’ve seen in his first three starts.

Now, is this sustainable for Perez? He’s a notoriously good starter early on in seasons, as he posts a career 3.74 ERA in March, April and May and a 4.99 ERA in June and July, so that will be something to keep a close eye on as the season progresses.

As for the present, Perez has been the best pitcher in the starting rotation to begin the season for the Pirates, and it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, seeing as he’s doing exactly what he’s done well his entire career and should continue to do so in a Pirates uniform.

Series Preview: Pirates (9-3) at Phillies (6-6)

4-11-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Before the divisional shake-up three decades ago, matchups with the cross-state Phillies were a regular occurrence with heated rivalry pitting the teams and fans alike against each other. While its been a long time since both teams were truly competitive at the same time, stakes are raised heading into this series as the Phillies look to rebound from a slow start while the Pirates try to prove their strong one is no fluke.

4/11
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) – 1-1, 11.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 17 Ks/2 walks, 0.94 WHIP
Phillies – Ranger Suarez (L) – 1-0, 11 IP, 4.09 ERA, 11 Ks/1 walk, 0.73 WHIP

4/12
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 0-0, 10 IP, 5.40 ERA, 3 Ks/4 walks, 1.00 WHIP
Phillies – Cristopher Sanchez (L) – 0-1, 9.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 9 Ks/4 walks, 1.61 WHIP

4/13
Pirates – Marco Gonzales (L) – 0-0, 11 IP, 2.45 ERA, 6 Ks/2 walks, 1.00 WHIP
Phillies – Spencer Turnbull (R) – 1-0, 11 IP, 0.00 ERA, 13 Ks/1 walk, 0.55 WHIP

4/14
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 1-1, 17 IP, 5.29 ERA, 17 Ks/7 walks, 1.59 WHIP
Phillies – Zack Wheeler (R) – 0-2, 19 IP, 1.89 ERA, 20 Ks/2 walks, 0.89 WHIP

Phillies:
Zack Wheeler – I did a double-take when I saw his 1.89 ERA but 0-2 record after 3 starts where he allowed as many runs as his team scored in those games combined (4) while posting Ace-type numbers. Spencer Turnbull is also an interesting case as his career walk rate (8.9%) is considerably higher than what he has so far (2.4%) but would be quite the turn-around for the former highly touted prospect.

Pirates:
Connor Joe – The team is 9-0 when Joe is in the lineup and magically 0-3 when he isn’t. While this likely is just a coincidence, his early season accomplishments have helped propel the Pirates forward as his 5 doubles are tied with Bryan Reynolds for the team lead and his .324/.444/.541 slash line speaks for itself.

Phillies:
Nick Castellanos – Having turned 32 last month, Castellanos is starting to show SEVERE decline in more than just his defense. Usually a strong starter with a career .282/.337/.467 line over the first month of the season, Castellanos currently has a paltry .154/.267/.154 line. After posting a 29 home run season last year, he doesn’t have a single barrel yet.

Pirates:
Henry Davis – When Davis was in Spring Training, he was RAKING on both sides of the ball. His defense behind the dish has been solid but his offensive proclivity has all but disappeared, netting only one hit over his last six games played with 2 walks and 8 strikeouts. Davis also has one of the highest whiff rates on the team (34.7%) but mostly missing on pitches in the zone as his chase rate (17%) is among the best on the team.

Key Injuries

Phillies:
Orion Kerkering might return to the team at some point this weekend as he works his way back from a reported right forearm strain. The back-end of the bullpen has Jose Alvarado (7.94 ERA) and Jeff Hoffman (2 blown saves) as the current closing corps so returning Kerkering would go a long way in solidifying that unit for the Phils

Pirates:
No one of note.

Who To Watch

Facing two southpaws out of the gate, it will be interesting to see if Edward Olivares can continue tapping into that power we saw in the game on Tuesday, when he blasted two home runs at 108.6 and 105 MPH with another long fly out traveling 105.5 MPH.

Carmen Mlodzinski Optioned to AAA

4-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Carmen Mlodzinski was a revelation when he was promoted to the Pirates. The 25 year old Hilton Head, South Carolina native had a fine rookie season for the club with a 2.25 ERA in 36 innings and he put his stake in the ground as the first of Ben Cherington’s first round picks to not only make the league, but stick too.

Now the Pirates have ended his rehab assignment and optioned him to AAA. A forearm scare is nothing to sneeze at and his velocity is ever so slightly down from where it was last season, but we’re also talking about 2 rehab innings and a guy that still touched 96 on the gun.

No, this is a different, in this case, Carmen is a victim of depth. There’s a lot of it.

I mean here’s a guy I said before the season we’d see as our best option to close games as the season played out, he’s been optioned and I’m not even miffed. Know what I mean?

Like who would go for him right now? Oh, hell, what am I thinking, Bednar right? I’m sure at least a few of you go there, again, they see this as something they’ll get their arms around, so for now, I’m ok with even this, if only because they have so many guys I’m comfortable with and about to reintroduce Colin Holderman too, it makes sense to just give him some extra time, work a few more innings, see if you can’t tick back up to 97-98 and then call on him when an injury or performance forces it.

Roansy Contreras, Josh Fleming and Aroldis Chapman are the only players who can’t be optioned from the bullpen to AAA. In other words, if the Pirates come to believe they can no longer use the first two anyway, they’d have to DFA or Designate them For Assignment, which removes them from the 40-man roster and gives every other team in the league a chance to claim them or deal for them.

Now, let’s be real, if David Bednar goes to AAA, it won’t be an option, it’ll be the IL. So that really leaves Luis Ortiz, Jose Hernandez, Ryder Ryan, Colin Holderman and Hunter Stratton who could be optioned for Carmen.

Honestly, again, I really really like Mlodzinski, but who you sending there? They’ve all been really good, again with the exception of David, but getting David right is important too, so it’s hard for me to just advise something for all I know they’ve identified and think they can fix in a couple bullpen sessions.

In about 11 days, Ryan Borucki will be eligible to come off the IL too. Doesn’t mean he will, but triceps irritation doesn’t give you the PTSD of UCL or second opinion seeking. He’ll likely require someone being optioned too.

I feel like Carmen will pitch meaningful innings for this club, but I’d also say aside from Borucki, he’s the last of the “excited to use” cavalry that currently acts as a reliever.

It makes me feel like we could see the team hold onto a guy like Bailey Falter in the pen and option one of these other arms to make room for Paul Skenes when they’re ready for that call up (earlier than you think I’d bet). Before you bite my head off, he has no options, and if he’s shown to be a relatively passible lefty, I could see them using the option process and those who have them to keep as much depth in house as they can.

You could also see them decide they can call upon some guys who are traditional starters like Quinn Priester or Braxton Ashcraft. You’d be surprised how many development things go out the window when you’re actually in a race and need help.

It always seems to be the case, but as I look at the landscape of the Pirates bullpen options, it feels like a place we’ll see them be shopping for in July. Even if it’s just more depth they can stash in AAA. Or, gives them a chance to option someone as depth and replace them with a veteran they acquired.

It’s shocking seeing good players optioned, but when you let yourself reason your way around it, I think you see why it makes sense. Roster management is so rarely about “the Best 26”, baseball’s roster rules don’t support that kind of Pollyanna fantasy.

Unless you want to lose good players for nothing and then buy more at the deadline, it stands to reason you better embrace working around the rules and using the options they provide to ensure you don’t run out.

In many ways you have to make decisions that ensure you have enough gas to get where you’re going without knowing the gas prices along the route. So you plan for more than you think you’ll need, pinch pennies on the road snacks and maybe stop using the Cruise control in Mountain country to save as much fuel as you can.

The worst thing that happens is you wind up where you were headed with a fist full of 20’s you didn’t get to spend. Hey, no harm no foul, enjoy that parasailing excursion ya know?

Carmen and all the guys who have options are a luxury, and how they use this flexibility needs to remain forward thinking, but that doesn’t make it hurt any less when someone you really believe in has to go to the minor leagues. Especially this guy, he’s every bit an MLB pitcher.

Much like Douglas MacArthur, He shall return.

What Earns a Call Up Changes as the Pirates Top Level Improves

4-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Liover Peguero has simply been playing out of his mind in AAA since the Indianapolis Indians got their season underway for 2024. In 42 PA he’s hitting .425 with a .550 SLG and an OPS at .979. Surprisingly, no homeruns, I mean you see a stat line like that and you almost just assume. Entering this season, Liover only had 30 PA at the AAA level, so he’s very early days here for his Indianapolis days anyhow.

I could and will talk about other prospects, but talking about Peguero will cover so many of the topics I want to touch on it just makes no sense to introduce all that without first laying a base here.

See, in 2022 a guy doing something like this in the minors unquestionably has a chorus line of fans screaming from the rooftops about manipulation or even the team wanting to lose, but as we sit here in 2024, it’s really hard to get there without ignoring some other realities.

Liover can play SS, and 2B right this second. That’s not to say he couldn’t learn another position, it’s just to say right now, that’s what he plays.

The Pirates currently have Alika Williams, Jared Triolo and Oneil Cruz on the 26-man Roster as middle infielders.

Oneil Cruz for at least this season is either a short stop or a DH, that’s it, that’s the list. You can pine for him elsewhere all you like. You can dream of his arm throwing from right field to home on the fly with all the accuracy he hasn’t shown throwing from second to first, but the Pirates simply aren’t going to move him to a new position this year, he’s just too important to mess with like that and best case for someone looking to supplant him short of an injury is to see him become a near full time DH.

Jared Triolo has had a rather pedestrian start to 2024 as the starting second baseman. If you’re looking for a crack for Liover or anyone I talk about who could start here to break through, this is it. Still, he hasn’t been bad, especially for a rookie. 49 PA, .250 AVG, .667 OPS. Again, not bad, not great, probably a bit above average for a rookie if we’re really honest. Certainly not numbers that will hold off Peguero long should both trends continue. 12 games in baseball does not often a trend make.

Alika is a backup. He’s here for two main reasons, first, he probably has the best middle infield glove in the system, and second, and this one is going to sound cruel, they aren’t concerned with him sitting for stretches of time. That part is key, and it’s why Triolo is the main crack if you’re looking for a performance based swap of players here. I mean we’re 12 games in and Alika has 14 PA, and he’s done ok with those very limited opportunities hitting .286 with a .714 OPS. Thing is though, if he lines out in his next at bat both those numbers fall off the table, that’s what happens when you barely play.

Is Peguero a better player than Jared Triolo, well, maybe but Triolo is the backup 3B too, so moving him out and or making him the part time player probably stunts the development they’re trying to do with him. Is he a better player than Alika? Offensively, I can’t imagine he isn’t, but defensively, he’s not there.

That’s 3 spots, 4 players and an awful lot of we need to see more.

Again, this isn’t the same as Josh VanMeter has been manning second base. He has no future here and he’s not doing anything productive, boom you make the call.

The MLB club isn’t dying for prospects to come up and save the day, not right now. You can think there’s a path to getting a nice amount of at bats for a kid, but at least early on, that’s not how they’ve used that extra spot, I mean, I just wrote how much Alika has actually played.

That time will come. It could be performance based, injury based or, Peguero could just have put numbers like that together for a month and the brass simply can’t sit by waiting for someone in the Bigs to step up more. Maybe they just can’t deal with Cruz throwing rockets at Rowdy Tellez’ feet anymore after a month and 8 errors so they bump him to DH and bring up Peggy. There are paths, there always are, but they certainly aren’t the same as they were 2 years ago.

To make this club now you have to do some outlandish stuff in the minors, and you probably need a little help from some guys on the Big club too. You don’t have to just do something outlandish, you probably at this point have to show you can sustain it for a while on top of it.

Some prospects like Jared Jones or Paul Skenes can rise above all this. Jared showed up to Spring Training a non-roster invitee. A player not on the 40-man, simply put, to make the team he had to prove someone else should lose theirs or at least that giving him a shot would have more value than keeping another player in the system. He did. Paul has that same kind of pedigree, and when he’s ready, the team is going to have to make a choice.

He will get the call this year, but let’s not lie to ourselves, if the starting pitching looks like they’re ok as a five man unit and it’s May 3rd, I doubt they’ll jump the gun here on Skenes. If that last start was the last good one we see from Bailey Falter, well, I think anytime is fair game.

When your team fills out their roster and things are going well, it’s not as simple as calling up everyone who looks good for a week, and that’s where we are.

I mean, jumping back to the middle infielder discussion, I didn’t even mention Nick Gonzales who has started out like a ball of fire, in 46 PA he has hit .390, a .457 OBP, 1.042 OPS and he’s even cleaned up his biggest issue with 4 walks and 7 strike outs.

I can’t even say Peguero has soundly beaten Nick out, let alone someone on the MLB roster.

If you want to dumb this down to Peggy is better than Alika, ok, that’s your bag, I’ll just keep my eyes peeled on the entire picture and rest easy knowing that was never and isn’t now the actual competition playing out.

There will come a time when the Pirates have to decide some of these guys are bench players, but man, that doesn’t have to be right now.

The moral of the story is, health permitting, we should start to expect much more ready for primetime looking rookies when they get the call, because most of them are going to play in the minors a hell of a lot longer than the several who debuted prior to 2024.

It’s a different world, and you can fight it or learn to live in it. Whichever you decide won’t change the outcome, it’ll just change how much you understand and accept what happens from here on out.

It’s not like it gets easier next year. Tsung-Che Cheng and Termarr Johnson will very likely be kicking at the door. Trades could happen to clear up room, or they could be in the exact same frustrating position these prospects we discussed find themselves now.

One thing I know for sure, every time I’ve thought my team had way too much of something, I’ve found out rather quickly half of them weren’t actually MLB good and a few got hurt, and a few just weren’t grasping it.

My advice, prospects are great, keep watching, keep waiting, keep hoping, but realize that for the first time since 2015, we shouldn’t be looking to AAA and AA like their timeline is solely tied to their performance, that stopped being true as soon as this team was filled with capable players and it’ll stay that way very likely through the end of the decade.

It’s very possible some of these guys are nothing more than currency to get a piece they need at the deadline or in the offseason. Their performance matters for that reason in addition to trying to get the call, but embrace now that you may very well not see guys who are every bit ready for a shot until a need crops up.

We in Pittsburgh have not had a system with this many talented players on the cusp of being “ready” in my memory. Not in the big run last decade, not in the early 90’s, again, not in my memory did I feel the MLB club was good and there was almost a complete team of prospects under a season and a half from being universally considered MLB ready.

The last point I’ll make is this, fans assume that some of this “overflow” talent will be traded for help, and it could, but don’t rule out some of the MLB talent with far less team control being moved instead to both make room for some of these guys and because in some cases those players could return more.

Great problems to have, in fact, probably the goal of this GM, now we get to see what he does with it and how he handles it.

David Bednar’s Struggles – What We Know, and What the Path Forward Might Look Like

4-9-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

You know a great place to start when you’re about to step into an emotionally charged subject? The facts.

Not my perception of the facts, not someone else’s interpretation of the facts, just the stated and verifiable truths.

  • According to Derek Shelton, David Bednar is not injured. He just said it today, so it would seem unlikely a phantom IL trip is in his future.
  • David has two MiLB options.
  • Bednar has blown 3 of 4 save opportunities in 2024.

Not a ton, but those are important to put at the top of our discussion. These aren’t emotion based or guesses, they’re very simply what have happened, and what we know.

The issue does not appear to be stuff. The ball is spinning, the velocity is there, the release point and finish isn’t. You’d worry a lot more about this long term or even for the rest of this year if either of those two things on the stuff spectrum were missing. Yes, yes, results absolutely matter, keep your pants on, I’ll get there.

The seemingly universal reason given for his struggles from the studio guys like Steven Brault and Michael McKenry, to Derek Shelton, to just about anyone with a microphone, is the complete missing of Spring Training because of his Lat injury, which again they claim is completely healed now.

The Pirates admittedly had options as Spring Training came to a close, they could send David to the IL or they could start the season with him on a scheduled as part of his rehab off day for opening day. They chose the latter.

Hindsight is 20/20 but if they had to do it over again, I bet they’d choose the former. I’d also bet that the injuries to Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman played a role in this decision. David’s IL stint could have only been retroactive a few days and I’d imagine that their thinking was a working back in David would be better than whatever the alternative would be.

Before we dismiss this entirely, it feels like we should time travel in our minds back to Opening Day and how nervous we were that the bullpen had taken so many injury hits. We’d lost Dauri Moreta for the season, feared Carmen might suffer the same fate and Colin Holderman suffered serious health issues when he contracted the flu in Florida. I’m sure the team had faith in guys like Ortiz, Contreras, Ryan, and Stratton, but, c’mon, it’s not been that long, that sounded shaky to you and I’m sure it wasn’t appealing to them.

So I can understand the thought process, but facts are facts, it hasn’t worked. And that’s going to force the team to get creative. If we’re honest, they’ve already been minimizing him so my guess is they aren’t seeing a lot to like in his side sessions and bullpens either.

I think we’ll see them avoid him for a couple days and work with him on the side, either pop him in a blowout (in either direction) or if they think he looks good enough believe it or not, they could go right back to him in a closing situation. I think where they are right now is, they need to see some things in practice before they see it in a big inning again.

Let’s say they don’t use him for 3-4 days, and they don’t like what they’re seeing on the side, then, then you might see an IL trip, retroactive to the 10th, but they won’t just contradict themselves like tomorrow.

We also know that Ryder Ryan was optioned after the game to AAA and the corresponding move will be announced Thursday. My guess is this is Colin Holderman coming off the IL so there will be another good option for the back end.

To me, that’s kind of the David Bednar on the field story, unfortunately it spawned some side stories and we should deal with them too.

The Booing

People immediately take a side on this stuff, and it’s both predictable and sad at the same time.

First, you have the “I Pay Good Money” people, most of which didn’t pay any money because they weren’t there.

Then you see the “If I screw up my job I don’t get to cry about getting yelled at” which is funny because I think you’d be hard pressed to find many jobs that aren’t so focused on coddling employees now that yelling at you actually happens, and even if I’m off base there, you don’t have 8,000 people over your shoulder while you feverishly click on your mouse trying to fix your mistake.

You’re both right, you can do whatever you like at a game, I just don’t really buy your reasoning like it’s some kind of tit for tat.

You see the “you can’t boo anyone who’s on your team” crowd, and while I agree with this as it applies to my own behavior, most of the time, this only serves to set up the first two dumb comments.

How about this one, “They weren’t booing him they were booing Shelton”. OK, maybe, but why did you start before he could by MLB rule remove him from the game? Had to face 3 guys remember? And it took three batters to tie the game. Thing is, I’m sure some of you really were booing Shelton, but that’s not how it comes across to those on the field, or on TV. I’d suggest starting a SHELLLLLLLLLLTTTTTOOOONNN chant or something, that way the 2 or 3 hundred of you who actually were jeering Shelton could separate yourselves from those booing the guy you drove to Market District to shake hands with 3 months ago. Oh, you were mad he left him in after the game was tied? Well, think back, that entire sequence from walk to hit by pitch to single and error happened in about 5 minutes. They could stall and get someone up, but probably not for the next hitter, who was also plunked. I guess what I’m saying is, if it was Shelton, at least admit you just thought David was a bad choice period.

Then Rowdy Tellez had some thoughts before David could even talk after the game.

In case you don’t feel like listening.

I love this. I love it because in every way Rowdy Tellez has become a leader on this team and my guess is knows a thing or two about having a fanbase eat out of your hand (2022 35 HR in Milwaukee) and then have them happy to hear you’ve been replaced and even jeer when you’re in the lineup while you’re dealing with an injury plagued season. Live comes at you fast, and the experience some of these veterans have can be invaluable if only because he can see and feel what David is going through right in that moment and doesn’t need asked to take some of the weight for him.

If you think Rowdy is ignorant that some of you will be more mad he said you shouldn’t boo than you will be at David’s performance today, you’re selling him short.

Yup, he hasn’t been here long, but just as you have a right to boo, he has a right to tell you he thinks its BS. Especially for this guy. A guy that everyone who signs here or has been here knows never denies a request from the team to represent them at an event.

Wave the terrible towel David. OK

Yell Lets Go Pens at PPG Beddy. Alright

Show up at 412 Food Pantry and distribute for a couple hours. Sure

Sign here, speak there, camp up here, season ticket holder that. For sure.

All the while being the most consistent player on the Pittsburgh Pirates from the time you first stepped on a mound until this unfortunate start to the season.

To me, he’s earned some understanding, and a bit of grace. You don’t have to believe he’ll be great here for the next five years or even this year, but man, don’t you think he’s laid enough track here to think he might just figure it out?

Look, do you, if there’s anything clear it’s that more than a few people who paid for tickets today decided booing was the way to go, so it’s not like you don’t have company here, but the Pirates fan in me really wishes it didn’t happen.

I didn’t like it for Austin Hedges (yes it was Shelton people, I remember, it was about using him not him), and I didn’t like it today. Clearly it’s not a homer thing with me, meaning I don’t think it sucks for David and it’s ok for Hedges. For me it’s just not a reputation I want our fan base to have.

To be clear, David didn’t say anything about the booing, Rowdy stole that thunder on the slight chance he would have, but you could see the hurt in his eyes listening to Tellez firmly lift up his teammate. Being traded home and then becoming a star here probably feels like a fairy tale every day, well, today some fans showed him the Brothers Grimm side of this one.

For probably the first time in his life he was booed in an MLB game and it was at home, in his hometown, in front of his people, by his people. Things you don’t think about in the moment, but players you hope will contribute significantly to your team’s cause probably aren’t all that motivated by such things.

Again, your right, but to me, nah, I’d rather us be better than that too Rowdy.

It may not be what I want the fan base to be, but I wasn’t there to stop it, and honestly, how does one stop it, should we shout OOB instead like the reverse will cancel it out? Bottom line, if you’re a person who doesn’t like booing, your only way to combat it is to show up and be louder than they are. You know, as if you’d clap or cheer while the meltdown is happening. It isn’t going away, even if we wish it would. Just like farting in church, one bad egg hurts the reputation of the entire pew.

Aroldis Chapman Should be the Closer

Before I start, many of you know I’m hardly a proponent of a “closer” to begin with, I like the matchup game with a collection of back end arms. So from the jump, I don’t really care about this. I’d be more than happy if nobody was a closer ever again.

As we sit here, Chapman is one of 3 left handed bullpen options. And more than anything, Chapman is as close as you can get in this game to a guaranteed strikeout when you need one.

I love how they’ve used Chapman, and if the 9th is a save situation over the next however long it takes to get David right happens, of course he’s a great choice. The guy is going to be a Hall of Famer for a reason.

Here’s the thing though, if they name him as such, then we don’t get him in a key situation like we saw on Monday night where he came in and struck out two batters to keep the Pirates lead right where it was. A base hit there and that game maybe starts heading back the other direction. That strikeout skill set was the only way out of that inning and he did it. That’s not a save, but I’ll be damned if it didn’t probably save the game.

So, I personally don’t care if it’s the 9th, I just want Chapman when they need him most. When the situation is most dire. If that’s closing a game, cool, if it’s in the 7th, I’m ok with that too.

Naming a guy though, man it just creates a crap storm of stupid and starts debates that don’t need to exist.

Closing

The main takeaway is David Bednar probably shouldn’t be in that mix for a while, and that of course is going to have Chapman taking on more of those opportunities, but I’d be shocked to see the team name him a closer, and frankly, after what you’ve watched since Bednar got here, I’m kinda shocked so many of you are ready to make it permanent right now.

I will say, relievers are volatile, it’s part of why Aroldis Chapman is so incredible in the first place, but you’re watching exactly why extending a closer is a difficult and often unwise decision.

Pittsburgh, you’ve waited a long time for a winning team, and you probably have one taking shape right in front of you.

Many of you spent the entire offseason definitively saying Rowdy Tellez, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez and Bailey Falter would be disasters. You spent much of the offseason predicting doom behind the plate and a horribly disfigured bullpen that went form a strength to a weakness on the backs of a few injuries and now 12 games into a season where your team is 9-3 and yes, could be 10-2 pretty easy, you’ve decided, let’s be big mad cause the first major thing to go wrong has cropped up.

That’s not how I want to live my life or follow this team. I watched a lot of crappy baseball on the way here, and I’m going to enjoy it now. Criticism and second guessing goes with all that, but man, I’m just not trying to get into the DFA him screaming and the immediate dismissals of 3 years of performance.

Calm down, this too shall pass, and if it doesn’t, David will find a new role, here or elsewhere. Maybe, if we can muster the maturity to allow it, he’ll be back when his playing days are over with a big old Yinzer smile for you.

When he gets that big cheer at next year’s home opener while most of the other non starters are announced and tips his cap, yes, I’m that confident he’ll be back and important this year, the sad thing is, he’ll know exactly how much that’s worth, and how long it lasts before it evaporates.

He’ll probably never forget that actually.

You paid good money though.

The Pirates Outfield Has a Problem, but its Actually a Good One

04/09/2024 – Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

The 2024 campaign has brought a ton of fun for the Pittsburgh Pirates thus far, as they are off to their first 9-2 start since 1992, the last time they won a division, with that division being the NL East and also featuring the Montreal Expos, so yea, its been awhile.

A big part of that success has been getting contributions from everyone on the roster, from back-end bullpen pieces to the multitude of outfield options at their disposal, the discussion I want to have with you today.

Since Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, the Pirates have had a good mix of talent in the outfield, but nothing that has stuck at all three positions to be a cohesive unit.

We’ve seen Bryan Reynolds perform for quite awhile now, but he’s truly the only outfielder since that trio that’s stuck around long-term. The rest of the outfield has remained a question mark throughout his tenure in Pittsburgh, but in the present day, other questions have risen from the group that don’t have much to do about performance.

The Pirates outfield group right now consists of Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor, Connor Joe and Edward Olivares, and heck, I’d even throw McCutchen in that conversation as well. Its a group that may not feature household names, but what I can tell you is that the majority of the league would take this outfield group over there’s in a heartbeat.

Reynolds will always be out there in some capacity, be it in either left field or right field, which we’ve seen both of early on this year.

The rest though, is where the question marks arise.

Suwinski is not good against left-handed pitching, and that’s no secret seeing as he has a career .179 average versus left-handers. Meanwhile, you enter Taylor, who struggles versus right-handed pitching with a career .233 average.

One would think Taylor was brought in to platoon with Suwinski in center field, and we have seen that dynamic play out thus far, as Taylor has 20 at-bats versus righties opposed to 8 at-bats versus lefties, while Suwinski has 27 at-bats versus righties opposed to 11 versus lefties.

So you can see Derek Shelton’s plan with center field is to have each guy face pitching they are good hitting against, but another dynamic comes into play when talking about the center field platoon.

Suwinski has light-tower power, that’s for certain, but he is not the greatest defender by any means out in center. Suwinski already has a -3 OAA this year with a -2 fielding run value via StatCast, so you derive that he just doesn’t have a plus glove.

Meanwhile Taylor’s calling card has and always will be his defense in center field, as he’s posted a +1 OAA already and has had higher than a +5 OAA or higher the past three seasons. He has also gotten a hot start with the bat this year, posting a .974 OPS through his first 32 plate appearances.

You can also tell the defense is lacking when Taylor isn’t out there, and Pittsburgh is averaging 0.91 errors per game at the moment, but that’s an entirely different conversation for another piece.

Suwinski and Taylor offer entirely different skillsets, which isn’t a bad thing whatsoever, but we haven’t seen Taylor since home Opening Day on Friday, but with right-handers on the mound since then, its no surprise. So I imagine the platoon dynamic between the two will continue, but if the defensive woes continue, I would imagine you see more of Taylor moving forward.

Now notice this is before I even mention the right field options, which would include Joe, Olivares and McCutchen.

Joe has created somewhat of a trend opening 2024, as the Pirates are currently 9-0 when he is inserted into the starting lineup and 0-2 when he isn’t. Is that more coincidence or is his inclusion actually that important?

Well, Joe has a .985 OPS over 45 plate appearances to start the year while being average defensively with a 0 OAA, so his inclusion in the lineup hasn’t been an accident, he’s producing, and producing in high leverage spots.

Its early, but in 18 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Joe is hitting .538 with a 1.513 OPS and 6 RBIs, so he’s not only been beginning a trend of winning, but he’s also been productive.

Meanwhile Olivares, who currently ranks in the 100th percentile in xBA and sweet spot percentage, has made quite the impact as well, posting a .804 OPS through 26 plate appearances. He has seen about equal work against both right-handers and left-handers as well, with 12 at-bats versus left-handers and 14 at-bats versus right-handers.

Olivares, much like Suwinski, is not known for his defense at all, so you sacrifice that with him in right field, but his power potential and so far, his ability to hit well against both left-handers and right-handers, makes it hard to keep him out of the lineup.

McCutchen has had a slow start to his 2024 campaign but has picked it up as of late as he is still in search for his 300th career home run.

He’s barreling up the ball at a 15.4 percent rate(88th percentile), but his 37.9 percent strikeout rate has been worrisome as he’s had issues catching up to the fastball.

We’ve seen Shelton have a willingness to sit McCutchen already this year, and with the other options available and playing well, it makes total sense.

Now McCutchen is a notoriously slow starter in his career, having hit below .256 in March/April in every season since 2017, so its a wonder as to if its his age catching up to him or a normal outcome based on his career outputs.

McCutchen has primarily been the designated hitter as well, with Tellez playing more first base defensively than I think we all expected, but one has to wonder if that spot has to open up to Olivares or Suwinski, who again lack defensive prowess, but can offer offensive output.

So in the headline, I said the outfield has a problem, but its a good problem, a problem any team in MLB would love to have, because the Pirates currently have five real outfield options for Shelton to play with everyday.

For instance in today’s matchup with Detroit, you’re getting Suwinski in left field, Taylor in center field and Olivares in right field with Reynolds DH’ing, so the Pirates can find ways to get all of these outfielders involved, and if they continue to produce, it will continue to be a good problem for your Pittsburgh Pirates to have.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Bucs Eclipse 3 Straight Opponents

4-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Hey! 8-2, not too shabby huh? Your Buccos have simply played a hard 9 innings in all 10 games they’ve played, and some of the teams they’ve faced don’t have the horses to run a relay race like that. It’s why their baseline for wins should rightly be closer to .500 than some pundits decided it would be pre-season.

This is a team that should not be seen as an “easy” series. If you have a tired bullpen entering a series against the Pirates, you better make sure you have a couple names on standby that you can call on from AAA.

If you haven’t managed to get a lead against the Pirates starter, I’m not saying you should head for the charter, but I doubt BetMGM is getting a bunch of 7th inning bets on your team to come back and take it.

Long way to go and much of this could change by next week if the wrong people get injured or fall into a funk, but right now, man nobody is looking forward to playing the Pirates. Ask the O’s.

Let’s get after it.

1. Losing Waived Players

The Pirates just traded Colin Selby to the Royals for Connor Oliver, a 22-year-old lefty drafted in the 17th round in 2023. His professional stats are a single inning with the Royals’ complex league late in 2023.

This is a confusing process for fans. Many will see this as a normal trade, you know, We have this guy we’re ok moving, and we want that guy from you. From the time a player is Designated for Assignment they are immediately removed from the team’s 40-man roster and a 7 day clock starts. In that time all 29 other teams in order of winning percentage get a chance to claim the player or make a deal for the player.

These deals aren’t going to be big, in fact when they happen you’ll almost always see the player coming back be a lottery ticket, meaning super far away from touching the league.

This makes sense, because if you DFA a guy to make room on your 40-man, it stands to reason you don’t want to bring back another player you have to find room for.

Point is, the Pirates roster is not what it has been. When they DFA players now, there won’t be many who sneak through unclaimed.

This isn’t to have you pine for Selby, he wasn’t good when he got a shot, but like I told you a couple weeks ago when talking about who they have on the short list for DFA to make room, he has a big arm, and everyone thinks they can fix a big arm.

Bailey Falter would be claimed in a heartbeat, and I don’t say that to paint a picture that the club should never do it, but instead to say, when they feel they have to go that route, it’ll be the end for him as a Pirate. Alika Williams would too although he has MiLB options remaining, so the fact so many of you immediately toss out the DFA tag for a serviceable player kinda says I need to write something like this.

The days of picking up endless waiver claims and having 5-10 easy choices to ship right back out are over for a while. At worst you’ll have 1-2 spots like that. And don’t think it won’t be a factor at the trade deadline, if this team wants to add they’ll almost assuredly send out some members of this 40-man in exchange.

So, get used to little deals like this. Guys who just became low man on the totem pole on a good roster in exchange for guys who have barely gotten their career started and won’t have anything to do with the 40-man for years.

That doesn’t mean there is no chance what they got back is helpful, in fact it’s very likely the Pirates scouted a guy like Connor Oliver themselves before last year’s draft and would love to have selected him. I’ll say this, if a team makes 10 deals like this and find one or two players who one day make the 40-man roster, hey, they’ve done well.

2. Interchangeable

The Pirates have thrown out myriad lineups and some have really generated some anger when they were posted. The standard tripe is to claim “The Pirates are trying to lose this one” or “This is the game they’re willing to lose”, and this year, honestly, I just don’t think they feel that way.

I can honestly say the players don’t, there isn’t a member of this 26-man who they don’t to some degree believe in this year, and I’m not just saying so because they managed to win every time they put out one of these “pathetic” lineups.

Early on you’ll recall I referred to this lineup as a “Yahtzee Roster”, meaning with the exception of Rowdy Tellez, I truly think you could just put 9 names in a cup, roll them out and probably have it come out a productive lineup. Derek Shelton clearly agrees, because he has shown very little deference to veterans like Cutch who he’s sat multiple times now. He’s pushed Henry Davis to the 9 spot. He’s used last minute additions to the roster to pitch a vital late inning opportunity with just as much confidence as his 10.5 million dollar lefty.

They don’t have players here who they feel don’t belong and fans would do well to understand that because you’re not going to stop seeing it. The team wants to keep everyone involved, and in some cases, they want to keep some players hungry.

You as a fan, may have been upset to see Andrew McCutchen benched for the second two games of the Home Opening Series, but to me that says this isn’t about emotions, or selling tickets, or reaching milestones, or veteran respect, it’s about winning and who’s best to get that W today.

I just can’t be mad about that thought process or execution.

Again, it’s much easier to “sell” when it’s working, there will certainly be times when it doesn’t, but I like it more for what is says about the Coach’s decisions and where they’re coming from than the results.

To be a Pittsburgh Pirate in 2024, you have to have value. If you’re here, they trust you can do the job you’re here to do, not to be hidden or avoided. That hasn’t happened under Cherington before this season.

Things like this gel a locker room. Instead of guys looking around and seeing the “stars” sitting and sulking through the contest taking their licks, these players look around and wonder who today’s “stars” will be.

Look no further than this. The Pirates have 5 saves this year, and they’ve gotten them from 5 different players.

Bottom line, if you’re here, they believe in you, and until someone shows them they aren’t deserving of that belief, you’re going to play.

Not to steal an internet meme here, but maybe let’s just let Derek cook, he’s served up nothing but edible creations so far.

3. Marco is Just Being Marco

I wrote this way back in January about Marco Gonzales in 5 Thoughts…

“After a fledgling start in St. Louis, he was traded to Seattle and that’s where he became a solid performer. From 2018 through 2022 Marco would start 131 games and deliver 765.2 innings, including being the opening day starter for the Mariners 4 times. Last year there was real fear he’d just never be right again, and when Marco is right, well, you won’t see him as a “5” or whatever.”

I think this is what we’ll see play out.

Fans here saw that two teams were willing to pay him to play elsewhere, you know like the famous Billy Beane to David Justice scene from Money Ball, and assumed he was going to be an epic failure or at best a stop gap until Skenes was called up.

Again, if Marco is healthy, I have every expectation he’ll be a key contributor for this club. His stuff is repeatable, he knows what he wants to do with every pitch and isn’t relying on Henry Davis or whomever is catching him to change his mind. He changes speeds, he keeps hitters guessing so well he sneaks that 91-92 MPH heater right past them in the zone.

He’ll have poor outings too, look, he’s not an ace, but for the most part, he’s going to exit games with the Pirates having a chance to win and folks that’s a starting rotation member that matters.

I could have just as easily written this about Martin Perez. I think it’s going to become pretty clear over the course of this month that the Pirates knew what they were doing with this rotation, a whole lot more than most of us gave them credit for. Even if it’s luck, well, they still had to place the bet right?

The funny thing is, they’ve brought in veteran left handed pitching every offseason Cherington has been here, and they’ve yet to really miss on any of them. Even way over the hill Rich Hill did better than almost everyone assumed while in Pittsburgh. Anderson, Quintana, I mean the Pirates have kinda proven they at the very least know what they want to work with and how to help them succeed with this club.

I for one won’t begrudge them one ounce of credit just because they were smart enough to take a guy other teams didn’t want to use, have them pay for most of his services and laugh all the way to the win column. He has a 15 million dollar option for next season and the assumption remains that the Pirates will decline it, but if he pitches the way he can, man, I’d hope they’d at least consider it, because while they have 3 lefties right now, as the season ends we’ll be back on Solometo watch for our next, might make sense to keep one you don’t have to bid for.

Long way to go, lots of baseball left to prove anything out, but keep it in mind, he’s the only veteran starter not named Mitch Keller who’s technically got a contract for 2025, and he just might be a smart keep.

4. It’s Up to Oneil Cruz AND His Teammates to Get Him Seeing More Pitches to Hit

Oneil Cruz has barely seen more than 2 or 3 pitches he could damage in any given game so far this season. Sure, he’s facing a ton of lefties and that presents it’s own set of challenges for the hulking short stop, but he’s also been actively pitched around aggressively.

He’s done well to make the most of what he’s gotten, and he’s expanded his zone so he had the opportunity. 14 hits in 42 ABs for a .333 average isn’t anything to sneeze at for a power hitter with a strikeout profile.

And he has struck out 15 times vs only 2 walks and I’m here to tell you he’s got to find a way to take even more walks. That ratio needs to be closer.

Opposition pitchers will take Oneil slapping a single to left off a down and away changeup all day long. First, he’s not always going to make contact, and second, it limits his damage, just like walking him would.

The Pirates are doing ok at scoring runs, they’ve even done well in 2 out situations, but until the rest of the team starts making teams pay for taking a pass on pitching to Cruz, he’s going to have no choice but to wait for a mistake or hit a good pitch. He’s capable of both, but if we’re hoping to see 30+ homeruns from him, he’s going to need to have opposing pitchers that know Reynolds, Hayes, whomever are going to bring him around to score a hell of a lot more.

Again, Cruz is doing well and dealing with the way he’s being pitched but frustration builds.

Believe it or not, just yesterday Cruz passed his number of plate appearances for 2023, and honestly while he’s struck out more and walked less, he’s actually been more productive.

The main point here is Oneil is dealing with something most players with crazy power do, he’s seeing that learning to be patient, learning to identify pitches, covering the plate, seeing both arm side offerings, well, those things are just the beginning of what you have to do to become a player you consider a super star. Those players have to learn how to create damage on less than ideal pitches and that’s why Cruz is so exciting. He does that almost by accident as it is.

A little help from his friends could help see a lot more of the pitches he can destroy.

5. Third Base Coaching

Mike Rabelo is the Pirates Third Base Coach and Field Coordinator. Much like Joey Cora before him, when a guy is thrown out at home he sucks, and when he holds a guy up, he sucks and when they score nobody mentions him unless he was putting up the stop sign and the player ran through it and scores, then he’d suck for that too.

In many ways, being a third base coach is like being President of the United States, no matter what you do, half the people hate you and if you screw up, make it more like three quarters.

As with Joey before him, he’s coaching under the overriding philosophy of the team which is stated to be “Aggressive”.

Now, what that’s supposed to mean is if it’s 50/50 that a guy could make it or it would take a near perfect throw to get the runner, it’s supposed to be a send. Essentially, the Pirates think they’ll get more runs by pushing the envelope than they would if they only tried to score when it was obvious.

In theory, I totally get that, in practice, I think Rabelo probably misjudges this a bit too often on both sides. Really, most every third base coach does.

So, a couple things in Rabelo’s defense here before I get into a couple things that I feel go against him and the team’s philosophy as a whole.

  • He’s also the field coordinator, so there are probably plenty of people who blame him for errors too. But what it really means is he’ll individually work with guys on technique, identifying the right play situationally, positioning based on range capabilities and hitter tendencies and vocally, he’s given a ton of credit for Henry Davis’ maturation as a catcher because of direct work he did with Rabelo and others all off season.
  • He doesn’t often allow mistakes to change his ethos over there. That’s not to say he’s never gun shy after a couple plays at the plate going against the Pirates, but he pushes through it most of the time.

Now for some of the bad…

  • The Pirates philosophy doesn’t allow for situational differences. Meaning if that 50/50 situation crops up in the 8th down 1, the thought is he should send. So this is more team than Rabelo, but he’s still the one deciding it’s 50/50, so I can’t say he has no control or judgement here.
  • I don’t get the impression that he does a great job of seeing the whole play. For example, in Sunday’s contest he sent Jared Triolo who was running from first base on an Oneil Cruz double. It was clear Triolo felt he needed to hold up a bit just in case that ball got caught, and it’s not like Mullins hadn’t made several great plays in the series already, but Rabelo sent Jared as though he’d been chugging full bore from first and he got nabbed at the plate by a country mile. It still took a good relay and initial throw, I could even call it 50/50, but I couldn’t help but feel Mike missed that Jared held up a bit.

You won’t find a third base coach in MLB that fans think is doing a wonderful job. Again, like POTUS, the gig just isn’t set up for being adored. It’s a visible spot, arguably more than even the Manager, but it’s not a place where you’re going to win a lot of hearts and minds.

More than anything, it’s a position that would be filled should he be fired, by another guy tasked with making all the same judgements, and all the same ethos, along with the simple hope this guy would see it more right, more often. The benefit to the team may be miniscule, and given his other duties, it may even be a detriment.

That’s not to paint a picture that I’m all in on Rabelo and how dare you even suggest they move on from him, it’s just to say, I think the decisions have to be much more black and white to see them move on in season, and if it costs them a division or playoff spot, well, let’s just say there will be about 30 things I can list off that caused it before I get to Rabelo sending a guy or holding a guy here and there.