Oneil Cruz Keeps Eliminating Reasons to Think He Won’t Succeed

3-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Oneil Cruz has been slow walked back into action this Spring, that much is clear, but he’s also made the most of his opportunities and I’d contend, removed almost all doubt he’s healthy, strong, and more important, ready to face MLB pitching.

When we talk about Oneil, let’s start by being brutally honest, this is a guy who’s only had 410 Major League plate appearances, it’s hard to consider him a finished product, and after missing the vast majority of an MLB season, anyone who has question marks about how he’ll perform is completely justified. Can he run? Can he field? Will he have to rest a lot? Man it’s been a long time since he faced live pitching, how’s this gonna look? All valid, all real.

All that being said, when a guy is showing you he has answers to some of those questions, you should be ready to accept those answers.

I’d like to start out here by talking a little about his projections. I’ll admit here, I’m at least a little doing this to show how very much so these projections are barely worth the electronic paper they’re printed on. Players with no MLB track record or very little are going to be off. Guys who had seasons cut short by injury, well, they’re very unforgiving.

Baseball Reference has him getting 256 PAs, with only 11 homers and a .248 Average.

Zips has him at 475 PAs, with 19 HR and a .245 average. STEAMER 550 PAs, 23 HR and a .251 average.

Reference seems to assume he won’t be healthy. Zips he’ll need a lot of rest. And STEAMER suspects he’ll play a lot but be no better than he was as a rookie, maybe even a step back.

They’re all over the map, almost entirely based on his meager track record and it’s really up to you to believe any of them are going to be close to accurate.

I’m just here checking boxes.

Cruz has shown he can run. He’s shown he can field, even if he still has some of his inexplicable snafus from time to time. And lastly, man, he can hit. His eye looks good so far at the dish, he’s largely spitting on stuff that plagued him in 2022, and to be completely fair, in his admittedly very short sample of 2023 he showed better selection at the dish, but nobody could know if it was safe to assume he’d come back looking like he’d done this recently. To his credit, he has.

Under no circumstances am I claiming this kid isn’t going to hit a roadblock or speed bump, but he looks a whole lot like the kid who was ready to dominate for a season entering 2023.

This team looks like they have a better offensive unit than what they entered 2023 with and that in and of itself should help Oneil. Not being the one guy you have to keep from beating you could really jump start him and give the entire team a boost.

The biggest question remaining to me is can he stick at short stop. I know he’s going to start there, but that question simply has to be answered this year, whether that be negatively or affirmatively. Either way, this is either the beginning of Cruz’ journey to being the everyday SS for a few years or the beginning of finding a place for him to play.

Thing is, he doesn’t have to be perfect, he just needs to be good. If he isn’t, we could start to see the team experiment and experimenting doesn’t pair well with winning.

Every time he steps in the box, he could change the game and every time he does, he’ll take another step closer to being an answer as opposed to a book of questions.

Spring training numbers are over estimated, overblown and often over sold, but when the score is really more about checking boxes, it’s easy to see Cruz is ticking them one by one.

It’s not as simple as saying this team goes as Cruz goes, but he sure could mask a whole lot of issues if he’s even 75% of what we hope.

Time to Turn the Clocks Forward on the Pirates

3-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I was just having a conversation with my podcast partner Jim Stamm last week about Marco Gonzales. I’m sure you’re not riveted, but bear with me, I’m going somewhere I promise.

We were discussing what the Pirates would do if they got a month or two into the season and Marco just isn’t cutting it. A certainly reasonable supposition right? None of us hope that’s the outcome of course, but when you already feel something is likely, or even fairly plausible, it’s good to explore it.

The thing that caught me almost mid sentence was that we both, almost without thinking started making the assumption that the team would probably just keep trotting him out there, maybe even stick him in the pen.

Here’s the thing though, I don’t think that’s true anymore, not where they are now.

This isn’t 2021 anymore, and as much as I keep hearing pundits scream “It’s Year Fiiiiiiiiiivvvvvvvvveeeeee!” over and over like it’s some sure fire reason the team should be doing more, almost all of them, including me honestly, have completely neglected to think about some things that very likely will be different at this stage.

Let’s say for instance that the Pirates start the season with a rotation of Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras. Save your energy arguing about the last 2 on this list, it’s just laying a baseline for conversation.

Prior to this season, we’re probably really safe making the assumption that even performing poorly the Pirates would push through with Marco. Deal with his issues, maybe piggyback him, essentially make sure they got their 3 million dollars worth. In addition, prior to this year if looking to make a change, you’re likely looking at an NRI who was plopped in AAA or a prospect probably not ready for primetime as your primary options for an upgrade.

Well, this year, it won’t be easy to ignore that they do very much so have options. More than that, it’ll be hard to not recognize that the team around this struggling player has more talent than it has in close to a decade. Meaning, it’s not just about the money, it’s also about not wasting the talent they have amassed.

This franchise can’t afford to make that mistake. And it will outweigh the fact Bob might weep over 3 million dollars being wasted. Before your inevitable joke, he ate more than that just firing Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly.

It’s the same reason, despite all the GM and Manager double talk, Henry Davis will easily win and hold the starting catching job on this club, because he’s the best one they have and there’s little to no benefit to going another direction.

If Marco struggles, this team will have, in my scenario of the original starting rotation anyway, Quinn Priester in reserve. If he was the only one, ok, maybe you sit on your hands and let Marco struggle a bit longer. You know, the thinking being, you’re stranded in the woods with one flare to fire, so you better make sure someone is around to see it before you fire it. If you have 3 or 4, ok, maybe you fire one off early on. Use one to start a fire and so on and so forth.

That’s the position the Pirates are in entering 2024, they do have 3 or 4. They can afford to fire off a quick one just hoping. In fact, in their case, they can’t afford not to, the food rations are running very low.

Jared Jones and Paul Skenes are going to be very hard to hold back if they stay healthy and I could add more to that list, it just isn’t necessary to make the point.

If the team scores runs the way it looks like this offense could, pitching can’t be allowed to let them down. Further, if the Pirates offense is struggling but for some reason we’ve all been dead wrong and the pitching is killing it, well, it’ll be hard to keep guys like Cheng or Termarr from getting a crack if they look like they deserve one.

You don’t have to believe everything is going to go the Pirates way in 2024, I certainly don’t, but you do have to see they have an awful lot more options than they did just a year or two ago, and they have enough established talent already here that there is ample pressure to not waste an opportunity.

The killer here is, all of these factors should have probably seen the club add more pieces this offseason to address the holes they had.

For that reason alone, your skepticism they’ll do the right thing should a guy like Gonzales struggle is well earned.

One final point.

Last year when the club started 20-8 Ben Cherington famously said they, meaning the team, didn’t expect that in 2023. They didn’t expect that the 2023 team was going to compete for anything meaningful and as if upholding their prophesy was of primary importance, the team did nothing to fortify the club after that start, nothing to push for a goal they didn’t set before that historic start.

This year, they do believe they have a team that can compete for a playoff spot, and even the division title. On the record.

This should spark a change in how they handle fortifying the club as the season rolls on.

Should and would aren’t the same thing of course, but the context clues are all there.

Long story short, as we look at individual situations that crop up as the year rolls along, I encourage you to not shut yourself off to every possible option, if only because I don’t believe the team will at this point.

This is a Different Ke’Bryan Hayes We’re Watching

3-9-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Every year when guys show up to Spring Training, you see changes. Sometimes they’ve changed a batting stance, added some muscle, worked on a new pitch, and sometimes they show up just sounding different.

It’s that kind of Spring for Ke’Bryan Hayes. He’s always been a “quiet leader” and so is Bryan Reynolds, so color me surprised to hear him wearing the leadership role we all hoped he was quietly carrying on the outside with a bit of opened up pride and confidence.

He’s talking about setting an example for the youngsters, being a leader on and off the field and in general, being a reason this thing goes where it’s supposed to.

All of that stuff is easier when you’re performing of course, and Hayes certainly has. In 20 plate appearances this Spring he has 3 dingers, and no strikeouts. He’s stroking the baseball all over the field, even his outs are often hard hit baseballs.

He’s done it against lefties, righties. Seasoned MLB pitchers and prospects trying to make teams. Pulling balls into the jet stream in Bradenton, and roping balls over the right field wall on a line.

Other players have taken notice too.

See, Ke’ isn’t relying on the team around him to improve this team’s lot in life, he’s just showing this is the year where all the things he’s worked his entire life to master have come together and he’s going to lead the charge.

Here was Hayes talking about his recent performance…

“Just being in a good spot,” Hayes said. “The last couple games, it felt like the ball was getting deep on me because I was leaving my backside. The last few days, I’ve tried to stay back, so I have more space to work with.”

Instead of looking lost when pitchers adjust, he’s learned so much about his own swing through the years that he now has the experience and ability to make adjustments and do so in game.

The last homerun he hit was on a 1-2 Sweeper down and in, a pitch that even early last year he might have swung over top of, instead he adjusted to it and roped it out at 108 MPH.

Pitchers have tried the old book on him. Sliders down and out of the zone, he spits on it. Sliders or changeups down and in, he’s not afraid to go down and get it. High fastballs, yeah, no issues, he’ll get after that too.

Covering the plate, adjusting to being attacked differently, all I can say is, that’s why you don’t pretend you know what a player is going to be when they’re struggling as a rookie. As we sit here, entering Hayes’ 5th season of MLB play, I believe we’re about to get our first glimpse at what his ceiling could look like and at 27 years old, he could very well stay there for half a decade.

It doesn’t really matter who gets credit for it. You want to hand it all to Jon Nunnally, ok. Credit his dad, alright. To me, nobody deserves credit for what Hayes has developed into but Ke’Bryan himself because one thing you could never say about Ke’ is he didn’t work hard to improve.

As we enter 2024, don’t be surprised if Ke’Bryan looks a lot more like the 2020 sneak preview we witnessed than the 2022 version who struggled to be productive when he took his glove off.

And this guy is simply huge to this whole thing coming together. Nobody has more potential to change the offensive fortunes of the Pittsburgh Pirates than Oneil Cruz, but Hayes playing at or near his ceiling won’t be as far off from that as you’d think.

He’ll blow his projections for this year out of the water, and I don’t care which one you look at. This is a different Hayes.

For Better or Worse, the Components of This Pirates Roster are Likely All Here

3-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

I’m not breaking news to you here, in fact I just wrote this in Five thoughts two weeks ago… “The Pirates may ultimately decide to not add, every passing day makes it seem more and more likely”.

I guess you could say adding Eric Lauer made this false already, but I also think you can say that addition isn’t in the spirit of the type of move being discussed.

The spots I was most worried about entering Spring were 1B, 2B, C and SP, I think some of you would probably add Outfield in some way shape or form to that list, whether that be a center fielder or right fielder. I wasn’t as concerned about the last part, but I’ll discuss it anyway just to cover all the bases.

Today, what I want to do is talk about all these spots, try to explain why the team might feel they’re ok heading into the season, and I’ll try to show the reasons to remain concerned they haven’t done enough.

Look, either way, they’ve made it relatively clear that the Pirates aren’t in hot pursuit of anyone at the moment and largely, this group of players is what we have to work with.

Starting Pitching

Why They Might Think They’re OK – This one is simple, if not overly hopeful. The starting rotation will likely be Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez, and then two of Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras. I know, I know, let me get through it.

What changed here for the Pirates since Spring started is their immediate depth. Jared Jones, who Pirates Skipper Derek Shelton recently said was in the competition for the opening day rotation, well, he’s shown the club if he doesn’t win a spot outright, he won’t be long.

Paul Skenes is likely in the same boat.

If they feel one or both of these guys is part of the very near term, I’d have to say that’s the best way to explain why they might not be super passionate about filling it.

Toss in cheap here if you feel the need, it’s certainly not false.

Reasons to Remain Concerned – Again, easy. Aside from you know, actually pitching well, innings are also something we should be concerned with. Relying on youngsters might be dicey for both sides of this coin. Some of these NRI’s they’ve brought in along with some of the returning from the IL arms could help provide those innings, but its not without risk. Lots of it. I can understand thinking the youth could step up and leaving room for it to happen, but if truly competing this year is the priority they painted, these are risks you don’t take. I’d still sign another.

Outfield

Why They Might Think They’re OK – This is a case of throwing a bunch of guys against the wall in the hopes someone sticks. The club feels they have two starters in the outfield, Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski of course, and further, they believe Jack can handle CF. That leaves Conner Joe, Andrew McCutchen, Edward Olivares, Gilberto Celestino, Ji-hwan Bae and whomever else you might want to add like Canaan Smith-Njigba or Matt Gorski, to eat up what it’ll take to fill the position, at least early on anyway. I can see the logic here, again, the disconnect is in their stated goals.

Reasons to Remain Concerned – Obviously that nobody grabs a spot, but there’s good reason to believe between all those options, they’ll wind up with league average production out there. The biggest reason for overt concern to me though is proven depth. A Reynolds or Suwinski injury takes this doable proposition and turns it into very unlikely to look ok.

Catcher

Why They Might Think They’re OK – First off, Henry Davis has looked great behind the dish, and at the plate. We couldn’t have said this 2 weeks ago and had it be anything more than a hopeful assumption. Yasmani Grandal is already nicked up and my expectations for his contributions were already so low I almost don’t even see it as worth talking about. If they wind up with Davis and Delay to start the season, it’ll be better than they’ve been behind the dish since at least Stallings, maybe even Cervelli.

Reasons to Remain Concerned – Henry’s legs. If Grandal is hurt, or if Cutch can’t play the field much, Henry is going to wind up catching probably a bit more than they’d like this year. Building up the number of games you can catch isn’t a lot different than teaching a pitcher to hit new innings milestones. The legs get tired and it is often reflected in the hitting. That’s where the power comes from so my main concern with him would be he tires. And yes yes he’s in great shape, that’s still a workload he’s never in his life been asked to carry. I fully expect a fade.

Second Base

Why They Might Think They’re OK – There were so many options, I think it’s fair to say almost everyone had a list of 1-3 guys they thought could step in and take second base over. Maybe that’s narrowed for you now. For me I’m down to 2, and I don’t mean all the others can’t work their way back in at some point, but to start I believe it’s down to Triolo and Peguero, both of whom I believe will make the club.

Reasons to Remain Concerned – Having a ton of options, doesn’t mean you have a good choice. More than Spring, this season will clean up the scrap and clear this picture up. The biggest reason to be concerned is that Jared Triolo could easily become the starter at 3 other positions if there is an injury, but even then, I think they’re deep enough to survive and maybe even thrive through it.

Eric Lauer signs minor-league deal with Pittsburgh Pirates

03/08/2024 / Ethan Smith @mvp_EtHaN

The Pittsburgh Pirates made yet another off-season pitching addition on Tuesday, bringing in former San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer on a minor league deal.

Lauer, who turns 29 this season, battled shoulder and elbow issues throughout the 2023 campaign, a campaign he’d like to put behind him. His 6.56 ERA in 42.1 IP along with a 1.671 WHIP were among just some of his worst statistics of his career, minus 2020, but Lauer has been a formidable starter before.

He holds a career 4.30 ERA in his six professional seasons, having his best time in Milwaukee in 2021 and 2022, when he ERA was 3.19 and 3.69 respectively. Those were also the only seasons his ERA+ was in triple digits, so the Pirates hope he can regain some of his past form.

Lauer’s offerings are a four-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and slider, while he also mildly worked in a changeup last season. He tends to stick with the fastball, cutter and curveball, something new from last season as the prior two saw the slider become a more prominent selection in his pitch arsenal.

Leaning back into the slider may help Lauer regain some of his strong play, seeing as he hasn’t allowed an opponent’s batting average above .173 since 2020 with the offering. Meanwhile the curveball has been tagged a ton the past two years, allowing a .412 and .324 opponent batting average the past two years.

Keeping his strikeout rate in the mid-20s would also go a long way for Lauer, and that will surely be helped by regaining some velocity, as he tends to sit in the range of 92-93mph but dropped to 90.8 last season.

No one expects Lauer to flash ace potential by any means, but if he can regain some of his past form from before 2023, he could wind up being a valuable depth option in the rotation, adding to the already loaded battle for the final two spots that features names like Josh Fleming, Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz and even Jared Jones.

This signing of course is not a flashy one, but one could expect Lauer to get a few starts here and there if he regains past form and the Pirates need someone to fill innings, which Lauer has done well in the past and could do so again with the right adjustments.

He has to break the roster before anything of course, but no harm no foul on this signing if you ask me, so we’ll see what Lauer can offer going into 2024.

Breaking Down the Updated 2024 MLB Pirates Pipeline Top-30 Prospects List

3/6/2024 – Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Prospects have dominated the scope of discussion for the Pittsburgh Pirates for the better part of the past half decade.

Every off-season, we see multiple outlets release rankings for MLB’s best prospects, from MLB Pipeline, who we’ll use today, to Baseball America, FanGraphs and more.

MLB Pipeline annually updates each team’s top-30 prospect rankings before the start of the season, while updating the list as prospects graduate or players play above or below their initial ranking.

For now, the Pirates top-30 has plenty of names we’d consider “household names”, but also some prospects who the fanbase overall may not know just yet, but could in the coming seasons.

So let’s take a look at what MLB Pipeline thinks are the top-30 prospects in the Pirates minor league system.

The Top Five

RHP Paul Skenes, 2B Termarr Johnson, RHP Jared Jones, LHP Anthony Solometo, RHP Bubba Chandler

Most of you reading this piece know these names, seeing as all five of these players were also featured in MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list that came out earlier this offseason.

The Pirates system is and will continue to be headlined by Paul Skenes, the number one selection in the 2023 MLB Draft and arguably the most highly touted pitching prospect since Stephen Strasberg.

It was announced Tuesday that Skenes would start the 2024 season in the minors, which is the right decision, but his debut trajectory will be much shorter than what the average fan is accustomed to due to his talent and the need for rotational help as the season progresses.

Termarr Johnson should continue to garner attention locally, and nationally as well. Johnson has showcased some of his skills with the bat this spring and should continue to progress through the system in 2024 as he continues to hit for contact and power with potentially elite bat-to-ball skills.

Jared Jones is the likeliest to debut in 2024 of this top-five, seeing a step forward in 2023 with a 3.85 ERA in 126.1 IP last year.

His velocity has flashed in spring thus far, seeing him even touch triple digits on the radar gun. Jones four pitch mix also offers further optimism to becoming a top starter in the Pirates rotation, but the progression on his off-speed pitches to become complimentary to his above average fastball, slider combination will determine just how quickly he comes up in 2024.

Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler round out the top-five, and both were sent to minor league camp as part of the first cuts of spring.

Neither Solometo, nor Chandler, should debut this year, but both have high upside and had good season’s last year, so I would expect a heavy dose of the duo at AA Altoona through 2024 as they continue to progress in their own areas.

Both should also push for the rotation in 2025, making the Pirates future outlook for the rotation, even next year, even more positive then how most currently feel about the group.

6-10

RHP Thomas Harrington, RHP Braxton Ashcraft, SS Mitch Jebb, SS Tsung-Che Cheng, SS/3B/2B Jack Brannigan

The top-seven of the Pirates prospect list is dominated by pitching, and that continues with Thomas Harrington.

Becoming Campbell’s highest selected pitcher in 2022 at 36th overall, he arguably has the most diverse pitching arsenal of anyone in the system, having the ability to throw five different offerings.

His velocity currently sits around 93-94mph, topping out at 95mph, something you’d like to see an uptick in but is not the biggest deal if it doesn’t increase. He tends to mix in his sweeping slider and changeup alongside the fastball while mixing in a cutter and curveball as well, so if he mix those pitches well and throw each offering consistently, he should have no issue in at least becoming a back-end rotation piece.

Braxton Ashcraft comes in at seven, and I spoke about Ashcraft on Locked On Pirates a bit on Tuesday, due to the fact I think he can make a real impact for the Pirates in 2024.

Ashcraft has dealt with multiple serious injuries as well as the missed COVID year in his young career, but a resurgent 2023 that saw him post a 1.35 ERA over 20 innings in AA and a 2.39 ERA overall awarded him a 40-man roster spot this winter.

Like Harrington, he has multiple pitches he is confident in throwing, but most impressive was his 1.9 BB/9 last year, so he showed a strong ability to keep the ball in the zone. If Ashcraft continues to hone his craft and lean into his athleticism, he could become a staple in the Pirates bullpen faster than you might think.

Mitch Jebb follows behind Ashcraft, and the Michigan State product already has the highest hit tool (60) in the Pirates system.

The 2023 2nd-round selection has great bat to ball skills, being a primarily line-drive hitter who doesn’t strike out often, if at all, while also getting on-base via the free pass. He couples those attributes with above average speed, stealing 11 bases last season in 34 games with Low-A Bradenton.

Jebb is further away then some other bats in the system, but he could be anything from a shortstop to a second baseman to maybe an outfielder, but he and the Pirates have plenty of time to see what he becomes.

Tsung-Che Cheng slots in at nine and folks, this kid has some high potential.

I’d argue Cheng has the best glove in the middle infield in the system, and his 60-fielding grade would agree. Not only that, he also has a bat that is no slouch either. Cheng had an .808 OPS last season with Bradenton and Greensboro, hitting 13 homers while having a 1.006 OPS away from Greensboro, so the kid can hit. If his offense can continue to impress and the glove stays consistent, he could be a fun player for this Pirates team as soon as next year.

Jack Brannigan falls into the same category as Cheng in my opinion, and he slots in at 10, having solid fielding skills while also flashing offensive potential.

Brannigan was a reliever in college, hence the 70-grade arm, and he’s played third base, shortstop and second base in his minor league and Arizona Fall League time.

A .914 OPS in 2023 with 19 HR and 54 RBIs offers optimism that his bat can play alongside the glove, its just a matter of seeing it in the upper-levels of the system while also wondering where he’ll play with Ke’Bryan Haye occupying third base for the foreseeable future, but Cheng and Brannigan could create an even bigger log jam in the middle infield if they both pan out as regular big leaguers.

11-15

RHP Mike Burrows, OF Lonnie White Jr., RHP Zander Mueth, LHP Hunter Barco, LHP Michael Kennedy

Leaving the top-10, it becomes clear this system is dominated by pitching.

Slotting in at 11 is Mike Burrows, a player many believed could debut last year but was sidelined with Tommy John Surgery before getting a real shot to do so. Burrows was a 40-man player after a strong 2022, but he likely won’t return to action later this year, pushing his debut to likely 2025.

Lonnie White Jr. comes in at 12, and the former football player, who almost went to Penn State just for that, has football speed, having the highest run grade(70), in the entire system.

Playing only 11 games from 2021-2022 due to injury, White Jr. finally stayed relatively healthy in 2023, appearing in 61 games, 44 of those for Bradenton. His calling card will always be his speed, but he also flashed a bit of power potential last year, hitting nine homers. He likely profiles as a center fielder with his top-end speed, he just has to stay healthy and continue to check boxes as far as improvements are concerned.

2023 comp-B selection Zander Mueth comes in at 13, and honestly, I don’t have much to say about Mueth expect that he already has a fastball that tops out at 97mph, a sweeping slider that has action and a changeup in the mid-80s. Mueth won’t debut for awhile, but he should have upside if he can control those pitches better moving forward.

Left handers Hunter Barco and Michael Kennedy round out the top-15, both with ETAs 2026 or later. Barco is a University of Florida product who elicits a ton of ground-ball outs with a sinking fastball while Kennedy, a high school product, has similar offerings despite needing some more work on his off-speed selections. Both will be interesting to watch at the lower levels of the system for sure and if they pan out, it could create a strong, layered pitching system in Pittsburgh.

16-20

OF Shalin Polanco, SS Yordany de los Santos, RHP Jun-Seok Shim, 1B/3B/C Garrett Forrester, LHP Jackson Wolf

If you’ve ever spoken to me about Pirates prospects, you know I love Shalin Polanco and his potential.

Coming in at 16, Polanco was a top-10 international prospect in 2021 and had his first, full season of professional ball last year. His 12 homers along with a .762 OPS at Bradenton impressed, but bringing down his strikeout-rate will be huge for his development.

He profiles more at the corners in the outfield, having had time at all three positions, but keep an eye on Polanco and his power, as I believe its sneaky good and could play moving forward with the right adjustments.

Yordany de los Santos comes in at 17, being the fourth-ranked shortstop in the system. He hasn’t done anything overly impressive, but the team decided to give him ample opportunities in the Florida Complex League and the Florida State League, which are great opportunities for youngsters to face top, young talent.

He already flashes high exit velocities and bat speed, with the biggest question being a potential development of power. I also don’t know if he’ll be a shortstop long-term, but he’s only 19, so he has plenty of time to figure that out.

Pitcher Jun-Seok Shim sees himself 18th in the system, and Shim was ranked very highly in the 2023 international signing period.

Choosing to sign with the Pirates instead of the KBO, he already has a four-pitch arsenal with a ton of power potential as his fastball already sits consistently in the mid-90s. He couples that with a 12-6 curveball and a slider, while mixing in a changeup that needs a ton of work.

Shim has plenty of development time ahead of him, but if he can continue to hone his craft and become a true power pitcher, the Pirates may have found an intriguing international signing in the coming years.

Garrett Forrester ranks 19th as the highest ranked first baseman in the system, having experience at 3B and even catcher collegiately.

A 2023 third rounder, Forrester left Oregon State walking more than he struck out, which I absolutely love. I’d expect Pittsburgh to lean into first base time with Forrester, seeing as the depth in the system and overall isn’t great, but Forrester, like the others ahead of him in this category of five, has plenty of reps ahead of him to find a defensive home and bring those hit tools to the professional level.

Left-hander Jackson Wolf, a 40-man player who was optioned to AA-Altoona recently, slots in at 20, and he’s a guy the Pirates could use this season if needed.

Wolf arrived via a trade from San Diego, and the WVU product has had success in the minors while appearing in one MLB game so far in his career. He has a unique delivery, which helps with average offerings, all of which aren’t the fastest.

He also stands 6-foot-7, so if he can continue to throw strikes while adding even a slight uptick in velocity, he could profile as a solid, back-end starter in this league with the right situation and improvements.

21-25

OF/1B Jase Bowen, RHP Kyle Nicholas, RHP Patrick Reilly, OF Enmanuel Terrero, UTIL Jesus Castillo

The bottom-10 begins with Jase Bowen at 21, a former two-sport athlete in high school who has seen some time this spring and reached AA-Altoona.

He had a 20-20 season last year with a .794 OPS, so his speed could be valuable in the outfield while his power could be valuable either in the outfield or at first base.

Bowen has shown he can be a plus-defender at either position, and if he continue to hit the baseball hard, he should have no issues with eventually finding big league time.

Kyle Nicholas is likely the most familiar name of the bottom-10, seeing as he got four appearances with Pittsburgh last year.

Nicholas struggled in those appearances, but to be frank, he wasn’t quite ready. A 5.20 ERA in 98.2 IP last year in the minors would speak to that, but Nicholas does have real tools to be a strong bullpen options eventually.

A vertical breaking fastball with a ton of velocity, sitting in the high-90s, should help him moving forward. His other offerings aren’t awful either, but his command will continue to be what makes or breaks his professional career.

If the command can improve without a considerable dip in velocity, Nicholas should be fine, and if anything, he can offer depth in what should be a strong Pirates bullpen in 2024.

Patrick Reilly, another 2023 selection via the 5th round, slots in at 23. With these newer players, I don’t have as much information to go fully in-depth, but even MLB Pipeline compares him to a Kyle Nicholas type, so you can guess where his struggles come from.

Watching him minimally, he does struggle to keep the ball in the zone, so that will need to be his biggest improvement through the system.

Enmanuel Terrero comes in at 24, and the 2019 international signing, now 21 years of age, is starting to get real opportunities in the system.

2023 was his first in Bradenton, ending the year with a .777 OPS and 21 stolen bases, a credit to his on-base ability and above average speed.

Playing center field should be fine with his speed, although he’s only been out there with more things to work on. Much like others around him on this list, tons of time to work on things.

Switch hitting utility player Jesus Castillo rounds out the top-25, showcasing solid bat-to-ball skills on both the right and left side of the plate.

Castillo, a 2019 international signing, is pretty much all contact, seeing a 20-power tool, and he’s played every position but pitcher and catcher for Bradenton. Strength will be his biggest need, but if he can find that, his defense should warrant conversation down the line as a potential Swiss Army Knife at the big leagues.

26-30

3B/SS Jhonny Severino, OF Estuar Suero, OF Tres Gonzalez, C Omar Alfonzo, OF Bralyn Brazoban

Usually the bottom five of any system is full of guys who have ETAs that are 2027 or later, as they are usually younger guys with tons of upside, and that’s the case here for Pittsburgh.

Jhonny Severino, who came over from the Carlos Santana trade last season, kicks off the bottom five, and at 19, Severino has shown both power and fielding elements that could be fun to watch moving forward. He hasn’t played above rookie ball yet, so its unknown what he can truly become.

Outfielder Estuar Suero, another rookie ball player, comes in at 27, and like Severino, he just doesn’t have enough reps to truly know what he is. Experts say he could develop a fun speed-power combination, and with a 6-foot-5 frame and a 55-run tool, its something the 18 year old could definitely develop into.

Tres Gonzales is the only of these five to have an ETA sooner than 2027, with his coming in at 2025 and slotting in as the 28th prospect in the system.

Gonzalez is a left-handed outfielder has a good ability to just hit the baseball, showcasing good contact skills, but he doesn’t hit the baseball all that hard and hasn’t shown much power in his time in the minors.

Its always good to have high contact guys who can also field, and that’s what Gonzalez is, but I would like to see at least some power out of him to give him a higher ceiling than a back-up outfielder, but they may be all he becomes.

Catcher Omar Alfonzo is the only catcher in the top-30, and the son of 15-year veteran Eliezer Alfonzo looks to follow in his father’s footsteps.

Alfonzo has a big build, standing 6-foot-1, 180 pounds, and he does well behind the plate while also getting on-base at an impressive .380 clip. His five homers last year indicate he could develop some power, but Alfonzo has a timetable that will give him time to develop that power while also improving behind the plate as well.

And finally, Bralyn Brazoban wraps up the top-30, and as the 38th-ranked international prospect this year, the Pirates may have gotten a fun, unique player in their system.

Brazoban has shown hard contact from the left side, at least from what experts have seen, and he’s a very athletic guy and will likely put on some muscle as he continues to grow. Brazoban will likely stay in rookie ball for all of 2024, but he could be another exciting international outfielder, like Shalin Polanco, if he develops and grows into his own.

How Pirates NRI’s Could Help in 2024

3/5/2024 – Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Every year, the baseball calendar begins with Spring Training, and along with the games in Florida and Arizona comes opportunities for players not on 40-man rosters to showcase what they could offer their big league clubs when the regular season rolls around.

Yes, this also pertains to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and with only so many roster spots available, and some real players in those spots unlike past seasons, non-roster invitees have that much more pressure to show off their skills, and prowess, in games that don’t matter for wins and losses, but could matter in decision making for the roster as a whole.

The Pirates had 26 NRIs or Non Roster Invitees, at Spring Training just yesterday afternoon, and as expected that number has already decreased to 22.

First, here is the list of reassignments that the team made yesterday. Andres Alvarez, Anthony Solometo, Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler were all sent to minor league camp. Jackson Wolf was also optioned to AA Altoona, but he doesn’t count here, being that he is on the 40-man.

So we won’t cover every NRI who’s been here, or even a few who remain in this piece. Just doesn’t feel worth the time for me or you but I do want to mention them.

Sergio Alcantara, Chase Andrerson, Carter Bins, Jake Brannigan, Abrahan Guiterrez, Jake Lamb, Kade McClure, Billy McKinney, Michael Plassmeyer, Ryder Ryan, Connor Sadzeck and Sean Sullivan.

The rest of the group has either real potential or makes sense to have a shot at making the big league roster, so lets take a look at some potential contributors from the NRI group.

Jared Jones

I think this list has to start with Jared Jones, due in part to having a high likelihood of big league time, and soon.

Jones enters 2024 as a top-100 prospect in all of baseball, for good reason, seeing as his 2023 campaign saw him take lift-off through the Pirates system.

His 3.85 ERA in 126.1 IP last year was impressive, and along with a career high 146 strikeouts, its no shock to see Jones get some national recognition.

Jones has appeared in Spring twice as well so far at the time of writing, posting two strikeouts in 2.2 IP while pumping the velocity well into the high 90s with ease.

Don’t worry, the former second round selection will be apart of Pittsburgh’s big league roster at some point, just not Opening Day, seeing as the changeup still has some improvements needed alongside the lethal fastball, slider combination that Jones already possesses.

Jones development in AAA and improvements on his third pitch will determine his timetable for a debut, but of this group, I am confident in saying Jones has the best chance to make the most impact in 2024 of the group of NRIs.

Paul Skenes

Of course I have to mention the third-ranked prospect in all of baseball on this list as well, and that’s potentially generational prospect, Paul Skenes.

Skenes, much like Jones, has appeared twice in Spring so far, throwing three innings, striking out three and allowing one run across.

Skenes calling card was his velocity coming from Baton Rogue and Air Force previously, and he’s touched 102mph already and 100mph multiple times, so the velocity will never be the issue for Skenes.

His fastball-slider combination will dominate in the minor leagues, but his development, much like Jones, will be determined on his ability to progress a third pitch into his arsenal, so expect a bunch of changeup work from Skenes in the minor leagues in 2024.

Plenty believe Skenes will debut at some point this season, but the Pirates will likely show a willingness to take their time with their top selection before throwing him into the fire that is MLB, but Skenes talent alone will warrant the conversation nonetheless.

I wouldn’t be shocked either way in terms of Skenes debuting in 2024, but the Pirates have a potential gem in their system along with plenty of other strong arms, so the Pirates have something brewing in the future outlook of the rotation with Skenes headlining.

Wily Peralta

Shifting away from prospects for a moment, we look at Wily Peralta, who to many wasn’t the sexiest acquisition, but he’s looked impressive in his first action since 2022.

Peralta was solid in 2022 with Detroit, posting a 2.58 ERA over 38.1 IP that season, but questions surround him due to his lack of game action last year.

So far, Peralta has answered the call in spring, throwing three scoreless innings of work thus far while showing some good stuff, and with his veteran presence(34), he could be a good depth option for the Pirates bullpen group.

Do I think Peralta is more than that? No, but injuries happen over the course of a MLB season, especially to bullpens, so if he can be valuable depth, which he’s shown he can do before, he’s got a shot to at least get some meaningful big league action this year if the Pirates need him.

Anthony Solometo

Before we speak about Anthony Solometo, I want to make it clear that I don’t think he breaks the big league roster this year, but man is he arguably one of the most important prospects the Pirates have right now.

The 21-year old lefty had a banner season last year in the minors, taking a considerable leap from his 2022 production and flashing some of the stuff that made him a over slot second-round selection in 2021.

Solometo also slotted into MLB Pipeline’s Top-100 this year, and his importance as a left-handed pitcher cannot be understated with how recent offseason’s have gone for Pittsburgh as far as obtaining left-handed pitching via free agency or trade.

The youngster has a chance to buck that trend, hopefully, I just don’t think he does it this season, but that doesn’t mean his opportunities in camp mean nothing, and his improvements and developments will surely mean a ton in the coming seasons.

Ben Heller

Now we shift a bit here to the other NRI pitchers, and these next few may not be the names that pop off the page, but they are, and were, brought in for a reason, for valuable depth.

Ben Heller can surely offer that, seeing as the right-hander has a 3.06 ERA in 50 career big league innings and has one of the nastiest sliders you’ll ever see.

He didn’t see much big league action last season with Tampa Bay, but his efficiency over the nine games he pitched cannot be understated.

His 2.00 ERA and four holds along with his 10 strikeouts and zero walks were nice for a Rays team that needed bullpen depth, so if Heller can stay healthy and keep the slider pumping, he could be in for a slew of call-ups if the Pirates need his services due to injury of lack of performance.

Hunter Stratton

How about a guy who’s been here already and is finally beginning to take shape?

I’m talking Hunter Stratton, who’s been with Pittsburgh since being selected in the 16th round of the 2017 MLB Draft and has seen action in every level of the Pirates minor league system.

Stratton, who’s only 27, has plenty of time ahead of him to be an impactful player for the Pirates, and he’s had an impressive spring thus far, pitching four shutout innings while striking out five.

Stratton has some MLB time as well, pitching in eight career games while posting a 2.25 ERA, so its unknown if Stratton can crack the Opening Day roster, but he surely can be valuable depth for a bullpen that has top-10 potential in baseball.

Brent Honeywell Jr.

As of right now, the only NRI on Pittsburgh projected depth chart via FanGraphs is Brent Honeywell Jr., and honestly, he’s got the stuff to do it.

Honeywell Jr. has seen plenty of big league action with Tampa Bay, Chicago and San Diego, appearing in 43 games and 56.2 IP while posting a 5.08 ERA with 45 strikeouts and 23 walks.

Fun fact, he’s also from Augusta, Georgia, where I grew up, just wanted to throw that in there.

Honeywell Jr. has the stuff to be a big league reliever, he just hasn’t ever truly put it all together just yet.

I don’t agree with FanGraphs in that he’ll break the Opening Day roster, I think Stratton has something to say about that, but once again, like the other pitchers on this list, Honeywell Jr. can at least offer the Pirates a big league arm if they need him at any point.

Gilberto Celestino

Outside of Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the Pirates outfield situation in right field doesn’t exactly scream consistency, with the likes of Connor Joe, Joshua Palacios and Edward Olivares all gunning for the position.

Of that group of three, one, or maybe two, will likely occupy the fourth outfield spot, but the Pirates do have an intriguing group of NRI outfielders to keep an eye on, starting with Gilberto Celestino.

Only 25, Celestino has already seen 370 career MLB ABs, posting a .592 OPS in that time.

He has looked good in spring though, posting a 1.063 OPS in 16 ABs thus far, but Celestino hasn’t seen big league action since 2022.

His defense could be the reason he ends up getting some big league action this season, as he posted a 2 OAA, 4 fielding value and 93rd percentile arm strength in that 2022 season, so if Olivares or Palacios go down or don’t perform to an adequate level, the Pirates could look to Celestino for reinforcement over a short time.

Joe Perez

Joe Perez was acquired late last season after the Houston Astros released him, and he got an invite to spring this year with hopes to showcase what he can do.

Perez has been an adequate minor league player so far in his career, posting a .789 OPS with 52 HR and 197 RBIs. He even had a 19-game on-base streak with the Pirates system last year, so he’s been making the most of the opportunities given to him.

He’s dealt with injuries and the pandemic in his career, but of which have stunted his development a bit, but his defensive versatility along with not being too far removed from being a top-10 prospect in the Astros system makes him an intriguing look in spring and beyond.

If Perez can manage to stay healthy and continue to develop, he could build himself into a solid 4th outfielder with versatility to move to other positions, its just a wait and see for a guy the Pirates are taking a shot on.

Matt Gorski

Lastly, we look at Matt Gorski, who is also a long-term staple in the Pirates system.

Apart of Neil Huntington’s final draft class of 2019, the former second round selection has a .763 OPS and 64 homers, so he’s showcased some power in his minor league time.

2022 was his strongest season, posting a .956 OPS that year, but Gorski failed to take the next step last season when many expected he might make his debut.

Age and injuries have been the biggest obstacles to Gorski making the big-league jump, if he can step up, stay healthy and be consistent in 2024, its possible Gorski jumps onto the roster as a backup outfielder with some pop, but the rest of the outfield set-up could lead to a blockage for Gorski to get his opportunity.

These NRIs won’t move the needle completely for the Pirates being a contender in the Central this year, but injuries and many other factors could lead these guys into real opportunities to help a team looking to take the next step after a 76-win season.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Some Things are Taking Shape

3-4-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s been a fun Grapefruit League schedule so far, when the Pirates regulars leave games it’s been impressive watching their prospects beat up on the other team’s replacements. Even the travel games with only a starter or two have a decent amount of talent on display. So that’s been a little different and I’ve really enjoyed it. Wish more of it were on TV, but I digress.

Next Monday when I write this feature I’ll be getting ready to take off for Bradenton with my wife for a few days in the sun with the boys. We’ll actually be rooming with our friend Craig Toth who you all know well. I’m most looking forward to the first ever MLB Spring Breakout between the Orioles and Pirates. Prospect All Star teams squaring off as part of a double header and man it’s just going to be such a great day of baseball.

I do want this to feel like a vacation for my wife so, maybe don’t expect me to chronicle minute by minute what I’m doing, but I’ll check in on video here and there and I’m sure I’ll have a ton of material to work with and hammer out pieces from as soon as I get back.

Haven’t been down for Spring Training since 2018, with my work schedule it’s just a tough time to get away for me, but I’m so happy we were able to make it work this year.

Yes, my Irish ass will remember sunscreen.

Let’s go!

1. Injury Concerns and Reassignments

It wouldn’t be Spring Training if we weren’t panicking about guys who haven’t made an appearance or guys who have some new issue cropping up. Some are serious, some are more precautionary I’m sure, either way we only get to know what they want us to know this time of year. Or anytime really for that matter, I guess the difference in Spring is the absence could just as easily be completely planned, so you don’t really even know to ask until it’s been a week or two.

Here’s what we know right now.

Andrew McCutchen – The team says we should anticipate seeing him this week at some point. Sounds to me more about the tail end of a rehab plan than a new issue.

Joshua Palacios – Has a lower leg issue that cropped up early in Spring, he too we should anticipate seeing this week according to the team.

Dauri Moreta – It’s too early for anyone to guess, but an elbow concern is rarely good news. This just happened yesterday and I’d anticipate it’s going to take some time to provide us with news.

David Bednar – Lat concern, which could easily be considered his back. I’m not a doctor, but I also think this is likely something David has dealt with before. I have no incentive here to try to guess, I’m sure if it’s a big concern we’ll hear about it soon. I’d also say being a reliever, he won’t require the type of ramp up a starter would to get season ready, so, we’re a little bit away from panicking in my mind, and, if I may be so bold, they’re deep enough in this area to be very careful. Maybe it even helps him stay fresh later into the season.

2. Some Concerning Observations

I think it’s important to force yourself to see through the optimism of Spring Training and the best way to do that is to sit down and focus on things you are concerned about. It’s easy to get caught up in all the perpetually force fed feel good, and in that, miss a less happy story starting to take shape. Conspicuously, I’m doing this now, because once I’m around the team down there, I know I’ll struggle with this more.

Jack Suwinski – Yeah, he just got the monkey off his back with a dinger today, but what concerns me is I’m still seeing a lot of signs that his approach hasn’t changed much. To me, for Jack to take a step, I think he needs to try to touch some balls on the outside corner, if not a little off. He needs that to drive in more runs, and to force pitchers to come back into his swing plane.

The Rotation – Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras, coupled with Quinn Priester have all performed well enough that it makes me feel the Pirates might just let it ride on what they got for the rotation. That’s it, that’s the concern. I still think bringing in another starter would have this team in a very solid position to start the season even if I can’t tell you these guys wouldn’t be enough. It’s a concern, not a prophesy.

Nick Gonzales – I don’t see a path forward for him this year, not without some injuries. Still has the swing and miss issue. I had hoped someone would have gotten with him to focus more on his bat speed ability. Help him use it to give himself just a bit more time to make a decision to swing. That old school shoot it right back where it came mentality. I think Nick could be an effective player if he changed the type of hitter he’s trying to be but my perception of his ceiling has for sure lowered. Truly, he’s not even playing defense the way I’ve seen him.

3. Spot Winners?

I sure think so. Let’s talk about who has jumped out and put their stamp on early Spring in a position battle.

Jared Triolo (Second Base) – Jared has separated himself from the other competitors for this gig, and ultimately, I don’t even think he’ll be the everyday guy there. Triolo has changed his stance and he’s stroking the baseball all over the park, and out of it for good measure. For this year, I think they’ll bounce him around, but if he hits like this all year, they’ll find him a home, that’s just how it works in this league, sometimes your bat finds you a permanent home. Lord knows he’s given them plenty of options. In case you can’t tell, I believe Triolo will assuredly be on the opening day roster.

Henry Davis (Catcher) – It’s undeniable. Henry has been one their best hitters, let alone best hitting catcher and behind the dish, listen, he’s fine. Honestly, I think he looks like a more comfortable target than Grandal, not as good as Delay, haven’t seen enough of Sanchez. He’s blocking, throwing, communicating, I see zero chance this guy isn’t on the opening day roster and the starting catcher. I’ve seen more than a few flat out report the team intends to send him down, but I don’t see it, any more than I see any of them admitting they were wrong, they’ll simply reframe it as the team changing their mind and Davis making it happen, that way the team can still be wrong, even as they’re right. I can’t see any conceivable benefit to the Pirates either. They’d save no money, whatever miniscule thing they might want him to work on won’t make him ineffective at the MLB level by way of learning on the job. There’s just nothing and you know I love taking the counterpoint just to cover my bases, in this case though, I just don’t see it. If anything, to save face I could argue they have incentive to ignore deficiencies and play him anyway. Whatever though, everyone can guess, this is what I’m going with.

It’s super early, I won’t go farther than this for the time being but I think injury or something freakish in general are all that could prevent both of these guys from winning a spot.

4. Martín Pérez Makes His Spring Debut

And my goodness, it was a good one. 3 solid innings and he looked sharp, even throwing his cutter and changeup effectively. Key because these are two pitches that simply weren’t good for him last year in Texas. His outing was so efficient he went directly from the bullpen to throw the additional pitches he had left over after reaching his desired 3 innings of work.

First off, that’s completely his call. He had fulfilled his 3 innings and everyone involved would have been fine if he just sat down with Hannah Mears and walked off to sign a few autographs and rest up. He’s not here for that though, Pérez wants to find what he lost and lead this young staff forward, so of course he worked more, specifically on those two pitches.

Martín also spoke to the importance of the franchise to Latin players and why playing here always was something he had interest in. This sentiment is spoken widely, I say that because guys not wanting to play here is really more accurately about guys wanting paid more than this team will offer. The Pirates have an advantage with many of these players as an evergreen gift left behind by the late great Roberto Clemente.

Putting together a talented roster helps, paying would woo even more, but this team isn’t doomed to be locked out before trying, Roberto himself ensures that.

5. Opening the Throttle on Skenes

He’s gone 2 outings this Spring, and today was the first time they let him really stretch his legs a bit, at least one up and down this time. He gave up a dinger in this one to Eddie Rosario but for the most part, looked strong. I imagine this will be his last outing in MLB camp. I we see him again it’ll be after he’s been assigned to MiLB camp.

This will be a bit of a delicate dance. My buddy Jim Maruca made me think about this with a question he asked for this weekend’s Q&A.

The Pirates are going to have to work this for a lot of players this year. If you see a bunch of these prospects as second half of the year cavalry, I’d caution you, I can count on one hand the guys who I’d expect 150 innings from this year.

Meaning, by August and September, most of these prospects will be at or near their preseason innings limit. Just last year the Pirates faced this with Johan Oviedo, the year before, Roansy Contreras.

When push comes to shove, they’ll let them, well, shove, but there is a limit, and more than that, we often discount what the rigors of pushing one’s self for innings does to the pitcher’s effectiveness, velocity, spin rate or overall health.

In other words, to believe a guy like Jared Jones will help reinforce the rotation this year “down the stretch” as I often hear it referred to, well, you have to assume he’s jumping from his career high of 126.1 innings set last year, to something more like 165 or 175. I’m not putting limits on him, I’m just pointing out, for that kid and his arm to remain as lively as you’ve seen this Spring come August or September, they’d have to slow walk him in AAA. Logic would tell you to pull him after 5, keep him fresh for the end of the season right? Well, ok, but don’t you need him to start showing he can get guys out 3 times through? Don’t you need to see him up and down 6 or 7 times during a game?

That stuff matters, and it may cost him innings to do, in fact, I can’t see any way it doesn’t. Many coaches will say things that would lead you to believe MiLB innings aren’t the same as MLB innings, and that’s true, the competition is clearly different and MLB hitters are expert long count builders, especially against a rookie. I’m sure the stress is different too, but at the end of the day, innings are innings and you have to count them wherever they come from.

Ortiz last year between AAA and MLB racked up nearly 150 innings and he stretched it further in winter ball. It may not inspire confidence in you because he hasn’t been terrific, but Ortiz is a guy you should expect has more left in the tank, or more accurately, wouldn’t be reaching so far above his previous high water mark that you can reasonably expect he could be asked to give you 175 if not more.

I’m not saying this to make it seem Paul Skenes is going to get shut down, I’m just trying to illustrate, the cavalry, might very well have run so hard getting there they’re too tired to fight once they do. For all I know, their plan with Paul is to have him hit 200 this year if they can, that just doesn’t jive with a team that’s been so careful with him so much as asking him to sit down for 10 minutes and pitch again has them chewing nails like Double Bubble.

The Pirates Coaching Must Show Something, and Soon

3-3-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Criticism of coaching in sports is often the go to of the uniformed. Stick with me, I’m not calling anyone dumb, just saying when there are actual coaching deficiencies or failures, we often don’t recognize them while they’re masked by talented players. Vice versa happens too, so when we discuss coaching it’s important to tackle it from a lot of different angles.

You have to factor in how the players feel, and those of us who are just reading quotes have no choice but to assume the Pirates coaching is incredible. Until you think to yourself a bit that no player is going to directly crap on a coach to the media on the record.

Some of us have of course been lucky enough to talk to a player here and there, and I don’t mean self important bloggers, I mean as simple as a signing or meet and greet. Rarely in that opportunity do you want to ask them about the coaching, but if you did, unless they quite literally have become your drinking buddy, most guys won’t say anything that leads you to negatively think of their coaches.

We also have minor league players, including those who have had the opportunity to get the call. They’ll talk more frequently, and you can learn some things there, but you always have to keep in mind, if they’re freely talking to you, they might just be mad they got sent back down too. Have to at least leave that a little in the back of your mind anyway.

Ex players always have colorful things to say about the coaching philosophies where they used to play. Guess what, if they won there, they tend to be pretty positive, if they didn’t win there, they were always doing something whacky. On a podcast or show, 8 years after being there, I tend to just take them as colorful storytelling, harmless, fun. Just here last year or a couple ago and ok, maybe I listen up a bit. Hear them out, especially if the comments come unprompted or to their new local media. There’s no agenda there, and man that’s really valuable.

Point of all that is, we now have watched 3 and a half seasons of Derek Shelton, Don Kelly, Oscar Marin, and a little less of Andy Haines. We have stats their teams have produced and all the bits of weighted evidence gathered from all those different methods we discussed up there.

Paramount of importance, they now have talent to work with.

Meaning, I’m not going to expect Oscar Marin to turn this into a top 10 rotation this year, he just hasn’t been given that level of talent. Andy Haines, I think based on the potential he has to work with, he has to achieve something this year. Top 15 in homeruns? Top 15 in OPS? Something.

I guess there’s one more piece to this evaluation puzzle we have to factor in, and that’s the analytics department. We don’t have a name we can scream about, and the data is the data, but the application of that data to any decision we can talk to and criticize.

So here’s where I am on all 4 right now, based on all that stuff as a baseline plus what we need to see next.

Don Kelly

There isn’t much to say here from a fan perspective. Seems like a nice guy, players like him. Derek Shelton mentions his work in Spring Training scheduling everything, and that’s no small job. There were rumors that he had teams interested in him from the first season with the Pirates, and less so as he’s been here.

Part of that is the inevitability of smelling like the company you keep and those were some damn bad teams, intentional or not.

If the team wins, I think his name will start resurfacing in coaching searches, but for now, it feels like he’s here as long as he wants to be or at least as long as Derek Shelton.

What’s Next? I’d like to see the Pirates find more visible roles for Don, last year they handed him a starring role in the defensive coaching but we never heard much from it.

Oscar Marin

His touted specialty was his ability to meld analytics with biometrics, and he’s really had little to work with prior to last year. Some of his methods have caused players to take a step back, others have excelled, especially in the bullpen. Mitch Keller is a win for him as a pitching coach, but if it takes 3 or 4 full seasons to finally help a guy, it’s still better than not helping, but not sustainable.

Let’s say it Anthony Solometo debuts in September for one of their one game thank you type promotions. Then think about this team, where it is right now, and where you’ll rightly expect it to be next year. Solometo can’t still be struggling to stick come 2026 feel me? Different guys have different paths, but here’s why I worry. Roansy Contreras made adjustments last year, adjustments that honestly have merit. The league stopped chasing his off speed stuff, because he stopped hitting the zone with it. His fastball escaped him. He was met with hitters not swinging at stuff they always had, trying to make adjustments to improve his extension to get a better perception on his heater. It might have worked too if he hadn’t lost velocity because of those adjustments.

Point being, even if he’s back this year, and there sure do seem to be signs of at least the velocity and perception improving. Breaking stuff still moves, and he still doesn’t know where it goes as much as you’d like, but he can be an effective pitcher. Even so, they lost a year with him, we’re now on year 3 of his MLB development.

What’s Next? For Oscar to stay I think we need to see two things. One, we have to see the journey for youngsters more about baby steps and less about sweeping changes, it’s causing ineffectiveness and making the process impossible to entertain while trying to win at the same time. Second, Oscar either needs to ask for help, or the team needs to step in and force it. His role is too vast to expect him to individually help players on a performance to performance basis. These guys need someone to talk to, who gets what it is he does, even just an alternative voice who can jump in a guy’s ear and help. I believe enough talent will cross his path this year to say no results, could very well spell a change here.

Andy Haines

I won’t ignore he had less than stellar hitters, but his overall philosophy hasn’t worked. The team has been historically poor on offense. This year the talent level will make it overwhelmingly obvious should he not change something. I’d have moved on from him before last season started, so it shouldn’t shock you I’m not a fan now.

I want to be fair, but if I’m honest, I think he has a type as it comes to a hitter, and by that, he can help one type of hitter, or turn someone into a poor facsimile of his vision who doesn’t have the skill set to be way he wants them to be.

What’s Next? Much like Marin, he is in charge of the hitting plan for the entire system and it’s too much. There is nothing wrong with guys who look outside the system, the team even encourages it on occasion. They must get someone, in addition to Christian Marrero to talk to guys and work with them when they get into a funk. If this batch of talent can’t score runs or they continue to value walks over run scoring contact I can’t see the team valuing Haines more than their investments. Big year for this offense or I see them making a change.

Derek Shelton

Lineups and when to change pitchers, how much a guy is used, that stuff is always going to be the fodder surrounding an evaluation of a coach. They’re all real things to complain about, but they also don’t always come from him alone. Analytics, training staff, assistant coaches, even the GM when they want to get a look at a certain number of at bats by a certain guy, that stuff all comes together and makes one big Manager soup.

It’s for that reason, he’ll get more than this year to prove he has what it takes, they’d have him replace his assistants before they pulled the plug on someone who’s been a good soldier and done what was asked of him.

The only thing I can really judge him on is how hard his guys play for him and I truly believe they play hard and through the tape.

What’s Next? He’s paid his dues, played 4 straight poker games with one or two face cards the entire time and somehow these guys still want to play for him. That changes this year, he’s being given enough to potentially produce a winning record and while I think he’s safe regardless, he really better at least threaten it or I believe they’ll make staff changes and it would put him on last leg status too in my opinion. The pool of talent must be protected and admitting there isn’t enough is almost always a last resort. Systematically, should they not start to win, the team will blame and eliminate from the bottom up. Like it or don’t, Shelton gets more time.

Steel City Pirates Q&A – Deep Questions for Early Spring

3-2-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Impressive questions this week, truly. Some of them really got me thinking, some of them opened up a path I honestly hadn’t considered yet. That’s why I love these pieces. Completely selfish view here, but these give me a box full of tools.

I get to see where the general concern is of the fans, the names and issues that are most top of mind for you and sometimes they challenge me to discuss something I’ve been avoiding because there isn’t a clean answer.

Thank you all for participating, and again, I’ll do my best to answer them all with as serious an answer as I can.

Question 1

Is it odd that Cutch hasn’t played in any ST games? I know you don’t run him out there a bunch, but thought he would at least have a PH or two. Did I miss something? – Brad Frantz

I don’t think you missed anything per se, they aren’t exactly screaming it from the rooftops. They’ve decided the take it very slow with Cutch as he works his way back into baseball shape and for that matter health in general following his Achilles injury. I haven’t heard from anyone exactly when we should expect him to play, but I also haven’t heard anyone concerned that he won’t be ready for the season starting. If we still haven’t seen him play after this week, they’ll be forced to address it more up front. My guess is if they had anything to say we’d have heard it yesterday when they finally addressed why Palacios hasn’t played, dealing with a lower leg injury and we should see him this week, by the way.

I get the impression he’s ok though, just probably a bit “baseball behind” as he mainly focused on injury rehab this offseason.

Question 2

Do you think the pirates have reached out to the remaining FA pitchers? if so are they just not interested in the buccos? – Drizzy16

There are a lot of remaining free agent pitchers, I know for a fact they’ve reached out to some, I know some they haven’t. The three “big” ones are Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is nowhere near in the same class as the other two, but those three are the best available.

Lorenzen is said to want 2 years, clearly nobody has yet been interested, or more accurately desperate enough, to take that on. I’m quite sure he’d love to play in Pittsburgh what with his affinity for Clemente and the Clemente family, but I also know he wants and AAV around 10M. This is as simple as I don’t believe Cherington wants to lock in on him for 2 years. As I understand it, they’ve made an offer, long ago actually. If they’ve reapproached him, it hasn’t reached me, and I haven’t seen it reported.

Montgomery has held fast he wants to return to the Rangers. The Rangers for whatever reason haven’t moved forward with it. Looks like he’s got some other teams interested mainly in the AL East, but we’ll see. I have never thought the Pirates were terribly interested here.

Snell is simply out of the question here. He’ll wind up signing a Boras style, option laden contract that essentially gives him the ability to pitch for a year or two for 25-30 mil per then opt out and try again for the mega deal if he’s performed. The price tag doesn’t match the amount of innings Snell typically gives in a season, and that’s why they’re struggling to find a match. The Pirates in my mind are certainly not in this. They hate player options, almost lost Reynolds because of it, and I can’t imagine he’s interested either.

Question 3

Hey Gary – what is the current sentiment on whether Henry Davis is going to be the Opening Day starter behind the plate. I cannot imagine Grandal usurping him. – UnburdenedDoctor

I’ll take this as my sentiment, because according to social media he’s starting in AAA because Pirates are dumb.

I’ve seen nothing negative about his catching this Spring. I’ve seen nobody say anything negative about his catching this Spring. He’s also hitting.

I see no tangible benefit for the Pirates to impede Henry in any way. Opening day? Looks like they’ll be facing Luzardo, so I sure as hell hope so.

Question 4

When do you think or what do you think it would take for BC to be on the hot seat as GM? – James Littleton

People won’t want to believe it, but Cherington is safe through at least 2026, and I mean before I could see Bob Nutting even close to ready to discuss it. Everyone involved with this team knew Cherington and Williams for that matter were going to play the long game here. There wasn’t going to be a quick answer here, not with everything they wanted to do.

Despite popular belief, Bob isn’t a stupid man, he knew this wasn’t going to be some silly 5 year plan, it’s instead an overhaul of everything they did.

This was just highlighted in the Athletic piece actually. A full scale change of everything this franchise does on the baseball front. Scouting, training, analytics, development, I mean, even the talent itself.

Listen, I don’t say all that to paint the picture is all has been smooth, clearly it hasn’t, nor am I saying it’s ultimately going to get them the ultimate prize, what I am sure of though, there isn’t one important person in this franchise that thinks they could possibly have been farther along than they are right now employing the method this GM sold to ownership.

People don’t often think about the hiring process here, but it’s key. GM’s come in with a resume and that of course matters, but Cherington didn’t come in and try to convince Bob he’d have this ship turned around and in the playoffs after waving a magic wand for 6 months. They knew this would take time and we’re just nowhere near the point where the owner is suddenly going to admit, realize, have a change of heart as to the approach.

I say 2026 because by then he’ll have had 3 draft picks in the top 5, likely all here and if it doesn’t look like it’s working by then, ok, they’ll talk. Bluntly, I think it’s more likely Cherington realizes he can’t get over the top without an infusion of cash and moves on himself having built a system up and having a story in his pocket for how he could do it affordably, but not without some willingness to stretch the budget to kick it over.

Question 5

What’s the ceiling if we find at least one good answer at each position among all the prospects and we have a comfortable stable lineup halfway through the season? – Chris Reisinger

We’ll never have what fans consider a comfortable and stable lineup for the simple fact that Analytics won’t allow it. Much of the lineup will find a spot and kinda stick there like Reynolds and Cutch last year, but never the majority. It’s just not Shelton’s style, and frankly, not Cherington’s, he wants analytics very involved.

All that said, They’re pretty close on the position player thing now. Catcher, second base and right field remain questions, but they have good answers for all of them already.

I’m not sure how to answer the ceiling part. It’s essentially, hey, if everything goes perfectly what could this team get done? And conspicuously left out the pitching which would probably hold them back.

I’d say if the offense performs like I think they will, They’ll make a Wild Card run this year.

Question 6

I know it’s only been a few innings, but what are your thoughts on Peralta. If they send Quinn and Ortiz down because they have options, I’d take him over Falter every time. – SadPiratesFan

Honestly, I just said yesterday on X as unpopular as it is to praise an NRI, I think he’s been quite impressive. 3 innings so, like you said, early, but a guy like this has a shot for sure to snag a long man spot, probably in a batter with guys like Honeywell, Heller. There is room for this, especially if the Pirates choose to not add a starter before the season starts. Having someone who can and has eaten 4-5 innings in this league might be important.

As to Falter, I share your pessimism.

Question 7

If Triolo wins the 2B job, how you do see the backup INF spot shaking out? And is there any downside, team/roster build wise, in your eyes if Triolo doesn’t wind up playing the role (Swiss Army knife UTL guy) many assumed? – Nick Cammuso

To me this is all about who can do what. Triolo in my mind was always going to make this team. He’s the best backup 3B they have, arguably the best backup SS they have and from what I’ve seen an extremely capable 2B, not to mention his 1B ability. You know all this, but making the team is step one and he’s the only one in this battle I can sit back and comfortably say is a Major League player right now.

How the backup role would shake out? Well, to me if Triolo is starting at 2B, they’re going to have to find someone who can help at 3B and SS. Gonzales is the only one who can handle 3rd, but SS, probably not. Peguero makes sense, but I could see them not wanting him to sit on the bench.

Thing is though, at some point they’re going to have to start picking winners and losers, or else you tend to never find a winner, just create losers. Hearing the constant consternation about getting at bats for so and so every time you discuss someone grabbing a starting role gets silly as you’re looking at an all kid group to choose from. You can’t always have a Chris Owings type to “rot on the bench” but it’s hard to do to a prospect you think has legs.

If Triolo wins 2B, I see Gonzales or Bae as having a better chance to make it as a backup, probably Bae in front. Gonzales would be a direct admission he’s gonna top out as a bench player though. Bae could probably get some ABs in CF too which would prevent me from thinking he would be “given up on” per se.

Question 8

Who will be the s**tty player that the Pirates force us to watch for far too long this year? – Jim Rosati

We actually talked about this on the Pirates Fan Forum last week a bit. If I had to pick the most likely subjects, Yasmani Grandal, Rowdy Tellez, Bailey Falter and my dark horse, Colin Selby.

The management is already setting up the Grandal hate, every time he is named the starter fans will take it as a slap in the face to Henry, and them.

Question 9

As we sit here today, what percentage chance do you put Hank starting the season in Indy? Feel like its gotta be close to 0 at this point…right…? How about Skenes? And for him its more is it Indy or is it Altoona. Feel like Pittsburgh isnt even in the mix. -Pitt_Panther_

Right now? Zero. I’ve seen nothing to make me believe Henry is a minor league player. Skenes, I think we’ll see start in Altoona, and I doubt it’s for long, mostly an effort to get him on a schedule and as he himself said, start to learn what was going to get better hitters out.

Question 10

Only 44 MLB pitchers in 2023 pitched 162 or more innings. Is the line between starter, middle reliever, and once through the lineup opener becoming more muddled? Does this trend help the Pirates given their apparently deep bullpen? – Mark Graham

It is, and clearly so as evidenced by the fact that Rob Manfred himself acknowledged starters aren’t doing what they traditionally have in the league. I have no idea how they plan to address it, but for sure, the game has trended in this direction.

I can say the stat keepers haven’t adapted. The low water mark that used to be a quality start is now somehow much less attainable than it used to be. I think we can see on the Free agent market when a guy can give those kind of innings, they get paid differently, so there is still incentive to do it for a player, but management doesn’t allow it or demand it the way they used to.

In many ways, analytics have robbed us of seeing what some guys could do if asked to do so. Holding back pitches to use later in a game as you face a rotation for a third time through is dying, now most guys just use their entire quiver from the jump unless they’re one of the rare pitchers expected to give 6 or 7 innings like Keller.

Long way of saying, yes, in many ways it’s become arms, arms, arms, innings, innings, innings, and if it takes 6 tonight, so be it.

The commissioner recognizes it’s not good for the fans. The Players union should recognize it’s bad for their top earners. But I’m not sure how you legislate out trying to win at all costs.

Question 11

Any thoughts that the pirates mine sign another outfielder (Pham, Duval or Taylor) or a pitcher (Lorenzen)? You thinking maybe there happy with the young players they’ve picked up (Oliveras, Perez or Celestino) or the pitchers they’ve signed (Peralta, Fleming, Anderson or Honeywell). Maybe just the young pirates will get the job done. Until Skenes and Solometo are ready. – Richard Sabatos

I don’t see them bringing in another outfielder. Legitimately believe they think they have enough out there. Pitching, I just can’t see this as being off the table. There are still some legitimate options out there, relatively affordable and the longer we go without Martin Perez pitching the more concerned I become. Having Gonzales, Perez and Keller as the only established starters could be ok, but they can’t afford for any of the 3 to be anything less than healthy.

Big if for me. I thought they needed another all off season, I can’t shake it now.

Question 12

Do u think they might make a trade before April first in regards to the starting pitching or an outfielder? Robert Greene

I certainly think it’s possible, but once Spring gets rolling the problem is all the other teams start getting a feeling for their rosters too.

Here’s why I leave the door cracked. Lorenzen, Montgomery, Snell, Cueto, whoever else you think is worth a crap out there will very likely sign and when they do that team will inevitably have a 4th or 5th starter they suddenly become ok with moving. Probably a guy with no options or down to one. Maybe a guy who’s borderline bullpen or rotation.

Say the Giants grab Snell, well that’ll leave a guy like Sean Hjelle on the outside looking in for the rotation. He’s a big 6′ 11″ pitcher with one option left, under a year of service time, lots of potential for the 45th overall pick in 2018, he’s also 27 years old.

Look, I’m just making up a guy, I have no idea how the Giants feel about him, just explaining the type of guy who sometimes pops loose as teams upgrade. I can’t even say he’d be better than Ortiz, but he has experience, even if not much. This would be his first year as an MLB starter though. He’s always been one in the minors, but he isn’t the instant step in answer so don’t get hung up on the name. Again, just explaining how it happens that guys become available.

Any team that picks up Montgomery or Snell in particular might be a potential trade partner, and potentially a motivated one who doesn’t want to DFA someone.

Question 13

One thing I want to ask is, I know you and I have discussed it’s early spring ball, but what’s some of your take aways so far? Who looks like they wanna win the 2nd base battle? Right now it seems like they’re still going through cuts from the looks of it. You know I sincerely love hearing your takes. – Neal Kokiko

They’re going to go through cuts until the last day of Spring, probably the day after actually. That’s how it almost always works for the 25th or 26th man. It could even come down to negotiating with players who have opt outs and were NRIs, before making a final call on a roster decision, you might want to see if you can convince someone like Peralta to hang around in the minors and if he won’t, you might decide it’s better to just have him make the roster.

Now, Peguero and Triolo were the leaders at 2B, and they still are. If anything, they’ve separated themselves farther. Henry looks impressive, I can’t see any real reason to expect he’s anything but the primary catcher this year and he’ll hit.

Keller is Keller, he’ll be fine. I’m worried about Perez and Gonzales in the rotation. Perez cause he hasn’t pitched, Gonzales cause he hadn’t in a long time and he just isn’t going to throw anything that inspires hope, he’s just not a stuff guy.

Biggest takeaway, this team has some pretty lofty power potential, I think they could finish in the top 15 for sure, maybe 10 for homers.

Bullpen will be filthy and deep.

Rotation is weak, will start weak even if they bring in another, but by the end of the year it’ll be much more promising.

Generally, the players believe, and while they’ve said the right things in years past, this is different now. They believe they’re good, more than that, they believe they can take this division. That won’t mean they win, but if they have one way of thinking, that’s the one you want.

And it is early for much more than broad strokes.

Question 14

What does your heart tell you about this team right now? – James Littleton

My heart says this offense could be good enough to make up for the starting rotation enough to get them over .500 and into a Wild Card competition.

Unfortunately I have this damn brain too.

Question 15

Cutchs role this year. Same as last year ? Everyday at DH and in the 3 spot in the order ? Or Is Davis going to eat into his DH at bats and Cutch is more of a 2-3 starts per week and pinch hitting. Why not take his high on base % and bat him 9th so Cruz and Reynolds can feast with him on base. – Ryan Antonucci

I don’t think any of us could know Ryan, especially given he hasn’t done anything yet.

First thing I can say is, I think they’ll need the DH spot to rest Cruz and Davis but keep their bat in the lineup. So, I don’t think this team can afford to have an everyday DH, bluntly if Cutch wasn’t Cutch I wouldn’t have seen this as a “need”.

Like last year, they and Cutch claim they want him to play some more outfield. I’m sure they both really do want that, but like last year, I’m quite sure they’ll quickly discover Cutch can’t do it as much or as well as they’d like.

I think if he finishes around 400-500 at bats I’d feel they probably used him a bit more than I personally expected.

Primarily though, I think when he plays he’ll be a DH.

Question 16

Pay Skenes 10 years 100 million right now? – Heath DiSalvo

I wrote this about 10 days ago.

For Extension – If this franchise truly believes Paul Skenes will debut in 2024, I think it’s a brilliant idea. Let’s do some math, I know, gross, but let’s do it anyway. In any young player’s first three years they’ll make league minimum unless they sign a contract that pays them more. League minimum will raise by 20K year over year for the next two leading into the new CBA. For Paul that would mean if he started right out of Spring (set aside your opinion on this for the moment) $2.26 Million. He obviously has the bonus he signed for too so he won’t go hungry. Then arb starts and that’s where this gets tricky, cause you have to start guessing. the only player who comes close to Skenes in recent history is probably Gerrit Cole but it’s been a while, and inflation is real. In arbitration he made a cool $24 Million. Now, Gerrit didn’t fly out the gate so let’s say that was probably low anyway so lets give Paul a very optimistic for him 32 million. To me, that number right there is why this is possible. You take those 6 affordable years and try to buy 2 or 3 years where yes he could easily make another 20-25-dare I say 30 mil per on the open market. Approach him with 9 years 75 million, pay a little more now so you keep him longer and keep his pay reasonable later in turn. Even if I’m off a few mil here, it’s not a whole lot on either side. Now, let him prove it for a year, everything I just wrote is erased. Those extra years are what get more and more expensive.

Against Extension – I mean, we’ve seen like 10 minutes of this guy. He looks like he has crazy good stuff, but let’s not pretend 75 million even if it’s spread out wouldn’t be a risk. What if he has a career path like Taillon? What if that electric stuff for whatever reason just doesn’t fool MLB hitters often enough? Tough to 100% say this is anything more than a bet with nice odds to pay out.

So, clearly I’m on board, but I don’t think I can outline the pros and cons much better than I did here. If you’re interested in my thoughts on everyone else who could be up for extension, check it out.

Question 17

On Skenes. Putting when he’ll be promoted aside. Do you have a feel for how the Pirates will manage his innings? Strasburg pitched a total of 123 innings between the minors and majors in his rookie season in 2010 and they shut him down before the playoffs. Do you think there’s a way the Pirates could stretch him out but have innings left at the end of the season on the outside chance the Bucs make the wildcard? – Jim Maruca

I love this question, I love the entire thought process because baked into it is the understanding that you can’t expect this guy to be Roy Halladay tomorrow. It takes time to become the horse he looks like.

If you toss in his professional innings after being drafted, he threw roughly 130 innings last year and I see them likely looking at 150 as a good benchmark. You’re very right to assume he’d likely run dry on innings by the end of the season, but the Pirates have shown they’ll stretch it out, some would argue that’s what they did last year with Oviedo and many of those same people would use it as a reason for his injury.

All that said, I expect them to let him build up and see what he can do instead of worrying that he will have to stop. The next step has to come one way or another. I do think we’ll see him as a member of a 6 man rotation in MiLB and that’ll be a familiar once a week turn for him. If he does that and builds up to 7 even 8 innings of work in each outing that probably puts him around 65-75 innings a couple months in. Now, that assumes he goes deep in all of them, never has a skipped rotation turn, and starts the season fully revved which he won’t. So, I think they could get to June with him only having thrown 50-60. If he’s earned a call up shortly after that, he probably has a good 100 left for the big club.

Frankly though, this is why Keller was so intent on making sure he hit 200 innings in 2023, which ultimately he didn’t reach. In order to succeed in the playoffs as a starter, you can’t be a shell of yourself when you get there. Paul is a special kid, but if they aren’t careful with him, well, they’re as dumb as many fans assume.

I believe the path will look something like this. 6 man rotation, one turn a week, build up the number of ups and downs they’ll let him see in one day. Build up the number of pitches they’ll let him touch. Call him up if ready, let him continue his path and let the talent decide where it goes. If they worry about him pitching in the playoffs before they get there, I’m afraid we’ll have the same conversation next year.

I wish there was a real and understood science to keeping these guys on the field, but there just isn’t any one size fits all method. This is how I see Skenes’ path though.