O Captain! My Captain!

3-1-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

There is a new “Pirate Generation” arriving soon in Pittsburgh. We’ve SEEN it now! Or, after yesterday’s game, at least heard it. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo and Jackson Wolf will soon join the ranks of Quinn Priester, Liover Peguero, Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales – you’ve been hearing about prospects as part of the rebuild for the past 4 years. The “reinforcements” are on the way but, as the title of the article states, whom will these up-and-comers look to as the leader – both on the field and in the clubhouse? Who will be their captain?

A handful of teams have quote-unquote Captain(s) on their respective teams. Jason Varitek, David Wright, Derek Jeter – and now, Aaron Judge – have all borne a ‘C’ on their jerseys. It’s not common, certainly not like it was years ago. The Pirates have actually only had four captains in their storied history and they covered a span of just over 2 decades – all of whom you probably know as a Pirates fan.

Dick Groat was named the team’s first captain in 1962, his final year before a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals. Bill Mazeroski took the mantle from 1963 through 1972. After him, Pops himself – Willie Stargell – was captain from 1973 until 1982, and finally, for 1983, Bill Madlock.

And that was it. Now, “Mad Dog” Madlock had some issues that extended beyond the baseball diamond, likely contributing to his captainship being revoked and not annointed on another player but will he be the final one to ever wear the black and gold?

If you were to pick a presumptive “Captain” for the Pirates, you likely would steer the choice toward veteran Andrew McCutchen. Cutch, however, seems more the Teddy Roosevelt type to “speak softly and carry a big stick” while the name I have in mind is more of a “speak loudly and also the big stick thing” type of leader.

Ok, hear me out here! I’m not ordaining Henry Davis as the next team captain quite yet but I am going to argue that his success and leadership could be the biggest trigger for the team’s success – especially if he can stick at catcher.

It’s not hard to argue that the Pirates have been lacking in offensive power behind the dish the past few years. Looking back to the 2013-15 teams, Russell Martin posted the third highest fWAR among all catchers in the 2013/2014 seasons. Francisco Cervelli’s 5.9 fWAR in 2015 was only behind Buster Posey (6.8) among MLB catchers.

Over the past five years, the Pirates have employed a slew of solid defenders behind the dish but with extremely sub-par upside with the bat. Per FanGraphs (thanks Yark for doing the legwork here), the Pirates catching corps has posted an MLB-worst -131.4 offense since the start of 2019 despite being the 4th best defensively at 89.2.

This can be attributed – at least in part – to former Pirates like Austin Hedges and Jacob Stallings, who had above-average defensive acumen while their skill with the bat was lackluster. But, with the team looking to open its window of contention, having a 2-way backstop – or even one above average offensively – would go a long way towards helping this team be successful.

We haven’t gotten to see much of Davis at the dish, much less behind it. As of now, March 1, 2024, he has caught only 2 MLB innings outside of Spring Training and posted a measly .653 OPS over 255 plate appearances with the Pirates in 2023. Keep in mind, however, that he was dealing with a hand injury which hampered his power, impacted his swing and dissuaded the Pirates from using him more as a catcher.

Looking to his track record in the minors, he has played in 122 total games, 536 plate appearances and posted a .286/.415/.532 triple slash with 25 home runs, 24 doubles and 20 stolen bases. His defense has always been a concern but something he has been working on basically all of the off-season – recruiting a number of other players along the way. And reports we’ve been hearing out of camp this spring have been pretty positive regarding his improvement and development in the role while we’ve gotten to see the bat show up already.

Between this rah-rah team spirit move, his post-draft message to Termarr Johnson in 2022 and his sheer determination to will this team forward into contention, it is hard to not like the guy. The catching job is his to lose with Endy Rodriguez out for the year but he’s looking to be a different ‘C’ with this team.

Whether the Pirates ever bring back the title of Captain or not is irrelevant. For all intents and purposes, Davis is a leader for this up-and-coming group of players – Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo and Jared Jones, among others – who could be greatly impactful in opening the contention window for Pittsburgh. But it all starts with the man behind the dish.

O, Captain! My Captain!

Let’s Go Bucs!

Pirates Players Hoping it Really is a Leap Year

2-29-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Take off your fan hat for just a second here, and try to put yourself in the shoes of the few players who have been here for most of, if not all of this rebuild.

Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller, go ahead and toss in David Bednar if you like, these guys are now seen as the veteran core of this baseball club, and not 3 or 4 years ago they were all youngsters striving to make their mark, or to maybe even to just make it in general.

They’ve still got something to prove, you do every year to a degree right? I mean, Cody Bellinger won the MVP, Rookie of the Year, Looked like he’d cash in big time with Big Blue in LA and then for some reason, everything left him. The average, the power, the contact, the confidence. That could happen to anyone, any year, they all know it, they all work hard to make sure it isn’t them.

Now, they’re seeing a new group come on the scene and unlike when they did it, this crew has something they didn’t, first, they have a lot more company than the original group did, and second, they also have, well, them.

These kids are walking in to a roster that has already has proof they’ll extend someone. They’re entering a team trying to build, not deconstruct.

So yeah, there’s excitement surrounding the team. To this roster, you get the impression they’re taking this leap year thing rather seriously.

Some of that is just Spring, I clearly remember hearing players talk glowingly about how hard Phillip Evans worked, or how great Yajure’s off speed stuff is. You know, you’ve heard it too. But man, it’s different hearing them talk now, even the prospects are kind of enamored with what some of the others can do.

I mean, listen to how Ke’Bryan describes the way it’s different for him now.

He talks about how his goals for this year are different. That’s natural, he’s not some kid trying to make a club anymore, now he’s an established player who is turning his eyes to winning, and one big reason is the leap in talent this roster has undergone. Far too slow to fans of course, but thinking back about how again just a couple short years ago, Ke’ himself was that kid with all the potential, the one who was going to start turning things around. I heard one journalist say on his daily podcast that the “window would be open as long as Ke’Bryan Hayes was a Pirate”.

There have certainly been challenges since then. Injuries, offensive droughts, completely sapped of power, questions about whether his very team friendly contract had been a mistake.

He was the first of this core to decide Pittsburgh was where he wanted to do this, and he didn’t think that meant no championship.

These kids, sure believe, here’s Jared Jones after his outing today in Bradenton. “Yeah, I mean, we’re all really good pitchers. It’s fun to be in the same clubhouse with a lot of these guys. We all just have the same mindset of getting after it and competing. It’s fun to see.”

Here’s Quinn after the game, sound like a kid who thinks he’s working toward nothing?

Listen, again, I know you heard all that same confidence from guys like Cody Bolton, or even Mitch Keller….oops, bad example, Mitch kinda did get there didn’t he, and we’d do well to remember just how long it’s taken to start accepting someone like Reynolds is a good player, because while we’re on boarding these kids it’s crucial to keep in mind you shouldn’t be expecting these guys to hit their ceiling this year, just maybe hope for a leap toward it.

Maybe the biggest leaps will be taken by someone like Ke’Bryan, he’s shown signs that he’s found what unlocks him at the plate, he’s an elite defender, honestly, he’s evolved to the point where his ceiling is likely in sight. You could be on the verge of seeing peak Hayes for the very first time, and when you do, don’t be shocked if it looks a ton like that 20 some year old kid who was called up to play in front of nobody for a months worth of games in 2020.

The journey will always be there, but when his career story is written, most fans won’t ever think of them again, if, he takes the next leap.

This year isn’t the end of this story, it’s just the next chapter. Enough of these kids take a leap, and so does this team. Some of these veterans reach one step closer to, or actually attain their ceilings and they go even further.

Unfortunately, therein lies the story of baseball, not everyone trends in the right direction.

Once every 4 years we get an extra day, and this year that’ll give us a baseball game with Paul Skenes making his Spring Training debut, a perfect metaphor for what this year is all about.

The Life & Times of McKechnie Field 1923-Present

2-27-24 – By Douglas Smith – @optimist1961 on X, Pirates Spring Training Insiders Group on Facebook

The Home of Pittsburgh Pirates Spring Training since 1969

I’m a civil engineer who grew up in a baseball household where my dad was one of the early members of SABR – Society of American Baseball Researchers. I was introduced to baseball culture with a Cleveland Indians baseball mitt and trips to Municipal Stadium in downtown Cleveland. Having moved to Pittsburgh in 1986, the Pirates were easy to adopt as my team, but once I attended my first Spring Training in 2014 the affection and curiosity for the sport really blossomed.

My dad was also a major history buff so my interests skew to how interesting and connected the storylines of the players, teams and managers are across the decades. I wrote this article to expand on what I have learned as we passed the 100th anniversary of baseball in Bradenton in 2023, with an effort to weave some of the rich historic context through those 100 years.

Let’s start with a short tribute to Bill McKechnie

William Boyd McKechnie was born in Wilkinsburg, PA. to Scottish immigrants on August 7, 1886 – the same year the Statue of Liberty was dedicated in New York City by President Grover Cleveland. 

Bill McKechnie debuted for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1907 with manager Fred Clarke. Clarke was a player-manager as Honus Wagner was in his prime leading the National League in batting average. 

Bill was an infielder and went on to play for the Pirates across 4 different stints, as well as the Boston Braves (1913), New York Yankees (1913), Indianapolis Hoosiers/Newark Peppers (1914/15), the New York Giants (1916) and the Cincinnati Reds (1917).

In 1913, McKechnie had his worst season as a full-time player, batting only .134, but Yankees manager Frank Chance thought McKechnie had a keen baseball mind and had Bill sit next to him on the bench during games. 

Two years later, McKechnie got his first taste of managerial duties, serving as player-manager for the Newark Peppers of the Federal League, leading the team to a 54–45 record.

He managed for a year in the minors before assuming the helm of the Pirates in 1922. He managed the Bucs from 1922 to 1926, the St. Louis Cardinals in 1928 and 1929, the Boston Braves from 1930 to 1937, and the Cincinnati Reds from 1938 to 1946. He compiled 1,896 wins and 1,723 losses for a .524 winning percentage over his managerial career. His teams won four National League pennants (1925, 1928, 1939 and 1940) and two World Series championships (1925 and 1940), and he remains the only manager to win National League pennants with three teams (Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Cincinnati).

McKechnie was an unusual kind of manager for his era. A very religious man, he did not smoke, drink alcohol or use profanity. His nickname was ‘The Deacon’. When he had a problem player who was likely to go out carousing, McKechnie’s simple solution was to room with him. 

McKechnie was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1962 and into the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame in 1967. He has not yet been inducted into the Pirates Hall of Fame as of 2023. McKechnie died October 29, 1965 in Bradenton, FL, where he had settled in later life. He is buried at Manasota Memorial Park, just 3.5 miles away from the park which bared his name until a few years ago.

The Roaring, then Boring 20’s

The St. Louis Cardinals were the first occupants of what was then called City Park, in ‘Bradentown’, Florida, and the location was actually east of the existing facility. A young Branch Rickey – one of the most innovative baseball managers in history – was managing the Cardinals at that time. 

Rickey had basically invented the ‘farm system’ as we know it today, and at that time owned five minor league teams. He also created the Cardinal Logo that is still in place today. Rickey also introduced batting cages, pitching machines and the first team position-focused on analysis (Allan Roth in 1947).

Interestingly, Rickey went on to become an Executive VP for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1950 (then owned by John Galbreath). He helped recruit the likes of Elroy Face, Bill Mazeroski, Dick Groat, Vern Law and Roberto Clemente. Rickey, when his health declined, chose Joe Brown to manage the club – who eventually hired Syd Thrift and Jim Leyland. I love that lineage!

The spring training facility was called ‘City Park’ from 1923 to 1926 and seated 2,000 fans.  In 1926/1927, it was rebuilt at the current location: 1611 Ninth Street West and acquired the name ‘Ninth Street Park’ which lasted until 1947.

The Cardinals went on to win 79 and 76 games in 1923 and 1924, respectively. The Philadelphia Nationals (now the Phillies) occupied the facility for the next three years (1925-1927) and went on to have 65, 58 and 51 wins (finishing last that year).  After the Phillies, the Boston Braves (now Atlanta Braves) were an even less illustrious resident of 9th Street Park – their records from 1928 to 1930 were 57-96 (last), 58-96 (last) and 52-102 (last).

The 1930s – Seeds of Greatness!

In 1930, the St. Louis Cardinals returned to Ninth Street Park for a six-year stay.  Still run by general manager Branch Rickey, they won the Word Series in 1931 and 1934. During that period, the team adopted the nickname ‘The Gashouse Gang.’

Some say this was inspired by their star pitcher Dizzy Dean, who loved Bradenton so much he bought a gas station to run when he wasn’t playing – where his teammates would hang out as well. 

Dizzy also bought a house in Palm Sola Park, one of the nicer Bradenton neighborhoods of the time.

In 1937, it’s a little unclear who occupied the Ninth Street Field. Reportedly, The Boston Bees (previously the Braves) called the park home until 1941; however, Spring Training fliers exist on eBay saying they practiced in St. Petersburg (managed in 1937 by our own Bill McKechnie).

In 1938, future Hall of Fame manager Charles Dillon “Casey” Stengel replaced McKechnie as the Bees manager, and the Bees did, in fact hold, spring training at Bradenton and went 77-75 the following season. The Bees stayed in Bradenton during the springs of 1939 (63-88-1) and 1940 (65-87) as well.  Stengel was known for taking a seldom-used technique called platooning and using it much more extensively, making the most of it in later years managing the Yankees.

The 1940s – The War Years

Ninth Street Park was taken over by the U.S. Army in 1941 and named Camp Bradenton, later changed to Camp Weatherford after the first Floridian to be killed in the War. They used it as a training base during World War II.

On January 15, 1942, President Franklin D Roosevelt sent a letter to Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis encouraging Major League Baseball to continue playing despite the early entry into World War II.  All 16 teams played a full season but Spring Training for all teams was held closer to home to save on costs.

The Bradenton grounds became a Signal Corps basic training facility. The City Annex, still standing, served as headquarters for the Camp. The local camp was attached to Drew Army Field in Tampa, which later become Tampa International Airport.

The rebranded Boston Braves returned to the re-named Braves Field in 1948 and, after three decades of lackluster Braves/Bees/Braves baseball, brought home the National League Pennant that year, losing to the Cleveland Indians in the World Series. After the Braves’ first year back, the city of Bradenton stated that if the Braves agreed to return the very next season, the city would build new clubhouses, field boxes along the first and third baselines and a new press box. The Braves agreed and stayed in Bradenton until 1963.

The 1950s – A Notable Moment in Societal Change

In 1950, Bradenton became the first MLB facility to allow an African-American baseball player, Sam ‘The Jet’ Jethroe of the Boston Braves. Jethroe led the league in stolen bases in 1950 and 1951 and at 32, was voted National League Rookie of the Year (he had previously been playing for the Negro League Cleveland Buckeyes).

This was a major breakthrough because, had Florida not allowed him to join, the state would have lost all of its baseball clubs. In March 1957, the Bradenton City Council would grant permission for a semi-professional Negro league baseball team to play its 10-game home schedule at the ballpark.

The Boston Braves became the Milwaukee Braves after the 1952 season (before becoming the Atlanta Braves in 1966) but the team that occupied the Bradenton grassy fields did well during this time, finishing 1st in the National League twice, and 2nd four times, and defeated the New York Yankees in the 1957 World Series. 

That year, a 23-year old Hank Aaron enjoyed the Gulf Coast’s warm air and sunshine, starting his amazing career at Braves Field, and went on to win the League MVP award, batting .322 with 44 home runs an 132 RBIs. 

Despite being able to play alongside the entire team, Aaron and the other black players still had to spend Spring Training in the negro neighborhood in Bradenton staying with host families such as K.W. Gibson, a principal, and his wife, a teacher, at 211 Ninth Avenue West. Meanwhile, the white players stayed at the opulent Dixie Grande Hotel on the Manatee River.

The 1960s – The Pirates Enter the Scene (Soon)

In 1961, a young Joe Torre was brought to Spring Training with the Braves at Bradenton as a rookie catcher. He went on to be voted an All-Star five times as a player and to manage for 30 years, winning the World Series with the Yankees four times.

Warren Spahn, one of history’s and the Braves’ great pitchers with 363 wins, liked the area so much he bought land and built several small cottages on Ann Maria Island.  Spahn spent his entire 13-year career while the Braves occupied the field in Bradenton.

The Milwaukee Braves hung around at Braves Field a little longer, 1962 being their last spring there, but 1962 was a notable year because the field was renamed after the city’s popular resident, Bill McKechnie.  McKechnie had also just been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame as a manager, alongside Jackie Robinson and Bob Feller.

In 1963, as Milwaukee moved to West Palm Beach for the spring, they were replaced by the Kansas City Athletics, who stayed through 1968. At the end of the five years, the Athletics moved to Oakland and needed a training facility closer to the home stadium, subsequently moving to Arizona. The Athletics were basement dwellers for these five years and the team’s mascot, ‘Charley O’, was a donkey that the owner, Charley Finley would tie up in the outfield.

During their short stint in Bradenton, though, the Athletics were stockpiling young talent many of whom would see the Hall of Fame: Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, Tony La Russa, and James Augustus “Catfish” Hunter.

In 1969, the Pittsburgh Pirates began their relationship with Bradenton that is now more than 50 years old. The team had started their Spring Training in Florida in 1918 and at various points were based in Jacksonville, Miami Beach, Fort Pierce and Fort Meyers. A 40 year lease was signed for Bradenton with an option for 40 more. This deal, signed under Galbreath, was one of his most lasting actions for the club.

The 1970s – The Southern City of Champions

The Pirates had won the 1960 World Series against the Yankees, and John Galbreath, a wealthy contractor and developer, had owned the club since 1946.  He would sell almost half his shares in 1983, eventually selling the rest in 1986.  Galbreath was a stable owner who knew baseball but he began to battle the economics of the game when Free Agency started in 1976.

When the club stepped foot on friendly McKechnie Field in 1969, the roster included pitchers Steve Blass, Jim Bunning, Dock Ellis, Bob Veale and Bob Moose. Manny Sanguillen was catching.  Al Oliver, Bill Mazeroski and Richie Hebner were in the infield.  The outfield had Robert Clemente and Matty Alou.  It shouldn’t be a surprise they went on to win the 1971 World Series, beating the Baltimore Orioles with Clemente having an MVP performance at age 37, batting .414 in the series. Three Rivers Stadium was only a year old.

In conjunction with the Pirates arrival came the construction of Pirate City.

The 1980s – A Time for Change

Pirates outfielder Dave Parker once said “playing in the outfield [at McKechnie] was like playing in a potato patch.”  The reputation as an underwhelming facility was known league-wide, so eventually, the city installed new grass and built new clubhouses, a grandstand and a press box in the 1980s. McKechnie was still the oldest spring training facility in Florida with all the issues that come with that, so city officials agreed to give the Pirates a renovated stadium to make sure they would stay.

Chuck Tanner still led the Buccos through two winning seasons in 1982 and 1983, but with a 57-104 record in 1985, Tanner and GM Hardy Peterson were asked to leave as Galbreath sold his remaining stake in the club.

41 year-old Jim Leyland took the helm, never having managed an MLB club. The material he had to work with wasn’t bad: Rafael Belliard (age 24), Barry Bonds (21), Bobby Bonilla (23), Sid Bream (25), Joe Ursulak (24), Tony Pena (29), John Smiley (21), and Bob Walk (29). The great scouting had still been going on in the background.

The atmosphere was said to be very professional, positive, focused on excellent player development, and Leyland was both as good a game strategist as he was a coach. Syd Thrift, the new GM, came from a long and successful career in scouting, and was a compliment to Leyland because he was very visible and involved with the players day to day at Spring Training.

As a result of this great baseball environment improvement was rapid, never losing 100 or more games in a season. 1986 saw 64-98, but after that the records were 80-82 (1987) and 85-75 (1988). Syd Thrift left in October 1988.

In 1989 the club made modest improvements with a 74-88-2 record, but in 1990 they broke through, finishing 95-67. They, unfortunately, lost to the Reds in the NL Championship Series. 1990 was also the year Cameron Hubert Bonifay came aboard as scouting director. He was with the team for 11 years. Cam is 72 this year and lives right up the road from LECOM in St. Petersburg, FL.

The 1990s – A Spark, then Darkness

1990, 1991 and 1992, the Pirates reached the National League Championship, losing those to the Reds, then twice to the Atlanta Braves. Ted Turner was beginning to step back from meddling with Baseball operations in Atlanta and they became a pitching juggernaut, finally winning the World Series in 1995.

Even though the Pirates had not won a pennant their success prompted another renovation at McKechnie Field that was barely finished by Spring Training in 1993, taking a great deal of inspiration from Forbes Field. The facade was designed to echo the old Spanish Mission style Bradenton railroad station. The ballpark was heralded by George Will (a part owner of the Orioles at that time), USA Today. The architect, Lou Astorino, eventually went on to design PNC Park as well, opening in 2001.

1994 brought the eighth, and longest, strike of Major League Baseball history. The last 50 games were cancelled and, for the first time since 1904, a World Series was not played. After 232 days, the strike ended resulting in an abbreviated 1995 series of 144 games, commencing on April 2, 1995 – I am not sure but I assume Spring Training was skipped that year. Attendance decreased 20% from 1994 levels. Many fans where angry. The game was in crisis.

Kevin McClatchy – who is two year younger than the author – became the managing owner of the Pirates in February 1996 at age 33. He would remain in the role until stepping down as CEO in 2007, after 21 years.

In September of 1996, unhappy with the new ownership group’s slashing of payroll, Leyland asked to resign and McClatchy released him from the final four years of his contract. Cam Bonifay hired Gene Lamont as field manager. Lamont was the manager through the remainder of the 1990s, but was asked to leave after the 2000 season four losing seasons.

In the late 1990s a campaign started to use mostly public funding to replace Three Rivers Stadium with two sport-specific stadiums.

The Two Thousand Aughts

Brand new PNC Park opened for the 2001 season with much fanfare – it was the fifth home of the Pirates, returning to the North Shore. The MLB All- Star game was held there in 2006. In 2009, The Pirates reached the end of their 40 year contract with Bradenton as occupants of McKechnie Field. It was a fine facility and they decided to continue on.

There were new improvements at McKechnie Field in 2008 as well – a new visitors clubhouse, a new press lounge, and lights. In addition improvements were made at Pirates City, partially funded by the state to support keeping baseball in Florida. The partnership has been good over the years.

But the Pirates were still in the early years of a streak of 20 losing seasons. After Gene Lamont was released, 2001 brought former Pirate Lloyd McClendon back to McKechnie Field and the new PNC Park as the new manager. McClendon brought energy and real player experience to the job, but after five seasons was not able to break .500 and was replaced by new fourth-year GM Dave Littlefield during the 2005 season with Pete Mackanin. The next year, Jim Tracy, who had moderate success with the Dodgers, was brought in. I met Jim Leyland in the mall that year and he vouched for Tracy as a good baseball man who would help – always the class act, Mr. Leyland.

Tracy oversaw two more losing seasons and was gone. New GM Neal Huntington replaced Tracy with John Russell who closed out the 00s with three more losing seasons and went 186-299 (.324).

The 2010s – ‘Reconnecting with the City’

In 2011 a very interesting manager was brought in to lead the club – a smart man, a man with passion, and a many who knew about being saved – Clint Hurdle. Perhaps more than the rest of Pirates ownership or management, he knew his real job was to reconnect the ballclub with the City and the fans.

Among the long list of players that greeted the new manager at sunny Bradenton were – well when I review the list I recognize a few, but the list doesn’t knock me over: Josh Harrison, Jameson Taillon, Neal Walker, Gregory Polanco, Gift Ngope, Dovydas Neverauskas, Jordy Mercer and Jared Hughes and Starling Marte. Oh – and Drew Maggi! But they drafted Gerrit Cole that year. Taillon was the previous year. Hard to believe McCutchen was drafted way back in 2005.

Hurdle is a fascinating man. My wife and her friend are a little head over heels about him! After watching Hurdle manage the team for a year and not knowing his story, I told my smitten wife ‘…it looks to me like he’s lived – well, a little bit of a rough life.’

Hurdle had indeed had a tumultuous youth, but had found ways to recover, overcome and excel, and he was one of the old school managers who just knew more than the other guys. But he also built extraordinary teamwork among, and insight into, his players. He was also not shy about bringing his faith into the clubhouse and his relationships with players. So now I’m the one who’s a little head over heels, and I read his emails every day (except Sundays).

Spring Training must have been more fun each year as the club climbed from 72-90 in 2011 to 98-64 in 2015. In early 2012, as a continued advancement of the partnership with the Pirates, Bradenton officials helped pay for $7.5 million in renovations to McKechnie, including new seating, enhanced fan plazas, a tiki bar, more concession stands, restroom improvements, an upgraded sound system, scoreboard and a boardwalk which would circumnavigate the stadium.

Under the deal, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who contributed the equivalent of $150,000 annually to market the city of Bradenton, planned to increase their marketing donation to $400,000 annually. In a deal with the Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine, the Pirates renamed it LECOM Field in 2017, but named the player clubhouse after McKechnie.

2013-2014-2015 have been the most exciting seasons in decades. In 2013, the club won a 1-game Wild Card game vs the Reds to enter the post-season, but lost to the Cardinals 3-2. In a recent article, I read that in 2015 when Neal Huntington proposed a new Performance Center at Pirates City, an enlarged clubhouse at McKechnie Field, and new media center, ownership told him to get the $8M in costs from baseball operations (mostly payroll). That choice had meaningful and negative consequences. After 2015, the club started to disinvest in the team, payroll dropping from $99 million in 2016 to $45 million in 2021. Huntington, Hurdle and President Frank Connelly were let go in 2019.

While the residue from the Huntington/Hurdle era in the 2010s left a great club culture and rebuilt the support of the fans and City of Pittsburgh, it also established expectations. My first few years attending Spring Training also expanded my support and expectations of the franchise but the ultimate expectation of a fans is much more in team wins than tiki bars and Jumbotrons. Although they don’t hurt!

Bradenton and its surroundings wove their magic on Clint Hurdle like they have on so many other players and managers. He bought a house on Anna Maria Island and lives there with his family. He works for the the Rockies in player development, but travels and speaks extensively for many organizations. He holds an annual fundraiser during the last week of Spring Training for Prader-Willy Syndrome and it’s a great event.

The 2020s – Where We Are

In 2020, Ben Cherington was hired as General Manager, Travis Williams as club President and Derek Shelton as field manger. During the changeover, Bob Nutting expressed his desire to see better player development so as not to see players the Pirates drafted go elsewhere and play better. Cherington has brought in many cutting edge approaches to player development and game strategy. The jury is still out on the new approaches but the fan base remembers Hurdle and Leyland, two ‘old school’ managers, as the most recent proven successes in Pittsburgh.

LECOM and Pirates City are great facilities that are not only fan friendly but wonderful resources that are utilized year-round. Many people make an annual trek to Bradenton and enjoy the emergence of new prospects as well as close-up interaction with beloved veterans.

In 2023, Bradenton, the Pirates and LECOM celebrated 100 years of Spring Training in that location, and the Pirate’s Jim Trdinich produced the display boards shown above in each decade. He used the book ‘Spring Training in Bradenton and Sarasota’ by Raymond Sinibaldi as a resource for much the material. Several members of the Baseball Hall of Fame, such as Roberto Alomar, Johnny Bench, Bert Blyleven, Wade Boggs, Roberto Clemente, Andre Dawson, Vladimir Guerrero, Roy Halladay, Reggie Jackson, Fred McGriff, Bill Mazeroski, Joe Morgan, Jack Morris, Phil Niekro, David Ortiz, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Cal Ripken Jr., Mariano Rivera, Ivan Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt, Tom Seaver, Willie Stargell, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Ted Williams, Dave Winfield, have played on these historic fields and grown to love their temporary Gulf Coast home.

LECOM Field is the oldest stadium still in use for Spring Training. 

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – And So it Begins

2-26-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Sorry it’s late today peeps, had life stuff to deal with. Let’s dig right in tonight.

1. The Starting Catcher, Has NOT Been Named

Listen, Ben Cherington has now said the same exact thing twice about the Catching position. Derek Shelton has too. Part of me doesn’t want to bother with this again, since I already addressed it once but being as it has once again caused Pirates fans to Davinci Code this into a controversy, here goes.

Yasmani Grandal is on the team. Full stop. That’s all that’s ever been said about him, by anyone. The Pirates have 2 spots they’re going to allocate to the catching position and they haven’t decided who the second player will be.

I’m not sure why this has created the firestorm it has.

Never has it been said there is a competition for the backup role. They’ve gone out of their way to call them “spots”, meaning Grandal has one spot, and one of the other catchers will earn the other spot. Not the starter, not the backup, just a spot.

They haven’t named Grandal the starter, they’ve simply decided the guy they paid 2.5 million is going to make the team if health permits. This isn’t to name Grandal the “1” and whoever else the “2”, this isn’t the QB position, and it’s not how they worded it. He’s 1 of 2, not 1 then 2.

Let me spin this around for a second, because the reason and discussion I tried last time clearly didn’t take.

I’ll start right here, if Henry Davis is ready to start in MLB, the Pirates have no underlying benefit to start him in AAA. They save no real money. They’d really not stop his control clock, and they’d miss out on having his bat in the lineup.

I say all this because for some reason fans want to assume there is some Skeletor style evil plot, as though sabotaging their own 1:1 pick or the team is happening at all times. LOL

All they’ve said is they’ll pick their second catcher, likely from the group of Ali Sanchez, Jason Delay and Henry Davis. If you’re truly of the belief they’ve predetermined that Davis will start in AAA (they haven’t) the only reason to be mad is if he looks like he can do the job and they ship him anyway.

If you believe in Davis, you should believe he can win a competition for this job, Lord knows he does. Spring is about creating competition, even when there is none. They won’t name their 4th and 5th starters either, do you think that means Chase Anderson is automatically the 4? Apply your logic to other spots. Alika Williams is in camp, and they haven’t named Liover Peguero the starter at 2B, should we assume he’s headed to AAA so Alika can start?

Let’s say for whatever reason they just name Davis the starter. This is what many of you want to hear. Now imagine he simply looks like he can’t handle certain aspects and they have to backtrack. Sure would be nice if all three catchers fighting for a spot, actually thought they were fighting for a spot.

This is being blown out of proportion, and assumptions are being made by people who immediately read incompetence every time they speak.

Bottom line: They haven’t named a starter at the position, just acknowledged that the veteran they brought in will be one of them. Davis can, and is already off to a good start, win himself the gig, and if I had to guess, I’d assume he’ll do so. I’ll also go so far as to say he’ll prove he’s the starter.

2 days in, and we’re already getting mad about roster decisions that haven’t been made, aren’t being threatened to be made, and won’t be made.

Connor Joe started in Right Field yesterday, guess Olivares should pack it up right? It’s Spring Training, and if you’re honest, you want this team to tell you Henry Davis will be the starting catcher, period. That simply won’t happen until he either earns it, or by default and due to injury he’s the winner. Rookies are rarely handed starting roles on day 2 of the Spring schedule, and that’s all this is. Getting kids to run through the tape.

When they start making cuts, this stuff will clear up. Henry’s danger is if he looks like he can’t handle the position. All accounts are he looked really good Saturday. If he was a bit of cleanup and reps away from getting it, you could see him starting in AAA as the starter, but folks he’d have to be pretty damn shaky for that to come to fruition.

Relax. Henry doesn’t feel a quarter of the pressure many of you are feeling about this subject.

I’d say Ben and company could word it better, but man, I honestly think they’re trying to. Short of saying Henry is the starter unless he sucks is just not something you’re ever going to hear.

2. Young Pitchers

Jared Jones was straight up electric the other day, easily hitting 98-99 on the gun and the movement was incredible.

I hate to be that guy, but keep calm. It was just one inning and a lot of these youngsters are probably capable of one or two innings at this level, and I mean when the teams are at their full strength too, but someone like Jones, if you want him to be a starter has some more work to do.

I say this now because as the Spring rolls on you’ll see Solometo, Chandler, Skenes, Sullivan, Ashcraft, I mean this team has some very live young arms, just understand where they are, and that there is more to learn.

Conversely, should one or more get tattooed in an inning, that matters almost just as much.

The really important ones to watch are the guys who have some MLB experience, and a legit shot to make the club. Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, those types, they’re going to be working toward something right now, and that will cause the team to ask them to do things they won’t ask the others to do. That could mean more innings, it could even mean an entire outing with nothing but fastballs.

Every box score you see in Spring has an entire story behind it.

Back to Jared Jones, because he’s a great for instance. The Pirates spent almost all of 2023 teaching him a changeup and in his first outing of Spring, Jared threw almost exclusively fastballs and cutters, with one curveball mixed in.

That’s not to say he can’t throw a change, or that he shies away from the curve, it’s instead to say, in one inning, a kid with electric stuff didn’t need to show much of his secondary offering. If he were to start, the second time around he’d have to start using it a bit. On the other hand, it shouldn’t be assumed he can’t throw them and is destined to be a bullpen arm.

Patience is hard, but you simply can’t do the onboard process without it.

3. Roansy Day?

Today was a big day, because if Roansy Contreras can look like some semblance of what he was in 2022, well this could be a lot better to look at as far as a rotation goes.

So he went out today and threw a couple innings. For fans begging to see something positive, you kind of have to put on your X-ray glasses a bit cause they aren’t pretty numbers.

2 innings pitched, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, a walk and no strikeouts.

Yuck right?

Well, here’s the X-ray glasses, put them on if you like, skip ahead if Spring stats are it for you, I’ll even put it in a different color for you. Also, if you do skip, he sucks I guess

The Pirates clearly had him working on throwing a top of the zone heater in this game, regardless of outcome, it was their intention to make sure he threw this pitch to Big League competition. 3 or 4 in a row? Sure. To arguably three of the league’s best high fastball hitters going? Yup. Because teams aren’t scouting individual matchups the way they will later in Spring.

The important takeaways from today, he was consistently living at 95-96 with his fastball. He had one ball hit hard off of it, the other hits were two flares and a grounder. There was a lot of movement, and a lot of effectively so. Seeking soft contact, got soft contact. Breaking stuff had good movement, but not sharp, overall command issues but promising as it comes to the issues he had last year. Something to build on.

People, if Roansy Day can somehow come back, this whole thing looks a lot more in line with where it needs to be than even a week ago. A big Spring from Ro, and at least some of the Pirates unwillingness or lack of success adding to the rotation could be forgiven.

I’d still feel better about having another.

Keller, Perez, and Gonzales would be fine if Perez and Gonzales were both coming off solid seasons and health respectively. I’ll take both, and think both have a solid chance to really contribute, but what I fear are injuries or ineffectiveness.

The fear here is that you wind up calling on guys like Chase Anderson or Wily Peralta because they left themselves short. You want guys like Skenes to force their way into a call up, not get the nod because the team screwed themselves into being forced into it.

That is, was, and will be the fear.

I’ll remind, last year, we entered the season with Keller, Vinny, Brubaker, Hill, and Contreras. Before the first week of the season they lost Brubaker and it forced Oviedo into service, which he handled well, then Vinny went down and it forced them into piggy backing and ultimately calling up Quinn Priester before they wanted to, he didn’t fare so well.

In other words, they had one pitcher they felt could be ready to support this rotation in Oviedo.

Entering this year, if I had to pick 5 it’s not a steady feeling. You have the 3 I mentioned, then Ro, Quinn, Ortiz, and straight up rookies unless you use some of the NRI guys they brought in.

Signing another, even if it’s Lorenzen, could stabilize things, and provide an extra layer of protection before you have to get weird.

The Pirates may ultimately decide to not add, every passing day makes it seem more and more likely, but if they don’t, we probably shouldn’t assume they’re dead wrong any more than anyone would assume they’re completely right. Roansy, Quinn and Ortiz all have pedigree, and have experienced some MLB workload to varying levels of success. They could be right, and these guys are enough.

All I’m saying is, if I truly want to support this team’s chances to win something this year, I personally would add in another fortification. The Zombies may never attack from the West, but damnit, build the fence anyway.

4. 2 for 2

Two big dingers for Termarr Johnson the 19 year old 2B for the Buccos.

Now, I can’t sit here and tell you this is some career defining moment or he’s gunning for opening day, I simply can’t say something like that. What I can say is both these homeruns were off MLB pitchers, and not just guys who have been MLB pitchers, I mean current MLB pitchers.

The first, he hammered a high fastball on an 0-2 count, the second he jumped on a slider from a lefty on the first pitch and took it 402, oh, I almost forgot, on a line, this thing was a piss missile.

This kid is no joke as a prospect. His ceiling, well, it’s quite honestly still insane to imagine. At 19 years old, he will provide pressure for everyone in front of him manning second base. This year would be a stretch to be sure, but regardless of what Peguero, Bae, Triolo, Gonzales, Cheng all do, Termarr is comin’.

Just don’t go nuts when he gets cut in a week or so, Skenes will too, it’s just kinda how it goes with MLB rules, an injury starts the MLB clock past a certain date in Spring, and nobody, I mean nobody is going to do that with a highly touted prospect not on the 40-man.

5. Cruz Played Baseball

Man, it was good to see. He had a double play that looked a bit awkward and you kinda held your breath a bit and cringed, but he got it done, smiled a bit after. Had to feel good just to get tested a bit quickly. Arm sure as hell still works fine.

Took some big swings including launching a foul ball like well out of the park.

Almost none of it mattered. The important thing was seeing the big guy get back out there and do baseball things. Little things like that stutter stop double play, well, it tests him and his leg in ways therapy and training maybe don’t, and if it doesn’t hurt, he probably feels ever so much more confident in it. Even if it’s just in the back of his head, things like this help it fade.

Derek Shelton says they’re going to have to get creative trying to get him as many at bats as they can this Spring. Some of that might be in a DH role, just to give him plenty of rest.

It feels like anyone who sees the Pirates improving in any way assumes it will come 90% from Cruz, but I personally hate to pile that kind of pressure on, at least early in the season. Oneil is an athlete, but you can tell some mechanics didn’t just come to him, he worked himself to where he was, he didn’t just gift himself there. Sometimes that doesn’t snap right back, sometimes it does cause it’s so beaten in through repetition.

For now, I just wanna keep seeing him stretch himself at his own pace and have fun doing it. A loose Oneil is a fun to watch Oneil.

Know Your Enemy – Cincinnati Reds 2024 & Beyond

2-26-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Residents of Cincinnati have a lot of reason to be bullish on their baseball team right now.

The Reds were the darling of the baseball world for a period in 2023. It seemed as though each week they had a new & exciting player being called upon from the minor leagues. And each time that player reached the Show, they made a splash. As things often go, the team hit a skid after a red hot stretch. The perils of a young core.

So, the team will get a fresh go at it in 2024 with almost all hands on deck. Below is a zoomed out view of the organization as it stands currently.

Pitching

Andrew Abbott – Called up during the early post-Super 2 season (aka early June), Abbott had
an impressive rookie debut. Abbott posted a 2.2 fWAR 120 Ks, and a 3.87 ERA with peripherals that back up the results for the most part. Given that Abbott pitches in the worst hitters park in baseball and he gave up a lot of hard contact (5th percentile EV/6th percentile for Max EV), a lot of fly balls, and pairs them with a hitter friendly launch angle (21 degrees), this gives some pause when considering him as a possible front end option. Regardless, the debut was great. I expect there will be some ERA regression unless the batted ball profile changes in the right direction, but he will be a Reds SP for some time.

Hunter Greene – Somehow Greene is still just 24 years old and will be for the majority of the
2024 season too. Hampered by injury in 2023, the fireballer flashed his potential yet again in
what Reds fans may consider to be a frustrating sophomore year. The talent is there for a
monster breakout in his 3rd season and I would not be surprised to see him do it. His stuff is
LOUD. He does surrender some hard EVs against, but that is probably a case of him throwing
so damn hard the ball just being hit at all means it will come off the bat hot too. It needs to be noted that the rumor is Greene has added a splitter to his repertoire for 2024. The addition of a new pitch that “works” could portend a true ascension for him. If he approaches near 160-180 IP it will mean good things for the Reds.

Nick Lodolo – The 2019 1st round selection was a trendy breakout pick preseason. What the
Reds got was an injury plagued, underperforming 34.1 IP. His underlying numbers show that he was not as bad as the surface stats (6.29 ERA vs 4.83 xERA) & the stuff very much “popped” in generating whiffs, chases, Ks, and avoiding BBs. The sample was quite small and the health was quite poor. I still believe in Lodolo having high K #2 starter kind of ability if he can get his innings in and remain healthy. Two very big ifs to this point of his young career.

Graham Ashcraft – Yet another young fireballer in the Reds rotation. Ashcraft was a bit of a
mystery box in 2023. He throws an extremely hard cutter (95.8 mph avg) and sinker (96.5 mph avg) along with an effective hard slider (33.1 whiff%). His contact allowed is right at league average EV with a lower than average launch angle surrendered. Unfortunately he was not able to keep these figures down at his 2022 totals and it saw his results worsen a bit. The stuff he presents would make you expect a breakout is possible. But he just might not be able to get the Ks and avoid quality contact enough to reach new levels yet.

Nick Martinez – A newly added piece for the Reds, Martinez had a very successful 2023
season. While he appeared in 63 games he only started 9 total games. He enjoyed a great deal of success and earned himself a nice 3 year, $26 million dollar deal. Currently penciled into the starting rotation, Martinez will bring terrific flexibility to this club. In his career to this point he has been very able to suppress hard contact (98th percentile EV against & 95th percentile hard hit%), and he will need to keep that up as he takes his talents to the toughest pitcher’s park in the division.

Frankie Montas – Freshly inked to a 1 year/$16 million dollar deal for the Reds. In his last two
full seasons Montas has been a very gnarly pitcher. Frankie posted a 4.0 fWAR season for
Oakland in 2021 and remained dominant for 104.2 IP in Oakland in 2022. At the deadline the
Yankees acquired his services and he was abysmal. Part of this was due to the change in
parks, Oakland being a cavernous pitchers park & new Yankee Stadium being much more hitter friendly confines. Last we saw of Montas he threw 1.1 inning in the majors for the Bombers and just 3 AAA innings of rehab work. There is not much to glean from this other than to say based on what he got paid, the Reds must think he can bounce back to his pre-injury performance. I am hesitant to say he can be his old 2021 self again, but fans might be able to expect something akin to his 2022 level of play. His new home park is a hitters paradise, but his health should be much better than during his time in NY.
He looks locked in to the rotation and that begs the question of how do they all fit? Could we
see a 6 man rotation developing here?

Bullpen Bullet Points

Alexis Diaz – Diaz throws pure filth. One of the premier closers in the league. Can get a little
wild, but the trade off is big swing & miss stuff.

Lucas Sims – Sims has an arsenal tailor made for a set up role. He has struggled with health in
the past, but the stuff is great for the back end of a bullpen.

Emilio Pagan – Brought in via free agency. Pagan had a nice year back of the “baseball card”
year. He is currently slated to pitch in a set up role. I would expect him to regress to a sub 1
fWAR RP in 24.

Hitters

Joey Votto – Old friend Joey Votto remains unsigned to date. With the swell of young talent
arriving on a near daily basis for the Reds, it is difficult to envision a reunion happening. Not
impossible given his identity as a Red through and through. But hard to see becoming a reality as it stands.

Matt McLain – His middle infield partner gets a lot of the press, but McLain quietly put up an
awesome rookie debut. He is a terrific athlete, capable-to-good defender at both 2B and SS,
possesses plenty of game power, and a good approach with slight swing & miss bouts as a
rookie. While he did not make many super-human type plays like the next guy on our list, he
looks to be a clear fixture for this team.

Elly De La Cruz – Elly De La Cruz. A baseball unicorn. He is slightly divisive in some circles
because he has a clear set of warts in his game. More or less every baseball fan has seen or
heard of the absolute absurd nature of his gifts for the game of baseball. But will he ever be able to shake his approach and whiff issues? Many Pirate fans are fighting the good fight online arguing about who is better; Oneil Cruz or Elly De La Cruz. While I think this is mostly silly, because why can’t both just be viewed as good and extremely fun? I think it sort of highlights that they’ve got similar specters haunting them and threatening their upside at the dish. Similarly to how Oneil ended his debut season, Elly also was making some noticeable headway by improving his swing decisions and whiff% against breaking pitches. In his brief showing before being felled by injury, Oneil Cruz had appeared to maintain his approach tweaks into 2023. We will find out if De La Cruz (and Oneil) is capable of holding these gains into 2024. I must admit that I hope to see them both figure it out. Will it be frustrating for one of the Pirates chief opps to have a baseball mutant of their own? Yes. But baseball is better when there are more of these guys around!

The upside with ELDC is truly hard to fathom. I expect the batting average to remain on the low side in 2024. But I would not be surprised to see a 30/50 homer/steal season. I almost expect it, even.

Spencer Steer – Steer was a mega success story in 2023. A fringey kind of prospect for Minnesota, steer is not on the fringe any more. The bat appears to be real. His deficiencies with the glove sort of make him homeless on that end. While it could become tricky as the Reds seemingly unending flow of talent keeps going, his bat will keep him on the field in whatever spot will hurt the team the least.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES was also part of the same deal that brought Spencer Steer over from Minnesota. I regret to say, but he looks like a dawg. It was a pretty small sample size at the Major League level, he does look like a legit big time power hitter though. He checks many of the boxes you’d look for. Hits the ball extremely hard on average, hits the ball extremely hard on line drives and flyballs, did not struggle terribly with breaking pitches or off speed pitches. It is a successful slugger’s profile at heart. He did have a little whiff in his game, but that is par for the course with this kind of guy. CES should annually challenge for 30 homer seasons with a pretty good batting average to boot.

TJ Friedl – If there is one name to expect to not “buy” what we saw in 2023, it is Friedl. For three straight seasons now he has outperformed his xStats and underlying data. As a general rule of mine, when a player has been able to replicate this for multiple seasons in a row, it starts to become a skill in its own right. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, but he does pull & lift the ball relatively well. This approach is similar to that of a lesser Isaac Paredes approach. And also like Paredes, Friedl plays in a park that allows this to play up. It is not wise to continually bet on players to outpace their underlying numbers over the long haul, but he is in his prime years right now. A regression is possible, certainly. But it may not be as big as one would immediately expect.

Will Benson – Benson was a KYE favorite last season and much of that doesn’t change for It does not appear that he is a full time player though. Benson only saw 41 ABs against
LHPs in 2023 and the splits were clear. He is a dangerous hitter against RHPs though.
Stop me when you’ve heard this before, but he too exceeded his underlying xStats. Here again we see the home ballpark factor giving him a bump. Make no mistake though, Benson hits it hard on average and pretty hard in the air. His approach is OK. Benson will not chase often, but he’s got a high whiff%. It does not appear that he could function as a full time player at this point, but he is a dangerous piece nonetheless.

Noelvi Marte – Marte debuted and had a solid showing in his 35 game sample. One of the big
knocks on Marte was that he was not really a premium athlete. Well, all he did was post a near elite MLB sprint speed of 29.1 ft/s. Pair that with top end max EVs and well above average average EVs and you’ve got a scary young player. One lagging factor is an extremely below optimal launch angle sitting at just 1.9 degrees. Small sample alert overall – but at a glance he has proved himself to be very much an elite prospect. It must be noted that he is already battling a hamstring injury sustained this winter. While it does not sound too serious, these injuries can linger and have an impact in many facets of the game.

Jonathan India – India had a nice bounceback season after a disappointing sophomore year. The overall production was still down with just a 99 wRC+ and a slightly above average wOBA. Nevertheless he is a solid contributor across the board on offense. This roster is clogged with a lot of good pieces, so he may be rounding out into a utility sort of role in 2024.

Jeimer Candelario – The biggest offensive player brought in by the Reds, Candelario has a very “Reds” profile. That is to say; he spent most of 2023 overperforming his underlying data. Bringing him in should allow for a competent bat that can play a few positions, mainly 1B, 3B, & DH. Things get crowded quickly in Cincinnati when trying to put together their projected lineups.

Farmhands

Connor Phillips – Phillips got a small taste of the Majors in 2023. The results were mixed, but he flashed his truly nasty sweeper that resulted in a .159 wOBA against & a .091 BA against. The control will need to be firmed up or he could end up in the bullpen eventually.

Chase Petty – Early this offseason there have been reports of Petty reaching big time velocities. If he is able to maintain this, you will see him skyrocket up prospect ranks. He already possesses a great slider and control (5.8 BB% at A+ & 3.2% at AA). One to watch close.

Rhett Lowder – The number 7 overall pick in the 2023, Lowder has yet to debut yet. He is an advanced arm and should move quickly to the upper minors.

Edwin Arroyo – Still just 20 years old, Arroyo feels as though he has been on the radar for a long time. As his profile stands currently he has the potential to be an average to above contributor in all facets of the game.

Sal Stewart – The 32nd overall selection in 2022, Stewart is primed to see his stock blast off in 2024. The approach is good with a higher BB% than K% in the lower minors. Physically there is a lot of projection due to his large frame at 6’3” 215lbs.

Blake Dunn – Dunn is in an odd place as a prospect. Old for his level in most of 2023, but the
production is hard to doubt. He went for 23 homers, 54 steals, and hit .304 across A+/AA. Given his age it is tough to predict where his ultimate ceiling is, but the ingredients are there for him to be a Major League player.

Well, as much fun as it is to take a dive on this organization, I think this is a good spot to leave it for this point of the season. If I had to guess; I would say this team has the talent to make a statement in 2024. But I think that they are still not quite in the same tier as St. Louis, Milwaukee, and maybe the Cubs. Seeing Cincinnati excel would not surprise me. On the other side of the coin, seeing them have their struggles with extremely brilliant moments is more in line with my expectations in 2024.

The Pirates Next Extension Candidates

2-23-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

We wondered if this team would extend anyone when this process began, and a little over a year in, we found out, yes, they will. Well, Hayes anyway we thought, and what an affordable deal, surely that was the only reason a deal happened, the player took a very team friendly deal.

The next year, same old same old, another player who wants out, Reynolds had enough! Until he didn’t, and they managed to get his deal done the second year in a row eclipsing their high water mark for contracts.

And today as of 3:00 PM, they’ve officially signed another in Mitch Keller.

What they’ve shown us is they are actively trying to lock up members of the core, so it stands to reason, we should probably take some time to try and identify the candidates and talk a little bit about why each does and doesn’t make sense.

Let’s also take just a moment to talk about something else I’ve been seeing from the fans who must always ensure you see the negative. Meaning the people who show up to a baby shower wanting to plan the kid’s funeral types metaphorically speaking of course.

Every extension they do, yes, very likely could end in a trade. In other words, you aren’t shaking my confidence that this is an important part of building a team, and the primary reason is it’s essential to getting the talent to line up. So much goes into those decisions when the time comes. How do the young players come 2028 look, in other words, can you move the contracted player on merit? How does the team look. Might they extend again? How have they performed? Point being, yelling at fans they’ll trade them, well, you’re gonna be right sometimes, congrats, but it isn’t important to right now, or the next few seasons really.

Now, let’s have some fun. And I’ll just do 5, that’s enough, and if you have more, happy to hear your pitch. Also, don’t get hung up on will they, would they, they won’t, they can’t, let’s just talk through it and make a case.

1. Paul Skenes

For Extension – If this franchise truly believes Paul Skenes will debut in 2024, I think it’s a brilliant idea. Let’s do some math, I know, gross, but let’s do it anyway. In any young player’s first three years they’ll make league minimum unless they sign a contract that pays them more. League minimum will raise by 20K year over year for the next two leading into the new CBA. For Paul that would mean if he started right out of Spring (set aside your opinion on this for the moment) $2.26 Million. He obviously has the bonus he signed for too so he won’t go hungry. Then arb starts and that’s where this gets tricky, cause you have to start guessing. the only player who comes close to Skenes in recent history is probably Gerrit Cole but it’s been a while, and inflation is real. In arbitration he made a cool $24 Million. Now, Gerrit didn’t fly out the gate so let’s say that was probably low anyway so lets give Paul a very optimistic for him 32 million. To me, that number right there is why this is possible. You take those 6 affordable years and try to buy 2 or 3 years where yes he could easily make another 20-25-dare I say 30 mil per on the open market. Approach him with 9 years 75 million, pay a little more now so you keep him longer and keep his pay reasonable later in turn. Even if I’m off a few mil here, it’s not a whole lot on either side. Now, let him prove it for a year, everything I just wrote is erased. Those extra years are what get more and more expensive.

Against Extension – I mean, we’ve seen like 10 minutes of this guy. He looks like he has crazy good stuff, but let’s not pretend 75 million even if it’s spread out wouldn’t be a risk. What if he has a career path like Taillon? What if that electric stuff for whatever reason just doesn’t fool MLB hitters often enough? Tough to 100% say this is anything more than a bet with nice odds to pay out.

2. David Bednar

For Extension – David just got 4.5 million in his first year of arbitration, he has 2 more and then he’s a free agent. If he continues to perform the way he has he’ll get significant raises in each of his next two. I’d guess as much as 20 million over the course of 2025 and 2026. Buying extra years, well, it depends on how much you think they’ll be worth. He’ll be 32 in 2027 probably time to stop thinking better is in front of him, at best you hope he holds where he is at that point on right. These would be a couple expensive years. I think he’d probably accept a home town discount, but it can’t be an insult, he will still be a very good reliever most likely, even if not a closer. have to imagine 10 mil AAV is the starting point there, and since that’s where we are over the next two anyway, if you want him I say you start with 4 years 40 million and see if he’ll bite. I mean, you kinda can’t give that to Chapman and then tell David you can’t afford it.

Against Extension – It’s really his age. Closers just don’t tend to have long careers as closers. For a guy like David losing even a tick off his upstairs heater could turn him mortal, still a good pitcher, but man. I also can’t get past how many live arms are coming and already here. A lot of them won’t make the rotation, but they’ll still have that crazy good stuff. As a rule, not a fan of paying bullpen arms big money, but I admit, the yinzer in me hates making this argument. I just can’t get past thinking this wouldn’t be where I’d concentrate big dollars with the self imposed restrictions this team has.

3. Oneil Cruz

For Extension – He’ll make the league minimum for the two years and then arbitration starts. I won’t bore you with all the math again, just use the formula and know I did too when I offer the contract. This deal is all about risk. A kid who just saw how easily he can lose it all and a team full of hope for the kid, but some serious questions about his ceiling and how fast he can get there. Still, the only reason the Pirates could approach a deal here is if they don’t give him a shot to prove it, if he does his price tag will jump. If I were to take a swing now, I just have to factor in that risk, I mean, I don’t even know if he’ll be a short stop right? We know he’ll play there this year, but, do we stick with it? Ok, here goes, 7 years 60-70 and no, I don’t think he’d take it, that’s just as comfortable as I can get.

Against Extension – Again, it’s the risk. As much as I think he could be a monster, man, we just haven’t gotten so see much of it. And even as I type it I think wake up dummy if he hits 35 homeruns he’ll cost double your silly number! This might be the biggest gut feel of all these moves.

4. Henry Davis

For Extension – A couple things separate Henry from Cruz. One, Davis has not done nearly what Oneil has in the league, and he hasn’t exactly locked down a defensive position either. But if we’re handing out risk balloons while we play Atlanta Braves, he has to be a candidate if only because should he play near his ceiling, he’ll get expensive quick. I think you could go 8-55 or 60 as an approach. I don’t think he’d do it, but…

Against Extension – I think Henry needs to show something before we start handing out extensions to everyone, but the potential is high enough that it merits consideration. It’s important to note, while we all hate the CBA process, the onboarding contract process that so many teams are jumping over trying to keep extensions more affordable is in place because it gives a team some time to make decisions and give yourself a shot to do it in a more educated fashion so hopefully you aren’t dead wrong very often.

5. Jack Suwinski

For Extension – Jack has been a polarizing player for this fan base, and I get it. He hits a ton of homeruns and puts up a good number in the OPS department, which has become very important to some while others clutch tightly to batting average or bust. I’m not going to fight that battle, if you don’t think Jack is good, ok, we aren’t always going to agree. Power is the only thing that costs close to what pitching does. It’s why we discuss such unproven commodities as Davis and Cruz, and Jack has more evidence laid. Not all of it good. Just a general trend of improving in areas, tremendous, easy and raw power, a great eye and likes using it a bit too much instead of the bat. He hasn’t earned big bucks yet, but he has earned attention, and a 30 homerun season will certainly earn him more of that, and more money too. I’d go in right now and see if Jack might with 2 years yet before hitting arbitration take, 7 years 55 or 60. A steal if he does nothing other than play an outfield spot and hit 25-30 homeruns. Brilliant if he stays in Center and hits 35-40. Who knows? Do you roll the dice?

Against Extension – We don’t know yet if Jack can be an everyday player, and if he can’t, all those dreamy homerun totals don’t rise quite as high. Not to mention, man, you hate to extend a guy you’re going to always have to pay another guy to play with him. He’d have to improve in center to consider this and I’d have to see him do something with left handed pitchers, he can’t play everyday if he’s an automatic out, in fact if all he does against them is walk, I’m sorry, I’m paying for damage, not OBP for a guy like Jack. Too early here for me.

Does Success For Bryan Reynolds Correlate to the Team’s Success?

02/23/2024 – Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

I always love correlation, especially when it comes to sports.

Does me matching the jerseys that the Pirates wear on any specific day correlate to them winning more often? I don’t know. I mean the answer is probably no, but I truly don’t know.

One thing I do know is that statistical analysis in baseball can lead to fun questions, questions like the title of this piece.

If you listened to my episode of Locked On Pirates on Reynolds as part of my 2024 Player Preview Series (which you totally should), you may have noticed that I made specific points, with statistical backing, to the potential that Bryan Reynolds and his success directly correlates to the success of the team, and that’s what we’re diving into today.

It is hard to argue that a player has been more consistently productive as a Pirate over the past few years than Bryan Reynolds. Since his arrival with the Pirates, he’s hit .277 in his career and was an All-Star in 2021 while finishing 11th in NL MVP voting.

Although Reynolds hasn’t quite returned to that form from 2021, he’s been a steady presence in the lineup that the Pirates have very much needed, even if they weren’t a good baseball team.

Now, Reynolds has real players in the lineup alongside him, but it stills begs the question: Is he the engine that keeps the train rolling?

Take 2023 for instance: It’s a season many of you look at in three parts – part one being the strong month of April, part two, the fall from grace and part three being the relatively solid finish to the campaign.

When you break Reynolds 2023 season down into those three parts, tell me if it sounds as familiar as the last paragraph when I outline his statistics.

In April, when the Pirates led the National League in wins, Reynolds slashed .323/.351/.586 (.937 OPS) with 5 home runs and 22 RBIs. In May, a month that saw the Pirates go 8-18 with a -42 run differential, Reynolds slashed .242/.312/.414 (.726 OPS) with just two home runs and 13 RBIs.

Before I continue, keep in mind many other factors obviously come into play for the Pirates and their success outside of just Bryan Reynolds. For example, losing Vince Velasquez and trading Rich Hill last season had an impact on the rotation – if you even want to call it a rotation – and the team’s ability to be competitive.

You move on to June, a month that was a slight bounce-back from May for Pittsburgh with an 11-15 record. And, although he dealt with injuries during that month, Reynolds brought his numbers back up, posting his third highest OPS in a month of the season at .799.

Then comes July, another dreadful 8-win month for Pittsburgh, and, you guesses it, another dreadful month for Reynolds. In July, Reynolds slashed a paltry .200/.240/.337 (.557 OPS) which were all his lowest monthly totals of the year last year. He added 4 home runs and 9 RBIs, which was his 2nd lowest monthly total for RBI last season.

Then, you get to part three of the season last year, when the Pirates finished 29-28 in the final months. In August, Reynolds, as he’s been known to do, turned it on, having his second best statistical month of the year with a .288/.339/.559 (.898 OPS) line, knocking 7 homers, his most in any month, and 16 RBIs, his third most in any month.

This was mirrored by the team’s success as August and September were tied for the second highest win total months for Pittsburgh last year with 14. As September began, Reynolds didn’t slow down. A .252/.345/.427/.772 slash line with five home runs and 19 RBIs, with the RBIs being his second highest total in a month last year, would be how Reynolds would end the season while helping lead the Pirates to one of their two winning record months and also helping Pittsburgh improve by 14 wins from 2022.

From May 1 through July 30, the Pirates went 27-49 while Reynolds posted a .232/.309/.380 line with 7 home runs. The rest of the year? .288/.348/.525 with 17 home runs.

So now that you’ve seen all of these statistics and correlations, you may be wondering, was this just last year or has this happened before?

Going back to 2022, the Pirates’ only double-digit winning months came when Bryan Reynolds hit 5+ homers. If his OPS was above .758+ in a given month that season, they won 10+ games.

Go even further back to 2021 – when the team was dreadful at best while Reynolds was elite – the team only won double-digit games in the 3 months (April, July and September). In those months, Reynolds had 25 or more hits, which he also did in May and June, which were terrible months for a terrible team. Sometimes, he’s good and the team just doesn’t pull its weight.

The team has been rebuilding and now is better than it has been for quite awhile. Reynolds may not be asked to carry as much water as he has had to in previous years, but there is a correlation between his success and putting wins up in the standings. It may not be as direct as one may think, but it is clear that as Reynolds continues to perform well, the team seems to follow suit, and that could cook up a Gordon Ramsay-type recipe for success in 2024 not only for No. 10, but for the Pirates as a whole.

He DOES smile!

Pirates Ink Mitch Keller to 5 Year, 77 Million Dollar Extension

2-22-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

There was desire on both sides to get a deal done, and like Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes before him, Mitch Keller becomes another member of this core locked up for most of the decade. This was first reported by Jeff Passan & Kiley McDaniel at ESPN.

Keller and the Bucs are in agreement on a 5 year, 77 million dollar agreement that keeps Keller in Black and Gold through most of the decade and more to the point, continues the effort to lock in players when they feel they’ve found one.

The assumption of course will be that the negative article yesterday made this happen, but anyone who follows contract extensions in MLB knows this has been going on for quite some time and a negative article certainly didn’t make Mitch decide he was suddenly happy to sign.

In 2022 the Pirates extended Ke’Bryan Hayes and Pirates fans noted how nice that was but pointed to some other guys they had to get locked up yet. Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller, David Bednar (who I personally wouldn’t extend), Cruz, Suwinski, there are names, you all know them.

3 straight years the Pirates have managed to put one of these deals together and every time they shine more clarity on when they plan to compete and who they aim to do it with.

Mitch Keller is the only established MLB starter on this roster, last year he set the record for Strikeouts for the organization, overtaking AJ Burnett and being named to his first All Star Game.

Call him what you want, Ace or not, he’s the best starter the Pirates have developed since Gerrit Cole and with 2025 being his last year of arbitration, this was key locking in an internally developed leader for the staff, even if he is overtaken by bigger talent during the duration of this deal.

This makes Mitch the highest paid pitcher in franchise history and it’s the second richest extension the Pirates have ever dished out, topped only by Bryan Reynolds last season.

Of all the work they’ve done locking guys up, this in my mind is the most important yet. When you work as hard as both Mitch and the Pirates have to develop a top of the line starter, the message it sends to the team should you just let him walk or trade him can’t be understated.

He’s needed for what he provides to be sure, that’s always first, but the messaging on this one in particular is valuable to the room. Despite what is said about this team, the room is super tight and extending members of that room is something every member of the roster wants and expects to see.

Each extension makes the next more realistic.

The next big part of this will be the breakdown. For instance, did they sign him for 5 years and one of them is 2024? Or does it start next year? How did they structure this deal? I’ll have to wait for further comment there and I’ll put out there right now, I’d prefer if we found out it starts in 2025.

I have to point out how very hard this had to have been. He’s so close to free agency he can taste it and he sees what is going on in the market today. Make no mistake, this happened because Mitch Keller wanted to be a Pirate. Oh, it’s a fair price 15M AAV, but another good season or two and Mitch could have commanded 20, maybe 25 on the open market. That said, he’s one TJ procedure away from the entire market forgetting anything he did, he’s Woodruff in a heartbeat if he sustains an injury that wipes out a year.

Anyway, good news, really no negatives to be found. I’ll have more when I know more.

**Post Publish- Alex Stumpf reports the deal starts this year and there are no options. Meaning he is extended through the 2028 season. Shorter than either Reynolds or Hayes, but in the ballpark.

Nutting is Cheap, and that Really Changes Nothing

2-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Every year someone writes some exposé about not only how cheap Bob Nutting is, but how incompetent he and his organization have been and in fact are. It’s really never anything fans weren’t aware of, just combining things to show the sum is much worse than they might have assumed. Adding some more meat on already bleached and picked to death bones.

The latest is from the Athletic, a subscription sports site that I’m sure many of you are subscribed to, if you are, read it for yourself. Even if you aren’t, you’ll see quotes from it and repostings for the next month at least. Even winning won’t stop it.

There’s nothing wrong with the piece, it’s well researched, well thought out, just not anything that really raised my eyebrows, maybe with the exception of delaying a trade to save 30K, lol.

Some people will read things like that and really learn some things, but mostly they just provide fuel for people who already want to make Pirates fans feel like crap.

I say that because, the article changes nothing. They don’t expose any criminal enterprise, in fact, they rarely have much more than antidotal stories that help illustrate how cheap he is, or how dumb they are, or how easily they could have…

You get it.

They also never address the system that allows for all of the worst things a baseball owner might want to do. Everything Bob does is sanctioned by the league. If you don’t control the top, you can’t control the bottom.

These articles mean whatever they mean to you, I’m not trying to speak for everyone here, just myself. All they mean for me is when I write a piece about Oneil Cruz next week, until the article blows over, half my comments will be quotes from it that don’t pertain to the piece I’ve written, or overtly asking me how I can be a Pirates fan.

It sucks. But it is what it is. It’s not as though I can deny or would even want to deny what Bob Nutting is.

People who choose to support this team, I’m guessing you if you bothered to click on an article that didn’t call for a firing squad or Mark Cuban, well, we already know all of this, we just choose to deal with it.

For me, I love baseball, and I mean the game itself. I’d watch just about any level of the sport and growing up in Pittsburgh, the Pirates, bad as they’ve been, are my team.

I know what Bob Nutting is. I know what he does and doesn’t do. And yes, I do probably know a bit better than your average fan. I’ll say this, it’s more Bob’s fault than I originally thought when I started doing this. Let’s say when I started I probably blamed the league 75% and Bob 25%, and now I’m probably more 50/50.

I used to say a new owner would pretty much be the same in this market. Now, I could see improvement, better management, higher highs here and there with a new one.

So, I’ve evolved on this, as I evolve on everything.

Now, how do I see past that? Well, I kinda don’t.

Being a Pirates fan, in this system, with this owner who is operating well within the rules that this Collective Bargaining Agreement allows and isn’t at all interested in selling, how could you?

First, you have to accept that winning a championship is going to be extremely hard, but you have to allow a shred of hope that all the bricks fall in the right order, somehow, some way, some time.

Without that shred of hope, you aren’t a fan, you’re a historian.

If you don’t have that impossible to extinguish but barely flickering light inside you, buried, even hidden, there is no fandom. You can love the teams you’ve watched win, you can love the history, be proud of it, celebrate it, pine for it, but if you can’t see even a Mega Millions style shot at winning it all, you might as well open a museum.

Even if you lie about that sliver of hope online to save face. Look yourself in the mirror, if you can tell yourself there’s just no way, period, can’t happen. OK, you’re a fan of the legacy, but going through the motions at best now. Don’t worry, your secret is safe with you.

I start there. For me, there is a narrow path for a team with the obstacles the league offers, and a poor owner, but there is a path.

I think back on this rebuild often, because for better or worse, my writing is tied to it, I started right before they did, and yes, it is a rebuild, even if it hasn’t gone as quickly as you’d like, even if you think it’s going to fail.

I’ve always known Ben Cherington would be restricted in how he could get this done. And I’ve watched Ben Cherington be restricted in how he attempts to get this done.

I’ve also watched him know what he was walking into and approach it exactly as he wanted to given the owner. Note, I mean to say, he’d love more resources, but knew what he was likely going to deal with.

For that reason, I’ve always looked at his job as assembling as much high end talent as he could and getting it to time up. I expect their first winning team to have a payroll under 100 Million.

Meaning, when they produce a winning record, they will have developed or acquired those bones for very little. From there, he’ll be allowed to add a bit more payroll but I’d be shocked if they were ever higher than 15th and I’m being generous leaving the 20’s.

Still think you’re informing me about how bad Nutting is?

Even so, the path he’s taken has taken them exactly where they are. A talented young team, short on starting pitching with quite a few possibilities on the way and a couple guys locked up through the end of the decade. Too long, hey, you can change that about as easily as the owner.

That glimmer of hope flickers a bit brighter for me when I look at the lay of the land from a bit higher. Ground level, it’s not ideal but as you pan back you start to see the framework for how this thing might just come together.

Not saying when, not predicting some crazy rise this year, just saying the act of acquiring talent to work with has provided a lot of players to work through.

In all that, I see unforced errors, at least in my mind, and I try to point them out. I see missed opportunities, or slight forks in the road where I might have gone the other direction, and again, I’ve tried to always be up front about it.

I don’t think Cherington is a proven GM for a market like this, with an owner like this. How could you be? If you want that, you keep Huntington until he retires. I just can’t deny what I see when I look at the overall system near the league and the roster itself. They are undoubtedly better positioned to give this a go than they have been arguably since 2012 and I’d argue better supported by prospect depth, especially on the mound.

This team is going to win. They might not win this year, but they’ll be better, and next year even better than that. Will they ever reach the very top? Well, that’s where the hope part comes in. Because when you build a team that is in that conversation, you’re in regardless of how you did it, you probably just don’t get to stay there as long as the rich kids.

If you expected Cherington to come to Pittsburgh and arm wrestle Bob into spending a bunch of money so he could turn this ship around in 3 years AND improve the system and change the culture and get the payroll up over 150 million, well, maybe you do need articles detailing how little Bob Nutting spends, and how often he actually makes it harder than it needs to be.

I look at this team with a bit of optimism because quite honestly, I think I see reason to. When and if I don’t, I think I’ve shown that too. Overall, the arrow is pointing in the right direction, we just have yet to see if it ends in a plateau or a peak, acknowledging the former is more likely.

Hey, you take these types of stories how ever you like. I appreciate learning whatever I did from it, but for me, there are a lot of stories to tell the day before the first Spring game I’d prefer telling, at least that story isn’t written already.

Important Numbers For Pittsburgh Pirates

2-21-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

I just finished up the busiest time of the year for me (top 30 prospects episodes – check them out if you haven’t already) and now I’m ready to jump back into writing some articles on my beloved Buccos.

Ahead of last season, I did preview pieces on Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo and Ke’Bryan Hayes and predicted breakout seasons for each of them. If not for an early injury that took Burrows out for the year (and what will be most of this year as well), I think I would have gone 3-for-3 there.

But alas, with each new season, hope springs eternal that this perennial under-performer will suddenly figure things out. While many fans have hoped that person would be Bob Nutting (or Ben Cherington, depending on how you like to pass the buck here), the players on the field are the ones who ultimately will be the reason we win or lose.

I’ll have some more player previews in the coming weeks as this piece isn’t about any one player but really, a numbers game. The numbers game, honestly. A list of numbers which I feel are critical – for one reason or another – to this team’s success in the upcoming season.

We are now only a few days from the Pirates’ first Spring Training game. And with a 162-game schedule comes a few other numbers which might be important for the team this season as they hope to reach playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.

1

Technically, +1. As in, a positive run differential – or difference between runs scored and runs allowed. Last season, the team had a 14 game improvement to their record from 2022 but they still posted the 7th worst run differential in MLB. They were 2nd worst in 2022 (-226) – just behind the Washington Nationals – and in 2021 (-224) behind the Baltimore Orioles. In fact, Pittsburgh hasn’t posted a positive run differential since, unsurprisingly, 2015 when the Pirates had MLB’s 5th best mark with +97.

The run differential isn’t the “be-all, end-all” to determining whether a team will make the playoffs. The Chicago Cubs had a +96 last season and missed the playoffs while the National League Champion Arizona Diamondbacks were -9 and clearly were not encumbered by it. That said, you feel a lot better about your spot in the standings with a positive number there than a negative one, and the team should strive to be on the other side of it this season.

20

I was listening to Bridge to Buctober a few weeks ago and a comment from Josh Booth has been stuck in my head ever since: In all the years that they have existed, the Pirates have a single season with 4 players hitting 20+ home runs. It felt like the Braves entire lineup achieved this feat last season (only 7 out of 9, somehow) but the Pirates had just 2: Jack Suwinski (26) and Bryan Reynolds (24).

The franchise record for most home runs hit in a single season is 171, achieved in 1999, and it stands as the lowest single season home run total for ANY team in baseball. This was, obviously the year that four players (Brian Giles, Kevin Young, Al Martin and Ed Sprague) reached the 20+ plateau.

Yes, it was achieved during the height of the steroid era, and in a more hitter-friendly home park (Three Rivers compared to PNC Park) but it also feels like the pieces are in place to supplant this record in the near future. If Suwinski and Reynolds maintain – or potentially improve upon – their numbers from last season. Or maybe Oneil Cruz stays healthy and unleashes his potential, Henry Davis gets 400+ at-bats, Ke’Bryan Hayes continues his progression from late last season. Add in newcomers in Rowdy Tellez and Edward Olivares, you start to think maybe this team will have 4, 5, even 6 players vying to reach that 20 home run mark by year’s end.

87

We now have 3 wild card teams with no 1-game, win-or-go-home playoff spot to reach. Last season, the Diamondbacks squeaked into the playoffs with their 84-78 record and parlayed that into a trip to the World Series. The year before, the Phillies and their 87-75 mark ended in the World Series as well. Though they both ultimately fell short of their goals, it was proof once again that any team can get hot in the playoffs and all you need to do is get in.

I already mentioned the Pirates 14-game improvement from the previous season. If they can post another gain similar to that, somewhere in the 87-90 win mark would almost assuredly be enough to push them into October baseball again.

.984

That was the Pirates’ team fielding percentage. Yes, it’s not the most analytical way to assess a team’s defensive prowess but it’s one of the few team-based fielding metrics we can look at and judge against contemporaries. The Pirates ranked 21st in MLB and 12th in NL for Fielding Percentage in 2023. The top two teams? None other than the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks (.990).

Coincidence? Maybe. Keep in mind that the Pirates have switched out Gold Glove finalist, Carlos Santana, with Rowdy Tellez – who has a career -19 Outs Above Average – to man first base. Oneil Cruz may have offensive upside but there have long been concerns about his defense and losing a year of development last season could further curtail any progress he was making with the glove. The outfield is a mixed bag with Suwinski the only one projected as average after posting a single run in OAA category.

There is still some reason for hope. Hayes does a LOT of heavy-lifting on the infield, leading to his well-deserved Gold Glove this past off-season. Additionally, potential super-utility man, Jared Triolo, isn’t too far behind Ke as far as defensive proclivity is concerned and is likely going to bounce around the infield as needed.

Liover Peguero might not be the most skillful 2nd baseman but he is young, still learning and (if he secures the job) would be an improvement over Ji-hwan Bae (465.1) and Rodolfo Castro (207.2), who combined for 10 errors over just 673 innings. Peguero only played 208.2 innings at 2B but committed zero errors in that span.

There’s no guarantee the team will universally improve defensively but it’s something that you hope they make incremental growth as they look to open that playoff window.

5

Ok, this isn’t a number to achieve but more a number with a question. Most teams have a 5-man rotation to start the season. Some teams have a 5-man team to end the season too. The Pirates, notably, were not one of those teams as the 2023 season ended with just Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo as consistent members of the staff. And the offseason wasn’t too far along before news that Oviedo would need Tommy John Surgery was announced and then there was one.

The team – to whatever extent you believe or don’t believe it – has worked to address this glaring issue. They traded for Marco Gonzales and signed Martin Perez but it is clearly murky after that. With the bullpen as it stands currently, handing a lead over after 5 innings gives you a pretty good shot at keeping that lead but you need arms to get through those first few innings and there is no guarantee yet that the team is ready for this venture. Who makes up the 5 spots and pitches those 5 innings every 5th day is still to be determined.

22

Cutch is entering year 2 of his second (and final) stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has said he wants to play at least two more seasons and, while he likely spends most of his time as a designated hitter, he provides value to this team both on and off the field. For his career, he is one home run shy of 300, one triple short of 50 and 27 runs away from 1,200. While his career has been littered with highs and lows, his time playing baseball is winding down and he wants nothing more than to bring playoff baseball back to Pittsburgh.

For all the concerns about Cutch being a bat-only player, fans might prefer it that way. Per FanGraphs, Cutch has been a below-average defender for the past few years. His -36 Outs Above Average since 2016 (when tracking for the stat began) are the 20th worst in baseball over that stretch. Again, the value he brings with his bat – a wOBA of .345 last season with a 115 wRC+ and .378 on-base percentage (14th best in MLB) – as well as his veteran experience and passion for Pittsburgh make him a model teammate for pushing this team over the finish line and into meaningful games late in the season.

3/28

That number is the first day of the 162-game season and I can’t wait to see what happens.

Let’s Go Bucs!