Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Only One More Before Pitchers and Catchers Report

2-5-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s getting real now. The folks who’ve spent all off season telling everyone to calm down because there was so friggin’ much time left, well, let’s just say in my Q&A this week, they were now the ones asking… Are they going to get another pitcher or not? Times just about up, and much like a sculpture, there comes a point where regardless of some rough edges being smoothed, its hard to hide what the final statue is going to be.

Let’s do this….

1. Pitchers and Catchers…

Spring training doesn’t start the second pitchers and catchers arrive at camp. In fact, while the 14th is when pitchers and catchers officially are to report to Bradenton, many of them have already been there for weeks. Heck I have a picture of Henry and Paul Skenes there almost a month ago.

Regardless, these two areas are the two positions that are most unclear. We don’t know what Henry will be yet, and on the other hand, we think we know what Ali Sanchez and Jason Delay are. The pitching staff is in flux. I’m already on record saying early in Spring, the Pirates big armed youngsters who likely aren’t ready for MLB are going to make some feel the team is more prepared on the mound than they thought before they started seeing them throw.

There are some real flame throwers, and spin doctors in that group, each capable of looking incredibly impressive in a short sample size.

Everyone they toss back there to catch them is going to look capable as well.

The truth is, they really should bring in more, and maybe in both spots. The 14th isn’t a date that means they can’t add after it arrives, but you also don’t want to start guys behind everyone else, so here’s hoping they address it sooner than later. The sooner these guys can look around the room and stop wondering who might walk in, the sooner they’ll embrace they alone have the season on their shoulders and can start planning the best way to lift this weight.

2. No Offers for Belli?

It was reported last week that Cody Bellinger had not received a formal offer from anyone. He’s easily the top position player left on the board, and arguably has been all off season, but Cody reportedly wants 300 million plus over 10 years.

He’s part of the continuing trend Scott Boras clients have employed. Sign a contract with opt outs. Perform well, and opt out to cash in at the level you think you’re worth.

There’s a reason some of these guys have had to take this approach. Carlos Correa for instance had a medical concern with his leg and it held up his mega deal. He proved he could play, and the medical concern wasn’t dire, but he also got a year older, and that medical concern was still not going to get signed off on by every team doctor, especially when a GM is saying, “you sure he’s got 8 years in him?”.

Bellinger stunk out loud for two seasons, bounced back in a major way in 2023, but is that enough to trust him with a 10 year commitment? Something tells me no. Further, it makes me feel he’ll again take an option laden contract for less this year and see if the market believes he’s back next off season.

This Boras method in my mind probably prevents getting offers on his original ask. Teams don’t want to touch that number, and when you deal with Boras, you don’t bother unless you’re going to touch it, because your offer of less will absolutely wind up in the media. Soon, he’ll put out the word on what he needs for year one of a deal. It’ll have an opt out after 2024 and it’ll be the player’s choice.

I could see him going back to Chicago, but if he isn’t going to get ALL he could, he might cherry pick looking for a perfect situation where he’ll get to play exactly where he wants to. He’s not alone.

Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still sitting there. Snell is a 2 time Cy Young winner and those two seasons were insane, it’s all the rest that has teams thinking twice on what he’s looking for. Montgomery simply wants to play for a team that isn’t sure they can afford, or at least want to pay for him.

As much as the national media tries to push these players out there. As much as they dream up landing spots for them in all the media market hot spots. The reality stands, there aren’t as many teams willing or capable of giving out these big deals as there are players who think they deserve them.

Interested to see how these three wash out. And yes, I’d be fine with the Pirates playing the role of the Twins here, but this GM doesn’t like options for even good bets for far less money.

3. System Rankings – My Takeaway

I’ve been consistent on this from the time I started doing this. When the Pirates were in the top 5 by some outlets, I noted it as a nice thing, but it didn’t matter much. When they get rated 15th by some, I noted it as lower than I’d think it should be, but it didn’t matter.

I still don’t think it matters much, and it’s incredibly arbitrary.

For instance, ESPN ranks farm systems by calculating the surplus value of every player in the system, then they put it all together into some lump sum of cash the “system” is worth and rank accordingly.

Baseball America or Prospectus, they base theirs on scouting primarily, many of the same scouts who just helped them spend 7 months writing up profiles on players for the draft. So guess which players are freshest in their minds? Think they might get a bump over some guys who’ve done nothing wrong but move up a level in the system from the year before?

Like does Paul Skenes deserve to be a top 100 Prospect? THE top pitcher? Probably, he’s that kind of talent, and they weren’t high on pitchers all together. Even so, he’s jumped over what, 97 other guys? Point is, this stuff is arbitrary largely. Fun to talk about, but really doesn’t matter all that much.

Here’s what I take from all those lists. Nationally, pitching isn’t well represented in the top 20-25, and yet the Pirates top 10 prospects rated by the very same outlets have anywhere from 6 to 8 of their top ten as hurlers. 4 or 5 of which are likely MLB ready in 2024.

This still doesn’t mean they will succeed, or they were ranked correctly or incorrectly, but knowing the value of pitching on the market this year, I’d sure as hell prefer having more of them in my top prospects lists.

I think there’s a solid chance we finish 2024 with 4 spots of the starting rotation filled to the degree we fans are confident heading into 2025, and I think that will come true without depleting this list to the point it’s no longer a strength next year.

I see a world where Keller, Brubaker, Skenes and one more like Ortiz, Priester, Jones, Burrows, Roansy, backed by a returning Oviedo and all the other names we’re waiting to push like Solometo, Ashcraft, Sullivan, Harrington, Chandler as we enter 2025.

Yeah, next year, I think we’re having much different conversations. This one will tell the story of how they get there, and how ready they look to carry weight when they do.

4. Why Are So Many Vets Getting Little Interest?

I received a great question for my Q&A this weekend from Jim Maruca my Facebook buddy. You’re welcome to go read it, it’s question 17, it set me on this thought though, because even though I answered it, I couldn’t stop thinking about it.

The more I think about it, the more I can’t help but blame COVID and specifically MLB’s handling of the clock on organizational operation. Players were frozen in time all over MiLB, but their clocks weren’t. They still gained a year toward Rule 5 decisions. They still got one year closer to being an MiLB free agent. Some guys who were added right before the COVID season were suddenly now on the 40 man for their 3rd straight year and hadn’t made MLB yet.

This devalued prospects, but teams largely had their hands tied as well. You don’t just want to jettison talent, so maybe you decide to hold onto that 25 year old who has like 65 at bats but still room before reaching their ceiling rather than sign that 34 year old who at best will be replacement level and cost twice as much.

I keep thinking oh we can finally just put that 2020 season behind us, but the ramifications of how it was handled are still with us.

I don’t even “blame” MLB, I mean it’s not like the players union would have had the foresight to see this coming for middling veterans 4 years ago. Certainly not enough to accept stripping MiLB players of at the time the only real mechanism they have to make sure a team can’t just snuff out your career all on their own.

Skipping 2020 all together wouldn’t have changed a thing here in my mind. No matter what, a year was lost, guys were still older than a level typically sees. Guys were already expected to be where they should have been had it never happened. Just yesterday I wrote that Quinn Priester threw all of 9 games as a professional before he missed an entire year. If you give him his year back, he’s much more on track than he seems.

You don’t always have to have an answer for how something could have been done better in order to look back and quantify the effects of how you did handle it. This probably applies to the entire situation globally and nationally as opposed to just baseball, but I now believe we’ll be finding and thinking of new things this event messed up at the end of the decade.

5. No Offense, but I Want Offense…

I know the starting rotation is the most important thing this team is lacking, but one thing I really hope we will see in 2024 is a team that is a threat to score runs every inning. The lineup looks like it will have pop and if they even stay modestly healthy, I think they’ll score some runs.

Thing I can’t shake is, I see the talent, and the body types. I see the experience in certain places and the potential in others. I also still see Andy Haines.

Here’s the thing, you can question anyone on the roster, I’m certainly not saying this is the ’27 Yankees, but it’s not the pathetic Pirates of 2021 either. They have talent, and if that talent is not producing, and it again looks like it has something to do with preferring a bases loaded walk to a swing for a gap shot, well, I’m already over it.

Individual struggle is not the same as institutional restriction.

A guy not seeing the ball well, is not the same as every hitter taking borderline calls with a bat on their shoulder.

Happily accepting a walk with a runner on third and one out instead of seeking contact on a borderline pitch and an RBI.

Blinding prospects with emphasis on fixing one aspect of their approach, even as it hurts 2 others.

Let’s just get out of the way and let hitters hit.

If they come out and look like they’re interested in driving runs in more than forcing them in by boring the crowd with stubborn patience, and they hit this year, I don’t care who gets credit. I don’t need to be right nearly as much as I need to see guys look dangerous at the plate again. I want to feel a 3 spot in the top of the first doesn’t mean I have to hope they scratch a run across 3 or 4 times in the next 6 or 7 innings.

I want what the legacy of this franchise used to be, the Lumber Company.

Maybe a lot to ask this year, but I at least want signs of it. I want every team in the league to not look forward to facing the Pirates lineup.

Compete for the Division in 2024? Maybe, but I Don’t Think I’ll be Predicting it.

2-4-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

We all know the team claims they’ll get more pitching. I’m not even calling them liars, or assuming they’ll fail to get one, but I started thinking, even if they do, could I really believe they’d compete for a division?

I guess, I’ve been waiting for them to complete the picture before thinking ahead. You know, kinda want to see what they feel is division winner worthy before I decide to agree or disagree.

But, then I thought a little longer, I even threw in a crazy thought. This team could sign Blake Snell and I still might not get there.

Doesn’t mean they can’t do it, just means I have a hard time looking at all the what if and choosing to make 75% of them positive outcomes. That sort of stuff happens all the time, like for instance, Arizona knew they had a really good looking young ball player in Corbin Carroll but putting together a 25 homerun, 5.4 WAR rookie season had to be on the extreme high end of the typical Danger Noodle fan I’d expect.

See, I can reasonably expect Bryan Reynolds to hit .270, launch 25 homeruns, 25-30 doubles, I mean, we’ve seen him do it, more than once. Sure, he could fall off a cliff for a season too, the baseball Gods step in every once in a while and deliver a misnomer, but for the most part, when a guy shows he’s a regular performer, he tends to stay within a pretty tight range.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will play incredible defense, but this would mark his first completely healthy year if he has one. As usual, we’re looking at a relatively small portion of his offensive output that really looked incredible and knowing it’s in there has given some of us hope he could achieve it on a more regular basis. I’ll take whatever he gives with that glove, but can I count on it?

Oneil Cruz is a mystery. Can he hold down SS? Can he handle lefties and cut down on the K’s, maybe even pick up some more walks. Will he be tentative on the bases now? I think there’s enough talent there to provide quite a bit offensively, but that’s as far as I can go, I think.

Can Henry catch? Can he hit? Sure hope so, sure has the MO of someone who’s bat will come to play, but I don’t know how anyone could say they know.

Now, this probably reads as pretty negative, I know, it probably is.

To me you have to see both sides of what ifs and its part of why when you put a team together with a goal like winning a division, you tend to not want to go into the effort with a team half full of them.

Its why getting a starter, even a 4th or 5th level starter is important. Even if you think Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez aren’t good enough, they have baselines. They both have what ifs, but if health isn’t one, they’re going to deliver within a pretty tight range something expected.

Think about the Cardinals for a minute. Puke if you have to, but come back to it when you’re able.

The Cardinals were putrid last year. They signed 2 old starters with recent poor histories and a long track record of being serviceable plus Sonny Gray.

Aside from that, they’re expecting big rebounds from Paul Goldschmidt , Contreras and Nolan Arenado. A big step from Jordan Walker and other young players too.

It’s hard to predict them to wind up bottom feeders of the division again, at least for me. There’s too much track record, and fewer what ifs for me to believe everything that could go bad will again.

I guess what I’m getting at is, I don’t think they could make a move or series of moves that would take me all the way to where they claim to aim.

I’ve been waiting for something that isn’t coming. Security in my hopes and aspirations for this team. There’s just too much youth, too many what ifs to have that kind of sleep well at night feeling about where this team goes.

Doesn’t mean I have no hope, or am sitting here assuming the basement either. I’m just saying there’s no way to avoid needing to play youngsters, if this thing is to succeed in the long run, it’s going to come from kids becoming the veterans. Just like Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are now. Just like Jack Suwinski has a chance to become this year.

To pull this off, they need players like Luis Ortiz to have a chance to play and succeed as an MLB pitcher. And if he fails they need a Quinn Priester to get his shot. Henry Davis needs to learn, and I honestly have no other even conceptual way to justify locking his bat in AAA where he’ll learn nothing, just to help him learn to catch. It would literally bump his development back a year, and he has MLB lessons to learn at the plate.

I can make that observation about what these kids need to do, and acknowledge the team would have a better shot at the division if they didn’t deal with them.

This year, I’ll still make a prediction as Spring wraps, but I don’t see this team moving the needle much before then. It’ll be based on a lot of mental coin flips, because honestly, that’s what on boarding kids is.

Cincinnati will deal with it too this year. They have even more youth, and a whole bunch of it just debuted last year. What they did last year, well, it was nothing short of impressive, especially for all those rookies. They brought in a few vets wisely, but make no mistake, they have a ton of what ifs. You can’t have that many kids and know which side of the wall the baseball gods will push them.

If 75% of them trend upward, they’ll look like Baltimore in a year or two. If they go the opposite direction, you’ll probably see them try to bolt on patches to prop up what they have gotten to take that next all too hard to pull off step.

On paper, I probably like where Cincy is better. But most of their system is already here. In other words, they really have this year and maybe next to see where those kids will take them.

This division doesn’t have a front runner as we speak, but I’d put my mythological money on the more veteran teams, but every once in a while, the talent ceiling wins out over the veteran baseline.

Could that be the Pirates? Sure. I just don’t see myself predicting it before the season starts regardless of what else they have in store for us in the acquisition department.

Steel City Pirates – Can This Off Season be Over Yet?

2-3-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I love doing these things, but next time I put out an open request for questions, I think I’ll probably filter out Trevor Bauer and the exact phrase “so which pitcher are they signing?”. I mean, everything is fair game, but how many times can you answer the same thing too ya know?

Ok, weeding through, and a much longer time with bait in the water than normal, here we go!

Question 1

Is it correct that Shelton and his staff only under contract through 2024? If so can you foresee a terrible first half causing him to be fired ? – WV Ken

Is it correct? I truly mean this, if anyone knows it, they aren’t reporting it, and knowing a lot of reporters I find that hard to believe.

Here’s what I do know though. When Bob Nutting is ready to fire someone, having a contract that he’ll have to pay out hasn’t stopped him. I know Shelton was just extended through “at least” 2024. I find it unlikely he’d have signed an extension for one season, lame duck and coaching don’t often go well together, which is also part of why you don’t hear about their contracts often. That’s kinda why this Craig Counsel to Chicago thing riled people up, coaching salaries are very similar in every market, and the Cubs just potentially started an arms race teams have never wanted.

Finally, I know this team doesn’t like to fire mid season, if they do, it’s typically a guy getting told he’s not coming back, he doesn’t take it well, team moves on for a few final weeks to finish a season.

I get what you’re asking, I think I get why you’re asking it, but you won’t see more than guesses, educated as they may be as to how long his contract is unless he or the GM decide to tell someone.

Question 2

I keep looking at the still available hitters and wanting them to add Adam Duvall. If that happened who would play center field? – Robert Hagelin Jr.

Well, who knows what they’d do, but I’d keep Jack as the primary CF and I’d straight work Adam in 3-5 games a week either spelling Jack or platooning in RF. He can even take some DH duty here and there. He’s a clearly inferior hitter to Soler, but his ability to actually play some defense makes him interesting at least.

Personally, I think this team needs to help themselves up the middle, and I’d do that by getting a true CF who can hit a little, but everyone is sick of my 3 year sales pitch on Michael Taylor.

Question 3

Who would win in a fight, an Oneil Cruz sized meerkat, or 1000 meerkat sized Oneil Cruzes? – JG

Has to be the one giant Meerkat. All 1,000 would cripple themselves sliding off him.

Question 4

Curious from the Pirates’ perspective why they chose Tellez over Santana when the difference ended up being only $2M. Thoughts? – Nick Cammuso

Well if a Rowdy sized Meerkat..

Ok, I’ll get serious agian.

For one thing, and I know this is going to go over like a lead balloon, the Pirates are quite high on Tellez. And for what it’s worth, Tellez is kinda high on the team.

Before I go any farther, let me be extremely clear, my preference this offseason would have been to try to acquire a more permanent answer at first base, so please don’t mistake explaining/relaying things I’ve heard as being happy it’s gone in this direction.

That said, clear your mind. Think about Carlos Santana’s reputation upon signing last season with the Pirates. In fact, here is exactly what I wrote last November when they signed him…

Here’s what he does do though, he gets on base and he hits homeruns and gives the Pirates another right handed power option, something they are absolutely devoid of.

Choi provides a superior glove for sure, and he’s much less inclined to hit homeruns, but both together could make for a formidable position.

I, and many others thought he would be little more than an expensive DH and right handed platoon for 1B. That’s not at all what he delivered, and my god, what he did with the glove, he’s never done that in his entire career, not like that.

Is it really so crazy for them to think they can take the younger Tellez, coach him up a bit at first and hope they get 20+ dingers from him with Conner Joe and Triolo as support?

I mean, feet to the fire, I probably take Santana, but it’s not some wide canyon between one or the other in my mind. Especially if you buy injury was his biggest problem last year.

I also spent much of last year marveling at how Santana was literally giving his body to the game in 2023. That dude sacrificed, and fought through and never gave less than 100%, I guess what I’m saying here is, how likely is it his age 38 season following that is going to look even 75% what he did?

That’s as fair an argument as I can put out there.

Question 5

Are they really going into the season hoping Quinn/Roansy/Ortiz/Falter or one of the NRI’s are the other 2 starters along with Mitch, Marco and Perez? – SadPiratesFan

With the rapid approach of the start of spring training, how afraid are you that this is the roster we start the season with? – James Littleton

I felt these two were in a similar spirit. Personally fellas, I’m not worried at all. I won’t be the one who has to come to fans hat in hand and either say they failed to get what they wanted, or they changed their mind and either this was now enough to achieve their goals or worse they’ve changed the goal that they stuck with all off season.

If they do nothing else, Those are the three possibilities. They either sell you that they reevaluated and decided that other starter was right here all along, boy howdy, how did we miss it? It’d be like Tomlin explaining how he missed Mason could throw a football and not shit his pants.

I think you’ll see one more MLB starter added, somehow, someway, and I think they’ll add 3-4 more NRI pitchers.

Question 6

Gary, are you going to Bradenton? If so, when? inquiring minds want to know, I’ll be there March 6th thru 12th to see the Bucs vs Orioles, Twins, Phillies and Braves. Would like to say hey if you’re around. – Keith

Yup, I’ll be there March 12th through the 15th. I have no idea of what I’m doing yet, it’s my Wife’s first time so I want to make sure she wants to do it again if you catch my drift.

Certainly Thursday will be all baseball, double header day with the young farm all stars facing each other in the night cap.

All that said, I’ll be at some bar the 12th, drinking something fruity and boozy.

Question 7

Any truth to the Sanchez rumors? Are we close to adding another starter? Thanks! – Mr. Walsh

Yes. Robert Murray, a very reputable reporter, mentioned that the Pirates were one team interested in Gary Sanchez.

So, is it true that the Pirates are interested? Not that I’ve heard. I’d invite you to look at a Five thoughts I wrote a couple weeks back. This stuff comes from an agent trying to build a market for his player. The agent calls Robert, says hey, these teams called me about Gary. Robert goes, ok, I’m bored, hey world, these teams are interested in Gary Sanchez.

Nobody from the team is quoted. Nobody from the team will comment. Nobody from the other teams will comment.

So is it true? Yes, Robert Murray did not make up those teams, he was directly told they were interested. Ben Cherington could quite literally have stood next to Gary’s agent at the urinal during the Winter meetings and for some reason they talked about the future of another man while urinating. Nobody will ever know.

I’d ask, how many rumors did you hear that they were interested in Chapman before they signed him?

Question 8

What team have we received the most talent from in recent memory? Either via trade, grabbing their free agents what have you. The Yankees seem to always give us gold i.e. Burnett, Martin, Cervelli, maybe even Roansy can be added to this list – Patrick Bradford-Kenney

This is an interesting subject, probably one that deserves a much deeper look than I can give in this format, but noted Sir, noted.

That said, I think the most recent answer almost has to be San Diego. Jack Suwinski and David Bednar, and while he’s no longer here they got some nice work from Tucupita Marcano before he got hurt. I suppose we can’t give them credit for giving us Endy, although they were part of the 3 team deal including the Mets, and gave the Mets players for him to trade to us, so technicality I suppose.

Either way, that’s an All Star, a young power hitter, a decent fill in middle infielder who will find his way to a bench role in this league somewhere, and whatever Endy becomes.

Then we could add Jackson Wolf, who hey, he’s on the 40-man, yeah brother, it’s gotta be San Diego for sure.

Question 9

Any scuttlebutt on Ro or Ortiz? There’s been no news all off-season on either of them that I have heard. Is it possible that the #Pirates know more than has been made public and are moderately confident that one or both of them will step up and be productive SPs? – Curmudgley

I’ve heard absolutely nothing about Roansy. And the thing is, you’d have to imagine they’d be dying to tell us something good. I shouldn’t say I’ve heard nothing, I just haven’t heard anything verifiable. I have a couple people who could have just as easily been trying to diagnose his issues last year as have anything to do with helping him or evaluating him. So, nada.

Ortiz, I have heard. He was sent to the AFL to finish getting where they wanted him to get on innings, not to work on anything in particular. I’ve also heard he’s taking this offseason more seriously. I truly believer Ortiz let himself down last year on conditioning, and I expect he’ll remedy that.

Both players were mentioned in a positive light at Pirates Fest, so I have to imagine they feel both are at least heading in the direction they pointed. So hard with kids who don’t live stateside year round.

I half expected Jason Mackey to run into one of them or score an interview when he was at the DR Academy a couple weeks back.

Question 10

Does BC feel there is enough of a glut to make a trade or does he covet what he has enough to pry 1 more FA out of Nutting this off-season with hopes of next year being the year all the talent takes to PNC for this run we are all hopeful for – J.W. Sanders

I truly believe he can do either thing he wants to do. You don’t say things like Bob Nutting just did in the Dominican and then turn around and tie your GM’s hands. That said, I know for a fact the blueprint to “this thing working” begins and ends with 75% of their pitching being internally developed. And I mean to tell you, they’re thinking all the way to Skenes 6 years down the road, knowing they need Barco or Harrington, someone like that to pan out in that time frame.

So yes, there is more prospect hugging with a GM trying to oversee something like this. As I understand their intentions though, I believe he’s got close to 15 million without threatening their self imposed budget which once again, Bob might have just upped by opening his yap.

I also know I’ve watched this team “develop” pitching long enough to think they might just need 8 for every 1 success.

Question 11

Why is Alika Williams still on the team? – John Negich

“On this team”, meaning on the 40-man roster. The team will always have a list of who they could let go, and I’m quite sure he’s on it. I’m also sure, Alika has something most prospects don’t in this system, he’s proven he can do something at the MLB level that nobody else has, including those who will absolutely start. He can field the short stop position, and do it to a gold glove level.

it’s not a luxury a team like this can afford to carry and eventually it likely will cost him his roster spot, but they liked what he did with the stick enough in AAA last year that they feel he’s more valuable than Canaan Smith-Njigba. That’s the only decision that’s been made.

I don’t think he’d go unclaimed if they did DFA him either, but that’s going to be the story for the next few years at least, the 40-man is going to be almost 40 deep with guys you can’t just cut loose minus the thought.

The best thing I can say is, he isn’t hurting you sitting on a roster that doesn’t mean you’re in the Bigs, and having a skill nobody else has is sometimes reason enough to think twice.

He doesn’t ever have to be a player you like. But if he’s your perceived 40th player out of 40, you’re probably not all that bad.

Question 12

Do we need 1, 2 or 3 pitcher signings before opening day? – Douglas Smith

I’ll take this as a personal preference question. For me it’s 1 MLB pitcher. Now, I’d bring in 2-3 more NRI types too, because I think they’ll need more veteran depth sitting in AAA, but I think it’s critical to this effort to leave that 5th spot open for someone internal, even if it winds up being a revolving door of trying guys out.

Can’t kick that can forever, at some point you have to go through the pain of on boarding kids, it’s not their fault the bats showed up first. Ideally they’d have both arrived in 2023, instead, they’re staggered, and for this to succeed, they can’t miss on all of them by loading the entire roster up and avoiding the growing pains in an effort to win 5 more games.

That’s my take, but I’m not the one who went out and sold “competing for the division” they did.

Question 13

Is the Baltimore new ownership model helpful to small market teams in general? And why? – Douglas Smith again, hey, my man brought two good ones.

Too early to tell. They could just greenlight some stuff that previous ownership would have poopooed because they’ve seen the darkness and are terrified to go back. They could act like Cohen and be fans playing with a new toy only to learn MLB’s harsh lesson. Most likely outcome is they still want to be profitable, they will get to see the books, and if we see change at all, it’ll be short lived.

My guess though, no matter what they do here for a few years, Baltimore is a powerhouse that built something they’d have to try to screw up. that’s a good half decade window if they get even one or two pitchers to come through.

What I’m saying is, this new owner is a genius from the minute he/she walks in and the first time they can’t keep someone, uncaring idiots who are part of the problem.

That said, they won’t have felt an ounce of pain before 2027, and I have to assume those negotiations for the CBA will be a bit contentious.

Question 14

With 4/5 MLB top 100 players being pitchers, would it be best to find an AJ type or trade for a more controllable type pitcher. They need someone up top in the 1-2 spot with Mitch. I’d like Shane Bieber. – Ryan Coulson

I’m not seeing how the two are related. Having 4/5 MLB top 100 pitchers doesn’t mean a lick. The highest ranked member being Skenes has thrown all of what 9 pro innings? What they do this year has nothing to do with that list or any of them quite honestly.

Also, it would always be nice to have an AJ type. I hear this fifteen times a week. Penguins fans do it too, exclaiming the Power Play needs a Patric Hörnqvist type to play in front of the net.

Thing is, there’s a reason we remember those “types” and it’s because they aren’t just laying around.

Part of what made AJ a type, was because he was traded here and they had control of him for more than one year. Bieber isn’t that. He’s also not the same pitcher he was, and yes, yes, I know that’s what AJ was too, but in reality, AJ was a guy who never fit what the Yankees wanted him to be. He bucked, they ate his crap, he bucked some more, and neither got what they wanted out of the other. When he came here, he was THE dude, and they were very fortunate he was.

A guy like this they could go get might be Joe Musgrove. He’s got a few years left on his deal in San Diego. They need to shed more salary, he’d be an answer for a while, a leader even and liked it here when he was here. His no trade clause, and San Diego being home probably make this impossible, but that’d be my swing at “An AJ type”. And yes, it would cost, quite a bit.

Question 15

Do you think now since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes away their is no real frontrunner favorite to win the NL Central that they’ll obviously favor St. Louis because historically they’ve always been good, making the Central up for grabs? – Neal Kokiko

Well, I didn’t see them as a front runner, so, I guess not. You very much so like predictions it seems my friend, and as always, I just don’t do that sort of thing until Spring is close to wrapped.

Instead I’ll do a where I see them right this second ranking.

Cardinals – They didn’t add a bunch of quality outside of Gray, but they did fortify a true weakness and everything that went bad won’t go that bad again.

Reds – The hope they don’t finish near the top is that all their kids either don’t take a step or suffer sophomore slumps. That could happen, but on paper, I like their team.

Cubs – I don’t think they’re a complete team, but their starting rotation is right now better than the Pirates on paper. Lineup as we stand is meh.

Pirates – I think they might be the best offensive unit in the division when everything shakes out, but as we sit here, the mound is downright scary.

Brewers – They still have a bunch of players and some more coming quick, but their rotation isn’t what it’s been. Teams don’t just lose 1 and 2 and pick up where they left off. And they didn’t exactly leave off flying high.

Question 16

As we all know the 162 game schedule is a marathon. Is this young team ready for it. Can it withstand the ups and downs? – Butch Holt

Oh I think the only thing I can truly say Derek Shelton has done successfully that I can directly measure and point to him, it’s keeping guys playing hard and staying mentally strong through the tape. It is too long, and it will wear down every team, but the position players, in my mind are ready. Henry might struggle if he’s asked to catch say 120 games, he’s never done that in his career. Cruz may need more rest than others. Everyone else, I kinda like where they are in their careers to expect they can last.

I also think we’re going to see different faces swapped in and out and that freshens up the mix along the way.

Question 17

Do you think it’s possible that many mid level FAs have gotten so expensive that given they’re too similar in potential production to many teams’ existing players and prospects that it’s not worth the risk. Thus being the reason for a slow offseason for many clubs almost creating the appearance of soft collusion between GMs. – JIm Murica

I don’t think it’s some big conspiracy, but yes, I do think there’s a strange bubble that the COVID season created. Lots of guys who probably did nothing wrong but lose a season of their career, but MLB kept the clock rolling like they did. So there are more players along those lines who probably got protected a bit early.

Kinda like the Pirates with Peguero, he was protected long before he was ready, Cheng just this year, he’s in AA. Jack Suwinski was too.

It has created at least a little wave of teams believing they at least need to see more from some guys and I could see that preventing some typical veteran bench roles not going to Free agents.

For instance, if you wanted a veteran SS as insurance for Cruz, well, you aren’t insuring his bat, just his glove. Why wouldn’t you just hold onto Williams instead? So I think there’s logic to your observation, I’m just not sure if anyone has a 100% explanation.

One more thing, the universal DH has hurt the role player too. Everyone has a prospect they’d rather get at bats than have a 34 year old ride the pine for 5 million.

Everyone’s Story is Different, but Quinn Priester and Mitch Keller Sure Stack Up Side by Side

2-2-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Happy Groundhog’s Day everyone, in honor of the day I thought it would be as good a time as any to really dig in on an issue at the very least fans sure as hell feel is recurring year after year in Pittsburgh.

Why can’t this team just develop some pitching?

Then the team that famously can’t develop pitching goes ahead and drafts a stud starter with the first pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and almost as immediately came the assumption that they’d find a way to screw him up. Paul Skenes having not seen his national rankings fall just by being associated with the Pirates for over six months was almost a shock to be honest.

Quinn Priester a huge bust, lost his fastball! Luis Ortiz was great and then they “taught” him, now he stinks. Roansy was elite, now he looks on the verge of tears on the mound.

Fans are quick to declare careers over long before they are, especially at a position that requires the kind of patience pitching does. Today, I just want to recount the story of Mitch Keller’s rise to where he is, and as Quinn Priester’s story starts to creep in and overlap, well, I haven’t written it yet, let’s see where it goes.

2018

I don’t have to go back all that far to show you what a whole lot of you, myself included, had to say about Mitch Keller. Experts said the same, lots of them. If you believed in him at all, you probably clung to the stuff being good, and deflected to some mental hang up or even lacking courage to a degree.

Truth be told, Mitch took a solid year longer than a player is typically going to get, arguably longer. The better the team the prospect is trying to crack, the shorter that leash is going to be. Mitch walked in to a desert. Meaning, there was Mitch, Nick Kingham and an oft injured JT Brubaker when you talk about prospects even conceivable of helping back in 2018. That said, nobody was crying for Mitch to get here, he was the top pitching prospect in baseball and this team wasn’t in a position to have to force him to MLB, believe it or not.

I don’t need to tell you how deep the team thought they were here, they made a rather large trade right here to acquire a starter and toss two back in return. It’s a whole thing, maybe you heard of it.

2019

The Rotation had some promise, at least guys who had some success. Jameson Taillon started that season at least and was coming off his best season as a Pirate shoving 191 innings and looking like the Ace who had battled back from UCL and Testicular Cancer to finally claim his perch, unfortunately he only lasted into August before being shut down for the season and underwent UCL again.

Joe Musgrove was promising, but young and inconsistent. Trevor Williams had himself a 2018, and we spent most of 2019 hoping to see it again. Jordan Lyles was Jordan Lyles. Steven Brault held down the only lefty spot admirably. Chris Archer earned his eventual no vote on picking up his option. Dario Agrazal started 14 times for the club.

Point being, they were learning quickly, what looked promising, had quickly become Joe Musgrove and uh oh.

Mitch Keller laid down some pretty awful numbers in 2019 for the Pirates, but he became desperately needed given everything else I outlined up there. A 7.13 ERA in 11 starts only going 48 innings. Finished stronger than he started though, and did have an impressive 65 strike outs vs 16 walks.

Kingham on the other hand, only 4 starts, a 9.87 ERA and his K’s to BB’s looked more like 32/17.

Remember trying to convince yourself there might be something there with Parker Markel? LOL, I do.

Keller earned another shot out of desperation, and bluntly, being the most highly touted out of the group. His stuff gave him enough thunder in the K department to think it reasonable to keep molding that clay. Plus, here was a team that suddenly needed pitching like crazy after entering that very year thinking they might just have enough to keep the train rolling.

Almost as an homage to how this season went on the mound the Pirates selected Quinn Priester out of Cary-Grove High school in Cary Illinois. A high schooler with a big arm, seen as a raw talent with a penchant for self teaching, his frame sold him more than his young repertoire. He’d throw in nine games for the Gulf Coast Pirates and the West Virginia Power RIP, only amassing 36.2 innings.

2020

2020 was a joke for MLB. It stunted prospects, it stunted the growth of players in MLB, and it stretched out the story that is Mitch Keller, even as it starts to tell the story of Quinn Priester.

Those 36.2 innings of minor league, welcome to the league lets see what you got kid innings would be his last professional innings pitched until 2021. Instead, Quinn was invited to the COVID created “training hub” in Altoona.

With no minor league baseball to watch prospect sites were hungry for good reports from some of these training hubs. Quinn was a rather surprise addition to the Pirates 60-man roster. That site was intended to be a pool of players who could come up rather quickly to replace players who might need to be quarantined.

This all sounds like a bad dream even as I sit here remembering it.

He had been working out on his own and showed the club he could hit 98 MPH on the gun, which hadn’t been in his wheelhouse. Of course, he flew up the prospect ranking boards, largely based on lack of news and some glowing reports. In fact, it’s almost as if it were more draft style ranking as opposed to post draft. Point is, he was the hotness.

Back to our hero Mitch for a moment.

The Pirates entered 2020 planning to use Mitch, help him build off of the very short success strip he laid down in 2019 but Left oblique discomfort would derail him for most of what was already a disgracefully short season. He’d only throw 21.2 innings in 5 starts with a 2.91 ERA. Weird for Mitch though, he walked 18 batters and only struck out 16. He’d been successful in outcome, but that simply wasn’t the Mitch they expected to see. Still, there are a lot of fans and sadly media members who see that 2.91 ERA and up go the expectations heading into 2021.

2021

The team officially entered rebuild territory here. Oh, it had been coming of course after the Starling Marte deal, but now we were about to begin to understand how far they’d go, who was safe, who were they considering worth keeping vs trading or just moving on from in general.

I won’t go into all of it, but Joe Musgrove was by far their best starter and they moved him, Jameson Taillon was coming back from UCL and they chose to not have Pittsburgh be where he’d see if it took this time.

The Rotation was decimated.

Mitch Keller was now no longer optional, he had to work.

Chad Kuhl was returning from UCL himself, JT Brubaker had survived attrition and started making it look like he deserved a look. Wil Crowe, newly acquired for Josh Bell was handed a spot, and veterans Trevor Cahill and Tyler Anderson were brought in as the duct tape to hold these toothpicks and playing cards together.

They lost a lot, they were intended to.

But one pitcher in the bunch was supposed to be showing everyone he was going to survive this rebuild as an answer, Keller.

There’s no way to be kind here, Keller was awful for the vast majority of 2021. While the team didn’t plan to compete, they certainly didn’t think Mitch would seemingly backslide so much. The K/BB improved a bit with 92/49 but he got taken to the woodshed on fatties all season. Eventually prompting the pitching starved Pirates to send him to AAA in an effort to help him get his mojo back, which made me think at the time, what mojo?

He embraced a 2 seamer and finished the season looking like a different pitcher. Not perfect, but again it was easy to see him as a guy you had to see more from in 2022, again looking at a fairly non-existent rotation.

Brubaker was arguably more promising in 2021 than Mitch Keller. Take that as you will.

Still the Pirates waited for a prospect to emerge. And I mean one that anyone expected to actually help, not a lucky overachieving AAA 29 year old.

Quinn was still at the top of everyone’s lips, but not particularly close to MLB. This frustrated a lot of folks who took those increased ratings and rankings as gospel and held him to them.

Priester spent his entire 2021 in Greensboro, a notoriously hitter friendly venue. Started 20 games throwing 97.2 innings. 98/39 K’s to BB’s and in general, the stuff played. The fastball was 95-96, had some life, but it hardly mattered, nobody could touch his breaking stuff. onward and upward right?

A Young Roansy Contreras makes a cameo start at the end of the season.

2022

Whirlwind of a season for Quinn, he’d pitch in 4 different levels if you count rehab assignments from Bradenton on through Indianapolis for a cup of coffee. A lot of movement, not a lot of progress though, in fact his innings count fell by 7 innings to 90.1 and the fastball was still not being asked for. Meaning, he was still doing quite well only showing it on occasion and at that had become rather comfortable with just 93-94 with the pitch. His breaking stuff is plenty good to still be a success in the minors like that, but to succeed at the big league level, you tend to need to be able to challenge with and place the fastball.

Not his fault, he simply hadn’t been forced to cut his mix down and learn to win with his heater. Bookmark this, because when we tell the story of 2023, you’ll need to have this in your back pocket.

Back to Mitch.

He entered with some expectation he’d take a step, but nobody was truly sure how it’d go. JT Brubaker was going to be given a shot to build on what he had done.

The Pirates brought in Jose Quintana, traded for Zach Thompson, and gave Bryse Wilson who they had acquired at the past deadline a shot to start.

Wil Crowe was already ruled out and relegated to the pen.

Mitch stepped up after a temporary move to the bullpen, he came back fully bought in on what was being preached, backed by some independent training he had worked with over the offseason, he’d found another gear in velocity. Now if anything, he needed to learn how to make all the nasty work together.

The pressure for guys like Quinn and Roansy was building, and while being severely restricted on innings the Pirates let Roansy start. He’d cement himself almost instantly as a member of the rotation and shined a bright light on how long it had taken Keller to reach what still looked a bit too shaky at times he had gotten to.

Luis Ortiz came up and made us think we had accidentally discovered gold and Johan Oviedo showed some promise.

2023

Still a shaky rotation. Mitch Keller would now be asked to lead it, even being asked to be the Opening Day hurler.

Rich Hill and Vince Velazquez were brought in as veteran help. Brubaker was going to be there, looking serviceable as ever. Hey, we got Roansy and Ortiz and this Oviedo kid, well he can start in AAA.

Then what happened?

Yeah, last year happened. Brubaker out, Vince out, Hill traded, Ortiz struggled, Roansy disappeared. Oviedo didn’t happen to last year, he’s the Brubaker story heading into 2024 instead.

Point is, the lessons the Pirates finally got around to trying to teach Quinn about the fastball, well, let’s just say they were moved to the MLB blackboard instead. After an above average 22 games in Indianapolis in which they had just started to work on some fine tuning, he was forced into action by attrition, lack of depth and if I may be so frank, the GM’s negligence in not acquiring some help at the deadline maybe even someone who would have already been here in 2024 as well, but I digress.

Quinn gave the Bucs 10 starts, threw 158 innings between the two levels, 50 in the Bigs. An ERA of 7.74 in 10 games.

Remember this from Mitch’s debut season from earlier?

Mitch Keller laid down some pretty awful numbers in 2019 for the Pirates, but he became desperately needed given everything else I outlined up there. A 7.13 ERA in 11 starts only going 48 innings. Finished stronger than he started though, and did have an impressive 65 strike outs vs 16 walks.

Eerily similar, right down the the very problem. Not being comfortable enough to rely on the fastball, and too many years of crushing the competition without it.

What Have We Learned?

These journeys are not the same, and they aren’t meant to predict Quinn Priester will become Mitch Keller. I can say, the majority of Mitch’s development into what he is today happened under this management team and while it wasn’t as fast as you typically need it to be, it did take.

I’d also say, it’s alarming looking back through this and seeing regardless of reason up to and including injury, Mitch Keller is the only pitcher you can point to and say, boom, we did that.

Quinn will enter this season with an opportunity. Maybe it’s not to go North out of camp, but it will likely be another chance to take a step in the Bigs. He’s adjusting his delivery, paring his pitches, shaping his breaking stuff and looking to be better this time.

Every guy does. These stories aren’t unique, but this also isn’t the same system Mitch Keller was trying to climb out of in 2019. This system is filled especially near the top with high end talent that will pressure Quinn Priester and the others I named for that matter, more than Mitch saw in his entire Pirates career.

For some guys, that pressure cracks them, for others, it makes a diamond. One thing is for sure, it’s better as a baseball franchise to have this scenario, even if it did provide a long enough runway for Keller to finally land the plane.

My advice, don’t make decisions about whether a young pitcher is good or not until the absolute second you have to. It’s just too hard to accumulate meaningful arms to start passing over everyone who struggles at the Big League level their first go around. It’s a tight rope walk as you enter a phase where you feel you have enough hitting to win, because patience is shorter when you have options and no room for error.

We’ll enter this year feeling like Priester, Roansy, and Ortiz are all longshots to do anything here, and we’ll do it based on remembering their failures, minimizing or forgetting their successes, dismissing all together their experience levels and all the while we’ll call Mitch Keller a can’t miss extension. Many of us completely ignorant as to the irony.

There’s only one real way to develop pitching and it’s a lot like eating your broccoli, plug your nose, cover it with cheese and hope cooking it a little longer will make it good.

Hey, Let’s Make a Deal! Are the Marlins & Pirates a Good Fit?

1-31-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The “glut” of middle infielders the Pirates have, has been seen almost universally as a position they could easily and even painlessly deal from in an effort to fill a hole elsewhere.

The most popular alignment tends to be a starting pitcher with control in exchange for at least in part one of that “glut”.

It makes sense, you can certainly see why almost everyone lands there when discussing this stuff, the problem comes when fans don’t consider every factor and miss the most important one of all, the intention and goals of the team on the other end.

When looking for a trade partner, you need a few things. First being a player that fills a need on your roster. Second, do you have a player or players you could part with, that doesn’t hurt your goal, at least this year.

Find those two things, and ok, maybe you have something there right?

Maybe. But what about the third factor? Do the players you can part with that don’t hurt your current team help your counterpart in the way they want helped?

Rumors fly this time of year, and the more desperate your fan base, the more rumors tend to come up.

An example that’s cropped up a ton this year is the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates coming together on a deal. They have a bunch of pitching at the MLB level or ready to be, much of it has a ton of control.

To make this deal work, you start as we discussed by examining their roster and identifying do they have a player available, or more accurately, potentially available that would help you achieve the goal of fortifying the Pirates Starting Rotation, preferably with someone who slots in somewhere right below if not shoulder to shoulder with Keller.

Check.

The Marlins are reportedly in need of middle infield help, specifically short stop. They’ve also been interested in outfield help. So is this a fit on the surface with the Pirates having all those middle infielders?

Yup, Check.

Now for that pesky third part, does it help the counterpart? In this case the Miami Marlins. They have a starting rotation that you could proudly put up against any in the league and feel pretty good about it. That automatically makes them a team in the conversation for the NL East, even with the Phillies, Braves and Mets. The Marlins can pitch well enough to compete with all of them, if they could even get above average offense.

So, can the Pirates offer a middle infielder or outfielder that the Marlins would feel is not only a good return, but can and in fact is expected to step right in for the 2024 season and help them improve their offense? One they can afford to lose, meaning of course they could offer Oneil Cruz or Bryan Reynolds, or even Jack Suwinski, but c’mon, they really can’t do that right?

So, Check? I’d suggest no.

I don’t see a team like Miami feeling that Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Ji-hwan Bae, Jared Triolo, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Conner Joe, Joshua Palacios, or anyone else you can think of in the system and ready to contribute at the Big League level even in theory, being enough. Maybe in part. Maybe in an effort to sweeten a deal, but the big piece that makes this a sensible deal for both sides right now, when both teams supposedly want to win right now, I don’t see it.

Let’s think even further, using this example.

OK, so we don’t think we have what Miami needs for right now. At least I don’t, based on the little bit of work we just put in here taking a look at the situation. Maybe you’re still with me, maybe you aren’t, either way, let’s follow the train of thought.

Maybe we can give Miami something they want instead of need?

Top end prospects regardless of position can sometimes be that kind of almost irresistible, sexy object you can dangle and even though it doesn’t help them this year, there’s still a chance they’re interested because at the end of the day, they have more starters than they can use and it’s still a high value return.

Also, it’s not like Miami is going to spend like the Mets, Phillies or Braves, so prospects are always going to have to be part of their recipe. Chances are, they aren’t looking for another starting pitching prospect close to the league, but you won’t find many teams regardless who are going to turn their nose up at an MLB Top 100 type like Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, or Anthony Solometo, but the Pirates while deep in this area, the MLB club is light, which should tell you even though it looks like 7 of the Pirates top 10 are pitchers, this club needs those prospects to help their own cause. Some as early as this year.

Probably not the best fit there.

Termarr Johnson would likely get their interest, but if you deal him, you better feel pretty damn great about Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, or whoever else from that list you want to choose. Mitch Jebb is too far away to even be in this conversation I’d imagine.

I have looked at this deal, or more accurately, potential fit for a deal in just about every way you could approach it, and no matter what, I just can’t make it work in my head. I can find you equal value deals, I can find you deals that would be accepted on The Show 100% of the time, but I can’t translate that into the real world and buy what I’m selling. I can’t even take from the Pirates bullpen that is simply shaping up to be wicked and make it work.

For instance, why would they take David Bednar (relax, he’s just our best MLB chip if we got nuts) as a big part of a package for Edward Cabrera, a starter, but also a guy who many believe could easily be the club’s closer should he be pushed out of the rotation.

The last thing I could suggest would be potentially seeing if they might be interested in moving one of their high ceiling, returning starting pitcher options like Sixto Sanchez or Max Meyer. Sixto has no options, is likely to start 2024 in the Marlins bullpen should nothing change with their mix and his shoulder is finally right, he’s only thrown a grand total of 1 minor league inning in the past 3 years.

Meyer pitched 6 innings for the Marlins back in 2022 before he tore his UCL, and he’s expected to return this Spring, currently ranked as their #3 prospect, along with his full compliment of MLB options. Meaning, this 24 year old, top prospect with rookie status intact and all his options can take his time working his way back in the minors and hopefully fulfill his top of the rotation profile. That said, his injury burned up over a year of his service time and his injury recovery threatens to at least limit his year 2. Essentially, this is a guy who likely is going to spend his year 2 as a rookie, who is working his way back from UCL surgery, so we aren’t talking more than maybe 120 MLB innings in a perfect world in 2024, but potentially a top of the rotation arm for 5 years, dirt cheap. High risk, high reward, but if the price is right, a bet I’d place because if it hits, wow.

I could argue neither of these pitchers is a lock to help the Pirates this year, thing is, Miami couldn’t really protest, they themselves aren’t “counting” on them in 2024, but the Pirates could potentially find a more affordable deal here that helps the talent level near the league or flat out in the league. I could also suggest Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, and Roansy Contreras all have a similar chance of working out, so either of these acquisitions would sort of just be adding to this mix. Maybe with a tad more pedigree on Meyer, but not a lot more.

It would be a risk to acquire either of those pitchers, and hopefully that would be reflected in the asking price. For instance, you might be able to leverage that risk into the Marlins taking one too, perhaps a lower level starter with big time upside in exchange or even offensive talent a bit farther away with a middle infield flyer type such as Bae tossed in to make it work. Risk for both, potential answers for 2024 for both, nothing negative for the 2024 product for either side. The Marlins are also planning to stretch left handed reliever A.J. Puk into a starter this Spring, which could add his name to potential trade candidate or give them room to deal from deeper into their depth than they planned.

This is just one match, with one team. I wrote all this to try to illustrate just how much deeper these things go than reading a report that a team wants THIS, and they have THIS to offer. It’s so much more than that, and I could do this for just about any potential match you toss my way. So could you if you think through all these factors.

Some will work easily, some I have to work through all of it and find something that might help like we just did for Miami, others are flat out not a good match in any way.

None of this takes into account a fourth factor that we simply can’t possibly estimate with any accuracy, and that’s the desperation tolerance of a General Manager. Some GM’s simply won’t allow desperation to inform their decisions. In other words, they’d rather go hungry than eat something they don’t like. Some GM’s love making deals and overspending to them is really all in your head. So long as they get what they need or want for right now, there’s no such thing, or their list of “insane” is really short. Mostly though, they’re all a reflection of their owner, if they’re risk adverse, chances are a trade will almost always on paper look dead even, or it just isn’t done.

Miami will trade from their depth here, but something tells me they’ll deal with someone who’s a bit more willing to assume risk than the Pirates.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five –

1-29-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

This time of year can be tough as a sports fan. The NFL is gone for a couple weeks before one last big show. The NHL is on their All Star hiatus for ten days. The MLB hot stove is more like a hot plate run from a cigarette lighter plug in an old Datsun. We don’t even have an NBA team here so at least for me, I don’t care what they have going on. College basketball anyone?

Let’s do this….

1. But There’s No Room For….

Pirates fans are facing something they haven’t dealt with since 2013, a system with talent near the top of MLB Pipeline and a MLB club that is already largely populated with Major League players. Back in 2013 the Pirates Top 10 prospects were, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Alan Hanson, Gregory Polanco, Luis Heredia, Barrett Barnes, Josh Bell, Nick Kingham, Dilson Herrera, and Wyatt Mathisen.

Some of those names you heard of, some even contributed in a big way to the Pirates competitive window that began that very year. Just as true, some of those names fell flat on their face, got traded, or underwhelmed here.

It’s an important lesson. There wasn’t a single member of this list below a 40SV rating, and the Pirates current top ten is just as full of potential regulars and stars.

Some of you probably even remember whining that Clint Barmes was taking at bats on a team with Jordy Mercer who also wasn’t the “star” we wanted and “blocking” Alan Hanson, who was the heir apparent at short at least in our minds. How were we holding back that generation’s phenom Gregory Polanco? Josh Bell was a outfielder, nobody had even suggested first base yet.

Point is, when it came time, there was of course room. And there will be again.

It’s natural for fans to look at a system or group of players stacked at a position and say, well, there’s no way there’s room for all these guys. That’s probably true, but if you don’t like something in baseball, wait ten minutes, it’ll change. Some of this current group won’t make it. Some of them will take this core and expand it to become part of the group that pushes this thing to new heights.

Looking at the prospect lists now needs to shift to focusing on who can or might help this year, and of course you care about the overall health, or that there is a really good looking kid in High A, but the focus has to change now because as of right now we’re no longer waiting for the savior, we’re looking for reinforcements.

Way back when we started this journey together in 2020 I told everyone they’d have to become more comfortable with good players eventually being supplanted. Well, we’re finally here, and that sort of thing will happen almost yearly for the next half decade or so.

Just remember, it far surpasses the alternative as far as fan experience goes.

2. Pittsburgher of the Year

Andrew McCutchen was recently bestowed that title by Pittsburgh Magazine.

It’s a wonderfully written story, I hope you actually take some time and read it.

I thought to myself, have I ever really sat back and thought fully about how rare it is a man like Andrew McCutchen comes along? I mean, players don’t just show up everywhere and become not only fixtures on your team, but also your community. Especially after the convenience of playing here is taken away.

We’ve been blessed here in Pittsburgh in this regard. Mario Lemieux was a huge French-Canadian kid who didn’t speak a lick of English when he was drafted, and now he’s a Pittsburgher through and through and undeniably saved his franchise from relocating.

Cam Heyward has roots here planted by his father Craig “Iron Head” Heyward, but none of that forced Cam to become the fixture of community excellence he’s become in Pittsburgh.

Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, they all have played here, won a lot and more than anything became part of our city.

Andrew, well, he did it in the hardest sport in North America to do so. In fact, he survived being traded from the Pirates and still called Pittsburgh home. His kids are Pittsburghers, his wife is a Pittsburgher and if you’ve ever run into him casually shopping at Market District, he’s so one of us there’s almost an understanding that seeing him there just isn’t all that special, let the man get his apples n’at.

Back in 2012, I ran into Cutch downtown just walking down the sidewalk. I had my kids with me and they both had their shirts on from the ballgame a few nights earlier they’d gotten

He’s a brilliant man, truly. Gifted as an artist. Quick witted and charming. Hell of a ballplayer too of course, but Andrew is never going to be defined as any one thing. Well, except maybe one of our very best adopted citizens, and the pride with which he represents us now is something none of us could possibly appreciate enough.

I could see Cutch doing 150 different things after he retires, he’d be good at anything he wanted to accomplish, but no matter what he chooses to do, I feel fairly certain, he’ll choose to keep home base right here, in his new home town.

We’re a better city for it, and him.

3. Five Predictions Before Opening Day

  • Mitch Keller Sharpened – Last season Mitch threw variations of 7 different pitches, some redundant, some actually worked against the effectiveness of others and he somehow still was one of the best starters in the National League. I’m hearing Mitch is working on paring down that offering, or at the very least, trying to create more separation between similar offerings.
  • Henry Handles the Backstop – This story has been the hotness all offseason, especially after Endy went down to UCL surgery, but behind the scenes, Henry Davis has been spending a ton of time working on his craft. Here’s my prediction, 10 days into Spring Training, the narrative is going to change to the Pirates simply not recognizing how good he was. He’s going to do more than ok back there.
  • Jack Will Expand his Zone – I think it will potentially cut down on his strikeouts looking, and add to his strikeouts swinging, but it’ll also add to his damage path. Jack is the type who will improve as long as he’s physically able on an area of concern over off seasons, and this is his focus this time. I won’t bet against him.
  • Jared Jones will Stand Out – Don’t get me wrong, he’ll be one of the first cuts thanks to MLB rules about service time due to injury, most players who aren’t on the 40-man will, but his stuff is going to blow away a lot of fans who haven’t seen him for an extended period of time.
  • Second Base will Clear Up – At least for now. I don’t want to pick winners and losers before the competition has taken place, but I think it’s hard to deny, Liover Peguero is probably entering this race in the pole position, and I don’t see him losing enough steam, or anyone else creating enough to push him aside. At least to start the season.

4. How Much Leash Does Shelton Have?

I don’t think it’s necessarily make or break for Derek Shelton this year, but I think we fans will end 2024 either feeling better about him as the skipper or building a bonfire under his seat.

Oh, I know, a whole lot of you have long since decided he wasn’t the right guy, I get it. I’d also add in here, 99% of what you’ve made that decision based on is exactly what Ben Cherington wants in a manager. What I’m saying here is, even if and when they fire him, you’re going to get Sherick Delton, a young hot shot with an analytics background who focuses on a player centric approach. I probably just saved them time on their Indeed post. And no, it doesn’t matter if he’s actually done those things in your mind, just the GM’s.

His decisions are analytic driven, and guess what the GM wants. His player usage is founded in the NBA spawned load management player rest philosophy. Again though, exactly what his GM wants. The Atlanta Braves for instance are the ONE team in the league that has completely abandoned this thought process.

See, it’s really hard to claim a guy is doing a crappy job if he’s doing exactly what you tell him to do and on top of that, nobody is blind, they know they haven’t given him enough talent to win yet.

This year, the communication from the team including Shelton himself is very much so, they expect, plan and want to win in 2024. Right or wrong, when you speak it, you can’t escape it.

If this year were a complete disaster, say a regression from last year’s win total without a glut of high impact injuries to high impact players, let’s just say, Cherington isn’t getting fired but someone will, and likely it’d be his entire staff on the same flight out of town.

I can tell you last year was largely seen as an overachievement internally based on their own projections, so if you expect anyone at 115 Federal is ready to start flipping tables and kicking people out the door, first know they aren’t remotely close to where you want them to be.

This isn’t about right or wrong, this is simply about honesty. Shelton is seen as a partner in this rebuild. A guy charged with taking the seeds, and dirty looks from you, planting them, growing them and ultimately deploying them, but everything these players do short of forecasting when they’ll be injured is scripted. They know the innings counts they want. They know the number of at bats they would prefer everyone get. They know how much rest they want each player to have, and when. They know all the injuries being nursed.

More than anything, they know that Shelton has this room, and that might be the only thing he’s done that’s fair game for judging before this season starts off. It’s just about the only thing he could have overtly failed on that didn’t depend on talent.

I’d be shocked if firing him was taken even half way seriously before the end of 2025, but I can’t say the same for his assistants. Much like I outlined the scapegoat trail from Cherington to Shelton, well, Marin and Haines will hit the firing squad long before Shelton too, again, unless its historically bad and not injury driven.

5. Let’s End on a Crazy Thought

This team has the potential to be offensively dominant. I say that, not forgetting that Andy Haines is the hitting coach.

I look at a lineup with Jack, Reynolds, Peguero, Cruz, Hayes, Cutch, Davis as the features and it’s really hard to think your way around them not being successful as an offensive force. Sure there are what ifs baked in, sure it’s optimistic with guys like Davis and Peggy, but it’s also not entirely dismissible either.

They have 3 or 4 guys who could pop off for 30 homeruns.

They have 3 or 4 guys who are almost locks to finish with OPS north of .750.

They have speed, power, tremendous eyes at the dish and honestly, it’s pretty evenly spread throughout. It really has a dynamic potential to produce.

Obviously the biggest position fans have to be concerned about is the starting rotation, and that’s been the case all season long, and will remain so until they upgrade it or prove us wrong, but this offense, it’s a lot closer to reaching the heights this executive team has aimed for than it’s not.

I don’t think it’s enough to win a bunch without the pitching taking a jump, but I do think they won’t be fun to pitch to, and there should be a lot more baseballs that wind up floating in the river this Summer.

From purely an offensive perspective, I’m quite pleased with the progress, at least on paper.

Why Coming Back to PNC is a Big Deal for Me

1-29-24 – Ethan Smith / @mvp_EtHaN 01/28/24

Yea, this is a little different than what you’ve seen from me on this site, but I wanted an outlet to express just how much returning to PNC Park this April is for me.

If you don’t know, my name is Ethan and I have hosted Locked On Pirates for almost four years at this point, but I do not reside in Pittsburgh.

I was born in Carnegie, PA, but I grew up in Augusta, GA and have lived in Savannah for the past seven years, but that never stopped me from being a true, diehard Pittsburgh sports fan. Also, yes, I am a LA Clippers and University of Georgia fan, mainly due to proximity and the lack of an NBA franchise in Pittsburgh, sue me.

If you’ve watched my podcast at all, you’d notice I have a Pittsburgh forearm sleeve that features the Roberto Clemente Bridge, a Steelers outline logo, the Pirates road “Pittsburgh” script lettering and a No. 5 in honor of my late grandfather who played professional soccer and got me into baseball along with my father at a young age.

I also have the “412” area code tattooed on the left part of my chest, so yea, Pittsburgh is as what my friends would describe “my personality”.

So why does returning to PNC Park this April mean so much to me?

Well lets start with the last time I was at PNC.

June, 19th, 2021. Yea, that long ago. For context, here was the Pirates starting pitcher and lineup that day:

SP: Wil Crowe / C: Michael Perez /1B: Colin Moran / 2B: Adam Frazier / 3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes / SS: Kevin Newman / LF: Ben Gamel / CF: Bryan Reynolds / RF: Gregory Polanco

Phillip Evans, Eric Gonzales and Ka’i Tom were pinch hitters in that matchup as well, so yea, its been awhile.

The Pirates won 6-3 that day, propelled by a huge seventh inning that featured two three-run home runs from Michael Perez and Reynolds. The seventh inning also featured six walks.

I was at the game with my mom, sister, aunt, uncle and cousin, so yea, it was fun and I even recorded a postgame reaction video for a Pirates team that was 25-44 at the time (it was so long ago that I no longer have the video).

Moving on from a game recap from almost three years ago, one feeling overtook me while I was at a game that many would just consider another day at the ballpark in the middle of the summer, I felt like I was at home.

Home technically was, and still is, over 600 miles from PNC Park, 699 to be exact from where I am sitting writing this piece, but again, I felt like I was at home, a feeling that anyone can enjoy.

I was relatively new on the Pirates scene, with 2021 being my first full season as host of Locked On Pirates, with no “real” audience as of yet.

Hell, Gary Morgan even took a stab at being on my show a few months before to help a early-20s, youthful, new podcaster get his footing, and he’s still on my show to this day every Monday during the season and I thank him eternally for what he’s done for me in that time.

Now, Locked On Pirates sits at 2500+ Twitter followers and nearly 1400 Youtube subscribers, something many of you reading this piece are a part of, a strong community for a daily show.

I tweeted about making the trip official and man, I did not expect the response it would get:

Coming to PNC is different this time, but why?

I know I will still feel at home at PNC in April, that will never change, but I also get to fulfill a lifelong dream of being in attendance to a Pirates home opener, which is very high on my sports bucket list.

Ultimately though, one of the biggest feelings I cannot wait to have is nervousness, anxiety and all the other jitters, but in a good way, because I get to watch baseball, in-person, along some people I have never met before but would consider best friends.

Just to name a few, Pirates Queen Banshee, Gary Morgan, every contributor on this site, maybe even my fellow Pittsburgh hosts at Locked On, Hunter Hodies, Christopher Carter and Nick Farbaugh, even though I don’t know who will all be there.

I consider every person who takes 30 minutes out of their daily lives to listen to my show family, you’re all family to me, because I never thought I would have a massive outlet to talk about sports with the way my writing and podcasting “career” was going.

Now, I get to walk into PNC Park on April 5 to watch the Pirates face Baltimore, and people are genuinely excited to meet me, chat baseball and probably knock back some booze.

Folks, and this is a bit personal, I deal with anxiety and depression daily, sometimes to the point where I force myself to be productive to not think about the first-world problems I deal with on a daily basis, and many of you who read these articles and listen to my show need to hear this, you genuinely make me happy when you interact with my content, even if some of the “SIGN TREVOR BAUER” comments get annoying.

I am also a massive over thinker, thinking I can always do more, but for me to be able to go to what I truly call home, Pittsburgh, in April and celebrate the return of the best sport on the planet alongside people I have never met who I consider family, folks, thats music to my ears.

In reality, PNC Park is a structure that houses a baseball team that hasn’t seen the postseason in nearly a decade. Grass, sand, beer, seats, yea you get the point.

To me, PNC is a meeting place for Pirates fans to watch their favorite team, alongside their favorite people watching their favorite past time. The fact that I get to do that again for the first time in nearly three years, especially as what I would consider myself an important part of the Pirates community, puts butterflies in my stomach.

I am so excited to get to meet all of you, and Gary, who I know will look at this before its posted, I think you deserve a beer, or two, on me for everything you’ve done for me so far and will continue to do.

And to all of you who listen to my show and read my pieces, don’t worry, the next one is on me.

So to answer the question in a straightforward manner, what does returning to PNC Park mean to me?

In a straightforward manner, it means I get to have three hours of baseball, beer, great people, family, Oneil Cruz and a damn good time.

Thank you all for reading.

P.S. I teared up about three or four times writing this.

Five Pittsburgh Pirates featured in MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list

1-28-24 – Ethan Smith / @mvp_EtHaN 01/28/24

With every new season comes new rankings for baseball’s best prospects, an area Pittsburgh Pirates fans have had to be very familiar with for the past half decade.

MLB Pipeline released their top-100 MLB prospects list on Friday night, with Jim Callis, Johnathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranking the best of the best in the minor leagues.

The ranking system is one I typically use to see risers and fallers in the prospect ranks, and for the Pirates, their representation was felt.

2023 first overall pick Paul Skenes and 2022 fourth overall pick Termarr Johnson each ranked in the top-50, ranking third and 44th respectively.

Three others from the Pirates system were included as well, with the pitching trio of Jared Jones(62nd), Anthony Solometo(82nd) and Bubba Chandler(93rd) rounding the Pirates inclusion in the top-100.

The Pirates were one of five teams to have five or more prospects in the top-100, with fellow NL Central rivals Chicago and Cincinnati being among those five teams.

This is impressive for Pittsburgh, seeing as they had three graduates last season in Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis and Quinn Priester, and they have continually had one of top farms in baseball over the past few seasons.

With all of that said, let’s take a gander at all of these guys, their expectations for 2024, their ETA’s, grades, and more.

RHP Paul Skenes – No. 3 overall prospect

Skenes slotted it at number three overall on the list on Friday night, sitting behind Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio, the latter who I imagine he will have plenty of battles with in the near future.

It comes as no surprise that Skenes is the top ranked pitcher among all prospects with the hype he received coming out of LSU last year, garnering “generational” talent praise while being coined the best pitching prospect to come out of the draft since Stephen Strasberg, and I’d say that pick worked out well for Washington.

For Skenes, it all starts with his fastball, which saw a spike in velocity and production upon his arrival in Baton Rouge from Air Force. It averages out around 98mph and he’s hit 102mph before, so there’s a reason its graded an 80 pitch for him, the highest grade number MLB Pipeline uses.

He also has a lethal slider that grades out at 70/80, with it usually sitting in the upper 80s while eliciting a 62 percent swing and miss percentage in his five starts in the minors last year. It’s his best secondary pitch and one all of you should get familiar with quickly because it’s his best strikeout pitch right now outside of his fastball.

His changeup still could use work, grading out at a 55/80, but its a pitch that already sits at 89-93mph and will only improve with time as he learns to get opposing hitters to chase it.

Folks, Skenes is the real deal. Scouts have said it almost to an endless degree, and its with reason. He has the pitch mix, the build and the swagger of a strong starter in this league.

When four of your five grades are above a 60 on the 20-80 grade scale, that’s not on accident. The biggest question surrounding Skenes is when he’ll debut, and MLB Pipeline believes it will be this season with his ETA slated for 2024.

Sure, Skenes could see big league action this year, but the team also has to see how he adjusts to a full-season schedule for a starter. He’ll likely start in Greensboro or Altoona this year, with AA Altoona more likely, and the evaluation process on him will be fruitful with his potential.

He’ll also be a quick riser no doubt, likely getting plenty of AAA Indianapolis time at the least. Maybe he makes his debut this season, maybe he doesn’t, but the Pirates have the strongest pitching prospect in their system they’ve had since they drafted Gerrit Cole and will utilize him sooner rather than later.

2B Termarr Johnson – No. 44 overall prospect

Arguably my favorite prospect in the entire system, Termarr Johnson slotted in at number 44 overall in the top-100.

Johnson was also ranked the highest second baseman in the prospect pool this year, indicating he’d have a spot in the top-50 as one of the best pure hitters in all of the minor leagues.

That hit tool is why the Pirates selected him fourth overall in 2022, with MLB Pipeline saying:

As the 2022 Draft approached, Johnson emerged as not only one of the best pure hitters in the class, but was perceived to be one of the best high school hitters in recent memory.

MLB Pipeline

That hit tool grades 55/80 right now, mainly due to his insane hand-eye coordination skills and bat speed that offers plus power, even for a player who only stands at 5-foot-8.

Johnson did have a shaky beginning to his first full campaign last year, striking out 35 percent of the time in the first few months, but instead of continuing to struggle, he went on to hit 18 homers while walking over 100 times with a .422 OBP and .860 OPS, so yea, I’d say he did just fine.

He also already has 412, yes 412, at bats under his belt, with 19 homers in that span. His power and bat skills will propel him to the big league level at some point, with his power also sitting at a 55/80 grade right now, with his fielding improving as well.

Johnson was a shortstop in high school, but the Pirates have stuck him at second base, a position I think best suits his defensive skillset and lack of range(something he can’t control due to his build). His fielding grades 55/80 as well, making him a 55 grade overall prospect, a number I think could rise if his success continues.

MLB Pipeline sits his ETA at 2025, which is feasible given his age and talent. There is the off chance he gets an Oneil Cruz like appearance at the very end of the season depending on where the Pirates are as far as the playoffs are concerned, but I wouldn’t expect he gets a full-time call-up this year, even if he does tear it up.

Expect a start in Greensboro for Johnson, a quick call-up to Altoona and a cap off in Indianapolis to end his second, full minor league campaign.

RHP Jared Jones – No 62 overall prospect

If you’ve listened to my podcast, Locked On Pirates, you’ve likely heard me say Jared Jones’ name about 100 times this off-season.

Jones was drafted over slot by the Pirates in the second round in 2020 and has made 66 starts since, becoming one of Pittsburgh most dynamic and consistent pitching prospects since his arrival.

His 4.31 career ERA in 315.0 IP is impressive, and that number came down after he had a minor league career best 3.85 ERA last season between his time in Altoona and Indianapolis while also topping 120-plus innings in the past two campaigns.

His pitch mix is all about power, a calling card he gained from his time in high school and something the Texas Longhorns loved before Pittsburgh pulled him away.

With that said, it should come as no surprise that his fastball is his highest graded pitch at 65/80, averaging out at 96mph last season. It’s a pitch he typically likes to throw up in the zone to miss bats, using his other pitches, which we’ll talk about in a moment, to be more of a command pitcher that works around the zone.

He has three other pitches that he features in his arsenal, a curveball, changeup and slider, all pitches that grade out 50/80 or higher.

He tends to use his slider and curveball as his best secondary pitches, pitches that have helped him post a 10.4 K/9 over the past two seasons. His slider sits in the upper 80s, having good sweeping action while his curveball sits in the lower 80s and has great movement and drop.

The changeup tends to be his fourth pitch, and it’s seen improvements over his minor league career, but it’s a pitch he tends to put a backseat on using in large quantities.

There’s no doubt Jones will continue to have a power archetype when it comes to how he pitches, and with work in Altoona and Indianapolis last year, he’s a call-up candidate this year for sure, with MLB Pipeline pinning a 2024 ETA on him.

If his command and control continue to improve and he performs well this season, expect Jones in black and gold sooner rather than later and look for Jones to be one of the top performers in Spring Training this season as well.

LHP Anthony Solometo – No 82 overall prospect

Ranking third among all left-handed pitching prospects, Anthony Solometo ranks 82nd among all prospects in baseball and that’s not a mistake.

Solometo was drafted in 2021, becoming affordable for the Pirates at 37th due to drafting Henry Davis under slot, and Solometo immediately got eyes on him due to his funky delivery and being penned one of the best left-handed prospects in the 2021 class.

Topping 100 innings for the first time last year, Solometo became a riser in the Pirates system, posting a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP between his time in Greensboro and Altoona.

He’s also grown quite a bit since being drafted, standing 6-foot-5, so he has not only the frame and build of an MLB starter, but the stuff too.

His three pitches and control grades all rank 50/80 or higher, with his fastball and slider ranking the highest along with his control.

Starting with his fastball, it sits around 91-92mph most of the time, but he showcased 95 as a maximum velocity last year, indicating that average velocity could increase with time. It’s also a pitch that tends to rise, which is mainly due to his delivery, and it misses bats quite a bit.

His slider works well in tandem with the fastball, and that’s his usual one-two punch, with the slider working almost like a cutter, and he uses it well to run away from left-handed hitters and in on right-handed hitters.

He tends to use his changeup against righties more often than not, with the pitch sitting around 84mph and being a chase machine.

Solometo has pitched 158 innings in his career thus far, with 51.2 of those coming in Altoona, so there’s still a ton more to see on Solometo, but his career 3.08 ERA leaves plenty to be excited about.

His strides in 2023 were noticed by MLB Pipeline with this ranking:

Solometo made some excellent adjustments during the 2023 season and saw his command and control improve markedly as the year wore on. Because of the deception, his stuff plays up especially against left-handed hitters. Just 21 for all of the 2024 season, he’s poised to make another step forward in his march to becoming at least a mid-rotation big league starter.

MLB Pipeline

As noted there, he’s only 21, but he’s gotten better and better with each start, and if he pans out, which I expect him to with his deceptive delivery and control, the Pirates won’t have to sign veteran lefties every off-season.

Expect Solometo to be a riser in the system again this year, likely starting in Greensboro or Altoona and making Indianapolis his home for most of the campaign. His ETA is 2024 as well, so don’t rule out a small stint at the majors either if Solometo continues to see success.

RHP Bubba Chandler – No 93 overall prospect

The final of the five Pirates represented in the top-100 is Bubba Chandler.

Chandler was a two sport athlete in high school and nearly went to Clemson to play football and baseball, but the Pirates pried him away from Dabo Swinney and Erik Bakich in the third round in 2021.

The Pirates signed Chandler for first round money in the third round that year, again thank you Henry Davis for that, signing him at $3 million.

Questions surrounded Chandler on if he would be a two-way, Ohtani like player for the Pirates, but Pittsburgh was adamant about making him a pitcher in 2023 after he hit and pitched at the lower levels in the previous campaign.

The returns on pitching only weren’t great at the beginning, but he turned it on in the second half of 2023, allowing 2 ER or less in eight of his final 10 starts last year. In nine of those 10 starts, he also went five innings or more, showcasing his potential to be an inning’s machine down the line.

Unlike the other pitchers on this list, I don’t see Chandler making a massive leap to the Majors in 2024, and MLB Pipeline agrees with a 2025 ETA.

Nevertheless, he’s got stuff, and lots of it.

He’s a 55/80 overall prospect, with all of his pitches and control ranking 50/80 or higher.

His fastball is his primary and best pitch, grading 60/80, a pitch that sits mid 90s usually but cant top out at 99. Much like Jones, Chandler uses the fastball to miss bats up in the zone to compliment his other pitches in his arsenal, an arsenal that’s very similar to Jones as well.

He’s AA Altoona debut really showcases his stuff well, striking out eight over five one-hit innings.

As for his other pitches, his slider is and will be his true secondary pitch. It sits in the upper 80s, even hitting 90 last year, and as you see in the video, it runs away from righties with a ton of movement and life.

His curveball has good action as well, having good drop that gets hitters to chase more often than not when placed correctly. He also doesn’t shy away from his changeup either, but of the four pitches, it’s the one that needs the most work for sure.

MLB Pipeline also thinks his time with Skenes will help with his long-term development:

Because of his athleticism, there has always been confidence that Chandler would become a consistent strike-thrower with more reps, and he walked only 2.4 per nine over those last nine starts. The Pirates also think being around Paul Skenes at the end of the year and beyond will only help Chandler learn about how to prepare and reach his considerable ceiling.

MLB Pipeline

From what we’ve seen so far on Chandler, the first round money appears to be worth it with his upside as am athletic strike-thrower. He’s also only 21, so he has plenty of time to bring those secondary pitches up to a 60/80 grade with his fastball.

He’s already a 55/80 overall prospect with two campaigns under his belt, and with potential graduations from Skenes, Jones or Solometo, he could quickly become Pittsburgh’s top pitching prospect in time. He was already Pittsburgh’s 5th ranked prospect from MLB Pipeline last year, and that’s where I would expect him again to begin 2024.

Expect Chandler to be a mainstay in Altoona this year, honing his craft and continuing to throw in the zone, with a call-up to Indianapolis very likely to end the year.

The Pirates getting representation in the top-100 is no joke, these five players have real talent, but with all prospects, they have to see out that upside. Development has been a question for the organization, but with these five guys, even if two hit, it makes the team better, and two hitting is a very likely outcome.

The MLB Pipeline top-100 will of course update throughout the year as always, so keep an eye on names like Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco or Mitch Jebb to potentially make a back-end appearance on the list.

Enjoy these five prospects, watch them grow in the minors and ultimately, root for them and get ready for their debuts, because we will see them this or next season from this talented group.

Steel City Pirates – Baseball Questions on NFL Championship Weekend

1-28-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s a slow time of year, so the worries, concerns and questions of the fan base tend to fracture. There’s no universal goings on to debate and comment on, so people’s concerns jump all over the place.

Perfect time to do these things. Let’s Go!

Question 1

Recommendations for a first time fan attending spring training? – DilfMagic on X

The first thing I’ll say is follow my friend Douglas Smith on Facebook and his Pirates Spring Training Insiders Group. He goes every year, has written a couple guides about it and is always happy to geek out about anything you might want to know. I know when I’m beat, and I’m simply never going to touch the amount of knowledge Doug has on this subject. We had him on the Pirates Fan Forum to detail a bunch of his thoughts awhile back. Feel free to give that a listen too. https://megaphone.link/DKPS8912691692

Now, for me, I think the most important part is to make sure you save time for actual baseball. I know this sounds nuts but especially if you go with family, there’s so much to do and see the baseball can find it’s way to the back seat.

Buy tickets in advance, you can get them when you walk up, but as soon as lineups or pitchers being used are announced, you’ll be shocked how fast they fill up, and it’ll help you with my first point.

Lastly, if you’re an autograph hound, have some respect for all the players you’ll run into around town. They’re almost all gracious, but they just want to eat, play, enjoy the beach with their friends and family too. Basically, ask them to do stuff for the fans near the ballpark, not when they’re trying to just unwind.

Have fun!

Question 2

Will there be another big name signed. – Shawn Wheeler

I mean, define “big name”, because to some that would have been Adam Fraizer, and in reality, that’s more of a name you recognize than an actual big name. That’s the first thing I have to say on the subject because to every single fan that answer is going to be different.

I personally don’t think they’ll sign anyone of note, instead I think they’ll trade for what they need.

Question 3

With payroll potentially not accommodating a free agent high rotation guy, is it now more likely we will get another 3/4/5 guy and place faith in getting him to mid-season and have young/recovering guys step

Up? Follow-up Q: Do you think we have enough AAA/AA/A pitching depth for the next couple years? – Douglas Smith

Speak of the Devil, Douglas here is the man when it comes to Spring Training info.

I absolutely think they’ll bring in another pitcher of that level Doug either via trade or signing. I know for a fact they believe Brubaker will return this year, and that they expect him to contribute. I’d hope they don’t expect him to jump right back in where he was, but I do know they expect something, and I know they hope picking up his 3rd year of arbitration makes sense.

Burrows on the other hand, well, I’m sure he’ll debut this year, but you can’t count on him purely because he’s a rookie, let alone the injury recovery.

Now, next couple years? So hard to say. I’ll go this way Doug, they have what I feel are guys who should be on schedule to debut each of the next three years that we have some reasonable expectation “should” be in that class.

Enough and Pitching so very rarely fit together though, so it’s much easier to just say no.

Question 4

Will O’Neil Cruz be one of the biggest bust in Pittsburgh Pirate history? – @pghfan15061 on X

I don’t think so Rob, but since you’ve asked me this twice I believe, I’ll assume you do. Honestly though, it’s already too late for him to be the biggest bust. I can name 5 or 6 guys who were first round picks which absolutely outrank a lottery ticket acquired for a reliever that simply never delivered a damn thing, let alone 17 dingers in his rookie season that lasted only 87 games.

Anyone could fail, but I think you have better bets for what you think will be epically and historically bad.

Question 5

Since the signing of Aroldis there’s been a lot of posts and talk of the bullpen. I hadn’t seen Kyle Nicolas name mentioned. Are the Pirates still planning on using him as a reliever? Has the inability to use the 60 day IL until spring training been an impediment? – Robert Hagelin Jr. on X

Kyle is an enigma. Been a starter but it was a lot to ask with his innings load last year. As far as I know, still considered a starter but I’d imagine not in MLB at the start in any capacity.

Yes, the 60-day thing sucks, I actually wrote about that rule needing amended a month or so ago in 5 thoughts. I can also see how it would be abused so I don’t have an answer for how they should fix the weirdness it causes.

Question 6

What odds would you place on the Pirates making a major trade before spring training? – James Littleton

Kinda like I said to Shawn earlier, define Major. It’s going to be a different answer for everyone at the end of the day.

I think they’ll make a move to fortify their pitching staff though. Will it be “major”? Oh, I doubt it sincerely. We’re probably looking at a guy who slots in the back end of the rotation who hopefully has potential to work his way into more. More importantly, someone who at least has the team control to be a factor next year, or even longer.

That’s the type of deal they need to pull off, not overpaying for someone on the last year of team control, only to face all the same questions again in 2025. I think the team would be best next year if they enter it with 4/5 of their rotation “locked in” at least to the degree you feel they could open the season without a move, even if they should do more anyway.

Question 7

So little has happened outside of Chapman the past month so hard to think of anything interesting tbh. Do you think Hernandez starts the year in Indy? Let’s assume Ro is #5 and Falter is long man in the pen to make it easy. – Adam Yarkovsky on X

I kinda always thought Hernandez had a good shot to start in Indy because he has an option. Now, that was of course before Chapman, and now, yeah, it’s damn near a lock.

The funny thing is, I think that he’s got a good shot of looking better than Borucki, in fact, I’d be shocked if he didn’t. His stuff is way better, but Borucki laid down some crazy and unsustainable stats last season if you ask me.

Quality depth, starting MLB players in AAA, a lot of these concepts are going to be foreign concepts to some Pirates fans, because even in the window last decade they didn’t have that, at least not enough of it.

I’m not going to assume anything like that for the fifth starter or a long man role. Yes, they’re both out of options, but at this stage, clinging to perceived talent or even witnessed talent. If it isn’t there, they won’t be. I believe they’ll cling onto both of them hoping one wins a spot, but if it isn’t happening, I can’t see them holding on hoping games that matter make something out of them.

They show it in Spring or they probably don’t show it here, at least not at the big league level. Bluntly, if Ro looks like he did last year, he’ll clear waivers easily especially with the glut of others being trimmed at the same time and be assigned to the minors. Falter being a lefty, probably has more of a chance to fail upward.

Question 8

2023 The Pirates Flew Outta The Gate with an unbelievable win tally in the month of April. The team looked unstoppable.

Then in May they began to teeter off with struggles to get series wins and wins alone.

With that said, in your opinion, what would the Pirates need to do to stay consistent all year long and not copy the 2023 season and take that next big step! Lets Go Bucs!!!!! – Bobby Castine on X

Did you ever watch Ocean’s Eleven?

Well, the Pirates need a couple miracles just like that crew needed to pull off the heist of a lifetime.

Miracle number 1 – They need Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez to at least be what they’ve been.

Miracle number 2 – They need the starters to stay healthy. This team is a Keller injury away from a season that likely has a very poor outcome for instance.

Miracle number 3 – Henry Davis hits and catches better than we’ve seen, which bluntly neither individually would classify as a miracle, but both together for a virtual rookie, yeah, that might be asking for a bit much.

Truthfully though, that team simply put pitched their asses off early on. Good pitchers looked great. Great pitcher (singular on purpose) looked Cy Young level. They led the league in quality starts and the bullpen was plenty deep to support that kind of starting pitching. As the starters faltered, the bullpen cracks became apparent.

This year, the bullpen is stronger, at least on paper, but the rotation, well, you can’t feel as good as last year, or, can you? Think back to how much confidence you had in Vince Velasquez or Rich Hill? Think back to how much you had in Contreras. Paper is paper, the field is the field.

Question 9

Do you think now that someone like Luis Ortiz has seen the big leagues and gotten his feet wet, do you think he can help more now vs. when the Bucs first brought him up? – Neal Kokiko

This will be Luis Ortiz’ third season he pitches MLB innings, and of course the team should expect him to produce. First off, he did better last year than many want to acknowledge. Started 15 games, pitched in 18 and delivered 86.2 innings of ball with a 4.78 ERA. Way too many walks.

He was an all or nothing outcome pitcher. Strikeout, walk or hit seemed to accompany every at bat. He threw more innings collectively in 2023 with 143.1, a 20 inning jump. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you are also tinkering with your delivery on the side, those innings magnify.

Of all the Pirates kids on the verge, Ortiz to me has the inside track to claim the 5th spot in the rotation and by that I mean the one spot they leave for a kid not his level of ability.

Question 10

How do the fangraphs Cruz projections for ‘24 compare withe the actual stats for SS last year? Projections don’t seem overly optimistic, which is fine, but what might we be looking at?? – Jack Mycka on X

The Pirates had 7 people patrol SS for them in 2023 equaling 25 homeruns, one of which was provided by Cruz himself before being injured.

Fangraphs projects him to hit 25 and hit around .250. Lots of K’s, not lots of BB’s. As you probably know, I don’t really pay much heed to projections, especially for young players who don’t have a long track record. The more track has been laid, the better the projections usually are, because you have history to aggregate them. In fact, Cruz’ projections for 2024 aren’t all that dissimilar from his projections for 2023.

His early returns and admittedly very short sample size in 2023 showed an increased focus on taking his walks and not striking out at a 2:1 clip. Not long enough to effect a prognostication, but long enough to show he was working on improving in the area, and we should potentially expect him to show that again.

The truth is, he’s essentially a rookie as it comes to experience and much like I won’t begin to predict what say Quinn Priester will accomplish in 24, it’s very hard to nail down what Cruz will do. The same exciting potential is there, but we simply have to see him do it.

Question 11

As someone new to baseball, you seem like a good person to ask (even if it does make me look silly). Why are some pitchers purely closers? Why aren’t they in the rotation? I can look elsewhere for more info on all different types of pitching roles. – Edward Bechham

As with most things in baseball, this has changed over time Edward. The “closer” is a relatively new thing. And I say new in relation to the history of this very old game. See the Pirates have had plenty of pitchers finish off games for them, Kent Tekulve, Elroy Face, and on into the guys you probably find more familiar like David Bednar, but back in the days of Face and Tekulve, they’d sometimes be asked to give the club 3 or even 4 innings when the starter ran out of gas. They were more, finishers than closers. They’d also do it 3,4 maybe even 5 times a week.

Starters going 8 or 9 was routine.

Specialization took over in the game, especially in the 80’s. In fact, the stat “saves” didn’t officially start being recorded until 1969.

MLB clubs believe that it takes a special player, with a special mentality to get those “harder to get outs” that finish off a game. The stat gives it more prestige, and that equals more money for guys who have them and are asked to deliver them.

I’ve long been a proponent of preferring they use their best “bullets” against the hardest part of a lineup rather than a specific inning, but it is what it is for now.

Analytics eventually will claim this position if you ask me, so will the arbitration process, but until 90% of everyone stops feeling this is a thing, it’ll be a thing.

If it were soccer, it would be like asking why your best striker is who you want taking a penalty kick. Of course you want your best in the highest pressure situation, and just as obviously, that makes sense, even if the best bet might be whoever has the hot, um, leg that day.

Hope that covers it brother, and I also appreciate you feel comfortable enough to ask me. I’d hope most fans wouldn’t try to make you feel less for trying to learn.

Question 12

As it stands today, looks like Reynolds in left and Suwinski in center. How will right field shape out? Olivares mostly, or a lefty/righty platoon with Palacios? Would like to see Cutch there once or twice a week as well. – Shearod Learn

I can’t even say they’re done Shearod. They probably shouldn’t be. I certainly don’t think either of those names should be a lock. As to Cutch, all I can say is the team and he wanted him to play out there last year. They’ve said the same this year. We’ll just have to wait and see, but I wouldn’t make any assumptions about how it shakes out, I think they’ve set up a true competition here, and they don’t need to be married to any of them.

Question 13

Gary…the rebuilding is over for the pirates….Do you believe we move on from Derek Shelton if we have another bad season? Bc I do, and Andy Haines coming back, I mean he was fired by the Brewers for a reason #LetsGoBucs – Chris Bunnell

First, as much as I agree on Haines, that is quite frankly the dumbest reason to quote. Just about everyone in professional sports has been fired from somewhere along the line, including Clint Hurdle, Chuck Tanner, Danny Murtaugh, all I’m saying is being fired doesn’t promise a guy who must be fired.

Shelton I believe is entering the first year where he has what I’m sure the team will publicly say could/should win. They could be completely full of crap, but it’ll still be said, and expected at least publicly. Ben Cherington won’t go anywhere, he’s done nothing he didn’t sell to Nutting 5 years ago, but Shelton should this team underachieve, or barely achieve, he could be the scapegoat. Now, I don’t think he will be fired, but this is the first year I think it’s a subject that shouldn’t just be dismissed.

It’s also his first real opportunity to show us what he can do with better players.

Yin and Yang, they both live together at all times, and baseball shows that on a daily basis.

Question 14

Since logically, they don’t contended this year….. what do you see as the rotation at year end heading into 25?…. Thank you – LegLock22 on X

I can’t even tell you how the starting rotation enters opening week looking like. Keller, Perez, and Gonzales of course but after that, unless they do something, kids. Like, what if they trade for a guy they have 2 years of control of?

What I think they’d like, is for Ortiz, Priester, Ro, Burrows, Jones, Skenes to all make a case and along with Brubaker form the 2025 rotation with Keller. Will that happen, by god if I knew, I’d have money somewhere on it brother.

Question 15

Do you think the Bucs still believe in Nick Gonzalez or are they hoping his stock goes up for future trade value – Kyle Steiner on X

I can honestly say, teams don’t “hope for trade value”, they hope for contributions to the team’s cause. Sometimes that manifests itself in trade value, sometimes it manifests itself in someone else being traded.

Do they believe in Nick, I mean brother he’s only had 100 MLB at bats, and while it was pretty abysmal, that’s not enough to know anything really. In fact, all they’ve really learned is his bad tendencies in the minors were exposed at the MLB level in a very small sample size.

If they have formed a final decision on Nick, I’d suggest they won’t have much success developing a team internally, that takes patience, guidance and more than anything time.

Question 16

With Chapman here, the plan is to rely on the pen and shorten games. But what about the first 5 innings or so? Do you see the Pirates using a traditional SP there or more of the opener/short stint stuff, even if the talent pool is (presumably) better? – Nick Cammuso

I think that was kinda how they were shaping up anyway. I felt this bullpen was strong, and thought they’d have to lean on it before they strengthened it. Now I think they have created an opportunity where they could deal from strength to improve themselves at another spot, not necessarily before the season even. They could flip Chapman for a nice piece, even one that helps right now at the deadline. Maybe Holderman becomes expendable, who knows.

One thing I know isn’t really in the card is a Bednar deal. I know how dumb they have been, I know how little everyone trusts the brain trust here, but this one isn’t happening, not this year.

Now, will they use a split approach or opener or whatever nonsense, I can’t say no, they just did last year and have again said it remains something they might employ.

Honestly though, just from the very limited conversations I’ve had with anyone who might know, feels to me like while they’re willing to employ alternate methods to get innings, they’d much prefer to have starters start and give them quality starts more often than not.

Look at the beginning of last season. They can’t have planned to lead the league in quality starts for the first month, yet there they were, eating up and enjoying every single one of them. The alternate stuff came in when they had to, not because they wanted to outsmart the league.

Question 17

The optimist question. What do you do next year if Henry hits and does at least average as catcher. Where are you when Endy comes back? – Scott Nelson

I think this dream scenario has been talked about from the moment it became apparent both would make the league. If Henry wins the gig, and Endy comes back next year ready to step back in, I expect them to compete. In an ideal world, one would be the starter, the other would be the “backup” but both could play other spots if need be. On the surface, that looks like an easier task for Endy.

Either way, as we sit here right now, one of them has caught at an MLB level, neither has hit at an MLB level. Endy has some things to prove too is the point, it’s not like he laid down tape that says F whatever you did in 2024, Here’s Endy!

He’ll have to earn his spot back, and that’s as real as I can get, even if it’s completely unfair to the kid.

Question 18

It seems like the 2 potential trade partners for the pirates, for young controllable starting pitchers are the mariners and marlins. Do you see or heard any news of a potential trade happening with them? Or is thier another team that could be a trade partner? I know some free agent dominoes haven’t fallen yet (Snell and Montgomery), along with the potential of Cease of being dealt. – Billy Tissue

No, and you won’t hear anything credible unless it’s right on the cusp. You need two ingredients for trade rumors to leak. 1. A team that needs to build up a market for a player they want to trade (Cease being a great example), and 2. A GM trying to save face. A move needs made to help them improve and he or she decides to make sure someone knew how crazy another team was in their request.

Bottom line, if you hear a rumor and one of those two things isn’t involved, it’s probably crap. The Dodgers are a good match, they have a ton of pitching and probably a few they could move on from. The Royals are interesting, their rotation has been built upon and their system stinks so they could use some prospects.

I also don’t believe the White Sox want to move Cease at the moment. Just seeing how crazy they could get some exec to get. Probably laid a lot of groundwork for the deadline.

Armed and Dangerous?

Shortly after agreeing to a one year 10.5 million dollar deal with Aroldis Chapman to bolster the bullpen, the Pirates stove would heat right back up when Robert Murray of FanSided reported that the Bucs attended a bullpen session for pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Micheal Lorenzen. While the Bucs have already made additions to their rotation this off-season, they still need to add one more arm. 

Currently, the Bucs have Mitch Keller anchoring that #1 spot. The added arms? Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales. For those of you doing the math at home, that’s three arms to fill five rotation spots. I think one of those open spots will be filled by giving Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester or Luis L Ortiz an opportunity to lay claim to a spot before Paul Skenes and Jared Jones are ready to make their debuts at PNC Park. I cannot, however, see them keeping those two spots open for the purpose of giving those guys a second look. We’ve seen that movie before and it did not end well. Let’s get back to Thor and Lorenzen,

Let’s start by eliminating Syndergaard. Could they offer a contract to Thor? Perhaps they do, but if I were a betting man I’d take the “pass” on that. Does Lorenzen make sense? Let’s take a look at Streamers Projection for 2024:

ERA 4.73, FIP 4.78, xFIP 4.78, WAR 1.2

For the back end of a teams rotation, that’s solid production. It also carries an added bonus of Lorenzen having experience in the bullpen. Considering that at least one of the guys in the opening day rotation could slide to the pen,when Skenes or Jones are ready, that is a rather nice bonus to have.

So why am I so reluctant to see the Bucs add Lorenzen? Well, let’s start with the other guys the Pirates added and their Streamer projections for the upcoming season:

Pérez- ERA 4.78, FIP 4.80, xFIP 4.94, WAR 1.4

Gonzales- ERA 4.93, FIP 4.99, xFIP 5.20, WAR 0.8

Solid production, again for the back of a rotation arms. I’m just not crazy about having three guys that all project to produce like a #5 starter.

But wait, there’s more. Martín Pérez comes on a one year deal. Marco Gonzales has one year and an option and I have to imagine that Michael Lorenzen would come with a one year deal as well. Not a lot of help beyond 2024 there.

So what’s my solution? Call the Miami Marlins, ASAP. Please!

Earlier in the week, Jason Mackey had a sit down with Robert Nutting. In that interview Nutting mentioned two things that grabbed my attention:

1-That GMBC had some room to add to the payroll. And…

2-That he didn’t want to “mortgage the future” in any trades.

How do those two points play into calling up the Marlins, you might ask? Simple answer in two parts!

1-The Miami Marlins have arms to deal.

2-Avisail Garcia.

The 33-year-old OF has an undesirable contract. I imagine the Marlins would like to get rid of said contract. See where I’m headed here? Using the old Surplus Value formula lets take a look at how that contract would affect his trade value. 

Garcia is set to make $12M per year over the next two seasons. He has a third year mutual option, but we can ignore that season as there’s no way the Bucs pick it up (at least I can’t see them picking it up) so $24M over the next two seasons is our number. His projected WAR in 2024 is -0.4. With more regression due to set in for 2025, let’s set the WAR for that year at -0.6 totaling a -1 WAR total over those seasons.

-.424 WAR Projection
-.625 WAR Projection
-1.0Total WAR
x $9MCost of a Win
– $9MTotal Value
– $24MSalary
– $33MSurplus Value

Moving Garcia and that contract while adding a possible need to the 24 roster is something I think the Marlins Front Office would be happy to do.

The arms, in no particular order, I think the Marlins could listen on are:

Jesus Luzardo. Trevor Rogers. Edward Cabrera. Max Meyer.

The Minor League Fireballer

Max Meyer – SP: ETA 2024 – FV 50 ($21M)

I don’t really consider this to be an option for the Pirates, but I wanted to cover all the bases here. Meyer has a big time arm with some big time potential, so why not him?

He’s coming off Tommy John Surgery and likely won’t be ready to open on the MLB roster. Why could he make sense? The Marlins would likely have to chip in more than just Max Meyer in this deal. Attractive as that might be, it’s just not where GMBC’s mind should be headed.

Outside the box idea? The Pirates use what they get in this deal to make a trade elsewhere, too many moving parts considering that pitchers and catchers report soon. Let’s move on.

The “electric stuff needs control” option

Edward Cabrera-SP-MLB-(SV-hard to gauge)

What makes it hard to gauge? Well, first off, he carries 5 yrs of control. One year of pre-arb and four years of arbitration. Safe to assume he’d be somewhere in the $50-$60M range.

There’s a “but” here. 

He just hasn’t been able to stay on the mound. He’s had some injury issues and that carries a bit of a red flag. Still, his stuff is “Charlie Morton” like. Electric and worth gambling on. 

The deal-

Bucs get- Avisail Garcia(and $8M) and Edward Cabrera

Marlins get- One of SS/2B Ji Hwan Bae (SV $25M)/Nick Gonzales ($2M)/Jared Triolo (SV $10M), Quinn Priester OR Luis Ortiz

This might be light, sure, but the injury concerns are real with Cabrera.  Bae or Triolo would have a surprisingly nice SV due to long-term control. Using 1 WAR per season would have Bae safely in that $20-$25M range. And it’d take a .7 WAR or so per season clip to get Triolo to a $10M SV. I wouldn’t mind the Pirates going a tad deeper here, I’m just not at all sure where I draw that line of comfortable and stupid.

A left handed Option

Trevor Rogers-SP-MLB-(SV $40-45M)

This is one of my favorite options for the Pirates. Trevor is a LHP, controlled for 3 years and, when healthy, he is fantastic. You noticed the “when healthy” note there, huh? Yeah, he too carries some risk, but again he is worth that risk. A nice three pitch mix and a nasty change up.

The deal:

Due to those health risks, I would likely offer the same package as I did for Cabrera. Would I dig a little deeper for either of these starters? Absolutely. But the health risk should have GMBC proceed with caution.

Nobody messes with the Jesus (if you get that reference we are bound to get along)

Jesús Luzardo SP-MLB (SV $68M)

This is THE guy the Bucs should push for. And frankly, I don’t get why the Marlins, a team that should compete, would be looking to move him. But his name has been out there, so here we are. 

Luzardo is a hard-throwing, left handed stud with a three pitch mix just now coming into his own. In 2023, his chase rate was in the 77th percentile in all of baseball. His whiff rate? 86th percentile. Time to reach down a little and go get a dude. The SV here is 68-33=35. That price looks nice, but an overpay is still needed.

The Deal:

Bucs get- Avisail Garcia (full contract) and Jesús Luzardo 

Marlins get- Liover Pegeuro-2B/SS -MLB (SV-?) Quinn Priester-SP-MLB(SV-?) and Bubba Chandler SP (SV $21M) OR Anthony Solometo-LHSP (SV $21M)

For Luzardo, the Pirates will have to step up and part with Liover Peguero. Is it possible that the Marlins could prefer, say, Jared Triolo? We can dream, but I would think Liover is the guy here. Peggy’s SV is hard to figure considering his control (6 yrs) combined with potential upside. He is ZIPS projected at a WAR of .8 in 128 games for 2024. Being so young, it’s easy to consider growth so using 1.5 WAR per season gets us north of $30-$40M. Control is key here.

Priester still has prospectus status. Some services could still have him as a 50 FV ($21M) but I figure him to be downgraded going into 24. He makes sense for the Marlins as he has options to go with his upside giving the Marlins some much needed depth. It’s also entirely possible Quinn is in the opening day rotation. Either way, I think the Marlins could be interested in him being in a deal.

Giving the Marlins an option on Top 100 Prospects Chandler or Solometo hurts. I get it. Both would carry a 50 FV grade on at least one service(SV $21M) but adding a guy like Jesús Luzardo? You simply have to give to get.

Conclusion-

The Bucs have held this rebuild together with duct tape and super glue. It’s time to make the team better and give the fans something to cheer for. Luzardo is the prize and the one guy they should be hot and bothered over. It makes the opening day rotation better, but more importantly, it makes the second half rotation something to drool over. Lay your eyes on this-

Mitch Keller (RHP)

Jesús Luzardo (LHP)

Paul Skenes (RHP)

Jared Jones (RHP)

Martín Pérez (LHP)

THAT is a World Series worthy rotation! Anyone have Peter Bendix’ phone number?