Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (38-50) at Seattle Mariners (45-42)

7-4-2025 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

Happy July 4 everyone and welcome to the Pittsburgh Pirates versus Seattle Mariners series preview.

Hopefully you all have a full day of grilling some burgers and hotdogs, drinking a few cold ones, responsibly, and some quality family time this Independence Day, and hey, why not take in some Buccos baseball while you’re at it.

Pittsburgh heads west to take on Seattle this July 4 weekend to take on the Mariners, riding a high wave after sweeping both the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park en route to a 6-0 home stand.

Not only did the Pirates win all six at home versus the Mets and Cardinals, but they did so in historic fashion, outscoring their opponents 43-4 over the past six matchups.

On another historic note, Mitch Keller also became the Pirates all-time strikeout leader at PNC Park in another strong start versus the Cardinals on Wednesday.

History aside, the six-game win streak has been arguably the best stretch of baseball the Pirates have played all season, and they’ll look to continue that hot streak versus Seattle, who is coming off a four-game split versus the Kansas City Royals, losing the finale 3-2 on Thursday.

Much like Pittsburgh, Seattle boasts a strong starting rotation, but it’s been Seattle’s offense that has taken a noticeable step forward this season, headlined by Cal Raleigh, who currently leads all of MLB in home runs and RBIs and third in OPS. Raleigh was named to his first MLB All-Star Game this season and will be the starting catcher for the American League, Jeff Passan announced Wednesday.

Three games are on the way at T-Mobile Park this Independence Day weekend, so lets take a look at pitching matchups, who’s hot, who’s not and more.

7/4

Pirates: LHP Bailey Falter: 6-3 / 87.0 IP / 3.62 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 74 H / 52 K / 32 BB / 9 HR

Mariners: RHP Bryan Woo: 7-4 / 101.1 IP / 2.93 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / 81 H / 96 K / 17 BB / 14 HR

7/5

Pirates: RHP Mike Burrows: 1-2 / 34.2 IP / 4.15 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 35 H / 35 K / 10 BB / 7 HR

Mariners: RHP Luis Castillo: 4-5 / 96.1 IP / 3.55 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 92 H / 79 K / 32 BB / 12 HR

7/6

Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes: 4-7 / 111 IP / 2.03 ERA / 0.92 WHIP / 72 H / 115 K / 30 BB / 5 HR

Mariners: RHP George Kirby: 2-4 / 42.2 IP / 4.85 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 41 H / 41 K / 9 BB / 7 HR

Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes

The Pirates offense has come alive over the past week, but Ke’Bryan Hayes has come alive offensively as of late, posting a .309/.333/.364 slash with 17 hits and 10 RBIs over his past 15 games.

Hayes is slugging .500 over his past seven appearances, and coming off a series in which Hayes had a hit in every game versus the Cardinals, which extended his hitting-streak to 11 games dating back to June 19, one would hope his hitting streak continues versus the Mariners this weekend.

Mariners: Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena was a massive addition for the Mariners at the 2024 trade deadline, coming over from the Tampa Bay Rays and adding a spark to the Mariners offense.

2024 didn’t go quite his way, but he’s had more success in 2025, posting 12 homers and a .791 OPS to boot, and he’s been impressive as of late, posting a .350/.379/.513 slash with four home runs and 12 RBIs over his past 15 games.

He’s coming off of a six-hit series versus the Royals over the past four days, so watch out for Arozarena’s hot streak versus a solid Pirates starting pitching staff.

Pirates: Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz is quite the enigma when it comes to baseball. On one side of the coin, he has undeniable power and superb stolen base ability, ranking second in baseball behind Jose Caballero in stolen bases, but on the other side of the coin, when Cruz struggles, he struggles.

Cruz currently leads all of baseball in strikeouts with 110, 22 of those coming in his past 15 appearances, where he’s slashed .153/.215/.271 with two homers and five RBIs. Cruz only has five walks in that span as well, highlighting a rough stretch for one of the best bats in the Pirates lineup.

Its unlikely Cruz will see a left-handed starter in this series versus Seattle, and the Mariners only feature two left-handed arms on their entire roster. Seattle surrenders a .771 OPS to left-handed hitters, so this could be a good chance for Cruz to get back on track.

Mariners: Jorge Polanco

Polanco has played the fifth most games(70) for the Mariners this year, but he has also been one of their more unproductive players as of late, posting a .215/.271/.318 slash with nine RBIs over his last 30 games.

Polanco is hitting just .208 over his last seven games, despite having four hits versus the Royals in the Mariners previous series.

Being a much better hitter at home, having an .855 OPS at home versus a .653 on the road, could bode well for Polanco this weekend, who could use a spark offensively to get back on track, and the Mariners would like to see it too.

Pirates:

Colin Holderman: 15-day IL(estimated return July 4)

Ryan Borucki: 15-day IL(estimated return July 6)

Mariners:

Colin Snider: 15-day IL(estimated return July 5)

Cade Marlowe: 60-day IL(estimated return July 5)

Gregory Santos: 60-day IL(estimated return July 24)

Bryce Miller: 15-day IL(estimated return July 25)

Notes

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates are 9-14 versus the Seattle Mariners all-time
  • The Pirates beat the Mariners 2-1 in their series in Pittsburgh in 2024, their first series win versus Seattle since 2016
  • Notable players to play for both Pittsburgh and Seattle include Rich Gossage, Jack Wilson, Richie Zisk, Carlos Santana and Jason Bay, with Rowdy Tellez being the most recent player on both teams(PIT ’24, SEA ’25)
  • The first game played at T-Mobile Park was July 15, 1999

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Starter Spotlight: The Gray Giant

7-2-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Pirates are in uncharted territory as they ride a 5-game winning streak into the final match of this home stand, hoping to finish a perfect 6-for-6. Unfortunately for them, they have to go through the Cardinals ace, Sonny Gray, who is fresh off the best start of his long career.

Entering today with an 8-2 record, 3.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 101 strikeouts to just 17 strikeouts over 93.2 innings, Gray is consistent as ever in his 13th season in Major League Baseball.

Even as his fastball has dropped a bit over the years, Gray has continued to induce chases, limit hard contact and post strong K/BB rates among the best in baseball.

Gray has faced the Bucs twice this season (see here and here) and has been dominant both times, holding the Bucs to just 1 run off 5 hits over a combined 12 innings with 1 walk and 12 strikeouts, continuing a trend against the Pirates that preceded his time in St. Louis.

Given that dominance, it would be hard to find a glimmer of hope for the Bucs so let’s look at some other outings where Gray was significantly less effective to find a potential path forward for Pittsburgh today:

On May 14th, Gray lasted just 3.2 innings against the Phillies – the start immediately following his masterful 5/7 game over the Pirates – allowing 7 runs off 8 hits and a walk with just 4 strikeouts. Now, in this game – which was the second match in a double-header for the Red Birds – Gray threw just 77 pitches with 34 of them being either a 4-seam or 2-seam fastball averaging 91.6 MPH – but 40 of those 77 pitches were out of the strike zone, including 15 of those fastballs. 

Only three of those fastballs out of the zone were swung at and only 2 of 18 total swings against those heaters resulted in whiffs, forcing him to work more in the zone with his secondary offerings and hang the occasional breaking ball.

On June 12th, Gray faced off with the Milwaukee Brewers, surrendering 6 runs off 8 hits through 4.1 innings of work with 1 walk and 4 strikeouts in the game. Once again, he leaned heavily on his fastballs with 35 total between the 4-seam and sinker.

Again, not a lot of swings-and-misses (only 4 on 19 swings against these offerings) and the trouble locating the pitches effectively forced him once again to hang breaking balls in the zone.

What can we take away from these games? Not a ton. The Phillies and Brewers are both very talented offenses who play in much more hitter-friendly parks; however, that was a caveat here that could prove critical for the Bucs finally slaying the Gray Giant, as he has struggled considerably more on the road than at home.

Additionally, his main pitch in the Maddux he threw against the Guardians last week was his sweeper – but the pitch was only working because the Cleveland hitters were hunting the fastballs.

Gray suffered his only losses of the season in the Phillies and Brewers games and those are the playbooks that this team will want to follow against Sonny today. 

Neutralize the fastballs early and force Gray to work more and more on the plate in order to induce mistakes and make him pay.

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Starter Spotlight: Beyond the Pail-lante

7-1-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pittsburgh’s offense has been rolling as they were able to shell Erick Fedde in the game yesterday after languishing against him in the previous few outings. Today’s starter, Andre Pallante, has been similarly dominant against the Pirates in his career to date.

Pallante faced the Bucs three times last season (covered here, here and here) combining 20 innings, 11 hits, 2 runs, 4 walks and 17 strikeouts over those contests. Over 34 career innings against the Pirates, he has a 2.65 ERA over 34 innings pitched.

While Pallante hasn’t been quite as bad as Fedde this season, he isn’t exactly installing a shelf for a Cy Young in his home as he enters the day with a 4.43 ERA through his first 87.1 innings pitched with 60 strikeouts to 21 walks, one of the worst K-BB rates in MLB.

One thing he has excelled at is generating ground balls. Among qualified starters, only Jose Soriano of the Angels has a higher rate of putting the ball on the ground than Pallante.

Although his ability to generate grounders has been mostly successful for him, his expected metrics – at least as compared to his peers – present some hurdles long-term.

Pallante’s xSLG of .435 is a bit higher than his already steep actual mark (.430) while his .284 BABIP is significantly lower than his career average (.298). Additionally, his hard hit rate of 45.1% and xBA of .277 indicate that he has gotten a fair bit of luck in the early going this season.

Looking at his pitch mix, Pallante primarily works off mid-90s 4-seamers high in the zone when facing lefties, dispatching the pitch 65% of the time this season to poor results as left-handed hitters have 5 home runs off the offering with an xBA of .313.

Right-handed hitters are seeing a more even distribution of the 4-seam (30.8%) with his high-80s slider (34.3%) and mid-90s sinker (25.1%) but the results against his fastball have been the same with a .333 batting average against and .550 SLG% for righties.

Universally, hitters targeting the fastballs have found success as his sinker has been hit at a .373 clip – though, the expected values for the pitch have been more kind to the Cardinals righty.

Pallante can go to the high-70s knuckle-curve to change speeds and induce swings-and-misses (40% whiff rate) but Bucs bats need to hold on the heat today, take the walks when possible and attack mistakes in the zone.

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Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – A Winning Formula?

6-30-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates brutalized the Mets this weekend.

I mean, outside of Saturday, it wasn’t close, the Pirates outpitched the Mets, out hit the Mets, and honestly, they out competed the Mets.

Time will tell if this series said more about the Pirates or the Mets, but it sure was uplifting and in a season with precious few upswings, I’ll take it, puff out my chest and for the time being enjoy what my team just did.

Lets Go!

1. A New Offensive Approach?

Rarely do I like to follow an offensive explosion with waxing poetic about something magical the team has done in the background. That said, the offense as a whole has performed better in June, in fact, they haven’t been shut out since June 3rd.

The overall approach has changed. Not drastically, but effectively.

At the very top level, the Pirates have changed to a more aggressive approach at the plate. Sounds simple, but it’s a reversal from an organizational approach that has been preached for just about 6 seasons now. Their aim is line drives, not launch angle and so far it’s played into this collection of player’s skill set to a much more repeatable degree.

They’re just words if the players don’t change when they’re up there, and this month we’ve really started to see it more and more. This doesn’t mean they all have to swing at the first pitch, it just means the overall approach no longer requires trying to milk a starter out of a game, it now requires hitting the best offering you get and not for any purpose but to hit the ball.

We’ve all heard hit it where it’s pitched, well, that’s essentially what the Pirates are now trying to do. They don’t have homerun hitters, and now as a unit they’re trying to hit like a team that needs to stack hits, as opposed to wait for 3 run homers.

They will be shut out again. They will have a series where they score 2-3 runs and fail to look competent again. But if this approach truly takes hold, they’ll be the outliers.

It’s still harder to score runs this way, but it’s not the same narrow path the team has used for most of this decade.

Lets watch it evolve.

2. Nobody Asked

I was talking to a player a couple weeks back about the overall offensive approach. I had heard that the hitting team was making some changes to their training and what not and I asked, why this change didn’t come right away with the new hitting coach? Or, why Shelton never changed it as he was a former hitting coach.

Simply put, Shelton never pushed back on it.

Shelton never changed the overall philosophy Ben Cherington likes for hitting and my assumption was always that he simply wasn’t allowed to change it, but now, man, maybe it could have been changed all along. Maybe Cherington being a lame duck has something to do with it as well, we’ve seen Kelly completely move away from the scheduled off days for players too and that as well seemed untouchable organizational ethos.

The guys liked Shelton, and some of the vets did their own thing anyway, but this kind of shocked me to hear. How can you oversee one of the worst offenses in the league for 5+ years and not try to change things?

It’s not like baseball has been reinvented here or something, they’ve simply accepted they don’t have the raw power to play the walk-walk-homer game and they’ve focused on bat to ball skills.

One guy told me it’s as close to batting practice routine as you can get. You hit the ball where it’s pitched, with a goal of line drives and you uncork your best swing when and if you get into an advantage count.

Sorry to kinda double up on point 1 and 2, but this is an important change, one that could help the team really understand what they do have, as opposed to lament what they don’t.

I should also add, one of the guys I talked to has been in AAA and MLB, the message has matriculated down too, hopefully increasing the effectiveness of call ups in the near future.

3. Esmerlyn Valdez to Altoona

If you haven’t heard the name yet, I don’t blame you, he didn’t have a lot of buzz entering the season from the great unwashed (me included).

First, he’s 21 years old and the right handed outfielder hit 22 homers last year for Bradenton along with a .226 batting average. This year for Greensboro he’s already got 20 and his average is sitting at .303.

His K rate is down, his average is up and he’s opening eyes quickly up and down the system.

I’d question the power surge a lot more as it’s occurred in Greensboro, if he were left handed, but right handed, it’s a pretty fair park and he’s hitting no doubters no matter where he plays.

Even right now, Esmerlyn isn’t one of the Pirates top 30 prospects. Crazy right?

Well, he was signed as a 16 year old back in 2021, and I mention this simply to talk to how very long it can take to turn these international signings into a prospect anyone is interested in.

His K rate is the thing to watch. This year he’s kept it hanging around 30%, and before he’s seen as a real solution, you’re probably going to want to see that creep down to 25% or so. I don’t think this kid is a guarantee to make it to MLB, but he’s young enough and performing well enough against players his own age that he’s at least doing his part.

He and Konnor Griffin will represent the Pirates in the MLB All Start Futures game this year, both richly deserved.

Omar Alfonzo will also be promoted to Altoona, as the youngsters continue to push their way closer to helping the big club.

4. Seeing Traded Players Play Well

Quinn Priester was traded to the Red Sox for Nick Yorke. Pitching overflow out, hitting prospect back in. He was since traded from the Sox to the Brewers.

Luis Ortiz was traded along with two prospect pitchers to Cleveland for Spencer Horwitz.

I keep seeing fans and even media personalities like Bob Pompeani openly claiming the Pirates need a mulligan.

These opinions aren’t based on what the Pirates have gotten back, as much as the performances of two players the Bucs moved trying to add offense to this team.

First, it’s far too early to decide the Pirates have missed here on offense. Nick Yorke isn’t here yet, but he’s young, and he will be. Spencer Horwitz is, and he’s playing great defense and the bat is steadily improving as he gets closer to playing enough to get back to well oiled.

Their futures could go in multiple directions, but my larger point is, this is exactly what we’ve asked this team to do, in fact, it’s still what we’re asking them to keep doing.

This team has plenty of pitching. It’s in no way been their issue this year, and it won’t be next year either. There’s a reason we’ve suggested moving arms for bats after all right?

So when I see things like this…

I have to ask, why does this change anything for you? Honestly, had they made neither of these trades, who’s at first base? Triolo? Gorski? Would either of them, let alone both be in the Pirates current rotation?

Let’s say the Pirates do what I’ve suggested and trade Mitch Keller to Boston for an MLB hitter and a prospect or two. Will I have to cringe every time a pitcher I very much so think is good does well?

It’s not about that. It’s about taking an area of strength, intentionally weakening it in an effort to strengthen the offensive side.

If you want to criticize the return, fine, like I said, it’s early, but you don’t have to believe. You don’t have to accept them as good until they show you good. I personally tend to leave my opinion of a deal at the point of the deal.

Meaning, 8 years from now if Ortiz is a top 10 pitcher in the league, and Horwitz has averaged out as a .260 hitter with 15 or so HR per year playing 1B, I’ll absolutely acknowledge that Ortiz was/is the better player. I’d also still point out, the team at the time and since has needed what Horwitz does more.

Even if it goes worse than that, I’ll at least give them credit for trying to balance the scales. That’s what they need to do and it’s what they needed to do.

We’re getting to the point with this trash that you almost need anyone the Pirates trade to tank, and frankly, that’s not a healthy way to see trades. If you’re getting something you value in return, and sending someone you value, why would you think either side of the deal would fail? Why would you root for it?

I liked Quinn, great kid, great attitude, really interesting stuff that needed polished. The Pirates didn’t feel they had the time to do the polishing, and frankly, they have so many other pitching options who hadn’t started their clock yet that it made sense to move him. I NEVER thought he’d fail to become an MLB pitcher, I did question how long it would take and if he’d be a starter by the time it happened.

I loved Ortiz, but I didn’t like his inconsistencies and felt his underlying stats pointed to a homerun problem that he’d have a hard time eliminating. I certainly don’t know if Horwitz will make this look smart but if you look back on what I wrote way back when, my biggest concern in the move was Michael Kennedy, not Ortiz.

If I’m making trades, I don’t need to “WIN” the trade, I need to get the element I was looking for, and be right about being able to replace what I moved.

The Pirates pitching stats tell me they’ve accomplished the second part, we’ll see about the elements they wanted to come out of it with, that takes time if you aren’t dealing for a guy with 2-3 years of MLB service time.

It’s low hanging fruit for a team that media loves to use as a pinata, and frankly, it’s disingenuous.

Fans second guess, that’s what they do, and honestly it’s what they should do, but the media is supposed to be telling the whole story, not cherry picking an excellent performance and painting the picture that’s what has been going on from the minute the guy was dealt.

5. I Know What’s Been Reported, but…

I have no doubt that reports of conversations the Pirates have had or their willingness to have discussions about just about anyone are true.

but…

They always have been with this GM. His policy is to listen to everything, period. No matter how little interest he or the team have in moving someone, the intel gained about value is important to gain.

I happen to know the Pirates had offers for Cruz back in 2020 for instance, when prospects close to the league were as close to gold as this team came.

Bryan Reynolds asked for a trade, even as the Pirates had no interest in moving him. Eventually Bob Nutting closed this deal with Bryan, important to note, Nutting himself closed the deal, because there very much so COULD have been a deal, a few were actually rather fleshed out.

Nutting is the great Satan to many of you, and as an owner and business man, I’m right there with you, but he’s also not the reason crappy trades happen. His trust in his GMs is, and right now, his GM doesn’t have it to the degree say Neal Huntington did when he dealt 3 players for Chris Archer.

We’ve heard Nutting step in and stop a David Bednar deal in the past too.

Now, the fan in me is happy to hear this. I’m very happy Reynolds is still here, and I’m happy Bednar is here, even as I call for trading him this year.

My worry there is, when you don’t spend and you start making decisions your GM isn’t on board with entirely, are you actually allowing him to do the job the way he wanted to?

Like, again, this GM has proven in my mind what Bob did was probably better, but what if he had been allowed to go through with a Reynolds deal and a Bednar deal, is it conceivably possible they have a better offense right now? How about bullpen? Again, the track record of this GM tells me I might have an extra 2B with a 35% K rate in AAA and someone I’m still waiting to break out playing outfield 5 times a week. But in my mind, you can’t ask a GM to not spend, and then stick your finger in the pie when it comes to building a roster.

In fact, I wonder if at times, he’s forced his GM to swallow something he overruled an it makes dismissing them all the harder. Maybe Cherington’s existence here is less about loyalty or being hard to do in season and more about rightly being told he got in the way and changed the plan enough to change the vision.

Hey, maybe that’s a different point, but it’s flowing right now, so just go with it while I indelicately divert back to the original subject.

The point is, I can see Bob Nutting not feeling like letting this GM make a big move to trade out a guy he was just convinced to extend as something he’d like to let happen. Like, maybe the next GM could talk him into it, but I just have a feeling, the biggest potential deal at this deadline might be a rental.

You know what I want to do, I just told you yesterday. I’m just not of the belief this GM is going to be given enough rope to fundamentally change the deck of cards they’re working with at this deadline.

I can honestly say, Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Bubba Chandler, Konnor Griffin aren’t being traded. Reynolds has a great contract for what he does, Skenes is Skenes, Cruz has too much talent and too much control and the ONLY big power they have. Chandler and Griffin are just too good.

I have my doubts he’ll allow Keller or Bednar, but I also believe a package could be really hard to pass on, and even he knows ball enough to get it if explained correctly.

Hayes, I know Bob loves personally, as does everyone in the org, but I never thought he’d be tradable after these last couple seasons, so frankly, I haven’t thought it through.

It feels to me like the climate and situation probably add up to a rental conga line out the door, with an outside shot at a big vet trade from a very select few.

Just my opinion. Based on some things I think are pretty well established. We’ll see.

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Starter Spotlight: Erick The Red Bird

6-30-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Following a series sweep, the Pirates welcome the division-rival St. Louis Cardinals to town as they once again will face Erick Fedde, who enters the day with a 3-7 record and 4.11 ERA through 87.2 innings pitched.

While the 4.11 ERA isn’t necessarily awful on its face, Fedde has gotten a bit of luck as his K-BB% of 5.1% is the 2nd worst among all qualified starters, as his his xFIP at 5.07.

We covered Fedde previously ahead of his start against Pittsburgh on April 9, before he threw six no-hit innings, as well as last year when he faced the Bucs on September 19, tossing six frames of one-run ball.

So why is one of the worst pitchers in MLB so hard for the Pirates to figure out?

Let’s look at what happened last time he faced the Bucs:

Fedde threw 88 pitches with 14 whiffs, 4 walks and 2 strikeouts. He utilized the sinker, cutter and sweeper against righties while using the sinker, cutter and changeup when facing lefties.

Only 39 of his 88 pitches were in the strike zone, leading to Bucs batters chasing 16 of 49 would-be balls – a 32.7% chase rate that is significantly higher than his 24.8% mark on the year.

Basically, the failures against Fedde have been self-inflicted for the Pirates and a more patient approach at the plate should provide better results.

Lefties should focus on his cutter, which he has been prone to hang middle of the plate and against which lefties are batting .362 and slugging .638.

Metrics vs. LHH

Right handed hitters, by contrast, should target Fedde’s sinker – which he goes to in these situations 44.7% of the time. Opposing righties are batting .267 against the pitch (expected batting average is .306) with an average exit velocity of 95 MPH.

Metrics vs. RHH

He doesn’t throw hard and doesn’t fool many hitters. He rates at or near the bottom of the league in batting average against, average exit velocity and whiff rates so opponents are making contact with the ball consistently, hitting it hard and finding grass.

If other teams can do it, maybe this resurgent Pirates team can too.

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Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (47-38) at Pittsburgh Pirates (35-50)

6-30-2025 – By Drew Cagle – @_dcagle on X

Spirits are high on the North Shore after a three-game drubbing of the New York Mets inside PNC Park. The Pirates brought their A game on the mound and at the plate, outscoring the team from the Big Apple 30-4 en route to a sweep.

Now, it’s back to division play for a battle with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Redbirds may be seen as overachievers, but currently hold the final National League wild card spot and are just 2.5 games back in the division.

Both teams enter the series off of a sweep against a playoff contender. St. Louis kicked off their 9-game road trip with a convincing sweep of the Cleveland Guardians. They’ve won 11 of their last 15, beating the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs in that span.

In the last meeting, the Cardinals swept the Buccos out of Busch Stadium in what proved to be Derek Shelton’s final series as manager. Pittsburgh was held to 4 runs in 3 games, and St. Louis improved to 19-19.

6/30

Cardinals: RHP Erick Fedde – 87.2 IP, 3-7, 57 K/38 BB, 4.11 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Pirates: LHP Andrew Heaney – 86.1 IP, 3-7, 64 K/30 BB, 4.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

7/1

Cardinals: RHP Andre Pallante – 87.1 IP, 5-4, 60 K/29 BB, 4.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes – 106.0 IP, 4-7, 110 K/29 BB, 2.12 ERA, 0.91 WHIP

7/2

Cardinals: RHP Sonny Gray – 93.2 IP, 8-2, 101 K/17 BB, 3.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

Pirates: RHP Mitch Keller – 99.1 IP, 2-10, 77 K/25 BB, 3.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Cardinals: Sonny Gray has turned the clock back to his early days of dominance for the Oakland Athletics. Last time out, he tossed a dominant complete game against the Guardians, striking out 11 and allowing a single hit. Sporting a career ERA of 1.47 at PNC Park in 3 starts, he’ll be looking to continue his success. Of note, fellow Vanderbilt product Bryan Reynolds has hit .292 with 3 home runs against Gray in his career.

Pirates: He got off to a slow start this season, but Ke’Bryan Hayes has kicked it into overdrive lately. Along with his typical Gold Glove defense (league-leading 2.91 range factor), the bat has heated up. After an 8-game hitting streak, his batting average has risen to a respectable .246. On Sunday, he turned in a 3-for-5 day with 2 RBIs.

Cardinals: On-field drama aside, this hasn’t been a banner season for catcher Willson Contreras at the plate. His .249 average is down from last season’s .262, his 1.4 WAR is the lowest it’s been since 2020, and he hasn’t made up for it with stellar fielding behind the dish. He was 2-for-4 with an RBI double on Sunday in Cleveland, but is still looking to hit his stride.

Pirates: Jared Triolo was the only Pirates starter who didn’t join in the hit parade on Sunday afternoon against the Mets. He’s just 2 for his last 26 at the plate (.076 average) in sporatic playing time. It’s likely that he’s used as a defensive replacement or spot starter in this series, but let’s hope seeing a division rival helps him out.

Cardinals: Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Zack Thompson

Walker started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Saturday. He has been on the 10-day IL due to an appendicitis.

Pirates: Colin Holderman, Johan Oviedo, Ryan Borucki, Endy Rodriguez

Holderman (thumb injury) started his rehab assignment with the Bradenton Marauders at A-ball last Friday.

Notes

  • St. Louis leads the season series 4-2. Pittsburgh took 2 of 3 in their first homestand of the season, but the Cardinals punched back with a sweep just a month later.
  • The Cardinals’ once-struggling pitching staff has held the Pirates to 5 or fewer runs in all but one meeting.
  • PNC Park has been friendly to the Buccos under Don Kelly, to the tune of a 16-9 record. St. Louis sports a middling 21-21 road record on the year.
  • Pittsburgh is in a good spot to keep the positive vibes going in this series. Game 1 looks pretty even pitching-wise, Paul Skenes starts in Game 2, and then St. Louis has the edge in Game 3. On paper, Monday night’s contest is the swing game, but short series have a weird way of working out sometimes.

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Starter Spotlight: Frankie Say Relax

6-29-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With the potential for a rare sweep against the Mets today, the Pirates will look to continue riding this torrid offense against veteran Frankie Montas.

Montas is in his 11th season with his 6th MLB team and, outside of a 5.5 year stretch with the Athletics, has been frequently on the move.

Signed as an amateur free agent by the Boston Red Sox in 2009, Montas was dealt to the Chicago White Sox in 2013 as part of a 3-team trade, making his major league debut with the club in 2015.

He was then shipped to the Dodgers in another 3-team trade that offseason before another move sent him to the A’s in August of 2016.

Montas found success with Oakland, posting a 3.70 ERA over parts of six seasons with the club and finishing 6th in Cy Young voting following the 2021 campaign.

He was traded two more times though, getting sent to the New York Yankees in 2022 and then, after signing a one-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds ahead of the 2024 season, was traded to the Brewers ahead of the July deadline before signing a 2-year, $34M deal with the Mets this past offseason.

Coming off a delayed start to his season as a result of high-grade lat strain suffered during spring training, he is looking to get comfortable with his new club.

The 32-year old right-hander has a fastball-heavy arsenal with both his 4-seam and sinker posting above average velocity as they both sit in the mid-90s.

He adds in a low-90s cutter, a mid-80s slider/sweeper and splitter.

In his first action with the Mets, he blanked the Braves over 5 innings of 3-hit ball, generating a surprising 50% whiff rate on his 4-seamer.

Despite pitching for two divisional opponents in 2024, Montas has not faced the Pirates since a May 5, 2019 so not a ton of experience against today’s starter, though Adam Frazier went 1-3 with a double against him in that outing.

Walks have been a recurring issue for Montas with 66 free passes over 150.2 innings last year and 3 in his game against the Braves last week.

Hitters should expect a heavy dose of 4-seamers up in the zone and 2-seamers down running glove-side. They will need to be ready to time up the velocity while staying on the breaking balls which he works low in the zone.

He struggled in his rehab starts with a 12.05 ERA through 18.2 innings so maybe the strong first game with the Mets was a blip, or maybe these numbers were a result of him going through his late spring training regimen to get into regular season form.

Either way, the Pirates need to stay calm, cool, collected and ready to break out the brooms this afternoon.

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The Path Forward for this Pittsburgh Pirates Team

6-29-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I’ve tried to just let everyone go this year for the most part. Pirates fans came into this season mad, and sometimes it’s best to just let the flames die down a bit before tying to refocus.

I mean, I’ve talked baseball and of course told you what I see as out of bounds, like trading Paul Skenes or whatever, but as the National Media sharks start to circle and the all or nothing mentality takes over, I think I have to simply say this is going too far now.

This team isn’t going to go into another rebuild.

I know, you’ve heard “rumors”. I put that in quotes because you really haven’t heard anything like a rumor. You’ve heard that the Pirates have talked to another team. Then you’ve heard that they’ll talk about just about anyone.

That’s all true, but that doesn’t mean they’re open to moving EVERYONE.

This team is 16 games under .500 so leaving things as they are certainly isn’t in play either. Let’s talk this thing through, I think if you think about it with me it might ease your mind about where things are headed.

I’m going to start by talking about some of the conditions, and I’m going to outline 2 different “plans” for moving forward I could see going.

Is Everyone Available?

No. Not everybody is available, but as I say every year, there are only 5-10 teams who feel they have no chance to make a Wild Card at least in 2025, so the pressure to surrender talent is going to always be amped up for those 5-10 teams. The Pirates are of course one of them.

Because Ben Cherington doesn’t like signing free agents to multi-year deals, every single year they have a host of “rentals” for sale. That’s no different this year, and as always they come with varying degrees of value both to the team and to the league.

Paul Skenes isn’t going to be discussed, mostly because simply trying to come up with his value on the market is next to impossible. It’d be like Jeff Bezos putting Amazon up for sale, he might come up with a value, but there also probably isn’t anyone out there who can afford it, and his new wife might be upset if he were to just decide to entirely change their lives.

Aside from him and Andrew McCutchen, I can see the Pirates having a conversation but this is a team looking to add offense, not subtract it.

Taking phone calls, making phone calls, gaining an understanding of what gets offered for certain talents, that’s stuff a team should do 16 games under or over frankly.

So yeah, everyone is available, but that in no way means EVERYONE is going. Their record absolutely shows change is needed, but let’s keep going, I think I’ll make the case that it doesn’t need to be back to square 1. Paul Skenes being here ensures even Bob will know better.

What Will They Allow Cherington to Do?

This is the most interesting question if you ask me.

The draft that so many seem to focus on as it comes to worrying about his influence, well, honestly, you could probably make this pick. With the 6th pick, the Pirates will either select a College pitcher or a High school short stop.

I don’t think you’ll see a college hitter go in the top 10 this year.

The same scouting department that was replaced before last year will make the recommendation this year and I don’t know about you, I like what they picked up last year in the draft, and how they’ve performed early on.

Point is, the last thing I’m worried about with keeping Cherington around right now is the draft, I think they’ll do fine.

What I worry about is him making big trades. Things that effect this team and the path forward for years to come.

That’s why on the surface I feel we’re going to see a lot of rental movement, but I see Bob Nutting pumping the brakes on anything too major.

Like Jason Mackey just said on the Fan the other day, it’s very hard to fathom Cherington returning for another season. I feel this way too, and I can’t see Bob Nutting allowing him to take cards out of the deck for the next hire. At least not too many to recover from.

Despite popular belief, Nutting is not ready to burn it down, just unhappy with how things have progressed as opposed to believing it hasn’t progressed at all.

Why Keep Cherington at All Then?

That’s the big question. What’s the point of keeping a guy you probably don’t trust moving forward? Bob Nutting has said it would be too disruptive to move on in-season. I guess I can see that, but if he’s on his way out and you don’t really want him making any far reaching changes, why not just move on?

Hey, I didn’t say Nutting made sense did I? Changes need to be made and I’d hate to miss an opportunity while waiting for his replacement.

To be completely fair, I probably don’t want an interim GM making those types of deals either. This is kinda why I made a bigger deal of what I thought was a need to fire the GM last offseason and not during this one.

This situation is and will continue to paralyze this franchise.

Now, all that stuff being accepted and acknowledged, lets move on to what I see as the 2 best paths forward for this club given that they’ve chosen to do what they’ve done.

Path Number 1: Reset, Refresh, Recommit

Forget what the Pirates will do, these two options are completely mine. They’re what I would do, not what I think they’ll do.

First, I don’t think the Pirates can afford to trade all of their expiring contract guys, and the main reason is the innings. If they were to move Dennis Santana, David Bednar, and Caleb Ferguson, might leave them in a situation where they have to fill the bullpen with waiver claims, and frankly, for my plan, I’m not looking to feel like the team is somehow worse than they were to make me want to make deals in the first place. This is a facelift, not a face transplant.

I’d pick one or two of them to move. David Bednar is the most valuable, so to me he’s the one that makes the most sense to make sure I’ve moved.

They have some big options they could move, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, and yes, I think some of these have merit. Before the season I suggested if you could find a taker for Hayes you take it. Yeah, you get out of his contract, but that’s not the real reason to do it, instead it’s to make sure you try to get some offense from the 3B position. Specifically more power.

I think it’s hard to imagine Hayes returning his own replacement, so you either are accepting that Triolo, Nunez, Yorke, types can take it over and give you more offense or, you’re accepting you need to go outside and get someone. If you aren’t going to get someone better, you might just want to keep Hayes. If you allot what you spend for Hayes, it’s probably not going to be enough to upgrade the position on the market, he’s cheap.

Keller is interesting because of how much young pitching the Pirates have coming and he does make consequential money. Again, I’m not trying to dump his salary per se, but I am looking to repurpose his dollars into an extension for either Cruz or Skenes. You could also repurpose his salary into that replacement for Hayes I just talked about needing to invest in. He could also return a 3B, SS or LF option, they need all three and what they get back should be MLB ready, at least one component has to be.

If I could swing it, these are the 3 biggest pieces I move this year. Hayes, Keller and Bednar. I’ll package them together, sell them separately, whatever it takes. But if I move all three of these pieces, I expect to return 2 or 3 RIGHT NOW solutions for this roster.

There’s no feasible way to recover and get the arrow pointed up if you move on from 3 players of starting caliber, and yes, Hayes is that too, unless you immediately recoup actual players who you’ll use from the jump. They can grab some prospects in the process, but the main return needs to improve two positions immediately.

I move as many of the rentals aside from those bullpen guys as I can, for just about whatever I can get. If only to force my own hand to bring up the Billy Cook, Nick Yorke, Liover Peguero, Jack Suwinski types and find out if they are or aren’t going to help me.

The extra money I’ve saved from the moves, I use for those extensions or extension I proposed, but if neither are interested, I use it to fill the hole I didn’t get filled from the deals themselves.

More than anything, I trust that Cruz, Reynolds, Gonzales, Horwitz, Davis types all either get back to being themselves, or improve to the point the team will improve behind them.

And finally, I take the offseason very seriously this time. Whatever I can do or have to do to make sure I don’t enter the season with any major holes and some more power, that’s what I’m doing.

Get a new GM in here and let them shuffle, but don’t let them reset the clock. The fans won’t tolerate it, and despite popular belief, neither will the owner.

The truth here is baked into Paul Skenes. You have until 2030, and if you decide to trade off for prospects, I think you’re looking at 2028 or so before they’re becoming MLB regulars with expectation. If you don’t sell off as I’m suggesting here, your prospects come up when ready and improve the team around the edges as opposed to being relied on to be special from the jump.

Path Number 2: Demolish and Start Over

I would not do this. I don’t think it’s necessary first off, and second, you might as well trade Paul Skenes if you do. Since Skenes is the real reason we’re claiming the team should be ready, it would be the opposite of progress.

Yeah, you could return a bunch of guys, but even after firing Cherington, you’ll still be relying on a development system you’ve never believed in to quickly turn around a bunch of kids and win. Hey, maybe they’ll hire a genius, that’s still not a typical occurrence.

I look no farther than the Nationals, mainly because trading Juan Soto years ago is about as close as you can come to an equivalent for trading Skenes, and bluntly, the return they got is probably a bit light.

They have a good young core, but its already been a couple years and they’re already seeing they don’t have enough. There is room for these guys to improve, and they will, but it’ll be 4-5 years from the time they pulled that trade off to the point where they truly compete again.

Just in time to be trying to figure out how to lock up Gore, Abrams and Wood.

The Pirates can’t do this again, because Paul Skenes is the purpose for doing it to begin with. The Pirates won the lottery and instead of taking the winnings, this method would be like trading the winning ticket for 20,000 scratch offs. You won, and now instead of winning, you want to play again.

The only way you could take this path would be to sell off everything and lock up Skenes for like 10 years, but honestly, I doubt he’d buy into the plan.

In other words, maybe stop thinking this is going to be some huge dump deadline, I see no real path forward that’s viable beyond making some hitting vs pitching balancing moves and trying to fill the most obvious holes with more power.

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Starter Spotlight: Blackburn After Reading

6-28-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After an offensive outburst to open the series, the Pirates will look to continue the hot hitting against long-time Athletics arm, Paul Blackburn, who has been thrust back into the Mets rotation as injuries to starters pile up.

Acquired from the A’s at last year’s trade deadline, Blackburn has only appeared in five games this season after a delayed start to his year due to surgery to repair a spinal fluid leak this past offseason. 

His first outing was a strong 5 innings of shutout ball against the Dodgers but, over his next four games, he pitched 12.2 innings and allowed 14 runs (13 earned) off 21 hits with 6 walks and just 10 strikeouts.

Blackburn has yet to throw more than 120 major league innings in a season despite this being his 9th year in the bigs, struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness over his time on the west coast, pitching 446 total innings with a career ERA of 4.92.

He isn’t going to blow opponents away but what Blackburn lacks in velocity, he makes up for with a varied pitch mix – with limited success.

His fastballs sit in the low-90s while he adds a sweeper and curve in the low-80s with a mid-80s changeup.

He will use a sweeper/sinker approach when facing righties while utilizing a cutter/curve/change mix when lefties step in the box.

Lefties have had success against both his cutter (.417 batting average) and changeup .364) and, while batting only .222 against his curve, are slugging .556 against the offering.

Right-handed hitters should target his sinker, which he offers nearly a third of the time (32.1%) and against which they are hitting .538 and slugging .923.

He has, overall, been a fairly ineffective pitcher over his tenure with the Mets as he has compiled a 5.79 ERA through a total of 42 innings with 34 strikeouts to 14 walks.

Pick your pitch to target, spit on junk out of the zone and capitalize when he makes mistakes.

Starter Spotlight: Ew, David!

6-27-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Back home in Pittsburgh, the Pirates welcome the NL East-leading Mets and lefty David Peterson, who enters with a strong 2.98 ERA through his first 90.2 innings pitched over his first 15 starts of the season.

The Bucs last faced Peterson on May 12, where he stifled the Pirates through 6 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball with 3 walks and 7 strikeouts but he is coming off his worst outing of the season as he allowed 5 runs through just 4 innings against the Phillies.

We covered Peterson’s overall profile previously so this time, we are going to focus on his struggles outside of Citi Field.

When facing Peterson on their home turf, opposing hitters have attacked Peterson to the tune of a .715 OPS compared to .595 OPS when Peterson pitches first.

Additionally, Peterson’s home FIP (2.58) is significantly lower than his away mark (4.29) with nearly 30 points difference in BABIP (.303 at home and .274 away) – both of which would suggest that, even with the poor splits, it probably should be even worse.

He is still struggling after the first time through the order, seeing his opponent batting average jump from .180 first time through to .266 in the second trek and .291 the third time batters see him.

In the aforementioned Phillies game, Peterson used a fastball and slider-heavy combo which generated a combined 4 whiffs on 22 swings between the sinker, 4-seam and slider. He hung a good amount of those pitches and good hitters will execute against mistakes like these.

The Pirates are not great at capitalizing against mistakes – especially when facing lefties, against whom they are slashing .215/.278/.328 on the season as a team. Peterson is going to hammer the strike zone with low-90s heat while dropping the mid-80s slider down to get whiffs with his main putaway pitch.

Look to target heat as opposing righties are batting .271 against the 2-seam and .288 when facing the 4-seam fastball. If he hangs pitches like he did in his last start, the team has at least a chance.

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