Bullpen Full of Bullets

1-25-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Relievers are a “dime a dozen.” You’ve heard it. We’ve heard it. It’s a volatile role which has a lot of turnover. That said, strong bullpens have led the winning charge for Pirates teams during the 2013-15 playoff runs. 

Recent losing years have included some rough names coming out of the bullpen. Dovydas Neverauskas ring any bells? 

Miguel del Pozo

Luis Oviedo

No? Well, then you’re all the better for it.

But that is changing with the current string of relief pitchers the Pirates have acquired via trade or developed within their system and it’s what I want to break down for you today.

David Bednar (Closer)

I couldn’t start this list without doing Bednar first. I mean, he’s the new Pittsburgh Kid! Did you know his bobblehead plays ‘Renegade?’ But put aside that he drinks IC Lights while tailgating before Steelers game or is present at essentially EVERY Pirates community event, because none of that matters if he can’t pitch like he does. And this dude can PITCH!

That is the full workload for Bednar over the past 3 seasons since being acquired via trade from the San Diego Padres – keeping in mind that he spent nearly all of 2021 as setup man for Richard Rodriguez so all but 3 of those saves are from the past 2 years.

Among all relievers with at least 60 innings pitched last year, Bednar is ranked 6th in ERA (2.00), 4th in FIP (2.53), 3rd in fWAR (2.3) and tied for 2nd in saves (39). All that while posting a K% of 28.9% and a BB% of just 7.6%. No one else in baseball had a higher K rate and a lower walk number.

Again, relievers are volatile and Bednar could just as easily fall apart as he could keep it together but, for the sake of the city he loves and gets to pitch in front of every year, I think he’ll fight tooth and nail to be the best Yinzer he can until his arm basically falls off.

Aroldis Chapman (Setup)

When news broke that the Pirates acquired 2-time World Series Champ and noted “bad dude” Aroldis Chapman, my first thought was surprise but everything after that was pure elation:

I mean, just LOOK at these lines! Chapman may be turning 36 next month but the Cuban Missile can still deal, touching 101 at times during the 2023 season. 

Yes, there’s some bad blood with Chapman, mostly among some ardent fans remembering the times he used that fastball for a little chin music against the Bucs – specifically, against Cutch. But that’s water under the bridge. 

He’s also had his own off-field issues, which I won’t go into – though it makes this headline an unfortunate choice. He’s served his time regarding the matter. The question is, can he still pitch? And the answer is a resounding YES!

In 58.1 innings pitched between the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers, Chapman posted a 3.09 ERA, 2.84 xERA and 2.52 FIP. His control is an issue as he walked 14.5% of batters faced but his K% was 2nd best in baseball at 41.4%, behind just the Orioles closer, Felix Bautista (46.4%) among qualified relievers.

When you have one of the best closers in baseball being setup by a guy who could be closing games for at least half the teams in baseball, you have an embarrassment of riches.

Colin Holderman (Setup)

Heading into the off-season, Holderman seemed set for the 8th inning role. And, it’s still possible Shelton mixes and matches to move him around in the back-end of this bullpen.

His fastball sits 98 with movement and can reach triple digits while his sweeper has nasty movement that resulted in opponents hitting just .185 against the pitch in 2023. 

He’s also the only member of the team to have thrown an immaculate inning

His stuff is VERY good and he’s maybe the third best option out of the pen. He had some poor luck last year, resulting in a 3.86 ERA despite a 3.29 FIP. His sinker results in a high ground ball rate and his ability to avoid barrels (5%), leading him to tie for the 8th most holds (27) in MLB last season.

Dauri Moreta (MRP)

Moreta was acquired from the rival Cincinnati Reds last offseason for infielder Kevin Newman. Newman is no longer in Cincinnati but Moreta has THRIVED since leaving the hitter-friendly terrain of Great American Ball Park. A big key to his success has been his slider, which moves very differently from a normal slider.

Moreta had a strong start last season working in some high-leverage, high-pressure situations early and often. He usually came into close games with men on base. Over the course of the year, Moreta was tasked with 33 inherited runners and allowed just 8 to reach home. In high-leverage situations, opponents posted a .160/.290/.200 triple slash against him.

 You can’t just eliminate a month or two from a pitcher’s season but, outside of June (9.00 ERA in 10 innings) and August (11.57 ERA in 4.2 innings), Moreta was ELITE. His final line on the season: 3.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 58 innings, a 31.8% K rate and opponents batting average of just .184.

And the best part is his underlying metrics (3.04 xERA and 2.93 FIP) indicate that Money Moreta could be even better in 2024.

Carmen Mlodzinski (MRP)

A 2020 Comp A round pick, Mlodzinski posted a 2.25 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 36 innings pitched with 34 strikeouts and 18 walks over 35 games. 

He only recently transitioned from starting to relief and has some red flags with his control (30 walks over 62.2 innings pitched between minors/majors in 2023) but also an excellent ability to avoid barrels (4%).

He’s young and, although there is room for improvement, there’s a good amount to like with Mlodzinski.

Ryan Borucki (MRP)

Borucki was a surprise success in the bullpen last year, posting career best ERA (2.45), xERA (3.21), and BB% (2.6). He also saw his average exit velocity drop from 88.1 in 2022 to 85.7 this past year. His 0.74 WHIP was the best among all relievers with at least 40 innings pitched.

While the southpaw posted strong stats across the board, his BABIP of .206 is well below his career average of .273 and could indicate some regression on the horizon, though he likely will be an important piece out of the pen. 

Who Else?

There are a number of other options who could play a part out of the bullpen this upcoming season as the team likely has another single-inning arm and a long-relief man added to this group.

2022 Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez had a 2.25 ERA through the end of May, pitching 24 innings with 23 strikeouts to 4 walks. 

Through the rest of the season, however, the young lefty posted a 7.43 ERA over 26.2 innings allowing 7 home runs and 18 walks in that span while striking out 39. 

Kid still has some REALLY good stuff, especially when you consider that he didn’t pitch above Double-A prior to this past season, but maybe he starts the year at Indianapolis to refine his stuff and build up to withstand a full season in the bigs.

Another option is Colin Selby, whose 9.00 ERA in 24 innings obviously looks bad. His opponents BABIP of .385 despite a solid groundball rate of 49.3% gives reason to believe he could perform better given a larger sample size. His xERA of 5.52, while still poor, would provide a big improvement while his FIP of 4.80 gets him closer to respectable production. 

The key to getting better than that would come down to avoiding barrels, something Selby was unable to do in 23. Barrel rate of 10.1%, line drive rate of 24.6% and hard hit rate of 42% are all very poor. 

His sinker wasn’t working for him in 2023, and he might benefit from going with a slider-heavy arsenal a la Moreta. Batters hit .395 against the sinker vs .192 against his slider. Ditching, or at least minimizing the use of, his less-than options will help him grow and develop as a solid arm out of the pen.

Kyle Nicolas similarly had a rough start to his MLB career, allowing 6 runs in his debut appearance against the Chicago Cubs while retiring just one batter. He pitched in 3 games after that last season allowing just 1 run over 5 innings, showing why he was, and still technically is, a top 30 prospect in the system.

Like Mlodzinski, walks are an issue with Nicolas (his BB/9 has risen every year, reaching 4.74 between AA/AAA in 2023) but he’s now shown the ability to rebound from a bad MLB outing, clearly, and can work multiple innings in relief.

Basically, there are a number of intriguing options. And this hasn’t even gotten into some names who might fall short of rotation, like Bailey Falter and Roansy Contreras

Or the Non-Roster Invitees in Ben Heller, Hunter Stratton and Ryder Ryan.

If one of them gets added to the 40-man roster this spring, I will write about them. But, until then, it’s not yet worth the key strokes.

So What?

The Pirates have an embarrassment of riches in their bullpen when, over the past few years, they have just been an embarrassment.

And yes, solid relievers are a luxury to most teams. There are still some holes that we, as fans, hope the team patches before the Pirates head to Miami for game 1 on March 28th. 

That said, when you’re looking to contend for your first playoff appearance in 9 years, it doesn’t hurt to have more than a few bullets in the chamber. 

If you want to hear more about this bullpen, check out the latest episode of 412 Double Play Podcast.

If Henry Davis fails at the catching position, what happens?

01/22/24 By Ethan Smith / @mvp_EtHaN

Some of the biggest news of the Pittsburgh Pirates off-season was news none of us wanted to hear, as news broke that Endy Rodriguez would be sidelined for the entirety of the 2024 season after having reconstructive surgery on his UCL, repairing his flexor tendon.

Derek Shelton expressed, even before Endy’s injury came to light, that the Pirates other top catching prospect and former number one overall pick Henry Davis would be thrust into the a catching role in 2024, a spot Rodriguez occupied for most of 2023 after the departure of Austin Hedges. After the injury announcement, it became a bit more.

Rodriguez occupied that spot mainly due to being more defensively inclined then Davis at the time, with Davis’s struggles defensively pushing him to the corner outfield and designated hitter for his debut campaign, struggling to find footing defensively in the outfield as well.

When a general manager drafts a catcher as high as Davis, the tools have to obviously be there for the selection to be made, and he showed them at Louisville, having a career 1.001 OPS with the Cardinals. He continued that success in the minors, becoming one of the fastest rising first overall picks in recent MLB history.

The questions about his bat are still there of course considering he’s only seen 225 career MLB at bats and hit a measly .213 with a .653 OPS last season, but the bigger question is this, can Davis play the catcher position?

We only saw two Major League innings from Davis behind the plate last season, and he’s already been outspoken about bulking up physically and working in Bradenton to improve defensively.

One part of Davis’s defensive game that we have nothing to worry about is his arm talent, ranking in the 98th percentile in all of baseball in arm strength last season, which you would expect to a plus pop time at catcher, something Davis has always done well with, grading out at a 70 in arm talent out of the draft.

Davis also did well in throwing out opposing baserunners in 35 games in the minors last year, throwing out 16.7% of opposing runners, which ranked better than Jason Delay, who had a 10% success rate at nabbing opposing baserunners.

Where things get sticky with Davis is his blocking and pitch framing, both areas of importance to the Pirates brass.

He can improve in both areas for sure and again, has been working on those areas of improvement in Bradenton, while also working with the staff and potential call-up candidates, most notably Paul Skenes.

That’s a big deal for Davis, seeing as he’s still developing on how to handle a pitching staff as well as scouting opposing hitters, all things young catchers have to learn with time at the big league level.

There’s no doubt Davis will put in the work, he’s just that kind of player, and with the arm talent already being a plus and the potential of his framing and blocking improving, he could play his way into being the full-time catcher moving forward.

But, what if he doesn’t? With Rodriguez returning in 2025, the pressure is on for Davis to figure it out, and that includes hitting the baseball as well and being the player the Pirates projected he could be when he was drafted.

His offensive outputs last year won’t cut it, and if he does continue to struggle defensively upon Rodriguez’s return in 2025, do you move him the outfield again?

A ton of emphasis goes towards his defensive improvements, but he has to hit the baseball too folks. FanGraphs highlights his strikeout rate, pull-happy tendency and ground ball rate as areas of improvement, also being adamant that he needs to be more aggressive with hitter friendly pitches rather than chasing stuff that wouldn’t result in anything positive.

You have to consider these factors. It could be a potential doomsday scenario for Davis if defensively, he doesn’t improve and if his offense doesn’t take a noticeable step forward. The outfield has become loaded as well, with the introductions of Edward Olivares and Gilberto Celestino to the room and the potential that Ji-hwan Bae could be a more permanent outfielder along with potential debuts from Matt Gorski and Matt Fraizer, not including what’s already there.

That’s why the emphasis on his bat may be as important as his defense improvements, because he’s going to have to show the Pirates he’s worthy of a spot in the lineup even with his potential defensive woes.

Now the two sides are clear here. If the work he’s put in this off-season shows positively at catcher, improving pitch framing, blocking and using his strong arm, then Davis should be fine. If the bat improves to at least an average area for a catcher, then he’s more than fine because he’d be in the infancy of becoming a strong two-way catcher.

On the flip side, if the defense continues to be an issue, you have to find somewhere to put him defensively or make him a DH exclusively, a spot currently taken up by likely Rowdy Tellez and Andrew McCutchen, and if Cutch returns in 2025, then what?

Davis has the most to gain, or the most to lose in 2024. He’s thrust into the role as the Pirates catcher. He has the keys, he just has to drive and not blow a tire. If he gets to his destination, folks, you’ll be raving over him. If his tire blows out, the Pirates get into a very sticky situation, especially with him being a former number one pick.

Keep you eyes on Davis all season. Watch his maturation, I expect it, but if he doesn’t improve, he’s not all that safe just because of where he was selected in the draft. I don’t want to call it boom or bust considering this will be his first full season at the bigs, but a ton of pressure is on him to perform, and these are the decisions the Pirates are going to make for awhile with the construction of the roster.

It’s on Henry, and ultimately, his play, and that’s how it should be.

Do the Pittsburgh Pirates Have a Potential Power Surge in 2024

01/22/24 Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN; Follow the site @Steel_Pirates
Photo courtesy of Eddie Provident

There is no doubt the home run ball has become more and more important in baseball over its storied history.

In 1992, the last time the Pirates had a winning season before 2013, all of baseball hit 3,038 homers. In 2013, the number spiked to 4,661, and since 2013, there have been well over 4,000 home runs hit by all of baseball every season since, excluding 2020 of course.

Now that I got that out of the way to tell you something absolutely obvious, why does this pertain to the Pittsburgh Pirates and the title of this article?

It doesn’t take rocket science if you’ve watched the Pirates over the past three seasons to know they haven’t been a plus-power or home run team, but you can also say in the same light that they’ve improved over the past three years in that department as well.

Since 2021, the Pirates have ranked 30th, 18th and 28th in home runs in all of baseball, going over 150 as a club in the past two seasons. They ranked 30th, 27th and 24th in slugging in those three seasons as well, so there has been improvement there as far as slugging is concerned.

So, after hearing that the Pirates have ranked in the bottom third of the league in slugging and two of the past three seasons in home runs, you may be asking, “Ethan, why should we expect to see a power surge from this team in 2024?”

For starters, the Pirates have some players, young and veterans, with plus-power. Bryan Reynolds has eclipsed 20-plus home runs in each of the past three seasons, the only player to do so on the team. Jack Suwinski joined the 20-plus home run club last year, leading the team with 26, while 2023 saw a repeat of three players hitting 15-plus.

Suwinski, Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes all hit 15-plus last season, while in 2022, Oneil Cruz hit 17, and that wasn’t even in a full season. Mentioning Cruz is crucial here because of his absence last year, meaning the homer totals should return for him.

The Pirates do have players you could argue are candidates to hit 20-plus this season. Reynolds and Suwinski have shown they can do so, and I expect them to do so as long as they stay healthy. Cruz hit 17 in 2022 with only 86 games under his belt during that season, so simple math says if he can be on that home run pace again with a full season, he’d eclipse 20-plus easily.

Then there is the acquisition of Rowdy Tellez, who saw a decline from his play in 2022 to 2023, but he’s still a player who has hit double digit homers in four of his eight seasons. In the four seasons he didn’t do so, he didn’t play more than 56 games in any of those seasons, while in the four seasons he did, he didn’t play less than 105.

Now Tellez returning to his 2022 form where he hit 35 long balls is a question mark for sure, but even a fraction of that play returning, especially in a left-handed hitting friendly ballpark like PNC Park, would likely result in 20-plus home runs.

You can even argue Ke’Bryan Hayes, who hit a career high 15 homers in 2023, could get to the 20 mark if he hits like he did in the final two months last year over the course of a full season, or even half a season.

After Reynolds, Suwinski, Cruz, Tellez and Hayes, it becomes a little more complicated to find power, or at least power we’ve seen, in the lineup. Henry Davis has a powerful bat, we saw glimpses with his seven homers in 225 at-bats along with his 41.4 hard hit percentage, but seeing it more consistently is something we’ll be watching for in 2024.

Then there’s others like off-season acquisition Edward Olivares, who hit 12 homers last season while ranking in the 70th percentile in expected slugging, showing plus power in Kansas City that is likely to improve as his home run total has increased in each of his three seasons.

Then you have a big group of players who could show plus power with improvements, like Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and Joshua Palacios just to name a few, with that trio hitting 19 combined home runs last season.

So, again, there are plenty of players on this roster that are capable of being plus players when it comes to power and home run totals, but its also something we have to see first and not speculate.

We can make a pretty good, educated guess that Reynolds, Suwinski and Cruz all likely surpass 20 home runs. Tellez can for sure do it as well because he has before. Hayes, Peguero, Palacios, Davis and others can improve their power element of their game and be on the fringe of that number.

This is also a roster on paper that appears to show more power than we have seen in quite some time as a whole, with Baseball Reference projecting the Pirates to have three 20-plus home run hitters in Reynolds, Suwinski and Tellez, while having eight other players going into double digit home runs.

After using a calculator, Baseball Reference projects 19 players will hit a combined 207 home runs in 2024 for the Pirates, a number that projects the Pirates to hit well over their highest home run total ever of 171 in 1999. 207 home runs would have ranked 13th in baseball last season, projecting a clear improvement on the long ball going into 2024.

The Pirates for sure can improve power wise in 2024 with the puzzle pieces they currently have in place, especially if some of the young players tap into their potential in that department.

Baseball has been about the long ball for quite awhile now, and if the Pirates can take the next step into becoming a plus-power team, the wins should follow.

Pirates Agree to Sign Aroldis Chapman; 1 Year 10.5 Million

1-22-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter Follow the site @Steel_Pirates

Coincidence or not Bob Nutting challenged his GM to get some things done, and well, this is sure something.

Aroldis Chapman, along with all his baggage and history with Andrew McCutchen are now Pittsburgh Pirates property and they paid a rousing 10.5 million for the pleasure.

Ok, so I’ve already seen people yelling about his domestic abuse case, his walking out on the Yankees situation, his ineffectiveness with the Rangers in the playoffs and about fifty other things too, but lets start with baseball and circle back ok?

The Baseball Reason

The Pirates are clearly struggling to acquire a starting pitcher, that’s not to say they won’t yet get that done, but it is to say the pitching market in general is sky high. I mean, how much more evidence do you need than a 10.5 million dollar deal for what will be a 36 year old reliever.

Here’s what he did last year in 58.1 innings. 1.4 WAR, 3.09 ERA, 103 Ks and a 1.215 WHIP.

Listen, there’s no real way to paint this as bad from a baseball perspective. This guy still has juice, and when you’re struggling to fill the rotation, sometimes the best thing to do is load up the bullpen and shorten games.

Bednar, Mlodzinski, Holderman, Chapman, Borucki, Hernandez, Moreta, and more of course, but that is a pretty wicked back end to try to get through.

Yes, yes, they still have to get there of course, but if you’re worried about guys not getting through the lineup 3 times, well, now they probably never have to.

Again, from a baseball perspective, this is a no brainer.

Now, is 10.5 too much? I mean, it’s not where I’d have spent, but the market is the market, and I can’t deny, this dude will get outs and he’ll do it in leverage situations.

A 1 year deal, gives them flexibility to move him for something else they need should it matter come deadline time. Last year, the Royals dealt him to Texas for two players, one a lottery ticket Roni Cabrera in the DSL and one a big power lefty starter named Cole Ragans, in 2023 he started 12 games for the Royals after being dealt. 2.64 ERA and a 1.074 WHIP. Kid is a beast, and he’ll be an anchor in the Kansas City rotation this year.

I’m not saying the Pirates will do as well should it happen, but having a commodity like this to deal isn’t nothing. It’s something I’ve suggested they do all the way back to 2020, yes it would have raised payroll, but it also could have accelerated the build, so, better late than never.

This is a guy who still regularly hits 100 on the gun, he’s not washed up, even if you saw him give up a homerun in the playoffs.

All the Off Field Stuff

Let’s start with the light stuff. In 2022 he got a tattoo and it developed an infection, as a result he missed a mandatory workout and was left off the Yankees postseason roster.

In 2015, he was accused of pushing, choking his girlfriend and firing 8 shots from his handgun. No charges were filed because police determined there were too many inconsistencies in the statements, and his attorney issued a statement denying all the allegations. MLB suspended him for 30 games anyway and eventually he apologized for using his gun.

That’s it. Neither are good things of course, but they are part of his past and to not mention them is to ignore or condone them.

I don’t, of course, but it’s also in the past and it’s really up to you how you take it, or if you simply can’t deal with it at all. In other words, I’m telling you in case you didn’t know, but telling you how to feel, well, that’s not my place.

More to come I’m sure, but the Pirates strengthened a strength tonight, and folks, it’s not a bad way to go, especially if the alternative is strengthening nothing.

Finally, I’ve been told that Andrew McCutchen was told this was a possibility and didn’t express opposition. Take that for what it is, maybe he’ll let Andrew fire a ball off his hip in the locker room.

If I know Cutch, he’ll publicly acknowledge he’s ok with it in the coming days/weeks or even in Spring Training. Relax, these are big boys, they don’t all have to be best friends.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Mom & Dad are Fighting!

1-22-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Bob Nutting spoke last week to Jason Mackey, and while most people have their minds made up about him, this time, he said a lot of what you want to hear.

As is course, people ignore everything they know and think about Nutting (because they agree with him this time) and rush to point fingers at the same guy he did.

It’s significant what was said, and the actions that follow it will be too, unless full scale mutiny is taking shape. We’ll talk more about this, but from the jump, nothing bigger happened in the Pirates world last week, so of course, we’re gonna talk about it.

1. OK, Mom and Dad…

Before I start, this is all from Jason Mackey’s exclusive interview with Pirates Chairman Bob Nutting last week in the Dominican Republic.

Here’s the first quote from the piece, I mean Jason didn’t bury the lede.

“I wish we were further along in this offseason than we are,” Nutting told the Post-Gazette on Saturday during an exclusive interview at the team’s Dominican Republic academy. “I’ve seen how hard [general manager] Ben [Cherington] has pushed. I’ve seen how close we’ve gotten to some deals. But we’re only halfway through. I think there’s still time. There’s still a lot of work to be done. I think Ben understands the expectations.”

Umm, wow right? Here’s Mr. Cheapskate talking about how his GM knows his expectations, and that they haven’t been met.

I’m not going to get into other people’s takes on all this, just purely my own. This stuff is fairly subjective and opinions are everyone’s right, personally though, I can’t avoid what I know.

I’ve told all of you, I’d been told a budget of 85-90 million is the working number, so my first take immediately was, you’re the one making it so hard, or, at least, you’re making him feel he can’t stretch things to get the deal done.

He continued…

“We need to make the team better now and make sure that we’re not mortgaging the future going forward,” Nutting said, “that we’re not making decisions where we’re giving up so much talent in a trade that we end up watching former pitchers thrive elsewhere.”

So, there are budgetary restraints, even if for some reason my number is off or they’ve changed their minds and upped it, how high are we thinking here? 100? 110? Maybe? Now, we see he’s still stuck on the same thing he started with when he decided to fire Neil Huntington, he doesn’t want to see former pitchers kill it elsewhere. So we’re restricting payroll, and clearly not comfortable paying in prospect capital, at least not what had been asked for.

Let me relate this to another industry for you.

In the restaurant industry, there are metrics that are tracked daily. Food cost has to be here, labor has to be here, hit all those and profits should be here. Well, another metric they add in there is customer satisfaction. To hit the numbers on food cost, portions are controlled tightly. To hit the numbers on labor and make them work with higher priced employees, you have to restrict how many are on a shift. If it takes 10 people to run a “good” shift, well, sometimes that labor numbers is going to require you to do it with 6. Then when you get negative comments from guests, well, nobody cares that you hit that labor number. Get it?

In other words, if you block every path to success with contradictory metrics that must be met, I find it laughable he’d be shocked it was a struggle.

All sounds to me like the beginning stages of Mom and Dad not seeing eye to eye. I know which one usually wins here, but these statements, likely made to make himself look a little better to a reporter and his readers, man if I’m Cherington I’m hanging him with them. I’m painting it as a promise to fans and I’m asking for more to get this stuff done, because what Bob did is make it impossible to not do more, period.

He even went so far as to say…“Ben has room to make moves that we need to make,”.

I mean, to put all this more concisely, I’m not happy with where we are, and recognize it’s not enough to reach our stated goal, but my GM has the money and permission to get what he told me would be needed to do so, so I expect him to do it, and that when he does, it’ll result in what he told me it would.

As a fan, you want to hear things like this from your owner, pushing on his GM to make the team better. As a fan who’s watched this franchise closely for however long all of you have, it likely made you spit out your coffee, before thinking if it’s ok for him to hit the GM, hey, I’ve got a mallet too.

Bonus points though for Nutting here. First he was pretty open and forthcoming about where the team is, and where and when they expect it to take a step forward. More than anything though, I give him points for recognizing something he said earlier about not seeing pitchers perform elsewhere and slightly amending it by addition.

“We have to find that balance,” Nutting said. “We have to get over that concern and be willing to make trades that add value and add performance immediately and going forward.”

Hey, I get it, you don’t wanna hear this dude. Well, I’m sorry, it’s newsy, important, and despite popular belief, the dude is just cheap and dresses like he shops at Gabriel Brothers, not Satan.

2. One Big Thing

I think most players have a list of things they want or need to improve on to take a step. Every year, there are guys who leave at the end of the season, and come back better at something they focused on.

Let’s talk about some bigger named players and what that one thing should be.

Jack Suwinski – Expanding the zone with 2 strikes. I could add in, not getting to two strikes by watching hittable balls go by, but that’s not in the Spirit of this entry. This means, outer third, you don’t get frozen, you get aggressive, and see what you can do to at least buy another pitch you could do something with.

Ke’Bryan Hayes – Resisting the urge to tinker. Ke’ had his swing looking the most comfortable I’ve seen him look, and all I’m asking here is that he doesn’t show up needing to learn about how launch angle only helps if you hit the baseball.

Mitch Keller – Consolidating his pitch mix. Mitch has by some counts 7 pitches he throws, and some of them, need to just go. They’re too similar in action to others, or just not effective. Final rough edge to chip off the statue here.

Henry Davis – Obviously catching. The hitting will come, but his defense behind the dish is crucially important. The fall out of trying to force his bat into a lineup where he doesn’t catch is mighty unappealing.

Bryan Reynolds – End his blood feud with umpires, cause he’s not going to win. A hitter like Reynolds can’t chase, but he needs to cover more of the plate than he is, especially with runners in scoring position. In those situations he walked 17 times unintentionally and struck out 27 times. Even just flip those and you probably win a couple more games. Fine tuning when you get to this level for some guys.

3. Cutch at 1B for Rest?

Jason Mackey brought this up last year, and I kinda just laughed it off. I still see no indication of it happening. Yesterday I got an interesting question for my Q&A and didn’t get to this one but it’s interesting. “Cutch question: why not give him a 1B glove. Not permanently but it’s a lower stress position on the body and it gives him a chance to get on the field and let someone else get a partial “rest day” as DH.” – Bill Buck

I still, again, don’t see it, but that’s not the part that got me thinking as much as the “partial rest day”.

Let me be blunt and shock you a bit, there is no such thing in MLB. If a guy is going to play in the field, or, could play in the field if called upon, they do all their game day work. Stretches, lifting, cardio, timing exercises, field practice, and then they play the game.

When a guy is getting “a scheduled day off”, he does just about nothing. He’ll dress for the game, he’ll cheer on his teammates, and if something crazy happens, he might have to hit, but the coach is going to pull all the stops to try to keep said player shut down.

There’s a reason, and no, it’s not just some goofy Pirates thing. Analytically speaking, there is evidence that a player who takes a day off but has to get up and in even for just a few innings has lost the benefit of being shut down all together.

While we all hate seeing Derek Shelton sit guys after they’ve been hot, or whatever, and we watch Atlanta ride their starting nine harder than a horse headed to the glue factory, the simple truth is, this and close to 25 other franchises in MLB believe firmly in this method of keeping players fresh. Originally made popular by the early World Series Astros clubs, this copycat league has almost universally adopted it, and until the Braves make it through the playoffs, nobody is going to believe they know better.

All that said, this ignores how hard it would be for a lifetime outfielder to transition to first base, not impossible, just hard. Further, if it’s in an effort to help him rest, may I suggest standing on dirt is worse for knees than grass, and first basemen NEVER get a play off.

4. Maybe its Not Just Management Seeing What We’re Missing

ESPN+ recently published their top 5 breakout teams for 2024, and that’s right, your Pirates clock in at number 3.

Here’s how they define it.

A breakout team is a team coming off a losing season that beats its established level of play by at least 10 games and winds up with a winning record.Read the article if you like, it’s fun, and it does require a subscription.

ESPN comped them to the 2008 Rays (From 66 Wins to 97 and an AL East Title) , and the 2022 Guardians (From 80 Wins to 92, an AL Central title and a berth in the ALDS). Much of their score was based on youth and organizational rankings.

I don’t know if I buy this stuff, could just be a bunch of hooey, but it’s also the first National piece I’ve seen that at least attempts to quantify what the Pirates leadership has been trying to sell.

I still don’t see it. Statistically the 3rd youngest team in baseball as we sit here today, leaves a ton of room for growth and performing toward the top end of their talent, but we’ve all seen it go the opposite too. Still, it was cool seeing someone think it could happen, and even have the balls to write it.

I’d also say, part of the youth those two teams had were in their starting rotations. The Pirates have plenty of that, problem is, they were already MLB seasoned for the Guardians and Rays.

5. Let’s Spend Bob’s Money!

My favorite pastime! Honestly Bob wants to do more, so let’s do more. I think they have 25 million before he gets queasy, so let’s stick with that and see how much we can fortify.

Michael Lorenzen – (10-12 Per, 1-2 Years) SP/RP – This one to me fills out a much needed rotation piece. He’s reliable, won’t blow your doors off but he eats his innings and hands off a winnable game more often than not, and he give you room to do more elsewhere. Yes, I know, shocker coming from me, I’ve only wanted the guy for 3 seasons.

Carlos Santana – (7-8 Per, 1 Year) 1B/DH – He was great here, and a terrific defender, he’s clearly holding out for more money than the 6.5 he played for last year, but the market is only going so high for a 39 year old. Eventually I can see him coming back.

Michael Taylor – (7-8 Per, 1 Year) CF – Defensively, he fills out the outfield and ensures some pop at the bottom of the order too. He’s not great at the plate, but he does his share of damage and he’ll save runs in CF, probably make both Jack and Bryan Reynolds better in the process.

If we go all free agents, this is how I’d go. Does it equal a Division title? Hey, probably not, but folks I could suggest Snell and Bellinger and still maybe not make that prediction. These signings fill holes and leave room for kids, that’s what 2024 is, aside from all the compete stuff, identifying kids, having them put a foot in the ground and improving.

Marco Gonzales, a Potential Pirates Reclamation Project

The Pittsburgh Pirates have done well in acquiring pitchers in past seasons and building them back up, most notably Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana, who have since signed good deals with the Angels and Mets.

Pittsburgh once again opted to acquire a soft-tossing lefty this off-season, trading for Marco Gonzales from the Braves shortly after he was traded from Seattle, bringing in a much needed arm for the rotation.

Questions arose about Gonzales as soon as the news broke that the trade was official, with most centered around his season-ending surgery last season.

Gonzales last pitched vs Pittsburgh May 28 of last season, having to decompress the anterior interosseous nerve, a nerve responsible for control of motor functions for pronating a player’s wrist and index finger.

Now, nerve damage is no joke, it has ended careers for countless MLB players, most recently Stephen Strasberg, who dealt with nerve damage in his right arm that prohibited him from pitching a full season since Washington’s World Series run in 2019, pitching only eight starts since then with zero in 2023.

Don’t forget a Pittsburgh Pirate dealt with nerve issues last season, that was Jarlin Garcia, who was signed in 2022 and never pitched an inning in black and gold.

So yea, its a worrisome issue, an issue I am sure the medical staff will closely monitor with every pitch for Gonzales, but if Gonzales stays healthy, the Pirates may have found a gem from the trade market.

Before last season, Gonzales pitched at least 25 starts (excluding 2020) between 2018 and 2022, having 13 or more quality starts in each of those four seasons. His least amount of innings in a campaign through those four full seasons was 143.1 IP in 2021, a season in which many pitchers were still recovering from the shortened 2020 season.

Although wins aren’t as important a stat as they used to be for pitchers, Gonzales also posted 10 or more wins in those four seasons as well, becoming one of MLB’s more efficient and consistent pitchers.

His career ERA sits at 4.14, which currently sits in between Tyler Anderson’s 4.35 career ERA and Jose Quintana’s career 3.74 ERA, offers some optimism that Gonzales could be the next Pirates reclamation project. His advanced metrics from 2022 also offer some hope he can return to that form despite the injury worries.

In 32 starts, Gonzales posted a 4.13 ERA while ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in average exit velocity and chase rate, while also ranking in the 72nd percentile in walk rate and hard hit rate.

His run values leave a ton to be desired, but Gonzales isn’t a fireball thrower, he’s a soft tosser who forced ground balls about 43-percent of the time in 2022 and rarely allows opposing hitters to get impressive launch angles historically, allowing an average launch angle of 12.2 over his career.

Everything with Gonzales is also vertical, with his only pitch in his mix that moves horizontally being a cutter. His other three pitchers are a fastball that sits on average at about 89 mph and a changeup and curveball combo that accounts for about 44-percent of his pitch percentage.

The cutter is even more impressive when you consider he saw 25.2 inches of drop with the pitch in 2022, making his arsenal a potentially lethal one if the fastball, cutter and his vertical off-speed pitches can work in tandem well.

So with all of that considered, Gonzales has the opportunity to be the Pirates next reclamation project, and with the state of the rotation including Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Gonzales as definite mainstays, Gonzales will be offered every opportunity to return to his 2022 and prior form.

The resume speaks for itself for Gonzales, he has the capability to be a strong option for this rotation, but the injury concern is the biggest, and likeliest, concern that could hinder him from being just that.

If he stays healthy folks, you’re going to love what he brings to the table and the team will feel the effects of having him because the rotation will improve along with it. 2024 is a chance for Gonzales to take a step towards his old form and for the Pirates to once again turn around a soft-tossing left-handed pitcher’s career.

Steel City Pirates – 21 Questions

1-20-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Lots of questions, and it’s a good point in the offseason to pause and ask some of these. The Pirates aren’t done, but they’ve laid enough framework to give you an impression of what this team is going to primarily look like in 2024. Let’s do this.

Question 1

Do u still think they will bring in another free agent starting pitcher, or trade for one? – John Grunning

They of course could sign a free agent John, but I’ve always felt they’d get more bang for their buck in a trade. I’ll explain in a later question why I don’t think there are rumors out there, but I think the teams to watch are Miami, Seattle, Kansas City, Dodgers, and Mets. They all have 5 they feel ok about, and 6th, 7th or even 8th options. Some are young, some are just MLB proven back end guys, some make too much money, and some come with years of control, but those teams could all probably afford to sell, and afford to take prospect capital in return.

Question 2

Is their a chance the Pirates could finish above .500 in 2024 is mine. – Neal Kokiko

Sure they could. Look, I don’t see this team right this second has “worse” than last year. The bullpen is fleshed out and deep, the lineup looks like it will have more pop. I can hardly ignore Oneil Cruz.

The rotation is the worry, and they have 3 I feel good about, and close to 6 guys I think could compete for the last two spots, one of which I still think they’ll fill.

So, yeah, I think it’s possible, again, you’d just like to see them slide more into the “tested” column if you were to want to feel better about it.

Question 3

What advice would you give aspiring Podcasters that want to be as successful as you and Jim? – James Littleton

I’m gonna nerd out, so skip this one if you just want baseball.

I mean, in my case, get lucky and make friends with someone building a Sports Media hub who thinks you have something to offer. I make no bones about the fact that I have a lot of the Pirates Fan Forum audience because of Dejan and DK Pittsburgh Sports hosting me on their platform.

That said, I started the podcast on my own and pitched it to him so I’ll start there.

Have something to say. Everyone thinks they do, but do you have something to say even when nothing is happening? Can you push buttons without pushing people away? Do you know how very little money it makes unless you really make it big?

It’s different, but much like when vetting writers for this site, I get asked just about every week if I’d “let someone write” on our site. That’s usually how dumbed down it is. My first question is always, sure we’ll consider it, what do you want to write? If they have an answer, I usually tell them to write it. Then I tell them it’s fine, or ok, or something complimentary but not too overboard and tell them to write me “what’s next”.

It’s crucial to see how hard that next idea comes for someone who wants to do this stuff.

This is usually where people stop. They get discouraged I didn’t make a big scene out of how great they did in the first one, or mark it up, or edit it, or run it and help them grow “their brand”, or make them feel like they’re working at The Sporting News by aggressively fact checking them. They want pay off for the work, in the form of praise.

If that’s the mentality you approach any of this with, forget it, don’t start. You’ll get praise over time, but it won’t come easy, and it will be so heavily outweighed by people who don’t read what you write, or outright find proving you wrong a pastime, trust me, you won’t do it long.

Podcasting is no different. If all you got is Nutting is cheap, you’ll grow super quick, but even those fans want to see your curveball, they’ve already fed on your fastball.

Have a subject. Have the ability to see topics when reporters aren’t feeding you them. And more than anything, don’t assume your thoughts are so revolutionary that you’re going to go viral. You have to build up credibility before you can expect to be taken seriously, so don’t walk in like you can’t be questioned, nobody knows who the hell you are yet.

This one is simple. DON’T MISS SHOWS! If you don’t feel your show is important enough to have your listeners or viewers know beyond a shadow of doubt you’re going to do your work and make sure the show is there when it’s supposed to be, why should they carve out time in their week for your show?

Be you. If you try to be someone else, eventually you’re going to have to come clean.

Be honest. If you are purposefully honest, nobody will take offense to any take you have, because they see all of it as part of you doing your due diligence.

If you have a co-host, pick a good one, who cares and can contribute as much as you do, or don’t pick one at all. Energy matters, and a bad co-host sucks more energy than a host could possibly add. Makes a show sound like a funeral sermon.

Don’t assume everyone listening, is in on a joke you made 3 episodes ago or that they all have the same level of interest as you, or knowledge as you. They aren’t you, and they all need to feel they can keep up and relate.

Last thing I’ll say, if your “concept” is talking to famous people, keep in mind the only people who can pull that off regularly are also, famous. Big name guests dry up, and how can listeners bond with you, if all you ever do is feed them someone else’s personality?

Sorry, it’s just nice to actually think about that for a bit, sometimes you don’t stop to think about how the mistakes you’ve made and how you’d do things better or different.

I guess when it all boils down, make people want to hear what you have to say, and whether writing or podcasting, that takes a ton of time and effort. You don’t just hit On Air and wait for the returns.

Question 4

With the money closers like Josh Hader getting, is David Bednar most likely to be traded this year by the deadline? – David Wald

5 years, 95 million or roughly 19 million per year.

David Bednar, had he been born in Boise, Idaho is likely a guy many fans are talking about much more as a trade candidate.

David just signed a 4.51 million dollar deal to avoid arbitration in his Arb 1 season. That means he has two more years of arbitration eligibility and is scheduled to enter free agency following the 2026 season.

Now, Mr. Wald here knows all this already. I know this because I’m well aware of how closely he pays attention. I had to explain all that, because all that context is why his question isn’t insane.

If Bednar performs the way he has this year, his Arb 2 figure will likely hit 6.5, maybe even as high as 8, and yes, they’d pay it if it came to that. Another good year and Arb 3 could crack 10, maybe even 12. They might not do that.

Here’s the thing, A closer in the majors usually doesn’t perform at the peak of their craft for more than 4 or 5 years tops. The ones who do that for longer are typically in Cooperstown. Now, I’m not claiming that David can’t do that, but I am claiming it’s not likely. He could still be a very good pitcher, but maybe not the “closer”.

Feel me?

Now, breathe for a second cause this is going to hurt.

Extending Bednar to me is dangerous. It would have to be approached carefully. To do so, you’d have to buy out at least 2027 and maybe 2028 too. I don’t think the Pirates could, or should pay a closer 10-12 million per year, I just don’t think that’s a luxury a team willing to top out where they do can afford. I also think, he’ll be 32 in 27, regress is likely, and for a power pitcher, who really needs that power to be “him” it’s even more likely.

I’d have to structure this deal so it works when he’s just a good reliever and not a dominant closer. Right now, that would be 5 years, 7.5-8 million per and I’d make it less at the end than the beginning.

If that doesn’t happen by say next offseason, I think they’ll have to consider trading him or just riding it out and letting him walk. Hometown kid, but this is a tough spot, truly because I think he could easily get paid by waiting. If I were his friend, I’d tell him to just wait.

Question 5

With regards to Spring Training… I have two basic beliefs- the stats don’t mean that much, and you can kind of get a feel for how the roster and positions will shake out during the last week and a half or so. What faults do you see in mine, and what do you look for in Spring Training? – Mark Witzberger

Brilliant question here, truly.

First, I think those two are perfectly fine assumptions, or stances, however you want to say it. I’d offer caveats that change them for me at specific times. Stats don’t mean much, but if it’s a struggling veteran returning, doing well can sometimes be something the guy needed to feel, and it can be a good sign of a rebound year. Your second point is pretty spot on, I mean, you can pick up on some of that based on opportunity given too, but no issue with waiting.

For me, I’m usually looking for who got bigger or filled out. If someone looked rough at a position, I’d like to see more sharpness, technique improvements. If a guy changed his swing or delivery, how is it coming along? Is he comfortable?

If it’s a kid I don’t expect to make the team, I’m looking for “special”. Any special, speed, glove, arm, a slider like a frisbee, a sinker that makes a righty tap dance, an aggressive swing on an outside pitch with oppo power. Things like that.

I’m a pretty firm believer, if you enter Spring and can’t lock in 20+ of your opening day roster damn near in pen, before you’ve seen a pitch thrown, you probably don’t have a team this year.

Question 6

I’m hearing and reading about concerns about the 3rd and 4th outfielders and at 2nd base. I personally don’t see that. With as many candidates we have for those spots. I’ve read plenty of the lack of starting pitching which I’m sure you will delve into. I think that is my biggest concern especially early in the year. We have help coming from the farm.. I’m very optimistic about the upcoming season. I’m looking forward this spring – Hill Jon

Here’s the deal Hill, the team put out the expectations of competing for both a better record, and a division/playoff run.

The reason your candidates are seen as suspect or concern worthy is because a team claiming they want to achieve those goals typically don’t have candidates as much as for sures.

I’m not saying some fans wouldn’t have that expectation anyway, because they certainly would, but I am saying, had they not said it, I could make a very easy case that the team will do a little better this year and just like I said last year, you’ll like the team better in September than you do in April. Spoiler, I do still think that, thing is though, they chose what they were selling, not me.

Once the season starts, I’ll probably lead with that, it’ll inform my prediction for the season and I’ll move on. They said it though, so starting the season with a scary rotation and hoping any of the number of kids who could actually do isn’t typically that.

They could prove us all wrong and their confidence in the options they have could actually be enough to take the Central. That’s baseball, that’s why we watch, I’m just saying it’s their job to sell it and make it happen, and until they do, I remain concerned, at least as it comes to them reaching their stated goal.

Here’s an example. Could Olivares be a good right fielder? Yup. Would I feel better with Michael A. Taylor in Center and Jack in right as it comes to achieving the goal of making the playoffs? Absolutely. Even if I’m wrong.

Question 7

Why does the Pirates 🏴‍☠️ Organization struggle to develop its players they draft? – Chris Forsha

I wrote about this the other day to a degree, so I’ll link that here for more, but…

Suffice to say, they haven’t drafted well. I think it’s too early to claim we know that to be a problem under Cherington, and I explain that in the piece I linked, but overall, their ineptitude in this area is clear and unavoidable. It’s not about money, they spend more than most.

It’s not all Hoka Hey. It’s not all forcing pitchers to throw sinkers. It’s not all having guys reduce velocity. It’s everything.

To be as clear as possible, the Pirates have many problems on this front historically, and every regime presents a new opportunity to make the changes needed to improve. Jury is out.

Question 8

Why is Pittsburgh not good at developing pitchers? – Chuck Shubak

Well, a lot of what I said in question 7 Chuck, but more than that, historically, they just haven’t. This is one of the oldest franchises in sports, how many pitchers they developed in that entire time would make even the Mount Rushmore you make of Pittsburgh Pirates? I mean, remember, Drabek was largely developed in New York.

Cole? OK, I’ll give you Cole. Smiley, that’s a good one, he rocketed through the system, just had a very short career, but he was no doubt good.

They just often fail here. I wish there was some fatal point I could land that would fix it all. I honestly wish to god it was just money or something, but it’s just ineptitude. Hopefully that very issue is what Cherington conquers, cause it honestly will tell the story of how this plays out.

Question 9

Why is power hitting ignored by this organization during the draft? Can they improve that? – Timothy C. Hemmis

I have to be honest, I’m not sure what this means. They have selected hitters with power with their top pick every year but one. They can certainly improve on having it reach the majors without some fatal flaw baked in, but even the rapid promotion of Jack Suwinski screams they care very deeply about power.

Also, in the draft, Power goes just as quick as a dude who can hit triple digits on the radar gun. Get past the first round and good luck, at best you’ll see projectable power. Strikeouts have become the Achilles heel for most of the Pirates existing or brought in power options, and bluntly, that just happens, even Jack strikes out a bunch. The team needs to maybe trust the power has a place even with that shortcoming, but how many of those can you have on a team and at that, you have to hit 30+ minimally to get away with that type of profile.

I mean, hope that answers it?

Question 10

What do you attribute the inordinately high percentage of 1st round picks failing to develop into in many cases not even serviceable MLB regulars to?
Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer etc. – Neil Davidson

Neil, often the simplest answer is in fact the answer. They just have a history of making poor first round selections. Kramer was a 2nd rounder by the way, but the spirit of the question stands and lord knows I could produce another 15 names. They’ve chosen players based on a tool, or couple tools, and then they failed to develop or accentuate those tools. For instance, Newman was a plus defender with plus speed. They developed him believing the entire time there was hidden power, rather than to focus on what did make him special. Now, it probably wouldn’t have made Newman a great player, but it might have made him look like the average MLB player he likely is a whole lot earlier. Now he’s an almost 30 year old journeyman, and nobody has incentive to try to backtrack, he’s too old for the win to count for anyone.

I can honestly say, since MLB instituted the tiered slotting system for the draft, there is little excuse beyond scouting. You aren’t fighting the battle where a guy won’t sign most of the time, because at least if everyone does everything on the up and up, the Yankees can’t offer a 1st round pick more and convince them to tell the Pirates they won’t sign.

I also can’t tell you if it’ll hold this way.

Cherington has made technically 5 first round selections. Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski (Comp Pick), Henry Davis, Termarr Johnson and of course Paul Skenes.

2 of those are number 1 overall, and while that’s no guarantee either, it’s very likely both are MLB players, and both are relatively successful. Gonzales struggled, but only had 100 ABs, probably early to place a bet. Mlodzinski looks great. Henry is obviously a work in progress and the other two are MLB top 100 prospects.

Even if all 5 of them hit and become stars, this organization will be seen as not good at this. First, nobody is going to give you credit for a 1:1 succeeding, they were supposed to. Second, they need to have some later rounders click too, and that will really help change the story.

Question 11

Rumblings about any more signings? – Mr. Walsh

Nothing new really. They are legitimately interested in Michael Lorenzen and Michael A. Taylor, but that’s been around for a few weeks. Trades, you just aren’t going to hear about because unless it’s one of the big names like Soto, or Cease, the agents aren’t really getting involved pushing a narrative for the media or trying to create a market.

Question 12

I think our players/organization are getting better. I also think the organization has some decent tradable players, that could bring a valuable return. I would’ve thought this offseason was it. But nothing has happened so far.
When do you think they will reach the point of trading good talent to get good talent of need in return?
Also, are we fans over rating our prospects? Do we think they are better than they are? Personally I do. – Mike Aujay

Well, that’s a lot Mike. Let me start at the end, yes, “we” think they are better than they are in many cases, but I’d also say, most fans do. Think back to how many years the Yankees fans proposed trading Andujar to every team for everything they wanted, so, bottom line, I agree with you here on this point. For us this is Bae, or Gonzales, or even Termarr.

As to when will they reach that point? 2020 if you ask them. To them, trading Starling Marte to start all this was exactly that. So was trading Robert Stephenson for Alika Williams, and Kevin Newman for Dauri Moreta. What they’ve valued is ceiling room on talent, and what they’ve amassed is what seems like far too much at any one given position. A big part of why, is to succeed, this team must develop 75% of their big league roster, especially the rotation, it’s the only way to keep it affordable for them, and yes, Bob’s cheapness is a separate conversation. I’m just not going to waste a bunch of time describing why how he runs things is wrong, we all know, we all feel it, let’s just deal with what is. Having 5 guys who could, hopefully equals 2 who actually do.

Lastly, what the Pirates are seeking is MLB help. Many teams that would want prospects in return aren’t in a position to deal much that really helps because they themselves don’t have many good players. Like, the A’s would love one of our middle infielders I’m sure, but they have maybe 2 MLB pieces that could crack this roster. Osvaldo Bido is starting for them this year, ya know?

Are there deals out there? Yes. There will be more after teams finish with free agency. That’ll knock some guys loose that were firmly locked in and I think that’s when they’ll pounce and get something done, although I don’t see a Cease type deal.

Question 13

Is there ANY hope at all for a Wild Card game, given our current pitching staff? Thomas Glovier

Of course there is Thomas, and that one word “hope” is exactly the crux of the conversation. Fans would like to see that hope fortified with some bets they’ve seen do something at the MLB level so their hope can be a little stronger than a 3rd party candidate winding up in the White House.

Of course there’s hope. My guess is you don’t ask the question if you didn’t already have some yourself.

Even the Dodgers are stuck on “hope”. They just have a lot more evidence that their hope will be rewarded based on historical performance. We’re banking on Luis Ortiz or someone like him to take a jump and do at least as well as a free agent pitcher who is locked in as a 4th or 5th starter. Thing is, his ceiling is way higher than that, but he’s likely not close to his ceiling, whereas that free agent, well his floor is established. He’ll never be worse than this level of production and when building a team you hope makes a push, raising the floor level is key to avoiding the skids that kids can bring.

It’s all about how the kids evolve. If enough do, boom, they get it done, if enough don’t or worse step backward, well, hope won’t last long.

Question 14

Why has pitching development, especially this past season, been the bane of the Pirates existence? If Oscar Marin is to blame, why is he still a coach for the Pirates? Brendan Zielinski

Kinda, and kinda not. He’s responsible for too much, and I kinda touched on it with Chuck. Long term, dude, I wish I knew.

Question 15

Who is the most likely “Show his worth” FA to potentially join the Pirates? Fever dream for it to be Kershaw? – MZylinski

Kershaw would be nice, but I don’t think this team is in a position where they want a guy who can’t help before July or August, otherwise Brubaker working his way back would be more front and center. They’ll have more help by then already, so I think whatever they do has to be from the jump. Unless it was Woodruff, that could be longer term so you’d be answering a question for down the stretch this year and next, which would be smart, so I don’t expect it lol.

I’ve wanted Michael Lorenzen for 3 seasons now. I thought he was a good fit in 2021 because he was easily good enough to be a 5th starter on this team and on occasion pitches above his head. Openly pitched for him last year before the Tigers gripped him up. Begged for him at the deadline because the Pirates were so short on pitching to end the season and I thought it might be nice to be on the inside track for signing him for this season.

So, don’t be shocked, I still want Michael Lorenzen. He can start, he can pitch out of the pen, he won’t complain either way and he’ll hold down whatever you want him to do with an outside shot he puts it all together and overachieves for a season.

He’s my guy left on the Free Agent board, and out of respect for everyone who will be underwhelmed by it if they should acquire him, I’ll keep my cheers quiet. Sometimes you just get a feeling about a player, he and Brent Suter have been mine for a minute and Suter is off the board with the hated Reds.

Question 16

Advice/recommendations for a first time attendee at a game? I’m coming over from UK in April. – Edward Bechham

First, welcome to our town when you get here, I brought my friend from the UK just last year for her first game so I’ll draw from that some things she found odd.

Yes, we do play organ music like all the time, and yes, unlike at soccer, our cheers or chants are often prompted by music or the giant video board.

I highly recommend staying over by 6th street and going to games by crossing the Clemente Bridge. It’s breathtaking, you’ll get great pictures and you’ll never forget the entrance you got to that particular ball game. Take time to walk around outside and look at all the statues. Grab a beer at North Shore Tavern while you work your way around.

None of our food in the stadium is “can’t miss” especially for the European palette I’ve found my friend, so just eat what doesn’t seem dodgy to you. If you get Primanti’s, don’t do it at the stadium, it’s close to what it’s supposed to be, but not exactly.

More than anything, Pirates fans in person are the most welcoming fans in the world. We’re very accustomed to being invaded by rival fans, so when someone comes over from England for OUR team, you Sir might feel like John Lennon for the day. Maybe you won’t even have to buy that first cold beer.

Have fun, you’ll never forget the views from inside the park, and I couldn’t care less where you sit, it’ll be true.

Question 17

Bigger need… a vet in the pen or another OF behind Bryan/Jack/Edward – SadPirateFan

Oh my the outfielder by a country mile. I haven’t felt this good about how a bullpen is shaping up since maybe 2016. In the outfield though, I really don’t want anything other than a starting center fielder. If they don’t get that specific player, I’m not interested. Unless it’s a starting CF who moves Jack to Right, they just won’t improve enough to bother adding another fringe for competition.

Question 18

Why do you think we’re losing out in the free agent market, when it comes to signing SP’s? Also, do you think Oscar Marin has a bad reputation and that could be the reason why. – Reid Family

The first part is incredibly easy. Because they won’t offer as much money or play the options game that most free agents want who have been taken off the board. I’d elaborate, but why muddy the truth, that’s what it is, they have a budget, it requires whatever this signing is to be in a range, and it’s just not attractive enough bait yet. Plop a hot dog in a pond and you might catch a carp or catfish. Plop a hot dog in a stream and at best a crayfish crawls out and takes a bite but you’re still hungry.

No, I actually don’t think Oscar Marin has a bad reputation, in fact, he’s done very well helping veteran pitchers they’ve acquired. Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, Vince Velasquez, Rich Hill (he was good version of him while here), and they’ve all publicly glowed about him specifically, none more so than Quintana.

It also doesn’t matter if he was responsible or not, as it comes to perception, he wins on all four of those guys, even if he just stood back and grunted one day when Jose let a sinker loose and he took it as training, all that matters is it worked for them.

Is he good? I’ll say this, I think he’s over tasked. The Pirates structure demands that he oversee the pitching program for the entire organization, yes, even the DSL. Of course he can’t do all that effectively, and at the big league level, often times veterans only require a hint or a different set of eyes picking up why everyone knows a fastball is coming. Rookies, and young pitchers, well, they need more and frankly, I’m not sure how much time he has to dedicate to it.

To me, make Marin the pitching Poobah if that’s what you believe he’s capable of, but get me a MLB coach who is dedicated to the MLB staff. Same for hitting bluntly. And yes, I’ve called for a Haines firing, not Marin’s, yet.

Question 19

With baseball ever changing is it possible the pirates throw out the traditional 5 man rotation philosophy and go with maybe 3 traditional starters who are trying to get deep into games and mix and match the other two days through the cycle ? They would need a group of “once through the order” guys and guys with options so they can keep guys cycling through AAA to keep fresh. They did this down the stretch last year (I realize they had to with injuries) but were quietly effective with it. 3 effective starters would be easier to find than 5 and cost less - Ryan Antonucci

Let’s start here, of course it’s possible, they just did it last year Ryan.

I’ll say this though, they haven’t acquired the right guys to execute it. Gonzales coming off that injury, man, I can’t expect him to give 200 innings. Perez was a reliever last year, have to imagine 150 is asking for about what’s possible there. Keller could go 200 again, I’m sure he even wants to, but zero hiccups on health can happen and he’d have to be good again of course.

And I don’t see the long relief either. If Ortiz, Contreras, Priester, Falter, aren’t good enough to start, they probably aren’t good enough to pitch 3 innings either, and the pen can’t afford the numbers for guys dedicated to piggybacking. Not yet, not as constructed.

All that said, desperation spawns strange bedfellows in baseball. If they swing and miss on everything they try to get another starter, they might just have to. And, it might be smart, because with Burrows and Brubaker both working their way back, they too probably won’t be 6-7 inning guys, so you might need to have that skill set in house. My hope would be that is what Perez slides into by the end of the year.

Question 20

Why do you think the Pirates never keep a top prospect like Paul Skenes to the end of their contract and then make a QO and take the extra no. 1 pick as compensation? My thinking is bring a player like Skenes up in late April if he’s ready and add a 7th year of control. When teams come asking for him in a trade when he has 2 years left on his contract you demand one of their recent first rd draft picks explaining to them you can get the equivalent if he walks in 2 years. This would be more effective and not seen as a bluff if they’ve actually done it once or twice. The Cards did it with Pujols and it restocked them with first rd picks Wacha and an Piscotty. 7 years of Paul Skenes would be pretty amazing. They’re not likely to extend him. Sorry for the long question but it’s something I’ve wondered for years. – Jim Maruca

Jim, damn man, great question. Honestly, it’s money and panic. QO are BIG commitments, often more than a player would get on the market, it’s always a risk they might just take it. A risk they should take, but…

They trade because they don’t think a window is open, and fear losing the talent for nothing. Draft picks are great, number one prospects are nice, but they just as often remain off limits for teams, even the Dodgers.

The real answer to that long question, is money and fear of risk of any kind. Additionally, if Skenes is what Skenes could be, by his Arb 3 season he could get 25-30 million awarded to him, and that my friend is why short of an early extension, he’ll be gone by 2030.

Question 21 – The perfect place to stop but I got too many, so I’m jamming 2 into 1!

We all know the big names coming in/up, how about 2 or 3 under the radar candidates to not only make the team, but make an impact. – Greg Roland

A few GMBC acquired young guys need to emerge for the Pirates in 2024. Cruz aside (too easy lol), who are your top breakout candidates and why? – Nick Cammuso

Liover Peguero to me showed a couple things, the power plays and so does the glove. I expect Peguero to break out this year because I think he’ll stop trying to prove he belongs and just belong. Just feels like he got to that tipping point then started struggling and lost his confidence last year. I like him a lot to take a jump this year.

Henry is probably too easy, but man, he’s gonna hit Nick. I know what we saw, and I know all the injury excuses, I’m not interested in any of it, this kid just is a hitter, and I expect to see a lot more of that this year, especially in the doubles and dinger numbers.

Nick, those two answer yours pretty well, but don’t rule out one of these meant for Greg either.

Jared Jones. I think this kid is going to have people drooling in camp and Spring Training this year. Not being on the 40 man is of course an issue, but I’m so high on him, I think he could push his way onto this roster by May, and not because the team is that destitute, because I don’t think we get to June before that kid has become impossible to ignore. Make the team is a stretch, but I’ll say this, most people not driven by an agenda, will whine about him making it while everyone else is crying for Skenes.

Tsung-Che Cheng was protected from the Rule 5 draft, and for good reason, he has tools and projection that debut in 2024 isn’t out of the question. If the Pirates do indeed move some of their middle infield overflow, Cheng could find himself a crack. If god forbid Cruz gets hurt or can’t hold down SS, Cheng and Peguero are probably the Pirates best fielders not named Alika.

Let’s have another pitcher, JC Flowers. He’s got a big arm and figuring out command is the missing piece, to me, guys like this could find that switch just about any time, and if he does, well, you can’t teach what he can do. Reliever all the way here, but you know how many of them they use, debut is at least a good bet.

And the last one, I’m still holding out hope on Matt Gorski. I know the K rate is trash, but that power and his athleticism at two positions of need CF and 1B is attractive as hell. If he can even just cut the K’s down by a third, he’d be hard to not take a look at especially with MiLB free agency looming. It’s no crazier than Palacios last year brother.

Development is Non-Linear, but for the Pirates, it’s Been Almost Non-Existent

1-17-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Fans are always going to expect more. That’s fandom.

The Pirates have curated a fan base that has lowered their expectations down to expecting at least some effort. From players who probably aren’t good enough, from coaches who probably don’t have all the right buttons to push, even if they knew what they’d be. From General Managers who by in large are trying to operate a huge machine with little to no room for error, and next to no room to ask for more.

Some of it’s fair, some of it’s not, all of it points back to MLB’s system and an owner who is more than happy to live in it, even if he too wishes it was different.

That said, there are things this franchise could do better, could invest more in, could have a little humility with that could change the fortunes of the Pirates, and unfortunately, it’s been a shortcoming since at least 1995, and that’s Amateur scouting and the development system itself.

It spans ownership groups, it spans GMs, development leaders, scouting departments, increases in analytical departments, infrastructure investment, academies on foreign soil and even MLB rule changes to the amateur talent acquisition methods the game employs.

This stuff is incredibly hard to track because of all that. Right now in MLB, there are 10 GM’s who have been on the job since 2016 or longer. 3 longer than 2009, and only one Brian Cashman who’s been the Yankees boss since 1998.

Point is, when you start wanting to hold clubs, or club executives accountable, for most clubs the guy you want to point fingers at is already somewhere else, or maybe out of baseball all together.

Think about it this way. Ben Cherington was hired in 2019 and on his 40-man roster right now, Carmen Mlodzinski, Nick Gonzales, and Henry Davis were his selections, and 100% untouched by his predecessor. And that’s an entirely reasonable number at this point, especially given there were only 5 rounds of a draft in 2020 and none of the prospects oculd actually start playing.

These conversations get muddy because people will want to add in other players he acquired young and the team developed, but to mention a guy like Liover Peguero in this context, is to ignore that he wasn’t “discovered” by the Pirates, he was acquired. That doesn’t matter for the success of the team, but it does matter for the simple accounting of who came from where, and how did it come to be.

Once a player is drafted/signed they become a professional player, and a whole new set of scouts take over from the amateur scouts who originally advised the team to sign him. In other words, if you want to give the Pirates credit for identifying him and ultimately dealing for him, that’s fine, they deserve it, especially if he continues to develop at the MLB level, but you can’t mix the two. In other words, don’t use the shadow cast by some of the wins by the pro scouts to mask the sunlight that needs shined on this team’s lack of success with the Amateur side.

Money isn’t a problem here. The Pirates, very provably mind you, spend more than almost anyone in baseball internationally, and there are limits on what any team can spend on the market and much like the Amateur draft, the amount that can be spent is predetermined, AKA a pool of money. Teams as of last year, because it had been frozen for a couple seasons may trade for international pool space, not the money, just the space. They literally trade for the ability to spend more money, and yes, the Pirates do and have done this countless times, again, provably, more than most.

Just as provably though, they’ve had precious little success.

Now, for this market in particular, it’s impossible to judge Ben Cherington. His first class, the 2019/2020 he walked into a class that was for the most part signed. But he still made more, filling out the class with names you probably remember like Solomon Maguire and Po-Yu Chen. Earlier in the class Huntington had already inked Tsung-Che Cheng who Cherington just protected this year form the Rule 5 draft.

Here’s why judging him for this class is probably dumb, even while he made some selections, and it’s really the story of how signing Po-Yu came to be.

He was a big time international prospect, no doubt, out of Taiwan, he had been a member of the 2019 World Champion Chinese Taipei Under 18 National Team. To get him and the 1.25 million it would take to get him to sign, Cherington moved two prospects to St. Louis and Baltimore for slot space in the International pool. The prospects sent hardly matter, lottery tickets out, for lottery ticket in.

The Pirates had been scouting Chen for almost 3 years, hardly a Cherington decision, you know, since he was working for the Blue Jays.

Cherington said the Pirates and their scouts rated Po-Yu as the equivalent to a second round pick talent and that was that. Cherington who was just hired, essentially had to throw his trust into a scout who he didn’t hire, about a kid he hadn’t been following for 3 years, and he had to trust it enough to make 2 separate deals to get it done.

“In particular, our scout in Taiwan, Fu Chun Chiang, did a great job getting to know Po-Yu and his family and putting us in a position to sign him,” Cherington said.

They used bonus pool money acquired from the Diamondbacks in the Starling Marte deal that brought Brennan Malone and Liover Peguero as well to sign 16 year old Australian outfielder Solomon Maguire.

For perspective only, Solomon is now 20 years old and just completed his third stint with the Florida Coast League in Rookie ball and he’s spent a considerable amount of time on the IL. His path is at the very least murky, maybe they give him a shot in Bradenton, but his early and disrupted stats aren’t promising from the FCL. It’s taken almost 4 years to get here.

Po-Yu is likely going to start in AA Altoona this year. The Pirates took 2021 and split him between the Complex League and Bradenton. In 2022, they gave him a full season in Bradenton where he almost touched 100 innings. In 2023, he was promoted to Greensboro in High A and again, he hit almost 120 innings and did some good things.

Thing is, he’s not dominating these levels like you’d hope. He’s doing enough to progress, and if he’s going to stop showing that much, AA will be where it shows up. The thing they’ve learned and adjusted about him as they’ve developed him is all their ratings check out, with the exception of his command. When he gets to AA, should he not reign it in, the more advanced bats will skyrocket his already borderline too high WHIP. The strikeout numbers however are impressive. Mixed bag, too early to tell, and he’s now 22. In December of 2025 he’ll be 24 and he’ll also need protected from the Rule 5 Draft if in fact he’s made himself someone to worry about being selected.

I say all this because, when I hear things like “we should be seeing some wins on international signings” I can’t help but point back to these two “wins”. Because they’ve had them for as long as anyone Cherington brought in, and it’s too early to judge them let alone his body of work. Any winning we’d have seen already, wouldn’t be Cherington’s doing. Say Castro had worked out, well, kudos for playing him, that’s about it.

The traditional draft, much the same, in fact, I could argue Henry was a bit too fast to MLB and Mlodzinski should be his only representative.

Over the years, the Pirates have changed out scouts, and coaches, and advisors all over the baseball world, and they’ve kept a bunch too. Firing all your “unsuccessful” scouts can damn your organization for years. I already explained how long the Pirates were in with Po-Yu Chen’s family before inking that deal, well, it’s not much different in Latin America, except there are 25 other guys one street over waiting for a crack in your scout’s relationship. Getting back in isn’t as easy as getting out.

So change is slow, evaluation is slow, and ultimately the next GM will get credit for players Cherington brought in, just like he’ll get credit for Huntington guys, who got credit for Littlefield guys.

Overall though, the Pirates system, and all their investment in the Dominican have netted precious few MLB regulars, let alone stars. 2 or 3 wins in the next half decade and that narrative changes, well, that reality changes.

There are some potential wins already here like Luis Ortiz, and more coming like Shalin Polanco and Cheng, Chen, but baseball scouting and development is best viewed through a pretty wide lens and an understanding that when you’re measuring a 16 year old’s shoulder width to project how big his frame might allow him to grow at the same time you’re trying to figure out if he can play baseball, you are never going to have a good hit rate.

That said, you can’t go 0 for 100 either.

That said, Junior Vizcaino was the Director of International Scouting, and he remains in place.

The Top man for Amateur scouting when Cherington arrived was Joe Dellicarri, and he’s now the VP of Pro Scouting. While Will Lawton who was Director of Baseball Operations was moved to Director of Pro Scouting.

They’ve made changes, additions, mostly small, and more than anything, they’ve shuffled titles and responsibilities around many of the same names and faces.

I’m not here to tell you any one of them is doing a poor job, or to point at any one of them and try to explain why the Pirates just don’t get enough wins in selecting amateur talent, I’m simply not educated enough to attempt it, and neither are a lot of GM’s I’d wager, but when something has been poor for as long as this has been poor in Pittsburgh, I’d like to think I could look at a staff directory from 2019 versus 2024 and have it look like I don’t know, 35% has turned over? That’s not been the case, and Cherington surely doesn’t need to feel any allegiance to those who predated him. In fact, by keeping many of them, he now owns them as part of his organization.

Like I said, we’ll probably be judging this in earnest 10 years from now, maybe 2 GM’s from now, but the problem has lasted almost as long as the team has missed out on the Playoffs.

If this doesn’t improve, the team will only ever get so good, it’s not a nice to have in a market this size with an owner who won’t give in and spend more.

Prayers for Priester

1-16-24 – By Michael Castrignano– @412DoublePlay on X

As the Pittsburgh Pirates headed into an off-season with heightened expectations, a key need for this team was clearly starting pitching. It makes sense as the team DESPERATELY needed arms in the rotation over the last two months of the season. Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo took two spots but between ineffective attempted starters and bullpen games, it would often be a struggle. They were thirsty for arms to eat innings. Enter: Quinn Priester.

Wait! I know what you’re thinking: Another failed 1st round draft pick courtesy of the Huntington regime. Maybe you weren’t thinking that before, but likely are now. Before you break out the pitchforks ready to give up on Quinn, let’s talk about why you’re (maybe) wrong.

Starting with some background, Priester was picked 18th overall in the 2019 MLB draft out of Cary-Grove High School in Illinois. In a draft class featuring Adley Rutchman, Bobby Witt Jr., Michael Harris II and Corbin Carroll, Quinn didn’t have quite the success that these others did in their rookie years but, at draft time, it seemed like a solid pick. Pairing a fastball touching 97 and a low-90s sinker with a 60-grade curveball, the Bucs were banking on finding the next ace in their rotation.

After signing, Priester pitched 36.2 innings of rookie ball before losing 2020 to Covid. He spent the next season entirely at High-A Greensboro – posting a 3.04 ERA over 20 games and 97.2 innings, with 98 strikeouts to 39 walks – making the All-Star Futures Game and cementing himself as a top pitching prospect in the organization.

An oblique strain suffered late in Spring Training delayed the start of his 2022 season but, after adding a mid-80s slider the previous year, he continued his run across four levels of minor league ball, compiling a 3.29 ERA across 90.1 innings with 89 strikeouts to 30 walks. His WHIP dropped from 1.239 to 1.207 despite progressing upwards in the minors, reaching AAA Indianapolis to end the year, resting on the doorstep of the majors.

That debut would have to wait as he was very hit-and-miss to open 2023. Over his first 16 starts, he had 7 outings in which he allowed 4+ runs. He was more aggressively targeting strikeouts (81 over 79.1 innings over that span) but increased his walks (35) and hits allowed (78) as a result. This culminated in his last start on July 2nd where he went 7.1 innings allowing 2 runs on 5 hits. He would get his call to the Pirates shortly thereafter but it did…not go well.

Priester debuted on July 17, 2023 at home against the Cleveland Guardians, lasting 5.1 innings and allowing 7 runs off 7 hits while walking 2 and striking out 2. Quinn made two slightly better starts for Pittsburgh before a trip back to Indianapolis, where he keyed in on developing his sinker to be more effective.

The lowest rate of HR/FB (home runs to fly ball rate) across MLB in the 2023 season with a minimum of 50 innings pitched was 2% by Oakland reliever Lucas Erceg. The average in MLB is typically around 10%. Quinn Priester posted the WORST rate at 26.7% after allowing 12 (!) long balls in just 50 major league innings, a rate that should, theoretically, normalize over a longer stretch of games. Especially for a guy who posted 53% ground ball rate, ranking in the 89th percentile per BaseballSavant.

A big reason for that high ground ball rate, obviously, was due to that sinker. The point of the pitch is to get hitters to knock the ball right into the ground, so, makes sense. We’ve seen it work successfully with a number of Pirates pitchers both under this regime and the previous one. 

Maybe Nutting is just a fan of the pitch. Who knows?

But the problem he ran into, as is common for young pitchers, was location. Take a look at these two pitch zone charts:

Ignore the number of pitches and percentages and just look at the location consistency on each from the 2023 season. One shows a pitcher who is unsure of himself and the other shows a team ace, who was in the exact same position 4 years earlier. Of course, back in 2019, Keller (who is obviously the second picture) wasn’t yet throwing his sinker – which he added and is able to utilize successfully because of his ability to command both it and his other pitches.

A quick look at pitch tracking shows that some of his pitches over-performed, some under-performed and some were just plain ineffective. Remember, Priester was reaching upper-90s on his fastball in the minors. But once he got to Pittsburgh, it was averaging 93 and typically running middle-middle becoming a wholly ineffective mess of a pitch.

On the other hand, he’s had a few pitches that maybe can become his go-to option for strikeouts. For instance, his slider had a 41.4% whiff rate, compiling 14 of his 36 strikeouts on the offering. It’s a pitch he added in 2020 during the pandemic and has been very effective as an out pitch. His changeup was used infrequently but only resulted in 5 hits (4 singles and a double) over 14 batted ball events and produced his lowest exit velocity of all his pitches at 82.9MPH.

So is it “Quinn for the win, or are we just living on a prayer for Priester?” 

It’s hard to say. 

For one thing, Priester either needs to get his velo back on his fastball and locate it up in the zone or scrap the pitch altogether. 93 down the pipe is batting practice in the big leagues and he will continue getting crushed if he doesn’t return to form on the offering.

On the other hand, his secondary stuff is getting such steep vertical movement that it might not matter how effective his fastball is if he can use it as a show pitch and then rake batters with his sinker/curve/changeup and finish off with the slider.

The team has a handful of arms who might make up the final two roster spots behind Keller, Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales and Priester is at least in the conversation. Last year’s debut was rough but it was also a wake up call. It’s an enormous difference playing in Pittsburgh versus the sandlots of the minor leagues. But, at the end of the day, it is going to come down to Priester having confidence in himself and in his stuff.

And I think we are all hoping and praying he figures it out sooner than later.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Steel City Pirates

1-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Most of you saw the announcement last week about this website changing to Steel City Pirates, and since you’re here, it’s obvious it hasn’t prevented you from getting here, so, awesome.

I covered a lot of ground in the intro article, but let me just move that ball forward a bit. We will be adding a couple new writers here in the next month, at least one more podcast and I plan to build out a page where you can go every week to see all of the shows on video.

I’d like this site to become a hub for all the Pirates podcasts we love and an outlet for all those podcasters to write.

Spread the word, help other fans find the site and let’s blow this thing up bigger than we ever did before.

1. What if Marco Gonzales is, Gasp, Good?

Let’s be as real as real gets here. Marco Gonzales is coming off an injury that almost no pitchers recover from, at least not to a degree where they return and are effective. Nerves are funny things, and you’d almost be better off having a tangible injury that can be repaired in a traditional fashion.

A first round selection of the St. Louis Cardinals back in 2013 out of Gonzaga, Marco made his debut at the age of 22, and he’s thrown 893 innings in the Bigs.

After a fledgling start in St. Louis, he was traded to Seattle and that’s where he became a solid performer. From 2018 through 2022 Marco would start 131 games and deliver 765.2 innings, including being the opening day starter for the Mariners 4 times.

Last year, Marco was plagued by this nerve issue, in fact, just getting a diagnosis was a struggle. He wasn’t healthy, but nobody could tell him exactly what was wrong. It forced him to try to push through, before they finally discovered the issue and shut him down.

Marco is also seen as a soft tosser, meaning, 91-92 and a bunch of breaking stuff, which from the left side can play. Well, frankly, some have decided even that is too much to expect.

Well, enter Gonzales, who claims to be 100% healthy now, and is working hard to recapture what made him worth his 15 million dollar price tag, and yes, I’m aware the Pirates aren’t paying all that.

Good stuff, because last year there was real fear he’d just never be right again, and when Marco is right, well, you won’t see him as a “5” or whatever.

Now, how many innings do the Pirates expect to get from him? Unknown, and they’d be wise to leave it there. This is still a scary injury, and while he feels right, it could crop back up at any time.

Bottom line, at worst, this is Rich Hill from 2023, at best, Jose Quintana.

This isn’t to convince you they’ve done enough, just to remind you they haven’t done nothing.

2. Rumors & Whispers

For many fans, not seeing rumors and whispers about their team equals not doing anything. I’ve quite literally heard some fans claim just hearing the Pirates were interested in a player is better than nothing.

Well, let me word this carefully, because there are a ton of people who like to pretend they’re super plugged in to the inside. Let me again be very clear, if you do this long enough, you’ll get contacts and you’ll hear stuff. Knowing what is “reportable” is a skill.

If I told you every name I heard, every whisper that swirled, every conversation someone nudged me was going on, I’d hit on something here or there, and some of you might actually think I’m one of the insiders. Thing is though, I’d have about a 10% hit rate for being right, because the truth is, most of the things you hear, they simply aren’t report worthy.

Real reporters get even more of that stuff, and they too have to know the difference.

There are times when the best thing to do with information is allow it to inform your writing, but not push it out to the masses to watch it get turned from a whisper into a swirling vortex of consternation and expectation. Bluntly, it’s not fair to you.

It’s also not fair to say nothing is happening. There are conversations, there are deals that have been proposed, some that have gone all the way to agree or not agree. Players they’re interested in, workouts they’ve attended, contracts they’ve offered and there’ll be more too, but telling you that the Pirates are “interested” in a player is just about as useful as me reporting the Pirates Fans are interested in winning.

Now, let’s say I’m sitting here writing and I get 3 or 4 text messages from different people, and 3 times without me asking one guy’s name comes up. Well, that might be worth me mentioning. Especially if they’re in different departments.

I’ve chosen to take this approach because when I tell you about a rumor, I at least want you to know, it’s a solid rumor, at least by my standards. A daily dump of “news” won’t do anyone favors.

3. The Bednar Conundrum

We all love David Bednar, the hometown kid has become the latest in a long line of local kids making it big, and he happens to be home to do it.

This year David hit Arbitration and just agreed to a 4.51 million dollar deal to avoid a hearing.

He has 2 years left of arbitration before he hits Free agency after 2026. Currently, David is 28, he’ll be 29 during the 2024 campaign.

A heavily used closer, Bednar has pitched 179.2 innings since being acquired in 2021. He’s visibly worn down for spells in each of those 3 seasons here in Pittsburgh, and last year in particular, he rebounded nicely from one of those spells as well, which hadn’t happened before.

Arbitration will keep getting more expensive. If he duplicates his 39 save performance with a 2.00 ERA from 2023, well, next year his arb figure will hit 8, maybe 8.5. Arb 3, again if he keeps killing it, maybe 10.5 – 11.5.

The Pirates should be able to afford that, but knowing how these arb figures will likely evolve, should paint a picture of what an extension could look like for Bednar. You’d have to buy out those arb years, and you’d probably want another year or two.

I’m not sure that’s how I want a team that doesn’t spend enough to spend their money. And yes, it killed part of my yinzer to say it. Like I’m quite sure he’d take something like 4 years 32 million if only because he’s one of us, but even if he did, is that what you want?

Do you trust he’ll still be an elite closer in say 2027? That salary would still be ok even if he regresses to a 7th or 8th inning role, but everything they do with this player will get more scrutiny. More betrayal for a fan base already expecting it and fearing it.

I think the Pirates might end up extending him because of when he expires on top of the hometown kid thing, but I’m really struggling with it, because if David loses so much as 2 MPH from his heater, he’s nowhere near the effective closer he’s become. That will absolutely be the first thing to go too as he ages.

Brains might need to beat out heart here, and this team doesn’t have the credibility with this fan base to make the call right now in my opinion.

4. If 2024 Goes Bad

We all of course hope the team just keeps trending in the right way but if it doesn’t, let’s talk about what we can expect as we head into 2025.

  • The team would not enter yet another rebuild, they’d just keep rolling with this one and try to get back on track.
  • The GM would remain in place, so would the team president.
  • A step back would spell trouble for the coaching staff, their jobs would all be in jeopardy.
  • If the record doesn’t improve, but by the end of the year it looks like they have 4 or 5 internal starting pitchers in the Bigs and going well, 2024 could be looked at as little more than a blip. In other words, if the vets they brought in bomb and it leads to internal growth, it might be a step back that leads to a spring forward in 2025. In this case, all bets are off on the staff.
  • Payroll will rise in 2024, and it’ll rise in 2025 again, regardless of how this season goes.
  • Obviously player evaluation will take place, and we’ll move on from some, but it would be hard to avoid this team being even more talented at the Big League level come 2025, just through internal promotion and growth.

5. The Offseason Remains Slow

The stubbornness of the market will have to break within the next two weeks. We aren’t far from Pitchers and Catchers reporting, so it stands to reason, teams need to have some sense of who they’re sending.

Some free agents like Jordan Montgomery, have been very overt about where they want to go, and they aren’t afraid to wait to make it happen. Other top tier guys like Blake Snell, aren’t traditional starters, so the market value doesn’t match traditional estimates.

All of this stuff will get worked through, and dominoes will start to fall. The Pirates need this to happen if only because the signings are going to knock other players loose and create availabilities via trade that weren’t there before.

These types of conversations happen all the time. Track is laid on a deal, but it’s shelved waiting for one of the teams to land a piece that makes it all make sense. For instance, let’s say someone wants Conner Joe, well, the Pirates might not feel they can do that until they’ve signed another 1B to platoon if not start there.

Maybe a ridiculous example, but just trying to illustrate the types of background stuff going on. Now, multiply that by like 20, cause a whole bunch of other teams are doing it too, and they don’t know what all the others are doing.

ALL that said, deadlines create action, and Pitchers and Catchers isn’t one, but it sure acts like one as it comes to roster movement.