1-3-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates, rationally or not, ticked off a good percentage of the fan base today with two shrewd moves regarding the upcoming PiratesFest on January 6th at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center, here’s hoping we avoid an insurrection, sorry, couldn’t help myself.

First, and this wasn’t really an announcement as much as a realization upon opening email, but the Pirates have decided to curate the Q&A with management staff Ben Cherington, Travis Williams and Derek Shelton. Instead of what the team has traditionally done, just taking questions.

After years of not having the event, it just felt like a slap in the face in the moment. Not that I don’t understand why that might be uncomfortable for them, but it felt somehow to me like, well, they owe us at least that damnit.

Then the whole autograph session thing drops. The first session entirely for season ticket holders was off the table, with my personal favorite player of all time Andy Van Slyke. All the other sessions went on sale, most were gone before 15 minutes passed.

Oh man, again, c’mon, give us something here right?

I mean I don’t even collect autographs, but it’s nice getting a chance to just shake hands, say hi, shoot the shit.

Listen, we all have takes, I’ll probably have more to say on the Pirates Fan Forum tomorrow night, but for now, I simmered down. Thought about it a bit, and you know what, I planned on asking what I consider to be respectful questions anyway, so I used their system instead of just being mad they created one.

I submitted questions I think are completely fair, and here’s hoping they answer some of them, at the end of the day, I want answers, not gotchas anyway.

Question 1: Ben Cherington
I’ve seen it reported that Andy Haines and Oscar Marin are in charge of overseeing the implementation of their areas of expertise throughout the entire system as well as direct coaching at the MLB level. Other teams have structured this with a pitching or hitting coordinator position to avoid such a heavy lift. Thoughts on why you’ve chosen this approach?

Question 2: Ben Cherington
The sum and structure of the Shohei Ohtani deal was tops in the baseball world this offseason. Why should Pirates fans feel their franchise can compete more frequently in a league with a spending gap this wide?

Question 3: Ben Cherington
Is there a reason we haven’t seen anyone signed to more than a one year contract in free agency, aside from options of course?

Question 4: Travis Williams
Season ticket holders are the life blood of a franchise, but creating them should be too. Do the Pirates do enough to show non-season ticket holders a look at what it might be like behind the curtain?

Question 5: Derek Shelton
How much input do you have on who gets called up or demoted?

Question 6: Derek Shelton
Can you explain why you change the batting order as often as you do?

Question 7: Derek Shelton
Trying to win with not enough and expecting to win with what you hope is enough are two different things, how do you expect to have to evolve as a coach?

Question 8: Ben Cherington
Has the organization provided you with everything you felt you agreed to have access to since being hired?

Question 9: Ben Cherington
I’m not asking you to disclose your plan, but I’ll simply ask, would you say things are in range of what you expected to play out?

Question 10: Ben Cherington
Jackson Chourio and Milwaukee have agreed to 8-year deal, I’m sure you know the details (but 82 million just in case). Regardless of the amount, would you entertain something like this as a method of locking in talent for a bit less money but a bit more risk?

That’s what I got. I sent them in and I hope they answer one. I think they’re all fair, and I think if answered we’d learn more than being an angry mob and yelling sell the team anyway, lol.

Anyway, fingers crossed!

Hit me with some of yours on Facebook or X.

12-31-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I think it’s fair to say, the phrase “the Pirates need 2-3 starters, maybe 4” has taken root. Optimists, pessimists, and even team officials have acknowledged this need, so it’s not like saying it is controversial, but it’s also projected the impression that the Pirates simply have nothing but gray faces for whatever they don’t fill.

Fangraphs does their Roster Resource all year long on their site, and while I quibble with some of their assumptions on occasion, for “covering” every MLB team and their MiLB systems, they do a damn good job. They also miss on things that we simply know to be true because of our advantage of being here. So, an obvious starter to them is sometimes obviously wrong to us because we’ve heard it different, and they can’t be blamed for missing something little here or there.

I say all that not to argue about them or defame them, I say it instead because for instance, in my breakdown of the Pirates Pitching landscape, lets just say Bailey Falter won’t be in my rotation that heads north, at least not right now.

As we speak, Fangraphs has Mitch Keller, Martin Perez (technically not signed yet but will be), Marco Gonzales, Luis Ortiz and Bailey Falter. Again, I disagree, but who cares they’re just laying a baseline.

Today, I think what we need to do is map out who could realistically help this year and who we can reasonably expect to contribute next year. We’ll talk about their options, service time, all of it. Understanding the depth situation will help us understand exactly what we’ll be dealing with.

For perspective, the Pirates used 10 guys you could consider actual starters last season. Injury, performance, trades, all play into this number and I didn’t even count the artists known as openers. So it stands to reason you can’t just pick 5 and pretend that’s all you’ll use or need.

We also must acknowledge, the team still wants to bring in more, and to say it publicly is to damn near guarantee it. So this list will change, I mean, they could even wind up dealing or DFAing some of these guys.

Definitive Starters to Head North

If I leave your favorite off, I can’t imagine I’ll finish this list without mentioning them.

Mitch Keller (R) – FA 2026 – This is the easiest name on this list. He’ll be there if he’s healthy, and he’ll be there even if he gives up 8 homeruns in Spring and suffers intestinal distress on the mound in a game.
Decisions: His Projected arbitration award is 6 Million. The Pirates can of course negotiate this out, or, they could just offer him a contract to avoid it. This could be a one year pact to kick the can to next year, or an extension. They plan to pick up this conversation shortly.

Marco Gonzales (L) – 15 Million Dollar Option 2025, FA 2026 – This is the easiest name on this list. He’ll be there if he’s healthy, and he’ll be there even if he gives up 8 homeruns in Spring and suffers intestinal distress on the mound in a game.
Decisions: Via trade, the Pirates will manage to only pay Mr. Gonzales 3 million of his owed 12.5 million dollar salary in 2024. Now, he’s neither a 12.5 million dollar pitcher, or a 3 million dollar arm, he’s somewhere in between that. A capable back end of the rotation arm. From 2018 through 2022 he was very much so a capable front of the rotation starter before an injury plagued 2023. If the injury situation is cleared up, he should more than earn the 3 million, and if it weren’t the Pirates, I’d suggest the 15 million could be in play for 2025. It’s much more likely they move him before they have to decide to pick it up but you’ve seen the market, if he’s back to himself, 15 million would be a bargain. He’ll be 32, none of this is insane to think possible, unfortunately, he could be a complete bust too of course.

Martin Perez (L) – FA 2025 – He spent most of last season in the bullpen for the World Series Champion Rangers as he was nosed out of the Rotation by acquisition and to a degree performance. Perez certainly didn’t start out like he was poised to repeat his All Star performance from 2022. That said, this is and has been a good pitcher. Even so, his 20 games started last season would place him 4th on the Pirates 2023 list for most starts. At 32, the soft tosser is not likely to fall off much if at all.
Decisions: The decision on him is more about how the team does and the prospects develop than it is needing to move him to save money or return prospects. That said, every one year signing comes with that caveat. If the team is charging toward a playoff berth, he probably stays, unless he’s been pushed aside by developing prospects. If they do poorly, he probably goes.

Fighting it Out to Head North

I see this as a shorter list than some. And it may not be who the “best” pitchers or prospects are, but pay particular attention to the decisions portion, that’s usually going to be my explanation when a name makes you puke in your mouth a bit.

Bailey Falter (L) – FA 2025 – People keep telling me to have an open mind with Bailey because he did ok with the Pirates after being traded but I don’t know, I’d say he got better results, but his splits are almost dead even from Philly and Pittsburgh and neither are impressive. I also think it’s fair to ask, would the Pirates want 3 relatively soft tossing lefties in their starting rotation? I don’t know, just a thought here. I’d say even if they brought in nobody else, Falter’s path is not super clear.
Decisions: Unlike guys such as Perez up there, Bailey is under team control through 2029 should they want him, and that’s the obvious reason to try, thing is, he’s out of options, so if he isn’t an MLB player, he probably is getting DFA’d. Now, if the Pirates see his path as murky as I do, I could see him being traded or DFA’d just to make room, because if it comes after a full Spring, solid chance he gets taken, which, hey, it’s the price of doing business and making decisions. I also hear him proposed as a bullpen piece, but I don’t see that either. First, they don’t need him with Borucki and Hernandez, but if they do feel he’s that crucial to keep (this is the part I struggle with) they could start Jose Hernandez in AAA as he does have options, maybe as a long man that makes some sense, but it’s a stretch.

Quinn Priester – Rookie Status Intact – Quinn had a 7.74 ERA in 50 innings last year with the big club. There’s no real way around that, it was bad, his WHIP was bad, his Strike out to Walk ratio, completely abysmal. So why are we even discussing this kid? Well, as I’ve said before, with Rookies, you aren’t looking so much for overt numbers as much as improvement, and sometimes that improvement is in very hard to see things. I find it very likely Quinn starts in AAA, but I also find it very likely he doesn’t look like the scared kid he showed in 2023. I’ve seen this kid struggle for the first time really last year, and I think he’s a kid who needed to feel that, experience that, so he could finally understand why the team wanted him to change things that were working just fine for him. There was a slight velocity dip, but as I understand it, the team expects that to rebound as Quinn surpassed his innings count record by a whopping 78 innings. This kid was gassed, and I’ve further been told calling him up was not exactly a wanted outcome last year.
Decisions: As a full blown rookie, really just does he start in AAA or MLB, and I guess, does he wind up part of a package to return more mature help.

Luis Ortiz (R) – Exceeded Rookie Limit 2023 – Ortiz has 2 options, so if they so choose he could start in AAA. Now, I know he didn’t have what any of us would consider a good rookie season, but he gave the Pirates 86.2 innings with a 4.78 ERA. I mean, that’s not exactly worthy of banishment from the island for a rookie. I will say, he suffered for not looking as good as he did in 2022, but all in all, he has more track laid than most players of similar experience level in this system, and it probably gives him an inside track. He’s also been pitching in Winter Ball, and the results aren’t good. This honestly doesn’t matter a lick, but people will bring it up. He’s just stretching his innings out a bit more, hoping to provide more in 2024 and be ready for it.
Decisions: Team control through 2030 here so any decisions don’t need to be permanent. Again a velocity drop for Ortiz was very noticeable. His reduction was more in search of come consistency and commend with the fastball, but it didn’t help much aside from the hitters who didn’t have to fear one coming for their ear. Even if the Pirates add, Ortiz might be the leader in the clubhouse for the 5th spot. I remain firmly convinced at least one spot will be left for a youngster.

Roansy Contreras (R) – FA 2029 – What can you say? 2023 was a mitigated disaster for Roansy. He entered 2023 as what many considered to be an anchor of the rotation for years to come, and he enters 2024 with fans wondering if he’ll survive Spring. His velocity fell off a cliff, his slider stopped getting swings, his curveball stopped catching the zone or inducing swings. In a season he was expected and stretched to provide 160+ innings for the Pirates big club, he only put up 68.1 and bluntly they probably could have removed him earlier. Either way, and regardless of the reason, Roansy fell off a cliff so it’s very hard to pretend he’ll be inaugurated when he gets to Spring Camp.
Decisions: Again, if they want him, he’s theirs through 2028, but he’s out of MiLB options, so much like Falter, the team will have a tough decision. I actually think all the stuff I said for Falter, well, if these two are even come decision time, I can’t say which one I’d choose to keep hoping the bright lights agree with them. Either this is the beginning of a back on track Contreras or it’s the end to a flash in the pan acquisition we’ll always have what ifs about.

Injured & Returning

JT Brubaker – FA 2026 – JT is in Arb 2 and returning from UCL (Tommy John) surgery that he had performed right as the last season started. At best his ETA for return will be sometime in July or August, and that wouldn’t be for a full on Starting role, it would be more opener or relief if after his rehab concludes. He does have MiLB options, so rehab ending doesn’t ensure he must be recalled immediately. I wouldn’t truly consider him an option for a rotation spot at any point during 2024, at least not a load bearing role.
Decisions: They’ve already made the decision on JT that was pressing, they decided to tender him arbitration. His goal this year needs to be showing the team he is healthy and capable of being via his Arb 3 designation in 2025 a viable option for their rotation. Instead of signing a 1 year deal with a FA, JT could be that guy. In order to have that tender issued, I think they’ll have to see something this year, but not as much as you (a fan) probably think they need to see.

Mike Burrows – 40-man Not Yet Debuted – I expect Mike around the same time as JT, if not a bit later as he had his procedure later. He’s never been an MLB pitcher, and I can’t think of a good reason to think they’d rush him after returning from injury. If I had to guess right now, he doesn’t debut in 2023 unless it’s a last series of the year type cup of coffee.
Decisions: None really, just get healthy and lets hit it in 2025 kid.

I’m not mentioning Johan Oviedo here as a formal entry, but he’ll likely be on track for early May/June of 2025 and actually could factor in to some second half talk for that campaign, although it’s super early for prognosticating. As always, lots of ifs on the road to recovery.

Capable of Contributing

I’m not going to go into as much detail for these. Suffice to say, none of these names will have an immediate claim, but they’re all guys capable of making their presence felt and being part of the puzzle.

Max Kranick – Just returned from UCL in the middle of last year and this should give you some perspective on the returns of others. In AAA he started 9 games amassing only 20.2 innings. AKA extremely careful then 5 innings with the big club out of the pen in two outings. Now, he had his procedure later in the year than JT, so it won’t time out, but it shows the early progression for return you should use as a map. They like Max, and it’s been a while but he had a big arm too, he’ll at least get a shot to be a regular AAA starter and being on the 40 you have to count him as MLB depth.

Kyle Nicolas – 4 games, 5.1 innings, there’s nothing meaningful to take from his MLB stats. I think if the Pirates find themselves forced to use him as a starter some really bad things have happened. Doesn’t mean he can’t improve, just means he’s got quite a bit of proving to do, and that’s if the Pirates don’t ultimately see him as a reliever which many scouts do.

Jackson Wolf – Jackson has already debuted in MLB and he’s on the 40-man, but to see him as MLB ready because he has pitched there is to ignore it was an emergency situation in San Diego. He’s not ready, and really shouldn’t be seen as such. I do hope he spends a ton of time with Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in Spring training though, he is 100% in their mold as far as style goes but he’s likely little more than a AAA starter this year

Paul Skenes – I personally won’t put expectations of making the league in 2024 let alone leading the staff on this kid. He’s got a ton of talent, but he deserves a little time to get his head screwed on straight and to iron out some things that are very clearly going to be issues. The scouting report that “he could pitch in MLB right now” is cute and probably true if you only need him to get you 3 outs from the pen, but if you want him to be the stud starter his pedigree suggests, don’t F this up by rushing him.

Jared Jones – Many thought he should have debuted last year, but as I already said, the Pirates weren’t exactly anxious to press Quinn Priester into action and I’m told Jones was a risk they were never going to take. For his own good too, they didn’t think he had innings to give, and he’s still working on refining some troubling issues with some of his secondary pitches. I expect him to get a cup of coffee in 2024 providing he continues to improve. By the end of the season, if healthy, at the very least the Pirates will add him to the 40-man since they’d absolutely have to as soon as the season wrapped anyway.

Braxton Ashcraft and Sean Sullivan are dark horses. Ashcraft is at least on the 40 but arguably farther away than Sullivan who isn’t. I like both of these guys quite a bit, but as I’ve already said for others, there would have to be a ton of things on the injury front go wrong to ever see this happen in 2024.

Conclusion

If I twisted myself into a pretzel I might come up with two more but they’d be the longest of long shots and there’s just no reason to mention them. I also won’t mention any NRI (non-roster invitees) they’ll assuredly sign which will send many of you to the nearest bridge.

That’s 14 pitchers I could see getting a shot at starting. 3 I think everyone involved will consider a lock. 4 I think could push for a shot in April and 7 I consider “quality depth”.

And yes, I still think they need 1 more they can count on, if only to buy more time for some of these names to evolve.

We’re likely to lose or move some of this list, and add to it too, but when we claim they have nobody to start, it’s really more about having very little seasoned, trusted options.

Have a Happy New Year, and let’s hit 2024 as strong as we want the Pirates to attack it.

12-30-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

To some, there must be a switch.

Something visible, something bigger than ever, or different than expected. Call it what you want, it boils down to an indication that the rebuild is over and the “window” is open.

It’s part of why there is so much panic about what the Pirates add or don’t add.

Thing is, at least a big part of the story of this build under this GM is the very absence of a solitary mention of a window, or ramp up, or competitive zone, none of that. They’ve been careful to never let anyone know what exactly they planned on as the end game here.

Now, most of us have our opinions, or guesses. Some go no further than the owner and couldn’t give a rip. There have been misconceptions that this GM set up with this owner some kind of almost savings account, you know, what they don’t spend now they can spend later? Well, we know that’s not what’s happening now. To be fair, nor did they ever tell you it was a thing, that was never anything more than a hopeful assumption by a vocal minority. In fact, this particular “rumor” was pushed by two individuals who no longer write about the Pirates.

Point is, we’re here.

We know what we know and we have seen what we’ve seen. Today, let’s talk about some areas I think we’ve learned about since Ben Cherington was brought in, and a few stabs at where I think it’s going too.

1. The Trades

The first thing to mention here is just how little the Pirates have had to deal to kick this rebuild off in the first place. Something I suggested back in 2020 they’d be wise to address this by adding talent to a team they planned to blow up. This would have potentially given them a wider base of players to move out and stock the system faster and hopefully with a bit more depth up to and including MLB ready talent. This could have potentially shortened this effort, but as I understand it, even if the GM wanted to take this approach, the likelihood it would have been greenlit is slim, and yes, I’ve actually heard that.

The other thing they could have done is to move Josh Bell who’s value would never be higher right when they moved Starling Marte. In other words, they could have blown it all the way up right then and right there, even Keller and Reynolds, absolute Oakland Style implosion. They lost the equivalent of 100 games 3 straight years, how much worse would it be?

What they chose, was a methodical piece by piece approach to both stocking the system and deciding which pieces would become part of the core.

So far, I’d have to say the Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier trades were the best “big” moves they pulled together, but unless some things happen with a few players, the Taillon trade looks like a stinker. The Josh Bell trade an unmitigated disaster, and he hasn’t even been all that good since being moved.

They’ve found one sure fire star in a trade so far, David Bednar. Jack Suwinski has a shot at it, Liover Peguero is just getting started, but is also symbolic of the very beginning of this effort.

Johan Oviedo looked like a potential nice piece in the Jose Quintana deal, but we’ll have to put that on pause.

Smaller deals like for Conner Joe or even this latest one for Olivares, well, he’s done pretty well on those types of things so it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

All in all, it’s early to really know on some of what he’s traded for, but I can’t sit here and tell you I see any “Oneil Cruz Types” emerging from his lottery tickets. Best bet so far is Bednar if you just want to point to a star. Jack has a shot too if he progresses further.

2. Letting Talent Slip Away

Aside from the obvious trades, which are important for acquiring the type of young controllable talent this club feels they have to win with, you also can’t miss on what you do move out or allow to go.

So far, there are very few on this list.

It’s so thin, I might be nice and give you Blake Sabol, truth be told, I don’t see this as a painful loss, but many of you do so I’ll acknowledge on a short list, sure, you’d rather not let this go for nickels on the dollar.

I want to put Clay Holmes here but man, I thought he really fell off last year. I’ll still leave him on the list, again, it’s thin.

I can’t think of any DFA guys who really blew up somewhere.

Any prospects they moved to bring in the small adds they’ve grabbed so far, no big loss so far.

I honestly think in a few years when Andre Jackson is wanting to come back from Japan for 35 million over 3 years we might regret him leaving? But again, it’s thin.

Adam Frazier has largely been a bad player since being moved. Josh Bell has been what he was, inconsistent, but capable of putting on a show.

OK, I got one. Joe Musgrove. And yes, I say this acknowledging we wouldn’t have Endy or David Bednar.

Yeah, that’s my one. And yes, they’d have had to extend him, but he wanted it, and much like Keller as we speak, hadn’t earned mega bucks yet, just faith and a contract.

Joe Musgrove is the one player in 4 years I’m truly in the poopy pants position eating sour grapes. This whole thing is light years further ahead with Joe and Mitch at the top of the rotation.

We haven’t lost a single minor league player I’ve lost sleep over if I’m being honest.

3. Drafts Were Easy

I can’t really identify much about Ben Cherington from his drafts. First, he is on record as being the type of GM who off shores almost all the prep and recommendation work to his scouting and development team, and then blesses his choice based on their work.

Well, having the 1:1, making each selections without either being a reach is straight chalk. If anything, I can give him credit for not thinking he was smarter than anyone in baseball (more accurately not told to be as overtly cheap) by selecting players nobody had in their top 10 let alone top 2 or 3 with those selections.

The draft has changed too, the slotting system really eliminates most of the drama that your 1:1 might not sign.

The only one in which he really got creative was the 2021 Henry Davis draft. Henry was absolutely in the conversation for number 1 overall, but nobody was a lock. And, to his credit, he’s already here to prove it wasn’t unwarranted. That said, they signed him underslot and really hauled in some nice high ranked talents in later rounds using their surplus.

We have yet to see how it plays out entirely, but it was the only different looking thing we saw in the draft. Aside from that, a couple patterns have emerged.

First, he loves college bats, and especially guys who have played in wood bat league showcases.

We now know he’s not afraid of pitching in round one although technically we learned that with Carmen Mlodzinski already, and we know he’s not afraid to draft a high school arm or bat.

4. Everyone Suffers Injuries, but…

All teams deal with injuries, but the Pirates injuries have been costly regardless of that timeless truth.

JT Brubaker, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mike Burrows, heck even Roberto Perez, Johan Oviedo, Max Kranick, have all missed or will miss the majority of seasons. I didn’t even mention guys like Jarlin Garcia who never threw a pitch in a regular season game.

The Pirates didn’t have more injuries than others, but depth is a very thin mask on a team that isn’t spending enough to force some MLB talent into AAA.

The pitching staff has never been built to survive anything major. At best they’ve had 6 or 7 you might want to see, and never more than 2 or 3 you truly felt good about at any one time.

So, they’ve had injuries, but as we’ve been in the throws of a build, they’ve never had the depth to survive any of them.

Just now you’re getting to the point where you could survive in some spots because the depth is there, but not many, and for sure not on the mound yet.

5. Development Wins and Losses

This one is tough. Who gets credit for what? What constitutes too long? Is it too early to judge at all?

I can give them points for identifying and at least not hurting David Bednar. He certainly looked like a throw in on that deal and man did he turn out to be more and right away too.

Mitch Keller is a good one, but his might be more a story of timing and patience. Most pitchers won’t get that kind of opportunity and it took a perfect storm to keep the door open for Mitch and even with all of that he was demoted to the bullpen somewhere in there. It’s uncommon patience you can’t count on for future finds.

Hayes has done some great things, but he was a gold glover when they got here in the minors and even with injuries, it has taken almost 4 years of baseball to kinda sorta start to trust he might maybe be a hitter too.

Reynolds if we’re really honest has been very non linear. His bad is better than most. His good is ok enough, his great is better than most. We’ll see if the Pirates can get him to find Better than most more often.

Carmen Mlodzinski was a pretty fast move through the system, but bullpen guys do that on occasion.

Lots of stutters in the middle infield, including Cruz being unclear. Between their insistence to wait to call him up and his injury, we just haven’t seen much yet.

Nothing has emerged for first base. Catcher they almost seem afraid to realize they have to watch some pain with someone or they’ll never develop anyone.

Pitching is the spot where we just haven’t seen enough. OK, Keller again, and no, I don’t care if a player gets outside help. Little secret here, they all do. Oviedo came along, and Brubaker had become very serviceable, end of the day, after 4 years of acquiring, scouting, developing and drafting players, you can’t look at today’s 5 man rotation with Keller at the very top all by himself and claim they’ve done a good job in this area.

To the Future my friends!

1. Top Reason’s to Believe It’s on the Right Track

Young pitching is 75% of the Pirates top 20 prospects list, and a decent percentage of that is close to league ready. That doesn’t mean even 2 of them will pan out, but in 4 years I can honestly say they went from 2 or 3 interesting starting pitching prospects to well over 15 right now, some of which already have MLB experience.

These things tend to even out and even if you have a blind squirrel finding a nut situation here, I like the odds of coaxing a pitcher or three out of what’s right there and that won’t even touch the much younger depth we won’t discuss before 2027.

Beyond that, I’d say they’ve already shown a willingness to lock up some talent, and while I never think we’ll see a payroll north of 160 without league changes, I think strategically they can lock up enough to never reach critical mass and have to tear it all the way down again. If they so choose.

Finally, the team improved by 14 games last year, and I think this roster right this second is stronger than what they opened with last year.

2. Top Reasons to Believe It’ll Never Get There

Easy peazy. I don’t ever see Bob Nutting paying above his comfort zone to reach for that extra oomph you might need when everything looks like it’s come together. Let’s say he has everything in place to make a run, and boom, down goes a big starter. Is Bob going to replace that guy with a 6 million dollar arm, or is he going to let Ben call on some “insurance policy” if you will and go get done what they need to get done to not waste this chance? That’s really always been an unanswerable question, well, for those of us who haven’t already decided what Nutting will do. We can all assume, we just don’t know.

The pitching is behind and if we learned anything from Keller, Brubaker, Oviedo, you know, the guys we call “successes” as far as developing arms goes for the rotation, it’s that this can take a long time. The pitchers not arriving at the same time as the bats puts this whole thing in jeopardy. It’s the boogie man of this whole thing, if they fail here and won’t spend to fix the swing and miss, well, you’ve seen this movie before.

Finally, the coaching. I fully believe Derek Shelton is seen as more of a partner to Cherington than an employee. He has been given autonomy over his staff and how he’s on boarded all this talent. This season he will have more than he’s ever been given, and the ceiling unlike most season won’t be as pre-determined. It also has to be the year he either proves he has what it takes or he doesn’t.

This whole thing is in a good place, so long as you didn’t expect a World Series by 2024. I expect them to pry the window of playoff contention open this year, and if they fail I expect 2025 they’ll get it done, but I make no bones, where it goes from here is largely dependent on how willing they are to admit they’ve made mistakes, and ultimately pay to fix them.

12-29-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I’ve thought about this a bunch this offseason, and out of the blue my friend Billy Tissue on Facebook basically asks, why no Keller extension or trade buzz like we had with Reynolds last year?

It’s a great question.

Think about it from every conceivable angle.

Both of these guys when reaching Arb 2 were undisputed leaders of their position groups. Both were considered “stars”. Both were not scheduled to head out the door as a free agent in the following year.

And yet, here we are on December 29th, knowing Keller is tendered, headed for arbitration, we’ve had a vague whisper about the two sides talking extension soon and next to no murmurs even about possibly dealing him.

The easiest answer is probably the most important here, and that’s different representation. Bryan Reynolds is represented by CAA, and while every player I know who is repped by them is exceedingly happy with both the job they do and the treatment of their family as well, fact is they do some pretty unconventional stuff as we just saw with Shohei Ohtani.

They and of course Reynolds himself decided the best way to get the Pirates motivated would be to demand a trade claiming an impasse in negotiations. Water under the bridge, but some of how that played out, well, it hasn’t really happened a ton in this sport.

It’s also more than that.

The national writers aren’t bursting at the seams trying to sell off all the Pirates good players at the moment either are they? Wonder why that might be?

This is why. They can’t acknowledge the progress of a “build” or “rebuild” until such a time as it’s begun to cost some money, or the team “spends” regardless of what it does to the payroll by investing in a player they want to keep. Point is, the Pirates are better now, and they’ve known all along who was and wasn’t available from this team, and why.

As the team starts to improve, well, much like Baltimore, you stop hearing all off season about your star with 2 years left “could be available”, which turns into fake proposals from fake people until finally someone legitimate confirms that a phone call happened.

You know what I mean. The snowball effect of crap as it rolls down Twitter or Facebook.

Keller isn’t getting the buzz for those fairly academic reasons, but more than that, I don’t think, despite the All Star bid last year, Mitch is universally seen as “one of those guys”. I mean, here in Pittsburgh, he’s a Brussel Sprout served to a starving man. But Nationally, I rarely see him on lists his numbers absolutely suggest he should be on.

As fans, we probably are missing the boat if we don’t recognize now is the time to strike on Mitch, or he very much so will not be in the Pirates self imposed budgetary plans. Another half season of doing what he did last year, on a team that hopefully is hitting better so he’s getting his generic win numbers and deeper outings don’t always have to be 1 hitter gems, he’ll get his flowers and dollars.

In some ways, Mitch Keller is more crucial than Bryan Reynolds was. I don’t say that to suggest Reynolds was unimportant in any way, but to ever do anything, this team must have elite pitching. Mitch Keller isn’t that yet, but he has at least close to it in him, and right this second, there is want to on both sides to get this done. If this one goes public in a negative fashion, there won’t just be a team or two poking around, and that’ll be all it takes to prove out my statement on whom is more crucial.

I’ve said a million times now, there are a ton of ways to build a team, keeping your own when you discover and work your ass off to develop them is one I’d accept even if it came instead of high priced free agents. At least it’s a direction, at least it has a building effect that ensures payroll continues to grow, even if it winds up being baby steps, I can accept it.

Hayes and Reynolds getting done gives me hope that at least some of this is part of the overall plan, but to me, you can’t ask for a more perfect combination for an extension possibility in the starting rotation.

He looks great, struggled long enough to both not demand the sun moon and stars, and to potentially even feel a bit grateful for how many shots he got the figure it out in the process too.

Go ahead, give him a raise in arbitration, a pat on the ass and “make him show you more”. It won’t be 6 starts before his Agent is updating his market price come 2026. When you ask players to prove it to you, and they do, don’t expect they’re just going to take the number they had and you pushed back on, lol, that’s gone. Nope, you want it proven, well, you best Rod Tidwell that piece.

I don’t think missing on Keller is a mistake this team can make. It’s not even about believing Mitch is a future Cy Young winner, or better than so and so, it’s really more about having a guy who’s really figured it out, and wants to be here, and taking a five minute look at the starting pitching free agency market.

8 million for one year, for a guy who didn’t even start last year, who I actually like by the way in Martin Perez, man I see the prices out there and all I can say is please please dear god don’t piss around with Keller.

It’s played out quietly for now, but if it takes a turn I don’t think they’ll get a second bite at the apple like Reynolds gave them, I also don’t think Reynolds ever had Free Agency numbers like I’m quite sure Keller will see dangled in front of his nose.

Here are the facts, and yes, you have to force yourself to forget all the terrible Mitch pitching you’ve watched, because I promise you, the industry will the very second he’s a free agent.

Last year, Mitch threw almost 200 innings, had a slightly over 4 ERA and a 1.245 WHIP. A ton of swing and miss which teams love and if left un-extended he’ll reach free agency as a 30 year old pitcher right in the heart of his prime. He’s not at his peak yet, but he’s on track to be right around 2025.

The Pirates plan to be good from 2024 through at least 2028 or so, barring developmental wins and shrewd trades (I know their history, spare me), so one would think, you probably need to make sure Mitch who’s last year would be 2025 you’d want to lock up for at least 3 years of his free agency, maybe 4.

That would be if signed right now a 5-6 year deal, absorbing this year.

Aaron Nola is a great comp. You probably see him as a super star pitcher, that’s ok, I do too, he is. I only point it out because it’s probably not how you see Keller, and to be fair, Nola has done it for a while, Mitch took more time to warm to the task.

Regardless, Nola’s numbers last year as a 29 year old soon to be free agent, 4.56 ERA, 1.151 WHIP and around 200 innings.

As a 30 year old free agent, he just got paid in the year of 2023, 7 years, 172, 000,000 or roughly 24 million per season.

Mitch is going to get paid.

If they approach him with an extension, you’d get a discount in AAV for buying out two years of arbitration, and right this second, there is still an element of risk to Mitch.

But this deal is going to have to be 5-6 years to make sense for the team and I’d be shocked to see them get out of it for less than 17 AAV, meaning 5-6 years and 85-97.

That’s on the low end, I could see this as high as 110. Either way, we’re looking at close to if not the biggest contract extension they’ve ever signed.

This should be, and isn’t a slam dunk.

What I’m describing here, is getting a player who looks like he’ll perform to a 24 million dollar AAV comp, and you could probably get it done for 17-20.

I can’t do better than this to explain why their decision on Keller will show me more about this regime than any other single thing that’s happened in their tenure.

I mean, have you even seen anyone float what Keller’s numbers could or maybe should look like? What does that make you think?

It tells me, if this kid hits the regular season quarter pole and doesn’t have an extension, I’ve got some very big questions about where the established pitching comes from, because I bet if I put that dollar figure and number of years out there like 4 years 80 million for Eduardo Rodriguez, would you laugh and tell me no way they do that?

I bet you would, know why? They never have. But we do have them now twice extending much as I’ve suggested Hayes and Reynolds, so please Pirates, surprise me, do the right thing to keep this ball rolling in the right direction for a while.