Steel City Pirates

Minor League News And Brews: Rule 5 Draft Recap

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-xsvpx-151e389

Craig talks about the one player-out of five-from his Rule 5 Draft Preview that was selected, the potential meaning(s) behind a quiet day on the Major League side of things, before breaking down who the Pirates selected and who they lost in the Minor League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

This Pirates Catching Situation Could Change Perceived Plans

12-6-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The way the Pirates have handled the on boarding of Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis to the Major Leagues has been frustrating, confusing, poorly communicated on all fronts, but now that we have a wealth more clarity on some of what will and won’t be happening, it’s time to drop all our preconceived notions of who was the catcher, who is, how they’ll be used, everything.

I’m sure some are going to say “poorly communicated?” and either lecture me about why the team doesn’t owe us anything like that or whatever, and it’s true, they don’t. That said, when the decisions of the organization start to effect the perception of a player with the fans, or media, and you go out of your way to not clear the air, or properly explain why your 1:1 selection couldn’t dare catch last year, to me it crosses into a responsibility to the player you’re supposed to care about. Why make them fight through all that while trying to build a relationship with the city?

I ask these questions because, we’ve seen this club bring a guy off the street to catch. We saw this club throw Josh VanMeter back there. So by not defining why Henry couldn’t catch in 2023, like at all, you left us to speculate, in fact, worse than that, coaches directly talked to his inability to catch for myriad reasons, so it’s not all phantom guestimations by the blogging and journo crews. Some fans left the door open. Some just grew frustrated. Some wondered why the team would select a player who couldn’t play the needed position he was drafted to play. Some jumped straight to he must be unplayable back there, you know, while being forced to watch him be unplayable in RF which only made them think my God if he’s this bad in RF and playing there, how friggin’ bad is he as a Catcher?

That about cover it?

I mean, why would a team want fans left to feel any of that? Why would you want fans to even approach thinking your 1:1 is in any way “broken”?

Ok, I’m sorry, I usually am not a spilled milk type with this stuff, but this whole thing was a huge PR disaster if you ask me and before I even approach the baseball implications here, I just had to address it. A very simple we’ve chosen not to have him catch this year, to focus him would have sufficed. It’s still vague, it’s still crap probably, but it also doesn’t make it seem like he’s feverishly training in the background trying to reach like VanMeter level ability so he can get in a game.

Now, lets talk a little about what we know at the moment.

The Pirates have 4 catchers on the 40-man roster. Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Ali Sanchez and Jason Delay. Endy being a switch hitter is the only left handed option.

All four, will focus on catching.

We’ve been told that Henry may play other positions, but catching will be his focus. We’ve been told Endy is not likely to play first base, and is focusing on catching.

Sanchez has a 2-way contract so he could start in AAA, Jason Delay has 3 options and could also start in AAA but it feels unlikely they’ll carry 4 on the 40-man right?

OK, let’s break down what this could mean, how it could play out, you know, what we do, let’s talk about it.

True Competition

Henry and Endy directly compete for the catching position and the team truly has an open mind about someone winning it. Factor in everything, defense, hitting, ability to play elsewhere (which in the bigs anyway, we haven’t seen either do well). The winner is the starter, the “loser” maybe starts as the backup/dh/position X.

Biggest question here is, if one of them doesn’t hit or perform in another way would the team consider starting either of them in the minors? Like let’s say it plays out like this…Endy handily wins the defensive battle, but Henry out hits him by a country mile and plays passible defense. What do they do? History tells us they’d lean defense here, but folks, when’s the last time they made that decision while actually having the offensive option viable? When’s the last time a 1:1 is the odd man out? Free agency of course, they’ve chosen defense every time, but when it’s actually on the roster, I can’t say I know which way they’d lean.

There still has to be a measure of concern about number of at bats these guys are getting. In other words, there can’t be a scenario in which one of them plays 5 games a week and the other 2. For this to work, they really must have one of them minimally establish the ability to play at least average defense elsewhere. And even then, they may have to consider carrying a true backup catcher because when you deploy both in the field it can get hairy quick. Not occasionally, but if you do it on the regular, you increase the chances of finding yourself with Conner Joe emergency catcher for the last three innings. This also takes into account the work the backup catcher tends to do during and before games as it comes to planning, handling warming pitchers when the catcher has been on base or hitting, charting. Coaches can handle all of that, but it’s good to have a trained catcher who can help make the information count when relaying it.

Honestly, I don’t know how this works, but I’m excited to see how it plays out.

Earn It

Most fans, me included, have long since moved on to Endy and Henry on this roster together from day one through day 162 if healthy.

They both have the pedigree, they both have shown flashes, but neither of them should be handed a spot. They’ve both been given a stretch now, and we’ve seen some of the warts. That’s ok, you’ll have that with kids, almost always, but now Henry has to hit, and so does Endy.

Both of course have excuses beyond just being rookies. Henry dealt with injuries, Endy focused so hard on defense, which to his credit really visibly improved, he just looked lost at the plate for most of his time in MLB.

There is something to be said for both perhaps having nothing left to learn in AAA, I could see that as plausible, but when it’s time to win, you can’t always afford to let someone ride the struggle bus because they’re supposed to be good.

I’ll also say, if one of them were to have to go down, the at bat situation probably has more to do with it than anything, and I also believe they’d probably still be sending down one of their best 26. The position competition, and the lack of clarity about what or whom would potentially play alternate positions makes this murky. I’ll say it again, one of these guys can’t just rot on the bench, and even a 4-3 split is short changing the progress either of them can make at the position or at the plate. Again, maybe that’s ok, I’ve never seen it.

Anywhere.

But if anyone will figure it out it’s the brain trust down at 115 Federal Str…… LOL, I’m sorry, I can’t even risk someone missing the sarcasm.

Why Not Just Pick One and Move One to Another Spot Now?

It makes some sense, for the shear fact, I just described what it might look like if they’re both successful. Again, a 4-3 split unless there are other positions in play, doesn’t get the job done. Now, you get to 2025, both these guys are entrenched a bit god willing, you leave the DH spot open instead of bringing a legend back, OK, it could work.

Here’s the best argument I have for why we’re going to go through this.

Think about the league for a minute. I know, sounds weird but hear me out. Think about how many truly offensively and defensively gifted and productive catchers are in the league right now.

JT Realmuto, Adley Rutschman, Will Smith, Sean Murphy, I mean that’s my list. Do you want d’Arnaud or Kirk, maybe even Contreras, either of them.

OK, so I got 4 I think are really good all around catchers, maybe you have 6 or 7, well, last I checked, there are 32 teams in MLB.

What the Pirates have right now are 2 shots at getting one. I mean there are at best that miniscule number of these types of players in the league and here we are talking ourselves into circles like we already have 2 of them ready to rock.

Folks the cold hard truth is, if either of them are added to that short list, that’s great, but it’s no guarantee. They could both be good players, but you know what I mean, one of them becomes on the short list for the All Star Game every year, that type.

This year kinda needs to play out, and with both of these guys because deciding one of them isn’t that right now when you think they both have that potential would be like buying two scratch off tickets, and never scratching one off. God forbid the one you chose fails too. If you think about it, they really might be more scared of not getting one than I am about misusing both.

Bottom line, I think they have to walk a tightrope in 2024 between what’s best for the team’s record and what best ensures that by 2025, one of them is a starting catcher. If both of them turn into that, well…

So, What if Both Become a Player Like That?

Ahh you sick optimist, I knew you were out there secretly being me pretending you fed me this crazy premise to discuss. I just talked about the odds being against this, but folks, they both legitimately could be good players. So we should discuss what happens if one doesn’t decisively win it and at least banish the other to their shiny new position to man.

For one thing, and yes, we have to discuss this because we’re Pirates fans, if they progress together and neither has to go to AAA, their service clocks will be locked together.

Let me ask you this, could the Pirates extend two JT Realmuto’s without going the 8 year 80 million shot on a kid deal? Probably not, probably already too late. Reality dictates 4 years from now, one of these guys is either already traded, or actively being shopped. A team like this can’t afford that much in one spot, and moving one would likely bring back a truly valuable player.

I’m not smiling about making you mad right now, and you can’t prove it. lol Folks, it’s not that I look forward to it, but if they both turn out to be dual threat catchers with diverse skill sets that allow them to play elsewhere, you know, the dream, I’m sorry, one won’t be here through arbitration and it’ll take every ounce of Ben Cherington’s negotiating power to convince the owner to pay for the other to stay longer.

You know I’m right. You’ve watched it.

Bluntly though, while I dramatize Mr. Nutting’s cheapness for laughs, I will also point out the Dodgers would probably handle it the same way, save maybe the begging for extension cash.

In the meantime though, man it could be a really fun dynamic, not unlike what Atlanta has going on with Murphy and d’Arnaud. Murphy started red hot, cooled off and d’Arnaud picked him up, then when they were both hot one DH’d. It worked well, but we’ll see how long the Braves stick with it. d’Arnaud has an 8 million dollar price tag this year and an option for next at the same price. I don’t know about you, but I don’t see them holding that and Murphy for 3 full seasons.

Just like I don’t see the Pirates doing the same.

Maybe I’m wrong, but hey, we’d be arguing about what i find to be already a long shot thing occurring in the first place, so let’s put a pin in it.

I will say, this IS still a good, hell, great thing! Think about it, you’re already in a better place competition wise, and now you have this redundant, and expensive piece to sell for more guys to keep this thing rolling. It’s what the Rays do every year. It’s why they’re shopping Randy Arozarena, he isn’t a free agent until 2027, but they’ll put the for sale sign up now, get people salivating, and then pull back and claim they chose to keep him this year, even as they argue over a 7 million dollar arb battle. Next year, they’ll post it again, and this time when they get many of the same offers they got maybe with an extra piece because they said no last time, the Rays will sell 2 years instead of 3 for more prospect capital and make the buyer feel they got a bargain.

Ok, sorry, that has nothing to do with our catchers, I’m just saying, if you sit in awe of how the Rays are “always good” and don’t bother to understand why or how they do it, well, I guess you deserve to not understand it.

Look folks, I think this is gonna feel awkward this year, and I don’t know how Derek Shelton will handle it. I can say, as a former catcher, he should understand the strings he’s pulling more than someone who hasn’t done it. But this is a very unique situation, and it’s fair to say, I expect some mistakes to be made.

Don’t worry, George Washington made mistakes too and we still won the war, he had a gift that I haven’t seen often enough here in Pittsburgh though, an ability to admit mistakes and immediately implement corrective action.

Pirate Start To Add Depth

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-w8ssc-1519cf6

Craig and Chris sit down to discuss the early storylines of the Winter Meetings, as well as some moves that the Pirates made prior to and during the beginning of the pre-Christmas getaway/retreat for GM’s, Coaches, Beat Writers and National Media Members.

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Know Your Enemy – Milwaukee Brewers 2023 & Beyond

12-5-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

The 2023 NL Central champions are going to see some changes this year. Some, like letting Brandon Woodruff go, make sense financially given his injury and contract status. But the rumors of a Burnes trade do not have to happen. Their roster features some steady veteran performers and a whole lot of younger players looking to establish themselves. This team is good enough to be a division winner yet again. We will see what direction they ultimately take, but let’s look around the organization and see the lay of the land, shall we?

Pitchers

Corbin Burnes – There are already some whispers that Milwaukee might trade their big dog. Burnes is set to hit free agency in 2025, so these rumors have some grounding in reality. If the team doesn’t think they will be willing to pay the man long term, moving him now would probably net them a “better” return. However, this division is WIDE open. Navigating this is not easy. Frankly, I’d say keep him and try to win it.

Burnes was not quite as good in 2023. Make no mistake though, he was still very good. He is an absolute king when it comes to surrendering weak and poor-quality contact. Strikeouts dropped through, so I can see why some fans might be disappointed. But fear not, he is still quite legit.

Freddy Peralta – Freddy P had a great 2023. Reached a career high in IP and games started, his entire arsenal was excellent, and he piled up Ks (210!). This version of Freddy was very close to his breakout in 2021. Injury is probably his main obstacle to having a nice run of “prime” years ahead.

Brandon Woodruff – Brandon Woodruff is no longer a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. In a sort of shocking move, the Brewers non-tendered Woodruff on November 17, 2023. Woodruff is expected to miss almost the entire 2024 season and is a UFA in 2025. He will almost certainly be signed and stashed, but it is a risky venture. When he was on the mound in 2023, he was an ace. Whoever signs him will likely need to sign him long term and trust he can return for them in 2025.

Adrian Houser – Houser had a pretty OK 2023. He is a solid, above replacement level starter that can probably give this team another good chunk of innings. Maybe 130+ IP of 1+ fWAR baseball?

Colin Rea – Rea is very similar to Houser. So similar that we could plug the “pointing Spiderman meme” in here. Put him down for about 130ish IP of 1-1.5 fWAR.

Bullpen Bullet Points

Devin Williams – The man with the airbender finally got his shot to be a closer. He did not disappoint. Total stud.

Joel Payamps – Experienced a major breakout in 2022. Looked mostly legit hurling 70 near-elite set-up innings. Bullpen projection is oftentimes tough, he has a chance to stick though.

Abner Uribe – My goodness is the stuff loud here. Uribe kind of came out of nowhere. Only 3 minor league IP in all of 2022 and just 23 purely dominating IP in the minors in 2023. Called up and was immediately nasty in 30.2 MLB innings. One to watch.

Hitters

Jackson Chourio – Early offseason rumors look to be coming to fruition. The Brewers appear to be set to ink Chourio to the richest contract ever given to a yet to debut player. 8 years for 80 million dollars along with 2 team options. These contracts come with the risk that a player simply might not figure it out at the major league level. But the cost/benefit here has an equally massive upside. At worst Chourio shares the “best prospect in baseball” mantle with Wyatt Langford, and Jackson Holliday in a 1A/1B/1C situation. Chourio is a beast. A power/speed mutant that also made plate approach strides in AA as a 19-year-old.

Chourio is my personal #1 prospect in the sport. One of the only current prospects with a Ronald Acuna Jr./Fernando Tatis Jr sort of skill set & ceiling. All prospects have risk, and even the most talented ones have a learning curve once they are called up. But he looks like a future all-star & possible megastar.

William Contreras – This may surprise you to learn, but, by fWAR, William Contreras was the best catcher in all of baseball in 2023. He was both a terrific hitter and defender in 2023. His power numbers were a bit lower than I would have expected, but the hit tool was really good. The power should tick up some even. Great player.

Christian Yelich – I think that I wrote this in every single month of the season, but Christian Yelich is still very good. Lots of folks seem to not agree because the gaudy, MVP caliber numbers are mostly gone. But I will never understand penalizing a player for simply being really good & not great. I will also not discount his still being good because he got paid after posting back-to-back 7+ fWAR seasons. He earned what he got, in my opinion. All the tools and ingredients are there for him to remain a 2.5-4 fWAR guy for a while longer.

Willy Adames – Adames is settling in to a nice career at this point. Quietly posting 3+ fWAR seasons in three consecutive years now. His batting average and likely his statistical output overall took a dip due to a low BABIP, this figures also may be tied to his declining speed. There is a possibility that his game trends more toward being a lower average slugger as he rounds in to his prime “grown man” years. Given that he is an impending UFA in 2025, there is an outside chance that we see his name pop up in trade rumors as soon as this offseason as well.

Sal Frelick – The 2021 first round pick made his debut in 2023 and it was almost exactly as billed. A strong, strong plate approach, quite valuable defense, great on-base skills, with below-average thump. His profile is not one that gets me particularly excited, but there is no denying that he is probably going to be a long-term Major League OF. The batted ball data was not particularly inspiring in his 57-game rookie year, but I expect him to be a double plus speed, plus defense, average to above average hit tool player for the Brew Crew going forward.

Garrett Mitchell – Mitchell had piping hot 17 game debut before being felled by injury for the remainder of the season in 2023. Hard to get a true read on Mitchell in that small sample, but he flashed the ceiling at times as a power/speed option. He also flashed the issue with swing & miss. Not a lot to glean from it other than he looks like he could be fun assuming he gets his health back for 2024.

Joey Wiemer – Frequent readers will know that Joey Wiemer is one of my guys. Tyler O’Neill 2.0 skillset, but with premium centerfield defense. If Wiemer is able to cut his whiff issue down, he will have a chance to be a legitimate MLB star. He’s a power/speed freak for a man his size & is capable of playing near elite CF defense. Whiff and approach issues can totally derail a player, it is true. But Wiemer is as tooled up as almost anyone. It seems to be assumed that Mitchell is going to get an everyday job over him, but I am not so sure!

Jake Bauers – Former top prospect for the Tampa Bay Rays, he was dealt to Cleveland in exchange for Yandy Diaz (oops!) and was never able to put it together. Since then he has kicked around (Cleveland, Seattle, Yankees) and found some modest success in the Yankees lineup in 2023. This has the feel of a placeholder player, but it is worth mentioning that in a small sample size, Bauers had some interesting underlying data. He had above MLB-average EVs, barrel rate, xSLG, xwOBA, & wOBACON. No real idea if it will roll over, but there could be a little meat on the bone here for a post-post-post-post hype former top prospect breakout.

Brice Turang – I almost skipped Turang, but figured we needed to at least mention the 2018 first round selection. He is very fast (96th percentile sprint speed), and he played solid defense at 2B. The bat looked not ready for primetime, but in AAA he was a pretty well rounded hitter. If the bat clicks he could be a sort of Tommy Edman-lite type of player for Milwaukee. If it doesn’t, there isn’t much shot of him remaining a regular.

Farmhands

In the Cardinals Farmhands section I decided to not mention a ton of players, but with the Brew Crew, it would be a disservice not to discuss a few more. They have a significant rising tide of young players. Many of whom we should see in 2024.

Tyler Black – Tyler Black had an enormous breakthrough in 2023. Terrific approach, mega speed, the power popped off between AA/AAA too. He has all sorts of infield versatility so there are at least two positions where he could fit as soon as the team can get him to town (1B/3B). I am a little hesitant to say he has a “star” ceiling, but he looks destined to be a very good Major League player, and soon.

Jeferson Quero – As if Milwaukee needed another young impact bat, they were aggressive with Quero in 2023 and he handled it well. He manned primary catching duties in AA all year at just 20 years old. Typically catchers are slower to develop given the demands of the position, but he looks to be one of the premium hitters at this position in the minor leagues. Possibly has a chance to see the Bigs in 2024.

Robert Gasser – Gasser had a really nice season at AAA. He does not seem to offer top of the rotation sort of play, but he looks the part of being a Major League starting pitcher. He took care of business at AAA and he will almost certainly get a look for the Crew this year.

Jacob Misiorowski – Big time, monster stuff. Miso was one of the big pitching prospect risers in the game this past year. Control is a little wonky, but the stuff & K potential is devastating. Got a taste of the upper minors and the strikeout stuff was there, but control went out the window. One of the most enticing pitchers in the minors based on pure stuff.

Eric Brown Jr. – Suffered an injury that set his development back some in ‘23. Prior to going down he did flash the wheels and hit tool that made him an interesting prospect. He is a player I will be watching closely to see if he can take the “Tyler Black” leap this upcoming season.

The Brewers are in a position where 2024 is somewhere between a “transition” point, they could deal away Burnes theoretically or even shop Yelich to make room for their young OFs (Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer), they could stand pat, or do they even look to add? The Central is open to all comers at this point. I think the Brewers have the pieces to take the NLC again, especially if a guy like Chourio comes up and gives them a huge boost right away.

Following their remaining offseason moves is going to be fascinating. Until next time!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – The Winter Meetings

12-4-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Exciting times in baseball, well, at least it’s supposed to be. Nashville is a fun city so here’s hoping these GM’s get something done aside from ogling Carrie Underwoods gams. Let’s jump right in.

1. The Rule 5 Draft 12/6

You aren’t hearing much about this subject this offseason are you? Couple reasons for that, first, the Pirates really shouldn’t be playing in this talent acquisition pool this year. Any holes they have being filled in this fashion would minimally be seen as inadequate. Even in the shadow of success cast by Jose Hernandez last year, the 2024 Pirates can’t afford to on board someone, so the only way they can select a player would be if they saw another bullpen candidate like Hernandez that they feel they won’t have to hide, and even then, you have to prepared to see one scary thing and cut ties without wasting a spot into the season. If this were like 2022 I’d suggest taking a swing on Carlos De La Cruz the power hitting OF/1B combo from Philly. Strikes out a ton. Here’s the thing, he reminds me of a less powerful Mason Martin, but at 6’8″, and athletic enough to legit play OF and 1B, that’s an intriguing guy someone might take a run at, he’s their 6th ranked prospect.

For that reason, I’m simply not going to list a bunch of guys they might grab, I just don’t see it as a viable thing this year, and nobody takes a rule 5 selection and asks them to be a member of the rotation, so get that out your head. Well, maybe the 2021 Pirates or 2024 A’s could.

Instead, we’ll focus on who the Pirates could lose and even here, I’m not going to go through every name, only the ones I truly feel could get selected.

Yes, yes, they lost Blake Sabol last year, and yes, he hit some homers, bluntly, I’d trade Sabol for Hernandez, and that’s kinda what happened. lol

Matt Gorski – Number 20 prospect, He’s fast, he has power, he’s big, athletic, can play the outfield well and a little 1B. His health and especially this year the strikeout hold him back. Look, if I suggested De La Cruz up there, I have to acknowledge Gorski as a potential target.

Joe Perez – Released by Houston last year, and signed by the Pirates, Joe came on offensively with Altoona. In his 25 games with the Curve he hit .341, with 1.100 OPS. Listen, he’s at least interesting and at 24 years old, there’s still some chance at upside. 3B/RF/1B

Jase Bowen – Number 27 prospect, and not yet 24 years old, Jase’s biggest problem is how long it took him to get noticed and promoted. With Greensboro the Pirates High A affiliate, he played 110 games, whacking 23 homers with an OPS of .802. All Greensboro field slander applies of course as it comes to the power numbers, and he didn’t carry it into Altoona for his cup of coffee promotion. In the AFL he did, but the air is notoriously thin. I ultimately doubt he gets selected, but he’s worth mentioning. OF/2B

Malcom Nunez – Can I just say everything I said last year? Yes, and therein lies the problem. Injuries stunted his season, but the part he did put on the books looked eerily similar to his track record, as opposed to an upswing. There’s nothing eye popping, and you usually need something eye popping to get a team to take a swing. Most of his numbers when you add them all up or look at them individually are just some shade of gray. He’s safe I think, but I’m also not sure I care.

2. Rumors & Where They Come From

Everywhere. Rumors come from everywhere.

That’s the truth. Sometimes it’s a friend. Or a friend of someone important who really has an ear. Sometimes it’s a lucky elbow bump at a pub. The ones you hear on social media though, you know, who’s in on whom, and stuff like that. Well, I’ll say this, almost nothing you hear at times like this on the calendar come without agenda.

Sometimes they simply come from two teams with a very open negotiation, but those are rare, and happen more in hockey where the national media and executive ecosystem essentially share beds when it comes to trade creation. Then again, I’ve lived under a very loose lipped Jim Rutherford GM stint.

Another rarity is the health related negotiations. Like Carlos Correa last offseason.

Teams rarely leak their involvement in negotiations beyond confirming a conversation or stating an obvious need they’d like to fill. You’ll never hear them name names on a package. So when it comes from a team source, it’s usually to send a message to fans. Basically, we tried! Even then it’ll be semi vague like we offered a competitive package, but names will never ever be confirmed, at least not until they move on or retire and feel like telling stories.

Agents leak most of the news on which teams are in on free agents, or even prominent trade targets on occasion. Agents want a hot market for their players so you’ll hear statements like “The Yankees, Blue Jays, Twins and Cubs are all in on Player X”. It may be true, but much like never confirming names in a package, most execs would never bother refuting a report like this. Say this is totally true, but the Cubs weren’t involved at all. It’s very unlikely they publicly refute it, and even if they did, it’s played off as “fake news”, so why bother commenting.

It could also be nothing more than a phone call to ask about his starting price. Then someone like Heyman or Passan run to their team sources and ask for confirmations and specifics. Sometimes, teams like the Yankees or Dodgers will feign interest just to see if they can scare off competition by waving their wallets, and they’ll use the media to do it by confirming interest, maybe even suggesting term because that too can scare off the minnows so the sharks can play. Think about it, if you hear the Pirates are in on a guy with the Dodgers and Yankees, you aren’t exactly buying a jersey are ya? Might you just change your focus if you’re Ben Cherington?

This stuff is so structured at this point, and there’s such an ingrained network of sources and feeding/dispensing stations that it rarely comes from anyone new. It’s part of why I laugh at everyone who jumps on the scene screaming and hollering about having sources. LOL. As I started with, everyone does. But none of them are breaking anything like this. Even if your source is Bob Nutting’s Manicurist, you won’t be the first to hear about that extension. That’s above all of our stations in life. It’s really much better to just admit it and not pretend you have something super special, because if the news truly matters, it will go to the big fish to feed first. Even if she runs to the phone, by the time Bob finds out the offer he authorized is happening, it’s already on Twitter or close to it.

Everyone else can get the exclusive on someone’s charity cleat designs by creeping athletes wives on Instagram! LOL, yeah, not my bag either.

I will say, there are several in the blog space who have excellent sources throughout the minor leagues. Our own Craig Toth among them, but that is a completely different type of news, and often a very personal connection that sometimes leads to not being able to use the information for fear of outing someone. The good ones don’t exploit it, the bad ones really do. The players learn quickly who’s who, and so do the coaches and support staffs and radio play by play guys.

Let the big dogs have their breaking news, I’m much happier talking about the move than telling people it happened before anyone else anyway.

3. Ok, Now Do Danny Murtaugh!

News broke last night that Jim Leyland was selected to the Hall of Fame, and as I wrote last Monday from Boston, I very much so wanted to see it and I don’t need to see things in a certain order to be happy about a great thing. Jimmy deserved this, but now that he’s in, how about we take care of a great injustice and get Pirates Skipper of two World Championships Danny Murtaugh in the Hall too. In 1960 the Pirates were honestly dominated by the powerful Yankees. Outscored 55-27 and in 7 games Murtaugh oversaw the most statistically nonsensical World Series Championship in the history of the game, and arguably the greatest homerun in the same series.

He’d leave and return, famously recognizing the talent in Pittsburgh in 1969 after the Bucs fired Larry Shepard and asking to return to the dugout.

Again he’d lead the Pirates to the Title in 1971. He’d also become the first manager to field an all black lineup, a moment in time that is still not as celebrated as it should be.

The number 40 has been retired by the Pirates. He was in he inaugural class of the Pirates Hall of Fame.

From 1948 to 1976 Murtaugh managed for 4 stints, but remained with the club’s front office in some capacity through most of the gaps. A Pirate for most of his adult life.

Also, the man was a quote lover’s treasure.

“Why certainly I’d like to have that fellow who hits a home run every time at bat, who strikes out every opposing batter when he’s pitching, who throws strikes to any base or the plate when he’s playing outfield and who’s always thinking about two innings ahead just what he’ll do to baffle the other team. Any manager would want a guy like that playing for him. The only trouble is to get him to put down his cup of beer and come down out of the stands and do those things.”

“Managing a ballclub is like getting malaria. Once you’re bitten by the bug, it’s difficult to get it out of your bloodstream.”

Here’s hoping the same committee that just did right by Leyland, circles back to Mr. Murtaugh, he’s an all time great Pirate and Baseball Man too.

4. Jack Flaherty

Now, take everything I said in point 2 and put it to practice.

NBC Sports is reporting that Jack Flaherty is receiving interest from the Pittsburgh Pirates. There’s even detail about how Jack wants some term but the Pirates hope he’ll take a shorter deal.

Who do you think that came from?

Right, the agent. The message I take from it is something like this. Look, the Pirates are at the right price, which should tell you it’s reasonable, we just want some years, anyone interested? LOL. I know, I’m guessing, reading context clues, but I’m telling you, when you know where it comes from, and understand there is an agenda it’s too fun to just deconstruct it.

All that said, Flaherty is a good target for this team, even though he desperately struggled last year at the end. At 28 years old, he’s already laid a decent track record in the league. Last year, a 4.99 ERA in 144.1 innings. K numbers are good, walk numbers aren’t.

Career, he’s a 3.75 ERA in 667.2 innings. Great K numbers, great walk numbers. If he’s the first signing, he walks in as the Pirates number 2 until he’s displaced.

Note: I’m not saying this is the best they should or could or even will do, but I am saying, while his numbers last year should give you pause, this is the type of guy you want to see. Lots of experience, nothing going wrong that looks terribly mechanical. You sign a guy like this and feel pretty good you’ve filled a slot. I’d also point out, Flaherty didn’t look bad in 2023 until he was shipped to Baltimore, it was there where he posted a 6.75 in 34.2 innings.

I really like his plausibility to bounce back, so here’s hoping this self serving agent’s briefing results in a Jason Mackey Tweet sometime this week huh?

If this is where they’re fishing, chances are we’ll wind up happy with a signing soon, even if Flaherty isn’t one of them. I am a little disappointed they’d like shorter term, but how they feel about one player doesn’t necessarily speak to how they feel about signing anyone beyond 2024.

5. MLB Needs to Help Answer the RSN Issue

The regional sports network fallout is yet to be experienced, but paralysis from the fear of what it could create is all over the place. Some teams already know how it’s shaking out and we’ve seen some of those teams shed salary.

MLB really needs to help control this situation a bit. Every team having autonomy on this is going to lead to even more despair while half the teams do well and half screw the pooch entirely navigating it.

I don’t think MLB Network is necessarily the best way to go, that’s not for me to decide, but I do think if MLB has to start taking this over for myriad markets, it’s going to further entrench a group of teams to remain or become dependent on the league for their table scraps.

I mean, they’ll all make the same I’d imagine and if the league makes 15-20 teams live on the baseball equivalent of food stamps while 10-15 teams pay for it and listen to them complain, the balance of power between the haves and have nots might just flip on it’s head.

Who knows what they’re telling teams, but MLB itself can’t subsidize all this without taking it in from somewhere. The way they have the system set up, Tax spending is the biggest form of redistribution of revenue. Make that tax so high that everyone is on the same ground and it might be fair for competition, but it also would penalize teams for being in a big market just like small ones used to be.

Eventually, all of this will come to a head, but my guess is it won’t truly be argued before 2027. That’s when the CBA expires, and it figures to be bloody.

Ben Cherington’s Winter Meeting History – Look at all these rumors….

12-2-23 – By Justin Verno – @JV_Pitt on X

When Corey Shrader, Joe Boyd and myself set out on this year’s Winter Meeting trade pieces journey, we had hoped to finish it up with a bang.

At long last, the Bucs would be adding some pieces and not sending some guys packing. We finally got to sink our teeth into giving up some kids to fill holes on a team ready to set sail. How fun, we thought.

Hell, even General Manager Ben Cherington hinted at moves. Going as far as hinting at specific areas he needed to address. As seen here, courtesy of Jason Mackey.

Between that report and some other quotes….

“a different type of target”

“We’ve been mostly focused on starting pitching, both in free agency and trade”

Here’s a cut out from MLBTR.com

In terms of moves to improve the roster in 2024, the GM spoke about potential trades and free agent acquisitions. In terms of trades, Cherington said he isn’t taking anything off the table right now, and he’d be willing to make a significant trade if he saw it as the best way to upgrade the roster. As for free agents, he didn’t rule out the possibility of some signings, but he cautioned that he doesn’t want to “lean on free agency exclusively” as a means of improving the club.

Yes, finally at long last we’d have a big fat juicy steak to cut into come the Winter Meetings.

The rumors, we thought, would be rolling in faster than we could say “Raise the Jolly Roger.”

We waited.

And waited.

And we waited.

Nothing. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Not one chunk of coal in our stockings.

Want to hear something more depressing? Here’s a quick list of every Ben Cherington Winter meeting trade I could wrangle up.

As GM of the Boston Red Sox-

2012 December Winter Meetings

None.

2013 December Winter Meetings

None.

2014 December Winter Meetings

11th, Dec-Acquired RHP Rick Porcello for OF Yoenis Cespedes, RHP Alex Wilson and LHP Greg Speier

(side note, Cespedes had been a July Trade Deadline deal that year for GMBC)

December 12th of ‘14 he would make another deal. Clearly the ground work would have been done at the Winter Meetings, as many deals that eventually get done are.

LHP Wade Miley for Rubby De La Rosa, RHP Allan Webster and INF Raymal Flores.

I would certainly call the Rick Porcello trade a success.

As GM of the Pittsburgh Pirates-

2019 December Winter Meetings

None.

2020 December Winter Meetings

None.

2021 December Winter Meetings

None.

2022 December Winter Meetings

None.

By no means am I trying to send up the alarms. I’m not shouting to abandon ship. As I mentioned above, when GMs finally pull the trigger on a trade in the off-season, much of the ground work was done during the Winter Meetings.

But talk about a killjoy. Am I right? This is like Santa finally sliding down your chimney in late February with the GI Joes already open and half the legos from your X-Wing Starfighter kit missing. Sure, you got to open the damn thing but that excitement? Yeah, that went away when the snow melted and the leaves started to bud.

Is this to say it’s “joever”? (that’s what the kids are saying these days? Right?)

Well, if we can gleam one quick positive here. In 2014 when GMBC thought Boston was ready he did add Rick Porcello and Wade Miley, so we got that going for us. Which is nice.

How fun indeed.

Do Something! Pirates Fans Struggle to Accept Team’s Slow Start to Offseason

12-1-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Today being December 1st, this subject probably makes a ton of sense to some non Pirates fans too.

I mean, imagine if your kids came to you with a list of Chirstmas presents they want and they were also armed with the lists of all their friends too. The kid doesn’t care how you get them obviously. They don’t care if you trade your car you use every day to get to work, every item on those lists is a one off. When another parent gets something on that list, well, it goes away for everyone.

Your kid probably doesn’t understand that his buddy who lives in the mansion down the road and has a different pair of Nike’s for every day of the week has a family that sees a new PS5 as a stocking stuffer.

This is Baseball in the offseason. Every Winter, every Winter Meeting time, every single year.

What you as a Pirates fan hope is that your “dad” or bringing this back to the real world, your GM isn’t passing up on a good deal when they find it. In other words, you gave him the list of what you want/need in October, so if he saw it at Costco and decided to wait just in case a better price cropped up before Christmas, well, you aren’t going to happily accept it’s too expensive now.

There are players being signed, nothing too crazy. Lots have been in the NL Central. The NL Central is seen by just about everyone as a wide open division as we prepare to enter 2024, so winning the offseason race, or at least making sure you’ve addressed all your needs will determine how the season goes in many ways. It’s frustrating to sit by and not participate while all those “friends” are already out there making plans for their new toys, or even making plans to sell off some of their old toys to make room.

ALL of that said, we’re losing our minds over nothing as a symptom of the overall frustration.

Yesterday, news broke that Thomas Hatch was going to play overseas instead of remaining on the Pirates 40-man roster. Regardless of what you think of Hatch, here’s the truth, Hatch wasn’t going to start for a team that is going to win more in 2024. Hatch was also likely aware his 40-man spot was increasingly unsafe as the offseason progressed.

Pirates fans were incensed. Not all. Not most. Just some. And those some, well, they saw this guy throw 3-4 really nice games for the Pirates last year, and for them, the Hatch you know is better than the starter they’ll sign to replace him who only won 7 games last year. They’ll look no farther than that, and when they inevitably see Hatch’s stats from over there where he’ll dominate by the way, the Pirates will have absolutely screwed up again.

Hatch is probably an MLB player. But Hatch isn’t a starter on an MLB team. At least he shouldn’t be. He certainly shouldn’t be on purpose, meaning, if you show up in February with Hatch written in as your 5th starter, you better have an Oakland A’s jersey on your back. You know, Osvaldo Bido’s new teammate.

The Cardinals pitching situation believe it or not was worse than the Pirates heading into this offseason. They had Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz as their locks to be in the rotation, and honestly Matz had an incredible for him year in 2023, one he likely won’t repeat in 2024. So adding Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn is an immediate upgrade at least from the innings standpoint. Both will eat innings. Both have been good in their history. Both are better bets than what they had.

Did they spend too much? Maybe. Are they good pitchers? Not really, but they are upgrades for them, they’d be upgrades for the Pirates too, that doesn’t make them the right answers though. Now, what might make them the right answer is the fact they backed both these moves by bringing in Sonny Gray too. He and Mikolas will ensure the other two and Matz should they choose to keep him, don’t have to be special, they just have to be professional, tested, veteran.

If the Pirates had done the exact same thing, I’d tell you the same thing. They’ve bettered the team. Keller and Gray will lead the staff, everyone else will provide a mile marker for prospects to overtake before displacing them.

Problem is, a guy like Gray to this team is still reaching higher than they’re willing. With this owner, it probably always will be.

I’d be more comfortable if the Pirates were out there grabbing at least some of what they need so they don’t have to do all their shopping on Christmas Eve. That’s how you end up with a GoBot instead of a Transformer people! Here’s why they aren’t though.

The Market got stupid real quick and the remaining free agency pool needs to realize it’s not the low water mark.

You see, the Pirates are shopping, and they’re shopping for at least one item slightly above the Lynn/Gibson level. Problem is, both Lynn and Gibson got pretty much what the Bucs would want to spend here, and to those players, being clearly better than Lynn isn’t even much of a guess. So, how can you approach one of those offering what Lance Lynn got just a week ago? And even if you already did, why would you as a player take it at this point? Wouldn’t you want to see what someone like Jordan Lyles gets?

Say you’re Alex Wood. Lots of projections out there that he gets less than 10 mil per and likely signs a prove it deal in 2024. Industry predicted 7.5 for him not even a week ago. Today, the estimate is 10.3 on the site I use (which is nothing more than a guess, but it shows you where players tend to sit in relation to each other less than predict the exact dollar amount).

If I’m the Pirates, I’m not sure I can swallow 10 million for Wood. 7.5, yeah, he’s easily capable of giving you what Rich Hill did, for around the same price and he has better than that in there too potentially. This shouldn’t be their top target, but it is a target and I think helps explain why the market in general has slowly started.

The likelihood is the Cardinals offered less, and padded the offers to eliminate negotiations. In other words, they saw two Cabbage Patch Dolls that weren’t exactly the dolls they had on their list, they cost a bit more than they wanted too, and when a customer near them looked like they might try to outbid them, the Cardinals decided that one eyed doll might be worth an extra mil, just to not have to fight about a few bucks with 2 or 3 other teams involved.

Now, I don’t write all that to have you believe the Pirates are doing the right thing and you should just sit there on your hands happily waiting for them to finally do something. It’s frustrating, and I totally get that. I will say, I told you a couple weeks ago to look more toward trades than free agent signings, and I’ve come to believe that based on the market, the Pirates needs and bluntly, that’s where the internal chatter lives. I can say trade targets outnumber free agent targets as it comes to chatter 4 to 1.

This stuff takes time too. As with Free agency, you can overspend and shut down the market on a deal too.

Look at what the Braves did for Aaron Bummer with the South Side of Chicago. Bummer of the 6.79 ERA in 58 innings with a 1.526 WHIP. Bummer who has a 5.5 million dollar contract for 2024 and two club options for 7.25 and 7.5 respectively in the next two seasons. The Braves sent 5 players to Chicago. FIVE!

And these weren’t just crap folks. They sent pitchers Mike Soroka, Jared Shuster and Riley Gowens, along with infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake. Soroka and Shuster probably walk right in and start in the rotation for both the Sox and theoretically the Pirates. Lopez is a ready made utility upgrade. Shewmake and Gowens are interesting and that’s about it.

This is insane.

Like, if the Pirates were to have gotten in on this and traded even a good reliever like Mlodzinski for this package, I’d be telling you Cherington took advantage of a stacked team desperately trying to clear 40-man space and he ate their soul. Don’t get me wrong, the Sox easily had the 40-man space and the Pirates would have had to work to create it, but man if this went under Ben’s nose and he didn’t react, bluntly, he deserves to be fired. This is a swing a team in Pittsburgh’s situation has to take a shot at and I simply can’t believe Bummer was that much of a target.

A trade like that, well, damn, it kills the market, at least until people realize how special Atlanta’s situation was.

All trades will at least be compared to this one. For a while, not forever. Think about it, say Ben is shopping Bednar (calm down, I’m just talking), what does he do if someone offers like one starter and one pen arm you could work with? Can he take it after Bummer got what he got? Probably not right? Not without going out of his way to explain.

Next, toss in the TV money and the unpredictable financial situation it’s caused around the league. It’s slowing things down for sure, and while I’d argue it’s not the situation in Pittsburgh it is elsewhere because their deal was never great, it’s still a factor. This team might only wind up losing 10-15 million, but, you’ve been here a while, if they signed a guy for 10-15 million that’s a pretty big swing for them historically right?

Add in opportunities to be tentative and a careful team is going to get a tight butt. The Pirates with their historic lack of room for error, self inflicted as it may be, is likely only going to get more careful.

Bottom line, I don’t think you’re hearing things because quite frankly, there have been multiple reasons to slow down. Second, they’re typically more patient to begin with and finally, they shouldn’t be shopping for the tiny tub of wall patch at Lowes, they need to be looking for a big, expensive full sheet of fresh dry wall, probably a few of them.

Be as patient as you like, or don’t, that’s your choice, I’m just saying, the market itself isn’t moving much, and personally, I’ll wait until I see less than 30 options out there that could help. If Gibson or Lynn were your make or brake, chances are you didn’t have your sights set high enough anyway, and if you ever thought they would be in on Gray, put the bottle down, you’ve had enough.

The intention for this season changed, not the circumstances that made this rebuild a long shot to pull off in the first place. Even that isn’t true, cause it’s actually gotten harder.

Know Your Enemy – St Louis Cardinals 2023 & Beyond

11-30-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

My biggest miss in looking at the NL Central in 2023 was the St. Louis Cardinals. On paper, the team appeared to have the needed build to keep pace with the rest of the division. Boy was I wrong!

The Red Birds finished 71-91. Things went wrong right out of the gate & never really improved much from there. Despite having a potent enough offense, the defense & pitching was simply not up to the task in 2023.

In the preseason outlook for the Cardinals here at KYE we did note that the pitching would be a weakness without the team addressing it in-season. In wrapping up the 2023 season for St. Louis this major question remains. What will the pitching look like? Who will they bring in? Will they throw some cash around? We will find out (spoiler alert they did).

Pitching

Adam Wainwright – The ride finally came to an end for a St. Louis fixture. Father Time finally caught up to Waino seeing him post a -0.4 fWAR final career season. He did however reach the 200 win milestone, and it is very possible that we see no other starting pitcher reach that number again with the way pitching is trending. It was an ignoble end to a great career, but he was a great pitcher for a very long time. Congratulations on your terrific resume, Waino.

Miles Mikolas – Mikolas turned in a 3.1 fWAR 2023. His performance was very quietly impressive. Mikolas was one of only 5 starting pitchers to hurl 200+ IP and he finished with a top 26 fWAR among qualified SPs. Yes he is boring. Yes he is underrated.

Steven Matz – Matz had a good bounceback season, but suffered a lat injury that held him to only 105 IP. He was still able to chip in 2.0 fWAR & appeared to have reclaimed the form that made him a desirable free agent after the 2021 season. It remains to be seen that he can top 150 IP. Should he return from injury (and mostly avoid it) he will be a valuable piece in 2024. (Editor’s Note: It has now been reported the Cardinals are planning to move Matz if they can find a deal)

Matthew Liberatore – No way to sugarcoat this one, Liberatore stunk again in 2023. He will be just 24 years old next season & he does possess great pedigree, so the Cards won’t be giving up on him just yet. It is worth noting that he did see a modest velocity jump in 2023. It remains to be seen if he can be a long term Major League starter, but he is too young to count him out just yet.

Zack Thompson – Another young lefty with first round draft pedigree, Thompson showed some ability in 2023. While it wasn’t incredibly inspiring, I think that Thompson could have more sauce than his left handed counterpart Liberatore. Just a 66 IP sample size for Thompson, so 2024 should be the year to get a real sense for his ability & his pitch mix is pretty interesting. Or maybe we won’t get to see what his ability is…because the Cards have been busy

Lance Lynn – Old friend Lance Lynn has been re-signed by the Cardinals. Lynn had a down 2023 as it looks like he lost a bit of juice in the overall repertoire. He was able to still pile up Ks and IP, but the output was definitely lacking. His stuff simply did not play as well which led to more quality contact allowed, more HR surrendered, & a pretty poor final ratio/fWAR line. Lynn should still be able to post 175+ K’s and chew innings, but without sharper execution or correcting the 2023 issues, he might have another high-strikeout + middling ratio season on tap. His move away from two hitters parks in Chicago & LA will help, but will it be enough to cure his HR issue?

Kyle Gibson – Is Kyle Gibson an ace? Well, no, duh. But is Kyle Gibson an above-average, mostly reliable innings hog? Well, yes, duh. Watching immediate fan reaction to Gibson’s signing has been interesting. Many seem to think he stinks. He is clearly not a “star”, but he is also clearly not bad. His pitch mix is pretty interesting in that he possesses a sinker that generates a lot of contact, but with a negative launch angle, that really isn’t bad, and the third best sweeper in all of baseball for 2023. The sweeper was a revelation for Gibson & I might even argue that it earned him this deal. It earned a 46.7 whiff rate and had a paltry .181 wOBA against. Is it good to have an elite offering? Or is that bad actually?

Sonny Gray – Perhaps the biggest move in the NLC as of writing this, St. Louis brought in the AL Cy Young runner up to anchor their staff. Gray inked a 4 year/45 million dollar deal and Cardinals fans should be pretty happy about this one! He will be 38 at the time he retires, but getting a pitcher of this caliber for a $12.5 AAV hit is a nice get. We mentioned the sweeper in Gibson’s blurb, well, this man threw the best sweeper in baseball in 2023 (pure coincidence the Cards signed them both? hmmm). I do not think fans should expect another 5+ fWAR, Cy Young candidacy here, but I would be shocked to not see him post a 2.5+ fWAR year.

We need to acknowledge here that the Cardinals just added what Streamer projects to be 534 innings of 7.5 fWAR starting pitching. As it stands right now, Fangraphs has them projected with the 6th highest team fWAR for 2024. Just something to think about. It has been a good offseason so far and it is just beginning.

Bullpen Bullet Points:

Ryan Helsley – Beast of an RP. Mostly replicated his 2022, but a regression in command & injuries dinged his overall output. Should be a bullpen stud again in 2024.

Giovanny Gallegos – Took a real step back in 2023. Has a decent track record for being better than that. Bullpen guys are mercurial, I’d expect to see him better in 2024.

JoJo Romero – JoJo found something in 2023. He was straight up good. If it can mostly stick, this trio will be trouble for opposing teams.

Hitters

Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy had a somewhat disappointing year in 2023. The lowest OPS, batting average, 3rd lowest HR total, 2nd lowest wRC+, & wOBA of his career to date. Folks, age catches up to every player. But maybe not yet? It is easy to look at the back of the baseball card stats here & his age ticking up to 36 and think, it’s so over. But his underlying numbers say not so fast. The batted ball data is still great, the xStats great, quality of contact and hard hit rate, still great. While the overall output might begin to diminish, Goldy is still a dang good hitter and could defy the decline curve for a few more years.

Nolan Arenado – Unlike his running mate above, I think I am buying the 2023 version of Arenado a little more. Through most of his career, Arenado has had a skill (and I do believe it is a skill) for outperforming his underlying stats. I hesitate to predict this skill slowing at just age 33, especially when he has done it for every single year of his career, but I think we see it start. The defense took a step back in 2023 as well, but it was still good. Even a diminished form of Arenado should be able to post 2-3 fWAR seasons for a while longer.

Lars Nootbar – Nootbar was a hot pick for a big breakout in 2023. He did underwhelm a bit, but posted a quite good 3.2 fWAR due to his all around play. I do think that he might be a post-hype breakout candidate since he piled up injuries in 2023. He has a great approach and makes quality consistent contact. He is a good ballplayer.

Jordan Walker – Walker had enormous hype as an uber prospect. Many might see his season as a disappointment, but for a 21 year old it was really encouraging. I expect Walker to establish himself as one of the game’s bright young stars within the next several seasons.

Tommy Edman – Edman was not able to replicate his star turn from 2022, but he is still a high quality player. He is a versatile speedster with a lot of rock solid tools. Not a star but capable of well above play in almost all facets of the game.

Brendan Donovan – Speaking of versatile & well rounded, Donovan was having a nice little breakout in 2023 before succumbing to injury. His power output was taking a nice step forward making him a more complete player. If his swing changes are here to stay I don’t see why he won’t have a nice 3-5 more solid years of being a mainstay in St. Louis.

Willson Contreras – A dreadful start made his sizable new contract look gross early on, but he finished with a very typical performance in 2023. His defense at catcher is not great. His bat is still darn near elite for the position. All of the batted ball data and underlying numbers back up him looking very much like a good player still.

Tyler O’Neill – Talk about a bad year. O’Neill was injured on and off as usual and found himself in the managerial doghouse. He has not been able to be on the field enough to come close to repeating his monster 2021 campaign, but he did make some notable gains in his approach. 2023 say O’Neill cut his K%, whiff %, and chase rate. I am a sucker for the tool set he possesses. He is big, strong, and fast. If he could get near 500 ABs, the production will follow.

Farmhands

I do not want to focus too much on the farm in this version of Know Your Enemy, but I feel that just a few blurbs are needed.

Thomas Saggese – Thomas Saggese was added at the deadline from Texas. Simply put, he was one of the best minor league hitters in baseball in 2023. In AA, Saggesse put up a 92 run, 25 homers, 107 RBI, 11 steals, .322/.391/.587 triple slash, .978 OPS, 150 wRC+, and a .424 wOBA line. He split his time between 2B and 3B. There is no clear positional opening for him yet, but he will likely debut in 2024.

Masyn Winn – Wynn debuted in 2023 and struggled in a 37 game sample. He did level up his offensive game in AAA though and that sufficiently changes his player profile some going forward. He has a massive throwing arm, but a just so-so defensive profile. The bat now appears to have at least above-average potential along with above-average to plus speed. The opening is not yet clear, but he looks like an exciting piece.

This is a good place to wrap a brief tour of the Cardinals team. My preseason KYE piece for the Cards was definitely a miss. The team’s pitching issues were clear then, but the extent of the issues were really not clear to me then. As we have all seen, they are taking the steps to try and reverse that with veteran additions. The young pitching that is “ready” simply does not look good enough, so what they have done is admirable to say the least.

I again expect this team to be a real player to take the NL Central crown in 2024.

Not So Patiently Waiting On The Pirates To Make A Move

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-qkxei-150f55a

Craig and Chris sit down to discuss the additions that have been made around MLB at this point in the off-season, Pirates Fans reactions to these, and the complicated nature of making trades. In the end they decide, it’s probably a good idea for everyone to just take a deep breath.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Let’s Grab Some Pitching!

8-1-23 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Justin Verno- Welcome back Corey! We are a week or so away from the Winter Meetings. We’ve looked at selling some pieces and last week Joe and I took a stab at adding some bats to the lineup. You down to add to the starting rotation?

Corey Shrader- It is refreshing to be able to make some pitches to add pieces. It feels like we haven’t been able to do these in some time. This team needs to supplement some pitching to its younger stable of arms to take proper steps forward.

JV- With so many free agent starters that looked like a good fit for the Bucs now off the board, one has to wonder if the Pirates could look at adding two starters via trade. I certainly think that could be on the table.

CS- I anticipate adding a starter via trade and at least one via free agency could be a realistic outcome for this offseason. If one thing is evident in the modern version of Major League Baseball, it is that everyone wants and needs more viable pitching options.

JV- Let’s get to it. I’m leading off here with a name that I have a feeling will be connected to Ben Cherington. Fans have already made the jump. With the 11th pick in the 2011 Draft, the Blue Jays took Alek Manoah. GMBC was vice president of baseball ops for Toronto at the time. It’s been said that the Blue Jays have Alek Manoah on the market making this an easy jump to make.

While I had hoped that the Bucs would move past the “reclamation projects” as they are on the cusp of a wild card chase, I feel this is one that just makes too much sense for us to not look at. So much so that perhaps we both give a quick package and move on?

Manoah still has four years of control left, but at this point he’s more of a reclamation project. It’s hard to envision his SV any higher than $15-25M. Does that sound like a fair surplus value?

CS- Toronto Gets:

Liover Peguero – 2B/SS Debuted

This cost sort of stings given the flashes Peggy showed in 2023 and the relatively god awful year Manoah had. I do think for the Jays to be motivated to move the big guy it would take something like this (maybe more?) to get it done. For the chance to land an arm that has so much promise, I would be tempted to pay it.

JV- Toronto gets:

Ji Whan Bae-2B/CF/SS-Debuted (SV $25-35)

Another piece where I’m giving up Bae. Another piece where I’m giving up a 2B to the Jays. Bae is projected at a WAR of .8 in 75 games if the Jays can get 1.6 WAR season out of Bae I’d think they’d be happy. And perhaps they have more luck getting his bat going than the Pirates did.

But all in all the Jays have a need at 2B, and the Bucs have a surplus at 2B. The Bucs need starters, the Jays have Manoah (possibly) on the trade block. Peanut butter, meet chocolate.

Corey, a side note on Manoah-

I’m not sure I get the Jays making Alek available in a trade, why sell so low on a dude who had a fantastic year in 2022? Manoah experienced a hefty drop in just about every metric and a year ago he would have been untouchable. Looking over his 2023 campaign I see no world where they get anywhere close to top value for him.

Is GMBC comfortable enough giving up a larger package that I’m sure Toronto will want to part with Alek? I think that the most I’d be ok with adding is a Thomas Harington type?

CS- The Manoah question is a difficult one to grapple with. The version of him when he is “right” is undeniably very good. Why would they trade him now? Had to say. Perhaps it is a mutual need to move on? Maybe they do not think he can be “fixed”? Really an interesting situation to monitor.

JV- Alright, enough of Alek Manoah. Let’s get to the heart of it. I’m starting off my packages with the more reasonable deal.

My team? Seattle Mariners. This is an add piece but Imma cheat just a little bit here.

The deal

Mariners get:

Ji Hwan Bae-2B/SS/CF-Debuted SV $25-35M

Bae again? Yes, Bae again. Bae showed the reasons he was so highly regarded this year albeit it was a mixed bag. Still though, the upside jumped off the pages here and there. I ultimately think this is the guy the Bucs end up moving in some deal or other. Mariners have a need at 2B and getting Bae doesn’t break the bank.

Pirates get-

Emerson Hancock-SP-Debuted-FV 45($4M)

Hancock debuted but still has prospect status. The kid finally got healthy and started to show some of the talent that made him a top pick.The FB is solid enough but the reason I’d still love to add Emerson Hancock(this is about the 4th time I suggested him in a deal) is his secondary stuff fits the profile of what the Bucs like. His two best offerings are his slider and change up. The Bucs have really done good work with some of their prospects change ups this year.

Hancock still having prospect status means the SV is a landslide here. The Bucs could seek more unless the Mariners convince them to view Emerson and his MLB projections. GMBC should push for more. I’ll hold it with Emerson here though as an MLB ready pitcher is worth more than their FV/SV numbers, particularly since he seems to be an “arrow up” guy at the moment. That said, if GMBC could squeeze CF Jonatan Clase out of them I’d be ecstatic.

CS- Hancock is the type of younger pitcher I could envision the Bucs pursuing. I think the “ready” but not yet debuted/established pitcher deal makes sense from an organizational trajectory standpoint – but it does not quite fit the current “need” quite as much.

Since you got a little “cheating” in here, I just want to mention that I had a similar deal in mind but with Minnesota. So allow me to do some cheating & I will throw an aside here about it and leave it about as clear as mud.

The Deal:

Pirates get:

David Festa, P – FV 50 ($21M)

Matt Canterino, P – FV 40+ ($3M)

Now where this gets tricky is finding a clear matching swap between teams for the bigger piece, David Festa. It is easy to look at the Twins and see a team that is aware of its own struggles with the health of key players and prioritize adding pieces with versatility at the expense of moving from a position of depth. However, pitching is an area that is almost always in need of reinforcement in-season.

Festa made it to AAA in late 2023. He put up respectable numbers in a small sample there, but his BB rate did balloon. While I would mostly ignore this, it does not appear that he will ever be a control arm. Frankly, that doesn’t matter much to me overall. His stuff is wicked & he possesses a workhorse size & what is hailed to be surprising athleticism for a man of his size (6’6”, only sub-200lbs however).

The other possible option is more of a personal favorite of Matt Canterino.

Canterino missed all of 2023 with an injury. There is extreme risk here. But he has really nuclear grade stuff. While he does not exactly meet the requirements of what we are looking for in this piece, I want to mention him because he is currently on the Twins 40 man roster. Given his injury status & history, he might be someone that the Twins are swayed to move. If they feel moving him could open up a 40 man spot for a player like Festa or another Rule 5 eligible piece they are compelled to protect, it makes sense to move Canterino before the R5 deadline & draft.

Twins get:

Jared Triolo, UT

I am not quite certain that this gets it done for Festa, but it seems close. Triolo came on stronger with the bat than many expected in 2023. While his underlying numbers are not quite that strong, his skillset might be something like a poor man’s Isaac Paredes with double plus defense.

In full transparency, this particular move feels quite unrealistic. I have a gut feeling that Triolo is going to be a key cog on this team given his defensive ability and versatility.

In a smaller move for Canterino I could see someone like Tony Blanco, an intriguing prospect that is far away and a non-Rule 5 factor. Or perhaps even a Nick Gonzales. Former early first round selection with prospect pedigree and versatility that they could try to “fix.”

Like I said, this one is not super clean to get done in my own mind, so I am sure actually getting it done in real life is even more difficult!

JV- Now on to the main course. The big move, the shake down. And Corey, you mentioned to me the other day that this task will not be easy. There just aren’t a lot of arms out there.

I used the Seattle Mariners for my reasonable package, and ya know what, Corey? I’m looking at them again in a more aggressive move.

Pirates get-

Bryce Miller-SP-Debuted-SV- hard to gauge

Miller is a big time FB guy. Where scores out at a 70 on the scale. The nice part here is he has five pitches in his tool bag. His slider and cutter grade out at a 50 FV while his change up and curveball come in at a 45, respectively. He’s controlled thru 29 making that SV hard to calculate. It won’t be cheap to land Miller but the Pirates have something that just might work

Mariners get-

Liover Pegureo- 2B/SS-Debuted-SV- hard to gauge

The Mariners have a need at 2B and the Bucs have that surplus, see above. If the Bucs were to go after Miller the prize headed back just cannot be Bae, gotta be bigger. Liover may not be the name that Miller was but his first look in the MLB showed promise. The power looked solid as did his glove work at second. Miller certainly had a better debut but it should be noted that Peggy was only 22 to Millers 25. I think this would be a solid first piece for the Mariners.

The Mariners would need a nice second piece here. A 40 FV or 40+ FV type I think could be close. If the Mariners insisted on a Thomas Harringotn I would not be upset to see GMBC give the go ahead.

CS – I too am bringing a main dish to the table. And mine is much more akin to the type of food that some very small percentage of people will be excited about, maybe like a piping hot dish of haggis. Sure, the haggis enthusiasts at dinner are going to love it. The rest of the dinner guests are sure to be disappointed. So, here it is:

The Rays get:

Endy Rodriguez, C/1B

Pirates get:

Tyler Glasnow, P

Xavier Isaac, 1B FV 40+

So once you take a deep breath from either screaming in anger or laughing at the idea of this, hear me out.

Everyone knows the downside to Tyler Glasnow. Injuries pile up for the guy. On top of that, he makes $25 million in 2024 and will become a UFA in 2025. But, there is an upside here too. When he has pitched, he is a near ace. Envisioning a rotation with Keller & Glasnow at 1 and 2 is mighty tempting. I think you need to assume that Glasnow is probably a longshot to exceed 150 IP given that he just posted his career high Major League IP of 120.

Mentioning those issues with Glasnow, the second piece here would be crucial. Xavier Isaac is definitely one of “my guys” when it comes to favorite prospects. His current FV on Fangraphs undersells how good of a prospect he is by magnitudes. At just 19 he posted 71 runs, 19 homers, 72 RBI, 12 steals, a 14.5/21.2 BB/K%, and elite wOBA and near elite wRC+ figure between A/A+ ball in 2023.

To move a prospect the caliber of Endy Rodriguez, Isaac would need to be the type of additional player added on to this deal.

The idea of Pittsburgh trading their 1A catcher is tough to sell though. Similarly, Tampa Bay moving both their current ace & the 1B prospect that they traded Kyle Manzardo to clear a path for is similarly tough to sell. Like I said earlier, this one would be liked by a small number & most likely hated by a large number. But it is something that I would personally be open to. It would address an immediate hole, top end starting pitching, and a long term hole, the first base position, with a truly “elite” 1B prospect.

-Parting thoughts-

JV- The pitching market is tough this season. Not a lot of big names look to be available on the market. With the new play-off rules it seems a little harder to sort out the “buyers” from the “sellers”.

The only thing I can say for sure here, Corey? With how the Bucs seem to be approaching the FA market I have to think they will get at least one starter via a trade. Here’s to hoping they don’t grab them off the 70% off racks at Kohl’s.
CS- As the days go by this winter more and more “realistic” FA targets for Pittsburgh are going off the shelf. I hope you’re right and we see Pittsburgh jump into the 2023 NL Central race sooner rather than later. Otherwise, it will be another offseason of playing the fringes and bargain shopping only.