11-13-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

This deadline in MLB’s offseason probably won’t be all that eventful for the Pirates. They took care of most of their pressing Rule 5 protections in 2023 during the season, so what they have left on the table barely moves the needle. I’ve touched on who they might protect, who they might move if they need more room in previous editions of this feature, and today, we’ll talk about it from a different angle along with a bunch more.

Thanks for joining me every week. The offseason can be a lonely place for someone trying to cover a nearly dormant sport, but you all always bring the engagement anyway and it always means a lot to me.

1. Minimum 10 More Wins

For the Pirates to truly entertain being part of the playoff field in 2024, they’ll likely need to improve by another 10 games. Bluntly, that 86 win mark isn’t a guarantee either, but over the course of 2 seasons, to see your team improve in the win column by 24 is probably a bit bigger of a jump than you expect. It’s certainly more than you’d sell as likely.

That said, that’s exactly what’s on the table.

We all know the needs, but some are more important than others. For instance, the Pirates SHOULD sign a first baseman, but should they choose not to, it won’t lock them out from this improvement. They could add in the outfield, second base, the bullpen too, but folks the only thing this team can’t swing and miss on is the starting rotation.

Everything else is gravy.

I’m not even saying this by way of setting you up to be less mad when they let you down. I actually think they’ll do more than many of us believe. I’m saying it because as I sit here I honestly think they could get those 10 wins doing nothing more than investing in the rotation.

If this team adds 15-20 million in the rotation and does nothing else, I think they’ll improve through players taking a step and of course Cruz coming back.

I say all this because what is completely doable, a 1B, & 2 SP, is likely more than enough if this core is worth building on in the first place, and I think it is.

Not for a World Series mind you, just the goal of making the playoffs. I truly think it’s right there. I also think a story from dating my wife probably applies.

We went out to dinner 15 years ago somewhere, and I tipped the waitress 5 bucks on like a 35 dollar bill. My wife is a restaurant operator, so she was offended and told me “if you don’t have money to tip, we don’t have money to go out”.

To me, this is where my mind goes on the 2 starting pitcher subject. 1 won’t get the job done, so if the plan is to “not tip” enough, I’d suggest they’d be better off just doing it all internally next year. I don’t see 1 getting the job done, and if that’s what they chose to do, I’d prefer just playing kids. Not gonna try to win, try to develop. Don’t have/won’t spend the money for a “nice tip” AKA 2 starters, don’t bother going to the restaurant.

They can improve enough to be a competitive fun team next year with less than 2 starting pitching free agents or trade acquisitions, but I don’t believe they can reach the playoffs without it.

2. New Director of Amateur Scouting Justin Horowitz

The Pirates don’t tend to make a media sensation out of additions or subtractions that don’t face the fans. So this story it’s safe to say will slowly come to light I’m quite sure.

The Bucs hired a New Director of Amateur Scouting and his name is Justin Horowitz.

I’m unclear what this means for Senior Director of Amateur Scouting Joe DelliCarri or any of the existing members of this team, but it’s being painted as this being a new “boss” so at the very least they’re making a change.

Justin started as an intern with the Red Sox back in 2012 and has remained with the team in various roles for the past 9 years. He’s done just about everything with the Sox, from Scout to Cross-checker, to International focus and back to domestic, Horowitz has a resume for low round finds, development wins and maximizing slot investment. You’ll see him given credit for players like Jarren Duran, Marcelo Mayer and Mikey Romero, but largely the Red Sox development system has been a relative let down, so you can really paint whatever picture you like as scouting and development create their own chicken and egg story. I will say according to the Boston Globe he was a critical member of the process team on Mayer and Romero the Sox last two first round selections.

No matter how the structure here in Pittsburgh changes, there’s little doubt this will alter how the Pirates approach the MLB draft, so this could signify some dissatisfaction in that area since Ben Cherington came on board or it could simply be a fortification, either way, Horowitz is widely regarded as a talent. That said, so was his former boss Chaim Bloom who was relieved of his duties after the season and probably caused a shakeup that loosened Justin from the org in the first place.

I don’t expect anyone to throw a party in the streets here, but I mention it because often this stuff goes undiscussed and it feels like they simply sit here satisfied and never make changes.

For now, I’d say take note, and when the draft comes around, see if maybe they don’t look like they’re taking a slightly different approach. Instead of saving slot money early, maybe we’ll see them spend it early. Maybe Cherington feels they’ve got pitching happy and need to balance things out a bit more.

Like I said, more will come to light, but we won’t know if this helped potentially forever. Think about it, do you know who was in charge of amateur scouting when they drafted Cutch? Maybe you did at some point, but…

3. Deadlines Create Action

Tomorrow is the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster and thereby protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Now, you’ve already heard me talk about who the Pirates might protect, you’ve already heard me say who they might be able to move on from to make room. If you missed these, just check out the previous couple 5 Thoughts on the site.

Deadlines like this will create movement around the league though and that’s what I want to talk to here.

The Pirates took advantage of this deadline themselves early in their rebuild. Rule 5 decisions prompted the Yankees to move on from guys like Hoy Park, Diego Castillo and even Roansy Contreras. Option problems, roster decisions and yes, deadlines that force them tend to pry the odd serviceable player off the roster or to pull the trigger on a trade they may have not felt 100% sure was a fair deal talent wise. Remember, it’s not about how great these players turned out, it’s about what the Pirates needed (help at the MLB level, even if just for a year) and a cheap way to get it.

This year, don’t look for the Pirates to be on the receiving end of many of these deals. They have some players to move that fall into this category, but if they were to move them they’d have to be looking for MLB return.

Now, a way something like this could work is, let’s say the A’s are willing to move Paul Blackburn. He’s a fairly popular name on the trade scene, starting pitcher, years of control. The A’s probably would prefer to get back high level prospects for someone like this, but a team like Pittsburgh, well they might offer one of those and “fill” the deal with some guys a competitive team has no desire to acquire, but the A’s likely have a spot to fill and wouldn’t care about the lack of options.

So because of the pressure of the deadline, you could see a theoretical deal where the Pirates get Blackburn (and I’m not suggesting this, just illustrating why the deadline matters) the A’s get someone like Bubba Chandler, a top prospect with a bright future, they probably toss in a lottery ticket, DSL, High A guy who is likely eligible for Rule 5 protection in 2025, and a guy or guys like Bailey Falter.

Bailey has no options remaining and likely not going to make the 26-man. That said, the A’s could easily afford to give him a good look in their rotation. They can sell it as help for now, help for later, and a great shot at help for later. The Pirates obviously get a sorta tested starter with some team control and upside left over.

Another type of deal you can make, I personally don’t feel teams do often enough. You could trade some guys like Canaan Smith-Njigba, Alika Williams, you know, guys who kinda aren’t all that pivotal to the cause, but look like they could be bench players, and in return you could acquire some lower level guys with the same pedigree. A guy like Matt Gorski, he has all his options, but he doesn’t have an obvious path, hasn’t made it an issue and next season will be able to select free agency. Moving a guy like that kinda resets the clock if you will on part of your system and keeps the overall talent level where you want it. So you could swing a trade like this for one guy you really liked from the 2022 draft that went to another team. You “help” that team now, help yourself later because in theory, you don’t need that level of help right now. You still have to develop them, but you won’t be worrying about giving them a spot or protecting them for a few seasons.

The alternative is playing out the string and having guys like Mason Martin eventually go unclaimed in the Rule 5 repeatedly until they eventually claim minor league free agency.

Had the Pirates 2 years ago tried to move Mason in a move like I just described you might very well have a nice AA pitcher starting to sprout instead of just seeing a once promising prospect walk away potentially. Mason may never be anything, but 2 years ago, that was MUCH less known. As a development staff, you need to know who isn’t going to make it just as much as who could.

This deadline tends to create some wheeling and dealing around the league, I just wanted to take a minute to talk about why, and what type of movement to expect. This isn’t where you’ll see Soto moved folks, this is more where you’ll see a guy like Gorski moved.

You’ll see much more of this going forward. As the Pirates 26-man becomes less open for business via promotion, it stands to reason more guys will “stall” but in reality when you reach the peak of this build say in 2025 or 2026 the system beneath is probably bulging a bit provided you haven’t had to move a bunch for more MLB proven help.

4. First Base the Never Ending Offseason Story

I have to tell you, I don’t think Carlos Santana is a slam dunk to come back to Pittsburgh. Yes, I heard him say he wanted to. Yes, I’ve heard internal people say they wanted him to. But then I look at what he actually did last year, even at a clearly too old to do this age. 23 HR, 86 RBI, Gold Glove defense, and I compare it to the rest of the 1B free agent board, I have to be honest, what we’ve seen as “settling for Carlos” might be more accurately “Why the hell do we think Carlos will come back?” let alone cheaper as I’ve heard a ton of fans suggest.

Joey Votto is old and looked it last year. Wil Myers was cut twice at great expense. Joey Gallo is really more of a DH/OF. Brandon Belt might retire and if he doesn’t is likely to play fewer than 100 games. Gio Urshela is probably not better than Conner Joe. CJ Cron can’t hit outside Colorado.

Rhys Hoskins will probably get the most money, but if I’m being real with you, I really don’t like his glove. He can hit, for power anyway, but that’s it, he’s a one trick pony and bluntly, I can’t sit here and say I’d expect the 23 Carlos hit this year. Probably shouldn’t expect it from Carlos either, but he didn’t tear his knee to shreds last year.

Hey, I know you guys, I can be bold right?

Carlos Santana in my mind might be the best free agent option on the 1B market, specifically for THIS market. His age is his biggest question mark, and yes it would be great to solve this position for years to come. Rhys is the only one I see who could fit that bill, and I’m not sure I think it fits well.

If you want to count Bellinger, have at it. I’ll happily talk about guys the Pirates won’t sign because Bob is too cheap, this one goes on baseball though.

Point is, if they get this done and actually net Santana again, the narrative is probably going to be they settled, but it’s very hard to look at what’s feasibly available and put him lower on your list than 3rd. You’ve been here a while, that’s not typically where the Pirates feed.

Even when they’ve told us they’re trying to win. Again, different management team, but I remember NEEDING a 1B for the entirety of the last playoff run and the one before that too.

5. NL Central Roundtable

Doing this site and podcasting, you make acquaintance, or even friendships with people who cover other markets. It just happens, as you network, you overlap and you remember a guy you want to talk to once talked to the fella you just met from Chicago, and you reach out. Contact sharing, talking, bouncing ideas off of each other.

I’m going out of my way to explain why I have so many “friends” talking to me about the other teams ok? LOL I tried writing this without that paragraph and it was the only question I couldn’t answer I thought you might ask.

OK, so…

A bunch of my “friends” have been talking about the NL Central and who might do what. We’re all toying with pulling together a big NL Central roundtable discussion type thing and not a soul knows what the Brewers are going to do.

My friends, and I’ll stop the insufferable quoting of friends here, from Chicago immediately started out claiming that stealing Counsell is the final blow before entering a rebuild to the Brewers.

My buddies from Milwaukee, not so much. They were almost 100% ready to accept a purge and turn to youth BUT THEN Counsell left for Chicago and according to them, it done pissed some people off. Potentially to the point they might just hold off on that and let some things play out a bit. Namely Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames.

The decision on what to do this offseason for the Brewers was always going to be tough, one way or another Woodruff and Burnes were not likely to both be Brewers after 2024, but Woodruff being lost for the season seemed to be just about the type of punch in the mouth it might take to pull the rip cord. Adames has two years left.

All that said, they’re stuck with Yelich. Nobody will eat his contract, and he probably won’t produce enough to warrant it. Much like in Cincy years ago, you have “Votto” you kinda have to go. The Brewers farm is pretty solid, so if they were to move Burnes, Adames, Contreras, Williams, you know, the guys coming up on decisions, they could bounce back within maybe 2 years, and they’ve proven they’ll spend so that’s realistic so long as some pitching takes hold. Stretch this out and try another year with Burnes, man, that 2 years could wind up looking more like 3 or 4.

If I’m a Brewers fan, I don’t know what I’d feel. From my seat, they’ve tried like hell, maybe I’d just shut up and trust them.

It’s just funny, we get so wrapped up in our own situation we forget what’s going on elsewhere.

For what it’s worth, none of us are ready to guess about who finishes where for obvious reasons. All of us feel this is anyone’s division with the Cubs being the front runner, but they have to win the offseason to stay there and even that could leave them short.

Nobody expects the Cardinals to stay bad, but there is some surprise they didn’t move on from their manager. Nobody seems to think the Cardinals, who do spend, have enough to fill all the holes they have, including the Cardinals guys. That organization doesn’t do rebuilds, but this is as close as they’ll come. The other thing they wanted to talk about was Yadi, they all seem to think if this season doesn’t go well he’ll wind up in the dugout managing or coaching.

The Reds guys are confident they’ll be very good, some are fretting the club trading India. I’d have to say though, everyone else feels like this team might just have too many sophomores to expect success. One thing that really took me off guard, the Reds guys don’t seem to think they’ll add much outside of the bullpen and maybe a veteran starter. I interjected here that this hasn’t been the Reds MO.

The Buccos, well, for the most part, everyone thought they were hard to play last year, which makes sense, the Pirates did fine in the division outside of Chicago. Much like you and I, they all see next to nothing in the Rotation so of course, need a big offseason, which none of them see coming, and why would they? The Pirates Bullpen, and yes I asked, is not seen as good, and I’d say specifically in the back end, we very much so disagree. That said, at least this group of friends aren’t looking forward to a 1-4 of Cruz, Reynolds, Hayes, Suwinski. The lineup is being taken seriously, which I found kind of incredible. I even asked them if they saw the numbers they put up?

I’ve done this for years now, and it’s grown for obvious reasons as I’ve done it, but this is the first year the Pirates weren’t just the team at the bottom commenting on the teams playing baseball which was fun for me, problem is, nobody took their spot.

6. Bonus: We Can’t Have Nice Things

Jason Mackey broke news this afternoon that the Pirates may be without the services of Johan Oviedo next year. According to the beat reporter he’s experienced pain in his elbow, no course of action has been decided but Tommy John has been discussed.

Everything we talk about has centered on that starting rotation, and while I care about the player, and certainly don’t want to gloss over the loss, we thought they needed 2 before this, and most of us generously gave them Oviedo as a lock for the rotation. Meaning, he is still a relatively unproven commodity, so considering him a for sure was already asking for less than we probably should have.

This whole job just got harder to envision now. I may think they now need 3, but in reality all this does is ensure that 1 is off the table.

I’ll also say, this happening now as opposed to April takes away the excuse they planned on anything. It’s November, fix it.

We’ll have plenty of time to discuss Oviedo who I really do think had a big season on the horizon. Stay tuned to Jason Mackey for further details, he’s sure to be the one who gets details on his own reporting.

Big blow.

11-6-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Here we go, into the wild.

For the first time in quite a few seasons, the Pirates have a good base of young talent in place, more on the way, money to spend and a stated goal of winning in the next season. We have our own hurt feelings, letdowns, mistrust of the regime. We have the history of not doing enough, or choosing poorly when reaching.

That said, we don’t know how this regime will approach what is regardless of your opinion as to how they’ll handle it, a crucial offseason for this franchise.

We haven’t had this experience much, if ever, bluntly, I can’t really remember thinking particularly hard about how much I thought they’d add in 2013. Kinda just felt like we’d just grow with the players they developed, but they added.

There are too many quality pitchers on the market for the Pirates to pretend they couldn’t get one, even reasonably priced.

Unlike previous off-seasons where we knew subtraction was the focus, we know additions are on the way here this time.

1. Secure the Homefront First

Before the Pirates start adding players or wheeling and dealing, I’d really like to see them focus on and finish an extension with Mitch Keller. The Pirates own his rights for 2 more seasons through arbitration, and this year he’ll likely make 6.5 million on Arb 2. No matter who the Pirates bring in and add to the rotation, solid chance Mitch Keller is still the staff ace heading into 2024. Just as solid a chance whomever they bring in via free agency makes more than 6.5 million per too.

Now, if I’m a GM, I know technically Mitch knows this, and I also know there’s no reason to rub his face in it. Locking up a guy like Keller for even just a few more years will also send a signal to the league if you sign here for 2-3 seasons you aren’t getting flipped next year.

Extensions for Hayes and Reynolds have already started showing the league this team is thinking farther ahead than next year’s budget, but free agents that matter, they want to see a core, and they want to trust that core will be together for most of the time they could be.

At the end of the day, guys want to win, and they want to see a team secure proven winners when they develop them.

Mitch is a huge organizational win and testament to perseverance on the player and development staff’s parts. To let him walk after 2025 would be like paying your car off then totaling it on the way to the grocery store. You will have experienced 4 years of pain for 2 years of pleasure, which if you think about it sounds a lot like the rebuild theory we’ve just watched. Signing players like Mitch prevents that 2 years from being written in stone, it could be much longer.

2. So Who Else is in Danger?

The Pirates just cleared a bunch of room so they could add back in the 60-day IL players they had on the roster.

Next they’ll have to make room for the Rule 5 protections, and further still free agent acquisitions.

So we all saw the list that already got shipped/waived/outrighted/traded/non-tendered/option declined…whew, let’s look at who else should probably have a bag packed.

Add all this up and you’ll see right now it’s at 37 of 40. Add back in those 60-man guys it tightens back up, then, well, you get the point. The precise number isn’t as important as showing the types of guys left on this roster you might consider “fodder”, or “maybe we can sneak them through” types.

For instance, Nick Gonzales is not in either of those spots, even while his 26 man inclusion isn’t written in stone.

Hunter Stratton – at 27 years old, he was already a late bloomer but his performance in AAA made his rule 5 protection decision enough of a lock the Pirates went ahead and did it last year. Having guys with options matters for bullpens, might be his best attribute we can measure.

Colin Selby – We saw a decent amount of Colin. What there was to like in spurts. What there was to never want to see again in spurts too. Up and down through out the season with mixed results. The arm is big enough to want to keep just for another crack at developing it.

Osvaldo Bido – Valuable innings provided in 2023 have probably not gone unnoticed. With options, he’s easy to stash in AAA and call up for a fill in or bullpen need.

Kyle Nicolas – Really some plus pitches, very limited opportunity in MLB. Another example of a guy who showed a Rule 5 decision needed made and it was. Likely to remain on the roster in AAA but there is something there.

Alika Williams – Arguably the best SS glove in the system. Arguably not enough to make him indispensable. The defense is top notch not doubt, but the bat just didn’t look MLB level in his expanded look last year. His defense is a luxury, I suppose if you can keep it without pain, do so, but he can’t be enough to prevent a FA signing can he?

Thomas Hatch – Waiver claim who performed well. Nothing to say here but he’s the type of guy who has been through this process enough to already have his kid’s school transcripts pulled. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, but if he doesn’t make the 26-man, he will have to be DFA’d.

Bailey Falter – I thought Bailey did admirably in his time with the Buccos after the Rodolfo Castro deal, really. I also think he has no options, and a team claiming they are WINNING can’t go into April with Bailey Falter in their rotation. I don’t see a bullpen role for him either. This leads me to the belief they’d likely be forced to move on at some point anyway, so might as well sneak him through when everyone is distracted?

Canaan Smith-Njigba – I don’t think he’s been given a fair shake really, I also don’t see anyone pushing him off the much needed depth coffers either, but if they add in the outfield from the outside, you could see CSN being a casualty.

That’s it. That’s the list of players barring trades that I see as ok to at least consider trying to pass through waivers. Which again for most of these guys would mean simply going back to AAA. Some would have the choice to claim free agency too if they cleared so waiving them is essentially cutting them.

If I have a shocker to add it might be Roansy Contreras. I’m not trying to be alarmist, but he too has no options, and if he doesn’t have the fastball, as much as it would hurt, I’m not sure how you keep him.

I’m not officially putting him on this list since I’m just dreaming up worst case scenario stuff here, but if they can’t help him, well, you know. NEEDING to make the 26-man puts him in dangerous territory.

In no way am I saying everyone not mentioned here is cool as a cucumber about their spot, I’m just saying they will have to make room to potentially protect others, add free agents and generally flesh this thing out. Trades could also change the dynamic of this list, but based on what we know right this second, this is where I’d leave it when talking about who could be moved on from in order to create space.

3. Shakeup in the Central

So that happened.

Craig Counsell's $8 million-a-year deal with the Chicago Cubs is an industry-shaking deal. In recent years, multiple coaches have pointed out that it's more lucrative financially to take a job with a college program than an MLB team. Counsell's deal could help change that in MLB.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 6, 2023

That’s right, now we’ll see Craig Counsell coaching against the Pirates as a division rival, but in Chicago as opposed to Milwaukee.

My god, can you imagine back in the day Leyland going to Philly or New York? This has to be a gut punch for Brewers fans, more than that, it’s a smart manager jumping off one ship before it’s started taking on water in exchange for a bigger, better frame with more resources that still needs some work.

Make no mistake, the Cubs believe they’ve just made a decision that will one day get them back to the promised land, any thoughts they’d take the foot off the gas this off season are out the window.

Milwaukee has already been dealing with blow after blow. First losing Woodruff well into if not all of next year, his last year of team control. Corbin Burnes entering his last year of control and already disgruntled from last year’s arb trial. Willy Adames with only 2 years left, and a lot of youth on the way. This might be a perfect excuse to hit the plunger a bit. I could argue they’d be wise to do so because it stands to be a quick dip with where their farm is, but politically in Wisconsin, it wouldn’t be well received as they’ve already been rumbling with the city.

For Chicago, I don’t know how to put this aside from to say, it feels like an adult hire whereas David Ross the former player felt like it got a bit too loose at times. If we know anything it’s that Counsell will run a tight ship and he’ll get the most out of the talent he’s provided. Feels like it’s been Cubs tradition to have a bunch of talent and underachieve, that’s something very likely to change.

It’s not often we see a baseball manager willingly become a free agent, so I’d have to say Mr. Counsell at the very least bet on himself.

Probably a good bet.

4. Make Starting Pitching Star Again

Rob Manfred during the World Series talked about the role of starting pitching in the game, and how it’s changed over the years and in many ways become devalued. Specifically pointing to teams pitching bullpen games or TBA instead of a matchup of two starters.

It’s not ideal for the game but I’m also not sure how you combat it. This isn’t about guys being poor athletes, it’s about analytics.

Blake Snell for instance, one of the best around this year has in innings 1-6 an exemplary 2.29 ERA, he pitched beyond the 6th 3 times this year.

How about a good pitcher like Corbin Burnes, 1-6 he posted 3.57. He only passed the 6th 9 times all season.

Baseball’s analytics have definitively proven that when a hitter sees a pitcher 3 times, in that third time they are much more likely to do damage. It’s really that simple.

Sure, there are injury concerns and inning counts, and high velocities, and hunting strikeouts and spin rates. All that stuff is true too, but the fact remains that no matter what the league would choose to do to combat this, no matter what coaching staffs would do to work around the new rules, they’d always come back to the one truth none of them can un-know. If you let a pitcher see the third time through the order, it’s on you coach, and you better be right, cause the numbers say you’re dirt dumb.

All of this to say, I see the problem, I don’t like it either, but I’m not sure you can fix it.

5. Jared Triolo+ Subscription?

Hey why not, the streaming industry can just add + to the end and get more money out of you right?

There is a lot of chatter within the Pirates system that Jared Triolo has found a previously undiscovered penchant for power. The Pirates last year before sending him back to AAA Indianapolis made some small adjustments to his stance they hoped would help him put a bit more sting into balls without sacrificing everything else he was already doing well.

They also hoped there was a bit of recovery going on with his hamate bone procedure which historically robs hitters of power until fully healed which can take a full season for some guys.

What he did after his recall was encouraging but too small a sample size to determine much of anything aside form maybe a slight uptick in exit velocity which even that could be nothing more than glitches in the matrix.

Point is, in general the team seems excited about what this kid most of us have already put a fairly low ceiling on could become. So if nothing else, don’t act like it’s out of nowhere if indeed he does look like Jared Triolo+ in 2024. Sure would be nice if a couple years down the line a few NL Central teams looked at him like their Kolten Wong.