10-30-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

This is probably the last week before some of our questions start getting answered. It’ll start out slow with easy ones like declining the option on Jarlin Garcia and quickly move on to purging the 40-man to fit back in the 60-day IL guys and on to the non-tender deadline from there. Teams change a lot over the off season but for the first time in almost a decade we should be looking at a roster we think can be in the conversation all year long.

1. Top Prospects Largely Pitchers

If you look at the way the Pirates roster finished up in 2023, it’s easy to see that pitching, especially starting pitching is a problem.

So it should be seen as good news that 12 of the Pirates current top 15 prospects (MLB Pipeline) are pitchers. This doesn’t even include pitchers who haven’t quite locked themselves in on an MLB job like Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras.

Of this group there are 3 or 4 who have a legitimate chance to reach and impact MLB in 2024.

I love the depth, they certainly need it. They’ll still need to add from the outside for tested help, we all know that, but this backing is important.

It could also be important because everyone wants pitching, and top prospects. When you have lots of both, you have what you need to really go shopping on the trade market.

One thing I’d like to really help people with is this eventuality. The Pirates will absolutely wind up moving someone from this list for help and it’s going to really make some of you ask, well, what the hell did we work so hard and suffer so long to get all these kids for?

I’m going to use someone I personally have fallen in love with as a prospect, because when I say “you” will have to deal with this, when and if the Pirates trade Jared Jones for help, I will have to talk myself down.

Jones is close to ready, arguably was last year. That said, Jones isn’t likely to be an impact starting pitcher in this league when he is first called up. He could, but it’s not likely. It’s far more likely he is serviceable, even spectacular at times, but more than anything, a visibly young pitcher with things to learn. So if you trade a guy like him at this stage, you’re trading a guy you really think will grow into the gig, for a guy you hope has already done that heavy lifting and are ready to jump right in now with no training wheels.

If you in return get a guy who helps get this team into the Wild Card or better, you’ll still be miffed to see Jones killing it for whatever team you sent him to in 2027, but at the same time, you have to have what you need when you need it.

I don’t want Jones traded, that’s not what this is about, I’m just saying regardless of how much you personally believe in a prospect, there are very few you should expect to jump in and look the part like a playoff team needs them to. If you can move someone like Bubba Chandler with an MLB ETA of 2025 or 2026 and bring back someone who gives you 20 wins over 2 years in a starting role in 2024 and 2025, it’s probably a good move, even if Bubba looks like the fish that got away in 2027.

It hurts but it’s an undying truth in MLB. 99% of the time you have to give to get and you’re usually playing with the timeline as opposed to the belief you’re moving duds for studs.

2. Solving First Base

I’ve combed through all the known free agent first baseman. I’ve looked at all the guys who could be available via trade, even the stretches. Here’s what I’ve come to at First base, there are 4 answers I see that make some level of sense. I’m factoring in things like Rhys Hoskins and the Phillies seemingly being in lockstep that he’s returning.

First, they could address it internally. This would require either moving a prospect, or throwing your hands up and saying Jared Triolo and Conner Joe are enough. I’m not a fan of this, if only because I think they’ll need Triolo to cover other spots and there is no natural platoon here.

Next, they could acquire a first baseman via trade. The only one I’m really interested in with some years of control is Seth Brown but I can’t promise it’s a great move. I like some indicators that he could be better than he’s been, but it’s no guarantee and at this stage they really should be looking for that or just go with option A.

The other two options are on the free agent board. Carlos Santana is already buzzing because of comments he made, and I could certainly see it. He would play and provide time for Joe and Triolo to still get time. That said, it would be a short term solution and assuming he’ll play as well year over year at his age is a poor bet.

Lastly and my favorite option, go sign Jeimer Candelario for 3 years at 21 million for an AAV of 7 million. Jeimer has played a bunch more 3rd base, but in 2023 he logged 21 games there for the Cubs in a pennant race. He’s a switch hitter who last year in 505 at bats hit 22 homeruns with a .251 BA and an .807 OPS. He’ll be 30 years old in 2024 so a 3 year deal wouldn’t be insane. All around solid baseball player who can help even off the bench affordably should another solution take over 1B. I really think this could be a sneaky good acquisition. I’d go higher than this to get it done, but I’d start here and feel it was a fair offer.

3. Off Season Training

I’ve seen some criticism that Pirates players are seeking outside help to develop their games. Last year we had Keller, Hayes notably but hardly alone in reaching outside the org and early on we’ve already seen Joshua Palacios and Henry Davis at Drive Line working on their swings.

This isn’t just a Pirates thing folks, these organizations exist because there is demand, and even for those who don’t go that route, just about everyone has at the very least a retired veteran or two they train with.

This isn’t about players slipping away from the team, in fact many including the Pirates encourage it, but the narrative almost always bounces back to incompetence.

They’re all checking back in too, it’s not like they go off and learn to hit everything at some certain launch angle and Haines starts changing them back in Spring. I don’t like this hitting instruction setup the Pirates employ either, but none of this is weird, nor does it say anything in particular about the Pirates development system.

When a player eventually “gets it” their story will always be a mosaic of reasons, people, methods and experiences that get the credit. I actually talked to one player who told me he was watching his nephew in a batting cage and remembered all the way back to his own youth playing days with the uncomfortable locked elbow position everyone was taught getting started and he massaged it back into his stance and it changed everything about his bat plane and timing.

Nothing is off the table, and it’s for the simple fact that nobody knows for sure what’ll help anyone. Adjustments of fractions of seconds or millimeters in arm slot on a follow through can take a guy from bust to boom. If a coaching staff were to be so proud as to claim they had all the answers, well, they wouldn’t be a coaching staff for long.

4. Baseball’s Boss Wants Starting Pitching to Star Again

Rob Manfred talked about how baseball has started to wonder about how pitching has been trending in the game and made some comments to a small gaggle of reporters after game 1 of the World Series.

“Historically, starting pitchers have been some of the biggest stars in the game, and the way that pitching is being used right now has caused a diminution of the star quality for some of our starters, I think that there’s a lot of fans who feel like the change from ‘Let’s see what today’s pitching matchup is’ to ‘Who’s the opener today?’ has not been positive.”

His suggestion was to potentially toy with the number of pitchers a team can carry, with 12 being the obvious next choice. Obviously just a thought but something they could take up next year with the rules committee.

Now, this doesn’t seem to fit super well with the recent revelations that 35% of all MLB pitchers have had or are currently recovering from UCL, AKA Tommy John procedures although changing the way they have used starting pitchers certainly hasn’t slowed that number it would seem asking more from less wouldn’t be well received by the union or the globs of statisticians filling every managers head with tales of 3rd time through the order horror stories.

I appreciate the acknowledgement that fans aren’t enjoying this aspect of the game the way they used to, I just don’t know if there’s really a way to fix it. If it were truly about babying arms, I suppose I could just say cut it out it ain’t helping, but reality is the numbers very much so say that the 3rd time through an order, even for the best of the best, there is a huge jump in the offensive production. That’s not changing, and because pitchers aren’t often being asked to try it, most of them will never learn the art of slowly showing your arsenal.

No, it’s much more likely to me we’ll slowly evolve what defines “Star Starting Pitcher”. If you grew up watching Don Drysdale, Nolan Ryan, John Smoltz types, good luck, you’ll never ever count the 5-6 inning guys in that class.

Worth discussing, I’m just not sure like “banning the shift” you can legislate these particular analytics out of the game, even if it would be better for at least the star quality of the position. In fact, I’m not really sure how much that helped, but it sure looked less dumb to me while watching a game.

I really try to change with the game, but I’ll never be able to swallow seeing a 40 foot hole on one side of the infield and not see the hitter slap balls over there, and I’ll likely never consider a starter who goes 5 or 6 innings on average “great”. It certainly hasn’t made me think you don’t need starters you want to see every fifth day either.

One last contradiction here, you can’t make a bunch of changes to try to boost offense like this league just did and then expect pitchers to do something they already weren’t doing under better conditions.

5. It’s Gonna Take a Star

If there’s one thing you should take from watching the playoffs this year it’s that you probably don’t need 5 All Star Starters, but beyond that, it should be clear you need some star hitters.

And I mean like the whole league sits up and takes notice stars.

This team needs to add from the outside, but lets be real, if they have the star power they’ll need to win, it’s going to have to come from inside. Oneil Cruz needs to take a jump from super interesting, super high ceiling prospect to full blown fear inducing figure. Or Jack Suwinski has to find consistency and prove that 40 homerun power can manifest itself all in one season and not be surrounded by 150 Ks.

Henry Davis needs to follow his less than inspiring rookie campaign with something that resembles a difference maker.

Listen, I’m not saying all or any of this is going to happen, I’m just saying if you or anyone else is suggesting this team could possibly go on an Arizona Diamondbacks type run next year, it simply has to.

It won’t be enough for Bryan Reynolds to have a great year, because he’s expected to perform and his gap from “average” to “really strong” isn’t all that wide.

No, the Pirates need to get it from one of these kids going on a tear, really emerging.

Even then, Ke’Bryan’s evolution needs to be permanent. Endy needs to hit much closer to how he hit in 2022. Keller needs to be a Cy Young finalist.

It sounds like I’m exaggerating I’m sure but while I’m happy about the progress this team made in 2023, and see it trending upward next year, I think many are really missing how much of this exact type of thing went right for Arizona this year.

Take Corbin Carroll for example, the likely NL Rookie of the Year in 2023. Well, he got a cup of coffee in 2022, 32 games, 115 plate appearances, and he hit .260 with 4 homeruns. Positive for sure, bright future for sure, but would you as a fan have headed into 2023 thinking he would play 155 games, hit 25 homeruns, steal 54 bases, hit .285 with an .868 OPS?

I look at someone like Nick Gonzales who had a similar sized cup of coffee 128 plate appearances this year, he’s at .209, 2 homers, nothing spectacular, certainly not enough to have him deemed the automatic odd man out.

Point is, if a guy like Carroll can take a big jump, it could happen here too, and more importantly, it’s a must.

To be clear, I think this team can be a Wild Card team in 2024 just through average growth expectations and additions to the roster, but going on a run, I simply can’t get there without something or someone more accurately turning into a butterfly.

10-23-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The playoffs are nearing conclusion and we’ll soon know the World Series combatants. Will it be the Phillies and Astros in a rematch, or will the Upstart Diamondbacks chin up to the defending NL Champs? Maybe those Rangers want their share of the Lone Star State’s baseball pride. One thing’s for sure, all of this has my head spinning thinking about the off season, and what a big one it is for this franchise.

1. Did Endy’s Offensive Numbers Leave a Crack for Henry?

It’s clear that Endy Rodriguez was ahead of Henry Davis defensively in 2023. Take the pile of reasons including the perception that the Pirates made it so with poor choices and toss them out the window.

None of the reasons matter, just the result, Endy is a developed catcher who still has room to grow, Henry has room to grow, but has also barely started developing.

We know the Pirates have at least under Ben Cherington, prioritized the defensive capability of their backstops.

All of this leads you to the “inevitable” conclusion that Endy is the starting catcher when we get to February and this Henry catching stuff is a waste of time.

That said, are we just assuming Endy is eventually going to hit like he did in the minors? I say this because he certainly didn’t hit in the Bigs. I mean, better than Austin Hedges, but if Henry is given a real shot back there and he’s even passible, can he take the spot?

I’ll say this, the Pirates are at least open to it. One thing I’m hearing repeatedly is the overriding thought that roles won in 2023 shouldn’t be assumed filled for 2024.

2. JT Brubaker Ahead of Schedule?

Talking with Michael McKenry last week he told me JT was already throwing off flat ground a month ago, which would put him ahead of the schedule we traditionally see in these types of recoveries.

Brubaker is one of the tougher decisions the Pirates will face on the non-tender deadline. He’s due for arbitration and should get somewhere from 2-2.5 million. If his recovery progresses like this it’s not insane to think he could make it back sometime in July or Early August.

Might be a nice punch in the arm right around when a team like this would hopefully be looking to bolster their staff. Something as small as being slightly ahead of schedule could swing this decision into keep territory.

You may think Brubaker isn’t good enough to be one of their 5 starters, and you may very well end up being right, but for a team that never spends what you want, 2 million for what could be a nice, experienced option might just be important.

3. Don’t Be Shocked if the Pirates Bring in More Players Than You Expect

We all keep the holes on this roster at top of mind when we discuss this offseason. Over and over again they are repeated. 2 starters and a first baseman we say, to anyone who’ll listen. We say them at the beginning of every conversation just to make sure who we’re talking to know we’re qualified to speculate.

That doesn’t make them any less true, but it’s also started in my mind to prevent any of us from going any farther. We name those things, nod at each other and almost non-verbally acknowledge that this is enough to ask for and we just back off. Yelling Oh, and Cutch too! almost in the distance as we’ve ended the conversation a while ago.

I remember feeling this same way last offseason. I thought they’d get a starter, a bullpen arm, a first baseman, someone to catch, but I didn’t expect much more. But they did get more. You don’t have to think they were all good moves, but they weren’t bare minimum.

I think the Bucs might just go out and bring in more competition even in places we aren’t seeing an opening. For instance, they have plenty of options who can play the outfield, but only two who you’d consider everyday players. Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski are that bar, below that you have Bae, Palacios, Joe, Davis and whomever else you want to name. Well, maybe they fill this hole with someone from outside.

Meaning, maybe 2024 is less about ensuring kids get playing time and instead making sure they have MLB quality depth everywhere. The 40-man would be 37 players you could count on to give you MLB results. It could mean instead of letting one of the middle infielders win 2B in Spring, they bring in someone for them to beat beside each other.

Look, we’ve been writing and talking about getting these prospects on boarded for 4 years. It’s been our entire focus, every move had to be made with that in mind. To a degree, it still comes into play of course, but this is a method many teams will employ. You must have depth and quality depth to win, so you either stock up on Quad A players from other teams or you build up the top end forcing some of your own prospects back a bit.

I don’t know if that’s the direction they’ll go, maybe not, but I keep going back to the GM saying they want to reach the playoffs. I’m not sure the “expected” is enough to get that done. Maybe it is, maybe they patch the obvious holes and the kids evolve and next thing you know, boom playoffs. Or, maybe, you fill some holes a bit less front facing, force the depth down and let the cream rise to the top.

Food for thought.

4. Rule 5 Protections

The Pirates could protect or leave exposed any number of players this year. Before I start worrying about whom the Pirates may have to send on their way in exchange, or non-tender, even before I wonder how much room to leave for free agents, it always makes more sense to first understand how many players you could see getting claimed.

Sometimes you roll the dice like last year with Blake Sabol, and you lose. He had a fine first year for the Giants, and time will tell how badly this will hurt. A fresh lesson always hurts worse than the collective of history though, and overall, as much time as we spend on this year after year, it so hardly matters, and yet, that’s largely because teams don’t often mess this up.

Here’s who I see as the best bets to be protected.

Braxton Ashcraft, Tsung-Che Cheng, and Jase Bowen. Again, there are a ton of guys depending on what you think you see the Pirates being concerned with, but if I’m using Blake Sabol as a barometer, it’s hard for me to see them sweating Malcom Nunez, or Gorski.

It’s early yet, maybe after thinking on this a bit more I’ll talk myself into something else. In fact even of the 3 I mentioned, Cheng is the only one I’d call a lock and Tsung-Che himself didn’t do many favors after his promotion to Altoona. It’s hard to watch him play and come away from it feeling like there isn’t something special there. Ashcraft was much the same, and the only reason to leave him unprotected is how little he’s actually pitched.

If you’ve learned anything from their choices on this front these past few years, it should be unless they see the player capable of MLB innings they tend to just leave it be. Liover Peguero is the last one I remember them reaching for a bit, but they had plenty of room and they knew the decision was coming when they acquired him. That’s just not the case right now with anyone else in my mind. If Jared Jones was eligible, he’d be a for sure protection, but they should feel no pressure to get that done right now.

5. Fan Bases are Built on Season Ticket Holders…

It’s true, a thriving franchise has a strong base of season ticket holders. They’ll for the most part loyally ride along with you through the ups and downs. Every year there are defectors, some just can’t handle another rebuilding cycle. Some couldn’t deal with that one guy getting dealt, heck, some are just mad beer costs too much. Most years, in most places those are replaced by others for myriad reasons.

The best way to add to that is to win of course, but not just that, to really build this STH base, they’re going to have to prove to fans they won’t need to reach the same depths next time the window closes on a block of veterans. Fans will take a couple years gearing back up, but the bottoming out is destructive.

Now, don’t get me wrong, they aren’t losing some idiot like me regardless, but if you want families back, or friend groups, or couples who add to the re-up coffers year after year, you have to show that ten year valleys and three year heights aren’t going to be the norm.

That’s the GM Cycle. Come in and you get to attack the problem however you like, or more accurately, you’re able to execute whatever you sold the ownership on. The goal for this one was to burn it down, build it back on fertile ground and hopefully sustain a winning culture.

You know, stuff every GM promises when they come in the door. Some are awfully convincing too. These are things we just aren’t going to know until it’s played out through the decade, and yes, he’ll almost assuredly get that long. That’s part of what I take from allowing some of the longer term contracts, it’s not like Nutting to assume risk that’ll outlive the executive who inked it.

This TV deal is important too. If it’s absorbed by MLB I think we’ll get little more than games on TV. If it’s through NESN the Penguins new carrier I think we can expect much more local programming that we’ve come to expect and probably more. There is fast coming a day when Regional Sports Networks will fully meet their maker, but for now, if the Pirates have a choice and financially it’s similar, I’m pulling for joining the Penguins.

A good performing team with a good TV situation will help grow this base too. This offseason for this organization is huge, in a ton of ways up to and including the club finally investing in the area surrounding the ball park.

Good.

Cause the players shouldn’t be the only subjects of “getting better”.