Five Pirates Thoughts at Five –

10-16-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s that time again, and I’m still not struggling to think of things to talk about. Maybe by January I’ll be running dry.

1. Who Bats Leadoff in 2024?

I don’t think the answer is all that mysterious, the Pirates will likely use Oneil Cruz. That’s not my preference bluntly, but when he’s been available, he’s been Derek Shelton’s primary choice.

I personally believe a 2-4 of Reynolds, Hayes and Cruz makes a lot of sense but if not Cruz, who? That’s part of the story too, maybe Cruz isn’t perfect for leadoff, but he might be the best option the Pirates have.

To fans, the choice usually has much to do with speed, which Cruz certainly has, but more than anything you want an on base percentage guy up there and ideally someone who will play the majority of games.

Here are the best options as I see them based on the mix of guys we know are on the table.
Ji-hwan Bae – Has the speed, but hasn’t shown the OBP you need there and isn’t a guarantee to make the team, let alone play most games.

Andrew McCutchen – if you task him with it, Cutch will get on base at a .350 clip. The speed has escaped him to a degree and I don’t see him playing the majority of games in 2024. Might also be better used lower in the lineup to produce runs.

Ke’Bryan Hayes – He’s been Shelton’s favorite choice when Cruz was unavailable or they were facing a lefty starter, but as much improvement as Hayes showed in 2023, OBP wasn’t one of them, his walk rate crashed last year even as his Slug grew a whopping 100 points. Likely need him in the heart of the order.

Jared Triolo – The Pirates experimented with this, but feels to me like Jared needs to win a position before he wins a permanent position in the lineup.

Maybe Oneil Cruz is the best bet to start the season. The next player I see coming who could potentially take this spot and not let go is Termarr Johnson, but it’s too early to have him enter this discussion.

2. The Playoffs Even the Playing Field

Major League Baseball changed the playoff format last year, but that’s not what has caused the changes we’ve seen. I think that’s more about the timing and length of the series.

It used to take a good staff to win in the playoffs, now it requires an elite bullpen and 2 or 3 good starters.

100 win teams have a full rotation of starters, but in the playoffs, it’s really more about riding the top of your rotation and that bullpen. In other words, it doesn’t matter that your 4th and 5th starters aren’t good, so long as your top 2 or 3 are elite, or at least performing like they are.

Listen, I’m not saying you shouldn’t try like hell to have a 5 deep rotation, after all with injury and performance ups and downs you’ll need them, but if you get into the dance and you have those 2 or 3, hey, the turkey might just be on the table.

3. Arbitration Estimates are in…

Lets talk our way through each one, their likelihood to be tendered and potentially the path forward for all of them.

• Mitch Keller: $6 million – Obvious tender here, this team can’t live without him, certainly can’t attain the GM’s stated goal in 24 if he isn’t here. He’s entering Arb 2, meaning unless the Pirates and Mitch act, 2025 will be his last in black and gold. In fact if they can’t get a contract done, 2024 might be his last. It’s for this reason I think you’ll see this never go to arbitration, the Pirates must make a go of extending Mitch Keller, they simply haven’t developed enough alternatives to pretend it’s ok to move him.
• David Bednar: $4.7 million – Of course they’ll tender him. David is entering Arb 1, so he has 2 more following this. 4.7 million isn’t a scary number for what Bednar brings, but if he replicates his 2023 you can expect this number to jump up over 7 for 2025. I am not a fan of extending closers and entering his age 30 season I’m inclined to just ride out arb and allow Mlodzinski or Holderman to claim the duty. That said, there is a path here, extend him for a couple years beyond his arb years and front load it so it compensates for his potentially declining stats. In other words, extend David Bednar the reliever, even as you use him as a closer. For me, this would have to be a hometown discount. I just don’t believe markets like this should make big deals for closers. And yes, it hurts me to say because he’s a local product, I’m just trying to be as emotionless as possible here because emotions and sports management don’t make good bedfellows.
• JT Brubaker: $2.28 million – This is our first real interesting case. JT had UCL (Tommy John) surgery at the beginning of 2023. The timeline for recovery is usually 12-18 months, and that probably means he won’t meaningfully pitch for the Pirates in 2024. Maybe toward the end of the season, but even then, I’m not sure as a starter. That said, he has 2 years of arb left and is relatively proven as a capable innings eater. Not sure what the Pirates will do here, but I’d tender him, offer 2 and hope you get a fully recovered JT by the end of the year. The Pirates might feel the window for needing the type of service he provides will expire after 2024, but to me you don’t toss an arm out that could potentially be a solid starter making 4 mil or so in 2025.
• Miguel Andujar: $2.2 million – Andujar is entering Arb 3 his last year of team control. He had a tremendous season in the minors and didn’t embarrass himself in his late season call up either. 2.2 is nothing, if he even got that much, but the real issue with Miguel is where do you play him? He’s really a DH who can play corner outfield in a pinch, but I’m not sure he’s on my depth chart for either. We could see them do something similar to what they did last year. Sign him and see if he clears waivers when DFA’d because he costs too much to pick up as a flyer, but his 2023 might make that unrealistic, it was legitimately promising. If I had to guess, the Pirates let him walk. Best case he’s a helpful bat in 2024, but I’m not sure I saw a sense of urgency on the Pirates part to showcase him or understand what they had after he was recalled. Strongly leaning toward letting him go. And no, he isn’t a 1B, won’t be a 1B, and if you saw it for 2 weeks, you also would say, he’s not a 1B.
• Connor Joe: $2 million – I know he’s a popular choice to non-tender, but bluntly, he isn’t by the team. He’s entering Arb for the first time and there is little doubt the Pirates will tender him. He plays a position of need well enough to keep and put together a pretty good season for a bench player, which is exactly what he’d be on a good team. I’m actually of the belief 2 million might be a little light here, could get 2.25 or so.
• Ryan Borucki: $1.3 million – This is Ryan’s last year of arbitration and he proved himself to be a valuable lefty that Derek Shelton felt he could use just about anywhere he wanted. If he’s your wipeout lefty in 2024, I’m not satisfied, but if he’s part of the pen, I think that’s a good thing. Can’t see them non-tendering him for 1.3, that’s a mere bump over the waiver wire claim he was when he got here. Even if he reverts, it’s a very small risk.

Pretty small class actually. Think about how this will look in 2026, lord knows the Pirates are.

The way baseball is structured, you have to make these decisions, specifically to tender or non-tender before you’ve signed one free agent, so you better have a plan. It’s one thing to say let’s move on from Joe, for example, we can do better, it’s another thing to drop him, leave a hole and then can becomes have to. Not a position GM’s like being in and this team already has a few have to’s.

4. First Base

Look, the conversation surrounding first base has become insane. Let’s get some truths out of the way.

First, not everyone is capable of playing first base. It’s hard to believe I have to say this in a town where we haven’t had a solid internally developed player since Kevin Young. This is a defensive position that is admittedly often used as a second DH spot in this league, but for even that, you kinda have to be able to field ground balls, scoop throws, make accurate short arm throws and we often treat it like a dump for misfit players.

Second, experimentation is not something you do when you claim winning is the goal. That means this must be manned by someone who’s done it, or at least has proven they’re capable.

Henry Davis playing first base makes a ton of sense. They need a first baseman, he needs a position. Have you considered for one second that perhaps they’ve explored this in practice and he simply didn’t look capable of fielding there? I’m not saying that’s what happened here, but it makes too much sense to have simply not explored it.

I’d also add here, we have to stop with all this wasting an arm or he doesn’t hit for enough power crap. Is it a bat you want in the lineup? Can they handle it? Boom.

First basemen are rarely drafted, they’re moved. This team will eventually either move someone or they’ll sign someone. Now if they sit here with players such as Henry who have no position, should we assume they didn’t try it? Should we assume his arm is just so good the Pirates chose to let him rot instead of “waste” his arm?

All I’m saying is, can we at least not act like this situation is as simple as find hole insert player, it’s not and that goes for every name you might want to add.

5. Injury Updates

You aren’t likely to hear much on some of the players you’re worried about. Andrew McCutchen for instance isn’t even technically a team employee at the moment. You’re more likely to hear from him than the team.

JT Brubaker, well there isn’t going to be much until well into next season.

Point is if you’re waiting for info on this stuff, it simply isn’t coming anytime soon.

Every week I do the Q&A I get 2 or 3 of these queries and I figured I’d address it here a bit.

The Pirates Catching Situation

10-15-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

A lot of us have made some rather large assumptions.

We’ve assumed that with two top prospects developing as catchers, the Pirates would wind up with one at least panning out.

We’ve assumed because Endy Rodriguez progressed as a defender he’d won the job.

We assumed Henry Davis’ time behind the dish had come and gone based on the assumption that Endy had already made it and started to take root.

But much like opinions, assumption can just as easily make an ass out of you.

So let’s walk through the Pirates catching depth chart, where it could be headed, what we should look for and ultimately can this team afford to have both Davis and Endy catching even if both can do the job.

Catching in the Bigs is Really Hard

Before we get into the pieces we’re dealing with and where they are in their progression, let’s start here, it was always a lot to expect for a rookie to come up here and look like they’d been catching professionally for quite some time.

There aren’t many who look the part from the jump and the ones who do, well, most of them either wind up being ONLY good behind the dish, or they wind up in the Hall of Fame.

Even Pirates Catchers we revere were more acceptable because of the team around them than they were great players.

When you sit back and think about the best catchers in baseball today the list isn’t long. JT Realmuto can hit, has world class pop time and does a good job handling his staff and frames well enough to steal his share of calls.

Adley Rutschman stepped right in and hit from the jump, and became a top end defensive catcher almost just as quickly.

Now, how a player starts out only matters at the start, how he develops from there often tells the story of what type of player he is.

Largely, it’s a position that requires years to even rise to the point of not being a liability in one way or another. For most, it’s a position that requires so much attention defensively that offense is largely ignored or at least minimized early on in the development and that’s if by some chance you managed to not hit too much and have your club deem you too valuable to risk injury or rest time using you behind the dish.

Point is, in year one or two, or even as a prospect, it’s usually far too early to exclaim you know what they’ll be. The best you can do is trend plot and see if the arrow is pointed up or if they’re so deficient in an aspect of the job the experiment needs to end.

If and when MLB introduces robo umps, I think we’ll see a lot of this change. Framing will be replaced by elite blocking skills or something of the like.

Endy Rodriguez

The Pirates, and specifically Ben Cherington wanted Endy in a deal before they eventually acquired him. In fact, they first scouted him while trying to trade Starling Marte. That never came to fruition, but Cherington tends to circle back on pieces he wanted and found a way to drag the Mets into a 3 team deal that ultimately secured the young catcher’s services for his development system.

At the time, the Pirates had nobody in the pipeline and he represented just about THE hope for the future. Anyone who follows prospects knows how dangerous and or stupid it is to believe one of anything is enough in a development system.

To his credit, Endy showed some chops on his way up, even as the Pirates continued to work him elsewhere. When the bat showed up big time in 2022, internally the Pirates decided to really put the foot on the gas with Endy as a Catcher, even as they started to work on their 1:1 selection from 2021, Henry Davis.

The selection of Henry immediately sent fans to the message boards to declare Endy the future somewhere else, but the team never waivered from their belief that either or both of these guys could grow into the job.

Eventually Henry was called up first, and the Pirates quickly showed the fans and these players, having Baseball Reference call you a catcher doesn’t mean the team has to be ready for the same tag.

Endy did get the call and unlike Henry, was seen as being capable of catching at the MLB level immediately.

For 2023, Endy finished below league average in blocks, league average in framing, above league average bordering on elite for pop time and caught stealing. We watched him struggle to connect with some pitchers while others ate up his enthusiasm and clicked.

One thing that really wasn’t there for Endy though, the bat. The bat in 2022 spanned 3 levels and saw him hit .323 with a .986 OPS over 531 plate appearances.

After taking the reigns behind the plate, the bat went south, and once he reached a place of being comfortable in AAA, he started clicking a bit, just in time to get the call to Pittsburgh where once again he spent so much of his focus and energy on catching the bat was almost non-existent.

I have it on pretty solid sourcing that the team was almost entirely unconcerned with his bat, favoring instead to have him work tirelessly on improving behind the dish, which to his credit, he did finally, earning the trust of Mitch Keller his only real hold out.

Next year, while he will still need to improve as a backstop, his main focus will need to flip to becoming an offensive threat again.

Henry Davis

A 1:1 selection. A Catcher. A hitter. Davis was perceived to be the answer before he did a damn thing as a professional. Injuries slowed his progression as hand injuries kept him from catching as much as you’d like, in fact they kept him from doing anything really.

In 2022 Davis would finally be handed the reigns and while he was plenty good for a team like Altoona, his technique left a lot to be desired.

Receiving the ball didn’t look clean, his set up left him lunging for balls and reaching strikes into called balls. Poor form actually almost caused him to have to go on the IL again due to exposing his throwing hand dangerously. In fact, he was a victim of a foul ball off his throwing hand in one of his two MLB opportunities behind the dish this year and eventually the hand injury sent him to the IL.

Right field has been less then a pleasant experience too, but a calculated risk was taken that he could hurt the team less learning RF on the fly than he could at catcher.

Now, maybe injury is really the root of all this. The Pirates claim they’re going to give him an opportunity to catch next year, and I guess the question will be, how much of an opportunity?

We have next to nothing to go on. Even his college teammate has talked to the lack of training that took place at Louisville to grow as a catcher, so we can’t really even look back to college.

Back to the Endy conversation, Henry has to face his development too. To take meaningful innings back there, he’ll have to at least approach Endy defensively, and quite frankly, the Pirates might decide the bat is too important to put back there, although he hasn’t really shown that yet either.

Jason Delay

He was about 2 days from retiring from the game, unable to make the Pirates even as they started 2 journeymen catchers with very little pedigree. As luck, or lack thereof would have it, injury forced the Pirates to recall the DFA’d catcher and he didn’t look back.

Framing is really where he excels clocking in at the 75th percentile of the league, but not touching Endy on the other categories.

A bat is hardly ever a concern for an MLB backup catcher, but .251 with a .666 OPS isn’t disqualifying in any way shape or form. I’d put it this way, if the starter were an offensively explosive and defensively deficient player, he’s exactly what you’d want back there. If it were flipped, you’d probably prefer a backup who could hit first and defend later.

Conclusion

Obviously we’re in wait and see territory here a bit. That said, as dangerous and stupid as it can be, I’ll make some assumptions.

Henry has a long way to go to catch Endy defensively, doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t, just means Endy is already to where you’d expect a healthy Davis to be, providing he’s capable of it.

All three are dirt cheap and collectively it’d be hard to upgrade and still allow room for further development which for the next half decade minimally they can’t afford to take a pass on.

If Henry isn’t going to show he can handle the backup duties this year, meaning he needs to be at least close to as good as Jason Delay behind the dish, a position and skill set he’s singularly focused on for the best part of a decade, the Pirates can’t afford to pretend it’s ok. In fact, to string this out can only hurt Henry’s overall development.

It’s important to remember, part of the reason veteran starters are interested in signing with the Pirates is Oscar Marin’s increasing reputation for helping guys find what’s been missing, AND the Pirates up until this point insistence on rostering a catcher who is universally seen as one of the best in baseball defensively. The likelihood of them changing their mind on this is very low, but it does speak to why Jason Delay isn’t likely going anywhere, this year anyway.

This isn’t about the Pirates “not giving Henry a chance” as much as injury stunting him, his bat mattering and Endy’s emergence as at the very least a league average defender.

Over the course of 2024, Endy will not be given the same grace he was given in 2023. In other words, improving behind the dish is a welcome thing, but he was a top prospect for his bat, and that aspect must emerge or the Pirates may very well not yet have a catcher. Failing to make one of these two the perennial starter would be a rather large indictment of the system and talent identification teams.

What they do with Henry or Endy long term is a different discussion, but behind the plate make no mistake, this season is huge.

Minor League News And Brews: Indianapolis Indians 2023 Recap Show

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-iaaqk-14cd91b

Craig is joined by Jack McMullen from the Indianapolis Indians to discuss their 2023 Season: including players that surprised, ones that didn’t get the necessary attention and a trio of pitchers, who are very important to the future of the Big League Club. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

This Pirates Offseason Could Go a Number of Ways, for a Number of Reasons

10-13-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

As we celebrate the anniversary of arguably the greatest homerun ever hit in a World Series by Bill Mazeroski back in 1960 the Pirates seem poised to once again get into the dance.

The game has of course considerably changed in the 63 years since that historic moment. You no longer need to win a season long marathon straight up to go to the series, today you need only have a better record than 8 teams in your league and anything can happen.

Enter Joe Block, he’s always good for these obscure sets of stats that soften the edges on Pirates accomplishments, in this case, he’s just pointing out the obvious but it really got me thinking.

It’s all true of course, the Pirates only finished with 8 fewer wins than the Danger Noodles, but man that last line “Young Bucs getting close”, well, I can think of nothing worse for this management team to have echoing through their heads as they enter the offseason.

I mean nothing against Joe here, he’s just trying to illustrate how close this team was/is to being one of the upstarts with a shot at kicking the big boys in the shins from the Wild Card spot, but as a fan, man I don’t want my team thinking like that, I want you hoping you’ve built a team that you feel deserves to be there, has a legit shot at winning it.

Maybe that’s not fair to expect entering 2024 with what will assuredly still be a very young team, but I’m just being straight here. If you shoot for a goal like just getting in you might as well be PennDOT, cause you’ll be filling the same pot holes every friggin’ year.

All that said, this team has to walk a line this year don’t they?

They have a ton of young players, and bluntly, upgrading positionally over many of them wouldn’t be all that challenging, but that kinda defeats the purpose of rebuilding in the first place doesn’t it?

Like, let’s look at center field. This is a better team if they play Reynolds in Left, Jack in Right, even if he platoons with a righty, and they went out and got a Center fielder like Michael Taylor. Taylor isn’t a project, he’s also not a great player. He’s a really solid defender, world class even, and he can hit a little, even for power with 21 this year.

Is he an answer for the next few years? Well, at 32 maybe not, but you can’t tell me that wouldn’t really improve the outfield both defensively and offensively. A good thing if your goal is the playoffs right?

I don’t even think he’d break the bank. Yes, that means he’s Bob Nutting-able people.

But that does ensure someone else doesn’t get at bats. It ensures Jack doesn’t continue to grow as a CF, Bae too, and hey, maybe you feel they’ve already gotten as good as they ever will out there, ok, you still have the at bat situation because where the hell is Henry Davis going to play?

He has to play right? I mean, you could of course start him in AAA, but don’t you kinda want to just let him use 2023 to go through the growing pains and understand what he is?

That’s one position.

First base has to be filled primarily because what exists to play there is either underwhelming, and provably so like Conner Joe or untested like Jared Triolo. Don’t get me wrong, both are fine players, but Joe is what he is, a barely above average ball player with the right mix of positional flexibility and a good plate approach. At his age though, he isn’t becoming more than that.

Jared could, but following our premise of improving, they really should go get something I’d think.

Starting pitchers that could help are all over the place for the Pirates. Think you know right now what Ortiz, Contreras, Priester, Jones, Solometo, Skenes, Oviedo, Wolf or anyone else you want to count are? I’ll send you back to 2021 Mitch Keller and show you why you don’t.

We all have opinions, who’s the prospect who’ll click who isn’t, but you, me, scouts, the team, they don’t KNOW about any of them.

So of course you have to go get a couple starters to go with Keller and likely Oviedo. How do you balance “going for it” with leaving room for one of that laundry list to earn a shot? Do you just go get 3 and let injury or total blow up performances provide opportunity? Do you just get 1 and commit to going younger? 2 like I suggested?

This offseason could go just about a million different directions folks. We have all almost come together as one to shout the obvious needs at 1B and SP, but maybe we’re not thinking of this the right way.

Maybe second base play in 2023 didn’t show us that one of these kids will take it next year, and instead showed us none of these kids are ready to take it and we need to go fill it professionally.

Even if that makes the team better in 2024, is that the smart way to approach it? Or as with Davis, would we be better letting the applicants keep applying for the job.

The interesting thing this offseason to me is one way or another, we’re going to see this Spring what Ben Cherington considers good enough to be in the playoffs. He set the goal, and now his results will have to match that.

When you think about it that way, you could see how maybe a position like second base could be thought of differently by a GM putting his name on this thing.

I see a ton of conversations stopped before they get started because commenter A is dumb for suggesting they get someone to play position B. The social media pile on starts and squash goes the idea.

For me, I think ultimately we’ll all be close to right, as they’ll address 1B, SP and DH in fairly predictable ways, but I’ll view everything through the prism of this GM saying he and this franchise will actively be shooting for the playoffs next year, because an 8 game improvement shouldn’t be enough to satisfy a management team that is truly shooting for that goal. And doing the bare minimum this offseason would to me smell an awful lot like they’re hoping that improvement comes organically.

Well, no matter how many times you pour it, a quart is never going to fill a gallon jug, so if they do decide the kids are going to get them to their goal, I’m still holding this GM to his word he was shooting his shot to accomplish his goal.

Hitting the mark won’t be about Bob Nutting next year, it’ll be about Ben Cherington. What he needs to even overdo what most of us think they will is easily there. It won’t even touch the team’s high water mark historically.

2024 is about this GM’s eye for the product he’s placed on the field. Everything that has been impossible to evaluate since 2020 will spend all year under the microscope. Big year in a lot of ways, and the excitement starts 5 days after the World Series. Buckle up.

Hump Day Pirates Q&A

10-11-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Wow, yinz didn’t disappoint, that’s a ton of questions.

Question 1

Who are the best trade chips to acquire a SP or 1B that is not a dumpster dive? – Brian Croasman

It’s funny Brian, I could make a pretty strong case that when acquired, both Jose Quintana and Tyler Anderson were dumpster dives. Hell I could go back even farther and say JA Happ was actually a dumpster dive way back in 2015. Lord knows everyone thought Vince Velasquez was trash as a starting option.

What acquisitions become is often not what they’re perceived to be when the deal is struck. A team sees something in a guy they think they can help bring to the forefront and sometimes they’re right, sometimes they aren’t.

For first base, there isn’t much that really piques my interest. Max Muncy has a 14 million dollar club option for 2024 and becomes a free agent in 2025, I suppose it’s possible the Dodgers might feel they can move on from him, but I’m not sure how plausible it would be to extend him beyond next year. The other flyer I’d take here is Seth Brown from Oakland. He’s entering his first year of arb, which likely puts him out of the A’s target window for this build. He can play the outfield, or first base. He’s still a bit of a project though, even as he’s shown some good pop. The glove is questionable and so are the contact numbers.

Again, define dumpster dive. Cause if they were to get a guy like Brown, it would assuredly be seen as such by more than a few.

Michael Wacha has a 16 million dollar club option in San Diego, and they’re vocally trying to cut payroll, that might be someone who you could target, but again, you’d want to be confident you could potentially extend him I’d imagine. All of these option eligible players though, those decisions must be made 5 days after the World Series and flatly, it’s easier to just move on in many cases.

Dylan Cease is probably the sexiest with 2 years of control remaining, but Trevor Rogers from the pitching rich Marlins who was injured much of 2023 with various arm ailments and is entering arbitration for the first time might be affordable for a team looking to add talent offensively. Might have to give up something that hurts to pull either of these off.

Question 2

If you work Saturdays does that make Thursday hump day? Can we end the post season early and start the offseason? Also Yariel Rodriguez would be awesome right? – Adam Yarkovsky

You mean Yariel Rodriguez the Cuban Star pitcher that every MLB team flocked to see throw in a tryout setting?

He was a starter in Cuba, then a bullpen arm in Japan, last year, he didn’t pitch and just last week he was released from his Japanese contract. I’ve seen estimates of 5 years 50-70 million, which if he’s a starter is a bargain, if he’s a bullpen arm, not so much.

That said, the stuff appears to be there, still hitting almost 97 on the gun, still spinning it up there at elite levels. It’s a risk, but it could be a worthy one and nothing to dislike about having another Cuban around for Oviedo to pal with.

Question 3

Who will get his shot 1st Skenes or Jones? – Casey Hurcula

Oh, so much has to happen to understand this fully. Let’s say the Pirates go get 2 starters, I personally think that’s what they need, it would leave 1 open spot in the rotation. Now that open spot will likely go to a Contreras, Ortiz, Priester type, and from there it really becomes about who impresses the most in the minors, who stays healthy, all that jazz.

Jones is probably closer, but let’s just be real, Skenes has superior stuff to everyone in the system. That doesn’t mean Skenes is the best or most developed “pitcher”, but it does mean if the team is betting on a rookie, I bet they choose Jones if only because he MUST be protected from the rule 5 in 2025, so might as well just get the ball rolling with him.

Question 4

If we trade young players for veterans who would you make available? – Mike Teti

Honestly, Termarr and Skenes might be my only untouchables. I mean, if you truly felt Henry and Endy were interchangeable behind the dish (I don’t) I’d suggest one of them. I just don’t think anyone else really rises to the level of an absolutely not designation.

Question 5

Best guess on 2024 catcher starts: – Robert Bishop

I hear what the Pirates have said about Henry, frankly I just don’t buy it. I think this is a passionate kid, who’s passionate about his want to be a catcher. Thing is he’s more passionate about winning baseball games and they’ll all come to figure it out together. Endy will carry the starting workload and Delay will carry the rest is where I’ll sit until proven wrong. Endy showed me enough in 2023 back there to not believe Henry can jump him.

Question 6

You have watched soooo many bad baseball games over the last 4 seasons. How excited are you for the next season? – Shaun Conley

I’m very excited Shaun. It’ll be the first time I’ve written/talked about/covered, whatever you believe me to be doing, where I don’t have to constantly say losing was expected. Honestly, I don’t even know how I’ll do it.

I’ll approach it from the same mindset I always have. Try to be fair, try to make people understand why trading the farm for Juan Soto at the deadline probably isn’t smart, you know.

First and foremost though, I’m a fan, and I’ve been watching this team since 1986 with any level of understanding. I’m just excited to see some good ball, and know that next time the Steelers kickoff, my Buccos should still be a worthy topic of conversation.

I love this team, and this city. A winning baseball team is good for everyone, and I can’t wait to cover it, watch it, talk to other fans in the seats or on my show all year long. I can’t tell you how many times Craig and I talked about this time in the future since we launched this site.

Question 7

I often hear the saying, “The Pirates have to get it right”. While that’s true, even if no one at 2B is stepping up in our eyes, shouldn’t the coaches have a decent idea after 4 years who they prefer going forward? I sense a reluctance to make trades. That concerns me more. – KG_55VFTG Graves

I’m not sure who you sense that from Graves. It probably wasn’t Ben Cherington, he was pretty clear he was open to it as a method of getting more talent in here. Up until now, I’m not sure they really had enough information to make a decision.

Now, they probably do have that 4 years you speak of. But can you say right now Peguero, Gonzales, Triolo or Bae have won? Knowing you, of course not, because you can’t say yes honestly. Balance that with the value of any one of them is limited because of that knowledge base being thin.

I kinda go back to basics. They need arms and bats. Take the positions away for a minute, do they have 9 bats we’re sure about? Man, I don’t know, but I can honestly say I’m not sure I can get to feeling they’ve been reluctant quite yet.

Bluntly, we fans are frustrated because there are too many options and we see it as tradable. I can see why they want to be sure before they decide which ones they can live without.

Question 8

Looks like Andujar and Brubaker are gone? – Mark Graham

Somebody was listening to Bucs in the Basement. Andujar I personally felt was going to be non-tendered long before he was called back up in 2023. It’s pretty simple, there just isn’t a roster spot for 2 DH only players, and try as you might, that’s what the Pirates see him as. Brubaker though, I dunno, he’ll be cheap and at some point in 2024 he’ll recover and pitch. I think he’ll survive.

Question 9

Will the Pirates be able to land any of the incoming Foreign FA? – MZylinski

I can say they’re more involved than they have been in recent years. Internationally the Pirates tend to scout well and we’ll see how it shakes out but at least they’re going to the dance. This question could have been about any free agent and my answer would largely be the same. Until you get to the point where you understand all the needs of the other clubs, it’s really hard to start forecasting this stuff out.

Question 10

Any idea what the Pirates could use the rest of their allocated International money on? – James Littleton

According to John Dreker at Pirates Prospects they are in on a couple outfielders and should have no trouble spending their remaining 900K.

Question 11

With expectations that the Pirates will at least contend for a Wildcard playoff berth next year, do you think Manager Derek Shelton will have a short leash if the team gets off to a bad start? – Zach Williams

Honestly, no.

I just don’t see them making coaching moves in season, at least not in 2024. Now, I will say his expectations should be raised drastically but none that are going to cause an execution mid-season.

2024 should be the first time Shelton was handed a roster his bosses believe SHOULD be a playoff team, and if he fails to accomplish that goal, then I think we can talk about moving on. The threshold for fans to be ready and team executives don’t often lineup.

Question 12

Seems like there was at least rumors of interest from both sides of brining back Carlos Santana. Is this the right move for the club or do they need to spend up a bit to get more of a true power bat at first? – 412_Sports_Guy

This to me boils down to whether they feel they have an internal option coming. For instance, lets say they believe the answer in 2025 could be Triolo, Gorski, or Nunez. If that’s the case, sure, a one year stopgap is fine. If they don’t see anyone, and won’t move anyone, then honestly, I hate it. Fix the position for a few years instead would be my preferred path, problem is, that’s just not there on the free agency board. I’ve recently heard Santana described as “The Cutch for the Latin players” and I think that makes some sense, but he has to have something left in the tank too.

Question 13

What’s your most reasonable prediction and what’s your most outlandish, pie in the sky prediction for this team and its players? – PGHPirateQueen

Reasonable prediction is that they crack open the window and make a wild card appearance in 2024. Pie in the sky, Skenes and Termarr both get here and this team arrives early and threatens the division.

Question 14

According to Ben Cherington, the plan for Henry Davis is for him to concentrate on catching this off-season. That’s all well and good, but his defense in RF remains an issue too. Should we be prepared for Davis to start ’24 in AAA? – KG_55VFTG Graves

This question is a perfect reflection of my biggest concern with stringing Henry along as a catcher. It’s certainly possible Graves, but I legitimately wonder how long they could do it. The bat is likely beyond AAA, and it feels like they need to have that understanding going into it. His bat is likely to force itself into the lineup, so it stands to reason you should have a realistic position for him to play. Nailed this one Graves, I’m more worried about this situation than any other of the young position players.

Question 15

Do you think Cutch will be back with the Pirates? – Nicole Chewning

Yes. I always did, and as soon as they decided to open this door it was clear both sides knew what screwing this up would do to this fanbase and his relationship to the club. Cutch is a media savvy player, so when he puts up on Instagram “see you next year” it’s not an accident. This will get done, and as I wrote last week, it should probably be his last.

Question 16

Sure, many of us have read whatever hubris there is about the Pirates interest in Yamamoto. I think the Bucs will get priced out even if interest is legit. In a dart toss in back of my mind, what are your thoughts on a possible one year offer to say…. Trevor Bauer? 🤷🏼‍♂️

To me, he’s in that gray area. Not a certain POS like Vazquez. Not an apparent POS like Julio Urias. He’s more of an individual case by case basis where someone truly would have to meander thru he said/she said leaks to the media and make their own individual decision.

Almost the entire fanbase loathes/dislikes Nutting already. So the PR hit would not be as strong as in many cities. I “think” many may fall in line w/my opinions. Nutting hasn’t shown me anything and Bauer “may” be a POS. But…. it’d show us Nutting willing to take chances TO WIN and Bauer very well could help the cause. He still hasn’t reached his mid-30’s.

Long as nothing illegal occurs, I don’t care what someone does in their sexcapades. And this….this is a gray area case IMO. – Brian Altman

First of all Brian, thanks for asking and putting yourself out there. We live in a day and age where even asking the question for some will label you some kind of way.

I too saw all the debunking of one of his accusers, and as I understand it there are more out there. I’m not deciding what he is or trying him here, just noting I don’t believe the book is closed on all of it.

We also can’t forget, he was always kinda of an asshole. Stirring up crap all over the league and being a general thorn in the side of MLB.

If indeed he is poised for a comeback, I guess I’d be fine with the Pirates tossing a chip in the pot.

As to all the Bob and PR stuff, man Brian all I can say is it can always get worse. For instance, you probably never liked Vladimir Putin, but today I’d bet you dislike him a bit more.

Signings are very rarely for PR purposes, especially costly or risky ones.

Pirates Impending Arbitrations Decisions

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-sm4ds-14c9b5b

Craig and Chris begin the show with some friendly banter about the MLB Playoffs, before getting down to business to discuss the Pirates players that are eligible for arbitration in 2024. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Outside Looking In

10-9-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

If the Pirates execute this off season, and get at least a little more lucky on the injury front in 2024, good shot the Pirates will at least get a taste of post season ball. I know that’s not the prevailing thought from the “this is never gonna work” camp, but honestly, they aren’t watching like you are, so I value their opinion almost as much as I’d value my 10 year old nephew’s views on inter-office relations in the work place.

Succeed or fail, the playoffs are in sight, and reach next year.

That said, if you’ve watched at all as the post season has rolled along, boy, it’s not a one game play in, but a 3 game series isn’t all that much longer.

Getting in is an ok goal for 2024, but they have to set their sites on the division in 2025.

1. You Know, Players Do Improve, Right?

I always knew this time was coming. I knew we’d get to the point where most of the roster was made up of rookies and second year players and fans would largely feel underwhelmed by the overall roster it created.

Thing is though, there’s a difference between a guy like Henry Davis putting together rather paltry numbers in limited MLB playing time and a guy like Michael Chavis doing the same. It’s the difference in their ceilings.

Folks, that’s what there is to be excited about, most of this roster hasn’t even sniffed their ceiling.

That was the point of this entire thing. Amass talent, and when some of them get close you loosen your discriminating restrictions on call ups a bit so you can get as much of the rookie beaten out of the talent as possible at one time.

This Spring, we’ll look for who improved over the off-season, and if players regress, it’ll open a hole for the next in progression.

Bottom line, what you see stats wise right now, is not what you should expect in 2024 because in theory the arrow is at least capable of pointing up for quite some time.

2. Do We Like the New Playoff Format?

I’m not so sure.

I like the increased field if only because at some point the Pirates are the exact type of team it’ll benefit, but overall, there are some things I just haven’t been able to force myself to accept.

A 3 game series is better than a 1 game wild card by leaps and bounds, but I don’t think it’s fair to a team like Milwaukee that won their division. There has to be in my mind some kind of advantage gained for winning a division and I’m not saying Milwaukee was going to beat any of the teams who got in, but a division winner to me deserves a full series, even 5 games to be dispatched.

That said, I understand that the baseball season is already insanely long, I’m not looking to have the World Series played at neutral sites because it’s almost Christmas, but when your season is 162 games, it simply has to mean something more than 2 losses gets you bounced.

One thing I do think is a positive though, smaller markets by in large try to open windows and earn an appearance, and this playoff set up could change what used to be 3 year windows into 4 or 5. The way I see it, you’ll likely get a shot at a bite at the apple earlier than you would have and maybe later too. One you likely wouldn’t have gotten on either end. So it could take these “windows” and stretch the plausibility out to half a decade when done well for some teams.

The best fix is to fix the game, and over time maybe my feelings on this setup will change, but for now, I guess I just don’t see enough benefit for regular season success.

At least if a top seed gets bounced in the NHL, they had to lose a 7 game series to the 8th seed. The Rays won 99 games and got bounced after two losses in the playoffs.

I’m also not sure if sitting around for a week is best for the teams who earned a bye. The Braves, Dodgers, Orioles and Astros all sat around for a week trying to stay sharp and ready to compete and all 4 looked like they hadn’t played in a week when they hit the field.

Again, I don’t hate it, cause at some point this is likely to help my Pirates, but I don’t think it’s executed in an ideal fashion.

3. Dark Horse Extension Candidate

This is sure to be taken badly by some, but refer to point 1 and keep in mind if a team like this waits to be 100% sure before trying to lock talent in, chances are they can’t afford the assurance that this is indeed a player.

Jack Suwinski.

OK, got all your yelling out of the way?

Let me start here, Jack has improved throughout the course of 2022 and 2023. Nearly every statistical category took a nice upward tick year to year.

45 homeruns in 906 plate appearances is the sexy stat, and folks it’s also the expensive stat. This guy is talked about like a player who barely deserves to play, and bluntly, for large swaths of the season he looked like a guy who barely deserved to play.

All I can say here is if you just let him play 2024 on the last year of his rookie deal, and he does even what he did in 2023, which of course you’d hope he’d do better, his 2025 Arb number will probably knock some sense into the team and the fan base, cause this kid will get PAID.

If I’m the Pirates I approach him this offseason and try to get him interested in a 6-7 year deal that buys into his free agency and avoids the arbitration process to control costs. This isn’t instead of someone else, for instance if they extend Keller they certainly could still do this and vice versa.

I understand the fear of locking down a Tabata or Polanco, but without risk this team will simply not keep this thing together in any meaningful way and maybe we forget it’s also why we got so much time with Marte.

Look at how hard the Reynolds extension was. I can honestly say had they gone through that process before 2022 when they signed the 2 year extension to avoid arbitration hearings they’d have gotten it done cheaper, and never would have had to deal with the public scrutiny the situation caused.

Develop a top of the rotation starter, you best lock them up, same goes for a slugger, especially on a team that just finished next to last in the NL in Homers.

4. What if Keeping Andy Haines is Wrong?

I mean, I think I’ve made very clear I think it is, but what does it mean to the club if they’re wrong?

It could stunt development, it could cause the Pirates to dump a talent that thrives elsewhere, but most important to me, it could prevent the Pirates from prying open a playoff competitive season.

That’s the risk. Say what you want, this club has decided they’re smarter than we are and whether we agree or not we’ll enter 2024 waiting for either Haines to prove us wrong or right.

That’s really what frustrates a fan base like this. Some of us accepted long ago how long this was going to take, and how much pain we’d absorb on the way there, how hard the job is even if everything is done well, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to sell those of us who have on ignoring 2 years of evidence that the Pirates offensive approach at the very least doesn’t maximize the talent on the roster.

None of us thought there was a competitive collection of talent on the 2022 team, but we also watched night after night as they underperformed even what we were watching. 2023 was much of the same, with more talent.

As we discussed earlier in this very piece the youth needs to improve and creep closer to the ceiling in development, so underperforming based on the talent involved doesn’t exactly instill us with hope.

Many of you feel the same about Derek Shelton, and I have a list of things I don’t like that he does too, but for me, Haines is his biggest and most visible noose that will surely be used to hang him should this wind up being a 3rd season in a row of finishing in the bottom of the league at the plate.

5. Termarr Has a Shot

Next year, we’ll enter the season with an all out battle for playing time at second base. A ton of players will be involved and they’ll probably keep fighting into the season. That’s healthy, but someone better jump up and take it pretty early on or Termarr Johnson is going to start making his case.

He’ll likely start in AA Altoona, but if he hits like he did in 2023, it’s going to be very hard to avoid giving him a crack at jumping those competitors.

One thing this team is lacking is superstar talent. Keller could get there, Reynolds is probably someone who will attend his fair share of All Star Games but superstar, maybe not. Cruz has that potential, but it’s not a lock.

When you have one ready, and your team is actively looking to get somewhere in that calendar year, most of the manipulation crap goes out the window. It’s the same reason a guy like Paul Skenes has a real shot to make it next year, to really get into the next step territory, it’s gonna take star power, and when it makes itself apparent and nobody on the team is blocking them, I think you’ll see them take some risks here on call ups looking for a spark.

In this same spirit, I think this is why we could see some pitchers get a call that normally wouldn’t. Even if the starting rotation is killing it, should the team be in the race, I think we could see a guy like Jared Jones brought up and asked to start in the pen, maybe even an Anthony Solometo. When you flip the switch to go, it changes the way you think about your development system. Now it’s feeding the beast as opposed to hoping you pile them all together and create a beast.

To me, Termarr and his natural contact skills might just be that guy, but he and all of his top of the prospect ranking teammates should be in play. From here on out the goal has to be squeezing every drop of talent you can out of everyone, and you don’t worry about a contract in 2031 when you’re trying to win in 2024.

What’s McCutchen’s Role Here in 2024?

10-7-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

There are things you’re not supposed to do as a fan.

You’re never supposed to admit that guys like Sidney Crosby are no longer capable of doing some things they did with ease in their 20’s. When their contract comes up and they still want to play, you’re not supposed to want the team to even entertain letting that happen elsewhere.

You’re not supposed to look at Andrew McCutchen and talk to his ability being limited to primarily DH. You’re certainly not supposed to mention that’s not exactly ideal for how this roster is shaping up.

Yeah, yeah, all the stuff you’re yelling at the screen are true too. He is an icon. This team made a deal with him and it’s very very likely he’s coming back. Both sides should and do want this. Hey, I do too!

I knew when he came back last year he wasn’t going to be MVP Cutch, we all did, but I think it’s fair to say, I did expect him to play in the outfield 15 times or so, you know, when you wanna rest a guy or you want to work in a different bat here and there. That simple fact, he has a bat you want to see play, but it has to be in this one spot makes this roster hard to put together, especially if you see Cutch getting over 350 at bats or so.

He only had 390 at bats in 2023, so I’m not trying to act like he’s just never gonna play, I’m just saying they may need to think about working in a lefty DH at times. If they choose to keep a guy like Andujar around, he really isn’t more than a DH and emergency level capable corner outfielder. That would make two spots taken up for really no more than a half to three-quarter workload. I can’t see it.

I’ve kinda done this before, but folks you get 13 position players. OK, you can have more, but let’s just say at some point when you need the arms 13 is where it’ll settle in to.

Real quick,
The Locks (5)
Bryan Reynolds LF, CF, DH
Jack Suwinski CF, LF, RF, DH
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Oneil Cruz SS, DH
Endy Rodriguez C

Almost For Sure (5)
Liover Peguero 2B, SS (SS is why he’s almost for sure)
Jared Triolo 3B, 2B, 1B (Needing all three of those positions is why he is likely in)
Henry Davis C, RF, DH (The bat makes teaching him to catch in AAA stupid and he’s a big reason I think Cutch will need to sacrifice some at bats)
Conner Joe LF, RF, 1B (You can question his value, but the Pirates gave him 4th most ABs on the club, he’ll be here)
Jason Delay C (He’ll be the backup catcher, even if Henry takes off back there)

Signings (2)
First Baseman – You don’t need the name to know they have to fill it and leave a spot.
Andrew McCutchen DH – He walks back in cause he was always going to.

In a Fight for 1 Spot
Miguel Andujar DH, LF, RF (you can use him in the OF, but you’d really prefer to have a hole at DH, we’ll know by December on this one as they’ll have to tender him to keep him)
Joshua Palacios OF (Great pinch hitter, unexpected and timely pop, decent defender and gives you the lefty platoon for the OF)
Nick Gonzales 2B, SS, 3B (This one might come down to Nick having to outplay Jared Triolo and even then, he’ll never match his glove)
Ji-hwan Bae CF, 2B (The backup CF won’t be enough, he has to win it outright I believe, Palacios, Jack and Reynolds all have the ability to play out there in relief, and defensively he’s behind the competition at 2B)

My guess is out of these 4, you cringed a time or two about either losing them or starting them in AAA.

Andrew McCutchen has to come back, his return to the team meant a lot to him, the room and the fans. To the credit to everyone involved they communicated before last season that they all understood to start this conversation is to commit to not screwing it up.

All that said, this likely has last hurrah written all over it, and if that’s not where Cutch’s head is, the Pirates are going to have an honest to god baseball problem on their hands because I can’t see this continuing into 2025.

In 2024, first, my hope would be that Andrew can play a little more outfield. Nothing crazy, but if he can take on 15-20 games out there, it makes a lot of other things fall together. If he can’t, and he’s just a DH, I personally can’t roster Miguel Andujar. It was cute with 28 roster spots, but with 26, I can’t have two DH/maybe we can play them types.

This also presumes Cutch and a first baseman, let’s call him Sarlos Cantana, represents all they bring in.

What if they decide they need a vet SS backup with Cruz having some questions pre-injury? I find this unlikely because if defense is your main concern there, and it likely would be, you have Williams in the minors you could go to.

They could ultimately want to make all the kids fight over 2B in the minors and go outside to up the baseline there a bit.

How about a better corner outfielder or a top notch centerfielder, what happens then?

If you can’t look at this roster and see why Andrew McCutchen should be welcomed back, but encouraged not to linger, you’re probably looking with your heart.

He has a role, it’s 250-350 at bats in 2024.

I’ll go a step further, if by the end of 2024 Andrew McCutchen is even seen as the 5th best hitter on the team this whole thing is in a heap of trouble, especially considering we’re starting out with him firmly in the top 5 as we speak.

Like it or don’t, Andrew is now a legend that needs pushed aside as the season plays out and it’s on the development team to ensure DH doesn’t become the only place to stick some of these prospects we’re still messing around with defensively like Henry Davis.

Ask yourself, if Andrew McCutchen had decided 2023 was it, would you be trying to fill his position in free agency or would you be campaigning for one of those 4 fighting for a spot? Maybe you would want to go outside, truth is if you did, wouldn’t you want someone who can help you in the field too? Maybe a bit more power? Maybe some more average? From a DH, probably, IF your honest.

McCutchen’s name tends to make that last part hard.

Because I honestly want him back, the fan in me can’t even mentally process that falling through, but the roster builder in me, yeah, I’ve told that guy to shut up more than once thinking about this.

Minor League News And Brews: Headlines From The Pirates System

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-c8p6b-14c44ea

Craig closes the book on Jon Nunnally, and discusses the Pirates Prospects in the the Arizona Fall League; along with the purpose of this developmental league and the new rules changes that are being tested out. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Paul Skenes Should….

10-5-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

When I say something like…

Paul Skenes won’t be on the opening day roster for Pittsburgh, it’s immediately met with vitriol.

Overt anger about how cheap they are, how dumb they are, how they don’t want to win is quick to follow.

Listen, there’s a couple different things going on here. First, the Pirates have created an environment that sends people to the edge long before they’ve bothered thinking on a thing for more than a minute. Second, there is an overriding expectation that Paul being one of the five best starters in the organization on opening day is a given.

My point is really more about what I think the Pirates should do in the offseason than it is about Paul Skenes. See, I can’t make two things connect.

I can’t make Ben Cherington’s comments that the team will look to be a playoff team next year jive with purposefully starting a rookie in the rotation. Yes, even that rookie. We’re talking about a kid who just threw 6.2 innings in the minor leagues in 2023. Well, let me rephrase that a bit, I can’t square Ben Cherington TRUSTING that a rookie, even this rookie will be ready to carry the weight expected of him without bringing in options, and if you bring in options, reality is, those options are gonna play, at least for a little.

Much of the thought we should just blow past all that type of stuff and start him comes from scouts saying “he could pitch in MLB right now”, and folks, he surely could, but not likely as a starter. This kid’s arm and offerings are elite, but to be a starter he’ll need to clean some stuff up, stretch himself out a bit, and more than anything just learn.

I guess the confusion is at least partially my fault. Just simply saying he won’t be on the opening day roster leaves a ton of room for the why aspect.

So let’s do the why’s right?

Stephen Strasburg is arguably the highest touted starting pitcher drafted in the modern era. He was selected in 2009 and then after 55.1 innings in AAA he was called up to Washington in 2010, only to return to the minors for rehab assignments for the duration of his career. Injuries aside, Strasburg is a great comp for Skenes.

So, quickly is certainly on the table, but it’s fair to say the pedigree is rare air, and it’s also fair to say Skenes is at least supposed to be in that air.

Gerrit Cole another great comp for Skenes was drafted 1:1 by your Pittsburgh Pirates in the thick of climbing into relevance back in 2011 and he spent all of 2012 in the minors then made the jump in June of 2013. Gerrit put in 200 innings in the minors before being promoted.

Strasburg and Cole were both seen as incredible, close to ready talents, but both franchises were in completely different spots too. Strasburg was called up to a team that lost 93 games the year before and was one of the first really big pieces of the new look team that would eventually win. Cole was added to a team in 2013 as we discussed, but he was left in the minors during 2012 that saw the Pirates “epic collapse” finishing with 83 losses.

Sometimes the team’s place in the world is a factor. Your Pirates just finished a season in which they worked their record to 76-86, close enough to think adding a big talent could make a difference, but also close enough to feel they can affordably go out on the market or make some deals and move the ball forward without forcing the issue with a pitcher they feel could shoulder the burden. That’s the optimal word here folks, “could”.

None of this even mentions that the Pirates have some other guys, also with some degree of expectation who should be in line to play a role in this rotation. Even if they too should not be counted on to start from the jump.

Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo will both start in the rotation, then the team will very likely bring in 1 or 2 starting pitching options. One of those will likely be an honest shot at a guy who will stay there all year, maybe a couple of years. One of those will almost be there with the hope they get shoved out of the way or into the bullpen. And finally, they’ll leave an open spot.

Could that be Skenes? Sure. But isn’t it more likely it’s Priester, Jared Jones, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras?

At the end of the day, I’d simply remind you that this is a prospect. A truly highly evolved prospect. A truly likely to succeed prospect. Above all, an unproven entity, one that could very well wind up being the call up that takes this from attempt to get into the dance and turns it into got into the dance, but none of that should prompt a team supposedly looking to tip the scale over into winning territory next season, you can’t rely on maybe.

Until the day Skenes is called up he’ll be the Pirates top pitching prospect, but it doesn’t automatically make him the closest. Prospect rankings are more about projecting their MLB career outcome as opposed to projecting when they’ll get here.

Moral of the story, try not to join a camp on this and just let it play out. This team has no reason to delay this player beyond getting the extra year of team control and that barely gets you to May. If he’s good enough, this problem will work itself out quickly. If the guys they bring in make it unnecessary to force him up, hey, that probably works too.

Let’s for once let the prospect tell us the story of what their timeline should be, you know, instead of our collective impatience.